The aircraft (AF1) carrying President Trump to the World Economic Forum in Davos changed course sharply off the East Coast and is tracking back toward Joint Base Andrews. White House says minor electrical fault.White House said "minor electrical issue".Trump will board a different aircraft and continue on to Switzerland.Another u-turn coming in Davos? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A policy-driven “sell America” shock hit stocks, the dollar and volatility gauges on Tuesday, increasing the odds Trump softens his stance in coming days to calm markets. Summary:US stocks suffered their worst session since October, pushing key indexes negative for 2026.VIX spiked toward 21 as investors scrambled for protection.Dollar weakened and gold hit fresh records, consistent with a “sell America” pulse.Markets reacted to escalating foreign-policy risks tied to Greenland and Europe.Trump’s Davos appearance and talks with European leaders create scope for a tactical de-escalation.Markets on Tuesday delivered a clear “sell America” signal as investors recoiled from escalating foreign-policy risk out of Washington, with US equities, the dollar and Treasuries all moving in ways that suggested a sudden rise in risk premia tied to policy uncertainty.All three major US equity benchmarks posted their steepest declines since October, dragging the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite into negative territory for 2026. The S&P 500 fell 2.06%, the Dow dropped 1.76% and the Nasdaq slid 2.39%. Volatility also jumped, with the VIX rising toward the 21 level, a sign that investors rushed to buy protection as confidence wobbled.At the same time, the dollar weakened and gold surged to fresh records, reinforcing the sense that markets were seeking safety from policy-driven uncertainty. Bond yields also rose, consistent with investors demanding more compensation for holding longer-duration US assets amid an increasingly unsettled macro and political backdrop.The catalyst was an intensifying geopolitical narrative around President Donald Trump’s Greenland ambitions and the risk of a broader standoff with Europe. Trump is due to speak in Davos on Wednesday and said he had agreed to talk with European leaders at the World Economic Forum, a move that may provide an off-ramp.That matters because sharp market drawdowns often act as a constraint on the White House’s negotiating posture. If the administration’s strategy is perceived as pushing markets toward tighter financial conditions, lower equities, higher yields, a weaker dollar, it can quickly become self-defeating. This is the core of the “TACO” case: after markets deliver a visible penalty for heightened confrontation, the incentives shift toward de-escalation, reframing, or a tactical backdown to stabilise conditions.In the days ahead, investors will watch whether Trump uses Davos to soften his tone, emphasise deal-making, or signal a willingness to find “common ground” with Europe. Even limited messaging shifts can damp volatility, especially if markets have already priced a worst-case path. If rhetoric cools and risk appetite returns, Tuesday’s “sell America” burst may prove more of a pressure-release event than the start of a sustained trend. Trump is scheduled to deliver a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, 2026, from 13:30–14:15 GMT. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korea’s president warned that US chip tariffs would mainly drive up American prices, as Asia’s semiconductor dominance limits Washington’s leverage. Summary:Lee says US chip tariffs would raise US prices, not hurt Asian producers.Proposed duties could reach 100% without new US manufacturing commitments.Korea and Taiwan dominate global chip supply, limiting tariff effectiveness.South Korea’s exports hit a record in 2025, led by semiconductors.Lee briefly reiterated expectations for a stronger won later this year.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung played down the threat posed by proposed US tariffs on semiconductor imports, arguing that any move by Washington to impose steep duties would ultimately raise prices for American consumers rather than undermine Asian chipmakers.Lee was responding to comments from Howard Lutnick, who said South Korean and Taiwanese semiconductor firms could face tariffs of up to 100% unless they significantly expand manufacturing capacity in the United States. Lee said such a policy would be difficult to enforce without major economic consequences, given the dominant position held by Asian producers in the global chip supply chain.He noted that South Korean and Taiwanese companies account for an estimated 80–90% of key segments of the semiconductor market, meaning the bulk of any tariff burden would likely be passed directly on to US prices. “Most of it is likely to be reflected in higher prices in the United States,” Lee said, adding that tariffs at that scale would function more as an inflationary tax than an effective industrial policy tool.Lee also stressed that South Korea has safeguards embedded in its trade agreement with the US designed to prevent its chipmakers from being placed at a competitive disadvantage relative to peers in Taiwan or elsewhere. Those mechanisms, he said, would help shield Korean firms from discriminatory treatment even if US trade policy turns more aggressive.The comments come against the backdrop of a strong export performance for South Korea. Total exports reached a record $709.4bn in 2025, up 3.8% from the previous year, driven largely by a surge in semiconductor demand linked to artificial intelligence investment. Semiconductor shipments jumped 22% last year, with total chip exports reaching $173.4bn.While the US remains an important destination, chip exports to the American market accounted for just 8% of the total, with China the largest buyer, followed by Taiwan and Vietnam. The export mix highlights South Korea’s diversified demand base and limits the direct exposure of the sector to potential US tariff action.At the end of his remarks, Lee also touched briefly on currency moves, reiterating official expectations that the won could strengthen toward the 1,400 per dollar level in the coming months, while acknowledging that FX dynamics remain closely tied to broader regional moves — a point discussed in more detail in earlier comments. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s central bank leaned against yuan strength with a firm fix, signalling a desire to slow appreciation rather than block it outright.Summary:PBOC set the daily yuan fix at 7.0014 per dollar.Reuters model estimate stood at 6.9578, a large gap.Fix signals resistance to rapid yuan appreciation.Authorities appear focused on pace management, not reversal.Policy aims to protect exporters and limit volatile capital flows.China’s central bank signalled a continued preference for managing the pace of yuan appreciation rather than allowing a rapid strengthening, setting the daily onshore yuan reference rate notably weaker than market expectations despite broad US dollar softness.The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) fixed the yuan at 7.0014 per dollar, holding the midpoint just above the closely watched 7.00 threshold. That compared with a Reuters modelled estimate of 6.9578, a sizeable divergence that underscored official resistance to near-term currency gains.The fixing came even as the US dollar weakened globally and the yuan had been rallying in recent sessions, highlighting Beijing’s concern that excessive or rapid appreciation could undermine exporters, tighten domestic financial conditions, or encourage destabilising capital flows. By setting the fix well weaker than market models implied, the PBOC effectively leaned against one-way strengthening pressure without resorting to more overt measures.Market participants noted that authorities have adopted a similar approach since December, repeatedly delivering weaker-than-expected fixings while still allowing gradual appreciation to proceed. The pattern suggests policymakers are focused on smoothing the path of the currency rather than defending a specific level or reversing the broader trend.Strategists said the gap between the fixing and market expectations sends a clear signal that the PBOC wants to avoid a disorderly rally in the yuan, particularly at a time when China is seeking to stabilise growth, support exports and manage fragile domestic confidence. A faster move below 7.00 could also have encouraged speculative inflows or accelerated repatriation of offshore funds, outcomes authorities have historically sought to prevent.The approach aligns with Beijing’s broader FX playbook: tolerate moderate, fundamentals-driven moves while using the fixing mechanism to discourage momentum-driven positioning. As long as the dollar remains soft and regional currencies firm, traders expect the PBOC to continue calibrating the fix to keep yuan gains controlled rather than abrupt. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s DPP called for decisive steps to calm bond and FX markets, warning ultra-long yield volatility risks destabilising broader financial conditions.Summary:DPP says market volatility has become “somewhat abnormal.”Tamaki urges decisive government and BOJ action.Proposals include bond buybacks and reduced 40-year JGB issuance.FX intervention should not be ruled out if yen weakens.BOJ can keep hiking gradually if wage growth holds near 5%.Japan’s opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) called on the government and the Bank of Japan to respond decisively to what it described as “somewhat abnormal” market moves, as volatility in long-dated Japanese government bonds continues to unsettle investors.Speaking in an interview on Tuesday, DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki said market turbulence had intensified sharply and warranted a stronger official response. Beyond verbal guidance, Tamaki said authorities could consider concrete steps such as buying back government bonds or reducing issuance of ultra-long debt, including 40-year JGBs, to stabilise conditions. He also suggested the Bank of Japan could slow the pace of its bond-purchase tapering if volatility persists.Tamaki warned that unchecked rises in long-term interest rates risk spilling over into foreign-exchange markets. He said the government should not rule out FX intervention if efforts to curb excessive bond yield increases end up weakening the yen, underscoring the interlinked nature of rates and currency dynamics.While calling for flexibility on market stabilisation, Tamaki maintained that Japan’s gradual monetary normalisation should continue. He said the BOJ can keep raising interest rates in small steps, provided small and mid-sized firms are able to sustain wage increases of around 5%, signalling support for policy tightening anchored in durable income growth rather than market turbulence alone.