FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar weakened across the board earlier this week as oil prices fell following G7 discussion about emergency oil reserves release. The move accelerated after Trump told CBS that “the war could be over soon.” Traders began unwinding some of their positions, as expectations of a quick resolution led markets to dial back hawkish interest-rate bets, putting pressure on the greenback.However, the trend reversed after reports that US intelligence had detected signs Iran might be deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing markets back into risk-off mode. Oil prices started rising again, and hawkish rate expectations quickly returned.Yesterday, Trump told Axios that there is practically nothing left to target in Iran and that the war will end soon. Unfortunately, markets no longer seem to be buying the “war ending soon” narrative. His comments were largely ignored, as traders now want to see a clear and definitive end to the conflict. Until that happens, the US dollar is likely to remain supported.GBP:On the GBP side, traders have erased all expectations of rate cuts and are now pricing in around a 40% chance of a rate hike by year-end. A similar shift has taken place across several other central banks, as higher oil prices have led markets to anticipate stronger inflation in the coming months and less room for policymakers to ease rates.On the data front, there hasn’t been much to drive markets in the meantime. Tomorrow we’ll get the UK’s monthly GDP report, but it will likely be ignored since all the pre-war data is old news.GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD rejected the major downward trendline and started falling again as US dollar bids returned. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 1.36 handle next. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline that could act as support. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a break above the major downward trendline and target new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the upward trendline to increase the bearish bets into new lows.GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to start targeting a break above the major downward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Job Openings data. As a reminder, the market focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war, so the data might not matter much. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It's another day but it will be the same old story in markets as it has been since last week. Every inch of the broader market mood is fixated on the Middle East as the energy disruption continues to drag on. Despite whatever safety assurance or what Trump says about the war being won, the fact remains that the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure.And unless that changes, oil prices will stay underpinned and even more so the longer the status quo extends. In turn, that will continue to have an impact on broader market sentiment. Be it from major currencies, to stocks, to bonds, to precious metals. It's all connected at the moment with their respective fates tied to the movement in oil prices.US president Trump may claim that Iran has been defeated, or at least incapacitated, and that victory draws near. However, the fact remains that no commercial vessel is able to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz still. That as Iran somehow continues to maintain its presence around that part of the region in striking down anything and everything that moves there.As things stand, the speculation is that the only ones brave enough to transit are "shadow fleets" with ties to Iran or certain sanctioned entities. These will be ones operating with AIS transponders turned off and are "safe" due to carrying Iranian cargo.Besides that, there is almost no actual vessels willing to take the risk to cross the strait currently. Kpler data has signaled that transit across the strait is basically non-existent now. Meanwhile, AIS data might show ships crossing but that number is relatively low (1-2 per day) and even then those vessels are likely ones with ties to Iran.If you're an independent vessel, it makes no sense to risk the situation. And that is where we are at now.In essence, actions speak louder than words. It's always the case with any war. And until the energy disruption situation improves, the danger is that oil prices will slowly return back to the highs in the days/weeks ahead. Just be reminded that with each passing day, the risk of that grows even greater. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The report says that the Chinese government has effectively banned refined fuel exports for the month of March "with immediate effect". That as Beijing has ordered refiners to stop such exports for the month. All of this of course is to manage the situation back home, amid fears of domestic fuel shortages due to the situation in the Middle East.As a reminder, the biggest losers from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz are Asian countries. To be more specific, Asian countries that heavily rely on energy imports. Japan is one of them in that category, but also China.The ban above is said to be issued by the National Development & Reform Commission (NDRC). And it is said to also cover shipments of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel.Despite the safety that Trump claims over passage via the Strait of Hormuz, the situation on the ground is far from being safe. As things stand, no commercial vessels are willing to risk crossing the strait amid reports of more attacks on tankers in the past 24 hours.It is speculated that the only ones brave enough to transit are "shadow fleets" with ties to Iran or certain sanctioned entities. These will be ones operating with AIS transponders turned off and are "safe" due to carrying Iranian cargo.Otherwise, Kpler and AIS data shows that there is likely less than 10 vessels that have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last five days. That is a far cry from the normally 120 to 140 vessels transiting across that passage way on any normal day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Container ship hit by projectile near UAE port of Jebel AliAustralia allows higher sulphur fuel imports to protect supply securityDrone strikes hit Oman energy facility, vessels evacuate Mina Al Fahal terminalFitch warns rising local government debt could narrow China’s fiscal headroomReuters says that Global shipper CMA CGM resumes bookings from Gulf portsBoJ’s Ueda warns weak yen could amplify inflation as oil prices riseCBA expects RBA to hike rates in March and May as inflation risks risePBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8959 (vs. estimate at 6.8853)ANZ joins banks expecting March 17 RBA rate hike as oil shock lifts inflation risksOracle layoffs could reach 45000 as AI replace database, engineering roles. Job loss floodUK housing market cools as RICS price gauge falls to -12Australian inflation expectations surging higher still: 5.2% (vs. 5% prior)Private credit fears grow as Morgan Stanley limits redemptions