In life, no matter what we do, there always comes the inevitable moment of reckoning—a time when performance is measured, and results are tallied. It might be your boss during an annual performance review, your coach analysing your season's stats, or a professor handing back an exam paper. In our case, it is our clients who get to decide if we delivered or missed the mark. So, now it is our turn to sit in the hot seat.Although it is a bit nerve-wracking (nobody wants to be wrong in public), it is also oddly satisfying and indeed, somewhat amusing to sit back, dust off the old predictions, line them up against what actually happened, and see if our 'crystal ball' was working or not. So, pull up a chair, grab your favourite end-of-year drink, and let's open the 2025 scorecard together. We'll go market by market and reveal exactly where we were right, what we got wrong, and how our 2025 outlook actually played out. Please, don't judge us too harshly!Octa broker's 2025 forecastsBack in December 2024, when we laid out our outlook for 2025, the world felt like it was 'rife with uncertainties and riddled with challenges', as we put it. It was a time of extreme uncertainty. Donald Trump had just been elected U.S. President, creating a thick fog of speculation around trade policies, taxes, and regulation. Bitcoin was trading near an all-time high (ATH), fueled by hopes for clearer crypto regulation. Gold was trading sideways amid election jitters and geopolitical tensions. Last but not least, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was riding high, fueled by a resilient economy, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) vibes, and hopes that trade tariffs would boost the greenback. We offered our best analysis then—now let's see what the market actually delivered.The scorecardWe're pleased to report that we nailed the overarching themes for 2025. Our key predictions proved mostly accurate, guiding traders through a volatile year.The Trump effect and trade war risksOur first major call was that the 'implications of the U.S. presidential election would play out in full force' in 2025. We also flagged a 'full-scale tariff war' as a 'major global risk'.This proved absolutely correct. Trump's administration rolled out sweeping tariffs starting in April—a universal 10% on all imports, escalating to 20-34% on big deficit partners like China, Mexico, and the European Union (EU). What we flagged as a 'major global risk' kicked off exactly the volatility we feared. Global growth forecasts from the OECD and World Bank were slashed by 0.5-1%, with U.S. GDP dipping 0.23% below baseline in 2025 due to trade frictions. Though the global economy showed surprising resilience, the threat—and the reality—of rising trade barriers led to market fragmentation, supply chain adjustments, and an increase in global inflationary pressure. The threat wasn't just a possibility; it proved to be the central drama of the year.The equities and risk-on rallyWe correctly anticipated that investors in industrialised countries would 'avoid cash as interest rates were projected to decline'. This led to our next successful call: 'investors would likely prefer to invest in risky assets like U.S. stocks and crypto, and equities may still perform well'.And perform well they did! Despite the trade drama, the boom in Artificial Intelligence (AI) productivity kept the S&P 500 and Nasdaq alive. Furthermore, lower interest rates, combined with the continued commercialisation of AI (which we highlighted as a key driver for tech, energy, and utilities), fuelled a strong 'risk-on' environment. Investors treated every dip as a buying opportunity, pushing tech stocks to new ATHs. The strength was particularly concentrated in the large-cap, technology-related stocks benefiting from the AI-driven capital expenditure cycle, a trend we had specifically highlighted. And the 'data centre build-out' we mentioned? It effectively put a floor under the energy sector, just as we thought.Gold's all-time highWe were spot-on with our view that gold will remain a 'major protective asset as geopolitical risks are not going away'. Moreover, we explicitly stated that we 'expect gold to establish new all-time highs (ATH) in 2025'.Geopolitical tensions, ranging from the U.S.-China trade war to Middle East unrest, and global monetary policy uncertainty kept demand for the yellow metal sky-high. Indeed, gold performed brilliantly, reaffirming its role as the ultimate safe-haven asset, even beyond most analysts' expectations. Crucially, the demand from global central banks for gold reserves continued its strong trajectory in 2025, providing a powerful floor to prices—a factor we had correctly identified as supportive.Bitcoin's correction and subsequent reboundOur outlook on Bitcoin was a cautious but successful one: 'the risk of a major downward correction in Bitcoin is very high in 2025, but if it does take place, it should be treated as a buying opportunity'.Just as we suggested, the crypto market saw a significant pullback in the first half of 2025. After the initial post-election optimism faded and regulatory clarity remained elusive for a period, Bitcoin endured a sharp correction. However, true to our forecast, this dip was indeed viewed as a prime buying opportunity. The underlying fundamental optimism—coupled with eventual signs of shifting regulatory tides in the second half of the year—saw Bitcoin prices not only recover but push toward new ATHs later in 2025, exactly following the 'correction and rebound' scenario we laid out.U.S. dollar's declineFinally, we were absolutely right when we said last year that 'the U.S. dollar seems overvalued... Betting on its continuing rise is risky'.While many expected trade tariffs to strengthen the dollar, we were sceptical of further gains, and the greenback tumbled. Indeed, the DXY experienced its steepest decline in over five decades in the first half of 2025, plunging by almost 11% due to anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Fed, growing investor concern over U.S. fiscal sustainability and ballooning federal debt and also due to reputational