-ps. Who is the DPP?The Democratic Party for the People is a centrist opposition party in Japan, formed in 2018 from elements of the former Democratic Party. It positions itself between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the more left-leaning opposition blocs, advocating fiscal responsibility alongside wage growth and middle-class support. While the DPP holds a modest number of seats in the Diet and is not a dominant force, its views are closely watched by markets during periods of instability, particularly as Japan heads toward elections and fiscal policy becomes more politically sensitive.Tamaki’s comments come as Japan’s bond market remains in focus following sharp moves in ultra-long yields, with investors assessing whether authorities will lean more forcefully against disorderly conditions. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A violent JGB sell-off driven by election-linked fiscal fears jolted global rates before a tentative Wednesday rebound eased worst-case worries. Summary:Japan’s long-end yields surged Tuesday as snap-election fiscal plans spooked markets. The 40-year yield broke above 4%, tightening global financial conditions via spillovers. S&P warned tax cuts risk a lasting hit to revenues and fiscal strength. JGBs steadied early Wednesday after official calls for calm; Treasuries also stabilised. Tariff/Greenland headlines and gold’s surge reinforced the risk-off tone. A sharp sell-off in long-dated Japanese government bonds (JGBs) on Tuesday spilled into global markets, pushing up overseas yields and weighing on risk sentiment as investors reassessed Japan’s fiscal trajectory ahead of a snap election. Japan’s 40-year yield jumped to fresh record highs, rising above 4% for the first time and reaching around 4.2%, after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a February 8 election and floated a two-year suspension of the 8% food sales tax as part of a broader fiscal push. The move triggered renewed concern over Japan’s already-stretched public finances and raised tail risks around a potential unwind of “carry trade” positions that have relied on low Japanese yields to fund purchases of higher-yielding global assets. As volatility surged, US long-end yields also rose, underscoring how Japan’s bond market can transmit stress through global capital flows. S&P Global Ratings added to the fiscal focus, warning that tax cuts, including reductions to consumption tax items such as food, risk becoming a sustained drag on revenues rather than a one-off hit, potentially undermining Japan’s fiscal position over the long run. By early Wednesday in Asia, JGBs stabilised and rebounded at the open, easing immediate fears of a disorderly “meltdown.” Japan’s 40-year yield fell around six basis points after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama urged calm, while Treasuries also edged higher in price (lower yields) as the market retraced part of Tuesday’s move. Asian equities opened lower after Wall Street’s sharpest fall since October, while gold extended gains to fresh records amid the volatility. The backdrop remains complicated by geopolitics and trade risk. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats toward major European economies, tied to the Greenland dispute, have added another layer of uncertainty for risk assets and cross-border flows. Adding to the narrative around confidence and sovereign risk, Denmark’s AkademikerPension said it plans to divest US Treasuries by the end of January, citing concerns about US fiscal sustainability. With Japan’s election pitch now central to the rates story, markets will watch whether JGB volatility fades — or resurfaces — and how much follow-through emerges on fiscal plans that investors fear could worsen the debt outlook. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China is lining up a five-year consumption drive, pairing near-term loan subsidies and credit guarantees with a strategic shift toward services-led demand growth. Summary:China plans new 2026–30 policies to lift consumption and address supply-demand imbalances. Officials highlight strong supply but weak demand as a “prominent” issue. Finance ministry extends interest subsidies for consumption and service-sector loans to end-2026. A 500bn yuan guarantee program and MSME loan subsidies aim to spur private investment. Policy focus is shifting toward services consumption while trade-ins for goods continueChina is preparing a fresh five-year push to lift domestic consumption from 2026 to 2030, with policymakers flagging the need to address a “prominent” imbalance between strong supply and weak demand and signalling a growing emphasis on services spending. At a briefing on Tuesday, senior officials from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said China will roll out new policies over the next five years to spur consumption and better align supply and demand. NDRC vice head Wang Changlin said the supply-heavy, demand-light dynamic remains a clear challenge for the economy. The backdrop is an economy that met its headline growth objective last year, but with domestic demand still lagging the production side. China’s economy grew 5% in 2025, supported by export strength that offset softer consumption. Industrial output rose 5.9% last year versus 3.7% growth in retail sales, underlining the imbalance officials say they want to tackle. Alongside the longer-term consumption plan, China’s Ministry of Finance announced a set of near-term measures aimed at lowering borrowing costs and encouraging spending and private investment. The ministry said it will extend interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and for certain service-sector business loans through the end of 2026, while also extending and refining support for equipment upgrades. Xinhua’s report said the consumption-loan subsidy will be broadened to include credit card instalment services and remove certain sector limits, while the service-sector loan subsidy expands coverage to areas including digital, green and retail. Beijing is also leaning on credit support for smaller private firms. Officials outlined a special guarantee program totalling 500 billion yuan over two years to support private investment by micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, delivered via the National Financing Guarantee Fund, alongside a loan interest subsidy policy for eligible MSME borrowing. On the consumption mix, authorities signalled a gradual pivot away from goods-heavy support toward services. NDRC officials said trade-in subsidies for big-ticket goods such as electric vehicles will continue, but services including elderly care, healthcare and leisure are becoming a central focus as policymakers look for new demand engines. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korea signalled tolerance for FX volatility, saying the won should strengthen toward 1,400 as authorities work to stabilise markets.Summary:South Korea says it lacks immediate FX stabilisation tools.Lee stresses FX markets are driven by supply and demand.Won moves broadly aligned with yen, but has weakened less.Authorities see the won strengthening toward 1,400.Government pledges to work toward FX market stability.South Korea’s president said authorities are working to stabilise the foreign exchange market but acknowledged that domestic policy tools alone are insufficient to fully address currency pressures, as the won remains sensitive to broader regional and global dynamics.Speaking on Wednesday, President Lee said Seoul would already have deployed FX-stabilising measures if they were available, underscoring the limits policymakers face in directly countering recent currency volatility. He stressed that the foreign exchange market ultimately operates on supply and demand fundamentals, signalling caution against expectations of aggressive or unilateral intervention.Lee noted that recent moves in the Korean won have broadly tracked developments in the Japanese yen, reflecting shared exposure to global dollar strength and regional capital flows. However, he argued that the won has weakened by less than the yen during the latter’s recent decline, suggesting relative resilience in Korea’s currency performance.Importantly, the president said South Korean foreign exchange authorities expect the won to strengthen toward the 1,400 level in the near term, offering reassurance to markets after periods of elevated volatility. He added that the government would continue working to stabilise FX conditions, while recognising that external forces, including US monetary policy and global risk sentiment, play a dominant role.The comments highlight the delicate balance facing South Korean policymakers as they seek to manage currency stability without distorting market signals or exhausting limited intervention capacity. With Asia-Pacific currencies under pressure amid shifting expectations for US interest rates, Seoul appears focused on communication and coordination rather than direct market action.Lee’s remarks also echo a broader regional theme, where authorities have increasingly framed FX moves as externally driven and linked to the dollar cycle rather than domestic fundamentals. By emphasising alignment with the yen and relative outperformance, the administration appears keen to counter perceptions of idiosyncratic weakness in the won.For markets, the messaging suggests a tolerance for near-term volatility but a preference for orderly adjustment, with officials relying on verbal guidance and macro coordination rather than immediate stabilisation measures. The explicit reference to a stronger won near 1,400 may also act as a soft signal to discourage one-way speculative positioning. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." Previous close 6.9598 PBoC injects 363.5b yuan through 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%net injects net 122.7b yuan Earlier:PBOC expected to set USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9578Added, more:PBOC sets firm yuan fix to slow gains despite weak dollar (leans against yuan rally) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Barclays sees Greenland-related geopolitical risks as a bigger long-term threat to the euro than the dollar despite near-term USD weakness.Summary:The dollar weakened as Greenland tensions and tariff threats escalated.Barclays warns euro faces greater risk in a severe US–EU fallout.NATO cohesion and European defence spending are key concerns.Export-heavy economies like Germany are seen as most exposed.Analysts expect limited US asset divestment even in worst case.The US dollar weakened on Tuesday as markets reacted to an escalation in geopolitical tensions linked to President Donald Trump’s renewed push to assert control over Greenland, including threats to impose tariffs on European countries opposing the move.While the greenback softened on the day, some strategists argue the longer-term risks from a deterioration in US–Europe relations may fall more heavily on the euro. Analysts at Barclays said that in an extreme scenario, the Greenland dispute could become a far greater problem for Europe and the single currency than for the United States.Barclays noted that the situation has sharpened investor focus on strains within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, raising tail risks around alliance cohesion. European governments, already under pressure to lift defence spending following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, have this month deployed troops to Greenland and