Fed cuts rate to 4.00–4.25% because of labor market situation in USInterest rate cuts in the Eurozone are in question due to inflation being under controlNegative divergence has appeared on EURUSD, which can be a sign of correction aheadFED Policy The United States Federal Reserve has decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the main rate to the 4.00-4.25% range. This is the first change after a nine-month pause in the cycle, and the decision itself is precautionary. The Fed, guided by a "risk management" approach, did not react to a specific economic shock but acted prudently amid increasing uncertainty.A new element of communication was the growing attention paid to the labor market situation – despite relatively stable inflation and unemployment, a slowdown in the pace of employment and limited recruitment activity are visible, which may indicate the market's susceptibility to deterioration. Non Farm Payrolls (in thousands), source: Bloomberg ECB Policy Meanwhile, in Europe, during the Eurogroup meeting in Copenhagen, members of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, Madis Muller and Mario Centeno, presented the ECB's monetary policy stance. The current policy remains moderately accommodative, and interest rates – including the deposit rate at 2% – have not changed in recent months. President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the ECB is at an opportune moment to achieve its 2% inflation target. Madis Muller noted that inflation is currently "more or less on target," and the current level of rates supports economic growth, which in the coming quarters will be more dependent on domestic demand. Mario Centeno, in turn, pointed out the current risks to growth and inflation, which he believes are trending downwards. He did not rule out a future interest rate cut, although he currently sees no urgent need for it. The ECB forecasts inflation at 1.9% in 2027 and GDP growth of 1.3%. Structural challenges, such as higher tariffs from the US, weak industrial demand, and a growing propensity to save, limit the potential for economic recovery in the euro area. HICP ECB Projections, source: European Central Bank EUR/USD EURUSD, daily timeframe, source: TradingView In the foreign exchange market, the EURUSD pair has been in an upward trend since mid-January, when the exchange rate rose from 1.0178 to 1.1918, representing an almost 17% increase. Despite this, technical analysis indicates the possibility of a correction – a negative divergence has formed between the price and the RSI indicator. In the region of 1.14, there is important technical support – both horizontal and resulting from previous corrections within the trend.A decline to this level could be merely a natural correction within a broad upward trend. Potential doubts about further US rate cuts could accelerate such a descent without disturbing the long-term upward structure. In turn, maintaining the current monetary policy in the euro area may strengthen the common currency's fundamentals against the dollar in the medium term. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory for a third straight day. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3820, up 0.18% on the day.Canada's retail sales slideCanada's retail sales declined by 0.8% m/m in July, a sharp dowrturn from the 1.6% gain in June. The volatility in retail sales reflects uncertainty over the US tariffs, which has affected consumer spending. August is expected to show a rebound, with a preliminary estimate of a 1% gain, which would make up for the July decline. US unemployment claims slipThere are no US releases today but there was positive news from the employment front on Thursday. Unemployment claims fell to 231 thouand last week, down from 264 thousand a week earlier, which was the highest reading since October 2021. The sharp spike in claims, together with soft nonfarm payrolls, had elevated concerns about the health of the US labor market.The latest unemployment claims release indicates that layoff are low, but hiring remains weak as the demand for workers has slowed. The Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on the labor market and Fed Chair Powell cited the downside risk to employment as the reason for the rate cut, the first since December 2024. USDCAD is testing resistance at 1.3808. Next, there is resistance at 1.38211.3796 and 1.3783 are providing support USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, September 19, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen climbed 0.50% earlier against the US dollar but was unable to consolidate these gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.92, down 0.04% on the day.Bank of Japan delivers hawkish holdThe Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.50% at today's meeting. The non-move was widely expected by the markets. What was a surprise was the split vote, as two of the nine members voted in favor of a rate hike, indicating some support for a more hawkish montary policy.Governor Ueda has been cautious and has the markets guessing as to when the BoJ will raise rates. The markets have priced in a 59% chance of a rate hike before the end of the year, up from 50% a week ago, according to LSEG. The policy statement noted that the domestic economy had "recovered moderately" but was still showing signs of weakness. Members also expressed concern that exports will be hurt by US tariffs, with Japan facing a 15% tarriff on most of its exports to the US.On the inflation front, the statement said that underlying inflation is weak but is expected to increase gradually and reach the 2% inflation target.After years of deflation, prices are moving higher, which has led to expectations that a rate hike is just a question of timing. Consumer inflation is running between 2.5-3%, above the BoJ's 2% target. The central bank has stressed that it wants to see sustainable underling inflation at around 2% before the next rate hike.The BoJ is also concerned about the political turmoil in Japan. Prime Minister Ishiba recently resigned and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is holding an election to choose a new leader.USD/JPY Technical USDJPY tested support at 1.4777 and 147.51 earlierThere is resistance at 148.12 and 148.38 USDJPY 4-Hour Chart, September 19, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00–4.25% after a nine-month pause, pairing the move with a cautious message.Powell framed the decision as “risk management,” downplaying a rapid cutting cycle.Statement language shifted toward rising “risks on the employment side,” even as inflation and jobless rates have nudged higher.The new dot plot trimmed the 2025 median to 3.6%, implying two more 25 bp cuts this year but with wide dispersion.A small move with outsized signaling power The week on markets centered on the Federal Reserve’s long-anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut, which lowered the federal funds target range to 4.00–4.25% after nine months on hold. The mechanics were expected; the weight came from how the decision was delivered and justified. Chair Jerome Powell chose prudence over drama, emphasizing a “risk-management” approach and tamping down expectations for a rapid succession of cuts.A near-unanimous vote—and a unified image The vote was almost unanimous. New Governor Stephen Miran favored a larger 50 bp cut, but previously hawkish voices—Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—joined the majority this time. That alignment reinforces the Fed’s image as coherent and independent, a point that matters in Washington’s politically charged climate.Subtle but telling shift in the statement The post-meeting statement made a nuanced pivot: the Fed now highlights rising “risks on the employment side.” In other words, even with a slight uptick in both inflation and unemployment, labor-market health is becoming the pivotal balance point. Slower job gains since spring, alongside a market with low hiring and low layoffs, suggest a fragile equilibrium—one that a wave of layoffs could quickly tip into a higher jobless rate.Powell’s press conference: risk management, not heroics Powell labeled the move a “precautionary cut.” He stressed the Fed’s dual risks: safeguarding maximum employment while preventing too-high inflation from becoming entrenched. In a setting where no path is risk-free, he argued, big, abrupt moves could do more harm than good. Hence the preference for incremental steps and maximum flexibility.The dot plot: lower median, wide uncertainty The new dot plot nudged the median policy rate for end-2025 down to 3.6% from 3.9% in July. On paper, that path leaves room for two additional 25 bp cuts this year. But the range—from 2.9% to 4.4%—underscores just how uncertain the outlook remains. Policymakers see no “strong justification” for larger moves, reinforcing a small-steps strategy that can adapt to incoming data. Dot plot chart, median of FOMC members' expectations regarding the future path of interest rates, source: Bloomberg The takeaway This week’s story wasn’t just the cut—it was the calibration of the message: caution over haste, stability over spectacle. From here, each jobs and inflation report will shape the pace, not the direction, of policy. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - BoJ Deliver Hawkish Hold Most Read: USD/JPY Technical: USD strength capped (again) below 148.95 range resistance, BoJ keeps rate hike hopes aliveA record-breaking global stock rally was slowed down after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its intention to sell off its large holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).This decision negatively impacted Asian markets, causing the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to slip by 0.4% and the Nikkei-225 Stock Average to drop about 0.7%. These declines reversed earlier gains that had been fueled by four key U.S. stock benchmarks all closing at all-time highs in unison for the first time since November 2021.Japanese stocks, in particular, saw their earlier gains erased after the BoJ revealed its plan to sell ETFs on a scale similar to its disposal of stocks bought from banks in the 2000s. The central bank's policy rate was, however, kept at 0.5% after a 7-2 vote.Despite this, Asian shares were headed for a weekly gain.Leading up to a phone call between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, Chinese blue chips CSI300 saw a small increase of 0.6% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng experienced a slight dip of 0.1%.Investors were carefully considering several key issues that could be discussed during the call. These included a potential deal regarding the popular social media app TikTok, Chinese tech giant Huawei's recent announcement about its chip plans, and an order from Beijing telling Chinese tech companies not to buy AI chips from Nvidia.UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates British retail sales grew by 0.5% in August 2025 compared to the previous month, which was the same rate of growth as July's revised figure. This was better than the expected 0.3% increase. The main drivers of this growth were strong sales at clothing stores, online retailers, and specialty food shops. Retailers noted that good weather was a major reason for the increased spending.However, the overall growth was slightly held back by a 2% drop in car fuel sales, as the prices for petrol and diesel were higher.Looking at a longer timeframe, sales over the three months leading up to August fell by only 0.1%, which is a much smaller decline than the 0.6% drop seen in the three months to July.Compared to August of last year, sales were up 0.7%, but this was a slower rate of increase than the 1.8% rise in July. When looking at the three months compared to the same period in 2024, sales were up 0.8%, but they are still 2.1% below the levels seen before the pandemic.Online sales also showed positive momentum, rising by 0.4% from the previous month and by 4.7% compared to the same time last year. This marked the seventh consecutive month of growth for online shopping. Source: UK ONS European Open - Shares Steady After Busy Week European stock markets were quiet on Friday, and they are likely to end a busy week slightly down. This week included important decisions from major central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, was mostly unchanged at 554.89.Technology stocks took a break from their recent rally, with companies like BE Semiconductor and ASML both seeing a drop of about 0.9%.Despite earlier gains, the STOXX index is still heading for a small weekly loss. This is due to ongoing concerns about high levels of government debt in the region and the potential negative impact of US tariffs on company profits in the coming months.In addition to the US Fed, the central bank of Norway also lowered its interest rates by 0.25%, while the Bank of England chose to keep its rates unchanged this week.In company news, Stabilus, a supplier for the industrial and automotive sectors, saw its shares fall by 2.8% after it announced a plan to cut 450 jobs globally as part of a cost-saving effort.Kuehne+Nagel shares dropped by 5.3% after Deutsche Bank lowered its rating on the Swiss logistics company from "Buy" to "Hold."Finally, the UK's Close Brothers saw a 6.7% slide in its shares after the lender announced it would postpone the release of its preliminary 2025 financial results by one week.On the FX front, On Friday, the Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar. This happened because, even though the Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rates unchanged, two of its board members voted in favor of a rate increase. At the same time, the central bank also announced plans to sell off its holdings of exchange-traded funds and real estate trusts.Meanwhile, the euro weakened slightly, falling by 0.1% to $1.1773. It gave back some of its weekly gains after hundreds of thousands of people in France participated in protests against government spending cuts on Thursday.The British pound dropped by 0.3% to $1.3512. This decline followed news that Britain's government borrowing had increased much more than official predictions, which are used to create the government's tax and spending budget. A day earlier, the Bank of England had kept its interest rates the same and decided to slow down the pace at which it sells off its government bonds.The New Zealand dollar, also known as the kiwi, fell by 0.4% to $0.5861. This extended its losses after experiencing its largest one-day drop since April, following the release of disappointing economic growth data for the second quarter.The offshore Chinese yuan was largely stable at 7.1111 per dollar, while the Australian dollar slipped by 0.3% to $0.6594.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs On Friday, oil prices dropped slightly. This happened because of concerns that people in the United States might not be using as much fuel. These worries overshadowed the hope that the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of the year would lead to more economic activity and, therefore, more fuel consumption.Specifically, the price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 17 cents to $67.27 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped by 19 cents to $63.38 per barrel.For more information on Oil, please read WTI Oil Rallies 1% After Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Oil Facilities, Russia Sanction Calls GrowGold prices remained unchanged on Friday as investors waited for more information about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. This pause came after the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower its interest rate by 0.25%, a move that did not fully satisfy investors who were hoping for more aggressive rate cuts in the coming months.The price of spot gold was nearly flat at $3,646.29 per ounce. This is after the price had reached a record high of $3,707.40 just two days earlier on Wednesday.For more information on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Soars to Breach $3700/oz. FOMC Meeting Next, Will the Rally Continue?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session is a quiet one.The main event for the day will be a potential call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping which may shed further light on US-China relations.Beyond that we will also hear the first comments from new Federal Reserve policymaker Stephen Miran which could stoke some volatility. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX bounced yesterday printing a bullish engulfing daily candle close.This also resulted in a morningstar candlestick pattern being formed which hints at further upside.There is significant resistance just up ahead with the 20,50 and 100-day MAs all resting within a 200 point range between the 23800 and 24032 mark.The DAX will need to gain acceptance above these levels if the rally higher is to continue.The RSI period-14 is also attempting to break above the 50 level which would signal a shift in momentum in favor of bulls. A rejection here could be a sign that bulls are not yet in control and could lead to a retest of the recent lows at 23284 and potentially support at 23471.DAX Index Daily Chart, September 19. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 18Today's story was one of a FOMC rate decision that American Markets loved. Between a comeback in the US Dollar and Nasdaq rallying to new highs, traders loved the atmosphere.Tech stocks led the charge after the acquisition news that Nvidia had acquired a stake in Intel, propelling related names like CrowdStrike and Synopsys higher.Still, the Dow Jones closed near the same lows seen during the FOMC’s intraday down-wick, a dynamic that will be worth watching in the coming sessions. By contrast, the Russell 2000 marked fresh all-time highs—a first since November 2024—underscoring the rotation into smaller caps.The underlying theme is one of a Fed independence that finally wasn't gone too far (for now at least).Powell’s not-so-dovish speech reassured US investors that the central bank decision-making is still guided by economic fundamentals rather than political pressure.Repeating what I mentioned on this Gold/Silver piece released earlier, Bowman and Waller, early birds for Rate cut calls got proven right by a degrading labor market which indeed gave them further credibility.For the US Dollar, there is still plenty of ground to cover before reaching pre-August highs, but the price action no longer carries the bearish tone that dominated over the summer.On the geopolitical side, President Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer appeared in a joint conference, reiterating alignment on the Russia-Ukraine war and broader global issues.While differences emerged on some details, the talks highlighted stronger US-UK unity.Bloomberg also reported that European LNG purchases from Russia are set to be phased out at a faster pace, reflecting the region’s accelerated shift away from Moscow’s energy supply. Read More:Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) find selling pressure from the post-FOMC stronger US dollarUS Stock Market rally: Fed’s 25 bps cut, Nvidia-Intel Deal, and strong Jobless Claims fuel gainsNZDUSD weakens sharply after the FOMC, losing 2% in two daysCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cryptos and tech related risk-assets have performed well overall today, as the mood got pretty optimistic from the latest rate cut.However, Long-end bonds are getting hammered from higher issuance and a further inverted-yield curve.Commodities also didn't like their session very much, a tighter USD is the culprit of this.