Market Insights Podcast (11/12/2025): In today's episode, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart reflect on a decision to cut rates by the Federal Reserve and forward guidance. Otherwise, we touch base on the upside currently on display in silver pricing, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss franc. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices have fallen from a post FOMC high of $4250/oz to lows around $4206/oz in early US trade. Market participants are assessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook after the latest interest rate cut.Mixed FOMC Keeps Markets Guessing On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) carried out another interest rate cut of 25 bps, which put the new target range for the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75%, exactly as expected.The decision, however, was not unanimous, passing with a 9-3 vote; one member wanted a larger cut of 50 bps, while two others wanted to keep the rates unchanged. Despite the cut, the price of gold did not rise much because the Fed did not offer a strong or clear outlook for future rate decisions.As discussed in the FOMC Preview article this week, the dot plot and forward guidance were always likely to hold more importance at the meeting. This certainly proved true looking at the reaction of the precious metal since.Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY) Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeated that the central bank is "well-positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves." These comments confirmed that the Fed is taking a "wait-and-see" approach after cutting rates three times this year (a total of 75 basis points).Nevertheless, since policymakers still disagree on whether more rate cuts will be needed in 2026, market participants are unsure about the future direction of policy, which is keeping the price of gold stuck in the same trading range it has been in for over a week.Market expectations however, have not changed much. Looking at the latest data from LSEG and markets are still pricing in around 57 bps of rate cuts through December 2026.Implied Rates for Federal Reserve zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Ahead of the meeting markets were pricing in around 76 bps of cuts (including yesterday). This shows that there hasn't been much change and this could explain Gold's malaise today.FOMC Impact on the US Dollar and Outlook The FOMC meeting yesterday was likely the most significant event that could positively impact the markets before the end of the year.Since that event has now passed, the US dollar might start to experience its typical seasonal weakness as the year concludes. This could cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to gradually fall toward the 98.00 level and potentially lower.Looking ahead at events that could spark some volatility in the US Dollar in the days and weeks before the January Fed meeting.There is a large amount of new economic data scheduled for release. However, Fed Chair Powell cautioned that this data might be misleading or inaccurate because of technical problems caused by the government shutdown.Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming November jobs report, which is due next Tuesday. Additionally, there are several other rate meetings scheduled by major central banks over the next ten days. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Geopolitical Risk Another factor to keep in mind heading into the year-end is the ongoing US-Venezuela dynamic. Any escalations or fall of government could add to safe haven demand and thus aid Gold in its bullish rally.This may prove to be a saving grace for those eyeing $4300/oz handle for the precious metal. Without such a catalyst, i am not sure Gold can sustain its current bullish momentum in the last three weeks of December. This could leave the precious metal in for a correction ahead of 2026.Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is decent for bullish continuation.The key is the most recent high near the key 4250 handle which has served as resistance before as well on December 5.A four-hour candle close above this level will be needed if bulls are to seize the initiative.The period-14 RSI remains above 50 which is a sign of bullish momentum.A move above 4250 brings 4259 and 4275 into focus.A pullback from here brings the 50-day MA into focus at 4209 before the 4190 and 100-day MA at 4166 into focus.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 11, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar took a hit following yesterday's Fed decision, driven by mechanical flows typical after a rate cut.Given the rally to new cycle highs over the past two months, current outflows aren't surprising—benefiting not just the majors, but especially exotic currencies. Prior to the meeting, the Dollar had held relatively strong despite a dovish Fed repricing, ranging near its recent highs supported by elevated yields following Williams' comments.However, despite the Dot Plot projecting only ~2 cuts for 2026 and Chair Powell suggesting the US is entering the "high end of the neutral rate range," the Dollar is sliding back to mid-October levels. zoom_out_map US Dollar Performance against Majors since the beginning of the Week – Source: TradingView The cut itself was neither explicitly dovish nor hawkish; communications were solid. If you missed Powell's speech (great recap right here), he placed extra emphasis on inflation. Consequently, as noted yesterday, future inflation data may carry even more weight than the NFP (which is projected to ease gradually over the next year).The Fed has been driving blind with limited inflation reports since September due to the government shutdown, making upcoming prints critical for markets. November NFP is scheduled for December 16, followed by CPI on Dec 18.Let's dive into the Dollar Index (DXY) charts to spot how much deeper the Dollar can correct given this shift in fundamentals. Read More:Markets Today: SNB Hold Rates, SoftBank Falls 7.7%, Gold Slips Post FOMC. DAX Holds Above Psychological 24000 HandleNasdaq 100: Post-FOMC gains wiped out, but technicals are still bullishMarkets higher after the Fed Cut, but Concerns Remain – North American session Market Wrap for December 10Dollar Index (DXY) Multi-timeframe OutlookDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar is falling harshly after trying to hold its elevated range, nothing too surprising here – Yesterday's move was based from its 200-Day Moving Average acting as resistance and now breaking below its key Pivot Area rendering the DXY bearish short-term.Looking back even further, the US Dollar is holding a long-term rangebound trajectory since mid-2025 between 97.00 to 100.00 – Makes sense when looking at its first-half harsh fall (-12% since January).On the bigger picture, cuts have been expected for a long-time in the US so yesterday did not surprise Macro traders too much. Still, with the Daily RSI going towards the bearish territory and momentum getting strong, the fall should continue at least towards the 98.00 Support area, allowing other majors to appreciate.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Keep a close eye on the Dollar Bear Channel in Intraday timeframes which should guide short-term flows.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highs99.80 mini-resistance98.50 to 98.80 Pivot ZoneSupport Levels98.25 Lower bound of 4H Channel98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips) Next support97.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Watch to the reactions as the Dollar reaches the lower bound of the Channel between 98.20 to 98.30 and spot how other assets correlate.There has been profit-taking flows overnight in Equities so keep an eye on this and flows in other FX currencies throughout the session.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Struggles, Ends the Day Down 0.9% Most Read: The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% – Market ReactionsThe Nikkei finished lower on Thursday, primarily because of a large drop in SoftBank Group shares. SoftBank's decline mirrored the steep fall of the US tech giant Oracle, which disappointed investors by predicting sales and profit below what Wall Street analysts expected.Although the Nikkei briefly rose by 0.5% earlier in the day, it closed down 0.9% at 50148.82. The broader Topix index also fell by 0.94% after opening at a record high.SoftBank Group was the biggest drag, plummeting 7.69%. Other Japanese technology companies also lost ground, including Tokyo Electron (down 1.57%), Shin-Etsu Chemical (down 3.94%), and the robot maker Fanuc (down 2.19%).Even bank stocks, such as Mizuho Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, gave up their initial gains and finished lower.Swiss National Bank Hold Rates at 0% The Swiss National Bank (SNB) concluded its final meeting of the year by keeping its key interest rate at zero, and it will continue to charge a small fee ($0.25$ percentage point) on bank deposits that exceed a certain limit.The bank also stated it is prepared to step into the foreign exchange markets if necessary. Inflation in Switzerland is currently very low, falling to 0.0% in November (from 0.2% in August), mainly because of cheaper hotel stays, rent, and clothing.Looking ahead, the SNB predicts inflation will remain low, gradually increasing to 0.2% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027. Globally, economic growth was better than expected in the third quarter of 2024 despite trade conflicts, though risks from US tariffs and uncertain trade policies remain.Within Switzerland, the economy actually shrank in the third quarter, largely due to a decrease in pharmaceutical exports to the US after an earlier surge, but other sectors like manufacturing and services saw minor improvements.The SNB expects the country's economy to grow by just under 1.5% in 2025, slowing to about 1% in 2026, which may lead to a slight rise in unemployment as the economy cools down.European Session - European Shares Edge Lower, Delivery Hero Down 5% European stock markets were relatively quiet on Thursday, seeing a small dip overall. The main reason for the decline was the poor forecast from the American cloud company Oracle, which caused technology stocks to fall. This negative news overshadowed the relief felt after the US Federal Reserve made comments that were less aggressive about future interest rate hikes than