Summary:Fair Work Commission to abolish junior pay rates for 18–20-year-olds Around 500,000 workers set to benefit across retail, fast food and pharmacies Pay increases to be phased in over up to four years from December Junior rates to remain in place for minors under 18 Decision removes “discounted” wages for young adult workers Seen as a major structural change to Australia’s wage frameworkAustralia’s Fair Work Commission has ruled to abolish junior pay rates for workers aged 18 to 20 across key service sectors, marking a significant shift in the country’s wage-setting framework.The decision, which affects employees in the retail, fast food and pharmacy industries, will remove discounted wage rates for young adults, aligning their pay more closely with standard award levels. The changes will be introduced gradually, with the first adjustments scheduled to take effect from December and a full phase-in period extending up to four years.Under the current system, junior pay rates apply to workers under the age of 21, with 18-year-olds earning around 70% of the full award rate, rising incrementally to 90% for 20-year-olds. The commission determined that such discounted rates are no longer appropriate for adult workers, effectively redefining how young employees are treated within Australia’s industrial relations system.The ruling is expected to benefit around half a million workers, based on available labour force data, and represents one of the most significant changes to wage structures in decades. However, junior rates will remain in place for workers under the age of 18, with the commission choosing not to alter pay settings for minors.The decision follows a formal review of junior wage provisions under several major industry awards, including the General Retail, Fast Food and Pharmacy Awards. It reflects a broader shift toward equity in wage outcomes, particularly for younger workers who are legally adults but have historically been paid below standard rates.While the phased implementation may limit immediate cost pressures for businesses, the changes are expected to gradually lift labour costs across affected sectors, particularly those with a high concentration of younger employees. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

We had CPI data earlier:Japan Tokyo Core CPI 1.7% y/y , below expected and prior both 1.8%Now retail and industry:I'll have more to come on this separately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I'll have more to come on this separately. ADDED, here: Tokyo inflation cools further but underlying price pressures remain intactIn brief, less pressure on the BoJ to hike with these numbers:Tokyo area March core CPI rises at slowest pace since April 2024Tokyo area March core-core CPI rises at slowest pace since March 2025Tokyo area March overall CPI rises at slowest pace since March 2022 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence hits fresh record low Inflation expectations surge to a new record high Households increasingly pessimistic on economic outlook Cost-of-living pressures remain dominant concern Weak sentiment persists despite resilient labour market Data reinforces upside inflation risks for RBAAustralian consumer confidence has fallen to another record low, while inflation expectations have climbed to a new record high, underscoring the growing pressure on households and the challenge facing policymakers.The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan survey showed sentiment deteriorating further, with consumers increasingly pessimistic about both their personal financial outlook and broader economic conditions. Persistent cost-of-living pressures and higher interest rates continue to weigh heavily on households, driving confidence deeper into negative territory.At the same time, inflation expectations surged to their highest level on record, marking a significant development for the Reserve Bank of Australia. The rise suggests households increasingly expect price pressures to remain elevated, raising the risk that inflation becomes more entrenched through changes in behaviour such as wage demands and spending patterns.The jump in expectations comes amid a renewed energy-driven inflation shock linked to the Middle East conflict, adding to existing domestic price pressures. This combination is particularly concerning for policymakers, as second-round effects — where higher costs feed into broader prices — become more likely when expectations shift higher.Despite the sharp deterioration in sentiment, the labour market remains relatively resilient, creating a disconnect between current economic conditions and consumer perceptions. However, persistently weak confidence poses downside risks to household consumption, a key pillar of economic growth.For the RBA, the data presents a clear policy tension. While weak consumer confidence would typically argue for caution, the surge in inflation expectations strengthens the case for maintaining a restrictive stance. With the central bank already signalling it is not looking to cut rates, the focus remains on ensuring inflation expectations do not become unanchored. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:UK shop price inflation ticks up to 1.2% y/y in March (prev. 1.1%) Retailers warn Iran war is beginning to lift supply chain costs Food inflation eases slightly, non-food prices turn positive BRC flags risk of further inflation from energy and logistics pressures New labour and food regulations seen adding to cost pressures BoE watching food prices closely as inflation expectations riseUK shop price inflation edged higher in March, with retailers warning that rising costs linked to the Middle East conflict are beginning to feed through supply chains and could push prices higher in the months ahead.Data from the British Retail Consortium showed shop price inflation rose to 1.2% year-on-year, up from 1.1% in February, though still slightly below its recent three-month average. The increase comes shortly after the outbreak of the Iran war, with early signs that higher energy and transport costs are starting to impact retailers.Food price inflation eased modestly to 3.4% from 3.5% previously, driven in part by lower dairy prices. However, non-food prices moved back into positive territory, rising 0.1% after a decline in February, suggesting broader pricing pressures may be stabilising or beginning to rebuild.Retailers warned that the evolving geopolitical situation poses upside risks to inflation, as higher input and logistics costs work their way through supply chains. While firms are attempting to absorb some of these pressures, the industry expects that not all cost increases can be contained.Beyond geopolitical factors, the sector is also facing domestic cost pressures, including new labour market measures and regulations tied to healthier food standards, both of which are expected to raise operating expenses.The data will be closely monitored by the Bank of England, which has emphasised the importance of food prices in shaping consumer inflation expectations. Recent surveys suggest expectations have risen to their highest levels since 2023, increasing the risk that temporary price shocks become more persistent.While the current increase in shop price inflation remains modest, the combination of geopolitical disruption and domestic cost pressures points to a more challenging inflation outlook ahead, particularly if energy prices remain elevated. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil risk premium likely to rise sharply, especially with tanker involvement and spill risk. Markets will focus on whether attacks hit export infrastructure or disrupt Hormuz flows. Expect volatility across oil, gold and risk assets.Summary:Multiple attacks reported across Gulf region, including Dubai, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia Oil tanker struck at Dubai port, fire reported; no casualties Kuwait warns of potential oil spill following tanker attack Saudi Arabia intercepts four ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh Drone strikes and interception debris reported in Dubai; minor injuries Air raid sirens activated in Bahrain Escalation points to widening regional conflict and elevated energy riskA series of coordinated attacks across the Gulf has heightened fears of a broader regional escalation in the Iran conflict, with strikes reported in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain.Kuwait’s state news agency said a giant oil tanker was targeted in an attack at Dubai port, triggering a fire onboard the vessel. Authorities confirmed that there were no casualties, though damage assessments are ongoing. Officials also warned of a potential oil spill in surrounding waters, raising concerns about environmental and supply disruptions.The incident in Dubai appears to form part of a wider wave of attacks. The Saudi Ministry of Defence said its air defences intercepted and destroyed four ballistic missiles launched toward the Riyadh region, underscoring the continued threat to critical infrastructure in the Gulf’s largest economy.In the UAE, authorities reported drone strikes and the fallout from air defence interceptions, including debris that caused a fire in a residential structure in Dubai’s Al Badia area, leaving several people with minor injuries. Meanwhile, air raid sirens were activated in Bahrain, signalling heightened alert levels across the region.The developments mark a significant intensification of hostilities, with attacks spanning multiple countries and targeting both energy infrastructure and civilian areas. The Gulf region, home to key oil export facilities and shipping routes, remains highly sensitive to such disruptions.Markets will be closely watching for further confirmation of the scale and coordination of the attacks, as well as any damage to energy infrastructure or shipping flows. The risk of supply disruptions, particularly if incidents spread to critical chokepoints or export terminals, is likely to keep geopolitical risk premia elevated across oil and broader commodity markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:FT reports (gated) broker for US Defence Secretary Hegseth explored defence ETF