KEY POINTS:Gold rallied overnight on geopolitical news US NFP report on Friday a key risk eventBig picture trend remains skewed to the upsideTrendline around the 4230 level could act as strong supportFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold has been supported recently by the soft US NFP and CPI reports before the Christmas holidays. That helped to push the precious metals into new all-time highs before a quick selloff brought prices back to the original levels. Today, gold saw some upside overnight on geopolitical news . In fact, the US President Trump escalated rhetoric across Latin America, reinforcing Washington’s assertion of control over post-Maduro Venezuela while openly signalling that Colombia and Mexico could also face US action as part of a widening campaign against criminal networks and regional instability.This week we have the December NFP report coming up, and while the previous report might have been taken with a pinch of salt due to shutdown related issues, this one should give us a clearer picture. Strong data might lead to a correction, while soft figures should keep on supporting the upside.In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function. But in the short term, a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations could weigh on the market. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold pushed into a new all-time high during the Christmas week but eventually erased all the gains. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 3887 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 4440 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have the upper bound of the average daily range for today standing right around the resistance. This suggests that it’s unlikely that we will see a sustained breakout today, so there’s a good chance that we either consolidate here or pull back into the minor trendline. We will likely find dip-buyers around the minor trendline targeting a break above the resistance, while the sellers will look for a break below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP, the US ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.VIDEO This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Monday starts quietly in terms of economic events for the FX market. In the U.S., the focus will be on the ISM manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, the services PMI data will be released for the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. while Wednesday brings inflation data from Australia and the eurozone. In the U.S., attention will be on the ADP nonfarm employment change, the ISM services PMI, and JOLTS job openings. On Thursday, Switzerland will release its CPI data, while the U.S. will publish weekly unemployment claims. Friday is packed with key labor market data. Canada will report employment change and the unemployment rate, while the U.S. will release average hourly earnings m/m, nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations. In Australia, the consensus for CPI m/m is 0.1% versus 0.0% previously. CPI y/y is expected at 3.7%, down from 3.8%, while the trimmed mean CPI m/m is forecast at 0.2% versus 1.0% previously. As a note, the release this week covers CPI data for November, with December figures expected later this month. October’s monthly CPI printed in line with expectations, though it was slightly firmer than the market had anticipated. While the expanded monthly CPI dataset provides a clearer view of price developments across the Australian economy, its relatively short history means that some of the detail will take time to interpret with confidence. For this week’s release, a modest monthly increase is expected, with the annual rate likely to remain steady near 3.8%. Westpac analysts note that a sharp 16% rise in electricity prices is the main driver behind the stronger monthly outcome. In Switzerland, the consensus for CPI m/m is 0.0% vs. -0.2% prior. The SNB forecasts that inflation will remain in the 0-2% target range for some time, with Chairman Schlegel previously noting that the softer inflation does not necessarily increase the likelihood of a return to negative rates. This week’s jobs data will be important for the Bank of Canada's January policy meeting. After a run of firmer labour market results through the fall and an unusually sharp drop in the unemployment rate in November, December’s figures are expected to show some giveback. Employment is forecast to decline modestly, reversing part of November’s outsized gain, while the unemployment rate is projected to edge higher. Analysts at RBC argue this is more likely a correction following November’s volatility than evidence of renewed deterioration in labour market conditions. Recent jobs data have been choppy, with gains skewed toward part-time roles and younger workers, alongside softer participation. However, more stable indicators, such as core-age unemployment and wage growth, have held up, pointing to underlying resilience. Trade-sensitive sectors remain a weak spot, but there is limited evidence of broader spillovers across the economy. Hiring demand appears to be stabilizing, and slower population growth should help ease labour supply pressures. From a monetary policy perspective, the BoC is not expected to cut rates again in the near term. In the U.S., the consensus for average hourly earnings is 0.3% m/m, compared with 0.1% previously. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 57K, down from 64K, while the unemployment rate is forecast to edge lower from 4.6% to 4.5%. In recent months, payroll growth has been minimal, with employment essentially flat on a three-month basis and well below the pace seen earlier in the year. While part of this weakness reflects temporary factors, such as federal workers exiting payrolls under deferred resignation programs, hiring in the private sector has also slowed noticeably, outside of a few resilient areas such as healthcare. More concerning is the steady rise in the unemployment rate, which has moved above the Fed’s estimate of its longer-run neutral level. Data quality issues related to the government shutdown add some uncertainty, but the broader message is consistent with other indicators pointing to a gradual cooling in labour market conditions, including lower quit rates and higher continuing claims. December’s jobs report should provide a clearer picture as standard data collection resumes. Hiring is expected to remain subdued relative to historical norms, though Wells Fargo analysts don't foresee further deterioration happening in the labor market. Wage growth is likely to remain soft, helping to contain labour-driven inflation pressures as the job market remains sluggish rather than outright weak. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

