The IEA is weighing a record oil reserve release to calm markets after the Strait of Hormuz disruption sent crude prices sharply higher.Wall Street Journal (gated) reporting.ps. G7 discussion on oil scheduled for 1400 GMT on Wednesday, March 11, 2026:G7 to discuss energy coordination as Mid East tensions lift oil prices: 1400 GMT WednesdaySummary:The International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering its largest ever oil reserve release to stabilise markets.The proposed drawdown would exceed the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The move comes after near-total disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude supplies.Oil prices surged as much as 40% since late February, briefly topping $100 per barrel before easing.IEA member states are expected to decide Wednesday whether to approve the emergency release.The International Energy Agency is considering the largest coordinated release of emergency oil reserves in its history as governments scramble to stabilise energy markets following severe disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Energy officials from the IEA’s 32 member countries discussed the proposal during an emergency meeting on Tuesday, according to officials familiar with the matter. The plan would release more crude than the 182 million barrels collectively put onto the market in 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a global energy crisis.Member states are expected to decide on the proposal on Wednesday. Under IEA procedures, the measure would proceed if no country objects, although a single dissenting member could delay implementation.The proposed release is aimed at offsetting supply disruptions stemming from the escalating conflict involving Iran, which has effectively brought tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz close to a halt. The narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to global shipping routes normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, making it one of the most critical energy choke points in the global economy.According to officials, Iranian attacks on oil tankers have sharply curtailed shipments through the strait, triggering fears of a sustained supply shock in global crude markets.Since late February, when the United States and Israel first launched strikes against Iran, oil prices have surged by as much as 40%, briefly climbing above $100 per barrel before easing back this week. Prices settled below $84, though refined fuel markets such as diesel remain under significant pressure.The IEA was originally created in 1974 following the Arab oil embargo, precisely to coordinate emergency responses to supply disruptions. Member countries are required to hold strategic reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, allowing governments to release crude during major market shocks.IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said member countries collectively hold roughly 1.2 billion barrels in government-controlled reserves, along with around 600 million barrels in mandatory commercial inventories.Historical experience with coordinated releases has produced mixed results. The twin releases following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine initially pushed prices higher as traders interpreted the move as confirmation of the severity of the supply shock, though analysts say the additional supply eventually helped stabilise markets.One of the most effective interventions occurred in 1991 during the Gulf War, when a coordinated release from strategic reserves coincided with the launch of Operation Desert Storm. Oil prices fell sharply as markets anticipated the additional supply entering the system.The current proposal reflects growing concern among governments that prolonged disruption to Gulf oil exports could trigger a renewed surge in inflation and place further strain on the global economy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan PPI for February 2026, AKA corporate goods price index (CGPI), measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services:-0.1% m/mexpected 0.2%, prior 0.2%2.0% y/yexpected 2.1%, prior 2.3%ADDED, more here:Weak yen and oil shock cloud Japan inflation outlook -- PPI recap This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Questions over whether Prime Minister Takaichi sought to influence BOJ policy have renewed debate about political pressure on Japan’s central bank.Reuters (may be gated) carried the info ICYMI. Summary:Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stance on monetary policy came under scrutiny in parliament.An opposition lawmaker questioned whether she pressed the Bank of Japan to delay further rate hikes.Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to comment on details, calling the issue sensitive.The BOJ is legally independent, but historically has faced political pressure over policy direction.The debate comes as rising oil prices and Middle East tensions complicate the BOJ’s rate outlook.Questions about the independence of the Bank of Japan resurfaced in parliament after opposition lawmakers pressed the government over whether Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had sought to influence the central bank’s interest rate decisions.The issue arose after media reports suggested Takaichi had expressed reservations about further monetary tightening during a meeting last month with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The report fuelled speculation that the prime minister, widely viewed as more dovish on monetary policy, may prefer the BOJ to move cautiously on additional rate increases.During parliamentary questioning on Tuesday, an opposition lawmaker asked Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama whether Takaichi had pressured the central bank to hold off on raising rates further.Katayama declined to expand on the matter, saying she had nothing to add beyond comments Ueda previously made to reporters following the meeting, in which the governor said the prime minister did not make any specific requests regarding monetary policy.