investment pre-Iran strike Morgan Stanley approached BlackRock over multimillion-dollar allocation Target fund focused on defence contractors benefiting from rising military spending Investment did not proceed due to platform availability constraints Timing likely to raise scrutiny given Hegseth’s central role in Iran campaign No suggestion of wrongdoing, but optics likely to draw attentionA broker acting for US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth explored a multimillion-dollar investment in a defence-focused exchange-traded fund in the weeks leading up to the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, according to a Financial Times report.The broker, at Morgan Stanley, is said to have approached BlackRock in February regarding a potential allocation into its Defense Industrials Active ETF, a fund designed to capture growth opportunities in companies benefiting from increased defence spending. The inquiry was flagged internally at BlackRock, according to people familiar with the matter, although the investment ultimately did not proceed.The ETF in question holds major US defence contractors, including RTX, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, alongside data and defence technology firms such as Palantir. These companies are closely tied to US government spending and are often viewed as beneficiaries of rising geopolitical tensions and military activity.The transaction did not go ahead as the fund was not yet available for purchase through Morgan Stanley’s platform at the time. It remains unclear whether alternative defence-related investments were subsequently pursued.The reported approach comes as Hegseth has played a prominent role in shaping US policy toward Iran and has been among the most vocal proponents of military action. The timing of the investment interest, shortly before the launch of strikes, is likely to attract scrutiny, particularly given the direct link between defence sector performance and government policy decisions.While there is no indication of any wrongdoing, such situations often raise questions around the intersection of public office and financial market exposure, especially in sectors directly influenced by geopolitical developments.The report also reflects a broader trend of heightened attention on trading activity ahead of major policy or military decisions, as markets increasingly respond to geopolitical catalysts in real time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures settle at $102.88. That is up $3.24 or 3.25%. The close above $100 is the 1st since July 2020 and the highest close since July 11, 2011.Crude oil today is continuing to be driven by escalating geopolitical risk tied to the Iran conflict and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. Rising tensions—including threats to energy infrastructure by Pres. Trump, Houthi involvement, and shifting military strategy—are keeping a strong risk premium in prices. At the same time, mixed signals from U.S. officials and Iran on negotiations versus escalation are creating volatility, with the market balancing potential supply disruption against the possibility of an eventual reopening of the strait.The Houthis (Ansar Allah) are a Yemen-based militant and political group that emerged in the 1990s and now control large parts of northern Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa. They are widely seen as aligned with Iran and have become a key player in broader Middle East tensions. Positioned near the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a critical global shipping chokepoint—the Houthis have used drones, missiles, and naval tactics to target commercial vessels, claiming links to Israel. These attacks have disrupted shipping routes, increased costs, and added a risk premium to global energy markets. Despite being a regional force, their actions have outsized global impact, influencing oil prices, trade flows, and geopolitical risk sentiment as their involvement raises the potential for wider conflict.The price is closing below the 61.8% of the move down from the March high to the March low at 103.15. This retracement will be a barometer for the short term for buyers and sellers.Brent crude futures settle at $112.78 up $0.21 or 0.19%. Brent crude, on the other hand, is a specific type of crude oil sourced from the North Sea and serves as one of the main global pricing benchmarks, used to price a large portion of the world’s oil. While “crude oil” refers to the broad category, Brent is a standardized reference point that reflects international supply and demand conditions, which is why traders often compare it with other benchmarks like WTI to gauge regional price differences and market dynamics. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The story so far reads like something out of a bad thriller: a misconfigured content management system, 3,000 unsecured documents, and the accidental exposure of what Anthropic now confirms is the most capable AI model it has ever built. Fortune broke the story last Thursday. By Friday's open, cybersecurity stocks were in free-fall. CrowdStrike alone lost roughly $15 billion in market cap in a single session. The catalyst wasn't an earnings miss, a product failure, or a CEO departure, it was a draft blog post sitting on an unsecured URL. What is Mythos? Claude Mythos — internally codenamed "Capybara" — is a new tier of model that sits above Anthropic's current flagship Opus line. The leaked draft describes it as larger and more intelligent than anything the company has shipped. Anthropic confirmed this much, calling it "a step change" in reasoning, coding, and cybersecurity capabilities. The key detail that spooked the market: the draft warns that Mythos is "far ahead of any other AI model in cyber capabilities" and signals an incoming generation of models that can find and exploit software vulnerabilities faster than human defenders can patch them. Anthropic itself is reportedly warning senior government officials that large-scale AI-assisted cyberattacks become substantially more likely this year. The fear is that the new generation of models will have the capability to break the internet, or at least anything that needs to secure data. Traditional cybersecurity vendors — CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Zscaler, Okta — command premium multiples because they sit on proprietary threat telemetry and years of accumulated detection logic. If a general-purpose frontier model can replicate or exceed that capability at scale, investors are right to question the durability of those margins. Raymond James analyst Adam Tindle outlined several risks worth highlighting: compression of traditional defensive advantages, rising attack complexity that pushes up the cost to defend, and the possibility of wholesale shifts in how security budgets are allocated. "We read this as having the potential to become the ultimate hacking tool, and one that can elevate any ordinary hacker into a nation-state adversary," Stifel analyst Adam Borg in a research note on Friday.The other side of the trade — and the bull case for spending — is that this forces enterprises to modernize their defences immediately. The big cybersecurity names have also been given early looks at Mythos to both prepare and evaluate what they find. Ultimately, it could add to their moat and a big reason for the major bounce in security stocks today is that Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora bought $10m in shares last week.Here's where it gets more interesting from a cross-asset perspective. Mythos doesn't land in isolation. It lands in a market that is already trying to reprice the velocity of AI disruption across all of software. For macro traders, the AI capex cycle is the other thread to pull. Mythos is described as extremely compute-intensive and expensive to run — Anthropic says it's working on efficiency before any broad release. That's bullish for the picks-and-shovels trade: NVDA, the hyperscalers, power infrastructure. If the next generation of models requires substantially more compute, the capital spending cycle has further to run even as the downstream beneficiaries face disruption. We also can't ignore the geopolitical overlay. Anthropic has been blacklisted by the Trump administration after setting limits on military use of its models, and is now in litigation with the federal government. Mythos arriving during that standoff is a complication. If the model is genuinely as powerful in offensive cyber capabilities as described, the question of who gets access — and who doesn't — becomes a national security issue.The competitive angle OpenAI reportedly finished pre-training its own frontier model, codenamed "Spud," around the same time this leak hit. Both companies are reportedly positioning for IPOs later this year. The timing of the Mythos leak — whether genuinely accidental or not — couldn't be more combustible. This is going to be a theme for the rest of 2026: frontier AI labs racing to demonstrate capability while trying to manage the political and regulatory consequences of that capability. The immediate question is how cybersecurity names trade this week as the story matures. Friday's sell-off was indiscriminate but the bounce today has been equally large. Longer term, watch for three things: First, Anthropic's release timeline. They've said they're giving cyber defence organisations early access before any general availability. How long that staged rollout takes matters enormously for how fast the threat landscape actually shifts. Second, the policy response. If Anthropic is genuinely warning officials that Mythos makes large-scale attacks more likely, there is going to be pressure for export controls, access restrictions, or some form of licensing regime for frontier cyber models. That's a new regulatory risk for the entire AI sector. Finally, there has been no shortage of hype around a 'step change' in models and we've seen it so many times before. But if it's true and we are getting a new generation of truly superior models, that further extends the ceiling of what AI can do and how disruptive it is for the economy, and ultimately, how useful it will be. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Israel's Channel 12 reports that Netanyahu's government proposed to Trump that they should strike Iran's energy infrastructure to accelerate the collapse of the regime.The report says Israeli officials have proposed a plan to Trump alleging there is a window of opportunity to topple the Iranian regime through the financial crash caused by potential strikes on energy infrastructure.That's certainly not helping sentiment and that kind of crash might be the thing to topple a few countries' governments, especially if Iran makes good on threats to hit energy infrastructure in the region in response.Stock markets are now negative on the day with the S&P 500 down 10 points after climbing by 50 premarket. WTI crude oil is up $3.82 to $103.46, near the highs of the day.A separate Y-Net report says that whatever the US decides on dealing with Iran will be acceptable to Tel Aviv. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

ECBs Stournaras is on the wires saying: ECB would react to a 2nd round of price effects from oil shockshe conflict in Middle East be protracted, then ECB March baseline scenario is a riskLonger or may mean baseline no longer holds and makes a stagflation more likely.Here's a roundup of recent ECB commentary, dominated by the Middle East war and its inflationary implications:Christine Lagarde — PresidentAt the March 19 policy meeting, the Governing Council held rates unchanged, noting the Middle East war has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside inflation risks and downside growth risks. Then, at the March 25 "ECB and Its Watchers" conference, Lagarde signalled policymakers stand ready to hike rates even if the expected inflation jump proves temporary, saying that if the shock gives rise to a large but not-too-persistent overshoot of target, "some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted." She also stressed the ECB would not allow a repeat of the 2022 inflation episode.Luis de Guindos — Vice-PresidentSpeaking in Tallinn on March 26, de Guindos said the ECB is "closely monitoring" the economic effects of the Iran war and reaffirmed the bank is "unwavering" in its commitment to the 2% inflation target, adding that the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach allows the ECB to respond in an agile manner to the evolving outlookPhilip Lane — Chief EconomistAt the ECB Watchers conference on March 25, Lane highlighted companies' price-hike expectations and wages for new hires as key inflation indicators the ECB will be closely watching as it assesses whether the energy shock feeds through into broader price pressures.Isabel Schnabel — Executive BoardSchnabel delivered a guest lecture at the University of Zurich on March 28, with slides published on the ECB's website. She has broadly been aligned with the hawkish pivot narrative; the ECB's institutional memory of the 2022 energy crisis and the discrediting of "team transitory" means the bank will talk hawkish even if the energy shock proves short-lived. Piero Cipollone — Executive BoardCipollone participated in a panel on "The banking system and today's geopolitical challenges" in Naples on March 28, and also delivered an introductory statement before the European Parliament's economic committee. His focus has been on the digital euro and European financial integration.Overall ECB tone: The institution has made a clear hawkish pivot. The baseline scenario projects headline inflation at 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, with growth revised down to 0.9% in 2026 — though many officials have noted those projections are already outdated given energy prices have moved well above the cut-off assumption This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil pushed to its highest level since March 9, extending to an intraday high of $103.86. In doing so, the price moved above the 61.8% retracement of the sharp move down from the March 9 high to the March 10 low, which comes in at $103.16—tilting the bias more firmly in favor of buyers.Looking back to last week, the price had already reclaimed the 50% midpoint of that same decline at $98.11, a level that helped shift momentum higher. Today’s corrective dip found support at $99.43, comfortably above that 50% level, reinforcing it as a solid risk-defining area for buyers.For sellers to regain control, they would need to push the price back below $103.16 and hold it there, then extend the move lower through the $98.11 midpoint. Until that happens, the buyers remain in charge with momentum still pointing to the upside. In the video above I take a look at the technicals driving the price of oil and show the key levels to explain why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The WSJ is reporting that diplomats and global leaders are floating a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for fertilizer exports using a model similar to the Ukraine grain corridor established during the Russia-Ukraine war. The idea is to create a protected humanitarian shipping route, allowing critical supplies to move safely despite ongoing tensions.Support for the plan is building among politicians and Non-Goverment Organizations, with figures like former Ireland President Mary Robinson and Sweden’s former prime minister Carl Bildt backing the initiative. Ukrainian President Zelensky has also been involved in discussions, offering insights from how the Black Sea grain corridor successfully operated.The proposal could also align with Iran’s interests, helping secure food supply chains while reinforcing its claim that any disruptions in Hormuz are targeted at military or hostile actors—not humanitarian shipments.Bottom line: A Ukraine-style safe corridor for fertilizer exports is being explored as a way to ease global supply risks while navigating geopolitical tensions in Hormuz. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Nasdaq index is chopping up and down during the Powell speech, reflecting indecision after last week’s sharp selloff. The low for the day reached 20891.96, briefly breaking below a key swing area between 20902.48 and 21033.05, but sellers could not generate follow-through momentum.The price has since bounced and is now trading back within that swing area near 20948. This zone is the barometer for buyers and sellers today—and likely into the week ahead.Move back above 21033.05, and you should see increased short covering after five consecutive weeks of declines. That would shift the near-term bias more to the upside.On the downside, a break back below 20902.48 would re-empower sellers and likely lead to a resumption of the move lower, targeting the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the April 2024 low at 20491.86.Bottom line: The market is at a key inflection point. The swing area defines the bias—above favors a corrective bounce, below opens the door for another leg lower. Pay attention. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

President Trump spoke with the New York Post in some comments that are hard to interpret. He seemed to indicate that the US was negotiating with Iran's parliamentary speaker, someone who was reported dead on the weekend but has continued to tweet frequently, including about market moves.Asked about Iran Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, he encouraged Iran to make a deal before it's too late.“We’re gonna find out,” Trump told The Post. “I’ll let you know that in about a week.”That corresponds with the April 6 deadline Trump set. However the market isn't sure how seriously to take that timeline given that he's extended it twice already.Trump also leaned into the regime change rhetoric, which is an odd one given that the Supreme Leader is the old leader's son and the parliamentary speaker hasn't changed, and is highly combative online.“There has been total regime change because the regimes of the past are gone and we’re dealing with a whole new set of people,” Trump said. “And thus far, they’ve been much more reasonable.”Asked about the new Supreme Leader, Trump said he's unwell but probably alive. “We don’t know. We think probably yes, but in extraordinarily bad shape," he said.In terms of the attack on an Israeli refinery, he said the US response would be coming 'shortly'.I don't know if there's anything new here that wasn't in the Truth Social post earlier.Notably, WTI prices are up $2.88 to $102.58 but US Treasury yields are down 8-11 bps across the curve, which runs counter to the recent relationship with oil. The S&P 500 is up 0.3% while the Nasdaq is flat. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on a sustained basisThere is tension between our two objectivesWe haven't really seen the downside risks to a large balance sheetPolicy in a good place to wait and see how current situation plays outTariffs likely a one-time increase adding between 0.5% and 1.0% to inflationTendency is to look through supply shocks but must keep an eye on inflation expectationsMonitoring inflation expectations very carefully, appear to be well anchoredWe are getting close to the point where Powell is a lame duck. He still has two meetings as Chair and we don't know if he will stay on as Governor but Warsh's words (if he ever speaks) will carry more weight going forward. The Fed funds futures market is pricing in a small chance of rate cuts late this year after pricing in a 50% chance of a hike at one point last week.More:We don't know what the effects of the current situation might beReiterates the importance of vigilanceAI is making people more productiveI'm very optimistic about the medium and long termThere's no denying it's a challenging time to enter the labor forceWe do not see contagion from private credit right nowDoesn't have the makings of a broader systemic event right now This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tech stocks mixed: Microsoft climbs, semiconductors stumble? Sector OverviewTechnology Sector: A dynamic session in technology saw Microsoft (MSFT) rise by 1.62%, showing strength in the software-infrastructure space, while the semiconductor industry struggled, with Micron (MU) down 4.38% and Intel (INTC) dropping 1.81%.Consumer Cyclical:Amazon (AMZN) rallied by 1.08%, buoying the internet