There is nothing on the data agenda likely to move around major FX too much upon release. I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD is pushing to fresh session highs, with price action stretching toward the next upside targets at 1.1769 (July 28 high) and 1.17874 (July 24 high). Earlier in the U.S. session, the pair briefly slipped back below a swing area between 1.1730 and 1.1741 after testing its upper edge during European trading. However, renewed dollar selling in early New York hours turned the tide, allowing the pair to break above the zone, consolidate within it, and then extend higher into the close.For now, the 1.1730–1.1741 zone has flipped to near-term support, and buyers will look to defend it on any pullbacks. A sustained move back below this area would likely disappoint bulls and trigger some short-term profit-taking, but as long as it holds, momentum favors a continued push toward the July highs.Lower US yields have contributed to the dollar selling today. A flatter yield curve is also a tailwind as inflation fears abate.2-year yield 3.494%, -1.2 basis points.5-year yield 3.567%, -1.5 basis points10-year yield 4.043%, -4.2 basis points30-year yield 4.687%, -8.7 basis points.The 10-year yield is trading at its lowest level since April 7. The 30-year yield is trading at its lowest level since May 1. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

investingLive.com Stock Market UpdateMarket ToneFull Day: Broad indices leaned slightly green overall with modest gains across financials, energy, and parts of technology. Defensive retail names (WMT, COST) held steady, while healthcare dragged with LLY leading losses.Last 4 Hours: Leadership narrowed — mega caps cooled, semiconductors stayed heavy, and the tape rotated defensively.Last Hour: A clear shift to mixed red as profit-taking hit large caps, with healthcare and semis still weak, but energy and financials holding green.Key Movers (Daily % Change)Technology & Semis:AAPL +0.09% (from -0.98% earlier)MSFT -0.24% (vs -0.43%)NVDA -0.17% (vs -0.40%)AMD -0.04%, QCOM -0.10%, TXN +0.67%AVGO -0.41%Semi-equipment still heavy: KLAC -0.28%, AMAT -0.33%Communication & Internet:GOOG -0.18%, META -0.16%AMZN -0.04%, TSLA -0.07%NFLX -0.14%Software & Services:CRM +0.29%, NOW +0.36%IBM +0.64% (biggest IT services gainer)UBER +0.06% (cooled from +1.78% earlier)Financials:JPM +0.22%, C +0.20%, GS +0.09%V -0.47%, MA -0.32%, BRK-B -0.13%Asset managers mixed: KKR +1.13%, BX -0.01%Healthcare:LLY -0.77% (reversal from +2.51% earlier strength)JNJ -0.03%, PFE +0.15%, ABBV +0.43%, MRK +0.13%Healthcare plans weak: CVS -1.42%, CI -0.56%, UNH -0.06%Consumer Staples:WMT +0.14%, COST +0.21%KO -0.14%, PG -0.06%, PM +0.24%Energy & Industrials:XOM +0.11%, CVX +0.30%BA -0.01%, RTX -0.47%, GE -0.13%Takeaways by TimeframeDaily View: Market breadth was modestly positive. Energy and financials supported the tape, but gains were capped by healthcare weakness and muted performance in mega caps.Last 4 Hours: The market shifted defensive. Tech leadership narrowed, with semis and equipment pressured, and healthcare leaders fading hard.Last Hour: A small risk-off lean. Investors took profits in mega caps, defensive sectors (staples, REITs) held up best, and semis stayed red.For Stock Traders and InvestorsWatch semiconductor equipment (KLAC, AMAT, LRCX) — still the cleanest short setups if weakness continues.Healthcare reversal: LLY turned from strong green intraday to sharp red close, dragging the sector. Potential for further rotation out of pharma/biotech near-term.Financials & energy resilience: JPM, CVX, and XOM show relative strength that can anchor the tape if mega caps stay flat.Mega cap tech needs to stabilize (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA) for indices to re-expand upside momentum tomorrow. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil is higher on the day but well off the high levels. The weekend’s OPEC+ decision to raise output by 137,000 barrels a day in October was already priced in after last week’s retreat, and the smaller-than-usual hike is seen as a signal producers remain committed to defending prices. Analysts note this restrained approach eases fears of oversupply, while ongoing geopolitical risks—from the Russia-Ukraine war to potential new U.S. sanctions—are adding further support to the market.Nevertheless, the high price extended to $63.34 before rotating to the downside and reaching toward the low from earlier in the day near $61.85. Last week, the low price on Friday extended to $61.45, which equaled the low price going back to August 18. Ultimately, if the sellers are to take more control, getting below that double bottom is required. Looking at the daily chart below, the risk is a move back above the 100 day moving average currently at $64.28. As long as the price can remain below that level, the sellers remain more in control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Noam Chomsky used to say something along the lines of "if you want to know the truth, read the business press because their readers