The AUDUSD fell sharply today amid renewed concerns over deteriorating U.S.–China relations. China, which controls the global supply of many rare earth minerals critical for defense and technology production, appears to be leveraging that position as a bargaining chip in the escalating trade standoff. The market mood turned risk-off early in the session as traders questioned whether tensions might intensify — or when they might be resolved — sending both stocks and the AUDUSD lower.As the U.S. equity indices rebounded from session lows, AUDUSD also staged a recovery, climbing back toward a key swing area near 0.6481. That level now serves as a short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. A sustained move above it would open the door for a test of 0.6500–0.65046, followed by the 100-day moving average, which capped yesterday’s high and remains a crucial upside barrier.On the downside, if sellers lean against current resistance and trade tensions flare again, support comes in near 0.6449–0.6454, with the session low around 0.6440 and the 200-day moving average at 0.64223 as the next downside targets.For now, the pair sits at a technical crossroads — caught between geopolitical headlines and chart resistance, with traders weighing whether today’s rebound is the start of a recovery or merely a pause before another push lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Tech Giants Falter Amidst Economic ConcernsThe U.S. stock market presented a mixed picture today, with noticeable declines in the technology sector, led by semiconductor and large-cap stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) dropping 3.48% and Oracle (ORCL) falling 4.00%. This suggests investor caution around tech's current valuation amidst ongoing economic concerns and possible regulatory scrutiny.? Semiconductor Sector: Under PressureThe semiconductor sector experienced significant pressure, with major players like AVGO and INTC down 3.22% and 4.96%, respectively. Concerns about global demand and supply chain issues continue to shake investor confidence in this space.? Financial Sector: Signs of StrengthIn contrast, the financial sector showcased resilience. Wells Fargo (WFC) posted an impressive rise of 4.73%, reflecting strong earnings and optimistic forward guidance. Credit service entities like American Express (AXP) also saw gains, up 1.91%.?️ Consumer Defensive GainsRetail giant Walmart (WMT) surged 2.91%, benefiting from robust consumer spending and strategic business operations. This positive performance underlines a defensive shift as investors seek stability amidst market volatility.? Market Mood and TrendsThe overall market mood suggests a shift towards caution and defensive positioning. Increasing economic uncertainty and fluctuating tech sector performance underscore a broadly risk-averse sentiment. Looking forward, attention turns to economic data releases and potential fiscal policy adjustments that could shape market trajectories.? Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider assessing their exposure to volatile sectors such as technology and explore opportunities within the financial and consumer defensive spaces to balance risk. Amidst the ongoing market instability, consistent monitoring of sector performances and macroeconomic developments will be crucial. Stay informed with real-time updates and analyses at InvestingLive.com to align strategies with dynamic market shifts. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD began the US session trading near the lows for the day, hovering just above the low from last week at 1.15414. Sellers made several attempts to push the pair below that level, but each effort failed to generate sustained downside momentum. Once the price started to trade more comfortably above the top of the nearby swing area at 1.15612, sentiment shifted — sellers turned to buyers, sparking a rebound.That upside push carried the pair toward the next key swing area between 1.1581 and 1.15959. The critical level within that zone is the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.1592, which also coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the August 1 low. The overlap of these two technical markers makes this area particularly important.A break and hold above 1.1592 would likely open the door for further upside momentum, as it would signal a shift in near-term control back to the buyers. Conversely, failure to extend above and a rotation back below 1.1561 would keep the broader downtrend from the September high intact, leaving sellers in control of the technical narrative for now. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

We are meeting-by-meeting and data dependentSays she was surprised by resilience of economyEconomy is more-balanced than what it wasThere has not been tariff retaliation by EuropeWe have both upside and downside risks to inflationMy hope for US-China trade is certaintyChinese exports could be directed to Europe and that will have consequences for growthThe movement of Chinese goods to Europe has increased but not as much as fearedThe euro hasn't moved on her comments so far and remains up 7 pips on the day to 1.1575. The market only sees a small chance of a further ECB rate cut. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The market is trying to sort out how much it should worry about a renewed US-China trade war. Initial heavy selling at the US equity open has been met with a wave of buying and now stocks are slightly above opening levels.The bids came at Friday's lows and that's acted as a nice springboard.In FX, the willingness to sell the US dollar hasn't let up despite the turn. The euro and pound are at US session highs while the commodity currencies are at the best levels of the day. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump said not to worry about China but the market doesn't quite believe it. A Dutch company took over a Chinese chipmaker and now China has sanctioned five US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean.That has the market wondering if things wont' get worse before the November 1 deadline set by Trump and China.So far, Friday's lows are holding.Big losers include:INTC -6%GS -4.9%ORCL -4.3%FCX -4.1%AVGO -3.8%TSLA -3.7%AMZN -2.8% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Major US stock indices are opening lower despite better earnings to kickstart the earnings calendar. Worries about US/China relations, and the US government shutdown leading to slower growth is hurting equities. Technically, the NASDAQ index and S&P indices are back below the 200 hour moving averages. The NASDAQ index is down -410 points or -1.82%. The S&P index is down -1.25% and the Dow industrial average is down -1.02%For the NASDAQ index, the price gapped higher yesterday and closed just under the 100 hour moving average (blue line on the chart below at 22692). Today was going to be a key barometer for both buyers and sellers with a move higher tilting the bias to the upside, and a move lower tilting the bias lower. The gap to the downside has now taken the price back below its 200-hour moving average at 22418, putting the sellers in control as long as that MA now holds resistance. That moving average will be a barometer for buyers and sellers now. Staying below is more bearish. On the downside, the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the early August low comes in at 22143.26. That is the next major target on the downside.The S&P index is also below the 200 hour MA and is now approaching the 38.2% retracement and low from yesterday. It is targeting the 38 2% retracement at 6553.75. There was also near the low from yesterday , and the low price going back to September 17 (see chart below).Looking at some of the companies that issued earnings this morning (and beat on the top and bottom line):J&J is up around 1% Wells Fargo is up 4% JPMorgan -2.9%Goldman Sachs -3.85%Citigroup +0.15%BlackRock +2.24% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The fresh salvos in the trade war have the market pricing in 49.3 bps in easing this year, which would get the Fed to 3.50-3.75%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is making a decisive “break for it” with a move above the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 trading range at 1.40212. That level sits within a key swing area between 1.4010 and 1.40268, which now serves as a risk-defining zone for buyers. Holding above this area keeps the bias tilted to the upside.On the topside, there isn’t much in the way of meaningful resistance until the next swing area between 1.41490 and 1.41836, which also includes the 50% midpoint of the 2025 range at 1.41696. If buyers can sustain momentum above the current breakout zone, that 50% region will become the next major decision point for both sides of the market.For now, the buyers have seized control — the question is whether they can defend the breakout and extend the move toward the next resistance target. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Global 2025: 3.2% vs 3.0%Global 2026: 3.1% vs 3.1%U.S. 2025: 2.0% vs 1.9%U.S. 2026: 2.1% vs 2.0%IMF says U.S. outlook aided by lower-than-forecast effective tariff rates, tax bill, fiscal boost, easier financial conditionsChina 2025: 4.8% vs 4.8%China 2026: 4.2% vs 4.2%Eurozone 2025: 1.2% vs 1.0%Eurozone 2026: 1.1% vs 1.2%Japan 2025: 1.1% vs 0.7%Japan 2026: 0.6% vs 0.5%IMF says BOJ likely to raise interest rates gradually over medium term toward neutral level of 1.5%Canada 2025 1.2% vs 1.6% Canada 2026 1.5% vs 1.9%India 2025/26: 6.6% vs 6.4%Argentina 2025: 4.5% vs 5.5%Argentina 2026: 4.0% vs 4.5%Mexico 2025: 1.0% vs 0.2%Mexico 2026: 1.5% vs 1.4%Brazil 2025: 2.4% vs 2.3%Brazil 2026: 1.9% vs 2.1%Latin America & Caribbean 2025: 2.4% vs 2.2%Latin America & Caribbean 2026: 2.3% vs 2.4%Global headline inflation 2025: 4.2% (from 5.8% in 2024)Global headline inflation 2026: 3.7% (from 4.2% in 2025)IMF chief economist Gourinchas said the latest U.S.-China trade tensions represent a downside risk, won't yet alter baseline forecasts. She noted that a material escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions could have big negative impact on global growthOverall, these numbers highlight the improving view on the trade war as the impacts haven't been as harsh as feared a few months ago. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US Ambassador To NATO just said to expect a ‘big’ Ukraine weapons announcements tomorrow. I don't think it's a mystery as to what it will be as Trump yesterday said he may send them to Ukraine.Zelensky said he will meet Trump in Washington on Friday for talks that will focus on air defence and long-range capabilities.Russia has said that long-range weapons would be a major escalation and it's notable the Ukraine has been attacking Russian energy infrastructure, so this could be a bullish catalyst for oil prices.Tomahawk missiles travel at Mach 0.7 and have a practical range of 1600 km with a 1000 lb warhead. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -0.1% (revised to -1.1%)Permits down 5.9% y/yResidential -2.4% m/mThe Canadian construction pipeline is going to slow dramatically in the year ahead as the Toronto condo boom turns into a bust. Prime Minister Mark Carney will release his first budget on November 4 and one of the main aims will be to spur nation-building projects, something the government hopes will counter slowing private sector construction.Here's the splint on residential/non-residential: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is mixed with the EURUSD down marginally (higher USD), the USDJPY lower (lower USD) and the GBPUSD the biggest moveer with a decline near -0.50% (higher USD) after weaker employment data. In the video above, I kickstart the trading day in the forex by taking a technical look at each of those 3 major currency pairs. What is the bias, what are the targets and the risks for each. US House Speaker Mike Johnson said the ongoing federal shutdown could extend into the longest-ever on record and is scheduled to hold a press conference at 10:00 EDT, as Republicans prepare for