It's looking rough out there as geopolitical tensions now spill over to economic risks. As Trump raises the stakes on Greenland, he is threatening the EU with fresh 10% tariffs that will be enacted on 1 February. And if things keep this way, he will raise them further to 25% starting 1 June. That is unless "a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland".In turn, the EU is preparing to take their previously shelved tariffs retaliation package worth €93 billion and use that to respond to Trump. Yup, tariffs war is back with a bang. ?As mentioned earlier here, Goldman Sachs estimates that the tariffs will at least apply a hit on exports of around 1% to 1.5% of euro area GDP. Most analysts are seeing it as a hit between 0.4% to 1.8% of the economy. So, just keep that number floating for a bit when taking into consideration the impact of tariffs on market sentiment.For now, equities are not liking any of it with European stock futures pointing lower across the board:Eurostoxx -1.6%Germany DAX -1.3%France CAC 40 -2.0%UK FTSE -0.5%Similarly, US futures are also down as risk sentiment in general takes a knock:S&P 500 futures -0.9%Nasdaq futures -1.2%Dow futures -0.8%As a reminder though, US markets will be closed today. So, that will spare Wall Street of any "official" pain in the meantime. The thing with geopolitical tensions is that they tend to be faded rather quickly in due time. But when it does spill over to economic conflict, that's a tougher one to filter out.We'll now have to see how serious Trump is about sticking to his tariff guns and how far is he willing to use this threat to push the Greenland agenda. And on the EU side of things, it's about how willing are they to fight tit-for-tat against the US administration on tariffs if things really do progress down this road. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.There are some large ones but nothing that should be too impactful, given how the state of play is developing in the major currencies space.The Japanese yen remains in focus amid intervention risks as traders continue to keep the pressure on the currency. Fiscal risks remain the main issue with Japan prime minister Takaichi set to officially call for a snap election in her announcement later today. She is scheduled to make an appearance at 0900 GMT and dissolve the lower house of parliament at the ordinary Diet session later this week.But with Trump stirring up geopolitical tensions in Greenland, the dollar is also under scrutiny to start the week. The greenback was up a little in the early stages but quickly settled lower. The erratic nature of the US administration continues to pile on the currency debasement theme with precious metals surging higher instead.For now, the dollar is sitting a little lower ahead of European trading with not much to really shout about in relation to the expiries above.As a reminder as well, it is a US market holiday and long weekend today. As such, there isn't much appetite on the expiries board with traders keeping more focus on the ones that will run off tomorrow and later in the week.Taking that into consideration, it might be a bit of a quieter one to start the week although the negative risk mood might well translate to some extension flows in the major currencies space later on. For now though, the Swiss franc is already taking charge with USD/CHF down 0.5% to 0.7987 and EUR/CHF down 0.3% to 0.9286 on the day.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Introduction: What Is a Broker?A broker is a person or company that helps traders and investors connect with financial markets. They make it possible for you to buy and sell things like shares, currencies, commodities, or other financial products. Brokers act as intermediaries, helping individual traders access large financial markets and liquidity providers.Today, most brokers offer:Trading platforms: Special software like MetaTrader 4 (MT4) or MetaTrader 5 (MT5) that you can use to trade.Access to markets: This includes currencies, equity indices, gold, and shares.Customer support: Help for managing your account and transactions.Research and tools: Information and tools to help you analyze the market and make decisions.Some brokers also allow you to use leverage, which means you can control larger trades with a smaller amount of money. However, leverage can increase both your potential profits and your risks.Example: If you want to buy the currency pair EUR/USD, you can’t go straight to the bank market. Instead, your financial intermediary will handle the trade for you, either by matching your order with another client (market maker) or sending it to liquidity providers (ECN/STP model).Brokers are very important for individual investors. But if you choose the wrong broker, especially one that isn’t regulated, you might face unfair practices or even lose your money.How Do Brokers Work?Brokers help you access financial markets that you can’t reach on your own. They act as intermediaries by executing buying and selling orders and offering platforms to operate on. Here’s how they operate:Trade Execution: When you place a buy or sell order on a trading platform, your broker either:Sends your order to a liquidity provider or exchange (ECN/STP model).Fills your order within their own system (market maker model).Pricing and Spreads: Brokers provide bid and ask prices. The difference between these prices is called the spread, which is part of your trading cost. Some brokers may also charge extra commissions.Leverage and Margin: Many brokers let you use leverage, which allows you to control larger trades with less of your own money. This can increase your potential profits but also your risks.Platforms and Tools: Most brokers provide trading platforms like MT4 or MT5 where you can analyze charts, place trades, and manage your accounts.Broker Revenue: Brokers make money in different ways:Spreads: The difference between the buying and selling prices.Commissions: A fixed fee per trade, which is common with ECN accounts.Additional Fees: Such as fees for overnight positions, inactivity, or withdrawals.Example: If you buy 1 lot of EUR/USD, your broker might charge a spread of 1 pip (which is about $10). For an ECN account, you might pay a raw spread of 0.1 pips plus a $7 commission.Tip for beginners: Always compare all trading costs, including spreads, commissions, and any additional fees, before choosing a broker.Types of BrokersBrokers operate differently. Understanding the types can help you find one that fits your trading style:Market Maker Brokers:How they work: They create their own market and act as the other side of your trade.Pros: They usually have fixed spreads and simpler pricing.Cons: There can be a conflict of interest since the broker profits when clients lose.ECN (Electronic Communication Network) Brokers:How they work: They connect you directly to liquidity providers like banks and funds.Pros: They offer very tight spreads and faster trade execution.Cons: They charge commissions, and spreads can widen during volatile times.STP (Straight Through Processing) Brokers:How they work: They send your orders directly to liquidity providers without any manual handling.Pros: They provide fair execution and variable spreads.Cons: Costs can vary based on market liquidity.Discount Brokers:How they work: They offer basic services with low fees but little support or research.Pros: They are cost-effective for self-directed traders.Cons: They offer limited educational resources and customer support.Full-Service Brokers:How they work: They provide personalized advice, research, and portfolio management along with trade execution.Pros: They offer comprehensive services for