Most Read: WTI Oil: Crude rallies above $60 on fresh US sanctions and US million-barrel purchaseThe annual inflation rate in the US rose slightly to 3.0% in September, the highest since January, but was still lower than the 3.1% forecast.What Went Up: The biggest push came from Energy prices, which jumped 2.8% due to higher costs for fuel oil and a smaller drop in gasoline prices compared to August. Prices for new cars also rose slightly faster.What Slowed Down: The rate of price increases slowed for food, used cars/trucks, and transportation services.Shelter costs (rent/housing) stayed steady at 3.6%.The key point for the market was that the annual Core Inflation rate (which excludes food and energy) actually slowed to 3.0% (down from 3.1% in August), surprising markets that expected it to hold steady.Month-over-month, overall consumer prices rose by 0.3%, with gasoline being the largest factor, but this was still slower than the 0.4% rise seen in August. Core inflation for the month also rose slower than expected. zoom_out_map Source: BLS Wall Street Eyes Positive Open As a result of the inflation, US stock indexes were set for a strong opening on Friday. Add to that positive earnings from the tech sector and the stage is set for a solid day ahead.Intel's shares jumped 5.9% before the market opened after the chip company easily beat its profit forecasts, which also lifted rival chip stocks like AMD and Micron. This positive momentum sets a good tone for the coming week, when five of the seven largest tech companies, the "Magnificent Seven," are scheduled to report earnings amid the ongoing excitement over AI.Separately, Procter & Gamble's stock rose 3.5% after it also beat its profit estimates, signaling that consumer demand for everyday products remains healthy.Overall, futures for the major indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all indicated gains, with small-cap stocks also expecting a significant rise.There is some data ahead in the form of PMI and Michigan sentiment data, both of which could stoke further volatility depending on the print.Technical Analysis - Dow Jones Index From a technical standpoint, the Dow index is a whisker away from the October 21 high around 47335.A golden cross pattern is taking place as we speak with the 50-day MA crossing above the 100-day MA which is a signal of bullish momentum.However, given the recent rally, could the Dow experience a pullback before the next leg higher?Support rests at 46677 and 4650 respectively.Dow Jones Index Daily Chart, October 24, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Safe TradesFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Why Record Deliveries Still Mean a Profit Margin SqueezeGBP/USD has fallen around 60 pips since the UK inflation data release this morning. This could be down to the fact that traders added to BoE easing bets, seeing 17bps of cuts by December.The inflation print has brought a December rate cut into play once more as the print comes after wage growth also showed signs of a slowdown last week. However, the BoE decision in December may now rest with the outcome of the UK Autumn budget due in November.UK Inflation Data Opens Door to December Rate Cut The most significant takeaway from the latest UK inflation data is the big drop in food inflation.Officials and the Bank of England (BoE) had grown increasingly concerned throughout the year about rising food prices partly driven by April's tax and minimum wage hikes, fearing that this could fuel consumer expectations and turn the current spike into a more persistent inflation problem. Fortunately, food prices actually dropped in September, pulling the annual rate below 5% and running significantly below the BoE's August forecasts. zoom_out_map Source: ING A similar easing was seen in services inflation, which also dipped below projections, with various measures of "core services," including the closely-watched restaurants and cafés sector, showing a decline.This is particularly reassuring because the BoE had worried that pressure from food inflation could eventually emerge as a slower-moving, more lasting problem in the catering sector, but its annual price rate also thankfully eased in September.I initially predicted an interest rate cut in November, but because the Bank of England (BoE) has been cautious lately, I was forced to reevaluate my position. The market is now much more optimistic about a December cut, pricing a 72% chance of it happening.A December cut is certainly possible, but it will depend on the specifics of the late-November Autumn Budget. Specifically, the Bank will need to see proof that the government plans to significantly tighten spending in 2026, mainly through tax increases, and that these new taxes won't accidentally cause inflation to rise again next year, as some tax hikes did recently.US Dollar Resurgence and US CPI Ahead The US dollar has been on a decent run this week with the Dollar index on course for a retest of the October 9 highs around the 99.57 handle.This has also contributed to the recent fall in GBP/USD.The question now as markets await the highly anticipated US Inflation print due on Friday is whether this is just repositioning ahead of the CPI release.This could be the Dollar rising ahead of the CPI release before falling once the data is out. A very intriguing time for the US Dollar and one which could have wider implications for many currency pairs and asset classes.Friday also brings a host of data from the UK. We have retail sales numbers and S&P PMI data scheduled for release which could impact GBP/USD. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - GBP/USD From a technical point of view, GBP/USD on the four-hour chart has returned to a key area of support around the 1.3300 handle.The current four-hour candle is showing signs of a potential move higher but does face some resistance ahead at the 1.3333 and 1.3378 handles respectively.If cable rejects at any of these resistance levels, support at the 1.3250 comes into play before eyes turn to the psychological pivot level around the 1.3000 markGBP/USD Daily Chart, October 22, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold’s sharp correction: XAU/USD plunged over 8% from its all-time high of US$4,381, marking its steepest drop since August 2020.Short-term bullish reversal signs: Technical indicators, including bullish “Hammer” candlestick formations and RSI divergence, signal potential rebound momentum.Medium-term uptrend intact: Gold remains supported by a sustained downtrend in the 10-year US Treasury real yield below 1.87%.Key levels to watch: Support sits at US$4,056/4,000; resistance zones at US$4,267, US$4,380, and US$4,424/4,455. Gold (XAU/USD) has experienced a volatile movement in the past three sessions. The precious yellow metal has managed to reverse the 1.7% loss it incurred last Friday, 17 October 2025, and rallied by 2.4% on Monday, 22 October 2025, to print a fresh record high of US$4,381.Thereafter, gold (XAU/USD) recorded a swift decline on Tuesday, 21 October 2025, where it tumbled by 6.3% on an intraday basis, but it pared back some losses to close at US$4,125 with a daily loss of -5.3%, still a significant occurrence as yesterday’s loss was the worst since August 2020.Yesterday’s swift decline is likely due to stop-losses triggered on short-term leveraged long positions on gold (XAU/USD), where it has gained “attraction” after the bullish breakout triggered on 29 August 2025 from the prior 4-month of “Ascending Triangle” range configuration that led to a steep bullish impulsive up move sequences in the recent two months.Interestingly, longer-term technical elements and one key macro factor are still suggesting that the medium-term and major uptrend phases of gold (XAU/USD) remain intact.A lower long-term US real interest rate acts as a tailwind for gold zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 10-year US Treasury real yield with Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term & major trends as of 22 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) The 10-year US Treasury real yield (excluding 10-year breakeven inflation rate) medium-term downtrend remains intact as it remained below its 50-day moving average and 1.87% key medium-term resistance (see Fig. 1).Based on intermarket analysis, a cap on any further rebound in the 10-year US Treasury real yield below 1.87% and a break below 1.66% key intermediate support reduces the opportunity costs of holding gold (XAU/USD) as it is a non-income-bearing asset, in turn, creating a further positive feedback loop back into the price actions of gold (XAU/USD).Interestingly, the prior decline in the 10-year US Treasury real yield from 2.05% on 1 August 2025 to 1.79% on 28 August 2025 coincided with gold (XAU/USD)’s bullish breakout from its former 4-month “Ascending Triangle” range configuration in place since April 2025.Let’s now examine the latest short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), relevant key elements, and key levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspectivePreferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Bullish reversal at US$4,056/4,000 key support zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 22 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,056/4,000 key medium-term pivotal support, and a clearance above US$4,203 is likely for the bullish reversal scenario to gain traction for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$4,267, US$4,380 (current all-time high area), and US$4,424/4,455 (see Fig. 2).Key elements Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a swift decline of 8.6% from its current all-time high of US$4,381 printed on Monday, 20 October 2025, to a current intraday low of US$4,004 on Wednesday, 22 October 2025, at the time of writing.The 8% plus rapid decline in the price actions of gold (XAU/USD) has led the hourly RSI momentum indicator of gold to hit an extreme oversold level of 19.61on Wednesday, 22 October 2025, and subsequently, flashed out a bullish divergence condition.The price action of Gold (XAU/USD) has formed an hourly bullish “Hammer” candlestick in today’s Asia session, right after a retest of its rising 20-day moving average. Also, it has formed an impending daily “Hammer” candlestick. These observations suggest a potential capitulation of bearish momentum.