Goldman Sachs lifted its price target on Cambricon to CNY 1,835, up from the current share price of 1,243.The bank cited three key drivers behind the upgrade:Rising capital expenditure from China’s cloud giants such as Tencent.Broader diversification of chipset platforms, including developments like DeepSeek 3.1.Continued investment in research and development. ---Cambricon Technologies is a Beijing-based, partially state-owned semiconductor firm founded in 2016 as a spin-off from the Chinese Academy of Sciencesspecializes in designing AI processors and GPGPUs for deep learning applications across cloud servers, edge devices, and intelligent terminalsnicknamed “China’s Nvidia” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato:Will establish appropriate environment for crypto assetsCrypto assets can also be part of diversified investments This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Nomura’s Global Markets Research team said Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone last Friday opens the door for further downside in the dollar against the yen. Powell’s remarks have raised the probability of a September rate cut, reinforcing the view that USD is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.“We have a higher conviction on our short USD/JPY trade,” the team wrote, reiterating a target of 142.00 by end-October. Nomura added that investor attention will also be on upcoming comments from Bank of Japan officials — including policy board member Junko Nakagawa, who is speaking on Thursday this week (Japan time) — for signals on whether the BOJ could lift rates before year-end, which would add to yen strength. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Hedge funds cut their bullish bets on crude oil to the lowest level in nearly 17 years, as the fading risk of fresh sanctions on Russian crude shifted focus back to oversupply concerns.CFTC data, reported via Bloomberg (gated) showed money managers’ net-long position in West Texas Intermediate futures fell by 19,578 lots to just 29,686 in the week to Tuesday — the smallest since October 2008.With geopolitical tensions easing and several agencies forecasting oil supply to outstrip demand later this year, sentiment turned bearish. The U.S. push for talks to end the war in Ukraine further reduced expectations of new sanctions on Russian crude, despite little real progress toward peace. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.The previous close was 7.1666The rate at 7.1161 is the strongest, for CNY, since November 6 last year. PBOC injected 288.4bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%266.5bn yuan mature todaynet 21.9bn yuan injection This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Pantheon Macroeconomics said Powell’s Friday remarks mark a clear change in tone from the Fed’s July minutes, which had stressed upside inflation risks. Powell now sees the “balance of risks” shifting, with weaker labor data the catalyst. July’s jobs report showed payroll growth averaging just 35k over three months, down sharply from 168k in 2024.Powell acknowledged tariffs remain a key inflation concern, but argued that softening labor markets limit workers’ wage bargaining power, reducing the risk of tariff-driven inflation becoming entrenched.Pantheon expects hiring weakness to push unemployment above the Fed’s 4.5% year-end forecast, reaching closer to 4.75% by late 2025. It sees tariff-driven inflation largely contained to goods and projects the Fed will cut rates by 25bp in September, November, and December — more easing than markets currently price in.---Earlier:investingLive Americas FX news wrap 22 Aug: Markets cheer on Powell tilt (for now)Goldman Sachs - Powell warns of rising job market risks as GDP growth slowsFed’s Musalem: More data needed before deciding on September rate cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Italy’s Deputy PM Antonio Tajani urged the ECB to cut rates further and consider new QE to help European industry. He also called for easier SME credit and warned the euro’s strength against the dollar is undermining competitiveness.Quite the dove!--Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said the ECB should take a more active role in supporting European industry, beyond targeted aid. He pointed to the euro’s strength against the dollar as a key drag on competitiveness and argued that with inflation steady at 2%, there’s scope to cut rates further — from 2% to 1.5%, 1%, or even zero.Tajani also suggested reviving a form of quantitative easing, with the ECB purchasing government bonds as it did during the Covid crisis. In addition, he proposed easing access to credit for small and medium-sized enterprises by temporarily raising the “SME Supporting Factor” threshold from €2.5 million to €5 million via a fast-track procedure.- The European Central Bank next meet on September 11 and an 'on hold' decision is widely expected. Earlier:Reuters cite five sources as saying the ECB may begin cutting rates again later in 2025ECB’s Kazaks: Rates in ‘good place’ as officials shift focus to monitoring economyVon der Leyen: EU–US trade pact for averting escalation, easing risks for euro, exportersECB's Lagarde: Eurozone jobs resilient as inflation falls with little cost to employmentICYMI - ECB’s Nagel: ‘High bar’ for further rate cuts with eurozone in equilibrium This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Germany's Bundesbank President (and European Central Bank Governing Council member) Nagel said the ECB faces a “high bar” for another rate cut, with inflation at target and policy already eased. He expects rates to stay on hold in September, downplaying German weakness while stressing the importance of central bank independence.-Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said it would take a major shift in the economic outlook for the European Central Bank to cut rates again. In an interview with Bloomberg TV at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, he said the euro zone is currently in “equilibrium,” with both inflation and policy rates at 2%, and he sees little justification for further easing after eight quarter-point cuts.Nagel’s remarks reinforce expectations that the Governing Council will hold steady again in September, after leaving rates unchanged in July. He downplayed a sharp drop in German GDP in Q2, noting that while 2025 may mark a third recession in as many years, growth should return in 2026 as public spending rises.He also stressed the importance of central bank independence, calling it “the DNA of good monetary policy,” as questions grow around political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Speaking on Saturday, Lagarde hailed Europe’s labor market for withstanding inflation and aggressive rate hikes, with jobs up 4.1% since 2021. She said disinflation has come at “remarkably low cost” to employment, though warned the unusual mix of supportive forces may not last.-European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Europe’s labor market has held up far better than expected despite soaring inflation and steep interest-rate hikes in recent years. Speaking at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, she noted that employment grew by 4.1% between late 2021 and mid-2025 — almost matching GDP growth and roughly double what economic models would have predicted.Lagarde credited both global and domestic factors: easing supply constraints, falling energy costs, fiscal support, delayed wage adjustments, and changes in working hours and labor supply. She argued that this resilience allowed inflation to fall back sharply “at a remarkably low cost” to jobs.With inflation projected to settle at 2% by 2027, policymakers have paused after eight rate cuts, holding the deposit rate at 2% in July. Bundesbank head Joachim Nagel recently said the bar for more action is “high.” Lagarde avoided giving signals on the next rate move, instead cautioning that the unusual mix of forces that preserved jobs may not last, especially as demographics and labor hoarding weigh on productivity — even as technology and AI could offset those pressures. Earlier:Reuters cite five sources as saying the ECB may begin cutting rates again later in 2025ECB’s Kazaks: Rates in ‘good place’ as officials shift focus to monitoring economy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

EU chief von der Leyen defended the bloc’s trade pact with Washington as “strong, if not perfect,” saying it prevents a damaging transatlantic trade war. She highlighted that Europe’s single 15% tariff rate gives exporters relatively favourable U.S. access, even as Brussels pushes for further cuts.-European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen defended the EU’s recent trade deal with the United States, saying it provides stability and prevents a damaging trade war. Writing in Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, she argued that a confrontation with Washington would have only benefitted Russia and China, while harming European workers, consumers, and industry.Von der Leyen acknowledged the pact isn’t perfect but said its 15% “all inclusive” tariff structure offers European firms better market access than what other U.S. partners face. The agreement, struck with President Trump in Scotland last month, has faced criticism within Europe from lawmakers and industry groups, though both sides have begun steps to formalize it.The deal includes reductions in U.S. tariffs on European cars and may open the way for discounts on steel and aluminum. EU officials still want cuts on wine and spirits, which were left out. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also backed the accord, noting that while tariffs will weigh on Germany’s economy, the outcome is preferable to a full-blown trade war. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Latvian central bank governor, and therefore a Governing Council member of the European Central Bank, Martin Kazaks said policy is now in a “good place,” with rates on hold and inflation at target. He argued another cut isn’t needed, as growth risks from tariffs and Chinese imports are balanced by signs of manufacturing recovery and cooling wages.-European Central Bank Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said the ECB has entered a phase where policymakers can stand back and observe the economy, rather than needing to steer it more aggressively. With inflation at the 2% target and no major changes since June’s projections, he argued there’s no need for further immediate rate cuts.The ECB ended its year-long easing cycle in July after eight reductions, leaving the deposit rate at 2%. Officials have since signalled they are likely to hold again in September. Kazaks noted that while tariffs of 15% on EU exports to the U.S. will drag on growth and cheap Chinese goods pose risks, business surveys show signs of a manufacturing recovery and wages are slowing as expected — supporting confidence that inflation will remain at target.He added that inflation will likely undershoot early next year before rebounding, consistent with ECB forecasts that see it dipping to 1.6% in 2026 before returning to 2% in 2027. Traders’ expectations for no further cuts this year align with this outlook. Kazaks downplayed the impact of an additional 25bp cut, saying it would be more symbolic “insurance” than a meaningful policy shift.-Earlier:Reuters cite five sources as saying the ECB may begin cutting rates again later in 2025European Central Bank next meet on September 11 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BOE Governor Bailey warned the UK faces an “acute challenge” to boost growth as weak labor participation and poor productivity weigh on potential output. With the economy’s “speed limit” lowered to just over 1%, he said low potential growth leaves Britain prone to inflation and complicates monetary policy.--Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the UK faces an “acute challenge” in raising its long-term growth potential due to weak labor force participation. Speaking at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, he noted that unemployment is not the issue, but rather the drop in people willing or able to work. Unless participation rises, productivity growth will need to carry more of the burden.Bailey described the situation as “a pretty sad story for the UK,” pointing to the combination of weak productivity and declining participation since the pandemic. The BOE has cut its estimate of the UK’s potential growth rate to just above 1%, a level that leaves the economy more vulnerable to inflation. That challenge was evident in the Bank’s recent rate cut to 4%, where it still flagged inflation risks.He added that officials had expected rising unemployment after Covid, but instead saw labor supply shrink, a dynamic that fuelled inflation persistence and kept policy tight for longer. While labor demand is now starting to fall, Bailey warned the growth outlook remains constrained. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ueda flags tight labour market as structural, reinforcing BOJ’s inflation challenge and keeping pressure on yen bears.-Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Japan could ease its chronic labor shortage by increasing full-time employment opportunities for women and expanding the role of foreign workers. Speaking at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, he noted that only about half of Japanese women are regular employees compared with 80% of men, and childcare support would need to expand to narrow that gap.Foreign workers make up just 3% of Japan’s labor force but contributed more than half of total labor force growth between 2023 and 2024, Ueda said, adding that further increases would require broad policy debate.He stressed that Japan’s shrinking, aging population has long pressured the economy, with nearly 30% of people aged 65 or older. While higher participation among women and seniors has helped offset demographic decline, Ueda said the room for further gains is limited. He warned that, absent a major economic downturn, Japan’s labor market will remain tight and continue pushing wages higher—one factor behind persistent inflation.-Recent data from Japan shows:Japan’s unemployment rate remained at 2.5% for a fourth consecutive month in June, 2.5% is the average over the past three yearsJapan’s consumer inflation stayed well above the BOJ’s 2% target even as price growth moderated, supporting market speculation that another rate hike may come this year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Euro steady as ECB seen holding in September; renewed rate-cut talk hinges on growth data and tariff drag later this year.-The European Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged in September, but officials may revisit the possibility of further cuts later in the year if economic conditions deteriorate, sources told Reuters.Christine Lagarde had signaled in July that the ECB was comfortable holding its key rate at 2%, effectively ending a year of rate cuts. Recent data show the euro zone economy is holding up better than expected, with inflation steady at the 2% target.U.S. tariffs on EU imports, set at 15% by the Trump administration, aligned with ECB expectations and avoided worst-case scenarios, reducing the case for an immediate cut. Still, the ECB’s forecasts assume another cut at some stage, and discussions could pick up again at the October and December meetings—especially if U.S. tariffs hit exports or the war in Ukraine drags on.While some see a chance of cuts as early as spring 2026, investors have turned more upbeat on the euro zone after summer surveys showed stronger business activity. But policymakers caution this may be temporary, with U.S. buyers front-loading orders to dodge tariffs.***The Bank next meet on September 11: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It's a light data calendar to open the new week. While we have New Zealand data the focus for Asia will be conirnued digestion of Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday that sent 'risk' higher:investingLive Americas FX news wrap 22 Aug: Markets cheer on Powell tilt (for now) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online ... prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.1720USD/JPY 146.85GBP/USD 1.3518USD/CHF 0.8015 USD/CAD 1.3825AUD/USD 0.6488NZD/USD 0.5858I'll be back real soon with weekend news headlines. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: PBoC MLF, UK Summer Bank Holiday, German Ifo (Aug), US National Activity (Jul)Tue: RBA Minutes, Riksbank Minutes, NBH Announcement, US CaseShiller (Jun)Wed: Australian CPI (Jul), Swiss Investor Sentiment (Aug)Thu: ECB Minutes, Swiss GDP (Q2), EZ Sentiment Survey (Aug), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2), US PCE (Q2)Fri: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Aug), Japanese Activity Data (Jul), German Retail Sales (Jul), French Prelim CPI (Aug), Spanish Flash CPI (Aug), German Unemployment (Aug), US PCE (Jul), Canadian GDP (Q2), University of Michigan Final (Aug)PBoC MLF (Mon): PBoC left the Loan Prime Rates unchanged for the third straight month—1-year at 3.00% and 5-year at 3.50%, matching full market consensus. Data continues to point to sluggish activity—factory output, retail sales, and new loan volumes remain weak. Policymakers are leaning on targeted structural tools, not broad-rate cuts, even as deflationary and credit-growth risks persist. Markets expect a hold on the MLF rate, in line with the unchanged LPR. It was also reported that the PBoC to inject CNY 600bln via one-year MLF loans on