The problem with being all show is that eventually you have to deliver real results. Earlier today there was a Politico report about Howard Lutnick and how the vast majority of his $18 trillion in touted investment deals into the US is basically smoke-and-mirrors, AI investment, or a repackaging of things that were already announced.Now, the SCMP is out with a report saying Chinese officials are unsettled about a planned April meeting between Xi and Trump because there could be nothing to announce."Preparations are inadequate, bilateral contacts anaemic and outcomes diminished, according to analysts and former government officials familiar with planning," the report says.According to analysts and former officials, the US side has barely shown up to the process. The problem is that no one can seem to get a decision out of anyone but Bessent, Witkoff and Kushner but they're also preoccupied with many other files.The core tension here is a classic one: Beijing wants a heavily choreographed, no-surprises event with deliverables locked in months ahead of time. They literally count the number of steps Xi takes to reach the restroom. Trump wants to walk in, trust his gut, and improvise a deal. As one analyst put it in the report: "Xi's doing classical music and Trump's doing free jazz."Expect Boeing aircraft sales and soy purchases to be dressed up as big wins. China needs both anyway. Nvidia chip sales may also be on the table, which some think is strategically misguided given Xi's stated goal of tech self-sufficiency.Taiwan will be high on the agenda from Beijing's side, and there's a real concern Trump could inadvertently drift into "peaceful reunification" language that would mark a significant departure from US policy.In short: Don't get your hopes up.Also, this weakening in the US dollar against the renminbi is also getting some attention lately. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Nvidia put its best foot forward with a big earnings beat but it isn't enough for the market. Shares were up around 1% in the pre-market but opened lower and are now down almost 5%. The drop is spreading beyond the company and the Nasdaq is down 1.7% and it's now even hitting FX with AUD/USD quickly falling 20 pips to the lows of the day.Shares of NVDA were trying to break above the current range but have been pulled back in and are now likely to test the lower end of the range.Other chipmakers are also getting hit today with Broadcom down 6.7%, Micron down 5.7% and Intel down 5.2%. Other high-flying AI related trades are also seeing profit taking.On the whole though, advancers lead decliners in the S&P 500 despite a 1.1% decline including some of the beaten up software names like FICO +6% and INTU +4.8%.The price action suggests the market is pivoting away from AI trades in general and back to real economy bets. There is also an element of short-covering, which might suggest de-grossing in general.I would also highlight the bond market, where US 10-year yields are testing 4% again. I don't know if a bear market in stock alone is enough to generate real flows into bonds or if we need a real weakening of the economy.Then again, a drop in equities is often enough to cause a recession in a hyper-financialized economy like the USA. Today's price action in NVDA makes it tough for me to believe that the AI narrative alone (despite how amazing the products are) is enough to sustain the market. Without that, it's a market that has things like Walmart trading at 44x earnings. Given that backdrop, you can see why investors are retreating to foreign stock markets, low margin RAMP businesses, gold and bonds. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview: Mixed Movements Across Key SectorsToday's stock market heatmap reveals a mixed picture across sectors, with distinct movements shaping the day's trading landscape. The technology sector demonstrates resilience, while semiconductors experience notable declines. Let’s delve into the details.? Technology Sector: A Bright SpotThe technology sector shines brightly today. Microsoft (MSFT) gains 0.86% and Oracle (ORCL) increases by 0.75%, reflecting robust investor confidence. This upward trend suggests strengthening fundamentals and positive market sentiment towards tech infrastructure stocks.? Semiconductor SetbackIn contrast, semiconductors encounter challenges. Broadcom (AVGO) slides by 2.15% and Nvidia (NVDA) drops by 1.31%, painting a picture of investor caution within this crucial tech sub-sector. Industry-specific pressures and global supply chain issues may be influencing these declines.? Financial FirmnessThe financial sector holds firm, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) up by 0.89% and Visa (V) rising 0.52%. This stability may be attributed to positive economic outlooks and a resilient banking infrastructure supporting investor sentiments.? From Consumer Cyclical to DefensivesThe consumer cyclical landscape offers mixed signals; while Amazon (AMZN) is marginally down by 0.09%, consumer defensive giants such as Walmart (WMT) enjoy a 0.59% increase, hinting at a strategic shift towards safer, defensive investments amid market volatility.Market Mood and Trends: Navigating the Mixed SignalsThe market sentiment today is marked by sector-specific dynamics. While tech infrastructure stocks reflect positive trends driven by innovation and robust earnings, semiconductors face headwinds likely due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain worries.Investors appear cautious but hopeful, pivoting towards defensives as a hedge against market uncertainties. This suggests a strategic shift to mitigate potential risks in historically volatile sectors.Strategic Recommendations: Navigating the PatchworkInvestors should consider diversifying their portfolios to encompass a balanced mix of technology infrastructure and defensive sectors. Given the current pulse of the semiconductor market, staying vigilant on global news and sector reports will be prudent.Actionable Insights:Consider increasing exposure in technology infrastructure stocks like MSFT and ORCL.Cautiously evaluate semiconductor investments until clearer signals emerge.Explore defensive stocks for portfolio stability, especially in consumer goods like WMT and PG.Stay informed with real-time data and analyses at InvestingLive.com to guide your investment strategies in such a dynamic market environment. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is pushing higher after a move lower in the Asian Pacific session stalled ahead of this week’s low near 1.3649. Sellers had an opportunity to press the pair to new weekly lows but failed to generate follow-through. That inability to extend lower invited buyers back in.The bounce has now carried the price back above both the 200-hour moving average (1.36746) and the 100-hour moving average (1.3686). Staying above those moving averages gives buyers more short-term control and shifts attention back toward resistance.50% midpoint remains the key upside hurdleThe next important level comes in at the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 1.37045. That level capped the upside yesterday and remains a critical barometer for bias.If the price can break and hold above 1.37045, the next targets become:• 1.37149 to 1.37241 swing area • A potential extension toward the late-January highs if momentum buildsFailure to clear the midpoint keeps the broader range intact and maintains the market’s sideways character.Volatility compression signals potential breakoutFor the week, USDCAD has traded within roughly a 75-pip range, the narrowest weekly range since mid-January. Even more telling, price has remained inside essentially the same range for the past 6½ trading days.This is classic consolidation behavior. The moving averages are clustered, resistance levels are repeatedly respected, and downside breaks are failing to gain traction.Non-trending markets eventually transition into trending markets. The longer the compression, the more meaningful the eventual breakout can become.Key technical levels• Support: 1.3649 • Short-term support: 200-hour MA (1.36746), 100-hour MA (1.3686) • Resistance: 1.37045 • Upside targets: 1.37149 to 1.37241 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

NVIDIA delivered a monster Q4, posting record revenue of $68.1 billion — comfortably ahead of the $66.2 billion consensus estimate — with earnings of $1.62 per share (non-GAAP). Revenue surged 73% year-over-year, driven almost entirely by the data center juggernaut, which pulled in $62.3 billion and now accounts for 91% of total sales.But the real headline was guidance. NVIDIA expects Q1 revenue of $78 billion (±2%), blowing past the $72.6 billion consensus and marking what would be the fourth straight quarter of accelerating growth. Jensen Huang talked up the "agentic AI inflection point" and touted Blackwell as delivering an order-of-magnitude lower cost per token for inference workloads.Yet the stock is up barely 1% in pre-market. That tells you everything about where the market's head is at right now — and looming large is what happened last quarter. After NVIDIA's Q3 report in November, shares spiked 4% in the initial after-hours reaction on another beat-and-raise, only to reverse and finish the following session 2% lower. Traders got burned chasing that move, and the memory of it is keeping a lid on enthusiasm this time around.The broader debate has moved past whether NVIDIA can hit its numbers — it clearly can — and toward whether the hyperscaler capex cycle is sustainable. The big cloud players have seen more than $1 trillion wiped from their market caps since early February on exactly those fears. AMD got punished 17% despite beating expectations.The question is whether NVDA's customers can turn their huge investments into chips into revenues and profits (and free cash flow) of their own, and whether the market is willing to wait years for that to unfold.On the face of it though, the numbers are astonishing: Full-year revenue hit $215.9 billion, up 65%. Gross margins held up at 75% for the quarter. NVIDIA returned $41.1 billion to shareholders in FY26 (though much of that was eaten up by share-based comp).The numbers are pristine. The question is whether the market is ready to pay up for them when the macro AI narrative is under pressure — and whether this time, the post-earnings fade finally breaks.In terms of the chart, it looks good to me as it tries to break out of the recent consolidation ahead of a fresh test of $212. One thing that lingers is a recent Morgan Stanley report saying that Nvidia is the most under-owned large-cap tech stock among institutional investors. Now could be the moment they pile in. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -$9.68 (revised to -$5.27B)14th consecutive quarter of current account deficitsTrade in goods and services balance posted a $3.1 billion deficit in the fourth quarter vs $4.4 billion in Q3Goods deficit $4.5B vs $9.5B priorForeign investors acquired a record $33.6 billion of federal government bondsCanadian investors acquired $18.5 billion of foreign securities, down from a $56.1 billion investment in the third quarterFor the year 2025, the current account balance posted a $30.4 billion deficit, doubling from $15.0 billion in 2024Foreign direct investment in Canada reached $96.8 billion in 2025, the highest level since 2007Big changes in the quarterly current account data. The narrowing of the deficit in the fourth quarter reflected a significant reduction in the trade in goods deficit, which was moderated by a decrease in the services and investment income surpluses.In the financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation), the foreign demand for Canadian bonds remained strong in the fourth quarter, led by an unprecedented foreign investment in federal government bonds. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment in Canada, mainly resulting from merger and acquisition activities, largely surpassed Canadian direct investment abroad.In terms of trade, gold exports were a big reason behind the improvement.At the same time, Canada also released payroll and earnings data:Year over year, average weekly earnings were up 1.9% in Dec vs 2.3% in NovThere were 514,600 vacant jobs in Canada, up from 490,900 (+23,700; +4.8%) in NovemberPayroll employment decreased by 35,400 in DecPayrolls down 28,300 in Dec This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 206K (revised to 208K)Four-week moving average 220.25K vs 219.50K last weekContinuing claims 1.833M vs 1,858M expectedPrior continuing claims 1.864M revised from 1.869M The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 14 were in Iowa (+377), Michigan (+105), Florida (+84), and Nevada (+1).The largest decreases were in New York (-7,615), Pennsylvania (-5,201), New Jersey (-2,845), California (-2,386), and Texas (-2,368). The "No Hire. No Fire" remains in play, but the data is good news for the economy. Steady. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor's Employment and Training Administration, tracks the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance benefits for the first time during the previous week. As the timeliest indicator of labor market conditions, initial jobless claims provide an early snapshot of layoff activity and emerging unemployment trends. The report includes both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted figures, along with continuing claims reflecting the number of people already receiving unemployment benefits. The four-week moving average is often used to smooth out weekly volatility and provide a clearer picture of underlying trends. Data is collected from state unemployment insurance programs across all fifty states and reported with a one-week lag.The US will auction 7 year notes at 1 PM today after average 2 and 5 year auctions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yields are marginally lower 2-year yield 3.466% -0.4 basis points5 year yield 3.606%, -0.9 basis points10 year yield 4.040%, -0.8 basis points 30 year yield 4.604%, -0.8 basis pointsUS stocks are higher in premarket trading Dow industrial average up 129 pointsS&P index up 8.87 points NASDAQ index up 17.72 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is kicking off the session mixed. EURUSD and GBPUSD are lower (firmer USD), while USDJPY is also lower (softer USD vs JPY). As we head toward the North American session and the end of the week, the focus shifts to whether these pairs can break out of tight ranges and establish clearer directional control.EURUSD technical analysis: Tight weekly range keeps traders waitingThe EURUSD remains confined to a narrow 70-pip range for the week, signaling a market still searching for conviction. That type of compression often precedes expansion. The key question is whether buyers or sellers can force a breakout and extend the range.Upside resistance levelsThe high today stalled at 1.1830, the 50% midpoint of the recent move. Monday’s high reached 1.1834 before rotating lower. That 1.1830–1.1834 area is key resistance.A break and sustained move above that zone would increase the bullish bias and shift focus toward:1.1860 as the next upside target1.1889, the broken 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading rangeUntil that area is cleared, upside momentum remains limited.Downside support levelsThe European session rotation lower pushed price below the 200-hour MA at 1.1801, but buyers stepped in at the 100-hour MA near 1.1793.If the price falls below the 100-hour MA, traders will look toward:1.1765–1.1778, the swing area floor for the week1.1741, last week’s double bottom1.1691, where the 100-day MA comes into focusA break below the weekly floor would likely increase downside momentum.EURUSD outlook: The pair remains range-bound, but pressure is building. A decisive move outside the 70-pip range could trigger a stronger directional run.USDJPY technical analysis: Failed breakout shifts momentum lowerThe USDJPY is correcting earlier gains after failing on a topside breakout.Yesterday’s rally pushed above the 156.20–156.28 swing area and extended through a topside trendline near 156.60, but the break could not be sustained. The pair rotated lower into the close.In the Asian session today, price broke back below 156.20, accelerated to a low of 155.72, and then bounced.Key pivot level: 156.20–156.28This former support zone now acts as resistance and remains the key short-term barometer.If the price moves back above 156.28 and holds, buyers regain control. If the price stays below 156.20, sellers maintain the edge.On further downside pressure, the next target is the rising 100-hour MA near 155.47.USDJPY outlook: The failed breakout shifts the short-term bias lower unless buyers can reclaim the 156.20–156.28 zone.GBPUSD technical analysis: Buyers defending short-term supportThe GBPUSD made a new Asian session high, breaking above yesterday’s high near 1.3565 and reaching 1.3575. However, it stalled just ahead of the swing resistance zone between 1.3582 and 1.3590.In the European session, price rotated lower:Broke below the 200-hour MA at 1.3526Moved under the 1.3526–1.3537 swing areaFound support ahead of the rising 100-hour MA at 1.3512The pair has since rebounded and is now trading back above 1.3536.Holding above that reclaimed swing area keeps buyers in short-term control. A move back below would shift focus toward the 100-hour MA. A break above 1.3575 would bring the 1.3582–1.3590 resistance zone back into play.GBPUSD outlook: Buyers remain active, but upside momentum needs to clear the 1.3580 area to strengthen the bullish case.North American session focusAcross the board, these pairs are sitting near inflection points:EURUSD remains compressed within its weekly rangeUSDJPY is testing sellers after a failed breakoutGBPUSD is trying to hold reclaimed supportAs we move into the North American session and toward the weekly close, watch for range expansion and momentum confirmation around the key technical levels outlined above.... This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The S&P 500 remains supported by positive macro backdrop, but downside risks lingerUS futures hold caution ahead of the open laterSilver retreats from a key level as focus turns to US-Iran talks and the NFP reportEurozone February final consumer confidence -12.2 vs -12.2 prelimECB president Lagarde: My baseline is that I will stay until the end of my termCrude oil in the spotlight as the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks begins in GenevaWe continue