There is the Strait of Hormuz and then there is domestic production. In the current week, the Baker Hughes rig count fell -3 at 545. Looking at the pieces:Oil rigs aree unchanged at 411Natural Gas is down -3 at 127.Total rigs -3 at 545.Crude oil is is trading up $0.57 at $98.45. However for the week, the price is down $-13.78 or -12.31%Looking at the hourly chart, the swing area and falling 100 and 200 hour MAs are providing upside resistance between 101.14 to 103.57. Stay below keeps the sellers in play/control in the short term. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Fed nominee Kevin Warsh nomination hearing scheduled for next week is to be delayed. This is according to the New York Post. No new hearing date scheduled yet Delay due to Senate Banking Committee awaiting required paperwork Committee must give at least one week’s notice before holding the hearing Deadline to proceed as planned was missed (paperwork not submitted in time) Issue described as a “paperwork delay” tied to complex financial disclosures Complexity stems from Warsh’s high net worth Similar delay previously occurred with SEC Chair Paul Atkin Kevin Warsh married to billionaire heiress Jane Lauder (≈$1.9B net worth) Past disclosures showed ~1,200 financial assets, mostly tied to his wife Worked 15 years at Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller) after leaving the FedSen. Thom Tillis has pledged to block any of Trump’s Fed chair nominees until the investigation into Jerome Powell is resolved, adding a key political hurdle to the process. At the same time, a US district judge rejected the administration’s request to revisit subpoenas targeting the Fed and Powell, though US Attorney Jeanine Pirro plans to appeal. Despite these challenges, NEC Director Kevin Hassett said he remains highly confident Kevin Warsh will ultimately become Fed chair. In the meantime, Powell indicated he would serve as “chairman pro tem” if no successor is confirmed by May 15 and plans to stay on the board until the investigation concludes, with the possibility of remaining as a governor through 2028. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. The gains were led by Italy's FTSE MIB which is closing just below its all-time high price reached back to 2000 at 48909.04.Spain's Ibex close at 18204.31, which is getting close to its all-time high close of 18573.83. A look at the daily closes showsGerman DAX (DEU40): -0.01% France's CAC 40 (CAC40): +0.17% UK's FTSE 100 (UKX): -0.03% Spain's IBEX 35 (IBC): +0.55% Italy's FTSE MIB (FTMIB): +0.59%for the trading week, the indices are all higher: German DAX, +2.74%France's CAC, +3.73%.UK's FTSE 100 +1.57%Spain's Ibex, +3.69%Italy's FTSE MIB, +4.35% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The S&P index has dipped into negative territory with the price is now down 5 points or -0.08% at 6819.25. The low price reached 6818.42. The NASDAQ index is still higher by 66 points or 0.29% but trading at session lows. The Dow industrial average is down 223 points or -0.47%.The S&P index is still above its 100 day moving average at 6804, while the NASDAQ index is back below its 100 day moving average at 22900.53. The S&P has been up for 7 days in a row.Some losers include:Snowflake (SNOW): -8.21% Palo Alto Networks (PANW): -7.38% Zoom Video (ZM): -6.72% Figma (FIG): -5.97% Cadence Design (CDNS): -5.38% Intuit (INTU): -5.24% CrowdStrike (CRWD): -4.48% Synopsys (SNPS): -3.89% Salesforce (CRM): -3.84%Some of the winners today:Nebius NV (NBIS): +6.89% Super Micro Computer (SMCI): +6.42% Marvell (MRVL): +6.12% Broadcom (AVGO): +4.72% First Solar (FSLR): +3.79% AMD (AMD): +3.68% Ciena Corp (CIEN): +3.14% Barrick Mining (B): +2.46% Vertiv Holdings (VRT): +2.36% NVIDIA (NVDA): +2.36% GE Vernova (GEV): +2.23% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

In an interview with the New York PostPresident Donald Trump said US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” in case strikes on Iran resume Warned military action will follow if peace talks fail Said outcome of negotiations should be known within ~24 hours Peace talks taking place in Pakistan (Islamabad) following a two-week cease-fire US delegation includes JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner Iran expected to be represented by Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf US demands include: Hand over ~1,000 pounds of enriched uranium Keep the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping End support for regional proxy groups Address ballistic missile program Iran maintains it has a right to enrich uranium Iran seeking lifting of US sanctions Strait of Hormuz only partially reopened; limited ship traffic since cease-fire Trump says reopening the strait is a critical condition for any deal Trump expressed distrust of Iran, citing conflicting statements on nuclear intentionsThe clock is ticking on this one. The U.S. is heading into talks with Iran, but at the same time, Trump is making it clear the military option is loaded and ready to go if things fall apart. The key sticking points are uranium, the Strait of Hormuz, and broader security issues, and there’s still a wide gap between the two sides. So while there is a cease-fire and negotiations are underway (for 2-weeks or so they say), the market should understand this is far from resolved — and the next 24 hours could quickly shift the story back toward escalation if a deal isn’t reached. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The geopolitical tension continues with reports that Trump had a tense call with Israel Netanyahu on Lebanon. Trump wants Israel to slow down its bombings on Lebanon while negotiations for a cease-fire continue with Iran. Netanyahu does not want to stop the bombing. In other geopolitical news:Iran also wants the release of blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.Kuwait says Iranian attacks overnight targeted National Guard facilities, caused injuries to a number of personnel, dealt with a total of 7 drone incursions in the last 24 hours.Iranian military said that his forces had their finger on the trigger and remain fully ready due to the Israeli and the US failure to keep to their commitments of the ceasefire.Meanwhile VP Vance warned Iran that Washington is “willing to extend the open hand” in this weekend’s negotiations but warned Tehran not to “try to play us.”:Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanese officials to stop what he called “free concessions” to Israel, vowing the group’s resistance would continue “until the last breath.” He framed the conflict as a unified national effort and dismissed Israeli threats as ineffective, while warning that any escalation—especially large troop deployments—would lead to heavy losses. The price of crude oil is trading up $0.68 at $98.58. Although that is well off the high price of $117.63 reached on Tuesday's trade, the price remains stubbornly near the $100 level. Just prior to the war starting on February 28, the low price reached $63.60. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

In an unusual post on TruthSocial, Pres. Trump says: Shares of Palantir reached a new low going back to June 2025 today at $122.68. The price is now trading at $128.20. The high reached $129.17.It is great Trump has the time to post on his stock picks, with all the other stuff going. Amazing. Like never seen before. /sInsider trading used to be a no-no, but it is becoming more and more acceptable. Go figure.Bud Fox is on it. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewToday's stock market heatmap reveals a notable upswing in the semiconductor sector, with major players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) leading the charge. Nvidia is up by 2.22% and Broadcom by an impressive 5.45%, signaling strong investor confidence in this high-tech segment. Meanwhile, consumer cyclicals also see gains, particularly with Amazon (AMZN) increasing by 2.33%, reflecting positive sentiment in retail dynamics.Conversely, the consumer defensive sector faces challenges, with Walmart (WMT) down by 1.49% and Costco (COST) sliding 2.33%. These figures suggest possible concerns over consumer spending or supply chain pressures affecting staple goods.In the communication services sector, Google (GOOGL) maintains a modest rise of 0.27%, while Meta (META) outpaces with a 1.07% increase, showcasing continued resilience in digital advertising and social media.Market Mood and TrendsThe overall market vibe appears optimistic with selective caution. The strong performance in semiconductors may be driven by technological advancements and increased demand for high-performance computing. On the other hand, the mixed outcomes in other areas, such as the flat movement in financials, underscore varying investor priorities and uncertainties.Investors seem responsive to tech-driven growth opportunities while exercising prudence in sectors closely tied to consumer spendings, such as consumer defensives and healthcare.Strategic RecommendationsWith semiconductors showcasing robust growth, investors may consider increasing exposure to this sector while staying informed on tech developments that could influence market dynamics. Adding key players like Nvidia and Broadcom to portfolios could capitalize on continued industry momentum.Monitoring communication services is also prudent, as the sector holds robust potential for revenue growth through digital ad spending and evolving online platforms. Allocating investments towards Google and Meta might be beneficial for those seeking long-term growth and innovation.Conversely, keeping an eye on sectors exhibiting volatility, such as consumer defensives, could help mitigate risks. A diversified approach may be prudent to weather potential fluctuations across industries.For more profound insights and real-time updates, visit InvestingLive.com and stay ahead in navigating today’s complex market landscape. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD is pushing to a new session high following weaker-than-expected data from the University of Michigan. Sentiment dropped to a fresh record low at 47.6 (vs 52.0 expected), while 1-year inflation expectations jumped sharply to 4.8% from 3.8%. Ongoing tensions tied to the Iran conflict are clearly weighing on consumer confidence and shaping the inflation outlook.From a technical perspective, the move higher is now testing an important zone. On the 4-hour chart, price is extending into a swing area between 1.1726 and 1.1741. Adding to that importance, the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range comes in at 1.17443, creating a key confluence area.If buyers can push and hold above that zone, the next upside targets come into focus between 1.1765 and 1.1778—another swing area that could act as the next ceiling.On the downside, today’s low briefly dipped below the 100-day moving average at 1.1688, but importantly held above the 200-day moving average at 1.1671. Those moving averages remain key barometers for bias. Holding above and rotating higher keeps buyers more in control and tilts the bias to the upside.Key levels to watch:Upside targets: 1.1726–1.1741 → 1.17443 (50% midpoint) → 1.1765–1.1778 Support/risk: 100-day MA at 1.1688, then 200-day MA at 1.1671 Bottom line: Momentum has shifted back to the upside on weaker sentiment data. Staying above the 100/200-day MAs keeps buyers in control, with a break above 1.1744 opening the door for further gains. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 53.3Consumer Sentiment 47.6 vs 52.0 estimate. Worst on record. Year on year -8.8%Current conditions 50.1 versus 55.8 last month.Year on year -16.2%Expectations and 46.1 versus 51.7 last month. Year on Year -2.5%1 year inflation expectations 4.8% versus 3.8% last month5 year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.2% last monthNeedless to say, the war in Iran is having its impact on the survey data. The data is the worst on record.When you go to war. When gas prices spike higher ($4.15 is the National average now - from $2.89 before the war). When the end to the war is unknown, the consumer sentiment suffers.Inflation is simply too high and going higher. 2% target is now a long way away and with it, go hopes even for a Warsh cut when he takes over the Fed. Having said that, survey data can be very fickle and move around. Nevertheless, the confidence decline is real, and people know it by going to the gas pump. If this price at the pump is to go back down, it will be "happy days again", but until then the consumer will worry.If there is any bright spot, the 5 year inflation expectation only moved up to 3.4% from 3.2%. The 1-year inflation expectation was not so good with a 1% jump to 4.8%.Comments from Director Joanne Hsu:Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values. Buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened, again on the basis of high prices. Open ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy. Note that 98% of interviews were completed prior to the April 7th announcement of a temporary cease-fire. Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated.Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025 (see chart, black dashed line and black circle). The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2% last month to 3.4% this month, the highest reading since November 2025. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.1%Ex-transport +1.2% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.5%)Revisions to durable goods orders:Orders -1.3% vs -1.4% prelimEx-transport +0.9% vs +0.8% prelimCapital goods orders nondefense ex-air +0.7% vs +0.6% prelimCapital goods shipments nondefense ex-air +1.4% vs +1.3% prelimThis is a solid report with the ex-transport number looking particularly good, but it's a third-tier economic indicator.The U.S. factory orders report, officially known as the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report, is published monthly by the Census Bureau, typically about five weeks after the reference month. It provides a comprehensive look at demand across the entire manufacturing sector, covering both durable and non-durable goods. The report is closely watched by economists and market participants as a gauge of industrial activity and business investment trends.One important feature of the factory orders report is that it includes revisions to the advance durable goods data released about two weeks earlier. The preliminary durable goods figures often attract significant market attention on their