damage and uncertainty stemming from U.S. policy under the Trump administration.What we missedWhile the trends were spot-on, we have to admit one key area where we missed the mark: the scope of the movements. We got the direction right, but the sheer velocity of the market shifts in 2025 caught us—and many others—off guard.Gold's unprecedented rise. We confidently called for gold to set a new ATH and speculated that '$3,000 per ounce was not impossible'. Well, we were too conservative. The scale of safe-haven demand, driven by heightened geopolitical anxiety and central bank purchasing, was far beyond our wildest expectations. We didn't foresee the prolonged U.S. government shutdown in late 2025 acting as rocket fuel, pushing the metal not just past $3,000, but rallying as high as $4,000+ per ounce. We were bullish, but the market was hyper-bullish.The dollar's freefall. We were bearish on the greenback, predicting it was overvalued. But we didn't expect it to lose as much as 12% in a single year. The speed at which the market repriced U.S. debt sustainability caught even us by surprise.While we advised caution and risk, we underestimated the speed with which concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and tariff risks would unwind the multi-year rally.Growth of U.S. benchmark indices. Equities were another scope miss. We warned against broad-based growth and instead advocated for sector-specific focus like AI and energy—solid advice, as tech rose 25%+ and nuclear plays like Constellation Energy (+45% YTD) and Vistra (+51%) crushed it on data centre deals. But the S&P's 17% total return (including dividends) outpaced our cautious stance, thanks to resilient earnings (up 7.4% forward EPS). The takeawaySo, what have we learned from the 2025 market cycle?Our analysis of the major forces—geopolitical risk, the effects of new U.S. policy, the AI-driven tech cycle, the shift in interest rate expectations, and the underlying vulnerability of the U.S. dollar—was robust. However, 2025 was a stark reminder that in an environment 'rife with uncertainties', when a trend breaks, it can break hard and fast. As we eye 2026, with tariffs entrenched and Fed easing potentially pausing, volatility will linger—but so will opportunities for those who trade smart, and not scared to conduct a thorough self-review of trading predictions. Disclaimer: This article does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences.Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 61 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities.Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 100 awards, including the 'Most Reliable Broker Global 2024' award from Global Forex Awards and the 'Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024' award from Global Brand Magazine. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

September was 119KOctober was -105K (just released)Unemployment rate 4.6% vs 4.4% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.4%On an unrounded basis, the unemployment rate rose to 4.564% in November from 4.440%Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.4% priorU6 underemployment rate 8.7% vs 8.0% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expectedAverage hourly earnings +3.5% y/y vs +3.6% expectedAverage weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.2 expectedChange in private payrolls +69K vs +45K expectedChange in manufacturing payrolls -5K vs -5K expectedGovernment payrolls -5K vs +22K in SeptemberThe market was pricing in a 48% chance of a March cut before the report. USD/JPY was trading at 154.65 before the data and S&P 500 futures were down 8 points. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Retail Sales data for the month of October 2025 from the US Census BureauPrior month retail sales (September) 0.2% revised to 0.1%Retail sales for the month of October 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate.Retail sales ex autos 0.4% vs 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.3% revised lower to 0.1%Retail sales ex autos and gas 0.5% vs 0.0% last month (revised from 0.1%).Control group (feeds into US GDP) 0.8% vs 0.4% estimate. Last month -0.1%Looking at some of the details from the line items (Census Bureau)Motor vehicle & parts dealers: -1.6% — a notable drag on the headline, reflecting weaker auto demand.Furniture & home furnishings: +2.3% — strong rebound, pointing to resilience in discretionary household spending.Electronics & appliance stores: +0.7% — moderate improvement after prior softness.Building materials & garden supplies: -0.9% — continued weakness tied to softer housing-related activity.Food & beverage stores (groceries): +0.3% — steady essential spending.Health & personal care: -0.6% — pullback after strong gains in prior months.Clothing & accessories: +0.9% — discretionary spending improved modestly.Sporting goods, hobby, books: +1.9% — solid gain, supporting the idea of selective discretionary strength.General merchandise stores: +0.5% — steady broad-based retail activity.Nonstore retailers (online): +1.8% — e-commerce remained a key growth driver.Food services & drinking places: -0.4% — slight decline, hinting at some consumer caution on services spending.Top gainers (month-over-month)Furniture & home furnishings: +2.3%Sporting goods, hobby, books: +1.9%Nonstore retailers (online): +1.8%Clothing & accessories: +0.9%Electronics & appliance stores: +0.7%General merchandise stores: +0.5%Retail sales ex-autos: +0.4%Food & beverage stores (groceries): +0.3%Retail sales ex-gas: +0.1%Top decliners (month-over-month)Motor vehicle & parts dealers: -1.6%Building materials & garden supplies: -0.9%Gasoline stations: -0.8%Health & personal care stores: -0.6%Food services & drinking places: -0.4%UnchangedRetail & food services (headline): 0.0%Trader takeaway: gains were concentrated in discretionary and online spending, while autos and housing-related categories dragged, explaining the flat headline despite healthier underlying demand.