Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Post Modest Gains Most Read: How fast the tides turn – Market wrap for the North American session - November 24Global stock markets grew for the third consecutive day, largely thanks to technology stocks and the increasing chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in December.The overall MSCI All Country World Index increased by 0.1% after more Fed officials voiced support for a rate reduction, making investors more optimistic. Asian stocks rose by 0.4%, with tech giants like TSMC performing well. After being closed for a holiday on Monday, Japan's Nikkei index finished the day up just 0.1%, despite a strong start; it had dropped sharply by 3.5% last week as investors avoided taking risks.Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was up nearly 0.6%, and China's CSI300 Index gained 1.1%.European Session - European Shares Subdued in Early Trade European stock markets were relatively quiet on Tuesday as investors held back, waiting for key economic data from the US. There are growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, rose slightly by 0.1%. Major regional markets were mixed: Germany's DAX fell 0.1%, while France's index gained 0.1%. Markets are specifically looking forward to the US reports on producer inflation and retail sales, which will provide fresh information on the health of the US economy.These reports are among the first to be released after the longest-ever US government shutdown caused a lack of data for both investors and the Fed.Within Europe, banks provided the biggest lift to the index, rising 0.4%, and stocks tied to natural resources, such as oil companies and miners, also gained 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. Separately, the home improvement retailer Kingfisher was a top performer, jumping 4.3% after raising its profit forecast for the full year.Finally, investors are also watching for developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, after the US and Ukraine discussed a revised plan for peace on Monday, leading to hopes that an end to the war might be near.On the FX front, the US dollar remained stable on Tuesday. This stability is notable because investors are trying to figure out if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, especially after some officials made comments that suggest they support a cut. Meanwhile, people are keeping a close eye on the Japanese yen, watching for possible government action to influence its value.The US dollar index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, was steady at 100.13, keeping the nearly 1% gain it made last week. So far, the rising possibility of an interest rate cut hasn't significantly hurt the dollar's value. The euro was trading at 1.1530 after a small overnight gain, and the British pound was slightly up (0.2%) at 1.3115.Among other currencies, the New Zealand dollar dropped to $0.5595; it has fallen more than 2% this month because a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected on Wednesday. The Australian dollar was slightly down (0.15%) at $0.6453.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin continued to struggle, falling 1.4% to $87,519.91. Its value has dropped almost 20% this month alone.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped on Tuesday. The main reason was a worry that there will be too much oil supply next year compared to the demand. This concern was greater than the worry about ongoing sanctions on Russian oil shipments, which are still in place because the peace talks for the Ukraine war haven't resolved anything.Specifically, Brent crude oil futures fell by 33 cents (0.5%) to 63.04/barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures dropped by 28 cents (0.5%) to 58.56.The price of gold went up on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in over a week. This rise happened despite a strong US dollar. Gold's increase was driven by recent comments from officials at the Federal Reserve that were considered "dovish" (meaning they favored lower interest rates), which increased the possibility of the US cutting interest rates in December.The price of spot gold rose by 0.1% to reach $4,141.49 per ounce by 0631 GMT, continuing the 1.8% gain it made on Monday.Read More:The Crypto Bloodbath Stalls: Is a Bottom In?US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Outlook: Pivotal Week for the US Dollar as Acceptance Above 100.00 Remains KeyMarkets Weekly Outlook - UK Budget in Focus as Global Equities Eye RecoveryEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet one with geopolitical events dominating the agenda.The US has become less strict about its Thursday deadline for Ukraine to agree to a peace deal with Russia. A new 19-point deal will be discussed soon. German Chancellor Merz doesn't think a quick agreement will happen this week, but Russia seems somewhat hopeful.In terms of economic news, US data could cause a market change, but probably not today. Retail sales are expected to be strong, and I think consumer confidence will drop slightly to about 93, which is close to what experts expect. The producer price index (PPI) for September will likely match expectations, rising by 0.3% month-over-month.These economic figures are not expected to change the outlook for interest rates much. Rate expectations are currently being influenced by comments from Federal Reserve officials who favor lower rates. Following Chris Waller, Mary Daly also suggested an interest rate cut in December. Even though she doesn't vote on rates this year, her position adds to the pressure for the Federal Reserve to consider a cut, making the final decision a close call. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 is in a period of consolidation.A change in structure has taken place with a four-hour candle close above the previous swing high setting up the index for a fresh higher high and potential retest of the 200-day MA resting at 9614.A failure to move higher from higher may find support at 9450 before the 9400 handle comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, October 20. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Dow Jones continues to outperform despite the AI-led sell-off, holding smaller losses than the Nasdaq 100 and maintaining relative strength supported by value-oriented sector weightings.Intermarket signals favour the value factor, with a re-steepening US yield curve and a bullish breakout in value ETF versus momentum ETF, reinforcing the case for medium-term DJIA outperformance over tech-heavy indices.The DJIA’s medium-term uptrend remains intact, with price still above its ascending channel support and momentum stabilising; holding 45,650/45,020 keeps the bullish structure intact, with resistances at 48,460 and 49,130/49,220. This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “Dow Jones (DJIA): A star performer amid the current US AI stocks sell-off”, published on 5 November 2025.The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) have staged the expected rally and hit a fresh all-time high of 48,460 on 12 November 2025.Thereafter, it faces an “indiscriminating sell-off” in the following week of 17 November 2025, triggered by a loop of negative cascading price actions on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) juggernaut, Nvidia, and other AI-related technology stocks over “bubble bursting” fears.Despite the synchronized sell-off seen in the past week among the major US stock indices, Dow Jones (DJIA)’s month-to-date performance as of 24 November 2025 fared better than the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100, with a loss of -2.3% versus -3.8% (see Fig. 1). zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Month-to-day performances of global benchmark stock indices as of 24 Nov 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Also, intermarket and relative strength analyses of relevant factors (smart beta) exchange-traded funds continue to point to potential outperformance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) over the mega-cap technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 in the medium-term horizon (multi-week)Let’s unravel.Value factor outperformance and re-steepening of the US Treasury yield zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, momentum, value factors, US Treasury yield curve major trends as of 25 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Dow Jones Industrial Average tends to be viewed as a more “value-oriented” barometer benchmark US stock index due to its higher weightage of value-related sectors, such as Financials, over the Nasdaq 100; the Financials sector has a weightage of 27% in the DJIA.One of the key drivers that allows the DJIA to stage a rally to its recent all-time high on 12 November 2025 is the re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) from 0.48% on 29 October 2025 to 0.53% on 7 November 2025, which, in turn, also reinforced the bullish breakout of the ratio chart of the S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (35% weightage in Financials)/S&P 500 ETF (see Fig. 2).At the same time, the ratio chart of the S&P 500 Momentum ETF (36% weightage in Information Technology)/S&P 500 ETF staged a bearish breakdown on 3 November 2025.The current re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, coupled with a major bullish breakout seen on the ratio chart of S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (35% weightage in Financials)/S&P 500 ETF (which indicates the potential outperformance of the value factor in the US stock market) is likely to support a medium-term outperformance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) over the Nasdaq 100.The Dow Jones (DJIA) continues to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel zoom_out_map Fig. 3: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 25 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) Despite the recent price action breakdown of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, the current price level of 46,392 at the time of writing is still holding above its medium-term ascending channel support in place since the 23 May 2025 low of 41,156 (see Fig. 3).In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator has just managed to bounce off a key horizontal support at the 35 level, indicating that downside momentum has started to wane.Maintain a bullish bias over the medium-term horizon with key medium-term