With the absence of the US jobs report today, it is leaving markets to fend for themselves in closing out the week. And so far, the more nervous and jittery mood all around is still permeating as we look to the session ahead. In particular, risk trades are being shaken up hard amid a combination of a selloff in tech shares and cryptocurrencies falling apart.The sharp pullback in precious metals also extended in early Asia trading, before a modest bounce back seen in the past few hours. Silver dipped to as low as $64.06 before recovering some poise to sit just a little over 3% higher on the day at $73 levels now. At the lows, it marked another potential 13% decline in silver earlier as dip buyers got flushed once more.Interestingly though, the chart shows the rebound coming just as price was close to testing the 100-day moving average (red line). That's a key line in the sand with silver having not traded below the key level since April 2025. And even then, it was only for a brief period in navigating through Trump's tariffs threat.If dip buyers can hold that line, it bodes well for a more solid rebound as we establish a consolidative phase for the precious metal. Some technical buying will be a key sentiment indicator in keeping the bullish run going for precious metals this year.The other good news for silver is that we're seeing the gold-to-silver ratio jump back up to around the 65 to 70 range. The ratio narrowed considerably to below 50 at one point at the end of last month, which suggested that any major correction will punish silver more than it will gold.The more balanced ratio would suggest that the flush in silver might be meeting its end, allowing for a healthy correction to complete its course. We'll then move on to defining the underlying factors driving precious metals again and focus on the case for a continued push higher later in the year. After all, February has always proved to be a tough seasonal month for silver in any case.Besides the volatile selling in precious metals, risk trades are also taking a big knock in trading this week. In particular, tech shares have been hit hard as the AI trade begins to crack. High valuations, souring investor sentiment, and Anthropic making waves are key factors dampening the status quo that market players have been used to over the past two years or so.Adding to that is the technical breakdown seen above, with the Nasdaq cracking under its 100-day moving average (red line) this week. That's the first run below the key technical level since May 2025, with the previous break from above coming back in February 2025. The break at the time brought about a roughly 19% drop after, so just be wary that it is a big momentum shift for tech shares in general.And lastly, there's the whole pain trade with cryptocurrencies happening as well this week. Bitcoin tumbled hard in breaking below the lows from March to April 2025, then taking out the $70,000 mark yesterday. That's leading to a sharper drop with the low earlier today coming within a whisker of cracking the $60,000 level. As mentioned yesterday here, it is hard to pick at key support levels for Bitcoin currently.At most, we can point to the $60,000 mark as being a psychological support barrier alongside the 200-week moving average (blue line) now at around $58,065. Those will be key lines in the sand in keeping risk sentiment afloat as we look to end the week.For the time being, it looks like markets could use a bit of a breather before the weekend comes along. Precious metals are holding a modest rebound after the heavy drop, with S&P 500 futures down by just 0.1% even as Amazon shares are sent to the cleaners. Then, we're seeing Bitcoin also bounce back to around $66,000 levels so far.The more nervous mood is easing a little but it doesn't mean that the pressure valve is off. All it takes is just one small trigger to stir up the negative animal spirits in markets once again, considering the more fragile sentiment in play. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

RBI holds rates at 5.25% as inflation stays low and growth outlook remains steadyReserve Bank of India unchanged, as widely expectedReserve Bank India monetary policy decision due 10am local (0430 GMT/2330 US Eastern time)Recap: BoJ policymaker flags need for further hikes as inflation nears targetIndia eyes up to $80bn in Boeing orders after US trade deal, CNBC reportsJapan megabanks signal return to JGB buying as yields rise and markets stabiliseJapan election Sunday puts yen and bond markets on alert as Takaichi seeks strong mandateBitcoin, Ether bounce in Asia, swings continueUS “leave Iran now” warning resurfaces, but advisory dates back to JanuaryBoJ’s Masu says Japan has shifted into inflation as policy normalisation continuesGold ETF inflows hit record in January as holdings and AUM reach new highs, WGC saysPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9590 (vs. estimate at 6.9517)South Korea sells $3bn FX stabilisation bonds to bolster reserves as won pressure persistsJapan household spending slumps in December as inflation squeezes consumers (more)Gold is seeing selling in early AsiaJapan December household spending falls m/m and y/y, poor numbersRussian oil discounts to China hit record as India demand risks mountBullock says RBA needs tighter policy as capacity constraints lift inflation risksGold fundamentals remain supportive despite recent correction, analysts sayMore on CME raises margins on COMEX gold and silver futures after extreme volatilityCME raises margins on Comex gold (again)investingLive Americas market