Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 9The past few days have awakened another wave of uncertainty in the Middle East. Israel has led attacks against Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar.These headlines have stirred up further tensions with many political leaders denouncing the attack – The US was apparently not warned and Qatari air defenses hadn't seen any warning of air intrusion (bizarre).Oil surprisingly hasn't budged at all from the news – either the Market totally discounts war headlines anymore or participants estimate that this would not escalate.In North-America, labor markets seem to keep degrading from the tense Tariff policies as the (not-very market moving) US BLS employment revisions sent another degrading picture of the US labor market.Total employment creation since March 2025 has corrected by above 900K.The initial reaction was one of a USD short-lived correcrion and indices doubting at their relative highs.However, participants are starting to truly believe in bigger cuts, as US Indices finish the day at their daily highs. Read More:Dollar Index (DXY) faces a key test from upcoming PPI and CPI – potential reactionsCanadian Dollar under pressure from soft employment figures – CAD outlookCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Markets offer us a very unusual asset picture today: Gold, US Bonds and cryptocurrencies are down while Equities and the US Dollar both finish green.This comes even after the revised data and the Middle-East headlines. Markets are not considering war headlines anymore!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 9 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar saw a V-shape reversal overnight saving the currency from a range breakdown.The JPY and Japanese Stock indices also seem to really power through since PM Ishiba's resignation.On the other side of a reawakening FX picture, the CHF and the Euro are at the bottom of today's list.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tonight will see the release of China’s inflation prints at 21:30 ET. These numbers will feed directly into an actual Chinese economic recovery amid growing deflation.The real spotlight however falls on Wednesday’s U.S. session.At 08:30 A.M. ET, the market will receive a full set of PPI data (both headline and core expected at 0.3%) for August.Coming just a day before CPI, these figures carry heavy weight in shaping inflation expectations and should stir volatility across both bonds and FX.Finally, the evening session brings attention back to the Pacific, where at 19:15 ET, RBNZ’s Deputy Governor Hawkesby is scheduled to speak.His remarks will be closely monitored for any policy clues, particularly given the recent pressures on the New Zealand dollar and the cut already priced in for the next meeting.With U.S. inflation dynamics in the spotlight and central bank commentary closing the day, tomorrow’s session holds the potential for meaningful repricing across global markets. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian Dollar is under renewed selling pressure, currently ranking the second-worst performing major currency in 2025 after the US Dollar. The combination of a degrading domestic economy and ongoing tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on the loonie, leaving traders skeptical about near-term upside. Canada’s most recent GDP release confirmed sluggish growth, underscoring the drag from weaker domestic activity., with this bringing Bank of Canada cuts back to the table (close to 90% priced in) in spite of a core inflation still at 3.0%A surprising upbeat employment data in June did not generate enough traction for Canada to maintain its employment at higher levels, particularly when looking at Friday's -60K release. Canadian Employment in 2025, September – Source: TradingEconomics, Statistiques Canada The data reflects how US tariff pressures slow hiring momentum and tighten activity across key sectors. The unemployment rate in Canada is now at 7.1%, and its growth in the past month is something to watch.With these trends converging, the loonie remains vulnerable. This phenomenon aggravates, especially as European currencies in the GBP, CHF, and most strongly the Euro, have shown their best performance in years.Many CAD pairs at are key levels, let's spot a few of them to see if technicals could assist the Canadian currency – USDCAD / EURCAD / CADJPY. Read More: Dollar Index (DXY) faces a key test from upcoming PPI and CPI – potential reactionsBLS revisions dampen a decent crypto altcoin session – SOL, XRP, DOGE and ADA analysisCanadian Dollar pairs technical analysisUSDCAD – approaching its main resistance USDCAD 4H Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The North-American pair has been stuck in a 700 pip range since the 4th of September and despite not breaking the previous monthly highs yet, Greenback buyers are making a push.The momentum is pretty strong and not overbought yet which may be enough to at least test the 1.3854 Friday highs.Traders might still await more clarity from Data before pushing the US Dollar higher as the USD re-enters its range. Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3925 August 22 highs (most recent peak)1.3850 to 1.3860 Main resistance (1.3854 Friday highs)May Highs 1.40185Support Levels:immediate Pivot 1.38 Handle +/- 150 pipsKey longer-term pivot Zone 1.3750Main Support Zone 1.3675 to 1.3686EURCAD – just made new highs but momentum slows EURCAD 4H Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite being at the pairs' yearly highs, RSI momentum is indicating a short-term switch in Momentum in EURCAD.The Euro had rebounded spectacularly from August lows against other majors, which attracted further momentum in the pair after last Friday's Canadian data. The yearly peak attained this morning is at 1.6258.Sellers will have to show up in the pair to complete an ascending wedge formation, with a failure to do so pointing to a test of the July 2009 1.63 resistance zone, a level not seen in over 16 years.Watch for the current reactions as short-term mean reversion is bringing the pair below August highs. The immediate 8H candle is a doji and key Moving Averages are holding almost 1,000 pip below.Levels to place on your EURCAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.6258 current highs1.62 and Yearly highs resistance1.63 psychological resistance1.6320 July 2009 highsSupport Levels:1.61 Key pivot zone (confluence with 50-period MA)Support for higher trend 1.59July Lows around 1.58CADJPY – Broke its upward trend from May but arriving at key support CADJPY 8H Chart, September 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Loonie was looking strong against the JPY which had also been hurting from diverging rates – However, a double top marked in the pair led to a strong selloff.Since last Friday, sellers have brought the pair back to its immediate support at the 106.35 zone (+/- 50 pips) and undecisive mean-reversion might be looking to form.With Markets awaiting for key US data, FX might be stuck until then. Buyers failing to hold the immediate support would point to further downside in the pair.Levels to place on your CADJPY charts:Resistance Levels:Pivot Zone and key Moving averages 107.00September highs 108.002025 High resistance 108.70 to 109.00Support Levels:Immediate Support 106.35Main Support 105.00Next key Support/Pivot 103.30 to 103.80Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar continues to propel higher. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6618, up 0.40% on the day. The Aussie has shot up 1.5% since Thursday and is trading at six-week highs.Australian consumer, business confidence slideAustralia's consumer and business confidence have taken a hit, pointing to pessimism over the economic outlook. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% m/m in September, after a strong 5.7% gain in August. Westpac said that the index is back in "cautiously pessimistic" territory. Consumers remain uneasy over high interest rates, as the Reserve Bank has been slow to lower rates. The Westpac survey found that consumers are more concerned about unemployment and less likely to purchase a major household item.The NAB Business Confidence Index also headed lower, falling in August to 4 points, down from 8 in July. This marked a three-month low. Still, business conditions showed improvement and forward orders moved higher.Will the RBA lower rates?The Reserve Bank of Australia is coming off a quarter-point rate cut and meets next on September 30. The money markets don't expect a cut in September, as GDP rose in Q2 to 1.8% from 1.4% and core inflation jumped to 2.7% in July, up from 2.1%. A stronger economy and higher inflation will make it more difficult for the RBA to lower rates.We could see a rate cut in November and further easing early in the new year. Much will depend on the direction of inflation, the strength of the labor market, and the health of the Chinese economy.In the US, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a rate hike next week for the first time since December 2024. The weak nonfarm payrolls report has raised the likelihood of a half-point cut to 12%, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 88%, according to CME's FedWatch.AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6612. Next, there is resistance at 0.66320.6579 and 0.6559 are providing support AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 9, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Breaches 44000 Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Eyes Further Gains as Strategy Expands Holding and ETF Flows Remain StrongThe market shrugged off political uncertainty and rose for a fifth day as optimism about US interest rate reduction spread to Asia, fuelling a buying binge in technology shares.The MSCI all-country stock index was on track to reach another record high. In Asia, tech companies like TSMC and Alibaba helped stock markets rise. South Korean, Taiwanese, and Hong Kong shares went up, but Indonesian shares fell after the long-serving finance minister was dismissed. On Tuesday, Japan's Nikkei went above 44,000 for the first time ever. This was driven by optimism about a new trade deal and the possibility of more government spending.The Nikkei 225 Index jumped by as much as 1.24% to a