The Kiwi’s slide has been one that hasn't been seen in a while, with NZDUSD dropping 2% in just two sessions. The pair had initially climbed ahead of the FOMC, driven by dovish concerns around the Fed and sudden Dollar-hedging that briefly pressured the DXY (sending the US Dollar down, hence the pair shooting upwards). However, Powell’s balanced tone quickly flipped that narrative, erasing the priced-in dovishness observed in the SEP, dot plot, and FOMC statement.“You can think of this, in a way, as a risk management cut,” Powell noted, striking a cautious stance around future cuts that steadied the USD. There are still 25 bps of cuts priced at each of the two meetings left in 2025. Strong US Jobless Claims (231k vs 240K exp) this morning reinforced that shift, further fueling a V-shaped reversal in the greenback. Coupled with New Zealand’s atrocious GDP miss (-0.9% vs -0.3% q/q), the Kiwi was left in dismay, driving the pair sharply lower.The current move is reflecting the repricing of more cuts for the RBNZ as the data has been very volatile for New Zealand throughout the year. Expectations for a rate cut at the RBNZ upcoming meeting were at 82% last week and a 25 bps cut is now fully priced, with some extra premium in case of a larger 50 bps.The NZ OCR is at 3% and the upcoming meeting will be happening on October 8th.Let's have a look at NZDUSD through a multi-timeframe outlook to see where this takes the major pair. Read More: EUR/USD Technical: Euro bullish trend intact despite 1.2% sell-off after FOMCMarkets Today: Gold Retreats, Equities Choppy as Markets Digest Fed Decision, DAX Up 1%. BoE Meeting Up NextBank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Preview: Maintaining the Status Quo. Implications for USD/JPYA parenthesis on the DXY chart: Look at its V-Shape reversal since yesterday! DXY 1H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView NZDUSD 8H Chart NZDUSD 8H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The downward shaping RSI right ahead of the FOMC was well located: Prices reached the 0.60 resistance before getting slammed lower as the Powell press-conference started.RSI has shot down lower catching up with the ongoing move – The selling is showing no pity to the bulls, with prices consolidating slightly at the 0.59 Support which got swiftly broken.Some immediate but small scale mean-reversion is stopping the descent, but the price action is brutal.NZDUSD 2H Chart NZDUSD 2H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView At its extreme, the ongoing move downwards is of about 1350 pips or 2.25% in the pair from peak to trough. Particularly after very slow FX trading, such data officially reinstores volatility for the end of this year.Get ready to see more volatile data and price swings for NZDUSD and other pairs looking forward.Levels to watch for in NZDUSD trading: Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 0.600.5950 Main Pivot now Resistance200-period MA 0.59150 Support Levels0.59 (+/- 150 pips) Support (broken)Current session lows 0.58725September lows 0.583300.58 Key SupportWatch for further volatile swings looking forward and stay in touch with the latest data as every central banks will be looking at the news for their decision-making.The Dollar index is reaching an interesting level and NZDUSD is taking a breather, stay locked in for upcoming action.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The euro has continued to rally against the greenback from the 1 August 2025 low of 1.1392 and broke above its recent 52-week high of 1.1830 printed on 1 July 2025, within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since 13 January 2025The EUR/USD hit a 4-year high of 1.1919 on Wednesday, 17 September, at the onset of the FOMC announcement of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut to bring down the Fed funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, and the release of the latest summary of economic projections (dot plot) that indicates two more projected interest rate cuts of 25 bps each before 2025 ends.Post FOMC sell-off due to a less “dovish” Fed Chair Powell’s press conference Thereafter, the EUR/USD erased all its early intraday gains and closed lower by -0.5% at the end of Wednesday, 17 September 2025, US session due to a less “dovish” Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.Powell described the latest policy move as a “risk management” cut, emphasising that the Fed will remain data-dependent and proceed “meeting by meeting.” This stance reduced expectations of a deeper, new cycle of monetary policy easing.The EUR/USD extended its decline in today’s Asia session, hitting a low of 1.1780, a drop of 1.2% from yesterday’s post-FOMC high of 1.1919.The Fed funds futures market is still implying three interest rate cuts in 2026 Fig. 1: Aggregated FOMC meeting probabilities on Fed funds rate as of 18 Sep 2025 (Source: CME FedWatch tool) Despite Fed Chair Powell’s “meeting by meeting” rhetoric and the latest updated dot plot projections that show only a 25-bps cut in 2026, market participants in the Fed funds futures market are still expecting at least three interest rate cuts of 25 bps each in 2025 to bring the Fed funds rate to 2.75%-3.00% in 2026, according to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool (see Fig. 1).A continuation of dovish expectations implied by the Fed funds futures market is likely to cap the strength of the US dollar, in turn, creating a positive feedback loop back into the EUR/USD.Let’s now examine the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch on the EUR/USD. Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 18 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) The current decline of 1.2% seen in the EUR/USD from its post-FOMC high of 1.1919 is likely a minor corrective decline within its ongoing minor uptrend phase in place since the 1 August 2025 low of 1.1392.Bullish bias on the EUR/USD above 1.1790/1.1770 key short-term pivotal support, and a break above 1.1860 sees a retest on 1.1910 before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 1.1970/1.2000 (Fibonacci extension and the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The EUR/USD has shaped an hourly bullish reversal candlestick at the 1.1790/1.1770 key short-term support.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout from its parallel descending resistance after it hit its oversold level in today’s Asian session. These observations indicate a short-term bullish momentum revival for the EUR/USD.The yield spread between the 2-year German Bund and the US Treasury note has continued to trend higher (narrowing) from -1.63% on 16 September to -1.54% at the time of writing.This development indicates a relative decline in the yield attractiveness of the 2-year US Treasury versus its German counterpart, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the US dollar against the euro.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 1.1770 key short-term support invalidates the bullish scenario on the EUR/USD to see a deeper minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.1700 (also the 20-day moving average) and 1.1675 (also the 50-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The New Zealand dollar has posted sharp losses on Thursday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5904, down 0.97%.New Zealand's GDP slides by 0.97%New Zealand's economy took a tumble in the second quarter, declining 0.9% q/q. This was a sharp downturn from the Q1 gain of 0.9% and below the market estimate of -0.3%. The economy has contracted in three of the last five quarters. Annually, GDP declined 0.6%, unchanged from the first quarter and well below the market estimate of 0%. The New Zealand dollar is down 1% on the soft GDP reading.The GDP report showed broad weakness across the economy as construction and manufacturing posted declines and services were flat. The economy has been hurt by weak global demand and US tariffs on New Zealand, which have been set at 15%. The weak GDP data will put pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower rates before the end of the year. The RBNZ meets next month and the markets have fully priced in a rate cut, with an 82% chance of a a quarter-cut and an 18% likelihood of a half-point reduction.Fed delivers with rate cutThe Federal Reserve lowered rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. The decision, which was widely expected, was the first rate cut since December 2024. For the second straight time, the vote was not unanimous, as one member voted for a half-point cut.The rate statement pointed a finger at the cooling labor market as the main reason behind the cut. In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell reiterated concern about the deteriorating job market and said that the risk of higher and more persistent inflation has eased.Perhaps the highlight of the meeting was the 'dot plot', which charts the expected rate path of members who participated at the meeting. The dot plot indicated that most members expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year.NZD/USD Technical NZDUSD has pushed below support at 0.5973 and 0.5939 and is testing support at 0.5915There is resistance at 0.5957 and 0.6031 NZDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 18, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Preview: Maintaining the Status Quo. Implications for USD/JPYUSD/CAD is at a crossroads in many ways and the technicals are showing some interesting patterns. Given that both the Fed and BoC chose to cut rates today could the technicals lead the way in the weeks to come?There is a possibility that the technicals could dominate for now but moving forward I expect the pace of rate cuts to come into play as well as the performance of Oil prices, which will impact the Canadian Dollar.Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and following the trendline breakout at the end of July and rally to just above the 1.3900 mark, USD/CAD has been stuck in a range.We do have the formation of a head and shoulder pattern which has now formed but price is bouncing higher at the time of writing.Now a break of the neckline at 1.3723 and candle close below could trigger a potential 200-pip selloff and retest of the 1.3500 psychological level.A bounce from here though will face resistance at the 1.3900 handle before the psychological 1.4000 handle comes into focus.The 100-day MA is serving as support at present with the daily candle closing back above after a candle closed below the 100-day MA yesterday.Looking at the RSI and it is hovering below the 50 neutral level, a sign that bearish momentum is leading the way for now.So will we get a break or bounce?USD/CAD Daily Chart, September 18, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Fundamental Factors Ahead - Will Rate Differentials and Trade Agreements Play a Role? The Bank of Canada cut its interest rate by a quarter of a percent today, which was widely expected. They didn't provide much information about what they plan to do in the future. The Bank of Canada's rate is now 2.50%, which is still much lower than the US Federal Reserve's rate is, following the Fed rate cut today.It makes sense that the Bank of Canada is hesitant to promise more rate cuts right now. However, based on their overall view of the economy and inflation risks, it seems likely that this won't be the final rate cut in this cycle.However the Fed are still expected to cut rates more aggressively than the BoC over the next 12 months. According to the implied rates updated post FOMC and BoC meetings, markets are pricing in around 134.5 bps of rate cuts through September 2026, while for the BoC markets are only expecting 26.9 bps of cuts. Source LSEG This should work in favor of Canadian Dollar strength against the US Dollar in the months ahead.Of course other factors could come into play such as the performance of Oil prices, tariff developments between the US and Canada including the USMCA renegotiation.The agreement that is in place is protecting Canada from the worst of US tariffs. If the U.S. threatens to pull out of this deal, it would increase business uncertainty and could hurt the job market even more.I believe that all the necessary conditions are in place for another interest rate cut in December, and there is even a chance it could happen sooner in October for the BoC.For now, I see this as the final cut of the cycle, but can't completely rule out more easing at this point, especially given the ongoing risks related to trade.This is something which could cap Canadian Dollar gains against the US Dollar moving forward. All in all a lot to consider for USD/CAD traders and interesting times ahead.Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on USDCAD with 61% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means USD/CAD prices could rise in the near-term.Best of Luck.For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: USD/JPY Technical: Yen eyeing a medium-term bullish breakout against USD from a 5-month rangeThe Bank of Japan is broadly expected to keep its policy rate at 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, 2025. The future economic outlook remains cautious because of political uncertainty within Japan and challenges from international trade. Source: LSEG Source: LSEG The value of the US dollar against the Japanese yen will mainly be affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's meeting will also have an impact, but it will likely be less significant. However, if Governor Ueda says something unexpected, it could cause a major rise in the value of the yen, breaking its current trading range of 147 to 149.The Anticipated Bank of Japan Policy Decision: Maintaining the Status Quo The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to keep its interest rate at 0.5% this week, a rate it has held since January. This cautious, "wait-and-see" approach is due to a few key reasons.First, there is political uncertainty in Japan, and the central bank wants to avoid making any sudden policy changes that could cause more economic instability. Second, the BOJ is still evaluating the full impact of a new U.S.-Japan trade deal and U.S. tariffs, which are hurting Japanese exports.Interestingly, the BOJ is prioritizing economic stability over controlling inflation, even though inflation is running high and outpacing wage growth. This difference between the central bank's policy and the domestic inflation reality could potentially lead to market problems in the future.Forward-Looking Monetary Policy: The Outlook Beyond September The market expects the Bank of Japan to keep its interest rate unchanged in September but believes they will start raising rates soon. Many traders think there's a strong chance of a rate hike before the end of 2025 and more hikes by the middle of next year. Source LSEG Looking at the implied rates based on LSEG data, we can see markets are pricing in around 50 bps of cuts through December 2026. Now this may not seem like a lot, but it is the BoJ we are talking about.Since no new forecasts will be released at the meeting, the market's reaction will depend entirely on what Governor Kazuo Ueda says at his press conference.The Bank of Japan is known for its vague communication. If Governor Ueda continues to be vague, the market will likely have a small reaction. However, if he sounds surprisingly direct about future rate hikes, it would confirm the market's aggressive expectations. Because of this, his words could cause a large and sudden shift in the market.The Dual-Central Bank Catalyst: Impact on USD/JPY The value of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen is primarily driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies. When investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates, the dollar typically falls against the yen. This is especially relevant this week, as a Fed rate cut has been delivered as expected.The market generally expects the US to cut rates while Japan eventually raises them, a situation that would likely cause the dollar to weaken against the yen. While the Bank of Japan's decision is also important, its effect will be largely shaped by the Fed's actions. The Fed's influence on the currency pair is much stronger.Given that market expectations are for 50 bps of rate cuts from the Fed before the year-end on top of the 25 bps delivered this week, the Yen could be poised for gains moving forward over the medium term. Source: Google Gemini Technical Analysis USD/JPY USD/JPY from a technical standpoint has been giving signs of a bullish rally, but the potential effects of rate differentials could come into play.On a weekly timeframe, the long-term descending trendline had been broken a while ago and since then USD/JPY has been trapped in a range between 145.00 and 150.00 handle with a brief foray higher being met by swift selling pressure.There is also an ascending trendline from the April lows just below the 140.00 handle.The daily candle has closed as a hammer candlestick bouncing of the trendline and the 100-day MA at 146.21.Immediate resistance is provided by the 50-day MA which rests at 147.67 before the 200-day MA at 148.62 comes into focus.A break of the ascending trendline could lead to a push toward the 145.00 handle before the swing low at 143.33 comes into focus.USD/JPY Daily Chart, September 17, 2025 Source: TradingView Trade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 17Both the Bank of Canada (2.75% → 2.50%) and the Federal Reserve (4.50% → 4.25%) cut their rates today which helped to sustain some decent strength in the Canadian Dollar despite pretty negative talks on the Canadian Economy at the decision.The FED actually provided a fairly hawkish cut when looking at the speech from Powell. The Federal Reserve Chair emphasized the decision being centered around the labor market despite economic activity being more than decent.Jerome Powell did mention the resilience of the American consumer and the stable inflation expectation throughout his press conference – This took out the initial dovishness that got priced right after the 14:00 announcement.BoC Governor Macklem expressed some concerns about the Canadian Economy, while still precising that the current pace is more one of a slowdown that an actual recession.You can access his comments right here.Elsewhere, today showed the revelation that US Treasury's Scott Bessent also was found to have listed two homes as principal residence, the same as Lisa Cook as the case progresses – She is still part of the FED and will take back her responsibilities if the case goes to court.China also decided to cut Nvidia chip purchases in the latest round of the ongoing Trade War between the US and China.This might come as a piece of negotiation ahead of the Xi-Trump call that should be taking place on Friday. Read More:Bank of Canada cuts rates to 2.50%, FOMC coming up!— North American mid-week Market updateThe Federal Reserve 25 bps cut sends markets on fire – SEP, Powell's speech and Market reactionsCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView As per usual for such a key FOMC day, the session was a rollercoaster.Initial rallies in stocks, metals and bonds got met with sharp reversals as Powell's conference progressed.The most resilient index amid the pullbacks was the Dow Jones which appreciated from the rate cut, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gave back some of their optimism due to higher rate projections in 2026 when looking at the dot plot.Overall, the FED will still be data dependent and traders will have to deal with that fact. There is still about 50 bps of cuts priced in towards the end of 2025.