Expresses grave concern over US seizing MaduroUS actions violate international lawCalls on US to immediately release MaduroChina is closely following the security situation in VenezuelaChina has always maintained positive communication with Venezuelan governmentOn oil exports, China believes its interest in Venezuela will be protected by lawIf situation in Venezuela changes, China's willingness to deepen cooperation will not changeThe oil exports part is arguably the most interesting in all of this. For some context, Venezuela has seen its production and export capabilities crippled amid political instability and sanctions. That led to the country only pumping around 900k barrels per day in 2025. To put that in perspective, it only accounts for less than 1% of global oil supply.In terms of crude exports, it's lesser in the range of 768k bpd last year. And more than half of that goes to China.As the US now takes over the situation in Venezuela, this will be one thing that will see a notable impact. Trump had previously suggested that China will continue to receive some Venezuelan oil, but the amount is likely to be limited.Amid sanctions previously, independent refineries who were willing to take the risk didn't have too many options besides China to work with. But if the sanctions are now lifted, it's pretty much a free game and open market for Venezuelan crude exports.And guess who stands to benefit the most from that? The US of course, naturally for geographical reasons.In any case, Beijing also adds that it holds a "no interference policy" in all of this. And that however the situation changes, China will remain "good friends" with Latin American countries. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

For years, retail traders have faced a fundamental disadvantage that had nothing to do with skill, discipline, or market knowledge.It came down to data.Institutional traders have long operated with dedicated quant teams, proprietary algorithms, and access to historical analysis that most retail traders could only dream of. while hedge funds made decisions backed by decades of probability data, the average retail trader was left with chart patterns, YouTube indicators, and gut instinct.The result has been predictable: most retail traders struggle with consistency, not because they're incapable, but because they've been forced to compete without the tools institutions use to gain an edge.But that dynamic is starting to shift.The data gap that's defined retail tradingThe frustrating reality is that the data retail traders needed always existed. Historical patterns could be analyzed. Probabilities could be calculated. The information was there, but all of it had to be done by hand.For decades, getting institutional-quality trading data meant one of two things: paying thousands of dollars monthly for professional data feeds, or learning to code and building custom analysis systems from scratch.Neither option works long term for the average trader. Most don't have unlimited amounts of resources, and most aren’t quant-level programmers getting paid to spend all day building algos or strategies.So retail traders continued making decisions based on incomplete information, trading setups without knowing the actual historical probabilities behind them, and wondering why consistency felt impossible.The rise of probability-based trading platformsA new category of fintech tools is emerging to close this gap.These platforms aggregate massive amounts of historical market data and translate it into probability-based insights that don't require coding skills or expensive subscriptions to access. The concept is straightforward: instead of guessing whether a setup might work, traders can see how similar setups have actually performed over defined time periods.Edgeful is one platform leading this shift. built specifically for retail traders, it analyzes thousands of data points across futures, stocks, and other instruments, then presents the findings through intuitive probability reports.The approach represents a fundamental change in how retail traders can operate: decisions backed by historical data rather than emotion or intuition.What probability-based analysis looks like in practiceTo understand why this matters, consider a common trading setup: gap fills.A gap occurs when price opens above or below the previous session's close. many traders look to "fade" these gaps, betting that price will retrace back to fill the opening gap. It's a reasonable strategy in theory.But the data reveals something most traders don't realize: the probability of a gap filling can vary dramatically depending on factors like the day of the week.For example, historical analysis might show that gaps up on a particular index fill 86% of the time on Tuesdays, but only 65% of the time on Fridays. Same ticker, same setup, completely different probabilities.Here’s Friday’s data for ES over the last 6 months: Without this data, a trader treats both scenarios identically. Which means they’re trading setups the exact same way not knowing the actual data says you should be trading them completely differently.With it, they can make significantly more informed decisions about which setups actually offer favorable odds.This is the kind of edge that was previously reserved for institutional desks with dedicated research teams. Probability-based platforms are now making it accessible to individual traders.Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves risk, and historical probabilities do not guarantee future outcomes.What this shift means for retail tradersIt's important to be clear about what probability-based tools can and can't do.They don't guarantee profits. they don't eliminate risk. Anyone claiming otherwise is selling false promises.What they do offer is something retail traders have historically lacked: the ability to make decisions grounded in actual data rather than speculation.When traders know the historical probability behind a setup, they're no longer just guessing. they can build strategies around quantifiable edges and, perhaps more importantly, maintain discipline because their approach is built on something tangible.The gap between retail and institutional traders will likely never fully close. institutions will always have advantages in execution speed, capital, and resources.But the data advantage that once separated them is narrowing. Retail traders now have access to probability-based analysis that simply wasn't available to them five years ago.For an industry where information has always meant edge, that's a meaningful shift. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases. The Swiss Manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.6 vs 49.7 prior, but whatever the data shows, the SNB is not going to do anything in terms of monetary policy. The same goes for the Swiss Retail Sales data which is expected at 3.0% for the Y/Y figure.The Eurozone Sentix index is expected -5.0 vs -6.2 prior. The ECB is comfortably in a neutral stance with policy decisions taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis and data dependent approach. The central bank has repeatedly stated that it won't respond to small or short-term deviations from the 2% target unless there's a clear shock in the economy. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the only highlight is the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The index is expected at 48.3 vs 48.2 prior. It's been falling for three consecutive months and the commentary, despite being mixed, leant on a more weaker side.The latest S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI showed that this softer trend persisted in December with the agency noting "weaker gain in production, amid a renewed contraction in new order books (the first in exactly a year)", and added that "international sales continued to fall, in part linked to tariffs, which also continued to push up operating expenses at an elevated pace." On the inflation side, although remaining historically elevated, "both input and output prices rose at their slowest rates for 11 months". This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It's all playing out well for precious metals to start the new year thus far. Gold and silver are once again in the spotlight today with the former posting gains of 2.1% to $4,420 and the latter up 3.7% to $75.46 respectively. This follows from a strong rally early on Friday but one that fizzled out quite a bit towards the end of last week.In the case of gold, the selling hit after price action tested the 100-hour moving average. Sellers held firm in keeping a more bearish near-term bias on Friday. However, the tables have now turned as buyers are the ones exerting dominance to flip the script today. The jump to start the week sees the near-term bias turn more bullish on a push above both the 100 and 200-hour moving averages:The technical story is also the same for silver after dropping off on Friday on a test of its own 100-hour moving average. And price action there also sees a push above both the key hourly moving averages today as buyers look to officially kick start the new year in style.The early focus on geopolitical tensions is one key reason that reinforces a more bullish outlook for precious metals in general.It's still early in the year but January tends to be a good month for the likes of gold from a seasonal perspective. I talked more about here at the end of last week: Precious metals continue to hog the spotlight to start the new year This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day but things will slowly pick up as we officially going on the first trading week of the new year. The full list can be seen below.As mentioned last week, start of the year positioning flows will matter more when looking at price action for major currencies. But so far today, the dollar is holding firmer with geopolitical tensions in play. On the week itself, don't forget that we will have the first US non-farm payrolls data release to deal with too. So, that will be a big one to watch as we ease into the new year.For now, the expiries board is a little bit on the thinner side. As such, don't expect too much impact with the larger ones today being quite far away from the prevailing spot price. Carry on as you will.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

As we transitioned into the new year, the narrative for 2026 is that the dollar will continue to soften amid the myriad of same factors that played out in 2025. But for the time being, geopolitical tensions are taking center stage with the situation in Venezuela in particular. And that seems to be helping the dollar somewhat as we get things going this week.It's still early on of course but the early flows are dollar positive with EUR/USD slipping back under 1.1700 and USD/JPY nudging up above the 157.00 mark currently.The latter will continue to be one of the more interesting ones with Japan continuing to have to tussle between a prime minister that wants to push a more expansionary fiscal agenda and a central bank that is trying to raise interest rates. At the balance, the path of least resistance still seems to be for the Japanese yen to weaken - at least for now.Going back to EUR/USD, the drop continues with a rejection of 1.1800 from the later stages of December trading. The 100-day moving average at 1.1663 will be a key support point to be mindful of this week, as the near-term bias holds more bearish currently.Looking at the macro picture though, the dollar will continue to face sustained headwinds in the first half of this year. The backdrop of de-dollarisation flows, fiscal concerns, policy incoherence, Fed rate cuts, and eventually political risks ahead of the midterm elections will be key drivers in impacting the greenback during the course of the year.As such, any positive flows from geopolitical tensions - which are at best temporary - will remain questionable in terms of arguing for a stronger standing for the currency. So, just keep that in mind.However, that is not to say that other major currencies are without their own struggles.The euro has to contend with a flailing economy and stagflation pressures, particularly in Germany, as well as France's political dissonance. Meanwhile, the UK has a deepening cost of living crisis as well as fiscal concerns to deal with too. The latter might be put off slightly after the autumn budget but it definitely won't be going away any time soon.Then, you have Japan which is suffering from fiscal/debt issues as well alongside a battle between the government and the BOJ on the interest rate path.So, this year looks to be one that will be a case of who has the cleanest shirt among the dirty laundry. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Recap: BOJ’s Ueda signals more rate hikes as wage–price cycle strengthensBitcoin rises as PwC leans into crypto on US regulatory shiftICYMI: China front-loads 2026 growth with US$42bn infrastructure project rolloutNomura warns China EV demand to cool as subsidy policy tightensBOJ’s Ueda signals further rate hikes as wage–price cycle strengthensEconomists warn sticky inflation may force RBA back into rate hikes in 2026China Rating Dog December 2025 Services PMI 52.0 (expected 52.0, prior 52.1)Gold and silver on fire in Asia trade, Monday, January 5, 2026PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0230 (vs. estimate at 6..9952)Trump claims control of Venezuela, warns Colombia and Mexico could be nextJapan's Final December manufacturing PMI 50.0 (vs. preliminary 49.7, prior 48.7)PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9952 – Reuters estimateYen doing what it does best ... ****ing the bed again. USD/JPY back above 157.00.Venezuela - Goldman sees 2026 Brent at $56 & WTI at $52, flags longer-term downside risksGlobex is open. Oil prices down following Trump's kidnapping of Maduro.Fed’s Paulson signals patience on rate cuts amid economic reassessmentOPEC+ holds output steady as geopolitical tensions riseHappy New Year, especially to Venezuelans! Monday early FX rates guideNewsquawk Week Ahead: US and Canada jobs, ISM PMIs, EZ Inflation, and Fed Chair pick (TBC)US attacks