The latest CaseShiller housing price index of the 20-largest US cities showed prices up 1.3% year-over-year, just a shade above the +1.2% consensus but a deceleration from the +1.4% y/y reading in September.On a monthly basis, home prices rose 0.3%, beating the +0.1% consensus. The September reading was revised to +0.2% from +0.1%.A separate data set from the FHFA painted a similar picture with prices up 1.7% year-over-year nationally. That number was the lowest in 13 years. It's a weak data point to cap off a miserable year for home builders. There is some regional disparity with Mid-Atlantic prices rising 5.3% and lower Midwest prices down 0.7% y/y.The silver lining is that it improves affordability for home buyers, at least in inflation-adjusted terms. Home affordability is a major and growing political issue.Trump promised "aggressive' housing reform next year, though few details have leaked.“There are a lot of things that we can do with regulations to try to help get stuff approved quicker,” said National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Fox Business. “And we can also do things like reward states that make it easier for people to build a new home.” At the same time, Trump acknowledge the conflict of improving affordability while preserving home values."I don't want to knock those numbers down, because I want them to continue to have a big value for their house. At the same time, I want to make it possible for young people out there and other people to buy housing," he said."In other words, you create a lot of housing all of a sudden, and it drives the housing prices down. So I want to take care of the people that have houses that have a value to their house that they never thought possible, that have sort of made them wealthy and happy, and especially in their later years. Got to be careful with that. I want to keep them up. At the same time, I want to make it possible for people to go buy houses," he continued.That's a tough needle to thread but one thing Trump is sure to do is try to drive down borrowing costs, something he will lean on a new Fed chair to do. He also floated the idea of suing Fed chair Powell on Monday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There has been a lot of talk lately about the rise in U.S. debt, and rightly so. This year alone, it has increased by more than $2 trillion. What is even more worrying is that interest payments on the debt continue to rise. According to the Congressional Budget Office's summary for fiscal year 2025, net interest on the public debt has exceeded $1 trillion for the first time as the debt continues to grow.Even if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates despite the economy's strength and persistent inflation risks, interest costs are unlikely to fall in the short term. The public debt is expected to continue to rise, especially after this year's “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which, according to the CBO, will add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. In the longer term, the outlook is not much better. The CBO's long-term budget outlook for 2025-2055 predicts that by 2055, U.S. debt could reach 156% of GDP, and it is expected to continue rising after that date. Such enormous debt could slow economic growth, increase payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, and pose serious risks to the country's fiscal and economic health.Given all this, the dollar index is expected to weaken, and Treasury yields are unlikely to drop anytime soon, even if the Fed maintains a loose monetary policy and the S&P 500 continues to rise. But it’s worth remembering that the U.S. isn’t alone in this. Besides Japan, where sovereign debt exceeds $10 trillion — approximately 2.4 times the country's GDP — with interest payments consuming nearly 25% of the national budget, China is facing its own debt challenges. IMF data shows that over the past 15 years, China’s gross debt as a percentage of GDP has jumped from 33% to over 96%. With China planning to expand fiscal spending in 2026 to support growth in a challenging global environment, things are unlikely to improve soon.At first glance, it might seem that China’s debt situation isn’t as dire as the U.S., but that figure doesn’t include hidden local government debt. Using the IMF’s broader definition, China’s general government debt jumps to an estimated 124% of GDP once off-budget local obligations are counted. Meanwhile, total non-financial debt exceeds 300% of GDP.If China's debt burden continues to rise, it could lead to higher government financing costs, local defaults, and increased stock market volatility. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

If not for the AI boom and massive government deficits, I suspect the broader US economy would look more like the housing industry.The massive hangover from ultra-low rates during covid continued this year, despite early hope for optimism. The home builders' ETF ($XHB) tells the story. It was rocked early in the year along with the Liberation Day trade, then attempted a reversal from April only to stumble again in the fourth quarter, finishing the year fractionally lower.The chart itself flatters the performance of overall home builders, as high-end builders did better due to divergence in the US economy. The latest index of home builder sentiment from the NHB was at 39, which is near rock bottom levels.At various points in the year hopes for lower rates helped home-builder sentiment but we're now in some kind of trough of disillusionment. There are a couple of rate cuts fully priced in for next year but there is fear that any cuts won't work their way to the long end of the curve, and may even steepen it. US home buyers generally use 30-year fixed mortgages so the Fed has little power to control that with overnight rates, and even in Trump's most-dovish dreams, the potential for further QE to drive down long-term yields is remote. That