August 25th. ING notes, “The People’s Bank of China hasn’t made any adjustments to the 7-day reverse repo this month. Rather than direct rate cuts, policymakers recently moved to support credit activity in more targeted ways, with subsidies for consumer loans set to come into effect in September.”RBA Minutes (Tue):RBA will release the Minutes from its August 11th-12th meeting, where it provided no surprises and delivered a unanimously expected 25bps rate cut to lower the Cash Rate to 3.60% with the central bank's decision unanimous. RBA reiterated its language that inflation has continued to moderate and the outlook remains uncertain, as well as noted that maintaining price stability and full employment is the priority. RBA stated that underlying inflation will continue to moderate to around the midpoint of the 2–3% range, with the cash rate assumed to follow a gradual easing path, and it noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia. Furthermore, it stated the cut was due to underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3% range and labour market conditions easing slightly. The central bank also simultaneously released its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy which showed a downgrade to the estimate of Australia’s long-run productivity growth to 0.7% from 1.0% and with trend GDP growth now seen around 2.0%, down from 2.25%, while its forecasts were based on a technical assumption of the cash rate at 3.4% by end-2025, 2.9% by end-2026, and 3.1% by end-2027. Furthermore, RBA Governor Bullock continued to signal future cuts during the post-meeting press conference, where she stated there were no discussions of a larger rate cut, but noted that forecasts imply the Cash Rate might need to be lower for price stability, while she added the Board will take things meeting by meeting and did not rule out back-to-back rate cuts.Riksbank Minutes (Tue):Riksbank maintained its rates at 2.00%, in line with expectations. In terms of future rate policy, the Bank highlighted that there is “still some probability of a further interest rate cut this year” – this verbal guidance is in line with the current rate path laid out in June. As for recent data developments, the Bank highlighted that inflation has deviated “somewhat” from the forecast in June – rising more than expected, though it suggested the upturn is due to temporary factors. It also remained cautious on economic activity, highlighting that growth remained low and the labour market is not yet “showing any clear sign of improving”. In terms of analyst commentary, Danske Bank opines that should inflation develop in line with the Riksbank’s forecast, it could “open the door” for a cut in September. Analysts at SEB also put added focus on inflation dynamics, in particular August’s figure. Should that tick lower, SEB sees a cut in September, with another later in the year. Now we look ahead to the Riksbank Minutes next week, to see how “temporary” policymakers view inflation, and how they balance inflation/activity dynamics.Australian CPI (Wed): July Monthly CPI is expected to rise 0.5% M/M, lifting the annual rate to 2.3% Y/Y (prev. 1.9%), in line with market consensus (range 2.0–2.7%). June CPI printed at 0.2% M/M, 1.9% Y/Y, softer than both expectations and Westpac’s forecast, with a surprise -0.4% fall in electricity prices as retailers in some capitals cut charges or boosted discounts, alongside a smaller-than-expected rebate unwind. Westpac highlights upside risks to the July print, pointing to higher Default Market Offer (DMO) power bills and the ongoing removal of rebates. The RBA’s August SoMP projected headline inflation to climb above 3% in H2 before easing back, largely driven by electricity dynamics, with trimmed mean CPI at 2.7% Y/Y still at the top end of target. Markets will focus on whether July CPI confirms upside pressures or signals a contained rebound. A stronger-than-expected print could push back RBA easing expectations, with electricity costs remaining the key swing factor. ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Target currently sees a 36% chance of a 25bps cut at the 30th September meeting.NVIDIA Earnings (Wed):Nvidia reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday, 27th August, at 21:20BST/16:20EDT, and while close attention will be on the quarterly metrics, participants will be attentively focusing on any commentary surrounding the agreement struck with the US government that will see them take 15% of any China revenue. On this, KeyBanc expects Nvidia to post strong July-quarter results but may guide cautiously for October due to China-related risks. KeyBanc expects Nvidia to exclude China revenue from guidance amid pending license approvals, potential 15% AI export taxes, and pressure on Chinese firms to use local chips. Without China, guidance could miss consensus, though KeyBanc estimates China could add USD 2-3bln in sales. Despite this, the fundamentals for the tech behemoth remain strong, and as KeyBanc points out GPU supply rose 40% last quarter and should grow another 20% with Blackwell (B200) ramping, while the new Blackwell Ultra (B300) ships in October. Looking at the expectations, Q2 EPS is expected at USD 0.99 with revenue printing at USD 45.50bln. Looking at the breakdown, Data Centre is seen at USD 40.25bln, Gaming 3.9bln, Automotive 595.40mln, Professional Visualization 522mln, and OEM and other 112mln. Regarding some other key metrics, the gross profit margin is expected at 72% and operating expense at 4bln. In terms of forward guidance, the next quarter's (Q3) revenue is seen at USD 52.59bln, with EPS of USD 1.19, with FY revenue seen at 201.39bln and EPS of 4.37.ECB Minutes (Thu):As expected, the ECB stood pat on rates, keeping the deposit rate at 2%. The accompanying policy statement carried little of interest, noting that incoming information is broadly in line with