The RBNZ is expected to hold rates steady, but a recent lift in food price inflation adds nuance. Markets will focus on the tone of the statement, with the NZD at risk if policymakers sound more relaxed about inflation.SummaryReserve Bank of New Zealand meets Wednesday, 18 February 2026; policy widely expected to remain on hold.statement due 2pm New Zealand time (0100 GMT / 2000 US Eastern time on Tuesday 17 February)Recent inflation data showed some renewed firmness, with food prices posting a noticeable jump.Headline pressures are not yet viewed as enough to force immediate tightening.Statement tone will be closely watched for hints on persistence in domestic inflation.NZD vulnerable to downside if the Bank leans dovish or emphasises growth risks.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to deliver its latest policy decision on Wednesday, 18 February, with markets widely expecting the Official Cash Rate to remain unchanged.Recent inflation data have added a layer of interest to the meeting. While overall price growth remains broadly consistent with a gradual disinflation trend, the latest figures showed a renewed lift in food price inflation. New Zealand Food Prices in January +2.5% m/mprior 0.3%+4.6% y/y (prior +4%)Food prices make up nearly 19 percent of the consumer price index.The move was not extreme, but it was noticeable enough to remind markets that price pressures have not fully disappeared. Food costs can be volatile, yet sustained strength in this component has the potential to influence inflation expectations if it persists.Despite this, the broader picture does not yet appear strong enough to compel the RBNZ into a rate increase. Economic momentum has been uneven, and policymakers are likely to balance signs of lingering inflation against ongoing risks to household demand and business confidence.The key for markets may lie less in the decision itself and more in the accompanying statement. If the Bank highlights upside risks from domestic price pressures, including food and services inflation, expectations for future tightening could firm modestly. However, if policymakers lean into concerns about growth or signal confidence that inflation will continue to ease over time, rate expectations may soften.Currency markets are sensitive to tone shifts. With positioning already cautious, a statement that fails to reinforce a tightening bias could leave the New Zealand dollar vulnerable to a modest pullback. Conversely, any suggestion that inflation risks remain skewed to the upside may help stabilise the currency.For now, the baseline remains a steady hand, watchful, data-dependent and alert to both inflation persistence and downside growth risks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of Australia minutes feature on the event agenda, preview here. Otherwise it could well be a bit dreary here today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBA’s February minutes are expected to reinforce the case for its return to tightening, highlighting persistent inflation, firm demand and ongoing capacity pressures, without signalling any major shift from the guidance already provided.Summary:RBA to publish minutes from February meeting that lifted the cash rate to 3.85%.Due at 11.30am Sydney time, which is 0030 GMT / 1930 US Eastern time. Hike was widely expected after inflation moved back above the 2–3% target band.Minutes unlikely to contain major surprises after extensive commentary from Governor Michele Bullock.Focus will be on language around persistence of inflation, demand strength and capacity pressures.Tone may reinforce that further tightening remains possible if inflation fails to moderate.The rationale behind the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first rate increase in more than two years will be laid out in detail when the minutes of the February monetary policy meeting are released.At that meeting, the board lifted the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the first hike since November 2023. The move followed a renewed lift in inflation, which pushed price growth back above the Bank’s 2–3% target range and signalled that disinflation had stalled.Markets were not caught off guard. The rate rise had been broadly anticipated after data through late 2025 showed inflation pressures picking up and proving more persistent than previously expected. Since the decision, Governor Michele Bullock has addressed the reasoning behind the move at a press conference and in parliamentary testimony, meaning the minutes are unlikely to deliver dramatic new revelations.Instead, the focus will be on nuance. Investors will scrutinise how strongly the board emphasised demand strength, labour market tightness and broader capacity constraints in the economy. Previous communication indicated that private demand had been running ahead of earlier forecasts and that supply capacity remained limited, adding to price pressures.The board has also flagged that inflation accelerated in the second half of 2025 and may remain elevated through 2026. While some of the rise has been attributed to temporary influences, policymakers have acknowledged that underlying momentum in consumer spending and business investment surprised to the upside.The minutes may reinforce that policy remains data dependent but retains a tightening bias. If demand growth outpaces supply and inflation fails to ease convincingly, further rate increases remain a live possibility. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canada January housing starts 238.0K vs 257.5K expectedCanada December manufacturing sales +0.6% vs +0.5% expectedThe EU and a 12-nation Indo-Pacific bloc are opening talksFour charts that highlight the worries that are driving markets right nowThe Pentagon is close to cutting ties with Anthropic and may label the AI company a supply chain risk after becoming frustrated with restrictions on how it can use the technology - BBGMarkets:Gold down $51 to $4990WTI crude oil up 84-cents to $63.73US bonds and stocks closedS&P 500 futures up 0.1%AUD leads, JPY lagsThe US and much of Canada was on a holiday. It was also the start of the lunar new year in much of Asia so that predictably kept a lid on markets. The moves across assets were limited but there was a persistent modest bid in the US dollar.The euro slowly slid to 1.1845 from 1.1860 before bouncing halfway back. USD/CAD also 20 pips to 1.3635.In energy markets, the tone on the US-Iran situation was positive late last week and into the weekend but the market can't shake the feeling that something is coming, especially after a report that more F-35 jets have been dispatched to the Middle East. Crude steadily climbed to $63.75 from $62.75.Gold was lower on the day but the damage was done in Asia and it was a sideways trade in the US. The post-Lunar New Year period is classic end to the long seasonal tailwind from Nov-Feb so keep it on your radar for the next two weeks.US stock futures had been positive earlier but then gave it all back before finishing flat. It was tough to get excited about it with the market closed but I'm sure Tuesday will be more lively. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I’ve got four charts crossing the desk today that paint a complicated picture for the Fed and the USD. We have a specific sector falling off a cliff, broader resilience, a sentiment reset, and the one thing Jay Powell doesn't want to see: inflation ticking back up.1. The Tech Sector is falling off a cliffFirst up, take a look at Tech-Related Information Employment.For the last two years, we've heard about "efficiency" and "AI integration," but the headcount held up reasonably well through 2024 and most of 2025. We are seeing a massive purging of payrolls in data processing and hosting right now in early 2026. This is high-income demand destruction happening in real-time.2. ...But the broader labor market is stabilizing?While tech is getting battered, the team at Goldman Sachs sees the broader picture differently.Their estimate for underlying trend job growth—which adjusts for all the immigration noise and catch-up effects—suggests the bottom is in. After a rough patch in late 2025 where the trend dipped into negative territory, the forecast (that red arrow) is pointing to a rebound back toward 50k-100k trend growth.The caveat is that the birth-death model is tricky at the moment. Here is what Goldman Sachs wrote:The BLS introduced a methodological change to how it estimates net business formation (the “birth-death” model) that we suspect increased the volatility of monthly job growth in January. We estimate that the birth-death model boosted job growth in January by about 70k relative to December (SA by GS), of which about 50k came from the healthcare and education sector. Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth based on the payroll and household surveys now stands at +55k, though we note that more volatile payrolls readings from the birth-death methodological change could argue for putting a little less weight on payroll growth or smoothing it over a longer horizon than we currently use in our estimates.3. The "FOMO" is goneThe best news for the bulls might actually be this sentiment check.We spent a lot of 2025 with the GS Equity Sentiment Indicator flashing "stretched" (above 1.0). When everyone is all-in, it’s hard to find a new buyer.As of Friday (Feb 13), we are sitting at a Z-score of (0.2). We’ve washed out the euphoria. Positioning is now officially "light" to neutral. Historically, when sentiment resets to this level without a full-blown recession, it sets the stage for a bounce. 4. The Inflation headache isn't overFinally, here is the fly in the ointment.The HBS Pricing Lab data shows that after a nice dip in late 2025, daily pricing indexes are curling back up to start 2026. Both the "Cheapest" and "Most expensive" baskets are bid, as the WSJ highlights today.This confirms the narrative that the "last mile" of inflation is sticky. With the broader labor market stabilizing, companies might have pricing power again.The Verdict: The market wants cuts because Tech is hurting (Chart 1). But the real economy (Chart 2) and prices (Chart 4) suggest the Fed can't be aggressive. With sentiment washed out (Chart 3), I’d be wary of getting too bearish on equities here, but the FX play looks like choppy waters for the USD until we get clarity on that pricing trend. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

USD/JPY has been the most-interesting forex pair of the past couple years as volatility remains elevated and a pair of 18-big figure trends have unfolded.More recently, we've seen a sharp move down to 152.00 from 159.00 following the latest Japanese election. In it, Senae Takaichi's LDP party won a super majority in the Lower House, giving her a strong hand to guide policy. That move was somewhat counter-intuitive as she's pledged more spending at a time when the Japanese fiscal deficit is increasingly problematic. Instead, her pro-growth policies and ability to navigate what's coming with a stable leadership was rewarded.There has also been a rush into Japanese equities since the results with the Nikkei rising as much as 6.9% last week. Those flows may have underpinned the rally in the yen and the associated drop in USD/JPY.There is also the persistent talk and fear of intervention. It's clear that Japanese officials don't want to see the pair above 160.00 and grow increasingly alarmed as prices flirted with that level in January.The chart is an interesting one as the long trend from Liberation Day to