pivotal support zone at 45,650/45,020. A clearance above the 47,100 intermediate resistance is likely to kickstart a new potential bullish implusive up move sequence to retest the 48,460 current all-time high before the next medium-term resistance comes in at 49,130/49,220 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster).However, a break below 45,020 invalidates the recovery scenario for an extension of the medium-term correction towards the 43,935 long-term pivotal support (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 24Connecting market movements to specific headlines is often a daunting task—a reality that keeps the "buy the rumor, sell the news" adage relevant.The most recent casualty of this phenomenon was the Nvidia earnings report. Despite the AI giant delivering quarterly results that blew past even the loftiest expectations, the reaction heavily faked out investors: an initial surge was quickly erased, leading to a 180-degree turn lower on Thursday that dragged broader sentiment down with it.As the dust settles, markets seem to be really focusing on one thing: The FOMC path. To maintain these lofty valuations into 2026, rate cuts are not just desired; they are essential. The high costs associated with the leveraged AI boom could remain prohibitive if the Federal Reserve stays hawkish, making the policy outlook a difficult call. zoom_out_map Evolution of the December 10 FOMC Meeting Odds. Chart from our Morning Market Analysis – Source: Kalshi Market pricing for a December rate cut has been a rollercoaster, plummeting from near-certainty to a scant 20% probability in a matter of weeks following Chair Powell's cautious speech and amplified by hawkish echoes from other Fed members. However, NY Fed President John Williams—a highly influential voice—stepped in to ease those concerns. His comments, signaling that policy remains restrictive enough to warrant easing, breathed life back into the narrative, pushing the odds of a December cut back up to around 70%.In Geopolitics, US President Trump also expressed quite some positive words after his call with the China's Xi Jinping which provided a further boost to an already better looking Ukraine war outlook.With sentiment now buoyed by another Magnificent 7 rebound—led by a 2.6% surge in the Nasdaq to start the week—we could be seeing a reignition of the "debasement trade" flows, with Cryptos and Gold attempting to rally alongside equities. It feels almost like early 2025 again. Nevertheless, anxiety may still loom as many traders head for the exits for the Thanksgiving week, so expect volumes and volatility to stay contained as the holiday approaches.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Today's picture was very similar to the classic 2025 trend, with only Oil changing the chart.Gold, Nasdaq and Bitcoin are the three leaders of the session, loving the latest Trump news.Better supply prospects in the event of a Russia-Ukraine peace-deal was the main factor behind today's rebound.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 24 – Source: OANDA Labs It's a typical Thanksgiving Weekly open for Currency Markets.Rangebound Markets throughout the eight Major currencies, with only the Yen separating from its peers, with the positive Sentiment dragging the currency down.This also comes as mean reversion with the end-week fall in USD/JPY – This FX pair will once again the one to track for the entire week, with a potential Intervention still very possible.(still, expect the week to be relatively calm)A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's session should be quite eventful after today's rebound.The overnight session will turn the eyes towards the German Final GDP for Q3, expected at 0%, and should help to see where the overall Euro-economy is heading. Almost no cuts are priced in for the ECB, but any major downward surprise in Europe's largest economy could change the situation. This will be followed by a couple of ECB speeches from ECB's Escrivá (5:00 A.M. ET) and Sleijpen (5:30 A.M. ET).The US Session should be even more active however with a slate of US releases that will quench the thirst for data after a drought, even if these releases will be past news (September data).The first will be the ADP weekly Private labor data (8:15 A.M. ET), which surprised markets at its first release. It will be interesting to see how Markets react to it going forward.For the rest, Expect Retail Sales and PPI data (8:30 A.M. ET) which could be major movers, as the official statistics agencies finally release the September numbers on wholesale inflation and consumer spending.US Housing data will follow suit at 10:00 A.M. ET as investors look to confirm a potential rebound in both the Consumer Confidence and the rate-sensitive Pending Home Sales after weeks of weakening.The rest of the day could be calm as many traders are out for the Thanksgiving week, a traditionally slow but green week in Markets.The evening will however be the most important:Inflation data from Australia will heat up the evening session at 20:30 ET before the RBNZ Rate decision follows suit at 22:00 ET. A 25 bps cut is expected but not fully priced in, so expect some surprise and volatility for the Kiwi dollar around the rate and policy review. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The relentless crypto bloodbath appears to have finally stalled, and signs suggest the market may have already posted a definitive bottom.Bearish acceleration had driven prices to stark troughs, with Bitcoin grazing the $80,000 level and altcoins suffering even steeper declines. XRP plunged below $2.00, Ethereum tested levels near $2,800, and Solana dropped to trade near $125.Read More: Altcoins make new lows, Total Market Cap falls below the 2021 record However, as key technical areas and Fibonacci retracements triggered interest from both opportunistic investors and algorithms, dip-buying has brought the Crypto Market higher to start the week. Bitcoin is now testing the $88,000 level, while Ethereum is climbing back towards the $3,000 psychological level. zoom_out_map ETF Inflows and Outflows in 2025 – Source: Coinglass Crucially, institutional flows are signaling a shift. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are seeing their first renewed inflows after a painful 6-week streak of net outflows that reflected general deleveraging across digital assets.The Total Market Cap, which posted lows around $2.74T just last Friday, is also staging a recovery. Buoyed by a broadly more positive mood in markets—fueled by a dovish repricing for the Fed's December meeting, strong beats on Nvidia earnings, and potential trade reopening talks with China—the total valuation is once again breaking back above the pivotal $3T mark.This level will be extremely important to hold as it equates to the 2021 Bull Market peak. zoom_out_map Crypto Total Market Cap – Bouncing at the lows of its Channel. November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:Markets rebound for Thanksgiving week as Fed comments and Tech giants boost sentimentUS Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Outlook: Pivotal Week for the US Dollar as Acceptance Above 100.00 Remains KeyMarkets Weekly Outlook - UK Budget in Focus as Global Equities Eye RecoveryThe Picture is Green after many Red days zoom_out_map Daily overview of the Crypto Market (14:30 ET), November 24, 2025 – Source: Finviz Bitcoin and Ethereum 2-timeframe AnalysisBitcoin Weekly Chart zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView A ruthless 37% descent for the pioneer Crypto has taken a break as multiple confluences of Technical Supports are coming through. The 61.8% retracement of the entire move from the 2023 ($15,500!) lows has brought some interest, as this Fibonacci level tends to generate traction among Traders and Investors.This also comes at an imperfect touch of the 2023 trendline, which presents one of the most important technical support on the long-run. Breaking this line will let the $75,000 Liberation Day as an emergency lifeline but after that, there isn't much before the $60,000 Monthly Support.Bitcoin Intraday (8H) Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView A Bullish divergence on the 8H Timeframe also helped the shorter-timeframe buyers to step in quite aggressively.A precedingly downside-broken Bear Channel pointed to extreme fear which wasn't followed by momentum accumulation, which tends to create Bullish divergences on the RSI. These are strong setups for mean-reversion, however not much says for how long things will rebound.Therefore, keep an eye on the Channel lows for Short-term support (if it breaks, more bearish).On the other hand, holding the Channel after a fakeout could lead to a $102,000 higher bound test.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$90,000 to 93,000 major support turned PivotCurrent Weekly Lows $89,340$85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)$75,000 Key long-term supportResistance Levels:$90,000 to 93,000 major support turned Pivot$98,000 to $100,000 Main Support, now Pivot (MA 50 at $100,000)$102,000 Bear Channel HighsResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) Weekly Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Weekly Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView The $2,700 Level mentioned in our very recent ETH analysis was used as a trampoline for Buyers.The next test will be to break and hold above $3,000, which also corresponds with the mid-lane of the Channel. Above this, breakout odds greatly increase.You can access detailed technicals and fundamentals for the Second largest Crypto right here:Ethereum (ETH) reaches Key Support, Has the Crypto Bear Market begun?Ethereum Intraday (8H) Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (recent rebound)$2,620 Session and weekly Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs$3,800 September lows$4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highs Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The past week was subject to more rounds of volatility, taking major US Indexes to retest and break below October lows. Hawkish Fed fears and the cancellation of key October reports like the CPI—due to the recently ended 43-day government shutdown—brought further fears into an already fragile bull momentum.However, an end-of-week rebound brought back some life into the market. This shift occurred after NY Fed President John Williams mentioned that a rate cut "in the near term" is still appropriate, effectively signaling that a December cut is not impossible. His comments helped bring the odds of a 25 basis point cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting from a low of around 20-35% back up to approximately 75%. zoom_out_map Evolution of the Fed's Rate Cut odds, November 24, 2025 – Source: Kalshi This improved sentiment is combined with better geopolitical prospects in Ukraine, where an updated peace framework is well into negotiations. The positive tone continued with news of a phone call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this morning to discuss trade and bilateral ties.In the corporate sector, Tesla bounced over 6%, while Google (Alphabet) is up another 5.6%, with the latter buoyed by the recent launch of its revolutionary Gemini 3 model. Both tech giants are leading a number of other Megacaps higher. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (11:21 A.M.) – November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Thanksgiving week has historically been positive for markets, often outperforming annual trends. The rest will be to see if fears keep subsiding in the wait for more news, including tomorrow's release of the delayed September PPI and Retail Sales figures.Let's dive right into the intraday outlook for all three US Major indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Outlook: Pivotal Week for the US Dollar as Acceptance Above 100.00 Remains KeyMarkets Weekly Outlook - UK Budget in Focus as Global Equities Eye RecoveryTime of Higher Silver Volatility: Markets Surprised by Fed Policy ShiftA global Outlook on US Indices zoom_out_map US Main Indices Daily Outlook – Fakeout below October lows. November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Having corrected much less than its peers, the rebound in the Dow is more timid compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.Currently facing the highs of its Momentum Pivot zone, small selling from the session highs is slowing the progress for the index.Pushing above should lead to a decisive move higher, particularly if the RSI keeps pushing above its neutral zone.Important Data points coming up throughout the week are also to be considered! Keep a close eye on the 47,000 LevelDow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,45946,300 to 46,600 Momentum Pivot (immediate test and session highs)Next Resistance 47,000 to 47,200 (8H MA 50 at 47,050)Resistance zone 47,500 - 47,650 and 4H MA 50Psychological resistance at 48,000Support Levels46,000 +/- 300pts Immediate SupportTuesday Lows 45,92545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)44,400 to 44,500Nasdaq 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView The tech-heavy index is enjoying quite a rebound, led from its Tech and Communication sectors' leaders, which brought Nasdaq right back into its more-balanced descending channel.Suffering the most out of the three main US indexes (down beyond 8% from its all-time highs to the 23,840 lows), the ongoing mean-reversion move is also the most rapid, bringing RSI momentum back above neutral.Now comfortably above its Momentum Pivot (24,500 +/- 125 points), buyers shouldn't have many concerns until the 25,000 Resistance that also meets the highs of the Channel.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent ATH 26,283 (CFD)Candle highs 24,925All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850Mini-resistance at 25,500 GapCurrent Pivot 25,050 to 25,200 (immediate resistance and Moving Averages)Support Levels24,510 Candle lows24,500 Main support (testing)October lows 23,997Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has also posted a spectacular rally since its Friday morning bottom, and now faces a strong test that actually could serve as indication for this week's sentiment.Above 6,700, the mood could be proven to stay more positive as sellers will can get more dormant.A daily close confirmation above the Broad Bear Channel (6,725) would also be needed.Below however could create a more balanced-rangebound structure after months of volatility.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)6,700 Key psychological levelResistance 6,720 to 6,7506,800 Psychological resistanceHigher bound of bear Channel 6,730Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Key support 8H MA 200 at 6,6696,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review The week draws to a close on a positive note after a significant selloff in risk assets as US rate cut bets continued to decline from the Federal Reserve's December meeting.US jobs data for September was finally released but came with a caveat, the October and November data will not be released until after the Fed's December meeting. This is one of the main contributing factors to the decline in rate cut probabilities which dropped to a low of around 25%.However, Friday saw a significant change once more with markets once again favoring a rate cut at the December meeting and this may continue to change as the Fed meeting in December draws closer. zoom_out_map Source: CME FedWatch Tool Risk assets faced a difficult week with the three major US indices trading 5.5-8.5% below their recent peaks at one point. The concern for markets came as a surprise given the positive earnings report by chip giant NVIDIA as valuation concerns linger.Investors are beginning to doubt the rising stock prices of leading AI companies. They are worried that these companies are announcing big plans that they don't actually have the money or the factory capacity to handle right now. If these worries continue, it will be very hard for the stock market to go up significantly. Interesting times ahead indeed especially after the positive end to the week.All major US stock indexes rose on Friday as investors became more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. This optimism grew after John Williams, a key central bank official, stated that rates could be lowered soon without causing inflation to rise again. Despite this positive end to the week, the main market indexes are still expected to finish with a total loss of about 2% for the week.Technology stocks also stabilized after suffering a sharp drop the previous day. Most large companies saw their values go up, led by Google’s parent company, Alphabet, which rose by 3%. Meanwhile, shares of AI chipmaker Nvidia remained flat; this follows a very unstable day on Thursday where the stock price swung wildly after the company released its quarterly financial results.How has the US Dollar and FX Performed? The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen on Friday after Japanese officials warned they might take action to stop the yen from losing too much value. The Finance Minister stated that the government is ready to step in if currency prices swing too wildly, which alerted traders that Japan might start buying yen soon to support it.Despite this specific drop against the yen, the dollar had a very strong week overall. It reached its highest level since May against other major currencies and is on track for its best weekly performance in six weeks.Meanwhile, other major currencies and assets struggled. The Euro dropped slightly and is set to lose roughly 1% for the week. The British Pound also fell, trading around $1.31, as investors wait for the UK government's new budget plan while facing signs of a weak economy.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin had a difficult day, falling nearly 5% to around $82,900, its lowest price in seven months.In the week ahead,keep an eye on the Japanese Yen as the case for FX intervention continues to grow.The Week Ahead The week ahead will not be as busy for the US given that it is Thanksgiving, which means data will be packed in the first three days of the week.There are still some high impact data releases from Asia and of course the highly anticipated UK budget, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces an unenviable task.Asia Pacific MarketsChina is set to release its industrial profit figures on Thursday, which will complete the economic data for the month. Profits have been improving recently, showing a 3.2% increase for the year so far, driven largely by very strong growth of over 20% in both August and September. Part of this jump is because last year's numbers were low, and while that statistical advantage will fade in the fourth quarter, profits for October are still expected to look healthy.The strongest industries this year have been those that sell goods abroad, specifically trains, ships, aerospace equipment, and electronics and this positive trend is likely to continue.In Japan, inflation in Tokyo is expected to rise to 2.7% in November, fueled by higher worker wages and a weaker Yen, which pushes prices up. Factory output remains steady following a trade agreement with the US.Although the economy shrank in the third quarter, recent signs of recovery support the Bank of Japan's plan to return to standard economic policies. While fewer investors now expect interest rates to rise in December, based on innuendo and comments, it appears at least three central bank members support the move. I still lean toward a rate hike next month, though there is a growing chance it could be delayed until January.Thanksgiving Week in the US as the UK Budget Comes Into FocusBecause of Thanksgiving, economic reports are coming out early this week, but they may be unreliable due to the government shutdown. Key jobs and inflation data have been delayed until after the Federal Reserve's December meeting.Since officials were already planning to keep interest rates steady, the lack of new data means they likely won't cut rates unless the economy faces a sudden crisis. However, we still predict interest rates will eventually drop by 0.75% by the middle of 2026.The main event to watch in the week ahead is the "Beige Book," a general survey of the economy.On Wednesday, the UK Chancellor faces a £30 billion gap in the budget. Markets are watching to see if she raises taxes to fix this, as her decision will affect future interest rates and government borrowing. Regardless of what happens, the country's deficit is expected to shrink next year. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY)From a technical perspective, the DXY has broken above the 100.00 psychological level.This is the third time since the end of July that this has happened and each time thus far a selloff has taken place. Will we see similar price action again or will the DXY finally gain acceptance above this key psychological level?This will be the major test in the days ahead.