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 17 – Source: OANDA Labs The speech from Powell brought back some of the USD strength in his usual balancing tone.Look at the swing in the USD between 14:00 and around 15:00 - The greenback finishes the session at its highs. It particularly hurt the currencies which appreciated in the past week, with a focus on European FX.The currency market will be interesting in the upcoming days particularly after the most recent swings in majors - Overall, data dependency will be back to moving markets moving forward, so stay in touch with the Economic calendar moving forward.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. After today’s wild Bank of Canada and FOMC rate cuts, the week is still far from over:Today's evening session welcomes huge data for Antipodean traders, including New Zealand's GDP (18:45) and Australian Employment (21:30) – Both currencies and particularly the AUD have been strong in the past few weeks, putting some more emphasis on tonight's releases.Thursday promises to be huge, kicking off with a flurry of ECB speeches overnight (another one by Lagarde, de Guindos, Schnabel, Nagel), adding to potential euro volatility – ECB speakers have been generous with speeches as of late which took out further rate cuts priced in 2026.At 07:00 ET, all eyes turn to the Bank of England’s rate decision, minutes, and vote breakdown — a potential high-impact event for GBP.After the most recent cut, the BoE is expected to maintain its rates at 4% amid high inflation but we can never know with the Bank of England.The U.S. follows at 08:30 ET with Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed survey, key checks on labour and manufacturing.Later, New Zealand releases trade data at 18:45 ET, but the biggest piece of the session will be for the JPY traders (and actually all traders are looking at this):The National CPI for Japan at 19:00 ET. but most importantly, the Bank of Japan interest rate decision expected for tonight anytime between 19:30 and 20:30 (time not specified). Safe Trades in this huge Central Bank week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.This week finally lands some fundamental change for the currency space, and this will influence Markets for the time to come.After North American Central Banks holding due to tariffs uncertainty, the latest round of data provided what they needed for their decision-making:The Bank of Canada cuts its main rate to 2.50% after its last cut in March 2025. The change in policy reflects mounting evidence of economic weakness — Canadian GDP keeps contracting with the Q2 numbers and August saw a steep 60K job loss, underlining a still deteriorating labor market. Tariffs on key exports pressured growth leaving no choice for Macklem and the BoC to cut – this comes particularly as Macklem puts less emphasis on inflationary pressures.You can access his statement right here.Governor Tiff Macklem is actually speaking as I write this piece, and the speech is dovish/pessimistic on the Canadian Economy.Also check out our most recent piece on the data right here.The Federal Reserve is now expected to follow suit, with labor market cracks showing in the two most recent NFP releases – Despite US Inflation still elevated, Powell's August shift at the Jackson Hole speech indicated a switch in the FED's narrative (and added pressure from the Trump Administration). Furthermore, with the negative PPI print and a not-too-hot CPI, the green light is here for the FED to start cutting.With the sudden new balance of doves in the FED with Miran entering the meeting just before its start and Lisa Cook not being part of the meeting, an expected more dovish dot plot led to a huge selloff in the US Dollar, particularly as pre-meeting hedging accelerated. Read More:Access technical levels for major FX pairs ahead of the FOMC rate decisionFed (FOMC) Meeting Preview: 25 bps Cut Appears Baked In, Forward Guidance Is Key. Implications for the DXY, Dow Jones and S&P 500Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watch Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView North-American indices are still ravaging their way higher without leaving much space for bears. The ongoing rallies are particularly impressive when looking at other indices, particularly in Europe (Yellow) which struggled quite a lot in the past 1.5 week.The TSX left its throne for the Nasdaq which has been performing sensationally – We will see what was the effect of the most recent Bank of Canada rate cut for the TSX.There is an ongoing profit-taking move in Equities right ahead of the FOMC that is to be monitored!Dollar Index 8H Chart Dollar Index 8H Chart, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView As detailed in the chart published in our pre-FOMC FX technical level analysis, the Dollar Index freshly broke its August consolidation range and has stopped its free-fall just before its 2025 yearly lows (96.53 vs 96.23 July 1st lows).I also invite you to check out our most-recent DXY analysis to get further information on why the greenback moved so much these past few sessions.Levels to watch for the Dollar Index:Support Levels:2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Early 2022 Conslidation just below 96.0095.00 Key SupportResistance Levels:Range support now Pivot 97.50 (immediate resistance)98.00 higher timeframe PivotCurrent range Extreme resistance 98.50100.00 Main resistance zoneUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors, September 17, 2025 - Source: TradingView. As seen through the DXY chart, the US Dollar throughout the past two weeks but the beating accelerated throughout the beginning of this week particularly.The Australian Dollar, Kiwi and Swissie are the two winners of the USD downfall but it seems that there is an ongoing (small) mean-reversion move. 1.5% to 2% move ranges are still huge, particularly in a precedently slow FX Market.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, September 17, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The CAD also took a beating since the release of the Canadian Employment figures as seen in the past week Mid-Week report.Saved by an even lower US Dollar, the Loonie has started to form some type of intermediate bottom despite the dovishness from Macklem – The Canadian Dollar is still at its cycle lows against all European currencies and depreciating also against the JPY, however the latter is a bit more balanced as of late.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USDCAD 4H Chart, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Even with the dovish Bank of Canada, the CAD is holding decently strong in today's session – It seems that after the terrible employment data, the beating that the Loonie took priced this exact dovishness as can be seen in the current hesitant upward candle (gravestone doji).Maybe a Sell the fact is taking place for the USDCAD? We will see after the FOMC what happens – I would look at EURUSD or the DXY also to see if USD weakness continues.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance LevelsBoC highs 1.37721.38 Handle +/- 150 pips1.3850 to 1.3860 Main resistance1.3925 Aug 22 highsSupport LevelsKey longer-term pivot turned support 1.3750 (currently testing)1.3660 intermediate support1.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar This ongoing session is huge and still far from over!The BoC rate decision (09:45 ET) and press conference just concluded with the as expected rate cut to 2.50%, pretty bearish on the Canadian economy but the CAD is holding well (for now).In about 2.5 hours, the spotlight shifts to the Fed at 14:00 ET, with the rate decision, economic projections, and dot plot, capped by Powell’s press conference at 14:30 ET. So much will be on the line for this FED Meeting which will keep Markets occupied for the entire session and upcoming weeks.The rest of the week has less on its plate:On Thursday, focus moves back to the U.S. labor market with the usual weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey at 08:30 ET. Energy traders will also watch the EIA natural gas storage change at 10:30 ET.Friday closes with Canada’s Retail Sales (MoM, Jul), offering another read on consumer resilience or lack thereof. The Bank of Canada now expects a decent rebound towards the end of the year or should keep cutting rates. Watch the data closely (Retail sales actually was one of the better Canadian data and will have to hold).Safe Trades in preparation of the FOMC!