news: Bitcoin cut in half in four months, down 13% todayAmazon Q4 2026 Earnings: Revenue Tops Estimates, AWS Drives Strong Growth, Small EPS MissAt a glance:Amazon shares slumped after earnings, as a heavy capex outlook overshadowed solid operating performance and strong AWS growth.CME raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures following extreme volatility, triggering early Asia weakness before a partial rebound.RBA Governor Bullock defended this week’s rate hike, flagging capacity constraints and persistent inflation risks.BoJ board member Masu struck a cautious-hawkish tone, keeping further tightening on the table while warning about yen-driven inflation.India’s RBI held rates at 5.25%, with the rupee little changed, while Japan’s election looms as a fresh risk for yen and JGBs.Amazon’s Q4 2026 earnings were mixed but solid, with a slight EPS miss offset by a clear top-line beat. Operating income of $24.98bn and an 11.7% margin were effectively in line with expectations, signalling continued cost discipline. AWS was the standout, delivering $35.58bn in revenue and 24% ex-FX growth, well above the 21% expected.However, the capex outlook dominated the reaction. Amazon flagged around $200bn of capex for 2026, far above the $146bn consensus, reigniting concerns around cash flow and near-term returns. The initial reaction was brutal, with chatter that the stock would be “slaughtered”, and Amazon shares were down more than 10% in after-hours trade at last check. US equity index futures also slid on Globex, though they later recovered off the lows.In commodities, the CME again lifted margin requirements for key precious metals contracts. Initial margin on COMEX 100 gold futures rises to 9% from 8%, while COMEX 5000 silver margins increase to 18% from 15%. The move follows violent recent price swings and forced deleveraging across metals. Gold and silver fell in early Asia trade before stabilising.In Australia, RBA Governor Bullock told parliament the board lifted the cash rate because the economy is more capacity constrained than previously judged, requiring tighter policy. She said demand growth must slow unless supply-side capacity and productivity improve, adding that the labour market remains strong, inflation is still elevated, and risks are skewed toward inflation persistence. The Australian dollar traded in a narrow range, briefly dipping below 0.6910 before edging back toward 0.6950, mirroring subdued moves across major FX.In Japan, BoJ board member Masu said the central bank has exited extraordinary easing and will continue to raise rates if the January outlook is realised, but cautiously, to avoid disrupting the wage–price cycle. He described yen weakness as a double-edged sword, supporting profits but adding to imported inflation, and stressed that excessive or disorderly currency moves are undesirable.Elsewhere, India’s RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% in a unanimous vote, retaining a neutral stance amid low underlying inflation and steady growth. The rupee was little changed.Finally, Japan heads into a national election on Sunday, with polls pointing to a strong mandate for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. While a decisive win could stabilise politics, markets remain focused on fiscal risks, particularly her proposed food sales tax suspension, with implications for JGBs and the yen firmly in view. Asia-Pac stocks: Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.29%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -1.13% Shanghai Composite +0.11%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -2.26% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The RBI held rates and its neutral stance as expected, signalling confidence in domestic growth while flagging rising external headwinds.The Reserve Bank of India held policy steady as expected, with the MPC unanimously keeping the repo rate at 5.25%.SDF (standing facility rate) rate, which is the floor of the monetary policy corridor, unchanged at 5.00%The RBI retained a neutral policy stance, signalling comfort with current settings after aggressive easing.Officials said underlying inflation remains low, while near-term growth and inflation outlooks stay positive.External headwinds have intensified since the last meeting, but domestic fundamentals are seen as resilient.The Indian rupee was little changed after the decision, reflecting a well-telegraphed outcome.The Reserve Bank of India kept monetary policy unchanged on Friday, striking a steady tone on growth and inflation while acknowledging rising external risks.The RBI’s monetary policy committee voted unanimously to hold the repo rate at 5.25%, with the central bank also leaving the marginal standing facility rate at 5.50% and the standing deposit facility rate at 5.0%. The MPC retained its neutral policy stance, signalling that current settings remain appropriate after a prolonged easing cycle.In his remarks, the RBI governor said the Indian economy remains on a steadily improving trajectory, with domestic growth momentum intact despite a more challenging global backdrop. Underlying inflation was described as continuing to run low, giving policymakers room to stay on hold even as uncertainty abroad has picked up.The central bank acknowledged that external headwinds have intensified since the last policy meeting, reflecting global financial conditions and lingering geopolitical and trade-related risks. Even so, officials said the near-term outlook for domestic inflation and growth remains positive, underpinned by solid demand and favourable inflation dynamics.Markets took the decision in stride. The Indian rupee traded near unchanged against the US dollar following the announcement, reflecting broad consensus around the rate hold and limited surprises in the policy message. Bond markets also showed little reaction, with investors focused more on the RBI’s forward guidance than the headline decision.With inflation expected to stay around or below the RBI’s 4% target and growth holding up, the policy signal suggests an extended pause ahead. Attention now shifts to how persistent external pressures become, and whether global financial conditions eventually force a reassessment of the RBI’s neutral stance later in the year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

