US core inflation rate August (YoY): +3.1% vs +3.1% expected, meets consensusUS core inflation rate August (MoM): +0.3% vs +0.3% expected, meets consensusUS non-core inflation rate August (YoY): +2.9% vs +2.9% expected, meets consensusUS non-core inflation rate August (MoM): +0.3% vs +0.4% expected, above consensus by +0.1%US Consumer Price Index Report (August 2025): Breaking: The US core inflation rate came in at 3.1% YoY in August, meeting consensus and remaining unchanged month over month.Key takeaway: Although not rising, core inflation is proving somewhat sticky and remains decisively above the Fed target of 2%. Since last month, YoY core inflation is at its highest level since March, but will likely pose no obstacle in a decision to cut rates next week, courtesy of recent jobs data. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lagged its peers since the recent Fed Chair Powell’s dovish speech in Jackson Hole on 22 August 2025, which signaled a change of monetary policy stance from a “wait and see” approach to a more proactive one to address the risk of a deterioration in the US labour market. Fig. 1: Performances of S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA & Russell 2000 from 22 Aug 2025 to 10 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) From 22 August to Tuesday, 10 September 2025, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 advanced 1% and 1.5% respectively, both setting fresh record highs. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 0.7%, while in contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3% over the same period (see Fig. 1).All three major US stock indices, apart from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, advanced on expectations of a more dovish Fed ahead of the 17 September FOMC meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed Funds futures now fully price in a 25 bps cut to 4.00%–4.25%, with high odds of additional 25 bps cuts at the 29 October (85%) and 10 December (73%) meetings, potentially bringing rates down to 3.50%–3.75% by year-end.Let’s now review the short-term technical picture of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and key levels to watch ahead of the US CPI data release. Fig. 1: US Wall Street 30 CFD minor trend as of 11 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bullish consolidation within a minor uptrend phase that is still in place from the 1 August 2025 low for the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index.Bullish bias with 45,290/45,175 as the key short-term pivotal support zone, and a clearance above 45,780 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 46,060/46,180 and 46,365/46,400 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index have continued to trade above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 13 August 2025 and 1 August 2025. These observations suggest the minor and medium-term uptrend phases of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index remain intact.The sideways movement of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index in place since the 22 August 2025 minor swing high has evolved into a bullish continuation/consolidation configuration called “Ascending Triangle” with its range resistance at 45,780.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index has managed to stage a rebound on Wednesday, 10 September, after a retest of its parallel ascending support, which suggests a short-term bullish momentum revival.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 45,290/45,175 key support invalidates the bullish tone for an extension of the minor corrective decline to expose the next supports at 45,945 and 44,715 (also close to the 50-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The timing for this morning's piece was either fortunate or unfortunate.US President trump has posted a very cryptic Truth Social post saying:"What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!"Anyways, I invite you to check our morning piece on US Oil to access to the trading levels of interest for the commodity. Link just below. Read More: Chaos in Eastern Europe – Oil (WTI) prices lagging the move? WTI Oil 30M Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are far from straightforward, and political instability doesn’t always translate into weakness in the subject currency.In Japan, Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation was expected since the Liberal Democratic Party he represents lost the vote in mid-July which preceded a stronger yen.Participants are relieved from the resignation that is taking place right ahead of a no-confidence vote in Japan that would oust the Prime Minister and provoke further political unrest.If you want to see how bad these turn out, look at France today (hosting some of the largest protests in years) after French PM Bayrou got kicked out, losing a no-confidence vote.Ishiba aimed to pursue tariff discussions, which haven't seemed to be advancing much. However, with traders less concerned about the yen outlook and a Weaker PPI report this morning pushing the odds for a 50 bps FED cut further (still around 10% for now), expectations for the yen are rising again after a rough year.Let's have a look at the Yen performance against the US Dollar through a multi-timeframe USD/JPY technical analysis.Yen has by the way also strengthened quite largely against the neighbouring Canadian Dollar, I invite you to check our latest analysis of CAD/JPY right here. Read More: Chaos in Eastern Europe – Oil (WTI) prices lagging the move?USDJPY Multi-timeframe analysisUSDJPY Daily timeframe USDJPY Daily Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Markets are awaiting for not only next Wednesday's FOMC meeting, but also the following Bank of Japan's meeting the next day. With BoJ Speakers repeating that the path forward is more towards hikes, rate differencials between the US and Japan are projected to converge, particularly amid the upbeat Japanese growth and inflation.After retesting the high 150.00 Monthly pivot zone and consequently rejecting it, the price action has been stuck in a limbo between 147.00 to 148.50.FX is trying to pick it up more in the previous days, but looking out, there is a certain lack of direction in the pair – Let's try to see if shorter timeframe allow to shift the outlook ahead of tomorrow's US CPI release.USDJPY 4H timeframe USDJPY 4H Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, the week opened with a gap higher within thin-volume trading before seeing a sharp downward reversal.Tomorrow's price action will be decisive, but amid the current strong range, traders are holding prices right in the middle pivot zone.A failure to break the 148.100 highs of that pivot zone will give more technical edge to the sellers.This will have to be confirmed through tomorrow's CPI report, with any move until then likely to be faded or lack much continuation.