Prior +0.1%Core CPI +0.5% y/yPrior +0.5%Slight delay in the release by the source. The monthly estimate points to another negative reading (-0.1%), missing slightly on estimates this time around. That will be a slight concern looking out to the year ahead. This marks a fifth consecutive negative monthly estimate after recording flat inflation in August last year.That being said, the focus will stay on core inflation. And the monthly estimate there at least shows a +0.1% reading. So, there is a bit of comfort for the SNB in trying to deal with deflation pressures. Core annual inflation is seen steady at +0.5%, so that continues to afford the central bank some breathing room for now.As a reminder, the current backdrop sees the SNB wanting to avoid negative interest rates for as much as they can and for as long as they can get away with. And that means any further significant declines in pressures will be most welcome, at least for the time being.However, a stronger Swiss franc currency is making it very tough for the SNB to try and manage that. EUR/CHF has broken below the 0.92 threshold last month, marking fresh lows for the currency pair.The Swiss central bank has tried ever so hard in preventing excessive franc strength to breach that level since 2024. But amid heightened geopolitical tensions globally and both the dollar and yen falling out of favour as haven currencies, it has made the franc the only safe spot in town for currency traders to hedge against global risks. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we have the Swiss CPI and the Eurozone Q4 GDP. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.1% vs 0.1% prior. The data is unlikely to change anything for the SNB though as policymakers have repeatedly said that the bar for negative rates remains very high and that even a few months of negative inflation wouldn't be a problem.The Eurozone Q4 GDP is expected at 0.3% for the Q/Q measure and 1.3% for the Y/Y. This is the second estimate and won't change anything for the ECB as the central bank remains mostly focused on inflation.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs 2.7% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs 2.6% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior. The Fed doesn't see the labour market contributing to inflationary pressures given the lower wage growth and higher productivity, so it could still cut rates solely based on more inflation easing (barring a quick deterioration in the labour market).If we get an in-line or soft CPI, there shouldn't be much change in terms of market pricing as the two rate cuts expected by the market are already above the Fed's projection. Nonetheless, we could see a dovish reaction in the market, especially on stocks which should be supported. On the other hand, a hot report will likely trigger a stronger hawkish reaction following the hot NFP report on Wednesday. In this case, the US Dollar would likely rally across the board and precious metals would drop to new lows. The stock market could also come under pressure in the short-term.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS12:00 GMT/07:00 ET - BoE's Pill (hawkish - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Now is not the time for the ECB to move interest ratesWe are in a good position to move interest rates in any way if neededWe have yet to see the full impact of recent euro appreciationPolicymakers are on monitoring mode with regards to the euro strengthThere are concerns that a strong euro might be reflective on dollar weakness, uncertaintyThe remarks on their policy stance aren't anything surprising. The ECB remains sidelined at the moment and for the foreseeable future amid ongoing concerns on inflation still.As for the remarks on the euro, it once again says a lot about the situation when almost every policymaker at the central bank has to comment about it. That not only speaks to their concerns about the currency but it also speaks to the urgency and how the current level is something that markets have to be mindful of as well.As a reminder, ECB vice president Luis de Guindos had previously coined the 1.20 level for EUR/USD as one that is "complicated" for the central bank. And that seems to be the key line in the sand in terms of the pain threshold for the ECB. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being a rather large one for EUR/USD at the 1.1850 level. The expiries hold close to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1846 currently and that together, that could keep a floor on price action in the session ahead. The expiries could also act as a bit more of a magnet, with the key near-term level having been where buyers stepped in after the non-farm payrolls drop.So, the two when put together could lock in EUR/USD price action in European trading barring any major headline surprises. That before we get to the US CPI report later in the day of course.Besides that, there are some notable ones for USD/JPY but they aren't likely to factor much into play given the spot price currently.And if you notice, the Monday board is rather empty and that is because it will be a long weekend in the US. Monday will observe a US holiday in both stocks and the bond market, so that will keep things quieter once the hustle and bustle from the inflation data later settles down.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