record high of 44,185.73 during early trading. However, some investors sold their shares to take profits, causing the index to fall back slightly to 43,732.80 by midday, a 0.2% gain.The broader Topix index was up by 0.06% at midday, after earlier rising by 0.77%.Japan's lead trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, announced on X (formerly Twitter) on Tuesday that U.S. tariffs on Japanese cars will be lowered by September 16. This clarifies a trade deal that was made in July.Shares continued to rise, following strong gains on Monday after the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was known for being fiscally conservative. News agency Kyodo reported on Monday that Sanae Takaichi, a supporter of government spending and easier monetary policy, has decided to run for the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party.Stocks related to semiconductors rallied, following gains by their U.S. counterparts like Broadcom. This was supported by Broadcom's statement last Thursday that it expects strong revenue growth from artificial intelligence.The biggest gainer on the Nikkei was Advantest, a company that makes chip-testing equipment and supplies Nvidia. Its shares rose by more than 7%.Other stocks that saw notable increases were chip-making tool manufacturers Screen Holdings, which jumped 3.74%, and Tokyo Electron, which gained nearly 2%. Sony's stock also advanced by about 2%.European Open - French Politics Casts a Shadow After seeing gains during regular trading on Monday, European stock futures went down slightly.Specifically, futures for the EUROSTOXX 50 index dropped by 0.2%. Futures for the FTSE and DAX indexes also dipped, by 0.13% and 0.26% respectively.Over the last few days, markets have been through several major political events. In Britain, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigned, and in Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stepped down. In France, lawmakers voted to remove Prime Minister Francois Bayrou from office. Argentina's President Javier Milei's party faced a significant loss, and Indonesia unexpectedly replaced its long-time finance minister.Investors in Europe are now waiting to see who French President Emmanuel Macron will choose as the country's fifth prime minister in less than two years.So far, Macron has not chosen to call an early election and seems determined to name a new prime minister, potentially from a center-left political party.There are no rules dictating who Macron must pick or how quickly he has to make the decision, but his office has said he will appoint someone in the next few days.Despite this political uncertainty, the price of French government bond futures in Asia has changed very little.On the FX front, the U.S. dollar index dropped to a low of 97.323 during trading in Asia, its weakest point since July 24.The euro gained 0.1% during trading in Asia, reaching a value of up to 1.1778, which is its highest level since July 24.The Japanese yen became stronger against the dollar, reversing its weakness from Monday, after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned. The yen was 0.3% stronger at 147.125 yen to the dollar as people began to speculate on who would be the next leader.In other currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.2% to $0.6606, while the New Zealand dollar also went up by 0.2% to 0.5949. The offshore Chinese yuan was 0.1% stronger at 7.1193 yuan per dollar, and the British pound rose by 0.2% to 1.3576 so far today.For more on the Euro, read EUR/USD Technical: Euro bullish breakout, what’s next?Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices went up on Tuesday, continuing their gains. This was because the oil-producing group OPEC+ announced a smaller production increase than what many people expected. At the same time, there are ongoing worries that potential new sanctions on Russia could tighten the global oil supply.Brent crude oil rose by 0.77% to $66.53 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed by 0.8% to $62.76 per barrel.For more on Oil prices, read WTI Oil Rallies 1.8% as Russian Supply Concerns Outweigh Modest OPEC + Output HikeGold prices reached a new record high on Tuesday. The price was boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar and a drop in bond yields. Demand for gold increased because there are now stronger expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.The price of gold was up 0.2% at $3,642.09 per ounce, after it had previously hit an all-time high of $3,659.10 earlier in the day. US gold futures for December delivery also rose slightly by 0.1% to $3,682.10.Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet with a couple of Central Bank policymakers from the Euro Area, SNB and BoE speaking.Beyond that markets will keep an eye on political developments in France, as well as an Apple event later in the day which could affect Apple and US stock indices. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX has been stuck in consolidation the last few days and remains in a channel.At present price is in the middle of the channel and is currently testing the 100-day MA which is serving as resistance.A clean break of this level could lead the index toward the top end of the channel with resistance at 24000 and 24080 respectively.A failure to do so could the index revisit the recent lows around the 23470 handle before the lower end of the channel around 23212 comes into focus.DAX Daily Chart, September 9. 2025 Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “EUR/USD Technical: Euro on the brink of a medium-term bullish breakout”, published on 1 September 2025.The EUR/USD has formed the expected bullish breakout above the former medium-term descending trendline resistance, which was in place from the 1 July 2025 high, and rallied by 0.8% to print an intraday high of 1.1778 on Tuesday, 9 September, during the Asia session at the time of writing. After last Friday's, 5 September, weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data print for August, this week’s key risk events that are likely to trigger a significant volatile movement in the EUR/USD will be the ECB monetary policy decision cum ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, and the release of the US core CPI inflation rate for August, both of them taking place around the same time on Thursday, 11 September between 12.15 pm to 12.45 pm GMT.ECB is likely to signal the end of its interest rate cut cycle Fig. 1: The Eurozone/US implied policy interest rate curve spread with EUR/USD as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave its deposit facility rate unchanged at 2% for the second consecutive policy meeting this Thursday.Latest data from monthly implied future policy rate curves, derived from short-term interest rate futures for both the Eurozone and the US, suggest a high probability that the ECB has reached the end of its current rate-cut cycle.The Eurozone/US implied policy interest rate curve spread has inched higher to -1.97% in October 2025, from -2.33% in September 2025, and rose steadily in the next few months to -1.62% by January 2026. Also, the curve spread has shifted upwards from three months ago (see Fig. 1).A pause in the ECB’s rate-cut cycle, combined with expectations of an imminent Fed dovish pivot, suggests the euro is likely to continue appreciating against the greenback in the medium term.Let’s now examine the latest technical factors on the EUR/USD to determine the next potential short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and its key levels to watch ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy decision and the release of the US core CPI inflation data. Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 9 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias with key short-term pivotal support at 1.1700 for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 1.1830 and 1.1890/1.1910 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster and the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 1 August 2025 low).Key elements The price action of the EUR/USD has reintegrated above its 20-day moving average since last Friday, 5 September, which supports the ongoing minor bullish impulsive up move sequence.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has not displayed a bearish divergence condition at its overbought zone, suggesting that the short-term bullish momentum remains intact.The yield spread between the 2-year German Bund and the US Treasury note has continued to narrow further after its bullish breakout on Thursday, 28 August. It narrowed to a current level of -1.57% from -1.68% on last Wednesday, 3 September. This development indicates a relative decline in the yield attractiveness of the 2-year US Treasury versus its German counterpart, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the US dollar against the euro.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 1.1700 short-term key support negates the bullish tone on the EUR/USD to open scope for another round of minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 1.1665 (also the 20-day moving average).A break below 1.1665 may trigger a deeper slide towards 1.1617 next. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