\Levels to keep watch for USD/JPY trading:Resistance LevelsPivot at the 148.00 zone +/- 100 pips (immediate resistance combined with MA 50 and 200)May range extremes from 148.70 to 149.50150.00 psychological resistance150.90 July highsSupport Levels146.50 range support145.00 psychological support142.35 low of the May range, main supportUSDJPY 1H timeframe USDJPY 1H Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView As seen on the 4H timeframe, the price action has mean-reverted the lows attained in yesterday's session due to some mean-reversion US Dollar buying as can be explored in our latest US Dollar analysis.However, a short-timeframe downward channel is developping (despite the few cracks below) and shows that bear momentum currently holds the upper hand.Do not forget that tomorrow's CPI may change everything to the current trend, particularly is the report does come in much stronger : expected at 0.3%, anything above 0.5% will change the theme considerably.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: US CPI Preview: Implications for the DXY & Federal ReserveThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 opened higher on Wednesday as traders grew more confident that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. This is because a new report showed that US producer prices unexpectedly went down in August, mainly due to lower costs for services. Source: TradingView This news, along with a big stock market gain for the cloud computing company Oracle, helped boost investor confidence.According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there's a 90% chance of a small rate cut (25 basis points) and a 10% chance of a larger cut (50 basis points) at the Fed's meeting on September 16-17.Individual Stock Performance - Oracle Drags Markets Higher After Oracle announced that it expects its cloud business to bring in over half a trillion dollars in booked revenue, its shares jumped by 31.5% in premarket trading reaching around the 39% mark after the US market opened. This surge was due to growing demand for its affordable cloud infrastructure services.The surge in Oracle also saw Larry Ellison pass Elon Musk as the World's Richest person.This positive news had a ripple effect, causing gains for several chip companies. Nvidia rose 3.2%, Advanced Micro Devices was up 4.4%, and Broadcom added 3.7%. Companies that supply power to data centers also benefited from the positive forecast, with Constellation Energy rising 2.4%, Vistra advancing 3.6%, and GE Vernova going up 3.9%.Analysts at BofA Global Research said that while the profitability of AI workloads remains debated, it is clear Oracle is capturing share in the large and fast-growing market for AI infrastructure. They estimate the AI applications industry will reach $155 billion by 2030.In other stock news, Synopsys saw its shares slide 24% before the market opened. The company, which makes software for designing chips, missed Wall Street's revenue predictions for the third quarter. Its competitor, Cadence Design Systems, also slipped by 4.5%.Finally, GameStop's shares gained 7.4% after the video game retailer reported higher revenue for its second quarter.Concerns Grow After Jobs Revision Despite the fresh highs by both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 today there are some warning signs starting to flash for the US economy.In September, US equity investors have grown more risk-averse as political uncertainty and stretched valuations dominate concerns, even as recession risks ease and expectations for monetary easing rise.Elevated valuations in US and global equity markets rest mainly on bullish earnings expectations, led by tech and AI companies benefiting from robust revenue growth, solid profitability, and widening adoption.The risk of a drawdown in the S&P 500 has risen recently, fueled by low market volatility, slowing economic growth, and ongoing concerns over tariffs and rising inflation later this year. Today's PPI data was positive when it comes to the inflation outlook moving forward and tomorrow CPI print will provide more details. Source: IsabelNet, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Add these concerns to historic performance which tells us that September is the worst-performing month for US stocks—this holds true for the past 10 years, 20 years, and going back to 1950. It is rare to see both August and September finish higher in a post-election year.This was followed by news today from JP Morgan's trading desk that US stocks could drop after the Fed meeting on September 17.Led by Andrew Tyler, the trading team is concerned that after the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 17, when they are expected to cut interest rates by a small amount, the market might actually drop. This could happen as investors step back to think about several things: new economic data, how the Fed will react to future events, whether too many people are already betting on a rate cut, a decrease in companies buying back their own stocks, and less involvement from individual investors.Regarding their economic concerns, Tyler and his team believe that with fewer available workers, lowering interest rates could increase the demand for employees. This might cause a more persistent wage inflation. They also note that comments from various companies suggest that more costs from tariffs will likely be passed on to consumers.On the other end of the spectrum, Wall Street strategists are raising their S&P 500 estimates due to increasing interest in AI and good corporate results. Barclays raised its 2025 year-end target for the S&P 500, for the second time in three months, to 6,450 from 6,050.This shows a significant divide in where analysts see US equities ending the year and highlights the uncertainties still in play for the remainder of 2025.In the shorter-term markets will focus on the CPI data release tomorrow before the Fed decision next week, which promises fireworks. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Nasdaq 100 From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq 100 on the four-hour chart appeared to be getting ready for a significant pullback after last Friday.The index lost around 1% after the lackluster Jobs data but has surged higher this week to fresh all-time highs more than once.This begs the question, is there any stopping the rally?The technicals are not giving much away. The RSI period-14 on the four-hour timeframe is approaching overbought territory and that could be the first warning sign to pay attention to.Given what we have heard from JP Morgan's trading desk, if US equities do not experience a pullback this week or ahead of the Fed decision next week, will the Fed meeting become a ‘sell the news’ event which could be the catalyst for a significant pullback in equity prices.Nasdaq 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 10, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - Nasdaq 100 Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on the Nasdaq with 77% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means the Nasdaq 100 Index could rise in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The New Zealand dollar has renewed its upward move after a pause on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5957, up 0.52% on the day. Earlier, NZD/USD rose as high as 0.5964, a two-month high.Will Hawkesbury hint at another rate cut? The markets will be keeping a close eye on Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby, who will discuss the RBNZ's August Monetary Statement at an event in Auckland on Thursday.At the August meeting, the Reserve Bank cut rates by a quarter-point