Summary:France warns 2026 budget may be delayed past March electionsConfidence votes next week threaten government survivalPossible National Assembly dissolution if government fallsBudget talks already late amid deficit concernsPolitical uncertainty weighs on fiscal credibilityFrance budget risks delay as confidence votes threaten government stabilityFrance’s fragile fiscal outlook is back in focus after Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin warned that adoption of the country’s 2026 finance bill could be pushed back until after municipal elections in March if lawmakers topple the government in confidence votes expected next week.Speaking in a televised interview on Sunday, de Montchalin said the collapse of the government would make it “impossible” to pass a budget before the local elections, underscoring the political risks hanging over France’s already-delayed fiscal process. Her comments follow remarks from another cabinet minister suggesting President Emmanuel Macron would dissolve the National Assembly and call snap legislative elections if the government loses a no-confidence vote.France has been operating under heightened political uncertainty since Macron lost his parliamentary majority, forcing the government to rely on fragile alliances and procedural tools to advance legislation. Budget negotiations for 2026 are already running late, against a backdrop of persistent deficits, rising debt servicing costs and growing scrutiny from ratings agencies and EU fiscal authorities.Tensions escalated on Friday after the far-right National Rally and the left-wing France Unbowed jointly called for parliamentary confidence votes tied to opposition to the EU’s Mercosur trade agreement with Latin America. While the trade deal itself is unlikely to be decisive, it has become a political flashpoint for parties seeking to weaken the government.If the government falls, attention would quickly shift to the risk of snap elections, further delaying fiscal decision-making and complicating France’s commitments to rein in deficits under revised EU budget rules. Municipal elections in March already limit lawmakers’ appetite for tough fiscal choices, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged budget vacuum.For markets, the renewed political instability raises concerns about France’s fiscal credibility, with implications for OAT spreads, euro sentiment and broader confidence in Europe’s ability to deliver disciplined budget policy amid slowing growth.Snap election? Given the fractured politics in France it may not resolve anything. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Adam had the news on Friday:Japan's Takaichi weighs calling a snap election for mid-FebruaryMore on this, summary:LDP lawmakers expect possible Lower House dissolution in late JanuarySnap election could be held as early as FebruaryTakaichi citing inflation relief and economic impact as prioritiesRuling bloc holds slim Lower House majority, Upper House minorityElection logistics already being quietly preparedSpeculation is building within Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae could dissolve the Lower House at the start of the ordinary Diet session later this month, potentially triggering a snap general election as early as February.A growing number of LDP lawmakers believe the prime minister is inclined to seek a fresh mandate while cabinet approval ratings remain relatively strong. The ordinary Diet session is scheduled to begin on January 23, a timing that would allow an early or mid-February election if the chamber is dissolved promptly.Asked about the possibility of dissolution, Takaichi said the government’s priority is ensuring households feel the benefits of economic policy and measures aimed at curbing rising prices. She added that the administration is continuing to work on inflation relief and broader economic support, comments widely seen as leaving the election option open.The Takaichi administration currently holds only a slim majority in the Lower House after three independents joined the LDP bloc, while remaining in the minority in the Upper House. That fragile parliamentary arithmetic has added to expectations that the prime minister may move early rather than risk erosion of political momentum.LDP policy chief Kobayashi Takayuki said the authority to dissolve the Lower House rests solely with the prime minister, warning lawmakers they should always be prepared “as if on a battlefield.” Similar language has been echoed across both ruling and opposition parties.Opposition leaders have also begun positioning for an election. Constitutional Democratic Party head Noda Yoshihiko said Takaichi would face scrutiny over whether she is prioritising a political mandate over tackling inflation and economic challenges. Democratic Party for the People leader Tamaki Yuichiro said candidate preparations would be accelerated.Coalition partner Komeito, however, has urged focus on inflation countermeasures rather than political manoeuvring.The Internal Affairs Ministry has already instructed prefectural election boards to prepare for a possible vote. Any final decision may hinge on public opinion, upcoming diplomatic engagements with South Korea and Italy, and the impact a snap election could have on deliberations over the fiscal 2026 budget. ***Takaichi’s objective in calling a near-term election would be to secure a stronger governing mandate. For traders and investors, the more immediate implication is the prospect of even greater fiscal support under her administration. The market read is negative for both JGBs and the yen, given Japan’s already extreme public-debt burden and rising debt-servicing costs as the Bank of Japan gradually edges rates higher. Japanese stocks, however, would welcome more fiscal support for the economy and the weaker yen. The yen weakened last week ahead of Friday’s headlines and has extended those losses since, timing that some in the market may view with raised eyebrows (cough ... insider trading ... cough). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PPI data listed on the calendar from Japan is not due today, its due on Wednesday 14 January 2026.Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today. The data from Australia is not likely to move Oz markets around much at all upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online ... prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.EUR/USD 1.1635USD/JPY 158.09GBP/USD 1.3398USD/CHF 0.8011USD/CAD 1.3911AUD/USD 0.6681NZD/USD 0.5731Not too much movement from Later Friday levels. We've had some news over the weekend, nothing to concrete in terms of actual implementation though. I'll be back with further updates soon. Europe moves to boost NATO Arctic presence to counter Trump’s Greenland rhetoric/threatSummary:UK and Germany are leading talks on boosting European and NATO military presence in Greenland.Germany plans to propose a NATO Arctic mission, Arctic Sentry, modelled on Baltic Sentry.Move aims to undercut Trump’s argument that the US must control Greenland for security.European concern has intensified after recent US military action in Venezuela.Denmark seeks diplomacy to counter what it calls exaggerated US security claims.Trump orders special forces to draft Greenland invasion plan - UK Sunday Daily Mail reportSummary:Daily Mail reports Trump has ordered US special forces to prepare invasion plans for Greenland.Senior US military leaders are resisting the plan, calling it illegal and lacking congressional backing.Advisers led by Stephen Miller are said to be pushing the idea after the Venezuela operation.British diplomats see a possible political motive ahead of US mid-term elections.European officials warn extreme scenarios could fracture NATO.For markets:Escalatory Greenland rhetoric raises geopolitical tail risks in the Arctic region.Any strain on NATO cohesion would be negative for European security confidence.Heightened geopolitical uncertainty typically supports safe-haven assets.FX volatility could rise if US-Europe relations deteriorate.Energy and defence sectors may see increased risk-premium pricing.Trump floats one-year 10% credit-card rate cap, offers zero enforcement detail, just talkSummary:Trump calls for 10% credit-card APR cap for one year, effective Jan 20, 2026.No enforcement detail: unclear if voluntary or government-mandated.Part of a populist “affordability” burst this week (incl. MBS buying idea and ban on institutional home buyers).Big gap to current pricing: Fed data shows 22.30% (Nov 2025) on the key credit-card rate series.Without legislation / clear authority, this looks like headline politics first, policy mechanics later.Looking ahead:Newsquawk Week Ahead: US Earnings, US CPI, US Retail Sales, UK GDP, and China TradeMon: Japanese Holiday (Coming of Age Day); M2 & New Yuan Loans (Dec)Tue: EIA STEO; US NFIB (Dec), CPI (Dec)Wed: NBP Policy Announcement; US PPI (Nov; Oct-cancelled), US Retail Sales (Nov)Thu: UK GDP Estimate (Nov), EZ Trade (Nov), US Export/Import Prices (Dec; Nov-cancelled), NY Fed Mfg survey (Jan), Weekly Claims (w/e 3rd Jan), Chinese House Prices (Dec)Fri: US Industrial Production (Dec) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:UK and Germany are leading talks on boosting European and NATO military presence in Greenland.Germany plans to propose a NATO Arctic mission, Arctic Sentry, modelled on Baltic Sentry.Move aims to undercut Trump’s argument that the US must control Greenland for security.European concern has intensified after recent US military action in Venezuela.Denmark seeks diplomacy to counter what it calls exaggerated US security claims.European powers led by the UK and Germany are discussing plans to expand their military presence in Greenland and the wider Arctic, aiming to demonstrate that Europe and NATO already have regional security under control and to blunt renewed rhetoric from Donald Trump about US ownership of the island, Bloomberg (gated) reported.Germany is preparing to propose a joint NATO Arctic mission, informally dubbed Arctic Sentry, modelled on the alliance’s Baltic Sentry operation, according to people familiar with the discussions. The move would signal a stronger allied footprint in the High North amid rising concern over Russia and China’s Arctic ambitions.The push follows Trump’s repeated claims that the US must control Greenland to prevent Russian or Chinese encroachment, assertions rejected by Nordic governments. European leaders are increasingly alarmed by the president’s recent rhetoric and actions, including a US raid to capture Venezuela’s leader, which has sharpened fears about Washington’s willingness to use force to achieve foreign-policy goals.UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged allies to increase their security presence in the Arctic and has held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Starmer has also spoken directly with Trump, stressing the need to deter an increasingly aggressive Russia in the region.Germany’s foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, is set to raise Greenland and NATO’s role in Arctic stability during talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week. Denmark, meanwhile, hopes an imminent diplomatic visit to Washington can temper tensions and correct what it says are exaggerated security claims.While Trump has said he prefers to “make a deal” to acquire Greenland, he has not ruled out the use of force. Rubio has since told lawmakers that Washington’s aim remains a purchase rather than military intervention — an assurance closely watched by European capitals wary of strain on NATO unity. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Daily Mail reports Trump has ordered US special forces to prepare invasion plans for Greenland.Senior US military leaders are resisting the plan, calling it illegal and lacking congressional backing.Advisers led by Stephen Miller are said to be pushing the idea after the Venezuela operation.British diplomats see a possible political motive ahead of US mid-term elections.European officials warn extreme scenarios could fracture NATO.For markets:Escalatory Greenland rhetoric raises geopolitical tail risks in the Arctic region.Any strain on NATO cohesion would be negative for European security confidence.Heightened geopolitical uncertainty typically supports safe-haven assets.FX volatility could rise if US-Europe relations deteriorate.Energy and defence sectors may see increased risk-premium pricing. The UK's Sunday Daily Mail reported that US President Donald Trump has instructed his top special forces commanders to draw up contingency plans for the invasion of Greenland, a move that senior US military leaders are reportedly resisting. According to sources cited by The Mail on Sunday, advisers close to Trump, particularly political strategist Stephen Miller, have been emboldened by the recent operation to capture Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro, and want to act quickly to seize the Arctic island before Russia or China can make a move.British diplomatic sources believe Trump may also be driven by domestic political motives, hoping a dramatic foreign-policy action could distract American voters from weak economic performance ahead of this year’s mid-term elections. However, the plan has alarmed senior military figures, with the Joint Chiefs of Staff reportedly pushing back on the grounds that an invasion would be illegal and lack congressional support.One insider told the paper that generals are attempting to divert Trump’s focus toward “less controversial measures,” such as countering alleged Russian “ghost ships” or a potential strike on Iran, likening the effort to dealing with “a five-year-old.”Diplomats have reportedly war-gamed a range of scenarios, from “escalatory” use of force or coercion to sever Greenland’s ties with Denmark, to a “compromise scenario” in which Denmark grants the US expanded military access while formally barring Russia and China. A diplomatic cable cited by The Mail warned the most extreme scenario could “lead to the destruction of NATO from the inside.”According to the cable, hardline figures around Trump may see occupying Greenland as a way to force European NATO members into abandoning the alliance, since Congress would not allow the president to unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO. Under the compromise approach, Denmark would let the US expand legal military rights on the island — rights it already enjoys in practice — potentially aligning Greenland with Washington’s strategic goals.European officials reportedly believe the window for action is narrowing ahead of the mid-term elections, and have pointed to the upcoming NATO summit as a possible moment to cement a deal. A diplomatic source told the Daily Mail that British positioning will be key, noting that UK support for Europe could shape how allies respond to Trump’s proposals. Generals, meanwhile, are said to consider Trump’s Greenland plan “crazy and illegal” and are trying to distract him with other military priorities. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: Japanese Holiday (Coming of Age Day); M2 & New Yuan Loans (Dec)Tue: EIA STEO; US NFIB (Dec), CPI (Dec)Wed: NBP Policy Announcement; US PPI (Nov; Oct-cancelled), US Retail Sales (Nov)Thu: UK GDP Estimate (Nov), EZ Trade (Nov), US Export/Import Prices (Dec; Nov-cancelled), NY Fed Mfg survey (Jan), Weekly Claims (w/e 3rd Jan), Chinese House Prices (Dec)Fri: US Industrial Production (Dec)US Earnings Season:Writing at the end of Q4, FactSet said the earnings season is expected to show continued, albeit moderating, growth. S&P 500 earnings are forecast to rise 8.3% Y/Y, marking a tenth straight quarter of expansion, while revenues are seen up 7.6% Y/Y, among the strongest growth rates since 2022. Estimates have been revised higher through the quarter, an atypical pattern reflecting firmer demand and less negative corporate guidance. Technology is expected to lead earnings and revenue growth, driven by semiconductors and software, with Materials also among the stronger performers. Communication Services and Health Care are forecast to post solid revenue growth. By contrast, Consumer Discretionary is expected to deliver the weakest earnings performance, weighed down by sharp declines in automobiles and household durables, while Energy revenues are projected to fall due to lower oil prices. Financials will begin reporting next week, and earnings growth expectations for the sector have improved modestly. Large banks are likely to point to stable credit quality, resilient net interest income and continued strength in capital markets activity, with insurers and brokers also contributing positively to sector results, FactSet said. In the week, numbers are due from banks including JPM, BK, BAC, WFC, C, BLK, GS, MS.US CPI (Tue):Wells Fargo expects US CPI to rebound on a monthly basis in December after November’s unusually soft reading, with headline CPI seen rising 0.35% M/M and core CPI 0.36% M/M. It expects the annual rates to hold at 2.7% Y/Y for headline inflation and 2.8% Y/Y for core, remaining below September levels and signalling a continued disinflationary trend. Wells said the December pickup largely reflects the unwinding of distortions from data-collection disruptions during the government shutdown, which amplified seasonal discounting in November. Goods prices are expected to rebound more sharply than services on holiday discount payback, while tariff pass-through appears to be moderating. Services inflation should also firm, notably in travel-related categories, while shelter inflation is seen following its pre-shutdown trend. Statistical quirks persist, particularly in housing, where