“In general, specific monetary policy decisions fall under the jurisdiction of the BOJ. I believe it ought to be that way,” Katayama told parliament.At the same time, she acknowledged that coordination between the government and the central bank remains part of Japan’s policy framework, noting that the BOJ’s decisions are expected to remain “mutually compatible” with the government’s broader economic strategy.The exchange highlights a long-standing tension in Japan between the legal independence of the central bank and the political influence that governments have historically exerted over monetary policy.Although the BOJ operates under a mandate that guarantees its autonomy, political leaders have often signalled preferences for policy direction, particularly during periods of economic stress or currency volatility.The debate comes at a delicate moment for the BOJ’s policy outlook. In December, the central bank raised its short-term policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in roughly three decades, as policymakers concluded that Japan was approaching a sustainable return to its 2% inflation target.Governor Ueda has indicated that the BOJ stands ready to continue tightening policy if economic conditions support it, but he has avoided giving clear guidance on the timing of any further rate increases.The policy outlook has become more complicated in recent weeks as escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed global oil prices higher. For Japan, which relies heavily on imported energy, rising fuel costs risk slowing economic activity even as they add to inflationary pressure.That combination leaves the BOJ navigating a difficult policy balance, while the political debate over how quickly interest rates should rise threatens to draw greater attention to the relationship between the government and the central bank.Next meeting is next week! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned oil-driven inflation risks could intensify policy debate ahead of the next interest rate decision. Justin had his comments posted here yesterday:RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a "genuine challenge"Pricing for a March 17 RBA rate hike has jumped above 50% on the back of Hauser's remarks. 2026 dates:-More below:Summary:RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said rising oil prices pose an upside risk to inflation amid uncertainty around the Iran conflict.He stressed the policy response will depend on the size and persistence of the price shock.Hauser said there will be “genuine debate” within the RBA board over the next policy move.Recent data suggests the economy has limited spare capacity, though consumption has been softer.Hauser suggested a 5% peak inflation scenario may be overly pessimistic, while reiterating the Bank’s commitment to keeping inflation anchored.Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser signalled that policymakers may face a difficult decision at the next board meeting, warning that rising oil prices and global tensions could complicate the inflation outlook.Speaking on Tuesday, Hauser said the central bank’s response to recent energy price increases will depend heavily on how persistent the shock proves to be. With geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran adding uncertainty to energy markets, he said it remains too early to determine how lasting the impact on inflation will be.“Our response depends on the size and persistence of the price shock,” Hauser said, adding that the situation remains highly fluid.Despite that uncertainty, he indicated that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside if energy prices continue to climb. Higher oil prices could push inflation forecasts higher, although Hauser suggested that projections of a 5% peak in inflation may prove too pessimistic.The RBA’s next board meeting could therefore involve significant discussion among policymakers, with Hauser noting there will be “very genuine policy debate” over the appropriate stance of monetary policy.His remarks also highlighted the broader strength of the domestic economy. Recent data suggests Australia is operating with limited spare capacity, a factor that can sustain inflationary pressures if demand continues to outpace supply. At the same time, he acknowledged that not all economic indicators have been as strong as anticipated, particularly household consumption.Still, Hauser described the overall economic backdrop as relatively healthy.“The Australian economy in many ways is in good shape,” he said.A key theme of his remarks was the importance of maintaining credibility in the central bank’s commitment to its inflation target. Hauser warned that allowing inflation to remain elevated or expectations to drift higher would risk repeating the damaging experience of the recent inflation surge.“If we fail to act decisively enough to prevent inflation staying high or even rising and expectations of inflation disanchor, it will be bad for everyone,” he said, describing high inflation as “toxic” for the economy.He emphasised that the RBA must ensure policy settings are sufficient to return inflation to target, adding that the public should not doubt the central bank’s commitment to achieving that goal.While higher oil prices could weigh on household spending, Hauser noted that Australia’s status as a major energy exporter could offset some of the economic impact through stronger demand for energy exports.He also pointed to recent GDP data showing the economy expanded 2.6% over the past year, well above the RBA’s estimate of roughly 2% sustainable growth, suggesting activity is running above its long-term capacity. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. forces struck Iranian mine-laying vessels as Trump warned Tehran against attempts to mine the strategic Strait of Hormuz.Summary:The U.S. military said it eliminated 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.President Donald Trump warned Iran to remove any mines immediately or face military consequences.Trump said the U.S. would use advanced surveillance and strike technology to stop any vessels attempting to mine the waterway.The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, carrying roughly a fifth of global crude supply.The confrontation raises concerns about energy security and the risk of disruption to global oil markets.The United States said it destroyed multiple Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as President Donald Trump warned Tehran that any attempt to mine the strategic waterway would bring severe military consequences.U.S. Central Command said American forces “eliminated” 16 Iranian vessels believed to be capable of laying naval mines in waters near the strait on Tuesday. The Pentagon also said strikes targeted mine-laying vessels and mine storage facilities, signalling a pre-emptive effort to prevent disruption to shipping lanes.Trump had earlier said the United States had “completely destroyed” 10 inactive mine-laying vessels, though the military later reported a higher total of vessels neutralised.The U.S. action followed reports that Iran may have begun deploying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf with global shipping routes.In a post on Truth Social, Trump warned Iran to immediately remove any mines that may have been deployed.“If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY,” Trump wrote.He said failure to do so could result in military consequences “at a level never seen before,” although he did not provide specific details.Trump also said the United States was deploying surveillance and strike technology previously used against drug-trafficking vessels to prevent any ship from attempting to mine the strait.The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically important maritime choke points in the world. Roughly 20% of global oil consumption passes through the narrow shipping lane, which is used by major producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to export crude to global markets.Because of its importance to global energy flows, even limited disruptions in the strait can quickly send oil prices higher and increase volatility across financial markets.Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated sharply in recent months amid broader conflict in the Middle East, with shipping security emerging as a central concern for governments and energy markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<html> <body> <!--StartFragment-->Trump announced a major refinery project in Texas backed by India’s Reliance, describing it as a historic investment aimed at boosting U.S. energy dominance.<!--EndFragment--> </body> </html>Summary:U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new oil refinery project in Brownsville, Texas.Trump said the facility would be the first new U.S. refinery built in roughly 50 years.The project, called America First Refining, involves investment from India’s Reliance Industries.Trump described the development as a $300 billion deal, though details of the investment structure remain unclear.The refinery is expected to boost U.S. energy production, exports and regional employment, according to Trump.U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans for a major new oil refinery project in Brownsville, Texas, describing it as a historic investment aimed at strengthening American energy production and national security.In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the America First Refining project would mark the first new oil refinery built in the United States in roughly 50 years, highlighting it as a milestone for the country’s energy sector.Trump said the development would help “fuel U.S. markets, strengthen our national security, boost American energy production, deliver billions of dollars in economic impact,” and become “the cleanest refinery in the world.”The president also thanked India’s Reliance Industries, one of the world’s largest private energy companies, for its role in the project, describing the investment as a significant step in strengthening economic ties between the United States and India.Trump characterised the project as a $300 billion deal, calling it the largest in U.S. history, though it was not immediately clear whether that figure refers specifically to the refinery itself or to a broader investment framework involving energy cooperation with India.The proposed facility would be located at the Port of Brownsville in South Texas, a major logistics hub near the U.S.–Mexico border that already plays a role in energy exports and petrochemical infrastructure.The announcement comes as refining capacity has become an increasingly strategic issue for global energy markets. While the United States remains the world’s largest oil producer and a major exporter of refined fuels, relatively few new large-scale refineries have been built in recent decades due to regulatory hurdles, environmental concerns and the high capital costs associated with such projects.Reliance Industries, headquartered in India, operates one of the world’s largest refining complexes at Jamnagar in Gujarat and has long been a major player in global fuel markets. Its involvement in a U.S. refining project would represent a notable expansion of cross-border energy investment.Trump said the refinery would create thousands of jobs, boost economic activity in South Texas and expand the United States’ role as a global energy exporter. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

G7 leaders will hold emergency talks later Wednesday on energy coordination as Middle East tensions push oil prices higher.Summary:French President Emmanuel Macron will host a video call of G7 leaders on Wednesday to discuss energy market impacts from Middle East tensions.The meeting is scheduled for 1400 GMT, according to the Elysee.Leaders will consider coordinated measures to stabilise energy markets.Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suggested the G7 could tap strategic oil reserves to offset rising prices linked to the Iran conflict.The discussion comes amid concerns that regional conflict could disrupt global oil supply and push prices higher.Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations are set to hold a video call on Wednesday to discuss the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East on global energy markets and possible coordinated responses to stabilise oil prices.The Elysee Palace said French President Emmanuel Macron will host the call, scheduled for 1400 GMT, bringing together leaders from the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France.The discussion comes as global energy markets react to the risk that conflict involving Iran could disrupt oil supply flows from the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly a third of global crude production. Heightened geopolitical tensions have historically triggered spikes in oil prices, raising concerns among major economies about inflation, economic growth and energy security.Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said previously that one potential option could be the coordinated use of the G7’s strategic petroleum reserves to help dampen price pressures.“The best option is to reduce tensions, to have peace,” Carney said. “We should use the G7’s oil reserves.”Strategic oil reserves are emergency stockpiles held by governments and coordinated through mechanisms such as the International Energy Agency (IEA). These reserves have been tapped in the past during major supply disruptions, including after the 1991 Gulf War, the 2011 Libyan conflict and more recently during energy market disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.A coordinated release of reserves can temporarily boost supply and calm markets, although such measures are generally viewed as short-term tools rather than long-term solutions to structural supply shortages.The G7 discussion signals growing concern among advanced economies about the economic consequences of a sustained surge in energy prices. Higher oil prices can feed into inflation through fuel and transport costs while also weighing on consumer spending and industrial activity.For policymakers already grappling with fragile global growth and ongoing geopolitical tensions, stabilising energy markets has become an increasingly urgent priority. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

North Korea tested a cruise missile designed for naval deployment while backing Iran and condemning U.S. and Israeli military actions.Summary:North Korea conducted a strategic cruise missile test on Tuesday, according to state media KCNA.The missile was designed for deployment on a naval destroyer, highlighting Pyongyang’s expanding naval strike capability.Leader Kim Jong Un said destroyers must be equipped with supersonic weapons, signalling continued military modernisation.North Korea also voiced support for Iran’s political process to select a new supreme leader.Pyongyang condemned what it called “illegal” U.S. and Israeli military attacks against Iran.North Korea said it had conducted a strategic cruise missile test designed for use on a naval destroyer, as leader Kim Jong Un called for warships to be equipped with increasingly advanced weapons.State news agency KCNA reported that the test took place on Tuesday and formed part of Pyongyang’s ongoing efforts to modernise its naval strike capabilities. According to the report, the missile is intended for deployment aboard destroyers, suggesting North Korea is seeking to strengthen its maritime deterrence and extend its ability to strike regional targets.Kim Jong Un said the country’s naval forces must be equipped with “supersonic weapons,” underscoring his government’s push to accelerate the development of advanced missile technologies. North Korea has in recent years expanded testing of both cruise and ballistic missile systems as it works to improve survivability, precision strike capability and delivery platforms across land, sea and potentially submarine forces.Alongside the missile test announcement, North Korea issued political statements concerning Iran, signalling solidarity with Tehran amid heightened regional tensions. KCNA said Pyongyang respects the Iranian people’s right to select a new supreme leader and condemned what it described as “illegal” military attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran.The remarks highlight the longstanding geopolitical alignment between North Korea and Iran, two countries that have frequently found themselves at odds with Washington and its allies. Both governments have been subject to extensive Western sanctions related to their missile and nuclear programmes.The relationship between Pyongyang and Tehran has periodically drawn scrutiny from Western governments, which have expressed concern about possible technology sharing or military cooperation. Both states have also been associated with what former U.S. President George W. Bush once described as the “axis of evil”, a label applied in 2002 to governments accused by Washington of pursuing weapons of mass destruction and supporting activities hostile to U.S. interests.While that terminology is less commonly used today, North Korea and Iran remain central to global security debates due to their missile development programmes and strategic positions in Asia and the Middle East.The latest test comes as North Korea continues to expand its weapons capabilities despite international sanctions, while tensions in the Middle East remain elevated amid ongoing conflict involving Iran and its regional adversaries.Trump and Kim were very close during Trump's first term. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan wholesale level inflation indicator, the PPI, is due today. Expected just a loittle softer. Still, the most focus for markets will be on the war makers. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ECB President Lagarde pushed back against stagflation concerns but said elevated uncertainty prevents clear guidance on the next interest rate decision.Summary:ECB President Christine Lagarde said the eurozone economy is not in a stagflationary environment.She noted the economy has greater capacity to absorb shocks than in 2022, though uncertainty is currently higher.Lagarde reiterated the ECB’s commitment to taking necessary measures to control inflation.She said policy uncertainty remains elevated, making it difficult to give guidance on the next interest rate move.Remarks came during testimony before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON).European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the eurozone economy is not facing a stagflationary environment, while emphasising that policymakers remain cautious as uncertainty clouds the outlook for interest rates.Speaking at a hearing before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON), Lagarde said the eurozone currently has a stronger capacity to absorb economic shocks than it did during the energy crisis in 2022. However, she warned that the global economic backdrop remains highly uncertain, limiting the ECB’s ability to provide firm guidance on future policy decisions.