EURUSD Technical Analysis: ECB to hold rates steady, traders focus on US NFP and CPIGBPUSD Technical Analysis: Focus on key UK and US data this week for the next directionDubai Will Host Its First-Ever Trading Festival alongside iFX EXPOMarket outlook for the week of 15th-19th DecemberUSD/CAD keeps on falling on divergent market pricing: focus on Canada CPI and US NFP nowGold approaches record highs ahead of key US data: here's how it's likely to reactYen takes the lead as USD/JPY drops to 155.00 ahead of key US data. What's next?FX option expiries for 15 December 10am New York cutS&P 500 Trade Idea for Prop Traders TodayWhat are the main events for today?It's been kind of a synthetic Sunday in the European session with no data releases and very limited newsflow. The most notable mover has been the Japanese Yen.The currency appreciated on the back of better than expected Tankan data and some constructive BoJ commentary overnight. The rate hike odds increased to 83%.The market is now sure that the BoJ is going to deliver a 25 bps rate hike at this week’s monetary policy decision but it’s not expecting the central bank to outhawk the current pricing, which sees the BoJ tightening by 67 bps by the end of next year. The JPY will likely be driven more by the US data than the BoJ decision, unless the central bank decides to surprise the market.The US dollar, meanwhile, remains weak pretty much across the board after Fed Chair Powell sounded more dovish in his press conference. Still, we have key US data this week that could change the short-term trend, starting tomorrow with the US NFP report.In the American session, the main highlight will be the Canadian CPI report. The most important data to watch will be the underlying inflation measure, that is the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y, which is expected at 2.9% vs 3.0% prior.The BoC last week held interest rates steady but didn't validate the market's rate hike bets just yet. In fact, the central bank kept a cautious tone and highlighted the weak details in the recent GDP and employment reports despite acknowledging the improvements. The market is still fully pricing a rate hike by the end of 2026. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:USD/CAD is approaching a key swing level at 1.3725The BoC shifted to a stronger neutral stance, but didn't validate rate hike betsThe Fed delivered on expectations, but Powell sounded more dovishFocus on Canada CPI, US NFP and US CPIFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The USD has been weakening across the board since last week’s FOMC decision. The Fed delivered on expectations cutting by 25 bps and signalling a higher bar for further rate cuts, but Fed Chair Powell’s press conference was seen as fairly dovish. In fact, instead of sounding as neutral as possible and stressing data-dependency, he downplayed the inflation risk and emphasized the labour market weakness, suggesting that there’s more tolerance for higher inflation than for weaker labour market. The focus this week will be on the US NFP and CPI reports that will wrap up the last real trading week of the year before market participants prepare for the holidays. Right now, the market is pricing 57 bps of easing by the end of 2026. If we get strong US data, especially on the labour market side, we will likely see a hawkish repricing which would give the US dollar a boost. On the other hand, weak data should weigh on the greenback further as the market will bring rate cut bets forward. CAD:On the CAD side, the BoC last week held interest rates steady but didn't validate the market's rate hike bets just yet. In fact, the central bank kept a cautious tone and highlighted the weak details in the recent GDP and employment reports despite acknowledging the improvements. The market is still fully pricing a rate hike by the end of 2026. Today, we get the latest Canadian inflation report. The most important data to watch will be the underlying inflation measure, that is the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y, which is expected at 2.9% vs 3.0% prior. If we get a lower-than-expected figure, we will likely see some CAD weakness as traders could pare back a bit the rate hike bets. On the other hand, if the data surprises to the upside (the bigger the surprise, the stronger the reaction), we should see CAD strength as the market will likely bring forward rate hike expectations.USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that after breaking the major trendline on a blockbuster Canadian employment report, the USDCAD pair extended the drop into 3-month lows. We are now close to the key swing level around 1.3725. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into the 1.39 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.3550 level next.USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break above the trendline to pile in for a rally into the 1.39 handle next.USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support around the 1.3754 level. The buyers will likely continue to step in there with a defined risk below the support to target a pullback into the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the September lows around the 1.3725 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the Canadian CPI data. Tomorrow, we have the US NFP report. On Thursday, we get the US CPI data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:Gold remains supported amid the Fed's dovish reaction functionShort-term direction to be decided by the key US data this weekStrong data likely to put pressure on gold, weak data to support itFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold has been supported recently by the more dovish than expected Fed Chair Powell’s tone at the FOMC press conference. He downplayed the inflation risk and emphasized the labour market weakness, suggesting that there’s more tolerance for higher inflation than for weaker labour market. This week is all about the US NFP and CPI reports. Right now, the market is pricing 57 bps of easing by the end of 2026. If we get strong US data, especially on the labour market side, we will likely see a hawkish repricing and a selloff in gold. On the other hand, weak data should support the precious metal further as the market will bring rate cut bets forward. In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function. But in the short term, a further hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations should weigh on the market. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold continues to push into new highs after breaking above the 4245 level. The natural target should be the all-time high around the 4381 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in around the all-time high with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the 3887 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got a quick retest of the previous highs around the 4256 level on Friday. The buyers stepped in around those levels with a defined risk below the 4245 level to keep pushing into the all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will better off waiting for the price to come into the all-time highs or break below the 4245 level before piling back in with conviction.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have the upper bound of the average daily range for today standing right near the all-time highs. This suggests that it’s unlikely that we will see a sustained breakout today, so if the price rallies into the all-time highs, we can expect the sellers to pile in to position for a drop back into the 4245 level. At this point though, it would be better to wait for the US NFP report tomorrow as it’s expected to trigger big moves.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US NFP report. On Thursday, we get the US CPI data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:Japanese Yen is the strongest major currency todayBetter than expected Tankan data added support for the rate hikeBoJ wage growth assessment was positive The market is pricing an 83% probability of a BoJ rate hike on FridayUS NFP and CPI likely to steal the showFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD: The USD has been weakening across the board since last week’s FOMC decision. The Fed delivered on expectations cutting by 25 bps and signalling a higher bar for further rate cuts, but Fed Chair Powell’s press conference was seen as fairly dovish. In fact, instead of sounding as neutral as possible and stressing data-dependency, he downplayed the inflation risk and emphasized the labour market weakness, suggesting that there’s more tolerance for higher inflation than for weaker labour market. The focus this week will be on the US NFP and CPI reports that will wrap up the last real trading week of the year before market participants prepare for the holidays. Right now, the market is pricing 57 bps of easing by the end of 2026. If we get strong US data, especially on the labour market side, we will likely see a hawkish repricing which would give the US dollar a boost. On the other hand, weak data should weigh on the greenback further as the market will bring rate cut bets forward. JPY: On the JPY side, despite all the “leaks” and a more hawkish BoJ tone, the currency hasn’t really appreciated as one would have expected. Part of reason is that the market was already pricing high chances of at least two rate hikes by the end of 2026.Today, the Japanese Yen strengthened on the back of better than expected Tankan data and some hawkish BoJ commentary. Moreover, the BoJ wage growth assessment released this morning supported the tightening process. The market is now sure that the BoJ is going to deliver a 25 bps rate hike at this week’s monetary policy decision but it’s not expecting the central bank to outhawk the current pricing, which sees the BoJ tightening by 67 bps by the end of next year.Therefore, USD/JPY will likely be driven more by the US data than the BoJ decision, unless the central bank decides to surprise the market. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that we have a key support zone around the 153.50 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 158.87 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we’ve had a fairly messy price action lately, not giving us any clear level to lean on. The price is now trading around the last Thursday’s low at 155.00. A break below this level should open the door for a move into the 153.50 support. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a few minor support and resistance levels. The buyers stepped in around the 155.00 level to position for a move back into the 155.50 level. If the price pulls back into that level, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the 155.50 level to position for a drop into new lows with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 156.15 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US NFP report. On Thursday, we get the US CPI data. On Friday, we conclude the week with the BoJ Monetary Policy decision. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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OPTION EXPIRIES:EUR/USD1.1600 (EUR 6.15 bn)USD/JPY156.50 (US$ 1.54 bn)156.00 (US$ 1.06 bn)155.00 (US$ 914.02 mn)GBP/USD1.3500 (GBP 1.14 bn)1.3150 (GBP 1.03 bn)USD/CHF0.8100 (US$ 890.42 mn)0.8000 (US$ 355.00 mn)0.7950 (US$ 410.69 mn)USD/CAD1.4010 (US$ 515.94 mn)AUD/USD0.6650 (AUD 1.06 bn)0.6565 (AUD 843.74 mn)NZD/USD0.5850 (NZD 329.91 mn)0.5805 (NZD 330.00 mn)WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).Traders watch these levels because they often act as a "magnet" for the price. For example, if there's nothing happening in the market and the price is close to the expiry level, let's say 30-50 pips away, what you will usually see is the price moving into the expiry level. This happens due to the hedging activity of the market makers (banks, dealers and so on).As the price gets closer to the strike price near expiration, these market makers must aggressively buy or sell the currency to hedge their risk. This hedging activity tends to suppress volatility and keep the price "pinned" close to the strike price until the expiration time passes.RELATED ARTICLES:For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Key Takeaways for S&P 500 Prop Traders TodayMarket Context: S&P 500 futures (ES) and Micro E-minis (MES) are stabilizing following the high-volume selloff on December 12.orderFlow Intel: On the bigger view of the daily timeframe, our proprietary sentiment score currently sits at -3 (Mild Bearish), suggesting the market has accepted lower prices rather than rejecting them.Prop Trading Risk: The current consolidation phase poses a "chop" risk for challenge accounts; identifying clear invalidation levels is critical to preserving drawdown limits.Execution Scenario: A structured swing short setup with a 4.5:1 Reward-to-Risk ratio is outlined below, utilizing layered entries against key resistance.The Technical Outlook: Stabilization or Pause?The S&P 500 futures market opens the week in a precarious position. After attempting to break out toward the 6,925–6,930 region earlier this month, the market sharply repriced lower on December 12.For traders navigating prop firm evaluations (such as The5ers, ATFunded or QuantTekel Futures), the current price action near 6,845 presents a specific challenge: distinguishing between a genuine recovery and a "bearish flag" consolidation.I tapped into the orderFlow Intel framework to analyze the structure behind this move. Unlike standard candlestick analysis, which only shows where price closed, order flow analysis reveals the aggression of buyers versus sellers.The chart above visualizes the relationship between Volume (x-axis) and Net Delta (y-axis) for Days 02 through 12.What the above charts tell us about how the S&P 500 traded so far in December, 2025High Volume leans Bearish: The day with the highest volume (Day 12) corresponds to the most negative Delta (-14,877). This supports the earlier analysis that the recent surge in activity was driven by strong selling pressure.Low Volume Volatility: The day with the lowest volume (Day 09) also saw significant selling pressure (-5,535), appearing in the bottom-left quadrant.The Bullish Outlier (Day 08): Day 08 stands out significantly. It had moderate/low volume compared to the peak but generated a massive positive Delta (+19,208). This suggests that the buying on this day was extremely efficient or occurred in a thin market where prices moved easily.Cluster of Indecision: There is a cluster of days (03, 04, 05) with moderate volume and slightly negative Delta, indicating a period of consolidation or slow grinding lower before the volatility expanded.In summary, the relationship shows that while moderate volume can swing either way, the highest participation event (Day 12) was decisively bearish.The data from December 12 is significant. The selloff occurred on the highest daily volume of the month. More importantly, price spent a considerable portion of the session trading near the lows. In auction theory, this suggests value acceptance—the market found willing sellers at lower prices and did not immediately reject them.Consequently, the current orderFlow Intel score on the daily timeframe is -3. This indicates a mild bearish bias. It is not an aggressive "crash" signal, but it serves as a warning that overhead supply remains heavy.All this means that we are seeking a short. But as the more experienced traders know, should that wider timeframe outlook play out, then at the shorter timeframe perspective, we want to catch price rising to enter that short. But, first, risk management!Risk Management for Challenge AccountsIn the context