CPI sampling rotations mean shutdown-related softness in shelter inflation may linger until April. Health and motor vehicle insurance prices are also expected to restrain CPI in the coming months. Among other inflation gauges, the New York Fed’s monthly survey of consumer expectations rose in December, with consumers expecting 3.4% price growth over the next year, up from 3.2% in November, while longer-term expectations were steady. In December, ISM data, manufacturing prices remained in expansion, matching November, while the services prices index fell to its lowest since March 2025, though it has still exceeded 60 for 13 straight months. Looking ahead, Wells sees inflation continuing to ease, supporting a patient Fed stance.Chinese Trade Balance (Wed): China’s December trade data are expected to cap a historically strong year after the trade surplus surpassed USD 1tn by November, underpinned by resilient exports and softer imports. Analysts at ING expect export growth to slow modestly to about 3.0% Y/Y in December, from 5.9% in November, reflecting earlier front-loading, while imports are seen rising about 1.6% Y/Y, versus 1.9% previously. ING forecasts a December surplus of about USD 118.9bn, taking the full-year 2025 surplus close to USD 1.2tn.US Retail Sales (Wed):The November retail sales data are due on Wednesday. Bank of America’s monthly consumer checkpoint data showed seasonally adjusted spending growth per household was flat M/M, while the annual rate of total credit and debit card spending per household slowed to 1.3% Y/Y, which the bank said points to solid growth but at a less robust pace than in October. Holiday item spending was strong in October and November but slowed around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, according to the data, suggesting some consumers shopped earlier for deals. The bank said consumer finances appear healthy, with little reliance on credit or buy now, pay later, although card data showed a small but rising BNPL share. It added that large gaps persist between higher- and lower-income households in spending and wage growth, with higher-income households lifting spending by 2.6% Y/Y, while lower-income groups lagged with a gain of just 0.6% Y/Y. After-tax wage growth edged up to 4% Y/Y for higher-income households and to 1.4% Y/Y for lower-income households.UK GDP (Wed):The November print follows on from a softer than expected October series, which saw the economy begin Q4 in contractionary territory at -0.1% M/M vs a 0.1% Q/Q Q3 print. A release that weighed on Sterling at the time. For Q4, the BoE expects zero growth in headline GDP, as per the December statement; note, a fuller assessment of the economy accounting for the November Budget will be provided by the BoE in the February MPR. In the context of this, the data may well be looked through to a degree, as the economy’s performance was subject to uncertainty in the pre-budget window. A point highlighted by the S&P PMI series at the time, “Survey respondents widely commented on business challenges linked to fragile client confidence, heightened risk aversion and elevated policy uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget. Many firms noted that major spending decisions had been delayed, while some also cited long-term growth headwinds from subdued investment spending”.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

Summary:Trump calls for 10% credit-card APR cap for one year, effective Jan 20, 2026. No enforcement detail: unclear if voluntary or government-mandated. Part of a populist “affordability” burst this week (incl. MBS buying idea and ban on institutional home buyers). Big gap to current pricing: Fed data shows 22.30% (Nov 2025) on the key credit-card rate series. Without legislation / clear authority, this looks like headline politics first, policy mechanics later.President Donald Trump has called for a one-year cap of 10% on US credit-card interest rates, saying consumers are being “ripped off” and framing the move as an “affordability” push. The proposal would start January 20, 2026, the first anniversary of his return to the White House, but Trump provided no detail on the mechanism, leaving open whether he expects voluntary compliance from issuers or is signalling some form of government enforcement. The lack of detail matters, because credit-card pricing is not something a president can simply “announce” into existence. In practice, a hard cap would typically require Congressional legislation and/or actions through the US regulatory framework. Yet the main federal watchdog for card practices, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), has been a long-running target of conservatives, and the Trump administration has pursued steps that would reduce or constrain its reach. What Trump is doing, clearly, is leaning into a string of populist, social-media-first affordability declarations this week, high on punchy intent, low on executable detail. In the days prior he posted about ordering “his representatives” to buy mortgage bonds to push borrowing costs lower, and about banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Together, the sequence reads as an attempt to reclaim the cost-of-living narrative with simple targets (banks, Wall Street, institutions) and headline-friendly numbers (10%). This all, of course, in an election year (mid-terms) with Trump's popularity continuing to make new lows and therefore threatening the Republican majorities in Congress. I posted earlier in the week that I expect populist announcements and an eventual hit to the US dollar (not yet though, the dollar higher on Friday: investingLive Americas market news wrap: Nonfarm payrolls a touch soft, no tariff decision)On the numbers, the policy would be a dramatic cut versus prevailing rates: the Federal Reserve’s series for commercial bank credit-card interest (accounts assessed interest) shows ~22.30% in late 2025. That gap underscores why markets and issuers will focus on “how” rather than “what”, and why, without a clear legislative pathway, the announcement looks more like political signalling than an immediately actionable policy shift. Congressional interest in caps is real and notably bipartisan, past proposals have sought a 10% ceiling, but they have not become law. Until a bill advances (or a credible regulatory/administrative route is spelled out), the most likely near-term impact is messaging and volatility in related headlines, rather than an instant repricing of consumer credit. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US December non-farm payrolls +50K vs +60K expectedCanada employment change 8.2K versus -5.0 K estimateJapan's Takaichi weighs calling a snap election for mid-FebruaryUS October housing starts 1.246m vs 1.325m expectedFed's Barkin: Today's drop in the unemployment rate is welcomeFed's Bostic says inflation is 'a lot' above the 2% targetNo opinion today on tariffs from the US Supreme CourtHow Trump leaked the non-farm payrolls reportWhite House says Trump jobs report leak was "inadvertent public disclosure"US UMich January prelim consumer sentiment 54.0 vs 53.5 expectedThe US earnings calendar heats up next week with banks and airlinesMarkets:Gold up $28 to $4503Silver up 3.8%WTI crude up $1.20 to $58.97US 10-year yields flat at 4.17%S&P 500 up 0.8% to fresh recordUSD leads, JPY lagsIt was a lively news day but not as much as it could have been. The Supreme Court released a decision on Friday as expected but it wasn't about tariffs, so we will continue to wait for that. The next possible date is Wednesday, which has also been scheduled as a 'decision day'.In terms of what happened, the non-farm payrolls report led to volatile trading. The dollar rose on the kneejerk, then fell around 25 pips due to the softer headline and revisions, then started a long climb as the market focused on the lower unemployment rate. That view was validated by Barkin, who said he welcomed falling unemployment.Overall, the US dollar moves weren't big.The loonie didn't get any help from a strong jobs report as USD/CAD rose for the six straight day to start the year. That pair is now at a five week high, even as oil prices rise. Part of the reason is compressing Canadian heavy oil spreads after the US-Venezuela coup. The big loser on the day was the yen and most of that came before the election reports but I think that's a critical spot to watch. If Takaichi launches a campaign and promises even more spending, that could turbocharge worries about Japanese indebtedness and further boost long-term borrowing costs. She's polling well so it shouldn't be a surprise if she decides to pull the trigger.A bid for precious metals came midway through US trading and I wonder if the market is sensing weekend risk after the drama in Venezuela. It seems as though Cuba is on the clock and maybe Greenland too. Further, keep an eye on Iran this weekend as protests there likely lifted gold and oil prices in Friday.Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Friday was about the jobs report but the week ahead will see the market tilt towards earnings.. The S&P 500 is flirting with 7,000, yields are looking for direction, and the solid economy in 2026 narrative is crowded.The bank numbers and commentary will serve as a high-stakes health check on the US consumer—specifically if loan losses are finally starting to bite. If the consumer is cracking under the weight of higher rates, Jamie Dimon’s commentary will be the first place we see it.Beyond the banks, we’re looking for a signal that the freight recession has found a floor and if chip demand has any red flags.Here is what to watch:Banks:It's big bank earnings week with: JPM, Wells Fargo, Citi, BofATuesday (JPM) & Wednesday (WFC, C, BAC)On the macro view, it's about credit quality. I'm looking for signs that consumers are falling behind on payments.EPS Consensus (JPM): ~$5.01 (Whispers are higher, closer to $5.10)Watch credit card delinquencies.We know the affluent consumer is fine (wealth effect from stocks/housing). We need to know how badly the lower end consumer is hurting. Watch for loan loss provisions and commentary about spending. For the market more broadly, there could also be some talk about M&A, which would also be a positive economic and market signal.JPM CEO Jamie Dimon is typically candid but he's been hit-or-miss on macro signals so take his views with that in mind.Airlines:At the top end of the K-shaped economy, watch for Delta Airlines earnings on Tuesday morning. The consensus is $1.63. Travel is a good barometer of economic confidence but what we're likely seeing in airlines is high end consumer traveling more, including in premium seats and middle income consumers getting squeezed. That's been working ok for airlines and I think they're a good investment but if those economy seats don't fill, that could change.Another signal worth watching is commentary on business travel, which has slowly been coming back post-covid but still isn't all the way there.Chipmakers:TSMC on Thursday morning is arguably the big one for the week. They make Nvidia's chips and have great visibility into the order book. With valuations very high, any sign of weakness whatsoever could spread broadly in tech.TSMC is the bellwether. If they guide for continued acceleration in "High Performance Computing" (HPC), the AI bull run gets a green light for 2026. Any hesitation here will drag down the entire Nasdaq (NVDA, AMD).Freight:J.B. Hunt (JBHT) reports Thursday after the close. Manufacturing and freight have been in a brutal recession and signs of a bottom are hard to find but some freight names bounced from the lows in Q4, so there is optimism headed into the new year. Is it misplaced? JBHT could tell us. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The White House is out with damage control after Trump leaked the jobs numbers late yesterday on Truth Social."Following the regular procedure of presidents being prebriefed on economic data releases, there was an inadvertent public disclosure of aggregate data that was partially derived from pre-released information. The White House is accordingly reviewing protocols regarding economic data releases. ”The statement continued with some kind of rant about the media.If you missed it: How Trump leaked the non-farm payrolls reportThe jobs report itself has led to a diminished pricing for a rate cut in March. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines from Barkin:Federal Reserve changes must be finely tuned to incoming dataBoth sides of central bank mandate face significant risksUnemployment remains at historic lows but has recently ticked upInflation has decreased but still remains above 2% targetInterest rates are now within range of neutral estimatesNo one wants labor market to experience further deteriorationUS economy has shown remarkable resilience despite major disruptionsJob growth and demand are currently narrow, driven by health care and aiHigh-income consumers are sustaining demand as sentiment dips elsewhereUncertainty from 2025 is expected to diminish as the "fog lifts"Tax refunds and deregulation will likely add stimulus to economyLower mortgage rates will not resolve fundamental housing supply shortagesBarkin is likely on the sidelines as earlier this month he said rates were "within the range of estimates of neutral". He is characterizing the current economic phase as a "delicate balance" where risks to employment and inflation are now roughly equal. While he acknowledges the economy’s resilience, he warns that growth is currently "narrow," heavily reliant on the AI ecosystem and wealthy consumers.He is particularly focused on layoff data to see if the current "low-hiring, low-firing" environment shifts toward a more significant downturn. Looking ahead, he anticipates that fiscal stimulus from recent tax changes and a reduction in policy uncertainty should support hiring and investment throughout 2026.In late 2025 (especially during the government data shutdown in October/November), Barkin described the Fed as "driving through fog" and "feeling its way through" a data-poor environment. His 2026 outlook is more optimistic; he expects the "fog to lift" and uncertainty to diminish.Barkin isn't a voter this year but he's a good barometer for the core of the FOMC. The dollar was unmoved on the comments and the market is now pricing April as 50/50 for a rate cut. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold and silver have been volatile to start the year so far but the bulls have shown some impressive willingness to buy moderate dips. Now both are flirting with notable closes. Gold is attempting only its second-ever weekly close above $4500 after doing that on December 22 in holiday-thinned trading. Silver is attempting a weekly close above $80 for the first time ever.Both would be bullish signs.There was some profit taking after the huge moves in precious metals just after Christmas but they've found a footing in light of geopolitical turmoil. The US capture of Venezulan President Maduro is one factor but I would argue the even larger one is Trump continuing to openly call for the annexation of Greenland.That's the kind of thing that would certainly cause a schism with Europe and break NATO. It would leave no doubts as to the old world order returning and spark deep uncertainty. Along with that is the Supreme Court decision on tariffs. We were hoping for some clarity today but we didn't get a decision so we will keep waiting. Aside from the case itself, we will need to find out whether the Supreme Court is just a rubber stamp for the administration. If so, then it raises some troubling questions about the future of the US Constitutional order and whether or not Trump will try to outlast his second term.In terms of the chart, this is starting to look good for silver. It's managing to consolidate right at/near the top of the recent range. There have been efforts to knock it down towards a deeper retracement but the bids have been waiting. If there's some kind of bullish catalyst (a dovish Fed chair?) then maybe we see a fresh push.The gold chart is similar, though not nearly as parabolic. It's consolidating just below $4600 but if it can break out, I would expect $5000 to act as a magnet. Note the positive seasonals for precious metals run into February. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's time for Fed not to lose sight of inflation missionFed's job and inflation mandates are somewhat in tensionNeed to be 'laser focused' on lowering inflationInflation is 'a lot' above the 2% targetNo hire, no fire continues to be key labor market dynamicThe job market has been cooler but it's not clear its fundamentally weakerHearing about stress from sectors that depended on foreign workersCost pressures are not just from tariffsIt's very important we get inflation under controlInflation issues are still one of the economy's main challengesNow ended pandemic supports had buoyed lower income AmericansIn many ways U.S. has long had a K-shaped economyHigh end consumers have been spending, economy has been resilientAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintained a cautious, hawkish stance in his radio comments today, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve remains "laser focused" on returning inflation to its 2% target. He acknowledged that while the labor market is cooling, it is not yet fundamentally weak, describing the current environment as a "no hire, no fire" dynamic.Bostic noted a growing tension between the Fed's dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment. He highlighted that inflation remains significantly above target and remains a primary economic challenge. Furthermore, he pointed to