Axios spoke with Trump"Any time I want it to end, it will end," Trump said during the five-minute call with Axios."The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period," Trump told Axios.This is the strongest signal yet that the war could end in the near-term. Trump in the article hiimself said it will end "soon" however the same article cites other reports saying Israeli and US officials who have said they are preparing for at least two more weeks of strikes in Iran.But there is one person in charge of the US military during this operation and -- like he said -- it will end when he wants it to. It sounds like he doesn't have the appetite to keep it going, especially with polling showing poor numbers.Trump has struggled to set goals for the campaign as he said he wanted unconditional surrender and regime change at various times. That's looking unlikely at the moment and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has defined goals as a destruction of missile-making capability, the navy and defense capabilities as the main goals.Stock markets initially rose on these headlines but the limited reaction afterwards suggested that the news was largely priced in already. The announcement also came at the same time as the official IEA announcement on strategic oil releases. That announcement didn't contain any timelines and that's led to some buying in crude, which could be hurting broader sentiment. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It was reported earlier today that this was coming so it's not a surprise at this point but it's still a big step and the details are key.In any case, this will be the largest coordinated strategic reserve release in the agency's history, more than double the 182.7 million barrels unleashed during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The recommendation came ahead of a G7 leaders' meeting chaired by Macron.For now, the pace matters more than size. If 100 million barrels hit over the next month, that's roughly 3.3 million barrels per day — a drop in the bucket against the estimated 20 million bpd disruption with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down. That math is why crude rebounded Wednesday despite the headline number.As for the announcement, the IEA said the speed of the release will be determined by the circumstances of each country. That's being taken as a dissapointment and brent has risen to $91 from $88.80 before he spoke."Further details of how this collective action will be implemented in due course," the IEA said.G7 leaders are now meeting to discuss the proposal.Japan isn't waiting around. PM Takaichi announced the country will begin releasing private and state reserves, skipping the formal IEA coordination process entirely. The industry minister said the release will begin by late March. The US and Japan are expected to be the heaviest contributors. Germany confirmed participation, though details remain vague.The operational reality is messy — country allocations, timing, and logistics all need further negotiation. The IEA may also reach out to non-members like China and India, which would be significant. Meanwhile, three more vessels were struck by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, bringing the total to at least 14 since fighting began.Bottom line: the headline is impressive, but the market is rightly skeptical that reserves alone can offset a Hormuz closure. Watch the daily release pace — that's your real signal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Today's CPI report was bang in-line with estimates so that gives the Fed breathing room to wait and see what happens with prices. What's complicating that is the spike in crude oil due to the Iran war. WTI continues to bounce around and is up $1.52 to $84.90 today after rising as high as $89.The interaction with oil, inflation and growth is top-of-mine for bond investors at the moment. Against that is the bid for safety in a world of tariffs and unprovoked US attacks. US 10-year yields are up 5 bps to 4.19%.That rise isn't hurting stock markets as the S&P 500 is now positive, led by a 12% rally in Oracle shares following earnings.Looking at the chart, 10-year yields hit 4.216% on Monday as oil prices peaked. They fell below 4.10% yesterday but are back on the march higher. Two of the things at issue, are how long the Iran war will last and how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively closed. A ship was struck travelling through today.With the rise in yields, the US dollar is stronger today, particularly against the yen. USD/JPY is up 52 pips to 158.54 and approaching some of the levels that triggered the rate check in the pair last month.I don't think borrowing costs will be a particular problem until/unless the 10-year breaks 4.30%, which was the high for the year set in late January. Above that takes us to August of 2025.More important may be Fed signaling about what it will do next on rates. There is little chance of a cut from Powell in March or April but Warsh will take over in June and the market sees a 39% chance of a cut then. He is going to have to walk a fine line during his confirmation because Trump will insist he sounds dovish or he may pull the nomination, despite that jump in oil prices. That could change once he's locked into the position.For the year, the market is pricing in 33 bps in easing. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD has established a clear trading range this week, carving out a high of 1.3606 and a low of 1.3524 during Monday’s session. Since that initial volatility, the pair has tightened into a "coil" pattern, printing a series of lower highs and higher lows through Tuesday and into today’s trade.While the price recently pushed to a fresh daily high of 1.3596, it remains capped below the psychological 1.3600 level and yesterday’s peaks.The Resistance CeilingThe hourly chart reveals a formidable "confluence zone" that bulls must overcome to shift the momentum. This resistance cluster includes:A critical swing area: 1.3593 – 1.3603.Fibonacci Resistance: The 38.2% retracement of last Thursday’s decline, situated at 1.35976.Moving Average: The falling 100-hour MA, currently hovering at 1.3599.A sustained break above this ceiling would likely trigger a move toward the 50% midpoint at 1.3620. Beyond that, the falling 200-hour MA at 1.3633 and a secondary swing area (1.3624 – 1.3631) act as the next major targets for buyers.The Bearish Counter-CaseIf the pattern of lower highs persists, look for a rotation back toward the session lows. Key