long-term investors.Cons: They tend to have higher fees compared to online brokers.Example: A beginner might find a market maker broker easier to use, while an experienced trader might prefer an ECN broker for better pricing and direct market access.Why Do Traders Need Brokers?Brokers are essential because they provide retail traders and investors access to markets that would otherwise be unavailable. Here’s why they are important:Market Access: Individuals cannot trade directly with large exchanges or interbank markets. Brokers connect you to these markets so you can buy and sell assets like currencies, stocks, and commodities.Trading Platforms: Brokers provide the software you need to analyze the market, execute transactions, and manage your positions in real time.Leverage and Margin: Brokers allow you to use leverage, which means you can control larger trades than what your own funds would allow. This can make market activity more flexible, but it also increases risks.Liquidity and Execution: Brokers have networks of liquidity providers that help ensure your orders are executed quickly and often at competitive prices.Risk Management Tools: Most brokers provide tools like stop-loss and take-profit orders to help you manage risk.Education and Support: Many brokers provide training, tutorials, webinars, and customer support to help beginners learn about investing.Example: Without a broker, a retail trader wouldn’t be able to buy or sell EUR/USD, gold, or the S&P 500 index. A broker makes that possible and provides the necessary tools for buying and selling safely and efficiently.Key Features of a Good BrokerChoosing the right broker is one of the most important decisions you will make as a trader. A reliable broker should offer:Regulation and Safety: The broker should be licensed by a well-known regulatory body (like FCA, ASIC, or CySEC) to ensure they follow rules and protect your funds.Transparent Pricing: You should have clear information about spreads, commissions, and fees. There should be no hidden charges.Trading Platforms: Access to trusted platforms like MT4 or MT5, which have good charting tools and execute trades smoothly.Competitive Spreads and Fees: Low transaction costs are important, especially if you engage in frequent market activity. Look for brokers with tight spreads and fair commissions.Reliable Execution: Fast order execution with minimal slippage is essential, supported by strong liquidity providers.Risk Management Tools: Features like stop-loss, take-profit, and negative balance protection are important for safeguarding your capital.Education and Research: Good brokers provide tutorials, webinars, market news, and analysis to help you improve your skills.Customer Support: Responsive support in multiple languages, available through live chat, phone, or email.Example: A good broker will let you open a demo account to try their platform and trading conditions before you put in real money.Risks of Choosing the Wrong BrokerChoosing an unregulated broker can expose you to significant risks. Here are the main dangers:Loss of Funds: Unregulated brokers might mix your deposits with their own money or disappear with your funds.Withdrawal Problems: Some dishonest brokers may delay or block your withdrawals, making it hard for you to access your profits.Price Manipulation: Untrustworthy brokers might widen spreads, create false slippage, or manipulate quotes to trigger your stop-loss orders unfairly.Hidden Fees: Brokers that lack transparency may charge high commissions, overnight fees, or other costs that aren’t clearly explained.Misleading Promotions: Promises of guaranteed profits or unrealistic leverage are often signs of unreliable brokers.No Legal Recourse: Without regulation, you have no protection if there are disputes or fraud.Example: If a trader deposits $1,000 with an unregulated offshore broker, and after making a profit the broker refuses to let them withdraw their money, the trader may lose their funds because there is no regulatory authority to help.Tip for beginners: Always verify a broker’s license with the official regulator before opening an account.How to Choose a Trustworthy Broker – Step by StepChoosing a trustworthy broker can be simple if you follow these steps:Step 1 – Check Regulation: Look for licenses from top-tier regulators (like FCA, ASIC, or CySEC). Verify the license number on the regulator’s official website.Step 2 – Compare Trading Costs: Check the spreads and commissions for major instruments like EUR/USD or gold to understand the costs associated with transactions. Consider both spread-only accounts and those with raw spreads plus commissions.Step 3 – Test the Trading Platform: Open a demo account to test order execution speed, charting tools, and the platform's reliability. Make sure it supports your trading strategy.Step 4 – Review Risk Management Features: Ensure the broker offers stop-loss and take-profit features, along with negative balance protection.Step 5 – Evaluate Customer Support: Reach out to customer support through live chat or email with questions. Reliable brokers should respond quickly and clearly.Step 6 – Check Deposit and Withdrawal Policies: Look for fast and clear payment options. Avoid brokers with high withdrawal fees or unexplained delays.Step 7 – Read Independent Reviews: Research on trusted financial websites and forums. Be cautious of overly positive reviews that seem promotional.Beginner Tip: Start with a small deposit to test the broker's execution and withdrawal process before committing larger amounts for market engagement.Quick Glossary of Broker TermsBroker: A financial intermediary that connects traders and investors to markets.Market Maker: A broker that sets its own buy and sell prices and often takes the opposite side of client trades.ECN (Electronic Communication Network): A broker model that connects traders directly to liquidity providers for transparent pricing.STP (Straight Through Processing): A broker that sends orders directly to liquidity providers without manual intervention.Spread: The difference between the buy (ask) and sell (bid) price — a key trading cost.Commission: A fee charged per trade, common with ECN accounts.Leverage: Borrowed money that allows traders to control larger positions with less of their own funds.Margin: The amount of money needed to open a leveraged position.Liquidity Provider: A bank or institution that provides buy/sell quotes to brokers.Negative Balance Protection: A broker feature that prevents traders from losing more money than they deposited.Execution Speed: How quickly a broker processes and fills orders.Broker Examples in PracticeTo better understand how brokers work, let’s look at some scenarios:Example 1: Market Maker BrokerSetup: A trader wants to buy EUR/USD.Action: The broker quotes a price of 1.1000 to sell and 1.1002 to buy. The trader buys at 1.1002.Outcome: The broker takes the opposite side of the trade. If the trader makes a profit, the broker pays out; if the trader loses, the broker profits from the spread and potentially from the loss.Lesson: Market makers are easy to use but can have conflicts of interest.Example 2: ECN BrokerSetup: A trader places a buy order for gold at $1,900.Action: The ECN broker sends the order through its network, matching it with a seller offering gold at $1,900.Outcome: The trade is executed with a raw spread of 0.2 pips plus a $7 commission.Lesson: ECN brokers provide transparency and better pricing but charge commissions.Example 3: Regulated vs. Unregulated BrokerSetup: Two traders open accounts — one with a regulated broker and another with an unregulated offshore broker.Action: Both deposit $1,000. The regulated