Venezuela, captures President MaduroSummary:Oil volatile: Crude swung sharply as ample global supply offset rising geopolitical risk; early losses reversed before prices drifted back to finish modestly lower.Venezuela escalation: Trump threatened further action, claimed US control of Venezuela, pushed for US oil company access and floated potential moves against Colombia, Iran and India.OPEC+ steady: Output held unchanged, reinforcing the view that markets remain well supplied despite political risk.Asia data mixed: Japan’s manufacturing PMI returned to neutral as output stabilised, while China’s services PMI slowed for a fourth month amid weak exports and job cuts.Central bank signal: BOJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed the likelihood of further rate hikes as confidence grows in a sustained wage–price cycle.Equities higher: China’s Shanghai Composite topped 4,000, while Japanese stocks jumped nearly 3% led by heavy industry and semiconductors.FX and havens: The US dollar strengthened broadly; gold and silver surged on safe-haven demand.Crypto bid: Bitcoin rose as PwC signalled deeper engagement in crypto, citing clearer US regulation under the GENIUS Act.It was a volatile session for oil markets, with prices swinging sharply as traders weighed ample global supply against a fast-moving geopolitical backdrop.Crude initially dropped lower in Sunday evening Globex trade, with Brent slipping toward $60 a barrel and WTI easing below $57. The market largely took the US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in stride after officials confirmed there had been no disruption to production or refining at state oil company PDVSA. Sentiment was further weighed by OPEC+ holding output steady, with analysts noting that plentiful global supply leaves the market well insulated against any near-term interruption to Venezuelan exports.That early dip was short-lived. Prices rebounded above opening levels as geopolitical headlines gathered pace, only to fade again later in the session. As I post, oil has drifted back to trade modestly lower on the day.Political risk continued to build. Speaking aboard Air Force One, US President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric, threatening further attacks on Venezuela and asserting that the US now has “total access” to the country’s resources, saying “we’re in charge” and that Washington intends to “run everything.” Trump said he wants US oil companies allowed into Venezuela, signalled openness to deploying US troops on the ground, hinted at possible military action against Colombia, threatened strikes on Iran, and warned he could raise tariffs on India if it does not cooperate on restricting Russian oil flows.Away from geopolitics, fresh data from Asia showed mixed momentum. Japan’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0 in December, ending a five-month contraction as new orders fell more slowly and output stabilised. Employment improved, though input costs surged at the fastest pace since April, partly reflecting yen weakness. China’s services PMI eased to 52.0, marking the fourth straight monthly slowdown, with softer export demand and continued job cuts offset by improving business confidence into 2026.On the policy front, Governor Ueda said the Bank of Japan is likely to keep raising interest rates if growth and inflation evolve as forecast, citing confidence in a sustained wage–price cycle as Japan exits its deflationary era.Equities were active across the region. China’s Shanghai Composite Index pushed above 4,000, rising to its highest level since November, while Japanese stocks jumped nearly 3%, led by heavy industry and semiconductor names.FX markets reflected a firmer US dollar, with the euro, sterling, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and yen all weaker. Gold and silver surged on safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks intensified. Bitcoin also moved higher, supported by PwC signalling it will lean into crypto activity amid clearer US regulation under the GENIUS Act, reinforcing institutional confidence in digital assets. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) +2.75%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -0.08% Shanghai Composite +1.07%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.08% DXY is the USD index, higher here today: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:BOJ signals further rate hikes are likely this yearUeda confident wage–price cycle is taking holdPolicy rate already at a 30-year highSpring wage talks seen as key catalystYen weakness and inflation under close watchThe Bank of Japan is increasingly signalling that further interest-rate hikes are likely this year, as confidence builds that Japan has finally entered a durable phase in which wages and prices rise together. Governor Kazuo Ueda has reinforced that message in recent remarks, making clear that the central bank stands ready to continue normalising policy if economic and inflation trends evolve broadly in line with its projections.Earlier post:BOJ’s Ueda signals further rate hikes as wage–price cycle strengthensMore now (and recap):The BOJ raised its policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75% late last year, following a staged exit from ultra-loose policy that began with the end of negative rates in March 2024. Despite that move, real borrowing costs in Japan remain deeply negative, as consumer inflation has stayed above the BOJ’s 2% target for nearly four years. That backdrop has given policymakers room to continue tightening without, in their view, undermining the recovery.Ueda has repeatedly emphasised that Japan is moving closer to the long-sought “virtuous cycle” of moderate wage growth feeding through to sustained price increases. He said wages and prices are “highly likely” to rise together, and argued that adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation will help entrench long-term growth while ensuring inflation stabilises around target. The framing signals that further rate hikes are now seen as supportive rather than restrictive policy adjustments.Attention is turning to this year’s spring shunto wage negotiations, which are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the BOJ’s next steps. Sources familiar with the matter say the central bank could begin full-fledged internal discussions on another hike if pay settlements confirm that wage momentum remains solid. Strong outcomes would reinforce the BOJ’s confidence that inflation is being driven by domestic demand rather than temporary cost shocks.Markets are also watching the BOJ’s upcoming quarterly outlook report, due at its January policy meeting, for clues on how officials assess the inflationary impact of recent yen weakness. The softer currency has pushed up import prices and broader inflation, prompting some board members to argue for steady, incremental rate increases. Rising expectations of further tightening have already driven benchmark Japanese