own, but the factory orders release refines those estimates with more complete survey responses. This means traders and analysts revisit their initial assessments once the revised numbers are in hand, particularly for the volatile transportation and defense categories.The report breaks down new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories, offering a layered view of manufacturing momentum. Core capital goods orders — excluding aircraft and defense — are especially valued as a proxy for business spending plans.In recent years the report has reflected the broader push-and-pull of post-pandemic normalization. Factory orders surged through much of 2021 and 2022 as supply chains strained to meet reopening demand, then moderated as interest rate hikes cooled goods spending. Through 2024 and into early 2025, readings were mixed, with periodic boosts from large aircraft and defense contracts offsetting softer demand in categories like machinery and primary metals, leaving the manufacturing sector in a holding pattern as businesses navigated an uncertain trade and policy environment. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF is trading to fresh session lows heading into the weekend, reaching its lowest level since March 24. The downside momentum is gaining traction as the price continues to move further away from the 100-day moving average at 0.7886.Earlier this week, the pair dipped below that moving average on Wednesday and again yesterday, but sellers struggled to sustain momentum near the 38.2% retracement at 0.7873. That hesitation is no longer evident. Today’s price action has pushed decisively below both the 100-day MA and the 38.2% level, with increased downside momentum.That shift now redefines those levels—0.7873 to 0.7886—as a clear topside risk zone. As long as the price stays below that area, sellers remain in control and can continue to lean against it as a risk-defining ceiling.Looking lower, the next downside targets come into focus:0.7834–0.7840: Swing area support (former resistance in early March, turned support after the March 12 breakout) 0.78216: 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range Bottom line: Sellers are making a stronger play as momentum builds below key technical levels. Staying below the 100-day MA keeps the bearish bias intact, with downside targets at 0.7835 and 0.78216. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The broader US stock indices are set to open modestly higher with the NASDAQ up 60 points in premarket trading and the S&P index up around 10 points. Yesterday, the S&P closed above its 100 day moving average for the 1st time since March 4. That moving average currently comes in at 6804.01. The closing level yesterday was at 6824.66. Staying above that moving average is more bullish technically. The price has closed below that key moving average for 23 consecutive days.For the NASDAQ index, the price remained below the 100 day moving average at 22900.39 at the close yesterday. The closing level yesterday was at 22822.42 – around 78 points short of the moving average level. With the premarket price up around 60 points, the index will still be short of the key technical target, but within shouting distance. Getting stay above that level would be a positive from a technical perspective. The price has closed below its 100 day moving average for 40 consecutive days (since February 10). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Tehran divided over delegation powersIRGC demands hardline security chief join U.S.-Iran peace talksIranian negotiators resist military pressure to include Zolghadr in teamIRGC demands that its missile program remain off Islamabad agendaInternal rift threatens Iran’s unified front ahead of US negotiationsPower struggle in Tehran as IRGC moves to cage diplomatic delegationIran International reports that on the eve of the negotiations between the Islamic Republic and the United States in Islamabad, a severe disagreement has emerged among senior government officials in Iran regarding the composition and powers of the negotiating delegation.Along those lines, the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC has called for the inclusion of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, in the negotiating delegation. This is a demand that has met with resistance from the negotiating team, who consider Zolghadr to lack the necessary experience for these strategic negotiations. In addition, the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC and the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force have emphasized that the dispatched delegation must refrain from any negotiations regarding the Islamic Republic's missile program.Note that Iran International is an explicitly regime-opposed publication so this report should be taken with a grain of salt.For