and JPMorgan cuts leverageUS launches Section 301 tariff probe targeting China, EU, Mexico, Japan and othersUS to release 172m barrels from SPR over 3 mths as US intelligence says Iran regime stableOil price rocketing higher as attacks on tankers by Iran escalate. US stocks dropping.Oil price leaps higher on news of 2 tankers attacked in the GulfReports of tanker attack in southern IraqTrump weighs emergency powers to restart California offshore oil productionG7 explores ship escorts in Gulf as Middle East war threatens energy supply routesinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 11 Mar: Yields climb despite CPI coming in line.Oil upStocks finish mixed as energy surges and yields riseEU warns that the US war on Iran could push EU inflation above 3%At a glance:Brent crude oil surged above $100 as Iran intensified attacks on shipping across the Gulf.Three tankers carrying Iraqi crude were reportedly struck by Iranian explosive boats off Basra and caught fire.Drone strikes in Oman forced evacuations at the Mina Al Fahal export terminal (~1m bpd capacity).The IEA announced a record 400m-barrel strategic oil release, with the U.S. contributing 172m barrels.Despite the intervention, supply disruptions and shipping risks pushed crude prices higher.Equities fell as rising oil lifted global inflation and interest rate expectations. Japan's Nikkei is down more than 2%.U.S. Fed funds futures now price only about 26bp of rate cuts for 2026.U.S. intelligence says Iran’s leadership remains stable despite weeks of strikes.Oil markets dominated the session as Iran stepped up attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure across the Gulf, pushing crude prices back above the $100-per-barrel mark and heightening fears of a major supply disruption.Brent crude surged after reports that multiple tankers had been struck in Iraqi waters and that energy infrastructure in Oman had been hit by drone attacks. The escalation added to mounting security risks across one of the world’s most critical oil shipping corridors.In one of the most dramatic incidents overnight, three oil tankers carrying Iraqi crude were reportedly struck by explosive-laden Iranian speed boats near Basra. The vessels were said to have caught fire and were reportedly leaking burning oil into surrounding waters. Iraqi security officials said the attacks occurred in territorial waters and prompted a halt to operations at nearby oil ports.The attacks came as Iran continued to target merchant vessels across Gulf shipping lanes, including in waters around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces earlier warned that oil prices could surge toward $200 per barrel as the conflict escalates.Markets had initially hoped that coordinated action by major economies might help stabilize prices. The International Energy Agency announced plans to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves in what would be the largest coordinated emergency release in history. The United States said it will contribute 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve beginning next week, with deliveries expected to take roughly 120 days.However, the scale of supply disruptions and growing shipping risks appear to be overwhelming the stabilizing effect of the reserve release for now.Energy infrastructure in Oman also came under pressure. Drone strikes triggered large fires at the Mina petroleum facility near the Port of Salalah, while authorities evacuated vessels from the nearby Mina Al Fahal oil export terminal as a precaution. Mina Al Fahal handles roughly one million barrels per day of Omani crude exports and is one of the few regional export hubs located outside the Strait of Hormuz.Financial markets reacted to the renewed supply shock. Equities declined as the surge in oil prices raised concerns about inflation and global borrowing costs.In rates markets, U.S. Fed funds futures extended their slide, with traders now pricing only around 26 basis points of interest rate cuts for this year.Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Iran’s leadership remains firmly in control despite nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes, indicating the conflict could continue for longer than markets initially expected.One of the epic fires on a hit tanker in Iraqi waters. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A container ship near the UAE was hit by an unidentified projectile causing a small fire, adding to rising maritime security incidents in Gulf shipping lanes.Summary:A container ship was struck by an unknown projectile 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali in the UAE.The strike caused a small onboard fire.All crew members are safe, according to UKMTO.No environmental damage has been reported.The incident occurred near a major regional shipping hub.Maritime security risks have increased across Gulf shipping lanes amid regional tensions.A container ship operating near the United Arab Emirates was struck by an unidentified projectile late Wednesday, causing a small fire onboard but no reported injuries to crew members, according to a maritime security alert.The incident occurred roughly 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali, one of the region’s busiest ports and a major logistics hub in the Gulf. The report was issued by United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which monitors shipping security in Middle Eastern waters.According to the alert, the vessel’s master reported that the ship had been hit by an unknown projectile. The impact caused a minor fire on board the container vessel, though the blaze was quickly brought under control.UKMTO said all crew members are safe and no environmental damage has been reported. Authorities are continuing to monitor the situation while the vessel assesses the extent of the damage.The incident comes amid heightened security concerns across the Gulf region following a series of attacks targeting commercial vessels and energy infrastructure. Maritime security agencies have warned that shipping lanes in the region remain vulnerable as geopolitical tensions escalate.The waters around the UAE form part of a critical corridor connecting the Persian Gulf with global shipping routes via the Strait of Hormuz. Any threat to vessels in this area raises concerns for international trade and energy markets given the heavy concentration of tanker and cargo traffic.In recent weeks, commercial vessels operating in the Gulf and surrounding waters have faced an increased risk of drone strikes, projectiles and other forms of maritime attack. Security analysts say such incidents highlight the growing exposure of global shipping to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.While the damage from the latest strike appears limited, the event adds to the mounting list of security incidents affecting maritime activity in the region.Authorities are expected to continue monitoring shipping movements closely as vessels transit the busy corridor near the UAE’s major ports. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia is temporarily allowing higher sulphur fuel imports to safeguard supply as its heavy reliance on imported petroleum leaves the country exposed to global energy disruptions.Summary:Australia is temporarily allowing higher sulphur fuel imports to ensure adequate supply.The policy allows fuel from more global refineries to enter the market during disruptions.Australia imports around 85–90% of its refined fuel.Only two domestic refineries remain operational: Geelong and Brisbane.Fuel imports travel through major shipping chokepoints including Hormuz and Malacca.Australia historically maintained relatively low fuel stockpiles.The economy is highly dependent on diesel for mining, transport and agriculture.Temporary standard waivers are used to prevent shortages and stabilise fuel prices.Australia’s decision to temporarily allow higher sulphur levels in fuel highlights the country’s structural vulnerability to global fuel supply disruptions and its heavy reliance on imported petroleum products.Authorities are allowing the temporary relaxation of fuel quality standards to ensure adequate supply after disruptions to global energy markets increased the risk of shortages. The measure allows fuel with slightly higher sulphur content than normally permitted to enter the Australian market, enabling imports from a wider range of refineries.The move reflects the reality that Australia relies overwhelmingly on imported refined fuels. Around 85–90% of petrol, diesel and jet fuel consumed domestically is sourced from overseas refineries, primarily in Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Malaysia.This reliance has grown over time as domestic refining capacity has declined. Australia once operated eight oil refineries but today only two remain operational, the Geelong refinery in Victoria and the Lytton refinery in Queensland. The closures have left the country heavily dependent on international supply chains for refined fuel.Australia’s geographic location further complicates energy security. Fuel shipments must travel long distances across the Indian Ocean or through Southeast Asian shipping routes before reaching Australian ports. These routes pass through several critical maritime chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca and key shipping lanes in the South China Sea.When geopolitical tensions or shipping disruptions threaten these corridors, fuel deliveries can be delayed or reduced. In such situations, relaxing fuel quality specifications allows Australia to access a broader range of international fuel supplies more quickly.Another challenge is the country’s historically limited fuel stockpiles. For many years Australia fell short of the International Energy Agency requirement to maintain emergency reserves equal to at least 90 days of net imports. The government has since taken steps to improve resilience by expanding domestic storage capacity and arranging for strategic crude storage in the United States.Australia’s economy is also particularly sensitive to diesel supply disruptions. Diesel is essential for sectors such as mining, freight transport, agriculture and construction, meaning shortages can quickly ripple through the broader economy.Because Australia is geographically isolated and lacks pipeline connections to neighbouring countries, virtually all petroleum products must arrive by sea. This makes the country especially exposed to global shipping disruptions.Allowing temporarily higher sulphur fuel is therefore a short-term measure designed to protect supply security and prevent price spikes while global energy markets remain volatile. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Drone strikes reportedly linked to Iran triggered fires at Oman’s Mina petroleum facility near Salalah.Authorities evacuated all vessels from the Mina Al Fahal oil export terminal as a precaution.The terminal handles roughly 1 million barrels per day of Omani crude exports.Mina Al Fahal is strategically located outside the Strait of Hormuz, providing an alternative export route.Other regional export hubs including Fujairah (UAE) and Yanbu (Saudi Arabia) remain operational.The attacks highlight rising risks to energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the Gulf region.Drone strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Oman have triggered fires at a petroleum facility linked to the Port of Salalah and forced authorities to evacuate vessels from the country’s key oil export terminal at Mina Al Fahal.According to reports, multiple large fires were still spreading across parts of the Mina petroleum facility following the attacks, which were attributed to Iranian drone strikes against the port area and nearby infrastructure on Wednesday.As a precautionary measure, Oman has ordered all vessels to leave the Mina Al Fahal oil terminal after security risks escalated in surrounding waters. Shipping sources said the evacuation notice was distributed through port agents to tanker operators in the area.Mina Al Fahal plays a crucial role in Oman’s energy exports, handling roughly one million barrels of crude oil per day. The terminal serves as a primary outlet for Omani crude shipments to global markets and is one of the few major Middle Eastern export facilities located outside the Strait of Hormuz.Its location on the Gulf of Oman provides a strategic alternative export route that bypasses the narrow shipping chokepoint at Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply typically passes.The evacuation underscores the rising risks to maritime energy infrastructure as the conflict involving Iran continues to escalate across the region. In recent weeks, several incidents involving attacks on shipping and port infrastructure have heightened concerns about supply disruptions and maritime security in the Gulf.Despite the evacuation in Oman, other regional export terminals remain operational. Shipments from the UAE’s Fujairah terminal, another facility positioned outside the Strait of Hormuz, are continuing, though some shipowners have reportedly become more cautious about calling at the port due to security concerns.Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu export terminal on the Red Sea remains fully operational, providing an additional alternative route for crude exports that avoids the Gulf’s most sensitive shipping corridors.Energy markets are closely monitoring developments at Oman’s export infrastructure given its role as a strategic outlet that bypasses Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption could amplify fears of broader supply interruptions if tensions escalate further across Gulf shipping routes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China is expected to maintain targeted fiscal support for local governments as rising debt and weak revenues tighten fiscal headroom, Fitch says.Summary:Fitch Ratings expects China to maintain targeted fiscal support for local and regional governments (LRGs).LRGs are provincial and municipal governments responsible for infrastructure spending and regional development.Weak revenue growth and rising borrowing needs are expected to increase LRG debt in 2026.The property downturn and weaker land-sale income have pressured local government