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the US$4,056/4,000 key medium-term support invalidates the bullish reversal scenario for gold (XAU/USD), where a medium-term (multi-week) corrective decline may unfold to expose the next intermediate supports at US$3,943 and US$3,895/3,864 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US-China trade scare has sent a wave of anxiety across all risk-assets, and digital assets rarely avoid such. Cryptocurrencies got sold off violently at the past week close.It isn't the first time that such flows happen on a Friday late afternoon, but this one was particularly brutal: The Crypto total market cap lost close to $1 trillion in value in about an hour and some altcoins printed down about 70% of their value with cascading liquidations.Since, much of the moves have recovered with conciliatory tones from both US and China, but the overall tone still seems passive/aggressive. zoom_out_map Total Crypto Market Cap, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView One could point to the fact that after marking a new $4.27 trillion record three days prior, the profit-taking had already started a selling wave.Some parties might have been informed of the Trump tweet before the bigger move happened? It would not be the first time – Markets are like that despite regulations trying their best to prevent such practices, but all of this is for now just a theory.Some suspicious flows had been demarcated before the selloff started however... Volumes have been holding pretty low since despite the decent recovery, proving how such movement errode market confidence. We'll look at the charts to see if they provide more details right ahead. zoom_out_map Daily overview of the Crypto Market, October 16, 2025 – Source: Finviz Cryptos were up small to start the day but have since started to see some small-scale selling with Ethereum hanging right around $4,000. Other risk assets like Stocks are up for now – tracking sentiment (and any sudden change to it) will be key once again for daily trading, and expect the same for the time to come!Let's explore levels for the Crypto Market leaders: BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. Read More: Markets Today: UK GDP Up 0.1% in August, Gold & Oil Advance, FTSE Breaks Below 100-Day MA. Fed Speakers In FocusEUR/USD: Recent euro weakness stalled at 1.1530 key medium-term support with a minor “Double Bottom” bullish breakoutCrypto intraday chart analysisBitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart zoom_out_map Bitcoin 8H Chart, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView When looking at the chart, one thing stands out: The Friday afternoon wick at $102,000.The move was significant and so rapid that prices just printed at these lows before coming right back higher and closing at $114,000.One thing to notice however is how the June upward trendline has since been broken, with sellers attempting to take control of the price action; an asymmetric double top has formed.Buyers are protecting the $108,000 to $110,000 support, coming into play as we speak.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$108,000 to $110,000 previous ATH support zone (testing)$106,000 mini-support$102,000 Friday afternoon wick$100,000 main support at the psychological levelResistance Levels:Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Current all-time high $126,250$120,000 psychological levelPivot Zone $115,000 to $117,000Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum 8H Chart, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum has been left out of the most recent crypto inflows since reaching a new record high of $4,950 in end-August. However, the second largest crypto is still holding the $4,000 level and staying there marks volume at 5-year highs, essential for marking its "value" around elevated levels.Momentum is also stabilizing, as showing in the triangle formation.Looking back, Ethereum really had been struggling throughout the past few years – Keep track of its ETF inflows to spot incoming demand (or lack thereof) from retail investors as more and more venues are created for traditional money.Levels to place on your ETH Charts:Support Levels:$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation Zone$4,000 to $4,095 Main Long-run Pivot$3,900 8H MA 200$3,433 Friday lows$3,500 Main Support ZoneResistance Levels:$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation Zone$4,500 mini-resistance$4,700 to $4,950 All-time high resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsA parenthesis on ETH/BTC zoom_out_map ETH/BTC 8H Chart, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView The ETH/BTC ratio, a proxy for altcoin appetite has corrected since August 22. Nonetheless, the Friday move and particularly its recovery have marked a decent rebound for bulls. The most positive outcome for the Crypto market would be a break above the corrective channel.On the other hand, the bearish case takes further probability on a channel breakdown.Solana (SOL) 8H Chart zoom_out_map Solana 8H Chart, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Solana is selling off quite aggressively after retesting the $210 levels post-crash.Still evolving within an ascending channel, the key will be to spot if buyers defend the $185 Support to pursue the higher continuation.The lower bound of the channel is at around $170, after which the price action would be entering a bearish territory.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:$185 Momentum Support (testing)$170 Friday lows$160 August Support$150 Psychological SupportResistance Levels:Pivot Zone $200 to $205Resistance level $218 to $220$235 to $240 mini-resistance and Higher bound of channel$250 to $255 main resistance$290 to $300 all-time high resistance ($295 ATH)Ripple (XRP) 8H Chart zoom_out_map XRP 8H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView XRP broke the range mentioned in our previous altcoin analysis, providing a less bullish outlook for the 4th largest altcoin – Currently neutral.Nonethless, buyers are defending the $2.20 to $2.30 support and the pace at which the selloff occurs has slowed down: Prices have consolidated above the descending trendline.Levels to keep on your XRP Charts:Support Levels:Key support between $2.20 to $2.30 (immediately testing)$2.00 psychological level$1.60 April 2025 support$1.37 Friday wick$1.30 to $1.40 Resistance Levels:Main Support now Pivot - $2.60 to $2.70$3.00 Major Pivot Zone$3.10 to $3.20 resistancePrevious all-time Highs - $3.39Current ATH resistance around $3.66Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Recently suffering a loss of 2.50% only six days ago, the Dow Jones 30 edges 0.22% in today’s session, erasing losses from Friday’s trading.Trading around ~$46,428, the Dow Jones now looks for support to continue the recent rally, albeit currently lagging behind its US equity counterparts.What’s next? zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30 (green), S&P 500 (blue) & Nasdaq-100 (yellow) OANDA, TradingView, 16/10/2025 Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Key takeaways 16/10/2025 Suffering the worst loss since April on Friday, the blue-chip heavy Dow Jones is recovering more slowly than the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500, as markets look to pare lossesWhile banking earnings topped analyst estimates on Tuesday, forward guidance from JPMorgan & Chase had dampened expectations of growth in Q4, hurting banking stocks and weighing heavily on the price-weighted Dow JonesResponsible in no small part for Friday’s sell-off, a worsening US-China trade war looks set to continue, with Trump accusing China of being “economically hostile” Read more on today’s session: Markets Today: UK GDP Up 0.1% in August, Gold & Oil Advance, FTSE Breaks Below 100-Day MA. Fed Speakers In FocusDow pares losses from Friday, edging higher to $46,428 With US equity trading this week being relatively tame, let’s round up a few macroeconomic themes at play: Trump accuses China of being “economically hostile” over soybean spat: Safe to say I didn’t expect to be writing about soybeans this week, but here we are. With Friday’s