Week in review – Were the past few weeks just a farce? Markets rebounded as if nothing happened – Nvidia (NVDA) earnings came to save the trend as the narrative was switching to a general AI-Bubble scare.The earnings brought back confidence into the Market, and this feeling got exacerbated by a brand new dovish repricing after last Friday's speech by NY Fed President John Williams, who signaled his "support for a rate cut in the near-term". zoom_out_map Pricing for the December 10 FOMC Meeting – Source: FedWatch Tool This sentiment was further confirmed by not-so-hot (late) September US PPI and Retail Sales and honestly weak Weekly Private Jobs data from ADP.Cryptos bounced back timidly, with Bitcoin regaining the $92,000 level but rejecting it in the early afternoon, but the most impressive really were the Metals, all back to their cycle highs, and Stocks which almost erased their entire 3-week drop in the matter of a few days, with all US Indices posting gains today to close an already strong week.Volumes have been low throughout the week, a classic of Thanksgiving trading. Therefore, some of these moves might get retested as large traders coming back from their breaks may move prices quite aggressively – Things will get confirmed Monday.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes zoom_out_map Weekly Asset Performance – What's going with Oil? November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView In terms of Central Bank communication, not much changed except for a very divided Bank of Japan, leading to another, less ardent Yen selloff. A December rate hike becomes more and more probable (now priced at roughly 56%) as yesterday's Tokyo inflation came in hotter than expected, keeping pressure on the BoJ to normalize policy.But markets did receive some better geopolitical headlines: The light is at the end of the tunnel for the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with talks accelerating. Steve Witkoff, US Envoy, will travel to Moscow next week to discuss the revised peace proposal, and Zelenskyy is expecting to discuss with the US "in the near future" as negotiations progress on a new framework. Discover More:Can Platinum catch up to Gold? Platinum (XPT/USD) Price ForecastJapan amid monetary and fiscal shift – will the yen regain strength?OPEC+: What to Expect from the Upcoming MeetingThe Week Ahead – Final stretches of Economic data before the December FOMCAsia Pacific Markets – All eyes on Bank of Japan's Ueda and the Australian GDP Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have bounced higher to close this calm FX week, with Aussie and Kiwi data still tenace (particularly for Australia).NZD/USD posts a major reversal higher after the RBNZ Cut – Technical OutlookAUD will be on the spotlight as the latest CPI report for Australia came red-hot (3.8% y/y), with hopes for cuts flying away from the continuous strong inflation numbers.So keep an eye on the GDP report for Australia, releasing Wednesday evening in between PMI and Trade Balance releases.The Yen, which hasn't grabbed enough attention in the past few months, will once again also be at the center of the scene as the week won't even have begun for North Americans. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will appear at a Business Leaders conference in Nagoya Sunday evening, with comments regarding his recent meeting with PM Takaichi and the blushing Japanese CPI.Europe and UK Markets – Inflation reports and EU data flood Markets are turning the page on the UK Budget which had taken quite some attention throughout the FX space and brought some renewed demand for the Pound, back above the 1.32 Level against the US Dollar.Inflation data throughout the European continent will put both the EUR and CHF in action. The European HICP is taking place on Tuesday at 6:00 A.M., while the Swiss inflation (closely watched for the next SNB decision) releases on Wednesday at 3:30 A.M.The Swiss National Bank has been reflecting on a potential cut below 0% if Swiss inflation remains subdued, once again struck with small deflation in the past months. This has led a fair weakening of the CHF.For the rest, a lot of growth Data will also be released for the Eurozone, with their PPI, Retail Sales and GDP going back to back to back towards the end of the week.North America – Jerome Powell, Final Data for the Fed and a return of Canadian Dollar strength? Canada has finally began to show upside to their ever-weakening growth data, posting a gigantic 2.6% (exp at 0.5%) Annualized Q3 GDP this morning (!), the previous was at -1.8% just to put things in perspective.This combined with pre-occuring US Dollar weakness has taken USD/CAD to new lows to close the Thanksgiving week.With American traders coming back to their screens, we should see if this week's flows get anchored. Expect hesitation until Friday's PCE release.For other data points, US and Canadian PMIs will occupying NA traders from Monday to Thursday. US-Canada talks are still in a limbo.Of course, don't forget the Monthly ADP Private Jobs release on Tuesday, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Canadian Employment Data releasing Friday morning.Monday morning should be active for Markets with Fed's Powell participating in a panel discussion – Nevertheless, the FOMC is in a blackout period so he shouldn't speak much regarding the following week's decision. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

BOJ may raise interest rates further, signaling a historic move away from decades of zero and negative rates and potentially strengthening the yen.Japan’s government introduces a controlled fiscal stimulus package while trying to maintain credibility and avoid panic-level debt expansion.Geopolitical tensions with China and shifting Fed policy could significantly influence capital flows, risk sentiment, and the yen’s future trajectory. The Japanese economy is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, yet at the same time a potential historic turning point in monetary and fiscal policy. Market attention is currently focused on the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which is gradually moving away from its ultra-low interest rate policy. Meanwhile, the government in Tokyo is implementing the largest stimulus measures in years, and the geopolitical situation in the region is becoming increasingly tense. All of these factors may, in the coming quarters, shift the yen’s status from one of the weakest currencies in the world to an asset once again sought after by investors.BOJ in the spotlight – market pricing in a shiftThe Bank of Japan currently maintains interest rates at 0.5%, the highest level in over 30 years. This marks a symbolic departure from the era of zero and negative interest rates that defined Japan’s monetary policy for decades. Expectations are increasingly building that BOJ’s December meeting could result in another rate hike, particularly in light of bond market data. zoom_out_map Japan's interest rates during last 30 years, source: TradingView Bond market signals stress zoom_out_map 2-year Japanese bond yield, source: TradingView The latest auction of 2-year government bonds revealed mounting tensions in the short-term debt segment. Demand was weaker than usual (bid-to-cover of 3.53 versus the average of 3.66), and the difference between the highest accepted and the average price rose to 0.012 (compared to 0.002 a month earlier). The yield on 2-year bonds reached 0.975%, the highest since 2008. This is a clear signal that the market is reluctant to engage in low-yield securities given the possibility of further rate hikes.Fiscal stimulus, but “controlled”In parallel, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government approved an additional fiscal package worth 18.3 trillion yen. The funds are intended for households and increased military spending. The program is financed mainly through short-term debt – the issuance of 2- and 5-year bonds will increase by 300 billion JPY, and treasury bills by 6.3 trillion JPY. Additionally, higher-than-expected tax revenue and unspent funds from the previous year will be used.Although short-term debt will rise nominally, total debt issuance for the 2025/26 fiscal year will fall to 40.3 trillion JPY from 42.1 trillion the year before. The government aims to demonstrate that it is conducting responsible fiscal policy, avoiding a return to pandemic-era excess.Geopolitical factors Increase risk aversionJapan’s economy, however, may encounter external obstacles. Deteriorating relations with China – especially in the context of Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks about readiness to respond militarily in the event of aggression toward Taiwan – are raising serious investor concerns. Goldman Sachs estimates that a decline in tourism from China could lower GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points, while restrictions on the export of consumer goods could reduce it by another 0.1 percentage points. A potential escalation of sanctions could have a much larger and difficult-to-quantify impact.Yen in retreat – but for how long?In the last quarter, the yen weakened by 5.6% against the dollar, becoming the weakest currency among the G10. The prevailing narratives in the market are expectations that the BOJ will refrain from raising rates and that Japan will lose control over its public debt. However, both of these assumptions are beginning to lose relevance. zoom_out_map USDJPY daily timeframe, source: TradingView Morgan Stanley strategists estimate that the USD/JPY rate around 157 is clearly overstated relative to fundamentals. Their base scenario assumes the pair falling to 140 in Q1 2026, followed by a rebound toward 147 by the end of the year. Key factors are expected to be Fed rate cuts and falling U.S. bond yields, which would weaken the dollar and trigger capital outflows from the U.S.Three scenarios for the Yen:BOJ rate hike in December:The yen strengthens, yields rise, and the carry-trade strategy becomes less attractive. USD/JPY may fall toward 152.BOJ remains passive:The yen weakens again, and USD/JPY may rise to 158–160. The risk of currency intervention by authorities increases.The Fed decides on another rate cut:The dollar weakens, investors withdraw from U.S. bonds, and the yen gains as a safe-haven currency. USD/JPY may drop to around 140–145.Yen at a Critical Turning Point?Japan is at an inflection point in both monetary and fiscal policy. For the first time in decades, the Bank of Japan is seriously considering rate hikes, while the government is stimulating the economy in a controlled manner, avoiding signals of fiscal panic. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and changing Fed sentiment in the U.S. are creating a new reality for investors.All of this may cause the yen – recently marginalized and weak – to become once again a sought-after currency among global market participants. The key issue, however, will be whether the BOJ decides to send a clear signal of monetary policy normalization before the Fed does – otherwise, Japan may miss the moment to regain investor confidence. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This Thanksgiving week is closing on a pretty interesting setup for when traders return on Monday.US Stocks are completing their fourth day higher in today’s short session, metals are rallying back towards their all-time highs, cryptos are recovering from the dead, and the US Dollar is taking another hit.A familiar picture for 2025 Market Flows – The Debasement Trade could be making its way back.Today’s short session marks the end of November; therefore, the daily closes will be closely monitored for the year-end flows (Month-end sessions are traditionally key for Markets).Keep an eye on any unusually high volumes around noon as traders prepare to enter December. zoom_out_map US High-Tier events all the way to the December FOMC Meeting – Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar In this unusual format, we’ll take a look at the outperformers of today’s session – The Market is getting ready for next week’s final pieces of data as traders brace for the December 10th FOMC meeting.Next week will see the release of US PMIs (Manufacturing on Tuesday and Services on Wednesday), and even more importantly, the Core PCE (December 5), which will be the last indicator to determine whether the Fed will cut or not. Read More:Can Platinum catch up to Gold? Platinum (XPT/USD) Price ForecastMarkets Today: CME Glitch Halts Trading, German Retail Sales Fall, Ukraine-Russia in Focus, FTSE 100 Back Above 100-day MAUS Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookDow Jones closes near 48,000, up 4.38% this week zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart, November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Stock Market is back on its high heels in Today's short session with virtually all sectors green except for Google, Nvidia Apple and Healthcare. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (11:43 A.M.) – November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold is back above $4,200, $70 from its all-time highs and up 4% this week zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver – Booming higher to a new ATH $56.00 – Up 12% this week! zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin ends the week $12,000 higher zoom_out_map BTC/USD 4H Chart, November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView The picture in Cryptos is looking a bit more healthy after struggling the entire month.Take a look at Key levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum right here:The Crypto Bloodbath Stalls: Is a Bottom In? Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Not the most commonly traded precious metal, Platinum is starting to gather significant attention from market participants as it begins to outpace its peers. Even more scarce than gold, platinum boasts crucial industrial utility, particularly in the automotive industry for catalytic converters, as well as in the industrial, medical, and electronics sectors.Compared to the yellow metal, platinum doesn't hold the same central bank demand as a store of value. Nevertheless, its industrial use, rarity, and historical correlation to gold make it an intriguing asset to trade, especially amidst the yearly frenzy around precious metals. The Gold-to-Platinum ratio, which has historically hovered between 1.0 and 1.5, has widened dramatically throughout the 2010s and currently stands elevated at roughly 2.50 (with Gold around $4,190 and Platinum near $1,640).While Gold is now back around$4,200 in another strong move higher, Platinum has actively outperformed other metals in the past week, rising close to 2% on the day. This strength is underpinned by persistent supply deficits projected to last through 2029 and transformative market developments like China's launch of new platinum futures contracts, boosting demand even further.Let's dive into a technical analysis for this uncommon trading metal to spot what opportunities XPT/USD (Platinum) has opportunities to offer. Read More:Markets Today: CME Glitch Halts Trading, German Retail Sales Fall, Ukraine-Russia in Focus, FTSE 100 Back Above 100-day MANZD/USD posts a major reversal higher after the RBNZ Cut – Technical OutlookGold (XAU/USD) Price Up 2.5% for the Week. Is a Break of $4200/oz a Certainty?Platinum (XPT/USD) Technical AnalysisPlatinum (XPT/USD) Daily Chart zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) Daily Chart, November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Platinum is initiating a strong impulsive move higher since last Friday, coinciding with the drop in the Dollar and the dovish repricing for the December 10 Meeting.Like other metals, Platinum demand is strongly tied to interest rates (Inverse correlation)A $600 move higher from April to July shaped quite a precedent in Platinum, which had been left on the sidelines throughout the past year.Interest for Platinum dropped again as both Silver and Gold were racing to new all-time highs after August. In such commodity cycles, it is common to see lagging products to the Market which can offer decent trading opportunities.Now, if Platinum manages to reach and break its 2025 record at $1,747, odds of a measured move all the way to $2,100 forms a decent probability of happening.In the meanwhile, keep an eye on the daily highs, Bull channel and yearly highs to spot how the metal reacts to its technical resistances.Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart, November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Platinum is attempting a breakout above the $1,620 to $1,650 Mini-Resistance but is facing overbought RSI conditions which point to some consolidation. Let's see what it needs to get started again on the 1H Timeframe just below.Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels $1,620 to $1,650 Mini-Resistance (breaking)2013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750 ($1,747 2025 Highs)2011 Highs between $1,860 to $1,915$2,100 potential Measured Move target$2,299 2008 All-time highsSupport levelsHourly support at the 50-Day MA $1,575$1,500 Higher timeframe Pivot and Channel Lows, acting as support$1,250 to $1,300 Major 2025 Support$1,000 2010 to 2020 SupportPlatinum (XPT/USD) 1H Chart zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) 1H Chart, November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Platinum has rallied in a tight-bull channel throughout this week, leading to the current session's breakout attempt.With many traders still absent due to Thanksgiving week, low volumes will be needed to keep propulsing the price action higher.Now forming an hourly bearish divergence, odds of a retracement are increasing again.Keep an eye on the rising hourly trendline for potential pullback entries,Breaking the trendline however could signify a larger pullback to the 200-Hour Moving Average at $1,547.Breaking and closing above the session highs maintains high breakout oddsNext week should be key for the precious metal.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 27American traders have taken a break after weeks of volatility, and when the US is off, the entire market feels off.Market participants from around the globe tend to take their day off when US markets are closed, due to a considerably lower amount of transactions, which generates a self-nourishing effect of market boredom.Still, a few pairs and names generated some movement today, counting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on a second day of gains after publishing a strong beat on their Retail Sales number yesterday evening.The Kiwi enjoyed the most recent RBNZ 25 basis point cut to 2.25%, as the market now prices in a cut cycle which is effectively done, with the central bank signaling neutral guidance. NZD/USD has bounced above 2.50% against the greenback in two sessions.Elsewhere, Oil bounced above $59.00, Platinum bounced higher by 2%, and Cryptos also appreciated the calm session, with assets up between 0.20% for Bitcoin to 3% in some altcoins.In terms of geopolitics, Russia's Putin appeared to mention that the US-Ukraine proposition could be the basis of a peace deal, but still insists on terms regarding the official recognition of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russian forces.US Envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow next week in the hope of further discussions. The chances for a conflict resolution before the holidays are still considered quite slim, given the core sticking points on territory and security guarantees. Read More:NZD/USD posts a major reversal higher after the RBNZ Cut – Technical OutlookThe Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical PrecedentNorth American mid-week Market update – December FOMC rate cut hopes saves the MarketCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nothing to see here! The session was a very calm one throughout all markets.Bitcoin still holds above $90,000 in an attempt to rebound. Tomorrow should be more active.