to expect inflation to stabilise at our 2% target in the medium-term - LagardeDollar on the rocks but may stay supported through month-end - Credit AgricoleEURUSD stays rangebound as focus turns to US-Iran talks and the NFP reportCrypto today and what to watch after yesterday's massive reboundGold outlook remains bullish with more room for fresh long positions now - ANZWhat are the main events for today?FX option expiries for 26 February 10am New York cutBOJ policymaker Takata: It is currently hard to determine the desirable pace of rate hikesEarly market reaction shows that the bar for Nvidia may have gotten even higherIt's been a very light session in terms of data and news releases. The focus today is mainly on the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. We've been getting some positive signals as an Iranian adviser said on X that an immediate agreement could be reached if the US focused solely on Iran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. Moreover, Oman's foreign minister said that negotiators showed "unprecedented openness". An agreement would certainly be a nice achievement and lead to positive risk sentiment in the market, but unfortunately it's not the first time we get such positive signals that eventually turn out to be nothing more than just words. Nevertheless, oil prices have been falling throughout the session on the positive vibes.There was no other notable news as ECB President Lagarde just repeated the same old stuff like the ECB will continue to follow a data dependent and meeting by meeting approach, and that they continue to expect inflation to stabilise at 2% in the medium term.In the American session, the only highlight is the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 216K vs 206K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1858K vs 1869K prior. The data is unlikely to change anything for the market at this point though, unless we get some meaningful deviations like Continuing Claims falling below 1800K or Initial Claims rising above 260K.Keep an eye on the US-Iran headlines as talks will resume later today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

BOJ governor Ueda came out today with a bold statement, at least by his standards, in saying that their upcoming policy meetings in March and April will be live. The timing of that remark says a lot as it comes after his meeting with prime minister Takaichi, as well as the report yesterday that Takaichi voiced her concerns and reluctance towards the BOJ hiking rates again.In terms of what might trigger the BOJ to act, it is all on the spring wage negotiations. The expected wage benchmark should see the 5% level hit again, which might compel the central bank to take action. But if they are not careful enough, they might just miss their timing to do so. That as we are about to see a reshuffle in policymakers making up the BOJ board.Current policymakers Asahi Noguchi and Junko Nakagawa will be seeing their respective term end on 31 March and 29 June respectively. And prime minister Takaichi already has lined up her candidates of choice in replacing them.For some background, Noguchi is a dovish member but did pivot to support the last two rate hikes to bring the policy rate to 0.75%. As such, markets will be watching closely to see if he will deliver a "parting gift" in March to support one more rate hike before leaving.As for Nakagawa, she is more of a consensus voter at the central bank. In other words, she tends to stick with the general leanings of the majority of the board at the time. So, losing her is basically losing a swing vote so to speak in supporting the majority leanings of the BOJ board. But for now, at least she will stay on until the June meeting.So, who are the ones replacing them?Takaichi has lined up Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato as the replacements to both Noguchi and Nakagawa respectively.The idea is to put Asada and Sato in place to act as block and counterweight to the more hawkish leanings that the central bank wants to pursue.While on paper they do look like dove-for-dove replacements to Noguchi and Nakagawa, they are more reflationist in nature and that could provide some pushback against the BOJ's plans to hike rates moving forward.Of note, Asada ascribes to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and argues that that debt doesn't matter as much as growth. In other words, the emphasis of his core principle is the necessity for coordinated fiscal and monetary policy to stabilise the economy.As for Sato, she is more from a legal background. And while her policy leanings aren't as clear, it is more than likely that she will favour a more institutional perspective in aligning with the government's goal of ensuring that monetary normalisation does not stifle economic growth.With all that in consideration, the BOJ might just be up against the clock in being able to deliver their next rate hike. If not careful, they could just miss that timing window. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 rebounded from the monthly lows as risk sentiment improved. There was no real catalyst for the move as the market continues to trade in a range amid uncertainty on the macro and geopolitical fronts. The short-term uncertainty caused by the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs might have weighed on the market, but in the bigger picture it didn’t change much as Trump quickly reimposed new tariffs using different laws. The new levies reduce the effective average tariff rate, which could be a positive at the margin. In terms of Fed interest rates path, the market is still pricing 54 bps of easing by year-end which could be at risk of a hawkish repricing on further improvement in the US labour market data. In fact, Fed’s Waller mentioned that he might want to hold rates steady if we see a repeat of the strong January’s NFP report. Therefore, next Friday is going to be key as good data could weigh on the market in the short-term on a hawkish repricing. Lastly, we have the US-Iran military escalation risk. This is one of the biggest risks because if a military conflict were to break out, we would see oil prices skyrocket. This would be a negative shock for the global economy and lead to stagflation risks. The first reaction in the markets would be strong risk aversion. We would highly likely see a selloff in the stock market as future growth expectations would turn negative.To sum up, there are lots of downside risks at the moment with little reasons for a rally into new all-time highs. Nonetheless, the macro backdrop remains positive given the easing inflation and improving labour market, but that could change quickly, so traders will need to be careful.