sell-off still fresh in the memory, with trade tensions inspiring a risk-off move that seriously hurt US equities, Trump has again renewed a moral offensive on China, with soybean exports his next point of contention. zoom_out_map @realDonaldTrump, Truth Social, 14/10/2025 While most are unfamiliar with the logistics of US legume exports, Trump’s comments are significant in two ways: They further Trump’s narrative of prioritising domestic industryThey signify a breakdown in relative cordiality between the two biggest world economies As for Dow pricing, with Friday being a case in point, a worsening US-China trade war is likely to hurt US equity pricing, with markets becoming more risk-averse.This holds especially true for US tech stocks, such as NVIDIA, a key Dow constituent. Highly sensitive to US-China trade tension, the semiconductor manufacturer lags behind the Dow in terms of recovery since Friday’s sell-off, trading around $182.65 per share. zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30 (green) & NVIDIA (pink) OANDA/Nasdaq, TradingView, 16/10/2025 Forward guidance from US banking sector to disappoint: Despite the best efforts of stellar Q3, topping almost all analyst predictions, markets were quick to sell US banking stocks following comments from JPMorgan & Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. "My antenna goes up when things like that happen. I probably shouldn’t say this but when you see one cockroach, there’s probably more. And so everyone should be forewarned at this point " JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, speaking during Q3 earnings call Dimon, known for his rescue of failed investment bank Bear Stearns, warned of ‘cockroaches’ in the private credit sector, following the collapse of subprime automobile lender Tricolor and car part supplier First Brands.While admittedly somewhat niche to broader Dow Jones commentary, the comments cast further shadows on US private credit, of which banks like JPMorgan are exposed.In the case of Goldman Sachs, at #1 in terms of DJIA weighting, recent performance would go some way in explaining the somewhat hampered recovery of the Dow Jones compared to other US equity indexes. zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30 (green) & Nasdaq BANK index (pink), OANDA, TradingView, 16/10/2025 As a personal aside: perhaps the first and last time I’ll use the word ‘cockroaches’ as part of financial market commentary.Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Technical Analysis 16/10/2025 To conclude, let’s break down some technicals:Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map Dow Jones 30 (US30USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 16/10/2025 Let me start by apologising for a cluttered chart - it just so happens that many key levels are close to current price action.With moral obligations out of the way, let me draw your attention to the 14-period RSI, which has been erring on the side of overbought lately.If nothing else, Friday’s sell-off will be eyed by markets as a potential entry point, assuming price finds support at the 20-period SMA.Should price meet resistance and fall, we can also expect some technical buying at the 50 SMA, although, as things stand, a fall to this level is unlikely. Price targets and support/resistance levels:Price target #1: Previous high: $46,434Price target #2: Previous high: $46,843Support #1: 20-Period SMA: $46,346 Read about the precious metals in today’s session: Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next? Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver prices continue to soar to unprecedented highs with questions being asked about the reason for the rally.Well in all honesty there have been a host of reasons cited as a driving force, all of them may be true to some degree. The most popular ones which have been discussed at length include rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, the ongoing supply/demand deficit in physical silver, and of course the price of silver being cheap in comparison to Gold. One of the reasons which has really come to the fore recently is the shortage of physical silver which has led to a big premium for physical silver as well. Recent, widely reported incidents have exposed some key factors regarding silver, particularly due to physical shortages that have made the metal difficult to acquire. This is becoming a global problem.This shortage is especially felt in India, the world's biggest consumer, which has seen its imports drop by a significant 42% this year, even as demand from both investors and industrial users (like those making solar panels and electronics) has surged.The problem is amplified globally because most silver is produced as a side product of mining other metals, making it hard to quickly increase supply when demand spikes.As a result, dealers everywhere are struggling to find the metal, and this scarcity is driving up prices in the supply chain. This physical shortage is not limited to India; countries including China, Turkey, and Australia are also currently facing a scarcity of silver. zoom_out_map Source: Crux Investor As the physical silver shortage continues, the amount of money held in silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and futures contracts has surged. Large investment funds are now viewing silver as a "higher beta" version of an inflation hedge, meaning it's more volatile than gold, but offers the chance for much larger gains when the market moves up.This structural shift is driven by the fact that silver offers dual benefits that gold does not.:Monetary Asset: Like gold, it protects against the long-term devaluation of traditional paper money (monetary debasement).Industrial Asset: It acts as a powerful bet on industrial growth and the global "energy transition" theme, as silver is a crucial, irreplaceable material used in fast-growing sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles, and high-tech electronics.This unique combination makes silver attractive to both traditional commodity investors looking for a hedge and other market participants focused on clean energy trends.Either way, right now these factors have created the perfect cocktail for Silver prices.Technical Analysis - Silver (XAG/USD) From a technical standpoint, Silver has settled into a period of consolidation since the early hours of Wednesday morning.Price is just shy of the recent high print around the 53.62/oz handle with the period-14 RSI above the 50 level. This is a nod to how strong the bullish momentum behind the Silver move is.Similar to Gold, picking a top at this stage appears counterproductive. However, for day traders opportunities may yet present itself.Silver (XAG/USD) H4 Chart, October 16, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Dropping down to a H1 chart and price has been consolidating in the red/pink block since yesterday.A candle close outside this block could lead to a move in that direction.Obviously the longer price remains in the block the more aggressive the breakout may be.A break to the downside may find support at the 100-day MA resting at 51.84 before the October 14 swing low at 50.59 with the 200-day MA resting below that at the 50.28 handle.A break to the upside may find some resistance at the YTD high at 53.62 before the psychological 55.00 handle comes into focus.Silver (XAG/USD) H1 Chart, October 16, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on XAG/USD with 64% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are Long means XAG/USD prices could fall in the near-term. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The run in Silver prices has been nothing short of extraordinary. Since the start of the year, the metal has surged more than 80%, with most of the move unfolding after Powell’s late-August speech at Jackson Hole (+37% in a 44-day span).Having broken its 2011 record highs of $49.81, Silver now trades comfortably above $50, and definitely cementing its seat as one of the most explosive rally in more than a decade.Beyond speculation, Silver’s industrial demand — particularly in photovoltaic panels, EVs and advanced electronics — is driving the squeeze. Supply issues are mounting, with growing fears that the metal’s rarity could lead to some disastrous developments for the precious metal.Traders are increasingly nervous. Some metal specialists like Brian Kuszmar admit they have never witnessed a market this volatile, not even during the infamous 1980s Silver boom. zoom_out_map Brian Kuszmar, metal specialist since 1977 – Source: X – October 15, 2025 The parabolic rise now raises one big question — will something blow from this rally? Read More:What if there was no trend in the US Dollar ? DXY OutlookThe Powell/TACO combo lifts Wall Street from early lossesEUR/JPY Forecast: Support at 175.00 Holds the Key to Immediate Bullish ContinuationSilver (XAG/USD) multi-timeframe analysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG) 2-Day Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking out on higher timeframes really mark how strong the rally is.The move is becoming more parabolic as time goes but we haven't seen widespread market panic for now: What can happen in the strongest squeezes is a development of higher-gaps on very thin volumes.Volumes are indeed getting thinner as the rally continues but things are not too out of whack.Up 3% at one point in today's session, some stalling has happened at a test of the $53.71 high timeframe 1.618% Fibonacci-extension (session highs).Reactions don't imply sudden reversals, but it's essential to keep this level in view for reversal/breakout analysis. Let's take a closer look.8H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG) 8H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The price action is slowing around the current highs after yesterday's strong profit-taking bar.For now, a convergence of a lower high forming with the same pattern on the RSI prompts some slowdown in the silver-rush.Keep an eye on the upward trendline that could come into play on a retracement, particularly as it comes close to the $49.81 2011 record that hasn't been retested.