All eyes are laying on one asset class in Markets: Precious MetalsThe usual suspect: Gold, A.K.A. The Bullion (or just "bully" for people who are caught short).Gold has always been a very complex asset. It does not have a face value yet it serves as store of value for many Central Banks. It cannot be eaten yet people always starve for it.And these days, it not-only is at the center of the 2025 Trump-Administration deglobalization theme but also a good edge against every potential catalyst against positive sentiment this year:Rate cuts? Wars? Fiscal catastrophes? Political instability (France, Japan, US, UK, ...)Bonds haven't seen much demand since the end of the 2022 hike cycle and stocks are at all-time highs, therefore the question is more one of currency-debasing rather than a purely risk-off Market.Metals had been stabilizing and correcting from their relative highs as war situations seemed to be resolving, central banks had cut their purchases and a signs of higher-than-projected inflation pushed the FOMC to hold their rates higher (typically negative for Gold as a non-yielding assets).However, Markets had calmed from their higher term overbought conditions. The latest change in Powell's tone at Jackson Hole followed by an increasingly compromised FED Independence led to a massive rebound in metals, propulsed by both Gold and Silver.Let's attack a high to intraday timeframe analysis for Gold as it keeps breaking records, and identify levels of interest. Read More:Silver Price: XAG/USD poised to extend gains further, support likely at $40.60US indices remain uncertain ahead of CPI data – S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones outlookMulti-timeframe analysis for Gold, starting from the Weekly to intradayGold Weekly timeframe Gold Weekly Chart, September 2025, Source: TradingView Taking a look back to the weekly charts really helps to see how significant this ongoing move in Gold is.Some key levels and their significant events point to what trends or themes helped Gold to rally so much and actually find its own local tops.The latest one, leading to a consolidation between May to end-August 2025 was due to uncertainty on the real impact of tariffs. They hadn't seemed to hurt economies yet, particularly the US and conflicts were resolving at the same time (Israel-Iran, easing conflict in Eastern Europe... This one aged like fine milk).The current move seems to form a typical 3 legged impulsive move with the 3rd one starting most recently. Elliott Wave analysis, which is very useful to evaluate trending markets, helps to check the state of a current trend and the usual 3rd impulsive tends to be the final one.The one question is: Where and how could it stop?There's an infinity of potential answers but some key changes of theme would be necessary: A more restrictive US balance sheet, forcing other governments to do the same; conflicts resolving, particularly the ongoing technology cold-war between the occident (G7) and the orient (Russia, China) or more simply a re-globalization; Finally, Central Banks Independence (i.e. the FOMC) being able to reborn.Gold Daily Chart Gold Daily Chart, 8 September 2025, Source: TradingView There is a lot to see on this daily chart but focus on these few elements:The technical uptrend from October 2024 into the April 22nd 2025 $3,500 top in overbought conditions led to a 4-month consolidation which took the RSI back to neutral and now, the ongoing up-trend is heading back to overbought.Remember that overbought don't mean a top, particularly in such strong trends: A tight bull channel (no red candle closing below the prior green) shows that the current price discovery is one of bullish dominance.Any such bear candle may attract further mean-reversion.However, some wicks are appearing after today's bull candle as the first Fibonacci-induced targets (Yellow Zone) is getting reached.The timing coincides with Markets needing to know if the FOMC cut will be a 25 bps (consolidation/slight selloff in Gold ceteris paribus) or a 50 bps (dovish FED = metals keep flying).The answer will be found in this week's Inflation data release (PPI and CPI).Levels of interest for Gold trading: Support:$3,400 to $3,500 past ATH Zone, Now Pivot/Support$3,300 Major Support$3,000 Main psychological levelResistance and potential technical targets (due to all-time highs, can only use potential targets):Current session highs and ATH $3,646Fibonacci-Extension 1 from April Lows to April highs ($3,640 to $3,705) (yellow square)Potential, Fibonacci-Extension 2 from 2018 to Oct 2024 induced target: $3,750 to $3,815 (Purple square on Weekly)Gold 4H Chart Gold 4H Chart, 8 September 2025, Source: TradingView One highlight of this 4H intraday chart is to see how small reversals don't imply bigger trend reversals. Generally, longer term reversals show signs of forming and (tend to) start with a slowdown in the trend, except for a fundamental black swan.We are however reaching a potential fib-target, which may imply some slowing in the buying in the waiting of US Inflation data – Do consider that the tight bull channel is still active.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: WTI Oil Rallies 1.8% as Russian Supply Concerns Outweigh Modest OPEC + Output HikeBitcoin (BTC/USD) has been moving higher at a grind since the beginning of September and is up nearly 2% over the last two days.Friday saw a significant spike for Bitcoin in a similar manner to Gold and other US Dollar denominated assets, but in the case of Bitcoin, the gains were surrendered before the end of the day.Whales are Offloading Coins at the Fastest Pace Since 2022 According to @caueconomy on X and on-chain data, in the last thirty days, whale reserves have fallen by more than 100,000 BTC, signaling intense risk aversion among large investors.This selling pressure has been penalizing the price structure in the short term, ultimately pushing prices below US$108,000 last week.At this time, we are still seeing these reductions in the portfolios of major players, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks. Source: CryptoQuant The activity by whales may be concerning for market participants. Especially if institutions continue to dump holdings but this may be more clear once we see the ETF flows over the last week or so.Bitcoin ETF Flows The ETF flows through to Friday last week finished net positive after two strong days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Net outflows on Thursday and Friday were negative but not greater than the inflows earlier in the week.This shows that demand still remains in the market after the recent selloff. As a further nod to confidence, ETF flows were strong in the last week of August as well. Source: Farside Investors Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings Last week, two public companies, Strategy and Metaplanet, bought over $230 million worth of Bitcoin. According to their separate announcements, their combined purchase of 2,091 Bitcoins was about two-thirds (66%) of all the new Bitcoins created by miners during that time.On September 8, Strategy announced it had bought 1,955 of those Bitcoins for $217.4 million, which was about 62% of all the coins mined that week. After this purchase, Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings reached 638,460, valued at $71.6 billion. This means the company has an estimated profit of about 51.8% on its total investment of $47.17 billion.The company stated in a filing that it used money from its stock program, which raised capital from Strife, Strike, and MSTR stock, to fund the purchase. In 2025 alone, Strategy has raised more than $19 billion to buy Bitcoin.Moving forward, later this week and US CPI data will have an impact on rate cut expectations for the Fed meeting next week. This could be another catalyst for Bitcoin with a weak CPI print likely to help Bitcoin continue its advance.Technical Analysis - BTC/USD From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is hovering just below a key area of resistance at 112916.The last two days has seen Bitcoin rise near 2%, however there are some signs that could worry bulls in the short term.The current four-hour candle looks set to close bearish and as a inside bar which could hint at some short-term downside.This could bring the RSI period-14 to retest the 50 neutral level and this could be used to gauge the next move for Bitcoin.A break below the 50 level could be a sign of growing bearish momentum with a retest of recent lows at 109500 and 108000 becoming a possibility.A bounce of the 50 level could be the precursor for a move beyond the 112916 handle before markets begin eyeing resistance at the 115000 and 117000 handles.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, September 8, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian dollar is showing little movement at the start of the week. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3820, down 0.06% on the day.Canada's employment sinksCanada's labor market is deteriorating quickly. In August, employment slipped by 65.5 thousand, the sharpest decline since January 2022. This was well off the market estimate of a 7.5 thousand gain and following the July reading of -40.8 thousand. That's the loss of over 100 thousand jobs in just two months. The massive loss of jobs has been driven by the US-Canada trade war, as many Canadian products have been slapped with 35% tariffs. There was more bad news, as the unemployment rate jumped to 7.1% from 6.9% in July, higher than the market estimate of 7.0%. This marked the highest unemployment rate since August 2021.The Bank of Canada will be concerned with the weak job numbers, which support the case for a rate cut. However, with core CPI around 3%, well above the 2% target, the Bank of Canada is hesitant to lower rates. The next inflation report comes out a day before the September 17 rate meeting, and could determine whether the BoC holds or cuts rates.US nonfarm payrolls fall to 22 thousandUS nonfarm payrolls disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021.The money markets responded to the weak nonfarm payrolls report by fully pricing in a rate cut at next week's meeting, with a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut and a 10% chance of a half-point cut, according to CME's FedWatch. Prior to the jobs release, there was a 0% chance of a half-point cut.USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD has pushed below support at 1.3830 and is testing support at 1.38211.3843 and 1.3852 are the next resistance lines USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, September 8, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: A potential bullish reversal looms after a 4% decline as market breadth improves with earnings upgrade”, published on 22 August 2025. The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have staged the expected bullish reversal after the test on the 41,760 key short-term pivotal support on 2 September 2025 (printed an intraday low of 41,688) and rallied by 3.6% to hit 43,203 on last Friday. 