Reuters is reporting that CMA CGM has reopened container bookings from major Gulf export hubs, signalling improving conditions for regional shipping after recent disruptions. This is good news if correct. Recent attacks suggest this may be premature:Oil price rocketing higher as attacks on tankers by Iran escalate. US stocks dropping.Oil price leaps higher on news of 2 tankers attacked in the GulfSummary:CMA CGM has reopened cargo bookings from several Gulf countries.Shipments from Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now being accepted again.The reopening follows earlier disruptions linked to regional conflict and maritime security concerns.Shipping companies had temporarily restricted operations due to vessel safety risks.Gulf ports are key global trade hubs linking Asia, Europe and Africa.The move suggests improving operational conditions for regional shipping routes.Global container shipping group CMA CGM has announced the immediate reopening of cargo bookings from several Gulf countries, signalling a partial normalization of trade flows after recent disruptions linked to heightened regional tensions.The company said it has resumed accepting bookings for shipments originating from Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to destinations worldwide. The move comes after a period in which shipping activity in parts of the Gulf was constrained due to security concerns and logistical disruptions tied to the conflict involving Iran.Major shipping companies had previously taken precautionary measures, including temporarily suspending some bookings or adjusting routes, as maritime security risks increased across the region. Concerns over attacks on commercial vessels and instability around key shipping corridors had prompted carriers to reassess operations and prioritize crew and cargo safety.By reopening bookings, CMA CGM is signalling that operational conditions have stabilised sufficiently to allow the resumption of normal container shipping activity from these Gulf export hubs. The countries included in the reopening are among the region’s most important logistics and trade centers, serving as key gateways for energy products, manufactured goods and consumer imports.The Gulf plays a crucial role in global trade, with ports in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait acting as major transshipment points connecting Asia, Europe and Africa. Even temporary disruptions to shipping activity in these locations can ripple across global supply chains.Shipping companies have been closely monitoring developments in the region following a series of maritime security incidents and rising geopolitical tensions that raised fears of broader disruptions to shipping lanes.The resumption of bookings suggests shipping operators are regaining confidence that vessels can operate safely through regional waters, although risks remain elevated compared with normal conditions.For global markets, the development could help ease concerns about supply chain disruptions and freight bottlenecks. However, shipping costs and insurance premiums may remain volatile if geopolitical tensions continue to influence maritime security in the Gulf.The announcement highlights how quickly global logistics networks can respond to shifts in geopolitical risk, with shipping companies adjusting operations as security conditions evolve. Tanker attack just a few hours ago. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BoJ Governor Ueda warns currency weakness could intensify inflation risks as higher oil prices and a weaker yen threaten to fuel cost-push inflation in Japan.Summary:Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that foreign exchange movements are increasingly influencing inflation.He said the yen’s impact on prices is larger than in the past, potentially affecting inflation expectations.Brent crude has risen to around $87 from $72 before the Iran conflict, lifting import costs for Japan.The yen has weakened toward ¥158 per dollar, amplifying imported inflation.Economists warn of cost-push inflation and stagflation risks if energy prices remain elevated.Higher import costs could squeeze real wages and weaken household consumption.The BoJ may face pressure to accelerate policy normalisation to stabilise the yen.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has warned that exchange rate movements are becoming an increasingly important driver of Japan’s inflation outlook, highlighting the growing influence of the weaker yen as rising energy prices threaten to reignite cost-push inflation.Speaking in remarks on foreign exchange dynamics, Ueda said currency movements are a key factor shaping the outlook for both economic activity and prices. He noted that the impact of exchange rates on inflation appears to be larger than in the past, meaning policymakers must carefully monitor currency developments when assessing monetary policy decisions.“Foreign exchange is one important factor affecting the economy and prices,” Ueda said, adding that policymakers must remain mindful that currency swings can influence inflation expectations.The comments come as Japan faces renewed inflation pressure following the outbreak of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran in late February. Global energy markets have tightened sharply since the conflict began, pushing Brent crude prices higher. For Japan, which relies heavily on imported energy, the rise in oil prices threatens to feed directly into higher import costs.At the same time, the yen has weakened further, falling toward the ¥159 per dollar area. The currency’s depreciation amplifies the inflationary impact of higher commodity prices by increasing the cost of imported fuel and raw materials.Economists warn that the combination of rising energy prices and a weaker currency could create a new wave of cost-driven inflation in Japan. While such inflation lifts headline price growth, it risks eroding household purchasing power and weighing on consumption.Analysts say the development raises the risk of a stagflation-like environment in which inflation rises while economic growth slows. Higher import costs could squeeze real wages, reducing household spending, while the traditional benefits of yen depreciation for exporters may prove weaker amid global economic uncertainty.Against this backdrop, the Bank of Japan may face increasing pressure to accelerate the normalization of its ultra-loose monetary policy to stabilise the currency and contain imported inflation.Ueda said the central bank will conduct appropriate monetary policy while carefully assessing how exchange rate movements affect the likelihood of achieving its economic and inflation forecasts.For policymakers, the challenge will be balancing the need to contain currency-driven inflation pressures with the risk that tighter policy could further slow domestic demand. ***BoJ meet next week, 18 and 19 March. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to raise rates in March and May as rising energy prices and strong domestic data keep inflation risks elevated.Earlier:ANZ joins banks expecting March 17 RBA rate hike as oil shock lifts inflation risksWestpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and MayAustralian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next weekSummary:CBA expects the RBA to raise the cash rate in March and May, taking the rate to 4.35%.The outlook has shifted due to higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict.Inflation is already above target and expected to rise further due to energy costs.The Australian economy is running above capacity, with GDP growth around 2.6%.The unemployment rate remains low at 4.1%, indicating a tight labour market.CBA expects trimmed-mean inflation around 0.9% in Q1 and 0.8% in Q2.Some domestic data have softened, including household spending and card activity.Despite the uncertainties, the bank believes the inflation outlook will drive the RBA to tighten policy.Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate at both its March and May policy meetings as policymakers respond to mounting inflation risks and a domestic economy operating above capacity.In a research note, CBA economists said the policy outlook has shifted significantly in recent weeks, largely due to the inflationary implications of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Rising energy prices linked to the war have introduced a new layer of uncertainty for the global economy while increasing the risk that inflation could move further away from the RBA’s target range.The March policy meeting now takes place in a very different environment than was expected only a few weeks ago, according to the bank. While geopolitical developments have complicated the outlook for global growth, they have simultaneously strengthened the near-term inflation pressures facing Australia.CBA argues that domestic economic conditions already point toward the need for tighter monetary policy. Inflation remains above target, the labour market continues to operate at historically tight levels, and the broader economy appears to be running beyond its sustainable capacity.Recent economic data have reinforced that assessment. Annual GDP growth of 2.6% remains above the RBA’s estimated long-term “speed limit” of roughly 2.1%, indicating demand is still exceeding the economy’s productive capacity. At the same time, the unemployment rate has held at 4.1% for two consecutive months, remaining below estimates of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU).Price pressures also remain persistent. January inflation data pointed to ongoing underlying inflation momentum, and CBA’s modelling suggests trimmed-mean inflation could reach around 0.9% in the first quarter and 0.8% in the second quarter — consistent with the RBA’s latest forecasts and above the bank’s previous expectations.Against this backdrop, CBA said recent commentary from RBA officials has reinforced the central bank’s hawkish stance. Both Governor Michele Bullock and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser have emphasised the importance of preventing inflation expectations from becoming entrenched after the sharp rise in prices in recent years.Still, the bank acknowledges that the decision facing policymakers at the March meeting is finely balanced. Global uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict presents downside risks to growth, and some domestic indicators have softened. Household spending was weaker than expected in late 2025, and CBA’s own card spending data showed a pullback in February before a modest recovery in March.Unit labour costs have also moderated somewhat and wage growth has not shown signs of reaccelerating.Nevertheless, CBA believes the balance of risks now favours action. With inflation already elevated, energy prices rising and inflation expectations showing signs of drifting higher, the bank expects the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points in both March and May, taking the policy rate to 4.35%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.Injects 24.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Expectations for an RBA rate hike on March 17 are strengthening as oil-driven inflation risks grow and major banks including ANZ join forecasts for tighter policy.Summary:RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that oil price shocks tied to the Iran conflict pose upside risks to inflation.He said there will be “genuine policy debate” at the March 17 RBA meeting.Markets now price around a 70% probability of a 25bp rate hike next week.Westpac, NAB, Citi, Deutsche Bank and ANZ now expect a March rate increase.Bank of America, UBS and Capital Economics also forecast a hike at the upcoming meeting.Westpac expects two hikes, March and May, lifting the cash rate to around 4.35%.Higher oil prices and limited spare capacity in the economy are key drivers of tightening expectations.Expectations of a near-term interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia have strengthened after fresh comments from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser and a growing wave of forecasts from major banks predicting tighter policy as soon as next week.Speaking earlier this week, Hauser warned that the recent surge in oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions involving Iran presents clear upside risks to inflation. He emphasised that the central bank’s policy response will depend on how persistent the shock proves to be, but signalled that the upcoming March 17 policy meeting could involve a “genuine policy debate”.“Our response depends on the size and persistence of the price shock,” Hauser said, highlighting the uncertainty created by rapidly evolving geopolitical developments.Despite the uncertain outlook, Hauser stressed the importance of preventing inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. Allowing inflation to remain elevated for too long, he warned, risks repeating the damaging experience of the recent inflation surge.