January ran from 140.00 to 159.45. The rate check rumors in January led to a sharp gap lower on a Friday that continued briefly the following week before a sharp bounce to 157.50. The latest leg lower following the election now threatens a double bottom at 152.00.I think the pair is vulnerable to the downside but there's no need to chase it until it cracks 152.00 as the momentum from there could easily take it through the figure, particularly if US economic data takes a more-dovish shift.Zooming out to the weekly chart, it's a daunting picture as it looks like the pair is consolidating in preparation for a test/break of the 160.00 level. If so, there are 20 big figures of upside there and a whole lot of jawboning (if not intervention) from the Ministry of Finance.This is has been a very interesting pair for a few years and I don't see that changing any time soon. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Ethereum is frozen as the crypto winter continues.And it's not frozen in a great spot as it carves out a range near the lows of the year. I would have liked to have seen a stronger bounce after the drop since late January but so far it hasn't materialized. Instead, it's stuck near $2000 and we're waiting for the next move.On the daily chart, I don't think you need to get any more complicated than this.The next move will be dictated by which side of that wedge we break out on but I'm biased to the downside because the overall backdrop in both crypto and risk assets is poor at the moment.The bounce from the bottom has been uninspiring and it's tough to find and real advocates for crypto right now. In venture capital, AI is soaking up all the funds and even some long-time crypto builders have filtered out.When I zoom out further, I'm reminded of just how brutal the 2022 selloff was it crashed to a low of $879 from a high of $4867 from November to June.This time, ETH peaked at $4822 in August (though it stayed nearby until October) and has fallen to $1975 so far. Unfortunately, the selloff patterns look awfully similar and the double top is ominous.Beyond just crypto, what worries me about this chart is what it says about broader risk appetite. There has been some disconnect between crypto and tech that's unique over the past decade but I find it hard to imagine another trip down to $800 without some serious pain in the Nasdaq as well.All the elements are there as the worries about AI disruption spiral. Even a good set of earnings so far in Q1 hasn't helped to change the narrative as we brace for more and more model releases. What happens when OpenAI delivers another leap forward or Claude Plugins disrupt an incumbent? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's a holiday in the US today and markets are closed but it's also a holiday in China as lunar new year celebrations back up.The most-watched TV show in China annually is the CCTV Spring Festival gala and in the past few years, it's turned into a demostration of the cutting edge of humanoid robotics. This year's edition is live right now and what I've seen so far is impressive. It's another leap forward from last year's edition, which went viral at the time. The martial arts showcased robots operating at at least an elite human level with swords and nunchucks and all kinds of other scenarios, including them jumping off springloaded boards.As far as I could see it was flawless. There was even one part where a robot falls over and it looks like the performers are coming over pick him up and then the machine spins and jumps to its feet -- all part of the act.Other acts showed humor and a variety of interactions with robots.The performances did appear to be live but you never really know as there weren't many wide shots.In any case, China is winning this race and it's clear where it's headed. These robots are doing pretend fighting but it won't be long before they do real fighting -- and not with swords and staffs. The companies behind the featured robots were Unitree, Galbot, Noetix and MagicLab. Notably, Unitree is preparing for an IPO this year in what will surely be one of the biggest domestic IPOs ever.Reuters notes that President Xi has met with five robotics startup founders this year compared to four in electric vehicles and four in semi-conductors in the same timeframe.In terms of US markets, I just can't see how Tesla has the valuation it does. The automotive side of the company is failing as sales slump precipitously and robotaxi -- even if successful -- just isn't that big of a market.In robotics, Optimus isn't even a working demo while China has the ability to build these machines at unprecedented scale. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -1.2%Sales of C$71.0 billion Gains in 12 of 21 subsectors led by motor vehicles +12.0%Sales down 1.1% y/ySales up 0.2% q/qInventories -1.2%Unfilled orders +0.4%The drop in inventories is going to be a drag on Q4 GDP and the sales numbers in the quarter aren't particularly inspiring either. The Canadian economy finished the year on soft footing. The Canadian consumer was a surprising source of strength in 2026 but it will be hard to keep that momentum going through 2026 if there isn't help from manufacturing, commodity markets or housing.Canadian manufacturing had a turbulent 2025, shaped heavily by US tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and shifting commodity prices. After a solid first quarter where sales totalled $217.9 billion (up 1.6% quarter-over-quarter), the sector hit a wall in Q2. Sales plunged 4.8% to $206.0 billion — the steepest quarterly drop since the pandemic-era decline in Q2 2020 — as tariffs on Canadian goods took a significant toll on petroleum and coal products, motor vehicles, and primary metals. April saw the sharpest monthly decline at 