This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Bullish acceleration supported rising implied volatility”, published on 2 September 2025.The precious yellow metal has staged the expected bullish breakout above its former all-time high of US$3,500 printed on 22 April 2025. Gold (XAU/USD) rallied by 5.3% to hit a current fresh intraday record high of US$3,655 at the time of writing.Lower opportunity costs reinforced the current bullish acceleration phase of Gold Fig. 1: 10-YR US Treasury real yield major trend with Gold (XAU/USD) as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView). Gold (XAU/USD), as a non-interest-bearing asset, tends to benefit in lower-rate environments. A decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting stronger demand.This dynamic can reinforce bullish momentum, potentially creating a positive feedback loop that drives further price appreciation.Since Fed Chair Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole on 22 August, the 10-year US Treasury real yield (stripping out 10-year inflation expectations derived from the 10-year US Treasury inflation-protected bond) has declined by 19 basis points (bps) to a current level of 1.66% from 1.85% (see Fig. 1).Let’s now examine Gold (XAU/USD)’s latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch. Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias with a key short-term pivotal support at US$3,600 for Gold (XAU/USD). Minor bullish impulsive up move sequence is likely in progress, and a clearance above US$3,670 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$3,697 and US$3,725 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).Key elements The current price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) in place since the 29 August 2025 low of US$3,404, are classified as a bullish acceleration movement depicted by a steeper minor ascending channel.The lower boundary of the steeper minor ascending channel confluences closely with the US$3,500 key short-term pivotal support.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to find support at its parallel ascending support after it exited from its overbought zone in today’s Asia session (9 September).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the US$3,600 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD) invalidates the bullish tone to trigger a deeper minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at US$3,561 and US$3,536. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Benefitting from a weak nonfarm payrolls report last week, recent demand for precious metals has secured a fresh yearly high for silver, trading at around $41.2708 at the time of writing.Silver trades +0.68% higher in today's session.Silver (XAG/USD): Key takeaways from today’s session With last week’s price action representing silver’s best weekly performance since early June, US labour data significantly missing expectations has further increased rate cut bets, benefitting non-yielding precious metalsOtherwise, persistent inflation, spiralling US debt, and generalised lack of economic confidence are offering a significant tailwind to silver pricingSilver (XAG/USD): September Fed rate cut virtually ‘nailed-on’ after poor labour data Ending last week in spectacular fashion, August’s NFP report fell short of expectations significantly, offering some upside to silver, which endedComing in some 50,000 openings below consensus, at 22k, the result not only represents a worse-than-expected result, but also signifies the fourth consecutive month where job growth has been virtually flat.While this is, quite literally, yesterday’s news, the report has all but confirmed that the Federal Reserve will cut target rates in its upcoming decision, aiming to kickstart an otherwise struggling labour market.Notwithstanding, recent dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve has also fed into the same narrative. CME FedWatch, 08/09/2025 At the time of writing, CME FedWatch rates a 25 bps cut at an 88.4% probability, which indicates a rare level of confidence in the Fed’s next decision.As expected, a non-yielding asset such as silver stands to benefit from any suggestion that rate cuts are becoming more likely, as proven by price action on Friday. At least for now, upside seems to have continued somewhat into this week’s trading.Silver (XAG/USD): Safe-haven flows and inflationary pressures still at play While the dollar looks set to continue its downtrend, it would be fair to say markets remain wary of the US economy, in no small part thanks to questions surrounding current sovereign debt, trade agreements and inflation.For now, these questions largely remain unanswered. This uncertainty dampens risk appetite, significantly boosting precious metal gains, a phenomenon seen for much of this year.In the latter case, sticky inflation, at least in a vacuum, is favourable for silver pricing, with many looking to precious metals as a means of hedging inflation. While heightened inflation can sometimes be met with a rate hike, typically silver negative, a struggling labour market will almost certainly force the Fed’s hand in cutting rates this time around.Coupled with renewed safe-haven flows on general recession fears, at least in the short term, one outcome is a two-sided tailwind helping bolster further precious metal gains - silver included.Silver (XAG/USD): Technical analysis - 08/09/2025 Silver (XAG/USD), OANDA, TradingView, 08/09/2025 On the daily timeframe, current price action remains well supported. If price can stay above $40.60, bulls will likely target $42.72 in the near term Read the latest coverage from MarketPulse: US indices remain uncertain ahead of CPI data – S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones outlook Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday provided a wide range of reactions, between the initial increased-rate cuts pricing boost to rising fears of an economic downturn in the world's largest economy.Uncertainty in the US continues as participants await Wednesday's PPI release (last month was a surprise, renewing tariff-led inflations fears) and more importantly, Thursday's CPI data.Friday's US Labor release have only confirmed one round of the multiple headwinds coming up for Markets – The US Dollar is stalling its descent against majors as a potential beat on inflation expectations would disallow a 50 bps cut in the 17th of September FOMC Meeting.In the meantime, Nasdaq is bringing stronger flows in today's session as equity index sentiment is holding even with Gold casually making new all-time highs – A piece will be release this early afternoon to spot potential hurdles to this rally.Let's have a look at an intraday picture for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the lagging Dow Jones. Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook – Moving forward from NFP, onto Inflation weekWTI Oil Rallies 1.8% as Russian Supply Concerns Outweigh Modest OPEC + Output HikeTechnical analysis for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow JonesNasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Late Friday dip buying has helped the tech-heavy index just around the pre-NFP level.It seems that the current bull-trend is resilient despite the shift in economic certainty, which doesn't frighten tech-stocks due to their way of generating income: Even broke, people will still watch videos and scroll pages, producing adversing revenues.Names like Oracle, Amazon, Broadcom and Palantir (surprise comeback?) is dragging Nasdaq above its competitors.Watch 23,867 as bulls are pushing towards the pre-NFP – Odds of a clear breakout before the mid-week inflation data is of low probabilities but everything is possible these days!Nasdaq technical levels of interest Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time Highs 23,986NFP highs 23,86724,250 potential resistance at middle of upward channelSupport LevelsDaily lows 23,69123,000 Key Support22,700 support at NFP lowsEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart S&P 500 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The dip-buying seen in Nasdaq also spread to the S&P 500, but to a lower extent.The index would be more affected than its tech-focused peer by a slowdown in the labor market, nonetheless, as long as prices remain within the 6,490 to 6,512 Pivot, the price action is balanced.A break above would relaunch the push to further all-time highs while a failure to hold the pivot zone could bring stronger profit-taking.Everything will depend on Wednesday and Thursday's inflation data points.S&P 500 technical levels of interest Resistance LevelsFriday and NFP 6,533 All-time highs6,570 to 6,600 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension)Way higher Fib-extension potential resistance from 6,650 to 6,700Support Levels6,490 to 6,512 pivot6,400 Main Support6,300 psychological support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Dow Jones 4H Chart Dow Jones 4H Chart, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView Last week's still contracting ISM Manufacturing PMI report followed by the NFP report haven't helped the Dow.The index focuses on US manufacturing and production, which would get battered in an economic downturn. Particularly with tariffs hitting US Producers, expectations are getting lower for the US 30 compared to its younger-tech brothers. Bulls have brought it back from a retest of its 45,280 previous ATH level which helps to confirm the ongoing range (see on chart, check the triple retest of the ATH) and points to sideways action until Wednesday's PPI data.The 45,000 is the key handle to look for as a gauge for buyer-tenacity or a reversal in technical and fundamental sentiment, keep a close eye on this.Dow Jones technical levels of interest Levels for Dow Jones tradingResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 45,765ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,400 to 46,850Support LevelsLow of imminent consolidation 45,280Key Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6588, up 0.49% on the day. Earlier, the Australian dollar climbed to a daily high of 0.6598, its highest level since July 25.The US dollar ended the week broadly lower, as investors dumped the greenback after the soft US employment report. August nonfarm payrolls fell to 22 thousand, well below the revised market estimate of 79 thousand and lower than the July gain of 75 thousand. The Australian dollar rose as much as 1.1% on Friday before giving up about half its gains. Australian confidence levels are expected to show an improvement on Tuesday. Westpac Consumer Confidence is projected to rise 1.0% in September after a strong 5.7% gain in August. The NAB Business Confidence has been moving higher and is expected to rise in August to 8 points from 7 a month earlier, which was the highest reading since August 2022.Chinese exports slipUS tariffs are taking their toll on China's economy. In August, China's exports to the US fell by 33%. The US and China extended a trade truce in August, but that has still left US tariffs of 55% on Chinese goods and 35% Chinese tariffs on US goods.China is in a deflationary phase and growth has been subdued. This does not bode well for the Australian economy or the Aussie, as China is Australia's largest trading partner. Australia hasn't been hit as hard as other countries by US trade policy, with tariffs of 10% on Australian products, but the US-China trade war could pose a serious headache for Australia's export sector.AUD/USD Technical The Australian dollar tested resistance at 0.6594 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.66330.6551 and 0.6512 are providing support AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 8, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen is in positive territory on Monday. In the European sesssion, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, down 0.35% on the day.Japan's economy expands 2.2% in Q2 The week has started on a positive note in Japan, as GDP for the second quarter was revised sharply higher to 2.2% y/y, up from the initial reading of 1.0% and above the Q1 gain of 0.3%.This was the fastest pace of growth since Q3 2024, as private consumption was higher, in part due to government subsidies for rice and energy. Exports were higher as firms rushed to ship to the US before the blanket 15% tariffs kicked in. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 0.5%, up from the initial reading of 0.3%. The increase in exports could be short-lived, as the US tariffs are making Japanese exports more expensive. Tariffs concerns could delay the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, and third-quarter GDP will help gauge the effect of the tariffs on Japan's economy.The political uncertainty in Japan is another factor which supports the BoJ staying on the sidelines. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has resigned after a disastrous election in which Ishiba's coalition lost its majority in the lower house of parliament. It remains unclear who will replace Ishiba, with a leadership vote expected in October. US nonfarm payrolls fall to 22 thousandUS nonfarm payrolls disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021.The money markets responded to the weak nonfarm payrolls report by fully pricing in a rate cut at next week's meeting, with a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut and a 10% chance of a half-point cut, according to CME's FedWatch. Prior to the jobs release, there was a 0% chance of a half-point cut.USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY is testing support at 147.60. Next, there is support at 146.62There is resistance at 148.37 and 149.35 USDJPY 1-Day Chart, September 8, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets had been desperately awaiting the Non-Farm Payrolls report before making their next move. Yet even after the release, uncertainty remains.Non-Farm Payrolls and their impact on the upcoming weeks Markets had been waiting for today for a while. This Friday brought us the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report for August, and the numbers were certainly a surprise.The consequential miss—with just 22K new jobs vs 75K exp, and further downward revisions—paints a degrading picture for the labor market.While this would have spurred an immediate risk-off reaction, stocks opened slightly higher, but the reaction quickly shifted when the US equity markets opened, and the 10:00 A.M. bell brought strong profit-taking flows.Major US Indices are closing off their highs despite the increased rate cut bets.The 2-year yield has plummeted to its lowest level since April's Liberation Day trough, and markets are pricing in even more cuts for the year—currently just a bit below 75 basis points. There are three meetings left for the year.With the Fed now entering its pre-FOMC blackout period, Markets will scrutinize any tweet from Nick Timiraos from the WSJ for clues on the upcoming decision. He previously hinted