now face the prospect of trade retaliation from Washington. In a worst-case outcome, Barclays warned that relations between the US and its NATO partners could deteriorate to the point where Washington effectively disengages from the alliance.Other analysts echoed the view that a tougher trade environment would be more damaging for Europe than the US. Export-heavy economies such as Germany, the region’s largest, are seen as particularly exposed, with tariffs likely to hurt European corporates and growth prospects more than their US counterparts. That dynamic, strategists argue, would ultimately pressure the euro more than the dollar.Market moves on Tuesday reflected near-term risk aversion. The ICE US Dollar Index fell around 0.8%, extending its decline over the past year to nearly 10%, while US equities and bonds also sold off sharply.Barclays cautioned against over-interpreting these initial reactions, arguing that knee-jerk market moves often differ from longer-term outcomes. Its base case remains that the US and Europe eventually find a compromise allowing Washington to meet its security objectives in Greenland without a full rupture in relations.Even in a more adverse scenario, the bank does not expect a wholesale exit from US assets. Instead, any dollar weakness would likely reflect low hedging ratios among foreign investors rather than a mass divestment. Barclays added that Europe’s fiscal constraints mean the bar for policy-driven euro support remains high unless there is coordinated joint issuance to fund common defence capabilities. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand has pencilled in 7 November 2026 for the election, extending the campaign runway while the formal legal timetable remains much shorter. Summary:Luxon set New Zealand’s election for Saturday, 7 November 2026. The long lead time reflects early announcement convention, not a long legal notice period. Formal election machinery begins later; writ must be issued within 7 days of dissolution/expiry. PREFU timing is legally tied to election day (20–30 working days prior). Markets get clarity, but a longer “campaign lens” now applies to policy.New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has set the country’s next general election for Saturday, 7 November 2026, locking in a polling date more than nine months in advance and effectively starting the long campaign season. While the lead time looks unusually long, the announcement is best read as an early political commitment rather than the start of the formal legal election timetable. Under New Zealand law, once Parliament is dissolved or expires, the Governor-General must issue the writ for a general election within seven days. In practice, the official “writ day” and election calendar milestones tend to occur much closer to polling day. Early date-setting has become a familiar feature of New Zealand politics, with domestic media noting that 7 November had been widely tipped ahead of Luxon’s announcement. The advantage is certainty: political parties, donors, media, government agencies, and voters can plan around the fixed date rather than speculating about snap timing.There are also practical and fiscal reasons a government may prefer to remove doubt early. New Zealand’s Public Finance Act requires the Treasury to publish a Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) within a defined window 20–30 working days before election day, which makes clarity on the polling date operationally valuable for budgeting, forecasting, and public-sector “caretaker” planning. For markets, the announcement mainly crystallises the political calendar rather than signalling an immediate policy pivot. But it does lengthen the period in which political incentives can matter — including the potential for pre-election positioning on fiscal settings, regulation, and cost-of-living measures — with the added implication that any major policy announcements will be judged through an election lens for most of 2026.Overall, Luxon’s move is a “certainty play”: it narrows speculation risk, gives agencies a clear run-up to statutory pre-election processes, and sets a defined timeline for the contest that will decide whether the National-led government wins a second term. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Berkshire Hathaway may exit Kraft Heinz after a decade, signalling the end of a high-profile but underperforming investment.Summary:Berkshire may sell its entire 27.5% stake in Kraft Heinz.Kraft Heinz filed a prospectus enabling a potential resale.Shares fell nearly 5% in after-hours trading.Berkshire has written down the investment twice since 2019.A sale would end a decade-long, underperforming investment.Berkshire Hathaway may be preparing to unwind its long-standing investment in Kraft Heinz, after a regulatory filing indicated that the conglomerate could sell its entire 27.5% stake in the packaged food group.Kraft Heinz on Tuesday filed a prospectus supplement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register the potential resale of Berkshire’s 325.4 million shares. While the filing does not confirm that a sale is imminent, it enables Berkshire to dispose of its holding, which is currently valued at around $7.7bn based on Tuesday’s closing price.The disclosure weighed on sentiment, with Kraft Heinz shares falling nearly 5% in after-hours trading following the filing. Reuters adds:Berkshire is the company’s largest shareholder and helped engineer the 2015 merger between Kraft Foods and H.J. Heinz alongside Brazilian private equity group 3G Capital. That deal, once touted as a model for scale-driven efficiencies, has since been widely viewed as a disappointment. 