5 September.In today’s Asia session, it gapped up and added 1.7% to print a current intraday high of 43,850, just a whisker away from the recent all-time high of 43,942 printed on 18 August, on the backdrop of the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba on Sunday.Japan’s PM contenders are likely to advocate for fiscal stimulus measures The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members are likely to vote for their leader in early October, with two leading contenders being Sanae Takaichi, a former internal affairs minister, and Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of a former prime minister.Both contenders tend to have a more liberal stance towards fiscal policy and support more fiscal stimulus measures.Let’s now take a closer look at the latest key technical elements to decipher its next short-term (1 to 3 days) directional bias and key levels to watch on the Japan 225 CFD Index. Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 8 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: JGB yield curves (30-YR/2-YR & 10-YR/2-YR) major trends as of 8 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain the bullish bias on the Japan 225 CFD Index with a tightened short-term pivotal support now at 43,060/42,850 for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 44,050/44,110 and 44,840/44,970 (Fibonacci extension cluster and towards the upper boundary of a minor ascending channel from 1 August 2025 low) (see Fig. 1).Key elements Price actions of the Japan 225 have traded back above the 20-day moving average, which reinforces the ongoing short-term/minor bullish impulsive up move sequence.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has not flashed at a bearish divergence condition as it hit its overbought zone (above 70 level) in today’s Asia session.The major bullish breakout (steepening conditions) of the JGB yield curves since June 2022 has a direct correlation with the movements of the Nikkei 225, and the major uptrend phases of the JGB yield curves' steepening remain intact so far, in turn, may trigger a further positive feedback loop into the Nikkei 225 (see Fig. 2).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 43,060/42,850 key short-term support for the Japan 225 CFD Index negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 42,260. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Japan PM Ishiba Resigns Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Recovers but the Outlook Remains Murky. WIll NFP Data Serve as a Catalyst?Following weeks of public pressure due to his party's second national election loss, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba has announced his resignation. This has triggered a leadership contest that may cause market instability.The Topix, jumped 1.3% to a new all-time high of 3,146.58. The Nikkei 225 index, which tracks top Japanese companies, also rose by 1.45% to 43,643.81, which is close to its own record. The value of the yen dropped by 0.4% against the U.S. dollar, with one dollar now worth 148 yen.Japanese government bond prices were initially stable but fell later in the day, causing their yields (the return for investors) to increase. The yield on 20-year bonds went up by 3.5 basis points to 2.67%, and the yield on 30-year bonds rose by 6 basis points to 3.285%, which is the highest it has ever been.Yields on long-term Japanese bonds have been rising recently because of international worries about government debt and due to the internal pressure on Prime Minister Ishiba from his party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). At the same time, the Nikkei stock index recently dropped from its record high last month. Source: LSEG A leading candidate to replace Ishiba as head of the LDP is Sanae Takaichi. She is a supporter of "Abenomics," the economic policies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was known for large-scale government spending and a very loose monetary policy.On the Nikkei index, more stocks rose than fell, with 197 advancing and only 26 declining. The biggest winners were the chip design company Socionext, which saw its stock price increase by 8%, and Mazda Motor Corp, which jumped by 7.2%. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, a company poised to gain from any increase in defense spending, also surged 3.3%.Additionally, two major players in the Japanese artificial intelligence (AI) sector, Advantest and SoftBank Group, saw their shares rise by 4.4% and 2.1%, respectively.China Exports Hit 6-Month Low In August 2025, China's exports grew by 4.4% compared to the same month last year, totaling $321.8 billion. This was a slower rate than the 7.2% growth in July and was below the expected 5% increase. The slowdown, which made this the weakest month for exports since February, was primarily caused by a temporary decrease in tariff tensions and a drop in demand from China's main consumer, the United States.On August 11, China and the U.S. extended their tariff agreement for 90 days, which kept existing tariffs in place. While exports to Japan, Taiwan, Australia, ASEAN, and the EU all grew significantly, exports to the U.S. plummeted by 33.1% and those to South Korea fell by 1.4%. Over the first eight months of 2025, China's total exports increased by 5.9% to $2.45 trillion, with notable growth in specific categories such as fertilizer, ships, and cars.European Open - French No-Confidence Vote in Focus European stock markets had a good start on Monday as a week of significant events began. The main story is the political uncertainty in France, which is likely to need a new prime minister for the fifth time in three years.The current French Prime Minister, Francois Bayrou, is expected to lose a no-confidence vote today. This is happening while the country, Europe's second-largest economy, is trying to manage its large national debt. France is also facing its first of several credit rating reviews this week, which could affect how lenders view its ability to repay its loans.The overall European stock market index, the STOXX 600, went up by 0.33%, while France's main index, the CAC 40, rose by 0.4%.Despite these early gains, French stocks have not performed as well as the broader European market this year. This is due to investor worries about government spending and debt, which have caused long-term bond yields (the return on an investment in bonds) to reach their highest levels in several years.In other company news, the investment bank Goldman Sachs downgraded its rating on the airline RyanAir, causing its shares to drop by 2%. On the other hand, shares of the retailer Marks and Spencer increased by 2.2% after the brokerage firm Citi upgraded its rating on the company to "buy."Additionally, shares of the Dutch company ASML went up by 0.7% after a news report stated that the company is set to become the largest owner of the French artificial intelligence startup, Mistral AI.On the FX front, The Japanese yen dropped significantly in value during trading in Asia. At one point, the U.S. dollar gained as much as 0.78% against the yen before settling down to a 0.1% increase for the day, with one dollar trading at 147.625 yen.Similarly, the yen fell to its lowest value in over a year against both the euro and the British pound. A single euro was worth 173.13 yen, and one pound was worth 199.53 yen.The British pound slightly rose by 0.1% to $1.352, building on its more than 0.5% gain from Friday. The euro remained steady at $1.1727 after reaching a high not seen in over a month on Friday.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a group of other major currencies, slightly decreased by 0.2% to 97.7, following a more than 0.5% drop on Friday.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices went up by more than $1 on Monday, recovering some of the value they lost last week. This was partly due to the possibility of new sanctions on Russian oil following an attack on Ukraine.OPEC+, a group of major oil producers, announced it would slightly increase production starting in October, but the amount was small.Brent crude oil rose by $1.24 (1.9%) to $66.74 per barrel. At the same time, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased by $1.17 (1.9%) to $63.04 per barrel.Gold prices remained strong near their all-time high on Monday, getting closer to the key level of $3,600 per ounce. This was supported by growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month, especially after a weaker-than-expected jobs report was released last week.The price of spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,593.79 per ounce. On Friday, gold had already reached a record high of $3,599.89.Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet with Sentix investor confidence data the main release to focus on.The US session will also seem to be a quiet one, with the main area of focus being NY Fed inflation expectations.The week will get busy from Wednesday onward with a host of high impact data releases with the US particularly in focus. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 continues to hold above the 100-day MA following a trendline break last week.The trendline break still hints at further upside with the RSI period-14 hovering above the neutral 50 level.If the neutral 50 level holds this would be another sign that bullish momentum remains dominant.This could see the FTSE continue its move higher toward the all-time highs.Immediate resistance rests at 9250, 9271 and 9308.Immediate support may be found at 9219, 9180 and 9128.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 9. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “GBP/USD Technical: Sterling torpedoed by spike in 30-year gilt yield, watch the 1.3315/3280 key support”, published on 2 September 2025.The price actions of the GBP/USD have shaped the expected minor corrective decline in the past two sessions to print an intraday low of 1.3333 on Wednesday, 3 September, just whiskers above the pre-defined 1.3315/1.3280 key medium-term pivotal support highlighted in our last publication. Let’s now determine its next short-term (1 to 3 days) directional bias and key levels to watch as we await the key US labour data release: non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for August at 1230 GMT today. Fig. 1: GBP/USD minor trend as of 5 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) The minor corrective decline of -1.9% (high to low) of the GBP/USD that spanned from 14 August 2025 high to 3 September 2025 low may have ended.Bullish bias above 1.3395 key short-term pivotal for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 1.3545, 1.3590/1.3610, and 1.3650/1.3680.Key elements The GBP/USD has shaped a minor bullish reversal right above the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending trendline in place since 13 January 2025 low on 3 September 2025.