We're starting to see the pressure build up again as we look to European morning trade today. That after the heavy selling in Wall Street amid continued concerns on the AI trade and potential disruptions surrounding the technology itself. It's creating quite a vortex of volatility, and it is one that might take some time to work out.S&P 500 futures are now down 0.4% with Nasdaq futures down 0.5% on the day. Meanwhile, Dow futures are down 0.3% currently.Here's the S&P 500 performance breakdown snapshot for yesterday:And here's the one for the Nasdaq:The big names creating a drag are all pretty much overlapping, as it is a tech-driven rout. But what is interesting about all of this is that despite all the concerns and recent pessimism, the S&P 500 is still just less than 2.5% away from its record high after the close yesterday. By that metric, it really doesn't look like a market that is in trouble whatsoever.However, sentiment is rather fragile and that can lead to exacerbated moves on the charts when push comes to shove.Right now, the S&P 500 is closing in on its 100-day moving average once again and that is a key technical level to take note of. It has helped to arrest previous declines and challenges to the upside momentum. However, a firm break this time around alongside a handful of triggers for sellers to work with could result in a sharp correction lower on a break.The Nasdaq has already taken out the same key technical level last week and the drop yesterday reinforces the momentum after a brief bounce on Monday. So, a coinciding break from the S&P 500 might be just the right trigger point for sellers to go in search of a stronger retracement lower for stocks to end the week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The story from earlier: Japan seizes Chinese fishing vessel in EEZ, arrests captain amid rising tensionsThe legality of the situation might not matter all too much. That especially since China and Japan are already in quite the state of conflict since Japan prime minister Takaichi took over. Her remarks on Japan potentially needing to intervene militarily on the Taiwan situation did not go down well with Beijing and that has since caused relations to sour dramatically in recent months.Considering the backdrop, the latest development above surely won't sit well with China. That no matter if Japan was acting within its own rights to take such action. In a time when the relationship between the two is rather sensitive, anything that can be spun into a controversial take will be used as some reasoning to strike back.Since the start of the year, China has already moved to curb rare earth exports and also banning exports of goods with potential military uses to Japan. And as a reminder, China has also urged citizens not to travel to Japan to try and inflict economic pain on Japan amid lower tourism income.With tensions remaining high in the East China Sea, expect Beijing to respond once again here. This looks to be the "new normal" in terms of China-Japan relations, even if it has only really escalated to this stage for a few months.However, it is best to stay in the know with the headlines just in case it really bubbles up into something major - more so than it already is now. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The report says that the US president is planning to roll back some tariffs on steel and aluminium goods, largely as a move to bolster his public image ahead of the November midterm elections. As a reminder, Trump slapped steel and aluminium imports with tariffs of up to 50% last year and even expanded that to cover a wide range of household goods made from other metals such as washing machines and ovens.The sources noted that the commerce department and US trade officials are of the view that tariffs were hurting consumers quite significantly by raising prices for goods. And that has created some outrage among voters in what they feel is now seen as an affordability crisis.As such, the softer stance seems to be a move that is to avoid further political backlash. That in hopes of boosting Trump's approval ratings ahead of the midterm elections at the end of the year.The US administration is reported to be now reviewing the list of products affected by the levies and plans to exempt some items. Adding to that, they will also put off from making the list longer than it currently is and instead launch more targeted national security probes into specific goods.The latter point is a notable one as the earlier tariffs had no proper breakdown and everything and anything was just punished with levies. I mean when bicycle parts are also included in the list of goods needing to be tariffed as part of "national security", it does say something about the inclusion process.Anyway, all of this reinforces the point that Trump is still one to walk back on tariffs after talking up a big game. If not for the stock market, then it is at least to make sure that he is still able to appease his voter base.However, the back and forth policy shifts here once again reaffirms that there is no coherent and consistency when it comes to policy administration by the US. And that is something that markets have been punishing the dollar for since last year.The full report can be found here (may be gated). This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