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------US retail sales: What the report tells traders about the consumer and growthWhy retail sales matterWhen on schedule (today's data is from October) US retail sales offer one of the clearest, most timely reads on consumer demand, which drives roughly two-thirds of overall US economic activity. Because the data are released monthly and feed directly into GDP calculations, markets often use the report to reassess growth momentum, Fed policy expectations, and near-term direction for yields, equities, and the US dollar.Understanding the key componentsThe headline retail sales figure measures overall spending but can be volatile due to autos and gasoline. For that reason, traders focus more closely on retail sales ex-autos, which provide a cleaner signal of underlying demand, and the control group (excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services), which feeds directly into GDP’s personal consumption component. A strong control group typically signals solid real economic growth, while weakness can quickly raise recession or slowdown concerns.What the category breakdown revealsThe internal composition of the report is often as important as the headline. Strength in discretionary categories such as online sales, restaurants, and general merchandise suggests confident consumers and healthy labor income. By contrast, weakness across multiple categories or reliance on essentials can indicate consumers are becoming more cautious, even if the headline number looks stable.How traders use the dataFor markets, strong retail sales tend to support higher Treasury yields and a firmer USD, particularly if paired with signs of rising prices or wages. Soft or slowing sales usually weigh on yields and the dollar, reinforcing expectations for Fed easing. Ultimately, traders use the report to judge whether the US consumer is powering growth, merely sustaining it, or beginning to pull back, shaping both short-term market moves and broader macro positioning.The Market reaction:The USD moved lower initially but has moved back higher after the early reaction to both the retail sales and the US jobs report.The EURUSD moved to a high of 1.1794, above a swing area between 1.1779 and 1.1788. However, the price has since moved back down currently trades at 1.1770. The 61.8% retracement of the range since September comes in at 1.1746.The USDJPY moved to a low of 154.40. That was within a swing area target between 154.33 and 154.477. The current price is trading back higher at 154.86.The GBPUSD moved up to test the 61.8% retracement target of the move down from the September high at 1.34526. The high reach 1.3454. The price is back down at 1.3413 above a swing area between 1.3391 and 1.34048. The S&P is up about 1 point. The Dow industrial average is up about 20 points while the NASDAQ is down -20 points. Looking at the US yields, they are lower in the short and with the 2-year down -2.0 basis points, the10 year is down -0.8 basis points while the 30 year is up 0.5 basis points. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

As North America gets underway, the three major currency pairs are showing modest but important technical signals ahead of the US nonfarm payroll data which will be released at 8:30 AM. Also scheduled for release is US retail sales, and later the flash PMI data for the month of December. The jobs in retail sales data are the 1st since the government shutdown. There will be no October data released for the jobs report. The retail sales number is for the month of October. Expectations for US jobs report: nonfarm payroll to rise by 50 Kunemployment rate 4.4% unchanged from Septemberaverage hourly earnings 0.3% MoM with 3.6% YoYThe retail sales expectations are for:MoM Retail sales +0.1% versus 0.2% in SeptemberEx Auto 0.3% versus 0.3% SeptemberControl Group 0.4% versus -0.1%The weekly US ADP report will also be released at 8:15 AM ET. Last week, the weekly average moved back into positive territory at 4.75K. IN the forex as the NA session begins, the EURUSD is edging higher at 1.1765, up 0.11% on the day, holding above the mid-range after trading between 1.1745 and 1.1769, keeping buyers modestly in control as long as support holds. The USDJPY is softer at 154.73, down 0.31%, with sellers pressing the pair toward a swing area support near 154.33 to 154.477 and remains below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, suggesting downside momentum is building unless buyers can reclaim higher levels.Meanwhile, the GBPUSD is the strongest of the three, trading at 1.3430 and up 0.43% helped by stronger PMI data, pushing toward the high from last week at 1.34376, signaling bullish momentum as buyers continue to drive the pair higher from the 1.3356 low. In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) look at these three major pairs from a technical perspective and outline the bias, the risks, and the targets for each as the North American session unfoldsFundamentally, UK PMI data for December beat expectations, with Manufacturing PMI at 51.2 (vs 50.4 expected) and the Composite PMI at 52.1 (vs 51.6 expected), pointing to firmer activity and the fastest rise in new business in 14 months. The survey suggests GDP growth of around 0.2% in December, although that optimism is tempered by the fact that official GDP data released last week came in weaker than expected, reinforcing the view that the broader economy remains fragile. Commentary from S&P Global highlighted lacklustre underlying growth, ongoing widespread job losses, and a renewed upturn in selling price inflation across both goods and services driven by rising cost pressures. The data keep the Bank of England on track to cut rates, but with growth soft and inflation risks lingering, policymakers are likely to signal caution on further easing, remaining highly data-dependent and prompting markets to reassess overly dovish expectations.The European Flash PMI data was mixedEurope’s flash PMI data showed a mixed picture, with manufacturing seeing pockets of improvement while services activity softened across key economies.France Manufacturing PMI: 50.6 vs 48.1 (BETTER), higher than last month (47.8)France Services PMI: 50.2 vs 51.1 (WORSE), lower than last month (51.4)Germany Manufacturing PMI: 47.7 vs 48.6 (WORSE), lower than last month (48.2)Germany Services PMI: 52.6 vs 53.0 (WORSE), lower than last month (53.1)UK Manufacturing PMI: 51.2 vs 50.3 (BETTER), higher than last month (50.2)UK Services PMI: 52.1 vs 51.6 (BETTER), higher than last month (51.3)US stocks are little changed. US yields are lowerUS stocks are little changed to start the day. Dow industrial average industrial average is unchangedS&P is down -4.0 pointsNasdaq index is down 45 pointsThe US yields are unchanged to lower 2 year yield 3.505%, -0.2 basis points5 year yield 3.719%, -1.4 basis points10 year yield 4.164%, -1.7 basis points30 year yield 4.832%, -2.0 per basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior 1.2%HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelimPrior +1.3%Slight delay in the release by the source. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 53.6Manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 49.9 expectedPrior 49.6Composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.7 expectedPrior 52.8After the downcast from the German numbers, this was well expected. Both the services and manufacturing prints are softer than estimated, pushing down overall activity in the euro area for December. That said, it still marks another expansion in activity at least to wrap up the year. That won't change much for the ECB outlook as such. EUR/USD continues to trade near unchanged on the day at 1.1752 with large option expiries seen at 1.1750. HCOB notes that:“Economic growth slowed at the end of the year due to a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector and weaker momentum in the service sector. The weaker performance is primarily attributable to German industry, where the downturn intensified. In France, on the other hand, there are signs of a cautious recovery in industry, although a single monthly figure should not be overrated. However, the service sector, which had expanded last month, is stagnating there, while Germany's service companies saw another solid rise in activity. All in all, the runway into the new year seems pretty unstable. “Despite a softening of growth, the service sector continues to look relatively robust. Companies have no reason to complain about new business and are therefore hiring additional staff. Looking ahead, however, companies have become somewhat more cautious, which is likely due in part to the decline in order backlogs. We expect the service sector to continue to play a stabilising role for the economy as a whole in the coming year. However, a real upturn will only succeed if the manufacturing sector regains its footing. “Cost inflation in the service sector reached its highest rate in nine months in December. The European Central Bank, which is meeting on December 18 and is monitoring service inflation particularly closely, is likely to see its publicly stated policy of leaving interest rates unchanged confirmed. It is clear that price pressure, driven in part by wage increases, is still noticeable.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.2Services PMI 52.6 vs 53.0 expectedPrior 53.1Composite PMI 51.5 vs 52.4 expectedPrior 52.4This is in contrast to the better than expected French PMIs. In fact, the gains seen in the euro following the French release got erased. Overall, this doesn't change anything for the ECB though. The central bank will likely maintain its neutral stance and keep monitoring economic developments.Comment:Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “What a mess, one might exclaim in view of the further downturn in the manufacturing sector. For the second month in a row, the headline manufacturing PMI has fallen deeper into sub-50 contraction territory, and for the first time in ten months, production is also declining. The latter comes as no surprise, as order intakes had already slumped in November. This trend has now continued, which does not bode well for the start of next year. “Despite warning lights flashing in the industry, there are significantly more manufacturing companies looking ahead to the coming year with confidence in December. The corresponding index has jumped upwards, possibly reflecting the fact that the government has launched a number of transport projects, decided on reforms to reduce bureaucracy, and wants to expand defence capabilities. Only if these measures result in an increase in incoming orders will the industry regain momentum. “The service sector is losing momentum for the second month in a row. However, business activity continues to grow visibly, as evidenced by the stronger expansion of staff. New business has been increasing steadily for three months and overall, the service sector is stabilizing the economy as a whole and is likely to contribute significantly to positive GDP growth in the fourth quarter. “While confidence in the manufacturing sector has increased visibly, the assessment of the next 12 months in the service sector has weakened in December. It is possible that people believe that the economic stimulus package and higher defence spending will primarily benefit construction companies, the mechanical engineering sector, and companies that produce directly or as suppliers in the defence sector, while service providers tend to come away empty-handed. "However, this does not have to be the case, because industrial production usually also involves activities that are accompanied by service providers such as consulting firms, auditors, and software developers. In addition, there are the so-called multiplier effects, because employees of companies that receive additional (government) orders are more likely to treat themselves to an extra visit to a restaurant or a concert that they would otherwise have foregone.