This is just a post for data, I'll have details and analysis posted separately. Here we go, added:Australia CPI beats estimates, lifting RBA hike odds and boosting Aussie dollarBackground:Australia January CPI preview: core inflation steady, electricity lifts headline This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Harvard-led research suggests AI can replicate most active-fund trading patterns, leaving true alpha concentrated in a smaller set of non-routine decisions.Summary:AI model predicted 71% of fund tradesNeural network trained on 1990–2023 dataUnpredictable trades linked to outperformanceRoutine activity appears systematicLarger, competitive funds less predictableActive-fee justification under scrutiny(ps. I bolded the really interesting part below)A new academic study led by researchers at Harvard Business School suggests that much of active fund management follows patterns sophisticated algorithms can learn, raising fresh questions about the value of stock-picking fees.The working paper, titled Mimicking Finance and published via the National Bureau of Economic Research, uses a neural-network model trained on rolling five-year windows between 1990 and 2023. Drawing on fund characteristics, investor flows, stock attributes and macroeconomic data, the system was able to predict roughly 71% of mutual fund trading decisions, whether a manager would buy, sell or hold a stock over a given quarter.The findings suggest that a large share of day-to-day portfolio adjustments reflects systematic responses to flows, market signals and peer positioning rather than purely idiosyncratic insight. In effect, machines appear capable of replicating much of the industry’s common playbook.However, the study’s most revealing insight lies in what the model could not anticipate. The remaining 29% of trades, those that departed from detectable patterns, were more closely associated with outperformance. That implies that genuine alpha may reside in the smaller set of non-routine decisions that deviate from formulaic behaviour.The authors argue that machine-learning tools are better suited than traditional linear factor models to capture the complex ways managers react to shifting conditions. Yet the model predicts trade direction, not size, and further refinements are planned.Predictability also varies across managers. Larger funds, higher-fee strategies and teams operating in more competitive environments tended to be less predictable, while longer-tenured managers or those overseeing multiple products were more so.For the active management industry, already under pressure from low-cost passive products tracking benchmarks such as the S&P 500, the implications are economic rather than existential. If most routine trades can be anticipated algorithmically, fee justification may increasingly hinge on the narrower slice of genuinely discretionary decisions that deliver excess returns.The study underscores a broader distinction: while predicting market moves remains notoriously difficult, predicting professional behaviour may be far easier.Source: Bloomberg (gated) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Strategists see near-term consolidation for the Nikkei before earnings growth and foreign inflows drive a break above 60,000 by 2027.Summary:Nikkei seen at 57,500 by mid-2026Forecast lifted from November poll60,750 projected by mid-2027Foreign inflows acceleratingAI theme supportive but selectiveCorrection risk viewed as limitedJapan’s Nikkei 225 is expected to trade largely sideways in the near term before resuming its upward trajectory and breaking through the 60,000 milestone by mid-2027, according to a Reuters poll of equity strategists.The benchmark, which has risen more than 13% year-to-date, recently touched a record intraday high above 58,000 following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide snap election victory. Strong corporate earnings and expectations of supportive fiscal policy have underpinned sentiment, helping lift the median mid-2026 forecast to 57,500, up modestly from current levels but significantly higher than projections made late last year.While analysts see limited upside through June, they broadly anticipate a period of consolidation rather than a meaningful pullback. The rapid advance in recent months has heightened valuation concerns, but strategists expect time, rather than price weakness, to ease stretched conditions. By end-2026, the index is seen approaching 58,500, before climbing toward 60,750 by mid-2027.Foreign inflows remain a key pillar of the bullish medium-term view. Government data show overseas investors were net buyers of ¥1.42 trillion in Japanese equities in the week to February 14, the largest weekly inflow since October, reinforcing momentum as global allocators increase exposure. A solid domestic earnings backdrop is expected to keep attracting capital.Artificial intelligence continues to support selected sectors, particularly semiconductors, chip equipment and data-centre infrastructure, as long as US hyperscalers maintain spending. However, some technology segments, including software, have seen heavier selling amid concerns about AI-driven disruption.Looking ahead, most analysts view the risk of a 10% correction over the next three months as low. Even if US equities experience volatility, any spillover into Japan is expected to be contained.Overall, the consensus points to consolidation near record highs before a renewed earnings-driven push toward fresh milestones. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman sees Japan’s rally extending on political stability and reform momentum — but sustainable gains hinge on ROE delivery.Summary:Takaichi’s landslide boosts political stabilityHistory suggests post-election multiple expansionGovernance reform key to next legROE improvement central to re-ratingFiscal concerns easing post-electionForeign positioning improving, not stretchedReform delivery now criticalJapanese equities could have further upside following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive snap election victory, according to Bruce Kirk, Chief Japan Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs Research.Kirk argues the result is “extremely consequential” for both political stability and equity valuations. Historically, when an LDP-led coalition secures a two-thirds supermajority, markets have delivered an average 20% gain in the first three months, followed by further multiple expansion over the subsequent nine months. The key driver is reduced political risk: a strong mandate increases the likelihood of longer leadership tenure, policy continuity, and a lower equity risk premium — dynamics that typically attract foreign capital.Near term, investors will look for clarity on defence, economic security and US-Japan relations, particularly ahead of the upcoming Takaichi–Trump summit. But the more durable catalyst lies in structural reform and corporate governance. While governance reform regained momentum in 2023 and shareholder returns have surged to ¥40–45 trillion annually from ¥6–7 trillion pre-Abenomics, return on equity has stalled around 9–10%. For a sustainable valuation re-rating, Kirk says investors need tangible ROE improvement through stronger shareholder returns, growth investment, M&A consolidation and deeper restructuring.Fiscal policy remains a watchpoint. Concerns centred on a proposed temporary cut to the food consumption tax. However, the scale of Takaichi’s victory may actually reduce the risk of populist fiscal measures, easing pressure in FX and rates markets.Foreign positioning is improving but not stretched. Mutual funds remain underweight Japan, and renewed outperformance versus US equities could pull in further allocations.Risks include policy missteps that unsettle bonds or FX, unexpected leadership change, global shocks, and the absence of normal market corrections. Still, Goldman believes Japan remains in the upward phase of its cycle, with reform delivery now the critical next step.---This was interesting from Japan yesterday and has equity market implications:The Japanese Yen sinks as PM Takaichi signals opposition to further BoJ rate hikes This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Martin Schlegel is the Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB).He took over as chairman in 2024 and leads the SNB’s three-member Governing Board, which sets Switzerland’s monetary policy.He spoke Tuesday. Schlegel downplayed short-term deflation risks, keeps medium-term inflation focus, and leaves FX intervention on the table.Summary:SNB expects inflation to rise from current ultra-low levelsTemporary negative prints possible, not a policy alarmInflation at 0.1%, bottom of 0–2% target rangePolicy rate at 0%; FX intervention remains an optionUS tariffs weighing on parts of Swiss industrySchlegel said Switzerland could experience temporary months of negative inflation but stressed that such readings would not automatically trigger concern from policymakers, as the central bank remains focused on medium-term price stability.Speaking in Zurich, Schlegel noted that inflation remains extremely subdued, with January’s annual reading at just 0.1%, the lower edge of the SNB’s 0–2% target range. While acknowledging that inflationary pressures have barely shifted, he said the central bank expects price growth to pick up in the months ahead. A handful of negative prints would not constitute an alarm signal, he added, underscoring that monetary policy decisions are guided by broader trends rather than short-term fluctuations.With the policy rate currently at 0%, the SNB’s room for conventional easing is limited. Earlier this month, Schlegel described the combination of low inflation and a zero policy rate as a challenging environment. Against that backdrop, he reiterated that the SNB stands ready to intervene in foreign exchange markets if necessary to ensure price stability.On the global front, Schlegel warned that US tariffs and heightened uncertainty have