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 rebounded from the monthly lows and it’s approaching the all-time highs. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the record highs, to position for a drop back into the 6,760 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new record highs.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a strong support zone around the 6,930 level. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile back in and target the 6,760 support. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the support, while the sellers will need a break lower to open the door for a drop into the 6,760 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the third round of US-Iran talks and the US Jobless Claims data. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The big story in the equities market came after the close yesterday, with Nvidia delivering a major beat in their earnings report across the board. That saw shares of the tech giant rose by over 3% for a brief period in after-hours trading before settling with more modest gains. In turn, broader market sentiment also retreated and that's making for a more tepid mood seen in Asia and early European morning trade thus far.S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% currently, with Nasdaq futures also down 0.1% on the day. As we look to the open later, Nvidia shares are now seen up only 0.6% in pre-market. Even with a triple beat on revenue, earnings, and guidance, it's not quite doing enough to drag the ship up as we gear up towards the Wall Street open in a few hours.And the market saying is that when something can't go up on good news, it surely means that there is danger up ahead.That being said, it would be remiss of me not to point out that investors tend to put Nvidia up on an extremely high pedestal when it comes to earnings releases. And this time is no exception to that.When perfection is the bare minimum, Nvidia's latest earnings beat is pretty much what investors would really want to see with the poster boy of the AI rally. So when perfection is very much expected, the exemplary tends to become ordinary. And one can argue that is what we're seeing here.All that being said, the more tepid mood belies the fact that the S&P 500 is still just 0.8% away from reaching fresh record highs. And the Nasdaq is also bucking the technical downside break earlier this month to climb back up to its 100-day moving average - hitting a two-week high.There are definitely still macro concerns with regards to geopolitics and trade, alongside software stocks still being hounded by the AI disruption. All of that is certainly going to make for more cautious steps in the short-term. But if you go by the charts alone, it certainly doesn't feel like equities are in any sense of danger.Yet, there's still that lingering feeling that the AI disruption and Nvidia having to shoulder such a heavy weight can only go so far before a correction is due. There are growing concerns on how the hyperscalers i.e. Google, Meta, Microsoft can keep up on capex spending to support the outlook portrayed by Nvidia. And that adds to the prevailing narrative that software stocks are being heavily pushed down now by the same very AI disruption that Nvidia is powering.Can big tech prove to be enough to do the heavy lifting if the rest of the market struggles? That might be the key juncture we're at when viewing the latest developments. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSilver pulled all the way back into a key swing level around the 92.00 handle as some renewed tariff uncertainty and the risk of a military escalation between US and Iran has kept the market supported.Nonetheless, the bullish momentum from the Friday’s US Supreme Court decision seems to have already waned given no changes to the big picture. In fact, Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law, and the tariff deals remain in place. The new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so at the margin it could be a positive. The market might remain supported in the short-term amid some uncertainty, but I don’t see material changes to justify a rally back to all-time highs, at the moment. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could take silver prices to new highs or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a negative effect on the market. Fed’s Waller mentioned that he would change his dovish stance in case the strong January’s jobs data is repeated in February, so next week’s NFP report is going to be a key risk event for silver. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver pulled all the way back to the key swing level at 92.15. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the major trendline around the 60.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new record high next.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price is rejecting a minor upward trendline as the buyers are stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a break above the 92.15 level. The sellers will look for a break below the trendline to extend the drop into the 80.00 support next. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see a minor support zone around the 85.00 level. If the price were to break below the trendline, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. A break above the minor downward trendline should see the buyers increasing their bullish bets. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely continue to lean on the downward trendline to keep pushing into new lows The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the third round of US-Iran talks and the US Jobless Claims data. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -12.4Economic confidence 98.3 vs 99.8 expectedPrior 99.4; revised to 99.3Industrial confidence -7.1 vs -6.1 expectedPrior -6.8Services confidence 5.0 vs 7.5 expectedPrior 7.2Slight delay in the release by the source. Euro area economic sentiment drops slightly in February, keeping below the long-term average score of 100 still. The recovery is dashed as employment expectations also declined on the month, with a drop in both industrial and services confidence as well.On the employment estimate, the decline (-0.7 to 98.5) was driven by weaker employment plans reported by managers in the services and construction sectors, which were only marginally countered by a slight improvement reported in retail trade.Here's the breakdown by sectorial performance in the region:The report here isn't going to change much to the ECB outlook. As mentioned earlier in the session, the central bank remains sidelined at the moment with no material shifts to policy expectations still. Policymakers are waiting for a major change in the wind direction on either the economic performance or the inflation front. And so far, we're not quite there yet.As things stand, markets are also not really expecting anything from the ECB. Traders are currently pricing in no rate changes whatsoever through the end of the year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

To be fair, she could use better choice of words here if she wants to sound more assuring. But in all likelihood, it looks like she wants to maintain optionality in her decision. How typical of a central banker these days, eh?The key word in her answer that is baseline. As we all know, there's baseline scenarios to just about anything. However, it doesn't mean that the actual outcome follows said baseline. And in her own semantics, Lagarde will definitely argue it that way if and when the time comes for her to leave the central bank earlier than her term dictates.As a reminder, it is speculated that Lagarde will depart from the ECB possibly before April next year. That is to say before the French presidential elections take place. As such, it will allow for Macron and other key EU members to nominate their preferred candidate of choice in replacing Lagarde as ECB president. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices stabilized after last week’s sharp surge, which was driven by fears of a possible military escalation over the weekend. Attention is now turning to the third round of US–Iran nuclear talks taking place in Geneva today. Based on the developments so far, the prospects for an agreement appear slim. In fact, the signals we are getting are actually concerning.The US has reportedly built up a significant military presence in the Middle East, the largest deployment in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia has prepared a contingency plan to boost short-term oil production and exports if a potential US strike on Iran were to disrupt crude flows from the region. At the same time, reports suggest that Iran is close to finalizing a deal to purchase supersonic anti-ship missiles from China, although any deployment would not be immediate.If a military conflict were to break out, oil prices would likely spike sharply, particularly due to the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Conversely, a clear sign of US military de-escalation or a breakthrough in negotiations between Washington and Tehran would likely be needed for prices to retreat toward the $60 level.For now, elevated geopolitical tensions are expected to keep the oil market supported.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil stabilised around the 66.43 level as traders turned their focus to the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks before picking a direction. We can expect the sellers to continue to step in around the 66.43 resistance with a defined risk above it to target a drop back into the 62.36 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 70.50 level next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have also a mid-range support around the 64.14 level where aggressive dip-buyers could step in. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below that level to increase the bearish bets into the 62.36 support next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We can now see that our efforts to bring inflation down have been effectiveWe continue to expect inflation to stabilise at our 2% target in the medium-termWe therefore decided to keep key ECB interest rates unchanged at our monetary policy meeting earlier this monthWe will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stanceOur interest rate decisions will be based on our assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding itWe are not pre-committing to a particular interest rate pathThe ECB pays close attention to households’ inflation perceptionsInflation perceptions matter for three reasonsFirst, perceptions directly influence economic behaviourSecond, perceptions of current inflation shape expectations about future inflationThird, inflation perceptions can influence public trust in institutions - including the ECBFull transcriptThere's nothing in her speech that really stands out from what has already been communicated before this. The ECB remains on the sidelines and are not yet in a position to pre-commit to moving just yet. As things stand, markets are also not pricing in any rate changes by the central bank for the whole of this year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's nice to wrap up the trading week with it being the final day of the month. And interestingly enough, did you realise that the March calendar is a repeat of February (only with the additional 3 days). In February trading, the dollar has been rather resilient after struggling towards the end of last year. However, the mood has been a bit shaky in the second half of the month.Geopolitical uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty are two big issues that are plaguing the greenback. No thanks to the erratic policy handling by the US administration