The US launched military operations in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Images from the country showed multiple strikes and fires. US President Trump announced that Madura was captured.An executive from state oil company PDVSA said the La Guaira port was severely damaged but that oil facilities were unscathed. Trump We will wait to hear what Trump has to say about the plans for what comes next but in December he talked about the 2007 seizure of some assets from American oil companies and that his intention was "getting land, oil rights, whatever we had" returned."They took it away because we had a president that maybe wasn't watching. But they're not going to do that again.""We want it back," he said. "They took our oil rights — we had a lot of oil there. As you know they threw our companies out, and we want it back."Russia responded to the reports saying that if actions took place "constitute an unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an independent state".US Senator Mike Lee said he spoke with Secretary of State Marco Rubio who said "Maduro has been arrested by US personnel to stand trial on criminal charges in the United States, and that the kinetic action we saw tonight was deployed to protect and defend those executing the arrest warrant."The EU foreign affairs representative Kaja Kallas said:I have spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and our Ambassador in Caracas. The EU is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela. The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. Under all circumstances, the principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected. We call for restraint. The safety of EU citizens in the country is our top priority.For markets, this might be a short-lived event but that could change quickly depending on how Venezuela responds. My guess is that America had local help and there is some kind of coup underway, otherwise Maduro will be replaced by deputies. In terms of markets, Venezuela has massive oil reserves but its production and exports are less than 1 million barrels per day and have been disrupted recently anyway. What could be more concerning is the message this sends in Latin America and how China and Russia respond. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe stock market witnessed a notable rally today, with the semiconductor sector leading the charge. Key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged by 2.02% and 3.63% respectively, reflecting robust investor confidence in tech hardware advancements.? Technology: Broad gains were observed with companies like Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir (PLTR) climbing up by 1.44% and 1.12%.? Consumer Cyclical: The sector stayed bullish with leaders such as Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) rising by 0.84% and 1.80% respectively.? Financial: It was a mixed day in financials, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) posting a modest gain of 0.14%, whereas Visa (V) slightly fell by 0.58%.? Healthcare: Sectors like healthcare showed minor setbacks with Eli Lilly (LLY) slipping by 0.46%.Market Mood and TrendsOverall, the market sentiment was bullish, primarily fueled by the impressive performance in the tech industry. The ongoing investor optimism in tech upgrades and innovations propelled this momentum. On the other hand, caution remains in the financial sector, reflecting uncertainties around economic policies.Strategic RecommendationsAmidst this surge in the tech sector, investors are recommended to keep a balanced approach toward their portfolios. Here are some strategic insights:✨ Focus on Technology: With semiconductors showing strength, tech appears promising for both short-term momentum and long-term growth.? Monitor Financial Sector: Given the mixed performance, it's wise to keep an eye on economic indicators that could shift dynamics within financial stocks.? Diversify Across Sectors: To mitigate risks, diversifying investments can safeguard against potential volatility in the healthcare and consumer defensive sectors.As always, keeping abreast of market data and analyses is crucial for strategic planning. Stay updated with InvestingLive.com for ongoing insights and personalized advice. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The Canadian manufacturing sector remains stuck in the mud as the final Canadian S&P Global survey of manufacturers was released. It’s another soft reading for the Canadian economy, and the details here are painting a stagflationary picture that the Bank of Canada isn't going to like.Here are the details from the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December:48.6 vs 48.4 prior.Output Index: Declined at a quicker rateNew Orders with a 'solid decline'Employment: 11th consecutive month of job shedding.Prices: Selling price inflation hit a six-month high.The report explicitly blames tariffs for driving up prices while simultaneously killing demand. Fortunately, the consumer side of the economy has remained strong as manufacturing gets left behind. A year of prolonged uncertainty around USMCA negotiations isn't going to help.Firms reported that average lead times lengthened because of customs delays, specifically with US imports. Even worse, the uncertainty around trade policy is causing a "general air of uncertainty" that is weighing on output for the year ahead, something that will hit capexPaul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global:“Canada’s manufacturing economy ended the year on