government bond yields to multi-decade highs and kept the yen under close scrutiny.Taken together, the signals suggest the BOJ is firmly on a gradual but persistent normalisation path, with Ueda positioning further hikes as conditional, data-dependent, and central to Japan’s transition away from decades of deflation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Bitcoin rose as institutional crypto sentiment improvedPwC signalled a strategic shift toward crypto servicesUS regulatory clarity seen as key catalystGENIUS Act boosted confidence in stablecoins and tokenisationBig-firm engagement reinforces long-term adoption narrativeBitcoin extended gains today as signs of deepening institutional engagement in digital assets reinforced confidence that the US regulatory backdrop has shifted decisively in favour of crypto adoption. Adding to the constructive tone, professional services giant PwC signalled a strategic pivot toward the sector, underscoring how regulatory clarity is reshaping risk perceptions across blue-chip institutions.PwC’s US senior partner and chief executive Paul Griggs said the firm will “lean in” to crypto-related work after years of caution, citing recent US legislative and regulatory developments, particularly around stablecoins, as a turning point. Griggs argued that the passage of comprehensive digital-asset rules has increased conviction in crypto as an investable and operational asset class, prompting PwC to expand its auditing, advisory and consulting services for crypto-native firms and traditional corporates alike.Central to the shift is the GENIUS Act, signed into law last year, which established the first clear federal framework for stablecoins pegged to assets such as the US dollar. The legislation set out custody, reserve and disclosure standards and opened the door for banks and large financial institutions to issue their own digital tokens. PwC executives said the move has removed years of regulatory ambiguity that previously kept major firms on the sidelines.The firm also highlighted growing interest among clients in using stablecoins to improve payment efficiency and liquidity management, while pointing to tokenisation as a structural trend that will continue to reshape capital markets. PwC’s decision to be “hyper-engaged” in the crypto ecosystem reflects a broader recalibration underway across professional services, banking and asset management.The regulatory shift has been reinforced by the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, including the appointment of digital-asset-friendly regulators and a move away from enforcement-led oversight toward formal rulemaking. Under President Donald Trump, the policy environment has become markedly more supportive, encouraging large institutions to reassess earlier concerns around compliance risk, custody and reputational exposure.For Bitcoin, the signal matters. Institutional validation from a Big Four firm like PwC strengthens the narrative that crypto is transitioning from a fringe asset into core financial infrastructure. As regulatory clarity draws in auditors, consultants and payment providers, investors increasingly view Bitcoin as a beneficiary of a maturing ecosystem, a dynamic that helped underpin price. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:China unveiled an early batch of 2026 infrastructure projects worth ~295 bn yuanFunds target transport, water, energy and security-related projectsSpending aims to front-load investment ahead of the 15th Five-Year PlanEcological protection and carbon reduction also receive fundingInfrastructure remains central to China’s growth-stabilisation strategyICYMI: China has moved to front-load infrastructure spending for 2026, unveiling an early batch of major national projects and a central budget investment plan worth roughly 295 billion yuan (about US$42 billion), in a bid to accelerate investment momentum and support economic growth amid ongoing headwinds.The country’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, said the early approvals are designed to speed up the deployment and use of funds while laying the groundwork for a smooth start to China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period, which runs from 2026 to 2030. Officials framed the move as an effort to ensure projects are ready to break ground early in the new planning cycle, rather than being delayed by administrative bottlenecks.According to the NDRC, around 220 billion yuan of the total allocation has been earmarked for 281 projects linked to major national strategies and security-related priorities. These include infrastructure such as underground pipeline networks and other projects viewed as critical to long-term economic resilience and national security. A further 75 billion yuan has been allocated to support 673 projects focused on areas such as ecological protection, energy efficiency and carbon-reduction initiatives.The early-batch approvals span a wide range of sectors. In transport, key projects include the construction of a new airport in Guangzhou and the Zhanjiang–Haikou cross-sea ferry and associated route works, aimed at improving regional connectivity. Water conservancy projects include large-scale water allocation schemes in Liaoning Province and the Nanguaping Reservoir in Yunnan, supporting both flood control and long-term resource management.Energy infrastructure also features prominently. Projects approved include an ultra-high-voltage alternating-current ring grid in Zhejiang Province and a hydropower station in Sichuan, underscoring Beijing’s continued emphasis on grid resilience, energy security and low-carbon generation.The move builds on China’s heavy infrastructure push in recent years. In 2025 alone, the central government allocated around 800 billion yuan to its so-called “Two Major” programmes, which focus on large national projects and key security-related capacity building. Together, the new approvals signal Beijing’s intention to keep public investment as a key stabiliser for the economy, even as private demand and the property sector remain under pressure. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Nomura expects China EV demand to cool further in 2026New subsidy policy signals tighter support for auto sectorMass-market models seen most vulnerable to demand slowdownEV makers likely to prioritise upgrades over price cutsTechnology leaders expected to outperformChina’s electric-vehicle market is likely to face further demand cooling this year as policy support is gradually tightened, according to Nomura, adding to pressure on manufacturers already grappling with slowing growth and intense competition.Nomura analysts said a newly released auto subsidy framework at the end of 2025 points to a less accommodative policy stance toward the sector, marking a shift away from the aggressive support that helped drive rapid EV adoption in recent years. The changes are expected to weigh most heavily on near-term domestic demand, particularly for mass-market and entry-level models that have relied heavily on price incentives to sustain sales momentum.As subsidies become more selective, Nomura expects Chinese EV makers to adjust strategy, pivoting away from widespread price cuts toward accelerated product upgrades and technology differentiation. The bank argued that further discounting would risk eroding margins without delivering meaningful volume gains in a more policy-constrained environment.The outlook underscores a broader transition in China’s auto sector, where growth is increasingly driven by innovation rather than price competition. Nomura expects manufacturers with strong capabilities in battery efficiency, software integration and advanced driver-assistance systems to outperform peers, even as overall market growth moderates.Policy tightening comes at a time when China’s EV market is already showing signs of saturation in major urban centres, while demand in lower-tier cities remains more sensitive to affordability and incentives. As a result, the bank sees downside risks to unit sales in the near term, especially for brands positioned primarily on cost rather than technology.Nomura maintained a cautious stance on the broader auto sector, noting that the shift in policy signals a desire by authorities to encourage higher-quality growth and reduce reliance on subsidies. While this may support the industry’s long-term health, it raises the bar for manufacturers in the short run.Taken together, the analysts said the combination of policy tightening, slowing demand growth and intense competition suggests a more challenging environment for China’s EV makers in 2026. Companies that can successfully execute technology upgrades and differentiate their product offerings are expected to emerge as relative winners, while those reliant on price-led strategies face mounting pressure. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

SummaryBOJ’s Ueda signalled readiness to continue raising ratesFurther tightening depends on growth and inflation tracking forecastsWage–price cycle seen as increasingly sustainableMonetary adjustment framed as supportive of long-term growthSignals reinforce Japan’s exit from deflation-era policyBank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced expectations of further policy normalisation, signalling that the central bank is prepared to continue raising interest rates provided economic and inflation conditions evolve broadly in line with its forecasts. His comments underline growing confidence within the BOJ that Japan is finally exiting its long deflationary era and transitioning toward a more durable, growth-driven model.Ueda said the BOJ expects to keep adjusting the degree of monetary support as the outlook for growth and prices improves. He stressed that gradual reductions in accommodation would help entrench sustainable economic expansion, rather than undermine it — a clear rebuttal to lingering concerns that tightening could choke off momentum.Crucially, Ueda said he expects Japan’s economy to maintain a virtuous cycle in which wages and prices rise moderately together. This wage–price dynamic has long been the BOJ’s missing link, and Ueda’s confidence suggests policymakers believe recent wage gains are no longer transitory but increasingly structural. Labour market tightness, demographic constraints and shifting corporate behaviour are now seen as reinforcing forces behind steady wage growth.The remarks align with comments earlier in the session from Finance Minister Taro Katayama, who described Japan as being at a “critical stage” in its shift away from deflation toward a growth-led economy. While Katayama focused on the broader economic transition, Ueda’s comments provided the clearest signal yet that monetary policy will continue to move in a less accommodative direction if conditions allow.Markets have been watching closely for confirmation that the BOJ’s December move marked the start of a sustained normalisation cycle rather than a one-off adjustment. Ueda’s language strongly suggests the former. By explicitly linking future rate hikes to forecast-consistent growth and inflation outcomes, the governor reaffirmed the BOJ’s data-dependent but forward-leaning stance.Taken together, the comments reinforce expectations that Japan’s ultra-loose monetary era is drawing to a close. While Ueda continues to emphasise gradualism and caution, his confidence in the wage–price cycle indicates the threshold for further tightening is lower than in previous years. For markets, the message is clear: as long as the economy behaves as the BOJ expects, policy rates are likely to keep moving higher, albeit at a measured pace. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Economists see inflation remaining sticky through 2026Growing risk of RBA rate hikes, possibly from FebruaryLate-2025 inflation rebound shifted policy expectationsHousing, services and labour-market tightness key driversForecasts now split between hikes, holds and cutsInflation is expected to remain uncomfortably persistent over the year ahead, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia will be forced back into rate hikes, according to a survey of leading economists conducted by the Australian Financial Review (gated). A growing minority of forecasters now expect the RBA to raise interest rates as early as its first policy meeting of the year in February. Seven of the 38 economists surveyed, including teams at major lenders such as Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Citi and National Australia Bank, see a near-term hike as increasingly likely, citing signs that inflation pressures have re-emerged rather than faded.While the RBA cut the cash rate three times last year, in February, May and August, taking it to 3.6%, economists now argue that those moves may have been premature. Inflation, which had appeared to be easing, unexpectedly picked up late in the year, with headline CPI rising to 3.8% in October and core inflation accelerating to 3.3%, well above the RBA’s 2–3% target band.RBA Governor Michele Bullock added to the shift in expectations in December, warning that further tightening could not be ruled out if price pressures proved difficult to contain. Since then, financial markets have swung sharply, moving from pricing rate cuts to partially pricing hikes. Traders are now assigning a meaningful probability to a February increase and are fully pricing a hike by mid-year.Economists point to a combination of structural and cyclical pressures keeping inflation elevated. Housing and services costs remain firm amid chronic undersupply, rapid population growth, rising wages and higher energy costs. At the same time, unemployment remains near historic lows, supported by strong public-sector hiring, particularly across healthcare and the NDIS, and widespread labour hoarding by firms reluctant to shed staff after years of skills shortages.While views remain divided, the balance of risks has clearly shifted. A growing number of economists