“If we fail to act decisively enough to prevent inflation staying high or even rising and expectations of inflation disanchor… it will be bad for everyone,” he said, describing inflation as “toxic” for the broader economy.Hauser also noted that Australia’s economy continues to operate close to its capacity limits. Recent data show annual GDP growth running around 2.6%, above the central bank’s estimate of roughly 2% sustainable growth, suggesting demand may still be exceeding the economy’s underlying supply potential.Financial markets have reacted quickly to the remarks. Interest-rate futures now imply roughly a 70% probability that the RBA will raise the cash rate by 25 basis points at its March 17 meeting, a sharp shift from expectations earlier in the year when many analysts anticipated the central bank would remain on hold.Several major banks have moved to forecast a hike next week. Westpac, National Australia Bank, Citi, Deutsche Bank and now ANZ expect the RBA to raise the cash rate in March, reflecting concerns that higher oil prices could push inflation higher again.Westpac has gone further, revising its outlook to expect two rate hikes — in March and May — which would lift the cash rate to a peak of around 4.35%. The bank said policymakers may act pre-emptively to prevent inflation expectations from drifting upward even if the energy-driven shock proves temporary.Other institutions including Bank of America, UBS and Capital Economics have also shifted toward expecting a rate increase at the upcoming meeting.The rapid shift in forecasts highlights how the Middle East conflict has complicated the RBA’s policy outlook. While Australia’s status as a net energy exporter may provide some support to national income, rising global oil prices still pose a risk to domestic inflation and borrowing costs.With the March decision approaching, policymakers now face a delicate balancing act between responding to geopolitical inflation risks and ensuring monetary policy remains aligned with domestic economic conditions. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Oracle is reportedly preparing layoffs that could reach as many as 45,000 employees, above the confirmed 20,000–30,000 range.Much of the restructuring is tied to AI automation within Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.AI agents have reportedly been managing database administration tasks for several months.One internal example saw 47 database administrators replaced by three senior architects supervising automated systems.Internal metrics suggest the AI tools can detect around 94% of database issues automatically.Entire solution engineering teams that customise enterprise deployments may also be eliminated.Some implementation workflows reportedly fall from six weeks to roughly six hours using AI tools.Oracle is reportedly planning sweeping job cuts that could affect as many as 45,000 employees, far exceeding the company’s publicly confirmed reduction of 20,000 to 30,000 roles, according to people familiar with the situation.While the layoffs come amid heavy investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and cloud computing, insiders say the reductions are not solely driven by the cost of building large-scale AI data centers. Instead, much of the restructuring appears tied to the company’s increasing use of AI systems to automate technical and operational work previously performed by large engineering teams.Sources inside the company say Oracle has spent roughly eight months running internal pilot programs that deploy AI agents to manage database administration tasks within its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure environment. The automated systems are now reportedly capable of performing many routine functions once handled by database administrators, including system maintenance, performance optimisation and backup verification.One example cited by a source involved a team of 47 database administrators in Austin whose responsibilities were largely replaced by automated management tools overseen by a small group of senior architects. In that case, the work previously performed by dozens of engineers was reduced to three senior specialists supervising AI-driven processes.Internal metrics cited by employees suggest the AI systems can detect and address roughly 94% of database issues before human intervention becomes necessary. If accurate, that level of automation could significantly reduce the need for large support teams that historically maintained enterprise database environments.The restructuring is also said to extend beyond technical operations. Sources indicate that some solution engineering teams, specialists responsible for designing customised deployments for enterprise clients, are also being eliminated.According to employees familiar with the transition, new AI-driven development tools are capable of generating customised database architectures and migration plans in a matter of hours rather than weeks. Tasks that once required large implementation teams are increasingly being automated through software-driven workflows.One insider described watching a 12-person enterprise solutions team responsible for implementing systems for Fortune 500 clients learn that their roles were being eliminated almost immediately.Oracle is reportedly offering generous severance packages, with some employees receiving up to 18 months of salary along with accelerated equity vesting. However, workers say the packages reflect a broader concern that similar roles may be disappearing across the enterprise software industry as companies adopt comparable automation strategies.If confirmed, a workforce reduction approaching 45,000 employees would rank among the largest technology layoffs in recent years and signal a dramatic shift toward AI-driven operational models across the sector. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK housing demand weakened in February as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices raised fears mortgage rates could remain elevated.Summary:The RICS house price balance fell to -12 in February, weaker than January’s -10 and the -9 expected by economists.The survey indicates more respondents reporting falling prices than rising ones.New buyer enquiries dropped sharply to -26 from -15, the lowest level since December.The survey period overlapped with the start of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran.Higher energy prices have raised concerns that mortgage rates could stay elevated for longer.Near-term sales expectations slipped to -2, the weakest since November.House price expectations fell sharply to -18 from -6.Tenant demand remained steady while new landlord instructions stayed deeply negative.Britain’s housing market lost momentum in February as buyer demand weakened amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and growing concerns that mortgage rates could remain elevated due to higher energy prices.A survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed its house price balance slipped to -12 in February, down from -10 in January and weaker than economists’ expectations of -9 in a Reuters poll. The negative reading indicates that more survey respondents reported falling prices than rising ones.The deterioration in housing sentiment comes as geopolitical tensions intensified following the outbreak of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran on February 28, which pushed global energy prices higher and heightened economic uncertainty.The RICS survey, conducted between February 23 and March 9, captured the early impact of those developments on the housing market. Surveyors reported a sharp drop in new buyer enquiries, which fell to a net balance of -26 in February from -15 in January. That marked the lowest level since December and suggests prospective buyers have become more cautious.According to RICS head of market research and analytics Tarrant Parsons, the worsening geopolitical backdrop has dented confidence among buyers. Rising oil and energy prices have also raised the possibility that mortgage rates could remain higher for longer, adding further pressure to affordability in the housing market.Forward-looking indicators also softened. Near-term sales expectations slipped to a net balance of -2, the weakest reading since November, pointing to subdued transaction activity in the coming months.Expectations for house prices over the near term deteriorated sharply as well, with the net balance dropping to -18 from -6 previously. The shift suggests surveyors anticipate continued downward pressure on property values if borrowing costs remain elevated.Rental market dynamics showed little change during the period. Tenant demand remained broadly stable over the three months to February, while the supply of rental properties continued to be constrained. New landlord instructions remained deeply negative, indicating a persistent shortage of rental stock.The survey highlights the sensitivity of the UK housing market to interest rate expectations and economic uncertainty. With borrowing costs still elevated and geopolitical risks feeding into energy prices, analysts say the housing sector could face further headwinds in the months ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation for March 2025 rise to 5.2% from 5% in February. RBA looks locked and loaded:Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next weekWestpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and MayRBA meet next week: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals from its North Haven Private Income Fund after redemption requests reached nearly 11% of shares outstanding.The fund returned about $169 million, or 45.8% of tender requests, due to quarterly redemption caps.Investor scrutiny is increasing across the $2 trillion private credit market.JPMorgan has marked down loans used as collateral by private credit firms, reducing their borrowing capacity.The adjustments largely affect software company loans, where AI disruption fears are rising.Higher redemptions have also appeared at funds run by BlackRock, Blackstone and Blue Owl.Banks appear to be taking precautionary steps to reduce leverage exposure in the sector.Fresh signs of strain are emerging in the fast-growing private credit market as redemption pressures mount at major funds and banks move to reduce risk exposure to the sector.Morgan Stanley has limited investor withdrawals from one of its private credit funds after redemption requests surged. In a regulatory filing, the bank said investors sought to redeem nearly 11% of shares in the North Haven Private Income Fund (PIF), significantly exceeding the fund’s quarterly withdrawal cap.The fund returned roughly $169 million, or about 45.8% of the requested redemptions, according to a letter sent to investors. As outlined in its offering documents, the fund limits withdrawals to around 5% of outstanding units per quarter to prevent forced asset sales during periods of market stress.Morgan Stanley said restricting withdrawals helps avoid liquidating assets at depressed valuations and protects long-term investor returns. The bank noted that credit fundamentals within the fund remain broadly stable, with the portfolio spanning 312 borrowers across 44 industries as of late January.Nevertheless, the episode underscores rising scrutiny of the roughly $2 trillion private credit market, which has expanded rapidly in recent years as banks retreated from direct lending after the global financial crisis.Investor concerns have intensified following several recent credit issues and questions about the durability of loan portfolios in a higher interest rate environment. Analysts say uncertainty over the pace of mergers and acquisitions, speculation about credit deterioration and falling asset yields are weighing on sentiment.In earlier news, JPMorgan Chase is reportedly reducing its exposure to the sector by marking down the value of loans held as collateral by private credit firms that borrow from the bank.The markdowns primarily affect loans to software companies, where rapid advances in artificial intelligence have raised concerns that some business models could face disruption, potentially weakening borrowers’ ability to repay debt.By lowering the valuation of these loans, JPMorgan is effectively reducing how much private credit firms can borrow against them in financing arrangements known as “back-leverage.” In some cases, firms may need to post additional collateral.The move appears to be a precautionary step rather than a response to widespread loan losses. However, it signals that large banks are increasingly wary of risks building in a market that layers leverage on top of leveraged corporate loans.Redemption pressure has also surfaced elsewhere in the sector. BlackRock recently restricted withdrawals from a flagship debt fund, while Blackstone reported elevated redemption requests at its BCRED private credit vehicle.Together, the developments suggest investors are reassessing exposure to private credit as borrowing costs remain elevated and technological disruption reshapes parts of the corporate landscape. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. has launched sweeping Section 301 probes into manufacturing overcapacity across 16 trading partners, opening the door to a new wave of tariffs.Summary:The U.S. has launched a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners over excess manufacturing capacity.Targeted economies include China, the EU, Japan, India, Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan.The probe could lead to new tariffs if unfair trade practices are confirmed.The investigation comes after courts struck down elements of Trump’s earlier tariff programme.Section 301 gives the U.S. president authority to impose trade penalties after an investigation.A second Section 301 probe into goods linked to forced labour could launch soon and may cover around 60 countries.The move signals a potential expansion of U.S. tariffs and renewed trade tensions globally.The United States has launched a new trade investigation that could pave the way for fresh tariffs on a wide range of imports, as President Donald Trump’s administration seeks alternative legal avenues after earlier tariff measures were struck down in court.U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that Washington has opened a Section 301 investigation into what it described as “structural excess capacity and production” in several manufacturing sectors across 16 major trading partners. The probe will examine whether state-backed overproduction in those economies is distorting global markets and harming American industry.The countries and jurisdictions targeted by the investigation include China, the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan and India. Officials said the inquiry could ultimately result in the imposition of new tariffs or other trade measures if the investigation concludes that unfair practices are damaging U.S. manufacturers.The move marks the latest step in the administration’s attempt to revive trade restrictions after a recent court ruling blocked elements of Trump’s earlier tariff programme. By launching a Section 301 probe, the White House is relying on a long-standing provision of U.S. trade law that allows the government to investigate and respond to practices it considers unfair or discriminatory.Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 grants the U.S. president broad authority to impose tariffs or other penalties following an investigation into trade practices that burden American commerce. The same mechanism was used during Trump’s first administration to justify tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, triggering a prolonged U.S.–China trade conflict.Officials indicated that the current investigation will focus on manufacturing sectors where global supply has significantly exceeded demand, leading to persistent price pressure and accusations of industrial overcapacity.The administration also signalled that additional probes are imminent. A separate Section 301 investigation targeting goods produced with forced labour is expected to be launched shortly and could cover roughly 60 countries.The rapid expansion of trade probes suggests the White House is preparing a broader tariff strategy that could significantly reshape global trade relations. If tariffs ultimately result from the investigations, they could affect supply chains across Asia, Europe and North America and heighten tensions with several major U.S. trading partners. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of a global stockpile drawdown.Separately, intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s government remains stable despite weeks of bombardment.Summary:The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.The move is part of a 400 million barrel coordinated release by the International Energy Agency.Deliveries are expected to begin next week and continue over roughly 120 days.The intervention aims to cool oil prices following supply shocks linked to the Iran conflict.Separate U.S. intelligence assessments say Iran’s government is not at risk of imminent collapse.Analysts say the clerical leadership remains cohesive despite heavy strikes and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei.Israeli officials privately acknowledge there is no certainty the war will topple Iran’s regime.The findings suggest the conflict — and its impact on energy markets — could persist longer than initially expected.The United States and its allies are moving to stabilise global oil markets as the conflict involving Iran continues to roil energy supplies, while new intelligence assessments suggest Iran’s government remains firmly in control despite weeks of military strikes.U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington will release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of a coordinated effort among members of the International Energy Agency to ease supply pressures. The broader initiative will see a combined 400 million barrels released by the 32-member IEA group.According to Wright, the U.S. portion of the emergency release will begin next week and is expected to take roughly 120 days to deliver to the market. The move follows a sharp surge in crude prices triggered by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.Officials hope the coordinated stockpile release will help cool global oil prices and reassure markets about the availability of supply as shipping security concerns grow in the Gulf and traders price in a rising geopolitical risk premium.The SPR drawdown represents one of the largest coordinated interventions in oil markets in recent years and underscores the urgency among major economies to contain the economic fallout from the conflict. -At the same time, U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s leadership structure remains intact and is not at risk of imminent collapse, according to several sources familiar with the latest reports.Multiple intelligence analyses compiled in recent days conclude the Iranian government retains control over the population and continues to function despite nearly two weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment. The findings suggest that expectations of rapid political upheaval in Tehran may be misplaced.The assessment comes after the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 during the opening phase of the strikes. Despite that unprecedented development, analysts say the clerical leadership and security apparatus appear to remain cohesive.Israeli officials have also privately acknowledged that there is no guarantee the military campaign will lead to the collapse of Iran’s ruling establishment, according to a senior official familiar with internal discussions.The intelligence picture suggests the conflict could extend longer than initially anticipated, complicating efforts by U.S. policymakers to quickly stabilise the region and contain the impact on global