support levels to watch include:Today’s Low: 1.3556.Yesterday’s Low: 1.3545.Weekly Floor: 1.35248.A break below the weekly low would be required to shift the technical bias from neutral to bearish.In the video above, Greg Michalowski of InvestingLive.com outlines in detail from a technical perspective as the price of USDCAD rises but runs into a cluster of technical targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A week after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, markets started to realize the conflict might drag on. On Monday morning, Brent crude briefly jumped above $113 per barrel, while S&P 500 futures opened deep in the red. The picture wasn’t much brighter elsewhere either — European and Asian stocks also suffered.The good news is that as the day went on, interventions helped push oil prices down to around $82 per barrel. The bad news is that most were only verbal, so the effect could be temporary. In fact, by the next day, Brent was trading above $90 per barrel again.Which of the proposed measures could realistically help keep oil prices down?Starting with the potential release by G7 countries of 300–400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, in theory, this could offset supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf — but only for two to three weeks. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted for longer, pressure on oil prices would quickly return.The problem is that the biggest holders of oil reserves among the G7 — the U.S., with about 415.4 million barrels in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (as of February 27), and Japan, with roughly 260 million barrels in government reserves (as of the end of December) — might be reluctant to release large amounts of oil just to temporarily bring down global prices. There’s no guarantee that prices wouldn’t quickly surge again.So, while such a move could help stabilize prices in the short term, its effect would likely be temporary. As for the U.S. potentially easing sanctions to stabilize the oil market, there have already been some steps in that direction. On March 5, the U.S. Treasury announced a 30-day waiver allowing Indian refineries to purchase Russian oil, which could help ease part of the supply deficit. That said, it’s important to remember that Russia is still operating in a wartime environment, and its refineries are frequently targeted by drone attacks, which creates additional uncertainty around supply.Venezuelan oil could also help, but export volumes there remain limited, largely due to technical and infrastructure constraints.So the tools are there, but their effectiveness remains uncertain. The best way to bring oil prices down would, of course, be an end to the conflict. And after Donald Trump said on Monday that things are moving in that direction, although perhaps not this week, it seems like things are going in that direction, but later, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps dismissed the claim that the conflict is nearing an end.The conclusion? Also, so far we’ve seen just verbal interventions, but they suggest the U.S. is still worried about high oil prices and will try to keep them in check. So, bull traders in oil should be cautious. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Saudi Arabia sharply increased oil production in February before the Iran war, as part of a 'contingency' plan ahead of strikes. Production in the oil superpower rose to 10.882 million barrels per day compared to 10.10 mbpd in January.That boosted overall OPEC+ crude output to 42.72 mbpd, up 445,000 barrels per day.A statement from OPEC said the current geopolitical developments require close monitoring and their impact, if any, on its global economic growth forecast may be too early to determine.In terms of forecasts, OPEC left demand growth for 2026 and 2027 unchanged. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The initial market reaction has been fairly muted. U.S. stocks are modestly lower, Treasury yields are edging higher, and the USD is firmer, but the overall moves remain relatively limited.Looking at the equity market, futures are pointing to a softer open, with the Dow down about 150 points, the S&P 500 lower by roughly 11.5 points, and the NASDAQ off around 33 points. Earlier in the pre-market session (around 7:15 AM ET), U.S. equities were actually trading marginally higher before giving back those gains.In the bond market, Treasury yields are ticking slightly higher, with the 10-year yield up about 0.3 basis points to 4.179%. More broadly, the 10-year has been trading comfortably within a 4.00%–4.25% range, a band that traders appear increasingly comfortable with as they wait for a stronger fundamental catalyst to push yields decisively in one direction. For now, the CPI report has done little to disturb that status quo.Turning to the major currency pairs, the EURUSD remains under pressure, trading below its 100-hour moving average at 1.15979 after dipping to a session low near 1.1588. If the pair can stay below the 1.1600 level, sellers may keep the pressure on, with the next downside target near 1.1576, followed by stronger support in the 1.1542–1.1554 area.For the GBPUSD, the 200-day moving average at 1.34413 continues to act as key resistance. The price needs to break and hold above that level to give buyers greater confidence and shift the bias more firmly to the upside. On the downside, the pair is currently trading near 1.3413, still above both the session low and the 100-day moving average at 1.33957. Just below that, the converging 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.3386 represent important support. A move below those levels would increase the bearish bias.The USDJPY is stretching higher and looks toward the high from Monday at 158.89. That level was near a high goign back to January 2025. Get above those levels and the high for the year at 158.447 will be eyed.The latest U.S. CPI report came in largely in line with expectations across the board, resulting in little market reaction. Headline CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, matching forecasts and slightly above the prior 0.2% increase, while the year-over-year rate held steady at 2.4%. Core CPI also met expectations, rising 0.2% on the month after 0.3% previously, with the year-over-year core rate unchanged at 2.5%, exactly as expected. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased 0.47% versus 0.37% in the prior month. Meanwhile, real weekly earnings edged up just 0.1%, slowing from the 0.5% gain in the previous report, indicating only modest improvement in purchasing power. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.4% y/yCPI +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expectedPrior +0.2% m/mNon-seasonally adjusted, unrounded +0.47% vs +0.37% priorCore CPI 2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expectedPrior core 2.5%Core CPI +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedPrior core +0.3%Real weekly earnings +0.1% vs +0.5% priorCPI Supercore M/M +0.350% vs +0.593% priorCPI Supercore Y/Y 2.746% vs 2.671% priorThis report is in-line with estimates right down the list so it's no surprise that it's not making waves in the market. The intriguing report will be the March one as it will include the Iran war price spike.The other notable point here is that the very favorable data in the October report due to the govt shutdown unwinds after March.Here are some hot spots:Restaurants +3.9%Medical care +4.1%Electricity +4.8%Utility gas +10.9%The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. It is one of the most widely followed measures of U.S. inflation.In January 2026, the CPI for All Urban Consumers rose 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, while the year-over-year rate came in at 2.4 percent — a meaningful deceleration from the 2.7 percent annual pace recorded in December 2025. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 2.5 percent year over year, its lowest reading since April 2021. Shelter costs, which make up more than a third of the index, rose just 0.2 percent for the month but remained the largest single contributor to headline inflation. Food prices edged up 0.2 percent, while energy declined 1.5 percent.The January report was released on February 13, slightly later than originally scheduled due to disruptions from a partial government shutdown. Economists have noted that data from roughly December 2025 through April 2026 may carry a mild downward bias, because the 43-day shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting October 2025 price data, forcing the agency to rely on carry-forward estimates for that period.The Federal Reserve, which had cut rates three consecutive times in late 2025, held steady at its January meeting. While the cooler-than-expected CPI print offered some encouragement, inflation remained above the Fed's 2 percent target, keeping markets focused on the trajectory of monetary policy heading into spring. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

U.S. stocks are trading marginally higher at the start of the North American session, while bond yields and crude oil prices are also edging higher as markets position ahead of key inflation data.At 8:30 AM ET, the market will get the latest reading on U.S. CPI, one of the most closely watched inflation indicators. Expectations are for the headline CPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month, while core CPI—excluding food and energy—is expected to increase 0.3%.Even with the expected modest monthly gains, the year-over-year inflation measures remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and progress toward that goal has been slow and uneven. As a result, today’s report will be closely scrutinized for signs of whether inflation pressures are continuing to cool or proving more persistent, which could influence expectations for the path of Fed policy going forward.Keep in mind that CPI has remained above the Fed’s 2% target since April 2021, initially driven by the supply shocks that followed the COVID pandemic. While many of those disruptions have eased, inflation has proven stubborn. More recently, factors such as tariffs and immigration policies that affect labor supply in sectors like agriculture and food production have contributed to keeping price pressures elevated. Arguably, inflation would need to run below 2% for a period of time to offset the cumulative price increases consumers have faced since 2021.The good news is that real wages on a year-over-year basis have been positive since mid-2023, running at roughly +1%, which means wage gains are finally outpacing inflation again. However, the stretch from 2021 through much of 2023 was painful for many households, with real wages frequently running −2% or worse, eroding purchasing power. That dynamic helped reinforce what many describe as a “K-shaped economy,” where lower- and middle-income households feel the squeeze from higher prices, while higher-income households—often with stronger wage growth and asset gains—are better positioned to absorb the inflation shock.In the video above, Greg Michalowski of InvestingLive.com takes a technical look at the market ahead of the CPI release. He outlines the current bias, key risk levels, and potential targets for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, explaining the technical reasons behind those levels and why traders should be paying attention to them.In markets that are often volatile and heavily influenced by news headlines, having clearly defined bias, risk, and target levels can help traders stay disciplined. When the road gets bumpy around major economic releases like CPI, those technical guideposts can help smooth the path and keep traders focused on the levels that matter most. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.1%HICP +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y prelimPrior +2.1%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

We must remain calm amid Iran crisisThe conflict has raised uncertaintyLikely to see slightly higher inflation, less growth due to the conflictBut inflation in France will remain low, don't see stagflation happeningDo not expect a rate hike at the ECB meeting next weekMeanwhile, we're also hearing from ECB policymaker Nagel in saying that:Risk of higher inflation has risen, economic outlook has deterioratedECB will act decisively if energy spike feeds into durably higher inflationBut for now, a wait-and-see approach is appropriateLatest US statements on Iran conflict offer cause for hopeI don't think the remarks here are of any surprises really. It's been less than two weeks since the Middle East conflict started. And it remains to be seen how things might change in the weeks/months ahead. The initial spike in oil prices on Monday has also faded, thus affording major central banks some breathing room in dealing with scrutiny on inflation for now.As mentioned earlier here, it will be a case of central banks playing down any outsized reaction next week. Policymakers love optionality and flexibility, so it would be poor form to rush into anything and jump to conclusions on the inflation outlook for the time being. They will continue to adopt a more gradual and wait-and-see approach, as Nagel mentioned.That being said, the last thing they want is also for a repeat of the 2021-22 "transitory" fiasco. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. That keeps near key near-term levels, with the 200-hour moving average seen at 1.1645 currently. As mentioned yesterday, the currency pair is now caught in between that and its 100-hour moving average of 1.1599 at the moment. That is seeing price action get more locked in awaiting further changes in trading sentiment.The dollar has weakened back as oil prices come off the boil. But after the Washington fiasco yesterday, traders are still reserving some caution amid trying to decipher the lies and deception in the headlines.The hourly chart better exemplifies the state of play in EUR/USD at the moment after the nudge higher late on Monday:As such, the option expiries above could act alongside the 200-hour moving average to keep price action more limited to the upside in European morning trade later. That unless dollar flows start to act up again as markets react to the US-Iran conflict. In that lieu, it's all on prices as that is the tail wagging the dog in markets currently.So, just be wary of that as we look to the session ahead.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Let's not beat around the bush here. As inflation fears come back into the picture, suddenly major central banks have a challenge up ahead of them in the coming weeks/months. And there will be plenty of watchful eyes and scrutiny on them next week, with a full slate on the agenda. The full list can be found below:Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting decision - 17 MarchBank of Canada meeting (BOC) decision - 18 MarchFederal Reserve (Fed) FOMC meeting decision - 18 MarchBank of Japan (BOJ) meeting decision - 19 MarchSwiss National Bank (SNB) meeting decision - 19 MarchBank of England (BOE) meeting decision - 19 MarchEuropean Central Bank (ECB) meeting decision - 19 MarchYup, the only one missing is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand - who will only return to the fray on 8 April next. That aside, it is going to be a jam-packed three days in the week ahead.That being said, there might not be too much drama in terms of rate decisions. The only central bank that could take action is arguably the RBA. Deputy governor Hauser's remarks here yesterday have certainly reignited the debate for a potential rate hike next week.And we're starting to see market pricing reflect that sentiment as well. The odds of a rate hike next week were at ~35% before he spoke but have jumped up now to ~71%. And that is also seeing the aussie dollar surge higher, with AUD/USD breaking new ground this week in a jump to 0.7170 currently.The US-Iran conflict is threatening stronger price pressures at a time when the RBA is already struggling to pin down inflation. So, policymakers might feel the need to get ahead of the curve.Of note, NAB, Deutsche, and Morgan Stanley have all shifted their calls and are penciling in a rate hike for next week now.So, that will be a key decision to watch.As for the other major central banks, the rate decisions will be less interesting with no changes expected across the board. The only main thing to watch will be how policymakers respond to possibly higher inflation to come.Will they revert back to what we saw back in 2021-22 in dismissing it all as "transitory"? That was a mistake at the time, so it will be interesting to see if history will repeat itself.But considering that we're just less than two weeks into the conflict, I would expect central banks to play for flexibility. And that means reaffirming a wait-and-see approach and not jumping to conclusions on how price developments are going to change. They will definitely acknowledge the risks of higher oil prices and inflation to come, but they won't prematurely commit to anything so early on. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Dive right into my Nasdaq technical analysis video from today (11 March, 2026)The recent market action from investingLive.com suggests that while the "bearish tilt" felt heavy for a moment, the bulls might just be pulling a classic "fakie" recovery. Here is the fun recap of what went down:1. Oracle’s Cloud Nine MomentWhile the broader market was feeling the heat, Oracle smashed Q3 estimates, proving that the AI infrastructure build-out is still very much a thing.The Flex: Revenue hit $17.19B, and Larry Ellison’s crew raised their total revenue outlook to a staggering $90B.The Backlog: Their remaining performance obligations (RPO) ballooned to $553B—up from $130B just a year ago.The Sentiment: This massive cloud growth is acting as a safety net for tech-heavy sentiment, keeping the AI dream alive even when the charts get shaky.2. The Bearish Tilt: Technical Head-Fakes?Just as things were looking sunny, technical analysts spotted a Nasdaq drop below the 100-hour Moving Average.The Snag: The index hit a session high of 22,906 but got rejected right at the 200-hour moving average.The Geopolitical Jab: News of potential mines in the Strait of Hormuz spooked traders, briefly shifting the control to the sellers.The Verdict: Staying below 22,702 keeps things "tilted" to the downside, but the market seems to be fighting tooth and nail to keep that from becoming a full-blown slide.3. The Great Rebound: Oil and OptimismIf the bearish tilt was a "fakie," the Nasdaq rebound was the counter-punch.The Catalyst: Oil prices cooled off after the G7 considered releasing emergency reserves.The Trump Factor: Sentiment took a sharp turn for the better after Donald Trump suggested the war could end soon, leading traders to hunt for "dip-buying opportunities."What’s Next? With the US CPI report and Jobless Claims on the horizon, the market is caught between war headlines and economic data. Analysts are already whispering about a potential run back to all-time highs if de-escalation holds.The takeaway? The bearish tilt was real, but thanks to Oracle’s cloud muscle and some geopolitical hopium, the "fakie" is currently in full effect. Keep an eye on that 200-hour MA; if we break it, the bears might officially be back in hibernation.Nasdaq technical analysis today: Dip buyers defend support as bulls target 25,650Nasdaq technical analysis today points to a market that is still leaning bullish after Monday's sharp shakeout. Dip buyers stepped in