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the GBP/USD has just staged a bullish breakout above a parallel descending resistance and flashed an earlier bullish divergence condition at its oversold region on 3 September 2025.The 1.3395 key short-term pivotal support is defined by a former minor swing high formed on 2 September 2025 during the US session and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the ongoing minor rally from the 3 September 2025 low to the current intraday high of 5 September at the time of writing.The 2-year yield spread premium between the UK gilt and US Treasury note has continued to expand (inched higher) since the 3 September 2025 level of 0.29% to a current level of 0.37%. These observations suggest that short-term UK gilt is relatively more attractive than US Treasury notes in terms of yield differential, in turn, putting upside pressure on GBP/USD.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 1.3395 in GBP/USD would invalidate the bullish outlook, opening the door to a minor corrective decline toward the key medium-term support zone at 1.3315/1.3280. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Extends Gains, President Trump Signs Executive Order on Japan Deal Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Recovers but the Outlook Remains Murky. WIll NFP Data Serve as a Catalyst?On Friday morning, the positive feeling from a strong day on Wall Street carried over to Asian stock markets. This happened because new information continues to show that the U.S. job market is slowing down, which makes investors more confident that the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates this month.As a result, Asian stocks rose by 0.7%, and stock markets in mainland China also bounced back after they had dropped on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei .N225 rose 0.9% and Taiwan's stock benchmark .TWII climbed 1.1%. Both those markets are close to recent record highs.Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI added 0.8%, while mainland Chinese blue chips .CSI300 advanced 1%. Australian stocks .AXJO gained 0.5%.For more on the Hang Seng, read Hang Seng Index Technical: Recent sell-off overdone, bullish trend remains intactIn Japan's bond market, the return on 30-year government bonds fell for a second day on Friday, moving further away from the record high it had reached on Wednesday of 3.255%.In other news, U.S. President Trump signed an order to make a trade agreement with Japan official. Under the deal, the United States will apply a tax of up to 15% on most goods it imports from Japan. In return, Japan has promised to set up a $550 billion fund to invest in the U.S. The two countries had agreed to this deal back in July but were still finalizing the details until now.UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates, June Figure Revised Lower In July, retail sales in the UK grew by a strong 0.6%, which was better than experts had predicted. This increase was driven by a boost in online shopping and clothing sales, helped by good weather and extra spending related to the Women's EURO 2025 soccer tournament.However, the good news was dampened by a major correction to the sales figures for June, which turned out to be much weaker than first reported. Compared to the same time last year, July sales were up 1.1%. Despite the solid performance in July, the bigger picture suggests a slowdown, as sales over the last three months actually fell, ending a year-long period of growth. Source: TradingEconomics European Open - European Stocks Edge Higher European stocks are up slightly this morning as investors cautiously wait for the important U.S. jobs report to be released later today.Overall, the market is on track to finish a very up-and-down week with a small gain. Technology stocks are the best performers today, boosted by the Swedish company Hexagon, whose shares jumped nearly 7% after it announced a multi-billion dollar deal to sell a part of its business to a U.S. firm.On the downside, the Danish wind farm company Orsted saw its stock fall 1.3% after it lowered its profit forecast because of a lack of wind. Additionally, shares in the banking software company Temenos dropped sharply after it announced its CEO was leaving immediately.On the FX front, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly against other major currencies on Friday morning.The Japanese yen gained strength after Japan finalized a trade deal with the United States that will lower U.S. taxes on imported Japanese cars. USD/JPY trading at 148.21. The New Zealand dollar also climbed, benefiting from a positive day in Asian stock markets.In other movements, the euro was up 0.1% to 1.1666 to the US Dollar with the British pound, and Australian dollar also seeing small increases against the U.S. dollar. Despite today's dip, the dollar's overall value is still on track to finish the week higher than it started.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices are falling for the third day in a row on Friday and are now on track to record their first weekly loss in three weeks.The price decline is being caused by two main factors: growing expectations that major producers will soon increase the supply of oil, and worries about weaker demand for fuel. These demand concerns were heightened by a surprise report showing that the amount of stored crude oil in the U.S. has increased.Currently, the price for Brent crude, the global standard, is around $66.80 a barrel, while the main U.S. oil price is about $63.25 a barrel.Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session has already seen a glut of data releases this morning with UK retail sales and German industrial production. The rest of the session brings Euro Area GDP data (revised) numbers before attention shifts to the US session.All eyes today are on the U.S. jobs report for August, which is due to be released at 12:30 GMT time. This report is seen as particularly crucial because other data earlier this week has already pointed to a weakening U.S. job market.Investors are watching closely, as many are already expecting the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its meeting later this month. A weak jobs number today would likely confirm those expectations.For more on the NFP release, read NFP Preview: US Jobs Report & Implications for the DXY, Gold (XAU/USD) & Dow Jones (DJIA) For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has had an interesting week. After completing the Head and Shoulder breakout and reaching the sell target, the index bottomed out on September 2.We did have a potential double bottom print on September 3 before a rally higher materialized breaking the descending trendline in play from the recent all-time high.The next moves for the FTSE will be crucial. Today's UK retail sales data may bode well for the index but overall sentiment may shift after today's US Jobs data.This could have a knock on impact on global markets and weigh on equities in the UK and Europe as well.Immediate resistance rests at 9271 before the swing high at 9308 comes into focus.On the downside the FTSE found support this morning at the 100-day MA before bouncing higher. Below that support is provided by 9180 handle and then the 200-day MA at 9165.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 5. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “Hang Seng Index Technical: End of minor corrective decline, start of new bullish impulsive up move”, published on 13 August 2025.The Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy for Hang Seng Index futures) delivered the anticipated bullish run between 13 and 25 August, reaching the short-term resistance level of 25,750 and posting an intraday high of 25,946 on 25 August. Thereafter, its price actions have evolved into a choppy minor corrective decline sequence of -4.3% (high to low) within a medium-term uptrend phase from 25 August to 28 August, as short-term traders took profit due to fears of an overheated bull-run seen in the China “A” shares market towards the end of AugustMargin financing in the Shanghai stocks rose to record highs in line with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index hitting a 10-year high, bringing the memories of the bursting of the 2015 stock market bubble in China that saw a massive decline of close to -50% in their respective benchmark stock indices.Fundamentals continued to improve in the Chinese stock markets Fig. 1: China CSI 300 1-month forward EPS growth y/y as of Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Fig. 2: China non-official Manufacturing & Services PMI as of Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) The monthly average of the 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) growth for China’s CSI 300 (comprising component stocks from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges) has improved significantly in the past eight months; it rose from -7.4% y/y in January 2025 to -1.8% y/y in August 2025 (see Fig. 1).The privately compiled (non-official) Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which track small and medium-sized enterprises in China, have returned to expansionary territory. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in August 2025, recovering from a near three-year low of 48.3 in May. Similarly, the Services PMI strengthened to 53 in August, up from 50.6 in June (see Fig. 2).These improvements in leading Chinese economic indicators suggest that deflation risks have eased, creating the potential for a positive feedback loop that could further support the Chinese stock market and, by extension, benefit Hong Kong equities.Right now, let’s take a deep dive into the short-term (1 to 3 days) directional bias and key levels to watch on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index. Fig. 3: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 5 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) The minor corrective decline from the 25 August 2025 high to the 28 August 2025 low of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index is likely to have ended where a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move is in progress.Bullish bias above 24,880 key medium-term pivotal support for the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index. A clearance above 25,490 intermediate resistances sees the next resistances coming in at 25,690, 25,890, and 26,120 in the first step (see Fig. 3).Key elements The 24,880 key medium-term pivotal support on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index is defined by the rising 50-day moving average, the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 2 June 2025 low, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior short-term bullish impulsive up move sequence from 1 August 2025 low to 25 August 2025 high.Today’s price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index have reintegrated back above the 20-day moving average, now acting as an intermediate support at 25,260.