means there are few levers to pull to offer a strong boost to housing.Yesterday, there was some stronger economic data on the housing front. Pending home sales rose 3.3% compared to 1.0% expected. There is pent-up demand building and at some point that could be released. Ironically, it could come when consumers start to sense higher rates coming.Today we get another housing indicator on the economic calendar with the CaseShiller house price index and the price numbers from the FHA (the US regulator). Those are expected up 1.2% y/y and 1.7% y/y, respectively.Other data on the US economic calendar today includes the Dallas Fed services sector survey, which always has some interesting commentary, and the FOMC minutes from the Dec 9-10 meeting. The later could be a market mover if it highlights a timeline for further rate cuts (or not). It was one of the more-contentious decisions of the past decade.Aside from the data, look for the ebb and flow to dominate markets today as it's the last full trading day of the year. S&P 500 futures are currently flat. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It is reported that China is to mandate chipmakers to use at least 50% of domestically made equipment for adding new capacity, as Beijing looks to keep up the push in building a self-sufficient semiconductor supply chain.The sources noted however that the rule is not one that will be publicly documented. But should chipmakers seek state approval to build or expand their plants, they are said to have been told to show proof in their procurement tenders that at least half their equipment are Chinese-made.The push here is quite a significant one by Beijing, who seem to be happy to double down and hunker down by stripping itself of any reliance on foreign technology. That especially after the US has continued to tighten technology export restrictions since 2023, having banned sales of advanced AI chips and semiconductor equipment to China.But with this new mandate, it even sees China look to alienate supply of foreign equipment from the likes of Japan, South Korea, and Europe in favour of domestic suppliers.That being said, the sources said that local authorities will grant flexibility depending on supply constraints. In particular, areas where domestically developed equipment is not yet fully available. However, applications which typically fail to meet the 50% threshold should be rejected.One of the sources mentioned that:"Authorities prefer if it is much higher than 50%. Eventually they are aiming for the plants to use 100% domestic equipment."As Beijing continues down this path, the big winner seems to be China's largest chip equipment group, Naura Technology. That's one big name to keep an eye out for next year alongside its smaller rival, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC).Chinese firms will be looking to turn to these two names, especially in the area of chip etching during microfabrication - which is a crucial step in the manufacturing process. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Well, a brand new year will mark the changing of the guard so to speak in terms of voting members at the Fed. And we will get to that in a couple of days' time, so it is important to understand the dynamics of the situation especially since we're entering a rather delicate timeline for the central bank.The Fed managed to sneak in one final rate cut for the year earlier this month. However, markets are taking on the view that the next move will need a lot more convincing. As things stand, the next full 25 bps rate cut is only priced in for June 2026 with there being ~60 bps of rate cuts priced in for the year ahead.As we move closer to neutral, the push to cut rates will lessen but that is something that Trump doesn't really want. So, the political pressure will be there even as inflation pressures might not ease as much in the first half of the year. But once Powell is gone and we get into the second half of 2026, it might be a different story on the inflation narrative.And if the labour market continues to soften, that will at least give the Fed some added flexibility to stick to the plot of cutting rates. Otherwise, stagflation risks are going to be a consideration instead. So, policymakers will be hoping that the backdrop doesn't develop as such.In any case, the main cast of voting members will remain unchanged next year but the most important thing to note is that Fed chair Powell's term will be ending on May 2026.Jerome Powell (Fed chair)Philip Jefferson (Fed vice chair)Michelle Bowman (Fed vice chair for supervision)Michael Barr (Fed governor)Christopher Waller (Fed governor)Lisa Cook (Fed governor)Stephen Miran (Fed governor)John Williams (NY Fed president)With Powell out of the equation, we'll likely get a Trump puppet in place though the race is now between the two Kevins. Hassett is one that is more aligned with Trump's views whereas Warsh is slightly more favoured by Wall Street to take over. But in any case, expect this to reflect a more dovish shift in terms of voting stance as compared to Powell - who is often a more neutral player.Then, there's also the curious case of Miran who is expected to leave when his term expires at the end of January. So, he will at least be voting once again for the 28 January policy decision. He is a Trump puppet and has been pushing for a 50 bps rate cut since joining the fray, so don't expect that to change next month.His replacement will likely be a permanent appointee by Trump, so don't expect any less dovishness on this one to say the least. But until one is appointed, Miran will stay on in that position. So, it's an indifferent motion really.Everyone else on the list above tends to lean more neutral to dovish as of late, so that sort of stance is expected to continue as we get into the new year.As for the rotating members, we are seeing a change up with the fresh names coming in being:Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed)Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed)Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed)Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed)And the ones rotating out will be:Susan Collins (Boston Fed)Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed)Alberto Musalem (St Louis Fed)Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed)I commented previously on the change as such:"Hammack and Logan should be like-for-like replacements to Goolsbee and Schmid on the central bank dove versus hawk scale. And if anything, they might even be more hawkish. So, it will be a tough task to want to change their minds in pushing for stronger conviction on rate cuts."So, that sort of keeps things as they are to what we saw in the December meeting. That at least to start the year.But with Powell set to depart and the possible "inflation mirage" forming in the second half of 2026, it might be a case that we will see the Fed slowly turn more dovish as a whole in due time; all else being equal. A push for an earlier rate cut, perhaps in April, remains on the table as well. So, it's not to say that we will have to wait out Powell before seeing that happen.Come what may, Trump might not get his wish of wanting rates to come down quicker. However, he will at least get a more dovish tilt out of the central bank unless we see a material shift in the economic trend for next year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +3.0%HICP +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y expectedPrior +3.2%Spanish headline inflation comes in slightly below the readings in November but more or less within estimates at least. The most important metric though is core annual inflation and that is still seen at 2.6%, similar to the previous month. As such, that continues to reflect stickier price pressures in the Spanish economy in general. But at least overall economic activity is among the better performers in the euro area, unlike *coughs* Germany *coughs*. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Oil traders note - Saudi airstrikes in Yemen expose escalating tensions with UAEChina defies easing calls as PBOC keeps rates steady and shifts focus to fiscal supportSilver steadies after sharpest sell-off in 5 years as metals head for best year since 1979PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0348 (vs. estimate at 7.0112)South Korea to unveil MSCI Developed Market inclusion roadmap early next yearTrump warns Iran of renewed strikes, keeps Middle East oil risk premium simmeringUS oil inventories surprise higher as geopolitics keeps crude supportedNvidia completes $5bn Intel investment as strategic partnership takes shapeApple China iPhone demand rebound bolsters US$300–$315 price target outlookFinancial markets across the region traded in subdued fashion as the countdown to 2026 continued and most professional participants remained in holiday mode. Major FX pairs were confined to narrow ranges, regional equities were quietly mixed, and Japanese government bond yields eased slightly. The data calendar was largely empty, keeping conviction low. In commodities, oil prices were steady to marginally higher, while silver clawed back some ground following its sharp recent correction.Geopolitics provided the main source of direction, though markets largely looked through the headlines. In Asia, China conducted a further 10 hours of live-fire drills around Taiwan on Tuesday, extending what Beijing has described as its largest-ever exercises around the island. The drills, spanning multiple zones in surrounding sea and airspace, were framed by China’s Eastern Theatre Command as a show of resolve against separatism. The manoeuvres follow a recent US announcement of a large arms package for Taiwan. Despite the scale of the exercises, broader market reaction remained muted.Elsewhere, Middle East risk continued to underpin energy markets. US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could support fresh strikes should Iran be found rebuilding weapons programs, while also urging Hamas to disarm. The comments revived regional risk considerations and reinforced a geopolitical premium in oil, even in the absence of immediate supply disruptions.Oil prices were also supported earlier by conflict-related headlines from Ukraine and Yemen. Saudi Arabia carried out airstrikes in southern Yemen targeting STC-linked positions and, for the first time, accused weapons supplies of arriving via UAE channels — a notable escalation that highlights a widening rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The episode adds a new layer of uncertainty to Middle East stability.Meanwhile, US inventory data showed crude stocks rising by 405,000 barrels last week against expectations for a draw, with gasoline inventories jumping nearly 3 million barrels. Ordinarily bearish, the figures were largely shrugged off as geopolitical concerns continued to dominate price action.Overall, thin liquidity and year-end positioning kept markets range-bound, with geopolitics shaping risk sentiment more than fundamentals for now. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.25%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.45% Shanghai Composite -0.1%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Saudi Arabia carried out airstrikes in southern Yemen, indirectly confronting the UAE.Riyadh accused UAE-linked channels of supplying weapons to southern separatists.The episode exposes a widening Saudi–UAE rift with potential oil-market implications.Quiet but long-simmering tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) moved into the open after Saudi airstrikes in southern Yemen, marking the first time Riyadh has directly opposed its former ally in the Yemen conflict.Saudi Arabia said it carried out strikes targeting weapons depots linked to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a UAE-backed southern separatist faction seeking to restore an independent South Yemen along pre-1990 borders. According to Saudi officials, the weapons were delivered via two ships from Fujairah port in UAE, a claim that sharply escalates the political significance of the operation.The strikes reportedly hit the port of Mukalla in Yemen’s eastern Hadramout province, an area that has become increasingly sensitive as rival regional powers jockey for influence along key Red Sea and Gulf of Aden trade routes. While Riyadh has long viewed the STC’s separatist ambitions as a strategic red line, the latest action suggests Saudi Arabia is now willing to confront the UAE’s role more directly, albeit through proxy dynamics on Yemeni soil.Saudi–UAE friction has been building for years beneath the surface. Once aligned in Yemen against the Houthi movement, the two powers have diverged sharply over end-game objectives. The UAE has cultivated strong ties with southern militias and port infrastructure, while Saudi Arabia prioritises territorial integrity along its southern border and fears that Yemeni fragmentation could destabilise the region.The implications extend well beyond Yemen. Any visible rupture between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi introduces a new layer of uncertainty for energy markets. Both countries sit at the heart of global oil supply chains, and rising intra-Gulf tensions risk inflating geopolitical risk premiums, particularly if disputes spill into maritime chokepoints or shipping logistics.For now, the confrontation remains indirect. But the strikes underscore how Yemen is once again emerging as a flashpoint, not just for regional proxy wars, but for fractures among Gulf allies themselves. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:China delivered minimal rate cuts despite expectations for aggressive easing.The PBOC has prioritised financial stability and targeted liquidity tools.Fiscal stimulus is expected to carry the bulk of policy support into 2026.China’s central bank has taken a notably restrained approach to monetary easing, defying widespread expectations for aggressive rate cuts as the economy grapples with weak domestic demand, deflationary pressure and structural imbalances. Over the past year, the People’s Bank of China trimmed its policy rate only once, by 10 basis points, the smallest annual reduction since 2021, despite forecasts from major Wall Street banks calling for easing of up to 40 basis points. Info comes via a Bloomberg report, gated. The caution has surprised markets, particularly after Beijing signalled a shift to a “moderately loose” monetary stance for the first time in 14 years as it prepared for escalating trade tensions with the US. What economists underestimated was the resilience of China’s export sector, concerns over banking-system stability, and the impact of a strong equity-market rally, all of which reduced the urgency for sweeping rate cuts. Compared with global peers, China’s stance stands out. While advanced-economy central banks have cut policy rates by an average of 1.6 percentage points over the past two years, the PBOC has delivered only a fraction of that. Adjusted for inflation, Chinese interest rates have moved back into positive territory, underscoring Beijing’s reluctance to follow the ultra-loose playbook adopted by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan during downturns. Instead, policymakers have leaned on targeted and less conventional tools. Liquidity injections through short- and medium-term operations, selective relending programs, support for equity markets and renewed government bond purchases have kept funding conditions loose without slashing benchmark rates. These measures have pushed interbank borrowing costs, such as the seven-day repo rate, to their lowest levels since early 2023. Officials see limited scope for further cuts, with the key policy rate, the 7-day reverse repo, at 1.4% and concerns that deeper reductions could compress bank margins, weaken credit growth and fuel “Japanification” fears. As a result, fiscal policy is set to play the dominant role in 2026, with monetary policy focused on maintaining liquidity and keeping government borrowing costs low rather than driving a demand-led rebound. --- The 7-day reverse repo rate, now considered a key policy signal, was cut from 1.5% to 1.4% on May 9, 2025.The 1-year LPR was trimmed to 3.0% from 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR was lowered to 3.5% from 3.6% in May also.. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Silver steadied after a 9% one-day drop, the largest in over five years.Both gold and silver are on track for their best annual gains since 1979.Central-bank buying, ETF inflows and Fed rate cuts continue to underpin prices.Silver prices stabilised above $73 an ounce after suffering their steepest one-day decline in more than five years, as investors digested an aggressive bout of profit-taking following a powerful year-end rally. The 9% drop on Monday marked silver’s sharpest daily fall since 2019, briefly rattling sentiment across the precious metals complex.Gold prices were comparatively subdued, holding broadly flat after recording their largest two-month decline in years. While near-term momentum has softened, both metals remain on track to post their strongest annual gains since 1979, underlining the scale of the move seen across 2025.Structural support for precious metals remains firmly in place. Central-bank buying has continued at elevated levels, reinforcing gold’s role as a reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising fiscal risks. At the same time, sustained inflows into exchange-traded funds have broadened investor participation, while three interest-rate cuts delivered this year by the Federal Reserve have eased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.Silver’s rally, however, has been amplified by additional forces. Speculative demand in China surged in recent