quickly, reclaimed important territory, and pushed price back into a stronger position on the daily chart.See the YouTube video here - Nasdaq technical analysis by Itai Levitan on investingLive.com Youtube Channel, March 11, 2026.The first major feature on the chart is the yellow price channel. It is not perfectly clean, because markets often produce wicks and short-lived overshoots, but the overall structure still holds. The upper and lower boundaries continue to frame price action well, and there is also a midline inside the channel that has started to matter more. That middle area has already produced several reactions and now stands out as a near-term resistance zone.The second key tool is the volume profile, anchored from the contract rollover date. That matters because it helps identify where the market has done the most business during this phase. In simple terms, it highlights where buyers and sellers have found the most agreement on price.The biggest node on that profile is the point of control, or POC, near 24,800. That is an important technical level because it represents the price area with the heaviest participation in this range. Right now, Nasdaq is trading above that POC, which is a constructive signal for bulls.Price is also still inside the value area, marked by the two blue dotted lines. When a market is accepted back into value after a sharp dip, it often raises the probability of a move toward the upper end of that range. In this case, that puts roughly 25,650 into focus, along with the February 25 and February 26 highs.That is one of the main reasons Monday's dip deserves attention.The market sold off sharply during the shakeout tied to oil-price volatility, but the weakness did not last long. Buyers came in quickly and pushed price back into the value area. That kind of response is more bullish than bearish, especially when it happens around important structure rather than in the middle of a random move.Another level to watch is the 20-day exponential moving average, or EMA 20, which is now near 25,050. This is not as important as the POC, but it can still act as a useful short-term support reference. If Nasdaq keeps holding above that moving average, it gives bulls another layer of support beneath the market.For traders looking for a stronger technical support level that may be less vulnerable to short-term noise, the POC around 24,800 remains the more important line on the chart.Key Nasdaq levels to watch this weekOn the upside, 25,650 is the area to watch. That is the upper part of value and also sits near recent highs that bulls may want to challenge.On the downside, 25,050 is the first closer support via the EMA 20, while the 24,800 area is the more meaningful structural support through the POC.As long as price remains above those areas and continues to hold inside the value area, the technical picture stays more supportive for bulls than bears.Nasdaq outlook after the dip was boughtFor now, the message from the daily chart is fairly straightforward. The dip was bought, value was reclaimed, and bulls still hold the stronger technical posture.That does not guarantee an upside breakout this week. Markets can still stall, consolidate, or shake out weak hands again. But at this stage, the chart has not given bears enough evidence to confidently press the short side.If Nasdaq continues to hold above the EMA 20 and the POC, a move toward 25,650 becomes increasingly realistic. If price starts getting rejected again and loses those support zones, then the rebound may need more time to repair before another meaningful push higher.Nasdaq options sentiment: weak bullish tilt, but not clean buyer controlUsing the investingLive protected newsroom framing, this reads as a Bias Score of +1, which is a weak bullish tilt rather than a strong control signal.So we look at QQQM (Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF) is a low-cost exchange-traded fund designed for long-term investors to track the NASDAQ-100 Index. It represents the Nasdaq by holding the same 100 largest non-financial, technology-heavy companies as QQQ, but with a lower expense ratio.Th options tape in QQQM leaned positive on March 10, with net option delta volume at +3,822 and a bullish-to-bearish imbalance of roughly 71.8% to 28.2%, but the signal quality was limited.The main caveat is participation quality. The activity appears to be driven mostly by small and retail traders, not larger institutional-sized flow, and total impact was light at just 0.2% of stock volume. That makes this more of a sentiment hint than a clean control read. Price was also still trading below VWAP at $250.97, so the bullish flow did not yet have proper confirmation from the underlying tape.There is also a broader divergence that keeps the read cautious. While QQQM's own options delta showed +$961K, the dashboard showed constituent delta at -$235.2M, leaving a net read of about -$234.2M across the broader complex. In practical terms, the bullish tilt improves only if price can reclaim and hold above $250.97, then push through the $251.26-$251.36 weighted flow zone. Below $250.27, the setup remains fragile, and a break under $249.28 would largely invalidate the bullish lean.Last tip regarding today's Nasdaq analysis? I would watch if and how Oracle (ticker ORCL), that reported last night and is up an impressive 8.7%, will hold that post earnings gain, as a little but effective barometer of the Nasdaq market.Follow investingLive.com for more Nasdaq technical analysis, market insights, and advanced order flow coverage. Trade at your own risk. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The survey sees all 64 economists anticipating that the BOJ will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% next week. Meanwhile, roughly 60% (37 out of 62 economists) see the Japanese central bank making a move to raise the policy rate to 1.00% by end-June. That is not too much changed from the ~58% in the February poll.Of the 44 economists who specified a timeline for the next rate hike, June was the top pick at ~32%. July got ~30% of the vote and ~27% stuck to April for the next move by the BOJ.As things stand, market pricing does concur with what we're seeing for the above somewhat. However, it does at least follow for what to expect for next week. Traders are pricing in ~94% odds of no change to the policy rate on 19 March with odds of a move in April at around ~48%. That then rises to nearly 80% for a move in June instead.The survey median forecasts also show that the BOJ is to raise interest rates to 1.25% by Q1 2027 and then 1.50% by Q1 2028.At the balance, it seems that most economists don't see Takaichi's plant of two new BOJ board members as being impediments to further policy tightening. But from the survey response, it seems that it is a bit of a close call but definitely not disheartening at least.18 of 31 economists say that the appointments of Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato would not hinder the delivery of future rate hikes. Mizuho Securities notes that:"Since the share of 'reflationists' among the nine board members is not high, their voting behaviour and other actions are likely to have only a limited direct impact on policy decisions."It's a fair take but we will only get a better idea once they come in and how that might influence other members on the board. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Container ship damaged off UAE, hit by suspected projectile near Strait of HormuzWestpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and MayAustralian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next weekWeak yen and oil shock cloud Japan inflation outlook -- PPI recapPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8917 (vs. estimate at 6.8824)Goldman Sachs February CPI preview signals gradual inflation slowdown, not everyone agreesThe IEA is weighing a record oil reserve release to calm markets after Hormuz disruptionJapanese wholesale prices +2.0% y/y in February (2.1% expected)ICYMI: Debate grows over political influence on Bank of Japan policyICYMI: RBA’s Hauser warns oil price risks could intensify rate rise debate (March 17 live)US destroys 16 Iranian mine vessels and warns over Strait of Hormuz, more detailTrump thanks India Reliance for investment in new Texas refinery projectG7 to discuss energy coordination as Mid East tensions lift oil prices: 1400 GMT WednesdayNorth Korea tests cruise missile for destroyer and backs Iran (KJU attention seeking)Lagarde says eurozone not in stagflation as ECB keeps rate path uncertainUS stocks mixed. NASDAQ closes marginally higher. The S&P marginally lower.investingLive Americas market news wrap: A complete mess in oil. Other markets tune outOracle beats Q3 estimates as cloud revenue growth drives $90B outlook (shares jump)Summary:Oil markets remained in focus as the U.S. said it eliminated 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.A Wall Street Journal report said the IEA has proposed the largest-ever release of strategic oil reserves, with countries to decide today.The G7 will meet at 1400 GMT to discuss energy coordination amid the Middle East conflict.Japan signalled it could release oil reserves independently if needed, while February PPI data came in softer.RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s hawkish remarks yesterday triggered a wave of forecasts for a March 17 rate hike.AUD/USD rose to levels last seen in mid-2022, while Asian equities rallied, with the Nikkei above 55,500.Oil markets remained a key focus during the Asia session as developments around the Strait of Hormuz and emergency energy policy discussions helped drive sentiment.The U.S. military said it had eliminated 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the security risks facing one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. A Wall Street Journal report said the International Energy Agency has proposed the largest-ever coordinated release of strategic oil reserves to help stabilise crude prices. Countries are expected to decide later today whether to proceed with the release.Energy security will also be on the agenda at the G7 meeting scheduled for 1400 GMT, where leaders are set to discuss potential coordination measures. Oil prices have eased somewhat following these developments.Central bank developments also drew attention in the region. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser delivered remarks on a podcast Tuesday that were interpreted as notably hawkish just one week ahead of the next Reserve Bank policy meeting. His comments have prompted a cascade of analyst forecasts for a March 17 rate hike.Westpac, NAB, Citi and Deutsche Bank now expect the RBA to raise rates in both March and May, while Bank of America, UBS and Capital Economics forecast a hike at next week’s meeting. The shift in expectations helped push AUD/USD to levels last seen in mid-2022.In Japan, Trade Minister Akazawa said the government could release oil reserves independently if necessary and would not rule out any measures to ensure energy stability. Japan also released February producer price data, which showed a modest easing in wholesale inflation y/y and a surprise monthly deflation, supporting expectations for the Bank of Japan to hold off on policy normalisation at next week’s meeting.Regional equities were firm. China’s new energy sector climbed more than 3%, while Japan’s Nikkei rose over 2%, trading above the 55,500 level. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A container ship was damaged by a suspected projectile near the Strait of Hormuz as regional conflict raises risks to global shipping.Summary:A container vessel reported damage from a suspected projectile near the Strait of Hormuz.The incident occurred 25 nautical miles northwest of Ras Al Khaimah in the UAE, according to UKMTO.The extent of the damage remains under investigation, though all crew members are safe.The alert comes amid escalating conflict involving Iran and Western forces that has threatened shipping in the region.The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments, making it one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.A container vessel has reported sustaining damage from a suspected projectile near the United Arab Emirates as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten maritime traffic through one of the world’s most important shipping corridors.The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said it received a report of an incident roughly 25 nautical miles northwest of Ras Al Khaimah, a coastal emirate in the UAE located close to the Strait of Hormuz.According to the report, the master of a container ship said the vessel had been struck by what was described as a suspected but unidentified projectile. The extent of the damage remains unclear and is currently under investigation, though UKMTO said all crew members are safe.UKMTO is a British-run maritime monitoring organisation based in Bahrain that serves as a central reporting point for commercial vessels operating in the Middle East. It issues security alerts and coordinates information on potential threats to shipping across key waterways including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz.The latest incident comes during a period of heightened tension in the region following the escalation of conflict involving Iran and Western allies. In recent weeks, military strikes and retaliatory actions linked to the confrontation have raised fears that Tehran or allied groups could target shipping passing through the Gulf.The Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, is widely regarded as one of the most strategically sensitive maritime choke points in the global energy system. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and a significant share of global liquefied natural gas exports pass through the narrow channel each day.Any disruption to shipping through the strait can have immediate repercussions for global energy markets and supply chains.Security incidents in the area have periodically intensified during periods of geopolitical tension. Tankers and cargo vessels have previously been targeted by drones, mines and missile strikes during past confrontations involving Iran and Western powers.While details of the latest incident remain limited, it is likely to heighten concerns among shipping operators and energy markets about the risk of further disruptions to maritime traffic in the Gulf. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Westpac now expects the RBA to hike rates in both March and May as policymakers respond to oil-driven inflation risks.Summary:Westpac now expects the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25bp in both March and May, revising its earlier forecast of a single hike.The projected terminal rate is now 4.35% under the bank’s updated outlook.The change reflects the inflationary impact of higher oil prices and signals from the RBA that it may act to prevent inflation expectations from rising.Westpac says a single hike remains possible, particularly if volatility escalates or the oil shock proves temporary.The bank still expects rate cuts to begin in late 2027 as inflation returns toward the target midpoint.Westpac has revised its outlook for Reserve Bank of Australia policy, now expecting the central bank to deliver two rate hikes in the coming months as policymakers respond to rising inflation risks linked to higher oil prices.In a research note, the bank said it now expects the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points in both March and May, a shift from its earlier forecast that anticipated a single increase in May with additional tightening only as a possibility.Under the revised outlook, the RBA’s policy rate would reach a peak of 4.35%, reflecting a more proactive response to the latest inflation developments.The change in forecast follows a reassessment of the likely impact of the recent surge in oil prices stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While Westpac believes the effect on headline inflation will likely prove significant but temporary, it argues the central bank may still feel compelled to act in order to prevent inflation expectations from drifting higher.According to the bank, recent communication from the RBA RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a "genuine challenge"ICYMI: RBA’s Hauser warns oil price risks could intensify rate rise debate (March 17 live)has reinforced the view that policymakers remain cautious about the economy’s supply-side capacity. Even after the latest national accounts data, which included revisions, softer consumption indicators and more benign unit labour cost readings, the central bank has continued to emphasise concerns about limited spare capacity.That stance suggests the RBA may be inclined to respond pre-emptively to an inflation shock, even if it is driven primarily by energy prices.Westpac also noted that the RBA has signalled a willingness to react to headline inflation spikes to guard against the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored, despite the fact that expectations have remained relatively stable through previous shocks.The bank acknowledged there are still arguments for the RBA to delay action until May. The oil shock may fade quickly, and financial markets could become more volatile if geopolitical tensions escalate further. As a result, a split vote at the March policy meeting is possible, with some policymakers preferring to wait for additional data.However, Westpac said delaying a response is no longer its central scenario.The bank also highlighted that its longer-term outlook remains broadly unchanged. It expects underlying inflation to move back toward the 2.5% midpoint of the RBA’s target band by late next year, alongside a gradual increase in unemployment and clearer evidence that supply capacity growth is improving.As a result, Westpac anticipates that the current restrictive policy stance will eventually need to be unwound, though the timing of those cuts has shifted slightly. It now expects easing to begin in November and December 2027, followed by further cuts in February 2028.The bank added that more frequent adjustments to policy may reflect recent changes to the RBA’s operating framework, including refinements to its mandate and a revised composition of the Monetary Policy Board that may be more comfortable with actively adjusting policy to keep inflation close to the target midpoint.---WPAC not the only change of call:Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next weekRBA next meet March 16 and 17. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Hauser’s hawkish inflation warnings have pushed markets toward expecting a possible RBA rate hike as soon as the March meeting.RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a "genuine challenge"ICYMI: RBA’s Hauser warns oil price risks could intensify rate rise debate (March 17 live)Summary:RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned oil price shocks pose upside risks to inflation amid uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict.He said there will be “genuine policy debate” at the next RBA board meeting, with arguments on both sides.Market pricing now implies roughly a 70% chance of a rate hike at the March 17 meeting.Westpac, NAB, Citi and Deutsche Bank now expect hikes in March and May.Bank of America, UBS and Capital Economics also forecast a hike at next week’s meeting.Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s latest remarks have sharpened expectations that the central bank’s upcoming policy meeting could be more consequential than previously assumed, with markets now increasingly pricing in the possibility of a near-term rate hike.Speaking on Tuesday, Hauser highlighted the inflation risks stemming from surging oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, while emphasising that the central bank’s response will depend on how persistent the shock proves to be.“Our response depends on the size and persistence of the price shock,” he said, noting that the outlook remains uncertain given rapidly evolving geopolitical developments.Despite that uncertainty, Hauser’s tone underscored the RBA’s continued focus on preventing inflation expectations from becoming unanchored. He warned that failing to act decisively if inflation proves persistent would risk repeating the damaging experience of the recent inflation surge.“If we fail to act decisively enough to prevent inflation staying high or even rising and expectations of inflation disanchor… it will be bad for everyone,” he said, describing inflation as “toxic” for the economy.Hauser also pointed to signs that Australia’s economy is operating close to its limits, noting that recent data has reinforced the view that spare capacity in the economy is limited. Annual GDP growth of 2.6% exceeds the RBA’s estimate of roughly 2% sustainable growth, suggesting demand may still be running ahead of the economy’s underlying capacity.While he acknowledged some areas of the economy have been softer — particularly household consumption — Hauser said the broader economic picture remains solid.“The Australian economy in many ways is in good shape,” he said.The remarks have triggered a noticeable shift in market expectations around the RBA’s next move. Interest-rate markets now imply roughly a 70% probability of a rate hike at the March 17 policy meeting, compared with far lower odds before Hauser’s comments.Several major banks have also adjusted their forecasts. Westpac, National Australia Bank, Citi and Deutsche Bank now expect the RBA to deliver rate hikes in both March and May. Meanwhile, Bank of America, UBS and Capital Economics have recently moved to predict a rate increase at next week’s meeting.Before the latest developments, many analysts had expected the RBA to remain on hold in March, partly because policymakers had emphasised the importance of monitoring further inflation data before adjusting policy.However, the sharp rise in global oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict has complicated that outlook. Higher energy costs pose a clear upside risk to inflation, though Hauser noted that Australia’s status as a net energy exporter could provide some offsetting support to economic activity through stronger export demand.With the RBA’s next decision approaching, policymakers now appear to face a delicate balancing act between managing geopolitical inflation risks and ensuring monetary policy remains appropriately calibrated to domestic economic conditions. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s wholesale inflation cooled in February but rising oil prices from the Iran conflict threaten to push price pressures higher again.Summary:Japan’s corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 2.0% y/y in February, below the 2.1% forecast.Wholesale inflation slowed from January’s 2.3% rise, marking a third straight month of easing.Government fuel subsidies helped offset rising commodity costs, cushioning price pressures.Import prices jumped 2.8% y/y, the fastest pace since July 2024, reflecting a weaker yen.Economists warn the Middle East oil shock could soon push wholesale inflation higher again.Japan’s wholesale inflation slowed for a third consecutive month in February as government fuel subsidies helped cushion companies from rising commodity costs, though economists warn the respite could prove temporary amid surging oil prices linked to Middle East tensions.Data released Wednesday showed the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the prices companies charge one another for goods and services, rose 2.0% from a year earlier, slowing from 2.3% in January and coming in slightly below the 2.1% median forecast.The moderation in wholesale inflation suggests that government policies aimed at stabilising energy costs have helped dampen some of the impact from higher global commodity prices.However, the figures largely pre-date the escalation of conflict involving Iran that began on February 28, meaning the data do not fully capture the inflationary effects of the latest surge in oil prices.A Bank of Japan official noted that even before the latest geopolitical developments, price pressures were building in some areas, including a rise in nonferrous metal prices driven by geopolitical risk.At the same time, Japan’s yen-based import price index rose 2.8% in February from a year earlier, accelerating from a revised 0.7% increase in January and marking the strongest gain since July 2024. The rise reflects the continued weakness of the yen, which increases the cost of imported goods and raw materials.Economists say volatile energy markets could soon feed through to domestic prices with a lag.“Wholesale inflation is likely to re-accelerate as surging crude oil prices from the Middle East conflict push up fuel costs,” said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus. He added that the weak yen will also keep import costs elevated said Reuters. However, Koike said such price increases would largely reflect cost-push inflation, which may complicate the Bank of Japan’s policy decisions.“At least in the short run, it could serve as a hurdle for additional rate hikes by the BOJ, which focuses more on trend inflation,” he said.The data underscore the difficult balancing act facing the BOJ. The central bank ended more than a decade of ultra-loose policy in 2024 and has gradually raised interest rates since then, including a move in December that lifted the policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in roughly 30 years.Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled that the BOJ is prepared to tighten policy further if inflation stabilises around its 2% target, supported by stronger wage growth and domestic demand.But rising oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions risk creating a complicated mix of slower growth and higher costs, leaving policymakers weighing whether inflation pressures reflect durable demand or temporary external shocks.---Earlier:ICYMI: Debate grows over political influence on Bank of Japan policyBoJ meet next week: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.