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian dollar has posted small gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3762, up 0.17% on the day.BoC reduces rates to 2.5% There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada, which lowered its policy rate by a quarter-point to 2.5%, its lowest level since July 2022. This was the first time the Bank of Canada lowered rates since March, as it was forced to respond to signs of weakness in the economy and lower inflation.The rate statement said that a rate cut was justified, given that the economy had weakened and there was less upside risk to inflation. The US tariffs were expected to have a further dampening effect on economic activity. The statement made three references to the uncertainty of the economic outlook, which has required the BoC to act cautiously. At a follow-up press conference, Governor Macklem defended the rate cut due to a weaker labor market and less upside pressure on underlying inflation.What was missing from the rate statement and press conference was any forward guidance about future rate cuts, as the central bank doesn't want to be pushed into any corners with regard to future decisions. If inflation risks continue to fade, the BoC could deliver one or even two rate cuts before the end of the year.Federal Reserve poised to lower ratesThe Federal Reserve is virtually certain to lower rates at today's meeting, barring a monumental surprise. The expected rate cut would be the Fed's first since December 2024. With the rate decision virtually a given, investors will be looking for some clues as to whether the Fed is looking at further rates cuts before the end of the year.USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3752. Above, there is resistance at 1.3770There is support at 1.3721 and 1.3703 USDCAD 1-Day Chart, September 17, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It isn't typical to see as much FX volatility ahead of such a key FOMC.Currency Markets had been particularly slow throughout August after some post-NFP correction in the US Dollar – Despite having reasons to sell the USD further, particularly after Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole, end-summer slow trading largely contained volatility for fiat majors.To catch up with the volatility seen in Equities (which kept flying higher throughout that entire period), the US Dollar took a two-day downward train to start this week.The greenback saw close to 1% moves in Monday and yesterday's consecutive sessions against European currencies particularly – The widest range throughout the whole FX Market between the 12th of August to last Friday had been ~0.50%.As explained in our previous piece, except for a huge switch of fundamentals and/or a leak to an upcoming decision, it is rare that players accelerate such volatility ahead of the FOMC.The only reasoning would be strong and sudden hedging that corroborates with Miran entering the FOMC meeting right before its start.Anyways, let's have a look at technical levels for all FX major pairs as the market gets ready for the FOMC decision (and the Bank of Canada rate decision, releasing very soon – we will update the levels on a new piece). DXY 4H Chart, September 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Watch how the Dollar broke lower this Monday after resisting in a range throughout the entire past month – You can check out our most recent DXY analysis right here. Read More:Fed (FOMC) Meeting Preview: 25 bps Cut Appears Baked In, Forward Guidance Is Key. Implications for the DXY, Dow Jones and S&P 500Dow Jones (DJIA) Technical: Resting at key support ahead of FOMC, watch the US Treasury yield curve to trigger a bullish moveMarkets Today: UK Inflation Sticky, Gold Prices Retreat, FTSE 100 Hovers at 200-Day MA Ahead of FOMC DecisionAll FX Majors Charts with the key levels in play for the September FOMCNZDUSD 8H Chart and levels NZDUSD 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView Trading Levels for NZDUSD:Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 0.60Next Resistance 0.6060July 1st Highs 0.6120Support Levels0.5950 Main Pivot (acting as immediate support)0.59 (+/- 150 pips) Support0.58 Key SupportUSDJPY 8H Chart and levels (testing support) USDJPY 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView You can access an in-depth USDJPY analysis right here, released earlier today!Levels to watch for USDJPY:Resistance LevelsMid-range pivot 147.50 to 148.00May Range Extremes 148.70 to 149.50150.00 psychological resistance150.90 July highsSupport Levels146.50 range support (testing)145.00 psychological support142.35 low of the May range, main supportAUDUSD – A sharp rebound from the prior week selloff AUDUSD 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView You can access one of our most recent analysis for AUDUSD right here (chart is from Monday) – Watch the RSI which is starting to shape downwards.AUDUSD Trading Levels:Resistance LevelsUS CPI highs 0.6690 (2025 highs)Daily resistance 0.6670 to 0.67400.69 zone main resistance (+/- 150 pips)Support LevelsJuly Highs 0.66250 (+/- 100 pips) acting as key pivot and support0.6510 to 0.6530 support (confluence with 50-day MA)0.6420 August 22, 2025 lows (pre-Jackson Hole conference)Daily Support 0.63 to 0.64EURUSD 8H Chart and levels EURUSD 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView You can check out our Monday EURUSD Analysis which preceded a huge breakout to new highs – The fundamentals are still valid despite the new levels.Levels to watch for EURUSD:Resistance Levels:2025 highs 1.1880Main resistance turned pivot 1.18 to 1.1830 (yearly highs)1.20 psychological level and 2021 highsSupport Levels:1.1750 Intermediate Pivot (+/- 150 pips)1.1650 Key support1.16 Main support1.1470 Pivotal Support (bearish below this)The Swissie regains some strength – USDCHF USDCHF 4H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView Here is our latest in-depth analysis of the USDCHF (from yesterday) that was published as things were moving aggressively. Despite new lows being reached, the analysis is still valid!Levels to watch for USDCHF:Resistance Levels0.7950 Key pivotLong-term pivot 0.80 Zone (0.80 to 0.8010)Main resistance 0.8150 to 0.82 (last highs 0.8165)May 2025 highs 0.8475 Resistance ZoneSupport Levels0.78575 2025 lows Support0.77 to 0.7735 August 2011 lows0.76 Psychological levelThe Pound is back on track – GBPUSD GBPUSD 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView Levels to watch for GBPUSD:Resistance Levels2025 precise high 1.37882025 Highs resistance 1.3760 to 1.38Resistance 1.37 Zone (immediate resistance)Support LevelsResistance turned pivot at the 1.36 zoneSupport Zone 1.351.34 Support ZoneUSDCAD (Subject to change with ongoing Bank of Canada decision, Cut by 25 bps) USDCAD 8H Chart, September 17, 2025, Source: TradingView An update to the chart will be presented in an upcoming piece: Mid-Week NA Markets update with a detailed USDCAD analysis inside. Here is the BoC statement.Levels to watch for USDCAD:Resistance Levels1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips1.3850 to 1.3860 Main resistance1.3925 Aug 22 highsSupport LevelsKey longer-term pivot turned support 1.3750 (currently testing)1.3660 intermediate support1.3550 Main 2025 SupportSafe Trades as the FOMC approaches!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Riding on the coattails of dollar weakness and safe-haven demand for much of 2025, USD/CHF currently trades at monthly lows of 0.78698, down -1.10% in yesterday’s session aloneDespite renewed deflationary pressures, as seen in Monday's PPI report, safe-haven flows concerning U.S. policy, especially regarding trade, continue to benefit CHF pricingWhile the SNB has been expected to return to its usual playbook of currency interventions to weaken the franc, recent market realisations suggest that new leadership is less interested in ‘interventionist’ policy Currently on pace for its best yearly performance in over two decades, 2025 has been an interesting year for dollar-franc traders.While recent domestic GDP numbers and continuing deflationary pressures within the Swiss economy would typically bode poorly for the Swiss franc, the significant appreciation in value seen across much of this year can be summed up in three words: safe-haven flows.This goes double considering the recent change of tack from the Bank of Japan, with the unwinding of the now infamous carry trade diverting much of the demand for safe-haven currencies towards the franc over the yen.Despite an unremarkable economic performance, at least one outcome is a rapid appreciation in franc value, currently at #1 in year-to-date performance, with the euro coming in a close second place.Read more on the Swiss franc’s performance in 2025: Swiss franc leads majors as US session begins and reclaims 2025 crownUSD/CHF: Shifting SNB doctrine to remove USD/CHF downside limit With the Swiss franc trading at multi-year highs since June, many expected the Swiss National Bank to intervene, in a return to its typical playbook.Having relied heavily on currency intervention to control CHF pricing in years past, it would seem that new leadership, under Chair Martin Schlegel, is less interested in ‘interventionist policy’ than his predecessors.While the market has slowly but surely come to this realisation, having seen many opportunities this year where intervention would have likely happened in years past, it seems the SNB is taking a more hands-off approach.This has been further vindicated by the SNB's clear difference in buying habits, which have purchased fewer francs in the last twelve months than in previous years by an order of magnitude.While traders have been cautious about taking further CHF shorts, fearing a potential for intervention, it would seem that, once all pieced together, the SNB is more comfortable with a stronger franc than once thought.On this basis, considering the SNB is more likely to leave the CHF at the mercy of market forces in the short term, we can consider USD/CHF downside renewed, as seen in yesterday’s session.That said, traders would do well to remember that an apparent change to ‘non-interventionalist’ policy only remains true until it doesn't; so best to approach with at least some caution.USD/CHF: Technical Analysis 17/09/2025 USD/CHF, OANDA, TradingView,17/09/2025 Painting fresh 15-year lows in yesterday’s session, bearish momentum has been renewed owing to SNB developments. Breaking previous lows at 0.78713, the level has failed to offer any support to a falling USD/CHF priceYesterday’s price action also broke the previously held downwards channel, with 0.78500 being an obvious next key level target should downside continueIn line with Fibonacci theory, and assuming price will stage a short-term retracement, bears will likely consider 