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 18 – Source: OANDA Labs The largest outstander from today was the Kiwi which got absolutely murdered from the huge miss in their GDP data (-0.9% vs -0.3%) expected, which directly put back more cuts on the table for the RBNZ (check out our most recent NZDUSD analysis!)For the rest, the theme is one of a comeback from the US Dollar which finishes the strongest of majors – An update to our most recent DXY analysis is more than warranted.For the rest, The Canadian Dollar held a decent performance today – Forex seems to get back to interesting points after all the Central Bank Rate decisions.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not entirely over for JPY traders and with also a bit of data for NZD:At 18:45, we’ll see the New Zealand trade balance (−$3.94B prev.) and from the UK, GfK Consumer Confidence (−18 cons. vs −17 prev.).Shortly after, Japan releases August CPI (19:30) : headline (3.1% prev.), ex food/energy (3.4% prev.), and ex fresh food (3.1% cons. vs 2.7% prev.) which may preview some changes to the closely followed by the BoJ rate decision (0.5% hold expected) and policy statement, with Markets still on the outlook for any communication regarding future hikes.Friday also has some decent data points, particularly from Europe with German PPI (−1.8% YoY consensus) and UK retail sales (MoM 0.4% cons) both releasing at 2:00 A.M.The BoJ press conference follows at 2:30, key for yen direction and will be closely watch by participants (even as they wake up the day after) – Carry trades are still into play!Later in the day, focus shifts to North America with Canada retail sales at 8:30 A.M. ET (−0.8% MoM estimate) and Fed’s Daly speech closing the week. Safe Trades in this huge Central Bank week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold and Silver are subject to immediate pressure as the US Dollar regains strength and reputation after yesterday's FOMC meeting.The challenged independence of the Fed was a major driver behind the immense rally metals enjoyed from late August into early September, as Powell’s shift in tone from the Jackson Hole conference cast doubt on the Fed’s consistency amid still high inflation.Yet the dovish stance advocated by Bowman and Waller, seen as President Trump's protege-appointees ahead of the Sep FOMC—was vindicated by subsequent NFP misses and the downward revisions in BLS data.This is leading to the Federal Reserve regaining back some of its lost confidence throughout the past few months. Dollar Index and Metals comparative Performance since beginning August, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver rallied 18.67% from its July 31st trough to its Tuesday peak, while Gold surged from $3,268 on July 30th to fresh all-time highs at $3,707.Despite the ongoing pullback, prices remain near their highs.Still, the balance is tilting towards a more neutral trend: With Powell delivering a less dovish message than markets had priced in, the renewed resilience of the US Dollar could set the stage for tighter price action ahead.Let's dive into two timeframe charts for both Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to see where the current trading takes us and where to look going forward. Read More:US Stock Market rally: Fed’s 25 bps cut, Nvidia-Intel Deal, and strong Jobless Claims fuel gainsNZDUSD weakens sharply after the FOMC, losing 2% in two daysUSD/CAD Outlook: Head and Shoulder Pattern in Play as Fundamentals Provide Interesting DilemmaGold and Silver two-timeframe pictureGold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold responded remarkably to the technical-Fibonacci induced resistance mentioned in our most recent Gold analysis.We precedently expressed how overbought levels don't imply tops, particularly amid strong performance and momentum.However, Daily RSI is starting to shape downwards and may not help to sustain the current levels.There is still an ongoing consolidation that is happening from the intermediate lows, which demands a closer look.Gold (XAUUSD) 2H Chart and levels Gold (XAUUSD) 2H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Selling momentum is currently stalling but the bigger timeframe outlook is showing signs of slowdown within the current trend, particularly when seeing the broken upward trendline that led to the new $3,707 All-time Highs.Look for breakouts either above or below the Micro support and resistance zones, with their levels detailed just below. Levels of interest for Gold trading:Support:Micro support $3,620 to $3,630Previous ATH and now long-term Pivot around $3,500 (+/- $15)Previous Range Highs $3,400 to $3,450 (minor support)$3,300 Major Support$3,000 Main psychological levelResistance and potential technical targets (due to all-time highs, can only use potential targets):Micro resistance $3,660 to $3,675FOMC and All-time highs Highs $3,707Fibonacci-Extension 1 from April Lows to April highs ($3,640 to $3,705) (Immediate resistance)Potential, Fibonacci-Extension 2 from 2018 to Oct 2024 induced target: $3,750 to $3,815 (Purple square on Weekly)Silver (XAGUSD) Daily Chart Silver (XAGUSD) Daily Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since our most recent Silver Analysis, prices did effectively break out of its daily upward channel but found technical resistance (to complement the fundamental resistance) at the higher bound of the Higher timeframe channel (in Blue).Look at the Daily RSI also showing some type of divergence – Overall, despite the action still hanging at the highs, it looks like some intermediate correction might come into play.Let's have a closer look.Silver (XAGUSD) 2H Chart and levels Silver (XAGUSD) 2H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The selling from this yesterday to this morning's session has stalled a bit and short-term momentum is back to neutral.Prices are now contained between an short-term resistance and support zone, in the ongoing $41.20 to $42 range.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:$42 psychological level and micro-resistance50-Period MA 50 42.17$43 to $44 resistance (Most recent peak $42.97)August 2011 $44.25 topSupport Levels:Micro resistance around $41.20$39.50 to $40 key pivot zone$38.75 to $39 Key levels2012 Highs Support around 37.50Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US indices are riding an intense wave of optimism following the Federal Reserve’s 25-bps rate cut, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all pushing higher. (As I write this piece, some profit-taking might be into play, watch the daily highs for a further push).Nvidia (NVDA) sparked extra momentum after announcing it would acquire part of Intel’s (INTC) equity, sending Intel stock soaring over 25% in early session trading. Tech peers like CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Synopsys (SNPS) also extend gains, underscoring a broader sector rally. US Equity heatmap, look at the +26.30% (Intel) – September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Powell’s speech painted a not-so-bleak picture of the US economy, while the dot plot still signaled 50 bps of easing potential through year-end 2025. Combined with stronger-than-expected Jobless Claims this morning (231K vs 240K exp), bulls found another reason to drive risk assets higher. With momentum back on their side, traders will be watching closely to see if equities can sustain this rally until the end of the week.Data dependency was once again highlighted throughout yesterday's FOMC and will be back on the front lines for participants' watchlists. The FED Independence seems to have gained back some ground after yesterday's decision, but it will be key to see what FED members say looking forward.Let's take a look at intraday charts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones.Technical outlook and levels for the 3 Main US Indices All three indices are in a seemingly unstoppable move since the beginning of September. Let's try to look at the extent of the moves and potential levels of interest for each index as price discovery continues.S&P 500 4H chart and levels S&P 500 4H Chart , September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 marked another record high at 6,669 just this morning but has started to show some slowing in momentum – bears just rejected trading below the immediate upward trendline.The FOMC lows are still very far from current trading (6,562) and will act as a key Pivot point for momentum strength between bulls and bears. The wick from yesterday's volatile trading actually tested the 50-Period MA, which will give it some extra emphasis looking forward.S&P 500 Trading