of course. And that's keeping precious metals underpinned amid the continued currency debasement narrative since last year.As for the dollar itself, that is putting the currency on the rocks as it looks vulnerable to a renewed drop heading into March. But in closing out February trading, Credit Agricole argues that the dollar could find support from month-end flows in at least holding its head above water in the final few days here."On the structural side, concerns about rebalancing out of the US remain a drag on the USD and support EUR/USD. The latest spike of US trade policy risks seems to support the bearish USD-view as FX investors shun the US policy and economic uncertainty. In addition, valuation concerns erode the appeal of USD assets.That said, we also note that the more recent USD recovery has coincided with US stock market weakness. This may suggest that the USD is benefitting from the unwinding of short-USD hedges that foreign investors have put into place. Our month-end rebalancing model predicts that they will continue to buy USD this week."Just something to take note of as we move into the closing stages of the week in the next two days. In particular, just be wary of any volatility bouts when we get to the London fix especially. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar continues to bounce around potentially due to some uncertainty around tariffs after the US Supreme Court ruled against the previous levies. It’s pretty clear at this point that tariffs are here to stay as Trump reimposed them using different laws. Overall, not much has changed.The price action remains mostly rangebound as traders await new catalysts and further developments to pick a direction. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could boost the greenback on severe risk-off mood or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a positive effect on the USD. Fed’s Waller placed a great deal on next week’s NFP report. EUR:On the EUR side, nothing has changed. As a reminder, the ECB held interest rates steady as widely expected at the last meeting and kept the same data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting guidance. The policymakers have eased the rhetoric on the euro recently after the currency dropped below the 1.20 level against the dollar. The focus remains on inflation as the central bank has repeatedly stated that it won’t respond to small or short-term deviations from the 2% target. The data for now has been positive with economic activity picking up and core inflation hovering just a bit above target.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD is consolidating around the 1.18 handle as traders await new catalysts to pick a direction. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 1.1927 level to position for a drop into the 1.16 handle next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above that level to open the door for a rally into new cycle highs.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action between a few support and resistance zones. The buyers will likely step in around the 1.1807 support with a defined risk below it to extend the rally into the 1.1850 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 1.1750 support next.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the support, while the sellers will look for a break lower. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the German CPI and the US PPI data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin and Ether futures cool off after the rebound as traders watch key acceptance zonesBitcoin futures (BTC1!) and Ether futures (ETH1!) are both in a “pause after the push” phase. The daily charts still reflect a rebound attempt that is stalling under overhead supply, while the 4H footprint view adds an important layer: the market is not panicking, it is rotating into balance and waiting for the next catalyst.This is not financial advice. It is educational decision support based on price action and order flow style footprint behavior. But, first, the backdrop affecting crypto now. And, remember, everyone was watching the earnings of the biggest stock in the world last night (and wanted to see how this might affect 'risk on' or 'risk off' sentiment, that could trickle down to crypto as well).The recent market volatility has been characterized by sharp technical corrections and equally swift recoveries, particularly as Bitcoin rips to $68,000 in a quick turnaround following a dip to the $62,500 level. This rebound is viewed by many as a signal that the broader risk trade remains intact, especially as some are already buying the contrarian dip in crypto to capitalize on what appears to be a flushing out of overleveraged positions rather than a fundamental breakdown. This resilience in digital assets is mirroring the tech sector, where Nvidia's Huang says markets misjudge AI threat as revenue and guidance smash forecasts, providing a massive fundamental backstop to the AI and infrastructure narrative. However, the early market reaction shows that the bar for Nvidia may have gotten even higher, suggesting that "pricing for perfection" is now the baseline, leaving little room for error as geopolitical and trade uncertainties linger.When you look at the raw data against this chaotic macroeconomic backdrop, it's clear digital assets are sitting at a massive crossroads right now. Bitcoin CME Futures are currently hovering right around $68,185, pulling back a bit by 1.91%, or roughly $1,330, on the day. If you're watching the charts today, the immediate range is pretty tight, you've got support holding near the daily low of $67,965 and resistance capping things off around the session high of $69,195.But to really understand the technical setup, you have to zoom out. Sure, we’re seeing a spark of short-term momentum with a 3.11% pop over the last week, but that little victory is fighting against a brutal longer-term downtrend. We're still down 23% year-to-date and nursing a painful nearly 40% drop over the last six months (!). When you compare this recent weekly bounce to those heavy multi-month losses, especially considering we're miles away from the 52-week high of $127,240, it