Wall Street showed much resilience yesterday, with the S&P 500 once again hanging on a key technical support level. That's leading to a further bounce today with US futures now sitting up 0.6%. In Europe, that's also translating to more solid gains across the board as the risk mood perks up.DAX +0.8%CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +1.0%IBEX +1.4%FTSE MIB +1.2%Of note, the Stoxx 600 index is hitting record highs today but we're starting to see major benchmark indices also gear up for such a move.The DAX is about just over 1% away from its own record highs, with the CAC 40 just a whisker away by around 0.4%. In the UK, the FTSE 100 is already at fresh record highs after the inflation data earlier today here.Meanwhile, the IBEX is also just 0.3% away from its record highs with the FTSE MIB not too far away being just under 2% away from its own record highs.With worries about the AI trade and investors seeking alternatives to dollar-denominated trades, Europe is one spot that is seen picking up already since Q4 last year. Investors have already piled a lot of money into emerging markets but Europe also acts as an alternative hedge to broader market risks in general. Or should I say a hedge to the "US exceptionalism" trade, driven by big tech.Besides diversification risks, valuations are also viewed better and more attractive in Europe. Perhaps the only real drag has been a stronger euro currency and lesser tech-related exposure diamonds in the rough to pick from. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The bearish positioning in the US dollar remains crowded, so it’s hard to see much more weakness unless the data deteriorates significantly or we get some kind of negative shock in the economy. This week, all the important stuff will be released on Friday as we get the US Flash PMIs and the US Q4 GDP. We might also get the US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs.INR:The Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US Dollar, but the recent positive developments on the tariffs and inflation front gave the INR a boost. In fact, the US and India finally reached a trade deal and President Trump announced that he will lower the tariffs from 25% to 18%. The RBI held interest rates steady at the last meeting and last week we saw inflation rising to 2.75% in January from 1.33% in December. This should push rate cuts aside for the time being as inflation is now inside the 2-6% tolerance band of the 4% target. If the US Supreme Court rules against Trump’s tariffs we could see another strong rally in the Indian Rupee. On the other hand, if the Court were to keep the tariffs in place, nothing should change as the market has already adjusted to the tariffs. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR is consolidating at the lower bound of the channel as the dip-buyers continue to step in to position for a rally into the upper bound of the channel around the 93.00 handle. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to open the door for new lows with the 89.50 level as the first target.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above the downward trendline recently but couldn’t extend above the strong resistance zone around the 91.00. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the upper bound of the channel. The sellers, on the other hand, will continue to step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to target a break below the lower bound of the channel. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will likely continue to step in around the resistance, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Q4 GDP, the US PCE price index for December, the US Flash PMIs and the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The FOMC meeting minutes won't be the only standout event on the economic calendar today. This is one that will also be heavily watched by traders and investors, that especially since the US dollar has been heavily scrutinised in recent months. For all the talk about de-dollarisation and market players selling US assets, it hasn't quite showed up on demand for Treasuries.The previous report for November 2025 showed that foreign investor holdings of Treasury securities hit a record $9.36 trillion. And that is despite the fact that China's holdings dropped further to ~$683 billion, its lowest since 2008.It's no surprise that Japan continues to top the list with ~$1.20 trillion in holdings, with the UK in second with ~$888 billion in holdings.That being said, the important detail when looking into this report is to not take the numbers at face value. It is best to remember that the numbers here are only a measure of each country's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The thing about this is that some countries, or should I just single out China in this case, are still buying Treasures via non-US custodians.And that shows up in the numbers for the likes of Belgium and Luxembourg. As seen from the chart above, their holdings are going toe-to-toe with some of the major players in the world. And that is mostly because they act as a custodial hub for other foreign holders.So, that's one thing to take note of.The other key thing is to be aware of the continued shift in trend in terms of structural holdings of Treasuries and US debt. In other words, who is really driving the demand for Treasuries.And in this instance, it is no longer central banks for the most part. Instead, private investors i.e. hedge funds, pension funds, asset managers are now the dominant buyers. They have been for quite a while now. In the November report, private buying amounted to ~$158 billion - more than double the ~$64 billion by official institutions.What does this mean exactly?It shows that US funding is now becoming more increasingly dependent on market-based capital and not so much so on reserve recycling. To put things more simply, it's more about yield and financial demand rather than being a case of a geopolitical feature.So despite all the de-dollarisation rhetoric and backlash against the US since last year, Treasuries appear to remain structurally indispensable globally.However, it'll be wrong to quickly assume that Treasuries and the dollar system remains robust. Yes, it is still holding up strongly but so is the shifting trend to other markets.As a reminder, gold's share of global central bank reserves also surpassed that of Treasuries late last year. And that is the first such structural shift in the balance of holdings since 1996. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The ECB has won the battle against inflationInflation is not too low in FranceFrench inflation undershooting on temporary factorsDecision to leave early is personalVilleroy is the governor of the French central bank and he's generally considered a dove, although he changed his stance to neutral several months ago like most other ECB policymakers.The fact that he's downplaying the below-target inflation in France is a strong confirmation of his neutral stance and the overall ECB's wait-and-see approach to interest rates policy.The ECB has been the most successful central bank in bringing inflation down to target without causing pain in the economy. In fact, core inflation is now just a bit above the 2% target and the unemployment rate remains at record lows. Moreover, given the prior rate cuts and increased fiscal spending, the economic activity has been picking up steadily.Villeroy recently announced that he will be stepping down in June for personal reasons, over a year earlier before his term ends, but that won't affect the ECB policy of course. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

5PAY had an exciting 2025, and it’s kicking off 2026 with even more exciting news. After taking home an award for offering the best payment gateway APAC, the company is very proud to announce its new award win, but this time in the MEA region - ‘Best Payment Gateway MEA’ at the prestigious UF AWARDS MEA 2026. This reflects 5PAY’s dedication to its clients across the world and its continued mission to offer the best possible product and platform to them.Although their 2025 and 2026 award wins were a fantastic milestone, 5PAY used it as a motivator to surpass what they achieved. And their efforts are being rewarded. Winning one of the industry’s biggest, most prestigious, and credible awards means that 5PAY’s payment solutions can stand shoulder to shoulder with the best the market has to offer. An Ongoing Mission5PAY has dedicated vast resources to continually expanding the access its clients have. Recently, the company has dramatically enhanced its infrastructure by increasing its local payment coverage, strengthening its regulatory framework, and supporting even more secure payment access. With multiple solutions to cover practically every use-case scenario for financial services enterprises, including virtual accounts, fiat-to-fiat and crypto solutions, and the extremely popular, multicurrency QR Pay. It allows transactions in multiple global currencies via multiple funding sources, from widely used e-wallets to traditional financial institutions such as banks. All of 5PAY’s solutions are purpose-built to support an increase in conversions, while practically eliminating the potential for fraud. And they do so at every step of the payment flow, from initiation to the completion of a transaction. Stability, Scalability, and CustomisabilityOne of the biggest bottlenecks companies often face during rapid growth is legacy infrastructure limiting business expansion. Scalability and deployment speed are integral to 5PAY’s solutions. Not only are these payment tools built to keep up with robust growth, but they also have the ability to be integrated in a matter of seconds. Being able to accept payments from a list of countries that is being constantly expanded gives firms even more opportunities and ability to serve untapped markets. 5PAY also offers clients multiple packages: the complete integration package and the system integration. Full integration packageThis package offers clients a completely turn-key payment solution, including receiving accounts. It also includes personalised support for funds receivable, streamlined checkout flows, payouts, settlements, and asset stashing, all optimised. System integrationEasy to set up embedded payments with a full access dashboard, with the full support of 5PAY experts. A powerful yet affordable solution for businesses of all sizes and scales of operation. Award-winning Solutions for Asia, Southeast Asia, and beyond5PAY’s solutions are both compliant with local regulations and provide international merchants with scalable, secure payment access. Proof of this mission is both the “Best Payment Gateway” award in APAC at the UF AWARDS APAC 2025, and their most recent win in the same category in MEA, at the UF AWARDS MEA 2026. If you would like to amplify your growth with a reliable payment solution, visit https://www.my5pay.com/ or contact 5PAY via email at sales@my5pay.com. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been trading mostly sideways after the hot US NFP report and the slightly soft US CPI data of last week. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 60 bps of easing seen by year-end but overall, the data didn’t really change anything in the bigger picture. The bearish positioning in the US dollar remains crowded, so it’s hard to see much more weakness unless the data deteriorates significantly or we get some kind of negative shock in the economy. This week, all the important stuff will be released on Friday as we get the US Flash PMIs and the US Q4 GDP. We might also get the US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs.JPY:On the JPY side, we’ve seen a big “sell the fact” trade following the widely expected Takaichi’s victory in the lower house elections, but other than that, nothing has changed. In fact, the data hasn’t been supporting urgent rate hikes, and we haven’t got anything new from the central bank either. As a reminder, the BoJ held interest rates steady as expected at the last policy meeting and upgraded slightly growth and inflation forecasts due to the expansionary fiscal policies. Governor Ueda didn’t offer anything new in terms of forward guidance as he just repeated that they will keep raising rates if the economic outlook is realised. He also added that April price behaviour will be a factor to mull over a rate hike. This suggests that April is when they expect to deliver another rate hike if the data supports such a move. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to consolidate near the major trendline as traders await new catalysts to pick a direction. If we get a test of the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 159.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to open the door for a drop into the 146.00 handle next.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action near the trendline. There’s not much we can add here, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see two key swing levels defining the downtrend. The first one around the 153.70 level defines the consolidation. A break above it should see the buyers increasing the bullish bets into the next swing level at 154.65. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely continues to step in around the 153.70 resistance with a defined risk above it to keep targeting a break below the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI, the US Q4 GDP, the US PCE price index for December, the US Flash PMIs and the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It's rather common to see former BOJ policymakers deliver bold remarks after they have left the central bank. And this time is no different, with Yamamoto offering up some comments in an interview with MNI. He is one to have spent 36 years at the BOJ, before leaving to head the Office KY Initiative.His remarks places blame on the BOJ in not being proactive enough on monetary policy, and is now suffering for that as markets punish Japan with selling in the yen currency and in the JGB market. He now urges the central bank to correct that and to raise interest rates at a quarterly pace. Yamamoto says that:"Looking ahead, it is appropriate for the bank to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. The BOJ did not raise the policy rate consistently or in a timely manner and consequently, it is now paying the price through yen and JGB selling."Adding that the current policy rate remains a considerable distance away from what is perceived to be the neutral rate for Japan. Thus, he argues that quarterly rate hikes will be appropriate as opposed to moves that are spaced out every six months instead.At this point, Yamamoto says that the BOJ has little choice but to scrutinise the pace and terminal rate in trying to push forward with timing their rate hikes.He also warns that the central bank has to try and take action so as to not allow markets to keep pressuring Japanese assets, in particular the bond market. However, he did warn that taking the easy way out and intervening to curb rising yields may not be the best solution."If the BOJ leaves rapid JGB moves alone, it could face criticism. But it will also face a difficult challenge in deciding how to cope with them."Going back to inflation targeting and managing monetary policy, Yamamoto believes that the BOJ is now behind the curve so to speak. However, the response to high prices should be to tighten credit conditions and to have restrained fiscal spending. However, Takaichi implementing opposite measures to the BOJ is now making things rather difficult to find the right answer. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

RBNZ sees inflation falling toward target as recovery slowly builds, stays dovishUSD/INR steady as US yields support dollar, RBI offers cap upsideJapan outlines US investment projects, including $33bn gas power for data centresRBNZ’s Breman flags possible year-end hike, but says policy stays accommodativeRecap - RBNZ holds at 2.25% but brings forward implied timing of first rate hikeWestpac: China must shift to proactive policy in 2026 to sustain growthRBNZ holds OCR at 2.25%, lifts projected rate path modestly higherAustralian wage growth as expected and the same as prior quarterWestpac Leading Index slows to near-flat, signals cooling growth momentumJapan January exports surge much higher than expectedIMF urges Japan to keep raising rates, warns against sales tax cutsJapan manufacturers rebound in February Reuters Tankan, services sentiment slipsGoldman lifts AUD/USD forecasts to 0.74 as RBA hawkish stance supports outlookGoldman upgrades Japan to overweight, lifts TOPIX target to 4,300NZ data: Q4 PPI output +0.1% q/q (exp +0.7%, prior +0.6%) & inputs -0.5% (+0.5%, +0.2%)investingLive Americas market news wrap: Gold/oil tumble after Iran signals deal progressAt a glance:Japan exports surged at the fastest pace in over three years; trade minister flagged major US investment projects.Yen weakened modestly on the session but moves were contained.Australia’s Q4 wages rose 0.8% q/q; annual growth steady at 3.4%, little sign of acceleration.NZD led FX losses after the RBNZ struck a more dovish tone and reinforced an accommodative stance.AUD slipped alongside NZD; broader FX subdued amid regional holidays.Gold pushed back above US$4,900; oil traded quietly.Japan’s exports rose at their fastest annual pace in more than three years, with shipments to China and the European Union driving the strength. The upbeat trade data added to evidence of resilience in Japan’s external sector. Later in the session, Trade Minister Akazawa outlined several sizeable US investment projects spanning energy infrastructure and advanced materials, reinforcing the theme of deeper Japan–US economic alignment. The yen softened on the day, though the overall move was relatively modest.In Australia, wages grew at a moderate and steady clip in the fourth quarter. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the wage price index rose 0.8% q/q, matching the prior quarter and consensus expectations. Annual growth edged up to 3.4% from a revised 3.3%, remaining within the 3.2%–3.6% range seen over the past six quarters. The figures suggest stable wage pressures rather than renewed acceleration, leaving markets looking ahead to January labour force data on Thursday for a clearer steer on momentum.The New Zealand dollar was the clear underperformer in Asian trade. Sellers stepped in after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR steady and reiterated that monetary policy will need to remain accommodative for some time. The Bank’s tone was read as more dovish than expected, and Governor Breman reinforced that impression at the press conference. While she acknowledged a year-end rate hike was possible, she stressed that it is not built into the Bank’s projected rate path and would depend on materially stronger economic conditions and firmer inflation pressures. The near-term baseline, she emphasised, remains one of patience.AUD tracked lower alongside the kiwi, though losses were more contained.Elsewhere, major FX pairs were largely subdued, with China, Singapore and Hong Kong still on holiday. Oil price action was muted, while gold managed a renewed push above US$4,900.RBNZ cash rate remained unchanged. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25%, reiterated that policy will stay accommodative while inflation returns toward target, and brought forward its projections for a potential first hike, reinforcing a data-dependent, gradual normalisation path.Summary:The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR at 2.25%, reinforcing that policy remains supportive.The updated OCR track was lifted vs November, bringing the first potential hike closer but still conditional.The central bank views the economy as in the early stages of recovery and inflation returning toward target.Forecasts show inflation falling toward 2% and growth near 2.9% this year, underpinned by commodity strength but with persistent spare capacity.Markets broadly took the message as a balanced hold with doors open for later hikes, even if the pace of tightening remains slow.New Zealand’s central bank delivered a cautiously calibrated message alongside its decision to hold the Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, underscoring that monetary policy will stay accommodative “for some time” even as it subtly brings the possibility of future tightening into view.In the bank’s February 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, and as summarised in a note from Kiwibank analysts, policymakers reiterated that the economy remains in the early stages of recovery and that inflation is likely to fall back toward the midpoint of the 1–3% target band over the coming year. Spare capacity, modest wage growth and core inflation readings within the target range support the central forecast of inflation settling around 2%. There was also emphasis on balanced risks, with the global landscape still uncertain and domestic demand evolution key to how quickly price pressures dissipate. While the OCR was held as expected, the RBNZ’s revised projections lifted the end-of-year rate path to around 2.38%, a modest upward shift compared with the train of forecasts from November and signalling that policymakers now see the first rate rise as possible before year-end if the economy evolves as expected. Markets interpreted this as a subtle recalibration rather than a pronounced policy pivot — a reiteration that any future tightening will be gradual and data-dependent, not an imminent shift. Underlying data show that growth has gained traction since late 2025, and while non-tradable inflationary pressures have eased, tradable inflation remains elevated partly due to past currency weakness. The bank’s updated outlook also reflects a slightly less negative output gap and forecasts annual growth of around 2.9% this year, up on earlier estimates. Despite this improvement, significant spare capacity remains, including in labour markets, reinforcing the case for patience. For markets, the calibrated message delivered a familiar duality: support where needed, but openness to tightening if conditions warrant it. New Zealand swap rates and the kiwi dollar saw only modest moves post-decision, reflecting that the revised rate track was largely in line with expectations and that the emphasis remains on measured progression rather than a sudden shift in stance.In essence, the RBNZ has reaffirmed its commitment to accommodative policy for now, while signalling that tightening — hinted at for year-end — is becoming a more credible part of the medium-term outlook. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

USD/INR is expected to open flat as mildly firmer US front-end yields support the dollar, while persistent RBI offers around 90.70–90.80 cap upside and keep the pair range-bound. Summary:USD/INR seen opening largely flat around 90.66–90.70, with push-pull forces intact.Mild hawkish repricing in the US (front-end yields firmer) is supporting the dollar.Dollar index nudged up to 97.20, with most Asian FX softer.Upside in USD/INR capped by recurring RBI offers around 90.70–90.80 in recent sessions.Near-term bias: range trade unless US yields extend or RBI steps back.The Indian rupee looks set for another steady open, with USD/INR expected to begin the session largely flat around 90.66–90.70, as mild US yield support for the dollar runs into persistent supply from the Reserve Bank of India.The external driver remains a gentle lift in the US front end. The two-year US yield rose about 3bp on Tuesday and the dollar index