This New Bitcoin Price Prediction From Saxo Bank Warns BTC Could Fall to Zero
Bitcoin
(BTC) is staging a recovery today, trading with renewed volatility following a
brutal start to the week. As of this writing on Tuesday, December 2, 2025, the
world's leading cryptocurrency has rebounded over 1% from yesterday's lows,
establishing a session high of $87,628.However,
this green candle masks a precarious technical reality. Yesterday, Bitcoin
suffered its largest single-day decline since March, shedding over 6% in a
liquidation event that caught late bulls off guard. While the price has found
local support around $84,000, a level that served as a critical floor in
late April, market structure suggests this may be a temporary reprieve rather
than a reversal.The
collision of a technical "Death Cross," institutional "bull
traps," and looming macroeconomic shifts suggests that Bitcoin may have
one final, painful leg down to $74,000 before the true parabolic run to $130,000
begins in 2026.In the
background is also Saxo Bank’s “outrageous prediction,” which targets a
level of zero on the BTC chart. Could analysts be right? I examine this in
the article below.Why is Bitcoin Falling? The
Anatomy of a Bull TrapTo
understand why is Bitcoin falling despite the broader bullish sentiment, we
must look at the price action of late November. The rally observed toward the
end of last month has now been confirmed as a classic "bull trap."On November
28, Bitcoin price action painted a textbook bearish signal: a bearish
pin bar candle formed precisely at the resistance zone I have been
monitoring between $92,000 and $94,000. This rejection was the first
domino. Since that failed breakout, the market has been in a steady decline,
clearly reversing from those highs.Currently,
the support at $84,000 is holding, but the technical damage is significant.
This level is likely functioning as a "pit stop" rather than a
bottom. The breakdown was exacerbated by macroeconomic jitters, as noted by Paul
Howard, Director at Wincent:"The
potential rate hike news from BoJ took many in the markets by surprise and led
to a pulldown in risk assets generally overnight in Europe... Cryptocurrency
continues to be the risk-on asset class and a bellwether of macro-economic
events 24x7."Along with
Bitcoin, XRP also fell on Monday, which
I wrote about here. For the cryptocurrency, it was the biggest drop in a
month, and technical analysis shows room for a further 20% declineBitcoin Price Prediction
And The Road to $74,000My bearish
case and Bitcoin price prediction for the immediate term is supported by two
powerful technical indicators: the Fibonacci extension and the dreaded
"Death Cross."1. The
Death CrossThe
medium-term outlook has turned decidedly bearish due to a "Death
Cross" formation on the daily chart, where the 50-day moving average has
crossed below the 200-day moving average. Historically, this lagging indicator
signals a period of momentum exhaustion and often precedes a deeper
capitulation event to flush out leverage.2. The
$74,000 TargetWhile
retail traders are hoping for a bounce at $84K, "Smart Money" appears
to be waiting lower. My analysis points to $74,000 as the ultimate
bearish objective. This level is critical for two reasons:Fibonacci Confluence: It aligns perfectly with the 161.8%
Fibonacci extension of the recent correction wave.Liquidity: This zone represents a massive
pool of uncollected liquidity. It is the "maximum pain" point
where stop-losses from eager longs will be hunted.Kamil
Szczepański,
Financial Markets Analyst at XTB, warns that losing the current levels could
accelerate the drop:"Bitcoin
price is rebounding slightly after yesterday's almost 6% sell-off to $86.5K
USD, but looking at two previous corrections in this bull market, we see that
the tendency to 'retest lows' exists... A potential drop below $81,000
could trigger another strong sell impulse."Szczepański
highlights that breaking $81K risks falling below the Glassnode "True
Market Mean," a historical indicator of entering a bearish phase.The 2026 BTC Outlook: From
Capitulation to $130,000Despite the
immediate bearish technicals, the long-term thesis remains aggressively
bullish. I remain a "bull in bear's clothing." The anticipated drop
to $74,000 is not the end of the cycle. It is a re-accumulation zone.Order book
data from major futures exchanges shows a dense "net" of buy orders
waiting in the low $70K region. Large institutions are likely positioning to