now, reports say that Iran's delegation has arrived in Pakistan and that a US delegation led byJD Vance is on the way. WTI crude oil is down 14-cents to $97.90 on the day, so there is some optimism that we make progress towards a deal.Today's trade is likely to be about position squaring into the weekend because it's not clear if we get progress or a breakdown in talks. For me, the two week timeline is extremely tight to get real progress as these things often take months. I also worry that Trump's threatening and maximalist style makes for fraught negotiations.That said, JD Vance has been said to oppose the war from the start so it may be in his interest to finesse a deal and make real concessions in order to make that happen. On the Iran side, they're digging in on Lebanon so that remains the place to watch. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior -83.9KEmployment change 14.1K vs 150K Estimate unemployment rate 6.7% versus 6.8% expected. Prior 6.7%full-time employment change -1.1K vs -108.4K last month part-time employment change 15.2K vs +24.5 K last montparticipation rate 64.9% versus 64.9% last monthAverage hourly wages among employees were up 4.7% on a year-over-year basis in March, the highest growth rate since October 2024 (not seasonally adjusted). Year-over-year growth in average hourly wages had previously hovered between 3.2% and 3.9% from January 2025 to February 2026. Looking at the components, some of the details:Other services employment rose +15K (+1.9%) in March, reversing a similar-sized decline in February Industry includes repair and maintenance servicesYear-over-year: little changed in this sector Natural resources employment increased +10K (+3.0%) Nearly half of gains came from Alberta (+4.5K, +3.2%)Year-over-year: little changed nationally and in Alberta Finance, insurance, real estate, rental & leasing fell -11K (-0.8%) First notable monthly decline since November 2023Health care & social assistance: little changed in March But +94K (+3.3%) YoY, the largest annual job gain among industries Manufacturing posted the largest annual decline -44K (-2.4%) YoYMore Details from Canada Statistics:Across age groups: Core-age (25–54): unemployment steady at 5.8% Youth unemployment: 13.8%, still elevated Age 55+: 4.9%, down YoY Wage growth accelerated: +4.7% YoY to $37.73 (strongest since Oct 2024) Underlying wage growth closer to ~3.6% after adjusting for composition Sector breakdown: Gains: Other services: +15K (+1.9%) Natural resources: +10K (+3.0%) Losses: Finance/real estate: -11K (-0.8%)YoY trends: Health care: +94K (+3.3%) (strongest growth) Manufacturing: -44K (-2.4%) (largest decline) Regional trends: Weakness: British Columbia: -19K (-0.7%), unemployment up to 6.7% Strength: Manitoba: +11K (+1.5%) Saskatchewan: +5.8K (+0.9%), lowest unemployment at 5.0% Nova Scotia: +3.9K (+0.7%) Ontario: steady employment, but higher unemployment (7.6%) and regional weakness Quebec: employment steady, unemployment fell to 5.4%Bottom line: Labor market is stabilizing after early-year weakness Unemployment elevated vs pre-COVID due to slower hiring, not layoffs Wage growth firming, which could keep inflation pressures sticky Overall tone: soft but not deteriorating—a market lacking momentum but holding together for nowThe USDCAD moved lower and broke below the 200 day MA and the 50% of the move up from the March 23 low. Both came in at 1.3816. However, the low from yesterday could not be broken and the price has rebounded back above the key technical levels.For background, the Labour Force Survey, published monthly by Statistics Canada, provides comprehensive data on employment, unemployment, and labour force participation across Canada. Released on the first or second Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. ET, the report surveys approximately 56,000 households and tracks employment changes by industry, province, full-time versus part-time status, and demographic characteristics. The survey measures not only net job creation but also unemployment rates, wage growth, and labour force participation, offering insights into the health of Canada's economy. The data is closely monitored by the Bank of Canada when setting monetary policy and by economists assessing economic conditions. At the moment, there are no further cuts priced in for the Bank of Canada. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.4% y/yCPI 0.9% m/m vs +0.9% expectedPrior +0.3% m/mNon-seasonally adjusted, unrounded +1.05% vs +0.47% priorCore CPI 2.6% vs 2.7% y/y expectedPrior core 2.5%Core CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.9% expectedPrior core +0.2%Real weekly earnings -0.9% vs +0.1% priorCPI Supercore M/M +0.18% vs +0.350% priorCPI Supercore Y/Y 3.14% vs 2.746% priorEnergy index +10.2%The economists did a good job of forecasting the rise in energy prices. Gasoline prices were up 21.9% in this report but note that US gasoline prices are up 40% compared to pre-war so there is still more in the pipeline. Of course, with a ceasefire that will reverse over time.Fed pricing continues to show no moves this year. There was some modest USD weakness on the release but it's mostly faded. The lower core number is likely behind the drop in the dollar.Consumer price inflation has been on a gradual but uneven path lower since peaking above 9% in mid-2022. The Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening campaign succeeded in pulling headline CPI back below 3% by late 2024, but the final stretch toward the 2% target has proven stubborn, particularly in services.Shelter costs, which make up roughly a third of the CPI basket, have been the single largest contributor to above-target inflation. Although private-sector rent measures have been cooling for over a year, the BLS methodology captures lease renewals with a significant lag. Most economists expect shelter disinflation to continue feeding through, but the pace has repeatedly disappointed.The March report marks a sharp departure from the benign readings of recent months, driven almost entirely by energy. Economists largely nailed the call — gasoline surged 21.2% in the month, the largest monthly increase since the series began in 1967, as the Iran conflict sent crude prices spiking. But the pipeline isn't empty. US gasoline prices remain roughly 40% above pre-war levels, meaning further pass-through into upcoming reports is likely unless the ceasefire holds and prices retrace. If it does hold, that energy shock will reverse over the coming months, but with a lag.Underneath the energy noise, the core picture was encouraging. Core CPI rose just 0.2% for the second straight month, and the supercore measure — stripping out food, energy, and shelter — printed a soft 0.18%, well below February's 0.350%. That deceleration will be welcome at the Fed, though policymakers will want to see whether the energy shock bleeds into broader prices before drawing conclusions. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The markets are treading water as the North American session gets underway, with little conviction across the major asset classes ahead of key economic releases. Oil prices are marginally higher—up about $0.25—but the move lacks momentum, reflecting a market still balancing geopolitical uncertainty and most importantly, the opening or not of the Strait of Hormuz.In the rates market, the yield curve is showing a modest steepening bias, with short-end yields inching lower while longer-dated yields drift slightly higher. That dynamic suggests a market that is not yet ready to fully commit to a policy path, instead waiting for clearer signals from incoming data.Equities are similarly subdued. The major US indices are hovering near unchanged levels, caught between competing forces of resilient economic data and lingering uncertainty around inflation and central bank policy. There is no strong directional push, reinforcing the idea that traders are in a holding pattern as they await the next catalyst.In the foreign exchange market, the USD is mixed. The greenback is firmer against the JPY, supported in part by the uptick in longer-term yields, while slipping modestly against the EUR and GBP. However, the moves are relatively contained, underscoring the broader theme of consolidation and indecision across markets.In the video above, I walk through the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. The focus remains on identifying the bias, defining the key risk levels traders are leaning against, and outlining the upside and downside targets that will shape the next directional move. As always, those technical levels serve as the barometer for buyers and sellers—levels where risk can be defined and where momentum either builds or fades.Looking ahead, the calendar is front-loaded with important data that could provide that needed catalyst. At 8:30 AM ET, the US CPI report takes center stage. Expectations are for a 0.9% rise in the headline month-over-month figure, a notable jump from the 0.3% increase last month, while core CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% versus 0.2% previously. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected at 3.3%, with core at 2.7%. Any deviation from those expectations—especially on the core side—could quickly shift rate expectations and, in turn, drive moves in yields, equities, and the USD.At the same time, Canada releases its March employment report. Job growth is expected to rebound modestly with a gain of 15.0K following last month’s sharp decline of 83.9K. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up slightly to 6.8% from 6.7%. Traders will also be watching the composition of employment after last month’s notable drop in full-time jobs (-108.4K) contrasted with a rise in part-time positions (+24.5K), a mix that raised some concerns about underlying labor market strength.Later in the morning, at 10:00 AM ET, US factory orders for February are expected to decline by 0.2% after a 0.1% increase in January. With preliminary durable goods orders already showing a -1.4% drop, the revision and the broader factory orders data will provide additional insight into the health of the manufacturing sector.Bottom line: Markets are in a wait-and-see mode, with price action subdued across assets. The technical levels in the major currency pairs remain the key guideposts for traders, but it is the upcoming data—particularly CPI—that has the potential to break the current stalemate and set the next directional tone. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

If inflation stays elevated for longer than anticipated, we would hold steady until we know we are getting the inflation job doneWe had work to do before the oil shock and now there's more work to doPersistently higher oil prices would hurt inflation but also hurt growthWe're already seeing higher prices show through to the economy with people pulling back on travel because they are worried about higher costsExtremely important to bring inflation to 2% but doing it at the expense of jobs puts families behind the 8 ballUS economic fundamentals solid, labor in a steady placeHigh CPI readings won't be a surprise to anyoneThe real question is: does the ceasefire persist and if it does, then CPI will be old newsDaly, like the rest of us, is watching the Middle East and trying to figure out what comes next. Today, WTI crude is up 7-cents to $97.93. We get March CPI at the bottom of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.CPI Y/Y4.0% (2%)3.7% (2%)3.5% (5%) 3.4% (37%) - consensus3.3% (33%)3.2% (7%)3.1% (2%)3.0% (5%)2.6% (5%)2.4% (2%)CPI M/M1.7% (2%) 1.5% (2%)1.2% (2%)1.1% (3%)1.0% (38%) - consensus0.9% (33%)0.8% (13%)0.7% (2%)0.6% (3%)0.4% (2%)Core CPI Y/Y3.0% (2%)2.8% (12%)2.7% (65%) - consensus2.6% (21%)Core CPI M/M0.4% (17%)0.3% (61%) - consensus0.2% (22%) Given the focus on the negotiations and the fact that an increase in March is widely because of the war, the market will likely look through today's data as everything hinges on the US-Iran talks anyway. We can see there's a huge dispersion in forecasts for the headline CPI, but a more contained view on Core CPI as it excludes food and energy prices. The Fed is in a hard neutral stance but has opened the door for potential tightening in case inflation expectations start to drift higher and the war drags on longer than expected. The market is pricing in 7 bps of easing by year-end, so there's no rate hike or rate cut expected in 2026. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices dived on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been saying was part of the ceasefire agreement.The good news is that Iran held off from retaliating ahead of the peace talks in Islamabad this weekend. But the uncertainty has been keeping the markets in check, nonetheless. The Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed and the Iranians are just letting a limited number of ships to cross it. Trump has already complained about this on Truth Social, but for now both sides are holding off from breaking the ceasefire. Everything hinges on these peace talks as the restart of the war would trigger another surge in oil prices. On the other hand, a peace deal would lead to another selloff in crude oil potentially bringing prices back to pre-war levels. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil bounced around the 93.00 support zone as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the highs. The sellers will want to see the price falling below the support to pile in for a drop into the 78.00 support next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price has been rejecting the support and the lower bound of the channel as the buyers continue to pile in for a rally into new highs. We can expect the buyers to continue to lean on the support and the bottom trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will need a break lower to open the door for new lows.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the price action has been messy not giving any clear level where to lean on except the major support and the lower bound of the channel. The buyers should keep on leaning on the bottom trendline and the support, while the sellers should wait for a break below the support to pile in for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US CPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. The US-Iran negotiations are expected to begin tomorrow now but we still might get some headline today, so keep an eye on that. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.