now expect at least two rate hikes this year, with some warning that if inflation fails to moderate convincingly, even further tightening may be required into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:China services PMI remained in expansion but slowed further in DecemberNew orders grew at the weakest pace in six monthsExport services demand slipped back into contractionJob shedding continued for a fifth straight monthBusiness confidence rose to a nine-month highChina’s services sector continued to expand in December, but the pace of growth slowed to its weakest level in six months, reinforcing signs that the post-pandemic recovery remains uneven and fragile despite improving sentiment toward 2026.The latest PMI data showed the RatingDog China General Services PMI easing slightly to 52.0 from 52.1 in November. While the index remained comfortably above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, the reading marked a fourth consecutive monthly deceleration in growth and highlighted ongoing demand and employment challenges.Business activity and new orders both continued to rise, supported by promotional activity and improved domestic customer interest. However, the rate of expansion in sales slowed to its weakest since June, as new export business slipped back into contraction. Companies cited reduced tourist inflows, particularly from Japan, as a key drag on overseas demand, underscoring continued volatility in external services activity.Labour-market conditions remained a notable weak spot. Services firms cut staffing levels for a fifth straight month, with the pace of job shedding the sharpest since September. Respondents pointed to cost pressures and ongoing restructuring efforts as reasons for workforce reductions, affecting both full-time and part-time employment. Reduced capacity contributed to a modest accumulation of backlogs, even as overall demand growth softened.Pricing dynamics continued to reflect deflationary pressures at the consumer-facing level. Input costs rose for a tenth consecutive month, driven by higher raw material and labour expenses, with inflation running at one of its faster rates of 2025. Despite this, intense competition limited pricing power, prompting service providers to cut output charges for the second time in three months in an effort to support sales.At the broader economy level, the China Composite PMI edged higher to 51.3 in December (prior 51.2), marking a seventh straight month of expansion. The increase was supported by both services growth and a renewed rise in factory output, although total new business expanded at the slowest pace in six months due to weaker export demand. Job shedding persisted at the composite level, while overall selling prices continued to fall despite rising costs.Encouragingly, business confidence improved markedly. Expectations for future activity climbed to a nine-month high, with firms increasingly optimistic that stronger market conditions, expansion plans, and policy momentum will support growth in 2026. Even so, ongoing employment contraction and external demand uncertainty remain key constraints on the near-term outlook. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ICYMI:US attacks Venezuela, captures President MaduroHappy New Year, especially to Venezuelans! Monday early FX rates guideVenezuela - Goldman sees 2026 Brent at $56 & WTI at $52, flags longer-term downside risksAnd Trump later spoke:Trump claims control of Venezuela, warns Colombia and Mexico could be next-Gold and silver pushed sharply higher today as a cluster of macro, geopolitical and positioning forces aligned in favour of precious metals, reinforcing the broader bullish narrative that has been building into the new year. None of this is new (well, Venezuela is, but we've covered it extensively already). Markets continue to reassess the trajectory of US monetary policy. While the Federal Reserve continues to signal caution on the timing of further rate cuts, investors remain priced for easing later this year. That expectation, combined with softer inflation momentum and signs of labour-market cooling, has kept pressure on real yields, a key tailwind for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.At the same time, geopolitical risk has escalated materially, providing a classic safe-haven bid. The US intervention in Venezuela, combined with President Trump’s increasingly confrontational rhetoric toward Colombia and Mexico, has raised concerns about regional instability in Latin America. These developments have come on top of already elevated global tensions, encouraging portfolio hedging and defensive positioning in precious metals.Central-bank demand remains another powerful structural support, particularly for gold. Ongoing diversification away from the US dollar by several reserve managers continues to underpin prices, reinforcing gold’s role as a neutral reserve asset at a time when geopolitical fragmentation and sanctions risk remain high.Silver, meanwhile, has been outperforming on a dual demand narrative. Alongside its safe-haven appeal, silver is benefiting from expectations of resilient industrial demand, particularly linked to electrification, solar energy and advanced manufacturing. As growth fears ease slightly and the outlook stabilises, silver tends to gain leverage to both macro reflation and risk hedging — a dynamic clearly on display today.Finally, technical and positioning factors amplified the move. Thin liquidity early in the year, combined with momentum-based buying and short-covering after recent consolidations, helped accelerate gains once key resistance levels were breached.Taken together, the rally reflects a market that is increasingly comfortable holding precious metals as both a hedge against geopolitical shock and a medium-term play on easier financial conditions, weaker real yields and structural demand growth, conditions that remain firmly in place. ---The gold chart above is the appetizer, silver looks like the mains: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.The previous close was 6.9879.Today's mid-rate at 7.0230 is the strongest for the onshore yuan since 30 September 2024. People's Bank of China injects 13.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operations, rate remains 1.4%.The daily fixing of this mid-rate is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A higher-than-expected USD/CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against CNY appreciation pressure, like today. In recent months, the People’s Bank of China has taken deliberate steps to moderate the speed of appreciation in the onshore yuan, signalling a preference for stability over sharp currency gains. Rather than targeting a specific level, policymakers appear focused on preventing an overly rapid rise in CNY that could disrupt trade, capital flows and domestic financial conditions. Yesterday USD/CNY fell below 7.0 for the first time since May 2023. The PBoC is slowing the appreciation of the yuan, but hasn't stopped it.