a subdued note, with output and new orders both falling again – as they have done in each month of 2025 apart from January. Once again, tariffs remained an important theme amongst PMI survey respondents, with a general air of uncertainty continuing to negatively weigh on current and expected output levels for the year ahead. “This means firms remain naturally cautious, and seeking an operating leanness, either in terms of labour capacity or inventory holdings. Purchasing activity was also cut again in December, although supply-chain delays continue, and the price of inputs shifted higher – which firms once again closely linked to tariffs.” This is a reminder that there are problems in Canadian manufacturing as this survey has been in contraction for 11 straight months, shedding jobs the whole way down. Normally, that would scream for more cuts but look at the inflation component: Input price inflation picked up, and selling price inflation is at a six-month high. Firms are passing those tariff costs right along to consumers.USD/CAD is up 16 pips on the first real trading day of 2026 after falling about 5% last year.Yesterday, I wrote a Canadian dollar outlook for 2026 and later today I will be on BNNBloomberg TV talking about it. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Markets won't be back in full swing until next week but we're getting a bit of a teaser of what the focus will be today already. US futures are running higher but it is once again commodities that are hogging the spotlight, in particular precious metals. After melting higher in December, we're starting to get a taste of that again to start the new year with both gold and silver running up today.The former is up nearly 2% to $4,393 with the latter up over 4% to $74.38. The gains have largely been sustained in European morning trade, with buyers not getting too carried away just yet amid quieter trading. In part, the technicals are also hinting at some near-term resistance perhaps despite all the heat.As indicated by the charts above, both gold and silver are running up to contest their respective 100-hour moving average (red line) now.The silver chart looks more promising after buyers looked to have put on a defense around the 200-hour moving average (blue line) after the latest pullback from the post-Christmas highs.As for gold, its own 200-hour moving average (blue line) now acts as a second near-term resistance layer in limiting the upside. But if buyers can clear the $4,400 mark, it will be a good first step in reestablishing momentum to chase back the recent highs above $4,500 to start the new year.The seasonal strength for gold in December played out accordingly and what is scary is that January promises to be an even stronger seasonal month for the precious metal. You can check out the seasonal pattern here, where January has historically been the best month for gold over the past two decades.If that is any indication for the start of 2026, precious metals might still have scope to travel higher before meeting the point where a rather significant pullback is warranted.Just a word of caution though, we have seen before how seasonal strength in gold is frontrun in December before a less convincing showing in January. That especially since the period after the Covid pandemic. So, just take note of that.Gold put on a solid December showing in gaining 2.5% on the month and is up over 33% since August last year. The numbers for silver look even more absurd with 27% gains in December and it being up 102% since August last year. Is there one last breath to the run before we hit an air pocket? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.2There is a slight negative revision but it still marks an improvement to November, as the UK manufacturing recovery continues at end of 2025. Of note, both output and new orders nudged higher in helping to see the headline reading post a 15-month high. So, that's a positive signal at least. However, there was a mild increase in price pressures as input cost inflation accelerated and output charges rose after declining in November. S&P Global notes that:“Further signs of growth emanated from the UK manufacturing sector before the turn of the year. Output rose for the third successive month and new order intakes improved, albeit slightly, for the first time since September 2024. The domestic market remained a positive spur to growth while new export business, despite having now fallen for almost four consecutive years, took a sizeable stride towards stabilising. "UK manufacturers benefited from several reduced headwinds towards the end of the year, as the negative impacts of the uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget, tariffs and the JLR cyber-attack all moderated. "The start of 2026 will show if growth can be sustained after these temporary boosts subside. The base of the expansion needs to shift more towards rising demand and away from inventory building and backlog clearance. December’s interest rate cut will hopefully play some part in assisting this transition, encouraging manufacturers and their customers to increase spending and investment. Manufacturers remain uncertain on this score, with business optimism falling for the first time in three months in December.