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 27 – Source: OANDA Labs As mentioned in the introduction, only the Kiwi demarcated itself today and also dragged its neighbor the AUD higher.The rest of the FX market has stayed very quiet but the session is far from over for those who trade the yen. See why with our calendar review for tomorrow just below. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. JPY traders, will need to brace for a quintessential inflation print that will set the tone for the final month of the year.The evening session will turn the eyes towards Tokyo, where the highly anticipated Tokyo CPI data, the most important for Japan, releases at 19:30 ET.This inflation figure is crucial, as the Bank of Japan is looking for sustained price pressures to justify a rate hike in December. A print near or above the consensus of 2.7% YoY will significantly increase expectations for the BoJ to move to 0.75% soon.Tomorrow's session is promising in terms of fundamentals, offering a high-impact inflation/growth releases across Europe and Canada.The early birds will assist with key Eurozone data, starting with EUR Retail Sales (3:00 A.M. ET), followed by the highly anticipated Preliminary HICP (CPI) data (9:00 A.M. ET).However, the day really starts with the North American session: 9:30 A.M. ET will see the release of Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.This is the sole high-tier North American release, and the market needs to see a rebound in the Q3 Annualized figure (consensus expects 0.5% after the -1.6% contraction in Q2) to reassure the Bank of Canada that the economy is stabilizing.To compliment the data, markets will monitor the ECB's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (8:30 A.M. ET) and comments from ECB's Nagel for further context on the inflation debate.Keep an eye on any major deviations in the inflation prints, as they will dictate policy moves from the BoJ and ECB going into December.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

While US Markets are away for the Thanksgiving holiday, leaving the broader session fairly calm, the FX markets remain open and active, with all eyes turning to the Kiwi Dollar (NZD), posting yet another strong session. zoom_out_map 1-Day FX Performance – NZD demarks itself in the calm Thanksgiving Session – Source: Finviz The Antipodean currency has faced its share of struggles this year, weighed down by a slowing New Zealand economy that proved more sensitive than its neighbor Australia to the slowdown in global trade post-tariffs—a weakness that was starkly evident in a terrible Q2 GDP growth rate of -0.9%.However, after 325 basis points of cuts, the data has started to come back in a flash. New Zealand Retail Sales just posted a strong beat of 1.9% versus the 0.5% expected, a sign of strong recovery that follows stronger inflation prints and improving Manufacturing PMIs. zoom_out_map New Zealand's Main Interest Rate (OCR) since 2020 – Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Adding to the shift in sentiment, RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby mentioned that a future rate cut faces "significant hurdles." This wording sufficed the market to assume that the 2.25% rate is the lower bound for the Kiwi rate, with markets now pricing rates to stay put throughout 2026. This fundamental pivot is a clear sign of renewed strength for the NZD, which is up 2.65% against the US Dollar since last Friday.Let's look at the major Kiwi pair, NZD/USD, to spot where that takes the action looking forward. Read More:Markets Today: German Consumer Sentiment Improves, Gold Holds Near 2-Week Highs, Thanksgiving Holiday in the USNorth American mid-week Market update – December FOMC rate cut hopes saves the MarketUS Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookNZD/USD Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map NZD/USD Daily Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since July 1st and the comeback of the US Dollar, the NZD/USD has been in a one-way descent, exacerbated by diverging policies between the Fed and the RBNZ.Taking the pair all the way down to a retest of the Liberation Day troughs in a Monthly Downward Channel, the action is now marking a first clear rebound in months.Propulsed by changing fundamentals and bullish daily divergences, the ongoing action is strong and will face hurdles at the 50-Day Moving Average (0.57268) and Channel highs.Still, when looking at how strong the current candles are, these hurdles could be breached soon. For confirmation, look at a session close above the 50-MA.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map NZD/USD 4H Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView The ongoing rally is also facing a few hurdles on the intraday timeframe:Overbought RSI levels within the Pivot Zone (0.5720 to 0.5750) could trigger some small mean-reversion.A retest of the 4H-MA 200 (0.5690) could see higher probability for the action to continue its path higher.NZD/USD Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels (NZDUSD)Main Support turned Pivot 0.5720 to 0.5750 (testing)Daily highs 0.57300.58 Key Resistance0.59 (+/- 150 pips) ResistanceSupport levels4H 200 MA at 0.5690October Rebound Support at 0.5660 to 0.574H 50-period MA 0.56385January 2025 Support 0.56501H Chart zoom_out_map NZD/USD 1H Chart, November 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking even closer, the action is strongly following the 20-Hour MA at 0.57140; A break below would point to a retest of the 4H MA 200 mentioned on the 4H TimeframeA break and close above the Daily highs (0.5730) will then face a 100-pip resistance to breakout of the Weekly bear ChannelAbove this, the next Resistance is 600 pips higher.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Up 2.5% for the Week. Is a Break of $4200/oz a Certainty?Foreign exchange (FX) intervention in Japan is defined by a unique division of labor where the Bank of Japan (BoJ) acts strictly as an agent for the Ministry of Finance (MOF). FX policy is fundamentally a fiscal decision, executed under the authority of the Minister of Finance to "contain excessive fluctuations" and stabilize exchange rates deemed inconsistent with economic fundamentals.Operational Mechanics How the Process WorksWho Decides? The Ministry of Finance (MOF) is the boss. They decide if and how to intervene after looking closely at the currency market.Who Executes? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) handles the actual buying and selling of currency, following the MOF's specific orders.Where Does the Money Come From?To Make the Yen Stronger (Buying Yen): The MOF uses the government’s existing foreign currency reserves (money saved in U.S. dollars, etc.).To Make the Yen Weaker (Selling Yen): The MOF has to borrow yen by issuing special government debt called Financing Bills (FBs).Controlling the Money Supply: Even when the BoJ carries out the trade, it makes sure these currency operations don't mess up its main goal of controlling the country's money supply. The intervention is factored into its daily financial planning.Why Interventions Work (or Don't)Currency intervention works in two main ways:Portfolio Balance (Changing the Supply): This involves changing the amount of different assets (like yen vs. dollars) available in the market.Signaling (Changing Expectations): This is when the government sends a strong message to traders about what future economic policy will be.The Big Problem for Japan: Japan has had near-zero interest rates (ZIRP) for a very long time.Normally, actions that change the money supply (unsterilized intervention) are very effective.However, under ZIRP, cash and short-term government debt are viewed as almost the same thing. This means changing the money supply doesn't have its usual big impact.The Key to Success: Because the first method is weakened, the success of Japan's currency intervention depends almost entirely on the Signaling channel. The government must show strong credibility and commitment to back up its currency trades with future policy action.The Limit: Intervention cannot permanently overcome powerful economic forces, such as the persistent difference between Japan's low interest rates and higher rates in other countries. It is only a temporary tool to reduce quick and extreme price swings.Key Historical Interventions Japan has historically executed interventions for two distinct purposes:JPY-Weakening (2003–2004): This phase involved selling JPY and buying vast quantities of USD to prevent the yen's rapid appreciation, which was perceived as a hinderance to the fledgling economic recovery. The scale was record-breaking, totaling approximately ¥35 trillion (USD 340 billion) over 15 months, an amount equating to roughly 7% of Japanese GDP. This massive, concentrated scale was essential to generate a persistent, temporary impact on the exchange rate by leveraging the signaling channel.JPY-Strengthening (2022 and 2024): Facing extreme depreciation driven by widening interest rate differentials, the MOF executed its first "buy-yen" intervention since 1998 on September 22, 2022, selling USD and buying JPY worth ¥2,838.2 billion.Japanese Yen Index, Daily Chart zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Similar apparent actions were taken in April/May 2024. In this modern context, intervention serves strategically to dampen imported inflation and buy time for the BoJ to execute its cautious, gradual monetary normalization path focused on achieving sustainable, wage-led inflation.The Current Dynamic, USD/JPY In recent weeks there has been a lot of chatter around possible FX intervention from Japanese officials. In the past, comments made by officials at times did the job as it served to strengthen the Japanese Yen.Market participants have gotten wiser over time and nowadays tend to ignore comments. This means only action will suffice if the BoJ are really concerned about the value of the Yen.USD/JPY Daily Chart, November 27, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Extend Gains Most Read: Markets are back in Euphoria – Market Wrap for the North American session - November 