FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been bouncing around in the past few days as traders continue to wait for the US NFP report. The US data this week has been mixed. We got a soft ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday but a strong Services PMI yesterday. The ADP was good despite a slight miss, but Job Openings were soft. In terms of macro, nothing has changed. The market is still pricing 62 bps of easing by year-end with 57% probability of a Fed cut coming in March at the earliest. We will need very soft NFP and CPI data to force the Fed to cut at the upcoming meeting, otherwise traders will just adjust the timing of the expected cuts in 2026 and might even increase bets in the case of weak data.Tomorrow, the US Supreme Court scheduled an “opinion day”, so we might also potentially get a decision on Trump’s tariffs. CAD:On the CAD side, the BoC held interest rates steady at the last policy meeting but didn't validate the market's rate hike bets just yet. In fact, the central bank kept a cautious tone and highlighted the weak details in the last GDP and employment reports despite acknowledging the improvements. The last Canadian inflation report saw the Trimmed Mean Y/Y falling to 2.8%, 0.1% lower than consensus and 0.2% than the prior month. That led to a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. Tomorrow, we have the Canadian employment data and that could give the CAD a boost in case we get another strong report. USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD squeezed higher in the past couple of weeks with the price now trading near the key 1.39 resistance. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 1.3540 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to open the door for a rally into the 1.41 handle next.USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a strong support zone around the 1.38 handle where the price got rejected from several times in the past month. There’s also an upward trendline adding confluence that should technically strengthen the support zone. If we get a pullback into the support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a break above the resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.3540 level next.USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to target new highs, while the sellers will keep on looking for downside breaks to pile in for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US and Canadian labour market reports and potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:US dollar remains supported despite mixed US dataTraders turn their focus to the US NFP report for the next directionSwiss CPI matches estimates, SNB seen on hold for a long timeUSD/CHF rises into a key resistance near the 0.80 handleFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been bouncing around in the past few days as traders continue to wait for the US NFP report. The US data this week has been mixed. We got a soft ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday but a strong Services PMI yesterday. The ADP was good despite a slight miss, but Job Openings were soft. In terms of macro, nothing has changed. The market is still pricing 62 bps of easing by year-end with 57% probability of a Fed cut coming in March at the earliest. We will need very soft NFP and CPI data to force the Fed to cut at the upcoming meeting, otherwise traders will just adjust the timing of the expected cuts in 2026 and might even increase bets in the case of weak data.Tomorrow, the US Supreme Court scheduled an “opinion day”, so we might also potentially get a decision on Trump’s tariffs. CHF:On the CHF side, nothing has changed. The SNB left everything unchanged at the last meeting and sounded a bit more positive on the future outlook given the lower US tariff rate. SNB’s members continue to repeat that the bar for negative rates remains high, so that leaves the Swiss Franc trading mostly based on risk sentiment. The Swiss CPI today matched expectations with the Core reading holding steady around 0.5%. Unless we get a strong negative shock in the economy or outright deflation, the SNB is unlikely to do anything for a long time.USDCHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF bounced from the bottom of the range around the 0.7970 level and it’s now approaching the 0.80 handle. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.USDCHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an important zone around the 0.7980 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past several months. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the zone to position for a drop into the bottom of the range. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the top of the range around the 0.81 handle.USDCHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been trading inside a rising channel into the key resistance. The RSI has been diverging with the latest push into the resistance indicating a loss of momentum. This might be a signal for a bigger pullback into the trendline around the 0.7930 level. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the bottom of the channel to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.1%PPI -1.7% vs -1.9% y/y expectedPrior -0.5%It's a beat on estimates but this is very much a lagging data point at best. The consumer price index (CPI) precedes this and outweighs this on inflation trends, so just take this as a supportive or secondary data. If excluding energy, producer prices were only up 0.1% on the month in November last year.The breakdown shows that prices for:Intermediate goods +0.3%Energy +1.8%Capital goods +0.1%Durable consumer goods +0.3%Non-durable consumer goods -0.2%And when compared to the same month a year ago, producer prices were seen down 1.7%. However, much of that owes to a steep decline in energy prices (-7.4%). All other categories show an increase compared to the corresponding month one year ago, with total producer prices actually up 1.0% once you strip out energy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It seems like Challenger published the report early again with job cuts in December 2025 totaling to 35,553, down 50% from the 71,321 layoffs announced in November. Compared to the previous December in 2024 (38,792), job cuts were down 8%.The total for December last year is the lowest monthly total since 25,885 cuts were announced in July 2024 and the lowest December total since 2023. It is only the fourth time in 2025 that job cuts were lower than the corresponding month in the one year before that.Looking as a whole, 2025 job cuts amounted to 1,206,374. That is the highest yearly total since 2020 i.e. the Covid pandemic year and the seventh highest annual total since 1989. The total is only behind the years 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, and 2020 itself.The breakdown for the year shows that the government sector led job cuts across all industries with 308,167 layoffs announced. All of that is primarily tied to the federal government with this being up 703% from the 38,375 job cuts in 2024. Much of that came in Q1 though amid Elon Musk's DOGE initiative, with the total in the first quarter being 279,445 job cuts. The subsequent nine months only totaled to 28,722 job cuts.In the private sector, it was tech that led job cuts last year with 154,445 layoffs announced. That is up 15% from the 133,988 job cuts in this sector in 2024. Challenger notes that:"Technology has been pivoting to both developing and implementing artificial intelligence much more quickly than any other industry. This coupled with over-hiring over the last decade created a wave of job loss in the industry."The full report can be found here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:USD continues to bounce around as traders await the US NFP reportUS data has been mixed, macro outlook remains unchangedNZD bias still neutral given the lack of key economic reportsRBNZ expected to deliver a rate hike by the end of the yearFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been bouncing around in the past few days as traders continue to wait for the US NFP report. The US data this week has been mixed. We got a soft ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday but a strong Services PMI yesterday. The ADP was good despite a slight miss, but Job Openings were soft. In terms of macro, nothing has changed. The market is still pricing 62 bps of easing by year-end with 57% probability of a Fed cut coming in March at the earliest. We will need very soft NFP and CPI data to force the Fed to cut at the upcoming meeting, otherwise traders will just adjust the timing of the expected cuts in 2026 and might even increase bets in the case of weak data.Tomorrow, the US Supreme Court scheduled an “opinion day”, so we might also potentially get a decision on Trump’s tariffs. NZD:On the NZD side, the RBNZ cut the OCR to 2.25% as expected at the last policy meeting and signalled the end of the easing cycle. The central bank indicated that the OCR would remain at the current level through 2026. This gave the New Zealand dollar a boost as the market priced out the expected easing 2026 and priced in the possibility of a rate hike as the next move. We haven’t got any key economic report out of New Zealand in the meantime, so the outlook remains neutral.NZDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the NZDUSD has a nice rally following the RNBZ decision back in November. The key resistance zone around the 0.5850 level stalled the momentum though and we started to consolidate awaiting new catalysts. We have a strong support zone around the 0.5740 level where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a break above the key resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to open the door for new lows and target the 0.5500 handle next.NZDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action with the support zone around the 0.5740 level limiting the downside. A break should open the door for new lows, with the 0.57 handle as the first target. The buyers will continue to step in around the support, while the sellers will wait for a break.NZDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the recent pullback into the support. If the price bounces and rallies into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing for a break below the support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.5850 resistance next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