0.79018 as an entry point. Otherwise, and if price continues to break down, 0.78069 will be the next target Read more from MarketPulse: Fed (FOMC) Meeting Preview: 25 bps Cut Appears Baked In, Forward Guidance Is Key. Implications for the DXY, Dow Jones and S&P 500 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY Technical: Mild JPY strength detected ahead of US CPI”, published on 11 September 2025.In the last four weeks, the US dollar has weakened significantly against several major currencies, such as the euro, which rallied to a 4-year peak against the greenback on Tuesday, 16 September, but the bearish momentum of the US dollar has lagged against the Japanese yen (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: 1-month rolling performance of the US dollar against other major currencies as of 17 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has declined as expected within its range configuration and hit the minor range support of 146.40 (printed an intraday low of 146.20 on Wednesday, 17 September 2025, Asia session).Based on a one-month rolling performance basis as of 17 September 2025, the USD/JPY has dropped by -0.6%, less than the decline seen in the US Dollar Index at -1.1% over the same period at the time of writing.Interestingly, the momentum factor (technical analysis) is suggesting that the fortune of JPY is about to see a regime change, as the FOMC monetary policy decision outcome, the release of the latest Fed economic projections, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference loom today.Let’s break down the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch on the USD/JPY Fig. 2: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 17 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 17 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain a bearish bias in any bounces below the adjusted short-term pivotal resistance at 147.50 for the USD/JPY. A break below 145.95 (key range support) triggers the start of a potential medium-term bearish impulsive down move sequence for the next intermediate support to come in at 145.20 (also a Fibonacci extension) in the first step (see Fig. 3).Key elements The price actions of the USD/JPY have been oscillating within a medium-term “Ascending Wedge” range configuration since 22 April 2025 low. Right now, it is hovering just above the lower boundary of the “Ascending Wedge,” acting as a key medium-term support of 145.95 (see Fig. 2).The daily RSI momentum indicator has continued to inch downwards since the bearish breakdown of its former parallel ascending support on 22 August 2025, which suggests that medium-term bearish momentum remains intact, supporting a potential imminent bearish breakdown of the 145.95 support on the USD/JPY (see Fig. 2).Recent price actions of the USD/JPY have traded below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 20-day moving average acting as a key short-term resistance at 147.50.The hourly RSI momentum indicator did not flash out a bearish divergence signal before it exited from its oversold region yesterday, 16 September 2025, which suggests the USD/JPY may shape a minor corrective bounce in the next few hours rather than a bullish reversal.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 147.50 invalidates the bearish scenario for the USD/JPY and sees a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 147.95. Above it triggers a further bounce towards the minor range resistance at 148.75/148.95 (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound is unchanged on Wednesday, trading at 1.3645 in the European sesison.UK inflation remains entrenchedToday's inflation report was a dour reminder that UK inflation remains entrenched. CPI for August was unchanged at 3.8% y/y, matching the consensus and its highest level since January 2024. Airfares decreased but this was offset by food and petrol prices. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3%, up from 0.1% in July and matching the consensus.Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, eased to 3.6% from 3.8%. Monthly, core CPI ticked up to 0.3% from 0.2%. The inflation report comes just a day before the Bank of England announces its rate decision. Inflation is almost double the BoE's target of 2% and today's release likely means that the BoE will not reduce rates before 2026. The BoE cut rates by a quarter-point in August to 4.0% but will be hard pressed to follow up with additional cuts due unless inflation falls lower.The inflation data is bad news for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. Food inflation has risen for five consecutive months and that will put consumers in a sour mood. Reeves will deliver a budget in November and may have to raise taxes to balance the books, which is sure to be an unpopular move.Fed widely expected to lower ratesThe Federal Reserve is virtually certain to lower rates at today's meeting. That would be a significant move as the Fed last cut rates in December 2024. With the rate decision virtually a given, investors will be looking for some clues as to whether the Fed is looking at further rates cuts before the end of the year.GBP/USD Technical GBPUSD is testing support at 1.3643. This is followed by support at 1.3638 and 1.36341.3647 and 1.3652 are the next resistance lines GBPUSD 1-Day Chart, September 17, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Take a Breath After Record Rally Most Read: Fed (FOMC) Meeting Preview: 25 bps Cut Appears Baked In, Forward Guidance Is Key. Implications for the DXY, Dow Jones and S&P 500Asian stocks had a mixed day, moving between small gains and losses. This happened as investors waited for the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, with many expecting the central bank to cut interest rates for the first time this year.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index initially fell but then recovered to gain 0.1%. In Hong Kong, Chinese technology stocks soared to their highest level in four years, driven by growing excitement and demand related to artificial intelligence. On Wednesday, China's main stock indexes ended the day higher. The blue-chip CSI300 Index rose by 0.6%, and the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also did well, climbing 1.8%.Technology companies listed in Hong Kong saw a big jump of 4.2%, following a rally in their U.S. counterparts. Baidu's shares surged by almost 16% to their highest price since October 2023. Alibaba's shares also went up by 5%, reaching their strongest point since November 2022.However, stocks of companies related to consumer spending didn't react much, even after China announced new measures on Tuesday to boost spending on services.UK Inflation Remains Sticky, Holds at 3.8% Based on official figures, British inflation stayed at 3.8% in August, which is the highest rate among major developed economies. Source: ONS This high number suggests to investors that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates again this year. I however think we could still get another rate cut as wage growth continues to cool and service inflation data has seen some progress. Time will tell.Inflation for transportation slowed down, mostly because airfare prices dropped. Price increases were also lower for services, recreation and culture, and clothing and footwear, while housing and utilities prices stayed steady.However, the prices of motor fuels had the biggest impact, pushing inflation up. Prices for restaurants and hotels, food (reaching its highest level since January 2024), and furniture also increased at a faster rate.On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.3%, which was more than the previous month and matched predictions. On an annual basis, core inflation, which leaves out food and energy costs, slightly decreased from 3.8% to 3.6%.The news from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) did not cause much change in the value of the British pound or in British interest rate futures.European Open - European Shares Edge Higher On Wednesday, European stocks went up slightly, recovering from their losses in the previous session. This happened as investors were waiting for the US Federal Reserve's decision on monetary policy later in the day.The overall European STOXX 600 index rose by 0.1% to 551.56 points, after hitting a one-week low on Tuesday. Technology stocks led the gains, with shares of SAP and Prosus both increasing by about 2%.Later, investors around the world will focus on the results of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting. Markets are largely expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent to address the weakening US job market. However, investors will be paying especially close attention to what Chairman Jerome Powell says about the future policy plans.In other company news, PostNL's shares rose by 7.5% after the company announced a new strategy, including dividing its Parcels business into two new segments, E-commerce and Platforms, starting in January 2026. Novo Nordisk's shares also increased by 1.8% after the brokerage firm Berenberg upgraded its rating on the Danish drugmaker from "Hold" to "Buy."On the FX front, The euro dropped by 0.25% to 1.1838, after reaching a four-year high of 1.18785 on Tuesday.The British pound fell by 0.13% to 1.3630, which is still close to its highest point in two and a half months, following British inflation data that met expectations. The U.S. dollar index, which compares the dollar to six other major currencies, was up 0.20% at 96.84, after hitting its lowest level since early July on Tuesday.The index is down almost 11% this year, and investors are preparing for more losses after a recent pause. The Swiss franc eased by 0.22% to 0.7875 per US dollar, remaining near the decade-high it reached in the previous session. The Australian dollar hit an 11-month high and was last at 0.6674.The Japanese yen strengthened to 146.22 per dollar, its strongest in a month. This happened ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday, where the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. The yen was last down 0.10% at 146.63.