broker executes trades fairly and allows smooth withdrawals, while the unregulated broker blocks withdrawals after profits are made.Outcome: The trader with the regulated broker withdraws safely, while the other loses their funds.Lesson: Always verify regulation before selecting a broker.Final Thoughts / Next StepsFinancial intermediaries are the crucial link between traders and financial markets. Whether you’re trading currencies, stocks, or commodities, you need a broker to help execute your trades and provide access to liquidity.However, not all financial institutions are the same. Choosing a regulated, transparent, and trustworthy service provider can significantly impact your trading experience and safety.Here’s what beginners should focus on:Always check regulation: Verify licenses with official regulators like FCA, ASIC, or CySEC.Understand costs: Compare spreads, commissions, and all fees before making a choice.Test first: Open a demo account or a small live account to check execution speed and withdrawal processes.Focus on tools and support: Choose a trading platform with a solid interface, educational resources, and responsive customer service.Avoid red flags: Stay away from firms making unrealistic promises or offering guaranteed profits.With the right broker, you can trade confidently, knowing your money is secure and your trades are executed fairly.Legal DisclaimerThis content is for educational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, derivative, or broker service. Trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always verify the licensing of your financial service provider with official regulators before opening an account.Continue Your Trading JourneyIf you’re ready to learn about another important trading topic, check out our next guide, "What Is Crypto Trading – A Beginner’s Guide," which explains how cryptocurrency trading works, the risks involved, and how to start trading digital assets safely.If you want to compare reliable options, visit our "Best Online Brokers of 2025" page for a detailed breakdown of trusted and regulated brokers.Beginner FAQWhat does a broker do in trading?A trading service connects individuals to financial markets, executes buy and sell orders, and provides platforms, tools, and customer support.Do I really need a broker to trade?Yes. Retail traders cannot directly access global exchanges or interbank markets. An intermediary makes trading possible.How does a broker make money?Brokers earn through spreads (the difference between buy and sell prices), commissions (a fee per trade), and sometimes additional charges like overnight swaps or withdrawal fees.What is a broker in forex?A forex broker provides access to the currency market, allowing traders to buy and sell currency pairs such as EUR/USD or GBP/JPY through platforms like MT4 or MT5.What is an example of a broker?Examples include well-known regulated financial institutions like IG, Saxo Bank, IC Markets, and Pepperstone, which provide access to forex, CFDs, and other markets.Why would someone use a broker?Because brokers provide market access, leverage, trading platforms, and liquidity that individuals cannot obtain directly. Without brokers, retail traders would have no way to trade currencies, stocks, or commodities.What is the difference between a broker and a dealer?A broker executes orders on behalf of clients, while a dealer trades for its own account, sometimes acting as the counterparty to client trades.Is it safe to use an online broker?Yes, if the broker is regulated by a trusted authority (FCA, ASIC, CySEC, NFA, etc.). Always verify licenses on the regulator’s official register.What are the types of brokers?The main types are market makers, ECN brokers, STP brokers, discount brokers, and full-service brokers. Each has different pricing models and services.Can I trade without a broker?Not as a retail trader. Only large institutions or professional firms can access markets directly.What should I look for in a broker?Regulation, transparent pricing, low spreads/commissions, reliable platforms, good execution speed, and responsive support.Can brokers be trusted?Yes, but only if they are properly licensed and regulated. Unregulated brokers may engage in unfair practices or scams. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The start of the 2026 has been all about US president Trump's threats and actions so far. In the first week, it was the invasion of Venezuela. Last week, it was the attack on the Fed's independence and escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran. This week, tariffs are once again back in the picture as Trump wants the EU to give up Greenland.What a time to be alive, eh?The latest tariffs threat is causing a stir in markets to start the new week now with risk trades on the backfoot. Trump is threatening 10% tariffs on "any and all goods" starting from 1 February and that will jump up to 25% on 1 June after. That unless "a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland". ?Goldman Sachs estimates that the economic hit will be on exports worth roughly 1% to 1.5% of euro area GDP. The breakdown by country can be seen below:The EU has been swift to announce retaliation, with the big one being their €93 billion tariffs package on US goods. As a reminder, this package is one that was suspended last year after both sides came to a "trade deal" over the summer. It is said that these tariffs could be put into effect on 6 February, just days after Trump's tariffs hit.For now, risk trades are taking a knock. US markets might be closed today for the long weekend but futures are pointing lower already. S&P 500 futures are down 0.8% and Nasdaq futures down 1.0%. Meanwhile, European stock futures are pointing to a gap lower by over 1% to start the week.Amid the geopolitical tensions and erratic US administrative policy, precious metals are once again catching fresh bids while the dollar is sitting lower across the board. The latter did see some slight gains early on but they have been quick to fade. Here's a snapshot of dollar pairs at the moment:As for precious metals, they opened with a gap higher to start the week with gold now up 1.7% to $4,671 and silver up 3.7% to $93.49 currently. Hot, hot, hot. ? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan household inflation expectations ease slightly but remain elevated, BOJ survey showsSummary:One-year inflation expectations ease but remain very highHouseholds expect prices to rise 11.6% on average over next yearLong-term inflation expectations remain elevatedSlight softening offers limited reassurance for BOJInflation psychology still deeply entrenchedJapanese households continue to expect prices to rise sharply over both the short and long term, even as inflation expectations edged slightly lower in the latest Bank of Japan quarterly survey, highlighting the persistence of inflation psychology despite recent moderation.The BOJ’s December survey showed that 86.0% of households expect prices to rise one year from now, down modestly from 88.0% in the previous poll. While the proportion eased, it remains historically elevated, underscoring how deeply inflation expectations have become embedded after several years of rising living costs.Households’ price forecasts remain strikingly high. Respondents expect prices to increase by an average of 11.6% over the next year, with a median expectation of 10.0%, pointing to continued anxiety around food, energy and everyday expenses. Such elevated expectations contrast sharply with official inflation measures but are closely watched by policymakers as a gauge of underlying price sentiment.Longer-term expectations also softened slightly but stayed firm. 83.0% of households expect prices to be higher five years from now, compared with 84.8% in the prior survey. On average, respondents expect prices to rise 9.8% over the next five years, while the median expectation stands at 5.0%, suggesting households see inflation moderating over time but remaining structurally higher than in the pre-pandemic era.The persistence of elevated inflation expectations is significant for the BOJ as it continues to normalise monetary policy after years of ultra-loose settings. Policymakers have repeatedly stressed the importance of stable, well-anchored inflation expectations around the 2% target, supported by sustained wage growth.With inflation having exceeded the BOJ’s target for several years, driven largely by food and import costs, households appear unconvinced that price pressures will fade quickly. That dynamic risks reinforcing wage demands and price-setting behaviour, complicating the central bank’s efforts to balance policy normalisation with economic stability. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump on Greenland, the bluster continues: says "now is the time, it will be done"South Korea banks signal modest credit easing as debt curbs persistChina factory output accelerates as retail sales and investment lag - recapChina Q4 GDP slows to three-year low despite hitting 2025 growth targetChina home prices fall again in December as property downturn persistsChina data: Q4 GDP 4.5% y/y (expected 4.4%), Dec retail sales +0.9% y/y (expected 1.2%)JPY traders heads up, Japan PM Takaichi press conference from 0900GMTChina new home price continued to drop in December 2025.Japan election raises odds of sales tax cut, bond yields jumpPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0051 (vs. estimate at 6.9689)Bitcoin has been slammed lower, back under US$93KUK house asking prices post record seasonal jump, Rightmove saysJapan data: Machine Orders for November: -11.0% m/m (vs. expected -5.1%)Gold has hit a record high after Trump's extra tariff plan announced over the weekendUS stock markets have fallen after Trump's extra tariffs announcement over the weekendReminder: US markets closed for holiday today, Martin Luther King Jr. Day January 19 2026Spain - At least 10 people died in high speed train crashEU calls emergency summit as Trump escalates Greenland tariff threat. Euro a little lower.Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. 'Risk' lower on Trump's latest trade warinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Trump hints Hassett won't be Fed pickAt a glance:Trump threatens escalating tariffs on Europe and the UK over Greenland, triggering retaliation plansEarly FX saw USD bid, but EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD fully reversed initial lossesYen outperformed as JGB yields surged on election-linked tax cut speculationUS equity and Treasury futures gapped lower and remained under pressureChina data reinforced uneven growth, property weakness and demographic headwindsBitcoin sold off sharply amid thin and unconvincing narrativesOver the weekend Trump ‘tweeted’ his plan to impose extra tariffs, in his words: Starting on February 1st, 2026, all of the above mentioned countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland) will be charged a 10% tariff on any and all goods sent to the United States. On June 1st, 2026, the tariff will be increased to 25%. This tariff will remain in place until a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland.Europe and the UK responded with retaliatory tariff plans of their own, though both signalled a preference for negotiation first.In very early FX trade in the timezone, the USD gained ground against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD and others. JPY was the exception, strengthening against the USD following its better performance late last week.The early gap lower in EUR/USD was quickly filled. The pair rebounded sharply from below 1.1580 to highs nudging above 1.1635, with similar V-shaped moves seen in GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The yen again marched to its own beat, with USD/JPY dipping below 157.50 before rebounding above 157.90. I’ll have more to say on Japan further down.US equity index futures gapped lower on Globex and had not recovered as I post. US 10-year Treasury futures also traded lower. Gold and silver rocketed higher. JapanJapanese machinery orders fell 11% m/m in November, more than double the decline economists had expected.That data, however, was overshadowed by political developments. Japan’s looming election has sharply raised the likelihood of a temporary sales tax cut. Senior ruling party figures said scrapping the 8% food tax for two years is firmly on the table as politicians seek to cushion living costs ahead of a likely February vote.Bond markets reacted aggressively, with 10-year JGB yields hitting their highest levels since 1999 on concerns about fiscal slippage and increased issuance.Japan’s Nikkei fell for a third straight session, weighed down by the machinery orders shock, surging yields, Greenland-related geopolitical tension, and a firmer yen.ChinaChina set today’s USD/CNY fixing at 7.0051, the strongest since May 2023.December data reinforced ongoing stress in the property sector. New home prices fell again, while resale prices recorded their steepest decline in over a year. Developers remain under pressure, with debt talks and defaults continuing to surface.Growth data confirmed the imbalance. Q4 GDP slowed to 4.5% y/y, the weakest pace since the post-Covid reopening, even as full-year growth met the 5% target. Industrial output held up, but retail sales and investment disappointed, underlining weak domestic demand.CryptoBitcoin traded sharply lower. The move was blamed on a delayed US crypto bill, though that news broke mid last week. As ever, I’m more inclined to trust analysts who admit they don’t know the catalyst than those recycling thin narratives.Odds and endsETFs linked to China’s “national team” saw another day of record outflows, adding to signs authorities are trying to cap bubble risksUK productivity data showed tentative signs of improvement, based on alternative measuresIron ore fell for a fifth straight session as China confirmed a sharp drop in steel output and new African supply arrivedChina’s population continued to shrink in 2025, with births falling for a fourth consecutive year to the lowest level on record. The workforce is contracting as the population ages, intensifying long-term pressure on growth and the pension system. Despite subsidies and policy incentives, economists warn the demographic trend is unlikely to reverse. From a global perspective, India may increasingly pick up the slack. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.84%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -0.99% Shanghai Composite +0.13%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.34%Still to come:Japan PM press conference at 0900 GMT/ 0400 US Eastern timeUS holiday, markets closed Monday This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The latest post from Trump on his social media app:NATO has been telling Denmark, for 20 years, that "you have to get the Russian threat away from Greenland." Unfortunately, Denmark has been unable to do anything about it. Now it is time, and it will be done!!! President Donald J. Trump The threats and bluster continue. Greenland, Denmark, the EU, indeed the rest of the world are against Trump's invasion plans.Earlier:Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. 