Mexico's President said she helped to broker talks between the US and Cuba that are now confirmed.Various reports said the talks have started and today Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed his government is holding talks with the Trump administration."These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences that exist between our two nations," Díaz-Canel said.Trump didn't tweet directly about talks but posted an article citing talks on Truth Social.The talks are only in the initial phase and Trump previously said they may or may not include “a friendly takeover” of the island.Díaz-Canel said today that no fuel has entered the island in three months.A report last week in USA today said the Trump admin is preparing an economic deal with Cuba that could be announced "soon", citing two sources with knowledge. It would include a relaxation on Americans ability to travel to Cuba, which is something imposed by the American side.Discussions have included an off-ramp for President Miguel Díaz-Canel, the Castro family remaining on the island and deals on ports, energy and tourism. The U.S. government has floated dropping some sanctions. That sounds a bit like the kind of diplomacy that Trump used in Venezuela, with the threat of killing leadership if talks fail. Ultimately, it will depend on how badly Cuba wants to fight. It has a small (50,000 strong) regular military but depends on guerrilla fighting should the US attack. On the US side, they would likely be hoping to spark some kind of counter-revolution that they could arm.In terms of markets, the impacts here are limited at first blush. If a conflict broke out, it could hurt tourism and cruise ships in the Caribbean and Cuba does have some resources including nickel but it's hard to see macro impacts. In the bigger macro picture, another US shooting war would further boost the case for gold and hurt the US' standing amongst allies, depending on the details. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

USDCAD extends trend-like rally toward key resistanceThe USDCAD has been trending steadily higher since midday yesterday, with the pair staging a strong, trend-like move to the upside. The rally began near 1.3575 and has extended to a session high of 1.3715 in trading today. The advance has unfolded in a clear three-leg structure, with each push higher building on the prior move.The most recent leg higher has also been the steepest, highlighting strong bullish momentum in the short term. As often happens in trending markets, the acceleration in the final leg suggests that buyers have been pressing the move aggressively, forcing short-term traders to cover positions while momentum traders join the upside push.However, the rally has now run directly into a well-defined resistance area, which could determine the next directional move for the pair.Key resistance zone between 1.3715 and 1.3724The high today near 1.3715 is technically significant because it corresponds closely with the high from last Thursday and marks the lower boundary of a swing area between 1.3715 and 1.3724.This zone has proven important repeatedly over the past several weeks. Going all the way back to January 23, multiple rallies have stalled within or near this area, forming a cluster of swing highs that traders now view as a key resistance region.Because of that history, the 1.3715–1.3724 area becomes a major bias-defining level for both buyers and sellers. If the USDCAD is going to extend its rally, the pair will need to break above this resistance zone and stay above it. A sustained move through the area would likely trigger additional upside momentum and force sellers to reassess their positions.Sellers defend resistance—for nowSo far, sellers have leaned against this resistance area on the first test. The inability to immediately push through the level gives bearish traders some confidence that the rally may be losing momentum in the short term.Importantly, this is not the first time the market has struggled here. Since January 23, there have been two prior attempts to break higher, and both lasted only a few hourly bars before the price rotated lower again. That history reinforces the idea that this zone is a difficult barrier for buyers to overcome.For sellers looking for signs that the rally may be exhausting itself, there are additional technical clues worth monitoring. These include short-term momentum shifts, potential failures above resistance, and key intraday support levels that could signal a change in control.What traders should watch nextIn the video above, I take a closer look at the technical signals that sellers may watch for as evidence that the current rally could be nearing an end. At the same time, I outline the levels that buyers must break and hold if they want to keep the upside momentum intact.For now, the 1.3715–1.3724 resistance zone remains the key battleground that will likely determine the next move in USDCAD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 6.542M revised to 6.550MJOLTs Job openings for January 6.946MM vs 6.700 M estimate.Hires 5.294M vs 5.272M prior (revised)Separations 