need to know what’s going on."He would certainly be interested to hear what the McDonald's CEO said last week on CNBC. It was a remarkably candid conversation from a company that surely has deep insights into consumer behaviour in the US and around the world.CEO Chris Kempczinski talked about tghe"Particularly, with middle- and lower-income consumers, they’re feeling under a lot of pressure right now. I think there is a lot of commentary about what’s the state of the economy, how is it doing and what we see is it’s really kind of a two-tier economy," Kempczinski said. "If you are upper-income, earning over $100,000, things are good. Stock markets are near all-time highs, you are feeling quite confident about things, you are seeing international travel – all those barometers of upper-income consumers are doing quite well. What we see with middle and lower-income consumers is actually a different story,"Traffic for lower-income customers are down double digits he said, noting that people are skipping breakfast."It’s that consumer is under a lot of pressure in our industry, traffic for lower-income consumers is down double digits, and it’s because people are either choosing to skip a meal – we are seeing breakfast, people are actually skipping breakfast – or they are choosing to just eat at home," Kempczinski said.He added that the wealthy consumer isn't feeling it at all and that they're not trading down.In terms of the revenue side, he said that franchisees were probably 10% off all-time cashflow highs.That's some remarkably good insight that is certainly actionable as an investor. You want to stay away from businesses that are sensitive to the low-and-middle income cohort right now and gravitate to the high end. That starts with luxury brands but extends to travel, premium travel, business flying and companies with pricing power.You can try to bar-bell that with dollar stores but I think that's risky given the potential cuts to entitlements and food stamps. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The one thing that doesn't make sense to me about the Fed is the calendar.To my way of thinking, you want to make your decision-making and communication as systematic as possible. Yet the Fed has this funky calendar where they have different sets of information at each meeting.Wouldn't it be better to have a system where they get non-farm payrolls and CPI then a week to communicate it and then have the meeting?This week illustrates the problem as the non-farm payrolls report came right before the Fed blackout. So now we're in a position where we have to wait for some kind of leak or guess what the Fed will do after CPI. It's a mess.Right now market pricing is 10% for 50 bps but what if we get a soft CPI report? Or some other negative economic news? Do we really want to go into the FOMC priced at a one-in-four chance of a 50 bps cut? That's just going to create the kind of volatility that the Fed usually aims to avoid. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Political instability is the baseline these days, no?In the past 24 hours, we've lost high-ranking political leaders in Japan and France and neither the yen nor euro have really cared. The thing is, if you're fleeing political instability, where are you going to go?The UK? The USA?Good luck with that. Instability is everywhere and that reality is seemingly priced in. All roads lead back to Washington and how Trump's tariff war plays out.In the meantime...more records for gold today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

ECB's Villeroy says that we are in a good position with inflation in Europe.The ECB is widely expected to hold rates steady this Thursday, keeping the main refinancing rate at 2.15% after cutting aggressively since mid-2024. With inflation now hovering close to 2% and growth steadier than feared, policymakers are set to pause and assess the impact of earlier easing. Markets will focus on the new staff projections and any remarks on political risks in France or global tariff tensions, but overall, traders see policy staying on hold into year-end, with the next move more likely in 2026. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

France's PM Bayrou loses vote of confidence in the national assembly. This was as expected This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD pair is up 0.50% on the day, supported by stronger commodities and a softer U.S. dollar. Gold is higher by $54 (1.52%), while silver has gained 0.86%, both lending tailwinds to the Aussie.From a technical perspective, the AUDUSD briefly broke above a swing area between 0.65889 and 0.65946 earlier in the session, reaching a high of 0.65981. However, momentum stalled, and the pair has since slipped back below the lower edge of that zone at 0.65889. Notably, Friday’s rally also stalled at this same swing area, where sellers stepped in and capped the upside. The repeated failure to sustain a break higher leaves buyers disappointed and provides sellers with a fresh opportunity to lean against resistance, betting on a turn lower.On the downside, the first support level to watch is the August 14 swing high at 0.6567. A move below that would target the September 1 swing high at 0.6559. Breaking both should invite additional downside momentum as failed buyers flip to the sell side.If the buyers are able to regroup and extend back above the swing area high at 0.65946, we should see additional momentum with the high price from July at 0.66247 as the next major target. That level represents the high for the year and the highest level going back to November 2024. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Geopolitical news: Israeli PM Netanyahu warns Gaza residents to leave nowSays that forces are now organizing and assembling into Gaza city for a ground maneuverOver the weekend, Pres. Trump said He thought they will have a deal on Gaza very soonA deal may mean a full military occupation of Gaza city and the eradication of Hamas. We will see how this plays out. Gold prices continue to draw strong support from heightened geopolitical tensions, with the metal up $50.86 (1.42%) on the day at $3,636.67. Earlier, it set a new intraday high at $3,646.46.Last Tuesday marked a pivotal breakout as gold climbed above its prior all-time intraday high of $3,500.12 (set on April 22). That move ended the broad sideways range that had contained prices between $3,121 and $3,500 since April. More recently, gold had been consolidating in a narrower band between $3,245 and $3,452, but that zone was also cleared on September 2.With both of those barriers broken, the former resistance zone between $3,452 and $3,500 now shifts to support. As long as gold holds above that area, buyers remain firmly in control and the bullish run has room to extend further. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD moved lower alongside broader U.S. dollar weakness today, but buyers stepped in at a familiar support zone. The pair tested the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart near 1.37844 (green line) before bouncing higher. Recall that on Friday, following the U.S. jobs report, price slipped below this same 200-bar average but found willing buyers near the 100-day moving average at 1.37626 (lower blue line on the chart above).Since the successful test of the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart, the rebound has carried the pair back above a third key reference point—the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.3814. Together, these three levels—the 100-day MA (1.37626), the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour (1.37844), and the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour (1.3814)—form the pivotal zone that will guide the bias in the new trading week.As long as price can stay above this cluster and extend away from the higher 100-bar 4-hour average, the outlook tilts more bullish. Conversely, a sustained break back below the 100-day moving average at 1.37626 would shift the bias to the downside and re-open the door for further declines.So far, despite the declines from Friday's close, the support has held keeping the buyers in play and in more control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

European stock markets were soft to start September as the DAX fell 1.3% last week but they rebounded strongly today.Closing changes on the day:Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +1.0%France CAC +0.9%UK FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain IBEX +1.1%Italy's FTSE MIB +0.3%Italy's stock market (shown above) is a global best-performer this year but fell the prior two weeks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The NASDAQ index pushed to a fresh all-time intraday high at 21,885.62, edging past Friday’s peak at 21,878.81. However, momentum on the break was limited, and the index quickly slipped back below both that prior high and the 21,867 area. Even so, the NASDAQ remains up about 166 points, or 0.77%, on the session. For now, traders may view the pullback as a potential failed break, with some shifting their focus from buying dips to probing the short side.That said, the bigger test for sellers lies with the moving averages. On the hourly chart, the index fell below its 200-hour moving average (green line) last Tuesday during a downside gap, but buyers quickly reclaimed the level the very next day, frustrating bearish momentum and fueling further gains. Similar failed breakdowns occurred earlier in August: from August 20–22 and again on August 1 (after the U.S. jobs report), where price slipped below the 200-hour average only to rebound swiftly.The message is clear: unless sellers can not only break below the key moving averages but also sustain trading beneath them, bearish efforts will likely fall short. Absent that shift, buyers continue to hold the upper hand, with the broader trend still tilted to the upside.Some winners today include:Robinhood Markets (HOOD) +13.94%Broadcom (AVGO) +3.81%Alibaba (BABA) +3.07%Palantir (PLTR) +2.89%Lam Research (LRCX) +2.74%Synopsys (SNPS) +2.70%Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) +2.67%GameStop (GME) +2.63%Uber Technologies (UBER) +2.48%Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) +2.30%Amazon.com (AMZN) +2.07%Tencent (TCEHY) +1.84%NVIDIA (NVDA) +1.84%CrowdStrike (CRWD) +1.81%Arm Holdings (ARM) +1.82%Adobe (ADBE) +1.79%ASML Holding (ASML) +1.74%DoorDash (DASH) +1.68%Palo Alto Networks (PANW) +1.64% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Consumers downgraded view of labor marketPublic expected higher unemployment a year from nowPublic saw a greater chance of losing jobFound worst probability of finding a new job since the series started in June 2013Perceptions of current financial situation lost groundThree-year inflation unchanged at 3%Five-year inflation unchanged at 2.9%Home price rise expectations unchanged at 2.9%Some gloom is settling in over the jobs market. That's the kind of thing that can stifle spending and some of the dynamism in an economy around jobs switching. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold has hit a new record, up $52 to $3638 as it's gone parabolic since breaking the April-Sept range.The chart pretty much speaks for itself and I wrote about the bull case every day last week. There is no real mystery here:Trump is aiming to take over the Fed and lower rates to levels they otherwise wouldn't beThe global order on trade is breaking downThe global order around military intervention is breaking down (see J.D. Vance's comments on killing Venezuelan citizens on the weekend)Fiscal spending is out of controlThe technicals align This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD sold off across the board on Friday following another soft NFP report. The dovish bets on the Fed increased as a result and the market is now expecting three rate cuts by year-end (70 bps). Moreover, we have also an 8% probability of a 50 bps cut in September but that will likely happen only if we get a soft CPI report on Thursday. In that case, the greenback will likely weaken further into the FOMC meeting.Overall, if one zooms out, the US dollar continues to range although the dovish bets on the Fed keep weighing on the currency. Part of that could be the fact that the bearish positioning on the dollar could be overstretched and we might be at the peak of the dovish pricing. In fact, if the Fed cuts trigger stronger economic activity in the next months, the rate cuts in 2026 could be priced out and support the dollar. Nevertheless, the trend is still skewed to the downside, and we might need strong data to reverse it.On the GBP side, nothing has changed fundamentally. The BoE delivered a hawkish cut at the last meeting and since then the data has been coming on the hotter side. In fact, the latest UK CPI surprised once again to the upside and the latest Flash PMIs, although mixed, showed strength and persistent inflationary pressures.Last week, we got a selloff in the pound across the board as the UK 30yr yield jumped to a new cycle high. That was eventually erased in the following days and especially after the soft NFP report. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD sold off all the way back to the key 1.3368 support after the UK 30yr yields jumped to a new cycle high but eventually bounced off of the support. The price is now back near the 1.3590 resistance. If the price gets there, the sellers will likely step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the 1.3368 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.3790 level next.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the 1.3368 support next.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsOn Wednesday we get the US PPI report. On Thursday, we get the US CPI report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the UK GDP and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin technical analysis and price prediction for today and this weekOne can say that bitcoin is still hot and that is probably right. But when it was hotter, big companies that buy and hold it (we call them "Bitcoin treasury companies") were super popular at a recent conference in Hong Kong. We can see from the data that they own more Bitcoin than ever before. But a new report shows they're not buying it as fast or as much as they used to. Basically, they're being more careful with their money now.Even though crypto companies now hold a record 840,000 Bitcoin, a new report shows they are buying much less at a time. For instance, the leading buyer, Strategy, is now only buying about 1,200 Bitcoin per transaction, an 86% drop from its purchases earlier this year. This suggests these companies are either running low on cash or are becoming more cautious.Bitcoin Futures Technical Analysis & Price Prediction for Today — tradeCompass (September 8, 2025)Before today’s Bitcoin technical analysis, here’s a quick, flowing backdrop from our newsroom at investingLive: reserve strategy made headlines as El Salvador bought gold for the first time since 1990 to diversify away from Bitcoin — a tilt that can read mildly bearish-BTC / bullish-gold. Policy risk also