weeks, pushing premiums on the Shanghai Futures Exchange to record highs. These elevated premiums signalled acute local demand and contributed to tightness in global supply chains, echoing earlier inventory squeezes seen this year in both London and New York vaults.Those dislocations helped propel silver sharply higher into year-end, leaving the market vulnerable to a violent correction once momentum stalled. The latest pullback appears to reflect position unwinds rather than a fundamental shift in the outlook.Looking ahead, analysts expect volatility to remain elevated, particularly in silver, which tends to exaggerate moves in gold during periods of speculative excess. Still, with monetary easing underway, strong official-sector demand and lingering supply constraints, the broader backdrop for precious metals remains supportive as markets move into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Monday's close was 7.0056.People's Bank of China injects 312.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operations, rate remains 1.4%.---The People’s Bank of China daily USD/CNY reference rate is a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets.China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours.Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations.Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks.As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:South Korea will publish a roadmap early next year for MSCI index upgrade.The move targets long-standing accessibility gaps that currently keep Korea as an emerging market.Inclusion could attract substantial foreign capital and narrow the “Korea discount.”South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance has confirmed it will announce a detailed roadmap early next year aimed at securing inclusion in the MSCI Developed Market Index, a long-standing goal that could reshape international investor flows into the country’s capital markets. Despite its status as Asia’s fourth-largest economy, South Korea has remained classified as an emerging market by MSCI for over a decade, even being dropped off the Developed Markets watchlist in 2014 due to accessibility constraints and regulatory barriers. While other benchmark providers such as FTSE Russell categorise Korea as developed, MSCI’s classification has a unique impact on passive investment flows, with analysts estimating that an upgrade could attract billions of dollars in foreign capital as index-linked funds adjust their allocations. The government’s planned roadmap is expected to focus on market accessibility enhancements, targeting structural issues that MSCI has repeatedly flagged, such as restrictions in the foreign exchange market and investor access. Recent reforms, including expanded foreign participation and potential FX market opening measures, underscore Seoul’s broader strategy to make its markets more investable.South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung has publicly framed this push as part of ending the so-called “Korea discount,” a term used to describe the valuation gap between Korean equities and peers in developed markets. In speeches abroad, Lee linked MSCI inclusion to boosting investor confidence and deepening global capital integration. An upgrade to the MSCI Developed Market Index does not happen overnight. It typically involves an interim watchlist phase, giving global investors time to adjust before full inclusion, often followed by an extended evaluation of reforms in practice. For South Korea, success would not only reflect its economic maturity and market infrastructure but could also unlock significant passive inflows, improve liquidity, and strengthen its standing in the global investment landscape. ---Re global index provider Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Trump warned Iran against rebuilding weapons programs, reviving strike risk.Renewed Iran tensions raise the prospect of higher oil risk premiums.Hamas disarmament pressure adds to regional instability concerns.Trump renews Iran strike warning as Gaza disarmament pressure raises oil risk premiumUS President Donald Trump warned that Washington could back another major military strike on Iran if Tehran is found rebuilding its ballistic missile or nuclear weapons programs, while also issuing a stark ultimatum to Hamas to disarm or face severe consequences.Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after talks at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said recent intelligence and media reports suggested Iran may be attempting to reconstitute weapons capabilities at alternative locations following a major US strike in June. He indicated Washington was closely tracking Iranian activity, adding that any renewed escalation would not be tolerated.The comments refocus market attention on Iran’s role in regional energy stability. Iran remains a critical oil producer and a central geopolitical node near key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz. Any renewed military action, or even heightened threats, risks tightening supply expectations, lifting risk premiums across crude markets and increasing volatility in energy-linked assets.Iran, which fought a brief but intense conflict with Israel in June, said last week it had conducted fresh missile exercises, reinforcing concerns in Washington and Tel Aviv that tensions could flare again. While Trump reiterated openness to a negotiated nuclear arrangement, his remarks underscored that diplomacy would be contingent on clear restraint from Tehran.Trump also turned his attention to Gaza, urging progress toward a second phase of the ceasefire agreement brokered last year. That phase would involve international peacekeeping forces and a transition away from active combat. However, Hamas has refused to disarm, and Trump accused the group of undermining the agreement while warning that Israel could resume military operations if disarmament does not occur.For oil markets, the dual focus on Iran and Gaza keeps geopolitical risk firmly embedded in prices. Even in the absence of immediate supply disruptions, the prospect of renewed conflict involving Iran, directly or via regional spillovers, is likely to support crude prices by reinforcing a persistent Middle East risk premium into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:EIA data showed unexpected builds across crude, gasoline and distillates.Inventory figures clashed with prior expectations for tightening balances.Oil prices remained supported by geopolitical risk and supply concerns.