If anything it done, it would be clarification on incidental objectsSpoke to the USTR this morning, we'll see if there's a narrowingHe also weighs in on the Fed chair drama involving Senator Tillis, who might want to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh i.e. Trump's pick to replace Powell.We'll see where the probe goesTillis wants to put a hold on any voteImportant to proceed with Senate hearingsI think we have an agreement on the hearingsMeanwhile, he's also touching on trade with China a little:We do not want to decouple from China, we want to de-riskWe want to engage in fair tradeOn the metals tariffs, it is related to the earlier headline here: Trump reportedly weighs up plans to scale back on steel and aluminium tariffsSo, that will be something to watch out for as it is more pertinent to the domestic political situation whereby Trump wants to bolster his approval ratings ahead of the midterms later in the year.Besides that, the other comments are rather pedestrian. They aren't really offering anything much as they are things we already know from recent developments.But I guess with regards to China trade relations, the fact that he is trying to be cordial says a lot about how the US administration is looking to keep the peace before Trump's visit to China in April. That fits with the report yesterday here, which outlines the US shelving key tech curbs against China for now. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSame as we saw for gold, yesterday we got a quick selloff in silver without any clear catalyst, although half of the losses were eventually pared back. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Today, the focus is on the US CPI report as it’s going to be a big risk event for precious metals. The market is pricing 58 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high risk of a hawkish repricing in case the data comes out strong. In such a scenario, we will likely see silver selling off again and potentially reaching new lows.On the other hand, a soft report shouldn’t change much in terms of near-term Fed policy, but it will keep the dovish bets in place which should act as support for silver.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver continues to consolidate between the trendline and the major swing high around the 92.00 handle. What level is going to be tested first will likely be decided by today’s US CPI report. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see there’s not much we can see on this timeframe either, but the fact that we are making lower highs could be a dangerous signal for the bulls as a test of the trendline might have higher probabilities. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. If the price pulls back to the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to position for drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the major swing level around the 92.00 handle. Watch out for the US CPI report today as it could trigger big moves in the market. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The sources are saying that OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes starting from April. However, the bloc has not yet made a firm decision on the matter and that talks will continue ahead of their 1 March meeting.The headline is enough to bring about a dip in oil prices, with WTI crude falling from around $63.00 to near $62.30 currently. That's seeing price fall by 0.9% on the day and coming back towards a key test of the 200-day moving average:That marks a key test on the charts for oil prices, after having to deal with constant US-Iran geopolitical uncertainty in recent weeks. The rebound in late January is still largely sustained, but only by the key technical level highlighted above.A break back below the 200-day moving average frees up room for oil to drop back towards the $60 mark potentially.While OPEC+ is coming back into the volatility equation for the oil market, do keep an eye out still for US-Iran headlines in the meantime. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Software stocks have been under heavy pressure as of late amid concerns of AI disruptions to the space. But yesterday, we're starting to see that spill over to some other parts of the market you'd least expect. It was quite a blowout in Wall Street: Every industry is one AI headline away from a brutal routAnd while we're seeing some stocks get annihilated, somehow the S&P 500 is still just 2.5% away from its record high. That speaks a lot about what's holding up major indices in the US at the moment. But even so, there are going to be nervous hands today with US futures sitting lower and the charts pointing to a test of the 100-day moving average for the index.It's now a question of whether the individual stock-level blowouts are starting to trickle over. And all of this has stemmed from worries due to AI disruption.Jefferies is weighing in on the matter, arguing that the market reaction may be overblown. However, they are also keeping cautious in not wanting to be buying the dip too early."We do not agree with the frenzy, but we also know not to stand in the way of position unwinds and flows."Adding that:"Companies which could show cost advantages from AI would be the winners while companies