of a funded account challenge, "stabilization" phases are often where drawdowns occur. Traders frequently anticipate a reversal too early, getting stopped out repeatedly in a tight range.To mitigate this, I am focusing on liquidity zones rather than prediction. The goal is to define a trade where the risk is strictly limited, ensuring that even a loss does not jeopardize the Daily Loss Limit.A Structured Short Setup on the Micro E-mini S&P 500 (MES)Based on the order flow data and the overhead resistance from Friday's VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), I have outlined a potential short scenario for the Micro E-mini S&P 500 (MES).This setup utilizes layered limit orders to average into a position, rather than chasing price. This technique improves the average entry price and reduces emotional decision-making.Of course, traders, and not only prop traders, can also consider this idea for ES, the E-mini S&P 500 Futures. It's the same trade idea.The Setup for S&P 500 Traders TodayInstrument: Micro E-mini S&P 500 (MES)Market Context: Price trading below the 6,868 resistance block.Entry Strategy: Sell Limit orders placed at:6,854.50 (1 Lot or 1 micro contract)6,861.75 (1 Lot)6,867.50 (1 Lot)The Invalidation (Stop Loss)Hard Stop: 6,876.00Logic: A sustained move above 6,876 would reclaim the breakdown level and invalidate the bearish thesis. Accepting the stop here protects the account from a potential short squeeze back to 6,900.The Targets (Take Profit)TP 1: 6,848.25 (Cover 1 Lot) – Returns risk to near-neutral.TP 2: 6,806.50 (Cover 1 Lot) – Test of recent structural lows.TP 3: 6,728.00 (Cover 1 Lot) – Extended target for trend continuation.Reward-to-Risk Analysis of the S&P Futures Trade Idea for TodayFor a standard $25,000 prop firm evaluation account, this trade structure offers a highly favorable profile. Note that you would only be trading 3 micro contracts, ticker MES. Naturally, you can also see Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures on TradingView.Maximum Risk: Approximately $221 (if all entries fill and stop is hit).Account Risk: ~0.22% of total balance.Potential Reward: Approximately $1,005 (if all targets are hit).Ratio: ~4.5:1.This high Reward-to-Risk ratio allows a trader to be wrong multiple times without breaching drawdown rules, a critical component of passing evaluations.For further analysis on managing risk during volatile sessions, refer to 'How to reduce drawdowns in trading' on Youtube.Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes and demonstrates a decision-support framework. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSION:In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the Swiss PPI and the Eurozone Industrial Production. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will likely be muted.As a reminder, the SNB held interest rates steady last week as widely expected and donwgraded slightly inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Nevertheless, the general tone was more upbeat due to the recent breakthrough in US tariffs that were lowered to 15% vs 39% prior. On the ECB side, the central bank is comfortably on the sidelines and just keeps monitoring the economic developments. Most ECB members have repeatedly said that they won't respond to small or short-term deviations from the 2% target, while also adding that the next move could even be a rate hike if economic conditions warrant such a move.AMERICAN SESSION:In the American session, the main highlight will be the Canadian CPI report. The most important data to watch will be the underlying inflation measure, that is the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y, which is expected at 2.9% vs 3.0% prior. The BoC last week held interest rates steady but didn't validate the market's rate hike bets just yet. In fact, the central bank kept a cautious tone and highlighted the weak details in the recent GDP and employment reports despite acknowledging the improvements. The market is still fully pricing a rate hike by the end of 2026.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS:14:30 GMT/09:30 ET - Fed's Miran (dove - voter)15:30 GMT/10:30 ET - Fed's Williams (dovish - voter)16:00 GMT/11:00 ET - Fed's Miran (dove - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Japan Tertiary Industry Index October +0.9% m/m (beats expected of +0.2% & prior +0.3%)Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks riseIndian rupee hits record low, downtrend remains despite likely RBI interventionChina yuan hits 14-month high even as weak consumer demand clouds economic growth outlookChina signals more policy support (same old?) as economy 'stabilises' in NovemberBOJ Tankan and comments lift December hike odds, yen firmsRBNZ Governor Breman: If economy evolves as expected, current 2.5% rate likely remainsChina Nov Retail Sales (YoY) 1.3% (exp 2.9%) & Industrial Production (YoY) 4.8% (exp 5.0%)China November new house prices -0.4% m/m and -2.4% y/yPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0656 (vs. estimate at 7.0569)Roomba maker iRobot files for bankruptcy, cedes control to supplierChina Vanke fails to secure delay on $284m bond payment, gets just 5 days breathing spaceBOJ official says Tankan shows easing trade fears but