investors had anticipated.The general European STOXX 600 index, along with major markets like London and France, was down by about 0.1% to 0.3%. The technology sector specifically dropped about 0.9%, with the German software company SAP falling 2.5% because Oracle's disappointing sales and profit predictions, combined with increased spending plans, brought back worries about the high valuations and returns on investments in artificial intelligence.Although the Federal Reserve indicated that it might not cut interest rates immediately until the job market stabilizes, which was a positive signal for investors, it wasn't enough to counteract the tech sector's decline.In other company news, Delivery Hero shares dropped 5% after a downgrade from Citigroup, while Drax in London rose 2.2% after predicting higher-than-expected yearly profits, and RS Group was the top performer on the STOXX 600, gaining 3% after an analyst upgrade.On the FX front, the US dollar received some support on Thursday because there was a general avoidance of risk across the markets.However, it couldn't fully recover the ground it lost the previous day against other major currencies like the euro, yen, and sterling, mainly because the Federal Reserve's recent announcement was not as aggressive as some investors had anticipated.The euro remained stable at 1.1704 (a two-month high) after a significant gain on Wednesday, and the British pound held steady at 1.13374 following a similar rise. The dollar also continued to weaken against the Japanese yen, dipping 0.14% to 155.8 yen.Meanwhile, the Swiss franc reached its strongest level against the dollar in nearly a month, trading at 0.7992 per dollar.The Australian dollar suffered from the same risk-aversion trend, falling 0.5% to 0.6644. Reflecting the broad drop in risk appetite,Bitcoin briefly fell below the 90,000 mark, and Ether dropped more than 4% to 3,200..Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices declined on Thursday as investors redirected their attention toward two main events: the ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the potential consequences of the US seizing an oil tanker that had been sanctioned off the Venezuelan coast.These factors led to a decrease in prices. Specifically, Brent crude futures dropped by 81 cents, or 1.3%, settling at 61.40/barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude also fell by 78 cents, or 1.3%, to 57.68/barrel.Gold prices dropped slightly on Thursday, moving away from a high point reached earlier in the week. This dip occurred because the US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was not unanimously supported, leaving investors uncertain about how quickly the central bank will continue to lower rates next year.However, in contrast, silver hit a new record high. Specifically, spot gold fell 0.4% to 4,210.88/oz, though it had briefly reached its highest price since December 5th earlier in the trading session.Meanwhile, US gold futures for February delivery saw a small increase of 0.3% to 4,238.10/oz.Read More:Nasdaq 100: Post-FOMC gains wiped out, but technicals are still bullishUSD/JPY: 5-day JPY weakness has reached an inflection point for potential reversal as FOMC loomsWill Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet from a data perspective. There are Turkish interest rates and the OPEC monthly report which will be released and could stoke some volatility.The US session will be busier though with Canadian and US trade balance data, Initial jobless claims and the NVIDIA senate bill coming into focus.None of the above are expected to be massive market moving events and attention will now turn to inputs from the November jobs data next Tuesday.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yesterday was likely the most significant event that could positively impact the markets before the end of the year. Since that event has now passed, the US dollar might start to experience its typical seasonal weakness as the year concludes. This could cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to gradually fall toward the 98.00 level. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX Index has held above the key confluence level at 24000 for the last four trading days.This could be seen as both positive and potentially slightly concerning. The failure to push higher means bulls are hesitant to push on and a lot of this is likely down to the FOMC meeting.The post FOMC reaction has been rather tentative and not had a major impact on the DAX for now.The period-14 RSI is eyeing a retest of the neutral 50 level. A bounce off this level could give bulls some optimism as it does hint that bullish momentum remains intact for now.Immediate resistance rests at 24200 before the swing high just above the 24400 handle comes into focus.Immediate support rests at 24000 before the swing high at 23880 and the 20-day MA at 23667 come into focus.DAX Index Index Daily Chart, December 11, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Post-FOMC optimism faded fast, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures reversing sharply on renewed US–China tensions and concerns over AI-related export violations tied to DeepSeek.Sentiment worsened after Oracle’s 11.5% after-hours plunge, as weak revenue reignited worries over stretched AI valuations and dragged index futures lower.Despite the pullback, Nasdaq 100 technicals remain constructive, with improving market breadth and key supports holding, keeping the medium-term bullish reversal bias intact. The post-FOMC rally quickly fizzled in today’s Asia session, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures falling -0.8% and -1.1%, effectively wiping out Wednesday’s gains.The pullback appears driven by renewed US-China geopolitical tension after reports that Chinese AI firm DeepSeek obtained smuggled Nvidia Blackwell chips, hardware banned for export to China, to build its next-generation model.Sentiment was further hit by an 11.5% plunge in Oracle’s after-hours trading following weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue, reigniting concerns over stretched AI valuations and feeding into index futures weakness.Despite the current intraday weak sentiment in the US futures, technicals are not suggesting the potential start of a medium-term downtrend phase for the Nasdaq 100.Let’s dive deeper into several technical elements that are still constructively bullish.Nasdaq 100 market breadth has improved in the past three weeks zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above 20-day & 50-day moving averages as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Based on the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks that are trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages, there has been a significant improvement since 17 November 2025, after the three-week down move seen in the Nasdaq 100 from its current all-time high in late October 2025, triggered by AI bubble fears and weakness in the share price of Nvidia ex-post earnings.The share of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their 20-day moving average has surged to 65%, up sharply from 23% on 17 November 2025.Similarly, the proportion trading above the 50-day moving average has risen to 56%, from 28% on 17 November 2025, though at a more gradual pace (see Fig. 1).Peferred trend bias (1-3 weeks) – Bullish reversal remains intact zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 11 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The potential bullish reversal that has taken form on the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) since the 21 November 2025 low of 23,840 remains intact.Medium-term pivotal support rests on 25,165 to maintain the bullish bias, and a clearance above 25,745 potential upside trigger level, is likely to increase the odds of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence to retest the current all-time high at 26,288 before the next medium-term resistance comes in at 26,480/26,545 (Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).Key elements Price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index continue to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 26 November 2025.The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has pulled back and just staged a rebound right above a key ascending support, which suggests a potential medium-term bullish momentum revival for the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks) Failure to hold at the 25,165 key medium-term pivotal support invalidates the bullish scenario to kick-start a deeper corrective decline on the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index to retest the next medium-term supports at 24,540 and 24,000 (critical swing low areas of 10 October 2025 and 21 November 2025). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 10The Fed delivered a "neutral" 25 bps cut to 3.50%-3.75%, sending markets higher.Bonds, stocks, and metals all rallied, while the US Dollar took a significant hit.Small-cap stocks and industrials outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+1.50%) and the Dow Jones (+1.10%) leading the way—a natural flow, as rate cuts tend to support these sectors the most.Bitcoin, on the other hand, failed to hold its highs unlike other asset classes.Still, Ethereum and some altcoins maintained some strength, the broader crypto market still seems confused.Tomorrow's close will be essential for all asset classes;Despite the current rally, major indices remain a few percentage points away from their relative highs.Optimism will need to persist. Watch the Dollar closely, as its inverse correlation is currently guiding the rally. zoom_out_map Market Outlook 30M Charts for S&P 500, Oil, 10-Year Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin and the USD – Source: TradingView It remains to be seen if this momentum can continue given the less optimistic tone regarding future cuts: The dot plot signaled only 1 to 2 additional cuts (excluding Fed’s Miran, whose dot remains a dovish outlier).Chair Powell strongly emphasized tariff-led inflation as the Fed's primary concern—and with good reason.Tariffs have been in place for six months, and their full impact may not yet be visible, especially with the Fed going in blind following the month-and-a-half-long BLS closure.Keep a close eye on all inflation data (CPI, PCE, and PPI) going forward. Read More:The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% – Market ReactionsBitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) levels for the FOMCTechnical Analysis of Google and Microsoft Stocks – AI Leaders Outlook part 2Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Except for Bitcoin which really sends concerns after its fakeout, all assets push higher after the Fed Cut.