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - November 21, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Fed rate cut expectations surge: Probability of a December 2025 rate cut jumped from 39% to nearly 70% in one day (CME FedWatch Tool)Silver market reacts: Increased volatility as traders respond to dovish Fed commentaryBond yields drop: 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields fall, steepening the curve and boosting appetite for risk assets, including precious metals Recent days have brought significant changes in investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which have notably impacted the futures market, bond yields, and precious metals – especially silver. The rising probability of a rate cut in December has triggered increased price volatility in the silver market, potentially signaling more dynamic movements in the weeks ahead. zoom_out_map 30 Day Federal Funds Future (December 2025), source: TradingView On Friday, the price of 30-day federal funds futures for December rose from 96.175 to 96.215, accompanied by a record trading volume of 255.63 thousand contracts – more than three times the 20-day average. The surge in trading activity reflects a sharp shift in market sentiment: according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 bp rate cut in December jumped to 69.7%, up from 39.07% just a day earlier. zoom_out_map Probability of interest rate cuts in December 2025 based on 30 Day Federal Funds Futures, source: CME FedWatch Tool Labor Market and Inflation Data – A Mixed PictureLabor market data for September, released late due to the previous government shutdown, also contributed to the changing sentiment. Employment rose by 119,000 jobs, significantly above the forecast of 55,000. However, markets also noted an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.4%.Due to the disrupted publication schedule, October and November data will be released together – with a one-week delay. This means that the upcoming FOMC decision will be based on a limited view of labor market conditions. While the September numbers were better than expected, markets had assumed the Fed would hold rates steady, especially since CPI inflation remains elevated at 3% year-over-year – well above the Fed’s 2% target. zoom_out_map US Annual CPI, source: TradingEconomics Dovish Signals from the Federal ReserveInvestor sentiment was further influenced by dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. John Williams, President of the New York Fed, suggested that a rate cut could be implemented “without jeopardizing the inflation target,” which the market interpreted as a clear sign of a shift toward easing.Meanwhile, Susan Collins (Boston Fed) said the current level of interest rates is “appropriate,” and Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) stated she favors “pausing rate changes for a while.” Despite some caution, overall market sentiment is now tilting in favor of a rate cut in December.Bond Market Reaction and Impact on Risk AssetsThe bond market reacted swiftly. The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries fell by 4.8 basis points to 3.51%, while the 10-year yield dropped by 3.7 basis points to 4.067%. As a result, the yield curve steepened, with the 2Y–10Y spread rising to 55.5 basis points. zoom_out_map US 2-Year vs. 10-Year Bond Yield Daily Chart, source: TradingView Growing expectations for lower rates are benefiting not only bonds but also risk assets – including homebuilders and precious metals. For silver, which is highly sensitive to interest rate and inflation expectations, this environment creates heightened volatility.Silver as a Barometer of Monetary PolicySilver lost nearly 4% during today's session, falling to around $48.63 per ounce. However, silver contracts began to rise during premarket trading in the US. An hour before the US market closed, they rose above $50.35, reacting to the support zone around $49.40 and reducing the daily price decline to 0.63%. zoom_out_map 1 Hour and Daily chart of Silver, source: TradingView Falling interest rates typically support higher prices for precious metals by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, with uncertainty surrounding the Fed's next moves and analysts divided on the outlook, silver market volatility may continue to rise. Any new signal – whether from labor data, inflation figures, or Fed commentary – could trigger sharp price movements.For investors, this means one thing: the precious metals market, and silver in particular, is once again acting as a barometer for monetary policy expectations. The volatility we're now seeing may persist through the end of 2025 – and its scale will largely depend on how the Fed responds to upcoming macroeconomic data. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (21/11/2025): In today’s episode, join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss the latest market developments, including fresh dovish commentary from Fed officials, a continued slide in bitcoin price, and the so-called ‘AI bubble’. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It’s a red wave throughout the crypto world, a move that often tends to anticipate panic in broader financial markets. High leverage among investors is currently amplifying these profit-taking moves, creating a cascading effect that is sending altcoins into a punishing bearish loop. Bitcoin is trading around $83,000 and Solana below the $125 mark!Has the Crypto Bear Market started already?! zoom_out_map Daily overview of the Crypto Market, November 21, 2025 – Source: Finviz While Ethereum is holding up relatively better than many of its riskier altcoin peers, it is still subject to quite an aggressive repricing and is now fast approaching critical technical zones around $2,700. Showing some immediate buying reactions, heavy efforts will be required for Bulls to retake the momentum.Will it hold or break?Let's dive into a multi-timeframe Ethereum (ETH) analysis. Read More:Altcoins make new lows, Total Market Cap falls below the 2021 recordWhy this Weekly Close Matters as Fear takes over US StocksEUR/USD technical analysis: Spotting Mean Reversion in the 2,000 pip RangeA parenthesis on the Crypto Total Market Cap zoom_out_map Crypto Total Market Cap Weekly Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Crypto total Market Cap is taking another nose dive lower. The prospects for Crypto aren't good for now, but on the long-run, it will be necessary to see if the Digital Asset Market holds above the $2 Trillion mark.Ethereum (ETH) Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Weekly Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum is enduring the rough conditions of a weekly Tight Bear Channel to a 43% correction.Now coming close to the $2,500 to $2,700 Main Support, this key level will act as a test.A rebound here is largely possible, as the market tests the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the entire move higher; A strong level of interest for Traders and Algorithms.Below $2,500 however, the outlook is for a more downwards action.As mentioned in our altcoin analysis form yesterday, for long-term investments, creating regular buying programs (DCA-style) around here could make sense after such a strong correction.Nevertheless, the price action is not one of immediate rebound, so keep your risk in check.Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (testing)$2,620 Session and weekly Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot$3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs$3,800 September lows$4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe pivot zone$4,950 Current new All-time highs4H Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer to the intraday chart, some buying is ongoing at the lows of the Channel, 61.8% Fibonacci and the Key Support Area.A rebound would be mostly welcome for investors but to fully break out of the downward movement, traders will need a break above the $3,000 to $3,200 Pivot. Keep a close eye on the weekly close.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Global oil markets are showing a rapidly growing supply surplus.“Oil on water” volumes have surged, signaling difficulties in placing cargoes.Sanctioned oil flows increasingly contribute to the buildup in floating storage.New sanctions on Russia may intensify oversupply pressures in the coming weeks. A clear supply-side pressure is emerging in the global oil market, a trend that agencies such as the EIA and IEA have been signaling since the start of the year but which had not been fully visible in official statistics. The main reason was China accumulating crude oil outside the OECD reporting system. This situation, however, is now beginning to shift. Data from recent months show a marked increase in the volume of oil in maritime transport, an early indicator of an emerging imbalance between supply and demand.Although OECD inventories remain below their five-year average, the “oil on water” indicator is rising rapidly. According to the latest IEA report, the volume of crude held on tankers rose by 80 million barrels in September and by an additional 92 million barrels in preliminary October data. Vortexa figures confirm the scale of this increase.This level of accumulation at sea typically indicates that supply is starting to exceed current demand, and producers are finding it increasingly difficult to place their crude on end-markets. Oil “circulating” in transit is often the first sign of an impending surplus in the physical market. zoom_out_map Chart of a CFD contract based on the price of Brent crude oil, daily data, source: Tradingview The Role of Sanctioned Oil Flows A significant element of this dynamic is the contribution of sanctioned oil, which—according to the IEA—accounted for roughly one-third of the increase in the past two months. Crude subject to trade restrictions more frequently faces delivery delays, payment issues, and limited access to insurance and port infrastructure. As a result, tankers spend longer periods at sea, boosting total oil-on-water volumes.Upcoming Russian Sanctions Likely to Intensify the Trend Supply pressures may increase further with the 21 November sanctions taking effect on the two largest Russian oil companies, responsible for half of Russia’s total production and exports. If these sanctions restrict their ability to sell crude, the global market may face an even larger wave of “stranded” cargoes, reinforcing the upward trend in oil volumes held in transport. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways US equities suffered a sharp reversal, with major indices wiping out strong intraday gains and closing deeply in the red, marking the sharpest swing since April’s tariff shock.Nvidia’s failed post-earnings rally was the main catalyst, reversing from a 5% intraday surge to a 3.2% loss and erasing nearly $400 billion in market cap, triggering negative reflexivity across the Nasdaq 100.Technical conditions point to growing downside risk, with Nasdaq 100 market breadth deteriorating and Nvidia’s bearish setup threatening to drag the index into a deeper medium-term downtrend. The US stock market delivered a dramatic reversal on Thursday, 20 November 2025, its sharpest swing since April’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs shock.Bearish movements were observed in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, where both initially rose by 2% and 2.4%, respectively, before all gains were wiped out, ending the US session with losses of 1.6% and 2.4%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.8%) and small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.8%) were not spared from the rout.The main bearish trigger was the evaporation of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bellwether, Nvidia’s ex-post earnings share price gains, where it rallied by 5% intraday before a wave of relentless selling took place at mid-US session yesterday. Nvidia ended Thursday’s US session with a loss of 3.2%, wiping out almost $400 billion in market capitalization from its intraday high.Let’s now focus on the latest technical elements to decipher the medium-term trend (1 to 3 weeks) trajectory of the Nasdaq 100.Nvidia’s bearish reversal may trigger further negative reflexivity feedback loop zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Nvidia medium-term trend as of 20 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Nvidia’s ex-post Q4 2024 earnings results price actions on 26 February 2025 (Source: TradingView) Nvidia, being the AI juggernaut and the world’s most valuable company in terms of market capitalization, will have a significant impact on the movement of the Nasdaq 100 and the entire global equities universe via the sentiment feedback loop effect.Even though the current price actions of Nvidia are still holding at the 177.70 key medium-term pivotal support, the ex-post earnings price reaction has shaped a daily “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick (a long body that has a wide trading range and closed near its session low), which suggests that the 177.70 key medium-term support is vulnerable to a bearish breakdown (see Fig.1)Also, based on the prior Q4 2024 earnings release on 26 February 2025, Nvidia has shaped a similar daily “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick pattern that led to a price decline of 31% in the next 26 days (see Fig. 2).Hence, Nvidia now faces a technical deterioration that is likely to trigger further weakness in the Nasdaq 100.Bearish market breadth in the Nasdaq 100 zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above 50-day & 200-day moving averages as of 20 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Nasdaq 100 remains above its 200-day moving average, which continues to serve as a key long-term pivotal support at 22,250.However, market breadth has weakened sharply. The share of Nasdaq 100 constituents trading above their 200-day moving averages plunged from 50% on 12 November 2025 to just 28% by Thursday, 20 November 2025 (see Fig. 3).It has not reached the “bullish capitulation” zone of 13%/4% which suggests the Nasdaq 100 may have further room to decline at this juncture.Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks) – Start of medium-term downtrend zoom_out_map Fig. 4: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 21 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 futures) have dropped by around 8% from its current all-time high of 26,288 printed on 30 October 2025.Failure to hold above the 50-day moving average after a reintegration above it on Thursday, 20 November 2025, on an intraday basis invalidates a bullish reversal scenario.In addition, the 4-hour MACD trend indicator has continued to trend downwards steadily below its centreline, which reinforces a medium-term downtrend phase.Watch the 25,290 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also the 20-day moving average) for another leg of potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 23,455 and 22,990 (also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 22 April 2025 low to the current all-time high of 30 October 2025).A break below 22,900 may see a further decline to test the 22,250 key long-term pivotal support (also the 200-day moving average) (see Fig. 4).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks) A clearance above 25,290 key resistance negates the bearish tone to see a potential push up to retest 25,745. Only a breakout with a daily close above 25,745 kickstarts a potential brand new bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the current all-time high of 26,288, followed by the next medium-term resistance at 26,480/26,545. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Brutal Market Reversals – Market wrap for the North American session - November 20Provisional PMI data for November shows that business activity in the eurozone is still growing strongly, and companies are feeling optimistic about the upcoming year.However, there are some mixed signals: the growth of new orders has slowed down, and businesses stopped hiring new workers after a brief increase in October.Financially, companies are facing higher expenses. Their operating costs rose at the fastest speed in eight months, largely due to higher prices in manufacturing. Despite these rising costs, businesses only raised their own prices slightly, the smallest increase for customers in over a year. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) The eurozone economy continued to show solid growth in November, although the momentum remains uneven across sectors.Overall Activity: The Composite PMI Output Index posted at 52.4, signaling a solid monthly rise in business activity, marking the 11th consecutive month of growth. This rate of expansion is among the sharpest seen in the last two and a half years.Sector Divide: Growth was driven almost entirely by the service sector, which expanded at its fastest pace in a year and a half. In contrast, manufacturing production increased only slightly, tying for the slowest rate in the current nine-month growth sequence.New Orders: While new orders rose for the fourth month in a row, the rate of growth slowed down. This was largely due to weak international demand, as export orders (including trade within the eurozone) decreased again.On the inflation front, input costs rose at the fastest rate since March, but output price inflation eased to its lowest level in just over a year. Business sentiment edged higher in November, signaling improving confidence despite softer demand indicators.Euro Area Q3 Negotiated Wages The European Central Bank's survey of negotiated wages for the third quarter came in well below expectations with a print of 1.87% YoY vs estimates of 2.45%. The ECB and market participants had been hoping for a better number which would have shown that real wages are rising which would lead to solid demand in 2026.This will now be something the ECB will monitor moving forward and lines up with some of the concerns around demand raised by the PMI data.Technical Analysis - EUR/USD Looking at EUR/USD from a technical standpoint, the pair appears on course to print a fresh lower low.EUR/USD has largely been driven by US Dollar developments of late and the one concern may hinge on the price action of the US Dollar Index.The Dollar index has peaked above the psychological 100.00 mark but has printed what looks like a double top pattern.If the Dollar index begins to drop this could scupper the move for EUR/USD to print a fresh lower low and EUR/USD coil revisit the recent swing high at 1.1650.EUR/USD Daily Chart, November 21, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.com Support1.15001.1450 (key pivot level)1.1405 (200-day MA)Resistance1.15851.16501.1700Looking Ahead Later in the day we have several central bank officials are scheduled to speak today, most notably ECB President Christine Lagarde at a conference in Frankfurt. Since the event focuses on the benefits of investing in Europe, Lagarde may discuss the idea of strengthening the Euro's role on the world stage. Recent reports suggest the ECB is considering a plan to let central banks outside the eurozone access Euros more easily.This strategy is designed to make countries more comfortable using the Euro for international trade, similar to a method China has used for its currency and to boost the Euro's global standing.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 20The question of whether Markets would give more emphasis to the Fed Hawkish turn or the Nvidia earnings, emitted yesterday found an answer:Markets are not playing games anymore; Higher for longer rates may dampen investment and activity looking forward.The year is ending on some doubts, after quite a spectacular run to new highs since April 2025.After opening on a strong leg higher, the first resistance that traders saw got used as a mean mean-reversion point, which took the Nasdaq from up 1.50% to down 3% at its extremes.Today was one of the most brutal reversal days that Markets have seen in a while, and similarly as last time, metals also got dragged lower. Is the Rebasement trade going to be a thing? (Rebasement serves as the opposite of the Debasement Trade, where Stocks, Metals and Currencies rallied against the USD). Read More:Altcoins make new lows, Total Market Cap falls below the 2021 recordBank of Japan on high alert: USD/JPY tests Key 158.00 ResistanceMarket fakeout: Nvidia rally fades as US Stocks reverseCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView It seems that the Market has taken quite a turn towards safe-havens again.All assets at the front of the risk-curve are getting rejected brutally, with Nasdaq down about 2.60% and finishes the session even below Bitcoin.On the other hand, Gold, the USD and US Treasuries have enjoyed the session. A more typical risk-off setup.