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 49.6 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.2The headline reading is a 10-month low as a drop in demand conditions sees German manufacturing activity slump in the final month of last year. Of note, manufacturing output slid into contraction territory for the first time in ten months amid falling export sales. And that led to deeper cuts to employment, purchasing and stocks of inputs.Meanwhile, price pressures remain sticky as goods producers reported a rise in average input prices for the first time in almost three years in December. And panel members also noted that metals were a key driver of cost inflation. So, that's something to take note of at least. HCOB comments that:“Manufacturing had shown hints of recovery earlier in 2025, but the downturn has deepened again in December, driven by investment and consumer goods. The headline PMI index has slipped to its lowest point since last February. The sharp decline in export orders, which have now fallen for the fifth month in a row, points to a very weak start to 2026. “In December, industry was affected not only by weak demand and falling sales prices, but also by rising input prices, which came as a surprise. Over the past few months, these prices had shown signs of stabilising, but an increase is something that has not happened for almost three years. This increase could be due to the higher prices of industrial metals such as copper and tin, which were more expensive in euro terms both compared to the month before and a year ago. “Inventories of purchased goods have fallen at an accelerated pace over the past three months. With orders drying up, companies also want to save on inventories and are reducing them. Stocks of inputs have been falling since the beginning of 2023, which is unusually long, and developments over the past three months give no hope for a turnaround anytime soon. “Staff reductions continued almost unabated in December. Lower investment and cost-saving measures likely drove that trend. The accelerated depreciation option, which has been available since last July, has obviously not yet had any visible effect. With the start of government-backed infrastructure projects and the booming demand for defence equipment, things could look different in 2026. In fact, more companies now expect higher production a year from now.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 47.8The final estimate is little changed from the preliminary reading as France's manufacturing sector saw a modest jump in activity to round off the 2025 year. A strong rise in new export orders was the key reason in underpinning sentiment while employment conditions also returned to growth on the month. Meanwhile, output volumes also came close to stabilising after November's sharp and accelerated contraction. HCOB notes that:"2025 closes on a surprisingly upbeat note. Business conditions in France’s manufacturing sector improved in December, with the PMI climbing back above the growth threshold to reach its highest level in three-and-a-half years. While this should not obscure the structural challenges of recent years, it is nonetheless a step in the right direction. Looking ahead, the sector could benefit from large-scale orders in defence and aerospace, particularly from abroad, as export demand has already shown greater resilience than domestic orders in recent months. Still, persistent political instability and the resulting uncertainty among businesses and households remain key headwinds for future prospects. "After several months of contraction, production at French manufacturing plants broadly stabilised in December. Robust export orders were a key support, even as pressure on supply chains and cautious customer behaviour continue to limit output. Companies have also been meeting orders by drawing down inventories. Purchasing activity, which has been declining since 2022, is now approaching stabilisation, potentially signalling that the sector may have reached its trough heading into next year. "The modest improvement in business conditions has prompted firms to raise prices again after three consecutive months of cuts, likely aimed at stimulating sales. Input cost inflation remains subdued, providing some relief, but margin pressures will persist if demand fails to strengthen further." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.6A fresh drop in output and new orders mark a setback for Italy's manufacturing sector in December. The good news at least is that cost pressures were seen easing but employment conditions also suffered on the month. On the latter, manufacturers made further cutbacks to their workforce numbers, signalling a full quarter of job shedding. Tough. HCOB notes that:“The year concluded with Italian manufacturing sliding back into contraction, as the HCOB Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December, down sharply from November’s 50.6. The latest reading marks the steepest deterioration in operating conditions since March, abruptly ending the brief growth spurt seen in the previous month. The downturn was driven primarily by renewed declines in output and new orders, both of which contracted at the fastest pace in nine months. “Weakness was broad-based, with consumer goods producers reporting the sharpest fall, while challenges in steel and automotive sectors caused notable headwinds. Export orders also slipped, confirming November’s rebound as short-lived, though the pace of decline remained modest compared to earlier in the year. In response to subdued sales, firms scaled back production and continued to trim employment, marking a full quarter of job shedding. Firms also pared back purchasing and ran down input inventories to match weaker production needs. “On the cost front, softer demand helped ease inflationary pressures, with input price growth cooling from November’s threeyear high. This allowed manufacturers to offer slight discounts, although price cuts were only fractional. Despite the challenging backdrop, sentiment improved marginally, supported by plans for new product launches and market expansion in 2026. Overall, December’s data confirm ongoing challenges for Italy’s manufacturing economy, with subdued domestic and external demand likely to weigh on near-term performance, even as firms look ahead with cautious optimism.