becomes obvious just how critical these current price levels are. The big question now is whether this is just a fleeting relief rally, or the actual groundwork for a real, sustained reversal.Ethereum's 20% Surge Activates a Major Bull Flag — Now the Real Test BeginsEthereum is stealing the spotlight right now, officially outpacing Bitcoin yesteraday after an explosive rally that sent prices soaring roughly 20% since Thursday morning. Looking at the 1-hour Ether Futures chart, the technical setup is incredibly compelling: the price successfully broke out of its lengthy descending channel, decisively activating a textbook bull flag. Currently trading around the $2,061.0 mark following a minor intraday pullback, the mission for buyers is crystal clear. Bulls absolutely must step up and defend the upper boundary of this previously broken flag, turning former resistance into new support. If they can successfully hold this line, the bullish technical narrative remains completely intact, paving the way for the market's next leg up. But bulls can not fully celebrate yet and I explain why below.The daily view: rebound energy is fading into consolidationBitcoin futures daily: rebound, then hesitationOn the daily timeframe, BTC looks like it successfully defended a downside extension, then ran into supply and began to stall. That usually means one of two things:The market is building a base to continue higherThe rebound was mostly short-covering and it will fade once buyers stop pressingThe key daily takeaway is simple: the bounce happened, but the market still needs proof that it can reclaim and hold higher prices rather than just tag them.Ether futures daily: similar story, slightly weaker postureETH is in the same “rebound then pause” regime, but with a slightly more fragile feel because it is repeatedly reacting around a psychologically important area near $2,000. When a market hovers around a major round number after a rebound, it tends to behave like a magnet. It pulls price in both directions until one side finally wins acceptance.Educational note: round numbers like $2,000 and $70,000 are not magic, but they attract liquidity. That liquidity can amplify fakeouts and fast moves.The 4H footprint view: what the market is saying right nowWhen you zoom into the 4H footprint sequence, you can see the “story of effort vs result” more clearly.BTC 4H: push, rejection, then low-delta chopBTC printed a clean expansion higher, then got hit with a meaningful response sell bar. After that, the more recent bars show very small delta and smaller participation. That often means:Sellers took a shot and did not immediately get follow-throughBuyers are not aggressively lifting offers eitherThe market is rotating into balance, not trendingEducational note: low delta during sideways price action is often a “wait state.” The next break can be sharp because liquidity builds up while participation looks quiet.ETH 4H: rejection had more teeth, stabilization attempt followsETH also had the impulse higher, but its rejection bar looks more forceful and the stabilization is less convincing. The good news for bulls is that sell pressure appears to cool after the rejection. The challenge is that ETH still needs to reclaim overhead zones to prove that the rebound is turning into continuation.Educational note: a strong rejection followed by shrinking negative delta is a common early stabilization pattern. It is not a reversal signal by itself. It is a “pressure is reducing” signal that still needs confirmation from price acceptance.Key zones traders keep reacting to (why they matter)You can think of these as “acceptance tests.” The market often wicks into them, but what matters is whether price can hold and build above or below them.Bitcoin futuresOverhead supply zone: roughly $68,750-$69,000First support area: roughly $67,750Deeper support area: roughly $67,200-$66,700Why it matters: BTC is currently doing business in a range where both sides are probing. Acceptance above the overhead supply zone shifts odds toward continuation. Acceptance below the deeper support zone shifts odds toward a fade of the rebound.Ether futuresOverhead supply zone: roughly $2,075-$2,100First support area: roughly $2,055-$2,045Major psychological line: $2,000Why it matters: $2,000 is a liquidity magnet. Markets often whip around these levels. A clean hold above the overhead zone improves the bull case. Sustained trade below $2,000 tends to change sentiment quickly because it signals that the rebound failed to stick.What “sustained acceptance” actually means A lot of traders get chopped up because they treat one wick as confirmation.A more disciplined definition:One spike through a level is a testMultiple closes holding the level is acceptanceAcceptance plus follow-through is confirmationThis matters because both BTC and ETH are currently in conditions where fakeouts are common.Practical takeaways for crypto traders and investorsFor day tradersExpect chop until the market proves acceptance above or below the key zones.In balance regimes, getting “married to direction” tends to be expensive.Focus on reaction quality: does price hold above the reclaim, or snap back immediately?For swing traders and investorsThis is still a post-rebound digestion phase. That can resolve higher, or it can fade.You want to see the market build value higher over time, not just print one strong rebound day.If you are positioning longer-term, the best signal is usually not the first push, it is the ability to hold after the push.Crypto followers should now stay patient and watch the key price levelsDaily says: the rebound is real, but it is stalling under supply. 4H says: BTC is stalling in balance, ETH is stalling with a slightly stronger rejection.If 4H stays constructive while daily is still bearish: expect chop and sharp swings. That is often where traders get trapped. This is a stage that day traders should be disciplined with trailing stops, and considering to take partial profits fairly early. In this environment, the highest value skill is patience: wait for price acceptance (see the price mentioned above), not just a momentary spike. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.