Gold hits new record highs above $3,780 per ounce, up 43% YTD.Fed policy is not the only driver; ETF inflows are the key catalyst.SPDR Gold Shares absorbed 19 tons in a single day, boosting demand.Silver rallies above $44, eyeing its 2011 peak near $50.Short Pause, Strong Rebound The pause in gold’s rally after last week’s Fed meeting proved exceptionally brief. Prices surged in recent days, breaking above $3,780 per ounce, with today’s trading consolidating between $3,760 and $3,780. Since the start of the year, gold has gained an impressive 43%. While official commentary signals expectations for further Fed rate cuts, Fed Funds Futures remain stable, still pricing in less than 50 basis points of easing by year-end, in line with FOMC projections.ETF Inflows as a Key Driver This suggests that gold’s rally is not driven solely by monetary policy. The crucial factor lies in massive inflows into gold-backed ETFs. On Friday, Bloomberg reported inflows of nearly 27 tons — the strongest daily increase since January 2022 — with 19 tons going into the largest U.S. gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares. Earlier this week, another 8.7 tons were added, bringing September’s total inflows to 88 tons. Strong institutional and retail demand is fueling the rally alongside concerns about Fed independence and rising geopolitical risks.Overbought Market, Risk of Correction With gold reaching new all-time highs, the market has entered overbought territory. This increases the likelihood of some speculative investors taking profits, potentially triggering a short-term correction. The pace of the current rally appears unsustainable in the long run. Gold CFD chart, daily interval, source: Trading view Silver Follows the Trend Silver has also surged, rising above $44 per ounce to its highest level in 14 years. The gold-to-silver ratio temporarily fell below 85, its lowest in 2025. As long as gold remains in a strong uptrend, silver has room for further gains, with the historical resistance near $50 from April 2011 being a critical reference point. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Following a period of setting new records, U.S. stock markets, particularly the major technology companies, saw a decline.This was largely due to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell not giving any clear indication that he would support another interest rate cut at the central bank's next meeting in October.While the stock market dropped from its all-time highs, government bonds held onto their gains.Powell stated that both the job market and inflation outlooks are uncertain, repeating his previous message that it will be a difficult challenge for policymakers as they consider future interest-rate cuts. Under pressure from the White House, the Federal Reserve cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point last week and plans two more cuts this year.However, after a period of setting new records, the S&P 500 stock index fell by 0.5%, with large technology companies like Amazon and Nvidia leading the declines. At the same time, the yield on ten-year government bonds dropped to 4.11%, and the dollar's value shifted throughout the day. The price of gold, however, remained at its record high. Oil prices rose, fueled by ongoing tensions between NATO and Russia.Inside the Fed, there are differing views among policymakers. Some are becoming more concerned about a weakening job market and believe the Fed should act to prevent further problems. Others are more focused on the risk that new trade tariffs and other policies could push inflation even higher, above the Fed's target.This disagreement was highlighted by two Fed officials: Governor Bowman stated that the Fed must be decisive in lowering rates to address the weakening job market. In contrast, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and his counterpart from Chicago, Goolsbee, expressed concerns that more inflation is on the horizon.Read More:Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History SaysSilver XAG/USD rockets to fresh 14-year highs on dovish Fed and robust fundamental outlookNikkei 225: Bullish reversal above 45,000, no negative impact from BoJ’s ETF unwindCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Oil prices led the way today increasing by more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday. This gain was a result of a deal to restart oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region stalling, which eased some of the fears among investors about too much oil being available on the global market.Gold prices saw a drop off similar to US equities after the comments from Fed Chair Powell. The Fed Chair continues to remain calm under growing political pressure and market expectations for further rate cuts.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 22 – Source: OANDA Labs The U.S. dollar's value remained mostly stable, as measured by the dollar index.The dollar index was little changed at 97.25.The dollar was slightly weaker against both the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.Meanwhile, the euro edged up slightly against the dollar, and the British pound remained flat.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Looking ahead and the Asian session is relatively quiet with the biggest data release coming from Australia with the monthly CPI release.The European session will bring some medium impact data in the form of Euro IFO data from Germany before markets shift attentions to more Federal Reserve policymakers speaking as well as new home sales data.Any other developments and comments around the UN as well as discussions between Iran and European powers around a nuclear deal could also have an impact on overall market sentiment.Safe Trades and an enjoyble week ahead!Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - China, Hong Kong Shares Slide Most Read: Nikkei 225: Bullish reversal above 45,000, no negative impact from BoJ’s ETF unwindFollowing a technology-fueled surge on Wall Street, Asian stocks were trading near a record high, although shares in Hong Kong and mainland China declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pulled back from its earlier highs to trade mostly flat. Stocks in Hong Kong fell 1% as the city was dealing with its most severe typhoon since 2018.However, shares of Asian companies that are involved in making computer chips rose, which was a reaction to the news that Nvidia has invested in OpenAI.There was no cash trading of U.S. government bonds (Treasuries) during the Asian trading hours because markets in Tokyo were closed for a public holiday.China's stock markets saw declines, with both the CSI300 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropping by 1%.This negative mood among investors was made worse after a highly anticipated press conference by top financial regulators on Monday failed to provide any new announcements of policy support for the economy.Euro Area Private Sector Growth Accelerates, UK Composite PMI Falls Looking at the Euro Area, I was of the opinion that the very strong business activity in August, mainly from manufacturing, was likely a one-time event. This view was supported by a separate survey from the European Commission, which showed that while current production was up, companies weren't very optimistic about the future.New data released today seems to confirm this. The manufacturing sector has now declined to its lowest point in three months. However, activity in the service sector has improved significantly. This balance has kept the overall business activity index at a level that suggests the economy is still growing modestly. Overall, this means the eurozone economy had a respectable quarter, despite a lot of instability in the global economy.When looking at individual countries, France is a negative standout. Its business activity index fell to its lowest level since April, with both manufacturing and services showing a decline. This is in contrast to Germany, where the services sector is picking up. Given the current political uncertainty in France, its economy appears to be reflecting that same sense of instability.According to a preliminary estimate, the UK's business activity slowed down in September. The S&P Global Composite PMI index dropped to 51, a notable decrease from August's one-year high of 53.5 and below the expected 53. This marks the slowest rate of growth since May. Sources: ONS, S&P Global PMI The slowdown was seen in both the services sector, which grew at a slower pace, and the manufacturing sector, which experienced a more significant decline. New business increased only slightly, as companies reported that clients were hesitant to spend, particularly in export markets in the US and EU. To keep up production, businesses had to rely on existing backlogs of work.At the same time, costs for companies increased sharply due to rising wage pressures and higher National Insurance contributions. This led firms to raise their prices. As a result of these pressures, the level of employment in the private sector fell for the eleventh month in a row.Looking ahead, companies remain optimistic about future growth, but this optimism is not as strong as it was last month.European Open - FTSE 100 Retreats Global stocks climbed on Tuesday, driven by growing excitement around artificial intelligence (AI), which is attracting a lot of money into technology companies. Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates also pushed the price of gold to a new record high.European stocks, which have typically been slower to follow the tech stock trend, saw gains of 0.4% in the EURO STOXX 600 index. This was primarily boosted by utility companies, with both German and French stock indexes climbing 0.5% and 0.7% respectively.However, the Dutch chip equipment manufacturer ASML saw its shares drop by 1.2%, which kept the overall gains in check.On the FX front, The S dollar held steady on Tuesday as investors carefully considered recent comments from members of the Federal Reserve.These remarks were seen as having a "hawkish" tilt, which means they suggest a preference for tighter monetary policy, like higher interest rates, to control inflation. At the same time, the market was waiting for a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for more clarity on the economic outlook.The dollar's value shifted throughout the day but ended up mostly unchanged. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against other major currencies, was last at 97.36, after its three-day winning streak was broken on Monday.The euro and the British pound were slightly lower and flat against the dollar, respectively. The dollar was also flat against the Japanese yen.However, it gained slightly against the Swedish krona after Sweden's central bank cut its key interest rate to 1.75% and indicated that rates would likely stay at that level for a while.The offshore Chinese yuan remained unchanged against the dollar. This was because some major state-owned banks were reportedly buying US dollars. This move is typically seen as an effort to slow down the yuan's appreciation, or strengthening, against the dollar.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday, even though investors were also considering the potential for more oil supply coming to the market. This new supply is expected because Iraq and the Kurdish regional governments have reached a preliminary deal to reopen a key oil pipeline.Brent crude futures gained 14 cents to $66.71 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 21 cents to $62.49 a barrel. Both types of oil recovered from small losses earlier in the day.The recent gains come after both Brent and WTI had fallen for the previous four sessions, dropping about 3% in value.Gold prices held steady on Tuesday after reaching a new record high. This was supported by ongoing expectations for more interest rate cuts in the U.S. and a weaker dollar, which typically makes gold more appealing. Investors are now waiting for a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for more clues about the central bank's future policy plans.Spot gold, which is the current price for immediate delivery, was up by 1% at $3,783.25 per ounce, after it had already hit a record high of $3,791.02 earlier in the session.Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session was busy with a host of PMI data releases.Attention will now shift to US PMI data while central bank policymakers from the ECB, FED and Bank of Canada will also be speaking during the US session. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has seen a pullback this morning after advancing yesterday.Overall structure remains bullish but a pullback toward the 100-day MA is now looking likely.A bounce off the support here could lead to fresh highs beyond the 9280 highs printed earlier today.Immediate support below the 100-day MA is provided by the 200-day MA at 9216.Resistance beyond the 9280 handle may be found at 9320 and 9357.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 23. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 22Markets started the week on the back foot today, but shook off early concerns as US tech shares continued their impressive rise.This was fueled by a promise from Nvidia to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, boosting excitement around artificial intelligence.The S&P 500 saw gains primarily in the technology sector, marking a new record high for the 28th time this year. Nvidia's stock rose by about 4%, as its investment is meant to help OpenAI build data centers with its advanced AI chips.Other tech stocks also did well: Apple's shares went up 4.3% after an analyst firm, Wedbush, raised its price target for the stock due to strong demand for the new iPhone 17. Tesla's stock also climbed 1.9%.The technology sector as a whole led the gains for the S&P 500, ending the day 1.7% higher.Meanwhile, some officials at the Federal Reserve expressed doubts about the need for further interest rate cuts, even though the central bank cut rates for the first time last week. Both St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that while last week's rate cut was a good way to manage unemployment risk, their main goal is still to lower inflation.However, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who last week argued for a bigger rate cut, said on Monday that monetary policy is already "well into restrictive territory."In other news, the bond market was relatively quiet, with U.S. yields slightly higher. The dollar's three-day rally has ended, the crypto market was hit, and gold reached a new record high. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD): Short-term bullish acceleration intact towards new all-time highs above US$3,660 key supportBinance Coin (BNB) breaks $1,000 despite a crypto pullback – Crypto outlookGBPJPY rejects 200.00 mark as sellers defend the rangeCross-Assets Daily Performance (update) Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView US stocks continued that impressive rally which has captivated attention in 2025, shrugging off an early session pause.However, the story of the day is the precious metals markets with Gold powering forward to fresh all time highs near $3750/oz.Cryptocurrencies on the other hand struggled with Bitcoin seeing massive liquidations as prices dipped below the $115k handle.Oil on the other hand continues to toil in the range which has held prices for the last four months.A picture of today's performance for major currencies (update chart) Currency Performance, September 22 – Source: OANDA Labs The U.S. dollar is on track to end its three-day winning streak against the euro and Swiss franc. This shift comes as investors are processing a large number of recent comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the central bank's latest monetary policy decisions.As a result, the euro gained 0.44% against the dollar, reaching $1.1796, poised to snap its own three-day losing streak. The overall dollar index, which measures the dollar against a group of major currencies, fell by 0.39% to 97.34.Other currencies also strengthened against the dollar: the Swedish krona rose by 0.75% ahead of its central bank's policy meeting on Tuesday, and the Japanese yen gained 0.17%, on track for its second straight day of gains against the dollar. The British pound also saw an increase of 0.37%, reaching $1.3516. Even the Australian dollar, which had started the day with losses, reversed its course to climb 0.12% to $0.6599.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. A busy day ahead for markets, particularly in the European session where we get a host of PMI releases from the Euro Area and the UK.Attention will then shift to US PMI data as we continue to get comments from Fed officials which after today may only serve to add more confusion and mixed messaging. Safe Trades and an enjoyble weekend!Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The week starts on a grim note for cryptocurrencies when looking at the daily performance of most major altcoins. Crypto market overview, September 22, 2025 – Source: Finviz A lack of progress throughout the past few weeks still hasn't marked anything resembling a bear market, particularly with Solana dragging market sentiment upward the past week, attaining $250 highs.The price action and the general market cap has corrected to open the week but BNB, Binance's altcoin and one of the major cryptocurrency coin outstanding, has broken a new record over the weekend.Breaching the $1,000 cap on Saturday, BNB reached $1,087 highs on the same day before retracing slightly.Let's have a look at an intraday chart for this huge altcoin, and then taking a look at ETH and BTC to spot levels of interest for these major coins. Read More:Markets Today: Gold Surges Above $3700/oz, China Keep Rates on Hold and FTSE Holds at SupportMarkets Weekly Outlook - PMI and PCE in the Spotlight as US Dollar Remains Sensitive to US Labor DataGold (XAU/USD): Short-term bullish acceleration intact towards new all-time highs above US$3,660 key supportA look at the Crypto Total Market Cap Total Crypto Market Cap, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cryptos are still holding tightly above preceding all-time highs (from November 2021) which peaked at $3.73T at that time.Since, the new record reached $4.14T and consolidated at this time, with the current rally supported by more stable investor inflows and the creation of ETFs.Nonetheless, keep an eye on the Market Cap to check if this ongoing dynamic sees a switch.Binance Coin (BNB) 8H Chart BNB 8H Chart, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView BNB was progressing at a similar pace as other altcoins throughout this bull cycle but has seen considerable acceleration since August 2nd lows – Which also occurred on a Saturday. It might be important to denote this fact for future action!The top #5 altcoin is up 45% in a less than two months when looking at the low to high swings.Despite currently correcting, the crypto will now look to confirm its breakout above $1,000 as the pivot zone approaches and may serve as consolidation level.Levels of interest for BNB trading:Support Levels:$1,000 Pivot (+/- $15)Low of channel + breakout Support zone $880 to $900December 2024 Highs $794.3 support zone ($790 to $800)May 2021 highs to August 2nd lows zone ($704 to $730)Resistance Levels:Current ATH $1,087 and ATH resistance zoneATH resistance zone: $1,050 to $1,090$1,255 Fib-Induced potential resistanceEthereum 8H Chart ETH 8H Chart, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since reaching a new all-time high ($4,950) following Jerome Powell's August speech, Ethereum hasn't been able to create a significant rally.As mentioned in the introduction to this piece, the second-largest coin is still consolidating above $4,000 which is a positive sign for the long-run.However, last week's price action has formed a tight bear channel sequence,Despite the rebound at the December 2024 highs, a potential break-retest sign, bulls still have to show more to regain immediate momentum.Levels to place on your ETH Charts:Support Levels:$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation Zone (getting tested)$4,000 to $4,095 Main Long-run Pivot (most recent rebound)$3,500 Main Support ZoneResistance Levels:September 12th rebound high $4,690$4,950 Current new All-time highs$4,700 to $4,950 All-time high resistance zonePotential main resistance $5,230 Fibonacci extensionBitcoin 8H Chart BTC 8H Chart, September 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin's momentum has fallen sharply since last week's FOMC meeting.Still, the leading crypto is evolving within an upward channel which will need bulls to hold relaunch momentum higher to avoid a further bearish sequence settling.As a matter of fact, the lower trendline of the upward channel is about $2,000 lower (around $110,000).Currently hanging around the 50-period MA, it will be interesting to see who takes the immediate momentum – Selling is happening as we speak throughout the market, but Bitcoin is hanging tight.Levels to place on your BTC Charts:Support Levels:$110,000 to $112,000 previous ATH support zone$106,000 to $108,000 key support$100,000 main support at the psychological levelResistance Levels:Current all-time high $124,596Major resistance $122,000 to $124,500$115,000 to $117,000 key pivot$126,500 to $128,000 Fib-extension potential resistance (1.382% from April to May up-move)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar is coming off its best week since July, with gains of close to 1%. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6589, down 0.07% on the day.Bullock says inflation in good place but China a concern RBA Governor Bullock testified before a parliamentary committee on Monday. Bullock said that inflation was in a "very good position" as higher interest rates had curbed demand. Still, she warned that there inflation risks remained on "both sides".Bullock was less positive about the geopolitical environment, warning that the significant change in the global trading system which had created massive uncertainty. The Reserve Bank was particularly concerned about the impact of US tariffs on China, Australia's largest trading partner. Bullock warned that the financial markets had not priced in the risks of the tariffs, which could affect financial stability if the the domstic economy was significantly affected by the tariffs.The RBA is expected to hold the cash rate at 3.6% at next week's meeting, after lowering rates by a quarter-point in August. The markets have priced in a 10% likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, with an 86% likelihood of a cut in November.Investors eye FedspeakThere are no US economic releases today but investors will be keeping a close eye on Fedspeak, with five FOMC members scheduled to deliver public remarks. New Fed Governor MIran, who voted for a 50-bp cut at the September 17 meeting, is expected to give a detailed explanation of his view in today's speech.At last week's meeting, the Fed signaled that more rate cuts were coming and the markets have priced in an October cut at 90%, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed appears to have shifted to a more dovish stance after maintaining rates since December 2024 until lowering rates last week.AUD/USD Technical AUDUSD 4-Hour Chart, September 21, 2025 AUDUSD tested support at 0.6589 and 0.6580 earlier. Next, there is support at 0.6567There is resistance at 0.6602 and 0.6611 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Eyeing a new all-time high above US$3,675, supported by positive flows and positioning”, published on 15 September 2025.The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD have shaped the expected bullish move and printed a fresh all-time intraday high of US$3,707 on Wednesday, 17 September, during the onset of the release of the FOMC’s monetary policy outcome and latest summary of economic dot plot projections. Thereafter, the precious yellow metal staged a minor corrective decline of 2.2% to hit an intraday low of US$3,628 on Thursday, 18 September 2025, in line with a rebound in the US dollar ex-post FOMC.The minor corrective decline of the Gold (XAU/USD) managed to stage right above the US$3,600 key short-term pivotal support as highlighted in our prior report. It staged a bullish reversal and continued to rally.In today’s Asia session, 22 September 2025, Gold recorded an intraday gain of 0.9% to print another intraday fresh record high of US$3,720 (just shy of the predefined resistance of US$3,725 highlighted in our previous report).Let’s now examine its latest short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), key elements, and price levels for Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 22 September 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: 10-year US Treasury real yield with Gold (XAU/USD) major trend as of 22 September 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal support at US$3,660 for Gold (XAU/USD) for a potential bullish acceleration for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$3,750 and US$3,776 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 1).Key elements The 10-year US Treasury real yield (excluding 10-year breakeven inflation rate) medium-term downtrend remains intact despite a bounce seen from a key near-term support at 1.66% on last Wednesday, 17 September 2025, as it remained below its 20-day moving and 50-day moving averages that are acting as key intermediate resistances at 1.75% and 1.87% respectively (see Fig. 2).Based on intermarket analysis, a cap on any further rebound in the 10-year US Treasury real yield reduces the opportunity costs of holding Gold (XAU/USD) as it is a non-income-bearing asset, in turn, creating a further positive feedback loop back into the price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) (see Fig. 2).The recent 2.2% minor corrective pull-back in Gold (XAU/USD) has managed to stall right at the lower boundary of a minor ascending channel from the 22 August 2025 low, now acting as a key short-term support at around US$3,660 (see Fig. 1).The hourly RSI momentum indicator of Gold (XAU/USD) has reached its overbought zone (above the 70 level) but has not flashed out any bearish divergence condition. These observations suggest short-term bullish momentum remains intact (see Fig. 1).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the US$3,660 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD) invalidates the bullish acceleration scenario to expose the next intermediate support at US$3,620.Failure to hold above US$3,620 opens the scope for a deeper minor corrective decline sequence towards US$3,560 (also the 20-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Start Week on the Front Foot Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - PMI and PCE in the Spotlight as US Dollar Remains Sensitive to US Labor DataAsian stock markets rose, following a strong performance on Wall Street. Japanese stocks, in particular, saw a significant boost as worries eased about the Bank of Japan's recent plan to sell its large holdings of exchange-traded funds.As a result, the region's overall stock index, the MSCI, went up by 0.2%, and Japan's Nikkei-225 index jumped by as much as 1.6%. Meanwhile, in India, stocks for IT companies declined as traders began to evaluate the potential negative effects of a sharp increase in H-1B visa application fees. This new fee, which is a one-time charge of $100,000 on new petitions, has raised concerns within the industry.In other political news, the race to choose the next leader of Japan's governing party began.This contest is being closely watched by the financial markets because the winner is expected to become the country's next prime minister, following the decision by the current leader, PM Ishiba, to step down. Ishiba's resignation comes after his party suffered major losses in recent elections.China Keeps Lending Rate on Hold In line with what markets expected, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) decided to keep its main lending rates at their current, record-low levels for the fourth month in a row. This decision follows its move last week to also keep the seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged.The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which is the benchmark for most business and personal loans, remained at 3.0%. Similarly, the five-year LPR, used for setting mortgage rates, stayed at 3.5%. Both of these rates were last lowered in May by 0.10%.This decision by the central bank came at a time when trade tensions between China and the US appeared to be easing. However, it also came against a backdrop of slowing economic growth within China and new policy moves from the US Federal Reserve. Recent data showed that industrial production in August grew at its weakest pace since August 2024, and retail sales growth hit a nine-month low. While new loans issued in the local currency rebounded after an unexpected drop in July, the overall expansion of credit still did not meet expectations.European Open - Shares Steady At Start of the Week European stocks remained stable on Monday, with gains in technology companies being offset by losses in the automotive sector. This was a day of waiting for investors, who were looking ahead to comments from several Federal Reserve officials.The pan-European STOXX 600 index was largely unchanged, though Spanish stocks performed particularly poorly, dropping by 0.9%.In company news, German luxury carmaker Porsche saw its shares fall by 4.7% after it lowered its profit forecast for 2025. This decision was made because the company is slowing down its plans for rolling out electric vehicles due to weaker demand. Its parent company, Volkswagen, also cut its 2025 profit outlook and saw its stock slide by 4.5%.On the positive side, technology stocks rose by 0.9%, with chip manufacturers ASML and ASMI gaining 2.9% and 1.9%, respectively.In other company news, shares of the Dutch geo-data company Fugro plunged by 11.9% after the company withdrew its annual financial forecast, citing "significant changes" in market conditions in recent weeks.On the FX front, The Japanese yen's recent gains against the US dollar were largely erased, with the yen falling by 0.2%. This retreat comes after a "hawkish" shift in the Bank of Japan's tone last week, which suggested that an interest rate hike might be coming soon.Meanwhile, the British pound dropped to its lowest value in two weeks, reaching $1.3453. It was under pressure from a combination of domestic problems, including a recent sharp increase in UK government borrowing and a Bank of England decision that highlighted the difficulty for policymakers in balancing economic growth with controlling inflation.The euro also weakened slightly, falling by 0.15% to $1.1731.In other currency news, the Australian dollar saw a small increase of 0.07% to $0.6595, getting some support from positive economic comments made by a senior central banker. The New Zealand dollar also edged up by 0.03% to $0.5858.Finally, the Chinese yuan firmed slightly to 7.1136 per dollar. This was helped by a reduction in trade tensions between the US and China, as well as China's decision to keep its key lending rates unchanged.