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Oil has retraced 50% of the move up from the Iran War

Crude oil prices are down sharply today with the front contract trading at $94.40. That is down 16.43%. The low for the day reached $91.05. The high was $109.19. The markets are reacting to the "cease-fire" deal, but the price is still remains well above the pre-war levels near $61.45.Technically, the tumble to the downside has seen the price move back below its 100 hour moving average at $106.69, 200 hour moving average at $102.97, 38.2% retracement of the range since the February 26 low at $98.21, and briefly below the 50% midpoint of the same trading range at $91.65. The low for the day extended to $91.05 before bouncing back to the upside. The North American session low is stayed above the 50% level with a low of $91.84.With the price low is still $30 above the February 26 low just before the start of the war on February 28, there is room to roam to the downside if markets calm down. But will the markets come down? A move below the 50% midpoint would likely need a positive continuation of the cease-fire going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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U.S. Treasury auctions off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.282%

US treasury auctioned off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.282%High-yield 4.282%WI level at the time of the auction 4.280%Tail 0.2 basis points versus 6 auction average of 0.3 basis points.Bid to cover 2.43X versus average 2.49XDirects 23.9% versus average 19.2%.Indirect 65.3% versus average of 71.0%.Dealers 10.8% versus average of 9.8%Auction grade C+The results from the 10 year note auction were mixed. The domestic buyers outbid the international buyers, but the bid to cover and tail were near the averages seen over the last 6 auctions. Yesterday, the international buyers were strong bars of the 3 year coupon issue. Tomorrow the U.S. Treasury will auction off 30 year bonds completing the coupon auctions for the week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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The US treasury to auction off $39 billion of 10 year notes at 1 PM

The US Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10-year notes at 1 PM ET, with the long-end coming into the sale after a sharp rally in bonds that has pushed yields lower toward the 4.25% area. That move lower in yields—helped by easing geopolitical tensions and softer inflation expectations—could support demand, but traders will be watching closely after a softer result last month, where the auction tailed by 0.7 basis points and dealers were left holding a larger share. Auction metrics to watch (vs recent averages):High Yield: 4.217% prior vs 4.132% six-auction avg Tail: 0.7 bps prior vs 0.3 bps avg (weaker demand signal) Bid-to-Cover: 2.45x prior vs 2.49x avg Dealers: 12.7% prior vs 9.8% avg (higher = weaker demand) Directs: 12.8% prior vs 19.2% avg Indirects: 74.5% prior vs 71.0% avg (solid foreign demand) What to expect: The lower yield backdrop may help support demand relative to last month However, recent concerns about foreign demand and prior soft auctions keep risk tilted both ways A stop-through (strong demand) would likely push yields lower and support risk assets A tail (weak demand) could reverse today’s rally and send yields back higher quickly Bottom line: This is a key test for the long-end after a volatile stretch. With yields off the highs, the market will want to see improved demand vs last month’s weak auction to validate the move lower in rates This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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Hezbollah says Israel's attacks on Lebanon affirms its right to a response

Hezbollah is a saying that Israel's attacks on Lebanon affirms its right for a response, and only strengthens the groups determination to resist and confront the enemy. Israel is saying that they confirm the attack of a Hezbollah commander in BeirutHezbollah is a Lebanon-based Shiite political and militant group that operates as one of Iran’s closest and most important regional allies. Formed in the early 1980s, it functions both as a political party within Lebanon and as a powerful armed force, but its strength and reach are heavily supported by Iran. Tehran provides funding, weapons, and training—largely through its Revolutionary Guard—while also shaping Hezbollah’s ideological framework. As a result, Hezbollah is widely viewed as a key proxy for Iran, allowing it to project influence, apply military pressure—particularly against Israel—and expand its strategic footprint across the Middle East without direct engagement by Iranian forces.Air defense systems have been activated in Tehran.This ain't over, however, you have to wonder if Pres. Trump is looking to distance himself away from Israel and make it more of a Israel versus Iran confrontation once again.PS. Netanyahu to give remarks at 1:15 ET This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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Trump: There is only one list of agreed points and it will be discussed in private