'Risk' lower on Trump's latest trade warEU calls emergency summit as Trump escalates Greenland tariff threat. Euro a little lower.US stock markets have fallen after Trump's extra tariffs announcement over the weekendGold has hit a record high after Trump's extra tariff plan announced over the weekendAs posted earlier, ICYMI:The European Union is moving toward an emergency leaders’ summit as U.S. President Donald Trump escalates trade pressure on European allies over Greenland, threatening a new wave of tariffs unless Washington is allowed to purchase the territory.European Council President Antonio Costa said he would convene an extraordinary EU summit in the coming days, following consultations that showed strong unity among member states in support of Denmark and Greenland. An EU official said the meeting is likely to take place in person on Thursday, January 22.In a statement, Costa said EU leaders were prepared to defend the bloc against “any form of coercion” while continuing to engage constructively with the United States. The move underlines growing concern in Brussels that the dispute risks morphing into a broader transatlantic trade confrontation.The escalation comes after Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs are framed by Washington as a response to security and strategic interests in the Arctic.Separately, an EU diplomat told Reuters that a suspended package of retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion on U.S. goods will automatically come back into force on February 6 if no agreement is reached. The measures were shelved last August for six months after Brussels and Washington struck a temporary trade deal, but that accord is now in jeopardy.The political pushback has widened beyond the EU. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Trump that imposing tariffs on allies over Greenland was “wrong,” arguing that security in the High North is a shared priority for NATO allies. Starmer held calls with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte before speaking with the U.S. president.The dispute places fresh strain on transatlantic relations, with markets now watching whether the EU summit can de-escalate the confrontation before automatic tariffs on both sides come into force in early February.The Greenland dispute injects fresh geopolitical risk into EU–U.S. relations, raising the probability of near-term tariff escalation and adding downside risk to European trade sentiment into February. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korean banks are edging toward easier credit in early 2026, but tight household debt controls keep the shift cautious.Summary:Banks’ lending sentiment turns positive for first time in a yearMortgage and corporate lending conditions ease modestlyHousehold debt controls remain firmly in placePotential support for KOSPI financials and cyclicalsWon impact likely secondary to global factorsSouth Korean banks are signalling a tentative shift toward easier lending conditions in early 2026, even as authorities continue to clamp down on household borrowing, according to a central bank survey released Monday.A quarterly survey by the Bank of Korea showed the index tracking banks’ lending attitudes rose sharply to 8 for the January–March period, from -21 in the final quarter of 2025. A positive reading indicates that more lenders plan to ease credit standards rather than tighten them, marking the first time sentiment has turned positive since early 2025.The improvement was broad-based. Banks’ appetite for home mortgage lending rebounded, with the index rising to 6 from -44, while lending sentiment toward large corporates and small- and mid-sized enterprises stood at 6 and 11, respectively. Bank officials expect housing-related loan demand to edge higher, supported by home purchases and demand for lease financing, while credit conditions for businesses remain generally accommodative despite lingering risks among smaller firms.The cautious easing comes against a backdrop of continued regulatory pressure. The government has rolled out targeted restrictions on home purchases and borrowing in the greater Seoul area as part of efforts to cool an overheated property market and contain household debt levels. Those measures are expected to limit the pace of credit expansion even as banks grow marginally more willing to lend.From a market perspective, the shift has mixed implications. A gradual easing of credit conditions could support domestic growth expectations and provide a modest tailwind for South Korean equities, particularly financials and cyclically exposed stocks within the KOSPI. Improved loan growth prospects may help stabilise bank earnings after a period of regulatory-driven caution.For the won, the impact is more nuanced. Easier domestic credit could underpin growth-sensitive sentiment, but ongoing efforts to restrain household leverage and a still-cautious policy stance from the central bank suggest limited downside pressure. Currency moves are likely to remain driven primarily by global risk appetite, U.S. rate expectations and regional capital flows rather than domestic credit dynamics alone.Overall, the survey points to a carefully calibrated shift rather than a full pivot, with policymakers and banks alike seeking to balance growth support against financial stability risks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I popped up the data earlier:China data: Q4 GDP 4.5% y/y (expected 4.4%), Dec retail sales +0.9% y/y (expected 1.2%)See the screenshot above for the short summary of the main headline data points. Follow up on the GDP data is here:China Q4 GDP slows to three-year low despite hitting 2025 growth targetTurning to the December data, it showed factory strength masking weak consumption and investment, highlighting an uneven recovery heading into 2026.Summary:Industrial output accelerates, retail sales disappointInvestment contracts for first time in decadesProperty downturn continues to weigh on confidenceEmployment steady despite weak demandPolicy support ramps up amid global risksChina’s latest activity data highlight an increasingly unbalanced recovery, with industrial output gaining momentum in December while consumer spending and investment continue to underperform, underscoring the challenges facing policymakers in 2026.Official figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed industrial production rose 5.2% year-on-year in December, accelerating from 4.8% in November as manufacturing activity benefited from resilient export demand. In contrast, retail sales grew just 0.9%, slowing from 1.3% the previous month and undershooting market expectations, pointing to persistent weakness in household spending.The investment picture remains even more fragile. Fixed asset investment fell 3.8% in 2025, marking its first annual contraction since 1998, while property investment slumped 17.2%, reflecting the prolonged downturn in the real estate sector. Falling home prices have continued to erode household wealth, compounding the drag on consumption and confidence.Despite subdued demand, labour market conditions have remained relatively stable. The nationwide urban survey-based unemployment rate held steady at 5.1% in December, unchanged from November, suggesting that weakness in spending has yet to translate into broad-based job losses.Looking ahead, the outlook is complicated by rising global trade protectionism and uncertainty around U.S. policy. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, adding to external risks for China’s export sector.Policymakers have moved to provide early support. The People’s Bank of China last week cut sector-specific lending rates and signalled scope for further reductions in banks’ reserve requirements and broader policy rates. Fiscal policy is also set to play a larger role, with Chinese leaders pledging a “proactive” stance this year and analysts expecting Beijing to target growth of around 5% again.Structural challenges remain unresolved. Household consumption accounts for less than 40% of GDP, well below global norms. Institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have long urged China to rebalance toward consumption-led growth, warning that reliance on investment and exports poses longer-term risks unless income growth and social safety nets are strengthened. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Q4 GDP slows to 4.5% y/y, weakest in three yearsFull-year 2025 growth hits 5.0% targetExport strength offsets weak domestic demandProperty slump and deflation drag on confidenceStructural imbalances remain key riskChina met its 2025 growth target, but a sharp Q4 slowdown highlights rising dependence on exports amid weak domestic demand.China’s economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in three years in the final quarter of 2025, highlighting mounting strains from soft domestic demand even as strong exports allowed the economy to meet the government’s full-year growth target, Reuters reported.Data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed gross domestic product expanded 4.5% year-on-year in Q4, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter. The outcome was marginally above market expectations but marked the slowest quarterly pace since the post-pandemic reopening period.On a quarterly basis, output rose 1.2% in October–December, exceeding forecasts for a 1.0% increase and edging above the prior quarter’s 1.1% gain. Even so, economists say momentum remains fragile as consumer confidence and private investment continue to lag.For 2025 as a whole, China’s economy grew 5.0%, matching Beijing’s official target of “around 5%” and slightly outperforming market expectations. The result reflects resilience in the face of external headwinds, aided by exporters’ success in diversifying away from the United States and by tariff increases that proved less severe than initially feared.China’s manufacturing and export engine remained the key growth driver. The country last week reported a record trade surplus of nearly US$1.2 trillion in 2025, underpinned by robust shipments to emerging markets and Europe. That export strength enabled policymakers to limit stimulus to targeted measures rather than broad-based easing.However, the heavy reliance on external demand underscores persistent vulnerabilities. Domestic consumption and investment weakened further late last year, weighed down by a prolonged property downturn, falling home prices and entrenched deflationary pressures. Analysts warn that without a sustained recovery in household confidence, growth risks becoming increasingly unbalanced.Structural challenges remain a central concern for policymakers. While export-led resilience has bought time, economists caution that weak domestic demand, excess capacity and property sector stress pose longer-term risks to China’s growth trajectory heading into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:New home prices fall 0.4% m/m, 2.7% y/y in DecemberAnnual decline fastest in five monthsMajority of cities continue to record price fallsSecondary market weakness persists across all tiersProperty investment and sales remain deeply negativeChina’s December housing data point to a stubborn property slump that continues to weigh on confidence despite policy support.China’s new home prices fell again in December, reinforcing signs that the country’s prolonged property downturn remains firmly entrenched despite repeated policy efforts to stabilise the sector, according to official data.Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed new home prices declined 0.4% month-on-month, matching November’s pace of contraction. On a year-on-year basis, prices were down 2.7%, accelerating from a 2.4% annual fall in November and marking the steepest decline in five months.The data underline the uneven and fragile nature of the recovery in China’s housing market, which remains a key drag on household confidence and broader economic momentum. Of the 70 cities tracked by the NBS, just six recorded price increases in December, while 58 cities posted declines, highlighting the breadth of the weakness.Conditions in the secondary, or resale, market also deteriorated further. Existing home prices fell faster from a year earlier across tier-one, tier-two and tier-three cities, signalling that price pressures are not confined to lower-tier regions and remain widespread across urban China.Economists say a sustained recovery in housing would be critical for lifting consumer sentiment, given the sector’s central role in household wealth. A stabilisation in prices could also help ease structural imbalances between supply and demand that continue to weigh on growth.Separate official data show the scale of the downturn. Property investment fell 17.2% in 2025, while home sales by floor area dropped 8.7%, reflecting weak buyer confidence and cautious developer activity.In a New Year article, Qiushi, the Communist Party’s flagship journal, described the sector as undergoing a “profound adjustment” but insisted property remains a pillar of the economy with scope for transformation. The piece called for “strong policy actions” to stabilise expectations.China’s property crisis began in mid-2021 following a crackdown on excessive leverage, pushing major developers such as Country Garden and Evergrande into financial distress. Regulators said last week they would promote the normal operation of programmes designed to accelerate financing for stalled residential projects, though markets remain sceptical that current measures are sufficient to reverse the slide. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Added: China Q4 GDP slows to three-year low despite hitting 2025 growth targetChina factory output accelerates as retail sales and investment lag - recapGDP Q4 2025 4.5% y/y a beatexpected 4.4%, prior 4.8%1.2% q/qexpected 1.0%, prior 1.1%December 2025 data:Retail Sales 0.9% y/yexpected 1.2%, prior 1.3%Industrial Production 5.2% y/yexpected 5.0%, prior 4.8%Fixed Asset Investment -3.8% y/yexpected -3.0%, prior -2.6%January to December property investment -17.2% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This will be in relation to the snap election expected. Just noting this. Earlier:Japan election raises odds of sales tax cut, bond yields jump This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China December 2025 new home prices -0.4% m/m prior -0.4%-2.7% y/yprior -2.4%China December 2025 used home prices -0.7% m/mprior -0.7%The falls continue. It's a vicious circle for home prices in China, why buy now when prices are expected to keep falling. ---The main data from China is still to comeI wrote a preview earlier ICYMI:Q4 GDP seen at 4.5% y/y, weakest in three yearsFull-year 2025 growth likely meets ~5% target, but nominal growth lagsRetail sales and investment remain key drags on activityIndustrial production supported by resilient exportsPolicy stance cautious, with limited appetite for major stimulusChina is expected to have ended 2025 with its weakest quarterly growth in three years, highlighting an increasingly uneven recovery driven by exports rather than domestic demand as the economy heads into 2026.Data are forecast to show that while overseas demand has remained resilient, consumption and investment continue to drag on growth. Economists expect gross domestic product to have expanded 4.5% y/y in Q4, the slowest pace since the post-pandemic reopening, even as full-year growth