Prior month revised: Job openings 7.449M (revised down -221K from 7.670M)JOLTS job openings: 7.145M, that is down -885K YoYJob openings rate: 4.3%, little changedNovember hires were little changed, holding at 5.1MThe hires rate remained steady at 3.2%Hires decreased in:State & local government ex-education (-39K)State & local government education (-31K)Hires increased in:Federal government (+11K)No significant hiring shifts occurred across most major industriesIn November, total separations were unchanged at 5.1M with a 3.2% rateTotal separations decreased in:State & local government ex-education (-27K)Quits were little changed at 3.2M with a 2.0% rateQuits increased in:Accommodation & food services (+208K)Layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.7M with a 1.1% rateLayoffs and discharges decreased in:Accommodation & food services (-107K)Health care & social assistance (-52K)State & local government ex-education (-26K)Other separations were little changed at 232K, marking a series lowEstablishment size:1–9 employees and 5,000+ employees saw little or no change in job openings, hires, or separationsFor the full report, CLICK HERE.The quick takeaway:The November JOLTS report reinforces the theme of a cooling but still orderly labor market, with job openings holding at 7.146M but continuing their clear downtrend year-over-year, signaling reduced labor demand without a sharp deterioration. Hires and total separations both stuck at 5.1M ironically underscore a labor market that is neither accelerating nor cracking (no hire/no fire). However, the quits rate at 2.0%—well below cycle highs—points to diminished worker bargaining power and less confidence in job switching. Importantly for rates markets, layoffs remain contained and other separations hit a series low, arguing against imminent labor stress. For traders, the data supports a “soft-landing” narrative, limiting urgency for aggressive Fed easing near term while keeping the door open for gradual policy normalization if disinflation continues—leaving USD and yields sensitive to upcoming inflation and payroll data rather than JOLTS alone.Looking at yields: 2-year yield 3.465%, -0.8 basis points 10 year yield 4.151%, -2.7 basis points 30 year yield 4.837%, -2.9 basis pointsUS stocks are mixed after the data with:Dow -0.42%S&P index -0.08%NASDAQ index +0.20% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Highest reading since October 2024Business activity index 54.4 vs 52.6 priorEmployment 52.0 vs 48.9New orders57.9 vs 52.9 priorPrices paid 64.3 vs 65.4 priorSupplier deliveries51.8 vs 54.1 priorInventories54.1 vs 54.8 priorBacklog of orders 42.6 vs 49.1 priorNew export orders 54.2 vs 48.7 priorImports 50.3 vs 48.9 priorInventory sentiment 54.1 54.8 priorJustin wrote a great preview for this report earlier. There has been some recovery in this report since September but it's generally been rangebound over the past two years.Comments in the report:“We continue to experience higher prices, primarily due to the impact of the administration’s trade and tariff policies. We are disproportionately impacted by importing seafood from Southeast Asia and coffee from South America.” [Accommodation & Food Services]“In general, business is flat. Value brands are still experiencing higher demand. But premium brands struggle to maintain market share.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]“Rising labor and staffing shortages across facilities and auxiliary services, increasing regulatory and compliance requirements within the state, continued inflationary pressure on supplies and contracted services, ongoing supply-chain variability for specialized equipment and materials, heightened sustainability expectations and state-led environmental initiatives, fluctuations in enrollment affecting institutional budgets and purchasing volumes, and increased competition and pricing volatility in the regional supplier market.” [Educational Services]“Overall, business is healthy, most of our purchasing is staying consistent, and we are renewing most contracts as we head into the new year.” [Finance & Insurance]“Flu cases on the rise; the vaccine is not of much help this year. Respiratory equipment and supplies are seeing a surge in demand.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]“Annual pricing markups from key service and data providers are higher than they’ve been for many years — gradually drives costs up.” [Information]“Continuing uncertainty and apprehension regarding tariffs and the resulting impact on pricing.” [Public Administration]“We expect flat national home prices in 2026, with a forecast of a 0.5-percent increase and a plausible range from a decrease of 3.6 percent to a gain of 4.6 percent. Many metro areas across the country are already posting year-over-year declines, making 2026 the most likely year since 2010 for a modest national price dip.