edged higher to 97.20, leaving most Asian currencies on the back foot. The move reflects a small, slightly hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve outlook following comments from senior Fed official Barr that policy is likely to remain on hold for some time, a nuance markets interpreted as reducing near-term easing urgency and keeping front-end rates supported.For USD/INR, that combination typically tilts the balance toward a firmer dollar bias at the margin, particularly when broader regional FX is soft. But the local overlay continues to dominate day-to-day price action. Traders have repeatedly seen the RBI on the offer around 90.70–90.80 in recent sessions, effectively turning that zone into a near-term cap and reinforcing a contained range.The net result is a market that is struggling to build momentum in either direction. Higher US yields can keep USD/INR underpinned on dips, but the RBI’s recurring supply blunts upside follow-through and encourages mean reversion. In practice, that often produces “grind higher, fade higher” behaviour, with rallies meeting offers and pullbacks attracting dollar demand as long as the US rate backdrop remains supportive.Looking ahead, the near-term break points are straightforward. A renewed push higher in US front-end yields or a broader dollar leg-up would test the top of the range again. Conversely, any easing in US yields or improved risk tone across Asia would likely pressure USD/INR lower, but sustained downside would be harder to achieve if the RBI remains active in smoothing moves.Until one of those forces changes materially, USD/INR still looks geared toward a controlled, RBI-managed range rather than a directional trend. Added - USD/INR is tracking a little lower, as are Indian tech shares. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s trade minister outlined three US investment projects worth $600m, $2.1bn and $33.3bn, spanning artificial diamonds and energy infrastructure for data centres, and said Tokyo is coordinating with Washington while preparing a second batch of deals.Japan’s trade minister Akazawa outlined three US investment projects: $600m artificial diamond, $2.1bn crude oil, $33.3bn gas-fired thermal power for data centres.Japanese corporates named as interested parties span heavy industry, energy, tech and materials.Tokyo will “closely coordinate” with Washington on project details and is preparing a second batch of deals.Akazawa said work will factor in PM Sanae Takaichi’s planned US visit.Theme: Japan-US economic alignment via energy security and data-centre power buildout.Japan is lining up a fresh wave of investment initiatives in the United States, with Trade Minister Akazawa detailing three flagship projects that span advanced materials and large-scale energy infrastructure designed to support the fast-growing power needs of data centres.Akazawa said the three projects include $600 million earmarked for an artificial diamond initiative, $2.1 billion tied to a crude oil project, and a far larger $33.3 billion investment linked to gas-fired thermal power capacity for data centres. The scale of the energy component underscores how the AI and cloud buildout is increasingly shaping cross-border capital flows, as countries and corporates look to secure reliable generation capacity and fuel supply chains.Tokyo’s messaging also stressed coordination rather than a one-off announcement. Akazawa said Japan will continue to closely coordinate with US counterparts on the details of the projects, while also working with Washington on a second batch of investment deals. He added that preparations will keep in mind Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s planned visit to the United States, suggesting a broader diplomatic timetable alongside the commercial pipeline.Akazawa named a wide range of Japanese firms expressing interest. For the artificial diamond project, he said Asahi Diamond and Noritake are among those interested — a sign of focus on specialised manufacturing inputs and high-performance materials. On the energy project, Akazawa said interest includes major industrial and technology groups such as Toshiba, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric and SoftBank Group, highlighting the overlap between power infrastructure, electrification and digital investment themes.For the crude oil project, he said parties showing interest include MOL, Nippon Steel, JFE Steel and Modec, pointing to potential involvement from shipping, industrial users and offshore engineering capability. Akazawa also noted that multiple smaller Japanese firms are interested in related US investment opportunities connected to parts supply, implying a broader supply-chain footprint beyond headline corporates.For markets, the emphasis is twofold. First, the scale of the gas-fired power investment puts energy and infrastructure at the centre of the Japan-US investment narrative, with potential read-throughs for engineering, equipment and utility-linked value chains. Second, the sequencing — coordination on details now, followed by a second batch of deals — suggests Tokyo is positioning these projects as a rolling programme rather than a single political deliverable.The details of partners, locations, financing structures and timelines were not specified in the remarks, leaving scope for further updates as US coordination progresses. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Governor Breman reinforced the RBNZ’s “accommodative for some time” stance while acknowledging a possible year-end hike, stressing any move depends on stronger growth and inflation pressure and that normalisation would be gradual. Summary Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman reinforced the post-decision message: policy stays accommodative, with only gradual normalisation ahead.Breman said there is a possibility of a rate hike by year-end, but the OCR track is conditional on the economy evolving as expected.She stressed the Bank is not planning to hike until it sees a stronger economy and clearer inflation pressure.Breman noted a Q4 hike is not fully priced into the Bank’s projected path.Housing: the RBNZ does not expect a fast rise in house prices.New Zealand’s central bank used its post-decision press conference to reinforce a carefully balanced message: policy remains accommodative for now, but the door is slightly more open to a first rate hike later this year if the recovery and inflation pressures firm.Following the decision to hold the Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said the projected OCR track should be read as conditional rather than a pre-commitment. The profile is “based on how we see the economy evolving,” she noted, echoing the Monetary Policy Committee’s statement that settings are likely to remain supportive “for some time” and will only normalise gradually as the recovery strengthens and inflation moves sustainably toward the 2% midpoint.Breman acknowledged there is a “possibility” of a rate hike by the end of the year, a nuance that aligns with the Bank’s updated projections and the earlier shift in emphasis versus November. But she also pushed back against any interpretation that the RBNZ is gearing up for a rapid tightening cycle. The central bank is “not planning to hike until we see a stronger economy” and “more inflationary pressure,” she said, underscoring that the near-term baseline remains one of patience.In a detail likely to draw attention in markets, Breman said a fourth-quarter move is not fully priced into the Bank’s projected OCR path. In other words, while the track allows for the possibility of a year-end hike, it does not assume an aggressive or mechanical step-up — consistent with the statement’s guidance that accommodation will be withdrawn only gradually.On the housing market, Breman said the RBNZ does not expect to see a fast rise in house prices. That framing fits with the broader assessment that households remain cautious and the recovery is still at an early stage — factors that would normally argue for a measured approach to normalisation.For investors, the takeaway is continuity with a subtle shift: the RBNZ is inching the timing conversation forward, but it is still setting a high bar for action and signalling that any hiking phase, if it begins, is likely to be slow.Pretty dovish from the RBNZ Governor. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBNZ held rates at 2.25% but brought forward the implied timing of its first hike, signalling a slightly firmer outlook than in November while maintaining that policy will remain accommodative for now.Summary:Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR at 2.25%, as expected.Policy still described as accommodative for some time.OCR track now implies a potential hike by late (really late) 2026, earlier than signalled in November.Inflation briefly above target; labour market stabilising but still soft.Markets trimmed near-term hike odds; NZD and front-end rates eased.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%, reinforcing a cautious but subtly firmer policy message in its first decision of the year.As widely anticipated, the Committee opted to hold steady, reiterating that monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time while the recovery strengthens and inflation returns sustainably toward the 2% midpoint of its 1–3% target band. Annual CPI had edged slightly above the band at the end of 2025, though policymakers continue to expect inflation to settle back inside target in the current quarter.The shift in emphasis lies not in the hold itself, but in the forward guidance. The updated OCR track now points to the cash rate at 2.38% by the end of this year, implying the possibility of a hike sooner than previously signalled. At the November 2025 meeting, projections had effectively pushed any tightening discussion well into the outer years. The latest profile suggests the Committee is now more open to removing accommodation earlier — though only if the recovery evolves broadly as expected.Minutes underscored that the decision to hold was reached by consensus. While members agreed policy must remain supportive, they also acknowledged risks around inflation persistence and the possibility that stimulus may need to be withdrawn somewhat earlier should activity firm convincingly. That nuance marks a modest recalibration rather than a hawkish pivot.The economic backdrop remains fragile. Output has returned to growth but only after a prolonged downturn. The labour market is stabilising, yet unemployment remains elevated. Housing activity is subdued, with prices still well below their post-pandemic peaks in major centres. Headwinds from weak household spending and softer government demand continue to weigh on momentum.Market reaction reflected the balanced tone. The New Zealand dollar eased modestly and short-term swap rates dipped, as traders pared back expectations of a move, pushing pricing more decisively toward December.In sum, the RBNZ is not rushing toward tightening. However, compared with November, it has edged the conversation forward. The bias has shifted slightly upward, even as the central bank stresses patience.Staying tuned now for press conference. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China achieved 5% growth in 2025 on export strength, but analysts warn that sustaining momentum in 2026 will require a proactive shift toward boosting domestic demand and stabilising housing.Summary:China met its 5.0% GDP growth target in 2025, supported heavily by net exports.Export gains to Asia, Europe and Latin America offset US trade pressures.Manufacturing investment held up, especially in EVs, electronics and infrastructure.Property investment fell sharply again, domestic demand remains weak.The note argues Beijing must adopt a more proactive pro-growth stance in 2026 to prevent structural slowdown.China’s economy hit its official 5.0% growth target in 2025, but a new research note argues that meeting expectations last year only sharpens the policy challenge for 2026, and raises the urgency for a decisive shift toward domestic demand support.According to the analysis, the standout feature of 2025 was the resilience of Chinese industry in the face of US trade policy. Rather than suffering material damage, exporters redirected goods aggressively to alternative markets. Trade surpluses with Asia, Europe and Latin America expanded strongly, more than offsetting lost US opportunities. The authors also highlight the rapid expansion of Chinese-owned production facilities abroad, arguing that scale, lower costs and stronger global integration are creating durable earnings and revenue dividends for firms and the state.Domestically, the picture was more mixed. Overall fixed asset investment fell 3.8% in 2025, yet manufacturing investment still eked out growth despite tariff uncertainty and official pressure against unprofitable production. High-tech sectors such as electronics and chemicals remain at elevated investment levels following the 2020–2024 boom. The automotive sector, particularly electric vehicles, continues to expand capacity to meet global demand. China’s power generation and grid infrastructure buildout also stands in contrast to slower Western investment trends.The concern, the note argues, is sustainability. Net exports and associated industrial investment now represent a larger share of the economy than before the pandemic. With China’s share of global production already near record highs, that growth engine cannot keep accelerating indefinitely. To sustain growth near 5% in 2026 and beyond, policymakers will need to engineer a shift toward stronger household consumption and a stabilisation in housing.Property investment fell another 17% in 2025, and consumer sentiment remains cautious. The authors argue that the political hesitation to stimulate housing and household demand has largely run its course and that delaying action risks embedding a structurally weaker growth trend.A key warning is that local government-led investment cannot sustain expansion on its own. Without a revival in private consumption and related business investment, land sales and tax revenues will remain constrained, limiting regional fiscal capacity.The note ends on a constructive point: Chinese households retain high liquid savings and real income growth has been resilient. With property and land prices deeply depressed, a credible central government stimulus could unlock pent-up demand quickly and broaden activity across sectors and regions.The central message is clear: the growth pulse now hinges on policy resolve. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25%, signalling inflation is returning to target while revising its future rate path slightly higher. Policy remains accommodative for now, but gradual normalisation is expected.Summary:Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves OCR unchanged at 2.25%.Inflation slightly above 1–3% band at end-2025 but expected back inside target this quarter.Forward OCR track revised higher versus previous projections.Economy in early recovery; labour market stabilising but unemployment elevated.Committee signals policy to remain accommodative “for some time,” with gradual normalisation ahead.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%, striking a cautiously balanced tone as it navigates an early-stage recovery, above-target inflation and a gradually firming policy outlook.Annual CPI was described as “slightly above” the Monetary Policy Committee’s 1–3% target band at the end of 2025, with food, electricity and council rates cited as key contributors. However, the central bank expressed confidence that inflation is most likely returning to within the band in the current quarter and tracking toward the 2% midpoint over the next 12 months, supported by spare capacity, modest wage growth and contained core inflation.The economic backdrop remains mixed. The RBNZ said the economy is at an early stage of recovery, with strength in commodity prices supporting agricultural and regional activity. Manufacturing, construction and some retail sectors are benefiting from earlier OCR cuts. Yet households remain cautious, house price growth is weak and unemployment remains elevated despite signs of labour market stabilisation.The most market-relevant development lies in the updated policy track, which signals a slightly firmer medium-term stance:RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 2.26% in June 2026 (PVS 2.2%)RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 2.52% in March 2027 (PVS 2.34%)RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 2.62% in June 2027 (PVS 2.45%)RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 3.0% in March 2029RBNZ sees TWI NZD at around 68.0% in March 2027 (PVS 66.0%)RBNZ sees annual CPI 2.1% by March 2027 (PVS 2.2%)The upward revision to the OCR path suggests that while the near-term stance remains accommodative, the Committee anticipates a gradual removal of stimulus as the recovery firms and inflation settles sustainably near target.Minutes revealed a consensus decision to hold rates, though members acknowledged risks in both directions. Some highlighted the danger of policy remaining accommodative for too long, with inflation potentially more persistent. Others warned against reacting too quickly to firms’ pricing intentions, which could entrench expectations of stronger demand.The Committee reiterated that if the economy evolves as expected, policy will remain accommodative for some time before gradually normalising. However, the subtly higher projected rate path implies that markets may need to price a slightly steeper tightening profile over the medium term.For NZD and rates traders, the message is clear: steady for now, but the direction of travel has shifted marginally upward. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This post is just for getting the decision out quickly. Added - MUCH more here, details analysis etc:RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25%, lifts projected rate path modestly higherNZD/USD has been marked a little lower on the announcement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