Levels:Resistance LevelsDaily highs 6,669 (new ATH)Higher timeframe potential resistance between 6,650 and 6,700 level (1.618 from April lows, currently testing)6,700 psychological levelSupport LevelsFOMC lows 6,562 and MA 506,490 to 6,512 pivot6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Nasdaq 4H chart and levels Nasdaq 4H Chart , September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq was onto a heavy upward train, up 7.06% from trough to peak since beginning September right after showing hesitant signs.Since, positive news throughout tech and ever-bigger acquisitions have propelled the tech-heavy index to new all-time highs (24,602) – however, with some Fibonacci targets being attained, profit-taking is currently going through and will have to be monitored.For bear momentum, watch a close below 24,350 – For Bull continuation, watch a close above the ATH.Nasdaq technical levels of interestResistance LevelsCurrent daily highs (24,602)Daily Resistance (from August 20 lows) 24,550 to 24,600 (immediate)Potential Resistance 2 fib-Extension (from August lows) 24,800Support LevelsFib-projection now Momentum pivot 24,350Previous ATH zone turning pivot (23,950 to 24,020)23,500 support23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportDow Jones 4H chart and levels Dow Jones 4H Chart , September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bulls are getting back in control after yesterday's hawkish-tone led to some profit-taking in the index.The current session is a strong one, but some sellers are currently taking some momentum back. Buyers are once again fighting to get out of the upward trendline of the rising wedge formation and are very close to it – A level to watch in that aspect would be a daily close above the All-time high level formed at yesterday's announcement: 46,425.Watch momentum as the session moves forward.Levels for Dow Jones trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high and Rising wedge breakout: 46,425 1.618 from April correction potential resistance 46,400 to 46,830High of channel and 1.618% Fib of July move 47,000 to 47,160 (potential resistance)Support Levels46,000 Momentum Pivot and 50-period MA (45,807)45,283 previous significant ATHKey Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound has posted losses on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3551, down 0.54% on the day.Bank of England maintains rates at 4% The Bank of England stayed on the sidelines at today's meeting, maintaining interest rates at 4.0%. This followed a quarter-point cut in August. The decision was anticipated by the markets and the British pound is showing limited movement. The 7-2 vote saw two members vote for a quarter-point cut. Last month's decision to lower rates was decided by a 5-4 vote and took an unprecedented two rounds. The split votes reflect dissension within the BoE with regard to the Bank's future monetary policy.The BoE has been trying to balance rising inflation, which supports holding rates, with the slowdown in the jobs market, which is putting pressure on the central bank to lower rates and ease economic conditions. The BoE cannot ignore inflation, which rose to 3.8% in August, close to double the BoE's target of 2%. Unless inflation slows markedly, the BoE may have to wait until 2026 to lower rates. Governor Bailey tried to put a positive spin on high inflation, saying he expected it to return to target, but the inflation still remained a threat and future cuts would have to be made "gradually and carefully".How bad is the employment market? In the minutes of the meeting, the MPC said that its forecast showed employment growth at zero, which it said was partly due to the increase in employer national insurance contributions.Fed lowers rates for first time since December 2024 Federal Reserve lowers ratesThe Federal Reserve lowered rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. The decision, which was widely expected, was the first rate cut since December 2024.The rate statement cited the cooling labor market as the main reason behind the rate cut. In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his concern about the deteriorating job market and said that the risk of higher and more persistent inflation has eased.Perhaps the highlight of the meeting was the 'dot plot', which charts the expected rate path of members who participated at the meeting. The dot plot indicated that most members expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year, which means the Fed is in a dovish mood.GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.3617 and 1.3573 and is testing 1.3552. Below, there is support at 1.3508There is resistance at 1.3638 and 1.3682 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Kiwi’s slide has been one that hasn't been seen in a while, with NZDUSD dropping 2% in just two sessions. The pair had initially climbed ahead of the FOMC, driven by dovish concerns around the Fed and sudden Dollar-hedging that briefly pressured the DXY (sending the US Dollar down, hence the pair shooting upwards). However, Powell’s balanced tone quickly flipped that narrative, erasing the priced-in dovishness observed in the SEP, dot plot, and FOMC statement.“You can think of this, in a way, as a risk management cut,” Powell noted, striking a cautious stance around future cuts that steadied the USD. There are still 25 bps of cuts priced at each of the two meetings left in 2025. Strong US Jobless Claims (231k vs 240K exp) this morning reinforced that shift, further fueling a V-shaped reversal in the greenback. Coupled with New Zealand’s atrocious GDP miss (-0.9% vs -0.3% q/q), the Kiwi was left in dismay, driving the pair sharply lower.The current move is reflecting the repricing of more cuts for the RBNZ as the data has been very volatile for New Zealand throughout the year. Expectations for a rate cut at the RBNZ upcoming meeting were at 82% last week and a 25 bps cut is now fully priced, with some extra premium in case of a larger 50 bps.The NZ OCR is at 3% and the upcoming meeting will be happening on October 8th.Let's have a look at NZDUSD through a multi-timeframe outlook to see where this takes the major pair. Read More: EUR/USD Technical: Euro bullish trend intact despite 1.2% sell-off after FOMCMarkets Today: Gold Retreats, Equities Choppy as Markets Digest Fed Decision, DAX Up 1%. BoE Meeting Up NextBank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Preview: Maintaining the Status Quo. Implications for USD/JPYA parenthesis on the DXY chart: Look at its V-Shape reversal since yesterday! DXY 1H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView NZDUSD 8H Chart NZDUSD 8H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The downward shaping RSI right ahead of the FOMC was well located: Prices reached the 0.60 resistance before getting slammed lower as the Powell press-conference started.RSI has shot down lower catching up with the ongoing move – The selling is showing no pity to the bulls, with prices consolidating slightly at the 0.59 Support which got swiftly broken.Some immediate but small scale mean-reversion is stopping the descent, but the price action is brutal.NZDUSD 2H Chart NZDUSD 2H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView At its extreme, the ongoing move downwards is of about 1350 pips or 2.25% in the pair from peak to trough. Particularly after very slow FX trading, such data officially reinstores volatility for the end of this year.Get ready to see more volatile data and price swings for NZDUSD and other pairs looking forward.Levels to watch for in NZDUSD trading: Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 0.600.5950 Main Pivot now Resistance200-period MA 0.59150 Support Levels0.59 (+/- 150 pips) Support (broken)Current session lows 0.58725September lows 0.583300.58 Key SupportWatch for further volatile swings looking forward and stay in touch with the latest data as every central banks will be looking at the news for their decision-making.The Dollar index is reaching an interesting level and NZDUSD is taking a breather, stay locked in for upcoming action.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The euro has continued to rally against the greenback from the 1 August 2025 low of 1.1392 and broke above its recent 52-week high of 1.1830 printed on 1 July 2025, within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since 13 January 2025The EUR/USD hit a 4-year high of 1.1919 on Wednesday, 17 September, at the onset of the FOMC announcement of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut to bring down the Fed funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, and the release of the latest summary of economic projections (dot plot) that indicates two more projected interest rate cuts of 25 bps each before 2025 ends.Post FOMC sell-off due to a less “dovish” Fed Chair Powell’s press conference Thereafter, the EUR/USD erased all its early intraday gains and closed lower by -0.5% at the end of Wednesday, 17 September 2025, US session due to a less “dovish” Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.Powell described the latest policy move as a “risk management” cut, emphasising that the Fed will remain data-dependent and proceed “meeting by meeting.” This stance reduced expectations of a deeper, new cycle of monetary policy easing.The EUR/USD extended its decline in today’s Asia session, hitting a low of 1.1780, a drop of 1.2% from yesterday’s post-FOMC high of 1.1919.The Fed funds futures market is still implying three interest rate cuts in 2026 Fig. 1: Aggregated FOMC meeting probabilities on Fed funds rate as of 18 Sep 2025 (Source: CME FedWatch tool) Despite Fed Chair Powell’s “meeting by meeting” rhetoric and the latest updated dot plot projections that show only a 25-bps cut in 2026, market participants in the Fed funds futures market are still expecting at least three interest rate cuts of 25 bps each in 2025 to bring the Fed funds rate to 2.75%-3.00% in 2026, according to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool (see Fig. 1).A continuation of dovish expectations implied by the Fed funds futures market is likely to cap the strength of the US dollar, in turn, creating a positive feedback loop back into the EUR/USD.Let’s now examine the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch on the EUR/USD. Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 18 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) The current decline of 1.2% seen in the EUR/USD from its post-FOMC high of 1.1919 is likely a minor corrective decline within its ongoing minor uptrend phase in place since the 1 August 2025 low of 1.1392.Bullish bias on the EUR/USD above 1.1790/1.1770 key short-term pivotal support, and a break above 1.1860 sees a retest on 1.1910 before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 1.1970/1.2000 (Fibonacci extension and the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The EUR/USD has shaped an hourly bullish reversal candlestick at the 1.1790/1.1770 key short-term support.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout from its parallel descending resistance after it hit its oversold level in today’s Asian session. These observations indicate a short-term bullish momentum revival for the EUR/USD.The yield spread between the 2-year German Bund and the US Treasury note has continued to trend higher (narrowing) from -1.63% on 16 September to -1.54% at the time of writing.This development indicates a relative decline in the yield attractiveness of the 2-year US Treasury versus its German counterpart, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the US dollar against the euro.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 1.1770 key short-term support invalidates the bullish scenario on the EUR/USD to see a deeper minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.1700 (also the 20-day moving average) and 1.1675 (also the 50-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The New Zealand dollar has posted sharp losses on Thursday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5904, down 0.97%.New Zealand's GDP slides by 0.97%New Zealand's economy took a tumble in the second quarter, declining 0.9% q/q. This was a sharp downturn from the Q1 gain of 0.9% and below the market estimate of -0.3%. The economy has contracted in three of the last five quarters. Annually, GDP declined 0.6%, unchanged from the first quarter and well below the market estimate of 0%. The New Zealand dollar is down 1% on the soft GDP reading.The GDP report showed broad weakness across the economy as construction and manufacturing posted declines and services were flat. The economy has been hurt by weak global demand and US tariffs on New Zealand, which have been set at 15%. The weak GDP data will put pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower rates before the end of the year. The RBNZ meets next month and the markets have fully priced in a rate cut, with an 82% chance of a a quarter-cut and an 18% likelihood of a half-point reduction.Fed delivers with rate cutThe Federal Reserve lowered rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. The decision, which was widely expected, was the first rate cut since December 2024. For the second straight time, the vote was not unanimous, as one member voted for a half-point cut.The rate statement pointed a finger at the cooling labor market as the main reason behind the cut. In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell reiterated concern about the deteriorating job market and said that the risk of higher and more persistent inflation has eased.Perhaps the highlight of the meeting was the 'dot plot', which charts the expected rate path of members who participated at the meeting. The dot plot indicated that most members expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year.NZD/USD Technical NZDUSD has pushed below support at 0.5973 and 0.5939 and is testing support at 0.5915There is resistance at 0.5957 and 0.6031 NZDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 18, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Preview: Maintaining the Status Quo. Implications for USD/JPYUSD/CAD is at a crossroads in many ways and the technicals are showing some interesting patterns. Given that both the Fed and BoC chose to cut rates today could the technicals lead the way in the weeks to come?There is a possibility that the technicals could dominate for now but moving forward I expect the pace of rate cuts to come into play as well as the performance of Oil prices, which will impact the Canadian Dollar.Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and following the trendline breakout at the end of July and rally to just above the 1.3900 mark, USD/CAD has been stuck in a range.We do have the formation of a head and shoulder pattern which has now formed but price is bouncing higher at the time of writing.Now a break of the neckline at 1.3723 and candle close below could trigger a potential 200-pip selloff and retest of the 1.3500 psychological level.A bounce from here though will face resistance at the 1.3900 handle before the psychological 1.4000 handle comes into focus.The 100-day MA is serving as support at present with the daily candle closing back above after a candle closed below the 100-day MA yesterday.Looking at the RSI and it is hovering below the 50 neutral level, a sign that bearish momentum is leading the way for now.So will we get a break or bounce?USD/CAD Daily Chart, September 18, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Fundamental Factors Ahead - Will Rate Differentials and Trade Agreements Play a Role? The Bank of Canada cut its interest rate by a quarter of a percent today, which was widely expected. They didn't provide much information about what they plan to do in the future. The Bank of Canada's rate is now 2.50%, which is still much lower than the US Federal Reserve's rate is, following the Fed rate cut today.It makes sense that the Bank of Canada is hesitant to promise more rate cuts right now. However, based on their overall view of the economy and inflation risks, it seems likely that this won't be the final rate cut in this cycle.However the Fed are still expected to cut rates more aggressively than the BoC over the next 12 months. According to the implied rates updated post FOMC and BoC meetings, markets are pricing in around 134.5 bps of rate cuts through September 2026, while for the BoC markets are only expecting 26.9 bps of cuts. Source LSEG This should work in favor of Canadian Dollar strength against the US Dollar in the months ahead.Of course other factors could come into play such as the performance of Oil prices, tariff developments between the US and Canada including the USMCA renegotiation.The agreement that is in place is protecting Canada from the worst of US tariffs. If the U.S. threatens to pull out of this deal, it would increase business uncertainty and could hurt the job market even more.I believe that all the necessary conditions are in place for another interest rate cut in December, and there is even a chance it could happen sooner in October for the BoC.For now, I see this as the final cut of the cycle, but can't completely rule out more easing at this point, especially given the ongoing risks related to trade.This is something which could cap Canadian Dollar gains against the US Dollar moving forward. All in all a lot to consider for USD/CAD traders and interesting times ahead.Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on USDCAD with 61% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means USD/CAD prices could rise in the near-term.Best of Luck.For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: USD/JPY Technical: Yen eyeing a medium-term bullish breakout against USD from a 5-month rangeThe Bank of Japan is broadly expected to keep its policy rate at 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, 2025. The future economic outlook remains cautious because of political uncertainty within Japan and challenges from international trade. Source: LSEG Source: LSEG The value of the US dollar against the Japanese yen will mainly be affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's meeting will also have an impact, but it will likely be less significant. However, if Governor Ueda says something unexpected, it could cause a major rise in the value of the yen, breaking its current trading range of 147 to 149.The Anticipated Bank of Japan Policy Decision: Maintaining the Status Quo The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to keep its interest rate at 0.5% this week, a rate it has held since January. This cautious, "wait-and-see" approach is due to a few key reasons.First, there is political uncertainty in Japan, and the central bank wants to avoid making any sudden policy changes that could cause more economic instability. Second, the BOJ is still evaluating the full impact of a new U.S.