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 51.5Spain's manufacturing sector slid back into contraction territory for the first time since April amid falls in both output and new orders. Softer demand conditions are to blame but manufacturers also chose not to renew temporary labour contracts, resulting in the biggest monthly fall in employment for two years. HCOB notes that:“Spain’s manufacturing sector saw an unexpected setback in December. Both output and new orders slipped below the growth threshold for the first time since spring. This signifies a shift after a period of steady resilience, suggesting that underlying downward pressures may finally be catching up. Despite this pullback, the industry remains more resilient than its German or French counterparts, though the latest trend raises some concerns. “Whether Europe’s broader industrial malaise will spill over into Spain in a lasting way is still unclear. Our survey responses suggest that production cuts were driven by softer demand and inventory adjustments. Interestingly, business expectations for the months ahead improved despite the current weakness, hinting that December’s decline may be a temporary dip rather than the start of a prolonged downturn. “External demand is becoming a growing risk. Weakness among key European partners, rising fragmentation in global trade, and competitive pressure from China are weighing on export orders. Adding to the challenge is a relatively strong euro, frequently cited as another drag on demand. This combination of headwinds, coupled with a bunch of falling raw material prices in December, has eased input costs but also intensified pricing pressure. Many firms have been forced to cut selling prices to support volumes, an environment that continues to squeeze margins.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Fed might be headed for a more dovish shift in 2026 but Treasury yields may stay underpinned regardless. And that's not a good recipe for risk trades, even if the early positioning flows today might point to a more optimistic picture for equities to start the year. As much as stocks are hoping for another rip higher, the bond market is one to keep an eye out for just in case.So far today, 10-year yields are shooting higher to around 4.18% currently. The high earlier touched 4.195% and that comes close to testing the crucial 4.20% mark - one that has limited the bond selling since September at least.However, 30-year yields in the US have now jumped up to 4.87% today. And that is the highest since early September last year. So, why are the bond vigilantes going back at it again if interest rates are supposed to be coming down?I would argue that a strong reasoning for that is it's all tied to US debt and fiscal considerations. With Trump's administration pushing for a record amount of debt issuance, it continues to flood the market with more bonds. And for one, that brings us to a simple supply versus demand argument in why prices are falling and yields are rising.But amid fiscal worries and the fact that the US is going to keep seeing a high budget deficit, the risk and term premium for holding US debt is going to keep seeing upwards pressure. And that's quite a reasonable argument to imagine given that yields are continuing to push up despite cooling economic data, in particular as reflected in labour market conditions.With 30-year yields potentially slowly creeping back towards the 5% mark, that is one that could start to rile up risk trades once again as we look to start the year. So, don't just think that market sentiment is looking rather easy-going with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Asia being off to a decent start to the new year today. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3%House prices +0.6% vs +1.2% y/y expectedPrior +1.8%It's a soft end to the year with the average house price ending at £271,068 for December. But overall, UK housing market activity has remained resilient all through 2025. One has to remember that household and consumer sentiment in the UK has been relatively subdued for much of the year and that is not to mention that mortgage rates are also still holding well above the Covid pandemic lows.Nationwide notes that:"House prices evolved broadly in line with our expectations. Annual price growth slowed steadily from 4.7% at the end of 2024 to 2.1% in the middle of 2025 and then to 1.8% in November. As a result, prices were close to the all-time high recorded in the summer of 2022 as the year drew to a close."Looking to next year, they see house prices strengthening a little further with expectation that "annual house price growth is to remain broadly in the 2 to 4% range". The reasoning for that being:"The changes to property taxes announced in the Budget are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. The high value council tax surcharge is not being introduced until April 2028 and will apply to less than 1% of properties in England and around 3% in London. The increase in taxes on income from properties may dampen buy-to-let activity further and hold down the supply of new rental properties coming onto the market, which could in turn maintain some upward pressure on private rental growth." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Happy New Year, everyone! I hope you're all still enjoying the holiday break as markets are still more or less sidelined until next week. That is when activity and liquidity will slowly pick back up after the rest period from Christmas to the new year. As such, there aren't any major expiries to take note of today with a lack of interest and appetite with many market players still away. The full list can be seen below.Things will slowly pick up in the week ahead, so don't expect all too much on the expiries board and the relevant impact. Positioning flows to start the year will also be a key consideration for major currencies, so that will be the more pertinent thing to watch out for.But in looking to the early days, a lot of focus will stay on precious metals with gold and silver starting to rally again today. The former is up 1.5% to $4,378 with the latter up 3.9% to around $74.05 currently. So, that will continue to captivate the market's attention for the most part as we look to get things underway in 2026.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Global broker STARTRADER is unveiling a refreshed look and feel as part of its brand repositioning. Since its establishment, the company has been focused on strengthening the trust it has built with clients, partners, and institutional businesses.The repositioning will be reflected in the brand's visual identity. To align with the newly introduced tagline, “Built on Trust. Driven by Growth,” the update introduces a more minimal and refined design direction. With calmer colour palettes and cleaner compositions, the identity now reflects the broker’s commitment to a more confident, composed, and client-centric experience.The mission and vision now also place greater emphasis on people and long-term relationships. Accessibility, transparency, and empowerment are the words that reinforce the trust the brand is rooted in. Of course, the brand image and the product offerings are closely aligned, as it reflects the continuous improvement of STARTRADER’s offerings, an ongoing effort already in motion and one that will continue, ensuring that growth remains grounded in client needs, confidence, and consistency.Internally, the repositioning now empowers teams to deliver consistent and more thoughtful experiences in every interaction. STARTRADER’s people play a central role in bringing the new brand to life through their shared efforts across different departments.As the year unfolds, the evolution of the brand will be witnessed across STARTRADER’s touchpoints, from digital platforms and communications to client and partner engagement and sponsorships with other brands. The positioning highlights the broker’s focus on reinforcing reliability while continuing to expand its global footprint, product offering, and institutional capabilities.About STARTRADERSTARTRADER https://www.startrader.com/ is a global CFD brokerage that provides its clients with opportunities to trade financial instruments online. STARTRADER services both Partners and Retail Clients, who can trade using the MetaTrader Platform, the STAR-APP, and using STAR-COPY. As a global broker, STARTRADER holds a client-first approach as our core principle. Regulated in 5 jurisdictions (ASIC, FSA, FSC, FSCA, and SCA), STARTRADER upholds strong governance alongside sustainable growth. STARTRADER's team comprises dedicated professionals working collaboratively to deliver quality service to its Partners and Clients. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Bank of Korea (BOK) warns weak won risks inflation as USD/KRW diverges from fundamentalsTrump TACO now with pasta - backtracks on Italian pasta tariffs after industry pushbackAustralia manufacturing PMI holds 51.6 in December. Hiring accelerates & inflation firms.ICYMI: China slaps 55% tariff on excess beef imports under new three-year safeguard regimeCanadian dollar outlook 2026: Tariff risks are overblownSummary:Asia-Pacific trade was thin but directional as markets remained in holiday mode ahead of a full return on January 5.The U.S. dollar weakened, while precious metals surged sharply, led by gold and silver.Gold broke above US$4,370, with silver, platinum and palladium all posting strong gains.Australian manufacturing remained in expansion, while South Korea’s factory sector returned to growth in December.FX moves were notable, albeit not in large ranges, with EUR, AUD, GBP and SGD all strengthening against the USD.Professional market participants largely remained in holiday mode, a full return will happen on Monday, 5 January. Liquidity across the Asia-Pacific region was thin, but price action was nonetheless revealing, with clear directional moves emerging in FX and commodities.The U.S. dollar lost ground nearly across the board, while precious metals extended their rally. Gold surged through US$4,370, silver rose close to 3%, and both platinum and palladium gained +3%. The strength in metals was mirrored by gains in the euro, Australian dollar and sterling. Yen traded its way, USD/JPY rose. While volumes were light, the moves had the feel of a broader macro narrative re-asserting itself rather than random holiday noise.Looking ahead to 2026, the dollar appears vulnerable. With U.S. mid-term elections approaching, fiscal