In wrapping up the 2025 year, foreign holdings of US Treasuries dropped slightly in December to $9.27 trillion. That compares with the peak seen in November at $9.36 trillion. The $88.4 billion drop might not seem much but it still represents the largest monthly decline since late 2022. But after hitting a record high in November, I think we can give that a pass.That especially if we put things more into context. The 2025 year-end figure still marks a massive year for US debt demand, with it being well above the $8.5 trillion at the end of 2024.So, what can we make of the trend and the data from the report yesterday?There are just a couple of things that stand out from the chart above.The first of course being the glaring and continued decline in China's holdings of US Treasuries. The figure dropped to $683.5 billion by the end of 2025, which is the lowest since 2008. The total reduction in China's holdings for the whole of last year was over $200 billion. So, it keeps up with the trend we're seeing since the peak in 2013.That being said, the important detail when looking into this report is to not take the numbers at face value. It is best to remember that the numbers here are only a measure of each country's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The thing about this is that some countries might still buying Treasures via non-US custodians. As such, China likely falls under this category.And these numbers tend to show up in the likes of Belgium and Luxembourg. That is not to say all of it are tied to proxy buying though. Both Belgium and Luxembourg also double as agents to facilitate demand for private financial institutions in Europe especially.As for the UK, it is more so a case of London acting as a global clearinghouse for private international investors. That especially after the Covid pandemic.In essence, the narrative there also highlights the continued shift in trend in terms of structural holdings of Treasuries and US debt.It is no longer central banks being the big players but instead private investors i.e. hedge funds, pension funds, asset managers who are now the dominant buyers. And they have been for quite a while now.As mentioned yesterday, this just means that US funding is now becoming more increasingly dependent on market-based capital and not so much so on reserve recycling. To put things more simply, it's more about yield and financial demand rather than being a case of a geopolitical feature.And for all the negativity surrounding the dollar and US assets since last year, foreign demand for Treasuries remain strong. The total holdings by foreign investors last year even showed a staggering increase of $770 billion over the course of 2025.That's good news for the US administration as they continue to balance on a very fine tightrope on the fiscal side of things. But even as foreign demand is holding up just enough to keep the engine running, the fiscal cost continues to put a stranglehold on the government.And now with the "financialisation" shift in who is demanding Treasuries, that creates a bigger risk especially since private investors are more price/yields sensitive. That in turn also creates the risk for more potential yield spikes on any major developments. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

RBNZ increases policy meeting frequency to eight per year as CPI moves monthly.Summary:RBNZ will increase scheduled policy decisions from 7 to 8 per year starting in 2027Change aligns with move to monthly CPI data from next yearFebruary 2027 decision date brought forward by one weekCommittee retains ability to act between meetings if requiredFinancial Stability Reports remain twice yearly in May and NovemberThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will move to eight scheduled monetary policy decisions per year from 2027, increasing from the current seven-meeting format. The shift comes as New Zealand prepares to transition to monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases from next year, significantly increasing the flow of inflation data available to policymakers.The Monetary Policy Committee said the higher frequency of inflation data warrants a corresponding increase in scheduled decision points. With CPI moving from a quarterly to a monthly release schedule, policymakers will have more timely and granular insights into price pressures, allowing for more responsive calibration of interest rate settings.Under the new structure, one additional scheduled decision will be added to the annual calendar. To accommodate the eight-meeting schedule, the previously announced February 2027 decision date has been moved one week earlier. The RBNZ has already published decision dates through February 2028 to provide forward clarity for markets.Importantly, the Committee reiterated that scheduled meetings are not the only opportunities for action. The RBNZ retains the authority to make unscheduled policy decisions at any time should economic or financial conditions warrant it, something it has done in the past during periods of market stress or acute economic disruption.The shift does not alter the frequency of the Bank’s Financial Stability Reports, which will continue to be released twice a year, in May and November.While operational in nature, the decision signals an institutional adjustment to a more data-intensive environment. With inflation data becoming available monthly, the RBNZ is positioning itself to respond more dynamically to evolving price and demand conditions — a structure more in line with other major central banks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Posting this ICYMI from a Wednesday note from Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley says Nvidia is the most under-owned megacap as institutions lag tech benchmarks.Summary:Morgan Stanley says mega-cap tech is the most under-owned in 17 yearsNvidia is the most under-owned large-cap tech stockInstitutional ownership lags S&P 500 weightings across major megacapsInvestors show bias toward AI “picks and shovels” hardware namesSNDK stands out as the most over-owned large-cap tech