at last-minute calls from the FED to redirect wrongly priced markets during the hike cycle.While interest rate markets start to price in a 50 basis point cut, that probability remains low, hovering around 10%The prospect of aggressive Fed cuts is holding risk appetite from a more risk-off tone across all asset classes, but metals and bonds are painting a picture of a softer economy.Weekly performance from different asset classes Weekly Asset Performance, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has been surprisingly holding strong despite the further pricing for cuts, very close to unchanged throughout the week and even after today's disappointing NFP release.In terms of other assets, stocks and cryptocurrencies are still trading in a hesitant but upward path – Next week's open will be crucial to spot how participants envision the upcoming CPI and PPI reports. More details on this below.The best performers of this week have largely been the Metals, with the most-traded Gold and Silver pushing to new highs, with both up 4% on the week. As a matter of fact, Gold marked some new all-time highs ($3,600!) and is closing at its highs, a strong sign of continuation for next-week.On the other hand, increased supply prospects are really not helping Oil which was subject to a decent rebound last week but is down 3.5% (due to continued Russia-Ukraine war and OPEC+ rising their output) throughout this weekly trading, back to its mid-month $62 support. Read More:US Indices technicals as they open higher despite the miss in NFP – Cuts pricing boost stocks but sellers appearEUR/USD Breaks Channel as Rate Cut Bets Ramp Up… Potential 370 Pip Rally Incoming?The Week Ahead – Moving towards Inflation week and key trade data from China Trading has picked up again after a dull August – and as per usual, September offers intense volatility.This phenomenon is picking up with the upcoming September 17th FOMC Meeting, which now offers at 100% pricing for a 25bps and maybe more.Asia Pacific Markets - Trade data from China: Tariffs may now start to show in the numbers Asia-Pacific markets head into a heavy week of data with Japan, China, and Australia all on deck which should provide a clearer picture of the impact of tariffs.Japan kicks things off Sunday evening with a batch of Q2 GDP releases (quarterly, annualized, and the deflator) alongside the Current Account balance. Yen may find some relief from the increase US cut prospects, but that is still to see in next week's trading.At the same time, China releases its August trade data (exports, imports, and the trade balance in both CNY and USD terms).As a reminder, these numbers often set the tone for commodity-linked FX like the AUD and NZD.Monday brings Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence print, a useful gauge of sentiment before more heavyweight Chinese data arrives.On Tuesday, China is back in focus with CPI and PPI for August—inflation metrics that could confirm whether deflationary pressures are persisting or starting to ease.These releases will carry weight not just for China’s policy outlook but also for regional risk appetite.Finally, on Thursday, New Zealand drops its Business NZ PMI, an important look at whether the Kiwi economy is keeping pace with regional peers.All told, Japan’s growth data, China’s trade and inflation prints, and Australia’s sentiment survey will dominate the conversation across Asia, while New Zealand quietly rounds out the APAC week with its own manufacturing snapshot.US, Europe and UK Markets - US Inflation and the ECB Rate Decision In the US, eyes are glued to August inflation prints: PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday.Both will be decisive in showing how much of the recent tariff-led inflation is flowing into prices.Last month’s PPI spike was a wake-up call, and another upside surprise would force markets to reassess the Fed’s cutting path.The usual Jobless Claims, U-of-Mich consumer sentiment, and the Monthly Budget Statement follow, but inflation is really the dominant theme.In Europe, the calendar is also busy. German Industrial Production and the Eurozone Trade Balance open the week, before focus shifts to Thursday’s ECB policy decision.Except for a major surprise, rates in Europe are for now still expected to stay put for this year (almost no cut priced in).On Friday, the Eurozone Harmonized CPI will add another inflation datapoint just as markets parse US figures.The UK and Canada, by contrast, are quieter. The UK has no major releases, while Canada steps back after this week’s atrocious labor report. Sterling and the loonie will likely trade off USD’s reaction to US inflation and the leftover reactions to the NFP data.With tariffs clearly bleeding into producer prices and consumers not far behind, the upcoming week may well define whether markets are correct in the increasing pricing Fed cuts—or if the inflation story isn’t done yet. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Markets Today: Japan PM Resigns, Gold Above $3600/oz, China Exports Miss Forecasts, FTSE 100 Holds at SupportOil prices have risen as much as 1.8% at the start of the week as Oil pares last week's losses. The rally this morning has come as a surprise to some quarters after eight OPEC + members agreed to lift output by 137,000 bpd from October.However, the move by OPEC + was seen as more modest than expected and thus saw market participants shrug off the potential consequences. On top of that, markets are focused on the possibility of more sanctions on Russian crude.after Russia hit Ukraine with its biggest air attack since the start of the war.For now, concerns around Russian supply are keeping Oil prices supported.Russia-Ukraine Developments Frederic Lasserre, an expert from the energy trading company Gunvor, stated on Monday that new sanctions against countries that buy Russian oil could disrupt the global oil supply.This comes after Russia carried out its largest air attack of the Ukraine war over the weekend, which set fire to a government building in Kyiv and killed at least four people, according to Ukrainian officials.On Sunday, Donald Trump said that several European leaders would visit the U.S. to talk about how to solve the conflict.Over the weekend, the investment bank Goldman Sachs released a note saying it expects a slightly larger surplus of oil in 2026. They believe that increased oil production in the Americas will be greater than the decrease in supply from Russia and the stronger demand worldwide. Goldman Sachs kept its oil price forecast for 2025 the same, and for 2026, it predicts the average price for Brent crude to be $56 a barrel and for West Texas Intermediate crude to be $52 a barrel.OPEC + Production Increases as Saudi Arabia Strategy Pivot Continues OPEC+, a group of major oil producers led by Saudi Arabia, announced a surprise plan to increase oil production. Although this might seem like a risk to a market that already has too much oil, the actual effect on prices will likely be small.The decision is more about politics. Saudi Arabia is using this to show its leadership, gain a bigger share of the market, and strengthen its relationship with the U.S.The group agreed to gradually undo 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts that were supposed to last until the end of 2026. They will increase their output by 137,000 barrels per day in October. At this rate, it will take them a year to fully reverse those cuts. Source: LSEG While the market is expected to have a surplus of oil