to 3.0%, its lowest level since August 2022. The central bank hinted at further rate cuts due to expectations of lower growth both domestically and globally. The monetary rate statement said that if inflation pressures continued to ease, "there is scope" to continue lowering the cash rate. The Bank's dovish tone surprised the markets and sent the New Zealand dollar tumbling 1.2% on the day of the meeting. As well, two of the six committee members voted for a 50 basis-point cut, reinforcing market expectations that the Reserve Bank will cut at least one more time this year. Investors will be looking for clues from Hawkesby on Thursday.US PPI declines by 0.1% US wholesale prices for August declined for the first time in four months. Both headline and core PPI fell 0.1%, down from 0.7% and shy of the market estimate of 0.3%. Annualized, headline PPI eased to 2.6% from 3.1%, below the market estimate of 3.3%. Core PPI slipped to 2.8% from 3.4%, below the market estimate of 3.5%.Will we see a similar miss from consumer inflation on Thursday? The markets expect headline CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.7% and core CPI to remain steady at 3.1%. If consumer inflation surprises to the downside, the US dollar could lose ground as rate cut expectations would likely increase.NZD/USD Technical NZDUSD has pushed above resistance at 0.5936 and is testing 0.5950. Above, there is resistance at 0.59730.5913 and 0.5899 are providing support NZDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 10, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Another round of tensions have arised in Eastern Europe since this weekend's largest ever attacks from Russia towards Ukraine. For the first time, Russia launched drones into Poland (from Belarus) and marks one of the first times a NATO and EU member gets attacked since the beginning of the 2022 conflict.Close to 20 drones were launched and EU Countries jumped to intervene which prevented most impacts except for one polish house that got damaged. Poland invokes article 4 to assemble NATO leaders and we should see what arises from here.A prolonged war in Eastern Europe adds to disruptions in the Oil Market but with Russia flooding its buyers with super cheap petrol, prices have been holding down.Recent increased turmoil in the Middle East have also contributed to a small rebound in Oil prices from their relative lows, but the commodity is still far from actively bid.Are markets disregarding upside risks to further Oil market disruptions?We'll have a look at a multi-timeframe chart analysis to attempt to see if something is preparing for WTI – Ahead of the June Israel-Iran spikes, a breakout had started to occur for those who were not watching. Read More: Breaking News: US core PPI rises by 2.8% Y/Y in August vs 3.5% expectedMarkets Today: Inditex Up 6%, Nikkei Up 0.8% as China CPI Falls. DAX Eyes Return to 24000The ECB is unlikely to change rates in the near futureUS Oil multi-timeframe technical analysisWTI Daily Chart WTI Oil Daily Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView The daily picture offers interesting patterns that denote at least a slowdown in the selling that had been regaining strength in the first week of September due to a supplemented OPEC+ supply, downward economic prospects and continuing wars.However, a double bottom (not showing strong reactions signs for now) but also a rising and diverging RSI momentum, a sign of potential reversal.A potential daily flag formation could also be into play, but its shape is a bit extended due to the previous June Israel-Iran war spikes – It will be interesting to see what happens if Markets rise to test the descending flag triangle trendline.WTI 8H Chart WTI Oil 8H Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer to 8H Chart demarks the price action still evolving within a shorter-timeframe descending channel. Having recently tested its lows, buyers will have to show up to avoid rangebound action or further downside momentum, particularly after having formed a double bottom.A failure to hold the most recent lows ($61.84) would not see much support between the $60 level.The price action is still hesitant, held by the 50-period MA currently at $64 and will be a key barometer for future price action.Levels to place on your WTI Oil Charts:Resistance Levels$64 50-period Moving AverageHigher timeframe pivot $66July mid-range $67 resistanceSupport LevelsMay range Support $63 to $64 (currently testing)Current lows $61.84$60.5 Low of May RangeWTI 1H Chart WTI Oil 1H Chart, September 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking even closer to the intraday chart, we spot a small upward trendline that bulls will try to maintain to break the $63.94 highs. Some strong resistance is holding prices from a higher break for now and will be in focus for future action. Keep an eye on the Eastern Europe headlines.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Producer Price Index (PPI) ex. Food & Energy August (Core) (YoY): +2.8% vs +3.5% expected, below consensus by -0.7%US Producer Price Index (PPI) ex. Food & Energy August (Core) (MoM): -0.1% vs +0.3% expected, below consensus by -0.4%US Producer Price Index (PPI) August (YoY): 2.6% vs +3.3% expected, below consensus by -0.7%US Producer Price Index (PPI) August (MoM): -0.1% vs +0.3% expected, below consensus by -0.4%US Producer Price Index Report (August 2025): Table A. Monthly and 12-month percent changes in selected final demand price indexes, seasonally adjusted, U.S. BLS 10/09/2025 Breaking: US core PPI rises by 2.8% YoY in August, down 0.1% MoM. The report comes in lower than expectations, with markets predicting a higher rate of 3.5% YoY, and a monthly gain of +0.3%.Key takeaway: US producer-facing inflation is less sticky than once thought. Coming in lower than expectations across the board, today’s result will further vindicate a choice to cut rates in the upcoming rate decision. "The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August.Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025." Producer Price Index (PPI) August, U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMarket Reaction EUR/USD, OANDA, TradingView, 10/09/2025 Since the release, EUR/USD remain relatively unchanged, having surrendered gains made in the minutes after. Otherwise, Gold (XAU/USD) trades 0.15% lower, while Dow futures remain virtually unchanged ahead of the NYSE open. Read more coverage from today’s session: The ECB is unlikely to change rates in the near future Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