rising cost pressuresUK asking house prices fall sharply in December, Rightmove saysBank of Japan Tankan shows large manufacturing index improved from Q3Rollover for U.S. Equity Index Futures is Monday, December 15, 2025: What You Need to KnowNZD forecast downgraded as NZIER cuts near-term growth outlookIntervention watch - South Korea extends bond market stabilisation programmes into 2026Fortescue to buy remaining stake in Alta Copper for CAD139mEarly market response cite Bondi terrorist attack as AUD weightMusk says small nuclear reactors 'super dumb'China to issue ultra-long-term bonds to fund strategic priorities - weekend announcementHassett says Trump is a lightweight on the Federal ReserveKuwait’s oil minister said recent slide in crude prices unexpected, fair oil price $60–68RBNZ files civil proceedings against ASB over Anti-Money Laundering breachesUkraine offers to drop NATO bid as U.S.-led peace talks continueNew Zealand services sector sinks deeper into contraction in NovemberMonday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 15 December 2025Japan’s corporate sentiment remained broadly stable in the Bank of Japan’s December Tankan survey, with large manufacturers’ sentiment holding steady and services-sector conditions remaining elevated. While profit expectations softened and labour shortages persisted, follow-up comments from a BOJ official highlighted easing trade uncertainty, improved cost pass-through and resilient demand, particularly linked to AI and semiconductors. Rising labour costs and price pressures were cited as headwinds, but overall the data and commentary reinforced the case for gradual policy normalisation. The BOJ is widely expected to deliver a rate hike at its December 18–19 meeting. In FX markets, the yen initially weakened following the Tankan release, with USD/JPY pushing toward the 156.00 level in early trade. However, the move quickly reversed as markets digested the details, with the pair sliding back to around 155.30, reflecting growing sensitivity to BOJ policy expectations. ---NZD/USD lost ground on remarks from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman hinting at a further move lower in rates, if needed. ---Over the weekend, China’s finance ministry said it plans to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds next year, with proceeds earmarked for key national strategies, security initiatives and industrial upgrading. The announcement signals ongoing fiscal support, though the lack of detail around specific projects limited immediate market reaction. Stress in the property sector remains acute. Bonds issued by China Vanke were sold heavily, with the developer still locked in negotiations with bondholders just one business day ahead of a key maturity and no agreement yet in place. Fresh data underscored the depth of the downturn, with new home prices falling month-on-month for a 30th straight month and existing home prices declining for a 31st consecutive month. November activity data painted a mixed picture. Retail sales growth slowed sharply, reflecting weak consumer demand amid falling household wealth. The National Bureau of Statistics said the economy had “stabilised while improving,” citing firmer momentum in parts of industrial production and services, but acknowledged ongoing challenges. Officials pledged to step up counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policy adjustments, signalling readiness to deploy further support if needed, though no specific measures were announced. --- In regional FX, the onshore yuan climbed to a 14-month high, while the Indian rupee continued to weaken, drawing further intervention from the Reserve Bank of India. Geopolitics Ukraine signalled a potential shift in its war aims, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy indicating a willingness to drop NATO membership ambitions as peace talks with U.S. envoys in Berlin showed signs of progress. ---Note:Rollover for U.S. equity index futures takes place on Monday, December 15, with liquidity expected to migrate into the next contract as volume and open interest shift. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -1.47%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -0.92% Shanghai Composite -0.11%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.77% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan Tertiary Industry Index October +0.9% m/mbeats expected of +0.2% & prior +0.3%USD/JPY has hit a new session low around 151.21. ---The Japan Tertiary Industry Index measures monthly changes in output across Japan’s service sector, which accounts for roughly 70% of the economy. Compiled by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the index tracks activity in industries such as wholesale and retail trade, transport, information and communications, finance, real estate, healthcare and personal services. It is designed to capture the volume of services produced rather than prices, making it a useful gauge of real economic activity. Because services dominate domestic demand and employment, the index is closely watched for signals on consumption trends, wage dynamics and inflation pressures. Persistent strength can reinforce the case for tighter monetary policy, while weakness may point to slowing demand and reduced inflation momentum. This result is a good 'un, further supporting the BOJ rate hike expectation at this week's meeting (Thursday and Friday). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Citi has shifted to a notably more hawkish outlook on Australian monetary policy, now forecasting two 25 basis point rate increases in 2026, beginning as early as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first policy meeting of the year on February 3, followed by a second hike in May. Info via an Australian Financial Review report. The call follows a sharp repricing in interest-rate markets over recent weeks, with investors rapidly swinging from expectations of policy easing to the prospect of tightening. Citi argues that the shift reflects growing evidence that monetary conditions are now too accommodative given domestic economic dynamics.In a note to clients, the bank pointed to:a tight labour market, higher inflation forecasts, and unexpected strength in housing and household consumption as key drivers behind its revised view. Citi warned that policymakers risk allowing inflation pressures to become entrenched if they fail to respond decisively.If inflation runs outside the target band for an extended period without a policy response, it becomes embedded in behaviour and expectations, arguing that credibility risks rise the longer action is delayed.Market pricing has adjusted rapidly. Traders are now assigning roughly a 23% probability of a rate hike in February, with a full 25bp increase priced by August, and a strong chance of an additional move thereafter. The volatility in expectations highlights how quickly sentiment has turned amid stronger-than-anticipated domestic data.Citi also highlighted the housing market as a key source of upside inflation risk. A faster-than-expected rebound in housing activity has driven higher construction costs and rents, adding to broader price pressures. The bank noted that the acceleration in housing-related inflation has been partly fuelled by government policy settings.While Citi acknowledged that the housing surge was not directly caused by the RBA, it said policymakers appear to have been caught off guard by the speed of the recovery. In its view, the evolving inflation backdrop now warrants a shift toward tighter policy sooner rather than later. ---The shift reinforces a hawkish turn in Australian rates pricing, supporting higher front-end yields and increasing sensitivity in AUD to incoming inflation and labour-market data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Indian rupee weakened to a fresh record low on Monday despite apparent intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), underscoring persistent pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and adverse global financial conditions.The rupee fell as far as 90.56 per dollar, its weakest level on record, before paring some losses to trade around 90.52, down about 0.1% on the day. Traders said the RBI was likely active in the market, selling U.S. dollars to smooth volatility and cap losses, though the intervention did little to reverse the broader trend.Market participants said dollar demand remained strong amid firm U.S. yields and continued global risk aversion, which have weighed on emerging-market currencies more broadly. While the RBI has consistently acted to limit excessive rupee volatility rather than defend any specific level, the latest move highlights the challenges facing policymakers as external pressures intensify.The rupee’s weakness also reflects structural factors, including India’s persistent current-account sensitivity to higher energy prices and capital flow volatility. Importer demand for dollars has remained steady, while foreign portfolio inflows have been uneven amid shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy.RBI intervention has helped slow the pace of depreciation, but traders noted that the central bank appears comfortable allowing a gradual adjustment in the exchange rate, provided moves remain orderly. India’s foreign exchange reserves remain substantial, giving the RBI scope to lean against sharp or disorderly moves, though authorities have signalled a preference for conserving reserves rather than mounting an aggressive defence.Looking ahead, currency strategists say the rupee is likely to remain under pressure as long as the dollar stays supported by higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates and global financial conditions remain tight. Near-term direction will depend on upcoming U.S. data, global risk sentiment and the RBI’s tolerance for further depreciation toward psychologically important levels. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s onshore yuan strengthened to its firmest level in more than a year on Monday, even as fresh economic data underscored the challenge policymakers face in reviving domestic demand and rebalancing the world’s second-largest economy.The yuan rose (USD/CNY lower) to 7.0510 per dollar, its strongest level since October 8, 2024, supported by steady official guidance and confidence that authorities will continue to lean against excessive currency weakness. The move came despite November data showing a further loss of momentum in both industrial activity and consumer spending.Industrial output grew 4.8% year-on-year in November, slowing slightly from October and undershooting market expectations. Retail sales, a key gauge of household demand, decelerated more sharply, rising just 1.3%, down from 2.9% the previous month and well below forecasts. The figures reinforce signs that China’s recovery remains uneven and heavily reliant on the supply side:Evidence of fragile consumption continues to mount. Passenger car sales slumped 8.5% in November, the steepest decline in ten months, while the extended Singles’ Day online shopping festival failed to generate the usual boost in spending. Fixed-asset investment also disappointed, contracting 2.6% over the January–November period, deeper than expected and highlighting caution among businesses despite ample production capacity.Policymakers remain committed to an annual growth target of around 5% next year as China prepares to launch a new five-year plan, but the path forward looks increasingly challenging. Both the World Bank and the IMF have flagged more subdued medium-term growth prospects, citing weak domestic demand and structural headwinds.At the heart of the issue lies the prolonged property downturn (more poor data on this earlier), which has eroded household wealth and dampened consumer confidence. Home prices are expected to continue falling through 2026 before stabilising, prolonging the drag on sentiment. While leaders pledged a “proactive” fiscal stance at last week’s key economic meeting, they also acknowledged a “prominent” mismatch between strong supply and weak demand — a contradiction that remains unresolved.For now, resilient exports have helped shore up growth and supported currency stability, even as trading partners criticise China’s large trade surplus. The firmer yuan reflects confidence in policy support, but the underlying data suggest pressure is building for stronger demand-side measures in the year ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s economy showed signs of stabilisation and gradual improvement in November, but authorities warned that external headwinds and persistent domestic imbalances continue to weigh on the outlook, signalling a readiness to step up policy support.Speaking after the release of November activity data, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said economic conditions had “stabilised while improving,” reflecting firmer momentum in parts of industrial production and services. However, the official cautioned that changes in the external environment are having a deeper impact, underscoring ongoing pressure from global demand conditions, trade uncertainty and financial market volatility.The spokesperson highlighted a growing tension between strong domestic supply capacity and weak demand, describing the imbalance as increasingly prominent. While production capacity in some sectors remains ample, subdued household and corporate demand continues to constrain pricing power and profitability. As a result, certain industries and firms are facing mounting operational difficulties.The comments reinforce the view that China’s recovery remains uneven, with supply-side strength outpacing demand-side momentum. This imbalance has contributed to lingering deflationary pressures and has kept policymakers focused on supporting demand without reigniting financial risks.In response, the NBS said authorities will step up both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policy adjustments, language that typically signals a willingness to deploy additional fiscal, monetary and structural support if conditions warrant. While no specific measures were outlined, the guidance suggests policymakers remain prepared to fine-tune stimulus to stabilise growth and cushion against external shocks.The remarks are likely to reinforce market expectations for continued targeted support into early 2026, particularly if domestic demand fails to recover more decisively. For now, officials appear intent on maintaining stability while preserving flexibility to respond to a more challenging global backdrop. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Japanese yen has begun to recover from initial post-data weakness following the release of the Bank of Japan’s December Tankan survey and subsequent comments from a BOJ official, as markets increasingly lean toward the possibility of a policy rate hike later this week.The Tankan survey showed corporate sentiment holding up better than expected, with large manufacturers’ confidence steady at +15 and smaller firms outperforming forecasts. Capital expenditure plans remained firm, inflation expectations stayed anchored at 2.4% across one-, three- and five-year horizons, and labour shortages persisted, all elements consistent with the BOJ’s narrative that underlying price pressures remain intact.Follow-up comments from a BOJ official added further colour. Firms cited easing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, a smaller-than-feared impact from U.S. tariffs, improved cost pass-through and robust demand linked to artificial intelligence and semiconductor investment as factors supporting business conditions. While companies also flagged rising labour costs, worker shortages and