finances.Higher debt growth could narrow fiscal headroom within China’s sovereign rating framework.Beijing is likely to avoid large-scale stimulus while providing selective support to prevent financial stress.China is expected to continue providing targeted fiscal support to local and regional governments as economic pressures persist, although limited fiscal space could constrain the scope for additional stimulus, according to a new assessment from Fitch Ratings.The ratings agency said Beijing is likely to maintain selective support for local and regional governments (LRGs), which are responsible for a large share of infrastructure investment and public spending across China. These entities play a critical role in implementing national policy initiatives and supporting economic activity at the provincial and municipal levels.However, Fitch warned that financial conditions for these governments are becoming more strained. Weak revenue growth and rising borrowing needs are expected to push debt levels higher in 2026, narrowing the fiscal headroom available within China’s current credit rating framework.Local and regional governments have faced persistent pressure in recent years as slowing economic growth, a prolonged property downturn and reduced land-sale revenues have weighed on their finances. Land sales have traditionally been one of the largest sources of income for local authorities, meaning the ongoing weakness in the property sector has significantly reduced fiscal flexibility.To help offset these pressures, China’s central government has increasingly relied on targeted fiscal measures and support mechanisms aimed at stabilising local government finances while avoiding a large-scale stimulus programme.Fitch said this approach reflects Beijing’s balancing act between sustaining economic growth and managing rising debt risks across the public sector. While local governments remain a key driver of infrastructure spending and regional development, their expanding debt burdens could gradually erode fiscal buffers.The agency expects debt linked to local and regional governments to continue growing in the coming years, particularly as authorities rely on borrowing to support investment and maintain economic momentum.Despite these challenges, Fitch believes the central government will likely continue offering selective assistance to prevent financial stress among local authorities from escalating into broader systemic risks.The outlook highlights the ongoing tension in China’s economic policy framework: supporting growth while containing rising leverage within the government sector. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reuters is reporting that CMA CGM has reopened container bookings from major Gulf export hubs, signalling improving conditions for regional shipping after recent disruptions. This is good news if correct. Recent attacks suggest this may be premature:Oil price rocketing higher as attacks on tankers by Iran escalate. US stocks dropping.Oil price leaps higher on news of 2 tankers attacked in the GulfSummary:CMA CGM has reopened cargo bookings from several Gulf countries.Shipments from Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now being accepted again.The reopening follows earlier disruptions linked to regional conflict and maritime security concerns.Shipping companies had temporarily restricted operations due to vessel safety risks.Gulf ports are key global trade hubs linking Asia, Europe and Africa.The move suggests improving operational conditions for regional shipping routes.Global container shipping group CMA CGM has announced the immediate reopening of cargo bookings from several Gulf countries, signalling a partial normalization of trade flows after recent disruptions linked to heightened regional tensions.The company said it has resumed accepting bookings for shipments originating from Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to destinations worldwide. The move comes after a period in which shipping activity in parts of the Gulf was constrained due to security concerns and logistical disruptions tied to the conflict involving Iran.Major shipping companies had previously taken precautionary measures, including temporarily suspending some bookings or adjusting routes, as maritime security risks increased across the region. Concerns over attacks on commercial vessels and instability around key shipping corridors had prompted carriers to reassess operations and prioritize crew and cargo safety.By reopening bookings, CMA CGM is signalling that operational conditions have stabilised sufficiently to allow the resumption of normal container shipping activity from these Gulf export hubs. The countries included in the reopening are among the region’s most important logistics and trade centers, serving as key gateways for energy products, manufactured goods and consumer imports.The Gulf plays a crucial role in global trade, with ports in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait acting as major transshipment points connecting Asia, Europe and Africa. Even temporary disruptions to shipping activity in these locations can ripple across global supply chains.Shipping companies have been closely monitoring developments in the region following a series of maritime security incidents and rising geopolitical tensions that raised fears of broader disruptions to shipping lanes.The resumption of bookings suggests shipping operators are regaining confidence that vessels can operate safely through regional waters, although risks remain elevated compared with normal conditions.For global markets, the development could help ease concerns about supply chain disruptions and freight bottlenecks. However, shipping costs and insurance premiums may remain volatile if geopolitical tensions continue to influence maritime security in the Gulf.The announcement highlights how quickly global logistics networks can respond to shifts in geopolitical risk, with shipping companies adjusting operations as security conditions evolve. Tanker attack just a few hours ago. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BoJ Governor Ueda warns currency weakness could intensify inflation risks as higher oil prices and a weaker yen threaten to fuel cost-push inflation in Japan.Summary:Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that foreign exchange movements are increasingly influencing inflation.He said the yen’s impact on prices is larger than in the past, potentially affecting inflation expectations.Brent crude has risen to around $87 from $72 before the Iran conflict, lifting import costs for Japan.The yen has weakened toward ¥158 per dollar, amplifying imported inflation.Economists warn of cost-push inflation and stagflation risks if energy prices remain elevated.Higher import costs could squeeze real wages and weaken household consumption.The BoJ may face pressure to accelerate policy normalisation to stabilise the yen.