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index has flashed out a bullish divergence condition at its oversold zone seen on Thursday’s US session, 4 September.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 24,880 key support jeopardizes the medium-term uptrend phase of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index for an extension of the corrective decline to expose the next support zone of 24,730/24,620 in the first step. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 5.Today finally met the eternal weeks of waiting for this month's Non-Farm Payrolls release. And the report was not good.You can access the details of the report right here.Markets were preparing to a slowdown after a week of labor data pointing toward a slowdown in hiring and job openings, with rate cut expectations lifting risk-assets from the past week's tumble.However, the harsh reality of tariffs hitting the market may now awaken a deeper fear of a longer-run economic stagnation for the US, as the FED may really have been a bit late to the curve to resume the sparse cutting cycle which delivered an initial cut a year prior.Initially, all assets appreciated from the downbeat US Dollar, but as participants digested the numbers, US Equities tumbled and the gold/bonds duo got lifted higher.All the daily moves have seen some form of profit-taking stop to them, but overall, the picture and tone really have changed since this morning. Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook – Moving forward from NFP, onto Inflation weekCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Except for Bonds which posted a very unusual strong performance (logical due to the renewed cut pricing and downbeat economic projections), the usual suspects to diversify from the US Dollar have performed strongly in today's Non-Farm Payrolls session.Decreasing prospects for economic activity added to yet-another increase in OPEC+ Supply has sent oil back to its 2-week lows. Some details on this coming up next week.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 5 – Source: OANDA Labs Both North-American currencies in the USD and CAD have got destroyed from their weak labor reports.As a matter of fact, the Canadian Dollar saw another wave of selloff towards the end of the afternoon while the USD pulled back a little. The NA labor data did help antipodeans like the NZD, best performer of the session and the CHF which keeps feasting on USD weakness despite their deflationary numbers.The JPY also appreciated the lower rate prospects for the US, third best performer on the session.A look at Economic data releasing on Monday's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The new week kicks off with a heavy dose of Asian data.On Sunday 19:50 ET, Japan publishes its Q2 GDP figures (quarterly and annualized), alongside the GDP deflator and July Current Account. These will set the tone for JPY traders early in the session.At 23:00 ET, the focus shifts to China with August’s trade balance, including exports, imports, and the USD-denominated balance. Given recent concerns over global demand after today's downbeat NFP report, these numbers will be closely scrutinized.Heading into Monday, Europe opens with German Industrial Production and Trade Balance data at 02:00 A.M. ET, followed shortly after by the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (04:30 A.M. ET). These should give a clearer picture of whether sentiment in the bloc is stabilizing after recent soft patches, as markets will also prepare for the ECB rate decision on Thursday.Later in the day, the UK releases BRC Like-for-Like Retail Sales (19:01 ET), followed by Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence (20:30 ET), wrapping up the session for AUD watchers.Despite the more precise economic outlook traders should receive after the Chinese trade data, next week will really focus on the US inflation data starting Tuesday. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 8.Sentiment was surprisingly positive in today's session with Japanese equities leading risk-assets (appreciating PM Ishiba's resigning?) and a few rebounds in cryptos.Gold and Silver maintain their stellar rise in yet another buying wave. Political turmoil in France and Japan (Prime Ministers getting ousted in both countries) and the Israel-Hamas war continuing have assisted both metals in their ascent.FX movement is still subdued, with Markets awaiting this week's US inflation data to attempt to solve the FED rate cut puzzle. Soft prints could easily point to a 50 bps jumbo-cut to restart the cut cycle.The opening session to the North-American equity week has been ok, but not too great. The Nasdaq index has led US indices, propulsed by semiconductors and tech-firms (Broadcom, Oracle, Palantir) but the extent of today's move has also been reduced.The trading week may only begin with Wednesday's PPI report, but keep an eye on the latest war headlines which could create some flows. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) bullies its way to new record highs – Potential targets and fundamental outlookBitcoin (BTC/USD) Eyes Further Gains as Strategy Expands Holding and ETF Flows Remain StrongCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView The session was very volatile for Oil, particularly after this weekend's largest ever Russian attacks that initially outweighed a higher than expected OPEC+ supply announcement. Sellers did lean on the upward pressure to deflate today's rise but oil is still up about 0.60% in today's session.For the rest, metals outperformed and a few crypto names like Solana, Doge and XRP have lifted a mixed picture in digital assets.As seen in the introduction, the FX and Equity picture has been subdued, but to resume simply, Equities are up with Japan's Nikkei leading and European stocks also enjoying the weekly open.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 8 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar is largely the loser of today's session with the Kiwi really enjoying the idea of a weaker Greenback.NZD had been one of the most heavily sold currency since July, with a lot of them recovering except for the antipodean.Movement is still relatively small and the US Dollar is still holding its range, which implies that mean-reverting moves may still be prevalent until Wednesday's PPI and Thursday's CPI.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tonight and tomorrow's sessions should be pretty slow throughout except for some small data for the GBP and AUD.Tomorrow evening's Chinese CPI data could be market moving, but for the rest, key participants are awaiting Wednesday.Also, keep an eye for tomorrow's BLS revisions at 10:00 which will provide a lookback on data released since the beginning of 2025 and may largely impact sentiment if any big diversion materializes. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 4.We can blabber all we want about the FED's independence and how it affects markets (in short, it really does, look at metals performance in the past two weeks), but the main idea is that Markets really are just messing around ahead of tomorrow's quintessential Non-Farm Payrolls.About the FED's independence, Stephen Miran, who is currently Chair of the Economic Advisers for the White House, testified as he will be starting to occupy the role left from the recently departed FED Governor Kugler.His testimony was interesting to say the least, very loyal to the Trump Administration's words.One of the most curious thing was his words about how the current migration policy is deflationary (housing pressures down) while tariffs are just a one-off kick to inflation.He still did emphasize the FED's independence, but words are just words, we will see how he approaches future interviews.The FED Blackout period (when no words can be said about economic or financial policies by Federal Reserve members) begins tomorrow evening; Expect many surprise FED interviews in tomorrow's session. Read More:US Indices all regain their recent tops as fears for tomorrow's data abate – Key levels for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ahead of the NFPSilver nears its all-time highs, where to look next? XAG higher timeframe outlookNFP Preview: US Jobs Report & Implications for the DXY, Gold (XAU/USD) & Dow Jones (DJIA)Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView North-American equities got a huge boost while Cryptos have corrected sharply (still holding their relative lows detailed in our most recent Crypto Market analysis).Metals didn't move any further today as commodity traders are all looking at each other (and they are all looking at the US Dollar) ahead of tomorrow's NFP.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 4 – Source: OANDA Labs The Forex Market has been an absolute snoozer since mid-August, as all eyes are turning to metals.The lack of action in the US Dollar strengthens this trend, but things should change heavily after tomorrow.Look at the US Dollar (Dollar Index, DXY) to spot how FX markets interpret tomorrow's data.With the most recent consolidation, look for breakouts above or below the range.You can access the details of the range right here.