“We have a greater capacity to absorb current shocks than in 2022, but uncertainty is greater too,” Lagarde said, noting that the ECB will continue to closely monitor incoming data and developments affecting the euro area economy.Lagarde also pushed back on concerns that the region could be entering a period of stagflation — a combination of weak growth and persistently high inflation that can complicate central bank policymaking.“We are not at all in a situation of stagflation,” she said.The ECB chief reiterated that the central bank remains committed to ensuring inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target, and that policymakers stand ready to act if price pressures threaten to remain elevated.“We will take the necessary measures to keep inflation under control,” Lagarde said.At the same time, she declined to offer explicit forward guidance on the ECB’s next interest rate decision, highlighting the unusual level of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook.“There is currently such uncertainty that I cannot say what we will do on interest rates,” she said.The remarks come at a time when financial markets are closely watching the ECB’s policy path following the aggressive tightening cycle launched in 2022 to combat the surge in inflation triggered by the post-pandemic recovery and Europe’s energy shock. While inflation across the euro area has cooled significantly from its peaks, policymakers remain cautious about declaring victory too early.Lagarde’s comments suggest the ECB is maintaining a data-dependent approach, balancing progress on inflation against ongoing risks to economic growth and external uncertainties. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The major U.S. stock indices closed the session with mixed results. The NASDAQ edged slightly higher, finishing nearly unchanged with a gain of 0.01%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.21% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.07%. The small-cap Russell 2000 also moved lower, falling 0.22%, reflecting a somewhat cautious tone in the broader market.From a technical perspective, the NASDAQ closed just below its 100-day moving average, which currently comes in at 22,702.42. The index finished the day at 22,697.10, keeping that moving average as a key near-term level for traders.Earlier in the session, the NASDAQ pushed higher and tested its falling 200-hour moving average, but sellers leaned against that level and prevented a sustained break to the upside. The rejection reinforces the 200-hour moving average as an important resistance and risk-defining level, with the inability to move above it helping to cap gains for the day.Looking at the S&P 500 index, the market also encountered resistance at an important moving average level. On the hourly chart, the rally stalled against the falling 100-hour moving average (the blue line on the chart), with sellers leaning against that level and preventing further upside momentum.As long as the price remains below the 100-hour moving average, sellers maintain the near-term technical advantage.The decline from that resistance has brought the index down to test a key swing support zone between 6758.51 and 6789.05. This area has previously acted as an important pivot and is now being tested again. Holding above this zone would help stabilize the market, while a break below it would likely shift the bias more firmly to the downside and open the door for further selling pressure. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US intelligence reports that Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil higher, stocks lower and the USD higher. If they are successful, it would keep the Strait unpassable. If successful, it could be the next wave of mass destruction for the US. The S&P moved from 6831 to a low of 6786. The S&P is now trading at 6796 which is near unchanged on the day. The high price reached over the last hour peaked at 6845.08. The 100 hour MA comes in at 6844.76. Peaking near that level keeps the sellers in play technically. Support being approached at 6764 to 6789 now (see yellow area on the chart below). Crude oil has moved from $79.90 to $87.07 currently. The price is now moving above the 100 hour MA at $86.80. Staying above would have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint of the range since February 26.The EURUSD moved up to a high of 1.1666 just short of the 50% midpoint of the move down from the February 26 high The price fell jsut short of the key 200 day MA. The 100 hour MA at 1.15997 (call it 1.1600) is the next key target on more selling. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

CBS reports:U.S. intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry 2 to 3 mines each. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines of Iranian, Chinese and Russian-made variantsMeanwhile as separate Axios report says:The U.S. government has urged Israel not to carry out further strikes on Iran’s energy and oil infrastructure, marking the first time it has restrained Israeli action since their joint operations began. Washington’s concerns include civilian harm, post‑war cooperation with Iran’s oil sector, and risks of broader regional retaliation that could disrupt global energy marketsThis is a tough market to trade as WTI is now up $10 from the lows of the day on the Chris Wright mess and trading at $87/barrel.I have a hard time believing that 2-3 mines in small boats can't be combated but it's a large body of water and on tanker getting hit by a naval mine could wreck the insurance market once again.As for where oil lands when this finally cools down, Goldman Sachs is out with a note:Goldman: We estimate the fair value of crude prices based on the cumulative hits to Persian Gulf crude production and to commercial oil inventories after accounting for policy responses (e.g. SPRs) and assuming a Brent fair value in the low $60s without the Iran shock. Exhibit 2 shows 2026Q4 fair value estimates for Brent/WTI (forwards at $74/70) of: $76/72 in a risk scenario where Persian Gulf exports are down 15mb/d for 30 days$93/89 in a 60-days risk scenario with a15mb/d exports hit.Update: The FT reports that the latest meeting of G7 countries on releasing oil stockpiles ended without a decision on releasing crude inventories. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