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 51.4Manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs 48.1 expectedPrior 47.8Composite PMI 50.1 vs 50.3 expectedPrior 50.4It's a polarising release with the French services sector slumping in December while the manufacturing sector posts a beat on activity. At the balance though, it still leads to a bit of a drag to the French economy with overall activity basically stagnating in the final month of the year. Looking at the details, employment conditions held up while price developments were little changed compared to November. HCOB notes that:“French private sector business conditions appear largely static in December. The HCOB flash PMI remains marginally in growth territory, yet it signals a softer expansion compared to the prior month, reflecting an economy still weighed down by uncertainty among households and firms. Beneath the surface, however, sectoral adjustments have occurred: manufacturing stabilised, whereas services lost momentum, leaving the aggregate picture flat and the overall French economy sluggish. “The flash Manufacturing PMI managed a modest climb past the 50.0-point mark as the year drew to a close. December brought encouraging signs in indices for both output and order books, with foreign demand providing a notable lift. Another optimistic reading of the Future Output Index and a renewed willingness among firms to expand their workforces provides a positive signal for the outlook. “However, so long as no budget is passed by the government, political uncertainty will remain a noticeable headwind for France’s economy. The passage of the social security budget is at least a small victory for Prime Minister Lecornu. However, subdued consumer sentiment and intense international competitive pressures from the likes of the US and China diminish growth prospects. The recently robust aviation industry could offer a glimmer of hope for the future by providing additional impetus to the manufacturing sector more broadly.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.6%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1%The market mood is leaning towards the defensive side today, with watchful eyes on key US data later in the day. There is a lot of anticipation on the latest update/snapshot of the US economy, even if the data is very much delayed and going to be a hell of a mess to decipher. As a reminder, we will be getting the latest non-farm payrolls and retail sales data from the US at 1230 GMT later. The former is going to include both the October and November numbers, with BLS already warning that there will be "higher-than-usual variances". This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSION:In the European session, we'll get the Flash PMIs for the UK and the major Eurozone economies. The data is unlikely to change much for the respective central banks though. In fact, the BoE is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75%. They will likely tread carefully from there on as the interest rate will be in their "quite broad" 2-4% neutral range. The market expects at least one more cut in 2026 after the one we get on Thursday. On the ECB side, the central bank is expected to keep everything unchanged and not giving away too much in terms of forward guidance. Almost all ECB members have repeatedly said that the next move could be either way and that they won't respond to small or short-term deviations from their 2% target.AMERICAN SESSION:In the American session, it goes without saying that all eyes will be on the US NFP report and nothing else will matter. In fact, despite having also the US Flash PMIs on the agenda, the market will highly likely trade based on the US jobs report. The November Non-Farm Payrolls is expected at 50K vs 119K prior, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs 3.8% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior.There's been lots of talk that this report could be noisy as the data collection process was affected by the shutdown. Moreover, Fed Chair Powell said in the press conference that they think job gains have been overstated by 60K in recent months and that they think there's a negative 20K in payrolls per month.Therefore, the Unemployment Rate will probably be the most important metric to look at in terms of market reaction, but big deviations in payrolls will also catch market's attention. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS:11:30 GMT/06:30 ET - ECB's Villeroy (dovish - voter)17:45 GMT/12:45 ET - BoC Governor Macklem (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures -0.6%UK FTSE futures -0.4%This mirrors the mood in US futures as well as carrying over the negative tone from Asia. The Nikkei closed down by 1.6% and S&P 500 futures are now down 0.6% on the day as tech shares continue to lag. Nasdaq futures are down 0.8% currently. Concerns surrounding the AI bubble continue to permeate and that is keeping market players on their toes ahead of Christmas to year-end lull next week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 5.0%Employment change -16k vs -67k expectedPrior -22kAverage weekly earnings +4.7% vs +4.4% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.8%; revised to +4.9%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +4.6% vs +4.5% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.6%; revised to +4.7%November payrolls change -38kPrior -32k; revised to -22kThe jobless rate in the UK continues to tick higher, with payrolls change for November also declining once more. That continues to reinforce a softening labour market picture, though wages are holding up somewhat still. The BOE will have to be mindful with the unemployment rate creeping up to its highest since February 2021. Meanwhile, the UK employment rate is seen dropping further to 74.9% - down 0.3% on the quarter and keeping well below its pre-pandemic levels.Real wages (after accounting for CPI) is seen declining but just marginally, with total pay seen at 0.7% and regular pay 0.5% in real-terms in the three months to September.As for payrolls in general, we are seeing the number of payrolled employees continuing to fall further and now reach its lowest since September 2023.The data continues to underscore that the UK jobs market is softening and will keep the pressure on the BOE to cut rates down the road. A 25 bps rate cut for this week is very likely, even if the voting intentions might be marginally in favour of a rate cut. The market is pricing in ~92% odds of a move on Thursday. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. The expiries do not tie to any technical significance but offers up the potential to act as a magnet for price action, at least before we get to key US data later in the day. Euro area PMI data might have a bit of a say in keeping things lively in European trading but barring any surprises, we're likely to see more muted action in EUR/USD until we get to the US jobs report and retail sales data releases.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