-Japan trade deal and U.S. tariffs, which are hurting Japanese exports.Interestingly, the BOJ is prioritizing economic stability over controlling inflation, even though inflation is running high and outpacing wage growth. This difference between the central bank's policy and the domestic inflation reality could potentially lead to market problems in the future.Forward-Looking Monetary Policy: The Outlook Beyond September The market expects the Bank of Japan to keep its interest rate unchanged in September but believes they will start raising rates soon. Many traders think there's a strong chance of a rate hike before the end of 2025 and more hikes by the middle of next year. Source LSEG Looking at the implied rates based on LSEG data, we can see markets are pricing in around 50 bps of cuts through December 2026. Now this may not seem like a lot, but it is the BoJ we are talking about.Since no new forecasts will be released at the meeting, the market's reaction will depend entirely on what Governor Kazuo Ueda says at his press conference.The Bank of Japan is known for its vague communication. If Governor Ueda continues to be vague, the market will likely have a small reaction. However, if he sounds surprisingly direct about future rate hikes, it would confirm the market's aggressive expectations. Because of this, his words could cause a large and sudden shift in the market.The Dual-Central Bank Catalyst: Impact on USD/JPY The value of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen is primarily driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies. When investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates, the dollar typically falls against the yen. This is especially relevant this week, as a Fed rate cut has been delivered as expected.The market generally expects the US to cut rates while Japan eventually raises them, a situation that would likely cause the dollar to weaken against the yen. While the Bank of Japan's decision is also important, its effect will be largely shaped by the Fed's actions. The Fed's influence on the currency pair is much stronger.Given that market expectations are for 50 bps of rate cuts from the Fed before the year-end on top of the 25 bps delivered this week, the Yen could be poised for gains moving forward over the medium term. Source: Google Gemini Technical Analysis USD/JPY USD/JPY from a technical standpoint has been giving signs of a bullish rally, but the potential effects of rate differentials could come into play.On a weekly timeframe, the long-term descending trendline had been broken a while ago and since then USD/JPY has been trapped in a range between 145.00 and 150.00 handle with a brief foray higher being met by swift selling pressure.There is also an ascending trendline from the April lows just below the 140.00 handle.The daily candle has closed as a hammer candlestick bouncing of the trendline and the 100-day MA at 146.21.Immediate resistance is provided by the 50-day MA which rests at 147.67 before the 200-day MA at 148.62 comes into focus.A break of the ascending trendline could lead to a push toward the 145.00 handle before the swing low at 143.33 comes into focus.USD/JPY Daily Chart, September 17, 2025 Source: TradingView Trade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 17Both the Bank of Canada (2.75% → 2.50%) and the Federal Reserve (4.50% → 4.25%) cut their rates today which helped to sustain some decent strength in the Canadian Dollar despite pretty negative talks on the Canadian Economy at the decision.The FED actually provided a fairly hawkish cut when looking at the speech from Powell. The Federal Reserve Chair emphasized the decision being centered around the labor market despite economic activity being more than decent.Jerome Powell did mention the resilience of the American consumer and the stable inflation expectation throughout his press conference – This took out the initial dovishness that got priced right after the 14:00 announcement.BoC Governor Macklem expressed some concerns about the Canadian Economy, while still precising that the current pace is more one of a slowdown that an actual recession.You can access his comments right here.Elsewhere, today showed the revelation that US Treasury's Scott Bessent also was found to have listed two homes as principal residence, the same as Lisa Cook as the case progresses – She is still part of the FED and will take back her responsibilities if the case goes to court.China also decided to cut Nvidia chip purchases in the latest round of the ongoing Trade War between the US and China.This might come as a piece of negotiation ahead of the Xi-Trump call that should be taking place on Friday. Read More:Bank of Canada cuts rates to 2.50%, FOMC coming up!— North American mid-week Market updateThe Federal Reserve 25 bps cut sends markets on fire – SEP, Powell's speech and Market reactionsCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView As per usual for such a key FOMC day, the session was a rollercoaster.Initial rallies in stocks, metals and bonds got met with sharp reversals as Powell's conference progressed.The most resilient index amid the pullbacks was the Dow Jones which appreciated from the rate cut, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gave back some of their optimism due to higher rate projections in 2026 when looking at the dot plot.Overall, the FED will still be data dependent and traders will have to deal with that fact. There is still about 50 bps of cuts priced in towards the end of 2025.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 17 – Source: OANDA Labs The speech from Powell brought back some of the USD strength in his usual balancing tone.Look at the swing in the USD between 14:00 and around 15:00 - The greenback finishes the session at its highs. It particularly hurt the currencies which appreciated in the past week, with a focus on European FX.The currency market will be interesting in the upcoming days particularly after the most recent swings in majors - Overall, data dependency will be back to moving markets moving forward, so stay in touch with the Economic calendar moving forward.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. After today’s wild Bank of Canada and FOMC rate cuts, the week is still far from over:Today's evening session welcomes huge data for Antipodean traders, including New Zealand's GDP (18:45) and Australian Employment (21:30) – Both currencies and particularly the AUD have been strong in the past few weeks, putting some more emphasis on tonight's releases.Thursday promises to be huge, kicking off with a flurry of ECB speeches overnight (another one by Lagarde, de Guindos, Schnabel, Nagel), adding to potential euro volatility – ECB speakers have been generous with speeches as of late which took out further rate cuts priced in 2026.At 07:00 ET, all eyes turn to the Bank of England’s rate decision, minutes, and vote breakdown — a potential high-impact event for GBP.After the most recent cut, the BoE is expected to maintain its rates at 4% amid high inflation but we can never know with the Bank of England.The U.S. follows at 08:30 ET with Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed survey, key checks on labour and manufacturing.Later, New Zealand releases trade data at 18:45 ET, but the biggest piece of the session will be for the JPY traders (and actually all traders are looking at this):The National CPI for Japan at 19:00 ET. but most importantly, the Bank of Japan interest rate decision expected for tonight anytime between 19:30 and 20:30 (time not specified). Safe Trades in this huge Central Bank week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.This week finally lands some fundamental change for the currency space, and this will influence Markets for the time to come.After North American Central Banks holding due to tariffs uncertainty, the latest round of data provided what they needed for their decision-making:The Bank of Canada cuts its main rate to 2.50% after its last cut in March 2025. The change in policy reflects mounting evidence of economic weakness — Canadian GDP keeps contracting with the Q2 numbers and August saw a steep 60K job loss, underlining a still deteriorating labor market. Tariffs on key exports pressured growth leaving no choice for Macklem and the BoC to cut – this comes particularly as Macklem puts less emphasis on inflationary pressures.You can access his statement right here.Governor Tiff Macklem is actually speaking as I write this piece, and the speech is dovish/pessimistic on the Canadian Economy.Also check out our most recent piece on the data right here.The Federal Reserve is now expected to follow suit, with labor market cracks showing in the two most recent NFP releases – Despite US Inflation still elevated, Powell's August shift at the Jackson Hole speech indicated a switch in the FED's narrative (and added pressure from the Trump Administration). Furthermore, with the negative PPI print and a not-too-hot CPI, the green light is here for the FED to start cutting.With the sudden new balance of doves in the FED with Miran entering the meeting just before its start and Lisa Cook not being part of the meeting, an expected more dovish dot plot led to a huge selloff in the US Dollar, particularly as pre-meeting hedging accelerated. Read More:Access technical levels for major FX pairs ahead of the FOMC rate decisionFed (FOMC) Meeting Preview: 25 bps Cut Appears Baked In, Forward