5.105M vs 5.203M prior (revised)Quits 3.137M vs 3.225M prior (revised)Layoffs and discharges 1.631M vs 1.666M (revised)For 2025 what did the numbers do?Job openings: Annual average 7.1 million in 2025, down 571K from 2024; openings rate 4.3% vs 4.6% in 2024.Hires: 63.0 million in 2025, down 1.5 million from 2024; hires rate 3.3% (down from 3.4%).Total separations: 62.8 million, down 251K from 2024; separations rate 3.3% (unchanged).Quits: 38.0 million, down 1.3 million, accounting for 60.6% of total separations; quits rate 2.0%.Layoffs and discharges: 21.2 million, up 1.2 million, accounting for 33.8% of separations; rate 1.1%.Other separations: 3.5 million, down 224K, accounting for 5.6% of separations; rate 0.2%.Economic trends from the 2025 JOLTS dataJob openings: The decline to 7.1 million (from 7.7M in 2024) suggests the labor market is cooling and demand for workers is easing. Firms appear less aggressive in posting new jobs, consistent with slower economic momentum and tighter financial conditions.Hires: The drop in hires to 63.0 million (-1.5M YoY) indicates companies are becoming more cautious about bringing on new workers. This typically reflects moderating business expansion and a more balanced labor market after the tight conditions of the post-pandemic period.Total separations: With separations slightly lower and the rate unchanged at 3.3%, the data suggests overall labor turnover is stabilizing. Workers are moving between jobs less frequently than during the peak of the labor market boom.Quits: The decline in quits to 38.0 million (-1.3M) signals reduced worker confidence in finding better opportunities. Economically, the quits rate is often seen as a proxy for labor market strength, so the drop points to less worker bargaining power and slower wage pressure.Layoffs and discharges: The increase to 21.2 million (+1.2M) indicates some normalization in layoffs after historically low levels in prior years. While not signaling a sharp deterioration, it shows firms are becoming more willing to reduce headcount as demand moderates.Other separations: The decline to 3.5 million suggests little structural shift in retirements or other exits, reinforcing the view that most of the labor market adjustment is occurring through fewer hires and fewer voluntary quits rather than mass layoffs.What is the JOLT Job Openings Report?For background, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, provides comprehensive data on labor market dynamics by tracking job openings, hires, and separations across approximately 16,400 nonfarm establishments nationwide. Released typically on the first Tuesday of each month at 10:00 a.m. ET, the report measures unmet labor demand and became a closely watched indicator after former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen highlighted its importance in 2014. A job opening is defined as a position that is vacant on the last business day of the month, has work available, could start within 30 days, and involves active external recruiting. The survey also breaks down separations into quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, offering insights into worker confidence and employer demand. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Consumer sentiment preliminary for March 55.5 vs 55.0 estimate. Weakest cents December of last year.prior month 56.6.Current conditions 57.8 vs 56.6 prior monthExpectations 54.1 vs 56.6 prior month. Weakest since November of last year.1 year inflation expectations 3.4% vs 3.4% prior month5 year inflation expectations 3.2% vs 3.3% prior monthSurveys of Consumers Director Joanne HsuConsumer sentiment dipped about 2%, reaching its lowest reading of the year. Interviews completed prior to the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains. Gasoline prices have exerted the most immediate impact felt by consumers, though the magnitude of passthrough to other prices remains highly uncertain. A broad swath of consumers across incomes, age, and political affiliation all reported declines in expectations for their personal finances, down 7.5% nationally. Interviews for this release were collected between February 17 and March 9, with about half completed after the start of the US military conflict in Iran.This month, year-ahead inflation expectations ended six months of consecutive declines, stalling at 3.4%. The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3–3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched down to 3.2%. In 2024, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. Note that for both time horizons, interviews completed after February 28th exhibited higher inflation expectations than those completed before that date.What it is?Published monthly by the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research, the index is based on a survey of approximately 600 households. It is a widely watched leading indicator of U.S. consumer spending, as higher confidence typically correlates with increased economic activity This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There is one report floating around and it suggests that Marco Rubio