---US oil inventories surprise to the upside as geopolitical risk lifts crude pricesThe US Energy Information Administration’s long-delayed weekly inventory report delivered a notable upside surprise, complicating an oil market already being driven by heightened geopolitical risk and supply-disruption concerns.The US Energy Information Administration published its data for the week ended December 19 after a delay from the original Monday release window. The figures ran counter to expectations from an extended Reuters poll, which had anticipated a sizeable crude draw alongside modest builds in refined products.Instead, US crude inventories rose by 405,000 barrels to 424.82 million, versus forecasts for a 2.4 million-barrel draw,Gasoline stocks climbed sharply, up 2.9 million barrels to 228.49 million, well above expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel increase,Distillate inventories also rose, increasing 202,000 barrels to 118.7 million, roughly in line with consensus expectations.The data suggest softer near-term refinery demand and relatively comfortable supply conditions, particularly in gasoline, at a time when markets had been leaning toward tighter balances. Under normal circumstances, such numbers would have weighed on prices. However, broader macro and geopolitical dynamics continued to dominate sentiment.Earlier, oil prices had already settled sharply higher, driven by renewed geopolitical tension. Brent crude futures rose $1.30, or 2.1%, to settle at $61.94 a barrel, while US WTI gained $1.34, or 2.4%, to close at $58.08.Markets reacted to claims from Moscow that Ukrainian drones had targeted a Russian presidential residence, prompting Russia to review its stance on peace talks. Ukraine dismissed the accusations, but the headlines revived concerns about prolonged conflict risk. At the same time, tensions in Yemen intensified after Saudi air strikes followed clashes involving southern separatist forces, keeping Middle East supply risks firmly in focus.Analysts noted:geopolitical instability, alongside strong Chinese seaborne crude imports, is helping offset otherwise bearish inventory signalsprices likely to recover modestly into 2026 as non-OPEC+ supply growth slows This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Nvidia has completed a $5bn private placement in Intel, formalising a ~4% equity stake.The deal follows US government and SoftBank funding aimed at supporting Intel’s turnaround.Intel’s recent share rally leaves Nvidia sitting on a sizeable unrealised gain.--Nvidia’s $5bn Intel stake becomes official as partnership shifts from promise to executionNvidia has formally completed its long-flagged $5 billion strategic investment in Intel, turning a headline-grabbing September announcement into settled cash, issued shares, and a now-official equity stake.According to a securities filing highlighted by The Information (gated), Nvidia purchased roughly 214.8 million Intel shares at $23.28 apiece via a private placement, equating to an ownership stake of about 4%. The transaction closed on December 26 following regulatory clearance earlier this month, including early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period by the Federal Trade Commission.The investment was originally unveiled in mid-September as part of a broader partnership between the two long-time rivals, aimed at jointly developing custom products spanning data-centre infrastructure and PCs. For Intel, the deal lands alongside substantial external backing, following $8.9 billion in US government funding and a separate $2 billion investment from SoftBank, all part of a wider effort to stabilise and revitalise the chipmaker’s manufacturing and product roadmap.Market timing has worked decisively in Nvidia’s favour. Intel shares have rallied roughly 50% in recent weeks, leaving Nvidia’s $23.28 entry price well below prevailing market levels and implying an unrealised gain of close to $3 billion on paper. The discount also underscores the leverage enjoyed by Nvidia at a moment when it remains the central force in AI-driven computing.Intel has stressed that the private placement does not grant Nvidia any special governance or information rights beyond those of a standard shareholder. Still, symbolically, the investment represents a rare vote of confidence from the industry’s dominant AI player at a sensitive juncture for Intel’s turnaround story.Speaking at the original announcement, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described the collaboration as a “historic partnership,” noting that joint architecture teams across CPUs, servers and PCs had been working together for more than a year. With the cash now on Intel’s balance sheet, investor focus is shifting from legal completion to execution — and whether the alliance can translate into tangible hardware and competitive momentum. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:China shipment data point to a sharp rebound in non-Chinese branded phones, boosting Apple’s implied market share.Premium demand appears resilient despite weak overall growth in China’s handset market.Regulatory risks persist, but brokers see iPhone momentum cushioning near-term pressure.A renewed surge in iPhone demand across China is reinforcing the bullish case for Apple Inc., with fresh data pointing to a sharp recovery in the company’s market share despite a broadly sluggish domestic handset market.Wells Fargo reiterated its Overweight rating on Apple and maintained a $300 price target, arguing that recent shipment trends signal improving momentum for the iPhone franchise in mainland China. Apple shares were recently trading around $273 (see attached chart screenshot), valuing the company at roughly $4.0 trillion.According to figures from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, shipments of non-Chinese branded smartphones, widely viewed as a proxy for iPhone demand, surged 128% year on year to 6.93 million units in November. Over the same period, Apple’s implied market share jumped to 22.4% from 10.6% a year earlier, even though overall smartphone shipments in China rose by just 2%.In contrast, shipments of Chinese-branded handsets declined 13%, highlighting a clear divergence between premium and mass-market demand. The data suggest Apple is continuing to capture share at the high end, even as price-sensitive consumers pull back amid slower economic growth.Wells Fargo said the figures point to strengthening iPhone momentum heading into 2026, helping offset concerns around regulatory pressure and longer-term competitive risks in the region.Other brokers echoed a cautiously constructive stance. Jefferies lifted its price target to $283.36 while retaining a Hold rating, citing improved hardware trends balanced against legal and policy headwinds. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight view and raised its target to $315, arguing that sustained iPhone strength provides Apple with financial resilience as it navigates regulatory and operational challenges into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Palladium futures had one of those sessions where the price action alone looks chaotic, but the order flow underneath tells a clearer story. Today’s move was not just a normal pullback. It behaved like a forced unwind that eventually transitioned into stabilization and early recovery, with a credible case that the session low near $1677 may hold as the day’s low.What happened today in Palladium, in plain EnglishPalladium gapped up at the weekly open. It wasn't the only precious metal to have its special bearish day. Risk on, you say? Nahh... Bitcoin also trapped some bulls and then sold off at 91k resistance, as our analysis mentioned. Then, a crazy move happened for Palladium. You know how most people consider a "correction" to be apx 20% down? Well, this special metal sold off over 21% in less than 17 hours. Crazy! Palladium sold aggressively into the $1700 psychological round number, and then pushed even lower to the $1677 area. That is the type of behavior you typically see when stops get triggered in clusters and liquidity becomes thin. After that flush, price began to recover, and importantly, the recovery was not only visible on the candles - it was confirmed by the internal pressure dynamics that most traders do not track.This is where orderFlow Intel adds real value.What orderFlow Intel saw that standard charts do not1) The “liquidation cascade” signatureAt the peak of the selloff, orderFlow Intel flagged a classic liquidation phase:A sharp volume expansion versus earlier barsA one-sided selling imbalanceA fast break through obvious reference points (like $1700) with little hesitationThat combination usually means sellers are not choosing to sell calmly - they are being forced to exit, or they are chasing downside liquidity. In those moments, the market often overshoots because bids get pulled and stops become market sells.This matters because liquidation phases often end with a “capitulation style” bar or sequence. The trap for retail traders is that the final push down looks like maximum bearish conviction, when in reality it can be seller exhaustion.2) Why $1700 mattered and why price went below it anywayRound numbers like $1700 attract liquidity. In commodities, they are natural areas for:stop-loss clusteringalgorithmic triggershedging flowsAfter exaggerated downside moves, it is common to see a stop hunt through the round number, followed by “dancing” around it as liquidity is harvested on both sides. That is exactly what today resembled: first the flush below, then the market shifting into a two-sided auction where the next move depends on whether sellers can regain control.3) The hidden shift: absorption turning into initiative buyingThis is the part most chart-only traders miss.After the flush, we saw multiple bars where price action was still weak or choppy, but the internal flow improved. In simple terms:Sellers kept trying to press, but price stopped falling at the same rate.Buyers began absorbing sell pressure without immediately lifting price.Then buyers finally became aggressive enough to lift offers and push price higher.This progression is important. A durable low is rarely a single candle event. It is usually a process: pressure fades, absorption appears, then initiative buying confirms. That is consistent with why $1677 is a reasonable candidate for the day’s low.Why $1677 stands out as the daily low candidateFrom an order-flow perspective, the $1677 area behaved like a “repair point” where the market stopped searching for lower prices and started rebuilding.What supports that idea:The selloff into that zone showed exhaustion characteristics after an already extended downside run.After that low was printed, the market began to trade more two-sided rather than continuing straight down.The subsequent recovery showed improving buy-side participation, meaning the rebound was not purely random.This does not guarantee the low will hold tomorrow. But for today’s session narrative, $1677 fits the profile of a liquidation low rather than just another waypoint lower.Key levels for Palladium futures that traders are likely to care about nextHere is the practical map to watch:Support zone: $1677 to the high $1600s If price loses this area decisively, the “daily