policy is likely to turn increasingly expansionary as politicians seek to support growth and equity markets. At the same time, pressure from the White House on the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively is expected to intensify even further. The prospect of a White House-appointed Fed chair later this year only reinforces expectations of a more accommodative policy stance. Against that backdrop, confidence in the dollar could erode further, creating a supportive environment for non-USD assets, particularly precious metals.On the data front, mainland Chinese and New Zealand markets were closed for holidays. In Australia, December manufacturing PMI held steady at 51.6, remaining in expansion territory and confirming modest resilience in the sector.In South Korea, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong warned that excessive won weakness could harm domestic businesses and add to inflation pressures. Separately, manufacturing PMI data showed the sector returning to expansion in December, rising to 50.1 after two months below the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction, helped by a rebound in export demand.Meanwhile, the Singapore dollar strengthened after data showed 2025 GDP growth of a robust 4.8%. Analysts cited a resilient global economy, strong export demand, some front-loading ahead of tariff pressures, and broad-based gains across key sectors for the blockbuster result and have revised forecasts upwards now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said the central bank will review its forward guidance framework on the future path of interest rates.Rhee warned that excessive won weakness could harm domestic businesses and add to inflation pressures.He said USD/KRW levels above 1,400 appear disconnected from Korea’s economic fundamentals.The BOK will not support U.S.-bound investment decisions that could undermine foreign-exchange stability.Authorities are considering expanding special lending programmes for small businesses.Rhee also called for a comprehensive review of pension funds’ overseas investments, citing FX implications.-The Bank of Korea has signalled growing unease over foreign-exchange volatility, with Governor Rhee Chang-yong warning that the current level of won weakness appears increasingly misaligned with South Korea’s economic fundamentals and risks feeding domestic inflation pressures.Rhee said the central bank will review its forward guidance approach on the future path of interest rates, an indication that policymakers are reassessing how monetary policy signals are being interpreted by markets. While he stopped short of committing to a policy shift, the comments suggest heightened sensitivity to financial conditions, particularly currency moves.Rhee highlighted concerns that a persistently weak won could do more harm than good for the domestic economy. He warned that depreciation may weigh on Korean businesses by raising import costs and squeezing margins, while also amplifying inflationary pressures at a time when price stability remains a key policy focus. The governor added that the USD/KRW exchange rate trading above the 1,400 level seems far from the Korean economy’s fundamentals, reinforcing the message that current FX levels may not be justified by underlying conditions.The BOK chief also drew a clear line on cross-border investment decisions, stating that authorities would not agree to U.S.-bound investments if they threaten foreign-exchange stability. The remarks underscore official concern that large-scale capital outflows — particularly by institutional investors, could exacerbate currency volatility.In that context, Rhee said policymakers see a need for a comprehensive review of pension funds’ overseas investment strategies. South Korea’s large pension funds have steadily increased foreign asset exposure in recent years, a trend that can create structural FX selling pressure during periods of market stress.Beyond FX issues, Rhee said the central bank will review the scope for expanding special lending facilities aimed at supporting small businesses, signalling a desire to balance financial stability concerns with targeted economic support.Taken together, the comments point to a more holistic policy stance from the BOK, with FX stability, capital flows and financial conditions now playing a more prominent role alongside traditional inflation and growth considerations.-Earlier from South Korea, in brief:South Korea’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion in December after two months of contraction, helped by a rebound in export demand.The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back above the expansion threshold after holding at 49.4 in the prior two months.New orders grew for the first time in three months, posting the strongest increase since November 2024, with export orders also recovering.Output remained in contraction, though the pace of decline eased compared with November.Input buying picked up sharply, while inventories of finished goods fell at the fastest pace since May 2025.Business optimism jumped to a 3½-year high, driven by expectations of expansion and new product launches, notably in autos and semiconductors.Input cost inflation accelerated, hitting its fastest pace since mid-2022 due to currency weakness, pushing output prices to a nine-month high. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:The U.S. Commerce Department has sharply reduced proposed antidumping duties on Italian pasta imports, stepping back from levels that risked forcing producers out of the U.S. market.Initial duties of up to 92% were revised down to 2.3% for La Molisana and 13.9% for Garofalo, with most other producers facing a 9.1% tariff.Italian pasta exporters remain subject to a separate 15% U.S. tariff on EU imports, limiting the overall relief.The decision follows weeks of lobbying by Italy’s government and industry groups.A final determination in the antidumping review is due by 11 March, leaving some residual uncertainty.The outcome helps protect roughly US$770 million in annual Italian pasta exports to the U.S.Info via a Wall Street Journal report (gated).Trump has stepped back from imposing trade-killing antidumping duties on Italian pasta makers, significantly reducing proposed tariffs and easing fears that major brands would be forced to withdraw from the U.S. market. The revised decision by the U.S. Commerce Department lowers duties dramatically from preliminary levels that had alarmed Italian producers and policymakers alike.Under the revised measures, leading exporters La Molisana and Garofalo will face antidumping duties of 2.3% and 13.9%, respectively, down from an initial proposal of as much as 92%. Eleven other Italian pasta makers will be subject to a 9.1% tariff. While these duties still add to costs, the reductions are widely seen as allowing Italian pasta to remain commercially viable in U.S. stores.The earlier proposal, issued in September, had stunned the Italian pasta industry, which exports around US$770 million worth of product annually to the United States. Producers warned that tariffs at those levels would have effectively shut them out of the market. In response, Italy’s government and industry leaders mounted an intense lobbying effort, framing the issue not just as a trade dispute but as a matter of national economic and cultural significance.Defending pasta exports became a high-profile priority for the government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, which has sought to position Italy as a close European partner of the Trump administration. Some Italian officials and executives privately questioned whether broader U.S. protectionist policies influenced the severity of the preliminary ruling, though U.S. officials rejected that view, insisting the decision was based on technical criteria.Commerce said its updated analysis showed Italian producers had addressed many concerns raised earlier and reaffirmed its commitment to a fair and transparent process. However, uncertainty remains. The antidumping review is still ongoing, with a final report due by March 11. Moreover, Italian pasta exporters continue to face a separate 15% U.S. tariff on European Union imports, meaning overall trade conditions remain restrictive despite the relief. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary: Australia’s manufacturing sector remained in expansion in December, with the PMI holding at 51.6 for a second straight month. New orders and output continued to grow, though momentum eased amid softer foreign demand and tighter competition. Employment rose at the fastest pace in nine months, supported by better candidate availability and rising workloads. Supply conditions deteriorated sharply, with delivery times lengthening at the fastest pace since late 2024. Input cost inflation accelerated, driven by higher material and shipping expenses, with output prices also rising. Business confidence improved to a four-month high, supported by expansion plans and new product launches.Australia’s manufacturing sector ended 2025 on a modestly positive footing, with activity continuing to expand in December despite signs of easing momentum. According to PMI data from S&P Global, growth in new orders and output was sustained, hiring strengthened, and business confidence improved, even as supply constraints and cost pressures intensified.The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index held steady at 51.6 in December, unchanged from November and comfortably above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The reading marked a second consecutive month of modest improvement in operating conditions across the sector. Down from the flash reading: Australia preliminary December PMI: Manufacturing 52.2 (prior 51.6) services 51.0 (52.8)Production rose for the second month running, supported by higher inflows of new work. However, both output and new order growth slowed relative to earlier in the quarter. Firms reported that while domestic demand conditions were improving, softer market sentiment, heightened competition and weaker overseas demand limited overall growth. New export orders declined marginally for a fourth straight month, reflecting ongoing budget constraints among foreign clients.Despite the moderation in demand growth, manufacturers increased hiring at the fastest pace in nine months. Improved labour availability supported workforce expansion, helping firms further reduce outstanding workloads. Purchasing activity also increased in response to higher production needs, though overall inventories continued to edge lower for a third consecutive month.Supply-side pressures intensified notably in December. Delivery times lengthened at the sharpest pace in over a year due to material shortages and logistical delays, contributing to an acceleration in input cost inflation. Higher raw material and shipping expenses pushed costs up at a faster rate than in November, though inflation remained below long-term survey averages.Manufacturers passed some of these cost increases on to customers, lifting