further negotiations. Meanwhile, the White House is reportedly planning for a prolonged shutdown, identifying alternative funding streams to sustain key government programs during the impasse, according to officials cited by Punchbowl.China has tightened oversight of export license applications for rare earth magnets, expanding its export control regime to require licenses even for products containing trace amounts of Chinese-sourced rare earths, particularly those used in defense and advanced semiconductor applications. In response, China’s Commerce Ministry urged the U.S. to correct “mistakes” and expressed hope for resolving the dispute through dialogue. Meanwhile, U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Bessent, have reportedly engaged in recent discussions with Chinese counterparts emphasizing a desire to de-escalate trade tensions, though countermeasures were not ruled out. Sources indicate Washington may ask Beijing to rescind the new rare-earth export restrictions. The rare earth issue is the "cryptonite" for the US tariff strategy with China. US needs China rare earth for defense, which it hopes to sell to high tension areas of the world, as well as to increase the US military arsenal. China might determine if that can happen. The earnings calendar kicked off with some financials and J&J leading the charge. Overall, some of the bigger names beat estimates on the top and bottom lines JPMorgan (JPM) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS $5.07 (BEAT; exp. $4.82), Revenue $46.4 bln (BEAT; exp. $45.16 bln)Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS $1.66 (BEAT; exp. $1.55), Revenue $21.44 bln (BEAT; exp. $21.15 bln); Net Interest Income $11.95 bln (MISS; exp. $12.01 bln)Goldman Sachs (GS) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS $12.25 (BEAT; exp. $10.89), Revenue $15.18 bln (BEAT; exp. $14.42 bln)Citigroup (C) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS $2.24 (BEAT; exp. $1.89), Revenue $22.1 bln (BEAT; exp. $21.14 bln); raises dividend to $0.60/shareJohnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS $2.80 (BEAT; exp. $2.75), Revenue $23.99 bln (BEAT; exp. $23.78 bln); raises FY sales guidance to $93.5–93.9 bln (from $93.2–93.6 bln) vs exp. $93.44 bln; intends to separate orthopaedics businessBlackRock (BLK) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS $11.55 (BEAT; exp. $11.24), Revenue $6.51 bln (BEAT; exp. $6.23 bln); AUM $13.464 tln (BEAT; exp. $13.37 tln)Overall, a strong showing from financials — Goldman Sachs led with a sizable double beat, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo delivered solid gains, and BlackRock posted broad strength across EPS, revenue Johnson & Johnson also topped expectations and raised guidance, signaling a resilient earnings season kickoff. However, stocks are under pressure premarket as concerns about trade issues with China and the shutdown, (day 14) take precedence. Dow Industrial Average -262 pointsS&P -59 pointsNasdaq -286 pointsThe US debt market is reopened after being closed for Columbus Day yesterday. A snapshot at the start of the NA session shows: 2 year yield 3.482%, -3.9 basis points 5 year yield 3.603%, -4.3 basis points10 year yield 4.016%, -3.2 basis points30 year yield 4.608%, -2.5 basis points.Looking at other markets Crude oil $-1.24 or -2.08% at $58.25Gold up $16.70 or 0.41% at $4127Silver down -$0.92 or -1.75% at $51.41Bitcoin down -$3600 at $111,573 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Current view is a preponderance of downside risksUpside risks to inflation low compared to the downward trajectory in output and inflation fundamentalsI see wage settlements close to or below 3% next yearWage inflation will not re-kindle an upward spiralTaylor, coupled with Dhingra, is the most dovish BoE member, so these comments are not surprising. As a reminder, we got a soft UK labour market report today with the unemployment rate ticking higher and the employment numbers disappointing forecasts. Wage growth, on the other hand, beat expectations as it remains elevated. The market increased the dovish bets on the BoE with two rate cuts fully priced in by the end of 2026. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EU and US look to partner up to take on China's rare earth clampdownUS September NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 100.6 expectedGermany October ZEW survey current conditions -80.0 vs -74.8 expectedChina reportedly toughens process for firms to obtain rare earth magnet export licensesChina's Commerce Ministry: China hopes to resolve concerns through dialogueGermany September final CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimUK August ILO unemployment rate 4.8% vs 4.7% expectedFX option expiries for 14 October 10am New York cutToday's session was mainly driven by the risk-off sentiment that started around 4:00 am GMT after the Chinese Commerce Ministry said that it took countermeasures against five US-linked firms. The Chinese did say that they are hoping to resolve concerns through dialogue but they are not afraid of "fighting to the end" if US wants a trade war. In the markets we've seen classic risk-off moves with equities, oil, yields, crypto, copper and so on dropping throughout the session.The markets remain cautious considering that back in April it was the US that eventually had to back down. If that means that we need to wait for Trump to fold first and swallow his pride, then I'm afraid things could get worse before they get better.The other highlight of the session was the UK employment report. The data was once again soft with the unemployment rate ticking higher and the employment numbers disappointing forecasts. Moreover, average weekly earnings increased with wage growth remaining elevated and likely limiting BoE's response. Nonetheless, the markets increased BoE rate cut bets with two cuts now fully priced in by the end of 2026. The pound weakened across the board as a result. In the American session, the only highlight is Fed Chair Powell's speech although he's unlikely to change his stance given that we haven't got anything new in terms of economic data due to the US government shutdown. The focus remains solely on US-China headlines as this renewed trade war could have serious economic impacts. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