where the revenue stream is getting impacted would be losers. For now, we would recommend investors investing time and effort in identifying winners and losers, and keep powder dry."Given the potential for the S&P 500 to break lower technically, it's a fair call in my books. However, the big caveat in all this is that it is going to take time for firms to sort out their own mess and for markets to try and weed out the bad apples.It's not as easy as just looking at names and what these companies do and then going with that. If this week's rout has taught us anything, it is that especially.We're now in a new phase in the AI trade and the start of the year has shown how quickly the narratives can shift. We've moved from focusing on profitability to power and data centers, to investors demanding firms to "show me the money", and then now this. It's all about who can integrate AI in the most efficient manner in terms of profitability and capital costs. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar spiked higher following the strong US NFP report on Wednesday as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets, but surprisingly gave back all the gains soon after. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI. Whatever the reason, the data since the start of the year has been clearly pointing to improving conditions that do not justify further rate cuts. Today, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The Fed doesn't see the labour market contributing to inflationary pressures given the lower wage growth and higher productivity, so it could still cut rates solely based on more inflation easing (barring a quick deterioration in the labour market).If we get an in-line or soft CPI, there shouldn't be much change in terms of market pricing as the two rate cuts expected by the market are already above the Fed's projection. Nonetheless, we could see a dovish type of reaction in the market with the US dollar coming under some pressure.On the other hand, a hot report will likely trigger a stronger hawkish reaction following the hot NFP report on Wednesday. In this case, the US Dollar would likely rally across the board.INR:The Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US Dollar, but the recent positive developments on the tariffs and inflation front gave the INR a boost. In fact, the US and India finally reached a trade deal and President Trump announced that he will lower the tariffs from 25% to 18%. The RBI held interest rates steady at the last meeting and yesterday we saw inflation rising further in January to 2.75% from 1.33% in December, beating the 2.5% forecast. This should push rate cuts aside for the time being. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR is rejecting the lower bound of the channel as the dip-buyers continue to step in to position for a rally into the upper bound of the channel around the 93.00 handle. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to open the door for new lows with the 89.50 level as the first target.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see a strong resistance zone around the 91.00 handle where we have also the confluence with a downward trendline. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to target a break below the lower bound of the channel. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will continue to step in around the lower bound of the channel and look for a break above the resistance to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for short opportunities around the resistance and pile in with more conviction on a break below the lower bound of the channel.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

This was already evident when we saw the German and French trade data last week. For some context: US tariffs impact show up in German and French trade numbers, but is there a bigger worry?Of note, German exports to the US last year plunged while French exports were steady at the balance after some frontrunning was done before the major hit on wines and spirits. Meanwhile, both countries also saw imports from China surge higher. And both those trends were once again the standouts in reading into the overall EU trade report.The bloc's trade surplus for December fell to €12.9 billion, marking a drop from €14.2 billion in the same month a year ago. And as a whole for the year, the total trade balance for 2025 was €133.5 billion - down from €140.6 billion in 2024.The breakdown in terms of trading partners pretty much tell the whole story:The US remains the biggest export market for the EU. However, exports to the US declined considerably by 12.6% last year amid Trump's tariffs. And as a whole, that pushed down the EU's trade surplus with the EU by more than a third to just €9.3 billion.Meanwhile, the bloc's trade deficit with China widened further amid a surge in imports by over 10%. The notional amount well covers the the over 11% surge in exports to China as well for last year.As exports to the US drop and tariffs make it harder for EU firms to find customers, the bloc has to explore other options and has diversified well in that regard. But in terms of imports, it is clear that China is having a big impact in terms of penetrating the EU market.That represents a bit of danger for the EU as net exports have been a key pillar for growth in the region but that will slowly lose its stature if prevailing trade conditions continue in the years ahead.Besides that, the EU also has to be wary of the big picture impact of having to lean on China in trying to get by in these tough times amid US tariffs. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Rate cuts by year-endFed: 58 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoE: 48 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)ECB: 8 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)SNB: 7 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)Rate hikes by year-endBoC: 1 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoJ: 59 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBA: 39 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 40 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)You can find last week's market pricing here.It's been a pretty lacklustre week in terms of data releases and newsflow with the US NFP and US CPI reports being the only highlights. We got a hot NFP report with the headline number beating expectations by a big margin and the unemployment rate falling further despite an increase in the participation rate.The initial reaction was hawkish with traders paring back rate cut bets from 60 bps to 53 bps after the release. The pricing then increased back to 58 bps following a selloff in the stock market yesterday. It's unclear what triggered the weakness but the curious thing is that many other assets showed similar price action around the same time.Today, we wrap up the week with the US CPI report. If we get an in-line or soft CPI, there shouldn't be much change in terms of market pricing as the two rate cuts expected by the market are already above the Fed's projection. On the other hand, a hot report will likely trigger a stronger hawkish reaction following the hot NFP report on Wednesday. In such a case, we could see the market pricing converging with the Fed's projection. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Spotify Stock Analysis After Earnings: Why SPOT’s Post-Earnings Rally Faded and What Technical Structure Suggests NextSpotify (SPOT) delivered a strong earnings reaction, initially triggering a powerful upside move. However, much of that rally has since faded, leaving traders asking an important question:Was this a healthy pullback within a bullish shift, or early evidence of distribution?Market sentiment is currently defined by a "good news is good news" regime, where strong economic data supports equities provided inflation remains stable. While a recent robust non-farm payrolls report has bolstered the S&P 500's consolidation below the 7,000 level, investors are now closely watching the distribution of US CPI forecasts to gauge the potential for a market surprise. A soft inflation report could propel indices to new record highs, whereas hot figures risk a sharp hawkish repricing and technical breakdowns.Despite the S&P 500 remaining within striking distance of record highs, US futures have recently dropped lower as a tech-driven rout creates a "vortex of volatility" near key moving averages. This fragility serves as a reminder that multiple compression can impact any company, even giants like Microsoft, if market confidence in their narrative wavers. As technical levels face testing, the combination of high valuations and shifting sentiment suggests that even a minor catalyst could trigger a more significant retracement to end the week.In this detailed Spotify stock analysis, I examine SPOT technical analysis from a structural and participation perspective, as we dip dive into order flow analysis and price action, to assess what the recent behavior suggests for a Spotify prediction after earnings.Spotify Analysis After Earnings: Strong Gap Higher, But Weak Follow-ThroughFollowing earnings, Spotify surged sharply. Historically, the reaction was significant, with a reported price effect of +14.8% and an opening gap of +13.8% (!)On the surface, that type of earnings expansion often signals aggressive accumulation.However, what matters more than the size of the move is whether higher prices are accepted.In SPOT’s case:The upside expansion bar was large.Follow-through buying did not persist.Price stalled near post-earnings highs.Subsequent sessions began to fade the move.That combination shifts the interpretation.Instead of a clean regime shift higher, the structure began to resemble distribution into strength.SPOT Technical Analysis: What the Underlying Structure RevealsWhen evaluating Spotify technical analysis after earnings, it is critical to separate price movement from participation quality.1. The Earnings Expansion for Spotify StockThe initial move higher was impressive in range terms. But structurally:Buying pressure into the highs struggled to extend.Selling interest appeared on strength.Higher levels were not firmly established as new value.This type of behavior often suggests inventory transfer rather than fresh institutional accumulation.In simple terms, stronger hands may have used the earnings enthusiasm to reduce exposure into strength.2. The Stock's Giveback PhaseAfter the expansion failed to build, SPOT began retracing.Notably:The pullback unfolded