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Daily peak $53.71$52 to $54 current ATH resistancePotential resistance 1 $57.50 to $60 (1.382% from 2022 lows)Potential resistance 2 $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)Support Levels:$48 to $49 2011 High Pivot$43 to $44 higher timeframe support$39.50 to $40 higher tf momentum pivot zone2012 Highs Support around $37.501H Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG) 1H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the lower high formation, the price action is still consolidating close to the hourly resistance – This marks bull resilience.Keep an eye on the 50-H MA, currently at $52.12. An hourly close below would confirm a retracement to at least the previous ATH level at $49.80.However, a daily close above would maintain the upward trajectory.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

EUR/JPY printed a hammer candlestick yesterday just above a key support level hinting at a potential bullish continuation. The bullish daily candle close also came after three successive days in the red but today has seen price action fail to build on yesterday's momentum.EUR/JPY has pushed lower testing the lows printed yesterday. What does the pair have in store for market participants in the coming days? Let us take a look.Japanese Yen: Geopolitical Safety Bid vs. Domestic Instability The Japanese Yen (JPY) is currently getting stronger, but this strength is based on fear and is likely to be temporary.The yen's recent gains is likely because market participants are scared by the rising trade tensions between the US and China, which now includes new shipping fees and tariff threats. This global "risk-off" mood, which is also pushing gold prices to records, makes investors put money into the yen because it's traditionally considered a safe-haven.However, this rise is unstable due to problems in Japan. The currency's gains are limited by political uncertainty following the collapse of the ruling party's coalition. More importantly, the likely new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has in the past indicated she may interfere with the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to potentially hike interest rates.Market participants think this political interference will prevent the BOJ from raising rates which is what the yen needs to get stronger. We have already seen rate hike expectations take a significant hit following the election, based on the latest LSEG data.These developments are weighing on the Yen and may do so over the medium-term, hinting at potential gains for the Euro.Political Instability Affecting the Euro The euro’s path right now seems stuck because the Eurozone looks shaky.France, for example, saw its prime minister step down, and the country is wrestling with the biggest budget deficit any Euro‑area nation has had in years. That kind of political mess may mean higher risk for investors.Because of that the spread between French OATs and German Bunds has started to widen. In other words, lenders ask for a bigger premium to hold French debt. The market reads this as a sign that the whole bloc could be under pressure. So the euro’s ability to ride out outside shocks looks weaker, which may push the EUR/JPY pair lower.Looking Ahead - Beyond the Data Over the next ten days or so we have a host of data releases which could stoke volatility in EURJPY. However, many of these data releases will likely lead to short-term moves.The political developments in France and Japan may have a bigger impact on the overall direction of the pair, especially regarding BoJ policy. Keep an eye out for any major announcement in that regard in the coming days. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - EUR/JPY From a technical point of view, EUR/JPY is resting above a key support level which was the recent swing high around the 175.00 handle.If this level holds there is every chance that EUR/JPY may revisit the YTD high from October 9, resting at 177.92.A break of that handle could open up a run toward the psychological 180.00 handle and beyond.A break of support at the 175.00 handle may open up a deeper retracement with a key level resting at 173.89 before the long-term ascending trendline and the 100-day MA which rests at 171.32 comes into focus.EUR/JPY Daily Chart, October 15, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Traders are obsessed with trends.Yet history shows that markets only trend about 30% of the time — the remaining 70% is spent consolidating sideways. This is valid for almost every asset class since the dawn of time.But consolidation don't necessary translates to frustrating, choppy action.In 2025, the US Dollar has been at the center of global debate.After months of weakness driven by tariff fears, slower US growth, and fiscal uncertainty, a bottom seems to have formed since July — confirmed by the pre-FOMC retest in mid-September.But bottom doesn’t always mean reversal.The much-discussed de-dollarization trend, for now, looks overstated.Despite with less conviction than before, the world still largely trades in USD.Instead of a sharp recovery, the greenback appears stuck in a large range as traders await new catalysts — whether from tariff policy, an unexpected change to the Fed's stance, or new global economic trends.This could have important implications for FX markets in all currencies.Let's take a close look at the Dollar Index (DXY) to spot what the range looks like and its key levels of interest. Read More:Markets Today: China CPI Struggles, Gold Breached $4200/oz & FTSE 100 Retreats. US Earnings & Central Bank Speakers AheadThe Powell/TACO combo lifts Wall Street from early lossesUS-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowDollar Index mulit-timeframe analysis and levelsDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index Daily Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index recently broke the 99.00 handle, having done so for the first time since end-July.However, with the ongoing uncertainty in markets, it seems that participants are not rushing to bid the greenback at its highs.Reacting to a key technical resistance right around 99.50, sellers have appeared to correct the pair slightly which decreases the technical outlook for a sudden breakout.Looking further out, the range is taking place between 97.00 to 100.00 with some +/- 500 pip precision.USD/CAD is trading right around 1.40, USD/JPY rejected its higher levels and the Swissie is proving resilient around 0.80.4H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The DXY is reacting particularly well to overbought and oversold levels in the RSI as of late, and the pattern seems to repeat through different timeframes, a sign confirming the rangebound action further.The 4H MA 50 (98.81) is still acting as support around the current 98.50 zone pivot restraining the selloff – Any breach below would confirm a re-entry in the range.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Support Levels:98.50 to 98.80 Pivot Zone (with 4H MA 50)98.00 Mini-SupportAugust Range support 97.25 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Resistance Levels:Resistance 99.25 to 99.50Thursday Oct 9 highs 99.56100.00 Main resistance zone1H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 1H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking even closer, small mean-reversion buying is occuring at the 98.60 hourly support but with the RSI approaching neutral, reactions will be essential to monitor.Spot through the chart the ongoing mini-range between 98.60 and 99.50: Any break and close above/below should see continuation.If rangebound conditions persist, attempt to spot how this could contain the price action in other FX pairs in the waiting of more fundamental catalysts.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Published overnight, the latest UK labor market data has raised several red flags for the economy, signaling a possible shift in the broader macro outlook.Persistent inflation pressures constrain the Bank of England’s rate-cut path, leaving the BoE with the second-highest policy rate among OECD economies, just behind the Federal Reserve at 4%.