stockMorgan Stanley’s latest analysis of fourth-quarter 13F filings highlights a striking positioning gap in US equities: mega-cap technology stocks are the most under-owned relative to the S&P 500 in 17 years.According to the bank, the ownership gap versus the benchmark widened to negative 155 basis points by the end of the quarter, underscoring how active institutional managers remain structurally underweight some of the largest names in the index despite their dominant market capitalisations.Among individual stocks, Nvidia stands out as the most under-owned large-cap technology name. Analyst Erik Woodring calculates a negative 2.57 percentage point gap between Nvidia’s S&P 500 weighting and active institutional ownership. Apple and Microsoft follow closely behind with gaps of negative 2.16% and negative 2.13%, respectively, while Amazon shows a negative 1.37% gap.The data suggest that even after a prolonged AI-driven rally, active managers have not fully caught up to benchmark allocations in these mega-cap leaders. Woodring notes that the modest widening in under-ownership from the prior quarter implies investors continue to lag index weightings rather than aggressively rotate back into the largest constituents.However, the positioning story is not uniform across the technology sector. Morgan Stanley sees a clear institutional bias toward AI “picks and shovels” names entering 2026. Semiconductor and hardware stocks such as SNDK, KLAC, WDC, LRCX and STX show elevated ownership levels, reflecting investor preference for infrastructure beneficiaries of AI spending. By contrast, institutional positioning in software names including IBM, ORCL, PANW, NOW and ADBE remains notably light.One standout is SNDK, whose institutional ownership has steadily increased since its re-listing in the first quarter of 2025. After joining the S&P 500 last quarter, it now shows the largest positive ownership gap among large-cap tech stocks at +1.58%.Overall, the note suggests active managers remain selective within technology, favouring hardware leverage to AI over broad megacap exposure — even as index concentration continues to climb. ---Persistent under-ownership in megacaps could fuel catch-up buying if performance continues. Conversely, crowded positioning in AI hardware names raises the risk of sharper pullbacks if sentiment shifts. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Korean stocks hit a record high on tech strength, with a Kosdaq sidecar briefly triggered.Summary:KOSPI surged 2.46% to a record 5,642, breaking above 5,600 for the first timeTech stocks led gains, with Samsung Electronics up 4.0%Kosdaq programme trading was briefly halted after sidecar activationForeign investors were net sellers despite the rallyWon weakened while benchmark bond yields fellSouth Korean shares rallied to a fresh record high on Thursday, with the benchmark KOSPI rising 2.46% to 5,642.37, surpassing the 5,600 mark for the first time. The advance came as markets reopened following a three-day holiday break, with investor sentiment lifted by a strong rebound in US technology stocks overnight.Heavyweight semiconductor names drove the gains. Samsung Electronics jumped 4.03%, while SK Hynix added 1.48%, reflecting renewed optimism in the global chip cycle. Battery maker LG Energy Solution rose 1.77%, while industrial and auto names also participated in the rally. Hyundai Motor gained 0.40% and Kia climbed 2.32%, while POSCO Holdings advanced nearly 4%. Market breadth was positive, with 583 of 927 traded issues rising.The rally was strong enough to trigger a volatility control mechanism in the junior Kosdaq market. Programme trading was halted for five minutes after the Kosdaq 150 futures contract surged 6%, activating the Korea Exchange’s “sidecar” rule.Sidebar: What is the Korea sidecar rule? The sidecar is a temporary volatility control mechanism designed to curb excessive swings in derivatives-linked markets. It is triggered when Kospi 200 or Kosdaq 150 futures move sharply, typically by 5–6%, within a short period. When activated, programme trading (computer-driven arbitrage linked to futures) is suspended for five minutes. The rule does not halt all trading, but it slows algorithmic flows that can amplify momentum, helping stabilise the market during rapid moves.Despite the equity surge, foreign investors were net sellers, offloading shares worth 485.6 billion won. The Korean won weakened against the US dollar, while bond markets firmed. Three-year treasury futures rose and benchmark yields fell, with the 10-year yield down nearly 4 basis points.The KOSPI is now up nearly 34% year-to-date, highlighting strong momentum in Korean equities even as currency weakness persists. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

CBS says the US military is ready for possible Iran strikes as soon as Saturday, but Trump has not decided.Summary:CBS reports senior officials say the US military is ready for potential Iran strikes as soon as Saturday Trump has not made a final decision; discussions are described as fluid and ongoing Pentagon is moving some personnel out of the Middle East over the next three days as a precaution CBS says the shift is standard practice and does not necessarily mean an attack is imminent Rubio is expected to meet Netanyahu on Feb. 28, per officials (AP), amid ongoing Iran deliberationsA potential US military strike on Iran could come as soon as Saturday, according to CBS News, which cited sources familiar with internal discussions saying senior national security officials have told President Donald Trump the military is ready to act. The report stresses that Trump has not yet made a final decision, and that deliberations inside the White House remain fluid as officials weigh escalation risks against the political and military costs of restraint. As part of preparations, CBS says the Pentagon is moving some personnel temporarily out of the Middle East region over the next three days, primarily to Europe or back to the United States, positioning the move as a precaution in the event of action or potential Iranian counterattacks if the US proceeds. One source told CBS that such shifts are standard practice ahead of potential military activity and do not necessarily indicate an attack is imminent. A Pentagon spokesperson, contacted by CBS, said there was no information to provide. CBS also reports that the White House continues to publicly foreground diplomacy even as military planning advances. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said there are “many reasons and arguments” for a strike but described diplomacy as the president’s first option, while declining to discuss whether any operation would be coordinated with Israel. On the regional posture, CBS says US force deployments are expected to be in place by mid-March, with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group already in the region and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group en route. The report also notes Iran and the US held mediated talks in Geneva on Iran’s nuclear program, with the administration indicating progress but saying major gaps remain and no follow-up date has been set. Separately, AP reports Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Feb. 28 to brief him on US-Iran talks, as Washington weighs next steps and continues to surge military resources to the region. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s machinery orders rebound sharply, reinforcing capex strength despite fiscal caution.Summary:Core machinery orders surged 19.1% m/m in December vs 4.5% expectedAnnual growth jumped to 16.8% y/y vs 3.9% forecastRebound follows sharp November declinesData support the BOJ’s outlook for continued economic expansionCorporate survey (report earlier) shows ongoing fiscal caution despite strong capex signalJapan’s core machinery orders delivered a powerful upside surprise in December, underscoring renewed momentum in business investment and offering support to the Bank of Japan’s constructive growth outlook.Core machinery orders, a volatile but closely watched leading indicator of capital expenditure, surged 19.1% month-on-month, far exceeding expectations for a 4.5% rise. On an annual basis, orders climbed 16.8%, again well above forecasts for a 3.9% increase. The strength marks a sharp reversal from November, when orders had slumped 11% on the month and fallen 6.4% year-on-year.The scale of the rebound suggests November’s weakness was more a reflection of volatility than a meaningful deterioration in investment appetite. Machinery orders are often lumpy, but the magnitude of December’s rise points to solid underlying corporate demand. The data bode well for production and output in the months ahead, reinforcing expectations that Japan’s economy will continue expanding in line with the BOJ’s projections.The strong capex signal also comes against a backdrop of equity market strength. Japanese stocks have been rallying amid expectations of expansionary fiscal policies under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, while government bond yields have edged higher on speculation of increased debt issuance.However, the upbeat machinery data contrast with a more cautious tone in broader corporate sentiment. A recent Reuters survey showed two-thirds of Japanese firms remain concerned about fiscal discipline under the current administration. While worries about tensions with China have eased compared with the previous month’s poll, they remain a lingering source of uncertainty for some companies.Overall, December’s machinery orders point to resilient business investment momentum, even as fiscal and geopolitical concerns continue to shape the broader corporate outlook. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

RBNZ sees the cutting cycle as done, but weak consumption and sticky inflation keep risks two-sided.Summary:RBNZ’s Silk says the central scenario is the easing cycle is over, with risks both waysDownside risk: weak consumption and a softer household recoveryUpside risk: sticky inflation, meaning tightening remains possible if pressures persistRBNZ says policy needs to stay accommodative for some time to support recovery Even with a small hike, Silk notes rates would only be near the lower end of neutralNew Zealand’s central bank is framing policy as “cuts are done, but the outlook is two-sided,” after holding the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% and signalling that settings will remain accommodative for some time as the economy recovers. In comments following the decision, RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk said the central scenario is that the easing cycle is over, but stressed risks sit on either side of that baseline. The downside risk is that consumption remains weak and the household recovery fails to build momentum, which would argue for keeping policy supportive for longer. The upside risk is that inflation proves sticky, requiring the Bank to lean against price pressures sooner than markets might expect.Silk’s framing reinforces the message embedded in the RBNZ decision: the policy stance is still accommodative, and officials see value in keeping the OCR track “where it is” to ensure the economy continues closing the output gap. That language is designed to avoid a premature tightening in financial conditions while the recovery remains uneven. At the same time, the Bank is explicitly reminding markets that “accommodative” does not mean “cut-biased.” Reuters reporting around the meeting notes the RBNZ’s projection track implies some possibility of a hike by year-end, even as the Governor emphasised the Bank is not planning to raise rates until it sees stronger inflationary pressure alongside a firmer economy. Silk’s point that even a small hike would only take rates toward the bottom end of neutral is important context: it suggests the Bank views any future tightening, if needed, as incremental and aimed at preventing inflation persistence rather than choking off growth.She also flagged that planned monthly CPI figures next year should complement the existing data set but could be volatile — a reminder that high-frequency inflation reads may introduce more noise around the “sticky vs fading” inflation debate. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes quietly remove December’s “2% in 2028” timing, underscoring uncertainty.Summary:January minutes drop the explicit “2% by 2028” timing that appeared in DecemberStaff now say inflation is “slightly higher, on balance” than the December forecast Tariff effects are expected to wane around mid-year, with inflation then returning to a “previous disinflationary trend” December minutes explicitly said inflation would “reach 2 percent in 2028” The omission is a subtle signal of greater uncertainty (or less confidence) around the timing of the final glidepath to 2%One of the more revealing lines in the Fed’s January meeting minutes is not a line at all — it’s an omission. The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos noticed the omission:In the December minutes, the staff forecast narrative was unusually specific about the long-run glidepath for inflation. Staff said tariff increases were expected to keep upward pressure on inflation through 2025 and 2026, before inflation returned to its prior disinflationary trend and “reach 2 percent in 2028.” That explicit date mattered: it anchored the staff’s baseline that the “last mile” back to 2% would be slow, but still achievable on a definable horizon.In the January minutes, the staff’s inflation story shifts subtly. Staff now describe the inflation forecast as “slightly higher, on balance” than the one prepared for December, reflecting tighter resource utilisation and a higher projected path for core import prices. They again lean on tariffs as a key near-term driver, noting that as the effects of higher tariffs are expected to wane starting around the middle of the year, inflation is projected to return to its “previous disinflationary trend.” But the December clause , the explicit endpoint of reaching 2% in 2028, does not appear.Why does that matter? Minutes are carefully edited documents, and the staff forecast paragraph is typically one of the more consistent sections across meetings. When a specific date drops out, it can be read as the Fed becoming less willing to pin the outlook to a calendar, especially at a time when uncertainty is described as “elevated” and risks to inflation are still seen as skewed to the upside. This does not necessarily mean the staff have abandoned the 2% objective or even that the endpoint has shifted again. But it does suggest a preference to emphasise direction (“back to disinflation”) over deadline (“2% by X”). For markets, that kind of nuance can feed the idea that the Fed is increasingly cautious about declaring victory on the inflation path, and wary of being boxed in by its own timetable if the next phase of disinflation proves “slower and more uneven.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A steady 4.1% jobless rate and another fall in total unemployment should keep rate hike risk priced, supporting AUD and holding front-end yields firm. It doesn’t force a March move, but it keeps the RBA’s finger on the trigger.Summary:Employment rose 17.8k in January, broadly in line with expectationsFull-time jobs surged 50.5k, offset by a 32.7k fall in part-time rolesUnemployment rate steady at 4.1%, below RBA February forecastsHours worked climbed 0.6% m/m, signalling firm labour demandData do not lock in a March hike but tilt risks further toward tighteningAustralia’s January labour force data delivered a broadly “as expected” headline but a firmer underlying message, keeping the Reserve Bank of Australia’s tightening bias alive.Total employment rose by 17,800 in January, close to consensus forecasts near 20,000, and a clear step down from December’s outsized 65,200 gain. The more important detail was the composition: full-time employment surged 50,500, partly offset by a 32,700 decline in part-time roles. The skew toward full-time jobs points to resilient labour demand rather than an abrupt cooling.The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, beating expectations for a slight lift to 4.2%. Participation was unchanged at 66.7%, marginally below consensus but stable enough to suggest labour supply is no longer adding upward pressure to unemployment. Adding to the “tight market” signal, hours worked rose 0.6% over the month — a solid increase that indicates employers are still utilising labour intensively.A notable takeaway was the continued decline in the total stock of unemployed persons, which fell for a fourth consecutive month in January. The last time unemployment fell four months in a row was in the four months immediately before the RBA began its rate hiking cycle in May 2022. While the labour force survey is notoriously volatile, the persistence of this trend supports the argument that labour market slack is not building in a meaningful way.For the RBA, the report does not lock in a March rate hike by itself, but it moves policymakers closer. The unemployment rate remains well below the RBA’s February Statement on Monetary Policy track, and there is nothing in the release to challenge the Bank’s assessment that labour market conditions are still relatively tight. If inflation pressures remain uncomfortable, these labour numbers leave the door wide open to further tightening. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I posted a preview of the jobs data here:Australia’s January labour force data due today - previewPosting the data now, and I'll have more to come on separately, analysis and implications etc.Added - Here is more: Australia unemployment total falls for fourth straight month. RBA March rate hike prospectWow ... this will ignite further chatter of a March rate hike by the RBA. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The FOMC minutes stated that Jerome Powell was selected to serve as Chair for 2026, with the appointment lasting until a successor is formally chosen.In practical terms, that means Powell would continue to preside over the FOMC, including at meetings later than May, provided he remains a Federal Reserve Governor and the incoming Chair (Kevin Warsh) has not yet been confirmed and installed.The language in the minutes serves as a reminder of the Committee’s standard governance framework: the sitting Chair remains in place by default until a confirmed successor officially assumes the role.Summary:FOMC minutes reaffirm Powell as chair “until a successor is selected,” a key governance default. Warsh’s confirmation timeline is at risk of slipping, creating a longer “interim chair” window. Sen. Thom Tillis is threatening to block Fed nominees until the DOJ probe into Powell is resolved. Democrats are also pressing to delay proceedings, arguing investigations undermine confidence in the process. Bottom line: Powell remains FOMC chair by default until a successor is confirmed and formally in place.FOMC minutes underscore a core governance reality that can get lost in the politics of Fed succession: the sitting chair remains chair until the successor is formally selected and installed. The minutes’ officer-election language is effectively a “default setting,” designed to prevent a vacuum if confirmation timing slips.Why does that matter now? Because the next-chair process looks unusually messy. President Trump has said Kevin Warsh is his pick to succeed Jerome Powell when Powell’s chair term ends in mid-May. But Warsh may not be confirmed in time, not necessarily because the Banking Committee chair is blocking him, but because a key Republican vote may be unavailable.Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (North Carolina), who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, has publicly tied his support for any Federal Reserve nominees to the outcome of a Justice Department investigation involving Powell. Tillis has framed the probe as an attack on Fed independence and has said he won’t allow nominees to advance until the matter is resolved. That matters because committee math is tight. If Democrats line up against Warsh in committee, a single Republican defection can prevent the nomination from being voted out to the full Senate. Reporting has explicitly highlighted Tillis’s hold as an early hurdle for Warsh’s timeline. Complicating things further, Senate Banking Committee Democrats have also pushed for nomination proceedings to be delayed until what they describe as “pretextual” investigations involving Fed officials are closed, arguing the optics risk undermining confidence in the Fed’s independence. There have been signs of a possible procedural workaround, including the idea of proceeding with hearings even if a committee vote is held up, but the core point remains: if the nomination is delayed in committee or the White House nomination paperwork arrives late, the transition window stretches. That’s where the minutes’ governance reminder becomes market-relevant. In a prolonged transition, Powell remains the de facto FOMC chair “until he’s not,” and uncertainty shifts from who is chair today to how politicised and protracted the handover becomes, especially with Fed-independence narratives already live. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese firms remain wary of fiscal discipline under Takaichi, even as concerns over China tensions ease.Summary:Two-thirds of Japanese firms express concern about PM Takaichi’s fiscal disciplineMarkets rattled by proposed temporary food tax suspensionIMF urges fiscal restraint to maintain bond market stabilityFewer firms now fear business fallout from China tensionsWeaker yen and higher borrowing costs seen as main risksEarlier re weak yen: JP Morgan raise their forecasts for AUD, NZD and for USD/JPY (EUR/USD unchanged)Two-thirds of Japanese companies are concerned about the government’s fiscal discipline under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, according to a Reuters corporate survey, underscoring lingering unease in the business community despite recent efforts to calm bond markets. The concern follows Takaichi’s proposal to temporarily suspend the 8% sales tax on food for two years and increase investment spending to support growth. The announcement, made ahead of last month’s snap general election, unsettled investors and drove long-dated Japanese government bond yields to record highs as markets questioned how the measures would be financed. Although Takaichi subsequently pledged to pursue “responsible” stimulus and avoid issuing new debt to fund the tax cut, corporate scepticism appears to persist.Survey results show 11% of firms are “greatly concerned” about fiscal discipline, while 55% are “somewhat concerned.” Only 30% report limited worry. Among those uneasy about fiscal policy, 64% cite the risk of a weaker yen raising raw material import costs, while 55% are concerned about higher borrowing costs. Businesses indicated they may reassess capital expenditure plans, adjust funding strategies or curb wage growth if fiscal-related risks materialise.Japan already carries the highest public debt burden among developed economies, a structural vulnerability that heightens sensitivity to any perception of fiscal loosening. The International Monetary Fund has also cautioned that while limiting tax cuts to essential goods and ensuring they are temporary could help contain costs, broader fiscal restraint remains important to anchor bond market stability.Separately, the survey suggests concerns about diplomatic tensions with China have moderated. Around 18% of firms now expect strained relations to affect business, down from 35% in January. The share anticipating little impact rose to 73%. While some companies continue to view China as a critical market, others report efforts to diversify supply chains and reduce exposure amid recurring tensions.Overall, the results highlight a corporate sector navigating fiscal uncertainty at home while cautiously recalibrating geopolitical risk abroad. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:JPMorgan says renewed FX hedging by foreign investors could add fresh pressure on the US dollarStronger non-US currencies are increasing incentives to hedge US equity exposureFed rate hikes are seen as off the table, reducing yield support for the dollarAUD and NZD forecasts upgraded; upside risks flagged for EURBank remains bearish on JPY, sees USD/JPY at 164 by Q4Bloomberg carried the piece, in brief:JPMorgan strategists say a fresh wave of foreign-exchange hedging could add another layer of pressure to the US dollar, as overseas investors seek protection against further currency weakness on their US asset holdings.According to the bank, global investors, many of whom hold sizeable allocations to US equities, are increasingly exposed to currencies that have strengthened sharply against the greenback. As those currencies push toward multi-year highs, the incentive to hedge dollar exposure rises. That process typically involves selling dollars forward, creating additional headwinds for the currency.The strategists argue that the reactivation of FX hedging flows is a key reason to remain bearish on the dollar. They note that demand for downside dollar protection has been building since the Trump administration unveiled aggressive trade measures in April, a development that contributed to one of the dollar’s weakest annual performances in nearly a decade during 2025. While the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index later stabilised and traded in a relatively narrow range in the second half of the year, renewed currency strength elsewhere is now reviving hedging dynamics.Beyond hedging flows, JPMorgan cites a broader macro backdrop that is no longer supportive for the dollar. Federal Reserve rate hikes are seen as firmly off the table for now, narrowing yield support, while portfolio flows continue to rotate away from US equities. The bank observes that the recent dollar decline has accelerated more quickly than expected, with several downside targets reached ahead of schedule.In terms of currency preferences, the strategists see further gains for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. They have raised their Australian dollar forecast to $0.73 in the second quarter of 2026, from $0.68 previously, pointing to the prospect of additional Reserve Bank of Australia tightening. The New Zealand dollar forecast was also upgraded to $0.63 from $0.59. Upside risks to the euro are acknowledged, with a $1.20 projection maintained.By contrast, JPMorgan remains bearish on the Japanese yen, citing an unfavourable domestic policy mix and an unsupportive global monetary backdrop. The bank expects the yen to weaken toward 164 per dollar by the fourth quarter, despite ongoing speculation about possible intervention. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Aussie jobs data (preview here) is the focus of the data calendar here today. Note that while Singapore is back from holiday today mainland China and Hong Kong are still out. Liquididity in markets will be somewhat thinner than usual. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is a day later than normal this week due to the US holiday on Monday. ---This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).It's a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agenciesWhereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week's levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API---Wednesday was a volatile day for oil. Crude posted firm gains as geopolitical risk premia returned to the market, driven primarily by a sharp escalation in rhetoric surrounding US–Iran tensions. The key catalyst emerged during the European morning session, when Axios reported, citing unidentified sources, that the Trump administration may be closer to a major military confrontation with Iran than is widely understood. The report added that any potential operation would likely be extensive in scale. That headline prompted an immediate spike in energy, sending both WTI and Brent crude to fresh intraday highs. Prices subsequently held their gains and continued to grind higher into the US afternoon, reflecting sustained risk-sensitive buying rather than a brief knee-jerk reaction. Market participants are now watching closely for any formal response from Tehran or additional messaging from Washington, as further escalation could inject additional volatility into the energy space. Meanwhile, developments from the US–Russia–Ukraine trilateral talks in Geneva were limited. The discussions formally concluded with little in the way of concrete breakthroughs. Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that peace negotiations would continue, while the White House characterised the talks as having made meaningful progress. In contrast, the Kremlin described the negotiations as difficult, underscoring the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the diplomatic track. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

S&P and Dow industrial average closehigher for the 3rd consecutive dayRBNZ Governor Breman: Not at all comfortable with having inflation at 3.1%FOMC Minutes: Almost all Fed officials favored holding rates steadyFed's Bowman still concerned about labor market, says recent jobs report 'a bit strange'Bitcoin Technicals:The price of bitcoin is consolidating in a narrow range w/a lower bias.NY Fed in the White House crosshairs, also says inflation is acceleratingAtlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow 3.6% vs 3.7% priorUSDCHF Technicals: The USDCHF is showing modest bullish buying. Awaits the shove.The drums of war are sounding for oil and gold todayUS January industrial production +0.7 vs +0.4% expectedTakaichi: Looking carefully at day-to-day market movesUS December durable goods orders -1.4% vs -2.0% expectedUS housing starts for December 1.404M vs 1.309M estimateinvestingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steadies, oil jumps on US-Iran tensionsA war between US and Iran would have disastrous effects on the market and the economyThe USD moved broadly higher, supported by rising Treasury yields and a run of better-than-expected US data. December durable goods orders fell -1.4%, but that was better than the -2.0% expected. Core measures were stronger: ex-transportation rose 0.9% (vs 0.3% exp) and nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft increased 0.6% (vs 0.4% exp). The positive surprises