without strong signs of aggressive new downside momentum.Buyers did not meaningfully defend higher levels.The unwind felt more like long liquidation than fresh short initiative.This nuance matters.It suggests the post-earnings rally may have been driven by short-term positioning rather than durable long-term demand.Longer-Term Context: Spotify Stock Still Within Broader Corrective StructureDespite the strong earnings reaction, Spotify stock remains within a broader corrective phase over recent months.The recent rally:Did not establish sustained higher value.Did not create a new multi-leg uptrend.Failed to build consistent follow-through above the breakout zone.From a longer-term perspective, that leaves SPOT in a transitional structure rather than a confirmed bullish regime.Key Technical Levels in This Spotify Stock AnalysisFor traders monitoring Spotify prediction after earnings, the following levels are critical:470 Zone - Post-Earnings Breakout AreaSustained acceptance above this level would signal buyers regaining structural control.460–470 Resistance BandIf rallies into this zone continue to stall, it reinforces overhead supply and weak positioning.Low 430s to High 420s SupportAcceptance below this area would likely shift SPOT from corrective pullback into a deeper bearish phase.SPOT Stock Technical Analysis: Why Traders Are Watching This Massive 2021 Pivot LevelThis monthly chart of Spotify highlights a critical retracement toward the February 2021 high (around $387), a major pivot point that previously capped the stock for nearly two years. Many market participants, including both discretionary traders and algorithms, are likely eyeing this area for a potential test of support as the price declines from its all-time highs. It is vital to understand that technical levels are rarely exact price points; rather, they act as "zones" of interest where liquidity often clusters, meaning a reaction can occur near the level without touching it perfectly.Educational Note: This scenario illustrates the technical concept of "Polarity" or "Role Reversal." In market psychology, once a significant resistance level (like the Feb 2021 high) is decisively broken, it often flips its role to become support upon a retest. This happens because the "memory" of the market shifts: sellers who previously defended the level are gone, and buyers who missed the initial breakout often wait for a pullback to that price to enter, creating a floor for the stock.Spotify Prediction After Earnings: Two ScenariosBullish ScenarioIf SPOT reclaims and sustains above 470 with stronger upside participation, the recent decline would likely be classified as a post-event reset. That would move the structure toward neutral or modestly bullish.Bearish ScenarioIf rallies continue to fade beneath resistance and price begins accepting lower levels, the technical picture would tilt toward further downside continuation.Market Bias Score for SPOT StockMarket bias score: -4 (moderately bearish)This reflects:Distribution characteristics into strengthFailure of sustained post-earnings acceptanceLack of strong re-accumulation signalsIt is not extreme because we are not seeing accelerating multi-leg downside momentum or structural collapse. The bias reflects caution, not a breakdown thesis.What Would Shift the Spotify Technical Analysis View?The bias would improve toward neutral or bullish if:Price sustains above 470Upside moves show stronger participation qualityRelative performance vs peers improvesThe bias would deteriorate if:Rallies into resistance continue failingPrice accepts below recent supportDownside follow-through expandsSo Spotify Analysis After Earnings Signals Caution, Not Collapse (... but also not a buy yet)This Spotify stock analysis suggests that while the earnings reaction was strong, the structural follow-through was not convincing. The recent giveback leans toward distribution and inventory unwind rather than a clean bullish shift.For now, SPOT sits in a moderate bearish tilt within a broader corrective environment. The next decisive move will likely come from whether price can reclaim and hold above the post-earnings breakout zone.This analysis is intended for educational and decision-support purposes only. It is not financial advice. Markets are inherently uncertain, and all trading and investing decisions carry risk.For real-time trade ideas, follow-ups, and market insights across stocks, indices, commodities, and crypto, check out the investingLive Stocks Telegram channel. Trade ideas are shared for educational purposes only and at your own risk.https://t.me/investingLiveStocks This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.CPI Y/Y2.8% (2%)2.7% (2%)2.6% (2%) 2.5% (65%) - consensus2.4% (24%)2.3% (6%)CPI M/M0.4% (6%)0.3% (64%) - consensus0.2% (24%)0.1% (6%)Core CPI Y/Y2.7% (2%)2.6% (22%) 2.5% (67%) - consensus2.4% (8%)Core CPI M/M0.4% (22%)0.3% (61%) - consensus0.2% (16%)As always, the focus will be on the Core figures. We can notice that expectations are slightly skewed to the upside with forecasts clustered around 2.5%-2.6% for the Y/Y figure and 0.3%-0.4% for the M/M measure. Therefore, the biggest moves will likely be triggered by deviations from these figures as that would be in the very low consensus.The Fed doesn't