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices went down slightly on Wednesday, after rising by more than 1% the day before. The ongoing political tensions around the world prevented prices from falling too far. Traders are also keeping a close eye on the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates later in the day.Brent crude futures dropped by 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.14 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $64.20 per barrel.For more information on Oil, please read WTI Oil Rallies 1% After Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Oil Facilities, Russia Sanction Calls GrowGold prices fell slightly on Wednesday. This was because the US dollar saw a small increase, and investors decided to sell their gold to secure the profits they made after gold reached a record high on Tuesday.Spot gold fell by 0.5% to $3,671.61 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $3,702.95 the day before. US gold futures for December also dropped by 0.4% to $3,709.For more information on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Soars to Breach $3700/oz. FOMC Meeting Next, Will the Rally Continue?Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session has had a busy morning thus far.Markets attention will now turn to the US session where we will also get the Bank of Canada interest rate decision before the highly anticipated Federal Reserve decision and Fed Chair Powell speech. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE has retreated and broken the bullish structure on the four-hour chart.The four-hour candle close below the swing low at 9240 has seen a change in structure, which hints at further downside.The index is now trading at the bottom end of the range which it broke earlier this week.There is a possibility of a pullback though before the next leg low, with the swing high at 9285 now holding the key.Before that though, resistance is being provided by the 100-day MA at 9236 and 9262 before that 9285 handle comes into focus.Looking at support on the downside, immediate support rests at the 200-day MA at 9203 before the 9180 handle comes into focus.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 17. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Soars to Breach $3700/oz. FOMC Meeting Next, Will the Rally Continue?The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is a big deal for the US economy and financial markets as a whole.The latest economic data suggests the Fed should start lowering interest rates. However, the market already expects a rate cut and based on market moves it appears that it has largely been priced in.Because of this, the Fed's announcement about their future plans will likely be more important than their actual decision at this meeting. That is likely to be what will really stoke volatility barring a surprise decision by the Fed. Source: CME FedWatch Tool The Macroeconomic Case for a Rate Cut The main concern is the weakening job market. While the economy grew by 3.3% in the second quarter, this was mostly due to a big change in trade, which hid the fact that consumer spending was weak. People were spending less because they were worried about tariffs, a cooling job market, and unstable wealth.This was confirmed by the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which showed little to no economic activity and declining consumer spending across the country. It also reported that most districts were not hiring and that the job market was slowing. Last Friday's jobs report also showed a small increase in jobs, and unemployment went up. Revisions to job numbers from the past year showed the economy created less than half the jobs that were previously reported.Even though inflation is still above the target, the risk to the job market now seems more urgent to the Fed. They'll likely start to move toward a less restrictive policy.Three factors that drove inflation up in 2022—oil prices, housing rents, and wages—are now gone, and are even helping to lower inflation. A cooling economy with rising unemployment will also help bring inflation back down to 2% by the end of 2026.The Fed will probably lower its forecasts for economic growth and inflation while raising its unemployment projections. We expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25% at their September 17 meeting, with more cuts to follow in October, December, January, and March. It's possible the Fed could start with a larger cut of 0.50%, but a 0.25% cut is more likely because most members are still cautious about the impact of tariffs on inflation.The Fed's Challenge: Reining in Dovish Expectations The Federal Reserve is in a tough spot. Even with evidence pointing to a need for lower interest rates, the market has already bet on a lot of rapid rate cuts. This creates a significant communication challenge for the Fed. They have to manage market expectations very carefully.The "Dovish" SurpriseOne possibility is that the Fed tries to meet or even beat the market's high expectations. Traders are already anticipating a lot of cuts by the end of 2026. For the Fed's announcement to truly be a positive surprise for the market, they would need to signal an even faster pace of rate cuts than what is already expected. If they simply use their normal cautious language, even when announcing a cut, the market might see it as a disappointment. The real risk here isn't a wrong policy decision, but a gap between what the Fed says and what the market wants to hear.The "Powell Pushback"A different view is that Fed Chair Powell will intentionally try to lower market expectations. This perspective suggests that he will push back against the idea of quick rate cuts in October and December. Instead, he would likely emphasize that the Fed will continue to be guided by incoming economic data, keeping their options open.This cautious approach is about protecting the Fed's credibility. Having been criticized for underestimating inflation in the past, they don't want to cut rates too soon only to have to reverse course if inflation spikes again. By remaining patient and focusing on data, Powell would be protecting the Fed's reputation and ensuring they can react to the economy as it unfolds, rather than being forced into a schedule set by the marketProbable Scenarios and Forward Outlook Source: Google Gemini Impact Analysis on US Indices and Broader Markets The market's reaction to the FOMC meeting will translate the two primary scenarios into tangible consequences for US indices and other asset classes.The reaction to a dovish signal would likely be a boon for equities. The S&P 500 would likely rally, driven by the anticipation of lower borrowing costs and a broader "risk-on" sentiment. The Nasdaq 100, composed of technology and growth stocks, would likely outperform due to its higher sensitivity to changes in interest rates.Conversely, a hawkish signal would be a source of disappointment for "doves," potentially triggering a pullback in US indices as traders unwind their aggressive rate-cut bets. Tech and growth stocks would be particularly vulnerable. The following table summarizes the potential impact on key US indices and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) under the two scenarios. Source: Google Gemini Since the market is already highly dovish, the disappointment of a cautious Fed is significant. A potential sell-off might be sharp, but it could also be short-lived if the underlying macroeconomic data remains fundamentally sound. A cautious hold today might simply be a delay of an inevitable cut tomorrow. This understanding is critical for long-term investors aiming to distinguish between temporary market volatility and a fundamental shift in economic trajectory.Tomorrow's meeting promises fireworks regardless of the decision. Volatility will definitely rear its head and the decision could have wider implications for global markets and risk sentiment.For more on tomorrow's meeting and what to look out for, read Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchTrade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 16Trump shook markets today after signing Miran’s papers for him to join the Federal Reserve committee, just hours before the start of the central bank’s 2-day meeting. The Fed's independence is in question here with the move from Donald Trump to appoint his Economic Adviser at the FED just as the meeting commences. The move sent the US Dollar tumbling close to its 2025 lows (96.55 today vs. 96.37 on July 1st), igniting a new wave of selling. Dollar bears came back in force, with the Swiss franc standing out as the preferred hedge against the greenback’s weakness ahead of tomorrow’s session.This breakdown was actually highlighted throughout yesterday's DXY analysis but accelerated as markets received the Miran news.USDCHF is finishing the session down about 1% but was down about 1.20% at its lows. Furthermore, with the SNB's main rate at the border of 0%, in case a jumbo 50 bps cut takes place, the rate differential would decrease and rendering the CHF as an optimal hedge. This play is more fundamental for institutional participants who have billions of dollars that will be affected by tomorrow's decision.Nonetheless, the current market pricing is largely skewed towards a 25 bps. The curve steepened aggressively along the move in the US