Guidance Is Key. Implications for the DXY, Dow Jones and S&P 500Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watch Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView North-American indices are still ravaging their way higher without leaving much space for bears. The ongoing rallies are particularly impressive when looking at other indices, particularly in Europe (Yellow) which struggled quite a lot in the past 1.5 week.The TSX left its throne for the Nasdaq which has been performing sensationally – We will see what was the effect of the most recent Bank of Canada rate cut for the TSX.There is an ongoing profit-taking move in Equities right ahead of the FOMC that is to be monitored!Dollar Index 8H Chart Dollar Index 8H Chart, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView As detailed in the chart published in our pre-FOMC FX technical level analysis, the Dollar Index freshly broke its August consolidation range and has stopped its free-fall just before its 2025 yearly lows (96.53 vs 96.23 July 1st lows).I also invite you to check out our most-recent DXY analysis to get further information on why the greenback moved so much these past few sessions.Levels to watch for the Dollar Index:Support Levels:2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Early 2022 Conslidation just below 96.0095.00 Key SupportResistance Levels:Range support now Pivot 97.50 (immediate resistance)98.00 higher timeframe PivotCurrent range Extreme resistance 98.50100.00 Main resistance zoneUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors, September 17, 2025 - Source: TradingView. As seen through the DXY chart, the US Dollar throughout the past two weeks but the beating accelerated throughout the beginning of this week particularly.The Australian Dollar, Kiwi and Swissie are the two winners of the USD downfall but it seems that there is an ongoing (small) mean-reversion move. 1.5% to 2% move ranges are still huge, particularly in a precedently slow FX Market.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, September 17, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The CAD also took a beating since the release of the Canadian Employment figures as seen in the past week Mid-Week report.Saved by an even lower US Dollar, the Loonie has started to form some type of intermediate bottom despite the dovishness from Macklem – The Canadian Dollar is still at its cycle lows against all European currencies and depreciating also against the JPY, however the latter is a bit more balanced as of late.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USDCAD 4H Chart, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Even with the dovish Bank of Canada, the CAD is holding decently strong in today's session – It seems that after the terrible employment data, the beating that the Loonie took priced this exact dovishness as can be seen in the current hesitant upward candle (gravestone doji).Maybe a Sell the fact is taking place for the USDCAD? We will see after the FOMC what happens – I would look at EURUSD or the DXY also to see if USD weakness continues.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance LevelsBoC highs 1.37721.38 Handle +/- 150 pips1.3850 to 1.3860 Main resistance1.3925 Aug 22 highsSupport LevelsKey longer-term pivot turned support 1.3750 (currently testing)1.3660 intermediate support1.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar This ongoing session is huge and still far from over!The BoC rate decision (09:45 ET) and press conference just concluded with the as expected rate cut to 2.50%, pretty bearish on the Canadian economy but the CAD is holding well (for now).In about 2.5 hours, the spotlight shifts to the Fed at 14:00 ET, with the rate decision, economic projections, and dot plot, capped by Powell’s press conference at 14:30 ET. So much will be on the line for this FED Meeting which will keep Markets occupied for the entire session and upcoming weeks.The rest of the week has less on its plate:On Thursday, focus moves back to the U.S. labor market with the usual weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey at 08:30 ET. Energy traders will also watch the EIA natural gas storage change at 10:30 ET.Friday closes with Canada’s Retail Sales (MoM, Jul), offering another read on consumer resilience or lack thereof. The Bank of Canada now expects a decent rebound towards the end of the year or should keep cutting rates. Watch the data closely (Retail sales actually was one of the better Canadian data and will have to hold).Safe Trades in preparation of the FOMC!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian dollar has posted small gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3762, up 0.17% on the day.BoC reduces rates to 2.5% There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada, which lowered its policy rate by a quarter-point to 2.5%, its lowest level since July 2022. This was the first time the Bank of Canada lowered rates since March, as it was forced to respond to signs of weakness in the economy and lower inflation.The rate statement said that a rate cut was justified, given that the economy had weakened and there was less upside risk to inflation. The US tariffs were expected to have a further dampening effect on economic activity. The statement made three references to the uncertainty of the economic outlook, which has required the BoC to act cautiously. At a follow-up press conference, Governor Macklem defended the rate cut due to a weaker labor market and less upside pressure on underlying inflation.What was missing from the rate statement and press conference was any forward guidance about future rate cuts, as the central bank doesn't want to be pushed into any corners with regard to future decisions. If inflation risks continue to fade, the BoC could deliver one or even two rate cuts before the end of the year.Federal Reserve poised to lower ratesThe Federal Reserve is virtually certain to lower rates at today's meeting, barring a monumental surprise. The expected rate cut would be the Fed's first since December 2024. With the rate decision virtually a given, investors will be looking for some clues as to whether the Fed is looking at further rates cuts before the end of the year.USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3752. Above, there is resistance at 1.3770There is support at 1.3721 and 1.3703 USDCAD 1-Day Chart, September 17, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It isn't typical to see as much FX volatility ahead of such a key FOMC.Currency Markets had been particularly slow throughout August after some post-NFP correction in the US Dollar – Despite having reasons to sell the USD further, particularly after Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole, end-summer slow trading largely contained volatility for fiat majors.To catch up with the volatility seen in Equities (which kept flying higher throughout that entire period), the US Dollar took a two-day downward train to start this week.The greenback saw close to 1% moves in Monday and yesterday's consecutive sessions against European currencies particularly – The widest range throughout the whole FX Market between the 12th of August to last Friday had been ~0.50%.As explained in our previous piece, except for a huge switch of fundamentals and/or a leak to an upcoming decision, it is rare that players accelerate such volatility ahead of the FOMC.The only reasoning would be strong and sudden hedging that corroborates with Miran entering the FOMC meeting right before its start.Anyways, let's have a look at technical levels for all FX major pairs as the market gets ready for the FOMC decision (and the Bank of Canada rate decision, releasing very soon – we will update the levels on a new piece). DXY 4H Chart, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Watch how the Dollar broke lower this Monday after resisting in a range throughout the entire past month – You can check out our most recent DXY analysis right here. Read More:Fed (FOMC) Meeting Preview: 25 bps Cut Appears Baked In, Forward Guidance Is Key. Implications for the DXY, Dow Jones and S&P 500Dow Jones (DJIA) Technical: Resting at key support ahead of FOMC, watch the US Treasury yield curve to trigger a bullish moveMarkets Today: UK Inflation Sticky, Gold Prices Retreat, FTSE 100 Hovers at 200-Day MA Ahead of FOMC DecisionAll FX Majors Charts with the key levels in play for the September FOMCNZDUSD 8H Chart and levels NZDUSD 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView Trading Levels for NZDUSD:Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 0.60Next Resistance 0.6060July 1st Highs 0.6120Support Levels0.5950 Main Pivot (acting as immediate support)0.59 (+/- 150 pips) Support0.58 Key SupportUSDJPY 8H Chart and levels (testing support) USDJPY 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView You can access an in-depth USDJPY analysis right here, released earlier today!Levels to watch for USDJPY:Resistance LevelsMid-range pivot 147.50 to 148.00May Range Extremes 148.70 to 149.50150.00 psychological resistance150.90 July highsSupport Levels146.50 range support (testing)145.00 psychological support142.35 low of the May range, main supportAUDUSD – A sharp rebound from the prior week selloff AUDUSD 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView You can access one of our most recent analysis for AUDUSD right here (chart is from Monday) – Watch the RSI which is starting