The FX comments are the most market-relevant element of Himino's remarks and land with particular force given Thursday's USD/JPY spike to 161.80. By explicitly stating that yen moves carry a larger inflation impact than in the past due to shifts in corporate behaviour, Himino has effectively connected the FX rate to the BoJ's policy calculus in a way that goes beyond the standard disclaimer that monetary policy does not target exchange rates. That framing gives the BoJ implicit cover to accelerate the hiking path if yen weakness persists, without formally adopting an FX mandate. The underlying inflation deviation risk comment reinforces the April minutes' hawkish undercurrent and keeps the next hike firmly in view.--- BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said the bank expects to keep raising rates, flagged risk of underlying inflation deviating from target, and warned FX moves now have a larger inflation impact than historically. Summary:The BoJ expects to continue raising rates in line with economic, price and financial developments, with pace and timing to be guided by the likelihood of the baseline scenario materialising and associated risksUnderlying inflation is approaching 2% but carries risk of deviating upward, with Himino cautioning that recent price rises are not driven solely by temporary supply factorsJapan's economy is solid overall, supported by high corporate profits and household income, despite the drag from elevated oil pricesFX moves are among the key factors affecting Japan's economy and prices; while monetary policy does not target exchange rates, Himino said the inflation impact of FX moves has grown due to changes in corporate behaviourThe BoJ will continue to monitor FX developments carefully given their potential effect on inflation expectations and underlying inflationBank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino used a Friday appearance to reinforce the bank's hiking bias while delivering a pointed message on the yen that markets would have been unwise to miss.The core message on rates was consistent with post-June meeting guidance: the BoJ expects to keep raising, with pace and timing calibrated against the evolving baseline and its associated risks. Himino added texture by flagging that underlying inflation is approaching 2% but that the risk of it deviating from target runs to the upside, not because of a temporary energy spike but because of something more durable in the price-setting environment. That distinction matters. It echoes the April minutes' concern that Japan's shift away from a deflationary mindset has made the economy more responsive to cost pressures than in previous cycles.The more immediately traded element was his commentary on foreign exchange. Himino was careful to restate the standard BoJ position that monetary policy does not target FX moves. He then qualified it in a way that carries real weight: compared with the past, yen weakness now has a larger impact on inflation due to changes in corporate behaviour. The implication is that a sustained depreciation feeds through to prices faster and more broadly than historical models would suggest, which in turn affects inflation expectations and the underlying inflation trajectory the BoJ is trying to manage.Coming on the same day that USD/JPY tested 161.80 before a sharp reversal, Himino's remarks land as more than routine communication. The BoJ is watching the yen, it is not indifferent to where it goes, and the policy rate is the instrument that connects the two. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

One of those headlines that''' trigger a wobble down, will soon pass. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The minutes are retrospectively hawkish given that the BoJ has since moved to 1.00%, validating the three dissenters who argued for exactly that level in April. The more significant market signal is the board's near-unanimous recognition that underlying inflation was approaching 2% and that real rates remained deeply negative, a framing that keeps further normalisation firmly on the table. With Hormuz now reopening and crude prices retreating, the specific Middle East risk premium that gave the majority cover to hold in April is fading, which arguably clears the path for the pace of hikes to resume. USD/JPY's sensitivity to any BoJ communication is heightened in this context.--- BoJ's April minutes showed a 6-3 vote to hold at 0.75%, with three members pushing for 1.00%, as the board flagged upside inflation risks and deepening price-pass-through from energy costs. (190 chars)Full text: Bank of Japan minutes of the April 27-28, 2026 monetary policy meeting:Summary:The Policy Board voted 6-3 to hold the overnight call rate at 0.75%; dissenters Nakagawa, Takata and Tamura each proposed raising to 1.00%, citing upside price risks, second-round effects, and the need to move toward the neutral rateThe majority held on grounds that Middle East uncertainty made the baseline scenario harder to assess, not because they disputed the inflation directionCPI ex-fresh food was running 1.5-2.0% at the time of the meeting but the board projected 2.5-3.0% for fiscal 2026 as energy cost pass-through acceleratedMembers broadly agreed that firms' price-setting behaviour had shifted structurally, with wage pass-through widening beyond large firms to smaller enterprises following Rengo spring negotiations showing around 3.5% base pay increasesThe board flagged that inflation