the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the inflation outlook. Additionally, the statement repeated the Bank's meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach. At the follow-up press conference, when questioned about the recent EUR appreciation and VP de Guindos' recent remark about the complications that EUR/USD breaching 1.20 would bring, President Lagarde stated that the ECB does not target FX levels but is monitoring the situation. Thereafter, Bunds were sent lower after Lagarde stated that the ECB's baseline scenario from June still holds despite US President Trump threatening the EU with a 30% tariff rate. This statement, allied with Lagarde reiterating that policy remains in a good place, is suggestive that policymakers are not in a rush to adjust policy. This point was also underscored by the President emphasising that the ECB will not be swayed by a temporary undershoot in inflation (current 2026 forecast sees inflation at 1.6%), adding that inflation is still expected to stabilise at target over the medium term. Note, the decision was unanimous. Overall, given the lack of fireworks at the meeting and the data-watching approach of the ECB, the account of the meeting will likely pass with little in the way of fanfare.Tokyo CPI (Fri):Tokyo CPI for August is expected to slow to 2.6% Y/Y (prev. 2.9%), driven by softer energy prices, though fresh food remains firm. "Super-core" inflation (ex. fresh food and energy) is projected to stay above 3%, keeping underlying pressures elevated and reinforcing the BoJ’s case that prices are on a sustained path toward 2%. Markets will watch for stickiness in services inflation, with upside surprises feeding into expectations for a gradual policy shift. Markets currently price in no 25bps rate hikes for this year, with ~19bps baked in.Japanese Activity Data (Fri):July Industrial Production is seen at -1.2% M/M (prev. +2.1%), as tariff-related front-loading unwinds, although retail sales are expected to improve on the back of wage growth. Labour market conditions remain tight, with the unemployment rate steady at 2.5%. ING notes that resilient consumption and wage dynamics offset weakness in exports and production, painting a mixed picture for Q3 momentum.US PCE (Fri):While CPI rose in line with expectations in July (headline +0.2% M/M, core +0.3% M/M), PPI surged (headline and core were +0.9% M/M, above the expected +0.3%). Analysts noted that the PPI jump was driven by portfolio management prices, which came as a result of stock prices surging in the month, though air travel prices fell, while other components in the data that feed into core PCE (healthcare, insurance) saw only moderate increases. Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the rise in PPI has only limited implications for the July core PCE reading, but does suggest that the US tariffs are continuing to generate cost pressures in the supply chain, which consumers will shoulder soon. With the CPI and PPI readings in hand, Pantheon estimates that the core PCE deflator will rise by +0.26% M/M in July (vs 0.3% M/M in June), and this should lift the annual rate to 2.9% Y/Y from 2.8%. The FOMC's July meeting minutes, released this week (where almost all participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain rates between 4.25-4.5%), noted that participants think that higher tariffs were contributing to rising inflation, with goods price inflation increasing while services price inflation slowed. Many expected companies to pass tariff costs to customers, though current demand limited full pass-through. Some saw tariffs causing only a one-time price level rise, while others warned of persistently elevated inflation, difficult to separate from underlying trends. At the time of writing (before Powell's speech at Jackson Hole), money markets are pricing around a 70% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25bps on September 17th, though, through to the end of the year, are more or less discounting two full 25bps reductions. The Fed's June projections see core PCE rising to 3.1% Y/Y in 2025, cooling to 2.4% in 2026, and then to 2.1% in 2027.Canadian Q2 GDP (Fri):May's growth data showed GDP falling by 0.1% in the month, though StatsCan said it is projected to rebound +0.1% M/M in June, which should mean annualised growth in Q2 was likely at around 0.1%, just avoiding a contraction. The BoC is currently on hold, and the latest minutes revealed that some members felt they had already provided enough support for the economy, but others felt more support would likely be needed. Since then, the latest inflation report was slightly softer than expected, and participants started to slightly boost BoC rate cut bets with 24bps of easing priced by year-end, implying a 96% probability of a rate cut by year-end. The minutes noted that the economy appeared to have contracted in Q2 after robust Q1 growth. Much of the front-running activities unwound in Q2, resulting in a sharp drop in exports. The minutes also noted that overall consumption and government spending appear to have increased, while business and residential investment appear to have declined. Looking ahead, the BoC estimates that in the current tariff scenario, economic growth resumes in Q3 and inflation remains around 2%, while a de-escalation scenario would see growth rebound in Q3 with inflation below 2%. However, if tariffs were to escalate, the economy would fall into recession, and inflation would rise to 2.5%. Under all these forecasts, inflation is within the BoC's 1-3% target range; therefore, a drastic slowdown would likely embolden the case for further rate cuts from the BoC, with the board seemingly not too concerned about inflation, particularly with recent data coming in on the softer side.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