26Asian stock markets generally performed well on Thursday. The overall MSCI All Country World Index continued its positive streak, rising for the fifth day in a row. This recent performance has helped limit its total loss for November to just 0.5%, following seven straight months of gains before that.Asian stocks specifically saw a rise of 0.5% on Thursday, which narrowed their November loss to 2%. Japan's Nikkei index performed strongly, surging by more than 1%. Other markets also moved up, with Taiwan's index rising 0.5% for what could be its fourth day of gains, and Singapore adding 0.4%.Meanwhile, shares in Jakarta initially hit a new record high of 8,622.268 before changing direction and trading 0.3% lower, despite having increased by nearly 2% over the previous four days.China’s attention was focused on the property sector after China proposed deferring payments on a local bond, causing some of its notes to fall to record lows.German Consumer Morale Shows Improvement Consumer confidence in Germany saw a slight improvement as the country headed into December 2025.The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator increased from -24.1 to -23.2, which was exactly what market analysts had predicted. People felt more willing to buy things for the second month in a row leading up to the holiday season, returning to the level seen a year ago. However, the desire to save money slightly decreased. On the downside, views on the future of the economy became slightly pessimistic, and hopes for future income turned negative, suggesting that family finances are still under pressure.Overall, consumer sentiment is now nearly the same as it was the previous year, which is seen as good news for retailers, indicating that Christmas sales should be stable.However, an expert noted that while consumers are holding up well, they don't expect the economy to get significantly better anytime soon.European Session - European Shares Flat European stocks were mostly flat or slightly down on Thursday, pausing after three days of increases.Investors were feeling optimistic earlier in the week due to growing hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates next month, supported by recent economic data suggesting a weaker economy, and positive signs regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. The overall pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.2% but is still trading near its highest point for the week.Key national markets like London's FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX were also flat or slightly lower. The biggest news was for the sportswear company Puma, whose shares jumped 13% following reports that the Chinese company Anta Sports Products might be interested in buying them out.With US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday and set for a shorter session on Friday, attention today will also turn to the release of the minutes from the last meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB).On the FX front, the US dollar was generally losing value on Thursday and was headed for its biggest weekly drop in four months, partly because trading was slow ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.Market participants are looking ahead to next year, considering that the US might be the only major economy preparing to cut interest rates.The Japanese yen gained slightly against the dollar, supported by recent more aggressive statements from officials at the Bank of Japan.The euro slipped back a little to $1.1590 after briefly reaching a high point for the last week and a half. The Australian dollar continued its gains following a higher-than-expected inflation report on Wednesday, which suggests that interest rate cuts may also be off the table there.Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan held steady at 7.08 per dollar, thanks to intervention from China's central bank.Finally, the British pound rose to its highest level since late October and was on track for its best weekly performance since August, as the recently announced UK budget eased some worries about the country's finances.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday. This small drop was mainly due to growing hopes that a ceasefire might happen between Ukraine and Russia. If a peace deal is reached, it could lead to the removal of Western sanctions against Russia, allowing more Russian oil to enter the global market, which would increase supply and lower prices.However, trading in oil was expected to be very light and slow because markets in the United States are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.Specifically, Brent crude oil futures dropped by 12 cents (0.2%) to 63.01 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 5 cents (0.1%) to 58.6 a barrel.Gold prices remained stable on Thursday, staying close to the highest level they've reached in the past two weeks. Market participants were closely watching and trying to determine the chances that the US central bank might cut interest rates when it meets in December.Spot gold (gold available for immediate delivery) was steady at $4,165.24/oz. Meanwhile, US gold futures (contracts for future delivery in December) saw a very small drop of 0.1%, settling at $4,162.20/oz.Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Price Up 2.5% for the Week. Is a Break of $4200/oz a Certainty?Silver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet one moving forward, with a lack of high impact data releases.With US markets closed for Thanksgiving, there will be much less trading activity (liquidity) today. This quiet environment might be a good opportunity for Japanese authorities to step in and try to lower the value of the US dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY).However, they might still prefer to wait for news that is bad for the dollar before intervening, and since the USD/JPY rate has already stopped moving higher, the sense of urgency for them to act has decreased. Although the dollar is still somewhat highly valued compared to other major currencies (G10), its value has already dropped quite a bit this week.Since there isn't much major economic news expected until more data is released, i am neutral on the US dollar for this holiday period. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has continued its recovery but has run into resistance provide by the 100-day MA.A brief foray above the 100-day MA failed to gain acceptance.A pullback now faces support at 9622 (200-day MA) and the 9550 handle which could prove a tough nut to crack for bears.The RSI period-14 remains above the 50 mark which is a sign of bullish momentum.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 27. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 26As said in our Tuesday Market Wrap, The tides turn fast in Markets!The narrative quickly came from the end of the World as we know it to an ecstatic mood.US Stock Indexes have now recovered close to 75% of their mid-October to mid-November correction, and even the bloodshed Cryptocurrencies are rallying back.The Thanksgiving week is known to be positive for risk-assets, but the up-and-down reminds Traders of one thing:Volatility is here and it's here to stay – At least until the Fed actually takes a decisive route to the neutral rate.FX Markets have also seen some strong movement, particularly with the GBP appreciating from the latest UK Budget and the NZD rallying back from the NZ Cut cycle being potentially done after 300 bps of total reduction. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (Session Close) – November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:North American mid-week Market update – December FOMC rate cut hopes saves the MarketThe UK autumn budget, sterling rallies and US jobs impressUS stocks turn green for the pre-Thanksgiving trading sessionCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Today was a classic Sell the Dollar, Buy Everything session, with almost every asset higher and the risk-on assets running higher.Take a look at how Bitcoin and Nasdaq rallied frantically towards the beginning of the North American session.Next Monday, when usual volumes return, will be a test for the Market.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 26 – Source: OANDA Labs The NZD was as said in the introduction a gigantic performer in today's session, and dragged the Australian Dollar with it.For the rest, apart from the JPY and the USD, harsh losers of the session, FX performance stayed muted. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not over yet for NZD and AUD traders, who have immediate data to digest before the Thanksgiving lull hits North American markets.NZD traders are bracing for the Retail Sales (Q3) release, which is imminent. With the RBNZ having just cut rates, this data will confirm if consumer spending is finally stabilizing.Later this evening, AUD traders will watch Private Capital Expenditure (20:30 ET) to gauge business investment appetite.Tomorrow's session (Thursday) will be quieter in terms of volume due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, but Europe still has stories to tell.The early morning puts the spotlight on European sentiment with the German GfK Consumer Climate (03:00 A.M. ET) followed by the broader Eurozone Economic Sentiment (06:00 A.M. ET).Traders should also keep an eye on the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (08:30 A.M. ET) for insights into the internal debate on rate cuts.The North American Session will be very thin with US markets closed. The only actionable data comes from Canada with the Current Account (09:30 A.M. ET) release. Liquidity will likely be low, so be wary of erratic moves.The evening will however be the most important:Tokyo CPI data will heat up the session at 19:30 ET. This is a massive release for the Yen. With inflation holding near 2.7-2.8%, a hot number here would ramp up expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in December.