It's not at all clear what the basis for the ceasefire is and what are the points that will lead to a lasting agreement. That seems to be angering Trump, who is lashing out at the media again. More importantly, he said that the peace will be discussed behind closed doors.Numerous Agreements, Lists, and Letters are being sent out by people that have absolutely nothing to do with the U.S.A. / Iran Negotiation, in many cases, they are total Fraudsters, Charlatans, and WORSE. They will be rapidly exposed after our Federal Investigation is completed. There is only one group of meaningful “POINTS” that are acceptable to the United States, and we will be discussing them behind closed doors during these Negotiations. These are the POINTS that are the basis on which we agreed to a CEASEFIRE. It is something that is reasonable, and can easily be dispensed with. It’s very much like Fake News CNN last night, headlining a “source” that had no power or authority to write a Letter claiming great authority. President DONALD J. TRUMPThe post is notable for a few reasons. First, Trump is clearly trying to reassert control over the narrative around the Iran talks, suggesting competing frameworks or terms have been floating around that don't reflect the administration's position. Second, and more importantly for markets, he struck a broadly constructive tone on the negotiations themselves — describing the US terms as "reasonable" and something that "can easily be dispensed with," which suggests he sees a path to a deal.The reference to a CNN report about an unauthorized letter adds another layer, but the key takeaway here is that Trump wants markets and counterparties to know there is one set of terms and they're his. The "ceasefire" language and the framing around behind-closed-doors discussions point to talks that are still on track from the US side, even as the information environment around them gets noisy.For traders, the read-through is modestly positive on the geopolitical risk front. Trump is policing the process and trying to keep it on track. That's a different posture than threatening to walk away, and it keeps the door open for progress in the near term.The S&P 500 previously trimmed its gain to 2.0% but it's back to 2.4%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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EURUSD consolidates near highs and holding above a cluster of technical levels

The EURUSD surged higher following the cease-fire announcement after the close yesterday, but the bullish move was already taking shape earlier in the session. The pair found support against an upward-sloping trendline, which gave buyers the foundation to push higher. That momentum carried the price above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, and through the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February 10 high, signaling a shift in near-term bias.The cease-fire headline added fuel to the move in early trading today, helping propel the pair above the March 23 high (1.1637) and the March 10 high (1.1644). From there, price extended into a key cluster of resistance levels, including the 50% retracement at 1.1667,200-day moving average at 1.1673, and the 100-day moving average at 1.1685. After breaking through that zone, the subsequent corrective pullback found support near the lower end of that cluster—an encouraging sign for buyers.The rally extended to a North American session high of 1.1721, just shy of a key swing area between 1.1726 and 1.1741, where sellers leaned and stalled the advance. That area is the next target followed by the 1.1765 – 1.1778 area on further upside momentum. The pair is now trading around the 100-day moving average (1.1685), making that level a critical short-term barometer.For buyers, staying above the 100-day MA keeps the upside bias firmly intact, with another run toward the 1.1726–1.1741 resistance zone likely. On the downside, a move back below the 50% retracement (1.1667) would signal a loss of momentum and could open the door for a deeper pullback toward the prior breakout area between 1.1637 and 1.1644. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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S&P and Nasdaq indices come off highs. 100 day MA remains unbroken. Ceasefire in jeopardy

The broader US stock indices remain solidly higher on the day, with the S&P up 2.10% and the NASDAQ up 2.54%, but the tone has shifted as upside momentum stalls and a tug-of-war develops between buyers and sellers. The rally ran into a technical ceiling ahead of the 100-day moving average in both indices, and that hesitation comes as cracks begin to show in the cease-fire narrative. Israel has continued strikes in Lebanon, arguing Hezbollah was not part of the agreement, while an Iranian security official warned those actions violate the cease-fire and could trigger a response. Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. indicated Iran’s proposed 10-point peace plan differs from what President Trump described as a workable framework. The market has avoided a worst-case escalation scenario for now, but confidence in a lasting cease-fire is clearly being tested.From a technical perspective, the S&P surged above its 200-day moving average (6654.85) and 50-day moving average (6767.66), but stalled just ahead of the 100-day moving average (6803.97), with a high of 6793.50. The pullback has since taken the price back below the 50-day MA (currently near 6754), which now becomes a key barometer. Holding below that level gives sellers a foothold, while a move back above—along with a break of the 100-day MA—would be needed to reassert buyer control.The NASDAQ is showing a similar dynamic. The index gapped above both its 200-day moving average (22379.93) and 50-day moving average (22539.23), but also stalled ahead of its 100-day moving average (22905.67), peaking at 22821.21. The current price near 22577 keeps it just above the 50-day MA, although the earlier dip to 22501.28 briefly broke below that level before buyers stepped back in.In both indices, buyers made the aggressive move higher, but the inability to break the 100-day moving averages has given sellers a level to lean against. That sets up a more balanced battle: stay above the 50-day MA keeps buyers in the game, while failure to reclaim the 100-day MA gives sellers the confidence to press back lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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The market's faith in a ceasefire is being tested