(FYI Fed Chair Powell will be speaking here for those interested) Bank of England rate odds – October 14, 2025 – Source: LSEG If everything stays as it is, it would support the GBP (and has done so for the first half of 2025), but some challenges are appearing ahead.Earlier in the year, the pound’s strength was supported by solid employment and wage growth. However, the long-term effects of Brexit—notably on food inflation—are weighing on household spending, with a UK resilience now looking increasingly fragile.The latest jobs report showed slower pay growth and a weaker jobs market, reigniting stagflation concerns. The BoE now faces a dilemma: cutting rates risks fueling inflation, while holding steady could deepen the slowdown in employment and growth.This uncertainty is pressuring the pound.Let’s take a closer look at the technical levels and technical setups for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY to see how that translates to the charts Read More:WTI Oil tumbles as US-China trade tensions flare up againUS-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowGBP/USD 8H Chart and levels GBP/USD 8H Chart – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Pound had fallen to new bi-monthly lows after the labor report but some contradicting price action is appearing ahead.A double bottom has show its face with some small bullish divergence. In the context of the ongoing broad US dollar selloff that started this morning, it will be interesting to see who wins the tug-of-weakness between the two.Now just crossing back above the 1.33 psychological level, back 600 pips from the overnight lows, there are two levels to keep you eyes on: To the upside, the 1.3350 to 1.3360 pre-data zone that comes at a confluence with the channel's upper bound. A break above could relaunch a more bullish GBP demand.A retest of the 1.3248 to 1.3260 daily lows would mark another sign of weakness for the pound: Watch for a break if traders bring GBP/USD back there again.In the current contradicting context, some rangebound conditions appear overall.Levels of interest for GBP/USD trading:Resistance Levels1.34 Support Zone now key pivot1.3350 to 1.3360 daily highs and channel upper boundPivot now resistance 1.3450 to 1.34650Main Resistance zone around 1.35Support LevelsPivotal Support 1.3260-1.331.32486 overnight lowsS2 1.3170 - 1.318501.3140 August 1 lowsGBP/JPY 8H Chart and levels GBP/JPY 8H Chart – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView In our most recent (now a bit out-dated) GBP/JPY analysis, we explored how the 200.00 level was defended by sellers which they had used as resistance to sell the pair.However, fundamentals changed quite largely for the yen throughout the beginning of August, particularly as it comes to Japanese politics: The newly elected LDP leader (governing party in Japan) has scared markets on a bad fiscal outlook which quickly undone any yen strength.This was a goldmine for GBP/JPY bulls. However, with the current state of markets, the balance seems to be tilting yet again.Growth sentiment is getting highly affected by the US-China trade tensions and this helps the safe-haven yen.As expected for the most volatile FX pair, there has been some intense swings in that period – Looking at the current course of action, the 8H momentum is hanging around neutral.Traders may look at the downward trendline to spot where flows can head next, with the 201.27 level acting as a key level to observe for upcoming action.Levels of interest for GBP/JPY trading:Support Levels:201.27 pre-Bank of Japan highs and overnight lows200.00 psychological levelMain Pivot (previously resistance) 199.00 to 200.00Intermediate Support 195.00 to 196.85Resistance Levels:July 2024 downward pivot 203.00Downward trendline at 202.95Post-Election highs 205.33208.120 July 2024 highsSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A degrading sentiment took a pause yesterday as participants digested Trump’s remarks over a prolonged North American trading weekend , which initially signaled a possible de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China. However, optimism looks short-lived.China reiterated its stance through multiple official channels — including its Commerce Ministry and state media — emphasizing its readiness to respond firmly to any tariff actions which comes after an initial Friday comment from Donald Trump in case you missed the story. Read More: US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand now This is even leading to the EU and US looking to partner up again to fight the Chinese aggressive policy.Adding pressure, US ships began paying duties at Chinese ports today, a measure long anticipated but now officially in effect. This development has weighed heavily on global trade sentiment, extending the downtrend in Oil prices.With easing Middle East tensions and steady Russian supply to fund its war in Ukraine, Oil fundamentals remain pointed to the downside except for the advent any black swan event.WTI has now fallen below $60, and has been holding below the threshold since Trump's original post.Let’s dive into Oil spot charts to see whether this decline is nearing exhaustion — or just beginning. Read More: Markets Today: UK Wage Growth Hits 3-Year Lows, Gold Retreats from Highs, FTSE 100 Eyes Gains. US Earnings Season AheadJPMorgan (JPM) bullish reversal from 5% decline at key support as Q3 earnings loomWTI Daily Chart US Oil Daily Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView This year has seen many factors leading to downward revised global economic performance. The most evident one is the Trump tariffs which added a widespread angst among economists, especially as they get imposed about a year after the conclusion of the fastest hike cycles, which aimed to dampen the fast growing economies from 2022 and 2023.Even a few years after, economic deceleration still imposes its dominance on oil demand, particularly when looking at the slowing labor growth in OECD nations which generate a lot of demand.For example, the UK just published weak data as seen in the overnight data report (more on this coming on MarketPulse today) and an also slowing US jobs market.This combined with Chinese deflation doesn't help for bulls prospects.There is some nuance however, with Chinese trade data coming in way better than expected and airlines projecting a solid outlook ahead.The daily chart shows reactions at the lows of the daily downtrend after the overnight 1.50% drop.The RSI is approaching the oversold territory but isn't quite there. Let's take a closer look.WTI 4H Chart and levels US Oil 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since the end of September, Oil has firmly held its daily descending channel and even formed a steeper hourly trend.This led to the overnight $57.75 lows, levels not seen since May 2025 and the Liberation Day troughs.There has been some small mean-reversion however as prices reach a confluence bottom of the daily & hourly channels, combined with a bullish RSI divergence and an end to a measured-move.Traders will have to look at the daily lows: any attempt to make new lows and any 4H close below would maintain the bearish trend and push towards the $55 2025 support zone.Any rebound from here may point to the 4H 50-MA at $61.15 , at a confluence with the upper bound of Hourly Channel.Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$59 to $60 2021 and 2025 Main Support now PivotMA 50 and upper bound of Hourly Channel $61.15 to $61.30September range Support now resistance $62 to $63September resistance $65 to $67Support LevelsOvernight lows $57.76$55 to $56.50 2025 Support2019 mini support $53 to $54Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.5Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities, and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It is a US bank holiday today for Columbus Day (with Canada and Japan also off) but markets that are open were still subject to quite the volatile weekly open.The final quarter volatility is never something to beckon with, particularly after an already volatile beginning of 2025. At the close of last week, markets were rocked by a massive trade war scare initiated by some more aggressive Chinese stance. VIX - Equity (Options) Volatility with Heikin-Ashi candles – October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Beijing put up the pressure regarding its rare earth exports, announcing new export controls on rare earth elements and tightening its grip on critical materials essential for semiconductors, defense, and electric vehicles. For now, China has a considerable advantage in this market and is expanding its dominance through key ties with African nations (which have many rare earth resources), for example.Following this aggressive tightening, Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Friday, posting a statement that immediately triggered a significant wave of selling across risk assets. Reactions in Cryptocurrencies Friday reactions to the Trump post – October 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:Markets Today: Gold Up 1.4%, Chinese Exports Soar as Trade War Fears Return, DAX Bounces but Risks RemainMarkets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical peace and turmoil ; Third week of shutdown In addition to the existing tariffs (that started to be put in place since 2015), Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, effective November 1. The President stated that China had taken