expectations, while not yet as anchored as in the US or Europe, had risen to approximately 2% and were at risk of deviating further upward if crude prices stayed elevatedSeveral members noted the neutral rate remained some distance away and that the pace of hikes may need to accelerate if upside price risks intensifiedThe Bank of Japan's April minutes, released Friday, read less like a record of a hold decision and more like a staging post on the way to the June hike that followed.The 6-3 vote to keep the overnight call rate at 0.75% masked a board that was, in substance, broadly aligned on the direction of travel. The three dissenters, Nakagawa, Takata and Tamura, argued for an immediate move to 1.00%. Their reasoning varied in emphasis but converged on the same core view: underlying inflation was close enough to 2%, real rates were deeply negative, and waiting carried more risk than moving. Tamura was the most direct, arguing the bank should position the policy rate as close to neutral as possible given the upside skew in price risks.The majority's case for holding rested almost entirely on Middle East uncertainty rather than any disagreement about the inflation trajectory. Several members acknowledged that CPI excluding fresh food was likely to reach 2.5-3.0% across fiscal 2026 as energy cost pass-through accelerated through supply chains. They noted that firms' price-setting behaviour had shifted structurally since the post-Ukraine period, with a wider range of sectors, including dining-out and public transportation, actively passing on personnel and distribution cost increases. Spring wage negotiations had delivered around 3.5% base pay increases not just at large firms but at smaller enterprises, reinforcing the wage-price dynamic the BoJ had long sought.The board also flagged a risk that had not been prominent in earlier meetings: that inflation expectations in Japan, historically adaptive rather than anchored, could overshoot if crude prices remained elevated. Several members noted this distinguished the current episode from the 1979 oil shock, when wage and price responses were contained. The institutional memory of that comparison was doing work in the room.With Hormuz now reopening and the BoJ having moved to 1.00% in June, the April minutes are most useful as a guide to what comes next. The dissenters' framework, move early, move toward neutral, do not wait for perfect clarity, appears to have carried the board. Whether the pace of further adjustments accelerates will depend on how quickly the energy shock fades from the inflation print. Not that there seems to be much need for a fade:Japan May inflation data: Headline 1.5% y/y (expected 1.5%) Core 1.4% (expected 1.4%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I'll have more to come on this separately.For now, just the data:National CPI:ex Food, Energy (YoY) (May) 1.8% y/y ... aka Core-core and the closest to the US measure of core inflation:expected 1.9%1.8% is the slowest since September 2022ex Fresh Food (YoY) (May) 1.4% ... aka Core:expected 1.4%, prior 1.4% Headline 1.5%expected 1.4%, prior 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sterling faces a modest negative undercurrent from the data, not from the headline number, which came in marginally better than forecast, but from the sub-index deterioration that points to softening domestic demand ahead. Major purchase intentions sitting at joint-lowest levels since January 2025 is a quiet signal for retailers and discretionary spending. For the Bank of England, the youth pessimism data adds a nuanced wrinkle: a headline that holds steady gives little cover for either hawks or doves, but the underlying trend is clearly not improving.--- UK GfK consumer confidence held at -23 in June, matching May and beating the Reuters poll forecast of -24, but sub-indices revealed deteriorating sentiment among younger consumers and on personal finances. Summary:The GfK Consumer Confidence Index held at -23 in June, unchanged from May and one point better than the Reuters poll median of -24Confidence among 16-to-29-year-olds fell 11 points to -2, the weakest reading in two yearsConsumers' assessment of their personal finances over the past 12 months fell three points to -10, while the forward-looking measure held at -2Major purchase intentions were unchanged at -20, matching the joint-lowest level since January 2025The general economic outlook for the past year fell two points to -49, though the 12-month forward view improved two points to -36GfK consumer insights director Neil Bellamy warned the flat headline was misleading given the weakness visible in underlying measuresBritain's headline consumer confidence number held firm in June but GfK's own director stepped forward almost immediately to say it should not be taken at face value, and the sub-indices support his caution.The index printed at -23, matching May and nudging above the Reuters poll consensus of -24. On the surface that reads as resilience. Beneath it, the picture is more uncomfortable. Confidence among the 16-to-29 age cohort dropped 11 points to -2, the weakest in two years, a move that stands out sharply against a steady headline and suggests the political and economic uncertainty weighing on the broader mood is landing hardest on younger consumers who have the least financial buffer to absorb it.Personal finance assessments for the past 12 months fell three points to -10, while major purchase intentions remained pinned at -20, matching the joint-lowest reading since January 2025. Neither number points to a consumer base preparing to spend its way through uncertainty.Neil Bellamy, GfK's consumer insights director, put it plainly: the lack of movement in the headline figure is misleading, and new signs of weakening are visible for those willing to look. That kind of direct editorial from the survey's own publisher is worth noting. Data providers rarely volunteer that their headline is obscuring something worse.The one fragment of forward optimism is a two-point improvement in the 12-month economic outlook to -36, though at that level the word optimism is doing heavy lifting. British consumers are not confident. They are simply, for now, no less unconfident than they were last month. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I'll have more to come on this separately.Just the data, for now:New Zealand Balance of Trade (May) 800mn surplusexpected +875mn, prior +1.92bnExports 8.88bnprior 8.62bnImports 8.08bnprior 6.7bn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

USD/JPY reversed sharply from 161.80 in the US afternoon session on Thursday in a single sharp move with no confirmed catalyst, leaving traders divided between technical, intervention and flow-based explanations. Summary:USD/JPY rallied from around 160.60 to a session high of 161.80 before reversing sharply in a move consistent with large order flow rather than a slow technical unwindChief Cabinet Secretary Kihara had warned earlier in the Asian session, Thursday, that Tokyo stands ready to act on excessive yen volatility, though the 16-hour or whatever gap between his remarks and the sell-off makes a direct causal link implausibleThe US Dollar Index fell 0.80% on the day to near 97.70, with dollar weakness tied to easing geopolitical risk premium following the US-Iran ceasefire deal, providing a structural tailwind for yen strengthNo official confirmation of Ministry of Finance intervention has been issued; the cause of the reversal remains unconfirmedUSD/JPY staged one of the more intriguing reversals of the week on Thursday, spiking to 161.80 in the US afternoon before a sharp single pulse sell-off pulled the pair back toward 161.35, with no clean explanation emerging for what triggered it.The obvious candidate, Japanese Ministry of Finance intervention, cannot be ruled out but sits awkwardly with the timeline. Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara had delivered a clear warning during the Asian session, stating that Tokyo stood ready to respond to excessive FX volatility at any time. The language was firm and the market noted it. But that was roughly 16 hours before the US afternoon reversal, a gap that stretches the causal link beyond comfort.The technical case is more straightforward. The pair had run hard through the session, accumulating a move of around 120 pips from the day's lows. At 161.80, with MoF rhetoric still providing a psychological ceiling and the broader dollar under pressure from the unwinding of geopolitical risk premium tied to the US-Iran ceasefire deal, the conditions for a stop-driven reversal were in place. A softening DXY, down 0.80% on the day to near 97.70, did the rest on the dollar leg.What is harder to dismiss is the character of the move itself. A drop of that magnitude looks less like organic profit-taking and more like deliberate size hitting the market at a specific level. Whether that was the MoF acting quietly, a large fund covering a long position, or something else entirely, the market does not yet have a clean answer. Sometimes the most honest thing a price chart tells you is that it knows something you do not.Japan Ministry of Finance head Katayama. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A $60-65 target from a major bank carries weight at a moment when crude has already hit its lowest point since the conflict began, and the directional call will pressure any remaining long positions built on sustained Hormuz disruption. The key phrase in Citi's framing is "re-anchor to weaker fundamentals," which implies the war premium was masking a supply picture that was already soft before February. The timeline, six to twelve months, gives the market room to fade gradually rather than gap lower, but the destination is unambiguous.Earlier:Iraq flags gradual oil return as Hormuz reopens, but risks linger--- Citi forecasts oil will trend to $60-65/bbl by Q1 2027 as the US-Iran deal normalises Hormuz flows and re-anchors prices to weaker pre-war fundamentals. Summary:Citi's base case is sustained normalisation of Hormuz flows under the US-Iran memorandum of understandingThe bank forecasts oil trending to $60-65/bbl by Q1 2027 over a 6-12 month horizonRestoring strait flows will, over time, re-anchor prices to fundamentals that were already weak before the conflictCrude fell Thursday to its lowest level since the February 28 outbreak of warCitigroup has put a floor on where oil is headed: $60-65 a barrel by the first quarter of next year, as the supply locked behind the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Iran conflict finds its way back to market.The bank's base case rests on the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran holding well enough to allow shipping flows through the strait to normalise. That is not a certainty, as Thursday's diplomatic picture made clear, but it is Citi's central scenario. The bank's language on the destination is pointed: restored flows will re-anchor prices to fundamentals that were already pointing lower before the war began in late February. The conflict's principal market effect was to obscure that underlying weakness behind a geopolitical premium. As that premium deflates, so does the price.The trajectory implied is a grind rather than a collapse. Six to twelve months gives the market time to absorb returning barrels without a disorderly unwind, and the Q1 2027 target sits roughly 10-15 dollars below current levels depending on the session. For producers, hedgers, and any fund still running long crude on a disruption thesis, the Citi note is a signal that the trade has turned. The strait is open. The clock is running. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil's price retreat reflects the market's initial relief at Hormuz reopening, but the path back to normal export volumes is likely to be slower than spot prices imply. Iraq's explicit caveat that crude export recovery depends on smooth transit conditions is a material qualifier: any friction at the strait during the 60-day negotiating window would sharply reverse the supply-recovery thesis. The Israel-Lebanon front remains the clearest near-term risk premium, with fresh airstrikes on Thursday casting doubt over whether the broader ceasefire framework can hold long enough for export normalisation to become established.---Hormuz reopened under a US-Iran interim deal, oil fell, but Iraq's oil minister said export recovery will be gradual and conditional on smooth strait transit. Oil tankers transited Hormuz and the US lifted its Iran blockade as an interim deal took effect, with analysts flagging possible export normalisation over coming monthsIraq's oil minister said fields are ready to resume production but that the return to previous output levels will be gradual and contingent on unimpeded Hormuz passageKhamenei characterised Trump's signing of the deal as an act of desperation and warned that nuclear talks would be difficult, with Iran retaining permit authority over strait traffic during the 60-day negotiating periodIsraeli airstrikes in Lebanon continued despite the deal's call for permanent termination of that conflict, with Vance warning Israel against alienating its sole remaining major allyOil prices fell near their lowest point since the conflict began as tankers moved through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday following the entry into force of a US-Iran interim agreement, but the market's relief may be running ahead of the physical reality.Iraq's oil minister provided the clearest near-term framework for what supply recovery actually looks like: gradual, sequenced, and explicitly conditional on the strait remaining open without disruption. Fields are ready, Baghdad said, but exports will rebuild incrementally, not snap back. That caveat matters for a market that has priced in a relatively clean resolution.The broader diplomatic picture is considerably messier. Iran's supreme leader framed the agreement as a product of American weakness rather than negotiated compromise, and signalled that the 60-day nuclear talks would be contentious. Tehran also made clear it intends to manage strait traffic through a permit system during that window, preserving operational leverage even as it forgoes fees. Meanwhile Israel, excluded from the negotiations, pressed on with strikes in Lebanon and published an expanded occupation map, drawing an unusually sharp public rebuke from Vice President Vance. The deal's call for Lebanon's territorial integrity sits awkwardly alongside Israel's stated intentions.The supply recovery story is real, but it has a 60-day clock, an unresolved nuclear file, and an active second front. Traders pricing a straight line back to pre-conflict export volumes may find the geometry is more complicated than that. ---Focus on the World Cup, I reckon; on the games, the players, the Messi rather than the mess above. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Hong Kong and mainland China are out today. Markets are closed.This will thin out trading interest and liquidity during the Asian time zone. Japan, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand are all open, as is South Korea. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fed Chair Warsh held rates at 3.5-3.75%, stripped cut-bias language from a shorter policy statement, skipped the dot plot, and announced five task forces to overhaul Fed operations including communications. Warsh said less and meant more, and markets are only beginning to price the difference. Summary:The Warsh communication style, whether deliberate brevity or Greenspan-era deliberate opacity, may serve the same purpose: preserving Fed optionality by keeping markets guessingForward guidance built on constant explanation has failed its most important test, with US inflation running at 4.2% and the 2% target unmet for five yearsA quieter Fed has historical precedent, from Volcker's action-over-words approach to the era when rate decisions were not even announcedThe real signal from Warsh's debut was not silence but compression: a hard, unambiguous commitment to 2% inflation that forecloses interpretation rather than inviting it---Kevin Warsh's debut at the Federal Reserve podium on Wednesday lasted roughly 43 minutes and, by design, communicated remarkably little. That, it turns out, may be precisely the point.The pundit class has largely received his performance as alarming. Markets accustomed to parsing every syllable from the