If there's one spot that investors should look to amid all the fiscal risks in most major economies and the de-dollarisation narrative, it's Asia ex-Japan (AxJ). The US has its own set of issues and so does Europe, and with Japan also facing a power struggle between the government and central bank, there are clear considerations for a shift of money to the other side of the globe.That is what we saw happen in 2025, despite the first half of the year being littered by risks of Trump's tariffs. And we're seeing sentiment continue to build towards that again as we get into 2026.The latest Asian currency positioning poll by Reuters here is one that underscores the prevailing narrative and once again, Asian currencies are the ones that might actually benefit the most this year amid all the havoc around the globe. That despite the typical correlation that geopolitical tensions and flight to safety positioning can be bad for emerging market currencies.For some context, this poll is one that focuses on what fund managers believe are current market positions in the nine Asian currencies listed:Some interesting findings:Long Chinese yuan bets continue to nudge higher to the largest in 15 yearsTraders pull back on bets against the South Korean won after months of bashingLong bets on the Singaporean dollar rise to the highest since July last yearLong Thai baht bets climb to the highest since June last yearBullish bets on the Malaysian ringgit (strongest performing Asian currency in 2025) continue to hold This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:US dollar continues to bounce around as traders await the NFP reportUS data this week came out mixedJapanese wage data disappointed with traders slightly paring back rate hike betsUSDJPY price action remains rangebound as we await new catalystsFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been bouncing around in the past few days as traders continue to wait for the US NFP report. The US data this week has been mixed. We got a soft ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday but a strong Services PMI yesterday. The ADP was good despite a slight miss, but Job Openings were soft. In terms of macro, nothing has changed. The market is still pricing 62 bps of easing by year-end with 57% probability of a Fed cut coming in March at the earliest. We will need very soft NFP and CPI data to force the Fed to cut at the upcoming meeting, otherwise traders will just adjust the timing of the expected cuts in 2026 and might even increase bets in the case of weak data.Tomorrow, the US Supreme Court scheduled an “opinion day”, so we might also potentially get a decision on Trump’s tariffs. JPY:On the JPY side, the economic data hasn’t been pointing to any urgent action from the BoJ. The latest wage data disappointed and the Tokyo CPI in December was softer than expected. Inflation has been hovering above the BoJ’s 2% target but never showed concerning developments. The central bank is still placing a great deal on wage growth, so wage data and spring wage negotiations remain key. The market is now pricing 36 bps of tightening this year following the soft wage data, and if we continue to see weakness in the data, we could end up with no hikes at all. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that we have a strong support zone around the 154.50 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past weeks. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the support to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline around the 151.00 level.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we’ve had a messy price action lately, not giving us any clear level where to lean on. We have a minor upward trendline that could act as support. The buyers will likely step in there with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 154.50 support.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we’ve been trading inside what looks like a broadening wedge. The price action this week has been contained in a rising channel. The buyers will likely continue to step in around the bottom trendline to keep pushing into the top of the wedge, while the sellers will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the bottom of the wedge. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

"Only time will tell" how long direct oversight is demanded on VenezuelaWe will rebuild it in a very profitable wayThe oil will take a while; but we’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oilWe’re getting oil prices down, and we’re going to be giving money to Venezuela, which they desperately need(when asked how long US might oversee Venezuela; 6 months? A year?) "I would say much longer"It's funny how Polymarket has the galls to say that this isn't an invasion. But yeah, that's another controversial take that has been happening on the sidelines of what we're seeing transpire on the geopolitical stage. As you would expect with any major powerhouse that takes ownership of something, they find it hard to let go. And this will be one of those things that we will see here with Venezuela.As mentioned before, the country is a hotbed for natural resources - not just oil. But for now, that's the main talking point and Trump wants to squeeze what he can to allow for the US to benefit from that amid this "non-invasion".He spoke earlier in the day in wanting to drive oil prices back down to $50. So we'll see about that. But as the situation continues to develop, Russia and China will be the ones in watch to see how they might respond.If Venezuela blocks the US access to oil and/or if Russia and China will still have presence, Trump didn't rule out sending more military personnel to deal with the situation. His response was:"I can’t tell you that. I really wouldn’t want to tell you that, but they’re treating us with great respect. As you know, we’re getting along very well with the administration that is there right now. They’re giving us everything that we feel is necessary." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Today, I'm taking a fresh look at Bitcoin futures as we move deeper into the start of year 2026.After two weeks where bulls briefly reclaimed control and enjoyed what I would call their moment of fame, the technical picture has shifted again. Bears are back in control, and the structure that is developing deserves close attention, especially for traders and investors who were positioning for a clean continuation toward the $100K handle. Risk on or risk off moods? Gold was decining in the past couple of days, including today when we also had a successful trade idea on our Telegram Channel (hop on over, it's free).The Technical Structure: Regression Channel and Bear Flag RiskOn the chart in my bitcoin futures technical analysis video above , I am using a regression channel with two standard deviations, which helps encapsulate the dominant move and highlight where price is stretching or reverting. Bitcoin has now made another touch near the upper boundary of this channel. Importantly, the channel itself is slightly sloping upward, which often creates a deceptive sense of bullish continuation.In reality, this combination frequently resolves as a bear flag. The logic is simple: price consolidates or drifts modestly higher after a strong decline, then breaks lower once buyers fail to regain real control. If Bitcoin revisits this upper channel area again, perhaps after a modest retracement, and then rolls over, it increases the probability of a continuation move lower. In that scenario, a break below the November 21 low becomes a realistic risk rather than a tail event.Pitchfork Breakdown Adds Confluence to Bitcoin Bears TodayAdding to the bearish case, the pitchfork structure that previously guided price higher has already been broken to the downside. Whether you draw it conservatively or more aggressively, the message remains consistent: the market is no longer respecting that bullish framework. When multiple technical tools point in the same direction, it strengthens the signal and reduces the odds that this is just noise.Bitcoin Trading Volume Today Confirms Participation, Not ApathyOne detail I want to stress is volume. The recent downside has not occurred on thin or holiday-style participation. We are seeing healthy, elevated volume, including activity above the EMA and near what looks like exhaustion selling zones. This tells me the move lower is supported by conviction, not just a lack of buyers.Scenarios to Watch Going Forward for Bitcoin FuturesIn the near term, a relief rally is still possible. Price could drift toward the midline of the regression channel, potentially retesting the broken pitchfork area around $92,300, depending on timing. That would not invalidate the bearish structure by itself.For bulls to genuinely regain control, the market needs more than a bounce. I am watching a gently rising trend line defined by multiple clear touch points. Only if we see two consecutive candles closing above that line, currently around $96,100, would it suggest that bulls are meaningfully back in the game.On the downside, failure to reclaim those levels keeps the door open to a deeper move, potentially toward the $82,250 area, where the next major decision point would emerge.Bitcoin Market is Dynamic, and You Should Be, TooMarkets are dynamic, not ideological. I previously noted that a push toward $100K was possible if bullish conditions persisted and indeed buyers enjoyed that Long, but since yesterday, price is shifting to a different story. A marginal new high was rejected, and sellers stepped back in. The key now is staying agile, reading the message of price and volume, and avoiding stubborn bias.As always, this is a scenario-based technical perspective, not a prediction or financial advice. We will continue to update the outlook as the structure evolves. For deeper follow-ups and updated levels, stay tuned to InvestingLive.A Last Word about Bitcoin Dominance (...and what is that, anyway?)Based on a separate analysis I reviewed and my own interpretation which could of course be wrong, Bitcoin dominance looks like it may be setting up for a move higher, and with Bitcoin price already slipping since yesterday, the more relevant scenario to consider is a risk-off rotation inside crypto. When dominance rises while price weakens, it often means capital is leaving altcoins faster than it is leaving Bitcoin, a classic defensive shift rather than outright panic. For traders, the guidance here is not to predict but to observe: watch whether altcoins continue to underperform Bitcoin on relative charts, monitor if Bitcoin starts stabilizing while dominance keeps climbing, and pay attention to whether speculative narratives cool off. From an educational perspective, this environment tends to reward patience, reduced beta, and cleaner positioning, with Bitcoin acting as the relative safe haven inside crypto until risk appetite improves again. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior 0.0%Core CPI +0.5% y/yPrior +0.4%Swiss inflation continues to hold rather flattish with there being no growth on the month-on-month reading as well. That continues to underscore a lack of any momentum in price pressures. The script has flipped on the SNB for quite a while now as the battle is now against deflation rather than inflation once again.For now though, core annual inflation keeping at around 0.5% is still allowing them some breathing room so as to avoid diving into the toolbox of special monetary policy weapons to deal with the situation. In particular, the Swiss central bank wants to avoid negative interest rates for as much as they can and for as long as they can get away with.And the latest inflation data above will just about help them stick to the status quo for now. It's not a topic that I would want to get into now but there is a risk of China exporting deflation across the globe in the coming year. And if so, Switzerland will not be insulated from that impact. So, the SNB might be forced into another tough spot and one that might not be too within their control. Just some food for thought as we look to the year ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we have a few important data releases although they most likely won't be market-moving given the limited impact on monetary policy. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.1% vs 0.0% prior. Inflation has been missing the SNB's forecasts recently but the central bank continues to push back on negative interest rates and maintains a positive outlook. The data won't change anything for the SNB unless we start to see bigger downside surprises.The Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%. It has increased a little bit in 2025 but remains near record lows. If the rate continues to increase, the market will likely start to price in good chances of a rate cut in the second half of 2026, especially if inflation keeps on easing. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight will be the US Jobless Claims data release. Initial Claims are expected at 210K vs 199K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1900K vs 1866K prior. Jobless Claims have been the clearest proof of the "low firing, low hiring" labour market as initial claims remained contained in the range created since 2022, while continuing claims kept on creeping up, especially after "Liberation Day" as economic uncertainty increased.We saw a notable drop in continuing claims recently but we've also had lots of holidays that might have skewed the data. The NFP report tomorrow should give us a better view of the current labour market conditions. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 0.0%; revised to -0.1%House prices +0.3% vs +1.1% y/y expectedPrior +0.7%; revised to +0.6%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.5%; revised to +1.6%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being a large one for USD/JPY at the 156.15 level. The pair has been seeing a lot of pushing and pulling all through the week, largely holding between 156 to 157 since Tuesday. The latest dip today is no different, with markets taking on a defensive risk tone in general. Equities fell off yesterday and we're seeing US futures dip further as Nvidia scrutiny in China continues to grow.That puts some light downside pressure on the pair but we might not get all the way to the expiries seen above. There is still some support from the 200-hour moving average at 156.46 currently. But amid a further drop during the session ahead, the expiries could play a role in anchoring further declines in European morning trade at least.There are also modestly large ones for EUR/USD at 1.1660 and AUD/USD at 0.6730. But all else being equal, they may not factor too much into play given a lack of technical significance alongside the prevailing risk mood.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The sources mentioned that Nvidia is requiring full upfront payment from Chinese customers who are seeking its H200 artificial intelligence chips, which is a rather unusual and stringent term compared to standard industry practice. This looks to be a move by Nvidia to hedge against the relative uncertainty of whether Beijing will approve of the shipments it would seem.Besides requiring full upfront payment, Nvidia is also imposing terms of having no options for clients to cancel, ask for refunds or change configurations after the orders are placed. And in special circumstances, Nvidia might allow for customers to provide commercial insurance or asset collateral as an alternative to cash payment.For some context, Chinese tech firms have reportedly placed over 2 million orders for H200 chips. That well exceeds the inventory of 700,000 of the chips. Despite Beijing wanting to force Chinese companies to rely more on homemade technology, it's clear that China's own developed AI processors are still lagging behind Nvidia especially for large-scale training of advanced AI models.Adding to the report above, Beijing is said to have asked some Chinese tech firms to temporarily pause their H200 chip orders as regulators are trying to decide how many domestically produced chips each customer will be required to buy alongside each H200 chip order. In other words, Beijing is trying to balance things out in some convoluted way to force these companies to still find use or make do with China-made chips.As for Nvidia itself, there's good and bad to their decision here. On the one hand, they know that they have leverage to demand such terms. And the application helps to transfer the financial risk from Nvidia to its Chinese clients, in hopefully avoiding what happened with the incident involving H20 chips previously.However, it is very much a balancing act. With Chinese clients already forced out by Beijing to seek domestic alternatives, Nvidia's steep financial terms could very well accelerate the transition. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There's always that certain sense of danger when it comes to consensus trades. And this one here to start the new year is no different. Everyone's talking about commodities as we get into 2026 trading with plenty of focus and attention on gold and silver, especially after the surging rally in December.And after a hot start to the week, both precious metals are sliding back lower now. The former is down nearly 2% from the highs while the latter is down over 8% from the highs this week. Volatility? Yes, please.The main event this week is the US labour market report tomorrow. That being said, it doesn't mean that it is the only game in town though. There's also the Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs as well. So, just keep that in mind.But before we get to that, we're already seeing a testing moment amid the price drop today.Gold is falling back down to test the confluence of its 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages once again. The key support region is seen at $4,422-28 currently, and a break below that will see the near-term bias switch back to being more bearish. Hold above and buyers will stay in with a shout in trying to build for another leg higher after the events tomorrow; if they play out accordingly that is.And it's the same thing we're seeing in the silver chart too:The precious metal is seeing price drop by nearly 3% so far today, dragging it back towards a test of its 200-hour moving average (blue line) at $75.59. Hold above that and buyers will still retain some semblance of near-term control. However, break below that and the near-term bias switches to being more bearish again.As mentioned above, the danger when it comes to consensus trades is always the neck breaking pace in which pullbacks and/or corrections can happen. The end direction tends to side with the consensus come what may but you can't underestimate or discount the potential and the strength of any retracements.With there being such a heavy consensus for gold and silver to keep rising, that despite the surging pace of gains since August last year, it would be unwise to ignore the early warning signals from the charts. And that especially if there is a sequence of events that align with conditions for a pullback. So, this may just be an early test but it is one well worth being mindful about. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's a rare report in which the Japanese central bank makes no changes to any of their economic assessment of the 9 Japanese regions covered. For the most part, they see regional economies as "recovering moderately" or "picking up moderately". And that fits with their main messaging in their view towards the Japanese economy as a whole too.Here is the full assessment breakdown:Looking at the other details:Public investment is mixed with some regions seen "picking up" while others "has been at a high level"Business fixed investment are all seen as "increasing"Private consumption is also mixed, with an array of assessments from "picking up", "recovering moderately", "has been firm/resilient", and "increasing moderately"Housing investment is mostly described as "relatively weak" across most regionsProduction is mostly seen as "more or less flat" as a trend with only Tohoku seen as "picking up"Employment and income is seen as "improving moderately" across the boardThis is one report that offers just a glimpse of what the BOJ is feeling about the economy and what makes up their view and general outlook. It's not one that really offers too much excitement or significance in terms of market impact. So, carry on as you will. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Date: January 8, 2026 (23:23, Wednesday, 7 January 2026, Eastern Time (ET))By investingLive.com Head of Strategy and analyst, Itai Levitan, using orderFlow IntelMarket Focus: Gold Futures (GC), February 2026 ContractGold Technical Analysis Summary (Key Takeaways)Gold technical analysis confirms a trend day down after failure above key value levels.A clear look-above-and-fail near 4475 triggered renewed selling pressure.Order flow shows weak downside support, suggesting consolidation is corrective, not bullish.Gold price prediction bias remains bearish, with 4430 acting as the next downside magnet.Gold Technical Analysis: From Consolidation to Trend BreakdownToday’s gold technical analysis shows a decisive shift in market structure. What began as an attempt to stabilize has evolved into a confirmed bearish trend. Early session strength was aggressively sold, and once price lost the 4450 support zone, downside momentum accelerated.From a structural perspective, gold is no longer rotating within balance. Value is migrating lower, VWAP is acting as resistance, and order flow confirms sellers remain in control. Based on these factors, our OrderFlow Score stands at -8, signaling strong bearish conditions rather than a temporary dip.Gold Price Action Breakdown: The Look Above and Fail PatternUnderstanding the morning sequence is critical for gold price prediction today.Opening context: Gold opened near 4467 and pushed higher toward 4475-4476, aligning with yesterday’s Value Area High.Rejection: Sellers stepped in aggressively at 4475.2, preventing acceptance above value.Result: Once price failed