due to increased production from countries like the U.S. and Argentina, the actual amount of new oil added by OPEC+ will probably be less than announced. This is because most members are already producing as much as they can.However, Saudi Arabia is a major exception. It has a lot of extra production capacity, unlike Russia, which is limited by sanctions. This puts Saudi Arabia in a strong position to increase its market share, especially from U.S. oil companies that may slow down production as prices fall.This pivot by Saudi Arabia has been something which has been building over the past few months. The strategy does seem to be a sound one and time will tell whether the Saudis will reap the benefits.For now though, this move may keep further Oil price gains in check as oversupply concerns also remain a concern. WTI Oil Daily Chart, September 8, 2025 From a technical analysis standpoint, Oil is eyeing a recovery after last week's selloff.However, the fundm=amentals might continue to keep a prolonged rally in check as uncertainties continue to dominate the agenda. Immediate resistance rests at the 100-day MA which rests at 64.65 before the 66.15 and 67.30 handles come into focus.A move lower from current prices, could bring last week's swing low around 61.50 before the 60.70 and the YTD low at 55.10 come into focus. WTI Oil Daily Chart, September 8, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are long on WTI with 89% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are long means WTI prices could decline in the near-term. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Recovers but the Outlook Remains Murky. WIll NFP Data Serve as a Catalyst?EUR/USD finally got the catalyst it needed to break the channel that price had been holding since the back end of July.August 22 and September 1 both saw EUR/USD attempt to break beyond the channel but the move was met with swift selling pressure. This led many to believe that a catalyst may be needed to inspire a breakout as the pair saw a lot of choppy price action over the last month.Jobs Report Weighs on the US Dollar Non farm payrolls rose only about 22k while economists guessed near 75k. There were about 29k upward revisions for the last two months, yet even after adding them the total still looks like a small miss.Unemployment edged up to 4.3 percent from 4.2 percent, which was kind of expected, but under employment, workers who want more hours climbed faster to 8.1 percent from 7.9 percent.Hours worked fell roughly to 34.2 per week and wage growth slipped to 3.7 percent year over year instead of 3.9 percent, so softness appears everywhere.Read more: US Non-Farm Payrolls finally release and they miss! 22K vs 75K consensus, Canadian Jobs data regress (-65K vs +10K)Over the last two‑and‑a‑half years almost nine‑tenths of new jobs came from just three fields: government, private health and education, plus leisure‑hospitality.If you strip those three out, payroll numbers have actually slipped for four straight months, hinting at problems in sectors usually called growth engines of the U.S. economy.As things stand, serious concerns are starting to be raised by consumers around the health of the US economy. Consumers expect the labor market situation to deteriorate rather than get any better.According to recent University of Michigan data, 62% of Americans think unemployment will rise over the next 12 months while only 13% think it will fall. This gives a net reading of 49% who expect unemployment to rise. We’ve only seen worse readings on four occasions in the past 50 or so years, as seen in the chart below. Source: ING Think Implications for the FED Market participants have for the first time begun pricing in the probability of a 50 bps rate cut in September. This has been one of the biggest reasons for the US Dollar weakness we are seeing today.According to LSEG data at the time of writing, markets were pricing in around 11% probability of a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. This has in part led to a slide in the US Dollar and seen Gold prices attract haven bids. Source: LSEG The uncertainties and the potential for a recession are definitely rising and this could also be why haven demand has remained strong.The Fed’s Beige Book released this week read grim, and that helped spark a 50 bp cut last year. Yet the current makeup of the Fed looks cautious, and the shadow of tariffs and inflation adds uncertainty. It is likely that a majority for another 50 bps cut won’t form, though two or three members could vote for it.Policy Divergence to Aid the Euro Through December 2025 The Euro may also gain an advantage as policy divergence comes into play. Let me explain, the ECB may still cut rates once more this year but that is about it.The Fed are noow scheduled for two rate cuts and potentially if the job market worsens, three rate cuts this year if not an early one in 2026. This sets the Euro up handsomely to gain further ground against the greenback.The Eruo Area economy is grappling with its own challenges though so the narrative could change. For now though the outlook does favor further gains for the Euro against the Greenback.Looking Ahead Market participants will now turn their attention to a slew of high impact data releases next week from the US.PPI, CPI and University of Michigan data will all be released and could have a further impact on rate cut expectations. A softer than expected CPI and PPI print could see the bets for a 50 bps rate cut in September rise and further bolster the Euro.Also keep an eye out for comments from Federal Reserve policymakers and how they receive and interpret today's data release. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Technical Analysis - EUR/USD EUR/USD is breaking the channel on the four hour chart which has been in play since late July.We have seen two attempts to break the channel fail and this time the NFP data may be the catalyst.A four-hour candle close above the channel has occurred and if the pattern for channel breaks is to conclude it could result in a potential 370 pip upside rally.This could put EUR/USD around the 1.2100 mark should it come to fruition.Now there are a host of fundamental factors discussed above which support the move. There is also a few that do not, so bear that in mind moving forward.Looking at the period-14 RSI and it is currently in extremely overbought territory. This could lead to a short-term pullback before the bulls continue to move higher.Looking at the four-hour chart and the swing low at 1.1631 will hold the key for me. A four-hour candle break and close below this level would have me reevaluating the pair.As long as this level remains support, the potential for a rally remains in play. Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets got the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls number for August. With the consequential miss (22K vs 75K exp) and further downward revisions, the picture is bleak but stocks open slightly higher. There is immediate selling from profit-taking however, keep an eye on this.Some analysts report that the FED would have comfortably cut by 50 bps if it wasn't for the US Tariffs that have just started to impact the data.The 2Y yield is now at the lowest since April 2025 (Liberation Day trough) and Markets are still pricing more cuts for the year: Currently at 75 bps for the year and still rising.With the FED entering its Blackout Period (no interviews on Economic or financial policies until the FOMC), any comments from WSJ's Timiraos will have to be closely monitored for tips to the upcoming decision – He is the FED's unofficial spokesperson. US 2-Year Yield, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Enough talks about rates, the focus of this piece is to look at the US Indices which are opening green throughout the board.FED Interest Rate cuts prospects are boosting the risk-appetite despite a lower projected immediate economic progress, but remember that Stock Markets ≠ the Economy. Let's have a look at S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones levels.US Indices chart and technical levelsS&P 500 breaks a new all-time high but momentum starts to slow down S&P 500 4H Chart, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P is leading all indices on its way higher, with the global scope of stocks rising from the cheaper financing prospects of further rate cuts, the 500-best US companies flex their muscle.One thing to consider is that despite algos trying to push the price higher, some profit-taking seems to be happening around immediate trading levels.The day is far from over and you can expect volatility to keep rising as participants place their bets.Look at 6,539, a key Fibonacci level: A large push above would confirm the up-move while rejecting there should lead to some further profit-taking flows.Current levels for S&P 500 trading Levels for S&P 500 tradingResistance Levelssession highs 6,533 All-time highs6,539 breakout/resistance level6,570 to 6,600 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension)Way higher Fib-extension potential resistance from 6,650 to 6,700Support Levels6,490 to 6,512 ATH resistance (broken) now pivot6,400 Main Support6,300 psychological support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (NFP Lows)Nasdaq is back on track to retest its all-time highs but shows hesitancy Nasdaq 4H Chart, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The tech-focused index, largely the winner for this year, is now starting to slow down a bit compared to its other peers – Nonetheless, it is still heading towards a test of its prior peak.Sellers just above the highs of the range mentioned in our pre-NFP analysis and it will be essential to watch if buyers do manage to push the index to retest the 23,986 ATH.For now, the Nasdaq is showing mixed signs – Look for a break above (23,867) today's highs or below the pre-data CFD lows (23,691)Current levels for Nasdaq trading Levels for Nasdaq tradingResistance LevelsCurrent All-time Highs 23,986Daily highs 23,86724,250 potential resistance at middle of upward channel (broken?)Support LevelsDaily lows 23,69123,000 Key Support22,700 support at NFP lowsEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportDow Jones forming a triple top Dow Jones 4H Chart, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Still constrained within its rising wedge, the Dow raced to retest its All-time highs (45,765) but with buyers failing to push above, a short-term triple top is forming.Sellers are currently appearing however as buyer strength is exhausting.The MA 50 (45,434) which was used as a bottom in yesterday's session will be acting as key support.Current levels for Dow Jones trading Levels for Dow Jones tradingResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 45,765ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,400 to 46,850Support Levels4H MA 50 45,434Previous ATH resistance zone, now pivot 45,000 to 45,280Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound has pushed higher on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3519, up 0.66% on the day. About half the pound's gains have come following today's weak US nonfarm payrolls report.UK retail sales accelerate in JulyIt was a good-news-bad news retail sales report out of the UK today. July retail sales rose a respectable 0.6% m/m, up from a downwardly revised 0.3% in June and higher than the market estimate of 0.2%. The improvement was driven by warm weather and the women's European soccer championship. The bad news was the sharp downward corrections to the the previous months' data. Retail sales for June was revised lower to 0.3% from 0.9%.Annualized retail sales posted a with a gain of 1.1%, missing the market estimate of 1.3%. This was above the June reading of 0.9%, which was revised from 1.7%.US NFP misses bigAll eyes were on today's US nonfarm payrolls, which disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021.Employers remain cautious about hiring in an uncertain economic environment and the Trump tariffs aren't helping to restore confidence.This key employment release has taken on double significance, coming shortly before the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 17. There could be calls for the Fed to consider a jumbo half-point cut as the labor market is cooling quickly, although the most likely scenario is a modest quarter-point cut.GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD has pushed above several resistance lines and is testing 1.3499. Next, there is resistance at 1.35521.3415 and 1.3395 are providing support GBPUSD 1-Day Chart, September 5, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The monthly release for US August jobs is at 22K vs 75K Expectations – Job growth is almost flat in the past 4 months!The prior month came at 74K vs 110K expectations, but the biggest surprise was to the downside revisions which turned a 291K increase in two months to an-only 33K increase.With the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, there really is a decent slowdown happening in the US.EDIT: As things are unfolding, the Market is pricing a 100% chance of a cut on September 17 and starting to price chances of a 50 bps (currently around 14%).July Jobs revised at 79K (vs 74K) and June months actually at -12K vs 14K on the second revisions.Canadian jobs also regressed quite largely at -65K vs 10K expectations, sending the Loonie down vs other majors.The US Dollar is falling off, about to break support, equities are rallying but mixed : a more than 25 bps is starting to price but still has low probabilities of happening.The data still shows an increase, albeit a very small one.Check out the reactions to the US Dollar, a few FX Charts and Equities Futures. Read More:Markets Today: UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates, Trump Signs Japan Deal, FTSE 100 Bounces Off 100-Day MA. NFP NextSilver nears its all-time highs, where to look next? XAG higher timeframe outlookMarket reactions Market overview, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView It will be essential to log in after the Market open to see reactions when most volumes enter the market.For now, it's USD and CAD down, risk-assets up but mixed, US Treasuries and Gold flying higher.Current FX Picture after NFP FX currency performance, September 5, 2025 – Source: Finviz Look at the current pricing for FOMC Cuts for the rest of the year: Cut Pricing for the rest of the year – Source: FEDWatch Tool Markets just added about 17 bps of extra cut pricing to the rest of the year, which takes the 2.1 cuts to just about 3 cuts.Let's see how this progresses and what influence it will have on Markets.