reaches around 5%, in line with Beijing’s official target.The composition of growth remains the key concern. A historic contraction in investment and faltering household demand are expected to offset momentum from exports, which have been boosted by record shipments outside the United States despite renewed trade tensions under U.S. President Donald Trump.Retail sales growth is forecast to ease to a fresh three-year low in December, reflecting weak income growth, soft labour conditions and ongoing pressure from falling home prices. Fixed asset investment is expected to post its first annual contraction since official records began three decades ago, underscoring the depth of the property downturn and the saturation of infrastructure spending.By contrast, industrial production is likely to have accelerated in December to its fastest pace since September, supported by strong external demand. That divergence reinforces expectations that China’s two-speed growth model will persist into 2026, with exports carrying the load as domestic demand remains subdued.Deflation continues to complicate the outlook. While real GDP growth may meet the government’s target, nominal expansion is expected to be significantly weaker, weighing on corporate earnings, household wealth and fiscal revenues.Policymakers appear reluctant to respond with large-scale stimulus. President Xi Jinping has signalled greater tolerance for slower growth, while concerns around local government debt limit Beijing’s willingness to expand aggressively.China’s central bank has reinforced that message. The People’s Bank of China has leaned toward targeted easing, recently lowering the cost of structural lending tools while only cautiously flagging scope for broader rate cuts. Officials have increasingly acknowledged that monetary easing is losing effectiveness in an economy constrained by weak demand and structural imbalances. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Japan election boosts chances of consumption tax cutLDP and opposition back temporary removal of food tax10-year JGB yield hits highest level since 1999Inflation pressures intensify political push for reliefFiscal risks worry bond investorsJapan election risks revive sales tax cut debate, rattling bond marketsJapan’s looming snap general election is sharply increasing the likelihood of a temporary cut to the country’s consumption tax, as both ruling and opposition politicians signal support for easing the cost-of-living burden on households, a move that is already unsettling bond markets, Reuters reported.Senior figures from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) said on Sunday that cutting the 8% consumption tax on food purchases is now firmly on the table, reflecting growing political pressure ahead of a potential February election. Japan currently applies an 8% sales tax to food and a 10% rate on other goods and services, with the levy forming a critical pillar of funding for social welfare in an ageing society.LDP secretary-general Shunichi Suzuki pointed to an earlier agreement with coalition partner Ishin to aim for scrapping the food tax for two years, saying the party intends to honour commitments already made.Market concerns over Japan’s fiscal trajectory intensified as the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond climbed to 2.215%, its highest level since 1999, reflecting fears that tax cuts would be financed through additional debt issuance.According to Japanese media, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering pledging a temporary food tax cut when she announces a snap election, expected later this month. The proposal has also gained traction across the political spectrum, with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and other opposition groups backing similar measures.Supporters argue that tax relief is needed after inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for nearly four years, driven largely by persistently high food prices. Critics, however, warn that scrapping the food levy would cost roughly 5 trillion yen ($31.7bn) annually, exacerbating Japan’s already strained public finances and raising the risk of a sustained bond market sell-off. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. The setting of the USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0051 is the strongest for CNY since May 16 or 2023. The previous close was 6.9720PBOC injects 158.3bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of 1.4%.Separately, China’s ultra-low deposit rates are pushing households to redeploy trillions into markets, lifting equities and alternative assets.Around US$7trn shifting from maturing deposits into higher-yielding assetsDeposit rates near 1% accelerating search for returns50trn yuan of deposits mature in 2026, up sharply from last yearStocks, insurance and gold attracting strong inflowsRegulators tightening oversight to limit speculationChinese households are in the early stages of reallocating an estimated US$7 trillion from maturing bank time deposits into higher-yielding investments, as ultra-low deposit rates accelerate a broad-based search for returns across financial markets.The shift reflects a sharp decline in the appeal of traditional savings products. Time deposit rates at major Chinese banks have fallen toward 1%, prompting households to look beyond cash holdings after years of subdued returns from property and intermittent volatility in equity markets.Data and market estimates suggest around 50 trillion yuan in household deposits are set to mature in 2026, roughly 10 trillion yuan more than last year, with a large share concentrated in state-owned banks during the first half of the year. As those funds roll off, increasing amounts are flowing into equities, wealth management products, insurance policies and alternative assets such as gold.The rotation is already visible in asset prices. Chinese equities surged last month, adding more than US$1 trillion in market capitalisation, while the STAR (Nasdaq-style tech board) 50 Index has risen more than 12% so far in 2026. Demand for insurance products has also strengthened, reflecting households’ preference for higher-yielding yet relatively stable alternatives to deposits. Gold prices have meanwhile pushed to record highs, benefiting from both domestic demand and broader global tailwinds.Beijing has welcomed the reallocation as part of a longer-term effort to deepen capital markets and reduce the economy’s reliance on bank-centric savings. Policymakers see a gradual shift toward market-based investment as supportive of more sustainable growth and improved capital allocation.However, authorities remain cautious. Regulators have moved to tighten margin financing rules and stepped up monitoring of trading activity to prevent speculative excesses reminiscent of past boom-and-bust cycles. The approach reflects a desire to encourage participation without allowing leverage-driven volatility to undermine financial stability.The People’s Bank of China has also signalled it will rely on targeted policy tools rather than aggressive rate cuts, reinforcing incentives for households to deploy savings more productively while keeping broader financial risks in check.The rotation of household savings into markets supports Chinese asset prices but raises volatility risks, reinforcing Beijing’s push for tighter supervision alongside gradual financial liberalisation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Risk has taken a hit, as has the US dollar after the news over the weekend of Trump promising higher tariffs again and Europe assessing retaliationEarlier:Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. 