WTI crude fell below Friday's low and through $80 after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that the US Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.He's now removed that post and oil is bouncing.This was the post:This isn't a good look for the Secretary and White House communications. This war has been curiously absent good reporting on what's actually happening, including the strategy. That's largely because it's down to the whims of one or two men.I'm not sure how Wright got this idea or why he posted it. As energy secretary, he would certainly know what's happening in the oil market.Someone in his office is going to take the fall for it.In terms of follow-up, a Fox News reporter is confirming that it's not true that a Navy vessel escorted a tanker through Hormuz.The Wright post was up for about 25 minutes before it was deleted. In that time, it was picked up by all the news services and had further weighed on oil.Here is a visual look at how oil moved on his post. We've mostly retraced it now.The White House is now in the spin zone, saying the post from Wright was 'premature'. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

High Yield: 3.579% vs 6-month avg. 3.563%WI level at the time of the auction 3.568%Tail 1.1 bps vs 6 month average of -0.6 bpsBid-to-Cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of 2.69xDealers 19.5% vs 6 month average of 10.5%Directs 20.7% versus 6 month average of 25.3%Indirects: 59.8% versus 6 month average of 64.3%AUCTION GRADE: DNot a good auction as the dealers were saddled with 19.5% while above the 10.5% 6 month average. The tail was 1.1 basis points which was also well above the -0.6 basis point average. Both domestic and international demand was well below the averages. The only reason it indicated a grade of F, is the auction did not fail. That is, there was enough bidders to buy it. However, for a 3 year note auction, the demand was tepid at best.The treasury will auction off $39 billion of 9 year and 11 month notes tomorrow and $22 billion of 29 year and 11 month bonds on Thursday. Both will be reopening's of last months issue. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Ethereum futures analysis today points to a constructive 4-hour recovery, with ETH rebuilding fair value higher after earlier selling pressure. The latest structure favors the bulls, but traders still need stronger follow-through above $2,085 before calling it a clean breakout.Bias score: +3.5 bullishOn investingLive's scale, a +3.5 score means the market has a bullish edge, but not a high-conviction runaway trend.The crypto market is currently showing remarkable endurance amidst a volatile global backdrop. Despite a "risk-off" shock triggered by surging oil prices and falling equity futures, Ethereum has remained resilient, holding steady near the $2,000 mark as buyers absorb selling pressure that would typically crush traditional assets.This stability follows a period where ETH order flow hinted at a post-breakout rotation after reclaiming the $2,000 psychological level. Analysts noted that internal market pressure shifted from sell-dominant to buy-dominant, signaling a structural move rather than a simple emotional bounce.The broader lesson for participants is to move beyond individual opinions and focus on the evolving market structure. As recent price action demonstrates, stubborn traders should watch the bigger picture rather than clinging to failing short positions. By recognizing key volume profile levels and pattern breakouts, traders can better adapt to a market that is currently choosing to "bend but not break" in the face of macro uncertainty.Why Ethereum futures look better on the 4-hour chartThe biggest improvement in this Ethereum futures setup is the steady rise in the Point of Control, or POC.After earlier weakness pushed fair value down toward $1,975 and even $1,935, ETH futures began rebuilding value step by step:$1,995 -> $2,025 -> $2,035 -> $2,045 -> $2,055 -> $2,065 -> $2,085That type of POC migration matters because it shows the market is increasingly accepting higher prices as fair value. For crypto traders, this is often one of the clearest signs that bearish control is fading and a healthier structure is forming.Ethereum price prediction: bullish recovery, but breakout confirmation is still missingThe current Ethereum futures price prediction is moderately bullish, not aggressively bullish.That distinction matters.The market has clearly improved its internal structure, but the latest move higher did not show the kind of clean upside efficiency usually seen in a powerful breakout. Range expanded, volume picked up, but net delta stayed relatively modest. That suggests higher-price acceptance rather than full-blown buyer domination.In plain English, ETH looks stronger, but the next push still needs proof.Order flow signal: selling pressure lost quality near $1,975One of the most important signals in this sequence came near the $1,975 area.That zone saw heavy activity and strong sell-side pressure, yet the market failed to fully break down and instead began stabilizing before value migrated higher again. This kind of behavior often points to absorption, where aggressive sellers are met by passive buyers willing to take the other side.For traders using order flow and value-based analysis, this is a meaningful clue. It does not guarantee a major rally, but it does suggest the downside auction became less efficient.That helps explain why the bullish score improved.A key caution for crypto traders: do not overstate the CVD flipThere is a constructive bullish element in the cumulative delta behavior, but it should be handled carefully.The Session CVD appears to reset across separate sessions or days, which means it should not be treated as one uninterrupted bullish reversal from a deeply negative extreme into a fully positive trend. The improvement is real, but the strongest version of that argument is probably too optimistic.That is why the score sits at +3.5, not +6 or +7.Key ETH futures levels to watch now$2,085This is the latest POC area and the most important immediate reference point. Holding above it keeps the bullish structure in decent shape.