see the labour market contributing to inflationary pressures given the lower wage growth and higher productivity, so it could still cut rates solely based on more inflation easing (barring a quick deterioration in the labour market).If we get an in-line or soft CPI, there shouldn't be much change in terms of market pricing as the two rate cuts expected by the market are already above the Fed's projection. Nonetheless, we could see a dovish type of reaction, especially in the stock market with stabilising labour market and easing inflation.On the other hand, a hot report will likely trigger a stronger hawkish reaction following the hot NFP report on Wednesday. In this case, the US Dollar would likely rally across the board and precious metals would drop to new lows. The stock market could also come under pressure. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

New yuan loans ¥4.71 trillion vs ¥5.00 trillion expectedChina's new bank loans surged in January, as is typical of the new year. Looking back to 2025, this figure was ¥5.13 trillion in January last year. That said, the figure this time around misses on estimates but is still a big one in preparation of the Chinese New Year seasonal period.For some context, it is always the case that the PBOC and Beijing authorities will try to ramp up liquidity ahead of February where we will typically see peak seasonal demand in China. That especially also to ensure enough funds are flowing amid the longer holiday break. As a reminder, Chinese markets will be closed after today and will only return back to business on 24 February.Looking out to the year ahead, the big number to watch out for is ¥16.27 trillion as a cumulative total for the entire year. That was the total for new yuan loans in 2025, which already marked a second yearly decline since peaking in 2023. That will provide a better signal of credit conditions and domestic appetite, as Beijing continues to try and prop up the economy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The meeting was said to take place in Beijing on Thursday, with representatives from 60 German companies being in attendance. Of note, the list of German firms included the likes of BASF, BMW Group, and Bayer. The commerce ministry then reaffirmed that both China and Germany remain "committed to a fair and stable business environment".Once again, this just brings up the narrative of the enemy of my enemy is my friend. With both China and Europe being pushed to the corner by US on trade and tariffs, they are finding themselves to be the unlikely allies at this point in time.That has been well reflected by Germany's trade breakdown for last year as seen here. The deepening relationship between the two sides now sees China overtaking back the US to be Germany's top trade partner.And considering that the trade conflict with the US looks set to extend further with even the potential for things to blow up further, both Germany and China will want to keep closer ties until Trump leaves office at least. It's a long wait with three more years, including this one, to go. However, it will be in their best interests to keep with the status quo from last year.In the long-term though, Germany needs to be careful in their dealings with China on trade. China indirectly exporting deflation to Europe will be a key consideration in that regard.And if that starts to get embedded into German supply chains and how the economy is wired, there will be bigger problems to worry about than circumventing US tariffs. It's something that German lawmakers and policymakers will have to be mindful of and not sleepwalk into.That's the key risk if prevailing global trade conditions persist, and is already something that French advisors are warning about. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

IC Markets Global has been recognised by TradingView as the “Social Champion” at the 2025 TradingView Broker Awards, highlighting the broker’s strong engagement and connection with the global trading community. The Social Champion award recognises brokers that stand out on TradingView through active participation, meaningful interaction, and consistent engagement with traders across the platform’s social ecosystem. Recognition driven by community engagement Unlike traditional broker awards that focus solely on volume or scale, the Social Champion award reflects how brokers show up for traders day-to-day: through educational content, timely market commentary, and genuine interaction within the TradingView community. The award is based on a combination of verified user feedback, engagement metrics, and platform activity, ensuring recognition is grounded in real trader experience. Building a dialogue with traders IC Markets’ presence on TradingView focuses on more than execution and pricing. The broker actively supports traders by: Sharing market insights and trade-relevant commentary Engaging directly with trader discussions and feedback Supporting transparency and education within the community This approach has helped IC Markets Global build a strong, trusted voice within TradingView’s global network of traders. “Being recognised as TradingView’s Social Champion is especially meaningful because it reflects how traders engage with us, not just how they