ECB likely on hold; markets fully priced for no move.Headline inflation path could edge up; expectations ticked to 2.5%.Activity improving (PMI > 50); base case remains status quo at a 2% deposit rate.Baseline for Thursday: hold The European Central Bank will likely keep interest rates unchanged this Thursday and leave them at their current levels. The setup is favorable: inflation now appears closer to the 2% target than the ECB’s earlier assumptions suggested, and growth prospects are gradually improving. In such conditions, policymakers can feel comfortable with the deposit rate at 2%.Market pricing and messaging Markets do not expect a cut on Thursday. In a Bloomberg survey, all economists anticipate no change in policy settings, and Overnight Index Swaps likewise price in no move. Talk of further reductions later in the year is kept alive by a few more “dovish” voices on the Governing Council, and Reuters has reported that some internal discussions leave room to revisit cuts. In my view, however, the ECB will concentrate on stabilizing monetary conditions this year and will not make any major changes to policy parameters. OIS-implied market pricing of the future path of ECB interest rates. Source: Bloomberg. Inflation path and expectations It’s not out of the question that the ECB raises its inflation path. The current projection envisages a further slowdown in price dynamics, with a temporary trough at 1.4% in Q1 2026 and a return to 2% in early 2027. An upward revision could stem from forecasts of higher crude oil prices and a higher path for energy costs, which would feed directly into inflation. Household inflation expectations have also ticked up: the median rose to 2.5% (from 2.4% previously). At first glance that’s a small move, but economically it can matter. Remember that household expectations are a key transmission channel over the longer horizon, shaping wage, pricing, and consumption decisions even before actual inflation moves. That’s why central banks work hard to keep 3–5-year expectations firmly anchored near target. In this context, even a small shift in the median from 2.4% to 2.5% may be important—a directional signal that expectations are edging away from target, raising the risk of “de-anchoring.” Chart showing the ECB main refinancing rate, CPI inflation, and core CPI inflation (year over year). Source: Bloomberg. Activity is improving: PMI and trade backdrop Euro-area activity is picking up. The composite PMI has risen for three consecutive months, reaching 51.0—typically a sign of modest recovery over a 3–6-month horizon. The rebound is especially visible in manufacturing, where the subindex recently moved above 50 for the first time in three years. Cautious optimism may reflect better financing conditions, which at least partly offset U.S. trade barriers. The tariff agreement—while implying higher duties than before—reduces trade-policy uncertainty. President Christine Lagarde has emphasized that the tariff level is “close to the June assumptions.” PMI indicators for the euro-area economy. Source: Bloomberg. What to expect on Thursday We may see a slight upward revision to the GDP growth projection for Q3 and, by extension, for the full year, alongside a modest lift in the headline inflation path toward target. The core inflation projection will likely stay broadly unchanged and continue converging to 2%. This picture offers no compelling case for rapid easing or renewed tightening. The most coherent strategy is to maintain the status quo—watch the data—and run policy at a level the ECB is comfortable with, i.e., a 2% deposit rate. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar continues to hover around the 0.66 level and close to three-week highs. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6604, up 0.30% on the day.Inflation expectations expected to remain at 3.9% The Reserve Bank of Australia will be keeping a close eye on Thursday's consumer inflation expectations, which is expected to remain unchanged in September at 3.9%. Inflation expectations fell in August to 3.9% from 4.7%, the lowest level since March.With inflation largely under control, the Reserve Bank has continued its easing cycle, lowering rates in August to 3.6%, the lowest level since April 2023. At the meeting, the RBA signaled that it would continue to cut rates as the inflation was easing and the labor market had cooled. China's inflation points lower China continues to grapple with deflation. Consumer inflation in August declined 0.4% y/y, down from 0% in July and lower than the market estimate of -0.2%. Monthly, CPI was flat, down from 0.4% in July and below the market estimate of 0.1%. The Producer Price Index fell 2.9% y/y, following a 3.6% decline and in line with the market estimate.Deflation in China reflects decreased demand, which could spell trouble for Australia, as China is its largest trading partner. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates at next week's meeting, even though inflation is around 3%, above the Fed's target of 2%. The US releases August consumer inflation on Thursday, with headline CPI expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.7% and the core rate projected to remain unchanged at 3.1%. The inflation report is unlikely to change any minds at the Fed about a September cut, but could change market expectations about one further rate cut before the end of the year.AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6590 and is testing 0.6610. Next, there is resistance at 0.66350.6570 and 0.6555 are the next support levels AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 10, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Since a retest on its key medium-term “Expanding Wedge” range support on 22 August 2025, the AUD/USD has staged a minor bullish reversal and rallied by 3.2% (low to high) to print an intraday high of 0.6620 on Tuesday, 9 September 2025, on the backdrop of a broad-based weaker US dollar against other major currencies in anticipation of a Fed dovish pivot.Read more on US CPI Preview: Implications for the DXY & Federal Reserve Fig. 1: One-day rolling performances of the US dollar against major currencies as of 10 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) In today’s Asia session, on 10 September, the Australian dollar is the strongest-performing currency among the majors against the US dollar. Based on a one-day rolling performance, the USD/AUD cross rate has declined by -0.3%, much more than the US Dollar Index, which is trading almost unchanged (see Fig. 1).The current upswing in AUD/USD has been reinforced by easing concerns over a potential deflationary spiral in China from the latest key inflationary trends data for August.China’s core CPI has swung up further into growth territory Fig. 2: China CPI and core CPI with AUD/USD as of 10 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) China is a key trading partner of Australia, where a higher consumer demand from China on Australia’s raw minerals products is likely to exert upside pressure on the Aussie dollar.Despite the weaker-than-expected headline China’s consumer prices (CPI) that dropped to -0.4% y/y in August from a flat reading in July, and missing forecasts of a -0.2% y/y fall, the core CPI (excluding food and energy) has improved to a further positive reading of 0.9% y/y in August from 0.8% y/y in July,Overall, the core CPI trend in China has trended higher over the past six months, since the February 2025 print of -0.1% year-over-year. Interestingly, the long-term movement (monthly chart) of the AUD/USD has a direct correlation with the trend of China’s core CPI (see Fig. 2).China’s improving core CPI trend is likely to lift consumer confidence, which has remained subdued since the post-COVID period and the property market downturn. A recovery in sentiment could drive stronger demand for Australia’s raw minerals, creating a positive feedback loop that supports further strength in the Aussie dollar.Let’s now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the AUD/USD and its key levels to watch from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 10 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 4: AUD/USD medium-term trend as of 10 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Since its minor swing low of 0.6501 printed on 4 September 2025, AUD/USD is now undergoing a potential minor bullish acceleration phase after a retest of its 20-day moving average.Bullish bias above 0.6580 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 0.6620 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 0.6640 and 0.6660/0.6680 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 3).Key elements Price actions of the AUD/USD have traded back above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages since last Friday, 5 September 2025, which reinforces a minor uptrend phase that is still in progress.