Summary:ANZ world commodity index down 2.1% m/m in DecemberDairy prices slide 5.3%; butter plunges 16.9%Meat and wool prices hit record for fourth monthStrong NZD drags local currency index lowerCommodity mix softens as NZ recovery beginsNew Zealand’s commodity price pulse weakened further in December, with falling dairy prices again outweighing strength in meat and wool, according to the latest ANZ commodity price data.The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell 2.1% month on month in December, driven by a 5.3% m/m decline in dairy prices. ANZ said global dairy markets continue to face heavy pressure from strong milk production growth across most major exporting countries, with butter prices experiencing the sharpest adjustment. Butter prices slumped 16.9% m/m, underscoring the scale of oversupply in that segment.In contrast, the meat and wool world price index rose 1.2% m/m, extending gains for a fourth consecutive month and reaching a fresh record high. Tight supply conditions in the U.S. beef market have been the dominant driver, while lamb and wool prices have also benefited from supportive demand and constrained availability. Despite the strength in meat and fibre, the broader world price index has rolled over since peaking in May and is now 2.4% lower year on year across 2025.The picture was more challenging in local currency terms. The NZD Commodity Price Index fell 3.9% m/m in December, as a firmer New Zealand dollar amplified the decline in global prices when converted into NZD. While the NZD strengthened late in the year, ANZ noted that the currency weakened overall through 2025, helping local prices outperform global benchmarks over a longer horizon. As a result, the NZD index is down 1.5% y/y, a smaller decline than the 2.4% y/y fall in the world price index.The divergence across commodity groups comes as New Zealand’s domestic economy shows early signs of recovery. Recent business surveys point to improving confidence, firmer hiring and stabilising activity as lower interest rates begin to flow through. While ongoing dairy weakness remains a headwind for rural incomes, resilience in meat and wool prices, combined with a broader economic lift, should help cushion the impact on growth into early 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Reuters: drones hit two tankers in Black SeaShips were bound for terminal loading most Kazakh crudeKazakhstan output down ~35% Jan 1–12 on constraintsCPC exports continue via one mooring after prior damageWar-risk insurance costs nearly doubled after strikesReuters reported that drones struck two oil tankers in the Black Sea on Tuesday as they sailed toward a key Russian-coast terminal that handles the bulk of Kazakhstan’s crude exports, underscoring rising security risks for energy flows through the region and adding fresh uncertainty to global supply.According to Reuters, the vessels were heading to the Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka terminal near Novorossiysk, a loading point for roughly 80% of Kazakh oil shipped to international markets, as well as some Russian crude. One of the tankers was chartered by Chevron, which said all crew were safe, the vessel remained stable, and it was proceeding to a safe port while the company coordinated with the operator and authorities.The strikes come against a backdrop of sharply reduced Kazakh output. Reuters cited a source familiar with the data saying Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate production fell about 35% between January 1 and January 12 versus December’s average, largely due to export constraints via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said CPC continued exporting via one mooring, highlighting reduced operational flexibility after earlier damage.Reuters noted the terminal itself previously came under attack on November 29, when a Ukrainian drone hit one of CPC’s three main moorings. Kyiv has targeted Russian energy infrastructure to pressure Moscow over the war in Ukraine, although it was not immediately clear who was behind Tuesday’s tanker strikes. Ukraine did not comment, and CPC declined to comment, Reuters said.The incident also reverberated through shipping markets. Reuters reported that war-risk insurance costs for ships sailing to the Black Sea nearly doubled following the attacks, raising transportation costs and potentially discouraging some operators. Russian Black Sea terminals handle more than 2% of global crude, and the waterway is also critical for grain shipments, meaning any escalation can have broader commodity-market implications beyond oil.Company statements cited by Reuters indicated both affected vessels suffered limited damage, fires (where reported) were quickly extinguished, and there were no reports of pollution, yet the episode reinforces the fragility of export infrastructure and the risk premium embedded in Black Sea energy logistics. ---The attacks add a near-term risk premium to Black Sea crude flows by lifting war-risk insurance costs, increasing voyage uncertainty and raising the hurdle rate for tanker availability. Even without sustained physical damage, higher costs and operational caution can slow loadings and tighten prompt supply, particularly for CPC-linked grades.More structurally, the reliance on a reduced number of functioning moorings at the CPC terminal leaves Kazakh exports vulnerable to further disruption. With Kazakhstan’s output already down sharply, any additional outage, whether from security incidents, weather or maintenance, could temporarily remove meaningful barrels from the seaborne market, amplifying price sensitivity despite what otherwise seems to be ample global supply. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Barkin downplays importance of any single Fed meetingSays policy mistakes can be corrected over timeCPI data seen as encouragingShelter inflation still distorted by data gapsTariffs remain longer-term inflation riskRichmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin struck a pragmatic tone on monetary policy decision-making on Tuesday, playing down the importance of any single Fed meeting and pointing to encouraging inflation data alongside lingering tariff-related cost risks.Speaking after earlier remarks defending central bank independence and highlighting stable macro conditions, Barkin said no individual policy meeting is decisive, noting that the Federal Reserve can adjust course if needed. “No one meeting matters that much,” he said, adding that if policymakers “get it wrong,” they retain the ability to correct at subsequent meetings, a signal of confidence in the Fed’s gradual, data-dependent approach.On inflation, Barkin said the latest consumer price data was “encouraging,” reinforcing the view that price pressures are not re-accelerating. However, he cautioned that some inflation components remain difficult to assess in real time. In particular, Barkin said shelter inflation continues to be biased by incomplete data, citing the absence of October inputs as a distortion that complicates interpretation of underlying trends.Barkin also offered updated colour on how businesses are responding to trade policy uncertainty. He said firms now appear to have greater confidence in understanding the likely outcomes of tariff policy compared with last April, suggesting that uncertainty around trade measures has eased somewhat even if costs have not disappeared.That said, Barkin warned tariffs remain a source of inflationary pressure over time. While the timing and magnitude of those effects remain unclear, he said there is still some residual cost pressure working its way through supply chains, reinforcing the need for caution when assessing the medium-term inflation outlook.Taken together, Barkin’s comments reinforce the Fed’s broader message of flexibility and patience: inflation appears to be cooling, businesses are adapting to policy uncertainty, and policymakers see room to adjust without overreacting to any single data point or meeting. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin above USD94,725, best for beleaguered crypto since 17 November last year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Reuters Tankan shows manufacturers’ mood slips to six-month lowManufacturing index falls to +7 from +10 in DecemberMaterials sectors (oil/ceramics, steel, chemicals) lead declinesNon-manufacturers dip slightly to +32 from +33April outlook diverges: manufacturers improve, services worsenJapanese business sentiment softened at the start of the year, with manufacturers’ confidence slipping to a six-month low in January as weaker demand from major economies weighed on materials-heavy sectors, according to the latest Reuters Tankan poll.The monthly survey, which tracks the Bank of Japan’s closely watched quarterly tankan, showed the manufacturers’ sentiment index fell to +7 in January from +10 in December, marking a second consecutive decline while remaining in positive territory. The index is calculated as the share of optimistic responses minus pessimistic ones, meaning readings above zero still indicate net optimism.The pullback was most pronounced in materials industries. The oil and ceramics sector recorded one of the steepest drops, falling sharply to zero, while steel sentiment deteriorated further into deeply negative territory and chemicals confidence also eased. Companies cited lacklustre demand conditions across key export markets, with one steelmaker pointing to weaker Chinese orders for automotive-linked goods. Others flagged softer consumer spending in the U.S. and China, while some manufacturers pointed to the drag from tariffs on exports.By contrast, the auto and electronic machinery sectors saw only modest declines, suggesting parts of Japan’s industrial base are holding up better than materials producers exposed to the global cycle.Sentiment among non-manufacturers edged slightly lower, with the index slipping to +32 from +33. The decline was led by wholesalers and retailers, though other areas such as information services, transport and real estate improved. Some service-sector firms also referenced a fall in Chinese tourism linked to a bilateral diplomatic row, with one department store manager reporting a sharp drop in foreign tourist sales. Others, however, said the broader inbound demand backdrop remained resilient.Looking ahead, companies see a divergence in momentum. Manufacturers expect sentiment to improve to +10 by April, while non-manufacturers anticipate conditions deteriorating to +26, pointing to rising caution in the services economy even as factories look for a cyclical rebound.For the Bank of Japan, the results underscore a mixed picture: manufacturing is still positive but losing steam, while domestic-facing sectors remain supported yet increasingly vulnerable to trade and tourism shocks.---With a weak yen, be careful of intervention risk:USD/JPY is surging still. Do we pencil in January 19 for Bank of Japan intervention? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:US eases H200 export rules to case-by-case reviewThird-party testing and supply certifications requiredShift from blanket denial to conditional pathwayChina signals purchases only in “special circumstances”Nvidia shares edge higher, uncertainty remainsThe United States has taken a calibrated step toward easing export restrictions on advanced AI semiconductors, revising licensing rules to potentially allow shipments of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China under tightly controlled conditions.A final rule published by the Bureau of Industry and Security at the Department of Commerce shifts policy from a blanket presumption of denial to a case-by-case license review for certain advanced computing commodities exported to China and Macau. The rule covers Nvidia’s H200 and equivalent chips, as well as some less-advanced products, subject to strict verification requirements.Before any exports can proceed, shipments must undergo independent third-party testing in the United States to confirm technical AI performance characteristics. Exporters must also certify that there is sufficient domestic supply of the chips, that production for China will not divert foundry capacity away from U.S. end-users, and that recipients have demonstrated adequate security procedures.The change marks a notable adjustment in Washington’s approach to AI chip controls, creating a narrow pathway for exports while preserving safeguards designed to prevent technology diversion. The Commerce Department emphasised that the rule does not represent a broad reopening, but rather a more targeted licensing framework with multiple checkpoints.Markets read the move as modestly supportive for Nvidia, with shares rising about 0.5% on the day. However, the upside was capped by signals from China that access to H200 chips will be approved only under “special circumstances,” including limited use cases such as university research. Officials have yet to define the criteria, leaving demand uncertain.The result is a policy tug-of-war: Washington outlines a conditional route for exports, while Beijing signals selective gatekeeping on the buyer side. For Nvidia and the broader AI chip sector, the development reduces outright downside risk but keeps shipment volumes, timing, and revenue contribution highly uncertain. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Barkin says central bank independence delivers better outcomesDeclines comment on political pressure facing the FedInflation above target but not acceleratingUnemployment ticking up but remains containedBusinesses showing less appetite to pass through pricesRichmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin reinforced the importance of central bank independence on Tuesday, saying countries that safeguard monetary policy autonomy tend to achieve better economic outcomes, as political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve remains in focus.Speaking in remarks reported by Reuters, Barkin declined to comment directly on recent political developments surrounding the Fed, referring instead to “stuff that’s been in the news.” His comments came after the Trump administration threatened potential legal action against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, an episode Powell has described as intimidation aimed at influencing monetary policy.While avoiding the political controversy, Barkin said the economic evidence is clear that independent central banks deliver stronger and more stable outcomes. His remarks add to a growing chorus of Fed and other global central bank officials publicly defending institutional credibility and policy autonomy.On the economic outlook, Barkin struck a measured tone. He said U.S. inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but does not currently appear to be accelerating, suggesting price pressures are easing gradually rather than re-intensifying. He also noted that unemployment has ticked higher but does not appear to be moving “out of control,” indicating continued resilience in the labour market.Barkin highlighted a shift in business behaviour compared with early 2025. Unlike the first quarter of last year, he said he is no longer hearing strong conviction among businesses about passing higher costs through to consumers via price increases. That observation points to reduced pricing power and supports the view that inflation pressures may continue to cool without further aggressive policy tightening.Taken together, Barkin’s comments reinforce the Federal Reserve’s prevailing message that monetary policy is well positioned, with inflation gradually easing and labour market risks contained. They also underscore a broader institutional stance: that maintaining central bank independence is critical not just for credibility, but for sustaining favourable long-term economic outcomes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Via oilprice.com---Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude +0.42 mn barrelsDistillates +0.13 mn bblsGasoline +0.24 mnThis data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).It's a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agenciesWhereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week's levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the APII posted yesterday on the tug of war in oil:Oil rises as geopolitics clash with new supply; Iran tensions vs. Venezuela exportsIn brief:Oil settles at seven-week highs, extending mid-January rallyIran export risks support prices amid protest crackdownVenezuela supply return caps upsideRussia, Azerbaijan add background supply riskVolatility dominates despite surplus outlookOil climbed as Iran-related supply risks outweighed expectations of returning Venezuelan barrels, gains seen since mid-last week.SO far the tensions surrounding Iran are winning out, supporting oil prices. In the chart at the top of this post I added a 'resistance' line based on just an eyeballing of the daily candles cahrt. I suspect that, at the lest, we'll have some price work to do before it can head too much higher. If Trump launches an attack against Iran, which seems likely given he going backwards on domestic policy and popularity (attacking someone is about all he is able to get done right now), that should be enough for a renewed pop higher. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. dollar is pushing higher, led by USDJPY, which is up 0.55% and once again setting the tone for the broader FX market. In the video above, I walk through the technical picture for USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and AUDUSD, focusing on bias, risk, and targets.USDJPYUSDJPY is making another run above the January 2025 high at 158.86, extending beyond the key swing zone between 158.55 and 158.86. Earlier today, the market successfully tested the lower edge of that zone, giving buyers the green light to push higher.That swing area now becomes the risk level for longs — stay above it and the bias remains bullish; move below it and buyers lose control. If price continues higher, the next upside target comes in near the psychological 160.00 level.GBPUSDGBPUSD has slipped back below both the 200-hour moving average at 1.3465 and the 100-hour moving average at 1.3444, shifting short-term momentum back toward the sellers.As long as price stays below the 100-hour MA, downside risk remains. A more conservative risk level for shorts is the 200-hour MA. On the downside, the next target sits in the 1.3391 to 1.3404 swing zone, which is reinforced by the 200-day moving average at 1.3390, making this a high-interest support area.USDCHFUSDCHF has pushed to a new short-term high, testing resistance near 0.8017, the highs from both yesterday and Friday. A sustained break above this level opens the door toward the 0.8047 trendline, taking price to its highest levels since December 10.On the downside, 0.8000 now becomes the key risk level. It is a natural psychological level and has acted as both support and resistance multiple times in the past, making it a critical short-term pivot.AUDUSDAUDUSD attempted to rally earlier in the session but stalled at resistance near 0.6727. That failure triggered a sharp move lower, breaking through both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6700, and accelerating selling pressure down to a session low of 0.6674.The next key downside target sits at the 61.8% retracement of the December 18 rally at 0.66587, a level that also lines up with multiple prior swing highs and lows. A break below there would shift focus to the 0.6625–0.6635 support zone.For buyers to regain short-term control, price would need to move back above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6700. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump is speaking and with so many balls in the air, his comments are of market interest.Says we have a bad Fed Chair. Will pick a new Fed Chair in the next few weeks. On Iran:When asked about hell on the way to Iran, says you are going to have to figure it outHe says it is a good idea if Americans about away from Iran.Says Canada wants a USMCA Trump says we don't need it. (of course it was an agreement he made with Canada)Crude oil prices are higher. The current price is trading at $61.19. That is up about $1.70 or 2.82%Trump says he would like the price of oil at $53 a barrel. Last week Pres.Trump attempted to rally U.S. oil companies to invest heavily in Venezuelan oil extraction, offering assurances and pushing a big investment plan — but executives were cautious, especially ExxonMobil, and no major commitments were secured. Trump has since hinted at shifting support toward companies more willing to engage (like Chevron), and the broader strategy remains highly complex and contentious. Oil companies would need higher oil prices to justify the cost of extracting oil. In other news, The US treasury auctioned off $22 billion of 30 year bondsThe auction was met with strong demand:WI level at the time of the auction was 4.833%.High-yield came in at 4.825%Tail -0.8 basis points versus 6 month average of +0.5 basis pointsBid to cover 2.42x vs 6 month average 2.34XDirects 21.3% vs 6 month average of 23.9%Indirects 66.77% versus 6 month average of 63.7%Dealers 11.9% versus 6 month average of 12.4%.A look around other markets shows the major stock indices are lower. Yesterday the Dow and the S&P closed at record levels.Dow industrial average -0.78%S&P index -0.37% NASDAQ index -0.21%Yields are moving lower helped by the strong auction:2-year yield 3.524%, -2.3 basis points5 year yield 3.737%, -2.9 basis points10 year yield 4.167%, -2.0 basis points30 year yield 4.828%, -1.2 basis pointsGold is trading down $-5 or -0.11% at $4593. That comes after trading to a new record high of $4634.58 earlier today. Silver is still up $1.99 or 2.36% and $87.08. It traded to a new all-time high price earlier today at $89.11. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem has laid out his baseline scenario for 2026: the U.S. economy could grow at or above-potential, the labor market should stabilise around current levels, and the central bank has likely reached the neutral level.Musalem’s comments suggests that he's satisfied with the current restrictive-to-neutral policy and doesn't see the need for faster easing without more labour market deterioration or bigger than expected moderation in inflation. He sees "robust" economy fueled by two major tailwinds: fiscal stimulus and lagged impact of rate cuts. While Musalem finds recent data "encouraging," he warns that inflation is still closer to 3% than the Fed’s 2% target. He expects goods and housing inflation to ease this year but warned that if service-inflation proved to be sticky, the Fed may have to hold rates higher for longer.He described the labor market as "cooling in an orderly way." He added that the US may need to add 30,000 to 80,000 jobs per month to keep the unemployment rate stable. He sees the current unemployment rate around its neutral level which shouldn't put upward pressure on inflation. He justified his support for the December rate cut as a preemptive strike to prevent the labor market from cooling too much.The most significant takeaway for markets is Musalem’s view that policy is "right around neutral" and that there is "little reason for further easing" in the near term. He's been holding this neutral/hawkish stance since last year.Musalem also added that he doesn't expect the Fed's reaction function to change much under the new chair, given the breadth of opinions among the 19 policymakers. In fact, even if we get a lackey as the next Fed chair, he won't be able to cut rates without good reasons as decisions are made on a majority basis. Moreover, following the recent events with the DOJ and all the constant attacks from Trump, there are good chances that Powell decides to remain on the Fed board until 2028. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trump said on Truth Social that all the meetings with Iran's officials have been cancelled and exhorted the Iranian people to keep protesting because help was on its way.For some context, the protests in Iran represent one of the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic's authority in decades. The unrest was ignited by a catastrophic currency collapse, with the rial plummeting to over 1.4 million per USD, and a sharp hike in fuel prices. However, the protests quickly evolved into a broad rejection of the leadership.Just yesterday we got reports from Axios that Trump was floating the idea of outright strikes to weaken the Iranian regime, although it was also followed by less aggressive plans. Trump has also threatened to impose 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.It looks like the US President wants to fully take advantage of the protests to either overthrow the current regime or force them to sign deals on US terms.Trump's post triggered some risk aversion in the market with US stocks falling to session lows, crude oil extending gains and US dollar erasing earlier losses.On the daily chart above, we can see that the focus switched pretty quickly from Venezuela to Iran. Crude oil futures weakened following the capture of Maduro but then started to edge higher as the protests in Iran intensified and the US promised support to Iranian people.The price broke out of a major falling channel and rose above the key 60.50 swing level. There's no strong resistance until the 66.00 handle now. All eyes are on the US and Iran now as a military action would trigger a strong rally in oil prices and potentially a broad wave of risk aversion. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

August New Home sales 0.800MOctober New home sales 0.737M vs 0.7200 estimateSeptember new home sales was 0.738MThe months' supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent (±15.3 percent)* below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months.Median new-home price: $392,300, down 3.3% from September and 8.0% lower than October 2024, showing clear cooling in typical home prices.Average new-home price: $498,000, up 3.0% from September but still 4.6% below a year ago, reflecting a mix of higher-priced homes without reversing the broader downtrend.Price trend: Year-over-year declines in both median and average prices confirm housing disinflation is continuing.Macro impact: Cooling home prices reduce shelter inflation pressure, supporting lower long-term yields and giving the Fed more room to stay patient on rate cuts.The data is from October. The last I checked, it is January. The New-home sales data is still delayed because of the lingering effects of the 2025 U.S. government shutdown and the resulting backlog at the Census Bureau. This gap is a direct result of the shutdown halting data collection and reporting operations for several weeks. To fill that void, some third-party estimates (like the MBA Builder Application Survey) have been used, but the official Census Bureau figures remain unpublished for those months.President Trump recently announced a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with the goal of pushing mortgage rates lower and improving housing affordability. Rather than the Federal Reserve buying bonds, this plan uses the large balance sheets and liquidity of the two government-sponsored enterprises to create demand for MBS, which tends to raise bond prices and reduce yields, and in theory can pull mortgage rates down modestly. The directive has already contributed to mortgage rates dipping below 6% — a level not seen in several years — providing some immediate relief to borrowers and potential refinance candidates. While this move can narrow spreads and support rate declines in the short term, its overall impact may be limited because $200 billion represents a small fraction of the much larger MBS market. The effect is likely to be more modest than the Federal Reserve’s massive bond-buying programs during the pandemic, which drove rates sharply lower. Moreover, long-term results depend on execution, timing of purchases, and broader economic conditions.Existing home sales data for December will be released tomorrow. The November report showed 4.13M up from 4.10M in the prior month. The estimate is 4.20M. Looking at the data since 2023, the data is fluctuating up and down with a high of 4.46M and a low of 3.85M. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The US stock market unveiled a mixed tapestry today, with significant variances across sectors driving market dynamics. As financial giants felt the heat, the technology sector, led by AMD and Google, displayed notable resilience.Sector OverviewFinancial Sector: The financial sector experienced pressure, especially in credit services. Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) fell significantly, down 2.59% and 2.86% respectively. In contrast, banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) showed modest gains of 0.31%, offering a glimmer of hope.Technology Sector: Tech stocks had a varied performance. Nvidia (NVDA) was slightly down by 0.08%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged 4.84%, reflecting robust investor confidence. Google parent company Alphabet (GOOG) rose 1.09%, buoying the communication services segment.Consumer Sectors: Within consumer cyclicals, Amazon (AMZN) declined by 0.52%, mirroring a cautious stance. Meanwhile, in consumer electronics, Apple (AAPL) dipped by 0.38% amid mixed signals.Energy Sector: The energy sector enjoyed steady gains, with ExxonMobil (XOM) up 0.92% and Chevron (CVX) increasing 0.86%, reflecting sustained demand and positive sentiment.Market Mood and TrendsThe mood oscillated between cautious optimism and apprehensive reflection. The underperformance in credit services invites careful monitoring, suggesting potential vulnerabilities in consumer credit markets. Despite this, technology's upward momentum, led by AMD and Google, indicates a pocket of robust investor enthusiasm and confidence.Strategic RecommendationsConsider Increasing Exposure to Energy: With ongoing positive performance and geopolitical factors influencing energy dynamics, bolstering energy sector exposure may be prudent.Monitor Credit Services and Tech: Keep an eye on credit service stocks for potential recovery, while exploiting tech resilience by targeting high performers like AMD and Google.Diversification is Key: Given the mixed narrative, diversification across sectors remains a strategic maneuver to mitigate risks and capture opportunities.In conclusion, while the financial sector struggles with volatility, the tech industry continues to promulgate growth narratives. Investors are urged to stay alert to unfolding trends and align portfolio strategies with emerging market dynamics. For continuous updates and expert insights, visit InvestingLive.com ?. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The US Core CPI surprised to the downside today giving silver another boost as the market firmed up rate cuts expectations. Last month's report was taken with a pinch of salt given the shutdown related issues, but today's report confirmed the easing seen in the prior month.Silver continues to benefit from strong tailwinds like geopolitical tensions, Fed rate cuts bets and renewed attacks on the Fed independence. In fact, just yesterday silver jumped to new all-time highs after the news of the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the Federal Reserve in a move seen as a pretext to give Trump a reason to fire Fed Chair Powell "for cause" in case he's indicted.On the daily chart above, we can see how yesterday's breakout opened the door for much higher prices as we got out of a consolidation. It remains a buy-on-dips market given the lack of bearish catalysts.Tomorrow, we have a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs and that could pose a risk for the upside in case tariffs are struck down. In fact, such a decision would ease a lot stagflationary risks and raise global growth speculations, likely leading to better economic data down the road.I would expect a selloff in silver and gold in the short term on such a positive development even though Trump's officials have already stated that they have a plan to put tariffs back on using other means. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

USDCAD moved lower today after the U.S. CPI report came in slightly softer than expected, adding pressure to the dollar and reinforcing the short-term downside bias in the pair. From a technical perspective, the pair fell back below its 100-hour moving average at 1.38706, giving sellers another modest but important victory in the near term. That setback comes after a strong rebound since December 26, when USDCAD climbed from a low of 1.36415 to a peak at 1.3917 on Friday. That rally had briefly pushed the pair above its 100-day moving average for the first time since December 5 (currently at 1.39028), but dollar selling on Monday — driven in part by weekend news of a U.S. Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Powell — forced the pair back below that longer-term benchmark. The failed breakout has tilted the short-term technical bias back toward the downside. In the video above, I walk through the key technical levels that are shaping near-term price action.Fundamentally, the CPI report reinforced the idea that inflation pressures are easing, but still remains above the Fed target at 2.0%. Headline CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, while the year-on-year rate held steady at 2.7%. The more important signal came from core inflation, which increased just 0.2% on the month versus expectations for 0.3%, with the annual core rate at 2.6%, below the 2.7% forecast and unchanged from the prior reading. Even the Fed’s closely watched supercore measure — services excluding housing — cooled, slipping to 0.29% from 0.35% previously, pointing to softer underlying services inflation.Markets reacted in classic dovish fashion. Rate-cut expectations for year-end increased from around 52 basis points to roughly 57 basis points, pushing U.S. yields lower, weakening the dollar, lifting equities, and extending gains in precious metals. The 10-year Treasury yield is down about two basis points on the day. Importantly, the data also confirms the disinflation trend seen in November, which many had initially dismissed due to government shutdown distortions. While the report alone is unlikely to force an immediate shift in Fed policy, the combination of cooling inflation and a still-resilient economy remains supportive for risk assets, assuming no new political or geopolitical shocks emerge.That view aligns with comments from Wall Street Journal Fed-watcher Nick Timiraos, who said the December CPI report is not enough to move the Federal Reserve off its current wait-and-see stance. He noted that officials want clearer and more sustained evidence that inflation is leveling off and heading lower before resuming rate cuts, meaning a couple of softer prints will not be sufficient. With the next FOMC meeting at the end of January, policymakers are in no rush to react.Timiraos also reminded readers that the Fed cut rates at its last three meetings, bringing the policy rate to a 3.5% to 3.75% range, not because inflation had been beaten, but because officials were increasingly concerned about the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the labor market. Looking ahead, further rate cuts will require either new signs of labor-market weakness or more convincing evidence that inflation is fading, a process that could take several more months of data to confirm.res. Trump is out with his take. Of course, he bash Powell although of course he denied he had anything to do with the investigation of the Fed Chair: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.7%CPI M/M +0.3% vs 0.3% expectedPrior +0.3%Core CPI Y/Y +2.6% vs +2.7% expected Prior +2.6%Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% expectedPrior +0.2%US Supercore CPI M/M +0.29% vs +0.35% priorWe have a dovish surprise here as Core CPI figures came on the lower end of the forecasts. The market was pricing 52 bps of easing by year-end but that has increased to 57 bps now.In the markets, we have of course a classic dovish reaction with US stocks rising, US dollar falling, precious metals increasing gains and US yields dropping.The data confirms the easing seen in November when the much lower than expected numbers were taken with a pinch of salt due to shutdown related issues.In the bigger picture, this is not going to change much for the Fed, but with falling inflation and strenghtening economy, it should support the risk sentiment going forward unless Trump throws one of his bombs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

U.S. private employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per weekThe pace of job gains edged up from the prior week (revised to 11.K from 11.0K last week) . These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data are added.Below is a look at the trend since October. The values are near recent highs suggesting growth but modest growth. The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP's finely tuned, high-frequency data. The data are seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends.The NER Pulse, including 12 weeks of historical data, publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except weeks when ADP Research publishes the monthly National Employment Report which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month.Recall that the monthly report ADP National Employment report for the month of December showed a gain of 41K. That compared to 50K from the BLS employment change (vs 60K estimate). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USD higher vs the JPY (+0.46%) and little changed vs the EUR and GBP to start the US session. The CPI data will take focus when it is released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectation is for the headline to rise by 0.3% versus 0.3% last month. The core is also expected to rise by 0.3%. Last month the court rose by 0.2%. The YoY levels are expected to come in at 2.7% for the headline and 2.7% for the core (up from 2.6%). Inflation remains a sticky. US new-home sales will be released at 10 AM with expectations of 0.720 million versus 0.800 million last month. The U.S. Treasury will auction off 30 year bonds at 1 PM.US morning markets open under a cloud of geopolitical and earnings riskUS markets begin Tuesday’s session with energy markets in focus and bank earnings setting the tone, as investors digest the drone attacks of tankers around Black Sea and the official kickoff of the Q4 earnings season.Overnight headlines confirmed that four oil tankers were struck near the Black Sea CPC terminal by drones. The CPC terminal is a key conduit for Kazakhstan’s crude exports into global markets, and the growing pattern of strikes has pushed Brent and WTI more than $1 higher as traders price in potential supply disruption and widening geopolitical risk.The tanker incidents arrive as Washington continues to weigh military and covert options against Iran, keeping energy markets on edge. While no formal decision has been announced, the combination of Black Sea risks and Middle East tensions has created a clear upward bias in crude, reinforcing inflation-sensitive positioning ahead of US CPI later this week.Earnings season kicks off — US banks in the spotlightToday marks the official start of Q4 earnings season, with US financials leading the charge.The focus is squarely on the health of the US consumer, loan growth, credit quality, and net interest margins as the Federal Reserve pivots toward an easier policy stance. JPMorgan and Bank of New York Mellon, have announced this morning. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) EPS $4.63 versus $4.97 expected (MISS), revenue $45.8 billion versus $46.11 billion expected (MISS). Shares of JPM are up marginally despite the miss. Yesterday the shares fell -1.43%.Bank of New York Mellon (BNY): EPS $2.02 versus $1.91 expected (BEAT). Revenues came in at $16.0 billion versus $14.72 billion expected (BEAT). Shares are trading down 1.3% in premarket tradingDelta Air Lines (DAL): EPS $1.64 versus $1.53 expected (BEAT). Revenues $5.19 billion versus $5.14 billion expected (BEAT). Shares are trading down -5.11% despite the beat.Later this week, Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley follow, giving investors a full read on how large financial institutions are navigating slowing growth, shifting rate expectations, and geopolitical risk.Big tech spotlight later this week: TSMC on ThursdayOutside the banks, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor) is one of the most important earnings events of the week. TSMC reports Thursday before the US open, and its guidance will be critical for:AI-driven chip demandGlobal tech supply chainsSemiconductor capex trendsGiven its central role in Nvidia, Apple, and the global AI ecosystem, TSMC’s outlook has the power to move both tech stocks and global risk sentiment.Key economic events for the rest of the weekOther economic releases scheduled this week include"Wednesday – January 14Core PPI m/m: 0.2%PPI m/m: 0.2%Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.4%Retail Sales m/m: 0.5% vs 0.0% priorThese releases will show whether consumer demand is holding up and whether pipeline inflation pressures are easing or accelerating after CPI.Thursday – January 15US Weekly Jobless Claims: 215K vs 208K priorEmpire State Manufacturing Index: 0.8 vs -3.9 priorPhilly Fed Manufacturing Index: -1.6 vs -10.2 priorUK GDP m/m: 0.1% vs -0.1% priorThursday will be a key growth check for both US manufacturing and the UK economy.Friday – January 16BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks — markets watching for rate-cut guidance and UK inflation commentaryUS stocks are marginally lower to start the dayUS major indices the futures proxies trading lowerDow industrial average -92 pointsS&P index -NASDAQ index -43 point This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq Technical Analysis: The compression points to big moves once we get a breakoutUS small business optimism rises to a 3-month high on expected better economic conditionsWhat is the distribution of institutional forecasts for the US CPI?What Is MT4 – A Beginner’s Guide to MetaTrader 4 TradingCrude oil extends gains as the risk of US strikes on Iran raises the geopolitical premiumReminder: Earnings season kicks off in Wall Street todayUSDJPY rises to the highest level since July 2024 as snap election renewes fiscal fearsUS inflation in December likely to have rebounded sharply - Morgan StanleyWhat are the main events for today?FX option expiries for 13 January 10am New York cutSilver Technical Analysis NowJapan economy minister Kiuchi defends government's fiscal policy pathDollar's safe haven status continues to lose appeal - SocGenJapan PM Takaichi reportedly states intention to dissolve parliament's lower houseUSD/JPY tests one-year high as yen struggles drag on in the new yearIt's been a pretty boring session in terms of news flow and market moves. The only notable news we got was early in the session when it was reported that Japanese PM Takaichi has conveyed to a ruling party executive of her intention to dissolve parliament's lower house. That could set up for a snap election in either early or the middle of February. The next ordinary Diet session is scheduled for 23 January and that is the timing in which Takaichi is reported to be making this call. This is just a confirmation of similar reports we got on Friday,In terms of market moves, it's been pretty quiet all around. Crude oil has been the only outlier as tensions between US and Iran continue to increase the geopolitical risk premium and drive prices higher. Just yesterday, we got reports that Trump considered strikes on Iran and late in the evening he threatened 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.Other than that, not much has happened as traders await the US CPI report at 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs 2.7% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs 2.6% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior.The Fed signalled a pause at the last policy decision by adding the line saying "in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks".As a reminder, the Fed projected just one rate cut this year, while the market is still betting on two, with the first one expected in June. The latest NFP report saw the unemployment rate falling to 4.4% vs 4.6% prior. The data was overall good and reaffirmed the Fed's patient stance.Barring another notable weakening in the labour market, inflation data is what is likely to determine the extent of Fed's policy easing this year. In the bigger picture, the Fed's reaction function remains dovish, so we would need strong reasons for them to consider rate hikes. For now, the worst case scenario is that they hold rates higher for longer. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.