weaker consumption due to higher prices, the balance of commentary suggested resilience rather than deterioration in corporate fundamentals.Taken together, the data and responses appear to strengthen the case for another step toward policy normalisation at the BOJ’s December 18/19 meeting. The combination of stable sentiment, firm capex intentions and anchored inflation expectations supports the view that Japan’s economy can absorb modestly tighter policy, even as profit growth moderates.In currency markets, the initial reaction was counterintuitive. The yen weakened following the Tankan release, with USD/JPY briefly climbing above 155.95. However, as markets digested the details and the BOJ commentary, the yen began to strengthen, with USD/JPY pulling back below 155.60.The price action suggests a market still cautious but increasingly sensitive to any signal that the BOJ may move sooner rather than later. With positioning heavily skewed toward yen weakness, even incremental confirmation of a December hike risks triggering further short-covering.The evolving BoJ rate hike narrative, reinforced by Tankan data and corporate feedback, is shifting expectations. If the BOJ does move this week, it would mark another meaningful step away from ultra-loose policy and could provide further support for the yen, particularly if accompanied by guidance that policy normalisation will continue gradually into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman said the economic outlook has evolved broadly in line with the Monetary Policy Committee’s expectations, with signs continuing to emerge that growth is recovering.Breman reiterated that the forward track for the Official Cash Rate (OCR), as published in the November Monetary Policy Statement, still implies a small probability of a further rate cut in the near term. However, she emphasised that if economic conditions unfold as expected, the OCR is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25% for an extended period.Breman also noted that financial market conditions have tightened since the November policy decision, to a greater degree than implied by the RBNZ’s central OCR projection. She said this tightening would be factored into the bank’s ongoing assessment of monetary conditions and the outlook for growth and inflation. ---The kiwi $ has been marked down on the comments: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China's property investment plummeted to a 15.9% year-on-year decline in the first 11 months, a widening drop from the previous period. Property sales and new construction starts also continued to decrease, alongside a significant fall in funds raised by developers.New Construction Starts showed at –20.5% Y/Y Fixed-Asset Investment: –2.6% Y/YProperty Investment: –15.9% Y/YFunds Raised by Real Estate Developers: –11.9% Y/Y Urban area unemployment rate 5.10%same as October, 5.10%-Earlier:China debt crackdown pushes LGFVs into costly shadow loans, reviving hidden-risk worriesUSTR Greer calls for smaller, balanced China trade and tighter USMCA enforcementChina November new house prices -0.4% m/m and -2.4% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China November 2025 house pricesChina New Home Prices -0.39% m/m prior –0.45%for the y/y, -2.4% (prior -2.2%)Used Homes Prices -0.66% m/m prior –0.66%---I seem to write something like this every month ... This is a self feeding vicious cycle. Why buy a home when the price will soon fall? The indebted property sector continues to weigh on the Chinese economy. Stimulus and surprisingly resilient exports are a counter balance of sorts.---Earlier:China to issue ultra-long-term bonds to fund strategic priorities - weekend announcementChina Vanke fails to secure delay on $284m bond payment, gets just 5 days breathing space---And, plenty of data to come from China soon:Economic and event calendar in Asia Monday, December 15, 2025: RBA, BoJ Tankan, China data This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.The previous close was 7.0546. PBOC injected 130.9bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of 1.40%---Earlier:China to issue ultra-long-term bonds to fund strategic priorities - weekend announcementChina Vanke fails to secure delay on $284m bond payment, gets just 5 days breathing space---And, plenty of data to come from China soon:Economic and event calendar in Asia Monday, December 15, 2025: RBA, BoJ Tankan, China data This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

iRobot, the maker of Roomba robot vacuums, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after reaching a restructuring agreement that hands control of the company to its main supplier and lender, Shenzhen Picea Robotics.The Massachusetts-based company filed in Delaware on December 14. Under the plan, Shenzhen Picea will receive 100% of the equity in the reorganised business, while existing shareholders will be wiped out. Santrum Hong Kong is also involved in the restructuring.iRobot said the process will allow it to continue operating as a going concern, meet employee obligations and pay suppliers in full during the court-supervised process. The filing follows years of declining earnings and mounting debt pressures. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.