In line data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Westpac’s Leading Index slowed to near-flat in January, signalling growth momentum has slipped back to trend. Consumer and housing weakness offset commodity support, with GDP still seen at 2.5% in 2026.Summary:Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index slows to +0.02% in January (from +0.44%).Growth momentum shifts from slightly above trend to broadly in line with trend.Consumer sentiment and dwelling approvals the main drags.Commodity price gains cushioned weakness, but AUD strength may dilute support.Westpac still sees 2.5% GDP growth in 2026, with next RBA hike likely in May.Australia’s growth pulse has flattened at the start of 2026, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index slowing sharply in January, signalling that momentum has slipped back to trend after a modest lift late last year.The six-month annualised growth rate of the index — which tracks economic activity three to nine months ahead — eased to +0.02% in January from +0.44% in December, effectively stalling. Westpac said the earlier second-half pick-up in 2025 was never especially convincing, and the latest reading suggests that momentum has once again faded.The weakness was centred on the domestic consumer and housing sectors. The Westpac-MI Consumer Expectations Index shaved 0.16 percentage points off the growth rate over the past six months, while dwelling approvals detracted a further 0.23 points. While approvals have been volatile month to month, softer consumer sentiment appears more entrenched, reflecting shifting interest-rate expectations and the impact of February’s Reserve Bank hike.Commodity prices provided some offset, contributing 0.36 percentage points over the past half-year. However, Westpac noted that gains in USD-denominated commodity prices were partly diluted by a firmer Australian dollar, with the recent acceleration in AUD strength likely to dampen future readings if sustained.Despite the softer signal, Westpac continues to forecast GDP growth of 2.5% in 2026, broadly in line with trend. The bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to tread cautiously at its March meeting but sees another 25bp rate hike in early May, contingent on a still-elevated quarterly CPI reading due April 29.For now, the Leading Index suggests the tightening cycle is beginning to weigh, reinforcing expectations of an “on again, off again” growth profile this year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Exports to the US -5% y/yto EU +29.6%to China +32% y/y I'll have more to come on this separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The IMF urged Japan to continue gradual rate hikes toward neutral by 2027 and warned against cutting the consumption tax, highlighting fiscal risks as Takaichi’s government pushes ahead with tax relief plans.Summary:International Monetary Fund urges Japan to keep raising rates gradually to neutral by 2027.Warns against cutting the consumption tax, saying it would erode fiscal space and raise debt risks.Calls for near-term fiscal restraint and a credible medium-term anchor.Says Bank of Japan should intervene only if bond market liquidity deteriorates.Political tension: PM Sanae Takaichi and allies continue backing a sales tax pause despite IMF caution.The International Monetary Fund has delivered a pointed message to Japan: continue tightening monetary policy, avoid fresh fiscal loosening, and think carefully before tampering with the consumption tax.In its latest policy assessment, the IMF said the Bank of Japan is “appropriately withdrawing monetary accommodation” and should continue raising interest rates gradually so the policy rate reaches a neutral setting by 2027. With inflation running above the 2% target for nearly four years and the policy rate already lifted to 0.75%, the highest in three decades, the Fund argues that steady normalisation remains justified as long as the baseline outlook holds.The sharper warning, however, was directed at fiscal policy. The IMF cautioned that reducing Japan’s consumption tax would “erode fiscal space and add to fiscal risks,” leaving the country more exposed to future shocks. It urged near-term fiscal restraint and the establishment of a clearly defined medium-term anchor to stabilise public finances.That advice appears unlikely to shift the domestic political calculus. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her allies have continued to advocate suspending the 8% food sales tax for two years following her election victory, framing the move as necessary support for households. Markets have already shown sensitivity to the prospect of looser fiscal settings, with bond yields and the yen reacting sharply late last year amid deficit concerns.The IMF also addressed financial stability. As the BOJ reduces bond purchases and shrinks its balance sheet, it should monitor market liquidity closely. If volatility undermines functioning, the central bank should stand ready to deploy targeted emergency bond-buying operations. At the same time, the Fund welcomed Japan’s commitment to a flexible exchange rate regime, arguing that currency flexibility helps absorb external shocks and preserves monetary policy credibility.For investors, the tension between IMF orthodoxy and Tokyo’s fiscal ambitions remains a central risk theme for 2026.Japan PM Takaichi will probably show the IMF a different finger on their sales tax recommendation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.