USS Ford strike group will join USS Lincoln carrier strike group in Persian GulfPBOC’s focus on overnight rate fuels speculation of policy shiftBOJ’s Tamura says inflation sticky, sees scope to judge target met by springChina housing market struggles despite “three red lines” removal. 62/70 cities price fallsNZ inflation expectations mixed ahead of likely RBNZ on hold decision February 18China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/mPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9398 (vs. estimate at 6.9045)Bank of Japan (BOJ) likely to avoid March rate hike, Japan PM adviser saysJapan seizes Chinese fishing vessel in EEZ, arrests captain amid rising tensionsJapan advances U.S. investment package talks but negotiations remain toughNew Zealand manufacturing PMI eases to 55.2 but signals solid expansion (vs. January 56.1)US January CPI preview: Core seen easing, but sticky monthly keeps Fed cut timing in playUBS: SNB unlikely to fight franc rally, sees EUR/CHF at 0.95 in 12 monthsWeekend risk: Lagarde to speak at Munich Security Conference as ECB stays data-dependentWestpac sees lift in NZ inflation expectations ahead of February RBNZ meetingEconomic and event calendar in Asia Friday, February 13, 2026 - we hear from the RBNZAt a glance:Japan seizes Chinese vessel, adding geopolitical tensionBOJ adviser signals no rush for March hike; USD/JPY reboundsChina home prices deepen decline across 62 citiesFX mostly rangebound ahead of US CPIUSS Gerald R. Ford redeployed to Middle East; oil mutedEU aviation regulator extends Iran airspace warningGold and silver firmRBNZ decision next week; inflation expectations mixedJapanese equities ease after strong weekly gainsJapan seized a Chinese fishing vessel inside its exclusive economic zone off Nagasaki and arrested the skipper after the boat allegedly fled inspection. The move risks adding fresh strain to already tense Tokyo–Beijing relations, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing trade and security friction between the two countries.On the monetary front, an adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government does not necessarily need to appoint reflationists to upcoming Bank of Japan board vacancies. He added the BOJ may see scope to raise rates later this year but is unlikely to move in March. The remarks were interpreted as reducing the probability of a near-term hike, providing a modest headwind for the yen. USD/JPY bounced toward 153.30 in response.Later more hawkish comments from BoJ Board member Tamura saw the yen gain back, USD/JPY down to circa 152.85.From China, new home prices fell 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in January, marking the steepest annual drop in seven months. Price declines were recorded in 62 of 70 cities surveyed, highlighting persistent weakness in the property sector despite policy easing and the removal of developer debt caps.Major FX pairs against the US dollar traded largely sideways in subdued ranges as traders await US CPI data due at 8:30 a.m. US Eastern time on Friday.Geopolitically, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group will be redirected from the Caribbean to the Middle East, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Persian Gulf as pressure on Iran intensifies. Crude oil showed little reaction, with expectations of a second carrier presence having built in recent weeks. Separately, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency extended its recommendation that airlines avoid Iranian airspace through March 31, citing elevated risks.Gold and silver edged higher.Japanese equities, including the Nikkei and Topix, pulled back slightly after solid gains earlier in the week, tracking Wall Street’s Thursday weakness. Asia-Pac stocks: Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.68%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -1.79% Shanghai Composite -0.70%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -1.37%Looking ahead, attention turns to the February 18 Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision, where a hold is widely expected. Inflation expectations data released today showed mixed signals. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group redirected from Caribbean to Middle East, extending deployment into spring.Summary:USS USS Gerald R. Ford and escort ships will be rerouted from the Caribbean to the Middle East, delaying their return home until late April or early May. This redeployment will see the Ford strike group join the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf, as part of heightened U.S. pressure on Iran. The Ford’s extended mission began June 24 when it left Norfolk, Va. for Europe, was rerouted to the Caribbean as part of U.S. Southern Command operations, and is now being redirected again.The United States Navy’s USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and its accompanying escort ships have been ordered to shift from their current deployment in the Caribbean to the Middle East, where they are expected to remain through late April or early May. The decision, communicated to the carrier’s crew on Thursday by U.S. officials, marks an extraordinary extension and redirection of what was initially scheduled as a routine overseas deployment. The Ford strike group’s deployment began on June 24, when the carrier departed Norfolk, Virginia for a planned European cruise. Instead, the carrier was first rerouted to the Caribbean under U.S. Southern Command operations, joining dozens of other warships in one of the largest U.S. maritime presences in the region in decades. Its mission was tied to enhanced pressure against transnational criminal networks and geopolitical tensions in Latin America. Now, as tensions with Iran remain high under the current U.S. administration’s strategic posture, the Ford strike group will join the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group already in the Persian Gulf. This reinforcement is part of a broader military positioning linked to Washington’s resurgent pressure campaign on Tehran’s leadership, reflecting strategic signalling as much as operational intent. Aircraft carriers like the Ford are central to U.S. power projection, equipped to provide air, sea, and missile strike capabilities from international waters without requiring host-nation basing rights.While Pentagon officials have not publicly confirmed the redeployment details, multiple U.S. sources familiar with internal discussions described the shift in orders. The Ford’s new assignment underscores both the intensity of current geopolitical pressures and the strategic value Washington places on maintaining a formidable aircraft carrier presence across multiple theaters of operation. This pic is of neither, I know. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

PBOC’s emphasis on overnight repo rate sparks talk of policy framework shift.Summary:PBOC elevates focus on overnight repo rateMonthly report reordered to highlight overnight benchmarkPotential shift away from 7-day reverse repo focusOvernight rate already trading close to policy rateSignals possible evolution in policy frameworkThe People's Bank of China has sharpened its focus on the overnight money market rate, fuelling speculation that Beijing may be preparing to recalibrate its operational policy framework.In its latest monthly report, the PBOC reordered its discussion of short-term rates, placing greater emphasis on overnight repo movements rather than the traditional seven-day reverse repo rate that has long been treated as its primary policy reference. The shift follows earlier guidance from the central bank indicating it would seek to keep short-term funding costs more closely aligned with its stated policy stance.Analysts see the move as more than cosmetic. By highlighting overnight conditions, the most immediate gauge of liquidity in the interbank market, the PBOC may be signalling a preference to anchor policy transmission at the shortest end of the curve. The overnight rate has already traded within 10 basis points of the official policy rate in more than half of 2025 trading sessions, suggesting de facto alignment is already occurring.A formal pivot from the seven-day reverse repo to an overnight benchmark would represent a structural evolution in China’s monetary operations. The seven-day rate has historically provided the clearest signal of policy intent, particularly during liquidity injections or tightening phases. However, a tighter corridor around the overnight rate could enhance control over short-term volatility and improve transmission to broader funding markets.Such a shift would also bring China’s framework closer to global central bank practice, where overnight benchmarks typically anchor policy implementation.While the PBOC has not explicitly declared a change in its primary target, the report’s reordering and operational signals suggest the groundwork for a more flexible, overnight-focused system may already be underway.People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tamura flags sticky inflation and positive output gap, signalling scope for further BOJ rate hikes.Summary:BOJ’s Tamura says inflation becoming “sticky”Price target may be judged achieved as early as springOutput gap already positiveYen weakness a renewed inflation riskPolicy still accommodative at 0.75%Neutral rate likely at least around 1%Signals scope for further tighteningBank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura delivered remarks that reinforce the case for further policy normalisation, warning that inflation in Japan is becoming increasingly sticky and that the central bank may soon be in a position to judge its 2% price target as sustainably achieved.Tamura said recent inflation dynamics suggest price pressures are stabilising at elevated levels rather than fading. He noted that consumer inflation has been hovering around the 2% target and argued that the Bank may be able to determine as early as this spring that its price objective has been met. Such language marks a notable shift from the long-running focus on deflation risks.He added that Japan’s output gap has already moved into positive territory, signalling capacity constraints and supply-side pressures that are pushing prices higher. Rising food costs are expected to persist, while renewed yen weakness poses upside risks to the inflation outlook via import prices.Against this backdrop, Tamura emphasised that monetary conditions remain accommodative even after the policy rate was lifted to 0.75% in December 2025. He suggested that the cumulative tightening to date has had limited restraining impact on economic activity, with investment and financial conditions still broadly supportive.Crucially, Tamura indicated that the neutral policy rate is likely at least around 1%, implying there remains considerable room for additional rate increases before policy becomes restrictive. This framing signals that further hikes would represent continued normalisation rather than an overt tightening cycle.He stressed the need to scrutinise incoming data carefully to ensure a “smooth landing,” but the overall tone suggests the BOJ is increasingly confident that Japan has exited its deflationary phase.Taken together, the speech reinforces expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue edging rates higher if inflation proves durable. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s housing slump deepens as January prices post steepest annual drop in seven months. Earlier on this here:China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/madding a little more now:Summary:China new home prices fall 0.4% m/m, -3.1% y/y in JanuaryAnnual decline steepest in seven months62 of 70 cities report price dropsResale market weakness persists“Three red lines” policy scrappedDeveloper funding stress continuesWeak housing weighs on consumption and growthChina’s housing downturn deepened in January, with official data showing new home prices falling 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% from a year earlier. The annual decline accelerated from December’s 2.7% drop, marking the steepest contraction in seven months and reinforcing concerns that the sector has yet to find a durable floor.The weakness was broad-based. Of the 70 cities surveyed, 62 recorded price declines, up from 58 in the prior month. The secondary market also remained under pressure. While month-on-month declines in resale prices moderated slightly, year-on-year falls widened sharply, with tier-one city prices down 7.6% and smaller cities registering declines of more than 6%.The property sector, once a central driver of China’s economic expansion, continues to weigh on household wealth and sentiment. Falling home values have constrained consumer spending at a time when policymakers are attempting to rebalance growth and offset external trade risks. Reviving domestic demand remains a core priority, but the persistent housing slump underscores the difficulty of restoring confidence.Authorities have rolled out a range of supportive measures since the crisis began in 2021, including easing home purchase restrictions, lowering down-payment requirements and cutting mortgage rates. More recently, state media reported that regulators had removed the “three red lines” policy — caps on developers’ leverage ratios that were introduced in 2020 and widely seen as triggering a liquidity squeeze across the industry.Despite the policy shift, funding strains remain acute. Many developers are still burdened by high debt levels and face challenges securing fresh financing. The sector is also adjusting away from the highly leveraged expansion model that powered the previous boom.With price declines broadening and annual falls intensifying, January’s data suggests China’s property sector remains a drag on growth and financial stability. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

RBNZ set to hold at 2.25% as inflation expectations send mixed signals and hike bets build for 2026.Summary:RBNZ widely expected to hold OCR at 2.25% on February 18Inflation at 3.1%, above 1–3% target bandRate cuts since 2024 total 325bpHike expectations for end-2026 risingFutures price ~60% chance of hike by Q3 end2-yr inflation expectations ease to 2.4%1-yr expectations tick up to 2.6%The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to leave its official cash rate unchanged at 2.25% at its February 18 meeting, with all 31 economists in a Reuters poll forecasting a hold. After aggressively cutting rates by a cumulative 325 basis points since August 2024 to counter recessionary pressures, policymakers now appear set to pause and assess how inflation and growth evolve.Inflation rose to 3.1% in the latest quarterly reading, moving just above the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band and marking its highest level in over a year. At the same time, the economy returned to growth in the third quarter following a prolonged contraction, reinforcing the case for a wait-and-see approach.While consensus sees no immediate move, the debate has shifted toward when tightening might resume. Around 45% of economists surveyed now expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, a notable increase from late last year. Futures markets are even more assertive, pricing roughly a 60% probability of a 25bp or larger hike by the end of the third quarter.Recent RBNZ inflation expectations data adds nuance to the outlook. One-year expectations edged up to 2.6% from 2.4%, while two-year expectations — closely watched by policymakers — eased to 2.4% from 2.6%. The moderation in the two-year measure may offer some reassurance that medium-term inflation pressures remain contained, even as short-term expectations firm.Some economists caution that talk of renewed tightening may be premature. While activity data has surprised to the upside, they argue the recovery remains tentative and that inflation pressures are not yet clearly demand-driven.The upcoming decision is therefore likely to emphasise optionality: holding steady for now, while keeping the door open to future tightening should inflation prove persistent. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s housing slump deepens as January prices fall 3.1% y/y, extending multi-year downturn.Summary:Deflationary property trend deepensDeveloper balance sheets remain strainedDebt overhang continues to weigh on sectorPolicy support yet to generate sustained turnaround China’s property downturn showed little sign of stabilising in January, with new home prices falling 3.1% year-on-year, deepening from the prior 2.7% decline. On a monthly basis, prices slipped 0.4%, unchanged from December, underscoring the persistence of downward momentum in the sector.The data reinforces the view that China’s housing market remains entrenched in a multi-year correction. What began as a liquidity squeeze among heavily leveraged developers has evolved into a broader demand slump, with weak buyer confidence, falling sales volumes and declining prices feeding into each other.The sector’s debt burden remains a