How I Hedge Long Term Stock Positions Into NVDA EarningsI am Itai Levitan. For years at ForexLive - now InvestingLive.com - I have helped investors and traders with various opinions around earnings and today I was thinking about the upcoming Nvidia earnings. This article is not a forecast on what may happen on Wed night and the Thursday right after the earnings, but it is about if and how an NVDA stock holder may want to consider risk mitigation before going into the earnings, as it is, by definition, a risky event, regardless of what you think of AI, AI revolutions and about what may be the best company in the world today. A company can kick ass and still come to bite your 'buy and hold' position, at its earnings. Experienced investors know exactly what I mean.As a more blunt perspective, one could argue that Nvidia has to almost impress God itself on the upcoming earnings in order to stage a meaningful upside guidance surprise that would merit many sharks buying even more stock at these elevated prices.But I am not going into what will happen. I am here to talk about risk management.If you believe in a company for the long run but you do not want a single report to punch a hole in your portfolio, this guide is for you.The goal is simple: stay invested, control downside, and let the upside take care of itself when the thesis is right.My Philosophy For NVDA Earnings Weeks - Options to ConsiderI separate my investment from my event risk. I can believe in the company and still buy insurance for a week.I choose finite risk, preplanned exits, and I write them down before I enter.I prefer simple structures I can manage during a fast market.I size small enough that an overnight gap does not force me to react emotionally.Options - the 5 minute primerCall - the right to buy shares at a set price by a set date.Put - the right to sell shares at a set price by a set date.Theta - time decay. Option buyers pay it, sellers collect it.Vega - sensitivity to implied volatility. Before earnings, IV tends to rise. After the release, IV often drops sharply. That drop is the IV crush.Assignment - short options can lead to getting shares called away or put to you. Always know your obligations and plan how you will respond.Two practical truths:Buying options into earnings is expensive, but it can be worth it for defined protection.Selling options into earnings benefits from IV crush, but can be dangerous if the move beats what the market priced in.Decision Map For A Long Term Holder of NVDA StockAsk three questions.Do I want a floor under my stock for the event windowYes - use a protective put, a put spread, or a collar.No - consider income only with a covered call or simply do nothing.Am I comfortable capping upside for a short windowYes - a collar is usually the most cost effective.No - use a protective put or a put spread so the upside stays open.Do I want a tactical overlay that can profit from a pre or post report dipYes - use a scaled short stock hedge with strict risk controls, or buy a short dated put.No - stick to insurance or income.My Core Playbook - from simple to more sophisticated1) Protective Put - the simplest insuranceWhat it isI keep my shares and buy a put so there is a floor below the market for the earnings window.Why I use itIt is clean and protects against overnight gaps.Trade offsI pay a premium up front. If the stock rallies, that premium can go to zero after the IV crush.How I choose itSame expiry that spans the report.Strike near the price where I would be uncomfortable without a hedge.Best forFirst time options users who want a safety net without capping upside.2) Put Spread - budget friendly insuranceWhat it isI buy one put and sell a second put at a lower strike in the same expiry.Why I use itIt reduces the cost versus a lone put and still protects a meaningful range.Trade offsProtection stops growing past the lower strike.Best forInvestors who want cost control and a defined floor for a defined drop.3) Covered Call - income to cushion a declineWhat it isI sell an out of the money call against shares I already own.Why I use itEarnings week IV is usually elevated. Premium helps cushion a dip and IV crush works for me.Trade offsUpside is capped past the call strike for that cycle. There is no formal floor.Best forHolders who are comfortable trimming if the stock surges. Choose a strike where you would not regret selling.4) Collar - a floor plus income, often near zero costWhat it isI buy a downside put and sell an upside call in the same expiration window. The call can pay for most or all of the put.Why I use itIt creates a defined range outcome for earnings week: I have a floor, and if we moon I have a planned sale.Trade offsUpside is capped for that expiry.Best forLong term holders who value risk reduction more than a one week moonshot.One example you can study on MarketChameleon MarketChameleon’s strategy screener often displays collars around earnings with payoff diagrams and probability ranges. It shows how the short call premium can offset the protective put cost and how your P&L behaves across end prices. If you want to explore live data and compare variations side by side, visit MarketChameleon.com. They advertise a 7 day free trial so you can try the tools and see whether a collar, a put spread, or a pure put best fits your plan. Or just get into the options world and educate yourself about something new. You probably won't regret it.5) Calendar or Diagonal Put Hedge - intermediateWhat it isI own a longer dated put for ongoing protection and sell a short dated put into the event to harvest IV crush.Why I use itIt stretches the dollar spent on hedging and keeps a durable umbrella over the position.Trade offsMore moving parts. I need to be comfortable rolling the short leg or handling assignment.Best forInvestors who want protection beyond a single report and are willing to monitor the short leg.6) Selling Premium Without Stock - advanced onlyWhat it isShort straddles or