Fed chair's mouth, calibrating rate expectations to verbal nuance and interpreting the length of a pause as a policy signal, are understandably disoriented. But there is a serious counter-argument that the consensus has been too quick to dismiss, and it has historical company.Alan Greenspan built an entire era of monetary authority on the practice of saying a great deal while meaning almost none of it. His famous formulation, that if you understood what he said he must have misspoken ("If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said."), was not self-deprecating wit. It was a governing philosophy. Greenspan communicated constantly but in language so layered with qualification and conditional syntax that markets were perpetually uncertain which direction to run. That ambiguity was the tool. It preserved optionality, prevented front-running, and kept the Fed's hand unreadable at precisely the moments when readability would have been most costly.Warsh's curtness is a different instrument aimed at a similar destination. Where Greenspan obscured through density, Warsh obscures through brevity. In several exchanges at Wednesday's press conference he said simply that he had nothing more to offer than the statement itself, and that the committee had already done better than he could. The effect is the same: markets cannot trade the chair's words because there are not enough of them to trade. Whether by elaboration or by silence, the Fed retains the initiative.The more pointed historical parallel, though, is Volcker. He did not guide markets forward. He acted, and the actions spoke. The argument for saying less has a serious intellectual lineage that predates the entire forward guidance superstructure. The pre-1994 Fed (Greenspan was appointed in August 1987, served as Chair until January 2006) did not even announce rate decisions, leaving markets to infer policy from the mechanics of open market operations. Saying less preserved optionality and prevented markets from front-running policy in ways that blunted its effect. That argument did not disappear simply because Bernanke found it useful to talk more.The entire architecture of modern Fed communication, the dot plot, the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, the elaborately choreographed press conference, was built on a premise that has proven fragile: that central bank credibility is best maintained by explaining yourself constantly. The evidence of the past five+ years suggests otherwise. The Fed talked its way through an inflationary surge, repeatedly signalling patience while core PCE climbed well above target and stayed there. Consumer prices are still running at 4.2% annually. The 2% target has not been met in half a decade. That is not a record that vindicates the communication-heavy approach.There is also a deeper point about institutional authority. A central bank that continuously explains what it will do, and then revises those explanations when circumstances shift, trains markets to trade the revisions rather than the underlying economic reality. Warsh's refusal to submit his own dots is, in this reading, not a failure of transparency but a refusal to participate in a feedback loop that had become self-defeating.What Warsh did say on Wednesday was unambiguous precisely because it was so compressed. The Fed's commitment to 2% inflation was strong, unanimous and non-negotiable. The target was not under review and would not be until it had actually been achieved. That kind of language carries more genuine forward signal than a dot plot ever did, because it forecloses the interpretive game entirely. The five task forces announced to overhaul Fed operations, including a dedicated communications review, suggest this is architecture, not instinct.The premise that more Fed communication is always better has had its test run. The results are on the CPI tape. --- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Russell 2000 rises by 2.12% and NASDAQ by 1.91% to lead stocks higherTrump: US is committed to PEACEIran supreme leader responds to US MOU with cautionBitcoin price action is spelling T-R-O-U-B-L-E for the buyersUS list blockade of maritime traffic entering and exiting the Straits of HormuzKey Points from the MOU between the US and Iran.Major European indices close mixed with a bigger tilt to the upsideVP Vance: We will manage flare-ups through diplomacy.Trump: Iran not a threat. Oil lower. Stocks higher. Prices dropping.Bloomberg reports that Kuwait is boosting oil output. Crude oil tests key 200 day MAUS June Philly Fed business index 10.3 versus 10.0 estimateUS initial jobless claims 226K vs 225K estimate. Continuing Claims 1.810M vs 1.795M estCanada May PPI +1.2% m/m vs +1.8% expectedECBs Lane: Hikes aim to contain spread of energy shockinvestingLive European FX news wrap: SNB and BoE steady; US dollar extends gainsThe USD continued its run to the upside after the more hawkish Fed yesterday. The gains in the greenback were led by gains versus the GBP (+0.68%), the CHF (+0.56%) and the JPY (+0.47%).The BOE and the SNB both kept rates unchanged. For the Bank of England, although the skew is toward higher rates, the central bank seems to be on hold for the foreseeable future as risks of slower growth balances things out a bit versus inflation. For the SNB, they indicated that intervention is not out of the question against the strong CHF. The USDJPY started to step higher after breaking above the 2026 high at 160.717 and squeezed higher