output prices again in December. Encouragingly, business sentiment strengthened to its highest level in four months, with firms citing new product launches and expansion plans as key drivers of expected growth over the coming year. ---Earlier, not a positive for AUD sentimentICYMI: China slaps 55% tariff on excess beef imports under new three-year safeguard regime This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary, and note there is AUD risk in this news:China will impose a 55% tariff on beef imports exceeding newly set quotas from January 1, 2026, under a three-year safeguard regime.The 2026 total import quota is set at 2.7 million tonnes, broadly in line with 2024 imports but below 2025 shipment levels for key suppliers.Brazil and Australia are most affected, with quota caps falling well below their recent export volumes to China.Beijing says the measures are needed to protect the domestic cattle industry, citing damage from rising imports and weak competitiveness.Analysts warn the policy is unlikely to fix structural weaknesses in China’s beef sector and may disrupt global trade flows amid tight supply.Exporters have pushed back, with Australia calling the move disappointing and Brazilian industry groups warning of billions in potential revenue losses.China has announced new safeguard measures on beef imports, imposing a steep 55% tariff on volumes that exceed newly defined country-level quotas, in a move aimed at protecting its domestic cattle industry. The measures will take effect from January 1, 2026, and remain in place for three years, with quotas set to rise modestly each yearUnder the new framework, China has set a total import quota of 2.7 million metric tonnes for 2026, broadly in line with the 2.87 million tonnes imported in 2024 but below shipment levels recorded by several major suppliers during 2025. Brazil and Australia, China’s two largest beef exporters, face quota limits that sit well under their year-to-date shipments, meaning a significant portion of current trade flows could be subject to punitive tariffs.China’s commerce ministry said the surge in imported beef has caused “serious damage” to the domestic industry, following an investigation launched late last year. Officials argue the safeguards will help stabilise breeding-cow inventories and give domestic producers time to restructure, modernise and upgrade operations. Policymakers have already stepped up sector support in 2025, noting cattle farming profitability has improved in recent months.Analysts, however, remain sceptical that tariffs alone can resolve structural challenges. Industry experts point out that China’s beef-cattle sector remains fundamentally uncompetitive relative to producers in Brazil and Argentina, for example, a gap unlikely to be closed quickly through policy or technological change.The decision lands amid a tight global beef market, with supply shortages driving prices to record highs in several regions, including the United States. Exporters have responded cautiously. Australian officials described the move as disappointing, while industry representatives stressed that alternative export destinations remain available. Brazilian authorities struck a more measured tone, signalling potential negotiations with Beijing and an ability to redirect shipments, though domestic lobby groups warned the measures could cost Brazil up to US$3 billion in export revenue in 2026.Overall, the safeguards underscore Beijing’s willingness to prioritise agricultural self-sufficiency, even at the cost of trade friction with key partners. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

If you would like to stay in holiday mode again today I've good news for you. The vacation mood will carry on for today, Friday, January 2, 2026, with professional activity mainly returning on Monday the 5th. I thought we might have Rating Dog services PMI from China today, after we got official PMIs and Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI back on Friday:China official December 2025 PMIs: Manufacturing 50.1 (exp 49.2) Non-manu 50.2 (exp 49.8)China S&P Global/Rating Dog December 2025 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expect 49.8, prior 49.9)But, no, we'll be waiting until Monday for that. Instead today it's a couple of minor data points from Australia:The manufacturing PMI is the 'final' for December. We had the, preliminary / flash back in mid-December:Australia preliminary December PMI: Manufacturing 52.2 (prior 51.6) services 51.0 (52.8)The headline S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index eased to 51.1 in December from 52.6 in November, marking the lowest reading in seven months but remaining above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The result extended the current expansionary run to fifteen consecutive months, underscoring ongoing growth across both services and manufacturing.If you've read down this far, here's a bit more. Some early FX pricing for the session. Its not from New Zealand markets as is usual at this time, NZ is out for a holiday today. It's the "Day after New Year’s Day" holiday. Smart move, that. But, what is usual is my standard caveat. Its not Monday, but given the global holiday on Thursday market conditions re thin liquidity are worthy of a caution:As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online ... prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.Not too much change from late Wednesday.Whoops, nearly forgot ... Happy New Year! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.