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 10 – Source: OANDA Labs Both the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve rate decisions pushed their currencies lower, profiting to the CHF and the GBP.The Greenback took a particularly huge hit, not only against the Majors but even more towards exotic currencies.The Swedish Krona, the South African Rand and Brazilian Real were some of the best performances there.Look at if this trend continues towards the rest of 2026 – This could have potential as Major currencies already performed quite strong in 2025.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session will turn the eyes towards Australia, which faces its most critical domestic report of the month.AUD Employment Change (19:30 ET): This is the high-tier data of the night, with consensus expecting a drop in jobs added to 20K (from 42.2K) and a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 4.4% (from 4.3%). A soft reading would heavily influence the RBA's future rate path, Tomorrow's session (Thursday) is less data-heavy, focusing on central bank commentary and a final look at the US labor market.The early morning features a high-impact speech from BoE Governor Bailey (04:50 A.M. ET), which will provide context on the UK's inflation fight.The North American Session will likely drive the final volatility of the US trading week:Initial Jobless Claims (08:30 A.M. ET): This weekly data provides the freshest read on the US labor market, with expectations set at 220K.Keep a close eye on the close tomorrow as traders digest the Fed Cut and Powell's speech. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies have traded up and down over the past week following a rough correction across the board. *By the way, the Bank of Canada Press Conference is currently ongoing for those interesting, you can access it right here – No Cut for the BoC, 2.25% rate unchanged*While key long-term support levels arrested the steep decline and dip-buyers stepped in, the market failed to hold its highs despite a strong session yesterday.This afternoon's event will be critical for all asset classes, including crypto. Here is why:FOMC events often trigger sharp swings between risk-on and risk-off sentiment. As risk assets, cryptocurrencies often correlate with equities. For example, during the 2023 hiking cycle, risk assets dumped lower, triggering massive selloffs in the crypto market.Rate-cutting cycles typically boost non-yielding assets like Gold and Bitcoin. On a straightforward basis, a cut should support higher prices, though the reaction will depend heavily on whether the Fed's guidance for 2026 is dovish.If today's (highly probable) rate cut fuels risk appetite, Bitcoin and its peers should rise. If sentiment becomes ecstatic, expect memecoins and altcoins to outperform; if the mood is positive but measured, look for market leaders like Bitcoin (BTC) , Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) to lead the charge.As a matter of fact, let's explore the intraday charts and levels for these three crypto leaders to prepare for the rate decision, coming up in about three hours. Read More:FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)US Curve outlook: Why US Treasury yields are surging before the FedMarkets Today: Chinese Inflation at 21-Month Highs, Silver Soars Above $61/oz as Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of the FEDBitcoin, Solana and Ethereum Technical AnalysisBitcoin 8H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin rallied a strong 14% since reaching its $80,563 lows on November 21, bringing back intermediate momentum into balance (from heavily bearish).Still, the chart doesn't point to immediate bullish domination – The RSI is going sideways. This arises particularly as sellers appeared at the highs of the bear channel, keep an eye on this one.The dip-buying was a technical one, with the Crypto Leader retest its long-term support levels as seen in our previous analysis.Things might change today howeverFOMC Scenarios:A daily close above $94,000 points to a continued break higher. If the rest of the Market follows suit, a new uptrend might be found. A yearly close above $100,000 confirms the return of a long-term bullish environment.Hanging close within the $88,000 to $92,000 maintains the current hesitant picture.Close below $88,000 however may relaunch the bearish trend which can be dangerous for the Market outlook.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels$88,000 to $92,000 major support turned Pivot (testingNovember lows $80,563$85,000 mini Support (+/- $500)Liberation Day Support $75,000 to $80,000Resistance Levelsmini-resistance around $94,000Swing highs from yesterday $94,657 and highs to break$98,000 to $100,000 Main ResistanceResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView The idea is the same for Ethereum, but the breakout has been even-more solid. Hence, traders may expect ETH outperformance if today's FOMC is bullish.In a bearish case, ETH and other altcoins should outperform.FOMC Scenarios:In a bullish session, a close above $3,400 continues the more bullish momentum found recently. Keep track of the upward trendline in this case.In a balanced FOMC session, prices should maintain between $3,000 to $3,300 indicating that traders will be looking to learn more – Rangebound action in this case.In a bearish session, ETH should close below $3,000 and relaunch the bearish prospects.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels$3,000 Psychological level and Pivot (+ 50 MA)$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (recent rebound)$2,620 Recent Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels$3,400 Tuesday highs$3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs$3,800 September lows$4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsSolana (SOL) 8H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) 8H Chart, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Solana has rebounded but still struggles to find upside momentum, holding its mid-October downwards channel.The third largest crypto maintains a rangebound price action between $125 to $145.FOMC Scenarios:Bullish case: Solana closes above $145 which would imply a return in the Crypto, and should increase odds of a channel breakout ($155 is the level to look)Neutral case: The crypto holds its ongoing range, not so bad considering how bearish the previous momentum was. It also holds the line for a future reboundBearish case: Solana closes at the lows of its range, which may trigger a further selloff.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support LevelsMain Support $125 to $130 (Range lows)$110 to $115 SupportWeekly lows $123Support 3: $100 to $105Resistance Levels$140 to $150 Major Pivot (Range Highs)Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170$180 to $190 ResistancePsychological level $200 to $205$253 Cycle highsSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AUD is leading the FX space on renewed RBA hawkishness, while the JPY remains the weakest major currency as BoJ signals flexibility on policy.USD/JPY’s recent five-day rally is losing steam, with momentum indicators and resistance confluence pointing to a potential minor bearish reversal.A break below 156.00 on the USD/JPY could open the way toward 155.35 and 154.40, while a move above 157.15 would negate the downside setup. In the FX market, a “K-shaped” performance has emerged with the AUD rallying and outperforming among the major currencies against the US dollar due to the hawkish monetary policy guidance from the Australian central bank, RBA. In today’s Asia session, AUD extended its gains by 0.1% after a 0.3% return seen on Tuesday, 9 December, towards a three-month high at 0.6650 (see Fig. 1). zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 5-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) At the end of the spectrum, the Japanese yen weakened for the third consecutive session against the greenback (USD/JPY rallied by 1% on a 5-day rolling basis) due to mixed messages from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda’s speech on Tuesday, 9 December.Ueda highlighted that the BoJ may ramp up government bond buying if long-term JGB yields rise rapidly, which appeared to be a signal that the BoJ is willing to tweak its existing policy after the BoJ ended its yield curve control programme in March 2024 that previously suppressed the rise in the 10-year JGB yield.Interestingly, technical analysis suggests that the recent 5-day rally of the USD/JPY from its 154.40 minor swing low printed on 5 December 2025 has started to lose upside momentum that may lead to a potential minor bearish reversal on the USD/JPY.Let’s unravel in greater detail.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Bearish with 156.00 as potential downside trigger zoom_out_map Fig. 2: USD/JPY major & medium-term trends as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 157.15 key short-term pivotal resistance on the USD/JPY, and a break below 156.00 key near-term support (also the 20-day moving average) may trigger a minor bearish reversal to retest the next intermediate supports at 155.35 and 154.40.A break and an hourly close below 154.40 may kickstart another minor downtrend sequence to expose 153.70 (also the 50-day moving average) next in the first step (see Fig. 3).Key elements Tuesday, 9 December 2025’s rally on the USD/JPY ex-post BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech has stalled at the pull-back resistance of a former medium-term ascending support from 29 October 2025 low, the minor swing high area of 24 November 2025, and close to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor downtrend from 20 November 2025 high to 5 December 2025 low, all confluence at the 157.15 level.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just staged a bearish breakdown below a key ascending support after it exited from the overbought region (above 70). These observations suggest that the recent short-term upside momentum of the USD/JPY has eased.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 157.15 invalidates the minor bearish reversal view for a further potential squeeze up for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 158.00/158.35. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Tentative trading Ahead of FOMC Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)Japan's main stock market index, the Topix, briefly hit an all-time record high early on Wednesday before losing momentum. The index ended the day with a small 0.1% gain, while the more selective Nikkei 225 index dropped slightly by 0.1%.Car manufacturers like Honda and Toyota performed well, helped by a weaker yen, which makes their exports cheaper abroad. Overall, more stocks rose than fell on the Nikkei index. The top performers included DOWA Holdings and the toilet maker TOTO, while the biggest losers were the drugmaker Shionogi and the chip supplier Lasertec.Meanwhile, the interest rates (yields) on short-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) climbed to a 17-year high. This rise in yields is a strong sign that investors are increasingly sure the Bank of Japan will raise its interest rates at its policy meeting next week.China Inflation Rate at 21-Month Highs China's annual inflation rate (the increase in consumer prices over a year) rose to 0.7% in November 2025, up from 0.2% the month before. This increase matched expectations and reached its highest point since February 2024.For the first time in ten months, food prices went up (0.2%), driven by higher prices for fresh vegetables and fruits, and a smaller decline in pork prices. Non-food prices also continued to rise (0.8%), helped by government programs encouraging consumers to trade in old items. Key areas seeing price increases included clothing, healthcare, and education.However, housing prices were flat, and transportation costs continued to fall. If you look at core inflation (which ignores volatile food and energy prices), it held steady at a strong 1.2%, its highest level in 20 months.On a monthly basis, however, consumer prices actually fell by 0.1%, missing forecasts for a gain and marking the first monthly decline in five months.European Session - Shares Slip Ahead of FOMC European stock markets declined slightly on Wednesday, with the main pan-European STOXX 600 index dropping 0.1%. This marks the fourth straight day of losses for the index.Investors are holding back from making large trades while they wait for the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates later today, and they are also looking closely at the latest company updates.Major markets in Germany and Spain also saw small dips. France's CAC 40 index dropped 0.1% after lawmakers narrowly passed the government's 2026 social security budget, which came at a high political cost. Financial and industrial stocks, which had been boosting the market recently, fell; specifically, insurance stocks dropped, pulled down by a 7% slide in Aegon's shares after its trading update.The main focus remains on the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates by a small amount (25 basis points). However, investors will be paying close attention to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about how the central bank will manage its monetary policy next year given the signs of a weakening US economy.In company news, Delivery Hero's stock jumped 6.1% after the firm told shareholders it is looking at ways to better manage its capital and considering strategic options.On the FX front, the Japanese yen appeared weak on Wednesday, having suffered a sudden drop overnight. The main reason for the yen's weakness is the large gap between Japan's very low interest rates and the higher rates in other countries, despite the expectation that the Bank of Japan will raise its rates next week.The yen was trading slightly stronger at 156.64 per dollar after dropping 0.6% toward the 157 level in the previous session for no clear reason. The yen also fell to a record low against the euro overnight and stayed near that weak level.Meanwhile, the US dollar was generally steady, and most other currencies saw only small movements as traders waited for the important US Federal Reserve policy decision later in the day. Investors are betting the Fed will cut interest rates at what is expected to be a very divided meeting.The dollar index was firm at 99.20 The euro and British pound were mostly unchanged, while the New Zealand dollar eased slightly.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices were stable on Wednesday after dropping by about 1% yesterday, as investors are focused on progress in the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and are also waiting for the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude both saw small gains of about 0.3%.Meanwhile, silver is having a record-breaking run, having hit the $60/oz mark for the first time ever on Tuesday and then rising above $61/oz overnight. This surge is due to a supply shortage and growing demand for the metal.In contrast, gold prices dipped slightly on Wednesday as investors prepared to hear comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later today, when the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates.Spot Gold continues to grind around the $4200/oz level.Read More:Getting ready for the FOMC – North American session Market Wrap for December 9Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Alert: Bitcoin Breaks Major Resistance - Next Stop $100,000?Will Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet today with a lack of high impact data releases. We will hear comments from both ECB and BoE policymakers which could stoke some volatility. ECB policymakers have adopted a rather hawkish tone of late with further comments highly anticipated.The US session will be where all focus rests today. First we will get the Bank of Canada rate decision as well as crude oil inventories data.Finally, the highly anticipated FOMC meeting comes into focus. There is a lot of uncertainty around what to expect especially when it comes to the Feds updated economic projections. I strongly believe that the economic projections and comments from Fed Chair Powell could move markets more than the rate decision itself. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX Index has held above the key confluence level at 24000 for the last three trading days.This could be seen as both positive and potentially slightly concerning. The failure to push higher means bulls are hesitant to push on and a lot of this is likely down to the FOMC meeting.However, if the FOMC meeting is positive for stocks, the knock on effect could help propel the DAX toward the all-time highs once more.The period-14 RSI is eyeing a retest of the neutral 50 level. A bounce off this level could give bulls some optimism as it does hint that bullish momentum remains intact for now.Immediate resistance rests at 24200 before the swing high just above the 24400 handle comes into focus.Immediate support rests at 24000 before the swing high at 23880 and the 20-day MA at 23667 come into focus.DAX Index Daily Chart, December 10, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 9Erratic flows across Markets yet again as the countdown to the FOMC decision goes on.While US Stock Markets were snoozers today, but risk-asset enjoyers did get a volatility dose: Cryptos offered quite a strong session, with Bitcoin coming shy of $95,000 and Ethereum touching the $3,300 level before retreating lower.The unambiguous winner of today's session, however, is easily Silver, which broke its fresh $59 record to mark an intraday All-time High at $60.83 in an aggressive late-session move.This price action is highly suggestive of a late session short squeeze, with some traders unfolding some awkward positions held too long ahead of the FOMC event – I have seen such moves before and have also been there myself.The next key technical test for the metal will be tomorrow's close: confirmation of a breakout relies on the metal closing tomorrow above $59.The fundamental backdrop remains anchored but restrictive.This morning’s JOLTS report delivered a beat which, while preserving the high odds for tomorrow’s rate cut (around 85%), has effectively taken some 2026 rate cuts.The Eastern-Europe conflict headlines also intensified: President Trump renewed his menaces to Ukraine in a Politico interview released today, questioning Zelenskyy's legitimacy due to postponed elections and asserting that Russia retains the "upper hand" in the conflict, while throwing shade at European leaders.There hasn't been much movement in the Euro but such words originally propulsed the Joint Currency to some extended-rallies earlier this year.For those who missed, the RBA delivered a hawkish pause yesterday evening, holding their rates steady at 3.60%.The central bank cited renewed upward pressures on inflation and did not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes in 2026, creating a stark divergence between US and Australian policy outlooks and sending AUD/USD to some 4-months highs.Tomorrow should bring back significant volatility after a calm pre-FOMC period.Still, traders will have to scramble to extract as much information as they can from the Powell speech at 14:30 tomorrow, as there will be nine more days (and seven sessions) until the emphatically essential NFP report on December 18th—the January NFP will release on January 9th as the BLS begins to recover its shutdown backlog. Read More:FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)US Curve outlook: Why US Treasury yields are surging before the FedWill Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Except for some spikes in Cryptos (particularly Altcoins) and Silver, other assets are patiently awaiting for the Fed to get moving.Very exciting. zoom_out_map Crypto Daily Performance, December 5, 2025 – Source: Finviz A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 9 – Source: OANDA Labs Dull movement throughout the open until AUD buyers and JPY sellers gave sense to the FX session.The Yen got wrecked particularly hard as further doubts on the Bank of Japan emerge as hawkish communication attempts fail to protect the Nippon currency.Check out our fresh FX reviews right here:The Yen Rout Continues: USD/JPY Surges to New Monthly Highs despite Key Rate decisionsAUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAA look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The overnight to tomorrow session is going to be a game-changer and most probably the most intense trading period of December.Starting tonight with the China CPI, traders will get to know more on if economists start to turn the page on Chinese deflation, which will have its own influence on AUD and NZD particularly, and same for Asian Stock Markets.But all eyes are turning on tomorrow's Banger session:Bank of England's Governor Bailey and ECB's Lagarde go back to back in the early morning at a Financial Times Conference. The subject of their discussions hasn't been announced yet.Later, the Bank of Canada will deliver a first Central Bank rate decision, widely expected to remain unchanged but also should provide interesting developments for the future path: 2026 hikes have started to price after last Friday's Canadian Employment numbers.The press conference at 10:30 A.M. will be closely followed.But all eyes will be on the FOMC rate Decision, a Market volatility classic.A 25 Bps cut is expected but the cut itself will be far from the most interesting event:Dot plots (14:00) will be releasing for 2026 and above all, Powell's speech (14:30) will be followed by traders as if it was a prophecy.CHECK OUT OUR FOMC PREVIEWS!This will be one of his 4 final FOMC appearances before he steps down (May 2026).NEC Director Hassett is still the favorite for the job.