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 20 – Source: OANDA Labs FX markets have decorrelated from the traditional performances one could expect to see:Except for the US Dollar which saw another strong session, the Pound is performing well amid the ongoing risk-aversion (normally correlates positively with Stocks).On the other hand, the even-more "risk-on" AUD and NZD did follow the theme pretty well. With the IMF starting to send some warnings to the Australian debt issue, one could expect to see more of these flows.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's going to be quite a roller coaster!The session starts early with high-impact releases out of the UK and Europe:GBP traders face two key events: the high-tier UK Retail Sales (3:00 A.M. ET) and the S&P Global PMIs (5:30 A.M. ET), both critical for the Bank of England’s policy path.For the Eurozone, focus is on the preliminary HCOB PMIs (4:30 - 5:00 A.M. ET), the first look at November's economic health. This follows ECB President Lagarde's speech, which may preempt the PMI data.The market then shifts to the North American session:CAD Retail Sales (9:30 A.M. ET) is the primary domestic event, a high-tier check on Canadian consumer resilience.For the US, two major high-tier releases will drive volatility:S&P Global PMIs (10:45 A.M. ET): Preliminary view of November activity.Michigan Consumer Sentiment (11:00 A.M. ET): Key for confidence and, critically, Inflation Expectations.The day is peppered with comments from a massive slate of central bank speakers, including FED's Williams, Barr, Jefferson, and Logan, alongside BoE's Pill and ECB officials. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

At the time of writing, gold trades at $4077 per troy ounce, having erased gains made prior to the months-delayed September US Nonfarm Payrolls release.Relatively unchanged at -0.02% in today’s session, gold currently trades approximately 7.00% shy of all-time highs made in October, and remains on pace to secure a remarkable yearly gain of over 50% in 2025.What’s next for gold?Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 20/11/2025 Picking up in volatility in recent weeks, precious metal markets remain highly active as markets readjust expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December 10th decisionWith yesterday’s FOMC minutes revealing “strongly differing views” in the most recent meeting, a better-than-expected September NFP report adds to rationale to slow down the Fed’s current easing cycleAlbeit now concluded, the US government shutdown and the knock-on effect on data availability still cast a shadow over financial markets, with many using gold as a hedge against policy risk and a perceived decline in central bank efficacy Market Insights Podcast (20/11/2025): Listen to me and TraderNick discuss markets today: September NFP, Bitcoin, NVIDIA earnings and BoE rate cut betsGold (XAU/USD): September NFP report eases pressure on December rate cut Having had at least some dealings with the financial markets for the best part of ten years now, today marks a special occasion, being the first time I’m discussing nonfarm payrolls on the 20th of the month.While I can only speak for myself, I’m happy to see NFP back on the calendar in any capacity, especially considering the lack of economic data in the last month or so.With that said, this brings us back to today, and, albeit representing conditions from some time ago, today saw the release of September’s nonfarm payroll report, which beat expectations by +69,000 jobs.Keeping our focus on precious metal markets, let’s discuss some implications for gold, as well as further macroeconomic themes currently at play.Gold (XAU/USD): Fundamental Analysis 20/11/2025September jobs beat to further Fed hawkish tilt: Let’s start by addressing the most recent and obvious fundamental happening in the last twelve hours - the September NFP report.Delayed just shy of two months owing to the US government shutdown, September’s numbers beat expectations by some margin. However, the report also noted rising unemployment to 4.4%, its highest level since 2021, as well as downward revisions to both July and August numbers.While this is fairly mixed on the surface, markets have received some assurance that the US labour market was stronger than expected before the US government shutdown took place.Speaking of which, we’ve also recently had confirmation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that October’s NFP release will not be postponed indefinitely, and alongside the delayed release of November’s report, today serves as the last NFP report available before the Federal Reserve votes again on interest rates early December.Tying this all together, and considering the most recent data, albeit two months old, shows some buoyancy in the US labour market, this will not only somewhat relieve the pressure for further rate cuts by the Fed, but further vindicates a pre-existing hawkish tilt, best described by Vice Chair Jefferson’s commitment to “proceed slowly” in the current easing cycle. Read my coverage on USD/CHF from earlier this week, including comments by Vice Chair Jefferson On gold pricing, there’s no surprise that any notion of higher interest rates spells trouble for the current rally in gold pricing, with price action in the last week or so, alongside the Fed’s increasingly hawkish stance, testament to this. zoom_out_map CME FedWatch, 20/11/2025 At the time of writing, the CME FedWatch tool predicts rates will be maintained in the upcoming meeting, currently at odds of 60.2%, with a 39.8% chance of a rate cut.It’s worth noting that, just a few short weeks ago, directly following the October decision, markets had almost ‘nailed-on’ a consecutive rate cut in December, with this change of expectations going some way in explaining the pullback seen in precious metal pricing.Split room highlighted in October FOMC Minutes: Released yesterday, minutes shared from the October rate decision highlight an increasingly divided group of policymakers ahead of the December decision, adding further rationale to expectations of rates being left unchanged.In brief, the meeting can be summarised as follows: “Several” participants believed that another rate in December could be justified if the labour market continues to slow. Naturally, today’s NFP raises some questions over this“Many” others deemed that a maintenance of the current rate, held at 4.00%, would be the appropriate choice in December, especially considering the lack of economic data to guide decisions in recent monthsFocus seems to be primarily on the jobs market, as opposed to inflation or economic activity, which makes today’s NFP report, which will be the last before the December decision, even more significant Read the full October FOMC Minutes here For reasons discussed above, at least one result is a dampening of gold upside, which would likely receive a second wind if rates were to be cut.Gold as a hedge against policy failure: While the above casts some shadow on gold upside, markets are currently asking one question: How can the Fed make the right decision with no data?On this basis, and despite the notion that higher interest rates are inherently gold negative, there is some evidence that markets are using gold as a hedge against policy failure.Put simply, and while the Fed could be forgiven considering the lack of data, suppose a decision to hold in December was found to be, in hindsight, the wrong decision when more data is made available, this could spell trouble for the dollar, making gold a more attractive option to store wealth by comparison.Albeit a minor theme at play, this could offer some precious metals upside, as markets are less confident of the Fed’s grasp on current conditions, although by no fault of their own.XAU/USD: Technical Analysis 20/11/2025XAU/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 20/11/2025 I’m pleased to say that, as per my previous coverage, the first price target of $4,090 was hit in yesterday’s session.Going forward, here are some other levels to consider:Price targets and support/resistance levels: Price target/Resistance #1 - $4,240 - Previous support/resistancePrice target/Resistance #2 - $4,381 - All-time highsSupport #1 - $4,031 - 20-Period SMASupport #2 - $4,000 - Key psychological levelSupport #3 - $3,889 - Swing low While, in fairness, my commentary above suggests a somewhat bearish angle in the short term for gold, it’s essential to remember that gold has rallied in response to other macro factors this year, despite a staunchly hawkish Fed for much of 2025.To the downside, the yellow metal remains well supported by many moving averages, as well as the key psychological level of $4,000, which was breached for the first time earlier this year.Otherwise, and in the immediate, we have seen a few pin bars to suggest that there is further bullish appetite for gold, despite a more hawkish Fed putting a lid on 2025 upside - at least for now. Read Elior’s coverage on the cryptocurrency markets in today’s session: Altcoins make new lows, Total Market Cap falls below the 2021 record Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies are once again enduring a brutal selloff.With Bitcoin breaching its recent lows, currently below $87,000, we are witnessing a massive wave of profit-taking that is dragging the broader market down with it.Many altcoins have shed 50% to 70% of their value—or worse in the most volatile cases—with major names like Solana down roughly 48% from its highs. zoom_out_map Daily overview of the Crypto Market (15:39 ET), November 20, 2025 – Source: Finviz When panic grips the market, it often disguises the best opportunities. But how do you seize them safely?Define Your Risk: Start by selecting Cryptos you genuinely believe in, but strictly define your risk—never invest more than you can afford to lose. This is the cost of admission in the game of investing and trading.Automate Your Entry: Instead of trying to time the absolute bottom, set up a recurring buy program (Dollar-Cost Averaging). If prices drop, you lower your average entry cost; if prices rise, your existing position becomes a winner. This strategy removes emotion from the equation.Diversify: One of the golden rules is to never put all your eggs in one basket. Spreading your capital across different assets protects you from project-specific failures.Crypto markets are notorious for playing