We're seeing a more cautious mood ahead of European trading, with Asian stocks and US futures holding lower today. The Nikkei is down 1.3% after a more sluggish showing by tech shares in Wall Street yesterday. Nvidia might've ended up 0.7% higher but AI stocks in general continue to wobble in the early stages this week.So far today, S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% after the 0.2% decline yesterday. It's a bit of a setback after holding somewhat steadier last week, keeping on the verge of fresh record highs. However, a push to test that seems to be a step too far for now amid the caution up in the air on the AI bubble.For the day ahead, the big focus turns to US data. Not only will we be getting the non-farm payrolls report but retail sales data will also be on the cards later. So, that will keep market players interested in search of trading the headlines based on the latest update and snapshot that we will get on the US economy - one that is feeling long overdue, even if it might be a messy one. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

So, what'd I miss during the break? ;)There was no shortage of action in markets in the past week, not least with the Fed delivering one final 25 bps rate cut to wrap up the year. Now, the race for Fed chair is also reportedly heating up with Kevin Warsh pipped to be the favourite - ousting Hassett. A battle between the two Kevins is what's left now.But for today, the drama will center on the release of the much delayed US labour market report. That's right. The non-farm payrolls data for November was not released on the first week of December but instead pushed to today. And to make things more complicated, it will be combined with the October job numbers as well.If that is already not messy enough for you, the BLS also announced that there will be "higher-than-usual variances" in the jobs data for this month and following months as well.This comes as they implement statistical weighting changes to account for the missing October panel and also as November saw some data collection issues.All of this just means it won't be easy and it might take some time - not necessarily this week or this month - to read into the numbers and make sense of the labour market outlook. The existing narrative is that we should continue to see signs of weakening in the landscape, and it will make more sense for market players to judge that in early next year and not on this mess of a release.Still, it doesn't mean traders and investors will not react to the data and brush it aside. There will be volatility and reactions to it for sure. But if you're expecting any firm conclusions from the numbers today, you might not want to hold your breath on that one.In any case, headline non-farm payrolls for November is estimated at 50k with the jobless rate at 4.4%. So, those will remain key benchmark figures to be mindful of ahead of the release later. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

U.S. lawmakers have delayed progress on a long-awaited crypto market structure bill, pushing any formal legislative action into next year and dealing a setback to an industry seeking clearer federal oversight.The Senate Banking Committee confirmed it will not hold a markup hearing on market structure legislation before the end of the year, deferring debate on how U.S. regulators should supervise digital asset markets. While the delay was widely anticipated, it extinguishes hopes that Congress could deliver even incremental momentum toward a comprehensive crypto framework before year-end.Committee officials said negotiations between Republicans and Democrats are ongoing, with bipartisan agreement remaining the stated objective. However, lawmakers now face a crowded legislative calendar in early 2026, including the need to address government funding before a January deadline and the looming constraints of the midterm election cycle, which historically compress the window for complex regulatory reforms.The proposed market structure bill aims to clarify the division of responsibility between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Under current drafts, the CFTC would assume a primary role in regulating spot crypto markets, while securities laws would be more clearly delineated for digital assets that resemble traditional financial instruments. Both the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees the SEC, and the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the CFTC, would need to advance legislation independently before a final bill could move forward.Democratic lawmakers have raised concerns around financial stability, market integrity and ethics, particularly in light of the expanding crypto-related business interests linked to President Donald Trump and his family. These issues have emerged as key sticking points in negotiations, complicating efforts to reach bipartisan consensus.Despite the legislative delay, regulatory momentum has continued outside Congress. The SEC has stepped up engagement with the industry through staff guidance and public roundtables exploring how existing securities laws apply to crypto activities. The CFTC has also taken a more accommodative stance, moving to permit licensed institutions to participate in spot crypto trading and granting limited regulatory relief to certain market operators.While these steps offer some near-term clarity, the absence of legislation leaves the industry reliant on regulator-by-regulator interpretation, reinforcing uncertainty around compliance, enforcement