European trade commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, said that G7 finance ministers are arranging for a video call "pretty soon" to discuss the matter with it being a "critical concern". Sefcovic also mentioned that he will discuss the issue with US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, and will speak to his Chinese counterpart as early as next week.Meanwhile, Danish foreign minister Lars Rasmussen said that they could possibly look to team up with the US to turn the tables on China:"We also need to be realistic. This is actually an area of common interest with our friends in the U.S. If we stick together we can much better pressure China to act in a fair way."Well, the clock is ticking. But in the meantime, China will have no issues in returning to the more stringent process of allowing for rare earth exports as they had done back in April. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 100.8The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 2.0 points in September to 98.8. This was the first decline in three months, though it remains above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from August to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years.NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: "Optimism among small business owners decreased in September. While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations" This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewThe USD came under some pressure on Friday as the risk-off sentiment caused by Trump’s threat of substantially increasing tariffs on China weighed on Treasury yields. Over the weekend, we had more soothing comments from Trump and other US officials which triggered a recovery in risk sentiment. The positive mood weighed a bit on the greenback but eventually the risk mood deteriorated again as US Treasury Secretary Bessent poured some cold water on the weekend hype and the Chinese imposed special port fees on US related vessels as countermeasures against the US previous port fees. Domestically, nothing has changed for the US dollar as the US government shutdown continues to delay many key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front is likely to keep weighing on the greenback. The market pricing shifted more dovish after the latest US-China escalation with 48 bps of easing by year-end and 122 bps cumulatively by the end of 2026. The BLS announced last week that despite the shutdown, it will release the US CPI report on October 24, so that’s going to be a key risk event. In case we get hot data, we will likely see a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations with the December cut being priced out. Conversely, a soft report shouldn’t change much in terms of pricing, but it will likely weigh on the greenback anyway. This will of course be taken in context of the US-China relations by then. On the CHF side, nothing has changed. The SNB left interest rates steady and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting. SNB’s President Schlegel didn’t offer any forward guidance but he did say that the bar to cut rates further is very high and negative inflation prints in the short-term won’t be enough. The last Swiss inflation prints rebounded a bit but there’s a long way to go before breaching their 2% inflation limit. So, this leaves the CHF trading mostly based on the risk sentiment.USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF broke above the major downward trendline last week and extended the rally into the 0.8075 level before pulling back a bit and then selling off on Trump’s escalation. We can see that we have a major upward trendline now defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 0.8171 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the 0.7871 level next. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action. Again, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline, while the sellers will continue to step in around the 0.8072 level and look to increase the bearish bets on a break below the trendline.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline that’s acting as resistance. The sellers will likely continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsToday we have Fed Chair Powell speaking although he’s unlikely to change his stance given that we haven’t got anything new on the data front. For now, we know that only the US CPI will be published despite the shutdown, which is scheduled for Friday October 24. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -76.4Economic sentiment 39.3 vs 41.0 expectedPrior 37.3The readings are softer than estimated with the headline reaffirming that the present situation in Germany remains on the rocks. The good news at least is that investor morale is seen rising but ZEW notes that it is mostly just hopeful optimism in eyeing an upturn in the medium-term. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

As gold continues to hold at fresh record highs amid the sudden shifts in broader market sentiment, one can reasonably expect a lot more volatility spikes on profit-taking and dip buying among other things. And that's what we're seeing today. In early European trading, we saw gold fall off from a high of $4,179 to $4,090 in just a little over an hour. That before rising back up now to be up 0.6% on the day at $4,139:Meanwhile, silver has also bounced back modestly and is down just 0.7% on the day to $51.95. That after falling to a low of $50.93 with the high having touched $53.62 earlier in the day.At some point, a much more significant correction will beckon for both gold and silver. But for now at least, dip buyers are still showing that they have some appetite left in them. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.