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased on Monday, driven by ongoing political tensions in Europe and the Middle East. However, these gains were partially limited by two main factors: the expectation of more oil becoming available on the market and concerns that trade tariffs would negatively affect global fuel demand.Specifically, the price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 45 cents (0.67%) to $67.13 a barrel. Meanwhile, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for October, which expires on Monday, went up by 47 cents (0.75%) to $63.15 a barrel. The more actively traded November WTI contract also saw an increase of 43 cents (0.69%), reaching $62.83 a barrel.Gold prices reached a new record high on Monday. This was driven by investors seeking a safe place for their money after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week and suggested that more rate cuts could be on the way.Investors are also paying close attention to upcoming events this week, including a series of speeches from Fed officials and the release of new US inflation data.Spot gold rose by 0.7% to $3,709.29 per ounce, hitting a record high of $3,711.55 earlier in the day.Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session is a quiet one.The main event for the day will be commentary from at least five Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams and newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran would be on the radar.We also have speeches from BoE and ECB policymakers on the agenda which could stoke volatility further. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has bounced at a crucial support level. A sign of things to come?A move higher here needs to gain acceptance the swing high at 9247 before 9280 and 9300 come into focus.The RSI period-14 also eyes a bullish momentum shift as the index eyes a break of the 50 neutral level.On the downside, support rests at 9213 and 9180.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 3. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 19Today’s story was one of cautious optimism for global trade, as both Washington and Beijing struck a more constructive tone. President Trump described the talks with Xi Jinping as “positive and constructive,” while adding that progress had been made on “several important issues.” That shift in rhetoric provided a relief bid across risk assets, even as broader market themes remained volatile.And despite all the classic diplomatic talk, Markets are still awaiting for actual concrete news but for now, we will content with the current words from Xi and Trump which don't sound too pessimistic overall. As long as they keep discussing, progress can be made but the path is still to deglobalization amid a growing economic cold war between the two superpowers.In that aspect, the latest Global acquisition of US Treasuries data, China moved to slash its UST holdings — now at the lowest since 2008 — is a reminder of lingering financial tensions beneath the surface. On the other hand, Japan and the Uk boost their acquisitions by quite a lot.Canada also reopened its trade dialogue with the US, another sign that tariff-heavy relations could see small steps toward easing. The US Dollar raging back higher is also one of the themes of today's session and will have to be tracked closely looking forward, as a potential double bottom could now be coming in play. Commodities also surprised to the upside, not such a shocker when seeing the better tone around global trade as seen in the headlines, but overall, a discrepancy of a USD rising higher and Gold/Silver also rising is giving an interesting picture.Overall, these flows keep coming at the cost of US treasuries which are the denominator (and getting sold off aggressively amid a not-so-dovish FED). An interesting term that could be in play is reflation – I invite you to look this term up which corresponds well to the current flows. Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - PMI and PCE in the Spotlight as US Dollar Remains Sensitive to US Labor DataEnd of week US stock market outlook – S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones chartsPost-FOMC US dollar surge shifts global markets – DXY outlookCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Stocks are finishing close to their highs but the ongoing close is not as impressive as metals, which are raging higher yet again: Silver just broke $43, new yearly highs.Nothing seems to stop the everything rally – Once again, the reflation trade is booming. It explains the entire flows of this year.Also, cryptocurrencies and particularly altcoins got slammed today, seemingly from profit-taking as nothing shocking appeared.Overall, the weekly close is certainly far from scary, but does offer some interesting pictures.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 19 – Source: OANDA Labs Today marked the comeback of the forgotten currencies of 2025 – The Canadian Dollar, which landed first of all majors, followed by the US Dollar and the Japan Yen.A fairly fresh picture as all of these currencies had been struggling since the onset of this year, with their fairly despicable fundamentals (bad economy for the Loonie, de-globalization for the USD and low rates for the Yen) – Are things changing or is this just some end-week flows? We'll see that next week.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. This weekend will see a few headlines releasing for economic-aficionados – Saturday will start with the European Economic and Financial Affairs Council to target economic coordinates measures for 27 member nations.Sunday will see the advent of the PBoC rate decision where huge stimulus is expected to be announced, particularly as some speakers previewed that the decision would be easier to make after the FED cut.For Monday, get ready for a flurry of Central Bank speakers throughout the entire day. The FX week is going to be an interesting one! Safe Trades and an enjoyble weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review - Fed Delivers Cut but Keeps Markets in Check A busy week that was still dominated by the highly anticipated Federal Reserve Meeting. I have to say, hats off to Fed Chair Powell who kept markets in check whether you think he is right or wrong in his decision. Believe me there is support in both camps.Fed Chair Powell in particular has been under pressure from the political sphere while labor data and mixed economic signals put the Fed Chair in the firing line. The Fed board itself faced a key decision as markets have turned extremely dovish in expectations ahead of the meeting.The message from the Fed balanced market expectations while not giving too much away and pushing back to some degree at least, the questions of Fed independence. So how did the markets perform?The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq stock indexes are on track to have their third consecutive week of gains. This positive trend was fueled by the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of 2025 and hints that more relaxed monetary policies could be on the way. A renewed sense of optimism around stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) also contributed to the market's rise.However, the US stock market was a bit unsteady earlier in the day. Investors were still trying to understand the Fed's future plans and were paying close attention to comments made by Stephen Miran, the newest Fed governor and a White House economic adviser, who spoke on CNBC on Friday morning.Also on Friday, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on the phone, and afterward, Trump announced that they had made progress on a deal for TikTok. He also said that the two leaders had agreed to a meeting in person next month in South Korea.So far in September, the three main US stock indexes—the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite—are all performing well. This is unusual because September has historically been a difficult month for the US stock market. Data shows that since the year 2000, the S&P 500 has, on average, lost 1.4% of its value during this month.Most Read: Post-FOMC US dollar surge shifts global markets – DXY outlookHow has the US Dollar Reacted?The US Dollar has been resilient since the decision and not surprising considering that what the Fed delivered was more hawkish than expected.For the Fed decision impact, read Caution Over Speed: How the Fed Framed Its First CutHowever, the Fed met expectations by announcing its first rate cut of the year and indicating there would be two more cuts. This caused the dollar to immediately drop by about 0.5% against other currencies.But within half an hour, the dollar had regained all of its lost value as US government bond yields started to rise again. This quick reversal was likely due to how traders were positioned in the market, rather than a change in how they viewed the Fed's announcement. It was a "trader's market"—meaning it was influenced more by short-term trading behaviors than by long-term economic signals.The US Dollar index (DXY) is ending the week with 3 successive days in the green.