mind games, and it is precisely during these confused, volatile moments that mistakes are made.Investing is a game of probability, not certainty. Entering the market when quality assets are down 33% from their all-time highs historically offers a far better return than chasing green candles, even if it may take time for prices to recover.The question remains: is the panic just starting, or is the worst behind us?Watch your risk carefully to ensure you can survive to play the long game.Let's dive into some altcoin charts with Solana, XRP, and Cardano (ADA). Read More:Market fakeout: Nvidia rally fades as US Stocks reverseBank of Japan on high alert: USD/JPY tests Key 158.00 ResistanceNasdaq rebounds: Nvidia (NVDA) earnings beat ends AI winter fearsThe Total Market Cap corrects sharply below its 2021 Record zoom_out_map Total Crypto Market Cap, November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView The ongoing selling took the Market Cap below its 2021 peak 0f $3.01 trillion. Some traders are getting shaken out to say the least.In case you don't know, the Market Cap is the (almost) total sum of money that is into Cryptocurrencies.It got hurt quite a bit from the violent selling. Therefore, keep an eye on if things get worse from here.Solana Daily Chart zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) 8H Chart, November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Solana is reaching similar levels as the bottom seen throughout the June War risk-off move, right around of $130.Down 48%, Solana is the Major altcoin that saw the most brutal selloff compared to its peers.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:Main Support $125 to $132$110 to $115 SupportDaily lows $129Support 3: 100 to 105Resistance Levels:$150 Psychological Pivot$185 Momentum ResistancePsychological level $200 to $205$253 recent highsXRP Daily Chart zoom_out_map Ripple (XRP) Daily Chart, November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView XRP is reaching the $2.00 Zone which acts as a key level for upcoming sentiment.Holding above this region could relaunch further interest in the Coin after a 45% retracement from its top.It is also reaching the lows of its Descending Channel, which makes it a key support to hold.Further support will be around $1.60 if this breaks.Levels to keep on your XRP Charts:Support Levels:Key support between $2.00 to $2.10 and low of channel$2.00 psychological level$1.60 April 2025 support$1.37 October 10 wick$1.30 to $1.40Resistance Levels:Main Support now Pivot - $2.60 to $2.70 and top of channelResistance at March $3.00 Wick$3.10 to $3.20 resistance$3.40 Resistance ZoneCurrent ATH resistance around $3.66Cardano (ADA) Daily Chart zoom_out_map Cardano (ADA) Daily Chart, November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cardano (ADA) is probably the most brutal chart in the Major altcoins, having failed to reach its End 2024 peaks again throughout the bull cycle.Close to reach its 2024 Support between $0.30 to $0.35, it will be interesting to see if dip-buying comes to save the Crypto out of its selling flows.Levels to keep on your ADA Charts:Support Levels:Current Pivot between $0.50 to $0.55$0.70 Main ResistanceSeptember Resistance around $0.90$1.00 Main Resistance$1.32 December 2024 HighsResistance Levels:$0.30 to $0.35 2024 Support and Channel Lows$0.28 October 10 Crash lows$0.25 2023 Main SupportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (20/11/2025): In the latest podcast episode, we discuss the previously postponed September Nonfarm payrolls report, yesterday’s UK inflation numbers, Nvidia earnings, and a sharp fall in crypto value, with bitcoin now under $90,000. Join OANDA Financial Writer Christian Norman, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A sharp reversal wiped out the ecstatic momentum from the open, bringing worrying signs back into the markets.Traders are starting to fade Nvidia’s earnings reaction after Nasdaq hits the top of the Daily Pivot zone highlighted in our Morning in-depth analysis. Most Read: Nasdaq rebounds: Nvidia (NVDA) earnings beat ends AI winter fears With no major headlines driving the shift, the market seems increasingly concerned about renewed hawkish repricing from the Fed.Now the question is whether rangebound action takes over or if new highs or lows trigger further sharp continuation. Confusion is definitely in the air.Here’s a look at a few US index intraday charts — not a pretty picture right now. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (12:13 A.M.) – November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView What a reversal!Nasdaq 1H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 1H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView zoom_out_map Nvidia (NVDA) 1H Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Ministry of Finance have been expressing deepening concern over the Yen's trajectory, a move exaggerated by broad US Dollar strength fueled by the Fed's own hawkish repricing.A recent meeting between the fiscally dovish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has seemingly failed to calm the squeeze in this most volatile of FX pairs.The pair is up over 3% since the start of November trading, recently testing the 158.00 level in a relentless race higher.Participants are now actively pricing in potential BoJ intervention; however, historical action suggests these moves are often faded by the market, rendering them inefficient.Some analysts point to a most-effective window for intervention during the Thanksgiving holiday liquidity drain, when fewer traders are present to fade the move, though a continuation of this move could force a "first round" of action even sooner.Ultimately, this relentless market pressure may force the BoJ's hand to hike rates despite PM Takaichi's well-known opposition to tightening—a menace that has lingered since her appointment.Only a reassuring and decisive monetary policy shift is likely to halt the squeeze, much like it did last July.Fiscal recklessness is a force markets always reckon with, and traders are currently testing the BoJ's resilience against the current government's dovish agenda.Let's dive right into a High to short timeframe analysis of USD/JPY. Read More:Markets Today: NFP in Focus as Rate Cut Bets Tumble, NVIDIA Earnings Boost SentimentNikkei 225: Bulls back in vogue with 4% “Takaichi Trade”rallyNorth American mid-week Market update – US Data is finally back!USD/JPY Weekly to Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWeekly Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY Weekly Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Now above 8,000 pips from its 50-week Moving Average, the USD/JPY is coming close to its 2025 January peak with brutal strength.Mean-reversion for such moves is a painful trade, with the Weekly candles all overlapping each other in a weekly tight-bull channel.The only sign of reversion would be a weekly candle closing below the prior bar, and these often comes when momentum slows down.But there aren't many signs of a slowdown on the weekly timeframe for now.The weekly RSI is also coming towards overbought, but with no divergence yet, it will be important to see if "Urgent" warnings from the Finance Minister serve to slow down the move.Some profit-taking mean-reversion is currently going through as prices came very close to the 158.00 handle (157.895 session highs).Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/JPY Daily Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY technical levels of interest:Support Levels:153.00 to 154.00 Key Resistance now Pivot154.420 Weekly lows10-Day MA 151.50150.00 Psychological Support and 50-Week MA146.00 August Range Main SupportResistance Levels:Session highs 157.895Key Resistance 157.00 to 158.00 (testing)2025 Highs and April 2024 peaks 158.80 to 160.001990 and July 2024 Peak 161.00 to 162.008H Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY 8H Chart. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Shorter timeframes point to some imminent indecision, with the past two 8H Candles forming Dojis right below the 158.00 level.Mean reversion is far from guaranteed after such a squeeze, as the Tight bull channel also corroborates on this timeframe.Nonetheless, a slow down in the buying points to a local top.Keep an eye on these two points:157.895 – Session highs: Any hourly close above should prompt continuation higher.156.850 – A daily close below may trigger further profit-taking.156.00 – A retest of the broken wedge may act as dip-buying point.Intervention might act all the way to 150.00 if efficient.Keep a close eye on Bank of Japan communications. zoom_out_map USD/JPY 1H Chart and intraday levels. November 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asian Market Wrap - Equities Recover Post NVIDIA Earnings Most Read: Nikkei 225: Bulls back in vogue with 4% “Takaichi Trade”rallyGlobal stock markets went up because chip company Nvidia reported very strong expected sales, which made people less worried about a possible "bubble" or crash in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) industry.The markets focused on technology, especially in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, saw the biggest increases. This happened after Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, emphasized the huge demand for their AI chips from big internet companies and dismissed fears of an AI bubble. Other major Asian markets felt the same positive effect.Although the gains didn't continue at the same high pace all day, the main stock indexes in Tokyo (up 2.6%), Korea (up 2.3%), and Taiwan (up 3.2%) all made large jumps, especially the companies that manufacture parts for the AI supply chain. For instance, major chip and tech-related companies like TSMC (up 4.3%), Samsung Electronics (up 5.3%), SK Hynix (up 2.2%), and Tokyo Electron (up 5.4%) all rose significantly.A broad index of Asian stocks (excluding Japan) went up by 1.1%, recovering from a recent low. The positive momentum was further boosted by news that the US might postpone planned taxes on imported semiconductors, which could help ease trade disagreements with China.European Session - European Shares Advance European stock markets rose on Thursday, driven by a general feeling of relief across global markets. This positive mood followed the strong financial results reported by Nvidia.