The narrative of an "AI investment winter" coming to an end has been a terrifying prospect for stock aficionados, casting a long shadow over the beginning of the month.After the data-blackout from the US Government, markets were increasingly jittery, spooked by a a lack of public information, not-so-great private reports and gloomy foreshadowing from industry titans like the Nvidia CEO and OpenAI CFO.But Nvidia (NVDA) flipped the script entirely, and the market is loving it:Talk about a beat on earnings: the numbers were stellar, but the forward communications were even more ecstatic with some $500 Billion of AI-Chip investment expected next year from the Semiconductor giant, dispelling fears of a peak in AI Investment.You can access the entire earnings report here if interested.The most valuable company in the world is already heading back just below the $200 mark (trading around $191.90 after-hours), dragging the entire tech sector out of its sentiment-slump. zoom_out_map Nvidia (NVDA) 8H Chart – Gap higher and small retracement. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Combine this with the strong Jobless Claims report and the long-awaited September NFP number, and the signal is clear: the US economy is not done growing yet.As explained in our Market analysis yesterday, the Nasdaq failed to break concrete lows, formed a sturdy technical base (a triple bottom), and is now flying higher on renewed stellar momentum and sentiment.The only remaining hurdle will be to see if the hawkish Fed repricing—confirmed by yesterday's Minutes—doesn't step in to cap this renewed euphoria.Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis for the tech-heavy and back-on-top Nasdaq. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (10:13 A.M.) – November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:Markets Today: NFP in Focus as Rate Cut Bets Tumble, NVIDIA Earnings Boost SentimentNikkei 225: Bulls back in vogue with 4% “Takaichi Trade”rallyNorth American mid-week Market update – US Data is finally back!Nasdaq multi-timeframe technical analysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) Daily Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq just broke a 19-day streak with descending price action with a powerful daily candle forming a bullish engulfing after the fake out lower from the weekly open.Still evolving within its descending channel, the rebound is still young but looks powerful in the current state.Daily RSI is just reaching the neutral zone, which bulls will have to breach to put back momentum into their hands.Currently breezing through the Daily Pivot zone between 25,000 to 25,250, the buying is steep but there are a few technical hurdles left:Keep an eye on the top of the descending channel around 25,300 and the 4H 200-period MA (25,245).Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-resistance at 25,500 Gapintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current Pivot 25,000 to 25,250 (Breaking)Channel highs 25,300 to 25,350Support Levels24,325 Session lows24,500 Main support (testing)October low support just around 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Now evolving in a short-timeframe upward channel from its breakout, some profit-taking is occurring right around the top of the Pivot Zone at a confluence with the 4H MA 200 after a 1H RSI bearish divergence.The session highs are at 24,235 and will have to be breached by bulls in order to keep up their chance at coming back to their all-time highs.Momentum is swift but today will be a huge test to Buyer sentiment in Market.Failing to re-enter the upward channel may bring darker times ahead; the session close will be very important.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 19Markets were already going back and forth in anticipation of the Nvidia earnings, but they got even more food for thought with a double-header of macro and micro shocks.US Equity futures, particularly the Nasdaq, are raging higher after Nvidia (NVDA) published yet another beat on some already sky-high expectations.Nvidia shares have surged to $191.90 in after-close trading, up about 3% and counting. zoom_out_map Nvidia Q3 Earnings report, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView This beat provides exactly what the market needed in uncertain times, serving as a potent counter-narrative to the doubts on how sustainable the Stock Market rally is.On a more gloomy note for Equity bulls, the FOMC Minutes turned more hawkish as traders were already pricing out the December cut aggressively, and the latest Fed report put a nail in the coffin—at least for now. The minutes revealed a distinct lack of confidence in immediate easing, with the report stating: "Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year." This revelation likely takes out dreams of further cuts for 2025 and brings back a rough question for Markets:Is the "higher for longer" narrative making a comeback? Read More:North American mid-week Market update – US Data is finally back!NFP Preview: BLS Announces No October Report, November Report Delayed to After Fed Meeting. Rate Cut Bets Tumble Further, Implications for the DXYUS Market Outlook – Nasdaq attempts a run higher, but Bulls can't go too farCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Today saw some relief in Equities, particularly for the post-close Nasdaq which caught fire after the huge Nvidia Earnings. Now participants will expect further continuation higher tomorrow. If not, things will look ugly.Bitcoin and Cryptos got sold off quite harshly again today, but some return of appetite in Tech after the NVDA numbers could put some hype back on the table. Everything will be in play tomorrow.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 19 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar largely led the dance in Forex today, with an initial strong move magnified by the Hawkish FOMC minutes which put chills in all participants who thought it was going to be an easy path towards the Neutral Rate.Among the laggers today, the Antipodean currencies which are seeing consecutive outflows. Tonight's PBoC Rate Decision (21:30 ET) is having its impact on the selling in the AUD and NZD, so keep an eye on that.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's session is stacked with finally, a return of US data.The early bird session begins with the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) (3:00 A.M. ET), checking on the inflation pipeline, followed by German Buba report.However, the day truly starts with the North American session (8:30 A.M. ET), which will see the release of a massive tranche of US labor data:A late September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) with Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. The data will be outdated but still watched closely by all the traders.Also releasing is the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the influential Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey.To compliment the data, Markets are awaiting comments from several influential FED members (Cook, Goolsbee, Miran) and BoE's Dhingra.The evening session should also be busy for JPY traders, who are focused on the Japanese National CPI (19:30 ET) tomorrow evening. This inflation figure is absolutely critical in shaping expectations for the Bank of Japan's future policy. Also on watch are the preliminary Australian S&P Global PMIs (18:00 ET) for the AUD.Don't forget the Walmart earnings right at the pre-open!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.With the US government finally reopening its doors, markets are bracing for an immediate data deluge after months of flying blind. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scrambling to clear the backlog, with the delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) set to drop tomorrow, Thursday the 20th, followed by the release of PPI data on the 25th. Adding to the high-stakes environment, weekly jobless claims are also making a comeback tomorrow morning. While this influx of information is a gift to a Federal Reserve starved for clarity, it injects a fresh dose of anxiety into the market: will the data validate the "soft landing" or reveal deeper cracks? Traders are left questioning if a December rate cut is really still on the table given the new uncertainty – The freshly released FOMC Minutes might just have given an answer to that, saying that "it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year." You can access the report right here.Speaking of anxiety, the broader market is struggling to find its footing. The AI boom appears to be getting out of breath, and renewed hawkish commentary from Fed officials is putting a firm lid on ecstatic risk-asset rallies. On the geopolitical stage, the US President is "playing chess" again, with mediators actively trying to arrange a resolution to the Ukraine-Russia war—potentially involving high-stakes meetings—which has triggered aggressive moves in commodities and fueled further confidence in the US Dollar. The Greenback is loving the chaos, pushing back towards the psychological 100.00 level, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is also managing to get back on track. The emerging narrative of 2025 flows changing could indeed be a booster for North American currencies, but the final verdict will heavily depend on the reality revealed by upcoming data releases. In any case, let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USD/CAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The TSX is probably the only Stock Market holding tight with the ongoing profit-taking everywhere else.European stocks are doing worst than the US, on a relative note, but the mood hasn't been to prolific for risk-assets. Still, keep an eye on some ongoing dip-buying.Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 8H Chart, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is catching strong momentum higher from the hawkish repricings and the FOMC Minutes – The December meeting should now priced out completely.Bulls will still have to break the early November highs at 100.376 but after this, there is no clear resistance before the 101.00 psychological level.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highsTop of channel and psychological level at 101.00Support Levels99.60 to 99.80 mini-resistance now pivotHigher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00 - Acting as SupportMini-support 98.50Main support 98.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, November 19, 2025 - Source: TradingView The Dollar is back on top, beating all other currencies on the way (except for the CAD, against which it is virtually unchanged).Look at the strong run against the yen. Some momentum is going through in USD/JPY, now breaking 156.00.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, November 19, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar is catching up on the past few months of bad performance. Some 2025 positions are unrolling, but more particularly, North American currencies are seeing a boost throughout with cuts now pricing out in both the US and Canada, which brings back quite some demand for their under-positioned currencies.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 8H Chart, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD has been holding quite a volatile range, with both currencies going back and forth throughout the past week.The pair reached some new monthly lows just last session, but the wave is coming back towards USD demand as the hawkish move pulls everything out of its way.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance LevelsLiberation Day level around 1.4050Cycle highs 1.4143Current Resistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support LevelsLiberation Day level around 1.4050Major Daily Support 1.39 (+/- 200 pips)1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The rest of the week brings some long-awaited US data once again.Thursday starts with a new round of heavy U.S. labor numbers : average hourly earnings, weekly hours, jobless claims, participation, unemployment, and the release of the September NFP print—all landing together and likely to spark volatility. Housing is also in play with existing home sales at 10:00 A.M. followed by several Fed speakers through the afternoon. Friday shifts the spotlight to Canada’s Retail Sales, with both headline and ex-autos expected to contract. In the U.S., the closing session is dominated by sentiment and PMI indicators, including S&P Global composite, manufacturing, and services readings, plus the full University of Michigan inflation revisions. Expect Multiple Fed appearances to round out the morning, making this a dense, market-moving finish to the week. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 18As the title says, Markets are roller coasters.Volatility fiends are loving the action, particularly when looking at how much back and forth action all asset classes are seeing.As was mentioned in one of our Market Wraps from a few days prior, such flows resemble those that can be seen at the end of huge Quarters.However, we are still far even for Month-end.November is known to be a volatile month (although usually one for upside in stocks).Crypto veterans can only confirm as the two past Market cycle tops (2018 and 2021) have happened between November and December.Seasonals are always a big thing in Market. Don't forget to keep an eye on them.Nevertheless, no one could have expected that another 2% gap down in stocks (particularly Tech) would be followed by a follow-up recovery, and once again close lower – Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon and Tesla are among the worst performers of today's session. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap. November 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Still no apparent cause for the current volatility, at least for now.Traders are getting ready for some huge earnings reports, with Nvidia tomorrow (Check out our preview!) and Walmart the day after.How important they are cannot be emphasized enough. Read More:Bitcoin loses 2025 gains: $90,000 marks Crypto Market turning pointGold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) send mixed signals to doubtful TradersDollar-franc looks for support at triple bottom ahead of FOMC Minutes, eyes 0.80000Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView A clear wave has been drawn between Stocks and other asset classes today.Equities are victim of quite some anxiety these days. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.Keep an eye on Cryptos which ended up rebounding today after terrible performance (Dead cat bounce or bottom ?).Oil has been rebounding quite consistently too which remains something to keep your eyes on.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 18 – Source: OANDA Labs The lack of narrative explaining FX movement these past sessions has been pretty confusing to be quite honest.The Loonie saw strong flows bringing USD/CAD back below 1.40 for the first time since about a month, and competed with the AUD which saw strong flows once again (this one has been consistent).On the other hand, the CHF got hammered from what seems to be more position unrolling. Another victim of the Re-basement trade?Tomorrow's Earnings report – Nvidia in focus zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar for Wednesday, Nov 19 – Source: Nasdaq.com Nvidia will release their earnings after the session close. Expect very anxious trading throughout the session.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Wednesday is dominated by the UK’s inflation landscape, with CPI, core CPI, PPI outputs and inputs, and the retail price index all landing at once—an important cross-check for how quickly price pressures are cooling heading into year-end (if they actually are cooling).Europe follows with the ECB’s non-monetary policy meeting and a full set of harmonized inflation readings (not the most volatile usually), which should help shape expectations for the next policy steps.The Markets will once again have to focus on the Fed as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is slowly getting back into action – Expect more announcements.The North American session begins late with Miran and Williams before the FOMC Minutes hit (15:00 ET)—a potential catalyst if tone or language shifts from recent messaging, and particularly with the recent doubts regarding the upcoming Decision.The day wraps with China’s PBoC rate decision, expected to stay put but communications will, as always, be closely watched.NZD traders should also make sure to not forget the Wage Price Index data releasing at 20:00 ET in this evening's session.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Continue to Slide Most Read: NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Navigating the AI Stress TestGlobal markets, especially stocks and Bitcoin, became weaker because traders are worried and reducing their risks. This cautious move comes right before two very important events: the release of Nvidia's company earnings report and the crucial US employment report.In Asia, stock markets hit their lowest points in a month. The biggest drops were seen in Japan (whose Nikkei index fell 3%) and South Korea (whose KOSPI index lost 3.3%), both known for their big technology sectors. Other major markets like Australia (down nearly 2%) and Hong Kong (down 1.67%) also fell significantly.The general drop in Asian markets followed a large sell-off in the US stock market (Wall Street) the night before, as investors prepared for many new economic reports to be released. A group of Japanese stocks related to Artificial Intelligence (AI) saw a big one-day drop of 4.7% on Tuesday.These same AI stocks had previously grown by a massive 130% from the start of the year until October but have now fallen about 15% since the end of October.European Session - Banking Stocks Drag European stock markets dropped to their lowest point in a week on Monday. This decline mirrored a global trend where investors are avoiding risk due to two main concerns: the technology sector being possibly overpriced (a potential "AI bubble") and the growing belief that the US Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates soon.