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3793, down 0.19% on the day. We could see stronger movement from the Canadian dollar later in the day, as Canada and the US release the August employment reports.Canada's employment expected to reboundCanada's labor market took a beating in July, with the loss of 40.8 thousand jobs, including 10 thousand job losses in manufacturing. The markets expect a rebound in August, with an estimate of 7.5 thousand new jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 7.0% from 6.9%. The weak July reading was directly attributable to the US tariffs, which have hurt the Canadian economy. The US has slapped 35% tariffs on many Canadian products and Canada ships some 75% of its export to its southern neighbor. The two sides are yet to reach a trade agreement but Canada can ill afford a protracted trade war with the US.Markets brace for weak US NFPAll eyes are on today's US employment report. With inflation largely under control, nonfarm payrolls are closely monitored and could move the US dollar.The markets are expecting virtually no change in nonfarm payrolls, with an estimate of 73 thousand for August after a gain of 75 thousand in July. The labor market is clearly cooling as employers remain cautious in an uncertain economic environment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 4.3% from 4.2%, which would be the highest level since December 2021.The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to lower rates at the September 17 meeting, but a weak nonfarm payrolls report would likely lead to calls for the Fed to respond with a jumbo half-point cut.USD/CAD Technical USDCAD has pushed below support at 1.3798 and is testing 1.3798. Below, there is support at 1.3784There is resistance at 1.3819 and 1.3826 USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, September 5, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This article is an update to an end-August Silver (XAG) piece. Read More: Silver (XAG) and other metals in focus as the Federal Reserve independance gets challenged Silver has outshined its peers in terms of performance, bolstered by the increasingly-menaced FED independence and Gold also rallying to new all-time highs. Metals comparative performance since August 2025 – Source: TradingView The fundamentals are not changing: Markets are still anxious about the future outlook for the US Dollar with the Trump Administration's US Exceptionalism policy.As time progressed, and despite some harsh tariffs that will start to bite into US Importers' profits, it seems that Markets were putting less emphasis on such policies with the Dollar Index stopping its early-2025 fall-off.The US Dollar's status as reserve currency is still far from being replaced.Nonetheless, firms and central banks have been looking for ways to diversify from risks to the Greenback and related assets like US Treasuries (still largely the most liquid non-cash asset).Geopolitic events such as the most recent Chinese Military Parade (the largest ever), celebrating the 80 years since the end of WW2 and hosting Vladimir Putin and Kim-Jong Un are also such testaments of the tone changing a little – The next 10 years are going to be interesting.Anyway, let's log in to a few Silver charts, to see what are the bigger picture trends and get levels ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release. Read More: Markets Already Looking to NFPSilver higher-timeframe technical analysisSilver (XAG) Monthly chart Silver Monthly Chart, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver is progressively spiking towards the August 2011 highs after breaking the $40 psychological barrier.A Monthly ascending channel comes at a confluence with August 2011 highs ($44 to $44.50) and may act as a longer-timeframe profit-taking area.On the other hand, depending on the global outlook and any further geopolitical/dollar-led tensions, a further breakout above the upper bound is possible towards a retest of the previous ATH (still far from now, but holds a decent probability).The Daily picture during 2011 spikes A Daily chart of the April to October 2011 Period – Source: TradingView You can observe on this 2011 look-back how some key areas that will soon be tested either to the upside or downside and should influence upcoming flows for XAG trading.One of the only scenario that would restrain the ongoing rally would be a very strong Non-Farm Payrolls which would lead to huge US Dollar rallies and a consequent profit-taking in metals.For the rest, as expected should maintain the current-trend/consolidation period around the $40 pivot.Any miss should boost Silver's momentum (the extent of the miss will influence the extent of the rally)The current Daily picture with the 2011 support/resistance levels Silver Daily chart (current trading), September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver has recently broken out of its weekly channel, indicating how strong the current trend is. The end-August to beginning September moves have been surprising.Tomorrow's release and the September FOMC will shape up future demand for metals and will have huge influence on upcoming flows.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:$41.45 recent highs$42 psychological level$43 to $44 potential resistanceAugust 2011 $44.25 topSupport Levels:$39.50 to $40 key pivot zoneSupport 38 to $38.52012 Highs Support around 37.50Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3177, down 0.19% on the day.The pound has been busy and moved higher on Wednesday, with gains of 0.42%. This followed massive losses of 1.1% a day earlier, after UK gilts surged to a 27-year high. Bank of England Governor Bailey testified before the Treasury Committee hearings on Wednesday. Bailey said that he expected interest rates would continue to move "downwards gradually over time" but that there was "considerably more doubt" as to when the BoE would lower rates.Members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee are split over monetary policy. MPC member Alan Taylor, who joined Bailey at today's hearing, said he favors four or five rate cuts a year, a much more dovish stance than Bailey. Taylor also said that the UK economy was heading for a 'soft landing' but was fragile.The BoE is stuck between a rock and a hard place, as the economy is weak and could use a rate cut, but inflation has accelerated and hit 3.8%, close to double the BoE's target of 2%. Last month, the BoE had to go through two rounds of voting before deciding to cut rates after a close 5-4 vote. The BoE meets next on September 18.The US releases a key non-farm payroll report on Friday, ahead of the Fed meeting on September 17. The market estimate stands at 75 thousand, almost unchanged from the July gain of 73 thousand, which was well below expectations. Another weak reading would likely lead to voices calling for the Fed to deliver a jumbo half-point cut at the upcoming meeting.GBP/USD Technical GBPUSD has pushed below support at 1.3441 and tested 1.3422 earlier. The next support level is 1.3404There is resistance at 1.3459 and 1.3478 GBPUSD 4-Hour Chart, September 4, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US ISM Services PMIs just got released at 52 vs 51 expectations, a positive surprise. US PMIs – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Prices paid are still way too high for a comfortably dovish FED, but it seems like this component isn't accelerating anymore.For the rest, nothing shocking: The employment component is still in contraction but not disastrous and new orders are increasing again, a positive after the tariff-led decrease.You can access today's ISM report right here.Next step will be tomorrow's NFP release which will shape up, with the September FOMC Meeting (September 18), the tone for the rest of the year.Don't forget to stay in touch with the views from NY FED's Williams coming up at 12:05 (holds high influence on the FED and votes at every meeting) and later today Goolsbee's meetings (voter in 2025).For now the US picture looks like a cooling one (far from catastrophic!). Except for a major downward surprise tomorrow, there shouldn't be any reason to panic.Reactions are small: A global market view Market Overview, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Market reactions are very muted as Participants stay put for tomorrow's session – Anxiety is still high.Only notable move would be Cryptocurrencies still seeing some profit-taking flows.