weighed on economic growth, though many sectors have proven more resilient than anticipated. Around one in four Swiss companies surveyed by the SNB report negative effects from tariffs, with engineering firms among the most exposed. While some businesses have shifted parts of their production to countries facing lower US tariffs, or directly to the United States, many firms have yet to implement countermeasures.Overall, Schlegel’s remarks reinforced a steady policy stance, with the SNB prepared to act if needed but not alarmed by short-term volatility in inflation data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Via oilprice.com:--- Oil markets swung in both directions on Tuesday but ultimately closed lower as signs of improving US-Iran relations weighed on prices. WTI and Brent futures were volatile overnight, briefly edging higher during the European session amid limited oil-specific headlines. Sentiment shifted sharply, however, after Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Tehran is prepared to take whatever steps are necessary to secure a deal with Washington, while warning that a strike on Iran would be a serious gamble. The remarks pressured crude to intraday lows, with prices continuing to drift lower into the close.Earlier support had come from comments at the White House suggesting President Trump prioritises diplomacy with Iran, though force remains an option if required. On the supply side, Russia’s Transneft reportedly reduced crude intake by 250,000 barrels per day following an attack on a key pumping station. Meanwhile, Venezuela is said to be preparing larger export cargoes from March, including expanded shipments to India.Expectations I had seen:headline crude oil +1.5mn barrelsdistillates -1.6mn bblsgasolina -0.6mn bblsThis data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).It's a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agenciesWhereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week's levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The focus is the Australian CPI data for January:Australia January CPI preview: core inflation steady, electricity lifts headlineTrump will speak later. State of the Union speech. His centrepiece economic policy has completely collapsed. He's scrambling to recover:Trump considers new Section 232 tariffs after Supreme Court ruling This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices closed solidly higher today, rebounding after yesterday’s sharp declines. The S&P fell -1.04% and the NASDAQ dropped -1.12% in the prior session, but buyers stepped back in today. The S&P rose 0.77%, the NASDAQ gained 1.04%, the Dow advanced 0.76%, and the Russell 2000 led with a 1.12% increase. Risk appetite returned as traders positioned ahead of a key earnings catalyst.That catalyst comes tomorrow after the close when Nvidia reports earnings. Shares moved up 0.68% today to $192.86, bringing the year-to-date gain to 3.41%. With the stock sitting near important technical resistance, the reaction to earnings could have broader implications for overall market sentiment.Looking at the daily chart, Nvidia is pressing against a topside swing area between $193.63 and $196. That zone has acted as resistance in the past. A sustained move above it would shift the technical bias more firmly to the upside and have traders targeting the all-time high from last October at $212.19.On the downside, the most recent corrective low on February 5 came within $2 of the rising 200-day moving average before finding support. That moving average remains a key longer-term risk-defining level. Staying above it keeps the broader uptrend intact.In short, equities bounced today, but tomorrow’s Nvidia earnings could be the next shove — either fueling a breakout toward record highs or reinforcing resistance near current levels.Some big gainers today included:AMD (AMD): +8.77%Roblox (RBLX): +7.51%PayPal (PYPL): +6.74%Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT): +6.73%Intel (INTC): +5.73%Papa John’s (PZZA): +5.65%United Airlines (UAL): +5.06%Synopsys (SNPS): +4.73%Box (BOX): +4.54%Corning (GLW): +4.39%AMD (AMD) [+8.77%]: The primary driver is a multi-year deal worth up to $100 billion to supply Meta Platforms with its latest MI450 AI chips for data centers. As part of the agreement, Meta received warrants to purchase up to 160 million shares of AMD stock.PayPal (PYPL) [+6.74%]: Shares are surging due to takeover speculation that a strategic buyer or private equity firm is evaluating a bid for the company. This follows a recent leadership shakeup where Enrique Lores was named the new CEO.Corning (GLW) [+4.39%]: The stock is hitting all-time highs as analysts (UBS and Morgan Stanley) raised price targets, citing a "boom" in AI data center infrastructure. This momentum is heavily supported by a $6 billion fiber-optic deal with Meta.Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) [+6.73%]: Gains are tied to its $6 billion merger with fusion energy/AI firm TAE Technologies and recent shareholder distributions of digital tokens. Investors are also reacting to anticipation surrounding tonight's State of the Union address.Intel (INTC) [+5.73%]: Intel is benefiting from the broad tech recovery and rumors that Apple is considering using its foundry services to manufacture custom chips. The company also recently secured strategic investments from Nvidia and SoftBank This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US February consumer confidence 91.2 vs 87.0 expectedRichmond Fed composite index for February -10 versus -8 estimateBOE's Bailey: Services prices inflation has not eased as much as we thought it wouldHome Depot's Q4 earnings tell the story of a "frozen home environment"Fed's Cook: AI transition could have profound implications but it's too early to knowFed's Collins: Recent jobs data has been promisingUS December CaseShiller 20-city house price index +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expectedFed's Goolsbee optimistic there can be more cuts this year but not until inflation lowerFed's Bostic: even with rising productivity, the Fed needs to keep focus on inflationU.S. Treasury auctions off $69 billion of 2 year notes at a high yield of 3.455%Markets:Gold down $69 to $5161WTI crude oil flat at $66.30US 10-year yields up 1.1 bps to 4.04%S&P 500 up 0.8%NZD leads, JPY lagsThe Citrini rout yesterday had many of the hallmarks of a bottom in sentiment around software stocks. The panic yesterday looked like investors trying to get out at any price and it was followed up today by Anthrophic hosting a presentation that touted its partners, including some of the most-beaten up stocks over the past month. As a result, some of those names had big bounces like Thomson-Reuters up 11.5% and the software IGV ETF up 1.8%. Power and chip stocks were also strong once again and AMD rose 8% on a deal with Meta. It wasn't all cheering though as EXPD and FICO (both AI exposed names) fell badly once again. The FX market largely followed the mood in stock markets as the US dollar rallied early when stocks were flat but reversed lower as indexes climbed.In terms of economic data, the improvement in the consumer confidence report was mostly ignored and Fed commentary still leaned heavily towards sitting on the sidelines for a month or two of data.Traders are now looking toward Trump's State of the Union speech and particularly any talk about attacking Iran in it. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold prices experienced a notable pullback today, dropping approximately 1.12%. This follows a strong rally that saw the precious metal reach a daily high of $5,249.87 before rotating back toward the midpoint of its trading range at $5,167.Key Technical Levels & Price ActionThe current market structure is defined by several critical support and resistance zones that will dictate the next move:Upside Resistance & Targets: After breaking above the February 11th high of $5,116.73, the price initially pushed through the $5,235 target level. Traders are now watching to see if gold can reclaim momentum to retest that $5,235–$5,250 zone.The 61.8% Fibonacci Floor: A vital level for the bulls is the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.61. Maintaining a position above this level is essential for keeping the immediate "bullish bias" intact.Secondary Support: Below the Fibonacci level sits the previous February 11th high of $5,116. As long as the price stays above these two markers, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic.The Downside RiskIf the price fails to hold the 61.8% retracement, the technical focus shifts to the 100-hour moving average, which is currently trending around $5,081–$5,082. This moving average has historically served as a reliable "launchpad" for the market, as seen in last week's trading when prices bounced off this level multiple times before beginning their upward rotation.Summary for TradersThe takeaway for today is a "wait and see" approach regarding these support levels. If the support at $5,141 and $5,116 holds, the path of least resistance remains toward the recent highs. However, a break below these could signal a deeper correction toward the 100-hour moving average. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Latest tariff news hasn't changed outlook muchEconomy shows benign outlook with focus on inflation and wage growthFed must maintain independence to reach 2% inflation targetSolid economic growth and resilient consumer consumption attributed to healthy household spendingReduced employment growth reflects slow growth in labor supply and demandExpects pace of hiring to increase as uncertainty fades and firms adjust to Tariff environmentEffects from Tariffs expected to become more pronounced as costs pass to consumersCurrent market challenges include housing affordability and scarcity of childcareFed will use range of indicators to make decisions during data unavailabilityWe also heard from Richmond Fed President Barkin:Rate cuts so far helped