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The late Thursday session still has a couple of items left for JPY traders, with Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings (19:30 ET) closing out the day.Friday, however, is where markets’ attention is fully centered.The European session opens with German Factory Orders (02:00 A.M. ET) followed by UK Retail Sales numbers, while at 05:00 A.M. ET, the Eurozone posts both its Q2 Employment Change and GDP estimates.The spotlight, though, shines on North America at 08:30 A.M. ET:The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release (check out our previews), alongside unemployment rate and wage data, whichwill dominate market sentiment.This is the key release of the week and is expected to set the tone for Fed policy expectations into the September FOMC.At the same time, Canada delivers its August Employment Report, including wage growth, net employment change, and the unemployment rate, so keep an eye on the Loonie!Later in the morning, Canada also publishes the Ivey PMI (10:00 A.M. ET), offering another layer of insight into domestic business activity.Get ready for an active session. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This morning saw the release of many data points that are making markets feel a bit easier:ADP Employment (which has been proving its recent accuracy) hasn't missed by a large amount, Unit Labor costs haven't risen much, Claims are higher but by a small margin and the earlier JOLTS (job openings) data is still far from bad.Overall, this week's data is the perfect recipe for the Federal Reserve to adjust their rates at the upcoming meeting (Sep 17), which would help with their current stance.A cut in the middle of a still growing economy would have been perceived as further hurting the FED's independence ; The thing is, the labor market is indeed cooling (but not falling off a cliff).In combination with a slight beat to the ISM Services PMI data, the combination helps equities to regain their recent tops.Nonetheless, participants will keep awaiting for tomorrow's Non-Farm payrolls release before moving the needle further – Let's discover which levels may come into play at tomorrow's number for the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.You can access our two NFP previews right here: Read More: Markets Already Looking to NFPNFP Preview: US Jobs Report & Implications for the DXY, Gold (XAU/USD) & Dow Jones (DJIA) Most Read: Silver nears its all-time highs, where to look next? XAG higher timeframe outlookDow Jones 8H Chart Dow Jones 8H Chart, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is going ballistic in this session, close to invalidating the shorter timeframe double top that was formed throughout the monthly open.Mood might be getting a tid bit too euphoric ahead of such key data, but it seems that Markets are getting ahead of the curve with FED's Williams balanced-dovish comments.In any case, breaking the most recent all-time highs would let the index test the 46,000 level and potentially even try the 46,400 to 46,800 Fibonacci-extension from April lows.The most bullish case for NFP would be a slight miss on the data but just slight enough to not trigger a too-late FED widespread panic (around 10 to 25K).A bearish scenario (very low number or huge number, pushing rate cuts further) would potentially lead a correction towards the previous NFP lows at 43,400.Levels for Dow Jones trading Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 45,764ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,400 to 46,850Support LevelsPrevious ATH resistance zone, now pivot 45,000 to 45,280Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750S&P 500 8H Chart S&P 500 8H Chart, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView Same as the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 is invalidating its previous double top with this morning's rally.Bulls have brought the index back up strongly at the 6,400 level which will hold a key importance for upcoming action.Any break below may increase profit-taking pressure, while holding the upward channel should maintain the uptrend.Bull/bear scenarios for Non-Farm payrolls are the same as for the Dow Jones.Levels for S&P 500 trading Resistance Levelssession highs 6,512 All-time highsAll-time high resistance zone 6,490 to 6,512 (currently testing)6,540 to 6,550 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension)Way higher Fib-extension potential resistance from 6,650 to 6,700Support LevelsEnd-July Top now Pivot 6,420 to 6,4306,400 Main Support6,300 psychological support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (NFP Lows)Nasdaq 8H Chart Nasdaq 8H Chart, September 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView The action in Nasdaq is also strong today but seems more rangebound than its peers.Indeed, the tech-heavy index got boosted by strong Mag 7 performances in yesterday afternoon and today's sessions, but the technicals suggest that the consecutive up and down action should reinforce a consolidation period.This will of course depend on tomorrow's number, with the bull/bear case similar as its peers. An as-expected data release should lead to even more rangebound action between 23,000 to 23,700.Levels for Nasdaq trading Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time Highs 23,98623,700 to 23,732 NFP highs acting as immediate resistance24,250 potential resistance at middle of upward channel (broken?)Support LevelsConsolidation lows 23,00023,000 Key Support22,700 support at NFP lowsEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportSafe Trades for tomorrow's huge number!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Jobs Report (NFP) is expected to show job growth of 75,000, with unemployment rising to 4.3%.US job growth is slowing, with recent revisions showing underlying weakness.The Fed faces a dilemma between faltering job creation and persistent wage growth.A weak report could solidify the case for a Fed rate cut, boosting stocks and gold.Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Recovers but the Outlook Remains Murky. WIll NFP Data Serve as a Catalyst?US Labor Market Backdrop The August 2025 Non‑Farm Payrolls report looks set to become a turning point for both the U.S. job market and the Fed’s policy path. Most analysts think about +75,000 jobs will be added, only a little more than July’s +73,000 and clearly slower than the fast pace earlier this year.At the same time the labor‑force participation rate fell to a 31‑month low, and factories lost workers for three months in a row – about 36,000 jobs gone. Yet the unemployment rate still sits around a historic low of 4.2 percent, suggesting the market still has some strength. NFP Preview: What to Expect The consensus for the August NFP report is centered around the addition of 75,000 jobs, a figure that is only marginally higher than the 73,000 jobs added in July, which was itself a substantial miss from the 110,000 forecast.The unemployment rate is projected to tick up by a tenth of a percentage point to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are expected to cool slightly to a 3.7% year-on-year increase from 3.9% in the prior period. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Time used is British Standard Time (BST) (click to enlarge) The US job market is clearly slowing down and is weaker than the main numbers suggest. The biggest warning sign is that the job figures for May and June were revised to be much lower, it turns out 258,000 fewer jobs were created than was first reported. This proves the job market was in worse shape than we originally thought and that the trend is getting worse.Even though the official unemployment rate seems low, other signs also point to weakness. A smaller percentage of people are actively working or looking for jobs, which makes the unemployment rate look better than it really is. On top of that, key areas like manufacturing have been cutting jobs.All of this together shows the job market is on shaky ground, and it now seems more likely that the unemployment rate will be on the rise in the months ahead..The Federal Reserve Conundrum The NFP report presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve and comes at a time when Fed independence has been questioned. Pressure has been mounting from the US administration for aggressive rate cuts.The current environment, marked by a cooling jobs market and persistent wage growth, creates an uneven backdrop for policymakers. Jobs are starting to cool, yet wages keep rising. That mix may mean the Fed could see a wage‑price spiral, a situation where higher pay fuels more inflation. If that happens, cutting rates could become much harder still.The Fed has until now cited the uncertainties around tariffs and its impact on inflation as an ongoing concern. However, following the revised labor numbers of late are now unable to ignore the situation with Fed Chair Powell's de facto admission at Jackson Hole that labor market concerns now outweigh inflation, a clear sign of the challenge and thinking of a divided Fed.Market expectations are already heavily skewed toward a rate cut. A 25 basis point (bps) cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is nearly fully priced in, with over 57 bps of cuts anticipated by December 2025.The upcoming report could serve to sway some Fed policymakers as we heard from Rafael Bostic who said “I am not ruling out a September rate cut depending on the coming jobs report and other data.” This highlights the magnitude of the data release.Potential implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY), Dow Jones and Gold The market's reaction to the NFP report will not be uniform, but rather dependent on the deviation from consensus forecasts. These are the potential reactions we could see depending on how the data comes out and is received. Source: Table Created by Zain Vawda, Data from LSEG Many of the assets above are at interesting areas what we would call inflection points with the next moves likely dependent on tomorrow's data.US Dollar Index (DXY)The broader bias for the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains bearish into the fourth quarter, predicated on the expectation of further Fed easing. A weak NFP report, particularly one with capped wage growth, would likely be the trigger that pushes the dollar below its key 97.45 support level, allowing its downtrend to resume.