---ICYMI from last week, piecemeal stimulus steps continue from China:China eases property taxes but avoids bold housing stimulus (property downturn drags on)China is extending a value-added tax (VAT) exemption on certain residential property sales, adding another incremental policy measure aimed at stabilising its long-running real estate downturn. While the move lowers transaction costs for homeowners, it underscores Beijing’s preference for targeted relief rather than more forceful intervention.China boosts consumer trade-in subsidies, expands scheme to digital products in 2026China is stepping up efforts to revive household spending, allocating fresh funding from ultra-long special treasury bonds to expand its consumer trade-in subsidy scheme. The programme, first launched in 2024, will be broadened in 2026 to include digital and smart products, as policymakers look to counter weak growth momentum and rebalance the economy toward consumption. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Suymmary:Trump reaffirmed US control over post-Maduro VenezuelaUS says it is working with newly sworn-in leaders in CaracasWashington will not invest in Venezuela, despite oil company interestTrump floated the idea of an operation in ColombiaMexico also warned, with cartel power cited as justificationUS President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric across Latin America, reinforcing Washington’s assertion of control over post-Maduro Venezuela while openly signalling that Colombia and Mexico could also face US action as part of a widening campaign against criminal networks and regional instability.Trump reiterated that the United States is now effectively “in charge” of Venezuela following the weekend’s operation that removed former president Nicolás Maduro. US attacks Venezuela, captures President MaduroHappy New Year, especially to Venezuelans! Monday early FX rates guideVenezuela - Goldman sees 2026 Brent at $56 & WTI at $52, flags longer-term downside risksHe said US authorities are working with officials who were recently sworn in as part of a transitional arrangement, framing the intervention as an ongoing governance and security effort rather than a one-off military action. While Trump stressed that Washington will not invest public funds into rebuilding Venezuela, he acknowledged strong interest from private-sector energy companies, saying oil firms are eager to re-enter the country despite years of production decline and sanctions.The president’s remarks went further, however, by broadening the scope of US pressure beyond Venezuela. Asked about the possibility of an operation in Colombia, Trump said the idea “sounds good” to him, describing Colombia as “very sick” and blaming its condition on current leadership. He added pointedly that the situation would not persist for long, language widely interpreted as a warning that Colombia could face US action if Washington deems criminal or insurgent activity to be inadequately addressed.Trump also sharpened his tone toward Mexico, saying the United States “has to do something” and repeatedly criticising the strength of drug cartels operating there. He said he has offered on multiple occasions to send US troops to assist Mexico, claiming he raises the proposal every time he speaks with President Claudia Sheinbaum. According to Trump, Mexico must “get its act together,” arguing that cartel power represents a direct threat to US security.While no formal announcements were made regarding military action in Colombia or Mexico, the remarks mark a significant escalation in regional rhetoric following the Venezuela intervention. The combination of governance claims in Caracas and explicit warnings to neighbouring states suggests Washington is seeking to deter resistance while signalling a willingness to expand pressure across the region.For markets, the comments add a fresh layer of geopolitical risk across Latin America, with potential implications for energy investment, emerging-market FX volatility and regional risk premia. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Japan’s manufacturing PMI returned to neutral territory in DecemberNew orders fell at the slowest pace in 19 monthsOutput stabilised and employment growth accelerated modestlyInput prices rose at the fastest rate since AprilFirms remained cautiously optimistic heading into 2026Japan’s manufacturing sector showed clear signs of stabilisation at the end of 2025, with business conditions improving to their strongest level in more than a year, according to the latest S&P Global survey data. While demand remained subdued overall, the pace of decline in new orders slowed sharply, production stabilised, and employment continued to expand, signalling tentative momentum heading into 2026.The headline Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0 in December from 48.7 in November, marking the first reading at the neutral threshold in five months and ending a prolonged period of deterioration. The improvement was driven primarily by a much slower contraction in new business, which fell at its weakest pace in 19 months. Some manufacturers reported stronger-than-expected sales linked to new projects and improved customer spending.Output volumes were broadly steady, with production declining only marginally and at the slowest pace seen during the recent six-month downturn. Purchasing activity also fell at a reduced and only marginal rate, while inventory reductions continued as firms adjusted to muted demand. Stocks of finished goods declined at one of the fastest rates seen since 2020, reflecting cautious inventory management.Employment trends provided a further source of support. Manufacturers added staff for a fourth consecutive month, with job creation accelerating slightly as firms positioned for a potential recovery in demand. This helped reduce outstanding workloads, although the pace of backlog clearance eased to its slowest level in 18 months, suggesting capacity pressures are beginning to stabilise.Price dynamics, however, emerged as a key area of concern. Input costs rose at their fastest pace since April, driven by higher raw material prices, rising labour costs, and the impact of a weak yen on imported inputs. Delivery times continued to lengthen due to material shortages and shipping delays, though the deterioration in supplier performance remained modest. Faced with rising costs, firms passed on expenses to customers, lifting output prices at a solid pace in December.Business confidence remained positive despite slipping from November’s recent high. Optimism about the year-ahead outlook stayed above the long-run average, with firms expecting new product launches and improved demand — particularly across autos and semiconductors — to lift production in 2026. That said, manufacturers continued to flag risks from sluggish global growth, demographic pressures, and persistent cost inflation.---USD/JPY update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.