trade,” said Tony Philip, CMO at IC Markets. “We see TradingView as more than a platform, it’s a community. This award reinforces our commitment to staying connected, transparent, and responsive to traders worldwide.”IC Markets Global also thanked its clients and partners, noting that ongoing feedback from the TradingView community continues to shape how the brand communicates, educates, and evolves. About IC Markets Global Founded in 2007, IC Markets Global is a globally recognised CFD broker offering access to FX, indices, commodities, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. Known for its institutional-grade infrastructure and trader-focused approach, IC Markets serves clients across multiple regions worldwide. Find out more about IC Markets Global at icmarkets.com/global This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWYesterday, out of the blue, we got a quick selloff in gold without any clear catalyst. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Anyway, the focus now is on the US CPI report today. The market is pricing 58 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high risk of a hawkish repricing in case the data comes out strong. In such a scenario, we will likely see gold selling off again and potentially reaching new lows.On the other hand, a soft report shouldn’t change much in terms of near-term Fed policy, but it will keep the dovish bets in place which should act as support for gold.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is trading right in the middle between the all-time highs and the trendline. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to target new all-time highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the 4000 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see a strong resistance around the 5100 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past weeks. We got a break below the upward trendline yesterday which could be a signal of more downside to come. The sellers piled in on the break to target the 4656 level but if we get a retest of the broken trendline, the sellers will likely step in again near the resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the resistance to pile in for a rally into new all-time highs.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add but if the price were to fall below the recent low at 4878, we can expect the bearish momentum to increase as more sellers will likely pile into the selloff. Watch out for the US CPI report today as it could trigger big moves in the market. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.9%HICP +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y prelimPrior +3.0%The numbers here are slightly softer than what the initial estimates indicated. And they reflect a material decline in headline annual inflation to start the new year.That being said, core prices still represent the most important detail in this report and it is the one thing that the ECB focuses on the most. In that regard, core annual inflation in Spain is seen keeping steady in January at 2.6%. That is unchanged from what we saw in December.As such, core inflation is telling the story that price pressures in Spain are still holding up and keeping above the 2% threshold. That will keep policymakers at the central bank guarded with the story in Germany also shaping up to be a similar one. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.1%Core CPI +0.5% y/yPrior +0.5%Slight delay in the release by the source. The monthly estimate points to another negative reading (-0.1%), missing slightly on estimates this time around. That will be a slight concern looking out to the year ahead. This marks a fifth consecutive negative monthly estimate after recording flat inflation in August last year.That being said, the focus will stay on core inflation. And the monthly estimate there at least shows a +0.1% reading. So, there is a bit of comfort for the SNB in trying to deal with deflation pressures. Core annual inflation is seen steady at +0.5%, so that continues to afford the central bank some breathing room for now.As a reminder, the current backdrop sees the SNB wanting to avoid negative interest rates for as much as they can and for as long as they can get away with. And that means any further significant declines in pressures will be most welcome, at least for the time being.However, a stronger Swiss franc currency is making it very tough for the SNB to try and manage that. EUR/CHF has broken below the 0.92 threshold last month, marking fresh lows for the currency pair.The Swiss central bank has tried ever so hard in preventing excessive franc strength to breach that level since 2024. But amid heightened geopolitical tensions globally and both the dollar and yen falling out of favour as haven currencies, it has made the franc the only safe spot in town for currency traders to hedge against global risks. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we have the Swiss CPI and the Eurozone Q4 GDP. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.1% vs 0.1% prior. The data is unlikely to change anything for the SNB though as policymakers have repeatedly said that the bar for negative rates remains very high and that even a few months of negative inflation wouldn't be a problem.The Eurozone Q4 GDP is expected at 0.3% for the Q/Q measure and 1.3% for the Y/Y. This is the second estimate and won't change anything for the ECB as the central bank remains mostly focused on inflation.