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, fell 1.1%, and major national markets like Germany and France also dropped over 1.2% each. Banking stocks in Europe were the biggest reason for this overall decline, falling more than 2%. Investor mood is delicate globally, especially with high expectations for Nvidia's earnings report coming on Wednesday, which is increasing concerns about an AI-related stock bubble.In Europe, companies that make AI-related equipment, such as Siemens Energy and Schneider Electric, saw their stocks fall, and ABB's shares dropped 4% after its growth outlook disappointed investors.Additionally, traders are being careful ahead of the important US jobs report due on Thursday. Although some data suggests the job market is weakening, comments from most Federal Reserve officials suggest they are less likely to cut interest rates in December. The one positive note was the Swiss drug company Roche, whose stock jumped nearly 6% after sharing good results from a late-stage trial for its breast cancer medicine.On the FX front, The Japanese yen got stronger against the dollar in Asian trading, bouncing back from its weakest point in over nine months. This happened because traders became less confident that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates next month, leading to a general move away from riskier investments across various markets.The US dollar weakened 0.3% against the yen, dropping to 154.885, as traders sought safety in the yen while stocks, gold, and Bitcoin were being sold off.The overall dollar index, which measures the dollar against other major currencies, was 0.1% weaker at 99.448. Meanwhile, the euro gained 0.1% against the dollar, ending a three-day slide. The Australian dollar fell slightly (0.2%) to 0.64785 after meeting minutes showed that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is questioning if its current interest rate of 3.6% is still strict enough, especially noting a rise in loans to property investors.The British pound remained steady at 1.3157, and the New Zealand dollar weakened slightly (0.1%) to 0.56475Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped by almost 1% on Tuesday. This decline occurred because concerns about global oil supply were reduced after loading operations resumed at a key Russian export port. These operations had been briefly stopped following a strike involving a Ukrainian drone and missile.In the background, traders are still trying to understand how Western penalties (sanctions) will ultimately affect the amount of Russian oil reaching the market. Specifically, Brent crude oil futures fell by 56 cents (0.9%) to $63.64 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped by 54 cents (0.9%) to $59.37 a barrel.Gold prices dropped to their lowest point in over a week on Tuesday. The main reason for this decline was that traders are becoming less confident that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, which reduces the appeal of gold.This price movement occurred as traders awaited the release of delayed U.S. economic reports later in the week. Specifically, the price of spot gold fell by 0.3% to 4,033.29/oz.Read More:USD/JPY: Potential minor top at 155.30, USD at risk of bearish reversal towards 154.20/153.65Gold (XAU/USD): 9% dead cat bounce rally at risk of reversal, watch US$4,036 downside triggerEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet one in terms of data releases but we do have a host of Central Bank speakers from the ECB and BoE.The US session will bring some data releases but markets are more focused on the FOMC minutes on Wednesday as well as the NVIDIA earnings release. We have also heard from the BLS that September’s payrolls will be released on Thursday at 08:30 AM Washington time. That should limit the FX impact of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes and could prove as pivotal for macro as Nvidia’s earnings are for equities. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken below the crucial 200-day MA.However, the most recent four-hour candle closed as a hammer candlestick hinting at a potential recovery.Despite this price remains below the 200-day MA, with a close above the 9610 level needed to give me confidence that further upside may materialize.Immediate resistance rests at 9661 and 9700 before the 100-day MA at 9743 comes into focus.Immediate support rests at 9575, 9545 before the 9500 handle comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 18, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 17Markets opened the week on some fragile risk-sentiment to continue what has been going on since the end-October price peaks.Cryptocurrencies have led the risk-unwinding. Bitcoin plunged to its lowest level since early May, trading around $92,000 at the close. This action, marking a multi-month low, is starting to scare investors, particularly the most leveraged ones.Today's drop was not just surrounded by Tech and AI names. The Dow Jones also took a severe hit, shedding 550 points, closing down 1.2%. Sectors that had performed solidly last week, like Financials, Consumer Defensive, and Energy, got rejected harshly. zoom_out_map Another bloody session in US Stocks – US Equity Heatmap. November 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the selloff, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has tried to tone things down, with his perspective suggesting that data argues for the policy rate to be closer to neutral. For those who don't know, Waller could also be playing the political game, being one of the contenders to replace Jerome Powell at the end of his term in May 2026.However, the market seems to say that it's too late now to reassure the herd. Still relatively close to their all-time highs, the drops are swift but remain orderly.However, traders and investors will need to be ready in case things escalate and the current profit-taking turns into something much bigger. Read More:Unclear BLS post-shutdown schedule – Markets Weekly OutlookNVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Navigating the AI Stress TestUS Stocks remain on edge: Why the market is struggling for directionCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin drags the attention from other assets yet again, with another 4% decrease in today's session (and much worse for most other altcoins).Oil on the other hand has held economic fear-flows much better than expected, with the past week's drop not seeing any continuation. It is way to early to call a bottom in energy commodities, but some interesting developments are happening over these markets.Keep an eye on Gold (take a look at our most recent analysis right here) and US indices to gauge market sentiment and the potential unwinding of the 2025 trades.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 17 – Source: OANDA Labs After many days of pulling back, the US dollar is making a return as the safe-haven currency of the session while most others struggled.Resilient performers have also been the GBP and CAD, which had both seen rough performance last month, while the CHF and JPY hang around unchanged, not characteristic of a typical risk-off session.Some noticeable moves did happen throughout the session with some major stops kicking through as USD/JPY rose above 155.00, and the Euro reached all-time highs against the yen. Luckily for the Japanese currency, the Kiwi and Aussie dollars struggled even more with the risk-off environment.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Monday session wraps with the Australia’s RBA Minutes and could spark further late-session moves in AUD pairs. Tuesday opens with speeches from the ECB’s Elderson and BoE’s Pill, setting the tone before a run of US numbers. The second weekly ADP’s employment change release expected to maintain the most recent weakening trend in private employment at around -11k jobs. The day closes with a full slate of Asia-Pacific data: Japan posts mixed trade figures with weak imports and a wider deficit, New Zealand releases Q3 PPI, and Australia’s Wage Price Index offers another read on how sticky domestic inflation remains for the RBA.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The recent 9% rally in gold (XAU/USD) from US$3,886 to US$4,245 is likely a short-term corrective rebound within a larger medium-term downtrend after the all-time high of US$4,381 on 20 October 2025.Rising 10-year US Treasury real yield, which broke above 1.77% and remains supported, increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, constraining its upside momentum.Short-term gold is at risk of a bearish breakdown below US$4,036, with key resistance at US$4,155; a break above this level could trigger a squeeze toward US$4,203/4,267. The recent 9% rally seen in the gold (XAU/USD) from its 28 October 2025 low of US$3,886 to last Thursday, 13 November 2025, high of US$4,245 is likely a minor corrective rebound, aka “dead cat bounce”, within a larger medium-term corrective decline structure that the precious yellow metal is likely still undergoing after gold hit its current all-time high of US$4,381 on 20 October 2025.Let’s break it down from a technical and intermarket analysis perspective.10-year US Treasury real yield bullish breakout above 1.78% zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 10-year US Treasury real yield medium-term & major trends as of 17 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) The opportunity cost of holding gold, especially for leveraged speculative long positions, has increased in the past four weeks.The 10-year US Treasury real yield has found medium-term support at 1.66% and broke decisively above its prior medium-term descending channel resistance at 1.77% on 30 October.It has continued to trade firmly above 1.77% in the past two weeks, which coincides with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.These observations suggest that the 10-year US Treasury real yield has room for further upside within its major downtrend phase that is still intact below the major pivotal resistance of 2.24%, with the next medium-term resistances coming in at 1.87% and 2.09% (see Fig. 1).A further rise in the 10-year US Treasury real yield raises the opportunity cost of holding gold, which could constrain upside momentum in the yellow metal.Next, we outline the short-term trajectory for gold (XAU/USD) over the next 1 to 3 days, along with the key technical elements and levels to monitor.