an “extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World,” and accused them of holding the world “captive” with their control over “Magnets” and other Elements. Market reactions were immediate: the S&P 500 plummeted 2.7%, the Nasdaq 100 closed down 3.5%, and the crypto market saw a record wipeout with Bitcoin tumbling over 8% and over $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated. Overview on the S&P 500, BTC and ETH Friday moves – Source: TradingView The most significant moves happened in major altcoins like Cardano going from $0.82 in the morning to $0.28 lows (67%!!) on a wick.A similar move happened in XRP going from $2.83 highs in the Friday morning to a $1.32 wick (-52%!)These crazy moves happened around 16:30 Friday during the liquidation.So why are things so green to start the week This marks another classic TACO trade—or Trump Always Chickens Out—came into play over the weekend, leading to a sharp reversal for stock future and cryptos. Nasdaq 15m Chart with the extent of the Friday Moves – Source: TradingView Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US had “aggressively pushed back” against China's export controls and confirmed the 100% tariff “does not have to happen,” indicating that President Trump was still on track to meet President Xi Jinping later in the month. Trump himself tempered his tone on Truth Social on Sunday, saying, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” and that the US “wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”.In response to this rapid U-turn, US stock futures surged higher at the Sunday Globex open, reversing the huge losses seen on Friday. The US Dollar had initially corrected from the higher tariffs and overall deleveraging from the Friday scare, but recovered the entire move since. Metals on the other hand just loved everything about the news yet again, with both Gold ($4,107 and Silver ($52) trading to new record highs. Moves since Thursday in the Dollar Index (left) and Gold (right) – Source: TradingView Looking at the current picture, China urged the US to "promptly correct its erroneous practices" regarding tariffs and to act with "equality, respect and mutual benefit", though they maintained they were “not afraid of a tariff war”.For now, the latest flashpoint has cooled, but the underlying trade tensions remain a significant risk for investors and traders as Markets approach the November 1 deadline for Chinese tariffs.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold sailed toward $4100/oz on Monday with the precious metal trading up around 2% on the day.The precious metal saw a significant selloff last week which looked like it could be the start of a significant retracement before renewed tension between the US-China sent market participants fleeing toward safe havens once more.Trade tensions between the US and China escalated when US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose massive 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports starting November 1st, a move that caught market participants by surprise.This dramatic announcement followed China's own recent decision to control the export of rare earth elements, which are vital materials, raising fears about disruptions to global supply chains. President Trump claimed on social media that China was becoming "very hostile" by outlining these export controls to multiple countries. However, over the weekend, Trump softened his stance, reassuring the public that everything would "be fine" and that the US wanted to "help China, not hurt it." This slight shift in tone offered some relief to nervous markets.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Monday that despite the high tensions, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still scheduled to meet later this month.Bessent called China's export controls "provocative" but stressed that the proposed 100% tariffs "doesn't have to happen" if China takes steps to ease the situation and remains open to talks.China's Commerce Ministry responded by warning that if the US continues its aggressive approach, Beijing will take strong countermeasures to protect its interests.Today's rally also comes as the US Dollar Index rose as well despite US markets closed for a holiday.Gold continued a recent trend which has seen the precious metal shrug off USD strength to continue its advance. For more on this, read Who said that the USD and Gold can't rally together?Of course there has been a lot of discussion around the Gold rally in 2025 and the possible factors contributing to the rise of the precious metal. Many of those factors remain in play, but today's move appears to be largely driven by the US-China trade war question and its implications for global growth.Most Read: Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History SaysLooking Ahead Looking ahead to the rest of the week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday may well be the most important event for market participants. This will be his last chance to speak before the central bank enters its "blackout period."This "blackout" is a quiet time before the Fed's October 29-30 meeting when officials stop making public comments to avoid confusing the market about their upcoming interest rate decisions.Meanwhile, the crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a key measure of inflation will be delayed due to the recent government shutdown but is now scheduled to be released on October 24th, giving the Fed just enough time to review the inflation data before their meeting.Several other Fed officials are also scheduled to give speeches throughout the week, adding to the information the market will receive before the official silence begins. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, it is very difficult to pick a top at the moment. Not to mention that the lack of historical price action makes it near impossible.Usually market participants would hope for some form of pullback after such a move.The RSI period-14 is back in overbought territory after last week's foray below the neutral 50 level.Such a move is likely to depend on how trade talks develop between the US-China in the coming days.Any signs of escalation will see Gold continue tor rise, while signs of a deal is likely to lead to a pullback and some profit taking.Immediate support rests at 4050 before 4025 and 4000 come into focus.On the upside I will be watching the 4150 and 4250 handle closely.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, October 13, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The weekly close turns more cautious after a strong run for tech and growth stocks. Some technical concerns had risen on Tuesday after a huge risk-off/profit-taking session that wasn't explained by any particular fundamental change.Both the S&P 500 (6,764) and Nasdaq (25,195) printed fresh record highs over the past 24 hours, capping a stellar stretch for the sector — though the Dow Jones, still below last Friday’s 47,000 peak, hasn’t quite kept pace.As explained in our previous session analysis, this divergence has started to drag sentiment. The rest will be to see how far it influences overall stock performance. Read More: US stocks sector divergence raises red flags Daily Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView In a strong correction session, indices are retracing toward the highs reached in late September, as traders show hesitancy from the “everything rally” stretch. Despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, markets had largely shrugged off political noise — until today. With Gold surging past $4,000 and the U.S. Dollar rebounding sharply over the past week, capital rotation is starting to weigh on risk assets. US Equity heatmap – October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Heavyweights like Amazon, AMD, Nvidia and Meta are down roughly 3% on the day, dragging sentiment across the broader tech complex. Still, the Nasdaq remains relatively resilient compared to its peers, holding key right around its September 23 pivot even amid the unwind – So the flows aren't just about massice undoing of the yearly trades (even metals are performing well, Silver is back above $50!!).Let’s take a look at the charts for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 to assess how deep this pullback could go. Read More:Canadian employment makes a comeback – USD/CAD reversesHow investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdownUS Index analysis and levels: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500Dow Jones 8H Chart Dow Jones 8H Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Technicals for the Dow are not looking optimal for bulls.A multi-day rejection of the past week records has led to a bearish corrective sequence, leading to the strong move below the 8H 50-period MA.This follows a break from its steep upward channel that had begun in August – Steep channels tend to break and prices are still far from bearish, but higher timeframe momentum is stalling.Now trading right at its Key pivot (45,650 to 45,750), buyers will have to defend the level to avoid a more bearish-looking price action.Dow Jones technical levels of interestResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 47,105ATH Resistance