a "K-shaped" economic reality where high-end consumer spending remains resilient, while lower-income households face increased stress following the end of pandemic-era supports.Addressing supply-side concerns, Bostic mentioned that cost pressures extend beyond tariffs, citing specific labor stresses in sectors dependent on foreign workers. None of this is a surprise as Bostic already said that he "penciled in no further reductions" in rates in 2026.That's in contrast to a market that sees 53 bps in easing this year but in the short-term the odds of a cut only rise to 50% in April, as today's non-farm payrolls report and lower unemployment rate pushed the timeline back.On top of that, Bostic is retiring on Feb 28 and we're waiting to hear who his replacement will be This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The non-farm payrolls came in a bit softer than the whisper numbers, giving the "bad news is good news" crowd a reason to cheer. For the ECB, it doesn't change much, but for equity bulls, it was the green light they needed to keep the momentum going.Here’s the closing scoreboard for the week ending January 9, 2026:The STOXX 600 rose 2.23% on the week, a solid performance that speaks to improving breadth across sectors. Cyclicals quietly outperformed defensives, suggesting investors are leaning into growth without fully abandoning caution.Germany’s DAX led the major benchmarks with a 2.86% weekly gain, continuing to benefit from easing energy concerns and resilience in industrial exporters. The move also reflects growing confidence that Europe’s manufacturing downturn may be stabilizing rather than accelerating.France’s CAC 40 added 1.89%, helped by strength in luxury and industrial names, while the FTSE 100 climbed 1.82%, outperforming global peers as energy and financials provided ballast.Southern Europe lagged slightly after a great year in 2025 but still finished higher. Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 0.75%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 rose 0.92%, with banks consolidating after strong year-to-date runs.That's a solid first real trading week. There isn't too much intrigue on the ECB front as they've moved to the sidelines. In politics, they've been hammering out a MERCOSUR (South America) trading deal and that looks like it's heading towards completion. The hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal appear to be slipping but peace deals often come out of the blue so we will see what happens next. Russia used a hyper-sonic missile on Friday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Late yesterday, Trump posted this on Truth Social:The problem is, that number didn't match up with what had been reported in the non-farm payrolls report data that had already been released. It also came after the Council of Economic Advisors was briefed on the jobs report (usually the afternoon before the release).The numbers only make sense if you add in the data released today:Now it would have taken some fancy modeling to map this to today's release and trade on it because there were revisions to Oct/Nov data today that would have to be factored it.That said, knowing these numbers certainly removed some of the tail risks around a very strong or very weak data point. The also highlight an administration that's playing loose with market-moving economic data. It undermines confidence that all the jobs numbers aren't leaked and traded on ahead of time.In terms of market reaction, the US dollar has been all over the map since the release. The kneejerk was higher on the falling unemployment, then it reversed based on large downward revisions to the jobs number but it's reversed again and the dollar is now broadly stronger.Mixed in with that market reaction has been the Supreme Court punting on the tariff decision for the week and a Japanese report suggesting a February election is coming. We're also dealing with flows around the start of the new year.US stock markets are higher today and that could be driving some flows as well but note that gold just broke $4500 and that speaks to some of the chaos in international affairs and leaks like this undermining confidence. Remember that the gold rally really kicked off in late August when Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- the agency that releases the non-farm payrolls report. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The waiting continues.The US Supreme Court works in mysterious ways. The announced on Tuesday that this would be a 'decision day' but the court always has a large number of decisions to make and they don't pre-announce which one it will be.They technically have until June to make the tariff decision but because it was an expedited hearing with important economic effects, it's expected in January or February. As for the exact date, there is a large amount of work before the Supreme Court in the week beginning January 19, so that's a good bet.Until then, we will continue to wait for 'decision day' announcements and then prepare accordingly. For stocks with large tariff exposure, this is a tough trading paradigm because we don't know what's coming. For what it's worth, the administration sounds pretty confident that it can quickly reconstitute tariffs but whether those hold up may depend on what the Court says about these tariffs and the reasoning, particularly if they rule it's a 'major question', which is something that needs to go through Congress.