energy markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran said the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel.Its forces hit merchant shipping / oil tankers:Reports of tanker attack in southern IraqOil price leaps higher on news of 2 tankers attacked in the GulfThe oil tanker attacks were carried out by Iranian boats laden with explosives. At least one of the tankers was US-owned. At least one crew member has been fatally wounded. Terrible news, a person just doing a job. The oil price is continuing to rise. This war is far from over. On Wednesday Trump:Trump suggests there's "practically nothing left" to target in Iran, war will end soonThis fool is way out of his depth. Nothing left to target? How about explosive laden boats, that'll do for a start. Just an idea. ---As posted earlier:Two oil tankers were attacked in the northern Gulf near Iraq and Kuwait, raising fresh concerns about the safety of commercial shipping in a region already on edge due to the escalating conflict involving Iran.One of the incidents occurred near Iraq’s southern oil export region close to Umm Qasr and the Khor al-Zubair port area. A tanker anchored offshore caught fire after what early indications suggest may have been a deliberate strike on the vessel. Initial reports point to the possibility that the ship was hit by an unmanned explosive boat or similar device, a tactic that has increasingly appeared in maritime attacks in the region.Around the same time, a second tanker anchored off the coast of Kuwait suffered an explosion that damaged the vessel and forced the crew to respond to a fire onboard. Early information indicates the blast occurred along the side of the ship while it was waiting in regional waters. While damage assessments are still emerging, there were no immediate indications of major casualties. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Two oil tankers were attacked in the northern Gulf near Iraq and Kuwait.One vessel near Umm Qasr caught fire following what appears to be a deliberate strike.A second tanker off Kuwait suffered an explosion and onboard fire.Early reports suggest the use of explosive drones or unmanned boats.The incidents highlight rising risks to commercial shipping in Gulf waters.The northern Gulf is a key staging area for tankers linked to Iraq’s major oil export terminals.Maritime attacks could raise insurance costs and increase volatility in global oil markets.Two oil tankers were attacked in the northern Gulf near Iraq and Kuwait, raising fresh concerns about the safety of commercial shipping in a region already on edge due to the escalating conflict involving Iran.One of the incidents occurred near Iraq’s southern oil export region close to Umm Qasr and the Khor al-Zubair port area. A tanker anchored offshore caught fire after what early indications suggest may have been a deliberate strike on the vessel. Initial reports point to the possibility that the ship was hit by an unmanned explosive boat or similar device, a tactic that has increasingly appeared in maritime attacks in the region.Around the same time, a second tanker anchored off the coast of Kuwait suffered an explosion that damaged the vessel and forced the crew to respond to a fire onboard. Early information indicates the blast occurred along the side of the ship while it was waiting in regional waters. While damage assessments are still emerging, there were no immediate indications of major casualties.The attacks come amid rising geopolitical tensions across the Gulf as the war involving Iran continues to threaten key shipping routes and energy infrastructure. Security analysts say the incidents appear consistent with a broader pattern of asymmetric maritime attacks that have targeted commercial vessels in the region in recent months.The northern Gulf, particularly waters near Iraq and Kuwait, is a critical hub for global oil exports. Tankers frequently anchor in the area while awaiting access to loading terminals or cargo instructions from nearby export facilities such as those connected to Iraq’s Basra oil operations.Any disruption in these waters has the potential to ripple across global energy markets. Even isolated attacks can raise shipping insurance costs, trigger rerouting of vessels and reinforce concerns about supply disruptions at a time when crude markets are already under pressure from geopolitical risk.The incidents also come as international governments discuss potential measures to safeguard maritime trade in the Gulf, including enhanced naval patrols or escort operations for commercial vessels if security conditions deteriorate further.G7 explores ship escorts in Gulf as Middle East war threatens energy supply routesWhile the full details of the attacks remain under investigation, the events underscore the growing vulnerability of global energy supply chains to maritime security threats in the region. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

An oil tanker near Iraq’s Umm Qasr port erupted in flames, with preliminary reports pointing to a possible direct attack on the vessel.Some reports say its multiple tankers on fire. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump considers invoking emergency powers to revive offshore oil production in California as the Iran conflict pushes crude prices higher.Summary:President Trump is preparing to invoke the Defense Production Act to revive offshore oil production in southern California.The move would ease permitting and potentially override some state restrictions.Houston-based Sable Offshore Corp. is seeking to restart production from dormant offshore platforms.The initiative comes as oil prices rise amid the conflict with Iran and concerns over global supply disruptions.California relies heavily on imported crude and faces some of the highest fuel prices in the U.S.The proposal also reflects political pressure ahead of the November midterm elections.nfo via a Bloomberg (gated) report)U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to invoke Cold War-era emergency powers in an attempt to revive offshore oil production off the southern California coast, a move aimed at easing pressure on global crude supplies following the energy shock triggered by the conflict with Iran.According to people familiar with the plan, the administration is considering using the Defense Production Act (DPA) to override certain state-level restrictions and accelerate permitting for offshore drilling projects. The measure would specifically benefit Houston-based Sable Offshore Corp., which is seeking to restart production from a cluster of dormant offshore platforms in