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a rebound at its parallel ascending support, suggesting that the short-term bullish momentum condition remains intact.The AUD/USD is still evolving within a medium-term “Expanding Wedge” configuration since 22 April 2025, with the upper limit/resistance of the “Expanding Wedge” standing at 0.6660/0.6700 (also the long-term secular descending trendline from 25 February 2021 high) (see Fig. 4).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 0.6580 key short-term support invalidates the bullish scenario on the AUD/USD to trigger off another round of minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6550 and 0.6525. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Some contradicting headlines are influencing the US Dollar in a battle of wits right ahead of quintessential inflation data.Markets have been unable to provide a clear answer on how the upcoming FOMC (September 17th) and its rate cut expectations will affect the future outlook for the Dollar.The thesis had been that despite negative news (Jerome Powell's change in tone at Jackson Hole or the recent Non-Farm Payrolls), traders have failed to sell the US Dollar convincingly, with the DXY doomed in sideways action.The freshly released downward revisioned BLS report (bearish for the USD) and the rising tensions in the Middle East with Israel-Hamas war taking another turn (bullish for the USD) are once again prevented a clear path ahead for the Greenback.However, some interesting technical patterns might be getting into play as we approach the surely decisive pair of inflation reports in the US PPI (8:30 E.T. tomorrow) and Thursday's CPI report. Let's take a look at the Dollar Index. Read More:Interest Rate Cut Bets Intact After -911k Jobs Revision, WIll Recession Fears Grow?BLS revisions dampen a decent crypto altcoin session – SOL, XRP, DOGE and ADA analysisHow could the data influence the US Dollar? Potential reactions The upcoming PPI report should bring back memories of the previous humoungous beat in the past month (0.9% vs 0.2% exp) pushing inflation expectations higher for the consecutive University of Michigan surveys (the FED hates that).This comes as Participants started to be less and less cocnerned by tariffs and their impact. Despite hurting producers before consumers, fears are that Producer Prices increases will repercutate in upcoming CPI releases, highlighting Thursday's number even more.A relatively weak PPI could help to support current sentiment quite largely, indicating that the past month increase was just a one off – This should support a 50 bps cut further (Dollar down).However an upward beat should do just the reverse and add to the anxiety (Dollar up)CPI will really be in focus however as Participants look to see if the higher producing costs have started to bite in consumers pockets.Reactions should be similar to the PPI, but their extent could be much larger: A higher inflation for Consumers should prevent a 50 bps entirely, towards more gradual cut and spark stagflation fears. US Dollar could hence maintain its sideways movement.Dollar Index intraday outlookDollar Index 4H Chart US Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Last week's data has brought some renewed selling momentum as bears have managed to form a downward tight bear channel (bear candles overlapping each other).The weekly open hence formed a small gap to test the July support/pivot zone, and this morning of action actually saw a decent rebound, undoing some of the bear advantage.Arriving at a key technical standpoint, bears entering here could take the hand by rejecting the 97.60 to 97.80 range lows (break-retest style).Keep in mind that action will be swift tomorrow (expect spikes) and prices may just dawdle around until then.Key levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Support Levels:97.40 to 97.80 Range Support (currently getting tested)Last Pivot before run-higher 97.15 Zone acting as Key Support2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Resistance Levels:98.00 Mid-Range pivot98.50 to 98.80 Resistance ZoneMid-line of the ascending channel and psychological level 99.50100.00 Main resistance zoneDollar Index 30m Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 30M Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer to the short-timeframe, the support zone that is currently trading will be a major test for bulls.Managing to hold the lows of the current support (97.40, immediate short-term support) would indicate balanced action, which would be more in the bulls favor after failing to hold lower.On the other hand, sellers appearing at the immediate short-term resistance (97.70) could trigger break-retest selling reactions.A breakout in any direction should see continuation.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Even after Non-Farm Payrolls, cryptocurrencies and other assets are still in kind of a weird zone.Despite being the newest main asset class, digital assets does not avoid the pre-data undecisive trading phenomenon – Key Market participants will usually await for key data to move their pawns forward and generating volatility.This can be seen with whale volumes (big crypto traders, portfolios above 10,000 BTC) shutting down since July, with Retail traders coming in strong and taking their part of the cake which maintain prices at decent levels.Also, Cryptocurrencies and particularly altcoins enjoyed some decent flows today, but the mood got sapped by the freshly released downward revision of US Labor.Doge has made it to the top of the board for the second consecutive day, XRP is making a comeback around $3.00 and Solana just marked some new intermediate highs.The biggest volumes and moves may only really materialize after Thursday's CPI Report (8:30 ET), however we shall still have a look at a few altcoin charts with ADA, XRP, SOL and DOGE. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) bullies its way to new record highs – Potential targets and fundamental outlookMarkets Today: DXY Hits 7-Week Low, Nikkei Breaches 44000, French Politics in Focus, DAX Steady at ResistanceThe Crypto Market today: A green picture Crypto market overview, September 9, 2025 – Source: Finviz Cryptocurrency altcoin technical analysis: Solana, Doge, XRP and ADASolana 8H Chart Solana 8H Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Solana has held in the performing side of the crypto Market as of late as highlighted in our most recent crypto update.SOL is in the middle of an approval of ETF creations amid a SEC and Exchanges opening for such crypto offerings, leading to ongoing accumulation.Holding strong despite competing altcoins correcting tends to provide signs of relative strength, and relative strength tends to last.Supported by its 50-period MA (a key technical indicator to monitor), Solana is approaching the upper bound of its longer run upward channel situated between $220 to $225 and reactions there will be interesting to monitor.A rejection here could point to a retest of the $180 to $185 momentum zone, while a breakout would not see much resistance before $250.Some ongoing selling is happening due to the downbeat US Labor data revisions. Levels of interest for SOL trading:Support Levels:$200 psychological level$185 momentum pivot and recent swing lows$160 Major support and low of channelResistance Levels:Daily highs $218$220 to $225 upper bound of channelJanuary Pivot/Resistance $250 to $260Current all-time high $295A parenthesis on SOL/ETH SOL/ETH relative performance chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking at SOL/ETH also can generate interesting viewsooking at SOL/ETH also can generate interesting views:Solana is taking the short-term hand again after Ethereum's domination in the past few months: From May to end-August, Ethereum performed at +146% vs Solana's 47%.On the other hand, things have seemed to start to revert with Ether's muted performance (hanging between $4200 to $4,400 in the past two weeks), allowing Solana to outperform its sibling as seen on the chart.DOGE Daily Chart DOGE 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Meme coins are attempting a comeback after staying dormant since the April 2025 bottoms in other coins.Memecoins rallying have been signs of cycle ends, but for now the rally is still very young atfer prices just broke out of a triangle formation.Breaking the $0.28 highs should attract further upside momentum. Levels of interest for DOGE trading:Support Levels:Longer-run Pivot $0.20Key Support 0.14 to 0.16$0.10 Psychological LevelResistance Levels:Recent highs resistance 0.28Key hurdle for renewed Bull domination $0.31 to 0.330.40 Psychological resistanceAll-time highs $0.81XRP 4H Chart XRP 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView XRP freshly retested the $3.00 mark in the morning session, however the move is getting restricted by some profit taking since the BLS Survey got released, hurting sentiment.Having broken its descending channel, the price action is much closer to neutral now than the bearish tilt the crypto was heading towards just a week ago.Keep an eye on the $2.95 to $3.03 Key Pivot (blue square): Above should bring more upside, while rejecting current trading point to further correction.Levels of interest for XRP trading:Support Levels:Current $3.00 Major Pivot Zone$2.60 to 2.70 immediate support$2.00 psychological levelResistance Levels:4H MA 200 $2.99 (Immediate resistance)$3.03 daily highsPrevious all-time Highs - $3.39Current ATH resistance around $3.66ADA 4H Chart ADA 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Some fresh buying has stepped in at the 0.80 Support level and allows to form a fresh upward channel.Its Lower boundary stays fairly close to current trading, however with many key moving averages acting as support (50 and 200 on the chart), the path could continue upward.ADA has seen some volatile momentum without going too far either to the upside or downside, therefore the next phase is closely watched by participants to see if the altcvoin can gather momentumLevels of interest for ADA trading:Support Levels:$0.83 50 and 200-period Moving averages$0.80 Key Support$0.70 psychological levelResistance Levels:Current Pivot around $0.90 and Daily highs (0.8970)$0.95 Mini resistance$1.00 ResistanceMarch 2025 $1.17 HighsSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The New Zealand dollar added gains earlier today but was unable to consolidate. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5927, down 0.19% on the day. The New Zealand dollar has surged as much as 1.9% since Thursday.New Zealand manufacturing sales slides New Zealand's manufacturing sector continues to struggle. Manufacturing sales fell sharply in the second quarter with a 2.9% decline. This was a sharp reversal from the 4.8% in Q1 and well below the market estimate of 4.5% increase.Manufacturing sales were broadly lower across the sector and are expected to weigh on second-quarter GDP, which will be released next week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the cash rate to 3.0% last month as it continues to be aggressive. The RBNZ has chopped 225 basis points in the current easing cycle and is expected to continue easing in order to boost the weak economy.The RBNZ meets next on October 20 and the the third-quarter inflation report just a few days prior will be critical. Inflation jumped to 2.7% in Q2 but that is still within the Reserve Bank's target band of 1-3%. If inflation moves lower, the central bank will have greater flexibility to deliver another rate cut in October.In the US, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a rate hike next week for the first time since December 2024. The weak nonfarm payrolls report has raised the likelihood of a half-point cut to 12%, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 88%, according to CME's FedWatch.NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.5935 and is testing 0.5937. Below, there is support at 0.5915There is resistance at 0.5947 and 0.5955 NZDUSD 4-Hour Chart, September 9, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US President Trump will not be happy with this one: After firing Biden's BLS appointee for "rigged" statistics, it turns out that statistics really aren't all that great.The high-tier data revision highlights a -911K revision since March 2025. This would put even more emphasis on the weakening trend of the US Labor Market.Revisions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data get released every trimester and offer a preliminary review of the data.Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Eyes Further Gains as Strategy Expands Holding and ETF Flows Remain StrongThe final benchmark revision will be released in February 2026 with the January 2026 employment situation news release.You can access the report right here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.nr0.htmUS Labor Market Flashing Recessionary Signs? The fact that the preliminary benchmark revision is negative is no real surprise. Looking back at the data since 2019 and the revisions have been negative every year except in 2022.The latest data suggests employers added nearly 76,000 fewer jobs per month than previously reported from April 2024 through March 2025. While Tuesday’s numbers don’t include month-by-month revisions, the sheer breadth implies that payroll growth in some months, likely August and October 2024, was likely negative.Looking at private payrolls, the BLS revised down annual job gains by 880,000, with the trade, transportation, and utilities sector logging the biggest mark downs.Economists at Goldman Sachs, J.P Morgan, Nomura Securities, and Royal