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – At risk of bearish breakdown below US$4,036 zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 17 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) Short-term pivotal resistance for gold (XAU/USD) stands at US$4,155, and a break below US$4,036 is likely to unleash the second leg of its medium-term corrective decline phase to expose the next intermediate supports at US$3,980 and US$3,895/3,864 in the first step (see Fig. 2).Key elements Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a bearish reversal on last Friday, 14 November, and ended the week with a weekly bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern.Before the bearish reversal occurred last Friday, the hourly RSI momentum indicator of gold (XAU/USD) had traced out a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region (above the 70 level) on Thursday, 13 November.These observations indicate that the 9% rally in gold (XAU/USD) from the 28 October 2025 low to the 13 November 2025 high lacks the momentum needed to trigger a sustained bullish impulsive move.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) On the other hand, a clearance above US$4,155 key resistance invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at US$4,203 and US$4,267. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBP has remained on the offensive against the US dollar. This comes despite the series of negative UK data of late which continued this morning.UK GDP Data Disappoints The UK economy grew slightly, by 0.1%, between July and September 2025, which was less than the 0.2% growth market participants had predicted.The main problem was in the industrial sector, like factories and mining, which shrank by 0.5%. Manufacturing was down, with car making hit especially hard—dropping over 10%—after a cyberattack in September caused major problems for Jaguar Land Rover. The services sector, which includes things like entertainment and real estate, did grow, but at 0.2%, it was slower than the previous quarter. Construction also saw very small growth of 0.1%, mostly from repair jobs, as new building projects actually fell. When looking at the entire year, the economy grew 1.3% compared to the same time last year, which was also slightly below forecasts.The weak GDP number should add to rate cut expectations from the BoE in December. As you can see the most recent pricing places a 75% probability on a 25bps rate cut. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG UK inflation does however remain elevated at 3.8%, which is well above the 2% target. This keeps market participants on edge and will keep eys on the Bank of England heading into December.Market Reaction and the US Dollars Role Cable has remained resilient since the selloff which ended on November 5, just shy of the critical 1.3000 pivot level. A sharp rally followed before a period of consolidation since Friday November 7.Part of the reason for Cable's rise may be attributed to the US Dollar as well as buyers defending the crucial 1.3000 pivot handle.From the US Dollar perspective, the end of the US Government shutdown has led to some US Dollar weakness. The dollar is facing rising rate cut bets and declining haven flows as the Government shutdown appears close to being resolved.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, November 13, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView This sets the stage for further GBP resilience. However, the UK budget is coming up soon and that could be keeping bulls on a leash as Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces an unenviable task.UK Budget Ahead Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a significant challenge in addressing a fiscal shortfall of approximately £25 billion per year.Her primary task is to deliver a credible, "market-friendly" budget that closes this gap without unnerving investors or adding to inflation. The Treasury is reportedly keen to avoid any tax hikes, such as on VAT, that could fuel inflation and limit the Bank of England's scope for future rate cuts.This forces Reeves to find a difficult balance between raising revenue, likely through measures like freezing tax thresholds and increasing bank taxes all the while implementing politically sensitive spending cuts, which markets are skeptical will be delivered. Any failure to demonstrate fiscal discipline risks a negative market reaction, undoing the recent fall in gilt yields. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - GBP/USD From a technical point of view, GBP/USD has been in consolidation since Friday, November 7.On the four-hour timeframe, there is a red block between the 1.3180 and 1.3100 with a four-hour candle close above opening up the possibility of a move in either direction.The overarching macro picture points to further upside but bulls may remain slightly hesitant ahead of the UK budget.Immediate upside resistance is provided by the 100-day MA at 1.31927 before the long-term descending trendline comes into play. Beyond that we have the 200-day MA resting at 1.3300 and resistance around the 1.3333 handles to consider.The 1.3000 handle remains key for GBP/USD, the longer it holds the more bulls may be emboldened. If the UK fails to inspire a break of that level, GBP/USD may be set to end the year higher.GBP/USD Daily Chart, November 13, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (12/11/2025): Join TraderNick and host Jonny Hart as they discuss a likely end to the upcoming government shutdown, rising probability of a BoE rate cut, and a fall in crude pricing. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Advance, Nikkei Up 0.43% Most Read: Large rotation from tech as ADP employment scares again – Market wrap for the North American session - November 11Asian stock markets and government bonds both moved higher after new employment data suggested the US job market is cooling down. This soft data increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, causing the 10-year Treasury yield to drop and traders to now price in a roughly 70% chance of a rate cut next month.The prolonged government shutdown forced investors to rely heavily on private reports, like the one from ADP, because official job and inflation data were unavailable. News that the shutdown could end as early as Wednesday boosted investor optimism, but traders are now preparing for a flood of delayed official economic data once federal agencies reopen.According to the private ADP report, while US companies cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the last four weeks of October, the full monthly report still showed that private-sector payrolls grew by 42,000 in October, following two months of job losses.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%, with technology stocks recovering from early losses. In Japan, the Nikkei index rose 0.43%, and the broader Topix index closed at a record high, boosted by Sony Group jumping 3.67% after raising its annual profit forecast by 8%.However, SoftBank Group ended 3.46% lower after revealing it sold a $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia, which also contributed to a decline in other chip-related shares. Conversely, bank stocks performed well, with financial groups like Mitsubishi and Sumitomo Mitsui seeing strong gains.European Session - European Stocks Print Fresh Highs European stock markets rose on Wednesday, continuing their gains from the previous two days and reaching new record highs, with both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 indexes up.Investor optimism was boosted by the high likelihood of the US government reopening soon and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again.Several companies provided good news: Infineon Technologies jumped 2.2% after predicting its revenue would start growing again next year; RWE added 3.5% after reporting better-than-expected profits; and Bayer rose 1.7% after its profit beat forecasts.Luxury giant LVMH and bank Intesa Sanpaolo also saw their stocks hit recent or all-time high prices. The only notable drop was E.ON, which lost 1.5% despite confirming its profit forecast for the year.On the FX front, the Japanese yen fell to a nine-month low against the U.S. Dollar on Wednesday, hitting 154.82 per dollar, which prompted Japanese officials, including Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, to try and stop the drop with verbal warnings.The yen has fallen sharply since early October, largely because the market expects the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, to increase government spending.The US Dollar recovered slightly from its previous losses, rising 0.1% against other currencies.Meanwhile, the British pound and the euro both dropped slightly, while the Australian dollar rose 0.2% and the New Zealand dollar was mostly flat.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs The price of oil fell by nearly 1% on Wednesday due to too much oil being available in the market, though the anticipated end of the longest-ever US government shutdown helped curb losses by promising a future boost in oil demand. Both Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate dropped about 1%.Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a new major forecast predicting that global oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050. This is a significant shift from the IEA's previous prediction that demand would peak this decade, as the agency has changed its forecasting method to look only at current government policies instead of climate promises. Investors are now also waiting for similar outlook reports from OPEC and the US Energy Information Administration, which are due out today.Gold prices were steady on Wednesday as investors waited for the US House of Representatives to vote on a deal to reopen the government. If the deal passes, it would provide two things the market needs: clear official economic reports (which have been delayed) and a better idea of how the Federal Reserve will decide on future interest rate cuts.Spot gold remained stable, while US gold futures for December delivery saw a small rise of 0.5%.Read More:WTI Oil Up 1.7% as Markets Grapple with Geopolitical Shocks and Structural Supply GlutGold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Bullish Breakout Gathers Pace as Fed Pivot Expectations Firm, $4250/oz Incoming?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet with an OPEC monthly report the highlight. There are also a host of Central Bank speakers from the ECB, BoE and the Federal Reserve.The main focus for markets is the US House of Representatives, which is expected to pass the compromise bill to reopen the government until January 30th. If approved, the government could reopen as early as Friday, allowing the release of the important September NFP jobs report (which might be negative for the US Dollar) early next week.Before then, New York Fed President John Williams will give a speech today. While he is generally seen as favoring lower interest rates, his speech is unlikely to change the current market expectation, which prices a 66% probability of a 0.25% Fed interest rate cut in December. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken out of the wedge pattern which has been in play of late.The breakout sets the index up for a potential 220-odd point rally to the upside.A retest of the wedge cannot be ruled out and may present a better risk-to-reward opportunity. The recent four-hour candle close which is a shooting star candle does hint at further downside.Immediate support rests at 9863 and 9840 before the 9800 handle comes onto focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 12. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 7US stocks endured another rollercoaster session as panic gripped markets early in the day, triggered by a sharp drop in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence index. Consumer Pessimism and Job Cuts Increase Uncertainty About Economic Outlook in USThe weak sentiment data pushed the Nasdaq down nearly 5% for the week, extending the streak of volatility.Still, the poor figures also revived dovish expectations, especially following Thursday’s grim Challenger layoff report, sparking a late-session rebound that lifted major indices back near unchanged by the close.The improving tone coincides with growing optimism around the US government shutdown negotiations, as pressure mounts on Democrats to strike a deal.However, things will not be simple once again as the latest deal just got rejected. Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook – Traders get impatient for the US shutdown to endCanadian employment shoots higher – CAD takes the leadCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 7 – Source: OANDA Labs The Canadian Dollar took a breather after the consecutive beats in the labor data.On the other side of the spectrum however, the NZD (which has been struggling a lot) got hurt.The JPY gave back its weekly advance with the better tone throughout the end of the session.A look at Economic data releasing throughout the weekend and Monday's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Participants will learn more on Chinese inflation throughout the weekend with their own Consumer and Producer price indices releasing Saturday.Monday shouldn't be too busy in terms of news release throughout the US session, but will get a few early morning releases in Europe.The most important will however be the evening session with key data releasing for the AUD and NZD (Australian Consumer confidence at 19:30 ET and the RBNZ Inflation expectations).Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Amid the absence of key US labor data during the longest US government shutdown in history (which has undoubtedly started to weigh on market sentiment, look at stocks this week!), the northern neighbor Canada was still able to deliver a surprise to traders.The Canadian labor market delivered a second consecutive beat in employment growth, reporting an actual gain of 66.6K jobs (exp -2.5K).This unexpected surge provides a much-needed lift.: while Canada has been struggling with tariffs biting into some of its key sectors, notably metals and lumber, this comeback in employment marks some slow but tangible regaining of confidence from businesses after what was a rough summer.However, a closer look reveals that most of these jobs added have been part-time positions.While this headline beat provided an immediate and strong boost to the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the key question remains whether the market can hold today's current strength without a corresponding increase in full-time employment. zoom_out_map The Canadian Dollar takes the lead on the FX space – November 7, 2025 – Source: Finviz This is at least a more positive report which may just be the light at the end of the tunnel for the land of Maple Syrup.You can access today's report here.Let's now take a look at multi-timeframe charts for USD/CAD to see where this fundamental surprise could take the pair.USD/CAD multi-timeframe technical analysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map USD/CAD Daily Chart, November 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Today's candle marks the first red candle in the North American pair in 7 sessions. Some slowing down in buying had brought a double-top RSI divergence which is now seeing some consequences.The Canadian Dollar has been bleeding for a while with the latest turmoil in US-Canada trade talks – For now, price action remains above the Daily pivot region (1.40 to 1.4050).4H Chart and levels zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, November 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance LevelsApril 2025 Pivotal Resistance 1.41 - 1.4150Nov 5 weekly and multi-month highs 1.4140Key resistance 1.4250Support Levels1.40 to 1.4050 Key Pivot (4H MA 50)Major Daily Pivot 1.39 (+/- 200 pips)1.38 Major support +/- 150 pips1.3550 Main 2025 Support1H Chart zoom_out_map USD/CAD 1H Chart, November 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking even closer, the divergence happened on all timeframes which magnified this morning's 600 pip move in the pair.Oversold RSI on the short timeframe prompts small mean-reversion, but as markets head into the weekly close, check if buyers manage to close the week above 1.41.Failing to do so adds more probabilities of a short-term reversal within the upward channel (upper bound recently tested)While the market awaits more developments on trade deals, the main aspects to watch for USD/CAD are:Is confidence coming back for Canadian businesses? Look at upcoming Canadian PMI data and retails sales; Stronger data there could support CAD strengthIs the US Dollar still on its run higher or has it found a local top?The usual rate differential: A more hawkish Fed boosted the US Dollar. Look out for Federal Reserve speechesSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Ending a Shaky Week with Losses Most Read: Has the Market turned on the AI boom? – Market wrap for the North American session - November 6Asian stocks dropped today (Friday), ending a shaky week where traders were torn between excitement over new technology and rising worries that the value of Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies is too high.The overall MSCI Asia Pacific stock index fell significantly, heading for its worst weekly performance since early August. In Japan, companies connected to chips and technology, like SoftBank, were the biggest losers. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.2% to head for a weekly loss of 4.1%, the largest since April.This decline followed a poor night on Wall Street, where big AI stocks like Nvidia tumbled and a key measure of market fear (the VIX) jumped. Globally, the stock market is set to end a four-week winning streak.Investors who previously drove the market rally, expecting both Federal Reserve rate cuts and AI-driven growth, are now questioning whether the massive spending on AI computers will actually lead to enough profit. Several top Wall Street figures have recently warned that the entire stock market gain is relying on just a few large technology companies.China Import Growth at 5-Month Low, Exports at 8-Month Low China's exports surprisingly dropped by 1.1% in October 2025, falling to an eight-month low of $305.4 billion. This was a reversal after a big jump in September and was much worse than the 3% growth expected.This was the first decline in exports since February, mainly because overseas orders slowed down after many buyers placed orders early to avoid new US tariffs. Buyers were also cautious due to the very uncertain trade relationship between the US and China that month. The drop was also made worse by the Golden Week holiday, which meant fewer work days, and high export figures from the same time last year.Exports to key countries like Japan (-5.7%) and South Korea (-13.1%) fell, and shipments to the US plunged by a massive 25.2%, marking the seventh straight month of double-digit declines there. Despite the poor October, China's total exports for the year-to-date are still up 5.3%, showing solid growth to the EU, ASEAN countries, and Japan, even though exports to the US are down 17.8% over that same period.European Session - European Shares Higher, ITV Jumps 18% European stocks saw a small rise today, providing a stable close to a week that was otherwise troubled by worries about high prices for technology stocks worldwide.