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ECB: Higher inflation and more rate hikes – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank economists note the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged in March but now expects two 25 bp hikes in June and September, already fully priced by markets. The deposit rate sits at 2.0%, seen as neutral.

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Hungary: Policy reset and euro path – ING

ING economists Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky say Hungary’s new Tisza-led supermajority reduces short-term policy uncertainty and raises expectations for institutional repair, EU relations and fiscal credibility.

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United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (4.06M) in March: Actual (3.98M)

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (4.06M) in March: Actual (3.98M)

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United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -3.6% in March from previous 1.7%

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -3.6% in March from previous 1.7%

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USD: Oil-linked scenarios shape Dollar outlook – HSBC

HSBC's report on G8 currencies argues that Middle East geopolitics and Oil remain the dominant drivers for the Dollar and major FX. The bank highlights a recently strengthened USD–Oil correlation driven by supply shock and safe-haven flows.

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NZD/USD weakens after US-Iran talks collapse, Oil jump boosts Fed hawks

NZD/USD moves lower at the start of the week and trades around 0.5830 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day after the failure of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran over the weekend.

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Global outlook: IMF set to cut growth forecasts – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad points to upcoming IMF publications as key for assessing global risks.

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WTI Crude Oil stalls below $98.00 with Iran peace hopes still alive

Oil prices jumped on Monday following the failure of the peace talks between the US and Iran and the US pledge to block the Strait of Hormuz.

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Gold builds on intraday ascent amid modest USD pullback; upside potential seems limited

Gold (XAU/USD) touches a fresh daily high during the first half of the European session and looks to build on its intraday bounce from the $4,633-$4,632 area, or a four-day low, touched earlier this Monday.

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HUF: Election outcome boosts Forint as EU risk recedes – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team reports that Hungary’s election delivered a decisive victory for Péter Magyar’s pro‑EU Tisza party over Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, easing concerns about future EU budget and Ukraine aid negotiations.

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Iran criticizes US for blockade of vessels

According to a report from the Iranian state media Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), a spokesperson from Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said during European trading hours on Monday that Tehran condemns the United States (US) intentions to blockade vessels entering and exiti

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S&P 500: Earnings optimism versus conflict shock – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s strategists highlight that S&P 500 futures are lower as the Iran conflict escalates and energy prices jump, pressuring global risk sentiment.

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EUR: Political shift fails to lift currency – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Global Daily notes the Euro is weaker in early Asian trading despite a decisive victory for Peter Magyar’s pro‑EU Tisza party over Viktor Orban’s Fidesz in Hungary.

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EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro hesitates around 0.8700 amid cautious markets

EUR/USD remains trapped within a tight range between 0.8695 and 0.8725.

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Australian Dollar trades mixed on renewed Middle East conflicts, job data awaited

The Australian Dollar (AUD) demonstrates a mixed performance against its major currency peers, still trading 0.2% lower to near 0.7050 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday, even after recovering a major chunk of its opening losses.

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Japanese Yen stays weak against USD; intervention fears keep USD/JPY below 160.00

The USD/JPY pair opens with a bullish gap at the start of a new week, though it lacks follow-through buying and remains below the 160.00 psychological mark heading into the European session.

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EUR/HUF: Regime change supports forint outlook – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that Hungary’s election delivered a supermajority for Peter Magyar’s Tisza party, easing transition risks and opening scope for structural reforms.

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Forex Today: Safe-haven demand returns as US-Iran talks collapse

Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 13:

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USD/INR gains strongly as US-Iran failed negotiations lift oil prices

The Indian Rupee (INR) falls sharply in the opening trade against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week.

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EUR/USD holds near 1.1700 despite the deteriorated market sentiment

The (EUR) retreated from last week’s highs near 1.1740 against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, but so far is holding well in the upper 1.1600s. The pair is trading at 1.1685 at the time of writing, having been supported at 1.1670 earlier in the day.

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