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This article is a complement to our previous pre-FOMC analysis which explores the Fed Decision, Dot Plot and different scenarios for the US Dollar:Discover: FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)We will now turn to a more technical look into the US curve, a 10-Year Bond chart to see what's going on behind the pricing for tomorrow's meeting, and provide a few more scenarios depending on the rate cut path.More particularly, with the 25 bps cut being a quasi-certainty, we will provide potential scenarios on if the cut is hawkish or dovish and a few potential reactions.A first move to signal in Markets, is the recent move higher in US treasuries across the curve.Mentioned many times across our analyses on MarketPulse, the speech from NY Fed's Williams, a very influential speaker, affected Markets on a large scale: zoom_out_map Asset Performance since Williams' Speech – Source: TradingView Counter-intuitively, the speech that re-introduced possibilities of lower rates (which you can find right here) led a huge rebound in Stock Markets and Metals, but similarly preceded a move between +15 bps to +20 bps in US treasuries.But why? zoom_out_map US 10-Year Bond with 10Y Yield underlay – December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Never forget the sell-the-news effect – At least for the bonds!The reasoning behind this move is a microcosm of the 2025 trend: A fear of an influenced Federal Reserve, which may fast-forward its rate-cut cycle at the cost of their data-dependency–or even their independence!As explained in our recent pre-FOMC analysis, the 25-bps move could be one done with a blind eye – most of the data released throughout the past month is data dating back to September, such as the PPI and Retail Sales data (which corroborated a slowdown).However, at the same time, more actual data also sent mixed signals, particularly regarding Labor – Weekly Jobless Claims came in at the lowest level since September 2022 just a week ago, while ADP Private Payrolls showed a regressing picture.Until now, the Fed had been remarkably resilient about taking preemptive decisions without a clear consensus on why to hike or cut – and this shift in perspective also comes amid still uncertain tariff-led inflation outlooks. zoom_out_map The US Curve: Mid-October vs Today – A 15 to 25 bps increase throughout all durations The Greenback falling at the same time as yields rising indicates an increased premium for holding US debt.Many words to describe the same phenomenon: The Debasement Trade.If you haven't heard about this term, you can find a stellar definition right here. To summarize, it's a financial trend shifting away from fiat currencies and governmental assets to focus on finite assets, such as Stocks, Cryptocurrencies, and Metals.Coming back to the curve picture from above, the front-end flattened quite aggressively, implying Rates staying put for a longer-while after this cut. zoom_out_map Mid-2026 Pricing: 50% odds of a 3% Neutral Rate – Source: TradingView This takes us to our expectations for tomorrow:Scenarios and probabilities:A hawkish cut (70% chance) This is the base case for tomorrow's decision (in my opinion).Powell should indicate a risk-management move after the streak of negative private payrolls data combined with a not-aggravating inflationary picture.To balance out these words, expect the Fed Chair to point out to a blinded Fed due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics closure and delayed data, particularly for NFP.Reactions in Major assets Upcoming rate cut probabilities decrease to price a pause in the waiting for more dataThe US dollar maintains its ongoing consolidation range (between 99.00 to 100.00 on the Dollar Index)Stock Indexes correct due to their ecstatic post-Williams repricingShort-end yields shoot higher while long-end yields stay put (Harsh bear flattening)Metals correct slightlyA dovish cut (10% chance) Jerome Powell folds and makes extensive mentions on the private labor market while reducing mentions of inflation.Reactions in Major assets Rate cuts get front-loaded (moved forward) aggressively but leaves VERY volatile future pricingsThe US Dollar falls off a cliff and goes to retest the yearly lowsStock Indexes flash to new all-time highs but may find struggles as Fed Independence doubts rage backShort-end yields shoot lower while long-end yields shoot higher (Strong steepening)Metals explode to new all-time highs and keep running higherA dovish pause (20%) The Fed decides to hold their breath due to a lack of data but keep a strong option on rate cuts in the short-term.This one is the most tricky.Most participants expect a cut, but this would quickly shift the current pricing:Reactions in Major assets 2026 Rate cuts get front-loaded on a smaller extentThe US Dollar rallies to hold above/close to the 100.00 level.Stock Indexes see VERY volatile swings and form a large rangeThe curve stays put, long-term yields go lower (small Bull flattening)Metals correct slightlyThis article wasn't the most common, but I hope it will be instructive.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese Yen rout shows no signs of abating, pushing the USD/JPY pair to yet another set of monthly highs despite tomorrow’s highly anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve, combined with expectations of another hike in Japan.Rising expectations for another rate hike in JapanThe decisive driver behind the Yen's continued weakness is the market's profound distrust of the Japanese monetary and fiscal coordination. zoom_out_map Japanese Yen against other major currencies – Generated with the help of Gemini On one side, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government has pushed through gigantic stimulus with a stance the market deems fiscally reckless, leading to the original flash higher in USD/JPY – Reassuring words from the PM haven't had the best reception.On the other side, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is desperately trying to signal a normalization shift.In recent remarks, Ueda emphasized that the "certainty of the BoJ’s outlook materializing is increasing gradually," and that current policy remains "accommodative," even after previous minor adjustments.Still, Traders deem the divergence in both policies not being sustainable and leading to a confidence extinction.Even if the Bank of Japan hikes, how much can they really hike?The Yen's safety will be contingent on not just a hike, but a more stable and decisive tightening cycle.Also, keep a close eye on reactions to the Dollar tomorrow while Powell speaks! Read More:Will Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Markets Today: RBA Rate Hold, Nikkei Recovers, FTSE 100 Struggles as Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of FOMCAUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAUSD/JPY Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY Daily Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView What was thought to have been a top in the currency pair now looks like a healthy pullback.As the daily RSI went from overbought to neutral, bulls resurfaced strongly and are making a statement in the price action and are fully back in control.The only way for bears to have a case here would be if a mean reversion move towards the close would bring the action back within the 156.00 to 156.750 Main resistance.But things are not looking in this direction right now.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/JPY 4H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Look at how clean the September Channel got respected on the recent rebound.USD/JPY technical levels of interest:Support Levels:155.00 Pivot ZoneRecent Lows 154.40154.00 Psychological Support50-Day MA 153.00150.00 Psychological Support and 50-Week MA146.00 August Range Main SupportResistance Levels:156.00 to 156.750 Main resistance (breaking)157.90 to 158.90 Yearly Resistance157.895 Recent Highs2025 Highs and April 2024 peaks 158.80 to 160.001990 and July 2024 Peak 161.00 to 162.001H Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY 1H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current move does not look like it's about to stop.A mini-resistance is coming up right above 157.00 and will be one of the two final points for sellers to appear again.The other one naturally being 157.895, the recent highs.Momentum is very overbought which may prompt some stoppage, but with buyers disregarding tomorrow's number, I wouldn't be surprised to see continuation here.A big part of the longer-run outlook for the pair will be dependent on what happens at tomorrow's FOMC event.The second most important event will be the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 19.Don't just watch the rate decision, keep a close eye on communications from the Central Banks!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Metals have completed yet another round of high-pace rally to new highs since the US government reopened and NY Fed’s Williams delivered his extra-dovish comments.After hawkish fears failed to materialize into real corrections in the bullions, traders were eager to push for such squeezes yet again.But with Gold failing to breach new all-time highs on this run, the attention is caught up in industrial metals, which have outperformed all precious peers (palladium, platinum, and gold). zoom_out_map Metal Performance since Enc-October 2025. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current leaders of the surge are Copper and Silver, which are heavily benefiting from their extreme necessity in the AI components creation and electrification megatrends.Silver, in particular, has seen its price nearly double over the last twelve months and has recently surged to a record settlement of $59.14 an ounce.The yellow metal is currently stuck in a narrow range and Silver keeps testing its highs. Both are awaiting tomorrow afternoon's FOMC decision before making their next definitive move. Gold’s direction will inevitably drag other metals with it.Today's analysis will focus on a Silver intraday chart and take a look at Gold to see if the upcoming FOMC (particularly communications during the speech) has the potential to push prices higher, what could happen depending on hawkish and dovish tones, and what technical targets are now in play. Read More:Markets Today: RBA Rate Hold, Nikkei Recovers, FTSE 100 Struggles as Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of FOMCAUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAApple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) Technical Analysis – AI Leaders Outlook Part 3Silver (XAG/USD) 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 8H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Prospects for Silver were scary after last month's double-top formation.But as seen throughout the year, when metals are racing higher while the US dollar heads lower, a general sign of currency balancing and risk-management perspectives from global Central Banks encourages the spread of further commodity demand.Reaching some new highs last Monday, Silver has maintained its high-range consolidation throughout the entire week (between $56.60 to $58.50).Ongoing sideways action at the highs allows overbought RSI levels to retreat while conserving higher chances of an upside breakout. Still, to keep an eye on the fundamental background, watch for these elements:If Powell's speech (starting at 14:30 E.T. tomorrow) makes mentions of a stressed labor market picture and/or if he makes allusions to more work to be done on rates, new all-time highs can easily be expected – Silver could spike between $60–$62.On the other hand, mentions of temporary readjustments in data, one-time reductions in labor, a "cut-and-see" approach, or anything of the sort will hurt metal demand quite harshly – a test of the previous all-time highs of $54 to $55 would make sense. If hawkish repricings see further strength, low $50s could also be visited.Keep an eye on 2026 cuts: The more cuts, the more fuel for the "Everything rally", and vice versa.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Fibonacci-Extension Resistance $58.00 to $602025 record $55.48$52 to $53 mini-resistance$51.18 session highsPotential resistance 1 $57.50 to $60 (1.382% from 2022 lows)Potential resistance 2 $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)Support Levels:$48.30 to $49 support$47 low of potential daily channel$45.55 October 28 lows$43.00 to $45.00 Weekly pivot$39.50 to $40 higher timeframe support2012 Highs Support around $37.50Gold (XAU/USD) 8H Chart and technical levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 8H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold sacrificed some current momentum to hold a more balanced approach ahead of the FOMC.Moving sideways since reaching some new highs in end-October, the yellow metal could be forming an ascending triangle, a very bullish pattern.In the case of an upside break, take the leg of the triangle (its height – $250 in this pattern) and use it as a Measured Move target which could point to $4,550 in the Bullion.Do not forget that patterns don't mean much before they play out, and for them to play out, traders will await tomorrow's meeting.With RSI right back at neutral (and bouncing higher from there), there is space for breakouts; expect explosive price action!Similarly to Silver (and same for all metals), the direction of the breakout will be highly dependent on Powell's tone tomorrow – The main catalyst for continuation (or reversal) for all Markets!Levels to watch for Gold (XAU) trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time High resistance $4,300 to $4,400Ascending triangle highs: $4,250 to $4,260$4,380 Current all-time HighsFib-Induced potential new ATH resistance $4,500 to $4,575Support LevelsSupport, 8H 50-period MA and Triangle bottom $4,140 to $4,150Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)$3,700 consolidation Support$3,500 Major SupportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Hotter-than-expected October trimmed CPI and hawkish RBA communication have sharply reduced rate-cut expectations for 2026, with markets now pricing a >70% chance of a hike by end-2026.Australia’s 2-year and 10-year bond yield premiums over US Treasuries have widened to multi-year highs, boosting the appeal of AUD-denominated assets and supporting medium-term AUD/USD strength.AUD/USD maintains a short-term bullish bias above 0.6605, supported by a major trendline breakout, firm MACD momentum, and an RSI rebound from near-oversold levels. The hawkish parliamentary speech from RBA Governor Bullock in the past week and the latest monthly trimmed Australia’s mean CPI data for October 2025, which came in hotter than expected at 3.3% y/y (consensus: 3%, September: 3.2%), and breached above the upper limit of the RBA’s inflation target band of 2%-3% has significantly reduced interest rate cuts expectations in 2026.The Australian central bank (RBA) has cut its policy cash rate three times by 25 basis points each so far in 2025, in February, May, and August. Lowering the cash rate from a 13-year high of 4.35% in January 2025 to its current level of 3.6%.In today’s rate-setting meeting, the RBA has maintained a hold on its policy cash rate at 3.6% for the third time as expected, and it is likely the end of its current interest rate cut cycle, as interest rate futures are pricing in over a 70% chance of an interest rate hike by the end of 2026.All eyes and ears on RBA Governor Bullock’s press conference next at 4.30 am GMT.Australian sovereign bonds’ yield premium increases at a faster pace over US Treasuries zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Australian 2-YR & 10-YR sovereign bond yields spread over US Treasuries as of 9 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) In the past week, the Australian 10-year sovereign bond yield premium over US Treasuries has widened to 56 basis points (bps) at this time of writing, its widest spread since August 2022.The 2-year Australian sovereign bond yield, which is more sensitive to the RBA’s monetary policy stance, has also widened significantly over US Treasuries to 43 bps, its highest level in eight years.A widening yield premium of Australian sovereign bonds over US Treasuries increases the appeal of AUD-denominated assets, setting the stage for further medium-term strength in the AUD/USD exchange rate.Let’s now focus on the latest technical analysis elements, the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), and key levels to watch for in AUD/USD.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Watch the key short-term support at 0.6605 zoom_out_map Fig. 2: AUD/USD medium-term trend as of 9 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 9 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Bullish bias above 0.6605 short-term pivotal support for the AUD/USD, with intermediate resistance coming in at 0.6660, and above it sees 0.6690/6700 next (minor swing high area of 17/18 September 2025) (see Fig. 3).Key elements A major bullish breakout has occurred on the AUD/USD, where it has recorded a daily and weekly close above a former long-term descending trendline resistance that capped previous rallies since the 25 February 2021 high, now turns into pull-back support at 0.6605 (see Fig. 2).The daily MACD trend indicator has continued to trend upwards steadily above its centreline, which suggests a potential medium-term uptrend phase is in progress for AUD/USD (see Fig. 2).The hourly RSI momentum has rebounded after retesting its key support level at 33.3 during the US session on Monday, 8 December, which is just a whisker above its oversold region (below 30) (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 0.6605 key short-term support negates the bullish tone on the AUD/USD to expose a deeper minor corrective pull-back towards the next intermediate supports at 0.6580 and 0.6555. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (08/12/2025): Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they look ahead to key events in this week's trading. With December being an eventful month for central bank rate decisions, we discuss the upcoming RBA and Federal Reserve decisions in today's episode, with focus on last week's US PCE print and how the Aussie dollar is positioned ahead of the vote. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 5Markets are closing a high-expectations week and heading into an even-more volatile one. Coming back from the Thanksgiving break, traders confirmed the past week's spectacular rally with normal volumes returning to Stock Markets. While the week wasn't as unidirectional as last week, the overall mood is still highly positive as both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 stall just shy of their all-time highs.There has been several chaotic waves of action today: an initial rally in risk-assets was consequently followed by a strong selloff in Cryptos, which dragged Equities off of their relative highs. The reason for the selloff isn't a particular single catalyst, but looking at this week's narrative, MicroStrategy's ongoing liquidation dynamics—fueled by a massive stock crash and the possibility of selling Bitcoin to meet liquidity and dividend obligations—could still be into play.In terms of politics, the world assisted to the 2026 World Cup Draw in Washington this afternoon. While most were focused on the football calendar, traders were watching closely how US President Trump interacted with Canadian PM Mark Carney and Mexican President Sheinbaum.And some positive words from Trump regarding their relations have brought further strength in an ongoing Canadian Dollar rally – Canada posted yet another beat on their Employment data!Metals close a very positive week in a mixed fashion, with all of the tradable elements making a sharp move higher at the beginning of the week before settling down today.The commodity class which has surprised markets this week, and once again today, has been Energy products. WTI Crude Oil is back above the $60 mark, and Natural Gas is on a huge breakout, trading above $5/MMBtu and soaring over 70% since mid-October lows. This strength is driven by a cold front forecast and geopolitical supply risks. Read More:AI Leaders Outlook part 2: Technical Analysis of Google and Microsoft StocksMarkets Weekly Outlook - FOMC Rate Cut Countdown, Economic Projections May Hold the KeyUS stocks hesitant rally: Markets pass the Core PCE and U-of-Mich data barUK: Rising debt costs and fiscal uncertaintyCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Market performance stayed relatively muted today, with rangebound and undecided action across all assets – Well, except for Bitcoin which took a huge hit.Keep an eye on energy commodities, as there seems to be a theme developing there and could be the most interesting asset class ahead of the FOMC. All other classes should stay put in the waiting for Powell's words on Wednesday.