'Risk' lower on Trump's latest trade warEU calls emergency summit as Trump escalates Greenland tariff threat. Euro a little lower.US stock markets have fallen after Trump's extra tariffs announcement over the weekendGold has hit a record high after Trump's extra tariff plan announced over the weekendAs a recap. The European Union is moving swiftly to prevent a deepening trade confrontation with the United States after President Donald Trump threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on European allies in a dispute centred on Greenland.EU officials say the bloc is now operating on two fronts: ramping up diplomatic engagement with Washington in an effort to defuse tensions, while simultaneously preparing retaliatory measures should negotiations fail. The standoff is set to dominate discussions at an emergency summit of EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday, reflecting growing concern that the dispute could spiral into a broader transatlantic trade clash.Trump announced over the weekend that the United States would introduce tariffs of 10% from February 1 on a group of European countries, including Denmark, France, Germany and Sweden, with the rate rising to 25% from June. The measures, he said, would remain in place unless the U.S. is allowed to purchase Greenland — a demand European leaders have dismissed as unacceptable pressure on close allies.Brussels has responded by reviving preparations for a long-suspended package of countermeasures targeting €93 billion worth of U.S. imports. Those tariffs were frozen last August after a temporary trade understanding between the EU and Washington, but officials say they are now set to automatically come back into force on February 6 unless a new agreement is reached.Beyond tariffs, EU capitals are weighing whether to deploy the bloc’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, a far-reaching tool designed to respond to economic pressure from third countries. The mechanism would allow the EU to limit U.S. access to public procurement contracts, investment opportunities, financial services and parts of the digital economy. While several member states favour using the instrument to send a strong signal, diplomats say support remains uneven, with many governments preferring to begin with more traditional trade retaliation.European Council President Antonio Costa said consultations among member states had demonstrated firm unity in support of Denmark and Greenland, alongside a shared readiness to resist what the bloc views as coercive trade tactics. At the same time, he stressed that the EU remains open to dialogue with Washington.Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen echoed that message, saying Europe would not bend under pressure and welcoming the solidarity shown by EU partners.Attention is now turning to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where Trump is expected to appear later this week. EU officials hope the gathering will provide an opportunity to de-escalate tensions, but warn that failure to do so risks renewed market volatility and further strain on already fragile transatlantic trade relations. ---Gold update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:UK asking prices rise 2.8% m/m, biggest January jump on recordPrices now 0.5% higher y/y after recent weaknessHousing supply at highest seasonal level since 2014Confidence improves after budget uncertainty fadesAffordability pressures still limit upsideUK asking prices recorded their strongest rise for this time of year on record, signalling a tentative rebound in seller confidence after months of uncertainty surrounding last year’s budget.Property portal Rightmove said average asking prices for newly listed homes rose 2.8% month-on-month in the four weeks to January 10 — the largest increase for any month since 2015 — following a 1.8% decline in the previous period. Prices are now 0.5% higher than a year earlier, while housing supply has climbed to its highest level for this time of year since 2014.The recovery follows a period of caution linked to speculation ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November tax and spending statement, which unsettled buyers and sellers alike. While Reeves announced £26 billion in tax increases, most measures were deferred and income tax rates were left unchanged, easing fears of a sharper hit to household finances.Rightmove said sellers are now returning to the market with greater confidence, encouraged by stabilising expectations and a more predictable policy outlook. The shift echoes recent survey evidence from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, which reported improving sentiment across the housing market.However, Rightmove cautioned that the rebound remains modest. Asking prices have only returned to levels last seen in mid-2025, before budget speculation dented confidence. Elevated borrowing costs and stretched affordability continue to cap upside momentum, suggesting price growth is likely to remain subdued despite the strong seasonal start. The data point to stabilising UK housing sentiment but suggest limited scope for sustained price acceleration while mortgage affordability remains tight.***Separately, Summary:Think tank urges UK government to end policy flip-flopsProductivity rose 3.1% y/y in Q3 2025Housing, labour and trade reforms key to faster growthBrexit impact may be larger than official estimatesReforms could lift incomes by £2,000 a yearBritain’s government needs to abandon policy reversals and move decisively on structural reforms if it wants to capitalise on early signs of economic improvement, according to a report from the Resolution Foundation.The think tank said the 18 months since Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory have been marked by frequent U-turns, tentative policy proposals and diluted reforms, limiting progress on boosting growth and productivity.While headline economic performance has remained weak, the Resolution Foundation noted emerging evidence that productivity may be turning a corner. Adjusting for past under-recording of employment, productivity rose 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, offering a rare bright spot after years of stagnation.To sustain that momentum, the report urged bolder action on housing, labour markets and trade. Measures such as easing planning restrictions to meet urban housing targets, deeper regulatory alignment with the European Union, and policies to draw more young and older workers into employment could lift household incomes by around £2,000 a year, it said.That improvement would also generate sufficient tax revenue to fund a 25% increase in NHS spending, the think tank estimated.Britain’s economy has underperformed peers for much of the past two decades, with GDP per capita slipping further behind other major European countries since the pandemic. The Resolution Foundation said the drag from Brexit could be close to double the 4% hit assumed by official forecasters, compounding the effects of COVID and the energy price shock.The report reinforces concerns that without structural reform, any UK productivity rebound may prove short-lived, limiting medium-term growth and fiscal headroom. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Just posting this data, I'll be back with more separately on this. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Nov) -6.4%expected +4.9%, prior +12.5%(MoM) (Nov) -11.0%expected -5.1%, prior 7.0%-- Private sector machinery orders (excluding ship and power equipment) A guide to business investment (capex) for the months ahead (6 to 9 months out) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.