Bank of Canada expect the agency to mark down net job gains by as much as 900,000 on an annual basis, or by about 75,000 a month, on average.That would shift the average monthly gain to about 74,000 jobs, compared with the average monthly gain of 149,000 currently reported—and could mean growth in some months was negative in the period measured. Bank of America’s team has forecasted a downward revision of up to a million fewer jobs in the 12 months to March.In the words of Moody's Analytics top economist Mark Zandi, “If businesses start laying [people] off, then I think this will not just be a jobs recession, but will be an overall economic downturn.”These words are starting to ring in the ears of some market participants no doubt. Given what we are seeing with Gold prices and the haven appeal going around, some are well positioned for what may be ahead for financial markets.It may not be a fair reflection but part of the problem facing business over the last few months has been uncertainty. A lot of which has stemmed from erratic trade policies put forth by the Trump administration .For all the chatter by the administration around tariffs it does not seem to be yielding any results. The budget deficit continues to widen while the fairytale that factory jobs will return to the US was always a pipedream. It is just too costly to manufacture for export in the United States and that is basic mathematics.So where does this leave the US economy? Of course it is not all doom and gloom, but warning signs are flashing.If concerns around a potential recession continue to rise, this could have a lasting impact on not just the US Dollar but global markets as well. Oil prices could feel the heat while safe havens could continue their impressive 2025 rally to unprecedented highs.Immediate Market Reaction The US Dollar Index first fell when the news came out before moving higher to trade up around 0.12% on the day.The index had traded at 7 week lows earlier today before bouncing higher with ever evolving rate cut expectations driving price moves.Bets on a 25 basis point cut, that was already priced in, were intact while ones on a jumbo 50 bps reduction jumped to about 10% before settling around 8%, as per CME's FedWatch tool Source: CME FedWatch Tool Technical Analysis - US Dollar Index (DXY) From a technical standpoint, the DXY is attempting a recovery today as markets wait on CPI data due on Thrusday.The DXY could continue to grind until then with immediate resistance resting at 97.70 before the recent highs at 98.37 and the 100-day MA at 98.65 come into focus.The downside holds support at 96.90 before the YTD lows at 96.37 comes into focus.US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, September 9, 2025 Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities, and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Bullish acceleration supported rising implied volatility”, published on 2 September 2025.The precious yellow metal has staged the expected bullish breakout above its former all-time high of US$3,500 printed on 22 April 2025. Gold (XAU/USD) rallied by 5.3% to hit a current fresh intraday record high of US$3,655 at the time of writing.Lower opportunity costs reinforced the current bullish acceleration phase of Gold Fig. 1: 10-YR US Treasury real yield major trend with Gold (XAU/USD) as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView). Gold (XAU/USD), as a non-interest-bearing asset, tends to benefit in lower-rate environments. A decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting stronger demand.This dynamic can reinforce bullish momentum, potentially creating a positive feedback loop that drives further price appreciation.Since Fed Chair Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole on 22 August, the 10-year US Treasury real yield (stripping out 10-year inflation expectations derived from the 10-year US Treasury inflation-protected bond) has declined by 19 basis points (bps) to a current level of 1.66% from 1.85% (see Fig. 1).Let’s now examine Gold (XAU/USD)’s latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch. Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias with a key short-term pivotal support at US$3,600 for Gold (XAU/USD). Minor bullish impulsive up move sequence is likely in progress, and a clearance above US$3,670 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$3,697 and US$3,725 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The current price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) in place since the 29 August 2025 low of US$3,404, are classified as a bullish acceleration movement depicted by a steeper minor ascending channel.The lower boundary of the steeper minor ascending channel confluences closely with the US$3,500 key short-term pivotal support.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to find support at its parallel ascending support after it exited from its overbought zone in today’s Asia session (9 September).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the US$3,600 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD) invalidates the bullish tone to trigger a deeper minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at US$3,561 and US$3,536. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Benefitting from a weak nonfarm payrolls report last week, recent demand for precious metals has secured a fresh yearly high for silver, trading at around $41.2708 at the time of writing.Silver trades +0.68% higher in today's session.Silver (XAG/USD): Key takeaways from today’s session With last week’s price action representing silver’s best weekly performance since early June, US labour data significantly missing expectations has further increased rate cut bets, benefitting non-yielding precious metalsOtherwise, persistent inflation, spiralling US debt, and generalised lack of economic confidence are offering a significant tailwind to silver pricingSilver (XAG/USD): September Fed rate cut virtually ‘nailed-on’ after poor labour data Ending last week in spectacular fashion, August’s NFP report fell short of expectations significantly, offering some upside to silver, which endedComing in some 50,000 openings below consensus, at 22k, the result not only represents a worse-than-expected result, but also signifies the fourth consecutive month where job growth has been virtually flat.While this is, quite literally, yesterday’s news, the report has all but confirmed that the Federal Reserve will cut target rates in its upcoming decision, aiming to kickstart an otherwise struggling labour market.Notwithstanding, recent dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve has also fed into the same narrative. CME FedWatch, 08/09/2025 At the time of writing, CME FedWatch rates a 25 bps cut at an 88.4% probability, which indicates a rare level of confidence in the Fed’s next decision.As expected, a non-yielding asset such as silver stands to benefit from any suggestion that rate cuts are becoming more likely, as proven by price action on Friday. At least for now, upside seems to have continued somewhat into this week’s trading.Silver (XAG/USD): Safe-haven flows and inflationary pressures still at play While the dollar looks set to continue its downtrend, it would be fair to say markets remain wary