California waters.The proposal reflects growing concern within the administration over rising energy prices and tightening global oil supply. The war with Iran has pushed crude prices sharply higher and heightened fears of disruptions to shipping routes in the Gulf, prompting policymakers to explore domestic supply options to stabilise markets.By invoking the Defense Production Act, a law originally designed during the Cold War to mobilise industry in the interest of national security, the White House could potentially fast-track approvals and sidestep some state regulatory barriers that have historically limited new drilling activity along California’s coastline.With the November midterm elections approaching, rising living costs, particularly fuel prices, have become a major political issue for voters. Expanding domestic oil production is being considered as one possible tool to help stabilise supply and reduce price pressures.Even so, analysts say restarting offshore platforms would take time and may have only a modest impact on global supply, making the initiative more symbolic of the administration’s push to increase domestic energy output than an immediate solution to the global oil crunch. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

G7 leaders weigh ship escorts in the Gulf and coordinate with regional partners as Middle East tensions threaten energy markets and trade routes. Gotta wonder why this needs to be done if this is true:Trump suggests there's "practically nothing left" to target in Iran, war will end soonAnyway ... summary:G7 leaders reaffirm commitment to maintaining sanctions against Russia.Leaders discussed economic fallout from the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran.The group agreed to strengthen coordination with Gulf countries on economic stability.G7 nations emphasised the need to avoid export restrictions that could worsen supply disruptions.A working group will examine the option of escorting commercial ships through the Gulf.Measures aim to restore freedom of navigation and protect energy supply routes.Group of Seven leaders have reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining sanctions on Russia while stepping up coordination to manage the economic fallout from the escalating Middle East conflict.In a statement released following a call convened by French President Emmanuel Macron, leaders from the United States, Canada, Japan, Britain, Germany, France and Italy discussed the impact of the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran, particularly the surge in global energy prices and risks to critical shipping routes in the Gulf.The G7 said it remained firmly committed to continuing sanctions against Russia, signalling that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East would not alter the group’s stance on the war in Ukraine.At the same time, leaders agreed to strengthen coordination with Gulf countries to address the wider economic consequences of the regional conflict. Officials warned that disruptions to shipping lanes, energy markets and trade flows could ripple across the global economy if tensions escalate further.One key focus of the discussion was the safety of maritime traffic through the Gulf, where heightened military activity has raised concerns about the security of commercial shipping. The G7 said it would work together to prepare measures aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the region.As part of those efforts, a dedicated working group has been established to examine the possibility of escorting commercial vessels through the Gulf if security conditions allow. The initiative would involve cooperation with shipping companies, transport operators and insurers to ensure vessels can continue operating safely in the area.Such escorts could become necessary if the security environment deteriorates further or if attacks on maritime infrastructure threaten the flow of energy supplies through key chokepoints.The discussions reflect growing concern among major economies that disruptions in the Gulf could intensify volatility in global energy markets. Oil prices have already risen amid fears that conflict in the region could threaten supply routes or infrastructure critical to global crude shipments.The G7 also stressed the importance of avoiding export restrictions that could further strain global supply chains and amplify price pressures.The statement underscores the group’s attempt to balance security concerns in the Middle East with efforts to limit economic fallout, particularly through maintaining stable energy supplies and open trade flows. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Stocks finish mixed as energy surges and yields riseEU warns that the US war on Iran could push EU inflation above 3%Bitcoin continues to waffle up and down,, but the bias is to the upsideTrump: US military is way ahead of scheduleIran's President sets maximalist conditions for ending the warUS February monthly budget -307.5B vs -75.85B expectedIran has threatened to strike the US west coast - reportU.S. Treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.217%Trump administration will announce new trade investigations - reportMacron said it will take a "few weeks" to coordinate Hormuz ship escortsEIA weekly US crude oil inventories +3824K vs +1055K expectedTrump suggests there's "practically nothing left" to target in Iran, war will end soonIEA officially recommends the release of strategic reserves -- 400 million barrelsAre tensions in the Middle East about to cool off?US February CPY 2.4% y/y vs 2.4% expectedThe USD is mixed vs the major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD. What next?investingLive European markets wrap: A more tentative mood awaiting IEA announcementThe U.S. February CPI report came in largely in line with expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation pressures remain stable but not yet decisively lower. Headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching forecasts and unchanged from the prior month. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.3%, also in line with estimates and slightly higher than January’s 0.2% gain. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.5% year-over-year, while the monthly core reading rose 0.2%, slowing from the 0.3% increase in the prior month.Looking deeper into the report, some measures of underlying inflation showed modest improvement. The supercore CPI (services excluding housing) rose 0.35% month-over-month, slowing notably from 0.593% previously, although the year-over-year measure edged slightly higher to 2.746% from 2.671%. Real weekly earnings increased 0.1%, a slowdown from 0.5% in the prior month, suggesting wage-adjusted purchasing power is growing but at a slower pace.Despite the broadly stable inflation picture, some sectors continued to show stronger price pressures, including restaurants (+3.9% y/y), medical care (+4.1%), electricity (+4.8%), and utility gas (+10.9%). Because the report matched expectations across most categories, the market reaction was muted. Looking ahead, March CPI could become more consequential, as it may begin to reflect the impact of the recent Iran-related oil price spike, which could reintroduce upward pressure on energy-driven inflation. Traders were also concerned about the PCE components which would not bode well for the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. U.S. Treasury yields moved sharply higher across the curve, with the 2-year at 3.642% (+7.3 bps), 5-year at 3.790% (+7.5 bps), 7-year at 3.991% (+7.6 bps), 10-year at 4.216% (+8.0 bps), 20-year at 4.830% (+9.5 bps), and the 30-year at 4.863% (+9.1 bps). The move reflects continued pressure in the bond market and a modest bear-steepening, as longer-term yields rose more than the front end.The $39B 10-year Treasury auction also showed below-average demand, stopping at 4.217% vs a 4.210% when-issued level, producing a 0.7 bp tail. The bid-to-cover ratio of 2.45 was slightly below the six-month average, with soft domestic demand (12.8%) partly offset by stronger indirect/foreign demand (74.5%). Overall the auction received a C- grade, reinforcing the theme that investors are demanding higher yields to absorb Treasury supply.At the same time, crude oil surged $4.30, or about 5.15%, even after the IEA recommended releasing 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. The market remains skeptical that reserve releases alone can offset potential supply disruptions tied to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, where a large portion of global oil supply flows. Higher oil prices have bond traders wary, as they raise the risk of renewed inflation pressures, helping push Treasury yields higher on the day.Geopolitical tensions remain elevated as the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran continues, though rhetoric from President Trump suggests the campaign could be nearing an end. Trump said the U.S. military is “way ahead of schedule” and has inflicted more damage than initially expected, claiming the operation has already surpassed what was anticipated in a six-week timeline. He added that “practically nothing is left to target in Iran” and suggested the war could end soon, noting that the conflict would stop whenever he decides to end the operation. Reports indicate that Iranian leadership and military infrastructure have been hit multiple times, and Trump also said the U.S. has targeted 28 naval mine ships, aimed at limiting Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping routes.Despite the optimistic tone from the White House, uncertainty remains about the duration and outcome of the conflict. Some U.S. and Israeli officials are reportedly preparing for at least two more weeks of strikes, and any ceasefire may require assurances that no future strikes will occur, which could complicate negotiations. The biggest market concern continues to be the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. Ongoing attacks on vessels in the region have heightened fears of disruption, helping keep energy prices elevated and markets cautious.In the forex, the U.S. dollar moved broadly higher against most major currencies, supported by rising Treasury yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions that have kept investors cautious. Higher yields across the U.S. curve and concerns about energy-driven inflation have helped underpin demand for the greenback during the session.Against the majors, the USD gained versus the euro, pound, yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar. The EURUSD fell to 1.1570 (-0.34%), while the GBPUSD edged slightly lower to 1.3415 (-0.01%). The USDJPY climbed to 158.93 (+0.56%), reflecting the widening yield differential between the U.S. and Japan. The USDCHF also moved higher with the pair rising to 0.7796 (0.18%), while the USDCAD rose to 1.3587 (+0.06%). The NZDUSD slipped to 0.5916 (-0.19%).The one exception was the Australian dollar, with AUDUSD rising about 0.51% to 0.7155, supported by strength in commodity markets and higher energy prices. Overall, the U.S. dollar index climbed to 99.20 (+0.38%), reflecting broad-based strength as traders favored the dollar amid rising yields and geopolitical uncertainty.U.S. equities finished mixed, as rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, and geopolitical tensions kept investors cautious. The NASDAQ posted a small gain, supported by technology shares, while the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 moved lower. The S&P 500 closed little changed, reflecting a balance between strength in energy and technology and weakness in several consumer and financial sectors.Major U.S. IndicesDow Jones Industrial Average: 47,417.27 (-0.61%)S&P 500: 6,775.80 (-0.08%)NASDAQ Composite: 22,716.13 (+0.08%)Russell 2000: 2,542.90 (-0.20%) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Says oil will be coming downSays the US has hit 28 mine shipsThey've hit Iran's leadership twiceWe've heard all this before, just announce the end already. Try to make some kind of peace deal where ships can get through.At the end of the day, what will this have really accomplished? Forcing Iran to build a new generation of weapons? Them realizing that Hormuz is their real leverage point?Another report says that any truce will require the US and Israel to pledge that there will be no future strikes. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD price action today for resistance near a downward sloping trendline, and on the downside, he found support against a cluster of moving averages. The trendline came in near 1.3456. The moving averages are between 1.3382 and 1.3395. The high price today reached 1.3457 and the low price was at 1.3394. Trading successfully can be improved by knowing where support and resistance are located. To understand that, it is important to understand which technical levels traders tend to look at, and then leaned against them. The hope is that the price respects the levels, and the traders can "risk a little to make more than little".In the video above I outline the technical levels in play explain why they were in play today. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.