There is a big uncertainty about whether Lebanon is involved in the ceasefire and if Iran will accept it if not. There is a report that a ship was turned around due to strikes on Lebanon.At the same time, Iran itself seems to be violating the agreement as it has sent drone strikes today. That could just be due to the difficulty in relaying the news or due to rogue commanders but it's all looking precarious. With that, the S&P 500 trimmed its gain to 2.0% on the day.Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif posted:Violations of ceasefire have been reported at few places across the conflict zone which undermine the spirit of peace process. I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards peaceful settlement of the conflict.Turkey's Erdogan also evidently spoke with President Trump and afterwards the readout said that "no opportunity should be given for the ceasefire process to be sabotaged".Beyond the ceasefire itself, there's the thorny issue of the peace deal as it's not at all clear on what the sides have agreed to, at least publicly. It will likely take far more than 2 weeks to get a definitive deal and Trump's habit of threats and brinkmanship make for a precarious dynamic.Ultimately, I have to believe there will be a deal because the closure of Hormuz was unpopular in the US, along with the spike in gasoline prices. It's also not clear that the US had the will or the means to permanently re-open the Strait.So the bombs have stopped flying in the Gulf region but the headache hasn't gone away. That makes it tough to hold any conviction in a positive scenario and why some of the biggest gainers at the start of the day have faded.I think messages around Lebanon are worth watching carefully but I also have doubts that's truly a red line for Iran.Looking ahead, the White House is holding a press briefing at 1 pm. The New York Times writes that a White House official said that the 10-point peace plan that Iran publicly released on Wednesday differs from the plan that Trump said was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” The official declined to elaborate on the differences but said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was expected to clarify today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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Tech sector rallies while energy stocks stumble: Navigating today’s diverse market landscape

Sector OverviewThe technology sector emerged as a standout today, driven by impressive performances in semiconductor stocks. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) rose by 2.07%, while Intel (INTC) outperformed with an impressive 6.43% jump. Another notable performer, Broadcom (AVGO), surged by 3.60%. This upward momentum suggests renewed investor confidence in tech’s growth potential.Meanwhile, the energy sector faced headwinds, dragging down major players such as Exxon Mobil (XOM), which saw a significant dip of 6.15%, and Chevron (CVX), down 5.60%. These declines indicate persisting vulnerabilities within the oil and gas industries.Market Mood and TrendsOverall, market sentiment leaned positive, buoyed by tech optimism. Investors appeared eager to capitalize on growth stocks, though cautious of the uncertain energy outlook. The mixed signals are reflective of wider economic concerns, particularly around inflation and geopolitical tensions affecting oil markets.Big Winners and Losers? Winners: In addition to tech stocks, financial companies like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) at 3.36% and Bank of America (BAC) at 2.75% enjoyed gains, benefiting from broader economic confidence.? Losers: Besides energy, the healthcare sector saw Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) dip slightly by 0.70%, possibly reflecting sector-specific uncertainties.Strategic RecommendationsGiven today’s dynamics, investors might consider amplifying their positions in tech, particularly semiconductors, as they display promising resilience and growth potential. Conversely, caution should be exercised within the energy sectors, given the current volatility. Incorporating diversified financial stocks, which are showing steady growth, may also provide stability. Keeping a close watch on geopolitical events influencing market sentiment, primarily within energy commodities, will be crucial for navigating the coming weeks.Explore more insights and real-time market data at InvestingLive.com to stay ahead of market trends ?. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

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The NZD is the biggest mover vs the USD. RBNZ keeps rates unchanged.