Zone 47,000 to 47,160 (+/- 150 pts) post-FOMC highs and MA 50 46,400Support LevelsAugust ATH Immediate Pivot 45,650 to 45,75045,767 Session lows at August 22 highs (immediate test)45,000 psychological level44,400 to 44,500 Main SupportNasdaq 8H Chart Nasdaq 8H Chart, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq rejected the 25,200 to 25,300 Fibonacci-Extension with precision, dragged down from the overall bearish performance in the Dow. Now at the lows of its steep ascending channel, reactions will be key.Prices have moved below the intraday Momentum pivot and MA 50 (24,750) which may hurt the technical outlook further.Now at a Support, coinciding with the lower bound of its upward channel, buyers will have to defend the price action. Failing to do so may lead to revisiting the 24,000 August levels.Nasdaq technical levels of interestResistance Levelscurrent ATH 25,2241.618 Fib-Extension resistance between 25,200 and 25,300Psychological Resistance around 25,000Momentum Pivot and 8H MA 50 24,750Support LevelsSupport at the lows of the channel 24,400 (immediate Support)August 12 ATH zone turning support (23,950 to 24,020)23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 8H Chart S&P 500 8H Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView The RSI is getting closed to oversold, but some worrying signs are showing for the 500-best US equities.Price action has held a steep upward channel since May 2025 (post-Liberation Day rebound) but this channel just broke to the lower side. Only the September NFP brought the index below, but shortly followed with an upward correction.With short-timeframe momentum prompting stalling price action, the correction is stalling, but monitor reactions to the 6,600 Support which approaches fast.Failure from bulls to hold the support prompts a larger correction in the S&P 500.S&P 500 Trading Levels:Resistance Levels6,774 (current All Time-Highs)Key current Resistance 6,745 to 6,760Key Pivot Zone 6,670 to 6,700potential resistance (1.618 fib - 6,790 to 6,800)Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Key Support6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (MA 200 Confluence)6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets just received the Canadian labor report — and unlike the still-missing U.S. one (thanks, government shutdown), this one actually delivered. Canada added +60K jobs vs. +5K expected, a sharp rebound from last month’s -65K loss.Even better, most of these gains came from full-time positions, signaling renewed strength in the labor market.Being bullish on the CAD hasn’t been a winning trade this year. It’s been one of the top underperformers in FX—now only slightly ahead of the even weaker JPY—caught in the middle of a challenging macro backdrop.As a cyclical economy, Canada cooled rapidly after its huge 2022–2023 period.The job market softened, real estate activity slumped, and slower immigration weighed further on overall growth. Combined with tensions between Ottawa and the Trump-Administration regarding US-Canada trade, the outlook for the loonie had been anything but bright.Oil prices (One of Canada's top export, linked to CAD performance) trending down to 5-year lows also haven't helped the Maple Dollar much.WTI Oil actually just dipped below $60 – this may hurt US Shale producers even further and hence have less of a net-negative effect on the CAD.Check how well Oil and the Canadian Dollar correlate throughout the years WTI Oil and CAD/USD since 1998, Source: TradingView But things might be starting to look better However, the ongoing Trump–Carney talks this week are reviving optimism for improved trade conditions.Canadian trade envoy Dominic Leblanc described the talks from this week as "successful, positive, substantive", but markets are still awaiting for decisive news on tariffs, particularly on steel.With USD/CAD testing and rejecting the 1.40 level, let’s dive into a multi-timeframe analysis to see what comes next. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD): Overstretched uptrend, risk of minor pull-back below $4,012The US Dollar rally leaves no crumbs –  Market wrap for the North American session - October 9US stocks sector divergence raises red flagsUSD/CAD multi-timeframe analysisDaily Chart USD/CAD Daily Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView After bearish failure in the pair throughout multiple consolidation periods, USD/CAD has rallied in steps – Initially ranging between 1.36 to 1.38, then 1.37 to 1.39 leading to today.Some countering elements are blurring the picture looking forward: The price action is bullish, with prices just moving above the 200-Day MA acting as immediate support.The 1.40 level on the other hand opposes a huge psychological resistance for the pair.The session and weekly close will be important for the pair: Anything below, traders consider that the trade outlook between US and Canada is not looking too bad.A close above 1.40 continues the bullish trend to retest April resistances.4H Chart and levels USD/CAD 4H Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView The latest move upward was more due to the broad US Dollar rally than pure Canadian Dollar weakness.Loonie weakness was at the center of its low performance this year, whcih also invites to look at other CAD pairs for decent opportunities.One can also track how prices react to a test of the 4H-MA 50 (1.39560) and upward trendline for upcoming trading.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance Levels1.40 to 1.4050 Psychological resistanceYesterday highs 1.40342April Resistance 1.41 - 1.4150April Pivotal resistance 1.4250Support LevelsMajor Daily Pivot 1.39200-Day MA 1.39750 (immediate support)1.38 Major SupportMajor Support Zone 1.3675 to 1.371.3550 Main 2025 Support1H Chart USD/CAD 1H Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking at teh keys to the current price action, USDCAD is in the middle of some key developments.A break above the weekly highs (1.4030) should turn into a further breakout. Odds of this are increased on a daily close above 1.40.A break below 1.3550 could accelerate towards the 1.39 Main Pivot, key for future price action.Any daily close below the zone (1.3880 are the lows) point to a solid re-entry within the 1.36 to 1.39 5-month range.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Equities have enjoyed a remarkable run, with major indices pushing to fresh highs — from last Friday’s Dow peak above the 47,000 milestone to yesterday’s record closes in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.Since June–July 2025, following the end of the 12-day Israel–Iran conflict, markets have been ecstatic, printing new all-time highs almost every week.Yet, beneath the surface, some divergences are starting to show. The S&P 500 now stands 9.5% above its January 2025 high, the Nasdaq is up 12.5%, but the Dow Jones has gained only 3.6% — a notable gap that hints at sectoral imbalance.A weekly look at US Indices Weekly Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView This underperformance of consumer defensives and cyclicals, coupled with persistent USD strength, weighs on broader sentiment.Tariffs are hurting US manufacturing companies and dragging profit-margin expectations lower. Things don't look as bad when a sector outperformance drags sentiment higher and pulls indices upward.On the other hand, a lack of Market Breadth ends up dragging the stability of the overall sentiment lower – This is what is dragging indices lower in today's session.Market breadth helps to gauge the overall health, direction, and participation within a stock market or index. It achieve this by comparing the number of stocks that are advancing against those that are declining. US Equity heatmap – October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:An unusual pattern emerges in NZD/USD after the 50 bps cutDow Jones Technical Outlook: Dow Tests Key Confluence Level. Is Another 500 + Point Slide Incoming?Europe on the brink of the heating season, yet gas remains cheapHow large are the sector divergences ? YTD performance per Sector (Left) ; Daily performance per Sector (Right) Top performing sectors this year:Basic Materials (dragged higher by commodities): +28.90%Communication Services: +24.18%Technology: +23.09%Worst performing sectors this year:Consumer Defensive: +1.52%Real Estate: +3.71%Consumer Cyclical: +4.41%At some point, Market participants may take caution from some key sectors to the economy underperforming, leading to an overall reduced activity and purchasing power.Now, a trader's role is to spot if this leads to a simple retracement that prompts dip buying, or if the current highs are established for a longer-run.For this, the best is to look at the current highs on all indices: If buyers can push for a weekly close above previous highs, it usually means that the trend is to continue.If they fail to do so, Markets will be looking to retest lower levels in value consolidation.