reached out to Iran's leaders this week to open talks on a ceasefire. Iran didn't even answer. Then the US went through France to try to open up talks and Iran said its goals weren't achieved yet.What are the goals? A longer-term energy crisis, like $200 oil.The thinking is that Iran has prepared for this fight for generations and is still in a position to execute the strategy, daring the US navy to enter the Strait of Hormuz to try and help ships get through.There is some backing for this talk as the WSJ today reports:Arab diplomats trying to find a diplomatic path out of the war now being waged by the U.S. and Israel against Iran say Tehran, emboldened by its ability to rattle the global economy by choking oil shipments, has laid out steep preconditions for any return to talks.Iran wants firm guarantees it won't be attacked again along with reparations. These demands were relayed by the Supreme Leader yesterday but we've also now learned that he was nearly killed in a strike, with the US saying he's "disfigured".There is also the constant braggadocio from top US officials, including Haggseth that the operation is going better than expected and Trump can stop it at any time. The market is skeptical and that's why the forward curve on crude is marching higher.It's also starting to get baked into stock markets with the Fear & Greed Index now into extreme territory.That dynamic has Bank of America feeling contrarian."We suggest fading oil >$100/bbl, US$ (DXY) >100, 30-year UST yield >5%, SPX <6.6k, levels set to provoke war/oil/Fed/tariff policy response to short-circuit Main St risks"It's compelling and it's landing somewhat today with all those trades moving in their direction except the dollar.My guess is that everyone is trying to time the TACO and that's the right move but it depends on your assessment of how bad Iran truly wants to fight and what the US is willing to pledge in order to end the battle. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF moved to its highest level since January 23 earlier in the session as the U.S. dollar attracted buying interest. Since that high, the pair has retraced part of the advance, but it continues to hold a gain of about 0.19% on the day, keeping the bullish tone intact for now.Key support tested on the dipThe pullback brought the price down to an important short-term barometer level at 0.7862. This level represents the 50% midpoint of the move down from the November 2025 high at 0.81237 to the January 2026 low at 0.75915, which comes in at 0.78625.The area is also reinforced by multiple swing lows from December, making it a technically significant support zone.So far, the corrective move lower has held that support. The price dipped to 0.7861 before bouncing, and the pair is currently trading near 0.7871.What keeps buyers in control?As long as 0.7862 continues to hold as support, buyers maintain the near-term advantage and the broader push higher remains intact.However, a break below that level would shift the short-term bias back toward the sellers, with downside targets coming in near 0.7837, followed by 0.78175.Video breakdownIn the video, I walk through the key technical levels driving the USDCHF move, explain why the 0.7862 level is such an important pivot for buyers and sellers, and outline the next upside and downside targets traders should be watching going into the next trading sessions. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US equity futures are flirting with the best levels of the pre-market following a wave of economic data that points to rate cuts if/when the US or Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Notable in the pre-market news was a report saying that Trump told other world leaders earlier this week that he expected Iran to surrender shortly. We also heard from Hegseth who claimed that Iran's new supreme leader is "wounded and likely disfigured". A new report also said France and Italy opened talks with Iran in the hopes of securing safe passage for its oil.All that's leading to some optimism the war can be wrapped up shortly, though there are certainly cogent arguments that the US has overplayed its hand and the oil can be cut off for months.In terms of economic data, the numbers today likely boosted the case for a rate cut. Notably, US GDP in Q4 was cut in half to 0.7% from 1.4%. That comes after many weeks of the Atlanta Fed tracker saying it would be +5% and dozens of White House pundits touting super-strong growth based on that flawed metric (which was particularly skewed by the US government shutdown). On the inflation front, PCE numbers were entirely in-line with expectations.As a result, S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% after rising as high as 0.7% in the immediate aftermath of the data.There is no doubt that economic data is secondary at the moment but it will quickly become primary again when the war ends. At the moment, the market is sensing some possibility of a breakthrough on the weekend and is still hanging onto Trump's 4-5 week timeline, which he said had been significantly moved up. Expect another day of volatile trading today and for the market to bounce around based on war reports and tweets. WTI crude was last down $3.44 to $92.25. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.9% PCE M/M +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedPrior +0.4%Core PCE Y/Y +2.8% vs +3.1% expectedPrior +3.0%Core PCE M/M +0.4% vs +0.4% expectedPrior +0.4%Consumer spending and income for January:Personal income +0.4% vs +0.5% expectedPrior +0.3%Personal spending 0.4% vs +0.4% expected Prior +0.3%Real personal spending +0.1% vs +0.1% priorThis is a problematic report for the Federal Reserve doves. The numbers were mostly in-line with expectations but if you zoom in, that's back-to-back months of +0.4% core PCE. You don't need too many more months like that to get to 2% inflation and those numbers will stay in the y/y calculation for the next 10 months. In addition, the energy price shock is coming.For some background, the Personal Income and Outlays report, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Unlike the CPI, which uses a fixed basket, the PCE index accounts for changes in consumer behavior through a chain-weighted methodology, giving it a broader and more adaptive scope.In December 2025, the headline PCE price index rose 0.4 percent month over month, an acceleration from 0.2 percent gains in both October and November. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE climbed to 2.9 percent, up from 2.8 percent in November and continuing a gradual upward drift from the 2.5–2.7 percent range that prevailed through mid-2025. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, also rose 0.4 percent on the month and reached 3.0 percent year over year — its highest reading since February 2025 and a notable step up from the 2.8 percent pace that had held relatively steady for several months.On the spending side, nominal PCE increased 0.4 percent, but after adjusting for inflation, real spending grew just 0.1 percent, a deceleration from November. Services spending drove the gains while goods spending contracted in real terms. Personal income rose 0.3 percent, though real disposable income was essentially flat. The personal saving rate slipped to 3.6 percent, its lowest since October 2022 and down from 4.9 percent as recently as May, suggesting consumers were increasingly drawing down savings to sustain spending.The December report was released on February 20, delayed from its original late-January date due to the government shutdown. The uptick in core PCE reinforced expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady in the near term, with markets attentive to whether the reversal of the disinflationary trend would persist into 2026. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior estimate 1.4%GDP 2nd estimate 0.7% versus 1.4% preliminary. This is well below the expectations going into the 1st cut of the GDP (was expecting 3.0%).GDP Deflator 3.8% vs 3.6% est. and 3.7% preliminary Core PCE 2.7% versus 2.7% estimate and 2.7% preliminary GDP sales preliminary 0.4% versus 1.2% preliminary.Consumer spending 2.0% versus 2.4% preliminaryPCE price is preliminary 2.9% versus 2.9% preliminaryPCE X food, energy, and housing 2.8% versus 2.8% preliminary PCE services excluding energy and housing 3.6% versus 3.6% preliminaryOf note, the initial estimate for GDP growth was 3.0%, but subsequent revisions showed weaker underlying components. Government spending was reduced due to the effects of the government shutdown, contributing to the downward revision. Net exports were also revised lower, with exports accounting for the largest portion of that decline. In addition, both investment and consumer spending were adjusted lower compared to the first estimate, signaling softer demand than initially reported.Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—a key measure of underlying demand combining consumer spending and private fixed investment—rose 1.9% in Q4, revised down from the prior estimate by 0.5 percentage point.Inflation measures were little changed. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.8%, revised up slightly by 0.1 percentage point. The PCE price index rose 2.9%, unchanged from the previous estimate, while core PCE (excluding food and energy) increased 2.7%, also unchanged from the prior estimate.Details from the BEAReal GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent (0.2 percent at a quarterly rate 1) in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of 0.7 percentage point from the previous estimate, reflecting downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment.The downward revision to exports reflected a downward revision to services (led by charges for the use of intellectual property), reflecting updated data from BEA’s International Transactions Accounts.The downward revision to consumer spending reflected a downward revision to services that was partly offset by an upward revision to goods. Within services, the largest contributor to the downward revision was health care (both hospital and nursing home services as well as outpatient services), based on new fourth-quarter data from the U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Services Survey (QSS). Within goods, the upward revisions were widespread, based on revised U.S. Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey data for November and December.Within government, the revision primarily reflected a downward revision to state and local government structures investment, based on revised October and new November and December U.S. Census Bureau Value of Construction Put in Place (VPIP) data.Within investment, the revision reflected downward revisions to structures and intellectual property products. The revision to structures was led by manufacturing structures, based on revised October and new November and December U.S. Census Bureau VPIP data. The revision to intellectual property products primarily reflected a downward revision to software, based on new U.S Census Bureau QSS data.Impact of the Shutdown from the BEAThe partial federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025 weighed on Q4 growth. While the full impact cannot be precisely measured because it is embedded in broader data, the BEA estimates that reduced labor services from furloughed federal workers lowered real GDP growth by about 1.0 percentage point in the fourth quarter.Because furloughed employees ultimately received back pay, the shutdown did not affect current-dollar federal compensation, but it temporarily raised the measured price of federal employee compensation.For 2025Real GDP grew 2.1% in 2025, revised down slightly by 0.1 percentage point from the prior estimate, with growth primarily driven by increases in consumer spending and investment.On the inflation side, the price index for gross domestic purchases rose 2.6%, unchanged from the previous estimate. The PCE price index also increased 2.6%, while core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 2.8%, both unchanged from earlier estimates.Looking ahead to 2026The Q1 estimate for GDP from the Atlanta Fed GDP model estimates Q1 growth at 2.7% given released data. Having said that, the model estimated Q4 growth at 3.0% going into the 1st estimate. When it came in at 1.4% it showed a crack from prior model estimates. That may have been skewed by the government shutdown. Will the bounce back be greater than estimated in Q1? What will the war impact (higher energy costs) flow through? Time will tell, but data will be more volatile.For the BEA release, CLICK HERE This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior -24.8KUnemployment rate: 6.7% vs 6.6% expectedPrior 6.5%Full-time employment change: -108.4K vs +44.9k last monthPart-time employment change: +24.5K vs -69.7K last monthParticipation rate: 64.9% vs 65.0% last monthAverage hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 4.2% vs 3.3% last monthFull report hereThis is an awful jobs report. The Canadian dollar is selling off across the board.StatCan notes that "employment declines in February were recorded in services-producing industries (-56,000; -0.3%) and goods-producing industries (-28,000; -0.7%). The largest declines were in wholesale and retail trade (-18,000; -0.6%), and 'other services' such as personal and repair services (-14,000; -1.8%)."In February, the number of people working full-time declined by 108,000 (-0.6%), offsetting growth recorded over the previous two months. At the same time, there was little variation in the number of people working part-time in February. On a year-over-year basis, there was little change in the number of people working full-time or part-time.Despite the bleak data, traders are still pricing a rate hike from the BoC by year-end as elevated oil prices continue to drive inflation expectations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The USD made new highs vs the EUR, JPY and GBP for the year today, but is seeing some corrective action ahead of the dump of data today. At 8:30 AM ET:PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. The core is expected at 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY (vs 3.0% last month). Durable goods orders for January are expected at 1.2% versus -1.4% last month. Ex transportation is expected at 0.5% versus 1.0% last month. NonDef Cap goods are expected at 0.5% versus 0.8%.GDP 2nd revision is expected 1.4% change from the previous estimate.In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective. With the dollar moving to ahigh, and backing off, there is risk of a failure and disappointment. What would increase the disappointment for the 3 major currency pairs is the important take away from the morning video today. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump on Iran: Going to be hitting them very hard over the next weekTrump claimed Iran was "about to surrender" a day before the Supreme Leader vowed to fightHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?Why the US dollar is skyrocketing if rate hike bets increase for other central banks?Spain February final CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelimFrance February final CPI +0.9% vs +1.0% y/y prelimUK January monthly GDP +0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expectedFX option expiries for 13 March 10am New York cutWhat are the main events for today?It's been a pretty volatile session despite the lack of market-moving news or data releases. The main mover was the US dollar as the greenback extended the gains to a 4-month high amid the unwinding of the record bearish positioning reached in February. The US indices fell into new weekly lows at the start of the session but eventually recovered all the losses and are now trading positive on the day.In terms of economic data, the main highlight was the monthly UK GDP. The data came in lower than expected and weighed on the pound as weakening growth coupled with higher inflation expectations and rate hike bets is an awful recipe.Axios was out with a scoop reporting that Trump claimed Iran was "about to surrender" in a virtual G7 meeting on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the following day, the new Iran's Supreme Leader vowed to keep fighting and block the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on Iran's enemies.Lastly, during a Fox interview, Trump pledged to hit Iran very hard over the next week. This could lead to some hedging into the weekend in the American session. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

On US escorts in Strait of Hormuz: We would do it if we needed toHopefully, things are going to go very wellWe're going to see what happensTrump is clearly vowing to escalate the war further here which should keep the markets in defensive mode, especially heading into the weekend.Oil made headlines on Monday for the biggest one-day gain in six years following negative events over the weekend. The probabilities that it happens again are low, but I would still be cautious being short oil over the weekend.As of now, there's no end in sight, so being short risk or at least neutral, look like the only reasonable plays. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trump reportedly told G7 leaders during a virtual summit on Wednesday that Iran was on the verge of a total military and political collapse. According to a report by Axios, which cited three officials from G7 countries briefed on the call, Trump expressed supreme confidence in the outcome of the ongoing conflict, stating that the Iranian regime was "about to surrender."That stands in stark contrast to the real situation on the ground, where we continue to see daily strikes and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The report added that Trump’s remarks to the G7 leaders were characterized by his signature bravado and a refusal to set a specific timeline for ending the hostilities.Just a day after Trump's remarks, the new Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei called for national unity and said that the Strait of Hormuz would continue to be closed to pressure Iran’s enemies. He added that they will keep on fighting and attack US bases in the region.In a follow-up phone interview with Axios, Trump clarified his definition of the term. He noted that "unconditional surrender" doesn't necessarily mean a signed treaty; it could simply mean the point where Iran "can't fight any longer because they don't have anyone or anything to fight with."On Friday, Trump doubled down on this sentiment via Truth Social, referring to the Iranian leadership as "deranged scumbags" and stating that as the 47th President, it is his "great honour" to dismantle the regime.Despite Trump's claims that the "war could be over soon", there are no signs that point to a quick resolution as of yet. It really looks like Trump will have to make the first step here and stop the hostilities, but that might not come without higher oil prices and lower stock markets. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.1%GDP +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expectedPrior +0.7%The more detailed breakdown as per the following:Services +0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.3% (revised to +0.2%)Industrial output -0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior -0.9%Manufacturing output +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior -0.5%Construction output +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expectedPrior -0.5% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD1.1700 (EUR 2.89 bn)1.1600 (EUR 1.00 bn)1.1500 (EUR 866.36 mn)1.1400 (EUR 580.00 mn)USD/JPY160.00 (US$ 464.89 mn)159.00 (US$ 495.28 mn)158.50 (US$ 406.68 mn)GBP/USD1.3450 (GBP 299.62 mn)1.3300 (GBP 150.00 mn)USD/CHF0.7780 (US$ 299.10 mn)0.7700 (US$ 534.13 mn)USD/CAD1.3835 (US$ 470.70 mn)1.3700 (US$ 292.22 mn)1.3550 (US$ 230.00 mn)AUD/USD0.7100 (AUD 816.97 mn)0.7000 (AUD 962.99 mn)NZD/USD0.5790 (NZD 310.00 mn)EUR/GBP0.8650 (EUR 214.00 mn)0.8550 (EUR 350.00 mn)WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).Traders watch these levels because they often act as a "magnet" for the price. For example, if there's nothing happening in the market and the price is close to the expiry level, let's say 30-50 pips away, what you will usually see is the price moving into the expiry level. This happens due to the hedging activity of the market makers (banks, dealers