$2,055-$2,065This is the key support band for the current 4-hour recovery. If bulls lose this zone, the setup becomes much less convincing.$2,110This is the first upside checkpoint. A clean move above it would show the market is doing more than just pausing at higher prices.$2,125-$2,135This is the next structural resistance area. Reaching this zone with stronger participation would improve the bullish case.$1,985-$1,975If ETH futures lose the near-term support band, this lower area comes back into focus as the major absorption zone from the earlier selloff.What would make Ethereum futures more bullish?ETH futures would likely earn a stronger bullish score if the next completed 4-hour bars show:POC holding at or above $2,085stronger positive deltabetter upside efficiencysellers failing to push value back below $2,065That would shift the setup from a repair phase into something closer to true bullish continuation.What would weaken the ETH bullish case?The bullish outlook would fade quickly if:POC drops back below $2,055negative delta starts expanding again on stronger activitythe market begins accepting prices back toward $2,025 and belowIf that happens, traders would need to respect the possibility that ETH is still stuck in a broader two-way battle rather than entering a cleaner uptrend.What this means for crypto investorsFor crypto investors, this is not yet a euphoric Ethereum breakout setup. But it is also no longer a clean bearish structure.The main takeaway is that Ethereum futures have improved internally. The market is building value at higher prices, and earlier selling pressure no longer has the same force. That is often how stronger trends begin: first the market stabilizes, then value migrates, and only later does the broader breakout become obvious.Investors should watch whether ETH can continue to defend the $2,055-$2,065 area while gradually pressing above $2,085 and then $2,110.Bottom line: Ethereum futures analysis remains moderately bullishThis Ethereum futures analysis supports a +3.5 bullish bias on the 4-hour chart.The structure has improved, the POC has migrated higher, and sellers appear to be losing control. But the latest move still looks more like acceptance at higher prices than a confirmed breakout.That keeps the outlook constructive, while also arguing for some caution until ETH proves it can sustain momentum above the current value area.This analysis is a decision support tool, not financial advice. Traders and investors should do their own research and manage risk carefully. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Shares of Canadian subprime lender Goeasy are down 60% today on guidance regarding surging loan defaults and write downs. It comes ahead of the March 25 earnings report.The company announced a $331mm charge to reflect weaker-than-expected recoveries on loans and will breach leverage covenants as a result. They have secured accommodation agreements but this is a bad turn of events and they have suspended the dividend.Sub prime lending is often first to drop near the end of a credit cycle and the company said recovery efforts on late-stage delinquencies -- mostly in autos and power sports equipment -- had been exhaustedSub prime lending is often first to drop when we hit the pain point in the credit cycle. Parts of Canada have seen home prices fall more than 25% and unemployment is now creeping up as well.Canadian bank shares rose more than 40% last year as the market estimated that the worst of the housing decline was already handled but this raises fresh questions. If possible, the good news here is that this company was rife with fraud. Jehoshaphat Research alleged in September 2025 that the company was inflating pre-tax earnings and hiding a rise in unpaid interest.Investors believe GSY has a “secret sauce” of novel, brilliant underwriting. We agree – well, sort of. The secret sauce is accounting, rather than underwriting, creativity. A number of aggressive accounting policies and rule changes have massaged charge-offs, delinquencies, opex, earnings and ROE into more favorable-looking short-term performance.Notably, the CFO quit in September and the CEO resigned at the beginning of 2025.So this house of cards has come tumbling down and the question is whether other Canadian lenders are hiding losses or will be facing rising defaults soon. So far, the market isn't seeing a problem as shares of the largest banks are up today. They have a reputation for prudent lending but every bank has that reputation until it doesn't. As for that chart, what a double top! As for the analysts, 8 of 9 had a buy rating on shares at the time of the short report in September. Today, TD -- who has a $135 price target and a hold rating writes:We view this as negative given the earnings outlook will be lower and highly uncertain This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD has pushed to a new high for 2026, breaking above the February peak at 0.7146 and reaching a session high of 0.7155. However, after the breakout, the price has rotated back lower and is now trading just below that prior high, creating the risk of a failed breakout if buyers cannot maintain momentum.For now, the technical picture still favors the buyers as long as the pair can hold above the recent swing levels at 0.7135 and 0.7121. Those levels represent prior resistance that should now act as support. Staying above them keeps the bullish bias intact, while a move below would likely disappoint buyers and could trigger a shift in sentiment at least in the short term, with former buyers turning into sellers. There is additional downside targets at the 200 hour MA and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart near 0.7060.In additional to