RBI leaves repo rate at 5.25%, and SDF (standing facility rate) rate, which is the floor of the monetary policy corridor, at 5.00% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:The RBI is expected to hold rates steady at its 10:00 a.m. IST decision, with inflation pressures contained and tariff risks easing.Recent budget measures to support manufacturing and exports, alongside a trade deal with the US, have improved the policy backdrop.Attention is shifting from rates to liquidity conditions, with banks pushing for looser LCR rules.State-owned banks face a credit–deposit mismatch, as loan growth outpaces deposits under pressure to lend.Analysts warn easing LCR requirements could flatten or pressure the yield curve, leaving the RBI in a policy bind.--The Reserve Bank of India is set to announce its policy decision at 10:00 a.m. IST, with expectations firmly centred on the central bank leaving interest rates unchanged. The outlook is supported by relatively benign inflation conditions and easing concerns around potential US tariffs, following recent budget measures aimed at boosting manufacturing and exports, as well as a trade deal with Washington.While a pause in rates is widely anticipated, pressure is building elsewhere in the system. Banks are increasingly lobbying for an easing of liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) requirements, according to analysts. Suresh Ganapathy, managing director and head of financial services research at Macquarie Capital, said state-owned banks face ongoing pressure to deliver stronger credit growth even as deposit growth lags, creating structural strain.Relaxing LCR rules could help ease that imbalance, but Ganapathy warned it would likely put pressure on the yield curve. As a result, the RBI finds itself in a difficult position, balancing financial stability concerns against the need to support bank lending and economic growth.Stay tuned for the policy announcement due on just a few minutes time.The rupee strengthened in the previous session, taking its weekly advance, sparked by the U.S.-India trade deal This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Masu’s comments reinforce a more hawkish tilt at the BoJ, keeping April hike expectations alive as yen weakness sharpens inflation risks.Summary:BoJ board member Kazuyuki Masu called for timely rate hikes to prevent underlying inflation from overshooting the 2% target.Masu said underlying inflation is still below target but “drawing very close”, with deflationary behaviour fading.He highlighted the weak yen as a key inflation risk, warning of spillovers into expectations and prices.The comments underscore growing hawkishness within the BoJ board, following dissent and recent votes for higher rates.Markets continue to price a meaningful chance of an April hike, keeping yen and JGB sensitivity elevated.A Bank of Japan policymaker struck a notably hawkish tone on Friday, calling for further interest rate increases to prevent inflation from overshooting target and reinforcing market expectations for a near-term policy move.BoJ board member Kazuyuki Masu said Japan’s underlying inflation remains below the central bank’s 2% target but is “drawing very close” as firms and households move away from deeply entrenched deflationary behaviour. Speaking to business leaders in western Japan, Masu argued that additional rate hikes will be required to complete the normalisation of monetary policy after decades of ultra-easy settings.The remarks highlight a shift within the BoJ toward greater vigilance on inflation risks, driven by sustained wage growth, persistently high food prices and a weak yen. Masu warned that currency depreciation could amplify import costs and feed into inflation expectations, a channel policymakers are watching closely as the yen remains under pressure.Masu said particular attention should be paid to processed food prices, noting that sharp rises in rice prices may have made households more accepting of broader food price increases. That dynamic, he suggested, could play a decisive role in determining whether underlying inflation stays contained or drifts higher.The BoJ raised its short-term policy rate to 0.75% in December. At its January 'on hold' meeting one member voted for a further hike, to 1%. Masu’s comments add to evidence of a growing hawkish bloc within the nine-member board.At the same time, Masu stressed the need for caution. While Japan has clearly entered an inflationary phase, he said excessive tightening risks undermining the nascent virtuous cycle between wages and prices. That balancing act remains central to the BoJ’s strategy.Governor Kazuo Ueda has echoed the need for care, arguing that underlying inflation driven by domestic demand and wages has not yet firmly reached 2%. Markets, however, are increasingly focused on the risk that yen weakness accelerates import-driven inflation, with pricing reflecting roughly a 60% chance of another rate hike as early as April. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A potential $70–80bn Boeing order pipeline would be a headline boost for US aerospace, but markets still need detail on timing, funding and how much of the wider US–India trade package is binding.Summary:India is ready to place up to US$80bn of Boeing aircraft orders as part of a broader push to expand US–India trade after the announced deal, CNBC reported. Trade minister Piyush Goyal indicated aircraft demand alone is $70–80bn, and could top $100bn once engines and spares are included. A joint statement is expected within 4–5 days, with a formal agreement targeted for March, according to Goyal in separate reporting. The trade package’s scale (including claims around $500bn of US goods purchases) is drawing scrutiny in India and scepticism from market watchers on feasibility. For markets, a Boeing-heavy tranche is a near-term positive for US aerospace, while the broader deal has cross-currents for energy flows and crude pricing if it shifts India’s crude sourcing mix.Info via CNBC and other sources. India is preparing to place aircraft orders of up to US$80 billion with Boeing following the announcement of a new US–India trade deal, according to a CNBC report citing comments from India’s commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal.CNBC reported that Goyal described India’s aircraft demand as “ready” to be placed, putting the value near $80bn for Boeing jets, and suggesting the total could exceed $100bn once engines and spare parts are included. The figures broadly align with separate reporting that India expects to buy $70–80bn of Boeing aircraft and that aviation-related purchases could total roughly $100bn when engines and parts are counted. The aircraft push sits within a wider trade narrative that has been light on official detail and heavy on headline numbers. Goyal has flagged that India and the US expect a joint statement within days to finalise the first tranche, with a formal agreement in March. The broader package includes claims that India could procure at least $500bn of US goods over five years, though analysts and opposition figures in India have demanded clarity on what is committed versus aspirational. For Boeing, any large incremental India order flow would reinforce a longer-run growth story tied to India’s expanding aviation market, but the timing and certainty of “yet-to-be-placed” demand will matter. The policy and reputational backdrop also remains sensitive: Boeing has faced ongoing scrutiny tied to Air India’s Dreamliner fleet and litigation from some families connected to a fatal June 2025 crash, which has kept safety and governance questions in the foreground. Macro-wise, markets will also watch the energy angle. The trade deal has been linked in public commentary to India potentially shifting crude sourcing toward US (and possibly Venezuela), which would have implications for regional crude differentials and freight flows, even if New Delhi has been careful to frame energy imports as a commercial decision. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s megabanks see higher yields restoring the appeal of JGBs, even as near-term losses and policy risks argue for a cautious rebuild.In brief, via Reuters report. Summary:Japan’s biggest banks say they are ready to rebuild JGB holdings as higher yields improve returns, despite rising unrealised losses.MUFG and SMFG see long-term yields stabilising, opening the door to cautious re-entry after years of shrinking bond exposure.Recent calm in JGB markets, including resilient auction demand and lower long-end yields, has eased immediate stress.Banks remain wary of further BoJ rate hikes and fiscal risks linked to Prime Minister Takaichi’s policy agenda.Analysts say higher yields and a weaker yen should lift bank earnings momentum over coming years.Japan’s largest banks are preparing to increase their holdings of government bonds as rising interest rates restore the appeal of yields, even as valuation losses on existing portfolios have mounted.Executives at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group said they expect to rebuild Japanese government bond exposure after years of cutting holdings during the era of ultra-low rates. Over the past decade, returns on JGBs were compressed by aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of Japan, prompting banks to shorten duration or shift assets elsewhere.That dynamic is now changing. A sharp rise in JGB yields since November, triggered in part by fiscal concerns tied to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending proposals, hit bond valuations, pushing unrealised losses higher. However, recent weeks have brought signs of stabilisation. Demand at recent debt auctions has been resilient, while 30-year JGB yields have retreated around 32 basis points from January’s record highs.MUFG said it would cautiously rebuild its JGB position as long-term rates show signs of peaking. The bank reported unrealised bond losses of roughly ¥200bn at year-end, up sharply from earlier in the year, but noted that earlier sales of longer-dated bonds helped limit the damage. SMFG echoed that stance, acknowledging valuation losses while signalling plans to gradually increase JGB exposure as market conditions allow.Banks have so far remained focused on short-duration bonds. Mizuho, Japan’s third-largest lender, reported an average remaining maturity of just 1.8 years on its JGB holdings at end-December, underscoring sector-wide caution.Some investors expect banks to wait before adding significant long-dated exposure, given the risk of further BoJ tightening and concerns over Japan’s heavy debt load. Still, analysts argue that higher yields should support earnings over time, especially as net interest margins improve. The rally in bank shares since the BoJ began raising rates in 2024 reflects that optimism, with analysts now revising profit forecasts higher across the sector. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan markets are watching whether Takaichi’s likely election win delivers political stability without reigniting fiscal fears that pressure the yen and JGBs.Summary:Japan heads into a national election with polls pointing to a strong mandate for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, potentially reshaping the policy and market backdrop.A decisive win could stabilise politics, but fiscal risks remain front and centre, especially around her proposed food sales tax suspension.Markets are sensitive to funding questions, with the yen and JGBs already reacting sharply to fiscal uncertainty.A weaker mandate — or policy missteps — could limit the Bank of Japan’s room to smooth market stress.Geopolitical tensions with China add another layer of risk for Japan assets and currency sentiment.Japan’s election on Sunday is shaping up as a pivotal test for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with polls suggesting her conservative bloc could secure a commanding majority, an outcome that would carry significant implications for Japanese markets, the yen and fiscal policy.Surveys indicate Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Japan Innovation Party could win close to 300 seats in the 465-seat lower house, well above the threshold needed for a stable majority. Such an outcome would give the government firm control of parliamentary committees, easing the passage of budgets and legislation and reducing near-term political uncertainty, typically a supportive backdrop for Japanese assets.For markets, however, the election is about more than seat counts. Investors remain wary of Takaichi’s pledge to suspend the 8% sales tax on food to cushion households from rising prices. The proposal triggered a sharp sell-off in Japanese government bonds last month and pushed the yen lower, as markets questioned how an economy with the heaviest public debt burden in the developed world would absorb an estimated 5 trillion yen annual revenue shortfall. Any post-election clarification on funding or duration will be closely scrutinised by FX and rates markets.The fiscal debate also intersects with monetary policy. Analysts note that if renewed fiscal concerns unsettle markets, the BoJ may be less willing, or able, to step in to stabilise bonds or the currency, particularly as it continues to normalise policy. That dynamic leaves the yen sensitive to both political messaging and global yield moves.Beyond economics, a strong electoral mandate could embolden Takaichi on foreign policy, particularly in relations with China. Her hawkish stance on regional security and Taiwan has already heightened tensions with Beijing, raising the prospect of increased defence spending. While this may support certain equity sectors, it also adds a geopolitical risk premium that can weigh on the yen during periods of stress. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BTC up around 4% while ETH up just a little more that that. Crypto has seen epic selling. BTC was circa 125K in October 2025. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Renewed attention on US advice to leave Iran reflects old guidance, but it reinforces lingering geopolitical risks rather than signalling a new escalation.Summary:Renewed social-media attention on US advice to “leave Iran now” reflects recycled guidance from mid-January, not new escalation.The warning stems from widespread anti-government protests, crackdowns and detention risks, not a fresh diplomatic trigger.US officials stress Americans should not rely on government assistance to exit, given the lack of a US embassy in Tehran.While not new, the advisory keeps geopolitical risk premia alive amid already fragile Middle East sentiment.Oil markets remain sensitive to any perceived deterioration in Iran’s internal stability or regional security.Fresh attention on US advice urging citizens to “leave Iran now” has circulated widely on social media in recent hours, but the warning itself is not new and dates back to mid-January, according to US government statements.As of 12-13 January 2026, the U.S. Department of State and the US Virtual Embassy in Tehran advised all American citizens in Iran to depart immediately, citing escalating security risks, violent and widespread anti-government protests, and the heightened risk of arbitrary detention. The guidance emphasised that Americans should leave without relying on US government assistance, given the absence of a physical US embassy in the country.The advisory followed what officials described as the largest anti-government demonstrations in years, accompanied by lethal crackdowns, intermittent internet shutdowns and rising regional tensions. US authorities warned that dual US-Iranian nationals face particularly high risks, as Iran does not recognise dual citizenship, increasing the chance of detention.Because Washington has no embassy presence in Tehran, consular services are extremely limited. From a market perspective, the resurfacing of the warning is less about new information and more about persistent geopolitical fragility. While there has been no fresh escalation, reminders of internal unrest in Iran tend to keep investors alert to tail risks across the Middle East, particularly where energy supply and shipping routes are concerned.