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.North American markets have been subject to wild swings since last week, oscillating violently between a downside panic in Stock Markets and a consequent, gigantic rebound that kicked off on Friday. The US Dollar mirrored this volatility, posting a strong rebound all the way to the psychological 100.00 level before retracting.The reason behind this turbulence is the primary mover for all assets right now: FOMC rate pricing. We witnessed a progressive and dramatic shift in expectations, moving from a priced-in 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut, down to a meager 20%, and now whipping back to the current 80% probability. zoom_out_map Evolution of the Fed's Rate Cut odds, November 25, 2025 – Source: Kalshi The volatility was fueled by a clash of narratives: hawkish news initially dominated with increased mentions of inflation risks from the Fed, but this was effectively counteracted by private data showing rising layoffs and softer retail sales yesterday, which put the cuts firmly back on the table. US Stocks, highly sensitive to these swings in the FOMC tone, reacted immediately to this relief, particularlya fter last week's NY Fed Williams' dovish speech.Now that the 25 bps cut seems all but confirmed, the lingering question shifts to the tone of Jerome Powell at the December 10th meeting and whether anything could sway the decision before then. The upcoming PMI reports (December 1 and 2) and most importantly, the Core PCE report (Dec 5) stand as the only real data point with the potential to disrupt the current pricing, as the remaining calendar is filled mostly with weekly claims.Still, keep an eye on the Monthly ADP release which could sway markets quite a bit.In any case, let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USD/CAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView You can see how sharp the rebound has been since Markets welcomed the dovish turn from Fed's Williams.Volatility has been high, so participants can't just expect a smooth way to a December 10 cut!Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 8H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has been correcting since the beginning of this week, breaking lower from its September upwards Channel while forming a double top – It now holds well below the 100.00 level.Check out our multi-currency FX analysis to spot interesting setups in Major Pairs:US Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookLevels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highsTop of channel and psychological level at 101.0099.60 to 99.80 mini-resistance now pivotSupport LevelsHigher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00Mini-support 98.50 and 8H MA 200Main support 98.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, November 26, 2025 - Source: TradingView You can see how sharp the shift has been in the US Dollar.Some currencies like the GBP and NZD have although dragged quite some attention, posting the best performance in Weekly FX.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, November 26, 2025 - Source: TradingView. Story of the CAD – At every rally, there will be a fade.The loonie only appreciated against the weak JPY and CHF, two risk-off currencies.End of week GDP data for Canada will be closely watched, as the no-USA Deal still hurts CAD prospects.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 8H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The USD/CAD was victim to a lot of up-and-down swings throughout the past week, breaking 1.40 before bouncing back higher in a flash.A double top now clearly looms, so keep an eye on this and the Dollar Index to trade the North American Pair.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance LevelsCycle highs 1.4143 and Double topCurrent Resistance between 1.4120 to 1.4145Key resistance 1.4250Support LevelsLiberation Day level around 1.4050, Major PivotMajor Daily Support 1.39 (+/- 200 pips)1.38 Major support +/- 150 pipsAugust range support 1.37501.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Tomorrow will welcome the Thanksgiving Holiday so expect only Canadian Data for the rest of the week.Some data for the CAD will see the Current Account (international trade data) tomorrow at 9:30.But the most important will be the Canadian Q3 GDP releasing Friday at 9:30 A.M. ET which doesn't hold high expectations:A miss will only confirm the pre-existing CAD weakness.A beat however could relaunch prospects for the currency.Stock Markets in the US will be closed tomorrow for the entire day, and will see a partial open on Friday:Equity Markets will be open until 13:00 and US bonds close at 14:00.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (26/11/2025): In today's episode, TraderNick leads the discussion on the UK autumn budget and the subsequent rally in sterling prices. Otherwise, we discuss the narrative surrounding the Fed's December decision, as well jobs number today. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices are currently maintaining a robust uptrend and trading near two-week highs, around the $4150/oz handle. The precious metal is poised to log its fourth consecutive monthly gain, building on a record-setting surge experienced in October that briefly targeted the $4,400 area.The continuation of the bullish rally could be a sign that the current rally still has deep support. The bullish trend is reinforced by technical indicators that confirm strong underlying momentum, following a selloff that allowed some profit taking.Foundational Drivers: The Federal Reserve Pivot Proxy The current rally and supporting Gold’s valuation is the aggressive market expectation of impending monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. Current forecasts indicate an 84% probability of a US interest rate cut in December , with broader market consensus pricing in approximately 90 basis points of easing by the end of 2026. zoom_out_map Source: CME FedWatch Tool Market participants are expecting the FED to start cutting rates despite mixed rhetoric. The expectations do keep the US Dollar (USD) under broad pressure and force US Treasury yields to drift lower. Gold is a beneficiary in this environment as declining real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the metal.These easing expectations are validated by a sequence of disappointing US economic releases, including softer ADP employment numbers, weaker Retail Sales figures, and a notable drop in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading for November. Market participants are continuing a recent trend by actively front-running the central bank’s mandated reaction function.Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is strong.Price action looks favorable with the RSI above 50, a sign of the bullish momentum.Price continues to trade some way away from both the 50 and 100-day MA. This could lead to a short-term pullback at some stage.Given the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US tomorrow, markets could see lower levels of liquidity. This could keep Gold prices rangebound as well.Keep a close watch on Ukraine-Russia developments. Any sign that a deal may be edging close could lead to increased selling pressure on Gold and thus push Gold prices lower.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, November 26, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Gold: Key Near-Term Technical LevelsAs mentioned above, bulls may struggle to break beyond the $4200/ounce heading into the weekend as liquidity is expected to be thin. This is not to say it is not a possibility.Key levels to pay attention to include$4,380, All-Time High/Previous Record High (October 17)$4,220, Critical Breakout Resistance Key threshold for acceleration$4042, Key to Uptrend IntegrityFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBP/JPY is a very popular pair in Forex trading as it captures both risk-on/risk-off dynamics, geographic trends, and rate differential trends.The Yen and Sterling have been subject to some strong dynamics over the past month.In Japan, markets are still concerned with the reckless government spending which the Japanese Prime Minister tried to defend against.The latest development sees PM Sanae Takaichi and her cabinet approving a ¥21 trillion stimulus package—the largest since the COVID era.This fiscal dovishness from the new Prime Minister, historically a negative for currency strength, has been heavily priced in since her appointment. Paradoxically, this may force the Bank of Japan to turn more hawkish, potentially hiking rates sooner to protect against a run on the JPY – The next decision is expected on December 18th.There could still be an intervention from the BoJ which aims at buying back some Yen against other currency reserves.For the Pound, the initial volatility relative to the recent Budget is turning into a positive trend. Despite not pivoting to full austerity (aiming to cut expenses for a better fiscal balance), the budget is perceived as far from reckless.While higher income taxes might dampen consumption slightly, the overall fiscal stance has put the GBP in a decent position, making it the 3rd best performer of today's session.Technically, the pair is at key point. If the current rally extends beyond the 207.00 level, the price action will point directly to a retest of the July 2024 peak.Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis and technical levels for GBP/JPY, a pair that should stay active during the Thanksgiving break. Read More:US stocks turn green for the pre-Thanksgiving trading sessionMarkets Today: RBNZ Cut Rates, Gold Hits Two-Week Highs, FTSE 100 Trades Above 200-day MA Ahead of UK BudgetUS Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookGBP/JPY Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map GBP/JPY Daily Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The pair has evolved in a one-way tight bull channel since November 5, taking prices to overbought RSI levels.Nevertheless, overbought doesn't mean top, particularly as the RSI is still tilting upwards, hence momentum backs the ongoing rebound.One thing to look for on the bigger timeframe is how the market reacts to its entry (or lack thereof) in the 207.00 Resistance:Last week, the action stopped at 206.86 which is the level to keep in mind: Closing above would confirm an entry in the Resistance and targets the 208.120 highs.Below, it could point more to a double-top action and a reversalKeep in mind that the Bank of Japan may intervene during the Thanksgiving break which may also provide a huge move lower. The issue is that the timing for such is unknown.Let's dive into the intraday charts.