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, September 19, 2025 Source: TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Despite this rebound, the long-term outlook for the dollar doesn't seem very positive. The Fed has officially stated that the risk to its two main goals—stable prices and maximum employment—is now more focused on a weaker job market. With the expectation of two more rate cuts this year, bringing the policy rate down to 3.00-3.25%, the dollar could weaken. When the immediate market excitement dies down, the dollar is likely to fall back toward its lowest levels of the year and will become very sensitive to upcoming US job market data.The Week Ahead - Global PMIs and US PCE Next week is a busy one with Flash PMI survey data will provide a key focus for the markets in the coming week, though Friday's release of the US core PCE price index will also be eagerly awaited.Other releases of note include revised US GDP numbers, consumer confidence data for the US and Europe, plus US, home sales, durable goods orders and inventories.Asia Pacific Markets - Tokyo CPI High impact data will be a bit sparse from Asia next week with the biggest data release being from Japan.Tokyo CPI data will be released after the BoJ held rates steady but with a hawkish shift on Friday. Two officials on the central bank's board unexpectedly voted against the majority, showing a more "hawkish" view—meaning they are more concerned about inflation and are in favor of raising interest rates.The market was also caught off guard by the central bank's announcement that it would begin selling its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITs). This move is a strong sign that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is serious about gradually returning its monetary policy to normal.Based on these signals, I believe that an interest rate hike is a probability in October.Global PMI and US PCE Data in Focus Over the next week, several officials from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will be speaking publicly. This is an important opportunity to hear their individual views on the economy after the Fed recently decided to resume cutting interest rates. They'll likely provide more details on how they see the risks to the economy, especially after signaling that their main forecast is for two more rate cuts this year and one in the next.The most important data release will be the core personal consumer expenditure (PCE) deflator on Friday. This is the inflation measure the Fed prefers to use.While the core consumer price index (CPI) rose a bit more than expected last month, the core PCE is likely to show a more modest increase. This is because it gives less weight to housing costs and includes different data like airline fares and healthcare costs. If the core PCE comes in as expected, it would give the Fed a clear signal to move forward with more rate cuts in October and December.Additionally, new housing market data will be released. With more homes available for sale but still weak demand from buyers, there are growing concerns that home prices could start to fall.Looking at the Euro Area and based on recent data, business activity in August, measured by PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Indexes), was very positive, primarily because of a significant increase in manufacturing.However, a separate survey from the European Commission suggests that this boost might be a one-time event, as future expectations for the manufacturing sector weren't particularly strong.For September, this creates a question for economists: Will the positive mood from the summer continue, or was August's good performance just a brief exception? We think the latter is very possible, especially given that the economy is currently growing at a slow pace. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - Gold (XAU/USD) This week's Chart of the week is Gold.From a technical standpoint, Gold pulled back after the FOMC meeting and retested the bull flag pattern breakout from Monday.A bullish move since leaves gold on course for another week of gains above 1%. Gold is trading just shy of the $3700/oz handle.A weekly close above this level seems unlikely this late in the day which leaves Gold in a precarious position heading into the new week.Looking at the four-hour timeframe, Gold has recorded a change in structure but could be in for a short-term pullback before continuing higher.Gold has seen its price target updated by many institutions as a combination of potential US Fed rate cuts, along with continued central bank buying and ETF inflows are likely to keep Gold supported.That of course does not rule out small price retracements in the interim and that could come into play at some stage next week if profit taking does occur.If the US Dollar index retreats next week that could be another factor which could influence the trajectory of Gold prices, so keep an eye on that.Immediate support rests at 3666 before the 3656 and 3627 handles come into focus.Looking at the upside and immediate resistance rests at 3700 before all-time highs at 3707 comes into focus.Gold Four-Hour Chart Chart - September 19, 2025 Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Trade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A theme that had been building throughout this entire year was how a compromised Federal Reserve independence, combined with a more isolationist US policy (and de-globalization), would send the US dollar into shambles.In fact, this theme has been a favorite for Market enthusiasts, particularly as a compromised US dollar would participate in a rewiring of all financial flows.Since COVID, a spectacular rise in the USD supply has ramped up inflationary pressures, which got exacerbated by ever-higher government spending, hurting confidence in Fiat currencies.Particularly after the surprising dovish shift from FED speakers, initiated by Trump-appointed Governor Waller and Bowman, Market participants were afraid of a US central bank that would be pressured by the Trump administration and influenced in its activity, further hurting the Greenback.This turn accelerated even more after Powell's recent appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is known for providing market-shambling speeches from central bankers.It was argued that the speech wasn't as dovish as interpreted, but metals flying higher decided otherwise.Now, the tides have calmed: the Wednesday press conference, combined with a not-so-dovish 25 bps cut, has proven early dovish speak to be justified, and the US dollar, which had seen catastrophic days leading to the September meeting, is now making a sharp comeback.Let's examine multi-timeframe comprehensive charts of the Dollar Index (DXY) to see how this change may affect US dollar flows in the long run. Read More:Caution Over Speed: How the Fed Framed Its First CutGold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) find selling pressure from the post-FOMC stronger US dollarMarkets Today: BoJ Deliver Hawkish Hold, UK Retail Sales Beat, DAX Prints Morningstar Candle Pattern. Trump-Xi Phone Call AheadA re-upload of how US dollar movement influences metals Dollar Index and Metals comparative Performance since beginning August, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView This chart was uploaded on a piece published yesterday on metals (referenced just above) and is very pertinent to how USD ups-and-downs have a huge influence on trajectories for all asset classes, and particularly commodities.A Dollar Index (DXY) multi-timeframe comprehensive analysisDollar Index daily chart Dollar Index Daily Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView This Daily picture overlook retraces back to how volatile FX and US Dollar flows have been since September 2024.Between immense buying flows at the end of 2024, followed by a n-shape downard reversal for the USD throughout 2025, volatility-enthusiasts got exactly what they needed.You may observe the different themes and dynamics directly on the chart, but one thing to observe is how the most-recent fast-paced fall right ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting has been met with a consequent huge rally, with buying flows seeing continuation in today's session.We'll see more details on this on the short-timeframes, but a clear double bottom has taken shape – The rest will be to see how this will influence markets looking forward.Dollar Index 8H chart and levels Dollar Index 8H Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, we spot how sharp the rebound has been after a huge pre-FOMC descent which surprised Participants.Such hedging can occur, particularly ahead of such market-changing events, but the pace and shape of it was one of panic.The immediate reaction to the dot plot created new 2025 lows, but looking further, an inability of sellers to close below the June lows, supplemented by a switch in the dollar fundamentals has created another environment for a rebound.Nonetheless, the buying is currently stalling at the 200-period Moving Average just above the lows of the August range, acting as momentum pivot.Moving above the MA would further amplify the upward reversal.A rejection here, supplemented by a close below the pivot zone (97.25) would send the dollar to another wave of correction.Levels to watch for the Dollar Index:Support Levels:97.25 to 97.60 current pivot, low of August rangeMajor support at the 2025 lows 96.50 to 97.002025 lows 96.20Resistance Levels:MA 200, immediate resistance 97.9098.00 August Mid-Range, acting as resistance98.50 to 98.80 Resistance Zone100.00 Main resistance zoneDollar Index 1H chart Dollar Index 1H Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer to the 1H timeframe, we see how far and fast the reversal in the Dollar went, bringing the index back above its pivot zone and just above the Pre-FOMC downward trendline.Buyers will need to hold the retest of that trendline to maintain the path above (located right within the pivot) as overbought conditions put a short-term top to the move.Now, the rest will be to monitor if sellers to enter here again, invalidating this theme, but momentum doesn't look that way too much – Always keep an open-eye in case a reversal back down happens from here.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Fed cuts rate to 4.00–4.25% because of labor market situation in USInterest rate cuts in the Eurozone are in question due to inflation being under controlNegative divergence has appeared on EURUSD, which can be a sign of correction aheadFED Policy The United States Federal Reserve has decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the main rate to the 4.00-4.25% range. This is the first change after a nine-month pause in the cycle, and the decision itself is precautionary. The Fed, guided by a "risk management" approach, did not react to a specific economic shock but acted prudently amid increasing uncertainty.A new element of communication was the growing attention paid to the labor market situation – despite relatively stable inflation and unemployment, a slowdown in the pace of employment and limited recruitment activity are visible, which may indicate the market's susceptibility to deterioration. Non Farm Payrolls (in thousands), source: Bloomberg ECB Policy Meanwhile, in Europe, during the Eurogroup meeting in Copenhagen, members of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, Madis Muller and Mario Centeno, presented the ECB's monetary policy stance. The current policy remains moderately accommodative, and interest rates – including the deposit rate at 2% – have not changed in recent months. President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the ECB is at an opportune moment to achieve its 2% inflation target. Madis Muller noted that inflation is currently "more or less on target," and the current level of rates supports economic growth, which in the coming quarters will be more dependent on domestic demand. Mario Centeno, in turn, pointed out the current risks to growth and inflation, which he believes are trending downwards. He did not rule out a future interest rate cut, although he currently sees no urgent need for it. The ECB forecasts inflation at 1.9% in 2027 and GDP growth of 1.3%. Structural challenges, such as higher tariffs from the US, weak industrial demand, and a growing propensity to save, limit the potential for economic recovery in the euro area. HICP ECB Projections, source: European Central Bank EUR/USD EURUSD, daily timeframe, source: TradingView In the foreign exchange market, the EURUSD pair has been in an upward trend since mid-January, when the exchange rate rose from 1.0178 to 1.1918, representing an almost 17% increase. Despite this, technical analysis indicates the possibility of a correction – a negative divergence has formed between the price and the RSI indicator. In the region of 1.14, there is important technical support – both horizontal and resulting from previous corrections within the trend.A decline to this level could be merely a natural correction within a broad upward trend. Potential doubts about further US rate cuts could accelerate such a descent without disturbing the long-term upward structure. In turn, maintaining the current monetary policy in the euro area may strengthen the common currency's fundamentals against the dollar in the medium term. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory for a third straight day. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3820, up 0.18% on the day.Canada's retail sales slideCanada's retail sales declined by 0.8% m/m in July, a sharp dowrturn from the 1.6% gain in June. The volatility in retail sales reflects uncertainty over the US tariffs, which has affected consumer spending. August is expected to show a rebound, with a preliminary estimate of a 1% gain, which would make up for the July decline. US unemployment claims slipThere are no US releases today but there was positive news from the employment front on Thursday. Unemployment claims fell to 231 thouand last week, down from 264 thousand a week earlier, which was the highest reading since October 2021. The sharp spike in claims, together with soft nonfarm payrolls, had elevated concerns about the health of the US labor market.The latest unemployment claims release indicates that layoff are low, but hiring remains weak as the demand for workers has slowed. The Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on the labor market and Fed Chair Powell cited the downside risk to employment as the reason for the rate cut, the first since December 2024. USDCAD is testing resistance at 1.3808. Next, there is resistance at 1.38211.3796 and 1.3783 are providing support USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, September 19, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen climbed 0.50% earlier against the US dollar but was unable to consolidate these gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.92, down 0.04% on the day.Bank of Japan delivers hawkish holdThe Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.50% at today's meeting. The non-move was widely expected by the markets. What was a surprise was the split vote, as two of the nine members voted in favor of a rate hike, indicating some support for a more hawkish montary policy.Governor Ueda has been cautious and has the markets guessing as to when the BoJ will raise rates. The markets have priced in a 59% chance of a rate hike before the end of the year, up from 50% a week ago, according to LSEG. The policy statement noted that the domestic economy had "recovered moderately" but was still showing signs of weakness. Members also expressed concern that exports will be hurt by US tariffs, with Japan facing a 15% tarriff on most of its exports to the US.On the inflation front, the statement said that underlying inflation is weak but is expected to increase gradually and reach the 2% inflation target.After years of deflation, prices are moving higher, which has led to expectations that a rate hike is just a question of timing. Consumer inflation is running between 2.5-3%, above the BoJ's 2% target. The central bank has stressed that it wants to see sustainable underling inflation at around 2% before the next rate hike.The BoJ is also concerned about the political turmoil in Japan. Prime Minister Ishiba recently resigned and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is holding an election to choose a new leader.USD/JPY Technical USDJPY tested support at 1.4777 and 147.51 earlierThere is resistance at 148.12 and 148.38 USDJPY 4-Hour Chart, September 19, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00–4.25% after a nine-month pause, pairing the move with a cautious message.Powell framed the decision as “risk management,” downplaying a rapid cutting cycle.Statement language shifted toward rising “risks on the employment side,” even as inflation and jobless rates have nudged higher.The new dot plot trimmed the 2025 median to 3.6%, implying two more 25 bp cuts this year but with wide dispersion.A small move with outsized signaling power The week on markets centered on the Federal Reserve’s long-anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut, which lowered the federal funds target range to 4.00–4.25% after nine months on hold. The mechanics were expected; the weight came from how the decision was delivered and justified. Chair Jerome Powell chose prudence over drama, emphasizing a “risk-management” approach and tamping down expectations for a rapid succession of cuts.A near-unanimous vote—and a unified image The vote was almost unanimous. New Governor Stephen Miran favored a larger 50 bp cut, but previously hawkish voices—Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—joined the majority this time. That alignment reinforces the Fed’s image as coherent and independent, a point that matters in Washington’s politically charged climate.Subtle but telling shift in the statement The post-meeting statement made a nuanced pivot: the Fed now highlights rising “risks on the employment side.” In other words, even with a slight uptick in both inflation and unemployment, labor-market health is becoming the pivotal balance point. Slower job gains since spring, alongside a market with low hiring and low layoffs, suggest a fragile equilibrium—one that a wave of layoffs could quickly tip into a higher jobless rate.Powell’s press conference: risk management, not heroics Powell labeled the move a “precautionary cut.” He stressed the Fed’s dual risks: safeguarding maximum employment while preventing too-high inflation from becoming entrenched. In a setting where no path is risk-free, he argued, big, abrupt moves could do more harm than good. Hence the preference for incremental steps and maximum flexibility.The dot plot: lower median, wide uncertainty The new dot plot nudged the median policy rate for end-2025 down to 3.6% from 3.9% in July. On paper, that path leaves room for two additional 25 bp cuts this year. But the range—from 2.9% to 4.4%—underscores just how uncertain the outlook remains. Policymakers see no “strong justification” for larger moves, reinforcing a small-steps strategy that can adapt to incoming data. Dot plot chart, median of FOMC members' expectations regarding the future path of interest rates, source: Bloomberg The takeaway This week’s story wasn’t just the cut—it was the calibration of the message: caution over haste, stability over spectacle. From here, each jobs and inflation report will shape the pace, not the direction, of policy. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - BoJ Deliver Hawkish Hold Most Read: USD/JPY Technical: USD strength capped (again) below 148.95 range resistance, BoJ keeps rate hike hopes aliveA record-breaking global stock rally was slowed down after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its intention to sell off its large holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).This decision negatively impacted Asian markets, causing the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to slip by 0.4% and the Nikkei-225 Stock Average to drop about 0.7%. These declines reversed earlier gains that had been fueled by four key U.S. stock benchmarks all closing at all-time highs in unison for the first time since November 2021.Japanese stocks, in particular, saw their earlier gains erased after the BoJ revealed its plan to sell ETFs on a scale similar to its disposal of stocks bought from banks in the 2000s. The central bank's policy rate was, however, kept at 0.5% after a 7-2 vote.Despite this, Asian shares were headed for a weekly gain.Leading up to a phone call between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, Chinese blue chips CSI300 saw a small increase of 0.6% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng experienced a slight dip of 0.1%.Investors were carefully considering several key issues that could be discussed during the call. These included a potential deal regarding the popular social media app TikTok, Chinese tech giant Huawei's recent announcement about its chip plans, and an order from Beijing telling Chinese tech companies not to buy AI chips from Nvidia.UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates British retail sales grew by 0.5% in August 2025 compared to the previous month, which was the same rate of growth as July's revised figure. This was better than the expected 0.3% increase. The main drivers of this growth were strong sales at clothing stores, online retailers, and specialty food shops. Retailers noted that good weather was a major reason for the increased spending.However, the overall growth was slightly held back by a 2% drop in car fuel sales, as the prices for petrol and diesel were higher.Looking at a longer timeframe, sales over the three months leading up to August fell by only 0.1%, which is a much smaller decline than the 0.6% drop seen in the three months to July.Compared to August of last year, sales were up 0.7%, but this was a slower rate of increase than the 1.8% rise in July. When looking at the three months compared to the same period in 2024, sales were up 0.8%, but they are still 2.1% below the levels seen before the pandemic.Online sales also showed positive momentum, rising by 0.4% from the previous month and by 4.7% compared to the same time last year. This marked the seventh consecutive month of growth for online shopping. Source: UK ONS European Open - Shares Steady After Busy Week European stock markets were quiet on Friday, and they are likely to end a busy week slightly down. This week included important decisions from major central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, was mostly unchanged at 554.89.Technology stocks took a break from their recent rally, with companies like BE Semiconductor and ASML both seeing a drop of about 0.9%.Despite earlier gains, the STOXX index is still heading for a small weekly loss. This is due to ongoing concerns about high levels of government debt in the region and the potential negative impact of US tariffs on company profits in the coming months.In addition to the US Fed, the central bank of Norway also lowered its interest rates by 0.25%, while the Bank of England chose to keep its rates unchanged this week.In company news, Stabilus, a supplier for the industrial and automotive sectors, saw its shares fall by 2.8% after it announced a plan to cut 450 jobs globally as part of a cost-saving effort.Kuehne+Nagel shares dropped by 5.3% after Deutsche Bank lowered its rating on the Swiss logistics company from "Buy" to "Hold."Finally, the UK's Close Brothers saw a 6.7% slide in its shares after the lender announced it would postpone the release of its preliminary 2025 financial results by one week.On the FX front, On Friday, the Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar. This happened because, even though the Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rates unchanged, two of its board members voted in favor of a rate increase. At the same time, the central bank also announced plans to sell off its holdings of exchange-traded funds and real estate trusts.Meanwhile, the euro weakened slightly, falling by 0.1% to $1.1773. It gave back some of its weekly gains after hundreds of thousands of people in France participated in protests against government spending cuts on Thursday.The British pound dropped by 0.3% to $1.3512. This decline followed news that Britain's government borrowing had increased much more than official predictions, which are used to create the government's tax and spending budget. A day earlier, the Bank of England had kept its interest rates the same and decided to slow down the pace at which it sells off its government bonds.The New Zealand dollar, also known as the kiwi, fell by 0.4% to $0.5861. This extended its losses after experiencing its largest one-day drop since April, following the release of disappointing economic growth data for the second quarter.The offshore Chinese yuan was largely stable at 7.1111 per dollar, while the Australian dollar slipped by 0.3% to $0.6594.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs On Friday, oil prices dropped slightly. This happened because of concerns that people in the United States might not be using as much fuel. These worries overshadowed the hope that the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of the year would lead to more economic activity and, therefore, more fuel consumption.Specifically, the price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 17 cents to $67.27 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped by 19 cents to $63.38 per barrel.For more information on Oil, please read WTI Oil Rallies 1% After Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Oil Facilities, Russia Sanction Calls GrowGold prices remained unchanged on Friday as investors waited for more information about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. This pause came after the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower its interest rate by 0.25%, a move that did not fully satisfy investors who were hoping for more aggressive rate cuts in the coming months.The price of spot gold was nearly flat at $3,646.29 per ounce. This is after the price had reached a record high of $3,707.40 just two days earlier on Wednesday.For more information on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Soars to Breach $3700/oz. FOMC Meeting Next, Will the Rally Continue?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session is a quiet one.The main event for the day will be a potential call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping which may shed further light on US-China relations.Beyond that we will also hear the first comments from new Federal Reserve policymaker Stephen Miran which could stoke some volatility. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX bounced yesterday printing a bullish engulfing daily candle close.This also resulted in a morningstar candlestick pattern being formed which hints at further upside.There is significant resistance just up ahead with the 20,50 and 100-day MAs all resting within a 200 point range between the 23800 and 24032 mark.The DAX will need to gain acceptance above these levels if the rally higher is to continue.The RSI period-14 is also attempting to break above the 50 level which would signal a shift in momentum in favor of bulls. A rejection here could be a sign that bulls are not yet in control and could lead to a retest of the recent lows at 23284 and potentially support at 23471.DAX Index Daily Chart, September 19. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 18Today's story was one of a FOMC rate decision that American Markets loved. Between a comeback in the US Dollar and Nasdaq rallying to new highs, traders loved the atmosphere.Tech stocks led the charge after the acquisition news that Nvidia had acquired a stake in Intel, propelling related names like CrowdStrike and Synopsys higher.Still, the Dow Jones closed near the same lows seen during the FOMC’s intraday down-wick, a dynamic that will be worth watching in the coming sessions. By contrast, the Russell 2000 marked fresh all-time highs—a first since November 2024—underscoring the rotation into smaller caps.The underlying theme is one of a Fed independence that finally wasn't gone too far (for now at least).Powell’s not-so-dovish speech reassured US investors that the central bank decision-making is still guided by economic fundamentals rather than political pressure.Repeating what I mentioned on this Gold/Silver piece released earlier, Bowman and Waller, early birds for Rate cut calls got proven right by a degrading labor market which indeed gave them further credibility.For the US Dollar, there is still plenty of ground to cover before reaching pre-August highs, but the price action no longer carries the bearish tone that dominated over the summer.On the geopolitical side, President Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer appeared in a joint conference, reiterating alignment on the Russia-Ukraine war and broader global issues.While differences emerged on some details, the talks highlighted stronger US-UK unity.Bloomberg also reported that European LNG purchases from Russia are set to be phased out at a faster pace, reflecting the region’s accelerated shift away from Moscow’s energy supply. Read More:Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) find selling pressure from the post-FOMC stronger US dollarUS Stock Market rally: Fed’s 25 bps cut, Nvidia-Intel Deal, and strong Jobless Claims fuel gainsNZDUSD weakens sharply after the FOMC, losing 2% in two daysCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cryptos and tech related risk-assets have performed well overall today, as the mood got pretty optimistic from the latest rate cut.However, Long-end bonds are getting hammered from higher issuance and a further inverted-yield curve.Commodities also didn't like their session very much, a tighter USD is the culprit of this.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 18 – Source: OANDA Labs The largest outstander from today was the Kiwi which got absolutely murdered from the huge miss in their GDP data (-0.9% vs -0.3%) expected, which directly put back more cuts on the table for the RBNZ (check out our most recent NZDUSD analysis!)For the rest, the theme is one of a comeback from the US Dollar which finishes the strongest of majors – An update to our most recent DXY analysis is more than warranted.For the rest, The Canadian Dollar held a decent performance today – Forex seems to get back to interesting points after all the Central Bank Rate decisions.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not entirely over for JPY traders and with also a bit of data for NZD:At 18:45, we’ll see the New Zealand trade balance (−$3.94B prev.) and from the UK, GfK Consumer Confidence (−18 cons. vs −17 prev.).Shortly after, Japan releases August CPI (19:30) : headline (3.1% prev.), ex food/energy (3.4% prev.), and ex fresh food (3.1% cons. vs 2.7% prev.) which may preview some changes to the closely followed by the BoJ rate decision (0.5% hold expected) and policy statement, with Markets still on the outlook for any communication regarding future hikes.Friday also has some decent data points, particularly from Europe with German PPI (−1.8% YoY consensus) and UK retail sales (MoM 0.4% cons) both releasing at 2:00 A.M.The BoJ press conference follows at 2:30, key for yen direction and will be closely watch by participants (even as they wake up the day after) – Carry trades are still into play!Later in the day, focus shifts to North America with Canada retail sales at 8:30 A.M. ET (−0.8% MoM estimate) and Fed’s Daly speech closing the week. Safe Trades in this huge Central Bank week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold and Silver are subject to immediate pressure as the US Dollar regains strength and reputation after yesterday's FOMC meeting.The challenged independence of the Fed was a major driver behind the immense rally metals enjoyed from late August into early September, as Powell’s shift in tone from the Jackson Hole conference cast doubt on the Fed’s consistency amid still high inflation.Yet the dovish stance advocated by Bowman and Waller, seen as President Trump's protege-appointees ahead of the Sep FOMC—was vindicated by subsequent NFP misses and the downward revisions in BLS data.This is leading to the Federal Reserve regaining back some of its lost confidence throughout the past few months. Dollar Index and Metals comparative Performance since beginning August, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver rallied 18.67% from its July 31st trough to its Tuesday peak, while Gold surged from $3,268 on July 30th to fresh all-time highs at $3,707.Despite the ongoing pullback, prices remain near their highs.Still, the balance is tilting towards a more