to shape downwards.AUDUSD Trading Levels:Resistance LevelsUS CPI highs 0.6690 (2025 highs)Daily resistance 0.6670 to 0.67400.69 zone main resistance (+/- 150 pips)Support LevelsJuly Highs 0.66250 (+/- 100 pips) acting as key pivot and support0.6510 to 0.6530 support (confluence with 50-day MA)0.6420 August 22, 2025 lows (pre-Jackson Hole conference)Daily Support 0.63 to 0.64EURUSD 8H Chart and levels EURUSD 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView You can check out our Monday EURUSD Analysis which preceded a huge breakout to new highs – The fundamentals are still valid despite the new levels.Levels to watch for EURUSD:Resistance Levels:2025 highs 1.1880Main resistance turned pivot 1.18 to 1.1830 (yearly highs)1.20 psychological level and 2021 highsSupport Levels:1.1750 Intermediate Pivot (+/- 150 pips)1.1650 Key support1.16 Main support1.1470 Pivotal Support (bearish below this)The Swissie regains some strength – USDCHF USDCHF 4H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView Here is our latest in-depth analysis of the USDCHF (from yesterday) that was published as things were moving aggressively. Despite new lows being reached, the analysis is still valid!Levels to watch for USDCHF:Resistance Levels0.7950 Key pivotLong-term pivot 0.80 Zone (0.80 to 0.8010)Main resistance 0.8150 to 0.82 (last highs 0.8165)May 2025 highs 0.8475 Resistance ZoneSupport Levels0.78575 2025 lows Support0.77 to 0.7735 August 2011 lows0.76 Psychological levelThe Pound is back on track – GBPUSD GBPUSD 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView Levels to watch for GBPUSD:Resistance Levels2025 precise high 1.37882025 Highs resistance 1.3760 to 1.38Resistance 1.37 Zone (immediate resistance)Support LevelsResistance turned pivot at the 1.36 zoneSupport Zone 1.351.34 Support ZoneUSDCAD (Subject to change with ongoing Bank of Canada decision, Cut by 25 bps) USDCAD 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView An update to the chart will be presented in an upcoming piece: Mid-Week NA Markets update with a detailed USDCAD analysis inside. Here is the BoC statement.Levels to watch for USDCAD:Resistance Levels1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips1.3850 to 1.3860 Main resistance1.3925 Aug 22 highsSupport LevelsKey longer-term pivot turned support 1.3750 (currently testing)1.3660 intermediate support1.3550 Main 2025 SupportSafe Trades as the FOMC approaches!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Riding on the coattails of dollar weakness and safe-haven demand for much of 2025, USD/CHF currently trades at monthly lows of 0.78698, down -1.10% in yesterday’s session aloneDespite renewed deflationary pressures, as seen in Monday's PPI report, safe-haven flows concerning U.S. policy, especially regarding trade, continue to benefit CHF pricingWhile the SNB has been expected to return to its usual playbook of currency interventions to weaken the franc, recent market realisations suggest that new leadership is less interested in ‘interventionist’ policy Currently on pace for its best yearly performance in over two decades, 2025 has been an interesting year for dollar-franc traders.While recent domestic GDP numbers and continuing deflationary pressures within the Swiss economy would typically bode poorly for the Swiss franc, the significant appreciation in value seen across much of this year can be summed up in three words: safe-haven flows.This goes double considering the recent change of tack from the Bank of Japan, with the unwinding of the now infamous carry trade diverting much of the demand for safe-haven currencies towards the franc over the yen.Despite an unremarkable economic performance, at least one outcome is a rapid appreciation in franc value, currently at #1 in year-to-date performance, with the euro coming in a close second place.Read more on the Swiss franc’s performance in 2025: Swiss franc leads majors as US session begins and reclaims 2025 crownUSD/CHF: Shifting SNB doctrine to remove USD/CHF downside limit With the Swiss franc trading at multi-year highs since June, many expected the Swiss National Bank to intervene, in a return to its typical playbook.Having relied heavily on currency intervention to control CHF pricing in years past, it would seem that new leadership, under Chair Martin Schlegel, is less interested in ‘interventionist policy’ than his predecessors.While the market has slowly but surely come to this realisation, having seen many opportunities this year where intervention would have likely happened in years past, it seems the SNB is taking a more hands-off approach.This has been further vindicated by the SNB's clear difference in buying habits, which have purchased fewer francs in the last twelve months than in previous years by an order of magnitude.While traders have been cautious about taking further CHF shorts, fearing a potential for intervention, it would seem that, once all pieced together, the SNB is more comfortable with a stronger franc than once thought.On this basis, considering the SNB is more likely to leave the CHF at the mercy of market forces in the short term, we can consider USD/CHF downside renewed, as seen in yesterday’s session.That said, traders would do well to remember that an apparent change to ‘non-interventionalist’ policy only remains true until it doesn't; so best to approach with at least some caution.USD/CHF: Technical Analysis 17/09/2025 USD/CHF, OANDA, TradingView,17/09/2025 Painting fresh 15-year lows in yesterday’s session, bearish momentum has been renewed owing to SNB developments. Breaking previous lows at 0.78713, the level has failed to offer any support to a falling USD/CHF priceYesterday’s price action also broke the previously held downwards channel, with 0.78500 being an obvious next key level target should downside continueIn line with Fibonacci theory, and assuming price will stage a short-term retracement, bears will likely consider 0.79018 as an entry point. Otherwise, and if price continues to break down, 0.78069 will be the next target Read more from MarketPulse: Fed (FOMC) Meeting Preview: 25 bps Cut Appears Baked In, Forward Guidance Is Key. Implications for the DXY, Dow Jones and S&P 500 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY Technical: Mild JPY strength detected ahead of US CPI”, published on 11 September 2025.In the last four weeks, the US dollar has weakened significantly against several major currencies, such as the euro, which rallied to a 4-year peak against the greenback on Tuesday, 16 September, but the bearish momentum of the US dollar has lagged against the Japanese yen (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: 1-month rolling performance of the US dollar against other major currencies as of 17 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has declined as expected within its range configuration and hit the minor range support of 146.40 (printed an intraday low of 146.20 on Wednesday, 17 September 2025, Asia session).Based on a one-month rolling performance basis as of 17 September 2025, the USD/JPY has dropped by -0.6%, less than the decline seen in the US Dollar Index at -1.1% over the same period at the time of writing.Interestingly, the momentum factor (technical analysis) is suggesting that the fortune of JPY is about to see a regime change, as the FOMC monetary policy decision outcome, the release of the latest Fed economic projections, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference loom today.Let’s break down the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch on the USD/JPY Fig. 2: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 17 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 17 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain a bearish bias in any bounces below the adjusted short-term pivotal resistance at 147.50 for the USD/JPY. A break below 145.95 (key range support) triggers the start of a potential medium-term bearish impulsive down move sequence for the next intermediate support to come in at 145.20 (also a Fibonacci extension) in the first step (see Fig. 3).Key elements The price actions of the USD/JPY have been oscillating within a medium-term “Ascending Wedge” range configuration since 22 April 2025 low. Right now, it is hovering just above the lower boundary of the “Ascending Wedge,” acting as a key medium-term support of 145.95 (see Fig. 2).The daily RSI momentum indicator has continued to inch downwards since the bearish breakdown of its former parallel ascending support on 22 August 2025, which suggests that medium-term bearish momentum remains intact, supporting a potential imminent bearish breakdown of the 145.95 support on the USD/JPY (see Fig. 2).Recent price actions of the USD/JPY have traded below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 20-day moving average acting as a key short-term resistance at 147.50.The hourly RSI momentum indicator did not flash out a bearish divergence signal before it exited from its oversold region yesterday, 16 September 2025, which suggests the USD/JPY may shape a minor corrective bounce in the next few hours rather than a bullish reversal.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 147.50 invalidates the bearish scenario for the USD/JPY and sees a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 147.95. Above it triggers a further bounce towards the minor range resistance at 148.75/148.95 (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.