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map GBP/JPY 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current 4H Candle forms a doji – pointing to a more hesitant price action.A potential trading gameplan could be to look at breakout scenarios:A 4H close above 207.074 should push further into the resistance zone.A push below the 205.526 candle lows hints at further retracement.Levels to watch for GBPJPY trading:Support Levels:4H Candle lows 206.50Post-Election highs 205.33 – Current pivotHigher timeframe Pivot – Current Support 203.00Main key Support 199.00 to 200.00Mid 2025 Support 195.00 to 196.85Resistance Levels:207.00 to 208.00 2024 July highs – Current testSession highs 207.074208.120 July 2024 highs209.50 to 210.50 May 2008 Extremes1H Chart zoom_out_map GBP/JPY 1H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The shorter timeframe points at further balance as the buying stalls on overbought 1H RSI.As mentioned, right before, look at whether markets make a push either for the highs or the lows in a breakout scenario.To avoid fakeouts, a trader can also wait for a 1H or 4H Candle close as confirmation.In case of a bigger retracement, keep an eye on the Hourly uptrend to see if it holds, implying a buy signal or breaks, implying a sell signal.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Market ambiance seems to have taken a decidedly better turn as Americans get ready to celebrate Thanksgiving.It is worth a reminder that Markets will be closed tomorrow and will close early on Friday, therefore expect volumes to taper off significantly as the day progresses.European Stocks have rallied for a third consecutive day, providing a much-needed sentiment kicker for most North American opens: The S&P 500 just broke back above 6,800; Dow Jones is holding strong above 47,000 and Nasdaq is doing the same above 25,000 – Key psychological marks for US indexes.This week was essential, arriving just when the narrative seemed to have turned dark for the end-of-year trading amidst valuation fears, post-earnings "sell-the-news" flows (like Nvidia), and a hawkish Fed scare—a fear that has now substantially eased, with a December cut now 80% expected. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (09:57 A.M.) – November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView While the pre-Thanksgiving session is often a muted but positive one, heading into the two-day break, it will be important to watch how the close shapes up.Post-Thanksgiving weeks historically open both ways as traders get ready for the final month of the year and the final, pivotal Fed meetings, so the real test for Stocks will be next week!Let's dive right into the intraday outlook for all three US Major indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Markets Today: RBNZ Cut Rates, Gold Hits Two-Week Highs, FTSE 100 Trades Above 200-day MA Ahead of UK BudgetUS Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookSilver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionA global Outlook on US Indices zoom_out_map US Main Indices Daily Outlook – All gap higher. November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView It's almost as if nothing happened in the Dow the past two weeks.The Strong bullish up-moves from yesterday's open took the index back above its Pivot Zone and key 50 and 200 Moving Averages, providing it a bullish mid-term outlook.With volumes down this week, a weekly close will still be highly anticipated for traders and sentiment:Above the Pivot Zone (47,000 to 47,200), expect continuation.Within the Pivot Zone, the action should be more rangebound/balanced as Markets await for more releasesBelow, the mid-term outlook is more for a further correction.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,459Next Resistance zone 47,500 - 47,650Psychological resistance at 48,000Support LevelsHigher timeframe pivot 47,000 to 47,20046,000 +/- 300pts Immediate SupportTuesday Lows 45,92545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has completely reversed its past-Thursday drop, dragged higher by strong tech performance (even without much help from Nvidia).Now facing another strong test at the 25,000 to 25,250 Resistance at a confluence with the 4H MA 200, closing above last Thursday's highs will confirm a break above the past week's descending channel.Watch for imminent momentum which has slowed down as US traders get ready for the Thanksgiving holiday.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsResistance 25,000 to 25,250 immediate test, MA 200 and Thursday highsCurrent ATH 26,283 (CFD)Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850Mini-resistance at 25,500 GapSupport Levels24,550 Tuesday lows24,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October lows 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView As the session unrolls, the action is holding around the 6,800 psychological level and once again, it's as if we never really went lower these past few weeks.Bulls have managed to break above the Broad Bear Channel that took the price action down 5% since mid-November.Still, keep an eye on the 6,800 level which steps right at a resistance zone and a retest of the Higher timeframe upwards channel (broken for now).Above 6,815, there won't be much to stop a retest of the all-time highs.Below 6,800 however, some sellers might try to re-enter the pullback higher.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)6,800 Psychological resistance (+/- 10 points)Mid-term resistance 6,860 to 6,880ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,680 to 6,700 Key Support6,570 to 6,600 support4 H MA 50 at 6,7506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Extend Gains Most Read: US Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookThe MSCI All Country World Index continued its recovery for the fourth day in a row, which helped cut its losses from the stock sell-off this month down to only 1.3%. Asian stocks rose significantly by 1.4% following a strong rally on Wall Street.This positive energy seems likely to continue, as futures for both the S&P 500 and European shares suggest further gains are coming. Japan's Nikkei stock index added 1.9%. However, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) fell, causing short-term interest rates (yields) to reach their highest points in 17 years. This happened because investors are worried about the cost of a huge government spending plan and are also considering the possibility that Japan's central bank might raise interest rates soon.Specifically, the rate on the benchmark 10-year JGB rose slightly to 1.805%, while the two-year rate hit 0.975% and the five-year rate reached 1.34% both the highest they have been since June 2008.RBNZ Cuts Rates, Australian Inflation Exceeds Forecasts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its main interest rate (the official cash rate) by a small amount (25 basis points) to 2.25% at its last meeting of the year.This move was widely anticipated and brought borrowing costs down to their lowest level since mid-2022. The RBNZ explained that this decision was necessary because the economy had a lot of room to grow (spare capacity) and price increases (inflation) were slowing down. Although the overall annual inflation rate hit the top of their 1-3% target range in the third quarter, the prices for core items and services that aren't easily traded internationally are easing. This supports the expectation that inflation will return to the 2% target by the middle of 2026.The RBNZ stated that any future rate changes will depend on how the economy and inflation look going forward.Meanwhile, in Australia, the annual inflation rate increased to 3.8% in October 2025, up from 3.6% in September, meaning it remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 2-3% target range.This was the first full monthly inflation report, and it showed that electricity prices jumped (up 37.1%) after government discounts ended, and food prices remained high (3.2%). Monthly inflation, however, was flat after rising 0.5% in September. This report marked Australia's official shift to using a complete monthly inflation report, instead of the quarterly report, as the main way to measure price changes.European Session - European Shares Advance European stock markets saw a small increase on Wednesday. This rise was supported by two main factors: growing anticipation of US interest rate cuts and encouraging signs of progress in peace talks for Ukraine.Investors were also waiting for the UK's budget announcement later in the day. The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, rose by 0.4%, building on the strong gains it made on Tuesday. Major regional indexes were also up, with both Germany's and France's markets gaining 0.5%.London's FTSE 100 was up 0.2% as the UK prepared for the budget speech, where the Finance Minister is expected to announce billions of pounds in tax increases. The positive mood in Europe was linked to global investor optimism, which was boosted by weaker US economic data on Tuesday, increasing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate cut in December.Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal also helped improve investor confidence after the Ukrainian President indicated he was ready to move forward with a U.S.