of the US economy, in no small part thanks to questions surrounding current sovereign debt, trade agreements and inflation.For now, these questions largely remain unanswered. This uncertainty dampens risk appetite, significantly boosting precious metal gains, a phenomenon seen for much of this year.In the latter case, sticky inflation, at least in a vacuum, is favourable for silver pricing, with many looking to precious metals as a means of hedging inflation. While heightened inflation can sometimes be met with a rate hike, typically silver negative, a struggling labour market will almost certainly force the Fed’s hand in cutting rates this time around.Coupled with renewed safe-haven flows on general recession fears, at least in the short term, one outcome is a two-sided tailwind helping bolster further precious metal gains - silver included.Silver (XAG/USD): Technical analysis - 08/09/2025 Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView, 08/09/2025 On the daily timeframe, current price action remains well supported. If price can stay above $40.60, bulls will likely target $42.72 in the near term Read the latest coverage from MarketPulse: US indices remain uncertain ahead of CPI data – S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones outlook Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday provided a wide range of reactions, between the initial increased-rate cuts pricing boost to rising fears of an economic downturn in the world's largest economy.Uncertainty in the US continues as participants await Wednesday's PPI release (last month was a surprise, renewing tariff-led inflations fears) and more importantly, Thursday's CPI data.Friday's US Labor release have only confirmed one round of the multiple headwinds coming up for Markets – The US Dollar is stalling its descent against majors as a potential beat on inflation expectations would disallow a 50 bps cut in the 17th of September FOMC Meeting.In the meantime, Nasdaq is bringing stronger flows in today's session as equity index sentiment is holding even with Gold casually making new all-time highs – A piece will be release this early afternoon to spot potential hurdles to this rally.Let's have a look at an intraday picture for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the lagging Dow Jones. Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook – Moving forward from NFP, onto Inflation weekWTI Oil Rallies 1.8% as Russian Supply Concerns Outweigh Modest OPEC + Output HikeTechnical analysis for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow JonesNasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Late Friday dip buying has helped the tech-heavy index just around the pre-NFP level.It seems that the current bull-trend is resilient despite the shift in economic certainty, which doesn't frighten tech-stocks due to their way of generating income: Even broke, people will still watch videos and scroll pages, producing adversing revenues.Names like Oracle, Amazon, Broadcom and Palantir (surprise comeback?) is dragging Nasdaq above its competitors.Watch 23,867 as bulls are pushing towards the pre-NFP – Odds of a clear breakout before the mid-week inflation data is of low probabilities but everything is possible these days!Nasdaq technical levels of interest Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time Highs 23,986NFP highs 23,86724,250 potential resistance at middle of upward channelSupport LevelsDaily lows 23,69123,000 Key Support22,700 support at NFP lowsEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart S&P 500 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The dip-buying seen in Nasdaq also spread to the S&P 500, but to a lower extent.The index would be more affected than its tech-focused peer by a slowdown in the labor market, nonetheless, as long as prices remain within the 6,490 to 6,512 Pivot, the price action is balanced.A break above would relaunch the push to further all-time highs while a failure to hold the pivot zone could bring stronger profit-taking.Everything will depend on Wednesday and Thursday's inflation data points.S&P 500 technical levels of interest Resistance LevelsFriday and NFP 6,533 All-time highs6,570 to 6,600 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension)Way higher Fib-extension potential resistance from 6,650 to 6,700Support Levels6,490 to 6,512 pivot6,400 Main Support6,300 psychological support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Dow Jones 4H Chart Dow Jones 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Last week's still contracting ISM Manufacturing PMI report followed by the NFP report haven't helped the Dow.The index focuses on US manufacturing and production, which would get battered in an economic downturn. Particularly with tariffs hitting US Producers, expectations are getting lower for the US 30 compared to its younger-tech brothers. Bulls have brought it back from a retest of its 45,280 previous ATH level which helps to confirm the ongoing range (see on chart, check the triple retest of the ATH) and points to sideways action until Wednesday's PPI data.The 45,000 is the key handle to look for as a gauge for buyer-tenacity or a reversal in technical and fundamental sentiment, keep a close eye on this.Dow Jones technical levels of interest Levels for Dow Jones tradingResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 45,765ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,400 to 46,850Support LevelsLow of imminent consolidation 45,280Key Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6588, up 0.49% on the day. Earlier, the Australian dollar climbed to a daily high of 0.6598, its highest level since July 25.The US dollar ended the week broadly lower, as investors dumped the greenback after the soft US employment report. August nonfarm payrolls fell to 22 thousand, well below the revised market estimate of 79 thousand and lower than the July gain of 75 thousand. The Australian dollar rose as much as 1.1% on Friday before giving up about half its gains. Australian confidence levels are expected to show an improvement on Tuesday. Westpac Consumer Confidence is projected to rise 1.0% in September after a strong 5.7% gain in August. The NAB Business Confidence has been moving higher and is expected to rise in August to 8 points from 7 a month earlier, which was the highest reading since August 2022.Chinese exports slipUS tariffs are taking their toll on China's economy. In August, China's exports to the US fell by 33%. The US and China extended a trade truce in August, but that has still left US tariffs of 55% on Chinese goods and 35% Chinese tariffs on US goods.China is in a deflationary phase and growth has been subdued. This does not bode well for the Australian economy or the Aussie, as China is Australia's largest trading partner. Australia hasn't been hit as hard as other countries by US trade policy, with tariffs of 10% on Australian products, but the US-China trade war could pose a serious headache for Australia's export sector.AUD/USD Technical The Australian dollar tested resistance at 0.6594 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.66330.6551 and 0.6512 are providing support AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 8, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.