above value, selling intensified and gold broke below 4450, confirming a bearish continuation pattern.This type of look-above-and-fail is a classic technical signal that often precedes range expansion to the downside.Order Flow Insight for Gold: Thin Support at the LowsGold is currently pausing between 4440 and 4448, which may appear constructive on higher timeframes. However, deeper order flow analysis paints a different picture.Weak Support StructurePassive buy orders below current price are limited and fragmented.There is no evidence of sustained institutional accumulation.This type of price behavior typically represents corrective consolidation, not a bottoming process. Sellers are pausing, not exiting.Value Area Migration Confirms Bearish BiasPrevious value: 4450 to 4465Developing value today: Centered closer to 4445When value shifts lower, it confirms that the market is accepting lower prices. In gold technical analysis, value migration is one of the strongest trend-confirmation signals.Gold Price Prediction: Bearish Bias Remains IntactOrderFlow Score: -8 (Strong Bearish)Market Condition: Trend continuationMajor supports including 4450 and VWAP have failed.Upside attempts lack volume expansion and delta confirmation.The pause at current lows appears tactical, not structural.Unless proven otherwise, the technical evidence favors additional downside.Key Gold Technical Levels to Watch for TodayResistance Zone: 4448 to 4454Former support at 4450 has flipped into resistance.Gold price prediction scenario: If price revisits this area with weak momentum or stalling volume, it reinforces bearish continuation setups.Downside Target: 4430This level represents unfinished auction activity and remains a liquidity magnet.A clean break below 4440 increases the probability of a fast move toward 4430.Bearish Invalidation Level: Above 4460To neutralize the bearish gold technical outlook, bulls must reclaim 4460 with strong volume and sustained acceptance above VWAP.Until that occurs, rallies are technically corrective.Educational Insight: Identifying Real Support in Gold Technical AnalysisA common challenge in gold technical analysis is distinguishing real support from perceived support.On higher timeframes, volume clusters can look like accumulation.On lower timeframes, those same areas may reveal thin, easily breakable bids.This is why professional gold price prediction relies on multi-timeframe confirmation. Today’s micro order flow confirms that current support lacks depth, increasing the odds of another downside leg.Gold Chart of the Day (so far... stay tuned for more at our Telegram Channel)Disclaimer: This gold technical analysis and gold price prediction are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all traders.Join us on Telegram for free, at https://t.me/investingLiveStocks, where we dish out further updates, ideas, opinions, and gold gems.We had a short taken yesterday near the highs of today, and exited and took the last profit target just above 4430. Come on over to the Telegram Channel to see possible future trade ideas live (and we never promise they will succeed, we just promise to work hard and wisely). This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

China warns battery makers on overcapacity risks in EV and energy storage sectorsJapan 30-year JGB auction weakens as bid-to-cover drops and tail widensTrump wants strategic control of Venezuela oil industry to reshape markets, send oil to 50Barclays urges selective approach to Chinese tech stocks in 2026Goldman Sachs sees further China equities upside on AI and earnings growth: "Prominent 10"RBA’s Hauser downplays CPI relief, says rate cuts unlikely anytime soonChina accused of hacking U.S. congressional staff emails in Salt Typhoon cyber campaignUS oil majors seek guarantees before investing in Venezuela as Trump pushes output revivalPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0197 (vs. estimate at 6.9926)DATA: Australia November 2025 Trade Balance +2936mn AUD (expected +4900mn)South Korea warns on won volatility, signals swift action and equity-inflow measuresPBOC rolls CNY 1.1tn repos to keep liquidity ample as Q1 funding needs riseJapan real wages slide sharply in November, posing a key dilemma for the Bank of JapanDATA: Japan November 2025 real wages -2.8% y/yRubio to meet Danish officials amid rising tensions over Greenland and NATOGoldman Sachs warns extreme silver price volatility likely to persistChina FX reserves rise as record trade surplus revives yuan valuation debateinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: ISM services improves, JOLTS disappointAt a glance:FX ranges subdued despite heavy macro and geopolitical news flowJapan wages and JGB auction highlight long-end pressureRBA pushes back firmly on rate-cut expectationsSouth Korea and China policy signals aim to stabilise marketsGeopolitics add to risk premium, but not yet disorderlyMarket overview: Major FX pairs traded in narrow, subdued ranges despite a busy session for macro data and policy headlines across the Asia-Pacific region. Markets appeared content to absorb developments without chasing momentum, with positioning cautious ahead of upcoming global data and central-bank events.Japan: wages and bonds in focus:Japan’s real wages fell 2.8% y/y in November, the sharpest decline since January, as a plunge in bonus payments combined with still-elevated inflation continued to erode household purchasing power. The data underscore the