iron condors try to earn from the market overpricing the move.Why I rarely recommend it to first timersLeaders like NVDA sometimes move more than implied. Losses can grow fast.Learn defined risk first, then graduate to premium selling if it matches your temperament.Tactical Overlay - the 3 to 1 short idea for NVDA (insurance, not speculation) I shareSometimes I add a temporary short overlay to blunt exposure or to seek incremental profit on a pullback. On the 12 hour NVDA chart I shared, the structure is intentionally simple. To clarify: This is a simple short, and does not have anything to do with options. Still, those that play options may be interested in my opinion where NVDA might possible drift down to, in case it is hit on earnings (or meets a sell-off right after a possible last bull trap after an immediate post earnings spike)Entry near $180.15Stop near $188.60Target near $154.82Risk to reward is roughly 1 to 3 because the risk per share is small relative to the distance to the targetHow a long term holder can apply itIf I own 100 shares and want a 50 percent hedge, I short 50 shares using that bracket.If price rallies to my stop, I close the short and keep my core long.If price trades down into the target zone, I cover the short and reassess whether I want to keep protection for the next leg.Two safety notesShort stock has theoretically unlimited risk if the stock gaps above the stop. Options can cap that risk. If I want the cap, I buy a cheap out of the money call against the short.Overnight gaps can skip stop orders. I size the hedge so a bad gap is survivable.How I pick expirations and strikesCover the event - expiry must span the report and the immediate reaction.Define the floor - protective put or the upper strike of a put spread should sit where a drop would change my risk tolerance.If I sell a call - I choose a level where I would be happy to trim. With a collar, the higher I push the call, the less it pays for the put.Premium budget - I set a quarterly hedging budget. That discipline prevents me from chasing protection emotionally at the worst moment.Sizing and execution - quick rulesFirst cycle, size small. Learn the workflow.Use limit orders.If I am new, I hedge in round numbers - for example, 1 put per 100 shares owned.For a short overlay, hedge 25 to 50 percent of the position, not 100 percent, unless I am very experienced.Write the exit plan before entry: when to take profits, when to roll, when to cut.What I do right after the announcementIf the stock drops and my put or put spread gained - I harvest some of the gain or roll the hedge lower if I still want coverage. I do not let a large option gain decay back to zero without a reason.If the stock pops and I sold a call or used a collar - if I want to keep the shares, I buy back or roll the call. If I am happy to trim, I let assignment do the selling for me at expiration.If I used the short overlay - I respect my stop. If it worked, I reduce or close the short into the zone and decide whether I want a new hedge for the next phase.Mistakes I see beginners makeBuying puts too far out of the money to make them cheap - they often do not hedge enough.Letting earnings week options linger without a plan - IV crush drains them fast.Selling covered calls too close to the money when the real goal is to hold - choose a strike you can live with.Oversizing the short hedge - gaps happen.Quick selection guideI want the simplest safety net with no upside cap - Protective put.I want cost controlled insurance - Put spread.I want near zero net cost and accept a cap for one cycle - Collar.I want a tactical play with a strict bracket - Partial short overlay with a protective call if I want defined risk.The Mini options glossaryCall - right to buy at a set price. Put - right to sell at a set price. Theta - time decay. Vega - sensitivity to implied volatility. IV crush - volatility drop after a known event, like the upcoming Nvidia earnings this Wed, 27 August, AMC (after market close)Assignment - delivery of shares when short options finish in the money.Final word before Nvidia earnings on Wed, and where to continue learningMy approach is about preparation, not prediction. I let my long term thesis work, and am a believer in the medium term (next couple of years) at Nvidia. And think the company is amazing. But I learned from my experience that earnings is a wild card, and I may use options or a small tactical hedge to keep earnings week from dictating my emotions.If you want to explore live chains, probability cones, and ready made strategy scans, visit MarketChameleon.com. Their awesome platform shows collars, put spreads, and other hedges with clear payoff diagrams, and they advertise a 7 day free trial so you can evaluate whether the tools give you an edge.Education only - not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Always confirm product details, tax rules, and your personal constraints before trading. Visit investingLive.com for additional views. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