extended beyond that report. Housing starts and building permits improved, while industrial production rose 0.7% (vs 0.4% exp) and manufacturing output climbed 0.6% (vs 0.4% exp) — completing a solid round of upside economic surprises.Treasury yields responded accordingly. The 2-year rose 2.7 bps to 3.4637%, the 5-year gained 3.1 bps to 3.6522%, the 10-year climbed 3.3 bps to 4.0865%, and the 30-year advanced 2.9 bps to 4.711%. A soft $60 billion 20-year Treasury auction added to the upward pressure in yields. The sale tailed by 2.0 bps, well above the six-month average tail of -0.4 bps, and the bid-to-cover ratio signaled lackluster demand. The combination of stronger data and weaker auction demand reinforced the move higher in rates and helped underpin the dollar.The January FOMC minutes reinforced the “higher for longer” theme. While two officials dissented in favor of a 25 bp cut, nearly all participants supported holding rates at 3.5%–3.75%. Several members were open to “two-sided” guidance, explicitly acknowledging that policy could move in either direction — including hikes if inflation progress stalls. The staff outlook was revised stronger relative to December, with GDP projected to outpace potential growth through 2028, while inflation forecasts were nudged slightly higher. Officials warned that progress toward 2% inflation could be “slower and more uneven,” and some cautioned against cutting too soon for fear of undermining credibility.Policy tone: Hawkish. Despite two dissents for easing, the overall message leaned cautious and inflation-focused, with little urgency to cut.Adding to the inflation narrative, crude oil jumped $2.90 (+4.66%) to $65.22, marking the largest Monday gain since June 17 and one of the biggest daily advances since October 2023. The move followed reports of escalating geopolitical risks involving Iran, further supporting yields and the USD.In FX, clarification that recent USDJPY rate-check activity was conducted on behalf of the US Treasury — not the NY Fed — tempered intervention speculation. Among majors, the NZDUSD was the weakest performer, sliding 1.36% to 0.5963 after dovish RBNZ messaging. The central bank held the OCR at 2.25% and signaled policy would remain accommodative, with Governor Beman expressing no urgency to hike. The move marked the pair’s largest one-day decline since April 2025.In the UK, CPI was mixed — headline met expectations but core and services ran hotter. GBPUSD fell 0.53%, pressured by broad USD strength. EURUSD declined 0.60%, while USDJPY rose 1.0%. US equities ended higher but near the midpoint of their intraday ranges, as stronger growth data competed with higher yields and geopolitical uncertainty.The major indices closed higher with the Nasdaq up for the 2nd consecutive day. The Dow and the S&P rose for the 3rd day in a row:Dow industrial average rose 0.28% S&P index rose 0.56% NASDAQ index rose 0.70%Bitcoin is down $1100 or more 0.69% at $66,326. Gold rebounded by him hundred and $4 or 2.3% at $4982.79, and silver rose $3.79 or 5.17% at $77.29.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Dow and S&P rose for the 3rd straight session while of the NASDAQ index increase for the 2nd in a row. Although higher, the major indices are closing near the middle of the data trading range. Yields moving higher and they slightly more hawkish Fed led to a rotation off of the highs for the day. At the bell, the major indices that showed:Dow industrial average rose 129.47 points or 0.26% at 49,662.66.S&P index rose 38.09 points or 0.56% at 6881.31. NASDAQ index rose 175.25 points or 0.78% at 22753.63. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 12.02 points or 0.45% at 2658.60.Looking at the S&P components, Energy led the way with a gain of 2.0%. Energy – +2.00%Consumer Discretionary – +1.00%Information Technology – +0.97%Financials – +0.78%Materials – +0.77%Communication Services – +0.31%Health Care – +0.21%Industrials – +0.01%Consumer Staples – -0.53%Real Estate – -1.45%Utilities – -1.70%Some of the big gainers today includedCadence Design (CDNS) – +7.60%Shopify Inc (SHOP) – +7.15%DoorDash (DASH) – +6.99%Moderna (MRNA) – +6.08%Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) – +5.75%Block (XYZ) – +5.55%First Solar (FSLR) – +5.54%Micron (MU) – +5.25%Synopsys (SNPS) – +4.80%Papa John's (PZZA) – +4.76%Western Digital (WDC) – +4.40%Nebius NV (NBIS) – +4.39%SLB NV (SLB) – +3.47%ASML ADR (ASML) – +3.45%Northrop Grumman (NOC) – +3.36%Uber Tech (UBER) – +3.18%Dollar Tree (DLTR) – +3.13%General Motors (GM) – +3.02%Some losers today included:Palo Alto Networks (PANW) – -6.82%Strategy (MSTR) – -2.66%Worthington Industries (WOR) – -2.57%Grayscale Bitcoin (BTC) (GBTC) – -2.22%Boeing (BA) – -2.10%American Airlines (AAL) – -2.05%Ford Motor (F) – -2.02% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Netflix stock analysis: buyers quietly rebuilding control on the medium-term structureNFLX is trading near $78, rebounding from the $75 area and approaching resistance at $79-$80. Performance has been weak across multiple timeframes, with the stock down apx. 30% over 3 months and 35% over 6 months, highlighting the broader corrective backdrop.Two major points from the chart$75 demand held The earlier decline toward $75 attracted meaningful participation, yet sellers failed to generate sustained follow-through. Price stabilized and rotated higher, suggesting demand was active beneath the surface.