and long-term investment decisions. --- The legislative delay is mildly negative for near-term crypto sentiment, as it extends regulatory uncertainty around market structure, custody and exchange oversight in the U.S. While recent steps by the SEC and CFTC provide incremental clarity, the absence of a statutory framework may limit institutional risk-taking and cap upside momentum for Bitcoin and major tokens. That said, the market impact is likely to be contained, with price action continuing to be driven more by macro liquidity conditions, ETF flows and U.S. rate expectations than by legislative timelines This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US suspends UK tech deal amid wider trade tensions (earlier Financial Times report)Indian rupee fresh record lows on flow pressureCBA sees February RBA rate hike as growth runs hot. Citi & NAB also expect February hike.NAB sees RBA hiking twice in 2026, clashing with market expectations for extended holdChina eyes pragmatic 2026 growth target near 5% (while onshore yuan surges higher!)ICYMI - Ford takes US$19.5bn EV charge as strategy pivots to hybridsNew Zealand fiscal outlook darkens as finance minister Willis sticks to disciplinePBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0602 (vs. estimate at 7.0444)Japan preliminary December PMI shows modest growth as services offset factory weaknessNew Zealand bonds - NZDMO cuts near-term bond issuance but lifts medium-term outlookAustralian consumer sentiment falls sharply in December: WestpacECB/NFP preview - Morgan Stanley sees euro gain if ECB avoids rate pushback, 1.30 longtermNasdaq moves toward 24/5 stock trading amid global demandGoldman Sachs raises its 2026 copper forecast as tariff odds easeAustralia preliminary December PMI: Manufacturing 52.2 (prior 51.6) services 51.0 (52.8)New Zealand data: November Food Price Index -0.4% m/m (prior -0.3%)Tech stocks slide as Broadcom tumbles amid market turbulenceWe saw a raft of lower-tier economic data released during the Asia session.New Zealand kicked things off with data showing food price inflation falling on the month while remaining elevated year on year. The monthly decline in the Food Price Index will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, offering tentative evidence that one of the stickier components of inflation may be starting to ease. With food prices accounting for nearly a fifth of the CPI basket, even modest monthly declines can have a meaningful impact on headline inflation outcomes.Later from New Zealand, fresh fiscal projections showed no return to a budget surplus over the next five years, as weak growth and higher debt continue to delay fiscal repair. Net debt is now seen peaking at 46.9% of GDP, despite tentative signs of economic recovery. Separately, the New Zealand Debt Management Office trimmed its near-term bond issuance plans. The NZD was heavy for most of the session.The AUD also softened before recovering modestly. Australian data showed the headline S&P Global Flash Composite PMI eased to 51.1 in December from 52.6 in November — a seven-month low, but still comfortably above the 50 expansion threshold, extending the growth run to fifteen consecutive months.The moderation reflected slower momentum across both sectors. Services activity eased, with the Business Activity Index falling to 51.0 from 52.8 as heightened competition and softer export growth weighed. Manufacturing, by contrast, showed relative resilience, with the PMI rising to 52.2 from 51.6 on firmer goods demand and improved export orders.We also heard from Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank, with analysts at both now expecting a Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate hike at the 2–3 February 2026 meeting. NAB further expects an additional hike in May '26. AUD/USD dipped to just below 0.6620 before rebounding modestly toward 0.6635, with NZD/USD also ticking higher.USD/JPY drifted lower, briefly testing below 154.75. Japan’s preliminary December PMI showed modest growth as services offset ongoing manufacturing weakness, with little else of note from the data.In China, the PBOC once again set USD/CNY above model estimates at the daily fixing, though the market pushed the pair lower regardless, with USD/CNY hitting levels last seen in late September 2024. Meanwhile, China Securities Times reported policymakers are debating whether to set next year’s growth target at around 5% or adopt a more flexible 4.5%–5.0% range, underscoring a pragmatic approach amid a tougher external backdrop. Asia-Pac stocks were heavy, following a weak Wall Street:Japan (Nikkei 225) -1.28%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -1.88% Shanghai Composite -1.29%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.41% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The United States has suspended a recently agreed technology partnership with Britain, injecting fresh uncertainty into the transatlantic relationship as Washington presses London for broader trade concessions beyond the tech sector.According to reporting by the Financial Times, the U.S. administration halted progress on the so-called Tech Prosperity Deal last week, despite the agreement having been unveiled earlier this year as a flagship framework to deepen cooperation in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and civil nuclear energy. British officials have since confirmed the suspension, though neither government has formally commented. The Financial Times is gated, but Reuters summarised the report. The move appears to reflect growing frustration in Washington over what it views as the UK’s reluctance to address a range of non-tariff barriers, including regulatory and standards-based restrictions affecting food products and industrial goods. U.S. officials are said to be seeking concessions in these areas, signalling that the technology partnership has become entangled in wider trade negotiations.The suspension underscores the increasingly transactional nature of U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump, with sector-specific agreements now more tightly linked to broader market-access objectives. While the tech deal was framed as a strategic collaboration aimed at strengthening Western leadership in advanced technologies, it has become leverage in talks over trade frictions unrelated to digital policy.The setback is notable given the scale of existing U.S.