low” thesis weakens and the market may continue searching lower.Round number pivot: $1700 Bulls typically want to hold above it. Bears want to push back below it to restart liquidation pressure.Recovery resistance: $1710 to the low $1700s This is where early recoveries often stall. If price holds above, it supports a continued repair rally.Next major magnet: mid $1700s (the heavy trade zone from the selloff) This is where selling may reappear because it is a prior high-volume area. Acceptance above it would be a stronger confirmation that the market is transitioning from “bounce” to “reversal.”What orderFlow Intel adds to Palladium technical analysis, beyond a standard recapMost recaps will say: “Palladium fell hard and bounced.” That is not enough for decision support.orderFlow Intel adds the missing layer:whether the move down was controlled selling or forced liquidationwhether buyers were absorbing quietly or absent entirelywhether the rebound is just short covering or early initiative buyingwhether the market is still trending or has shifted into a base-building auctionThat is why it helps traders avoid the two common mistakes:buying too early during liquidation because “it looks cheap”staying bearish too late after the market has already shifted internallyWhat's next for Palladium? Have we got a dip?Today’s drop into $1677 had the fingerprints of a liquidation-driven low followed by early recovery behavior. The market may still chop, and another test of the lows is always possible after a violent stop hunt. But based on the order flow evidence, $1677 is a credible candidate for the day’s low, and the next sessions will be defined by whether Palladium can hold above $1700 and build acceptance into the mid $1700s. Stay tuned for more at our Telegram channel https://t.me/investingLiveStocks and always trade and invest in precious metals at your own risk only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview: Technology and Finance in FocusThe stock market today paints a somewhat mixed picture as observed through the heatmap, with a notable decline in semiconductor stocks. The semiconductor sector is glowing red with significant declines. Nvidia (NVDA) is leading the downturn, falling by 1.96%, while AMD and AVGO are also suffering losses at 2.35% and 1.46%, respectively. This trend hints at increasing caution or profit-taking among investors within the semiconductor space.On the flip side, the financial sector presents a more optimistic view. Visa (V) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) are both up by 0.28%, showing resilience. However, leading banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) are slightly negative, mirroring some hesitance or realignment in banking stocks.Market Mood and TrendsOverall, the market's mood appears cautious, as reflected in the uneven performance across different sectors. The fall of technology giants in the semiconductor sector may signal broader tech concerns. However, slightly positive movements in financials and consumer defensives like Apple (AAPL) and Procter & Gamble (PG) suggest a shift towards safer, more stable investments.Despite some turbulent areas, certain sectors like energy remain buoyant. ExxonMobil (XOM) is holding a positive territory with a 0.79% increase, reflecting ongoing confidence in oil and gas companies.Strategic RecommendationsGiven today's market snapshot, investors should monitor developments within the semiconductor and broader technology sectors closely. The current downward pressure might offer buying opportunities following further corrections. Moreover, maintaining or incrementing allocations in sectors like energy could benefit portfolios amidst market uncertainties.Meanwhile, those invested in financial stocks may want to hold or adjust their positions based on credit service gains to hedge against potential downturns. As volatility persists, seeking safety in stalwart sectors like defensive consumer goods and energy might provide steadier growth or income.For detailed updates and more insightful market analyses, traders and investors should keep visiting InvestingLive.com to stay ahead of market trends and dynamics. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Silver certainly got its moment in the spotlight last week as a parabolic move went stratospheric. The put silver on front pages around the world and prompted some hand-wringing from the world's richest man. There are rumors about squeezes and margin calls prompting the last leg of the move on Friday and now that air is coming out of the market. Silver is down $6.61/oz to $72.36. It's the largest one-day nominal fall ever, but amazingly, it still doesn't erase Friday's surge.Technically, the 38.2% retracement of the rally since November 21 is at $70.46 and that should lend some support. The 50% level clocks in at $66.31.Precious metals are a sentiment-driven market right now but the silver market is much smaller than gold. That gives retail an outsized influence compared to gold, which is largely driven by central bank buying and selling.Gold has also been hit by profit taking today but it's down 3% after also hitting record highs late last week. We're also in a tricky time of year for trading. Liquidity is low everywhere and that can lead to outsized swings as hedge funds are reluctant to lean against excesses and market makers limit participation. For the year ahead, the market appears to be tightly grasping onto the idea that Trump will nominate a dovish Fed member and continue to intervene in the economy in ways that makes the US dollar a less-attractive store of value. The gold rally really kicked off in late-August when he fired the head of the BLS -- the agency that publishes non-farm payrolls.He is also back to talking about the US taking over Greenland and the administration has pledged tariffs even if the Supreme Court blocks the current tariff regime. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.