---US and Iranian officials are scheduled to talk in Muscat today, Friday, February 6, 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Masu said Japan is firmly in an inflationary phase and policy will keep normalising if the outlook holds, but the boj will move cautiously to protect the wage–price cycle while continuing balance-sheet tapering. Full text can be read here:Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in JapanSpeech at a Meeting with Local Leaders in EhimeSummaryBoJ board member Masu said Japan’s economy has so far weathered the US tariff shock better than feared, with tariffs “winding down” and little visible disruption to domestic activity. He argued Japan has “fully transitioned into inflation”, but expects CPI to slow below 2% in H1 2026 as food-price effects fade and government measures bite. Masu flagged food, especially rice and spillovers into broader processed food, as the key inflation risk to watch, more so than services inflation. On policy, he said the BoJ has exited extraordinary easing, delivered four rate hikes since March 2024, held steady in January 2026, and will keep raising rates if the January outlook is realised, but cautiously to avoid breaking the wage–price cycle. He also addressed balance-sheet normalisation: ETF disposal guidelines were set in September 2025, while JGB purchases are being tapered sharply and holdings reduced, with purchases seen falling to under JPY30trn by FY2027.-Bank of Japan board member Kazuyuki Masu struck a cautiously hawkish tone in a speech in Ehime, arguing Japan has moved decisively out of deflation while warning policymakers must navigate the final stage of normalisation carefully to avoid damaging a nascent wage–price cycle. Masu opened by flagging two key risks the BoJ is monitoring: the global spillovers from US tariff policy and the durability of Japan’s inflation dynamics. On trade, he said the tariff issue that has weighed on global sentiment since 2025 appears to be “winding down” without causing significant disruption to Japan, aided in part by yen depreciation supporting exporters’ earnings even as auto tariffs rose. He pointed to firm US consumption and labour-market conditions as an offset to earlier fears of a broader slowdown. On inflation, Masu said Japan has “fully transitioned into inflation”, with CPI running above 2%, but he expects the headline pace to decelerate to below 2% in the first half of 2026 as the impact of earlier food price rises wanes and government measures to address rising prices take effect. He singled out food as the dominant driver, noting the 2025 surge in rice prices and emphasising the risk that rice-driven price psychology spills into broader processed food inflation, a channel he is watching closely. Masu also addressed the yen, noting that currency weakness has been a double-edged influence on the economy. While a weaker yen has supported corporate profits and exporters’ earnings, he acknowledged that it has also contributed to imported inflation, particularly through higher food and energy costs. He stressed that the BoJ is closely monitoring the extent to which exchange-rate moves feed through into prices and inflation expectations, especially given the sensitivity of household sentiment. Masu reiterated that excessive or disorderly currency moves are undesirable, and said exchange-rate developments remain an important consideration in assessing the balance between sustaining growth and containing inflation pressures. Masu’s comments keep USD/JPY sensitive to inflation persistence and yen pass-through, reinforcing the risk that further BoJ normalisation, alongside Ministry of Finance vigilance, caps tolerance for renewed currency weakness.Masu also spent time on rates and “room to move”. He noted the policy rate was lifted to 0.75% in December 2025, but argued real interest rates remain materially negative, meaning financial conditions are still accommodative. He discussed the neutral-rate concept, citing estimates that imply a nominal neutral range roughly around 1.0–2.5%, while stressing the uncertainty around any single point estimate. On the policy path, Masu said the BoJ has exited unprecedented easing, implemented four rate hikes since March 2024, and held rates in January 2026 to monitor data. If the January outlook for activity and prices is realised, he said the boj will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust accommodation as it completes normalisation, but he warned against excessive tightening that could disrupt the “virtuous cycle” of wages and prices. Finally, Masu detailed balance-sheet normalisation. He noted the BoJ decided on ETF disposal guidelines in September 2025, and argued sales must be paced carefully given the scale of holdings. On JGBs, he highlighted the boj holds about half of outstanding supply and is reducing purchases to support market stability, with annual buying set to fall from a peak above JPY130trn to slightly under JPY30trn by FY2027, while JGB holdings are projected to fall by nearly 20% by March 2027. Masu is a former chief financial officer of trading house Mitsubishi Corp. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