support job market while waiting on inflation "last mile"Unemployment remains low by historical standards while inflation stays above targetSustained inflation miss since 2021 is taken seriously regardless of the "why"Expects economy to remain resilient in 2026 with stimulus from deregulation and tax reductionsMost firms are not currently doing layoffs at scaleRecent jump in productivity should help businesses bear higher input costsShrinking growth in labor supply is a top concern for the US economyStretched consumers are resisting attempts to pass along Tariff costsUnderlying dynamics support consumer spendingBoth Collins and Barkin maintain a cautious but generally optimistic outlook on the US economy, emphasizing that while a "soft landing" is in sight, the final push to 2% inflation remains a challenge. Collins highlights the transition to a new tariff environment and notes that hiring may pick up once firms adjust, though she warns of increased costs for consumers. Barkin views recent interest rate cuts as "insurance" for the labor market and suggests that strong productivity and upcoming fiscal stimulus from tax refunds will support growth in 2026. Both officials agree that the labor market remains resilient despite a recent lack of official data during the government shutdown.The market is pricing in a 54% chance of a rate cut in June, when Warsh takes over as Fed Chair. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

USD/CAD momentarily touched the highest level since January 26 today before fading back to unchanged on the day. The pair has been climbing for the past two weeks as the US dollar recovers.This is an interesting level for the pair as it tests resistance from the Feb 5 high of 1.3724.Some things to consider:Oil prices have rebounded to $66 but much of that is an Iran war premium that's highly variable depending on what comes next in that sagaThe US dollar has also attracted a war safety premium, though the size of it is tough to pin down and likely accounts for less than 50 pips in USD/CAD.Equity market have grown fragile and that's a potential tailwind for the US dollarCanadian stock markets continue to hit records, fuelled by oil, gold and banksUSMCA trade negotiations loomOn the latter note there are some developments as a report says South Bow Corp (a spinoff from TC Energy) is considering reviving part of the Keystone XL pipeline from Montana to Wyoming."South Bow is now evaluating an expansion that would leverage existing infrastructure and permitted corridors in Canada to connect with downstream pipelines in the US," the report says.Trump has long been a proponent for the pipeline and also likes projects with large dollar amounts attached. That could be leveraged to close an extension of the USMCA trade deal, or at least the US-Canada portion. Canadian regulators today also certified the Gulf Stream jets that Trump previously lamented.As a result of the Supreme Court decision, Canadian tariffs fell -- though much of trade is still exempted under USMCA. For Canada, the main irritants are steel, lumber and aluminum sectoral tariffs. In the autumn, it looked like a deal was close but talks broke down.If a deal can be struck -- and I think it will be -- then there will be some investment clarity for Canada at time when commodities are in fashion again. In short, much can go right for Canada this year once the tariffs clear. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD has rebounded in the North American session after sellers failed to sustain a break below the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.5945. The pair briefly dipped to 0.5943, but the move lacked follow-through, triggering a bounce that shifted short-term momentum back toward the buyers.That recovery gathered pace once price pushed back above the 100-hour moving average at 0.5966. The pair is now attempting to establish support above that level. Holding above the 100-hour MA would strengthen the near-term bullish bias and suggest that the earlier downside probe was a failed break rather than the start of a deeper correction.If buyers can maintain control above 0.5966, the next upside target comes in near the 0.6000 psychological level, which aligns closely with the 200-hour moving average at 0.5998. Notably, yesterday’s high reached 0.6002, making that zone an important resistance cluster. A sustained move above 0.6000 would open the door for additional upside momentum and signal a shift toward stronger bullish control.The broader tone has been supported by improving risk sentiment. U.S. equities are firmer, with the S&P 500 up 0.74%, the NASDAQ modestly higher, and the Russell 2000 leading with a 1.26% gain. The equity strength is encouraging risk-on flows, which tend to benefit higher-beta currencies like the New Zealand dollar.Bias: Short-term bullish while above 0.5966. Support: 0.5966 (100-hour MA), then 0.5945. Resistance: 0.5998–0.6002 (200-hour MA / prior high). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Copper and everything related to it is rallying once again today. It's a theme I've been writing about for years.The Scotiabank metals team put out their latest valuation check on the base metals mining space and the takeaway is that things are starting to look reasonable — but not cheap.Cu miners are now trading at an average implied copper price of $6.48/lb, which is a record high in absolute terms but only a 12% premium to spot at $5.78/lb. That 12% premium has come up from just 3% at the start of the year, but it's still well below the three-year average of 19%. So the market is pricing in some optimism, but nothing crazy.The names Scotiabank likes on a relative value basis are First Quantum (FM) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) — both look meaningfully undervalued versus peers. On the other side, Antofagasta (ANTO) and Southern Copper (SCCO) look stretched, and Scotiabank rates both Sector Underperform.What's interesting is the disconnect between spot valuations and Scotiabank's own price deck. At spot, the large/mid-cap copper producers trade at 8.4x 2026 EV/EBITDA and a 1.22x P/NAV — both reasonable. But plug in Scotiabank's lower commodity assumptions and those numbers balloon to 9.9x and 1.99x respectively. That tells you the market is broadly pricing in copper staying elevated.Scotiabank's price deck vs. spot:The gap between spot and the price deck is massive in gold and silver especially. Gold at $5,099 spot versus a $4,600 deck for 2026 and a $3,400 long-term assumption — that's a big bet that the current rally fades. Silver is even more dramatic: $84.40 spot versus $65 next year and $40 long-term. Copper is more modest — $5.78 spot vs $5.50 for 2026 — but they're still looking for a grind lower to $4.50 long-term.The broader point about volatility is worth flagging too. Mining equities are swinging 5% a day right now, driven partly by AI/data centre sentiment bleeding into the commodities space. That kind of volatility creates opportunities if you have conviction on the commodity outlook.Target changes: FM to C$46 from C$45, TECK.B to C$80 from C$75, LUN to C$36 from C$35, IVN cut to C$20 from C$21.The TECK target bump reflects the implied Anglo American takeover value — that story continues to be the key driver there.Here is a look at the copper ETF COPX, which is up 2.6% today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

High-yield 3.455%WI level at the time of the auctionTail 0.1 basis points versus 6 month average of -0.5 basis pointsBid to cover 2.63X vs 6 mother average of 2.63XDealers 9.81% versus 6 month average of 10.7%Directs 34.3% versus 6 month average of 32.0% Indirects 55.9% versus 6 month average of 57.4%The auction was near the WI level. The Bid to cover was right on the 6 month average. The domestic buyers were marginally higher than the six-month average while the international buyers were marginally lower than the six-month average. The dealers were saddled with slightly less than what has been the average. Overall, the auction grade: BThe US treasury will auction off 5 and 7 year notes tomorrow and Thursday respectively. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month -6Details:Composite manufacturing index fell to -10 in February from -6 in January. Estimate was -8Shipments dropped to -13 from -5 last monthNew orders decreased to -9 from -6 lat monthEmployment edged down to -7 from -6 last monthLocal business conditions index declined to -15 from -8 last monthPrices paid and received growth rates slowed in February to 6.52 from 7.06 last monthPrices received also slowed to 4.25 from 4.58 last monthCapital expenditures rose to -5 from -16 last monthServices expenditures -20 versus -16 last month Firms expect further moderation in price growth over the next 12 months**6 month forward expectations:Future local business conditions improved to 22 from 19 Future shipments and new orders eased slightly but remained solidly positive. Shipments fell to 29 from 34. New orders fell to 35 from 36 las montEmployment expectations rose to 6 from 2 last monthThe regional index remains in the negative for the index. The 3 month average has not been above the 0 level since 2022. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index serves as a monthly "pulse check" for the industrial sector across the Mid-Atlantic region, covering Maryland, Virginia, the Carolinas, D.C., and most of West Virginia. It is a composite indicator derived from three key pillars: new orders, shipments, and employment levels. A reading above zero indicates expansion, while a reading below zero signals contraction. Because this district represents a diverse slice of American industry, the index is widely watched by economists and investors as a "canary in the coal mine" for the broader U.S. manufacturing economy, often providing early signals of shifting demand or supply chain trends before national data is released. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was the lowest reading since 2014 at 84.5Details:Present situation 120.0 vs 113.7 prior Expectations 72.0 vs 65.1 prior Jobs plentiful 28.0% vs 25.8% priorJobs hard to get 20.6% vs 20.8% priorAmong demographic groups, confidence on a six-month moving average basis ticked upward in February for consumers under age 35, which continued to be the most optimistic group. Confidence edged down for respondents 35 and older.I find this something of a narrative violation:The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index traced a dramatic arc through 2025, defined by a steep erosion of sentiment tied to tariff uncertainty, a brief mid-year recovery, and a renewed slide into year-end and an 11-year low in January 2026.Confidence began the year at its highest point, then fell for five consecutive months from February through June. The decline accelerated sharply in March and April as tariff fears intensified. By April, the index had plunged to 86.0 — levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic — with the Expectations Index cratering to 54.4, its lowest since October 2011. Nearly a third of consumers expected fewer jobs ahead, approaching levels last seen during the Great Recession, and expectations for future income turned negative for the first time in five years. The decline cut across all age groups, income brackets, and political affiliations.May brought a notable 12.3-point rebound to 98.0 — the largest monthly gain in four years — fueled by the May 12 U.S.-China tariff pause. The improvement was broad-based, though the Expectations Index remained below 80, the threshold historically associated with recession risk.That recovery proved short-lived. Confidence resumed declining from the summer onward, falling for five straight months through December. By year-end, the index stood at 89.1, with the Present Situation Index dropping sharply to 116.8 as views on business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024. The Expectations Index held at a weak 70.7, marking 11 consecutive months below the recession-warning threshold of 80. Write-in responses continued to be dominated by concerns about prices, tariffs, and politics, though mentions of personal finances, immigration, and war increased into December.January 2026 brought a further 9.7-point plunge to 84.5 — driven by a near-10-point drop in the Present Situation Index — suggesting the cautious consumer mood that defined 2025 has carried firmly into the new year. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Goods price inflation was lower than expected, possibly reflecting China exportsLast week's headline inflation was pretty much where we thought we'd bePill:Bearing down on inflationary pressures remains necessary This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tech stocks wobble while consumer electronics thriveThe US stock market showcases a mix of performances today, with notable fluctuations in the technology and consumer electronics sectors. Investors at InvestingLive.com should remain astute as dynamic market forces present both opportunities and risks.? Technology Sector: Struggling for StabilitySoftware and Semiconductors: A difficult day for tech giants with Microsoft (MSFT) seeing a decline of 0.57%. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) also fell by 0.73%, reflecting broader concerns in the semiconductor space. However, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) bucks the trend with a significant gain of 6.33%, fueling some optimism.Software Infrastructure: Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) witnessed declines of 1.66% and 1.94%, respectively, contributing to a tepid mood within this segment.? Consumer Electronics Surges AheadApple (AAPL) leads the charge with a robust increase of 1.53%, highlighting strength in the consumer electronics domain. This performance underscores a promising outlook as Apple continues to captivate market interest.The consumer cyclical sector saw mixed results with Amazon (AMZN) dipping by 0.56%, reflecting some retail segment concerns.? Communication Services and Healthcare InsightsCommunication Services: Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META) encounter moderate declines of 0.88% and 0.93%, respectively, signifying challenges in the digital space.Healthcare: Lilly (LLY) drops by 1.32%, hinting at some volatility in the pharmaceutical arena.? Market Mood and Strategic InsightsThe overall market sentiment remains mixed. The consumer electronics sector's resilience offers a bright spot amidst the tech sector's challenges. Investors may consider calibrating their portfolios to leverage the growth in consumer electronics while remaining cautious about potential downsides within technology.Strategic movements into well-performing stocks like Apple might provide stability amid volatility. Staying informed with real-time updates and analyses on InvestingLive.com can pinpoint evolving trends and lucrative opportunities in today's tumultuous market landscape. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.