-supported framework to end the conflict. Despite the positive news on peace, defence stocks still saw gains, with their index rising 0.8%. In individual company news, Germany's athletic wear maker Puma gained 1.9% after its US competitor, Urban Outfitters, reported better-than-expected sales for the third quarter.On the FX front, the Japanese yen was stronger on Wednesday because of hopes that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might raise interest rates as early as December.The New Zealand dollar jumped after its central bank suggested it was likely finished cutting rates. Similarly, the Australian dollar also increased by 0.57% to 0.6506 after its October inflation report was higher than expected, which makes it unlikely the central bank will cut rates further. The euro moved closer to 1.16, reaching 1.1590, partly helped by signs of progress toward a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.Overall, the U.S. dollar was weaker against other major currencies, falling 0.2% to 99.65.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased slightly on Wednesday, recovering after falling to their lowest point in a month during the previous session.However, the gains were limited by ongoing concerns about a predicted oversupply of oil next year and the possibility of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could bring more supply to the market.Specifically, Brent crude futures rose by 28 cents (0.45%) to 62.76 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 26 cents (0.45%) to 58.27 a barrel.The price of gold reached its highest point in nearly two weeks on Wednesday. This increase was driven by recent US economic information, which supported the idea that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.This expectation made the US dollar weaker, which is generally good for gold prices. The price of spot gold rose by 0.7% to $4,156.89/oz, hitting its highest level since November 14th. Similarly, US gold futures for December delivery also increased by 0.4% to $4,154.10/oz.Read More:UK Budget 2025 Preview: Fiscal Drag, Wealth Tax, and Market Impact on GBP & GiltsSilver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet one with geopolitical events and the UK budget dominating the agenda.Today is a significant day for the UK and its currency, the pound. The UK Finance Minister, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, is scheduled to give her budget speech at 12:30 GMT. It's worth remembering that during last year's budget announcement, bond yields actually dropped while the speech was happening, only to rise later once the official economic forecasts (from the OBR) were released and showed a clearer picture of future inflation. This pattern could repeat itself today.Meanwhile, in the US, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report being released today might be even more important than usual. This report collects informal information and stories about the health of the economy, effectively taking the place of the delayed report on the third quarter's economic growth (GDP).If this report mentions any increasing worries about the job market, it would likely help the US dollar align with expectations for lower short-term interest rates. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index Support961695509500Resistance966196919800FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 26. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 25Fed pricing has gone completely bipolar in the past few weeks, progressively decreasing from near 25 bps certainty to a mere 20%, only to whip back to 82% in a matter of days. zoom_out_map Evolution of the Fed's Rate Cut odds, November 25, 2025 – Source: Kalshi Some data showed up and shifted the narrative this morning, but overall, the fundamental picture remains consistent: Employment is still trending lower, with the latest private employment figures showing a contraction (ADP weekly report at -13.5K vs -2.5K last week), and inflation remains too high for the Fed to be fully comfortable—though perhaps not too high to prevent a move (PPI came as expected, the Core actually missed by 0.1%)San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly joined the likes of Williams and Waller in their dovish view, though her impact is limited by the fact that she will only be a voting member in 2027.No matter the rhetoric, the Fed will be squarely focused on the next high-tierdata point before their December 10th decision: the Core PCE release on December 5th.Stock markets, particularly the Dow Jones, absolutely loved the "bad news is good news" data, surging back well above the 47,000 mark and finishing up around 1.40% on the session. Except for Nvidia, which took quite a hit today (though it managed to close well off its lows), the entire stock market ran higher. And, as per usual this year, Gold and other precious metals joined the rally. It seems cuts are really good for everyone, huh! zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (Session Close) – November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:US Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookSilver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Conservative Equities (Dow Jones and European Stocks) loved the weaker Dollar today, which diverged quite a bit from the Tech-sector. And the same could be said for US Bonds and Gold – Assets in the back of the risk-curve were of heavier demand from the daily move.Semiconductors and Cryptos have both struggled a bit today, taking the Nasdaq to a fairly muted performance compared to its peers.But the worst performer is once again Oil, which posted strong resilience in previous session before getting ransacked by the better Eastern-Europe developments.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 25 – Source: OANDA Labs FX Markets woke up today after the weaker US Data.The GBP is among the winners, as it has been rallying from some troughs after the much-anticipated UK Budget got released – Notice the end-session profit-taking. The rebound in the pound might not just be a one way higher.You can learn more on the Budget and its effect on the GBP right here.The JPY is also posting quite a rebound. Keep an eye on this as it a strong reversal there could shape the future FX action.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not over yet for AUD and NZD traders, who will be at the center of volatility throughout the overnight session.AUD traders will have to monitor the Australian CPI numbers, releasing this evening at 20:30 ET. However, the evening will really heat up with the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 ET. A 25 bps cut is expected (bringing rates to 2.25%), but the real mover will be the forward guidance in the Statement and Press Conference—markets are anxious to see if the easing cycle is nearing its end.Tomorrow's session (Wednesday) should also be quite eventful after tonight's central bank action. The overnight session will turn eyes towards Europe, where the focus will be less on data and more on policy rhetoric. ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 13:00 (ET).The US Session should be even more active, quenching the thirst for data before the Thanksgiving holiday break. The first moves will come from the Durable Goods Orders (Sep) at 9:30 A.M. ET. Simultaneously, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, released a day in advance (expected at 225K) will provide the latest pulse check on the labor market.Later in the morning, the Chicago PMI follows at 10:45 A.M., and the day rounds out with the Fed's Beige Book at 15:00, offering anecdotal evidence on economic conditions across the districts.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Strongest Major currency of the past month, the Dollar had swept through most of its peers powered by a hawkish repricing, assumed by the Market after Powell's speech at the October 29th FOMC (You can access it right here).The Federal Reserve Chair made many more mentions of their dual mandate to monitor both Employment and Inflation compared to the September meeting which had seen a tilt towards employment (meaning tariffs were posing an issue yet again).The rough numbers and downward revisions to NFP in August and many other labor releases had warranted such a dovish turn from the Fed during the early Summer, but also caught people by surprise when data did not continue to worsen consequently – Explaining by the way the steep rally from 97.50 all the way to above 100.00 in the Dollar Index. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) since end-September 2025 (top panel) with US 2-Year Yield (bottom panel) – Source: TradingView Turning to today, late releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics haven't corroborated with a high inflation and better employment picture; Quite the opposite actually:Despite better Jobless Claims last Thursday, consecutive misses in US Retail Sales (particularly ex. Auto and Gas at 0.1% vs 0.4% exp), PPI (Headline as expected, but a 0.1% miss on the Core) and Private Labor Data (-13.5K vs -2.5K previous) confirmed the more protective tone from Fed's Williams at his speech last Friday.Listen to our podcast: The 'moving target' of Fed rate cuts, US PPI and US retail salesSince the end of last week, the Pricing for a 25 bps cut consequently went from lows of 20% all the way to the current 85%. zoom_out_map Evolution of the Fed's Rate Cut odds, November 25, 2025 – Source: Kalshi Let's have a look at a few intraday FX Major Pairs (USD/JPY, EUR/USD and AUD/USD) to see how the turn in the pricing for the December 10 meeting led to strong reversals. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanUK Budget 2025 Preview: Fiscal Drag, Wealth Tax, and Market Impact on GBP & GiltsUSD/JPY – Is the Squeeze done? zoom_out_map USD/JPY 8H Chart. November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY, subject to a 10,000 pip, one-way up-move since beginning October, has just initiated a turn lower since the speech from Fed's Williams.A monetary policy convergence trade (where rates differential between US –at 4% – and Japan –at 0.5%– bearish for the pair had been put on the side after PM Takaichi's appointment.However, the Bank of Japan is showing their teeth after the one-sided move, pointing towards a potential rate hike in December to help the yen.Fears of intervention which could come during Thanksgiving have also calmed the squeeze.Currently at 156.00 after reaching 158.80, the pair is holding tight at an hourly support.An hourly close below the 156.00 handle opens the door for a Major retracement all the way to 153.00.A rebound from here would point to 157.00, a test of the descending trendlineLevels of interest for USD/JPY Trading Resistance levels156.90 to 157.95 Recent top resistance2025 Highs and April 2024 peaks 158.80 to 160.001990 and July 2024 Peak 161.00 to 162.00November highs at 157.895Support levels156.00 to 156.20 Short-timeframe Support153.00 to 154.00 Key high timeframe pivot150.00 Psychological support146.00 August range support2025 142.00 Main daily supportEUR/USD holds its range zoom_out_map EUR/USD 8H Chart. November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The range in EUR/USD, mentioned throughout our recent detailed analysis of the pair, is holding extremely well in those current conditions.Since October 27, Fiber has been holding between 1.1470 lows and 1.1650 highs.Confirmed by a flattening MA 200 and with fundamentals not coinciding with major breakouts, the range can be expected to hold ; Directional trends have the tendency to slow down before FOMC meetings– However, always watch for fakeouts and don't forget that everything can happen .Levels of interest for EUR/USD Trading Resistance levels1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (range Highs)1.1750 mini-resistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneWeekly highs 1.1656Support levels1.1470 to 1.15 range support4H MA 200 Mini-support 1.161901.1475 to 1.15 Support Zone1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSession lows 1.14966AUD/USD bounces back at the lows of its yearly range zoom_out_map AUD/USD 8H Chart. November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView It is one of the first time that I noticed such an obvious range!Since August 2025, FX Markets haven't materialized any trends – Pretty logical when seeing the extent of the moves throughout the first half of this year.Nevertheless, AUD/USD had caught quite a wave of weakness after a strong performance against all its major counterparts, with the "Risk-on" currency brought down by a worsening sentiment (The Aussie tends to correlate well with Equity markets).Holding between 0.64 (Support) and 0.66 (Resistance) since August, the latest bounce can offer quite a mean-reversion setup.Still, as always, keep an eye on any session close below support or above resistance, but same as EUR/USD, you can expect the range to hold ahead of the FOMC meeting (as fundamentals have few chances of changing much more).Levels of interest for AUD/USD Trading Resistance levels0.6480 to 0.65 Pivot0.6550 Range mid-Pivot turned Resistance0.6580 to 0.66 Resistance (Range Highs)July Highs Resistance 0.6620 to 0.6650Support levels0.6420 August Lows and Main Range Support (recent bounce)0.6250 May support0.62 Psychological supportLiberation Day lows 0.59140Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (25/11/2025): Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver (XAG/USD) has stalled its gigantic rally higher as a more hawkish Fed pricing and lower economic projections have effectively brought a top to the precious industrial metal. After forming a clear double top at its all-time highs of $54.50, Silver retraced lower to just graze below the psychological $50 mark.Still, the metal's resilience to correct lower suggests that the underlying dovish catalysts haven't entirely disappeared. NY Fed President John Williams recently revived hopes for a 25 basis point cut, pushing the odds for the December meeting back up to around 70%. This pricing was further consolidated by a raft of weak data released this morning: PPI came in at 2.7% (matching expectations), while both Retail Sales and the ADP Private Employment report surprised to the downside. Hence, the prospect of gradual rate easing—a fundamental booster for commodities like Silver—keeps underpinning prices even as sellers try to push lower. Marking a recent low at $48.65 but also failing to breach the $52 level, a range is gradually forming.Let's look at it through a multi-timeframe analysis of the metal. Read More:Oil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanGold Price Forecast: Bullion rallies to $4,118 key level as markets increase Fed rate cut betsUK Budget 2025 Preview: Fiscal Drag, Wealth Tax, and Market Impact on GBP & GiltsSilver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView After yesterday's strong rebound back above the $50 mark, buyer hesitancy and another failed test of the $52.00 level proves how weak directional attempts are.This is characteristic of a Thanksgiving week, when many traders are absent and leads to lower odds of trending-environment (Who will be there to push prices?).When looking at the past few weeks of action, the up-down action forms typical signs of a range. It also gets confirmed further when looking at the long wicks, and a flattening RSI right around the neutral zone.Let's dive into shorter timeframe to spot more details on how to exploit this range.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Range highs Resistance $52.00 to $52.502025 record $55.48$53.50 to $54 current ATH resistance$52.47 past week highsPotential resistance 1 $57.50 to $60 (1.382% from 2022 lows)Support Levels:$48.50 to $49.50 Daily Pivot, Range lowsOctober FOMC bottom $46.00 to $47.00$45.55 October 28 lows$43 to $44 higher timeframe pivot/support$39.50 to $40 higher timeframe support1H Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 1H Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current $48.00 to $52.00 range has found root in more troubles fundamentals as time comes: Is the Fed lowering rates enough to fuel another All-time high rally?Are ongoing geopolitical reconciliations enough to lower demand and bring prices down?As traders and participants scratch their heads, an opportunity to trade the range emerges.Sell the $52.00 to $52.50 resistance; Wait for a candle rejecting the level and spot if selling continues.Buy the $48.00 to $49.00 range lows to play the range.Track for daily closes above and below these range levels to see if flows create a diversion from the ongoing consolidationSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil took another pipeline lower as recent headlines reduced supply route concerns for one of its bigger producers.The initially secret discussions for a Ukraine-Russia peace plan, initiated by the US, have taken a much more serious shape.An original Russian-drafted 28-point plan—similar to the one proposed for Gaza—had earlier been publicized but was subject to fierce debate among European leaders, as the guarantees would not play in Ukraine's or the EU's favor, particularly clauses regarding the recognition of occupied Ukrainian territory like Crimea and Donetsk as Russian. zoom_out_map A map of Ukraine and Russian-controlled territories – Source: UnderstandingWar.Org, November 22, 2025. A revised 19-point plan has hence emerged in the past day, with ABC News reporting that "the Ukrainians have agreed to a peace deal", though there are still details to be sorted out.The agreement is described by officials as a "living paper," implying that many clauses remain subject to change as negotiations evolve. The rest of the war now hinges on whether Russia accepts the terms.This major geopolitical development has sent Oil back below the $57.50 mark, more than 2.50% lower.Still stuck in descending, choppy trading, Oil presents some interesting technical looks as fundamentals swing again.Let's dive right into the charts for Black Gold. Read More:The Crypto Bloodbath Stalls: Is a Bottom In?Dow Jones (DJIA): Outperforming the US mega-cap technology stocksMarkets Today: Rate Cut Bets Surge, FTSE 100 Eyes Retest of 200-day MA, Geopolitics and US Retail Sales in FocusUS Oil (WTI) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) Daily Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The energy-commodity is still not out of its descending trend when looking at how solid the Daily Channel is.The 50-Day MA acted once again as a major point for sellers to enter. If current momentum continues strong, the next step could be a test of the 2025 lows ($55.285) which also coincides with the lows of the Channel.The Daily RSI also formed a concrete selling sign, as momentum tried to test the neutral level but rejected it lower. Keep an eye on such formations in RSI which can render strong signals.For now, shorter-timeframes may indicate an earlier stop in the selling. Let's take a closer look4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 4H Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsKey September Resistance $65 to $66May range Resistance $63 to $64$60.90 Past Week highs$58.265 short-timeframe pivot levelMay Range lows support $59.00 to $60.50 (Broken, now Major Pivot)Support LevelsHigher bound of 2025 support $57.00 to $57.30 (testing)Oct 20 lows $56.38$55 to $55.70 low 2025 Support1H Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 1H Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The shorter timeframe shows a clear evolution within an Hourly Bear Channel, contained within the higher timeframe sequence.Now testing its lows, some hesitant mean-reversion attempts to take place.This comes at multiple confluences with the higher timeframe support coming close, but no signs of reversal are shown.To get an immediate momentum guide, look at the current 1H Candle:Above its highs ($57.60), a reversal higher has high chances of materializing.Holding current levels adds more chance towards a lower break (look at the session lows at $57.25)Some spikes could also take place as the geopolitical developments occur. Therefore watch your risk!One of my theories was also one of a potential sell-the-peace rumours, buy the peace-news. But is still for now a bit farfetched.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.