and so on).As the price gets closer to the strike price near expiration, these market makers must aggressively buy or sell the currency to hedge their risk. This hedging activity tends to suppress volatility and keep the price "pinned" close to the strike price until the expiration time passes.RELATED ARTICLES:For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the main highlight is the monthly UK GDP report. The consensus sees a 0.2% expansion in January. The data isn't going to change anything for the BoE or the markets as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and especially on the rising oil prices. At the moment, the market doesn't expect the BoE to cut at all this year, on the contrary, there's a 50% chance of a rate hike priced in. For context, before the war started, traders were pricing more than two rate cuts.We will also get the French and Spanish inflation reports, but these will be the final readings so the market is going to ignore them. Money markets are fully pricing an ECB rate hike by July and see an 85% chance of a second rate hike by December. This is of course due to the higher energy prices.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the highlights include the Canadian Employment report, the US PCE price index, the second estimate of the US Q4 GDP, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the US Job Openings data. The Canadian employment report is expected to show 10K jobs added in February compared to -24.8K loss in January, and the Unemployment Rate to increase to 6.6% vs 6.5% in the prior month. Again, the data isn't going to change anything as expectations are being shaped by the US-Iran war and the supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The market is fully pricing a rate hike by September and an 80% chance of a second rate hike by December.The US PCE price index for January is expected at 2.9% vs 2.9% prior for the headline Y/Y figure and 3.1% vs 3.0% prior for the Core Y/Y measure. The second estimate of the US Q4 GDP is expected to match the preliminary Q/Q growth of 1.4%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is seen contracting to 54.6 vs 56.6 prior, and the US Job Openings are seen increasing to 6.750M vs 6.542M prior.This is all pre-war data and therefore old news at this point... This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Japan trade minister Akazawa:Will continue to discuss Japan’s allocation and timing of IEA-led coordinated oil reserves releaseJapanese government, together with private sector operators, will make utmost efforts in securing alternative sources of crude oil.Japanese companies are exploring alternative sources for crude oil procurement, including U.S., Central Asia, and South America This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan warns on oil price impact, signals FX action as USD/JPY nears 160ICYMI - Tesla wins UK licence to supply electricity to householdsUS, EU and Japan advance critical minerals trade deal with price floor planPoor US decision-making process underestimated Iran’s willingness to disrupt HormuzPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9007 (vs. estimate at 6.8888)FX option expiries 13 March 2026 New York cut (10:00 ET)Australia to release 762 million litres of fuel after easing stockpile rulesReuters poll: RBA seen raising cash rate to 4.10% on March 17, then 4.35% by end-2026US grants temporary license allowing sale of Russian oil cargoes already loaded (oil TACO)Five pipelines that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz. But not replace it.Asia’s refineries built for Gulf crude, making Hormuz disruption hard to replaceIran says it will not close Strait of Hormuz but asserts right to secure waterwayNew Zealand manufacturing PMI holds at 55 in February, strongest run since 2021More from Bessent, says we know Iran has not mined the Strait of HormuzIsraeli officials say Iran’s regime unlikely to fall soon despite war pressureStocks tumble as oil surges 8%, pressure spreads across sectorsIran says its not going close Strait of HormuzinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Risk rout intensifies with oil near $100At a glance:Oil gains were contained after the U.S. issued a temporary licence allowing sales of Russian oil already at sea.The Trump administration framed the move as a short-term measure to stabilise global energy markets amid the Iran conflict.Japan and other Asia-Pacific nations are preparing around $30bn in energy and critical minerals deals with U.S. companies.Australia plans to release around 20% of fuel reserves to address supply shortages.FX markets were subdued with USD/JPY drifting toward 159.50, while Asia-Pacific equities were mixed.It was a subdued session across Asia-Pacific markets, with price action largely contained as traders digested developments in energy markets and geopolitics.Oil prices remained elevated but upside momentum was somewhat capped after the United States issued a Russia-related general licence allowing the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products that were already loaded onto vessels.