Toward the end of day yesterday, the NZDUSD wsa coiling near low levels (see post here). The price was above a lower upward sloping trend line, and below a downward sloping trend line. The subsequent move higher on the ceasefire headlines said the price above the swing low from March 23 at 0.5760, and above the swing highs from March 27 and April 1. Additional momentum to the price above the 38.2% retracement at 0.5835, and also a downward sloping trendline near the same level. Finally the 200 hour moving average was reached at 0.58498, but momentum faded with the high price extending to 0.5859 before rotating back to the downside. Traders are now watching the 30.2% retracement at 0.5835, and below that support near the 0.5814 level. If the price can hold those levels the buyers remain in firm control. Moving below and we could see a further retracement to the downside as buyers near the highs get more uncomfortable.Fundamentally, the The reserve Bank of New Zealand held its OCR at 2.25% as expected, signaling a cautious stance as near-term inflation is projected to rise while economic growth is expected to weaken. RBNZ Governor Breman said the decision to hold rates was unanimous and, while rate hikes were discussed, policymakers were not close to tightening and there was no strong support for a hike at this meeting. He noted that falling oil prices could push inflation forecasts higher, while tighter financial conditions are expected to modestly weigh on growth. Looking ahead, he kept optionality open, indicating that future rate hikes could come at every meeting or every second meeting, depending on how the data evolves, reinforcing a flexible, data-dependent policy path.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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Stopping war on all fronts including Lebanon was part of ceasefire -- Tasnim citing source

Lebanon is quickly becoming the biggest problem in ceasefire talks.Israeli top officials today said the ceasefire doesn't apply to Lebanon and backed that up with a huge wave of strikes, including targeting 100 locations in Beirut.Both France and Pakistan have said that Lebanon is part of the ceasefire but the US hasn't weighed in.The Tasnim report citing unnamed sources said Iran will withdraw from the agreement if the attack on Lebanon continues. A separate Press TV report says Iran will punish Iran for attacks against Hezbollah 'in violation of the ceasefire'.With the latest headlines, we are seeing some softening in stocks. The S&P 500 is up 149 poitns, or 2.26%, to 6767. Gold is notably eating into the post-deal pop. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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What's priced in for the Federal Reserve and ECB after the Iran ceasefire

The focus is hopefully going to shift back to the real economy now and that will include tomorrow's PCE report and Friday's CPI. During the time when the war dominated headlines, the news on the US economy was mostly good, highlighting that the economy was improving in February before bombs started falling.The big news today is the $19 decline in WTI crude oil prices, or 17.5%. That's a big retracement in inflation and a huge help for the Federal Reserve, which is now in a much better spot to 'look through' the energy price spike because it's now time-limited.Looking at the 2-year yield, we can see that it touched the lowest since March 18 today but it's still a long ways back down to the 3.4% pre-war zone. That's because the spike along and lost oil is going to make it difficult to get oil back to $60.Looking at Fed funds futures, the April 29 meeting isn't live and it's the same thing for the June 17 meeting. Those are the final two meetings with Jerome Powell as Chairman.Looking further out, the market is now pricing in 10.5 bps of easing this year, or a 42% chance of a cut. That's up from virtually nil last week.Shifting to Europe, the odds of a hike at the April 30 meeting have plunged to just 31.5% but that rises to 71.9% for June and 91% for September. Previously the market had priced in two rate hikes. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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USDCHF falls below the 100 day MA on the tumble lower