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, was up 0.2% but is still on track for its biggest two-week loss since early September. Analysts believe this week's drop was due to several issues, including the high cost of tech stocks, the U.S. government shutdown, and tough talk from the Federal Reserve about interest rates.In company news, ITV's stock jumped over 18% after it confirmed talks to sell its broadcasting division to Sky (owned by Comcast) for about £1.6 billion. This news helped boost the overall media sector.Conversely, Rightmove lost 24% after the property website predicted slower profit growth for 2026, as it plans major long-term investments, mostly in Artificial Intelligence. Finally, Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena gained 4.5% after reporting a surprisingly good third-quarter profit.On the FX front, the US dollar is set to end the week slightly higher, as investors try to weigh the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate stance against ongoing worries about the US economy.The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against several other currencies, rose a small amount to 99.81 and has gained slightly over the week. Despite this recovery, the dollar is stuck in the same narrow trading range it has been in since August.Looking at other currencies:The euro fell slightly to 1.1535 against the dollar but performed better than the British pound and Swiss franc.The dollar rose against the Japanese yen to 153.41, after earlier hitting its lowest level since October 30th.The Australian dollar stayed flat, while the New Zealand dollar (kiwi) fell slightly.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased slightly on Friday, but they are still expected to post their second straight weekly loss. This is because prices fell sharply over the previous three days due to concerns that there is too much oil supply available and that demand in the US is slowing down.Brent crude oil rose 1% to 63.98 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude was also up 1% at 60.04.Gold prices increased today because of two main factors: people are more hopeful the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the future, and there are continuing worries about the US economy, which is being hurt by the long government shutdown.These factors boost demand for gold as a safe investment. The price of spot gold (XAU) was up 0.8% to 4,010.72/oz, with December gold futures showing a similar gain, up 0.7% to 4,019.50/oz.For more on Gold prices, read Gold (XAU/USD) Price Slips 1.5% as $4000/oz Handle Remains Elusive. What Comes Next?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The dollar had an up-and-down week. It started strong but eased off yesterday after some reports suggested that US job growth might be slowing. However, because the US government shutdown is still happening, we don't have the full, clear picture of the job market yet.For now, expect the dollar to trade sideways, with investors focusing on other major news, such as the weak trade data from China and the upcoming jobs report from Canada. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken below the ascending trendline hinting at a deeper correction.Fundamentals do however remain positive for equities and this makes any potential trade an interesting proposition.Looking at the period-14 RSI and it remains above the 50-mark which is a sign of bullish momentum.If the 50 neutral level on the RSI holds, this could set the tone for further upside.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 7. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: US Dollar (DXY) Jumps Past 100.00: Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall & Strong US Data. Will this Continue Throughout Q4?The Bank of England's committee decided to keep their main interest rate (Bank Rate) at 4%, which is what most people expected. However, the vote was close (5 members for keeping it, 4 members wanted to cut it by a small amount), showing that more people on the committee are leaning towards lowering rates. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) They believe that the worst of inflation is over and prices are starting to slow down. This slowdown is due to their current high rates, slower wage increases, and weaker price growth in services. They also noted that a slow economy and a less tight job market are helping to push inflation down.The committee now thinks the risks of missing their 2% inflation target are more balanced; they are less worried about high inflation sticking around and more worried about the economy being too weak. Still, they emphasized they need to see more proof that this trend will continue.Future rate cuts will happen gradually and will depend entirely on the new economic data that comes in.UK Inflation is Looking Better Optimism that the Bank of England (BoE) might cut interest rates this year is rising, causing UK 10-year bond yields to drop significantly since mid-October. Just a month ago, the market doubted the BoE would cut rates again soon. Now, the view is changing because inflation, currently at 3.8%, appears to have peaked.Even though the full drop won't happen until next year, encouraging signs are appearing: food price inflation is easing more quickly than expected, and service sector inflation is slowing down. This is being helped by private sector wage growth also falling, which is on track to end the year below 4% after starting much higher.This confidence is also boosted by expectations that the upcoming Autumn Budget will be viewed positively by the financial markets.UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed today's BoE cut to inflation forecast.According to the BoE “Progress on disinflation indicates bank rate likely to continue a gradual downward path: "gradual and careful approach" to further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint”.On the subject of inflation, Governor Bailey stated “It is encouraging that the inflation peak in September was 0.2 percentage points below our August forecast”. All in all signs appear positive on the Inflation front.There is another inflation print due out on November 19, which could have a major impact on pricing of a BoE rate cut in December, before attention turns to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget.UK Autumn Budget Now in Focus The UK budget will become the main area of focus as the month progresses. Fiscal sustainability remains key and will likely determine the impact the budget speech has on the GBP.If Chancellor Reeves adopts more fiscal tightening the implications could lead to further weakness for the GBP. A budget which delivers tax hikes but pushes up 2026 inflation could potentially boost the GBP while a budget that under-delivers on fiscal sustainability could prompt a severe sell-off in the GBP.Chancellor Reeves really has an unenviable task ahead of her with markets paying close attention.Market Reaction to the BoE Hold Markets saw the GBP weaken in the aftermath of today's rate decision with a 30-40 pip selloff in GBP/USD.However, cable has since reversed this and pushed higher to trade around the 1.3100 handle at the time of writing.A break above the 1.3100 handle and four-hour candle close could embolden bulls and push GBPUSD toward the 1.3250 handle and the 100-day MA which rests around the 1.3270.If cable fails to find acceptance above 1.3100 handle, a retest of the crucial 1.3000 level may be in the offing.GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart, November 6, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 5.The US government shutdown officially became the longest in history today — 36 days and counting — yet markets found some relief in stronger-than-expected private data amid the lack of public releases.The ISM Services PMI hit its highest level since February, and ADP employment came in at 42K vs. 25K expected, underscoring the economy’s resilience despite the political gridlock.Services PMI and ADP beats fuel US stock market return Read More:North American mid-week Market update – Some reversal in 2025 flowsDollar rallies on ADP jobs beat, the 'Goldilocks' era and AI stock sell-offUS Dollar (DXY) Jumps Past 100.00: Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall & Strong US Data. Will this Continue Throughout Q4? Equities staged a solid rebound after a rough weekly open, but sellers re-emerged late in the session, capping gains and reminding traders that volatility is here to stay.Adding to the uncertainty, Trump’s tariffs are now being reviewed by the Supreme Court, injecting another layer of tension into an already fragile market mood.With the December Fed rate cut still about 60% priced in despite Powell's recent hawkish return, elevated volatility looks set to persist.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Today's flows got right back to the 2025 regular flows: Risk-assets rallying among gold (Cryptos largely overperformed) and the losing combo being US Treasuries and Oil.Despite the better US-China relations and very decent numbers, oversupply from OPEC+ and Russia keep on dragging oil prices lower after every rebound.