ongoing challenge for the BOJ: tightening policy into an environment where real incomes remain under pressure. Bond markets echoed that tension. Japan’s 30-year JGB auction saw weaker demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 3.14 from 4.04, while the tail widened to 0.15. The highest accepted yield printed at 3.457%, keeping pressure on the super-long end and reinforcing curve-steepening risks. Japanese equities extended losses, with the Nikkei sliding for a second day amid profit-taking in AI-related names. The index also fell below the 52,000 level as trade frictions with China resurfaced, including Beijing’s anti-dumping probe into Japan’s dichlorosilane imports — a key semiconductor input.Australia: trade data and firm RBA messaging: Australia’s goods trade surplus narrowed sharply in November, falling to A$2.94bn from A$4.35bn, well below expectations. Exports dropped 2.9%, led by a 9% fall in iron ore, while imports edged 0.2% higher. On policy, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reinforced a firm stance, saying November CPI was “largely as expected” and that inflation above 3% remains too high. He reiterated that Australians have likely seen the last rate cut of this cycle, leaving February hike risk alive. The messaging supported front-end yields and helped limit downside pressure on the Australian dollar.Korea:South Korea’s finance ministry warned FX volatility is elevated, said won moves are disconnected from fundamentals, and pledged swift stabilisation measures if needed. Officials also flagged steps to encourage investment into local equities.China and geopolitics China-related risk sentiment remained mixed. Chinese markets were uneven, with Hong Kong pressured by tech weakness, while the mainland found support from a CNY 1.1tn PBoC reverse repo operation aimed at maintaining ample liquidity. Geopolitically, reports alleging Chinese cyber intrusions into U.S. congressional staff emails added another layer of U.S.–China tension, reinforcing uncertainty around tech controls, defence policy and capital flows. The impact on markets was contained for now, but the tone remains a drag on China-linked risk assets and Asia FX. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -1.2%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -1.25% Shanghai Composite +0.1%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:China warns battery sector of rising overcapacity risksIndustry ministry urges capacity optimisation and supervisionEV and energy storage batteries under closer scrutinyData-centre buildout has boosted demand but fuelled oversupplySolar sector cited as cautionary exampleChina’s industry ministry has issued a fresh warning to battery manufacturers, urging firms to rein in capacity expansion and address rising risks of overcapacity across the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, a signal that policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned about disorderly competition and margin erosion.In a statement released Thursday following a meeting earlier in the week, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said it had called on battery makers to optimise industry capacity, regulate competitive behaviour and strengthen oversight across the EV and energy storage battery supply chain. The comments were published via the ministry’s official WeChat account.The warning comes at a time when demand for energy storage batteries has surged, driven in part by the rapid global buildout of data centres and power-hungry digital infrastructure. However, the ministry cautioned that manufacturers have responded by blindly expanding production capacity, creating conditions that could lead to oversupply, falling prices and industry-wide losses.Officials explicitly drew parallels with China’s solar sector, where years of aggressive capacity expansion ultimately triggered severe price declines, collapsing margins and financial stress across the industry. That episode has become a policy touchstone for regulators seeking to prevent similar outcomes in other strategic manufacturing sectors.The message underscores a broader shift in Beijing’s industrial policy framework. While China continues to prioritise advanced manufacturing, green technology and energy transition sectors, authorities are increasingly focused on quality, profitability and sustainability, rather than headline output growth alone. Regulators have in recent months stepped up rhetoric around curbing “excessive competition” and discouraging redundant investment.For battery makers, the guidance suggests tighter scrutiny of new projects, heightened regulatory oversight and potential constraints on expansion plans, particularly for smaller or less competitive players. Larger, better-capitalised firms may ultimately benefit if policy action accelerates consolidation and restores pricing discipline.Market implications are nuanced. In the near term, the warning may weigh on sentiment toward battery and EV supply-chain stocks, especially those heavily exposed to capacity growth assumptions. Over the medium term, however, a clampdown on overcapacity could stabilise margins, support healthier industry economics and reduce the risk of a solar-style price collapse.The ministry’s intervention highlights Beijing’s intent to balance strategic ambition with financial stability as China’s battery industry enters a more mature phase. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.