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 5 – Source: OANDA Labs The Aussie was rallying quite aggressively during the overnight session with Markets starting to price out all types of cuts in 2026 after their huge inflation numbers, strong trade data and retail sales activity as of late – Their rate decision is happening on Monday evening, so traders are already preparing for some hawkish speeches.But the Canadian Dollar came to steal the show. As mentioned in the intro , another beat in Canadian Employment gave a huge boost to the currency, now reaching some monthly highs against most of its counterparts.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Sunday session will provide GDP Data for Japan, very important for the Yen – The Japanese economy is expected to contract further (-2% Annualized), which could severely complicate the Bank of Japan's hiking path.A rate hike has been drawing when looking at the BoJ's recent communications, but the tightening has been put to test with the recent Household spending data sharply missing.I invite you to have a look at our JPY/Japan fundamental analysis right here!Later on Sunday, China's Trade Balance will shed some light on the state of global demand, with exports expected to rebound.To start the week, the Early Monday session shall see the release of German Industrial Production at 2:00 A.M., looking to recover from the previous -1% slump.But the real show will start late in the evening with the RBA Interest Rate Decision at 22:30 ET – Keep a note on this one as it is the main event of the day. While a Hold at 3.6% is widely expected, the Rate Statement will be in the center of attention. The past communications have been hawkish, and traders are getting ready for more when looking at the daily rebound in the AUD.Don't forget the several BoE speakers (Taylor, Lombardelli) scheduled throughout the day – However, don't expect too much fireworks from the US session as the calendar remains light.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: WTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketAmerican consumers felt slightly better about the economy in early December, according to a survey released on Friday.The Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan went up to 53.3 this month, an improvement from 51.0 in November, and slightly better than what economists expected.However, the overall mood remains gloomy. The main problem is that consumers are still very worried about high prices (inflation) and are not very optimistic about the job market.On a positive note, consumers expect price increases to slow down slightly: they now anticipate inflation will be 4.1% over the next year, down from 4.5%, and 3.2% over the next five years, down from 3.4%. zoom_out_map Source: UofM PCE Data Release for September 2025 In September 2025, Americans spent 0.3% more than they did in August, which was a total increase of about $65.1 billion. This increase was exactly what financial experts had predicted.The main reason for this spending growth was a large jump in spending on services (up by $63.0 billion), especially on housing, utilities, healthcare, and financial services. Spending on physical goods saw only a small increase (up by $2.1 billion).This small gain was due to a sharp rise in the cost of gas and other energy; otherwise, spending would have fallen, as people spent less money on things like cars, recreational items, and clothes. zoom_out_map Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Market Impact & US Dollar Index (DXY) Reaction The data was not really a huge surprise and heading into the release i did not expect it to have a major impact on the Interest rate outlook moving forward for the Federal Reserve.Those assumptions have been proved correct with rate cut expectations remaining relatively unchanged for next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Markets are still pricing in around an 87% probability of a 25bps rate cut next week.Heading into next week's Fed meeting, I still believe that the economic projections may hold more weight than the actual decision by the Fed. This is unless the Fed defy market expectations and hold rates steady. Any rate cut may receive a lukewarm response.However the 2026 economic projections and particularly those around how many rate cuts the Fed sees in 2026 could stoke significant volatility.At the previous meeting the Fed's economic projections only showed one 25 bps rate in 2026. Any dovish or hawkish tilt in this regard could send market volatility soaring.Following today's data, the US dollar index slipped further as pressure continues to mount on the greenback.Immediate support rests at 98.72 before the 100-day MA at 98.58 and the 98.00 handles come into focus.On the upside, resistance may be found at the 200-day MA resting at 99.51 before the psychological 100.00 becomes an area of focus once more.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, December 5, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Trade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Some change is starting to appear for Canada after consecutive rough years.Subject to a red-hot post-COVID boom, the Land of the Maple Syrup had severely tightened its policy rates and immigration rules, leading to a consecutive trough in activity starting in 2024.To add to that, US President Trump’s protectionist policies placed huge tariffs on key Canadian exports, including Lumber, Aluminium, and many others, damaging demand for Canada's cyclical economy and its prospects for growth.Given that growth prospects are essential for inciting business investment and hiring, it is clear why Canada struggled quite a bit under such pressure.But with peak fear subsiding and in the absence of an actual trade deal, Canadian data is bouncing suddenly, and the CAD now leads its FX peers on the session. zoom_out_map Morning FX Performance, pre Core PCE (9:03 A.M.) December 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The shock came this morning with the publication of their third consecutive beat in Employment, posting a gain of +53.6K jobs (vs -5K exp).This also dropped the Unemployment rate considerably, from 7.0% to 6.5%.While most of the gains have been in the part-time economy, this is not entirely sub-optimal, as Canada's part-time and seasonal labor market is substantial, with winter and subsequent summer jobs solidifying Canada's labor picture.This strong surprise combines with recent beats in GDP and Housing data.Is Canada on the rise again, as the Bank of Canada looks to be done with its rate cuts (currently at 2.25%)?Canadian interest rate futures are already beginning to price hike premiums in 2026! zoom_out_map Details of the Canadian Employment report – December 5, 2025 We'll take a look at intraday charts for USD/CAD and EUR/CAD to see how important the shift was for the Loonie. Read More:Rising expectations for another rate hike in JapanMarkets Today: Asian & European Shares Mixed as German Factory Orders Rise. US PCE Data Remains the FocusWTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketUSD/CAD 4H Chart zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart. December 5, 2025– Source: TradingView The North-American pair is reaching levels not seen since mid-September as USD/CAD was breaking higher on failed trade deal negotiations.Since November 25, the pair has reversed harshly after forming a double top, bearish Moving Average crosses and now testing Key levels.On the verge of breaking its 1.39 (+/- 200 Pips) Major support zone, there won't be much to support the pair on a break lower before 800 pips below at 1.38.Momentum is a bit oversold which can lead to consolidation, so watch how things develop with the soon releasing Core PCE.Levels of interest for USD/CAD TradingResistance Levels1.3930 Mini-resistance1.40 Major Pivot acting as resistanceCycle highs 1.4143 and Double topResistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support LevelsMajor Support 1.3870 to 1.39 (breaking)1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportEUR/CAD 8H Chart zoom_out_map EUR/CAD 8H Chart. December 5, 2025– Source: TradingView The rally in EUR/CAD in 2025 has been relentless, particularly when looking how weak the Loonie got in recent years.Up from 1.46 to 1.6490 (Levels not seen since 2009) in just a year, the momentum had been a one way flow.Things are starting to change however, with the current range (1.6130 to 1.63) lasting long enough to break below the 2025 upwards trendline.Now testing the higher timeframe pivot, EUR/CAD sellers will want to push for a weekly close below 1.6120 to confirm a break-down.Failing to do so maintains the two week range.Levels of interest for EUR/CAD TradingResistance Levels1.62 Mid-range Resistance1.6258 MA 50 and 200July 2009 Highs around 1.6350August 2025 Highs 1.64697Support Levels1.6150 Range lows & Higher timeframe Pivot (testing)1.6050 Minor SupportSupport for higher trend 1.5950Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets now treat a December rate hike to 0.75% as the base case.Inflation remains above target, with limited improvement in core measures.Rising rate expectations are strengthening the yen, supported by a narrowing US - Japan rate spread.Higher yields may constrain the