3G Capital exited its stake in 2023, while Berkshire has remained invested despite mounting challenges.The combined company has struggled with years of aggressive cost-cutting, underinvestment in brands and product innovation, and intensifying competition from private-label and health-focused alternatives. Slowing sales across the US food sector, as consumers push back against price increases, have further pressured performance. Kraft Heinz has been among the weakest performers in the packaged food space.Berkshire has already acknowledged the investment’s shortcomings through substantial write-downs, including a $3bn impairment in 2019 and a further $3.76bn charge recorded in August. Warren Buffett has previously described the deal as a mistake, citing overly optimistic assumptions about the durability of brand power.The filing comes ahead of a planned breakup of Kraft Heinz later this year, a move that both Buffett and Berkshire chief executive Greg Abel publicly opposed when it was announced. Kraft Heinz installed Steve Cahillane as chief executive on January 1, the same day Abel formally assumed the top role at Berkshire.While Kraft Heinz said it remains focused on maximising long-term shareholder value, the prospect of a Berkshire exit would mark the end of one of the conglomerate’s most high-profile and least successful investments of the past decade. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman expects global equities to post solid but slower gains in 2026, led by earnings growth and a broadening market rally. This is from earlier in January, posting ICYMI (like I did!).Summary:Goldman forecasts 11% global equity returns over the next 12 months.Gains are expected to be earnings-driven rather than valuation-led.Global growth and modest Fed easing support the outlook.Diversification across regions, styles and sectors remains key.No AI bubble seen despite intense investor focus.Global equities are expected to deliver solid, though more moderate, gains in 2026, with Goldman Sachs Research forecasting total returns of around 11% over the next 12 months, including dividends and measured in US dollars.After a powerful rally in 2025, Goldman argues the global equity bull market remains intact, supported by continued earnings growth and steady economic expansion across regions. While last year’s advance pushed valuations to historically elevated levels, the bank does not see conditions consistent with a major equity drawdown in the absence of a recession. Goldman expects the Federal Reserve to provide modest additional easing, helping to sustain growth without reigniting inflation pressures.Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman’s chief global equity strategist, said the current macro backdrop makes a sharp equity setback unlikely, even with valuations already stretched. He noted that equity cycles typically progress from despair to hope, then into a longer earnings-driven growth phase, before entering an optimism phase marked by rising confidence. Goldman’s analysis suggests markets are now in this late-cycle optimism phase, which can still support further upside but also introduces greater sensitivity to earnings disappointments.Unlike 2025, when multiple expansion contributed meaningfully to returns, Goldman expects 2026 performance to be driven primarily by fundamental profit growth rather than further valuation gains. The bank’s regional forecasts imply equity prices rising roughly 9% over the next year, with dividends lifting total returns to around 11%.Diversification is expected to remain a key theme. Geographic diversification paid off in 2025 as US equities underperformed several overseas markets for the first time in more than a decade, helped by a weaker dollar. Europe, Japan, China and broader Asian markets delivered stronger dollar-adjusted returns, supported by a mix of earnings recovery and valuation expansion.Goldman expects this convergence in growth-adjusted valuations between US and non-US markets to continue in 2026, even as absolute US valuations remain higher. The bank also sees increased scope for stock selection as correlations fall, creating opportunities for alpha generation.Sector leadership is expected to broaden further, with non-technology stocks benefiting from spillovers linked to artificial intelligence investment. While AI remains a dominant market theme, Goldman does not view current conditions as a speculative bubble, arguing that technology sector outperformance has been driven by sustained profit growth rather than excess valuation alone. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Guggenheim sees positive but lower US asset returns in 2026 as heavier supply and weaker foreign inflows weigh on bonds, equities and the dollar. Info via a Reuters interview. Summary:Guggenheim expects softer returns across US assets in 2026.Rising credit issuance may widen US bond spreads modestly.Higher rates allow opportunistic borrowing, boosting supply.Foreign investors are reallocating away from US assets.Equities and the dollar face headwinds despite positive fundamentals.Guggenheim Partners Investment Management is warning that returns across major US asset classes are likely to moderate in 2026, as heavier issuance, shifting foreign capital flows and a less supportive policy backdrop weigh on bonds, equities and the dollar.The asset manager expects a steady rise in US credit supply to place modest upward pressure on spreads this year. Steven Brown, Guggenheim’s chief investment officer for fixed income, said markets have already absorbed