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration would allow countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea as a temporary measure aimed at increasing global supply and stabilising energy markets. The licence effectively provides a 30-day sanctions waiver for cargoes already in transit, giving traders and refiners time to complete transactions while avoiding further disruption to supply.The move comes as Washington attempts to contain energy market volatility triggered by the conflict involving Iran and disruptions around key shipping routes.In broader energy news, Japan and several Asia-Pacific partners are expected to unveil at least $30 billion in agreements with U.S. companies during a visit by Trump administration officials to Tokyo this weekend. The deals are expected to include purchase commitments and investment across sectors such as coal, oil, liquefied natural gas and nuclear power, as Washington promotes deeper regional cooperation on energy security and critical minerals supply chains.Meanwhile, Australia announced it will release roughly 20% of its fuel reserves, a measure aimed primarily at addressing supply shortages that have already emerged in rural and regional areas.In currency markets, activity was relatively muted. The U.S. dollar traded in narrow ranges across major pairs, with USD/JPY edging back toward the 159.50 level as traders remained alert to the risk of potential intervention should the pair approach 160 and above.Equity markets across the region were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei underperformed, while broader regional indices saw modest movement. U.S. equity index futures were slightly firmer, pointing to a steadier tone heading into the next global trading session. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s finance minister warns high oil prices are hitting markets and signals readiness to act in FX as USD/JPY nears intervention levels.Summary:Japan Finance Minister Seiko Katayama warned high oil prices are impacting financial markets.She said the government will take all possible measures to mitigate the impact.Katayama signalled readiness to act in foreign exchange markets if necessary.Japan is in close contact with U.S. authorities on FX developments.USD/JPY nearing 160, a level widely viewed as intervention risk territory.Japan’s Finance Minister Seiko Katayama warned that rising oil prices are increasingly affecting financial markets and household costs, signalling that authorities are prepared to act if the situation threatens economic stability.Speaking to reporters, Katayama said elevated crude prices are having a significant impact on global financial markets, adding that policymakers must remain vigilant as energy costs rise amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.Katayama stressed that the government will seek to mitigate the economic impact of higher oil prices as much as possible, noting that energy costs directly affect daily life through fuel, electricity and transportation expenses.“Oil prices remain high, and caution is warranted,” she said, adding that the government stands ready to take all possible measures to limit the impact on the economy.Her remarks also carried a clear signal on foreign exchange policy. Katayama said the government is prepared to take all possible steps in currency markets if necessary, highlighting the link between higher oil prices and Japan’s exchange rate.Japan imports nearly all of its energy, making the country particularly sensitive to spikes in crude prices. A weaker yen can compound those pressures by raising the cost of imported fuel and raw materials.The comments come as USD/JPY approaches the 160 level, a threshold widely viewed by traders as a potential danger zone for Japanese currency intervention. The Ministry of Finance last intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2024 when the yen weakened sharply.Katayama also said Tokyo is in close contact with U.S. authorities on foreign exchange matters, reinforcing the government’s readiness to coordinate with international partners if market conditions become disorderly. I bolded that, Japanese authorities like to wield the "US" as a big stick, hinting at coordinated intervention. Officials in Japan have repeatedly emphasised that excessive or speculative currency movements are undesirable, particularly when they threaten to amplify inflation pressures through higher import costs.With energy markets under strain and the yen weakening, the government’s latest remarks appear aimed at signalling a stronger willingness to act if volatility intensifies.While Katayama did not specify a particular exchange-rate level that would trigger intervention, the comments underline rising concern within Japanese authorities that higher oil prices and currency weakness could combine to increase pressure on the domestic economy.For markets, the message is clear: Tokyo is watching developments closely and stands ready to respond if the combination of rising energy prices and yen depreciation begins to disrupt economic stability. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.