–UK economic ties. The United States is Britain’s largest trading partner, and major U.S. technology firms have already invested billions of dollars in UK operations across cloud computing, artificial intelligence research and data infrastructure. The UK has positioned itself as a key hub for emerging technologies, particularly as it seeks to differentiate its regulatory framework post-Brexit.Although the suspension does not amount to a cancellation, it raises questions over the durability of bilateral tech cooperation if progress on trade issues stalls. Analysts note that prolonged delays could complicate investment decisions and slow joint initiatives in strategically sensitive areas such as AI governance and quantum research.For now, the episode highlights how geopolitical considerations and trade disputes are increasingly intersecting with technology policy, turning once-standalone innovation partnerships into bargaining chips in broader economic negotiations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Indian rupee is set to open at fresh record lows, as a deteriorating global risk backdrop compounds persistent flow imbalances that continue to weigh heavily on the currency. Info via Reuters. One-month non-deliverable forward pricing suggests USD/INR will open in the 90.80–90.85 range, extending losses after the rupee closed at 90.73 on Monday. The currency slipped to a new all-time low of 90.7875 during the previous session, marking a third consecutive day of record weakness.Market participants say the latest leg lower is being driven less by panic and more by entrenched flow dynamics. Bankers point to a sustained mismatch between dollar demand and supply, with fixing-related dollar buying, potentially linked to NDF maturities and portfolio outflows, emerging as a recurring source of pressure. Additional demand from state-owned enterprises has further strained onshore liquidity.At the same time, importer hedging demand has remained consistently strong, reflecting concerns about further rupee depreciation. Exporter selling, by contrast, has been subdued, as many exporters remain reluctant to hedge at current levels, preferring to wait in anticipation of better rates. This imbalance has left the rupee exposed to even modest increases in dollar demand.Portfolio flows have also played a central role. Ongoing foreign outflows from local equity and debt markets have outweighed India’s longer-term structural positives, including solid growth prospects and improving macro fundamentals. In the near term, these strengths have offered limited protection against global risk aversion and a firm U.S. dollar.Crucially, traders note that the current phase of weakness appears orderly and flow-led rather than driven by speculative capitulation. Volatility remains contained, suggesting that while pressure is intense, markets are adjusting incrementally rather than disorderly repricing risk.Until there is a meaningful turnaround in portfolio flows, a shift in global risk sentiment, or a clear positive catalyst on the trade front, the rupee is likely to remain under pressure. In the absence of such triggers, fresh record lows cannot be ruled out in the near term. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s economy is increasingly exhibiting conditions consistent with further monetary tightening, leading Commonwealth Bank economists to forecast a 25 basis point Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February, despite market scepticism around near-term action. I posted earlier on another two calls for a February rate hike:Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks riseNAB sees RBA hiking twice in 2026, clashing with market expectations for extended holdThe core of CBA’s argument is that economic momentum is proving stronger and more persistent than the RBA anticipated. Growth has rebounded faster than expected, with GDP accelerating through the second half of 2025 and activity now assessed as running around potential rather than below it. The pickup has been broad-based, led by household consumption as real disposable incomes recover and savings buffers are drawn down.Labour market conditions remain a key driver of the tightening call. Employment growth has stayed resilient, spare capacity indicators point to limited slack, and unemployment is forecast to remain low even as population growth eases. With wages growth still elevated relative to productivity, CBA argues that domestic cost pressures remain inconsistent with inflation returning smoothly to target without further policy restraint.Inflation dynamics are another critical factor. While headline inflation has moderated, underlying measures are proving sticky, with services inflation and trimmed-mean CPI easing only gradually. Inflation expectations have also edged higher across consumer and market-based measures, raising concerns that inflation persistence could become more entrenched if policy settings are not tightened further.CBA also points to evidence that financial conditions have loosened unintentionally. Equity markets have rallied, the Australian dollar has depreciated at times, and household spending has surprised to the upside, all of which risk undermining the disinflation process. Against this backdrop, holding rates steady for too long could allow demand to re-accelerate faster than supply, especially given ongoing capacity constraints.While acknowledging that timing is finely balanced, CBA believes the RBA will judge that acting earlier — rather than waiting for clearer inflation deterioration — is the lower-risk strategy. A February hike would reinforce the Bank’s inflation-fighting credibility and help ensure inflation returns sustainably to target, even if it means running policy more restrictive for longer. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.