central pressure point. Years of aggressive expansion funded by high leverage left many developers exposed when authorities tightened financing conditions under the “three red lines” policy framework. High-profile defaults and restructuring efforts have continued to cloud the outlook, while pre-sale funding models have struggled amid slower buyer demand.Policy easing has been incremental rather than aggressive. Authorities have lowered mortgage rates, relaxed purchase restrictions in some cities and encouraged state-backed entities to support unfinished projects. However, these measures have yet to deliver a decisive inflection point. Household sentiment remains cautious, particularly as broader economic growth has moderated and youth unemployment concerns linger.The property sector carries outsized importance in China’s economy, directly and indirectly accounting for a substantial share of GDP, local government revenues and household wealth. Persistent price declines therefore have implications well beyond construction activity, affecting consumer spending, credit growth and financial stability.With monthly declines holding steady and annual falls deepening, January’s figures suggest the sector is still searching for a floor. Markets will continue to watch for stronger fiscal or monetary intervention should deflationary pressures in property intensify further. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Previous close 6.9033Injects CNY 145bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate unchnaged at 1.40% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Takaichi adviser signals no need for reflationist BOJ picks as Japan exits deflation, March hike seen unlikely.Summary:PM adviser Honda says BOJ board picks need not be reflationistsJapan described as having exited deflationBOJ may have scope to hike this yearMarch hike seen as unlikelyBoard nominations due as early as Feb 25Markets watching for Takaichi’s policy stanceAn economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has played down the need for Tokyo to appoint outspoken reflationists to upcoming vacancies on the Bank of Japan board, signalling a potentially more pragmatic stance toward monetary policy as Japan transitions out of its deflationary era.Etsuro Honda, a long-time ally of Takaichi and former aide to late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, said the government does not necessarily need to select board members committed to aggressive monetary easing. He argued that Japan’s economic conditions have shifted materially, with the country now out of deflation and entering a new phase focused on sustainable growth.Honda said the Bank of Japan may see scope to raise interest rates later this year as inflation and bond yields suggest continued normalisation. However, he indicated that a move in March would likely be premature, given the need to assess the impact of December’s rate hike and broader financial conditions.Two of the BOJ’s nine board seats are due to open this year, including that of Asahi Noguchi at the end of March and Junko Nakagawa in June. The government is expected to submit a nominee to parliament as early as February 25. The selections will require approval from both chambers and are widely viewed as a test of how closely Takaichi intends to align herself with or influence central bank policy.Under Governor Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ exited its ultra-loose stimulus framework in 2024 and has since lifted rates to 0.75%, reflecting confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target.Honda’s remarks suggest the administration may allow gradual policy tightening to proceed, rather than attempt to reinstall a strongly dovish bias on the board. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan arrests Chinese fishing skipper inside its EEZ, adding fresh strain to already tense Tokyo–Beijing ties.Summary:Japan seized a Chinese fishing vessel inside its EEZ off Nagasaki47-year-old Chinese skipper arrested after allegedly fleeing inspectionFirst seizure of a Chinese vessel since 2022Incident risks further straining Tokyo–Beijing relationsComes amid elevated tensions over Taiwan and export controlsChina previously imposed seafood curbs and rare-earth restrictionsJapanese authorities have seized a Chinese fishing vessel and arrested its captain after the boat allegedly refused to comply with an inspection order inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), a move that risks adding fresh strain to already tense relations between Tokyo and Beijing.According to Japan’s fisheries agency, the vessel was operating approximately 89.4 nautical miles south-south-west of Meshima Island, off Nagasaki Prefecture, when a fisheries inspector ordered it to stop for an on-board inspection. Officials said the vessel failed to comply and attempted to flee, prompting enforcement action. The captain, a 47-year-old Chinese national, was arrested the same day. Eleven crew members were reportedly on board, including the skipper.The agency said it routinely conducts inspections in waters surrounding Japan to enforce fisheries regulations. This marks the first time since 2022 that Japanese authorities have seized a Chinese fishing boat. In 2025, two other foreign vessels, one Taiwanese and one South Korean, were seized, while in 2024 authorities conducted seven on-board inspections and confiscated fishing gear in multiple cases.The incident unfolds against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical friction between the two countries. Relations have deteriorated over security and trade issues, including tensions surrounding Taiwan. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi previously angered Beijing by suggesting Japan could intervene militarily if China attempted to take Taiwan by force.In response to earlier disputes, China has summoned Japan’s ambassador, issued travel advisories for its citizens, tightened export controls on items with potential military applications, and reportedly suspended certain Japanese seafood imports. Beijing has also conducted joint military exercises with Russia.While the vessel seizure centres on fisheries enforcement, the broader political environment suggests the episode could reverberate beyond maritime regulation, adding another layer of tension to an already fragile bilateral relationship. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Westpac: near-term NZ inflation expectations likely to rise in Q1 RBNZ survey Summary:Westpac expects a lift in near-term inflation expectations in the Q1 RBNZ survey.Two-year-ahead expectations last stood at 2.28%.Recent inflation surprises and firmer activity data cited as drivers.Focus on whether longer-term expectations edge higher.Survey will be key ahead of the 18 February RBNZ meeting.New Zealand’s inflation outlook is likely to show renewed firmness in the Reserve Bank’s latest Survey of Expectations, according to Westpac, with the near-term measures particularly at risk of moving higher.The Q1 survey, due 13 February, 0200 GMT (2100 US Eastern time on February 12) previously showed inflation expectations two years ahead at 2.28%. Westpac believes recent developments point to at least a modest rise at shorter horizons, reflecting upside inflation surprises over recent months and accumulating signs that economic activity is stabilising.Stronger-than-anticipated price data have altered the narrative somewhat from late 2025, when disinflation appeared more entrenched. At the same time, improving business sentiment and firmer indicators of domestic demand suggest price pressures may prove more persistent than earlier assumed.Westpac argues that the trajectory of longer-term expectations will be especially important for policymakers. While a lift in short-term measures may be understandable given recent data, any meaningful increase in two-year or longer horizons would likely attract closer scrutiny from the Reserve Bank.The survey lands just days before the RBNZ’s 18 February policy meeting, making it a timely input into the Monetary Policy Committee’s deliberations. Recent economic data have already indicated that inflation could track stronger than the central bank previously projected, raising questions about how quickly policymakers can shift toward a more accommodative stance.For markets, a rise in expectations — particularly at the two-year horizon — could reinforce a cautious policy outlook and temper expectations of near-term easing. Conversely, stable longer-term readings would help reassure officials that inflation remains anchored close to the 2% midpoint of the target range. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It's a light sort of calendar, with the RBNZ info of note. Fed speakers include Miran, who always calls for lower rates. And Logan, we heard from her earlier in the week:ICYMI - Fed officials signal patience as rates seen near neutral and inflation lingers This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US weekly initial jobless claims 227K vs 222K expectedUS January existing home sales 3.91m vs 4.18m expectedTrump: We have to make a deal with Iran, could come over the next monthUS sells 30-year bonds at 4.750% vs 4.771% WINetanyahu says Trump may reach good deal with IranUS January CPI report to offer a cleaner read on inflation developments?Markets:Gold down $161 to $4916WTI crude oil down $1.76 to $62.87US 10-year yields down 8 bps to 4.10%S&P 500 down 1.65%JPY leads, AUD lagsNothing is safe except bonds. That was the message from trading today as a handful of sectors like software continued to be beaten down while others like trucking and office real estate joined in the bloodbath.The day started out ho-hum with stocks flat and nothing too dramatic underway. Initial jobless claims were on the soft side but didn't create any waves. But the pain started in software stocks with Applovin, which quickly fell 16% despite beating on the top and bottom line.It was another reminder of just how quickly winners can turn to losers in this market and that fear spread right into the close. Trucking companies and commercial real estate were hit particularly hard, with drops in the 20% range intraday. Other stocks looked like they were pricing in a sudden recession, which is the opposite of what yesterday's non-farm payrolls report showed.In gold, the move was sudden as it fell $100 in minutes and then continued to slide afterwards. That move is still unexplained and the rumor mill kicked up with talk of a CPI leak ahead of tomorrow's report.The bond market didn't help the mood as the stop through in the 30-year bond sale was the largest since Liberation Day. Up to now, the bond market wasn't validating the turmoil in equities but that could be changing. Oil also sold off on the Trump/Netanyahu statements. The indications are towards at least a month of negotiations, though things tend to change quickly with Trump.Overall, it was an unsettling day and it's equally worrisome that so many stocks have quickly fallen 10-20% and yet the S&P 500 is still only 3% from a record. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.