The USDCHF is extending to the downside, with price action breaking through a series of key technical levels that had previously acted as support. The pair has now moved below the 200-day moving average at 0.79428, the swing low from last week at 0.7903, and the 100-day moving average at 0.7888, and is probing below the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.7873. This step-by-step rotation lower reflects a market where sellers are increasingly taking control.That said, continuation is key. A sustained move below the 38.2% retracement and the 100-day moving average would add further confirmation to the bearish bias and give sellers more confidence to press the downside. If that happens, the next key target comes in near the 0.7830–0.7840 area, which is supported by prior swing levels on both the hourly and daily charts. A break below that zone—along with the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range at 0.78216—would strengthen the case for a deeper move lower.On the flip side, sellers still need to guard against a failed breakdown. A move back above the 100-day moving average (0.7888) and especially the 0.7903 swing low would start to erode downside momentum and could disappoint sellers who are leaning on those levels as risk-defining resistance.On the fundamental side, the SNB has made it clear it is not comfortable with excessive CHF strength, which is an important backdrop for this pair. The current move lower in USDCHF is more technically driven than a classic flight-to-safety bid into the franc, and that distinction matters. However, the CHF strength suggests the downside may have limits if policy concerns begin to weigh more heavily.That said, traders should stay focused on the levels. If the price starts to reverse and reclaim previously broken support levels, it would signal that sellers are losing momentum and could give buyers renewed confidence. Those broken levels become the barometer—stay below keeps sellers in control, but move back above starts to shift the bias.For now, however, the sellers remain firmly in control, with the technical breaks driving the price action. In the video above, I walk through these levels in detail and explain why they matter as key risk-defining areas for both buyers and sellers going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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Eurozone February PPI -0.7% vs -0.7% m/m expected

Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.8%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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Eurozone February retail sales -0.2% vs -0.2% m/m expected

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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UK March construction PMI 45.6 vs 43.7 expected

Prior 44.5The downturn in the UK construction sector continues in March, even if at a less marked pace than in February. Of note, residential work remained by far the weakest-performing category.However, the standout in the report was a rapid acceleration in input cost inflation. That is leading to companies seeing their operating margins come under considerable pressure. Of note, firms reported that the war in the Middle East had pushed up fuel, transportation and raw material prices.S&P Global notes that:"UK construction companies indicated a sustained downturn in business activity during March, led by another steep reduction in residential work. A degree of resilience continued in the commercial and civil engineering segments. There were some reports of a turnaround in infrastructure work, especially in the energy sector. "March data suggested a challenging near-term outlook for construction activity as total new orders decreased at one of the sharpest rates seen over the past six years. Survey respondents commented on fragile consumer confidence and delayed investment decisions in response to the outbreak of war in the Middle East. "Construction firms also signalled a recalibration of their output growth forecasts for the year ahead. The drop in confidence during March wiped out the steady improvements in business optimism reported since the Autumn Budget. Escalating inflationary pressures, gloomy domestic economic prospects and higher borrowing costs were widely cited concerns in March. "International shipping delays meant that supply chain performance deteriorated for the first time since last summer. Moreover, fuel surcharges and rising transport costs contributed to a surge in input cost inflation to its highest for more than three years. The month-onmonth acceleration in cost inflation since February was the largest recorded in nearly three decades of data collection." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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Hapag-Lloyd says there will still be no normal shipping network for another 6-8 weeks

Situation in the Middle East is still severely disrupting shipping and supply chainsHopefully the Strait of Hormuz will reopenAbout 1,000 ships are still stuck in the region, six of which are from Hapag-LlyodNone of our ships have passed through the Strait of HormuzThe extra costs per week due to the crisis are around $50 million to $60 millionWe have no choice but to pass on some of that to customersMiddle East situation remains very fluid at the momentEven though news of ceasefire is good, we won't have a normal network for at least another 6-8 weeksWe will open up for bookings into the Upper Gulf area hopefully fairly soonWhile markets are busy cheering on the ceasefire news, the reality of the situation on the ground is still filled with much uncertainty. And it definitely seems like a lot of commercial vessels will still be guarded in wanting to try their luck in passing through the Strait of Hormuz at this point in time.As mentioned before, any reopening is going to be a slow trickle rather than the floodgates being opened and a rush comes in. We might juts see an uptick from 6-7 vessels per day to maybe something between 10-20 vessels. And if so, that is a far cry from the usual roughly 120-130 vessels that passes through the strait on a daily basis before the conflict began.For now, the ceasefire news is the best markets can hope for in terms of buying time for added relief. However, that seems to be exactly what it is. Just to buy time so that hopefully more positive news can come in eventually.But until then, the risk is always going to be there as the strait remains in de facto or partial closure. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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Oil prices dive after US-Iran ceasefire agreement; focus turns to Friday's negotiations