retail space, and Tesla (TSLA) edged up 0.46%, contributing to gains among auto manufacturers.Communication Services:Meta (META) advanced by 1.49%, while Google (GOOG) stayed nearly flat with a slight slip of 0.10%, indicating mixed sentiment in this vital sector.Healthcare: The sector made significant strides, with Eli Lilly (LLY) up 1.51%, reflecting positive momentum in drug manufacturing.Industrials:General Electric (GE) saw a notable downturn, falling 2.79%, which might reflect broader concerns in the industrial and aero defense markets.? Market Mood and TrendsToday's market presented a mix of optimism and uncertainty. Tech giants like Microsoft led gains, hinting at investor confidence in software and cloud services. Conversely, the semiconductor sector faced headwinds, possibly due to supply chain concerns or market saturation fears.Overall, the positive movement in consumer cyclical and healthcare stocks showcases ongoing demand and innovation optimism. Conversely, declines in key industrial stocks may suggest caution amid economic growth concerns.? Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider diversifying portfolios by increasing exposure to healthcare and stable tech stocks like Microsoft, which are showing resilience during market fluctuations.Be cautious with semiconductor investments given the current volatility and ensure any positions are balanced by investments in sectors showing growth, such as communication services.Remain vigilant for news impacting industrial sectors and continue monitoring economic indicators for longer-term strategic adjustments.For continuous updates, visit InvestingLive.com for expert insights and comprehensive market analysis. ? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.2New orders +6.1 vs +11.8 priorPrices paid 32.7 vs 31.7 priorEmployment -1.0 vs +7.5 priorThe surging energy market is undoubtedly a boom for Texas, even with the associated inflation headwinds. However it's going to be tough to pull the trigger on fresh drilling unless executives feel that the war will continue.The comments in the report might be more representative of how higher energy is hitting the broader economy:Beverage and tobacco product manufacturingWe have seen decreases in some of our costs, in particular agricultural raw materials. We have seen increases in the costs of our packaging materials, some of this related to increase in energy costs. We expect the Iran war to cause increases in energy costs for a period extending at least six months and potentially longer. This has increased our uncertainty for the rest of the year.Chemical manufacturingThe Iran war and bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz has caused significant supply chain disruption from China, allowing the U.S. chemicals sector to benefit from the supply bottleneck. We believe this to be short-lived and the situation to return to the lower demand levels in the latter half of 2026.Computer and electronic product manufacturingI am thinking about recommending to our board to close the company.We have seen no impact yet from higher fuel prices. However, we expect to see this very soon, as our vendors will increase raw materials prices to include the increased cost for transportation.We would like to see lower interest rates throughout this year.Food manufacturingContinuing confusion at the federal level, illiquid consumer base and falling federal government spending are not helping the food industry.High density Hispanic channels are down. Costs are up, and freight is increasing fast. Tariff chaos has wreaked havoc with all of our export customers and seasoning suppliers. We are worried about costs increasing due to fuel price increases. We are worried about a slowdown in the economy due to geopolitics.Furniture and related product manufacturingThe Iran war and impact on energy prices are concerns as consumers have to deal with the rapid increase in energy cost. Hopefully it will moderate as the conflict curtails. That said, the more demoralizing impact of the constant circus out of Washington and inability to fund critical infrastructure like TSA is killing the animal spirits of our economy.Machinery manufacturingWe are beating our competition due to the continued vertical integration plans that we are focused on implementing and improving. This requires a great deal of planning and money, but the payout is very sound.Spring has sprung. It’s truly like the balm of Gilead. After an extended period of ailment and woe, the healing has occurred and we are on our way to greater things. Our business growth thus far in 2026 is like a sweet fragrance that is healing our loss and hardship from prior years. We are still seeing strong business activity with our backlog increasing.Our company is seeing an increase in activity totally unrelated to the current geopolitical conditions. The effect of uncertainty delayed the start of a new manufacturing project in the U.S. (tariffs, capital expenditures) in 2025. Project 2025 is underway with a six-month delay and scaled back to accommodate a less ambitious picture for 2026. We are still recovering from 2025 plus a more conservative outlook for 2026. Things are trending upward in our field but at a much slower pace.Miscellaneous manufacturingMany external factors contributing to an unstable market.If we could get our tariff reimbursement back, that would put us in a position to invest in growth. Without it, though, we don't have the capital to invest in growth.Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturingWe are waiting for home building activity to pick up, which is dependent upon interest rates.Paper manufacturingOverall business still slow. Have achieved limited price reductions in some raw materials that are in an oversupply condition but not enough to keep up with the decline in selling prices of our products. We still see upward pressure on labor and benefits cost. Margins are reduced from 12 months ago.Plastics and rubber products manufacturingImporting from China is precarious. The costs of product and freight are higher and slower. Suppliers are apprehensive. Their costs are increasing, especially a certain raw material plastic impacted by petrochemicals affected by cost of oil.Printing and related support activitiesWe have been stupid slow recently, slower than we can recall in many years. We continue to believe it’s from the chaos and confusion coming out of Washington. In addition, now with the Iran war, prices are going to shoot up due to shipping costs, and tariffs are still in effect. So, there is no telling when business will start to improve. We have some nice work coming in soon, but it's work we knew was coming. We are seeing some improvement in our estimating backlog, which is a good sign of better days to come. The war is causing a disruption of raw materials prices as we are producing plastic-based products, virtually all of our raw materials are hydrocarbon based. Fifteen percent increases are normal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is pushing to new session highs against the EUR, GBP, CHF, and AUD in late-day trading, showing renewed demand even as US yields move lower. The 2-year yield is down -7.4 basis points to 3.840%, while the 10-year is off -8.6 basis points at 4.354%. That divergence—stronger dollar alongside falling yields—suggests flows and positioning are currently outweighing rate dynamics.At the same time, oil prices are holding firm, while equities are losing some upside momentum. The Nasdaq has erased earlier gains and is now chopping around unchanged. The S&P is still modestly higher by 0.21%, and the Dow is up 0.44%, but the tone is less convincing as the session progresses.From a technical perspective, the dollar strength is showing up clearly across the major pairs:EURUSD: The pair has broken below a key swing area between 1.1484 and 1.1491, turning that zone into a risk-defining level for sellers. Staying below keeps the bearish bias intact, with the next downside target coming near the March lows at 1.1407.GBPUSD: Sellers have taken control after breaking below the March/2026 lows between 1.3217 and 1.3229. That area now acts as close resistance. On the downside, a daily swing area between 1.3138 and 1.3178 becomes the next target zone.USDJPY: The pair initially moved lower, breaking below its 100-hour moving average at 159.45, but downside momentum stalled ahead of an upward-sloping trendline and the 200-hour moving average at 159.18. Buyers leaned against that support, and the pair has since bounced as broader USD buying re-emerges—even as concerns linger about underlying yen weakness.USDCHF: The USDCHF has extended to new highs, breaking above a key swing area between 0.7978 and 0.7989, which tilts the bias more firmly to the upside. The move has now pushed above the natural resistance at 0.8000, with the high reaching 0.8005. Holding above 0.8000 keeps buyers in control and opens the door for further upside extension. A move back below the prior swing area would be needed to take some of the bullish momentum away, but for now, the break and hold above that cluster gives buyers the green light.AUDUSD: The AUDUSD broke below a key swing area last week between 0.6896 and 0.6908, and that shift has clearly opened the downside. The break is significant because, going back to January, the pair moved quickly higher through that zone—leaving little in the way of meaningful support on the way down. That creates more of an “open road” feel for sellers. The next natural support comes in near 0.6800, followed by 0.6765. Beyond that, traders will look toward the January low at 0.6658 as a key longer-term downside target.Bottom line: The USD is in control across the board. EURUSD and GBPUSD have broken key support levels (higher USD), keeping the bearish bias intact with room to extend lower. USDCHF is breaking higher and holding above 0.8000, reinforcing upside momentum. AUDUSD has entered “open road” territory to the downside after its breakdown. The only pause is in USDJPY which is lower on the day (lower USD), but where buyers are holding key support after a dip—but even there, USD demand is starting to reassert itself. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.