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, was up by 1%, with markets in Germany and France also increasing by more than 1%. Nvidia's excellent quarterly results and promising future outlook came at a critical time, helping to calm investors who had been worried in recent weeks about a possible global AI bubble. Even though some concerns about an AI bubble still exist, Nvidia's performance temporarily lessened the anxiety, causing its shares listed in Frankfurt to jump by 6.2%.The European technology index climbed by 1.8%, with chip-related companies like Infineon and ASML both gaining 2.8%. Companies that make equipment for the AI boom, such as Schneider Electric and Siemens Energy, also saw increases of 2% and 4%, respectively.In company news, French bank BNP Paribas saw its shares rise by 5.7% after it announced a higher target for its financial stability measure (the CET1 ratio) for the year 2027.On the FX front, the US dollar was strong on Thursday, having achieved its biggest single-day gain in six weeks. This strength came after notes from the Federal Reserve meeting suggested it was less likely that the US would cut interest rates in December.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen fell significantly because people are betting that Japan will not immediately intervene to stop the currency from weakening. The yen hit its lowest level in 10 months at 157.48. This decline started after Japan's Finance Minister indicated that there were no specific talks about foreign exchange at a meeting with the Bank of Japan Governor.Other major currencies also weakened against the dollar: the euro fell to a two-week low of $1.1510, and the British pound (sterling) slipped to $1.3040. The New Zealand dollar had dropped sharply the day before, hitting a seven-month low of $0.5591, mainly because interest rate expectations in New Zealand are moving away from those in the US; it was stable on Thursday at $0.5611.Overall, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies, rose by 0.5% overnight and continued to climb, settling at 100.25.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased slightly on Thursday, recovering a bit after falling the day before. This small rise was caused by news that US crude oil supplies dropped by more than expected. This positive news for prices managed to outweigh concerns that the US trying to help end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could bring more oil onto the market, which is already well-supplied.Specifically, Brent crude futures went up by 20 cents (or 0.31%) to $63.72 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 22 cents (or 0.37%) to $59.66 per barrel.Gold price fell in early European trade as markets grappled with hawkish repricing of rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve. A resurgent US Dollar has also weighed on the precious metal as the US Dollar Index trades above the 100.00 psychological barrier.Read More:NFP Preview: BLS Announces No October Report, November Report Delayed to After Fed Meeting. Rate Cut Bets Tumble Further, Implications for the DXYUSD/JPY: Potential minor top at 155.30, USD at risk of bearish reversal towards 154.20/153.65Gold (XAU/USD): 9% dead cat bounce rally at risk of reversal, watch US$4,036 downside triggerEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet one in terms of data releases as markets begin to brace for the US session.In the US session, attention will shift to the long-delayed official US jobs report, which is expected to influence what the Federal Reserve decides to do with its interest rate policy next month.The report carries extra weight now that the BLS has confirmed that Jobs data for October will not be released while the November data will only be released after the Federal Reserves December meeting. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken below the crucial 200-day MA and remains below the 50 level on the period-14 RSI. This hints at significant bearish momentum still in play.Despite this, the optimism around NVIDIA could propel the index higher with a retest of the 200-day MA and a move higher a real possibility.Immediate resistance rests at 9610 and 9661 before the 100-day MA at 9734 comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, October 20. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nikkei 225 remains supported by macro tailwinds, including aggressive fiscal stimulus under PM Takaichi and a renewed steepening in Japan’s government bond yield curves, both historically correlated with upside in the index.A weakening Japanese yen is attracting stronger foreign inflows, with USD/JPY at a 10-month high and foreign net purchases of Japanese equities trending higher, reinforcing bullish pressure on the Nikkei 225.Short-term technicals lean positive, with the Japan 225 CFD Index holding above key moving averages and momentum indicators strengthening; a break above 50,730 could unlock the next leg higher towards 51,530 and 52,775/52,830. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Nikkei 225: Plummeted towards a key inflection support zone at 49,370/48,450 for potential bullish reversal”, published on 5 November 2025.The Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) has staged the expected minor bullish reversal right at the 49,370/48,450 key inflection support zone as it dropped to an intraday low of 49,099 on 5 November before it rallied by 4.9% to hit an intraday high of 51,514 on 13 November.Thereafter, it wobbled, erased its earlier gains, and declined by 4.8% to retest the lower limit of the key inflection support at 48,450 on Tuesday, 18 November, on the backdrop of a weaker footing from the US stock market due to fears of overvaluation in Artificial Intelligence (AI)- related stocks.Interestingly, several localized macro factors remain supportive of the ongoing short- to medium-term bullish trend of the Nikkei 225. Let’s examine them in greater detail.Further steepening of the JGB yield curve as it broke new highs zoom_out_map Fig. 1: JGGs yield curve with Nikkei 225 major trends as of 20 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) The “Takaichi Trade” is backed in the front seat as market participants turn their attention to focus on the new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s push on the implementation of an aggressive fiscal policy and a tilt towards lower interest rates to drive economic growth in Japan.Takaichi’s administration is expected to unveil a new economic package in parliament this week, where the additional supplementary budget for this fiscal year is expected to be at around 20 trillion yen, far bigger than the 13.9 trillion-yen package compiled a year ago by Takaichi’s predecessor.The higher fiscal stimulus is likely to trigger a boost to domestic consumption in Japan as early as the first quarter of 2026, in turn, causing the Japanese Government (JGB) yield curves (both the 10-year and 30-year against 2-year) to steepen further (see Fig. 1).The 10-year/2-year JGB yield curve has broken above its prior May 2025 high of 0.82% and currently trades at 0.86%, a 13-year high.In addition, the 30-year/2-year JGB yield curve jumped to a new record high of 2.44% at the time of writing, surpassing the September 2025 peak of 2.39%.The major bullish breakout (steepening conditions) of the JGB yield curves (both 10-year and 30-year against the 2-year) since June 2022 has a direct correlation with the movements of the Nikkei 225.Hence, the continuation of a further steepening of the JGB yield curves is likely to trigger another round of a positive feedback loop in the Nikkei 225.A weak JPY may attract higher foreign net inflows into Japanese equities zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Correlation trends of USD/JPY & S&P 500 with Nikkei 225 as of 20 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Net purchases of Tokyo & Nagoya stock exchanges as of 7 Nov 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Another “cause and effect” from the “Takaichi Trade” is a weaker JPY, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to face an increased risk of jawboning from the new administration in pushing back the gradual interest rate hikes advocated by BoJ’s latest monetary policy stance.The Japanese yen has weakened significantly against the US dollar in the past month, where it shot past 154.00 “easily” to trade at a 10-month low of 157.50 per US dollar at the time of writing.The USD/JPY has been moving in direct union with the Nikkei 225 since September 2025, where the 20-week rolling correlation coefficient of the USD/JPY with the Nikkei 225 stands at a high value of 0.82 as of 20 November 2025 (see Fig. 2).In conjunction, the 52-week average of foreign investors’ net purchases of Japanese equities listed on the Tokyo and Nagoya stock exchanges has continued to increase from 77.44 billion in the week of 10 October 2025 to 93.98 billion for the week of 7 November 2025 (see Fig. 3).Hence, a further weakening of the JPY may see a continuation of more foreign inflows to support the bullish trend of the Nikkei 225.Let’s now shift to Nikkei 225’s potential share price trajectory from a short-term technical perspective, focusing on the next one to three days.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Potential bullish break above 20-day moving average zoom_out_map Fig. 4: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 20 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) Bullish bias with 49,085 as key short-term pivotal support for the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures).A clearance above 50,730 (also the 20-day moving average) reinforces the potential bullish impulsive up move sequence to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 51,530 and 52,775/52,830 next (see Fig. 4).Key elements The price action of the Japan 225 CFD Index has continued to oscillate above its 50-day moving average and a medium-term ascending channel support that has been in place since the 7 April 2025 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to shape a series of “higher lows” without any bearish divergence condition at its overbought zone (above the 70 level).These observations suggest the medium-term uptrend phase of the Japan 225 CFD Index remains intact with a build-up in short-term bullish momentum.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 49,085 key short-term support negates the bullish tone on the Japan 225 CFD Index for a slide to retest the 48,450 key medium-term pivotal support. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.