“Our ‌expectation is that ⁠we’re going to ​win, and if we don’t win, then we know that we’ve got other tools ​that we could use that get us to the same place,” Hassett said in an ⁠interview on CNBC earlier today.Hassett specified that Section 301 would be part of the mix and that Greer is leading it (itself a bit of a clue). They've previously said it could also include Section 122 tariffs. See: How the White House will pivot if the Supreme Court strikes down current tariffsUltimately, I think this was a good dress rehearsal but if this continues into February, it's going to get tiresome for markets as it adds unnecessary uncertainty.The decision that was rendered today was on Bowe vs United States and the court ruled that federal prisoners are not barred from filing "do-over" claims in second or successive postconviction motions and that the Court has the jurisdiction to review such certification decisions. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Final December reading was 53.31-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.1% prior5 year inflation 3.4% vs 3.2% priorCurrent conditions 52.4 vs 50.7 priorExpectations 55.0 vs 54.6 priorThis isn't a great economic indicator as answers are increasingly politicized and the inflation numbers are volatile. There was a time when this was tier-2 economic data but it's been slowly downgraded. It's final moment in the sun was in covid when a jump in inflation expectations caused a panicky Fed to tilt towards deeper rate hikes. That jump was later revised away in an embarrassing moment for the Powell Fed.As for this report, it corresponds with a better mood from consumers. Spending over the holidays was solid, though not spectacular. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewToday's stock market heatmap reveals a contentious battleground across various sectors. Technology sees mixed outcomes, with notable declines and slight advances within sub-sectors. Industrials and Healthcare, however, show promising resilience, driving up overall market sentiment.? Tech Sector: Microsoft (MSFT) dropped by 0.44%, paving a cautious path for the broader tech landscape. Nvidia (NVDA) also faced a minor setback with a -0.30% dip. On a positive note, Oracle (ORCL) ticked up by 0.21%.?️ Industrials Surge: General Electric (GE) enjoyed a 0.62% rise, and Boeing (BA) inched up by 0.71%, indicating robust investor confidence in industrials amidst broader uncertainties.? Healthcare: Eli Lilly (LLY) led with a gain of 0.77%, reinforcing the sector's continued appeal amid healthcare innovations and solidity.Market Mood and TrendsThe current market mood reflects a spectrum of investor sentiment, with noteworthy caution in technology shadowed by optimism in industrial and healthcare stocks. The juxtaposition indicates a strategic reevaluation among traders, weighed by concerns over tech valuations and potential industrial growth scenarios.Moreover, the downturns in technology may hint at the start of a price correction following months of highs, while industrials seem to captivate investors looking for stable, incremental growth.Strategic RecommendationsFor Investors: This mixed market environment presents unique opportunities and risks. Here are some strategic steps to consider:Analyze and potentially rebalance your tech-heavy portfolios. Look beyond the immediate tech headwinds and seek opportunities within advancing industrial firms.Consider increasing exposure to sectors like healthcare, where consistent growth and innovation could drive portfolio performance.Keep an eye on industrial and healthcare stocks, leveraging their resilience as potential buffers against tech-driven market fluctuations.For more insights and updates, visit InvestingLive.com ? and stay informed on the dynamic shifts unfolding in today's market spaces. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may be looking to capitalize on high personal approval ratings and a honeymoon period to consolidate power in the lower house.A Yomiuri report says she's mulling dissolving the lower house for a snap election in mid or mid-February. Takaichi became the first woman ever to lead Japan's dominant ruling party after winning leadership of the party in October and was sworn in as Prime Minister later that month. However she leads an LDP-Ishin minority after long-time coalition partner Komeito withdrew support due to Takaichi's hawkish views. Her ability to pass legislation is limited so she may be trying to be the first Japanese woman to win an election as Prime Minister, validating her position and consolidating power.She is polling well right now so this isn't a big surprise but she has an ambitious agenda and will need a stronger position in parliament to pass it. If dissolved, all 465 Lower House seats become vacant and a general election must be held within 40 days.A big factor in the election may be the yen, which struggled badly in the second half of 2025 and is flirting with a 9-month low today.The USD/JPY chart also flatters the yen's performance as it hit a record low recently against the euro and the worst levels since the 1990s against the pound.That weakness helps Japanese export competitiveness but it's a dangerous game to play with imported inflation. Japanese bond markets are also increasingly vulnerable. Long-term borrowing costs have spiked to the highest in decades.If Takaichi runs on increasing spending and wins the support to do that, we could see even more selling in Japanese bonds, something that risks a spiral and a crisis that could spread across borders.Watch Japan very closely this year. The number one risk I see in the foreign exchange market in 2026 is Japan. The yen has been struggling for the past six months and it’s close to a boiling point in Tokyo. There were some stronger warnings about FX intervention late in December. Japan is the most-indebted major economy in the world and the demographics are terrible. The US is leaving a lot of uncertainty around its alliance with Japan and China is eating its lunch in manufacturing. There is something of ‘boy who cried wolf’ situation around Japanese debt as people have been calling for a crisis for 20 years but Japanese borrowing costs are hitting 30 year highs. These things can escalate quickly and could turn into an international problem. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.