neutral trend: With Powell delivering a less dovish message than markets had priced in, the renewed resilience of the US Dollar could set the stage for tighter price action ahead.Let's dive into two timeframe charts for both Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to see where the current trading takes us and where to look going forward. Read More:US Stock Market rally: Fed’s 25 bps cut, Nvidia-Intel Deal, and strong Jobless Claims fuel gainsNZDUSD weakens sharply after the FOMC, losing 2% in two daysUSD/CAD Outlook: Head and Shoulder Pattern in Play as Fundamentals Provide Interesting DilemmaGold and Silver two-timeframe pictureGold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold responded remarkably to the technical-Fibonacci induced resistance mentioned in our most recent Gold analysis.We precedently expressed how overbought levels don't imply tops, particularly amid strong performance and momentum.However, Daily RSI is starting to shape downwards and may not help to sustain the current levels.There is still an ongoing consolidation that is happening from the intermediate lows, which demands a closer look.Gold (XAUUSD) 2H Chart and levels Gold (XAUUSD) 2H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Selling momentum is currently stalling but the bigger timeframe outlook is showing signs of slowdown within the current trend, particularly when seeing the broken upward trendline that led to the new $3,707 All-time Highs.Look for breakouts either above or below the Micro support and resistance zones, with their levels detailed just below. Levels of interest for Gold trading:Support:Micro support $3,620 to $3,630Previous ATH and now long-term Pivot around $3,500 (+/- $15)Previous Range Highs $3,400 to $3,450 (minor support)$3,300 Major Support$3,000 Main psychological levelResistance and potential technical targets (due to all-time highs, can only use potential targets):Micro resistance $3,660 to $3,675FOMC and All-time highs Highs $3,707Fibonacci-Extension 1 from April Lows to April highs ($3,640 to $3,705) (Immediate resistance)Potential, Fibonacci-Extension 2 from 2018 to Oct 2024 induced target: $3,750 to $3,815 (Purple square on Weekly)Silver (XAGUSD) Daily Chart Silver (XAGUSD) Daily Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since our most recent Silver Analysis, prices did effectively break out of its daily upward channel but found technical resistance (to complement the fundamental resistance) at the higher bound of the Higher timeframe channel (in Blue).Look at the Daily RSI also showing some type of divergence – Overall, despite the action still hanging at the highs, it looks like some intermediate correction might come into play.Let's have a closer look.Silver (XAGUSD) 2H Chart and levels Silver (XAGUSD) 2H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The selling from this yesterday to this morning's session has stalled a bit and short-term momentum is back to neutral.Prices are now contained between an short-term resistance and support zone, in the ongoing $41.20 to $42 range.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:$42 psychological level and micro-resistance50-Period MA 50 42.17$43 to $44 resistance (Most recent peak $42.97)August 2011 $44.25 topSupport Levels:Micro resistance around $41.20$39.50 to $40 key pivot zone$38.75 to $39 Key levels2012 Highs Support around 37.50Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US indices are riding an intense wave of optimism following the Federal Reserve’s 25-bps rate cut, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all pushing higher. (As I write this piece, some profit-taking might be into play, watch the daily highs for a further push).Nvidia (NVDA) sparked extra momentum after announcing it would acquire part of Intel’s (INTC) equity, sending Intel stock soaring over 25% in early session trading. Tech peers like CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Synopsys (SNPS) also extend gains, underscoring a broader sector rally. US Equity heatmap, look at the +26.30% (Intel) – September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Powell’s speech painted a not-so-bleak picture of the US economy, while the dot plot still signaled 50 bps of easing potential through year-end 2025. Combined with stronger-than-expected Jobless Claims this morning (231K vs 240K exp), bulls found another reason to drive risk assets higher. With momentum back on their side, traders will be watching closely to see if equities can sustain this rally until the end of the week.Data dependency was once again highlighted throughout yesterday's FOMC and will be back on the front lines for participants' watchlists. The FED Independence seems to have gained back some ground after yesterday's decision, but it will be key to see what FED members say looking forward.Let's take a look at intraday charts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones.Technical outlook and levels for the 3 Main US Indices All three indices are in a seemingly unstoppable move since the beginning of September. Let's try to look at the extent of the moves and potential levels of interest for each index as price discovery continues.S&P 500 4H chart and levels S&P 500 4H Chart , September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 marked another record high at 6,669 just this morning but has started to show some slowing in momentum – bears just rejected trading below the immediate upward trendline.The FOMC lows are still very far from current trading (6,562) and will act as a key Pivot point for momentum strength between bulls and bears. The wick from yesterday's volatile trading actually tested the 50-Period MA, which will give it some extra emphasis looking forward.S&P 500 Trading Levels:Resistance LevelsDaily highs 6,669 (new ATH)Higher timeframe potential resistance between 6,650 and 6,700 level (1.618 from April lows, currently testing)6,700 psychological levelSupport LevelsFOMC lows 6,562 and MA 506,490 to 6,512 pivot6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Nasdaq 4H chart and levels Nasdaq 4H Chart , September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq was onto a heavy upward train, up 7.06% from trough to peak since beginning September right after showing hesitant signs.Since, positive news throughout tech and ever-bigger acquisitions have propelled the tech-heavy index to new all-time highs (24,602) – however, with some Fibonacci targets being attained, profit-taking is currently going through and will have to be monitored.For bear momentum, watch a close below 24,350 – For Bull continuation, watch a close above the ATH.Nasdaq technical levels of interestResistance LevelsCurrent daily highs (24,602)Daily Resistance (from August 20 lows) 24,550 to 24,600 (immediate)Potential Resistance 2 fib-Extension (from August lows) 24,800Support LevelsFib-projection now Momentum pivot 24,350Previous ATH zone turning pivot (23,950 to 24,020)23,500 support23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportDow Jones 4H chart and levels Dow Jones 4H Chart , September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bulls are getting back in control after yesterday's hawkish-tone led to some profit-taking in the index.The current session is a strong one, but some sellers are currently taking some momentum back. Buyers are once again fighting to get out of the upward trendline of the rising wedge formation and are very close to it – A level to watch in that aspect would be a daily close above the All-time high level formed at yesterday's announcement: 46,425.Watch momentum as the session moves forward.Levels for Dow Jones trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high and Rising wedge breakout: 46,425 1.618 from April correction potential resistance 46,400 to 46,830High of channel and 1.618% Fib of July move 47,000 to 47,160 (potential resistance)Support Levels46,000 Momentum Pivot and 50-period MA (45,807)45,283 previous significant ATHKey Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound has posted losses on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3551, down 0.54% on the day.Bank of England maintains rates at 4% The Bank of England stayed on the sidelines at today's meeting, maintaining interest rates at 4.0%. This followed a quarter-point cut in August. The decision was anticipated by the markets and the British pound is showing limited movement. The 7-2 vote saw two members vote for a quarter-point cut. Last month's decision to lower rates was decided by a 5-4 vote and took an unprecedented two rounds. The split votes reflect dissension within the BoE with regard to the Bank's future monetary policy.The BoE has been trying to balance rising inflation, which supports holding rates, with the slowdown in the jobs market, which is putting pressure on the central bank to lower rates and ease economic conditions. The BoE cannot ignore inflation, which rose to 3.8% in August, close to double the BoE's target of 2%. Unless inflation slows markedly, the BoE may have to wait until 2026 to lower rates. Governor Bailey tried to put a positive spin on high inflation, saying he expected it to return to target, but the inflation still remained a threat and future cuts would have to be made "gradually and carefully".How bad is the employment market? In the minutes of the meeting, the MPC said that its forecast showed employment growth at zero, which it said was partly due to the increase in employer national insurance contributions.Fed lowers rates for first time since December 2024 Federal Reserve lowers ratesThe Federal Reserve lowered rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. The decision, which was widely expected, was the first rate cut since December 2024.The rate statement cited the cooling labor market as the main reason behind the rate cut. In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his concern about the deteriorating job market and said that the risk of higher and more persistent inflation has eased.Perhaps the highlight of the meeting was the 'dot plot', which charts the expected rate path of members who participated at the meeting. The dot plot indicated that most members expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year, which means the Fed is in a dovish mood.GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.3617 and 1.3573 and is testing 1.3552. Below, there is support at 1.3508There is resistance at 1.3638 and 1.3682 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.