technicals, the fundamentals are also helping support the upside in the pair. The broader risk tone in markets is more positive, with U.S. stocks extending gains after yesterday’s late-session reversal higher. The Nasdaq is up about 141 points (0.62%), while the S&P 500 and Dow are also trading higher, reinforcing the risk-on backdrop that tends to benefit the Australian dollar.At the same time, U.S. yields are moving lower, which is also providing a tailwind for AUDUSD. The 10-year yield is down about 2.1 basis points to 4.112%, well off yesterday’s high of 4.214%. Lower yields typically weigh on the U.S. dollar and can help support higher-beta currencies like the Aussie.The RBA meets next week. The bottom line for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is that policy is likely to remain tight with a slight bias toward additional tightening, but the central bank is not committed to a fixed path. After the February rate hike, policymakers signaled that inflation risks remain elevated and progress toward the 2–3% target is not yet secure, meaning further tightening cannot be ruled out. Adam just posted with more reasons. You can read his post HERE This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Australian dollar has extended its gain to 77 pips on the day to 0.7150. That's the best level since 2023 and only a handful of pips away from the best levels since June 2022.I have been beating this drum for awhile but there continues to be much to like about the Australian dollar:1) CommoditiesThis is the obvious one as there is a bull market in metals right now and Australia is a major producer. Yes, iron ore isn't exactly booming but Australia is a mining superpower and money will be flowing into greenfield projects in gold and other metals. Australia also has huge reserves of natural gas and unexploited oil potential.2) The trade warAustralia has done a masterful job of playing all sides in the trade war. It rolled over on US tariffs largely because it does very little trade with the US. Meanwhile, it's managed to transition to Chinese EVs without upsetting the US and has mostly managed the relationship with China. In short, it seems as though everyone wants to be Australia's friend and in a world that's less-friendly that it's been in decades, that's a big tailwind.3) HousingHome prices in Australia have been remarkable resilient and that's helped it avoid some of the economic weakness that's crept into Canada. I'd argue that there is eventually a price to pay for housing unaffordability but while the music is playing you need to dance. 4) RBA rate hikesThe RBA hiked rates already this year and there is another 60 bps priced in for this year. That will get the RBA close to 4.50% and in a world where Trump is trying to stack the Fed to get rates below 3%, that could be meaningful carry. Justin earlier highlighted the March 17 RBA meeting.While broader markets are focused on the US-Iran conflict, just be mindful that the central bank bonanza will return next week.In that lieu, the RBA was the first major central bank to pivot back to rate hikes amid sustained inflation fears. And with higher oil prices threatening higher inflation pressures globally, that might compel the central bank to act even quicker in their pivot... the aussie looks primed to capitalise amid a very strong argument for the RBA to keep policy divergence in the currency's favour.That was a good call and continues to be. The main risk is that both China and the US economy will stall, dragging down the global economy with it. Those risks rose with the Iran attacks but with Trump already signalling a TACO, the risks are worth the reward.Technically, if it can break the 2023 high of 0.7157, there isn't much standing in the way of 0.7600. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Crude oil is racing to the downside, pressured by both fresh fundamental developments and increasingly bearish technical signals.On the fundamental side, reports indicate that the IEA is meeting with government representatives on Tuesday to discuss supply conditions, with the purpose of determining whether a coordinated release of oil stocks may be necessary. That headline has added to the selling pressure in the market.Technicals are reinforcing the more bearish bias as well. On the hourly chart, the rally from the February 26 low at $63.81 to yesterday’s high at $119.48 places the 50% midpoint retracement at $91.65. Late yesterday, following comments from President Trump, crude broke below that key midpoint level and quickly tumbled to a low of $81.19.Since that sharp decline, prices have attempted to rebound, but the recovery has repeatedly stalled just ahead of the $91.65 midpoint. In fact, the high today reached $91.48, only a few cents shy of that level, before sellers stepped back in. Staying below that retracement level gave sellers the confidence to push the market lower again.On the downside, buyers initially tried to defend the 100-hour moving average near $86.50, and for a time the lows held against that support. However, renewed selling tied to the IEA headlines pushed prices below the 100-hour moving average, extending the decline to a new session low of $83.01. The current price is trading near $84.70.Looking ahead, the 100-hour moving average at $86.50 now becomes the key risk barometer. Staying below that level keeps the bearish bias intact, while a move back above could signal disappointment for sellers after the recent break.On the downside, the next target is yesterday’s low at $81.19, followed by the rising 200-hour moving average near $78.23. Notably, it was back on February 26 that the market based against that 200-hour moving average before launching the sharp rally that ultimately carried prices toward $120.In the video above, I walk through the crude oil chart in detail, highlighting the key technical levels, why the 50% retracement and moving averages matter so much right now, and what traders should be watching next as the battle between buyers and sellers unfolds.Stocks have moved higher since the IEA commentary. The NASDAQ index is now up 0.72%. The S&P index is up 0.44% in the Dow industrial average is up 0.47%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.