scoop up Bitcoin at these discounted prices after "the street"
(retail investors) has capitulated.My
Prediction: Once
the $74,000 test is complete, clearing out weak hands, we will likely see a
V-shaped recovery in early 2026.Target 1: Reclaiming the All-Time High
(ATH) of $126,000.Target 2: A breakout above $130,000
before the end of Q1 2026.This
bullish view is supported by the macro-constructive outlook of Joel Kruger,
Crypto Strategist at LMAX Group:"The
macro backdrop is lending a supportive undertone, with markets leaning toward a
Fed rate cut... A softer dollar is helping sustain risk appetite... Within the
crypto ecosystem, attention is centered on ETF inflows, rising on-chain
activity, and a rebound in stablecoin issuance, signals that institutional
demand remains durable."The "Black
Swan": Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Bitcoin Prediction 2026While
technicals paint a picture of a correction followed by a rally, investors must
always account for "tail risks." In their newly released "Outrageous
Predictions 2026", Saxo Bank outlines a scenario that could upend the
entire digital asset market: The Arrival of Q-Day.Will Taylor Swifts wedding set off a global economic boom??♀️?♂️??This is only one of the outrageous predictions our strategists have made for 2026, and the full list is even wilder.Each year Saxos strategy team reveals a new set of bold and thought provoking predictions that… pic.twitter.com/0026VM8Uke— Saxo (@saxobank) December 2, 2025Neil
Wilson, Saxo’s UK
Investor Strategist, hypothesizes a scenario where quantum computing breaks
standard cryptography earlier than expected.“Markets
move first. Crypto is hit hardest. Old bitcoin addresses start to look
vulnerable, prompting exchanges to freeze withdrawals as a rush for the exits
turns into a stampede. Bitcoin collapses toward zero” – Wilson predicts.The Scenario: A quantum computer proves it
can break today's digital security standards, rendering crypto wallets
vulnerable.The Impact: In this "outrageous"
prediction, Bitcoin collapses toward zero as trust in digital encryption
evaporates. Investors rush for physical assets, sending Gold
rocketing toward $10,000.The Outcome: A massive transfer of wealth
from "digital gold" (Bitcoin) to "physical gold" and a
global "maintenance weekend" to upgrade banking infrastructure.While this
is a low-probability event designed to provoke thought, it underscores the
importance of diversification. If $74k holds, the path is to $130k. If quantum
encryption breaks, the paradigm shifts entirely.Patience is the StrategyThe market
is currently punishing impatience. The rebound to $87,628 today is
encouraging, but the technical structure warns of one final flush.For
traders and investors, the strategy is clear:Watch $81,000: A break below this level
validates the trip to $74k.Wait for $74,000: This is the high-probability
zone for institutional accumulation.Target $130,000: Once the leverage is flushed,
the Q1 2026 rally should be swift and violent.As Paul
Howard notes, even with short-term volatility and exploits, the
"structural changes allowing institutional participation" are
creating a healthy long-term landscape. The bull run isn't over; it's just
shaking out the tourists before the next leg up.Before you leave, please also check my previous BTC price prediction and follow my X for up-to-date analytical clues:Bitcoin Price Analysis, FAQHow low can Bitcoin go? Based on
Fibonacci extensions and liquidity zones, the technical target for this
correction is $74,000. However, a breakdown below $81,000 is the key
confirmation signal needed for this move.Why is Bitcoin falling
today? Bitcoin is
facing a technical hangover from the "bull trap" set at $92,000 on
November 28. The market is also digesting macroeconomic shifts, including BoJ
rate hike fears and profit-taking after the November rally.What is the Bitcoin price
prediction for 2026? Following
the anticipated correction to $74,000, the forecast for Q1 2026 is bullish,
with a target to break the previous All-Time High of $126,000 and surpass $130,000.Is the crypto bull market
over? Likely not.
Most analysts view this as a healthy correction within a broader uptrend.
However, Saxo Bank warns of "outrageous" risks like Quantum Computing
breakthroughs that could destabilize the market, though these remain
low-probability "black swan" events.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Read More