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has warned that exchange rate movements are becoming an increasingly important driver of Japan’s inflation outlook, highlighting the growing influence of the weaker yen as rising energy prices threaten to reignite cost-push inflation.Speaking in remarks on foreign exchange dynamics, Ueda said currency movements are a key factor shaping the outlook for both economic activity and prices. He noted that the impact of exchange rates on inflation appears to be larger than in the past, meaning policymakers must carefully monitor currency developments when assessing monetary policy decisions.“Foreign exchange is one important factor affecting the economy and prices,” Ueda said, adding that policymakers must remain mindful that currency swings can influence inflation expectations.The comments come as Japan faces renewed inflation pressure following the outbreak of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran in late February. Global energy markets have tightened sharply since the conflict began, pushing Brent crude prices higher. For Japan, which relies heavily on imported energy, the rise in oil prices threatens to feed directly into higher import costs.At the same time, the yen has weakened further, falling toward the ¥159 per dollar area. The currency’s depreciation amplifies the inflationary impact of higher commodity prices by increasing the cost of imported fuel and raw materials.Economists warn that the combination of rising energy prices and a weaker currency could create a new wave of cost-driven inflation in Japan. While such inflation lifts headline price growth, it risks eroding household purchasing power and weighing on consumption.Analysts say the development raises the risk of a stagflation-like environment in which inflation rises while economic growth slows. Higher import costs could squeeze real wages, reducing household spending, while the traditional benefits of yen depreciation for exporters may prove weaker amid global economic uncertainty.Against this backdrop, the Bank of Japan may face increasing pressure to accelerate the normalization of its ultra-loose monetary policy to stabilise the currency and contain imported inflation.Ueda said the central bank will conduct appropriate monetary policy while carefully assessing how exchange rate movements affect the likelihood of achieving its economic and inflation forecasts.For policymakers, the challenge will be balancing the need to contain currency-driven inflation pressures with the risk that tighter policy could further slow domestic demand. ***BoJ meet next week, 18 and 19 March. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to raise rates in March and May as rising energy prices and strong domestic data keep inflation risks elevated.Earlier:ANZ joins banks expecting March 17 RBA rate hike as oil shock lifts inflation risksWestpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and MayAustralian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next weekSummary:CBA expects the RBA to raise the cash rate in March and May, taking the rate to 4.35%.The outlook has shifted due to higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict.Inflation is already above target and expected to rise further due to energy costs.The Australian economy is running above capacity, with GDP growth around 2.6%.The unemployment rate remains low at 4.1%, indicating a tight labour market.CBA expects trimmed-mean inflation around 0.9% in Q1 and 0.8% in Q2.Some domestic data have softened, including household spending and card activity.Despite the uncertainties, the bank believes the inflation outlook will drive the RBA to tighten policy.Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate at both its March and May policy meetings as policymakers respond to mounting inflation risks and a domestic economy operating above capacity.In a research note, CBA economists said the policy outlook has shifted significantly in recent weeks, largely due to the inflationary implications of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Rising energy prices linked to the war have introduced a new layer of uncertainty for the global economy while increasing the risk that inflation could move further away from the RBA’s target range.The March policy meeting now takes place in a very different environment than was expected only a few weeks ago, according to the bank. While geopolitical developments have complicated the outlook for global growth, they have simultaneously strengthened the near-term inflation pressures facing Australia.CBA argues that domestic economic conditions already point toward the need for tighter monetary policy. Inflation remains above target, the labour market continues to operate at historically tight levels, and the broader economy appears to be running beyond its sustainable capacity.Recent economic data have reinforced that assessment. Annual GDP growth of 2.6% remains above the RBA’s estimated long-term “speed limit” of roughly 2.1%, indicating demand is still exceeding the economy’s productive capacity. At the same time, the unemployment rate has held at 4.1% for two consecutive months, remaining below estimates of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU).Price pressures also remain persistent. January inflation data pointed to ongoing underlying inflation momentum, and CBA’s modelling suggests trimmed-mean inflation could reach around 0.9% in the first quarter and 0.8% in the second quarter — consistent with the RBA’s latest forecasts and above the bank’s previous expectations.Against this backdrop, CBA said recent commentary from RBA officials has reinforced the central bank’s hawkish stance. Both Governor Michele Bullock and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser have emphasised the importance of preventing inflation expectations from becoming entrenched after the sharp rise in prices in recent years.Still, the bank acknowledges that the decision facing policymakers at the March meeting is finely balanced. Global uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict presents downside risks to growth, and some domestic indicators have softened. Household spending was weaker than expected in late 2025, and CBA’s own card spending data showed a pullback in February before a modest recovery in March.Unit labour costs have also moderated somewhat and wage growth has not shown signs of reaccelerating.Nevertheless, CBA believes the balance of risks now favours action. With inflation already elevated, energy prices rising and inflation expectations showing signs of drifting higher, the bank expects the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points in both March and May, taking the policy rate to 4.35%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.Injects 24.