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, September 4, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Dow Jones Index (DJIA)The Dow has moved a lot lately, driven by hopes of Fed cuts. After the July NFP disappointment, the index fell hard, then bounced back when the data “re‑ignited hopes” for more cuts. This pattern suggests an inverse link: weaker jobs data can actually lift stocks in the current setting.Dow Jones Index Daily Chart, September 4, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Gold (XAU/USD)Gold stays near historic highs, a move mainly fueled by thoughts of an upcoming Fed cut. A soft NFP report would likely act as a strong push for more gold buying, reinforcing the case for monetary easing and making a non‑yielding metal more attractive.For a more in depth analysis of Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Extends Weekly Gain to 3.5%. More Gains In Store for Gold? NFP Up NextFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Gains 1.5% Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Recovers but the Outlook Remains Murky. WIll NFP Data Serve as a Catalyst?Stock markets in Asia struggled to move higher on Thursday because a big selloff of Chinese stocks got worse, making investors nervous. This overshadowed the optimism from the previous day, when weak U.S. job data had made people hopeful that the American central bank might lower interest rates.In some good news, Japan successfully sold its 30-year government bonds, which was a big relief for investors. They had been worried that no one would want to buy Japanese debt because of a recent global trend of selling bonds, political problems in Japan, and concerns about the country's finances. Japan's Nikkei bounced back on Thursday after falling to its lowest point in almost a month on Wednesday. The recovery was led by Japanese technology companies, whose stock prices rose after similar tech companies in the U.S. performed well overnight.By the end of the day, the Nikkei index was up 1.5%.The biggest winner was the tech-investing company SoftBank Group, with its stock jumping 6.5%. Other top performers included the cable-maker Fujikura and the chip-equipment maker Advantest.The broader market index called the Topix also finished the day 1% higher.Swiss Headline Inflation Steady, MoM Inflation Drops Into Negative Territory In August, prices in Switzerland were 0.2% higher than they were at the same time last year, an inflation rate that was the same as July's and matched what experts predicted. The main reason for the increase was a big jump in the cost of clothing and shoes, along with small price rises for housing, energy, education, and restaurant meals.However, this was balanced out because prices continued to fall for things like food, transportation, household items, and health services. A key measure called "core inflation," which ignores the changing prices of food and energy, actually slowed down slightly. Interestingly, when just comparing August to the month before, prices overall actually dropped by a tiny 0.1%, which was an unexpected decrease.For more on the performance of the Swiss Franc, read USD/CHF Technical: Potential Swiss franc bullish range breakout as NFP loomsEuropean Open - European Stocks Unchanged European stock markets were mostly unchanged as investors felt cautious due to ongoing worries in the bond market.The travel and tourism sector was the hardest hit, with its value dropping significantly. This was mainly because the British airline Jet2 warned that its profits for the year would be lower than it had previously hoped. As a result, Jet2's stock price dropped by a quarter of its value, and other travel companies like TUI and Easyjet also saw their shares fall 4% each.In other news, luxury carmaker Porsche's stock also slipped nearly 1% after the company was moved from Germany's main stock index to a secondary one, following recent losses caused by U.S. import taxes and weaker sales in China.On the FX front, the euro held onto the gains it made overnight trading at 1.1652, while the U.S. dollar was stable when measured against other major world currencies. The DXY was last trading at 98.27.In contrast, the British pound continued to struggle after a tough week, dropping slightly and staying near the four-week low it hit on Wednesday. The Japanese yen saw very little movement and was trading at 148.16 per dollar.Elsewhere, the Australian dollar lost a small amount of value, and the New Zealand dollar was trading at about $0.5869.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices continued to fall, adding to the big drop they experienced the day before. This decline is happening as investors look ahead to a meeting this weekend of the major oil-producing countries, known as OPEC+.At the meeting on Sunday, the group is expected to discuss increasing their oil production again for the month of October. Sources say the producers want to pump more oil to win back their share of the global market.Currently, the price for Brent crude, the global standard, is around $67.17 a barrel, while the main U.S. oil price is about $63.53 a barrel.Gold prices fell slightly as investors decided to sell and lock in their profits. This comes just one day after gold hit a new all-time record high price of $3,578.50 on Wednesday.That record was driven by a growing belief that the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, will soon cut interest rates. Now, investors are waiting for an important U.S. jobs report, which will be released on Friday, for more clues about the economy.The current price for gold for immediate delivery is around $3,538.56 per ounce, while the price for gold to be delivered in December is about $3,596.20.For more on the factors influencing the gold rally, read Gold (XAU/USD) Extends Weekly Gain to 3.5%. More Gains In Store for Gold? NFP Up NextEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will see attention shift to debt auctions in France and the United Kingdom, which have been at the center of Europe's bond selloff.In the US session, markets will be focused on US ADP employment change data as well as S&P PMI data.Also keep an eye out on news regarding the US-Japan trade deals as news filtered through a short-while ago that Japan and the US are in the final stages of talks to implement lower tariffs on Japanese auto imports. The reports also stated Japan and the US are to issue a joint statement on July trade accord, also MOU on rules for Japan's investment package For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX Index has dropped below the 100-day MA but appears to have found support at the August 4 swing low at 23471.Yesterday saw a mixed day for the DAX as the index fluctuated between gains and losses, finishing the day down marginally by 0.04%.Immediate resistance is now provided by the 100-day MA with a break above leading to a potential retest of the 24000 handle.There remains potential for further downside and a test of the lower band of the channel pattern which is in play. There is also support at the 23212 level which could come into a play in such a scenario.DAX Daily Chart, September 4. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The USD/CHF’s sideways range environment since its 1 August 2025 swing high of 0.8170 has been getting compressed as we approach the key risk event for the FX market this week, the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for August out this Friday, 5 September.SNB rate cut cycle likely over as Swiss leading economic data improves in August Fig. 1: Switzerland Manufacturing PMI as of Aug 2025 (Source: Trading Economics) Fig. 2: Switzerland Services PMI as of Aug 2025 (Source: Trading Economics) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) was the first major central bank to initiate an easing cycle in March 2024, delivering six consecutive cuts totalling 175 basis points. This brought the policy rate down from a 10-year high of 1.75% to 0% by June 2025, marking the first return to zero borrowing costs since the negative-rate era that ended in late 2022.The next SNB monetary policy meeting will be held on 29 September, and there is a likelihood that the SNB may pause its interest rate cut cycle as two leading economic data points have started to show subtle signs of demand improvement in Switzerland.The Swiss manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.0 in August from 48.8 in July, while manufacturing activities remain in contraction mode (below 50), but its negative growth momentum has continued to subside from the May 2025 print of 42.1.In addition, service activities in Switzerland showed minor improvements as the services PMI increased to 43.9 in August from a five-year low of 41.80 printed in July.Let’s now examine the medium-term outlook (1-3 weeks) on the USD/CHF from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 3: USD/CHF medium-term trend as of 4 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks) Potential bearish breakdown from the ongoing five-week range below 0.8100 key medium-term pivotal resistance, with downside trigger level at 0.7990 to expose the next supports at 0.7920/0.7870 and 0.7795 (see Fig. 3).Key elements The recent bounces seen in the USD/CHF since 1 August 2025 have failed to surpass the upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel from the 3 February 2025 high, which suggests the lack of bullish momentum.The 4-hour Bollinger Bandwidth indicator has continued to hover at a relatively low level of 1, which highlights a volatility compression condition, a prelude to a volatility expansion that may trigger a potential imminent outburst in the price actions of USD/CHF.The yield spread (premium) between the 2-year US Treasury note and the 2-year Swiss government bond has continued to shrink to 3.70% since its bearish breakdown on 1 August 2025, where it was at 4.07% on 31 July 2025.Recently, on 22 August 2025, the 2-year yield spread of the US Treasury note and the Swiss government bond flashed out a similar bearish breakdown and traded below its 50-day moving average.These observations suggest that 2-year US Treasury notes are getting less attractive over similar tenures of Swiss government bonds in terms of yields, which in turn can put downside pressure on the USD/CHF.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks) A clearance above 0.8100 key resistance invalidates the bearish tone on the USD/CHF for a squeeze up towards the next medium-term resistances at 0.8170 and 0.8250. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.