WGC data show January delivered record gold ETF inflows, pushing holdings and AUM to new highs even as dip-buying emerged after a late-month pullback.The World Gold Council (an industry-backed lobby group) says global gold ETFs pulled in a record US$19bn in January, taking holdings and AUM to fresh highs. WGC puts global gold ETF AUM at US$669bn and holdings at 4,145t after +120t in January. North America and Asia led inflows, with Europe also positive as geopolitical and trade risks stayed elevated. Trading activity surged, with WGC estimating gold market volumes at a record US$623bn/day through January. WGC says dip-buying showed up even as prices pulled back late-month, with most regions still seeing inflows on key late-January/early-February dayGlobal physically backed gold ETFs attracted a record wave of inflows in January, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council, as investors increased allocations even as prices pulled back late in the month. The WGC, an industry-backed lobby group, said gold ETFs drew US$19bn in net inflows in January, the strongest monthly intake on record. The January buying coincided with a sharp rise in gold prices earlier in the month, helping push global gold ETF assets under management to a fresh high of US$669bn, up around 20% on the month, while collective holdings rose 120 tonnes to a record 4,145 tonnes, the WGC said. The report also highlighted a surge in trading activity, with gold market volumes ending January at a record US$623bn/day, underlining how active the market has become during periods of fast-moving macro and geopolitical headlines. Regionally, WGC said North American and Asian investors did the heavy lifting, while Europe also recorded notable inflows as geopolitical and trade tensions kept hedging demand elevated. Importantly for market tone, the WGC said that even after a late-month price decline, inflows largely continued outside Europe on 30 January and 2 February, suggesting some investors used the dip to add exposure rather than de-risk. For markets, the message is that ETFs remain a powerful transmission channel for investor appetite. Sustained ETF demand can tighten effective supply in the physical market, reinforce bullish momentum and amplify moves when prices are already trending. The risk is that flows can also reverse quickly if real yields rise, the US dollar strengthens, or volatility forces deleveraging — making ETF data a key near-term signal alongside central bank buying and futures positioning. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.Previous close 6.9363 Injects 31.5bn yuan in 7day RRs @ 1.4% and also 300 bn yuan via 14day RRs (Lunar New Year holidays begin February 15)On posted on the 'why' of the 14 dayers here:PBoC uses 14-day reverse repos today ahead of Lunar New Year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korea’s $3bn FX bond sale strengthens reserves optics and the won’s safety net, but the currency’s direction still hinges on global rates and domestic dollar demand.Summary:South Korea sold $3bn of FX stabilisation bonds, its biggest single deal since 2009, in a move framed as pre-emptive reserve support amid heightened external uncertainty.The deal included a first-ever $1bn 3-year tranche and a $2bn 5-year, priced at a record-low spread of UST +12bp for the 5-year, signalling strong demand.Authorities are leaning on multiple levers to steady the won as dollar demand remains elevated and FX volatility persists. Korea’s FX reserves have fallen for two straight months to $425.91bn at end-January, partly reflecting stabilisation efforts and liquidity operations. Near-term, the issuance bolsters the “war chest”, but the won’s path still hinges on global rates, risk sentiment, and domestic dollar outflows. ---South Korea tapped international markets with a $3 billion sale of foreign exchange stabilisation bonds, the largest single issuance of its kind since 2009, as authorities move to reinforce buffers against external volatility and renewed pressure on the won.The finance ministry said the deal was split into a first-ever $1 billion three-year tranche and a $2 billion five-year tranche, with the five-year pricing at a record-low spread of US Treasuries plus 12 basis points. The ministry framed the sale as a pre-emptive step to strengthen foreign exchange reserves and enhance the country’s safety net for currency stability during a period of heightened global uncertainty.FX stabilisation bonds are typically used to raise hard currency funding that can support reserves and liquidity backstops, helping authorities smooth periods of market stress or disorderly moves in the exchange rate. The timing is notable: South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves have declined for two consecutive months, falling to $425.91 billion at end-January, after a drop in December as policymakers sought to curb won weakness. The issuance also lands as officials reassess broader stabilisation measures amid persistent demand for dollars, including from domestic investors allocating overseas, which has complicated efforts to steady the currency. A low spread suggests investors continue to view Korea’s sovereign credit positively despite the challenging backdrop, potentially limiting near-term funding cost concerns.For markets, the immediate implication is a stronger liquidity and reserves narrative: a larger FX buffer can reduce tail-risk premia and dampen speculative pressure on the won. However, sustained currency stability will still depend on external drivers such as US yields, risk sentiment and trade dynamics, as well as domestic capital outflows that can keep dollar demand elevated. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s weak December household spending underscores inflation’s bite on consumers but is unlikely to derail expectations for BOJ tightening later this year.Summary:Japan’s December household spending fell sharply, badly undershooting expectations both month-on-month and year-on-year.The data suggest inflation pressure is biting into real household incomes, weighing on consumption late in 2025.Analysts see the weakness as unlikely to materially change the BOJ’s inflation outlook, with the impact already largely anticipated.The figures may reinforce the BOJ’s resolve to lean against inflation, potentially supporting expectations for an earlier rate hike.Separately, Japan’s foreign reserves rose to $1.395trn, underscoring ample capacity to support the yen if required.Japanese household spending fell sharply in December, highlighting the growing drag from higher prices on consumer activity and reinforcing the delicate policy backdrop facing the Bank of Japan.Official data showed household spending dropped 2.9% month-on-month, far weaker than the 1.3% decline expected and reversing November’s strong 6.2% rise. On an annual basis, spending fell 2.6% year-on-year, compared with expectations for flat growth and following a 2.9% increase previously. The figures point to a clear deterioration in consumption momentum at the end of 2025.Analysts say inflation pressures are increasingly weighing on household budgets, particularly as price rises for food, energy and services outpace wage growth for many consumers. December’s weakness suggests households are becoming more cautious, trimming discretionary spending as higher living costs erode real purchasing power.From a policy perspective, the data are unlikely to materially alter the outlook at the Bank of Japan. Markets and analysts broadly view the impact of softer consumption as already factored into the BOJ’s forecasts, with inflation dynamics, rather than growth, remaining the dominant driver of policy decisions. Indeed, some see the spending slump as reinforcing the BOJ’s mandate to contain inflation pressures, rather than delaying normalisation.Market pricing continues to lean toward a possible BOJ rate hike as early as April, with another move potentially later in the year, depending on inflation persistence and wage developments. The December consumption data may add to the debate, but are unlikely on their own to derail expectations of gradual tightening.Separately, Japan’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $1.395 trillion at end-January, signalling that authorities retain substantial firepower. The stockpile suggests the Ministry of Finance and BOJ have ample capacity to stabilise the yen if intervention becomes necessary.Also, Japan's election is on Sunday, February 8. Japan's ruling parties expected to win over 300 seats out of the 465 seats in the lower house election (poll ... one of many pointing to a landslide win for Takaichi). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gold and silver heavy again in Asia morning trade. Earlier ... not bullish:More on CME raises margins on COMEX gold and silver futures after extreme volatilityHang on,. I gotta get this .... This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan Household Spending -2.9% m/m (expected -1.9%, prior +6.2%)I've posted more here, implications for BOJ policy:Japan household spending slumps in December as inflation squeezes consumers (more) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I think the important thing to remember about the White House is that the Secretary of State is Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and a Floridian. There is absolutely no love for Communist Cuba in Florida or the diaspora.In all likelihood, the Venezuelan regime was likely allowed to hold onto power in exchange for cutting off Cuba and allowing American oil companies back in. Recently, Mexico has also said it could stop fuel shipments to Cuba.The island is something the US has wanted for generations and this is likely the moment. The Trump administration has already thumbed its nose at international conventions with no repercussions and Cuba is isolated internationally. Domestically, the economy has buckled under the embargo and many reports say conditions are worsening.Cuba is a state with virtually no allies now and is in the cross-hairs of the most powerful military ever that's just 90 miles offshore. It's not clear how much an appetite Trump has for a fight but I have little doubt that Marco Rubio will push to overthrow the government and it sounds like it could come sooner rather than later.Is there a trade?Cuba is a country of 11 million well-educated people, a low crime rate with some of the nicest beaches anywhere. A new government and good relations with the US would unleash a boom. US money would flow into everything and American tourism would surge. Some of this might draw investment (and people) away from Florida but there's a fair argument that much of it would flow through the state.Much of it depends on what the post-Communist Cuba looks like and how it transitions. We've seen both the good (China's rise) and bad (the post-Soviet disaster). The effort to turn Russia capitalist overnight led to intense corruption and concentration of wealth along with instability and poor growth. My guess is that the US repeats the same mistakes because Trump will want a quick win, but maybe some lessons were learned.If there is a trade in the short-term, it's likely the hotel owners, which are often JVs with Spanish hotel companies. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.