Dollar, and as can be seen on several of our FX articles, the US Dollar hit now lows on the year against the Euro and the CHF.On other subjects, Trump also announced fresh agreements with China on TikTok which will preview a call between the US President and China's Xi. Read More:Examining US bonds and the yield curve before the FOMC decisionSwiss franc leads majors as US session begins and reclaims 2025 crownGuide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Softs and energy commodities rallied, boosted again by the US Dollar slump. Concerning only energy commodities, they are getting targeted from bulls due to Russia's menaces to slow down production amid continued (and successful) Ukrainian attacks.Gold and metals had quite a mixed session with the bullion hitting the $3,700 landmark right before retracting in a hesitant afternoon. Traders will get more clarity after the Powell speech.For the rest, cryptos were mixed with BTC up small, some altcoins like OP, BNB and Polkadot leading the charge, while ETH retraced a bit.Equities also offered quite a weird session, with all of them trading to their all-time highs during the futures-only session (pre-open) before retracting as they hit Fibonacci-targets. This is typical of a low volume session but tomorrow should be quite different (and volatile).A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 16 – Source: OANDA Labs As mentioned in the introduction, FX volatility was insane in today's session, particularly for a pre-FOMC day.Traders rushed to hedge their bets with the EUR and CHF which accelerated the move in the Dollar Index which had started in yesterday's session.Tomorrow will be very interesting, particularly in the EURUSD and USDCHF pairs. A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The upcoming 24 hours in trading should offer one of the most intense session in a long while.The evening session will focus on the New Zealand Consumer Survey and the Japanese trade data for August but these will be relatively low-tier data compared to what's coming up tomorrow:The 17th of September session starts at 2:00 A.M. ET with the UK CPI that had previously surprised to the upside, notably pushing back cuts for the BoE (with none planned ahead of Thursday's rate decision). Let's see if tomorrow changes the theme.ECB's Lagarde will then continue her series of speeches at 3:30 A.M. at an annual ECB conference in Frankfurt which will also pre-empt the 5:00 A.M. CPI for the Eurozone.The NA session will then commence with Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30 A.M., followed by the Bank of Canada rate decision at 9:45 (a 25 bps cut is planned, but not fully priced) and will attract interest to its 10:30 press conference held by BoC Governor Macklem.The real session will start at 14:00 E.T. with the FOMC rate decision which has been anticipated for too long now. Keep an eye on the SEP's (discover what to focus on here) and most importantly, Jerome Powell's speech at 14:30. Safe Trades and successful trading ahead of the FOMC!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI prices have been erratic, even without a clear direction in the past few weeks.WTI Oil has been moving sideways, gradually decreasing, since early July.Forming an initial range from $65 to $70, then taking steps towards lower levels, August led another consolidation between $62 to $66.With Russia announcing it is close to reduce its oil output due to the heavy (and successful) drone attacks, prices have began an impulsive move higher.Moving towards the final months of the year, headlines still revolve around higher OPEC+ output but also a continuing Ukraine-Russia war (Trump said a few lines on this earlier), which notably shook up yearly flows throughout Ukraine’s efficacious attacks on Black gold, sold at a huge discount to sponsor the Russian aggression.At one point, Russian refinery production was reduced by 1/5, as mentioned in a recent Reuters piece.Despite this heavy supply, supplemental tariffs on russian oil buyers have formed consequent reversals at the recently reached quarterly lows.Friday seemed to provide an initial spike with Trump’s latest tariff headlines (as highlighted in our previous Oil piece) but quickly followed up with a selloff going into the weekend.This week, however, commodities are seeing a huge boost with LME Copper prices hitting new highs, Silver and Gold rallying yet again, and energy commodities seeing a heavy boost. The common denominator, the US Dollar, is getting ravaged, which helps this ongoing rally.Trump's Chief Economist Miran has been signed to join the FED as an intermediate member, right before the FOMC meeting began, which has contributed to further weakness in the USD (= FED Independence challenged), giving a further boost to US Oil prices.Anyway, let's have a close look at Oil charts and levels to see how the current flows are changing the previous narrative. Has a bottom been found for petrol? Read More:Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchSwiss franc leads majors as US session begins and reclaims 2025 crownGold (XAU/USD) Soars to Breach $3700/oz. FOMC Meeting Next, Will the Rally Continue?US Oil 1H Chart US Oil 1H Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The double bottom mentioned in Friday's analysis has indeed come into play despite the breakout not gaining direct traction (prices first retraced to the lows of the $63 support).However, with the current impulsive move breaking the $63.84 range-high resistance, Oil prices don't have much to stop them before the $65.5 to $66 Pivot region (Blue square).The 1H RSI is not in overbought territory just yet and prices are forming an imminent tight bull channel (bull candles overlapping each other, valid until one bear candle closes below the previous).The current pre-FOMC volatility is rare, so expect tomorrow to be even more volatile, particularly depending on what Jerome Powell says.Let's take a small step back to spot where we are on the bigger picture.WTI Oil 8H Chart After forming a double bottom at the lows of its intraday descending channel, Oil is heading higher on strong bull candles.The two 8H bullish candles formed after yesterday's 1% up-move have helped to breach the 50-period Moving Average.With RSI momentum also going in positive territory, the only hurdle for sellers will be the mid-level of the channel. Such momentum will find it difficult to hold such a line (which tends to act more on indecisive moves).Follow the strong flows from today's session and look at the US Dollar (EURUSD or DXY are two good guides to today's action)Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsHigher timeframe pivot $65 to $66200-period MA 66.42July mid-range $67 resistanceSupport Levels50-period MA $64May range Support $63 to $64 (currently testing)Current consolidation lows $61.84 to $62$60.5 Low of May Range Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices soar to tap $3700/oz as Fed rate cut bets ramp up. The precious metal continues to benefit from the uncertainty around Fed policy moving forward beyond the September 17 meeting.The expectations for a rate cut and a dovish Fed moving forward has led to US Dollar weakness and falling US Treasury yields which have aided Gold's rise. The US dollar is getting weaker, with its value falling against other major currencies.This is because financial markets are now pricing in around 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% and expect a more dovish outlook moving forward.At the same time, returns on US government bonds are also staying low. This makes assets like gold, which don't pay interest, more attractive to investors because they aren't giving up much in potential earnings by not holding bonds insteadThe question for market participants right now is how much further can the gold rally go?Fed Policy Holds the Key On Wednesday, the much anticipated Federal Reserve decision will be the main focus for financial markets. It does appear as though a 25bps rate cut has largely been priced in and thus we have seen many analysts talk about the potential of a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ reaction to the rate decision.With that in mind, markets may be more focused on the dot plot and how the Fed sees the rate outlook moving forward. The calls by the Trump administration as well as a weakening labor market has seen markets price in more aggressive rate cuts over the next 12 months.A dovish Fed outlook could fuel the Gold rally and push the precious metal toward the $3800/oz handle. A more hawkish outlook or no changes to the dot plot could see the Gold prices finally drop and pullback toward the $3600/oz handle.A lot rests on the Fed decision and outlook tomorrow. For more on this read Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchFed Independence Concerns Linger The Fed meeting is holding its monetary policy meeting at a difficult time. US President Donald Trump is actively trying to influence their decisions, and there are legal challenges against the Fed's leadership which has led to concerns around Fed independence which is also aiding the Gold rally.Leading up to the meeting, President Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell on social media to make a bigger interest rate cut than what is expected. Trump believes that a more significant cut is overdue and would greatly help the housing market.In a related development, a U.S. appeals court stopped an attempt by President Trump to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her position, ruling that his reasons were not legally sufficient. This means Lisa Cook is expected to participate in Wednesday's important vote.Additionally, Stephen Miran, a key economic advisor to President Trump, was narrowly