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 5 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's trading saw low amplitude in Forex movement. Nonetheless, the US stopped its multi-week ascent (which didn't leave much space for other majors).The Japanese yen continues to underperform since PM's Takaichi got appointed, with USD/JPY trading in the 154.00 handle, up 4.56% since beginning October.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Once again, participants won't be able to access the normally weekly Jobless Claims release (the 6th consecutively not released) amid the ongoing shutdown.The FX program is expected to be quite filled with Australian trade data releasing tonight, and overnight's EU retail sales data.The North American session will first welcome the Bank of England Rate decision with the release of the Monetary Policy Report (Very important for the GBP).Throughout the rest of the session, expect a flurry of speakers from the Bank of England, Bank of Canada, the usual heavy FEDspeak and a few from the ECB. zoom_out_map All speeches from Central bank speakers in tomorrow's session Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways RBA pause likely: Hotter-than-expected inflation and a rebound in Australia’s services sector may prompt the RBA to halt its rate-cut cycle in November and December.AUD/USD supported: Renewed rate-differential advantage and easing U.S.–China tensions could lend short-term upside momentum to the Australian dollar.Key levels to watch: AUD/USD remains bullish above 0.6515 support, with resistances at 0.6595 and 0.6630. The Australian dollar has managed to catch a bullish beat last week, reinforced by a US-China trade tension de-escalation narrative ahead of the Trump-Xi in-person meet-up in South Korea on Thursday, 30 November 2025.The AUD/USD rallied by 1.3% from Monday, 27 October, to hit a two-week high of 0.6611 on Wednesday, 29 October, before the Aussie bulls dwindled and gave way to a broad-based US dollar rebound due to Fed Chair Powell’s “lack of conviction” speech on a December rate cut during the ex-post FOMC press conference.So far, all the gains seen from 27 October to 29 October have been wiped out on the AUD/USD ahead of today’s RBA meeting. Let’s now examine the various macro and technical factors that may impact the movement of the AUD/USD.RBA may turn less dovish in November and December zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Australia Q3 2025 core CPI, Sep 2025 monthly CPI & RBA cash rate as of 4 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Australian central bank (RBA) has cut its policy cash rate three times by 25 basis points each so far in 2025, in February, May, and August. Lowering the cash rate from a 13-year high of 4.35% in January 2025 to its current level of 3.6%.After nearly three years of easing price pressures, Australia’s inflation trend appears to be turning higher again. Core CPI accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 from 2.7% in the previous quarter, while the monthly CPI indicator climbed to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August (see Fig. 1).The hotter-than-expected data, coupled with easing U.S.–China trade tensions following last week’s economic accord in South Korea, could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to hit pause on its rate-cut cycle at today's, 4 November, and December monetary policy meetings.Against this backdrop, the Australian dollar may find renewed support as widening rate differentials work in its favour.Growth in Australia’s services sector has picked up zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Australia Manufacturing & Services PMIs as of Oct 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Australia’s services sector is the dominant part of the Australian economy, accounting for close to 60% of annual GDP, which includes key industries such as health, education, and finance.The latest S&P Global Services PMI, a forward-looking gauge of business activity, rose to 53.1 in October 2025 from 52.4 in September, signalling a faster pace of expansion (see Fig. 2).Stronger export demand for services helped offset continued softness in manufacturing. This improvement in the services sector reduces the urgency for further RBA rate cuts, reinforcing expectations that policymakers may pause easing in the coming months.Let’s now focus on the latest technical analysis elements, short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), and short-term key levels to watch for AUD/USD.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Potential push up above 20-day moving average zoom_out_map Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 4 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) Bullish bias above 0.6530/0.6515 key short-term pivotal support (also the gap formed on Monday, 27 October), and a clearance above 0.6560 (also the 50-day moving average) may trigger a short-term push up to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 0.6595 and 0.6620/0.6630 (see Fig. 3).Key elements The recent weakness of the AUD/USD seen on Friday, 31 October, and Monday, 3 November, has managed to find support at the 20-day moving average and the lower boundary of a minor ascending channel from the 14 October 2025 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/USD has continued to hover above its ascending trendline support after it hit an oversold reading (below 30) on last Thursday, 30 October.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 0.6515 key short-term support on the AUD/USD invalidates the bullish recovery scenario for an extension of the minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support at 0.6475 and 0.6445 (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (03/11/2025): In today’s episode, we join Senior Market Analyst for OANDA, Kelvin Wong, and podcast host Jonny Hart to discuss the current risk-on bullish momentum, as seen in Asian equity performance early this week. Otherwise, we discuss recent dollar upside and look ahead to this week's trading. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

EU ECB Rate of Deposit Facility (October 2025): 2.00% vs 2.00% expected, meets consensusEU ECB Main Refinancing Operation Rate (October 2025): 2.15% vs 2.15% expected, meets consensus The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation remains close to the 2% medium-term target and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged. The economy has continued to grow despite the challenging global environment. The robust labour market, solid private sector balance sheets and the Governing Council’s past interest rate cuts remain important sources of resilience. However, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions. Monetary Policy Decisions, European Central Bank (ECB), 30/10/2025 Breaking: The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained rates at 2.00% in its October 2025 decision, meeting market expectations.Key takeaway: Maintaining rates for three consecutive meetings, inflation in the eurozone nears the target of 2.00%, unlike in other developed economies. As such, markets don’t expect any change to rates until mid-2026 unless fundamentals change, especially regarding exports, which make up a large share of the EU economy. Markets now look towards the ECB press conference: EU ECB Press Conference, 13:45 GMT Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Falling under 1.32000 yesterday, GBP/USD currently trades 1.3176, down -0.13%.Succumbing to selling pressure, yesterday’s session goes on record as cable’s worst daily performance in thirty-four days.GBP/USD now looks for support both at monthly lows and the 200-day SMA, or will risk a further move to the downside.What’s next for GBP/USD?Let’s discuss.GBP/USD: Key takeaways 30/10/2025 While still up around 5.40% year-to-date, owing mainly to dollar downside as opposed to pound strength, GBP/USD has recently fallen to 5-month lows of 1.31400Later this week, an Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) assessment is expected to rein in productivity estimates for the UK economy, boding poorly for investor sentiment on the UK economy, weighing harshly on sterling pricingBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has recently acknowledged softening labour conditions and poor economic growth, but will be hard-pressed to cut rates in the upcoming decision, while inflation is nigh on twice the target of 2% Read about Q3 earnings season: U.S. Companies Surprise with Strong Sales ResultsGBP/USD: Cable under tension As an Englishman, I can say that the collective feeling amongst the British public regarding the UK economy currently leaves much to be desired.The highest inflation of any G7 nation, rising unemployment, and, at best, a middling economy.Safe to say, things are not looking too peachy going into Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' budget next month, which is almost sure to raise taxes in some capacity.Put simply, the current outlook for the UK economy, particularly in terms of public finances, is less than stellar, which is encouraging those to sell sterling in favour of other currencies.Let’s take a look at two headline macroeconomic themes within GBP/USD markets. zoom_out_map British Pound Currency Index (BXY) & US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), D1, TVC, TradingView, 30/10/2025 GBP/USD: Fundamental Analysis 30/10/2025 Markets are nervous of UK fiscal woes: While the public finances of many developed nations are currently somewhat dubious at best, this is particularly