$79-$80 is the decision zone This area marks recent highs and a key supply pocket. Acceptance above $79-$80 would signal that buyers are gaining structural control. Rejection there would reinforce the broader downtrend context.Market bias score: +2 (slightly bullish)Buyers have regained short-term control, but the broader performance trend remains negative. A clean move above $80 would strengthen the bias. A break back below $76.50 would quickly neutralize it.Netflix (NFLX) Encounters Critical Resistance at Channel Midline Following Recent BounceThe 1-hour technical chart for Netflix (NFLX) highlights a clearly defined descending parallel channel that has guided price action throughout February. After finding strong support at the channel's lower boundary near $75.23, the stock has staged a short-term relief rally, pushing back up toward the $78 level. Price action is currently testing the channel's median line (indicated by the central dotted line), a pivotal technical zone. Traders will be watching closely to see if the stock can reclaim this level to target the upper channel resistance, or if the midline acts as a rejection point, potentially sending the price back toward recent lows.This analysis is intended for educational and decision-support purposes only. It is not financial advice. Markets are inherently uncertain, and all trading and investing decisions carry risk.For real-time trade ideas, follow-ups, and market insights across stocks, indices, commodities, and crypto, check out the investingLive Stocks Telegram channel. Trade ideas are shared for educational purposes only and at your own risk.https://t.me/investingLiveStocks This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Analysts expect a moderation in employment growth in January following December’s outsized gain, with the unemployment rate seen ticking slightly higher. The labour market is viewed as broadly steady rather than re-tightening, though January’s seasonal volatility adds uncertainty.---Australia’s January labour force survey will be closely watched as policymakers assess whether the recent stabilisation in labour market conditions signals renewed tightness or simply reflects monthly volatility.December delivered a stronger-than-expected outcome, with employment rising by 65.2k and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% from 4.3%, even as participation edged up to 66.7%. Analysts broadly view the strength as partly influenced by survey volatility rather than a clear re-acceleration in labour demand.For January, expectations are centred on a more moderate outcome. Analysts anticipate employment growth in the 15k–40k range, with the unemployment rate edging up to around 4.2%. Participation is expected to lift slightly to around 66.8%.The broader view is that the labour market remains in relatively good shape, but not materially tightening. Employment growth appears to be stabilising near cyclical lows, with labour demand steadying while labour supply gradually normalises. A modest cyclical unwind in labour supply has helped keep the unemployment rate broadly contained.January is historically one of the most volatile months for labour data. Seasonal factors, including shifting hiring patterns around year-end retail activity and the treatment of “marginally attached” workers, can distort headline figures. Analysts caution that separating signal from noise may take several months of data.For the Reserve Bank, the key question is whether the recent pause in labour market softening is temporary or the start of renewed capacity pressure. With inflation pressures having re-emerged, today’s data will help shape the near-term policy outlook, though one month’s result is unlikely to be decisive. What to watch:Employment change (consensus around +15k to +40k)Unemployment rate (seen ticking up to ~4.2%)Participation rate (expected near 66.8%)Full-time vs part-time splitAny signs of renewed wage-pressure momentum via hours workedA softer-than-expected print (employment near flat, unemployment 4.3%+) would likely ease immediate RBA tightening fears and weigh on AUD. A second strong upside surprise could reignite rate rise expectations and support the currency. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

If there was a fight on the street between two strangers would you join in?That's the analogy that traders would consider when there is high drama in a particular stock or sector. Right now it's software stocks as their being slammed lower on fears that AI will disrupt the sector.Unless you already had a position, there is no need to get involved. Yes, there might be opportunities but once it's a battleground the volatility gets intense and things overshoot. If you want to wade it, positions should be small and nimble. To my way of thinking, it's impossible to find the conviction in a battleground stock unless you're intimately familiar with the company, the sector and have a solid view on the macro. That's exceedingly rare and timelines are usually longer than you think. Once a stock becomes a battleground, it takes a long time for the smoke to clear.I can think of a time when it worked in the months after oil prices went negative. Jumping right in away was too tough as oil prices were moving 20% regularly on covid headlines, economic worries and uncertainty around demand. For me, the real buy signal wasn't until autumn 2020 when it was clear that covid wasn't going to destroy the world and oil was still in the $20s.On the other hand, I can think of an abundance of times when it was a wise course of action to sit out. Think of the meme stocks or sectors hit by uncertainty. One was banking in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. A number of regional banks were getting wrecked and there were analysts, bulls and bears screaming about who was holding losses. Banking is naturally opaque and executives can't be trusted so it was impossible to know they were safe.Ultimately, most were and the share prices rebounded in a big way. It's natural to regret missing a move like that but in the trenches of the battle it's not an easy call. More importantly, it's not a necessary one. Like Warren Buffett said in 199, there are no called strikes in investing."The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, 'Swing, you bum!', ignore them."Instead, the opportunity is usually in researching deeper into the places in the market that aren't on the front pages, slowly developing knowledge of different economies and waiting for a great pitch.The S&P 500 is trading at 23x forward earnings against the 30-year average of 17.1x.There aren't many fat pitches out there right now and that's why more and more market participants are looking at international equities. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.