close to $300bn in US investment-grade issuance, aided by issuers’ ability to time deals opportunistically rather than borrowing out of necessity.Brown noted that while interest rates have stabilised, they remain well above levels seen for much of the past decade. That environment has encouraged companies to issue when market conditions allow, contributing to higher overall supply. As a result, credit fundamentals remain broadly constructive, but incremental issuance is likely to cap upside for spread tightening.Guggenheim argues that monetary policy is no longer the dominant driver of fixed-income performance, with supply dynamics and investor demand playing a more prominent role in shaping returns.The firm also flagged growing headwinds for US equities and the US dollar, pointing to signs that foreign investors are reallocating capital toward non-US opportunities. Anne Walsh, Guggenheim’s chief investment officer, said sovereign investors that previously favoured US Treasuries have increasingly shifted allocations toward gold, silver and other alternative assets, a trend that also weighs on the dollar.The more cautious outlook follows a strong 2025, when easing by the Federal Reserve and a resilient US economy delivered the strongest market returns since 2020. Heading into 2026, investors are reassessing whether a slower-moving Fed and looser fiscal policy can sustain that momentum.While Guggenheim’s base case still calls for positive returns across asset classes, the firm expects performance to fall short of last year’s levels, as supply-demand imbalances and softer foreign inflows limit upside. Not just politics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Wells Fargo sees limited global easing, with early Fed cuts driving near-term USD weakness before a second-half rebound. Summary:Wells Fargo expects two Fed rate cuts in March and June.Fed funds seen settling at 3.00%–3.25% before an extended hold.USD weakness expected early 2026, followed by H2 recovery.EM currencies likely to underperform during renewed dollar strength.Only Fed, BoE and Norges Bank seen cutting among G10.Analysts at Wells Fargo expect the Federal Reserve on hold at its January 27-28 meeting but to continue edging policy toward neutral in the first half of 2026, arguing that a still-softening labour market and improving inflation backdrop leave room for further rate cuts before an extended pause.The bank forecasts two 25bp reductions in the federal funds rate at the March and June meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, which would take the policy rate to a 3.00%–3.25% range. Wells Fargo characterises labour-market conditions as “modestly on the wrong side of full employment,” while recent inflation prints have been sufficiently encouraging to allow the Fed to continue normalising policy. After mid-year, the bank expects an extended hold as policymakers assess whether inflation continues to move sustainably toward target.On currencies, Wells Fargo maintains a bifurcated outlook for the US dollar. While the greenback has traded mixed at the start of 2026, the bank expects further downside pressure in the early part of the year, broadly aligned with anticipated Fed easing. However, Wells Fargo sees this weakness as temporary, forecasting a more durable and broad-based dollar recovery beginning in the second half of 2026.In that environment, the bank expects emerging market currencies to bear the brunt of renewed dollar strength later in the year, underperforming developed market peers as global financial conditions tighten again.Beyond the US, Wells Fargo argues that scope for monetary easing across G10 economies remains limited. The firm expects only a small group of central banks to cut rates in 2026, reflecting sticky inflation dynamics and constrained policy flexibility. In addition to the Fed, Wells Fargo sees easing from the Bank of England and the Norges Bank, while most other major central banks are expected to remain on hold.Overall, the outlook points to a front-loaded easing cycle in the US, a temporary dip in the dollar, and a more restrictive global monetary backdrop as 2026 progresses. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US plans modest but symbolic cuts to NATO command staffing, fuelling fresh unease in Europe over Washington’s strategic priorities. Washington Post had the info. Summary:US plans to cut around 200 positions from NATO command and intelligence bodies.Intelligence, special operations and maritime centres are among those affected.Reductions will mainly occur through attrition rather than recalls.Move aligns with US focus on the Western Hemisphere.Timing risks amplifying European anxiety over US commitment to NATO.The United States plans to reduce the number of personnel it assigns to several key NATO command and intelligence bodies, a move that is likely to sharpen European concerns over Washington’s long-term commitment to the alliance, according to officials familiar with the matter.US and European sources said the Trump administration has signalled to some European capitals that it will eliminate roughly 200 US positions from NATO entities involved in military planning, intelligence coordination and special operations. The cuts are expected to affect bodies including the UK-based NATO Intelligence Fusion Centre, the Allied Special Operations Forces Command in Brussels, and Portugal-based STRIKFORNATO, which oversees certain maritime operations.The changes are expected to be implemented largely through attrition, with the US declining to replace personnel as they rotate out of their posts, rather than through