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Swiss franc has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8052, down 0.13% on the day.Swiss CPI declines in August Swiss inflation declined in August for the first time since January. CPI slipped 0.1%, following the July reading of zero and the market estimate of zero. Yearly, CPI rose 0.2%, unchanged from July and in line with the market estimate.The soft inflation report could support the case for the Swiss National Bank to return to negative interest rates. The SNB had a negative rate policy in effect for eight consecutive years until 2022, when high inflation forced the bank to sharply tighten policy. The markets widely expect the SNB to hold rates at this month's meeting, but if inflation continues to sag, there will be pressure on the central bank to lower rates. SNB President Martin Schlegel has stressed in the past that the central bank could revert back to negative rates if necessary but would try to avoid doing so since it causes difficulties for businesses and consumers.The SNB is also keeping a close eye on the value of the Swiss franc. The Swiss currency has soared against the US dollar, gaining 11.3% since the start of the year. In June, USD/CHF fell below the psychologically significant 0.80 level for the first time 2011. The central bank does not want the franc to continue appreciating, since it means that Swiss exports are more expensive and thus less competitive.US tariffs have dealt a blow to the export-reliant Swiss economy. Switzerland has had to absorb US tariffs of 39% on most goods, which has put the country at a serious disadvantage against the neighboring European Union, which faces tariffs of only 15% on most goods.The US releases a critical non-farm payroll report on Friday, ahead of the Fed meeting on September 17. The market estimate stands at 75 thousand, almost unchanged from the July gain of 73 thousand, which was well below expectations. Another weak reading would likely lead to voices calling for the Fed to deliver a jumbo half-point cut at the upcoming meeting.USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8045. Next, there is resistance at 0.8054 and 0.80640.8035 and 0.8026 are providing support USDCHF 4-Hour Chart, September 4, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

ADP Private Employment data This morning's data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar In the long awaiting for tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls release, Participants can't get enough of more labor data, particularly as ADP employment recently turned out to be a more accurate preview of the US Employment trends (as large revisions to NFP later confirmed. The report came at 54K vs 65K expectations a relatively small miss, but miss nonetheless – and this report reiterates the ongoing downtrend in private employment. ADP Employment in the past 3 years, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingEconomics Read More: Hesitant equities and (maybe) better relations between US and Canada — North American mid-week Market updateMarkets Already Looking to NFPJobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs The Jobless claims rose to 237K from 230K, with the continuing claims still hanging around November 2021 levels. Continuing Claims since 2023 – A steep rise – Source: TradingEconomics The FED will still be appreciating the Unit Labor Cost data which came at 1% instead of 1.6%, which will help with inflationary pressures.In case you didn’t know, Unit Labor Costs measure how much businesses pay workers to produce one unit of output. Rising costs signal wage pressures and potential inflation, while falling costs suggest easing price pressures.Market reactions are very slow as Markets seem to not exaggerate tomorrow's NFP release which may still differentiate largely from this morning's reports.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Baseline: +74k NFP; unemployment rising to 4.3% from 4.2%.July: +73k with -258k net downward revisions; mounting political pressure on the BLS.Labour demand is cooling: Atlanta Fed Job-Switchers wage growth 4.3% y/y; NFIB shows vacancies easier to fill.Implications: tilts toward a 17 Sep Fed cut; risks from upside surprises and data-quality uncertainty. The August employment report is likely to confirm a cooling in labour demand and reinforce a dovish signal for the Federal Reserve. We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 74k, with the unemployment rate increasing from 4.2% to 4.3%. US unemployment rate, source: Bloomberg. Lessons from July: data, revisions, and political pressure Last month unsettled markets not only because payroll growth in July was weak at 73k, but also because May and June were revised down by a combined 258k. In response, President Donald Trump accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics of manipulation and dismissed its head the same day. He has nominated the chief economist of a conservative think tank as successor, but the appointment still requires Senate confirmation. This raises concerns about politicisation of the statistical process and the credibility of subsequent releases. US employment change, Bloomberg data. Supply or demand: what is slowing hiring Tighter immigration policy may have constrained labour supply at the margin, but it could be a secondary factor. Evidence points more clearly to softer demand for workers. Household surveys indicate that finding a job has become more difficult. According to the Atlanta Fed, job switchers no longer enjoy higher wage gains than job stayers. The NFIB survey shows small firms are finding it easier to fill vacancies. These signals align with a deceleration in hiring.On the chart of the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker – Job Switchers (i.e., the median wage growth of people who changed jobs over the past year), wage dynamics are steadily slowing to 4.3% year on year in July 2025. This points to a fading job-switching premium and weakening demand for workers, which typically eases wage pressure in services and supports disinflation. The current level is close to conditions seen before the post-pandemic boom, thus arguing for a more accommodative Fed policy. Chart of the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker – Job Switchers, source: Bloomberg August forecast: 74k jobs and a higher unemployment rate Given the scale of recent revisions, the initial print should be read with caution. Market baseline is a 74k increase in payrolls, close to July’s 73k. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the US unemployment rate to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%., reflecting weaker demand for labour.Implications for Fed policy Such an outcome would strengthen the case for a rate cut at the 17 September meeting. Moderating payrolls and a higher jobless rate would support a gradual shift toward easier policy, especially after the sizeable downward revisions weakened the recent labour market narrative. At the same time, uncertainty around the integrity of the statistical process argues for care in interpreting first releases.Market implications Softer labour data would typically pull down front-end yields and reinforce a gentler rate path, which often weighs on the US dollar against risk-sensitive currencies and supports assets that benefit from a lower rate. However, questions about data quality could keep near-term volatility elevated across rates, FX, and equities.Risks and watchpoints Upside surprises in payrolls, particularly if accompanied by firm wage growth, could temper dovish pricing. Another round of negative revisions would deepen the perception of cooling. The interaction between job growth, unemployment, and pay dynamics will determine both the strength and the speed of any policy easing. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USDJPY, one of the most volatile FX pairs is still holding within a tight range as traders turn to metals with Gold making new all-time highs and Silver racing towards a fresh record.FED's Waller appeared with comments this morning, foreshadowing a Rate cut at the upcoming 18th of September FOMC Meeting but the outlook for the pace of cuts is still uncertain.As mentioned in our most recent USDJPY piece, the Bank of Japan would rather the Federal Reserve to move first to reduce the interest rate differential between the US and Japan which is detrimental to the Yen and hurting Japanese citizens' buying power.As a matter of fact, BoJ Governor Ueda met Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba in a bi-annual meeting to discuss Japanese and global market outlooks. With Yields rising strongly (Japan's 20Y and 30Y yields breaking 4 decade highs) while the BoJ tries to hold rates relatively low to stimulate inflation, challenges keep arising for the Yen.Still holding the range strongly, players are looking to confirm the future outlook for the US Dollar which will decide in which direction the pair breaks out, and the answer will come after Friday's Job release. Read More: Dow Jones forms rising wedge ahead of NFP and FED's Waller comments on rate cuts – what it means for the indexUSDJPY 8H Chart and technicals USDJPY 8H Chart, September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView The traditionally volatile pair has been stuck in a 2,000 pip range since the beginning of August, with traders desperately awaiting for a clearer path ahead.US Labor data and the uncertainty it's been holding is hurting trend traders but has helped participants who prefer rangebound conditions.Friday's 8:30 Non-Farm Payrolls release will be more than consequential and has high probability of triggering a breakout.For bulls, look for a break above above the range highs between 148.70 to 149.50 in the case of a strong Friday NFP release (a strong beat would reduce total rate cuts = bullish for the pair)Bears would on the other hand seek for a break below the 146.00 to 146.50 range lows, supported by the 200-period Moving Average (currently at 145.52).Today, the US Dollar is seeing some decent selling after this morning's miss in JOLTS job openings data which confirms the deceleration of the US Job market, the question for Friday is to what extent.Technical levels for USDJPY trading Resistance Levels149.12 daily highsMay range extremes from 148.70 to 149.50 (daily MA 200 in confluence)150.00 to 150.90 July resistance Support LevelsPivot at the 148.00 zone (acting as immediate support, 50H MA in confluence)146.50 key support (200 MA in confluence)145.00 psychological supportSafe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBPUSD has found support after a selloff on Tuesday caused largely by fiscal concerns which has UK gilt yields to edge higher. The 30-year gilts reached a high of 5.595%, the highest level in 25 years.Despite all the concerns around UK Gilt Yields, it is important to note that the selloff was widespread across Europe, with Japan following suit in the Asian session today. The other concern for the Pound stems from fiscal sustainability. Market participants are wondering if the government can fix the budget problem and stop adding more debt without making big, strict changes.Cable dropped to a low on Tuesday around the 1.3440 handle. However, this is a key apport level and it would appear that cable bulls have once again found their legs.Comments by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves that the administration will focus on "bringing inflation and borrowing costs down by keeping a tight grip on day-to-day spending and enforcing fiscal rules", have also provided some relief to the Pound Sterling.Read More: Gold Hits All-Time High Amid Flight to SafetyHowever, given Government plans moving forward there remains more questions than answers. Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to raise 50 billion GBP in taxes in this upcoming budget meaning further pressure on businesses and consumers may be on the horizon.Should the government go ahead with its proposed plans to lower the VAT threshold, this could have an impact on the SME sector and thus damage the UKs attractiveness for investment.All in all the picture for the GBP does not look positive moving forward, especially given my view of further rate cuts from the BoE. I can see GBP struggling in the weeks ahead.US Dollar Index (DXY) and NFP The US dollar index has enjoyed a positive start to the week, but that optimism appears to be fading ahead of the highly anticipated NFP release on Friday.Just a short while ago we heard comments from Federal Reserve Policymaker Rafael Bostic saying “I am not ruling out a September rate cut depending on the coming jobs report and other data.” If you didn't understand the weight of this week's job data I hope these comments shed some light on the fact.The US Dollar is dealing with its own set of challenges and concerns around Fed independence.The DXY at this stage is at a crucial inflection point ahead of the NFP release. A strong print could help the USD recover while weak job numbers could lead the DXY to fresh YTD lows.The technical picture does hint at further upside for the DXY given that we have printed a triple bottom pattern which would hint at further upside.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, September 3, 2025 Source: TradingView Technical Analysis - GBP/USD From a technical point of view, GBP/USD has been stuck in a range between the 1.3584 and 1.3378 since August 7.Market participants will be hoping that the NFP release could be a catalyst to push cable toward a breakout and substantial move, regardless of the direction. Traders after all thrive on volatility.TTodays bounce off support for cable does appear to have some momentum, but the RSI period-14 remains below the 50 handle which hints at bearish momentum.A break above the 50 on the RSI and a potential move above the 1.3500 handle may bring more buyers to the table.Any such move though is highly unlikely ahead of the NFP release.GBP/USD Daily Chart, September 3, 2025 Source: TradingView Client Sentiment Data - GBP/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are long on the GBP/USD with 55% of traders net-long. Much like the range we are seeing on GBP/USD the sentiment data does little to provide any insights except reflect that traders remain indecisive as to Cables next move.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.