confirmed by the Senate to join the Federal Reserve Board. Analysts believe that Miran might push for a larger interest rate cut than what most people expect, which keeps the question about how much political influence might affect the Fed's decisions.Other Factors Supporting Gold Prices Gold is receiving an extra boost from heightened global tensions, which are pushing investors toward safe-haven assets.This increase in geopolitical risk is primarily driven by two major developments: an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as Israel launched a significant ground offensive in Gaza City on Tuesday, and an intensification of drone and missile strikes by Ukraine on Russian refineries, which is disrupting Russia's energy infrastructure.Economic Calendar For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, Gold broke out of the bull flag pattern on a four-hour timeframe before rallying to its potential target around the $3700/oz handle.We are seeing a pullback since then with the latest four hour candle closing as a hanging man, which hints at further downside.Given the rally this week, we could see a bit of a pullback as some market participants may look to take profit ahead of the FOMC meeting.The period-14 RSI is also in overbought territory. A break back below the 70 level on the RSI usually signals a shift in momentum and could lead to a short-term push lower.However, we have seen similar attempts at a pullback since the backend of last week and each time buyers returned with conviction to print fresh highs.Thus there is a possibility that this could continue heading into the US Fed rate decision.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, September 16, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European currencies are having a fantastic year, with the CHF, the Euro, and GBP achieving their best performance since the early 2000s.With US President Trump doing everything he can to devalue the US dollar (tariffs, beefs with other countries, menacing the Fed's Independence, and Jerome Powell), and on the other side of the Atlantic, EU countries allying to boost productivity in the years to come, the conditions for such outperformance are optimal.Regarding basic economics, one thing to watch for Europe and Switzerland could be a too-strong currency, which would impair exports in an already-cooling economy (and crippled with 39% tariffs with the US).In fact, Switzerland has been in deflation since May 2025. While its economy continues to grow slowly, such economic activity is not expected to hold up much given the recent SNB dovishness.UPDATE: New yearly lows recently got reached in a bearish acceleration – The US Dollar is really not liking Miran joining the FOMC committee right before the beginning of the Meeting!In the current state of geopolitics, participants looking for safety have had enough of a yen that loses too much in Carry due to historically low rates and have come back to the Swissie in search of value amid a less-competitive dollar. 2025 Currency Performance, September 16, 2025 – Source: InvestingLive.com This nice graph offered by InvestingLive depicts how strong the geographic trends (mentioned through many of our previous pieces) guide Forex performance.European currencies are leading with the new shift in narrative, followed by APAC (JPY, NZD and AUD) and finally North-American currencies which have struggled quite a lot.Tomorrow should be interesting as traders really are pre-selling the US Dollar in what seems to be rushed-hedges for a dovish FOMC.Any hawkishness or even a more neutral than dovish tone, and/or mentioning of tariff uncertainty should lead to consequent mean-reversion for the USD.More mentions towards labor market weakness and one time tariff price hikes would be confirming the USD down-move.Up about 0.80% as we speak, let's have a look at USDCHF multi-timeframe charts to gain our edge on potential reversal or continuation levels for the pair. Read More:Guide to the FOMC statement and September SEP: Key takeaways and what to watchBreaking News: US August Retail Sales at 5.0% Y/Y vs 3.2% expected, beats consensusUSDCHF multi-timeframe analysis ahead of the FOMCUSDCHF Daily chart USDCHF Daily Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite a strong rebound in the USD in July followed by a monthly consolidation in August, the selling in CHFUSD has started to accelerate since the September NFP release, breaching 0.80 psychological level.The first time the level was breached in 2025 was in mid-June, when Powell testified. Early July consequently saw a huge reversal higher in the pair.The breakdown has happened on a few strong bear bars and bears should soon face the 2025 0.7875 Lows support, with prices entering that region.Daily RSI still has place for movement and is not showing signs of upward tilt – However, one cannot forget that things may change in a flash in tomorrow's FOMC announcement.USDCHF 4H Chart USDCHF 4H Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The ongoing price action is a solid tight bear channel, with traders rushing to exit and hedge their positions before tomorrow's huge trading Session.Reactions will be interesting as this morning saw another rejection of the 50-period MA at the conjunction of the 2025 downward trendline, which led a huge descent in prices.USDCHF is now trading around the middle of a freshly formed channel (with the 2025 downtrend) and with oversold RSI conditions, it will be interesting to spot what traders look to do looking forward.Trading Levels for USDCHFDaily Resistance Levels0.7970 MA 500.80 psychological levelLong-term pivot 0.80 Zone (0.80 to 0.81)Main resistance 0.8150 to 0.82 (last highs 0.8165)May 2025 highs 0.8475 Resistance ZoneDaily Support Levels0.7890 current daily lows and counting (and middle of downward channel)0.7840 to 0.7875 2025 lows0.77 to 0.7735 August 2011 lowsUSDCHF 1H Chart USDCHF 1H Chart, September 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView A measured move would place the pair to new lows in 2025 as the imminent selling accelerates after the Retail Sales data.On the other hand, watch for the way oversold levels – The tight bull channel is expected to hold as long as no bull candle closes above the previous one, so sellers are tightly in control for now.Watch price action in any close above the 0.7950 short-term pivot zone and any potential acceleration above 0.80. If the current trend continues, look at the 2011 support levels.Safe Trades and successful trading ahead of the FOMC!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Retail Sales (YoY) (August): +5.0% vs +3.2% expected, above consensus by +1.8%US Retail Sales (MoM) (August): +0.6% vs +0.2% expected, above consensus by +0.4%US Retail Sales Control Group (MoM) (August): +0.7% vs +0.4% expected, above consensus by +0.3%US Retail Sales ex. Gas/Autos (MoM) (August): +0.7% vs -0.1% expected, above consensus by +0.8%US Retail Sales ex. Autos (MoM) (August): +0.7% vs +0.4% expected, above consensus by +0.3%US Retail Sales Report (August 2025): Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services August 2025, U.S. Census Bereau "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.0 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent (±0.2 percent).""Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from July 2025, and up 4.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 10.1 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 6.5 percent (±1.8 percent) from August 2024." Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services August 2025, U.S. Census Bereau Breaking: US Retail Sales for August came in at +5.0% YoY, significantly beating the consensus of 3.2% by +1.8%. Monthly retail sales also beat expectations, at +0.6% vs +0.2% expected.Nonstore retailers and food & drinking venues boast the largest yearly gains, up +10.1% and +6.5% respectively.Key takeaway: Despite concerns about how tariffs could affect employment and consumer pricing, retail sales rose well above expectations in August. For now, the average US consumer seems undeterred by economic uncertainty, at least in regard to their spending habits. Read more on markets today: Markets Today: Gold Hits Fresh-Highs, UK Wage Growth Slows, US Dollar Slips, FTSE 100 Hovers at Support Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound has posted gains for a second straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3636, up 0.28% on the day.UK employment declines, wages dip The UK employment report didn't shine but there were no nasty surprises and investors reacted with a thumbs-up for the British pound.The number of employees on payrolls fell by eight thousand in August, marking a seventh consecutive decline. Still, this figure was less than expected, suggesting that perhaps the worst is over for the labor market, which softened after the government enacted higher payroll taxes and a hike in the minimum wage. Today's employment report has increased market expectations that the Bank of England will maintain rates at 4.0% at Thursday's meeting. As long as the labor market remains stable, the central bank is unlikely to lower rates, as inflation has been moving higher.The BoE has projected that inflation will peak at 4%, double its target. If inflation remains at such high levels, it's doubtful that the BoE will lower rates before 2026. The August inflation report, which will be released on Wednesday, is expected to show that headline CPI was unchanged at 3.8% y/y and core CPI eased to 3.6% from 3.8%.GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3629. Above, there is resistance at 1.36621.3588 and 1.3555 are providing support GBPUSD Chart 1-Day, September 16, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.