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Dow Jones Index is on the back foot today continuing its bearish trend this week which started with Monday's retreat from the recent highs.The lack of US data due to the US government shutdown has left markets with few catalysts to look forward to. A host of Federal Reserve policymakers including Fed Chair Powell have also done little to inspire any volatility this week.Looking at the current Fear and Greed index, and it is hovering in neutral territory as well. Source: FinancialJuice Given the current malaise we are seeing in US stocks this week and with the lack of US data releases the technicals and chart patterns that develop tend to be more reliable. Let us take a look at what the Dow Jones chart and technicals are telling us.Technical Outlook - Dow Jones, S&P 500 From a technical standpoint, the Dow Jones Index on the four-hour chart below has been printing lower highs and lower lows since Friday October 3.The period-14 RSI has also crossed below the 50 neutral level hinting at a shift in momentum from bulls to bears.As things stand, price is at a key confluence level around the 46660 mark which was the swing low on October 2 and holds the 100-day MA.A break of this level could lead the Dow Jones index to decline some 500 points to test the 200-day MA which rests at 46143 with a move beyond that opening up a retest of the psychological 45000.If the Dow finds support at this confluence level, immediate resistance rests at 46900 before the swing highs at 47050 and 47160 come into focus.Dow Jones Four-Hour Chart, July 16, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) If the Dow does drop, the move may not be a big one. History suggests the current bull market may still have room to run despite Wall Street's impressive performance over the last few years. Let us take a look.History Suggests Bull Market May Have More Upside Potential The current upward trend, or "bull market," in the U.S. stock market is nearly three years old, but historical patterns suggest it might only be halfway through its lifespan.This bull market officially began on October 12, 2022, when the S&P 500 index hit its lowest point after a period of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Since then, the index has been soaring, recently hitting a series of record highs, driven primarily by a massive surge in large technology stocks. The S&P 500 is up almost 90% since its 2022 low.However, this gain is still less than the historical average increase of over 170% for past bull markets, which have typically lasted about five years. Interestingly, the market's performance over the past year (its third year) has been very strong, with a gain of over 15%, marking the strongest third-year performance of any bull market since 1957. Source: LSEG Despite the overall strong performance, the market's gains have been very concentrated. While the standard S&P 500 is up nearly 90%, the equal-weight S&P 500 (which shows the performance of the average stock, not just the biggest ones) has only risen 49%. This difference shows that only the largest "megacap" stocks are truly driving the headline index higher.Some investors are now hopeful that when the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, it will broaden the rally and allow smaller, average stocks to finally catch up.Now of course this is looking at the S&P 500 but one cannot ignore the knock on impact it has on Wall Street as a whole. The correlation between the S&P500, Nasdaq 100 and the DOw Jones index during the current bull run have been there for all to see. This leaves me thinking that even if there is a lag, the Dow will also benefit from further gains should this bull rally extend for another two years.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The New Zealand Dollar has been under heavy pressure in recent weeks, weighed down by a string of disappointing economic data, including a sharp GDP contraction that surprised markets and pushed the RBNZ toward a more dovish stance.But markets often move in unexpected ways.Despite the policy decision being split between a 25 bps and 50 bps cut, and the RBNZ ultimately choosing the larger move, NZD/USD didn’t tumble as far as expected.In fact, buyers stepped in, bringing the pair back to nearly unchanged levels by the close of yesterday's session. NZD/USD Intraday 15m Chart – October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView So, what explains this counterintuitive reaction?Markets are forward-looking — a larger cut today reduces the need for aggressive easing later, prompting traders to reassess what might have been peak dovishness.In other words, Participants assess that the RBNZ will have less to do from here.A look at the following Rate pricing for the RBNZ Pre-RBNZ Rate Cut pricing – October 7, 2025 – Source: LSEG A 25 bps cut would have led to a longer rate cut path: A 2% Neutral Rate would have been reached in April 2026, taking the New Zealand economy longer to recover.The red circles follow a 25 bps, slower rate cut path. Post-50 bps cut RBNZ Pricing – October 9, 2025 – Source: LSEG Read More:Europe on the brink of the heating season, yet gas remains cheapNasdaq 100: Short to medium-term bullish trends intact amid AI bubble fearsMarkets Today: Softbank Surges 11%, HSBC Falls 6.6%, US Dollar Continues to Advance. DAX Eyes Further Gains The new pricing shows that the cut cycle is priced to end in February 2026 – Hence, faster recovery for the New Zealand economy.Sellers now aim to test yesterday's lows to see if the yearly bottom has been found after failing yesterday.We’ll now look at NZD/USD key levels to see where is the current bottom and if a new one could then emerge.NZD/USD 2H Chart and levels NZD/USD 2H Chart, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Amid a US Dollar rebound, sellers have found a place to sell the pair after re-testing the 4H 50-period Moving Average.Will the pair reach new lows, or has a bottom been found after the Jumbo rate cut?This marks key breakout points to follow for the pair: A break above the daily highs (0.58070) should confirm the intermediate bottom.A downside break would imply further weakness in the NZD is expected.Levels to keep on your NZD/USD charts:Support Levels:March highs Support and Channel lows 0.5730 to 0.5755Yesterday lows for Bulls to defend 0.57370.5650 March Lows Support0.56 Psychological LevelResistance Levels:Session highs and breakout level: 0.58070Current High timeframe Pivot 0.5850, topline and MA 2000.59 Main Resistance Zone (+/- 150 pips)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European gas prices stay near 30–32 euro per MWh despite the upcoming heating season.High storage levels and strong LNG inflows from the U.S. keep the market stable.China’s weaker LNG demand reduces global price pressure.Risks ahead include Norwegian production outages and possible winter cold pushing prices toward 40-45 euro per MWh. Despite the approaching heating season, natural gas prices in Europe remain near a yearly low — around 30–32 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh). The persistence of such low levels results primarily from high storage inventories and strong inflows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. In addition, lower demand for LNG in China — offset by an increase in pipeline gas deliveries from Russia — has reduced competition and thus eased price pressure on the European market. Chart of the European TTF natural gas futures contract, daily data, source: Bloomberg High storage levels and steady prices Since the end of June, the benchmark TTF price has remained around 30–32 euros per MWh, even as the heating season approaches. In the spring, the situation was much more “tense.” After a cold winter, European gas storage facilities were filled to only 33 percent, it means 25 percentage points lower than the year before. However, thanks to increased LNG imports in the second quarter, storage levels rose to about 80–82 percent, significantly reducing the risk of shortage.U.S. LNG exports play a key role The United States has played a key role in stabilizing the market. After the launch of new export terminals, American LNG exports increased by nearly 20 percent in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. For the full year, growth is expected to reach as much as 25 percent. Rising supply from the U.S. is helping the European Union gradually move away from Russian gas, whose imports are now planned to end completely by 2027 — one year earlier than previously projected.China’s weaker LNG demand eases global pressure At the same time, Chinese LNG imports fell by 17 percent in the first eight months of the year, and in September they may decline by another 20 percent year-on-year. This results from weaker domestic demand and increased pipeline gas supplies, mainly from Russia, which is redirecting part of its exports from Europe to Asia.Risks ahead: Norway and the weather factor Despite the current stability, it is likely that European gas prices will start rising again in the coming months. Although storage levels are high, they remain slightly below the multi-year average, and another risk factor is the ongoing production outages in Norway, particularly at the Troll field.Outlook: prices may climb by year-end If temperatures in Europe start to drop rapidly and industrial gas demand continues to recover, the market balance could shift. In such a scenario, TTF contract prices could rise — possibly reaching 40-45 euros per MWh by the end of the year. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.