as the price continued away from the 160.00 level and move to and through 161.00 instead. Anxiety about intervention reared its ugly head once the price extended up to 161.81 just about 11 or 12 pips short of the highest level going back to 2024. The price quickly move down to a low of 160.887 but then bounced back higher and is trading near 161.40 heading into the end of day. Traders can expect more anxiety going forward, but the buyers are still more in control as long at the old high for the year at 160.717 holds support. Move below it and staying below is now needed to give the sellers some control from a technical perspective back. US stocks after falling yesterday, recovered nicely today help by the chip stocks. The trading week for stocks ends today due to the Juneteenth holiday tomorrow. For the week, the major indices closed higher:Dow industrial average +0.14%.S&P index +1.08%NASDAQ index +1.91%Russell 2000 + 2.12%The US debt market will also be closed tomorrow. Yields in the short end edged higher today, while the yields in the longer end fell as the yield flattening continues. 2 year yield 4.1809%, +1.8 basis points5 year 4.234%, +5.2 basis points10 year 4.457%, -5.8 basis points30 year 4.899%, -2.7 basis pointsFor the week, the2 year yield is up around 10.0 basis points. 10 year yield is down -2.6 basis points. Fundamentally:US initial jobless claims came in as expected at 226K vs 225K estimatePhilly Fed regional index was also near expectation at 10.3 vs 10.0 estimate. . The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding was released/leaked. It showed a 14-point framework designed to end hostilities, reopen trade and energy flows, and provide a path toward a broader peace and nuclear agreement. The deal calls for an immediate halt to military operations, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with safe commercial passage, and the removal of the U.S. naval blockade. Both sides have agreed to negotiate a final agreement within 60 days. Iran reaffirmed that it will not develop nuclear weapons and will work with international inspectors on its nuclear program, while the U.S. pledged sanctions relief, access to frozen Iranian assets, and support for a reconstruction and economic development package worth at least $300 billion. The agreement also allows Iranian oil exports to resume, establishes a monitoring mechanism for compliance, and envisions a final deal that would be backed by a binding U.N. Security Council resolution. Markets have viewed the agreement as a major de-escalation event, helping ease concerns over oil supply disruptions and broader regional instability This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major US he indices rebounded from yesterday's post Fed declines. The gains were led by the small-cap Russell 2000 which rose by 2.12%. The NASDAQ index rose by 1.91% and the S&P index rose by 1.08%. The Dow was the laggard with a modest rise of 0.14%. US stock exchanges will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Juneteenth holiday. The bond market and banks will also be closed.The gainers list is being led by semiconductors and AI-related technology stocks, with investors continuing to favor companies tied to memory chips, AI infrastructure, and data center spending.Top GainersSanDisk (SNDK): +11.42% to 2,182.45 Corning (GLW): +11.16% to 194.97 Intel (INTC): +10.64% to 133.99 Super Micro Computer (SMCI): +10.33% to 30.65 Semiconductor & AI WinnersMicron (MU): +8.70% to 1,133.99 Marvell (MRVL): +7.27% to 310.58 Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): +6.96% to 462.22 Texas Instruments (TXN): +6.84% to 322.52 Ambarella (AMBA): +6.21% to 69.97 Qualcomm (QCOM): +6.17% to 226.11 Other Notable MoversRoblox (RBLX): +7.28% to 51.52, showing strength in the consumer technology and gaming space. Teladoc (TDOC): +6.32% to 8.07, extending a rebound in digital healthcare shares. Theme of the DayThe rally is heavily concentrated in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and technology hardware, with 8 of the 12 names on the list directly tied to chip production, chip equipment, networking, memory, or AI servers. The strong gains in Intel, Micron, Marvell, TSMC, Qualcomm, and Super Micro Computer suggest investors are rotating back into the AI and semiconductor trade after recent consolidation.For the trading week, all the indices closed in positive territoryDow industrial average +0.14%. S&P index +1.08%NASDAQ index +1.91%Russell 2000 + 2.12% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The yen continues to struggle despite the Bank of Japan rate hike this week:The USDJPY is squeezing toward 2024 highs.Data from NZ kick off the calendar, May CPI from Japan follows later. Headline and core measures have remained below the BoJ 2% target for four consecutive months.BOJ minutes, April meeting, not this week's, follows.Note, HK and China are on holidays today, which'll thin out interest and liquidity somewhat. US is out Friday too, of course. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD has pushed to a new session low and, in the process, moved back into a key swing area between 1.14419 and 1.14587. The pair recently traded down to 1.1452, placing the price squarely within that support zone.If sellers can force a break below the swing area, the next target comes in at the 2026 low from March 16 at 1.14102. A move beneath that level would put the focus on the natural support at 1.1400. Breaking below both levels would leave the EURUSD trading at its lowest level since June 2025.That said, when price tests an important support zone, buyers often look to lean against the area with risk defined by a stop below support. For now, however, sellers remain in control after successfully pushing the pair into this swing area on two separate occasions today.On the topside, resistance does not become significant until the 1.1500 level. Until buyers can reclaim that area, the near-term bias remains tilted to the downside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY is getting squeezed higher, with the pair climbing to a new cycle high of 161.76. While that is the highest level since 2024, it is now closing in on the 2024 high at 161.919. A move above that level would put the pair at its highest level since 1986.The rally is increasingly taking on the characteristics of a short squeeze. Recall that in late April and early May, intervention fears sparked a sharp decline from 160.717 to a low near 155.017, as traders worried Japanese officials would step in aggressively to support the yen. Since then, the pair has steadily recovered, but traders remained cautious about pushing above the 2026 highs given the lingering threat of intervention.That caution disappeared today.The break to new highs has accelerated the upside momentum as short positions are being forced to reassess the long-held belief that Japanese authorities would not tolerate USDJPY trading above 160.00 for an extended period. While the risk of intervention remains and officials could still attempt to push the pair lower, the market is now nearly 200 pips above 160.00. At some point, traders fighting the trend have to decide whether it is worth staying in the trade and not screaming "Uncle". "Basta", "Enough", "Get me OUT".For many shorts, that moment may be arriving quickly. The market is forcing them to ask a simple question: How much longer do you want to fight a trend that keeps making new highs? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump on TruthSocial posts:Trumps "reply" to the Supreme Leaders comments are controlled. He seems to also be talking to Isreal to not muck things up. The Supreme leader was a more confrontational and negative, but his audience requires that he remain confrontational.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Iran Supreme Leader responding to the MOU said:He had a different view regarding the MOU with the U.S., but due to commitment to the Iranian president and other members of the Supreme National Security Council, he issued permission. Future in-person negotiations that are going to take place do not mean accepting the enemy's point of view. If the American side wants to be too demanding, Iran will not accept it. He gave permission to the MOU after the Iranian president and other officials assured him they would accept responsibility for safeguarding the rights of the Iranian nation and the resistance front. It was the American president who, out of desperation, used all kinds of leverage to bring the MOU about. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin price action is spelling T-R-O-U-B-L-E for buyers.While Bitcoin often benefits from a risk-on backdrop, recent price action has failed to confirm the improved sentiment. Despite the apparent end of the conflict and a rally in equities, Bitcoin's rebound from the June 5 low at $59,104 stalled at $67,150, falling short of the 38.2% retracement level at $68,168 of the decline from the May 6 high. That retracement represented the minimum hurdle buyers needed to clear to begin shifting control away from sellers.Instead, the rally fizzled and the technical picture deteriorated. The price broke back below the 100-hour moving average at $65,322, then the 200-hour moving average at $64,116, and finally below a key trendline currently near $63,758. The trendline break accelerated downside momentum as buyers turned into sellers (see chart above and the video).Bitcoin has since fallen to $62,236, putting the focus back on the June lows. As long as the price remains below the broken trendline and the 200-hour moving average, the near-term bias favors the sellers. A move back above the 200-hour moving average would ease the bearish pressure and shift the outlook toward neutral.On the downside, the key level to watch remains the June 5 low at $59,104. A break below that level would strengthen the sellers' grip and increase the risk of a deeper decline. For now, the word isT-R-O-U-B-L-E for buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

On Thursday, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Gulf. All U.S. military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased. Naval ships will remain in the region to help ensure compliance with the U.S.-Iran agreement. Post Summary:The latest developments confirms the MOU de-escalation in maritime tensions between the United States and Iran. U.S. forces have ended all blockade enforcement operations and lifted restrictions on maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, allowing commercial shipping to resume normal transit. While naval assets will remain deployed in the region, their role has shifted from enforcement to monitoring, with the objective of ensuring both sides adhere to the terms of the agreement. The move is being viewed as a confidence-building step that could reduce risks to Gulf shipping lanes and support broader regional stability. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.