immediate recalls. About 400 US personnel are currently assigned to the NATO bodies affected, implying a reduction of roughly half.While the drawdown is small relative to the overall US military footprint in Europe, which totals around 80,000 personnel, the timing is politically sensitive. The alliance is already navigating one of its most diplomatically fraught periods in decades, amid renewed uncertainty over US strategic priorities.Officials said the staffing changes broadly align with the administration’s stated intention to reallocate military resources toward the Western Hemisphere. However, the move risks reinforcing perceptions in Europe that Washington is scaling back its operational engagement within NATO’s core structures.The decision comes against a backdrop of rising tensions triggered by President Donald Trump’s revived push to acquire Greenland, an unprecedented prospect of territorial pressure within the alliance. Trump has also recently reposted commentary on social media describing NATO as a threat to the United States, further unsettling European capitals.A NATO official sought to play down the impact, saying adjustments to US staffing levels are routine and noting that overall US troop levels in Europe remain elevated. Nonetheless, the symbolic weight of the cuts is likely to resonate far beyond their immediate military effect. Also, ps. Trump is speaking in Davos on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos from 13:30–14:15 GMTHe spoke Tuesday at a press conference. investingLive Americas market news wrap: US stock markets battered, yields rise This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Netflix beat Q4 estimates but warned higher content spend and acquisition costs will weigh on margins before growth re-accelerates.Summary:Q4 earnings and revenue modestly beat expectations, with strong free cash flow.Q1 operating income and margin guidance missed consensus.Netflix plans a 10% increase in 2026 content spending, pressuring margins.Warner deal adds $275m in costs and triggers a pause in buybacks.Advertising revenue seen doubling in 2026, with stronger 2H income growth.Netflix delivered a modest earnings beat in the December quarter but struck a cautious tone on near-term profitability, warning that higher content spending and acquisition-related costs will weigh on margins through 2026.The streaming giant reported Q4 EPS of $0.56, narrowly ahead of expectations and up sharply from a year earlier, while revenue of $12.05bn also topped forecasts. Free cash flow came in well above estimates at $1.87bn, underscoring Netflix’s still-strong cash generation despite rising investment.Looking ahead, however, guidance disappointed at the margin level. Netflix sees Q1 revenue broadly in line with consensus but forecast operating income and margins below expectations, reflecting higher production spending and incremental costs tied to its pending acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery assets. Management said the transaction will add around $275m in costs this year and has prompted a pause in share buybacks to preserve balance-sheet flexibility.For 2026, Netflix guided to revenue of $50.7bn–$51.7bn, broadly in line with market expectations, but operating margin guidance of 31.5% fell short of consensus. Free cash flow is seen at roughly $11bn, slightly below estimates, as the company plans to lift content spending by around 10% following approximately $18bn spent on programming in 2025.Strategically, Netflix reiterated confidence in its longer-term growth profile. Management said operating income growth in the second half of 2026 is expected to exceed the first half, while advertising revenue is projected to roughly double versus 2025 levels as its ad-supported tier scales globally.Subscriber momentum remained solid, with Netflix ending the year with more than 325 million subscribers, up nearly 8% year on year. Still, the outlook reinforced investor concerns that elevated content investment and integration costs could cap upside to margins in the near term, even as revenue growth and cash generation remain robust. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Well, this is what you call an empty data calendar, nothing listed from APac at all.That API data listed will not be released until 24 hours later given the US holiday on Monday. The Bloomberg calendar does list minor items, unlikely to shift around markets much: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Shares of Nvidia are down 3.8% as the Nasdaq falls to the lows of the day. The index is down nearly 2% as some of its largest members come under pressure:AVGO -5.1%AMZN -3.3%TSLA -3.0%META -2.3%GOOG -1.7%Some of the selling is in anticipation of Trump's press conference today. It's running late but the fear is that he will say something inflammatory. The comments from some quarters in Europe also suggest that they're willing to draw a line, including fighting back on tariffs. That can all change quickly but there is some angst out there.It would be unfair to put it all on tariffs and Trump. Japanese bond yields surged today and that's pushed global fixed income lower, including US 30s up 7 bps to 4.91%. That's a drag on rate-sensitive sectors, including home building. The XHB home builder ETF is down 1.9%.Money is flowing into gold with prices up $90 today to a fresh record at $4760.In other equity markets:S&P 500 -1.7%Russell 2000 -0.6%DJIA -1.5%Toronto TSX Comp -0.7%Netflix reports earnings after the bell and shares are currently up 0.4%, presumably as some shorts are covered. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.