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices dived today after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The ceasefire included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as condition. The discussions will begin on Friday in Islamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. There’s still a risk that the war could restart any time as the US and Iran haven’t officially ended the hostilities. Nonetheless, the bias has now turned bearish for crude oil given Iran’s acceptance of the ceasefire despite being against it for a long time. This will likely keep expectations positive for the negotiations.It goes without saying that if the negotiations fail and the conflict resumes, oil prices will quickly rise back to pre-ceasefire levels and might even extend into new highs. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil plummeted into the 93.00 support zone before pulling back a bit. That’s where the buyers stepped back in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into new lows.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price rejected several times the upper bound of the channel and eventually dropped quickly to the bottom trendline following the ceasefire announcement. Again, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support and the lower bound of the channel to position for a rally back into the top trendline, while the sellers will look for a break lower to extend the drop into new lows.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the price is trading at the lower bound of the average daily range for today. In such instances, we can generally see some consolidation or a pullback before the next move.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we get the US PCE price index and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US CPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. As a reminder, we have also the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on Friday. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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Silver looks to come up for air as market mood picks up on US-Iran ceasefire

The risk-on wave across broader markets is helping to see a strong bounce in precious metals today. That as hope springs eternal after the US and Iran agrees to a two-week ceasefire in trying to work out a more lasting peace in the region.Typically, fading geopolitical tensions tend to be a negative for the likes of gold and silver. However, this whole episode has been a bit of a reverse. As explained before, gold and silver positioning consisted largely of leveraged trades before the US-Iran conflict started. It was the risky of all risky bets.So the negative drag from the conflict led to leveraged selling as both equities and bonds were heavily liquidated. Think from the perspective of big funds needing to meet margin calls, while trying to ride out the storm until it passes.Hence, the rebound here ties to the fact that market sentiment is picking up and the positive news also means that perhaps major central banks may not need be overly aggressive in pivoting to interest rate hikes. That is also one helpful factor benefiting precious metals in the rebound.The technical chart is getting quite interesting as well for silver at the moment. The precious metal is seeing a solid bounce today and is now creeping above its 100-day moving average (red line). The key level is seen at $76.11 currently. So, hold above that and buyers will be able to establish a platform in chasing a renewed upside leg. But keep below that, and sellers will still have a spot to lean on in trying to keep the pressure up.So, that's the key line in the sand to watch as market sentiment also looks to turn around. If the positive mood keeps up, the push above the key technical line above will be a good tailwind for silver prices to jump further in coming up for air. So, just watch out for that.But for the time being, it all hinges on US-Iran developments and further headline risks. And as mentioned earlier here, this ceasefire interpretation might not be that straightforward. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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Germany March construction PMI 48.0 vs 43.7 prior

While overall business activity picked up in March, it belies the underlying mood in the sector as input cost inflation posts a record rise on the month. The pick up is helped by an improved mood in housing activity, posting its shallowest decline so far this year. In turn, that makes commercial activity the weakest-performing segment in March.That being said, the latest survey showed a sharp deterioration in constructors' expectations for activity over the coming year. And that comes after having hit a six-year high in February. Of note, panellists reported concerns about demand and steep cost increases. That isn't a surprise considering the latest Middle East developments.On the latter, the rate of input price inflation faced by German construction companies rose sharply in March, recording its most marked one-month jump in the series history. This took it to its highest level since October 2022 and well above its long-run average. Trouble, trouble.HCOB notes that:"Whilst there were signs of improvement on the activity front in March, with housing work showing a much slower rate of decline and civil engineering enjoying stronger growth, several of the survey's other indicators flashed warning signals about the sector's prospects in the coming months. For a start, inflows of new orders continued falling at an accelerating rate, with existing headwinds to demand from economic uncertainty and already-high price levels being exacerbated by the outbreak of war in the Middle East. "The construction sector has followed manufacturing in seeing a record month-on-month rise in its input prices index, underscoring the immediate spike in cost pressures that's rippled through the economy from the Middle East war. "The dual concerns over weaker demand and sharply rising prices have hit business confidence and put paid to the green shoots of optimism seen at the start of the year." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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