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Expectations for an RBA rate hike on March 17 are strengthening as oil-driven inflation risks grow and major banks including ANZ join forecasts for tighter policy.Summary:RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that oil price shocks tied to the Iran conflict pose upside risks to inflation.He said there will be “genuine policy debate” at the March 17 RBA meeting.Markets now price around a 70% probability of a 25bp rate hike next week.Westpac, NAB, Citi, Deutsche Bank and ANZ now expect a March rate increase.Bank of America, UBS and Capital Economics also forecast a hike at the upcoming meeting.Westpac expects two hikes, March and May, lifting the cash rate to around 4.35%.Higher oil prices and limited spare capacity in the economy are key drivers of tightening expectations.Expectations of a near-term interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia have strengthened after fresh comments from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser and a growing wave of forecasts from major banks predicting tighter policy as soon as next week.Speaking earlier this week, Hauser warned that the recent surge in oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions involving Iran presents clear upside risks to inflation. He emphasised that the central bank’s policy response will depend on how persistent the shock proves to be, but signalled that the upcoming March 17 policy meeting could involve a “genuine policy debate”.“Our response depends on the size and persistence of the price shock,” Hauser said, highlighting the uncertainty created by rapidly evolving geopolitical developments.Despite the uncertain outlook, Hauser stressed the importance of preventing inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. Allowing inflation to remain elevated for too long, he warned, risks repeating the damaging experience of the recent inflation surge.“If we fail to act decisively enough to prevent inflation staying high or even rising and expectations of inflation disanchor… it will be bad for everyone,” he said, describing inflation as “toxic” for the broader economy.Hauser also noted that Australia’s economy continues to operate close to its capacity limits. Recent data show annual GDP growth running around 2.6%, above the central bank’s estimate of roughly 2% sustainable growth, suggesting demand may still be exceeding the economy’s underlying supply potential.Financial markets have reacted quickly to the remarks. Interest-rate futures now imply roughly a 70% probability that the RBA will raise the cash rate by 25 basis points at its March 17 meeting, a sharp shift from expectations earlier in the year when many analysts anticipated the central bank would remain on hold.Several major banks have moved to forecast a hike next week. Westpac, National Australia Bank, Citi, Deutsche Bank and now ANZ expect the RBA to raise the cash rate in March, reflecting concerns that higher oil prices could push inflation higher again.Westpac has gone further, revising its outlook to expect two rate hikes — in March and May — which would lift the cash rate to a peak of around 4.35%. The bank said policymakers may act pre-emptively to prevent inflation expectations from drifting upward even if the energy-driven shock proves temporary.Other institutions including Bank of America, UBS and Capital Economics have also shifted toward expecting a rate increase at the upcoming meeting.The rapid shift in forecasts highlights how the Middle East conflict has complicated the RBA’s policy outlook. While Australia’s status as a net energy exporter may provide some support to national income, rising global oil prices still pose a risk to domestic inflation and borrowing costs.With the March decision approaching, policymakers now face a delicate balancing act between responding to geopolitical inflation risks and ensuring monetary policy remains aligned with domestic economic conditions. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Oracle is reportedly preparing layoffs that could reach as many as 45,000 employees, above the confirmed 20,000–30,000 range.Much of the restructuring is tied to AI automation within Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.AI agents have reportedly been managing database administration tasks for several months.One internal example saw 47 database administrators replaced by three senior architects supervising automated systems.Internal metrics suggest the AI tools can detect around 94% of database issues automatically.Entire solution engineering teams that customise enterprise deployments may also be eliminated.Some implementation workflows reportedly fall from six weeks to roughly six hours using AI tools.Oracle is reportedly planning sweeping job cuts that could affect as many as 45,000 employees, far exceeding the company’s publicly confirmed reduction of 20,000 to 30,000 roles, according to people familiar with the situation.While the layoffs come amid heavy investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and cloud computing, insiders say the reductions are not solely driven by the cost of building large-scale AI data centers. Instead, much of the restructuring appears tied to the company’s increasing use of AI systems to automate technical and operational work previously performed by large engineering teams.Sources inside the company say Oracle has spent roughly eight months running internal pilot programs that deploy AI agents to manage database administration tasks within its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure environment. The automated systems are now reportedly capable of performing many routine functions once handled by database administrators, including system maintenance, performance optimisation and backup verification.One example cited by a source involved a team of 47 database administrators in Austin whose responsibilities were largely replaced by automated management tools overseen by a small group of senior architects. In that case, the work previously performed by dozens of engineers was reduced to three senior specialists supervising AI-driven processes.Internal metrics cited by employees suggest the AI systems can detect and address roughly 94% of database issues before human intervention becomes necessary. If accurate, that level of automation could significantly reduce the need for large support teams that historically maintained enterprise database environments.The restructuring is also said to extend beyond technical operations. Sources indicate that some solution engineering teams, specialists responsible for designing customised deployments for enterprise clients, are also being eliminated.According to employees familiar with the transition, new AI-driven development tools are capable of generating customised database architectures and migration plans in a matter of hours rather than weeks. Tasks that once required large implementation teams are increasingly being automated through software-driven workflows.One insider described watching a 12-person enterprise solutions team responsible for implementing systems for Fortune 500 clients learn that their roles were being eliminated almost immediately.Oracle is reportedly offering generous severance packages, with some employees receiving up to 18 months of salary along with accelerated equity vesting. However, workers say the packages reflect a broader concern that similar roles may be disappearing across the enterprise software industry as companies adopt comparable automation strategies.If confirmed, a workforce reduction approaching 45,000 employees would rank among the largest technology layoffs in recent years and signal a dramatic shift toward AI-driven operational models across the sector. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK housing demand weakened in February as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices raised fears mortgage rates could remain elevated.Summary:The RICS house price balance fell to -12 in February, weaker than January’s -10 and the -9 expected by economists.The survey indicates more respondents reporting falling prices than rising ones.New buyer enquiries dropped sharply to -26 from -15, the lowest level since December.The survey period overlapped with the start of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran.Higher energy prices have raised concerns that mortgage rates could stay elevated for longer.Near-term sales expectations slipped to -2, the weakest since November.House price expectations fell sharply to -18 from -6.Tenant demand remained steady while new landlord instructions stayed deeply negative.Britain’s housing market lost momentum in February as buyer demand weakened amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and growing concerns that mortgage rates could remain elevated due to higher energy prices.A survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed its house price balance slipped to -12 in February, down from -10 in January and weaker than economists’ expectations of -9 in a Reuters poll. The negative reading indicates that more survey respondents reported falling prices than rising ones.The deterioration in housing sentiment comes as geopolitical tensions intensified following the outbreak of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran on February 28, which pushed global energy prices higher and heightened economic uncertainty.The RICS survey, conducted between February 23 and March 9, captured the early impact of those developments on the housing market. Surveyors reported a sharp drop in new buyer enquiries, which fell to a net balance of -26 in February from -15 in January. That marked the lowest level since December and suggests prospective buyers have become more cautious.According to RICS head of market research and analytics Tarrant Parsons, the worsening geopolitical backdrop has dented confidence among buyers. Rising oil and energy prices have also raised the possibility that mortgage rates could remain higher for longer, adding further pressure to affordability in the housing market.Forward-looking indicators also softened. Near-term sales expectations slipped to a net balance of -2, the weakest reading since November, pointing to subdued transaction activity in the coming months.Expectations for house prices over the near term deteriorated sharply as well, with the net balance dropping to -18 from -6 previously. The shift suggests surveyors anticipate continued downward pressure on property values if borrowing costs remain elevated.Rental market dynamics showed little change during the period. Tenant demand remained broadly stable over the three months to February, while the supply of rental properties continued to be constrained. New landlord instructions remained deeply negative, indicating a persistent shortage of rental stock.The survey highlights the sensitivity of the UK housing market to interest rate expectations and economic uncertainty. With borrowing costs still elevated and geopolitical risks feeding into energy prices, analysts say the housing sector could face further headwinds in the months ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation for March 2025 rise to 5.2% from 5% in February. RBA looks locked and loaded:Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next weekWestpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and MayRBA meet next week: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund after redemption requests reached nearly 11% of shares outstanding.The fund returned about $169 million, or 45.8% of tender requests, due to quarterly redemption caps.Investor scrutiny is increasing across the $2 trillion private credit market.JPMorgan has marked down loans used as collateral by private credit firms, reducing their borrowing capacity.The adjustments largely affect software company loans, where AI disruption fears are rising.Higher redemptions have also appeared at funds run by BlackRock, Blackstone and Blue Owl.Banks appear to be taking precautionary steps to reduce leverage exposure in the sector.Fresh signs of strain are emerging in the fast-growing private credit market as redemption pressures mount at major funds and banks move to reduce risk exposure to the sector.Morgan Stanley has limited investor withdrawals from one of its private credit funds after redemption requests surged. In a regulatory filing, the bank said investors sought to redeem nearly 11% of shares in the North Haven Private Income Fund (PIF), significantly exceeding the fund’s quarterly withdrawal cap.The fund returned roughly $169 million, or about 45.8% of the requested redemptions, according to a letter sent to investors. As outlined in its offering documents, the fund limits withdrawals to around 5% of outstanding units per quarter to prevent forced asset sales during periods of market stress.Morgan Stanley said restricting withdrawals helps avoid liquidating assets at depressed valuations and protects long-term investor returns. The bank noted that credit fundamentals within the fund remain broadly stable, with the portfolio spanning 312 borrowers across 44 industries as of late January.Nevertheless, the episode underscores rising scrutiny of the roughly $2 trillion private credit market, which has expanded rapidly in recent years as banks retreated from direct lending after the global financial crisis.Investor concerns have intensified following several recent credit issues and questions about the durability of loan portfolios in a higher interest rate environment. Analysts say uncertainty over the pace of mergers and acquisitions, speculation about credit deterioration and falling asset yields are weighing on sentiment.In earlier news, JPMorgan Chase is reportedly reducing its exposure to the sector by marking down the value of loans held as collateral by private credit firms that borrow from the bank.The markdowns primarily affect loans to software companies, where rapid advances in artificial intelligence have raised concerns that some business models could face disruption, potentially weakening borrowers’ ability to repay debt.By lowering the valuation of these loans, JPMorgan is effectively reducing how much private credit firms can borrow against them in financing arrangements known as “back-leverage.” In some cases, firms may need to post additional collateral.The move appears to be a precautionary step rather than a response to widespread loan losses. However, it signals that large banks are increasingly wary of risks building in a market that layers leverage on top of leveraged corporate loans.Redemption pressure has also surfaced elsewhere in the sector. BlackRock recently restricted withdrawals from a flagship debt fund, while Blackstone reported elevated redemption requests at its BCRED private credit vehicle.Together, the developments suggest investors are reassessing exposure to private credit as borrowing costs remain elevated and technological disruption reshapes parts of the corporate landscape. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. has launched sweeping Section 301 probes into manufacturing overcapacity across 16 trading partners, opening the door to a new wave of tariffs.Summary:The U.S. has launched a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners over excess manufacturing capacity.Targeted economies include China, the EU, Japan, India, Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan.The probe could lead to new tariffs if unfair trade practices are confirmed.The investigation comes after courts struck down elements of Trump’s earlier tariff programme.Section 301 gives the U.S. president authority to impose trade penalties after an investigation.A second Section 301 probe into goods linked to forced labour could launch soon and may cover around 60 countries.The move signals a potential expansion of U.S. tariffs and renewed trade tensions globally.The United States has launched a new trade investigation that could pave the way for fresh tariffs on a wide range of imports, as President Donald Trump’s administration seeks alternative legal avenues after earlier tariff measures were struck down in court.U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that Washington has opened a Section 301 investigation into what it described as “structural excess capacity and production” in several manufacturing sectors across 16 major trading partners. The probe will examine whether state-backed overproduction in those economies is distorting global markets and harming American industry.The countries and jurisdictions targeted by the investigation include China, the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan and India. Officials said the inquiry could ultimately result in the imposition of new tariffs or other trade measures if the investigation concludes that unfair practices are damaging U.S. manufacturers.The move marks the latest step in the administration’s attempt to revive trade restrictions after a recent court ruling blocked elements of Trump’s earlier tariff programme. By launching a Section 301 probe, the White House is relying on a long-standing provision of U.S. trade law that allows the government to investigate and respond to practices it considers unfair or discriminatory.Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 grants the U.S. president broad authority to impose tariffs or other penalties following an investigation into trade practices that burden American commerce. The same mechanism was used during Trump’s first administration to justify tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, triggering a prolonged U.S.–China trade conflict.Officials indicated that the current investigation will focus on manufacturing sectors where global supply has significantly exceeded demand, leading to persistent price pressure and accusations of industrial overcapacity.The administration also signalled that additional probes are imminent. A separate Section 301 investigation targeting goods produced with forced labour is expected to be launched shortly and could cover roughly 60 countries.The rapid expansion of trade probes suggests the White House is preparing a broader tariff strategy that could significantly reshape global trade relations. If tariffs ultimately result from the investigations, they could affect supply chains across Asia, Europe and North America and heighten tensions with several major U.S. trading partners. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of a global stockpile drawdown.Separately, intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s government remains stable despite weeks of bombardment.Summary:The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.The move is part of a 400 million barrel coordinated release by the International Energy Agency.Deliveries are expected to begin next week and continue over roughly 120 days.The intervention aims to cool oil prices following supply shocks linked to the Iran conflict.Separate U.S. intelligence assessments say Iran’s government is not at risk of imminent collapse.Analysts say the clerical leadership remains cohesive despite heavy strikes and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei.Israeli officials privately acknowledge there is no certainty the war will topple Iran’s regime.The findings suggest the conflict — and its impact on energy markets — could persist longer than initially expected.The United States and its allies are moving to stabilise global oil markets as the conflict involving Iran continues to roil energy supplies, while new intelligence assessments suggest Iran’s government remains firmly in control despite weeks of military strikes.U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington will release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of a coordinated effort among members of the International Energy Agency to ease supply pressures. The broader initiative will see a combined 400 million barrels released by the 32-member IEA group.According to Wright, the U.S. portion of the emergency release will begin next week and is expected to take roughly 120 days to deliver to the market. The move follows a sharp surge in crude prices triggered by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.Officials hope the coordinated stockpile release will help cool global oil prices and reassure markets about the availability of supply as shipping security concerns grow in the Gulf and traders price in a rising geopolitical risk premium.The SPR drawdown represents one of the largest coordinated interventions in oil markets in recent years and underscores the urgency among major economies to contain the economic fallout from the conflict. -At the same time, U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s leadership structure remains intact and is not at risk of imminent collapse, according to several sources familiar with the latest reports.Multiple intelligence analyses compiled in recent days conclude the Iranian government retains control over the population and continues to function despite nearly two weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment. The findings suggest that expectations of rapid political upheaval in Tehran may be misplaced.The assessment comes after the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 during the opening phase of the strikes. Despite that unprecedented development, analysts say the clerical leadership and security apparatus appear to remain cohesive.Israeli officials have also privately acknowledged that there is no guarantee the military campaign will lead to the collapse of Iran’s ruling establishment, according to a senior official familiar with internal discussions.The intelligence picture suggests the conflict could extend longer than initially anticipated, complicating efforts by U.S. policymakers to quickly stabilise the region and contain the impact on global energy markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.