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs 2.7% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs 2.6% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior. The Fed doesn't see the labour market contributing to inflationary pressures given the lower wage growth and higher productivity, so it could still cut rates solely based on more inflation easing (barring a quick deterioration in the labour market).If we get an in-line or soft CPI, there shouldn't be much change in terms of market pricing as the two rate cuts expected by the market are already above the Fed's projection. Nonetheless, we could see a dovish reaction in the market, especially on stocks which should be supported. On the other hand, a hot report will likely trigger a stronger hawkish reaction following the hot NFP report on Wednesday. In this case, the US Dollar would likely rally across the board and precious metals would drop to new lows. The stock market could also come under pressure in the short-term.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS12:00 GMT/07:00 ET - BoE's Pill (hawkish - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Now is not the time for the ECB to move interest ratesWe are in a good position to move interest rates in any way if neededWe have yet to see the full impact of recent euro appreciationPolicymakers are on monitoring mode with regards to the euro strengthThere are concerns that a strong euro might be reflective on dollar weakness, uncertaintyThe remarks on their policy stance aren't anything surprising. The ECB remains sidelined at the moment and for the foreseeable future amid ongoing concerns on inflation still.As for the remarks on the euro, it once again says a lot about the situation when almost every policymaker at the central bank has to comment about it. That not only speaks to their concerns about the currency but it also speaks to the urgency and how the current level is something that markets have to be mindful of as well.As a reminder, ECB vice president Luis de Guindos had previously coined the 1.20 level for EUR/USD as one that is "complicated" for the central bank. And that seems to be the key line in the sand in terms of the pain threshold for the ECB. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being a rather large one for EUR/USD at the 1.1850 level. The expiries hold close to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1846 currently and that together, that could keep a floor on price action in the session ahead. The expiries could also act as a bit more of a magnet, with the key near-term level having been where buyers stepped in after the non-farm payrolls drop.So, the two when put together could lock in EUR/USD price action in European trading barring any major headline surprises. That before we get to the US CPI report later in the day of course.Besides that, there are some notable ones for USD/JPY but they aren't likely to factor much into play given the spot price currently.And if you notice, the Monday board is rather empty and that is because it will be a long weekend in the US. Monday will observe a US holiday in both stocks and the bond market, so that will keep things quieter once the hustle and bustle from the inflation data later settles down.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

We're starting to see the pressure build up again as we look to European morning trade today. That after the heavy selling in Wall Street amid continued concerns on the AI trade and potential disruptions surrounding the technology itself. It's creating quite a vortex of volatility, and it is one that might take some time to work out.S&P 500 futures are now down 0.4% with Nasdaq futures down 0.5% on the day. Meanwhile, Dow futures are down 0.3% currently.Here's the S&P 500 performance breakdown snapshot for yesterday:And here's the one for the Nasdaq:The big names creating a drag are all pretty much overlapping, as it is a tech-driven rout. But what is interesting about all of this is that despite all the concerns and recent pessimism, the S&P 500 is still just less than 2.5% away from its record high after the close yesterday. By that metric, it really doesn't look like a market that is in trouble whatsoever.However, sentiment is rather fragile and that can lead to exacerbated moves on the charts when push comes to shove.Right now, the S&P 500 is closing in on its 100-day moving average once again and that is a key technical level to take note of. It has helped to arrest previous declines and challenges to the upside momentum. However, a firm break this time around alongside a handful of triggers for sellers to work with could result in a sharp correction lower on a break.The Nasdaq has already taken out the same key technical level last week and the drop yesterday reinforces the momentum after a brief bounce on Monday. So, a coinciding break from the S&P 500 might be just the right trigger point for sellers to go in search of a stronger retracement lower for stocks to end the week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.