BoJ’s pace of tightening next year.Growing likelihood of a December rate increase Expectations for another interest rate hike in Japan are clearly strengthening. Although initial hints appeared as early as September, they have intensified markedly in recent days. According to the latest reports, Bank of Japan policymakers are prepared to raise the policy rate to 0.75% at the December meeting - provided no significant disruptions emerge. Markets are now almost fully pricing in such a move, making it the baseline scenario. zoom_out_map Valuation of futures contracts for the future path of interest rates in Japan, source: Bloomberg Inflation pressures persist despite partial stabilisation After a period of uncertainty linked to trade tensions, conditions have stabilised somewhat, while inflation remains above the central bank’s target and continues to strain households. Although much of the price growth stems from volatile food costs - an area monetary policy should not overreact to - the core inflation index in Japan excludes only fresh food and energy. Within this measure, improvement has been limited despite some stabilisation in individual categories. zoom_out_map Inflation measures in Japan and the level of the main interest rate, source: Bloomberg The risk of credibility loss for the Bank of Japan A prolonged period of above-target inflation threatens to undermine the central bank’s credibility. For decades, Japan grappled with very low inflation, and markets grew accustomed to price growth below target. Today’s environment is different. Ignoring persistently elevated inflation - even if partly driven by unstable factors - is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.Yen strengthens as rate expectations rise Rising expectations for further rate hikes are supporting the yen, which has begun to appreciate against the dollar after weeks of weakness. The USD/JPY pair is trending lower, and the prospect of additional moves suggests further strengthening of the Japanese currency. The Bank of Japan will likely raise rates again in the spring - to around 1% - while the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its easing cycle. As a result, the interest-rate differential between the US and Japan should narrow to roughly 150 basis points by the end of next year, creating further room for yen appreciation.Higher rates push bond yields up Higher interest rates come with side effects, especially the rise in Japanese government bond yields. Recent increases have been substantial. While this is unlikely to stop the BoJ from delivering a December hike, it may slow the pace of future actions - the central bank is keen to avoid triggering a sharp sell-off in the debt market, especially as the government’s fiscal package is also exerting upward pressure on yields.Technical picture of USD/JPY In the second half of November, the USD/JPY currency pair reached levels corresponding to the peak recorded at the beginning of this year. The exchange rate has ‘returned’ to the upward trend channel, which it broke above last month. Signals coming from the BoJ, together with the technical setup, indicate that the strengthening of the JPY may continue, pushing the pair’s quotations toward even 150.00. zoom_out_map USD/JPY currency pair chart, daily data, source: Tradingview Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Grind Lower Most Read: The Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical PrecedentAsian stock markets went down today because the previous day ended poorly on Wall Street, especially for tech companies and US government bonds (Treasuries). Investors are now nervously waiting for important US inflation data that will be released later today (Friday).The overall Asian stock index fell by up to 0.7% but is still on track to finish with a gain for the second week in a row.Leading the losses across the region were Japanese stocks, which saw a significant drop after a strong gain the day before; the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.5% and is expected to close the week mostly unchanged.Meanwhile, the broader index of Asian stocks outside of Japan was down a slight 0.1% but is still set for a 0.5% gain for the week.On the data front, household spending in Japan fell in October, and it was the fastest drop in almost two years. This suggests that rising prices (inflation) are severely reducing how much money people feel comfortable spending.As a result, the interest rate (or yield) on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 1.94% early in Asian trading, reaching its highest level since the middle of 2007, indicating that the cost of borrowing money for the government is going up significantly.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered its key repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25% during its December 2025 meeting, in line with market forecasts amid confidence in a softer inflation outlook. The RBI has now cut rates by a total of 125 bps since the beginning of the year, bringing the repo rate to its lowest level since July 2022.German Factory Orders Rise New orders for German factories increased by 1.5% in October 2025 compared to September, which was better than the expected 0.5% rise, though it was slower than the 2.0% jump seen the month before.This increase marked the second month in a row for growth, mainly driven by a massive 87.1% surge in orders for large transportation equipment like aircraft and ships, along with an 11.9% rise in metal production.However, not all areas did well, as orders for electrical equipment dropped significantly by 16.2%. Looking at the details, orders for capital goods (like machinery) rose 4.9%, but orders for intermediate goods (used in production) and consumer goods both declined.The overall increase was fueled entirely by the domestic market, which saw a 9.9% surge in orders, completely offsetting the 4.0% fall in foreign demand, which was particularly weak outside the Euro area. If you remove the effect of large, one-off contracts, total orders only rose by 0.5%.Over the last three months, total factory orders saw a small decline, but excluding the effect of those large, erratic contracts, orders actually grew by 2.0%, suggesting the underlying demand for German manufactured goods remains steady.European Session - European Shares Steady European stock markets were stable on Friday after three straight days of increases, keeping them on track for a weekly gain as investors look ahead to key US inflation figures.The main pan-European STOXX 600 index was up slightly by 0.1%, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 also seeing modest gains.The main event is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report due later today, which is highly anticipated because it could influence whether the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, decides to cut interest rates soon. Recent economic data and comments from some Fed officials have already led investors to expect an interest rate cut as early as next week.In terms of market sectors, basic resources were the top performers, rising 1.3% after copper prices hit a new high, and industrial stocks also saw their fourth straight day of gains. Separately, the investment bank Citigroup set a positive forecast for the main European index by 2026 and upgraded several sectors, including autos and industrials, based on expected financial benefits.Among individual company moves, Swiss Re fell 5.3% after its 2026 targets disappointed analysts, while Ocado surged 12.7% after the company announced it would receive a one-time $350 million payment from U.S. grocer Kroger for closing some planned warehouse facilities.On the FX front, the US dollar remained weak on Friday, staying near its lowest level in five weeks compared to other major currencies.The dollar was especially weak against the Japanese yen, which was boosted to a nearly three-week high because investors expect the Bank of Japan to raise its interest rates later this month. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against six other currencies, fell 0.2% and is heading toward a 0.6% decline for the week overall.In contrast, other currencies saw gains: the euro rose 0.1%, moving back toward its three-week high; the British pound gained 0.2%, approaching a six-week peak; and the Australian dollar advanced 0.3%, reaching its strongest point in over two months.The Swiss franc also saw a small gain against the dollar.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold price rallied again overnight pushing back above the $4230/oz handle before a pullback. The precious metal has traded in a tight range this week with a breakout likely to be forthcoming post today's PCE data.If not the range could persist heading into next week's FOMC meeting barring any major geopolitical developments.Read More:Santa Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Alert: Bitcoin Breaks Major Resistance - Next Stop $100,000?WTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil MarketEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet today with Euro Area GDP data the highlight.Attention will turn to the US session where the main event is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report due later today, which is highly anticipated because it could influence whether the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, decides to cut interest rates soon.Recent economic data and comments from some Fed officials have already led investors to expect an interest rate cut as early as next week.There are also a bunch of medium impact data releases such as the University of Michigan sentiment and revised Durable Goods data.I do not expect huge volatility from any of these events but given the lack of volatility this week, I am hoping for a bit more from today. Let us see what happens. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has held above the 100-day MA since last Thursday afternoon.This could be seen as a sign of bullish momentum with a potential breakout coming soon.However, the longer price remains rangebound, this will increase investor angst and a potential pullback may materialize.For now though, a bullish move appears more favorable as the index continues to grind higher.Immediate support rests at 9686, 9661 and 9610 respectively.A move higher may encounter some resistance at 9750, 9800 and 9850.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, December 5. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.