featured, with Japan considering tighter crypto regulation and enforcement, often a chill for speculative appetite. On the other side of the ledger, the “institutional adoption” drum kept beating as our team explored why some institutions might “accidentally” end up HODLing Bitcoin this Friday, while U.S. politics added intrigue after Eric Trump teased a “big announcement” for Friday. None of these headlines alone set a single, clear-cut direction, but together they create a useful soundtrack for today’s Bitcoin price prediction map.Bullish above: 112,000 Bearish below: 111,520 Current price: 112,035 Primary bias: Leaning bullish while holding above 112,000 (Friday’s VWAP)Bitcoin Price Prediction Map: Context & BiasPrice is hovering just above the bullish threshold (112,000), keeping a modest upside lean while it holds. A decisive drop below 111,520 flips the map to bearish and shifts focus to Friday/early-September profile nodes.Bitcoin Key Levels & Profit Targets for Today (tradeCompass)Bullish plan for Bitcoin futures today (above 112,000)112,465 – Near today’s 3rd upper VWAP deviation; momentum often pauses/exhausts here. 112,620 – Just under Friday’s VAH; per tradeCompass, move stop to breakeven after TP2. 112,895 – Around Sep 3 POC; strong “price magnet” on rotations. 113,120 – Near Sep 3 VAH; watch for responsive flows. 113,475 – In line with Aug 28 POC; deeper extension target. 113,945 – Just under Aug 28 VAH; stretch objective into prior acceptance.Bearish plan for Bitcoin futures today (below 111,520)111,250 – First partial; local liquidity pocket on activation. 111,050 – Friday’s POC; if reached, shift stop to entry. 110,755 – Above Sep 4 VWAP / Sep 2 VAL cluster; reaction zone. 110,295 – Just over Sep 4 POC; continuation checkpoint. 109,760 – Near Sep 4 VAL; key downside objective.How to use this Bitcoin technical analysis “compass”If price fails to sustain above 112,000, range fades can re-emerge; a clean break below 111,520 signals a deeper bearish phase toward the profile targets. We keep it disciplined: one trade per direction per day to curb overtrading. Scale out at logical levels; after TP2, protect the remainder by moving the stop to breakeven.Educational mini-note: Dynamic VWAP bands in cryptoVWAP bands expand in trends and contract in ranges. On BTC futures, third-deviation tags (e.g., 112,465 today) frequently mark areas where momentum cools or flips, making them sensible partial-profit zones rather than “all-or-nothing” targets.Risk & stop logic (tradeCompass at investingLive.com)Set your stop just beyond your activation (entry-side) threshold with a small buffer—not on the line, not far. Never place a stop beyond the opposite threshold; if that level is breached, the setup is invalid and you should already be out. After TP2, move the stop to entry (breakeven) to safeguard gains and manage the runner.Disclaimer, Crypto Investors and Traders of All KindThis Bitcoin price prediction & technical analysis is decision support, not financial advice. Futures and crypto carry substantial risk. Manage size and risk carefully, and trade at your own discretion. Visit investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive.com) for additional views. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Well, I think they're just a bit late to update their call as market expectations for the BOE have been quite settled for a while now. As things stand, traders are not seeing any more rate cuts for this year but are pricing in a strong probability of the next one being in February 2026. As for the first full rate cut priced in though, that will be for March next year.Besides inflation risks, the November budget is going to be a key factor to watch in taking stock of the fiscal side of things for the UK economy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Rate cuts by year-endFed: 70 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting; the rest for a 50 bps cut) ECB: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 12 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 42 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 30 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 38 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 7 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-endBoJ: 12 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)The biggest changes in interest rates expectations happened on Friday as we got the US and Canadian jobs data. Both were softer than expected although the Canadian one was worse. The market quickly priced in a third cut for the Fed by year-end (70 bps) and a second rate cut for the BoC (42 bps). Moreover, given some expectations of the Fed being potentially late, the market started to price in also some chances of a 50 bps cut in September. Much like the insurance cut we got in 2024. That might depend on the US CPI report on Thursday though. Soft data could give the Fed more conviction to start with a 50 bps cut and then see how things evolve in the next months. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.