US major indices cheer on the Powell speechFitch affirms the US a AA+ with the outlook stable.Russia's Putin: There is a light in the end of the tunnel in Russia-US relationsWTI crude oil futures settled at $63.66More Trump News: Thought Canada removing retaliatory tariffs was wise.Baker Hughes oil rig count -1 at 411FHFA Director Pulte: I will be referring 2 more people this afternoon for mortgage fraudMajor European indices close higher on the dayCleveland that Pres. Hammack: I heard from Powell that the Chair is openmindedCanada is a set to remove retaliatory tariffs on many US productsTrump: I will fire Fed Governor Cook if she does not resignA summary by topic of the speech from Fed chair PowellThe full text of the Fed Chair Powell speech at Jackson HoleFed Powell: Framework calls for a balanced approach. May warrant policy adjustmentECB's Nagel: Expects a micro recession in GermanyFed's Collins: Growth has been slowing but economic fundamentals are relatively solidEx Fed Pres. Parker Harkers: The data is fuzzy. It is not crystal clear.Canada June retail sales 1.5% vs versus 1.5% expectedUBS Global Wealth Management bumps up S&P 500 target for the yearinvestingLive European markets wrap: Jackson Hole wait almost overFed Chair Jerome Powell delivered his highly anticipated address at the Jackson Hole symposium, offering markets fresh insight into the central bank’s policy stance heading into the September FOMC meeting. His remarks acknowledged a “curious balance” in the labor market, persistent though tariff-driven inflation pressures, and the Fed’s ongoing challenge of balancing its dual mandate. Powell struck a tone that leaned cautiously dovish, leaving the door open to rate cuts while stressing that decisions remain firmly anchored to incoming data and the evolving economic outlookKey HighlightsDoor to September rate cut opened Powell suggested the Fed may consider cutting rates next month, noting both labor demand and supply are slowing. While he stopped short of committing to a move, his tone leaned more dovish.Labor market risks rising Job growth has weakened, with risks of a faster rise in unemployment. Powell stressed the balance of risks has shifted, putting employment on more fragile footing.Tariff-driven inflation likely temporary Tariffs are pushing up prices, but Powell emphasized that these effects are likely short-lived one-time shifts, not a lasting inflation dynamic. Still, he flagged risks from potential wage–price spirals or rising expectations.Fed remains data-driven and independent Powell reaffirmed that the Fed’s path is not preset, with all decisions based on incoming data. He also underscored the Fed’s independence amid external political pressures.Later, Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) struck a more hawkish/less dovish tone than markets took from Powell. She emphasized that inflation remains too high and continues to pressure households, requiring the Fed to keep policy mostly restrictive. While she noted the Fed is only modestly restrictive and close to neutral, she stressed that the focus must remain squarely on bringing inflation back toward target. Hammack said she is open-minded going into September, with more data to assess, but underscored that a significant weakening in unemployment would be needed to justify easier policy. For now, she views risks as tilted toward persistence in inflation and signaled caution against easing too quickly.Although the Fed chair laid the pipe for a cut, US jobs data and US inflation data are to come. The market did start to price in more of a cut. With the futures now pricing in a 90% chance of a cut in September.US stocks moved sharply higher. Prior to the jump, the NASDAQ index was threatening to make a break below and away from its 200-hour moving average earlier this week (at 21169) and indeed did trade below that moving average level this week. However, with today's gains the price surged back above that key moving average level and also back above its 100-hour moving average at 21368. The buyers are back in job control.Despite the gains today, the NASDAQ index still closed the lower for the week (-0.58%). The S&P and Dow industrial average did close higher with the Dow industrial average rising by 1.53%. The S&P had a modest gain of 0.27%. The small-cap Russell 2000 of the back of a 3.86% rise today close the week up 3.298%.European equities closed the session higher across the board, extending gains into the week. The German DAX rose 0.29%, the French CAC gained 0.40%, and the UK FTSE 100 advanced 0.13%, finishing at a new record high. Southern Europe led the day, with Spain’s Ibex up 0.61% and Italy’s FTSE MIB climbing 0.69%, both settling at 17–18 year highs. For the week, momentum was also positive: the DAX added 0.02%, the CAC 0.58%, the FTSE 100 2.0%, the Ibex 0.78%, and the FTSE MIB 1.54%, underscoring broad strength in European marketsUS yields move lower with the shorter end influence the most.2 year yield 3.694%, -9.8 basis points 5 year yield 3.757%, -10.2 basis points10 year yield 4.253%, -7.8 basis points30 year yield 4.876% -4.7 basis pointsThe US dollar moved sharply to the downside along with the lower yields in the expectations of Fed cuts.EUR -1.0%GBP -0.98%JPY -0.83%CHF -0.92%CAD -0.60%AUD -1.07%NZD -0.86% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Major US stock indices moved sharply higher with the flow of funds heading into the small-cap Russell 2000 leading the way with a gain of 3.86%. The gain was the largest for the index since April 9.The 3 major indices also closed higher with the:Dow industrial average up 846.24 points or 1.89%. That's the largest gain since May 12. The Dow industrial average closed at a record level.S&P index rose 96.74 points or 1.52% at 6466.91. That was its largest gain since May 27NASDAQ index rose by 1.88% per its largest one-day gain since August 4Looking at the components for the S&P, the consumer discretionary was the strongest gain of 3.19%. Low consumer Staples was the only sector with a decline. It fell -0.35%.Consumer Discretionary (S5COND): +3.19%Energy: +1.99%Communication services (S5TELS): +1.87%Materials (S5MATR): +1.70%Financials (SPF): +1.65%Industrials (S5INDU): +1.62%Real Estate (S5REAS): +1.62%Information Technology (S5INFT): +1.32%Health Care (S5HLTH): +0.82%Utilities (S5UTIL): +0.53%Consumer Staples (S5CONS): -0.35%For the trading week, the gain today in the NASDAQ could not erase the earlier losses for the week. Both the S&P and Dow industrial average did close in positive territory. The Russell 2000 was the biggest gainer for the week.:Dow industrial average rose 1.53%S&P index rose 0.27%NASDAQ index fell -0.58%Russell 2000 rose +3.298% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.