2.8% to $69.6 billion, with roughly half of manufacturers reporting direct tariff impacts. May dipped further to $68.7 billion, the lowest level since January 2022.The third quarter brought a meaningful recovery. Sales rebounded 2.8% to $212.3 billion, the strongest quarterly gain since Q2 2022, capped by a 3.3% surge in September to $72.1 billion — the highest since February. Transportation equipment and petroleum and coal products led the rebound.That momentum stalled in Q4. October saw sales fall 1.0% to $71.5 billion as chemical products dropped 6.0%, wood products plunged 9.0% to their lowest since July 2020 (hit hard by U.S. tariffs triggering sawmill closures), and transportation equipment slipped 2.3%. Sales declined in six provinces, led by Ontario and Quebec.November brought a steeper 1.2% decline to $70.8 billion, with 15 of 21 subsectors posting losses. Motor vehicle sales fell 15.9% to $3.8 billion — the lowest since October 2022 — after global semiconductor shortages disrupted a major assembly plant and rippled through the parts supply chain. Motor vehicle parts dropped 6.3% and machinery fell 3.2%. Petroleum and coal products bucked the trend, rising 6.8% to $8.2 billion on higher prices and the end of a refinery maintenance shutdown. Ontario and British Columbia led provincial declines. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.72, reflecting weakening demand relative to supply. An advance estimate for December pointed to a modest 0.5% rebound, led by the food subsector and motor vehicles. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 282.4KStarts down 15% m/mNon-seasonally adjusted starts -3.5% m/mCanada's housing construction picture in Q4 2025 told a story of fading momentum punctuated by a strong December finish. For the full year, CMHC reported total housing starts of 259,028 units across all areas, up 5.6% from 245,367 in 2024 — the fifth-highest annual total on record. Rental housing drove much of the gain, accounting for over half of all urban starts for a second consecutive year.In October, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) dropped sharply by 17% to 232,765 units from September's 279,174, as Ontario and British Columbia pulled back significantly. Toronto saw a 42% year-over-year decline and Vancouver fell 36%, while Montreal surged 104% on strong multi-unit activity. The six-month trend slipped 3% to 268,907 units.November brought a partial recovery, with the SAAR rising 9.4% to 254,058 units. However, actual starts were down 3% year-over-year at 21,870 units, and the six-month trend continued declining, falling 1.7% to 264,445. CMHC noted slowing momentum driven by weakness in Ontario, B.C., and Alberta.December closed the year on a high note, with the SAAR jumping 11% to 282,439 units. Actual starts surged 25% year-over-year to 20,716 units — the most for any December on record — led by Ontario posting its highest monthly total of 2025. Among the big three cities, Toronto rebounded with a 151% year-over-year increase, Montreal posted a 123% gain, and Vancouver rose 17%.Despite the strong finish, CMHC Chief Economist Mathieu Laberge cautioned that most of 2025's momentum occurred in the spring and summer, with the six-month trend declining steadily since September. Economic uncertainty and the reduced viability of large residential towers shifted developers toward smaller-scale projects, leaving housing starts entering 2026 from a weaker position. CMHC estimates that 430,000 to 480,000 new units per year are needed to restore affordability — roughly double the current pace. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

NZDUSD stays rangebound ahead of the RBNZ decision: traders expect no change to the OCROil prices in the spotlight ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks in GenevaSilver's faltering recovery last week not a good early signIt's a big week for the British Pound as major UK economic data loomEUR/USD still caught meandering after post-payrolls drop last weekMarket outlook for the week of 16th-20th FebruaryUSDJPY consolidates at a major trendline as traders await new catalysts for directionBOJ governor Ueda says had regular information exchange with Japan prime minister TakaichiSwiss economy estimated to grow by 1.4% overall in 2025What are the main events for today?Structural selling in the dollar more likely to come from Europe - BofAFX option expiries for 16 February 10am New York cutDollar rebalancing theme to remain in focus this week - Credit AgricoleReminder: US markets are closed todayIt's been a very boring session amid lack of news and data releases. The US holiday isn't helping either as the price action in the markets has been mostly rangebound as traders are still digesting last week's US data. Overall, the bigger picture hasn't changed as we're seeing improvements in the US labour market without a re-acceleration in inflation.This week, we have a pretty empty calendar in terms of major data releases but Friday is going to be a big day as we get the Flash US PMIs, the US Q4 GDP and a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs. Until then, we might just keep on consolidating unless we get some other catalyst in the meantime.In the US session, we have only the Canadian housing starts data which isn't going to change anything for the BoC, so the market reaction will likely be muted. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny the market pricing. Given the negligible changes to the big picture after all the data, the US dollar remained mostly rangebound with mixed performance against the major currencies. The future outlook will still be guided by the evolution of the data. This week, all the important stuff will be released on Friday as we get the US Flash PMIs and the Q4 GDP. We might also get the US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs.NZD:On the NZD side, the RBNZ is widely expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday. At the last meeting, the central bank’s projections implied a pause through 2026. The market disagrees as it sees 37 bps of tightening by year-end. The data has been coming in better and better, suggesting that the New Zealand economy turned a corner. Governor Breman’s recent comments were neutral as she emphasised patience and full optionality. The currency rallied so much mainly because of the US dollar weakness and the tight correlation with the Australian dollar.NZDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the NZDUSD has been consolidating near the highs after the strong rally at the end of January. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.NZDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a key swing point around the 0.5995 level defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 0.5995 level to position for a rally into new cycle highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 0.5928 level next.NZDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current consolidation. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target the 0.5995 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSOn Wednesday we have the RBNZ policy decision and the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Q4 GDP, the US PCE price index for December, the US Flash PMIs and a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWCrude oil prices came under some pressure in the final part of last week as we got a couple of bearish catalysts. On the US-Iran negotiations front, there have been many mixed signals, but it looks like the Iranians are willing to compromise given the bleak consequences that a no-deal could have. In fact, the US is said to be prepared to sustain weeks-long operations against Iran if needed. Given the uncertainty, it shouldn’t be surprising to see a rangebound price action in the crude oil market. Tomorrow, we have the second round of talks in Geneva, so watch out for market-moving headlines.On the OPEC+ front, we got a report on Friday saying that some nations see scope to resume oil output hikes in April, although a decision hasn’t been made yet and talks will continue ahead of the March 1 meeting. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil is consolidating between the 66.43 and 62.35 levels as negotiations between US and Iran continue. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke below the upward trendline which could either signal a reversal or just a more complex pullback. For now, the price is consolidating at the 62.35 support as the buyers continue to step in to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to extend the drop into the 61.14 level next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action at the 62.35 support. We have a strong resistance zone around the 63.30 level where we can also find the confluence with the downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above the resistance to target a break below the 62.35 support, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 66.00 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Q4 GDP, the US PCE price index for December, the US Flash PMIs and a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Sometimes in life, we always go by the principle of using Occam's razor to work things out. It's not so much the best thing to abide by when trading, but one of the best principles I find in trading is to always keep things simple. That is also in part what Greg tends to preach in educating new traders, that is the KISS principle i.e. Keep It Simple to be Successful.After the sharp retracement at the end of January, silver has struggled so far for any recovery momentum in February. The precious metal is currently down nearly 10% on the month, with February itself being typically a bad seasonal month for the precious metal.And when you pair that up with the charts, things are starting to look dicey after last week's recovery bounce was dashed.After the sharp decline at the end of January, silver has been consolidating lower in the past two weeks. However, the worry now is that we might be starting to see a pattern of lower highs, lower lows start to be formed. And that is never a good signal for price momentum on any charts.It's still early and there is scope for things to change up in the week ahead. But if dip buyers can't shake off the bearish pattern, it could lead to more technical trouble for the precious metal in due time. That especially now that the volatility spikes are starting to settle down. The calmer environment will allow for traders to be more level-headed in making decisions, and that also means sticking to simpler fundamental and technical analysis in conducting trades.And so if the lower highs, lower lows pattern continues to unfold, it will keep dip buyers sidelined until a technical shift happens.The bigger picture chart shows the next key support level for silver might be pointing to more pain in the short-term. That as the 100-day moving average is only seen at around $65.35 currently. The extended drop on early 6 February came close to testing the key level before dip buyers stepped in to produce a stirring comeback.As such, silver bulls will have to try and get out of this rut quickly or else the simple argument for a further decline may start to take over in the second half of February trading. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny the market pricing. Given the negligible changes to the big picture after all the data, the US dollar remained mostly rangebound with mixed performance against the major currencies. The future outlook will still be guided by the evolution of the data. This week, all the important stuff will be released on Friday as we get the US Flash PMIs and the Q4 GDP. We might also get the US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs.GBP:On the GBP side, it’s going to be a big week for the pound as we get the most important economic releases. In fact, tomorrow we begin with the UK employment report, followed in the coming days by UK CPI, Flash PMIs, and retail sales data. Given the market pricing, higher than expected data will likely give the pound a boost, while soft figures could weigh on the currency.As a reminder, the BoE surprised with a dovish hold at the last meeting as 4 members dissented for a rate cut versus 2 expected. Moreover, they changed the guidance in the statement from "the bank rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path" to "the bank rate is likely to be reduced further". Inflation forecasts were also revised much lower across the board. Lastly, the Agents' Pay Survey showed wage growth to average 3.4% in 2026 vs 3.5% expected. Traders are now pricing a 65% chance of a rate cut at the next meeting already and a total of 48 bps of easing by year-end. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD couldn’t extend the drop into the major trendline and bounced near the 1.35 handle. We got stuck in a consolidation last week as the US data didn’t change anything in the bigger picture. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see a few important swing levels. The price bounced around the 1.3586 level which has been defining the rebound into the highs. A break above the 1.3732 level should open the door for a rally into the cycle highs and we can expect the buyers to pile in on the break. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in at the 1.3732 level with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the major trendline.GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. We now have the 1.3670 level that could act as resistance. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the rebound into the 1.3732 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we get the UK employment report. On Wednesday, we have the UK CPI and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the UK Retail Sales, the UK Flash PMIs, the US Q4 GDP, the US PCE price index for December, the US Flash PMIs and a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The currency pair had a bit of a mixed showing last week, with the early Monday move seeing price climb back above 1.1900 before stalling closer to 1.1920. After that, the hotter-than-expected US jobs report here sent the pair back down below the figure level. And since then, the pair has been meandering just under 1.1900 but with not enough momentum to break towards 1.1800.So, what's next for EUR/USD?The technical story shows that the pair is consolidating a little as we get into the new week. That as price action rests in between both the 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages. That suggests the near-term bias is more neutral for now. The latter is the bigger key technical level as it provides a floor for price action since last week already.The key level is seen at 1.1853 currently, keeping close to a large set of option expiries for the pair today. As such, that should reinforce a floor of sorts for price action in trading today. That considering a lack of major catalysts on the day and with it being a US holiday.As such, the next key move this week will have to come on a break on either side of the key near-term levels highlighted. Push back above the 100-hour moving average, and the near-term bias turns more bullish. Fall below the 200-hour moving average, and the near-term bias switches to being more bearish instead. The latter will open the door towards the 1.1800 mark next.In terms of fundamental factors, the euro side of the equation seems to be more limited. I'm saying that in the sense that everything that we know is already factored into the euro currency already.The ECB remains on the sidelines with markets not really expecting anything from euro area data in the short-term to change that outlook. Meanwhile, EUR/USD closer to the 1.20 level will keep ECB policymakers on guard and that will also see long positions be more wary.As such, it's more of the dollar side of the equation that will do the work in the week ahead. On the data docket, there is the FOMC meeting minutes, US Q4 GDP, PCE price data, and PMI data to work through. But besides that, there are also two other key risk events worth noting here.All the while as markets are continuing to size up the dollar and its vulnerabilities, amid a sluggish start to the new year in general. That especially since traders are sticking with the de-dollarisation narrative and currency debasement narrative for the most part.ING is of the view that while the pair may be "overvalued" by their estimates, a softer dollar will continue to keep it underpinned for the time being."The short-term fair value of EUR/USD has dropped to 1.165 after the latest hawkish repricing in the USD curve, meaning the overvaluation gap has now widened too. In line with our USD view, we are reluctant to see that gap being filled entirely, even if some downside risks for the pair remain." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Monday begins quietly, with U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day. In China, markets will also be affected by the Spring Festival holiday. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. In Canada, the focus will be on inflation data. Wednesday brings the RBNZ monetary policy announcement in New Zealand, while the U.K. will publish its latest inflation figures. On Thursday, Australia will release employment change and the unemployment rate, and the U.S. will report weekly unemployment claims. Friday will see the release of flash manufacturing and services PMIs for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. In addition, the U.K. will publish retail sales m/m, while the U.S. will release advance GDP q/q and the core PCE price index m/m. Throughout the week, several FOMC members are also expected to deliver remarks. In Canada, the consensus for CPI m/m is 0.1% versus -0.2% previously. Median CPI y/y is expected to remain unchanged at 2.5%, trimmed CPI y/y is seen easing from 2.7% to 2.6%, while common CPI y/y is projected to hold steady at 2.8%. RBC analysts suggest that a modest uptick in headline inflation is likely, driven largely by temporary tax effects rather than a renewed acceleration in underlying price pressures. The absence of last year’s GST/HST holiday is expected to distort annual comparisons, while food inflation remains elevated. Grocery prices also appear to have stayed firm while energy prices, by contrast, are expected to provide a significant drag, as gasoline prices have fallen below year-ago levels. Given that food and energy costs are heavily influenced by global factors, the Bank of Canada is likely to place greater emphasis on core inflation metrics. Measures such as median and trimmed CPI are expected to remain in the mid-2% range, easing gradually but still sitting above the Bank’s 2% target. At this week’s meeting, the RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.25%. This will be the first meeting under Governor Anna Breman. Markets anticipate an updated set of projections, with the first rate hike possibly projected for December. Domestic activity in New Zealand remains firm, and inflation is still running above the Bank’s target. However, policymakers are likely to emphasize the presence of remaining spare capacity, tighter financial conditions, and easing food and fuel inflation, all of which should help guide inflation back towards the 2% target, Westpac analysts said. While a stronger growth outlook could prompt an upward revision to the longer-run OCR projection, the Bank is unlikely to signal any urgency around further tightening. Overall, the messaging is expected to lean more dovish than hawkish, broadly aligning with current market pricing rather than pushing expectations materially higher. In the U.K., the consensus for CPI y/y is 3.0% vs. 3.4% previously, while core CPI y/y is expected to drop to 3.0% from 3.2%. Headline inflation is projected to decline, driven by softer food price pressures and the unwind of last year’s private school tax increase. However, core inflation is likely to prove more persistent, and this is the measure the BoE is monitoring most closely. According to ING analysts, a more significant drop in inflation is expected in April, with headline CPI potentially falling to around 1.8%. Some softness is expected on the jobs front and the annual wage growth is also likely to moderate. If this turns out to be the case for February data as well, the BoE might deliver an additional rate cut next month. Average earnings index 3m/y is expected to drop from 4.7% to 4.6% and the unemployment rate is likely to print unchanged at 5.1%. In Australia, the consensus for employment change is 20.1K versus 65.2K previously, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. Employment growth appears to be near its low point, as the drag from the unwind in the care-related sector fades and private-sector hiring begins to recover. However, renewed inflation pressures and a shift in market interest rate expectations suggest that the employment recovery this year could be more subdued. Westpac analysts expect a stronger gain of around 40K in the January report. They also note that labour demand appeared to stabilise toward the end of last year, while a gradual easing in labour supply helped keep the unemployment rate broadly unchanged. Recent data do not yet point to a renewed tightening in labour market conditions. Instead, they suggest a reasonably solid year-end backdrop, albeit distorted by seasonal volatility for January. Some of the late-year resilience may have reflected expectations of additional policy support in 2026, an assumption that has since shifted. In the U.S., the consensus for the core PCE price index m/m is 0.3% versus 0.2% previously. Personal income is expected to rise 0.3% m/m compared to 0.3% prior, while personal spending is forecast at 0.4% versus 0.5%. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, will be closely watched. A 0.3% increase would reinforce the case for policy patience rather than aggressive easing. U.S. consumer fundamentals remain relatively firm heading into 2026, with household spending continuing to expand at a steady pace. Nominal consumption growth is expected to remain modest at year-end, leaving real spending flat.The softer December retail sales likely reflect timing effects rather than a genuine weakening in demand. As such, recent data do little to challenge the broader constructive outlook for consumers, Wells Fargo analysts said. Income growth remains a key constraint, as slower gains may require households to dip further into savings. Even so, the near-term consumption outlook is supported by easing inflation, tax relief, and more stable employment conditions, which should help sustain moderate real spending growth into 2026. In the U.S., the consensus for advance GDP q/q is 2.8% compared to 4.4% previously. Economic momentum likely eased toward the end of the year, though the underlying backdrop remains resilient. Fourth-quarter growth is estimated to have moderated, partly reflecting the drag from the federal government shutdown, which temporarily weighed on headline activity. Excluding these effects, demand fundamentals appear to have held up reasonably well, with consumer spending remaining supportive and business investment posting modest gains, particularly in technology-related sectors. Trade flows and inventories continue to add volatility to the data. Tariff-related uncertainty and unusual movements in gold trade have complicated the interpretation of external balances, while inventory dynamics remain difficult to assess in real time, Wells Fargo analysts said. Looking through these distortions, the economy appears to have ended 2025 on solid footing, expanding at a healthy 2.2% pace over the year. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny the market pricing. Given the negligible changes to the big picture after all the data, the US dollar remained mostly rangebound with mixed performance against the major currencies. The future outlook will still be guided by the evolution of the data. This week, all the important stuff will be released on Friday as we get the US Flash PMIs and the Q4 GDP. We might also get the US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs. JPY:On the JPY side, we’ve seen a big “sell the fact” trade following the widely expected Takaichi’s victory in the lower house elections, but other than that, nothing has changed. In fact, the data hasn’t been supporting urgent rate hikes, and we haven’t got anything new from the central bank either. As a reminder, the BoJ held interest rates steady as expected at the last policy meeting and upgraded slightly growth and inflation forecasts due to the expansionary fiscal policies. Governor Ueda didn’t offer anything new in terms of forward guidance as he just repeated that they will keep raising rates if the economic outlook is realised. He also added that April price behaviour will be a factor to mull over a rate hike. This suggests that April is when they expect to deliver another rate hike if the data supports such a move. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY is consolidating at the major trendline. The buyers continue to step in there with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally back into the 159.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to open the door for a drop into the 150.00 handle next.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action near the trendline. There’s not much else we can add here, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see two key swing levels defining the downtrend. The first one around the 153.70 level defines the consolidation. A break above it should see the buyers increasing the bullish bets into the next swing level at 154.65. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the 153.70 resistance with a defined risk above it to keep targeting a break below the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSOn Wednesday we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI, the US Q4 GDP, the US PCE price index for December, the US Flash PMIs and a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Well, that seems to have been quite a short meeting. For some context, they were scheduled to meet at 0800 GMT (5pm Tokyo time) and it's over and done with in less than 20 minutes. This is their first meeting since the snap election results, which resulted in a landslide victory for Takaichi and her ruling LDP party.Ueda goes on to say that he won't comment on the details of his talks with Takaichi. Adding that she made no specific policy request to him and the central bank.The Japanese yen currency isn't as pressured this time around as compared to their previous meeting in November. That especially since intervention risks are helping to keep traders in check since the end of January already.If anything, I guess Takaichi might want to at least mention that in not wanting the BOJ to hike rates further; that is if policymakers at the central bank feel that they need to step in to prevent the yen currency from freefalling.Considering the short meeting, I'm not sure if they would even go into much details about the upcoming spring wage negotiations and how that will impact the next steps at the BOJ. So, that will remain to be seen I guess.In any case, Takaichi will have her chance to influence proceedings at the BOJ soon enough. That as the government has the opportunity to submit their choice of nominees in replacing two BOJ board members soon enough. More background on that can be found here: Japan to submit BOJ board nominee to parliament as early as this month - report This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This follows from the 1.2% growth in 2024 and the 1.3% growth posted in 2023. In terms of GDP per capita, the Swiss economy grew by 0.5% in 2025. And just for a bit more of a benchmark, the GDP per capita has expanded by 4.8% since 2019.Looking at the details, the industrial sector was the main drag as it contributed negatively to GDP growth once again. This makes it the third straight year running that it has contracted. While the pharmaceutical industry grew, it could not fully offset declines in other industrial areas.On industry weakness, the report by SECO highlights that European demand was extremely soft year. In particular, exports to Germany fell off significantly and the sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc is not helping in that regard. The currency strength is creating a "braking effect" on international competitiveness.Meanwhile, the boost in Swiss GDP mainly stems from its services sector - which grew strongly last year, in particular finance and trade. That largely came about in the first half of the year, helping to counterbalance the ongoing weaknesses in the industrial sector. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.