true for the United Kingdom, with a multibillion-pound hole that needs to be addressed by the upcoming budget in November.While developments concerning the budget continue to do the media rounds, which will inevitably only increase as November 26th approaches, Rachel Reeves is stuck between a rock and a hard place, between honoring campaign pledges not to raise taxes on working people and VAT while simultaneously needing to find an estimated £30bn to balance spending with tax income.To make matters worse, and coming at an inopportune time for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, an assessment to be released on Friday by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to substantially downgrade UK productivity forecasts, resulting in a further estimate of £20 billion in shortfall.Not to mention: government borrowing also exceeded estimates in the first half of 2025 by £7.2bn as per last week’s OBR commentary.Tying this back to GBP/USD, however, is remarkably simple: the fiscal health of the UK economy appears to be worsening, and investors are collectively demanding a higher level of risk premium to hold sterling-denominated assets.This fundamental downgrade in sterling’s rating when compared to other stores of wealth is what has led, in no small part, to recent GBP/USD downside. The UK economy is at serious risk of stagflation. Granted, the term is often used loosely, but stagflation is a genuine concern for the UK economy. Currently, the Bank of England is faced with a serious ‘catch-22’: Rising unemployment, now at 4.8%, its highest level since July 2021Poor GDP growth, with recent estimates for Q2 at a measly 0.3%Stubborn inflation, at 3.8% YoY in September and, crucially, almost double the 2.0% target Naturally, the top two bullets would support the notion of cutting rates, while stubborn inflation would support hiking, putting Governor Andrew Bailey and his team of decision makers in an inevitable position.While the Bank of England is due to vote on monetary policy on November 6th, most predict their hand will be forced in maintaining rates at 4.00%, owing to recent inflation trends. zoom_out_map UK Interest Rates, investing.com 30/10/2025 By extension, a decision to hold would put further pressure on an already weak UK labour market and economy, which seems to be a conclusion the markets have already come to, with the first possibility of a rate cut expected to be in February 2026 at the time of writing.At least one outcome of the above is the apparent decline in sterling value, with the current situation for the Bank of England enough to spook investors into rethinking their exposure to GBP.GBP/USD: Technical Analysis 30/10/2025GBP/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map GBP/USD, D1, OANDA, TradingView, 30/10/2025 Having traded in range for some time, recent downside could be enough to break consolidation to the downside.Fair to say, recent performance is decisively bearish, with a pin bar forming in yesterday’s session that bears will look to fill today.Now with 5-month lows of 1.31400 and the 200-day SMA, GBP/USD will need to find support or risk a further move down: Price targets and support/resistance levels:Price target/Resistance #1 - $1.31403 - Triple bottom lowsPrice target/Resistance #2 - $1.31011 - April highs/structureSupport #1 - $1.32904 - Previous consolidation Read Łukasz’s analysis on US equities in today’s session: U.S. Companies Surprise with Strong Sales Results Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Microsoft (MSFT) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Azure Momentum and the High-Stakes CapEx NarrativeAlphabet (GOOG) is scheduled to report its financial results for the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 after the market closes on Wednesday, October 29, 2025.This earnings report is happening while the stock is doing very well, having recently surged near record high prices above $268 and is close to the $270 target price set by several market analysts.The results are highly anticipated because they will give investors a good look at how effective Alphabet's huge spending on infrastructure (CapEx) is proving to be in the worldwide competition for Artificial Intelligence (AI) leadership.What to Expect? Markets generally expect Alphabet to show strong sales growth but believe its profits will be held back by high spending on investments.Analysts predict the company's total sales (revenue) for Q3 2025 will be around $99.75 billion to $99.9 billion. If they can hit $100 billion, it would be a huge symbolic milestone, the first time Alphabet has reached that quarterly revenue level, proving their growth is robust. This forecast suggests sales will increase by about 13.0% to 13.4% compared to last year.However, the profit per share (EPS) is expected to be a more modest $2.28, which is only a 7.1% to 8.0% increase. This gap, lots of new revenue but slower profit growth is the key takeaway. It shows the financial squeeze caused by the company's aggressive spending.The market accepts this trade-off, understanding that Alphabet is temporarily sacrificing higher profits to pay for the massive infrastructure needed to build its future and lead the AI race.It is important to note that the strong momentum from Q2 2025, where Alphabet exceeded expectations ($96.43 billion revenue and $2.31 EPS) , sets a high bar for Q3 performance. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG, Created by Zain Vawda Investors will be closely checking two main areas: how well the Google Cloud Platform (GCP) is operating, and how strong the core Google Services (mainly Search) business remains.Cloud Growth and Capacity Problems Google Cloud's performance is crucial for proving that the company's huge spending on AI is worthwhile, with sales expected to jump by about 30%. Although demand is clearly strong, a major risk is a reported "lack of capacity." If Google Cloud fails to hit its target of around $14.7 billion, the market will blame the company's operations, not weak customer demand.Essentially, it means Google isn't building its infrastructure fast enough to handle the existing AI demand. This would raise serious doubts about whether the massive spending program is being managed efficiently to keep up with rivals like Microsoft Azure.Protecting the Search Business The Google Services division, mostly powered by Search ads, is expected to grow by about 10%. Even with this growth, the core search business is under threat from new AI competition like ChatGPT. Other AI tools are partnering with big retailers (like Shopify and Walmart) to let users buy things directly, bypassing Google Search entirely.To counter this, management needs to show that the new AI features in Search (like AI Overviews and AI Mode) are keeping users engaged and successfully maintaining, or even boosting, the revenue generated from commercial searches.The AI Spending Trade-Off The number one concern for market participants is the high cost of leading the AI race. Management previously increased its spending plan for the full year 2025 by $10 billion, bringing the total commitment to an unprecedented $85 billion. This massive investment is needed to pay for specialized AI infrastructure, including advanced servers and data centers. Analysts believe this spending could top $100 billion in 2026.This huge cost is squeezing the company's immediate profits. To satisfy the market, management must do more than just say demand is high; they need to show quantifiable data proving that the new $85 billion investment is quickly making high-value services in Cloud and Search more profitable.If Alphabet fails to show that this huge spending is generating adequate returns on investment (ROI), the stock will likely face strong negative pressure, even if total sales figures look good. The company's large-scale global investments, like the recent $15 billion infrastructure project in India, demonstrate its resolve to compete globally and strengthen Google Cloud's presence in Asia.Potential Implications for Alphabet Share Price Alphabet's stock has rallied so strongly leading up to the earnings report thanks to good AI news and less regulatory pressure, the market is essentially expecting perfect results. This high anticipation means the stock is facing a high-stakes, all-or-nothing event, with a large potential movement of 6% up or down after the announcement.The Good News (Bullish) Scenario: For the stock to jump higher, Alphabet needs to do two things. First, it must hit that symbolic $100 billion revenue goal and confirm that Google Cloud is growing strongly (over 30%). Second, management needs to sound confident that they can keep profits steady in the next quarter (Q4 2025) despite the massive spending (CapEx). Strong details on how efficiently they are using their new AI infrastructure are crucial.The Bad News (Bearish) Scenario: For the stock to fall, they would likely miss the $99.9 billion revenue target, report weak Cloud growth because of capacity problems, or issue a poor profit outlook for Q4 due to uncontrolled spending. Since the stock has climbed so quickly, any disappointment could cause a major drop, confirming fears that the price went up "too far, too fast."Ultimately, the most important part of the report won't be the sales and profit numbers for the quarter they just finished, but the forecast they give for Q4 2025 and 2026, particularly how fast they plan to spend on AI and when that spending will start making money.Alphabet (GOOG) Daily Chart, October 28, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.