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]“High business activity due to the holiday season.” [Transportation & Warehousing]“Year-over-year growth has been coming down for the last three months. Most likely, the government shutdown was a contributor.” [Wholesale Trade] This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The forex market is waffling in narrow trading ranges for the major currency pairs. Looking at the low to high ranges shows:EURUSD 30 pipsGBPUSD 35 pipsUSDJPY 50 pipsUSDCHF 24 pipsUSDCAD 26 pipsAUDUSD 50 pipsNZDUSD 22 pips. That is not a lot of price action to trade. Buyers and sellers are battling in looking for the next shove. In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD (Greg Michalowski and author of Attacking Currency Trends). I outline the key levels in play and define the short-term bias, the risk, and the targets for each of those currency pairs.In Australia, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in softer than expected, reinforcing the narrative of easing upstream inflation pressures. On a month-on-month basis, prices were unchanged at 0.0%, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase. On a year-on-year basis, PPI slowed to 3.4%, below the 3.6% forecast and down from 3.8% previously. The data initially pressured the AUD lower as traders reacted to the weaker inflation signal and its implications for the RBA’s policy outlook.However, that downside reaction proved short-lived. The pair quickly reversed course, with buyers stepping back in and driving price to its highest level since early October, peaking at 0.6766. That rebound suggested a degree of resilience in the broader bullish structure, even in the face of softer domestic data. Since topping out, though, momentum has faded and price has rotated back lower, bringing the focus back to near-term support levels.Currently, the pair is testing highs from last week near 0.67268, a level that now acts as an important short-term pivot. A sustained break below that area would tilt the near-term bias more decisively to the downside, shifting trader attention toward the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6705. A move down to—and especially through—that moving-average cluster would be technically significant, as it would give sellers greater control and signal that the post-PPI rebound has likely run its course (see the blue and green lines on the chart).Looking at other markets, US stocks are mixed in premarket trading. The futures are implying:Dow industrial average up 97 points S&P index up 2.68 pointsNASDAQ index -36 pointsIn the commodity markets:Crude oil is trading down $0.40 and $56.89. According to CNBC, citing a White House source, oil sales from Venezuela will continue indefinitely as part of an agreement with the US administration that includes a reduction in sanctions. Under the deal, an initial tranche of 50 million barrels will be sold to the United States, with oil that would have previously gone to China and other buyers being rerouted to the US instead. The proceeds from these sales are expected to benefit both the United States and Venezuela, although no details have been provided regarding the pricing of the oil. US energy secretary Wright is saying that the the US government wants to sell Venezuela in oil and deposit the money into US controlled accounts, but adds that the money from selling th oil will flow back to benefit Venezuelan citizens. E Gold is down $48.60 or -1.10% at $4445. Silver is tumbling $3.80 or -4.7% at $77.34The price of bitcoin is trading down $1600 and $92,109.In the US debt market, yields are moving lower with a flatter yield curve:2-year yield 3.448%, -2.4 basis points5 year yield 3.678%, -4.2 basis points10 year yield 4.127%, -5.1 basis points30 year yield 4.811%, -5.5 basis points.ADP employment report: December hiring rebounds but remains modestPrivate-sector hiring showed a modest rebound in December, with ADP reporting +41,000 jobs, reversing some of November’s softness (-29K revised from -32K) but underscoring a still-cautious labor market. Education and health services (+39k) and leisure and hospitality (+24k) led gains, pointing to strength in people-centric services, while professional and business services (-29k) and information (-12k) were notable drags. By size, mid-sized firms (50–249 employees, +29k) drove most of the improvement, and small businesses returned to growth after November losses (plus 4K), even as large employers (+2k) remained restrained. Overall, December’s ADP report suggests selective hiring, with service industries carrying the load and broader momentum still muted heading into year-end. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was -32KGoods-3K versus -19K last monthService +44K versus -13K last monthsmall business +9K vs -120K prior (6 of the last 7 months have been negative)medium businesses +34K vs +51K last monthlarge businesses +2K vs +39K last monthWages for job stayers +4.4% vs +4.5% last monthWages for job changers 6.6% vs 6.3% last monthThe initial market reaction to the report has been mum but we've seen some small bids in bonds.“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADPSector changes. Education and health +39K vs +30K priorLeisure hospitality +24K vs +13K priorTrade transportation and utilities +11K vs +1K priorFinancial activities +6K vs -9K priorProfessional business services -29K vs- 26K priorAI is coming for the 'professional business services' jobs first. As for much of the year, it's been government-related healthcare jobs holding up while private sector jobs struggle. The next Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payrolls report (Employment Situation) is scheduled for Friday, January 9 at 8:30 am ET as we slowly catch up on economic data after the US government shutdown. The bad news is that there is already talk of another shutdown. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Friday could be an important day for silver: double top or new record highs?Big risks for gold on Friday with US NFP and US Supreme Court on the agendaDollar hangs in the balance as Trump obsesses over Greenland nextDAX 40 rises to new record highs amid positive risk sentiment, softer inflation dataLatest Australian inflation data keeps February interest rate hike on the tableEurozone December preliminary CPI +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y expectedGermany November retail sales -0.6% vs +0.2% m/m expectedGerman construction activity returns to growth at end of 2025French consumer confidence rises slightly in DecemberUK December construction PMI 40.1 vs 42.5 expectedChina gold reserves continue to climb, up for a 14th month runningMarkets:USD mixed, overall FX little changedEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%US 10-year yields down 3.7 bps to 4.141%Gold down 1.1% to $4,447.09WTI crude flat at $57.01Bitcoin down 1.4% to $91,948There wasn't too much in the headlines in European trading today. The handover from Asia saw a higher Australian dollar after the softer but stickier inflation data, reaffirming the potential for a rate hike by the RBA in February. However, those gains fizzled out during the session with AUD/USD dropping off from 0.6760 to 0.6730 levels currently to stay flattish on the day.We also got the Eurozone inflation data for December and that continues to reaffirm the ECB's position to keep on the sidelines for the most part. So, there's nothing new on that front.Instead, the most notable action is a bit of a breather in the hot start to the year for precious metals. Gold is down over 1% to $4,447 while silver is down over 3% to $78.55 on the day as the bulls hit pause.This as the risk rally also starts to flatten out a bit with US futures and European indices posting slight losses on the day. The market attention now slowly shifts to US labour market data, with the main event of the week being the non-farm payrolls release on Friday.In FX, major currencies weren't up to much with the dollar holding in a smaller range and trading little changed across the board. The aussie was the only notable mover early on but as mentioned above, things just fizzled out after.Besides that, there is still some eyes on geopolitical risks with Trump taking aim at Greenland next. So, that will be something to be mindful about in the weeks to come.Otherwise, it's on to the ADP roulette next. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In 2025, the most important event was Trump's "Liberation Day" in April where he announced the reciprocal tariff rates for pretty much all the countries in the world. The tariffs were set so high that they surprised everyone and led to risk aversion in the markets. Given the strong selloff in the US dollar in the first half of 2025, the de-dollarisation narrative gained steam and everyone started to blame de-dollarisation everytime the greenback weakened against the major currencies. The problem is that even if there's a slow trend of diversification from the US dollar, it can't be replaced any time soon. The main driver of the dollar remains the market's outlook for the Federal Reserve monetary policy. Everything else is just noise. In fact, in 2024 the long dollar positioning reached an extreme following Trump's election. The market turned very hawkish on the Federal Reserve and those expectations kept the USD strong. In 2025 though, Trump started to rattle markets with his tariffs agenda that culminated with the Liberation Day in April. The selloff in the US dollar was just caused by the unwinding of extreme long dollar positions and then on the expectations of Fed rate cuts. That's it. In fact, if we look at the monthly DXY chart below, we can see that the selloff in April marked the bottom in the bearish trend and from there we just kept on ranging. Right now, DXY is trading around the April 2025 levels. This year, the market expects the Fed to cut at least two times. This is already priced in, so it's not going to lead to meaningful appreciation or depreciation. The next major move is going to come either from an unwinding of bearish dollar positioning on a hawkish repricing or an increase in rate cut bets if the US labour market or inflation continue to surprise to the downside.Therefore, watch the US data this year but keep also an eye on the US Supreme Court decisions on tariffs and Fed's Cook as they can have an impact on interest rate expectations. On the geopolitical front, the most important thing to keep an eye on is Taiwan because of its critical influence on global tech industry. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The estimate is for the headline PMI reading to drop to 52.3, down from 52.6 in November. That will point to a further moderation in business activity to round up the year, as reflected in the S&P Global PMI report yesterday here. If the ISM print matches the estimate, that will be the softest reading since September last year.Now, overall activity is still expected to remain in expansion territory. So, the reading is not going to point to major trouble but just some moderation in the growth momentum.Looking at yesterday's report by S&P Global, there are a couple of key downside points to note. For one, new orders were especially weak as new business placed at services providers showed the smallest rise in some 20 months. That points to some softening in demand conditions and one that could extend into the new year.The other key point is that employment conditions stagnated on the month, failing to rise for the first time since February. S&P Global noted that the fall is negligible but it does put an end to a nine-month sequence of continuous growth. Of note, cost concerns, budget constraints and the downturn in demand growth were cited as reasons for the lackluster trend in employment.So, those are some things to watch out for when we get to the ISM report later.Besides that, one of the more focal points will be the prices paid component - which fell quite sharply in November. In fact, the drop from 70.0 in October to 65.4 in November represents the largest in 21 months. That saw the component drop to its lowest since April but is still sitting well above historical levels.What about December then?MNI notes that the signal is a little more mixed based on regional Fed surveys. They note that Dallas was the only one of five Fed surveys to report a dip in prices paid from November to December. Meanwhile, New York and Philly reported noticeable upticks in prices paid pressures. At the balance, it points to a slightly higher prices paid gauge this time around.So, that is likely to help deflect the sharp drop in November as prices stabilise in December; that is if things play out expectedly. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:DAX 40 rises above the 25,000 levelSofter Eurozone inflation eases ECB tightening risks Positive risk sentiment keeps the bulls in chargeUS Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs could spark a rally in risk assetsFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe German DAX has finally broken out of the 2025 range and extended the gains into new record highs above the 25,000 level. The risk sentiment has been positive in the past few days, and a couple of economic data gave the bulls more conviction to keep pushing into new highs.In fact, we just got the latest inflation readings for Germany and Eurozone as a whole, and they showed a welcome easing. One of the biggest risks for 2026 has been the risk of earlier than expected rate hikes. The softer inflation data not only eases the tightening risk but also gives traders hope for more rate cuts down the road. Couple that with easing tariff uncertainty and fiscal boost and you get a positive outlook for the stock market.Moreover, yesterday the US Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an opinion day, which could see a decision on Trump’s tariffs. In case the tariffs are struck down, the DAX is likely to rally on expected better global growth. On the other hand, if tariffs are kept in place, it shouldn’t change much given that the markets have already adjusted to the tariffs.DAX 40 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the DAX (CFD contract) broke out of the 2025 range and extended the gains above the 25,000 level. The buyers piled in on the breakout with a defined risk below the resistance-turned-support. The sellers will now need to see the price falling back below the previous all-time high to regain some control and start positioning for a drop back into the 23,000 level.DAX 40 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a couple of upward trendlines defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the support zone around the 24,700 level, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for downside breaks to target new lows.DAX 40 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. Aggressive buyers might lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, although from risk to reward perspective, the area around the major support would offer a much better dip-buying opportunity. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a pullback into the major support.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ADP, the US ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It would be unprecedented if it were to happen, but the same can be said for a lot of things during Trump's presidency. As a reminder, Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark and part of the NATO alliance. So if the US tries to pull off something, expect there to be a lot of protest and condemnation especially from Europe.In trying to understand the potential impact in the major currencies space - the dollar in particular - if the US does try to claim Greenland, it arguably can be broken down into two phases.The first being the initial reaction to it all. Geopolitical conflict often ties to risk-off sentiment and typically is a positive for the dollar. Safety bids will come in amid the more defensive risk mood and that's also what we saw with the situation in Venezuela.That being said, I would expect the flows here to be rather short-lived. And perhaps in this event, maybe only for a couple of hours at best. The thing is, markets now have some time to digest the whole thing before it actually happens. And so even when it does, the market flow can quickly move to the next part which is where the macro picture comes into play.In pulling off such a stunt, Trump risks a major breakdown in global alliance and trust. Not just in terms of politics, but also for the dollar's status as a reserve currency. The collective framework in which the global financial system is built around the dollar will now be threatened as the US becomes an unstable player in world politics - even more so than it already is.That will likely see many countries accelerate their push to de-dollarise and shifting their reserves elsewhere.And that means potentially shifting towards the likes of the euro and Chinese yuan. However, the simplest argument remains one that is right in front of us and that has been shining brightly for the last two years. And that is gold once again.In this instance, I would argue that gold is the ultimate safe haven asset. It's just everything about it.- Increasing geopolitical conflict ✓- De-dollarisation picking up ✓- Higher premium to hold US debt and further weakening in US fiscal position ✓Circling back to the dollar, just be mindful of the potential spike and release reaction that could follow if we do see the unprecedented happen. Never say never in markets. And never say never when it comes to Trump. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:Suspected RBI intervention boosted the Indian RupeeIndia's central bank actions not enough to stop the INR depreciationRenewed tensions on the tariffs front remain a negative for the RupeeUS dollar bounces around as traders await the US NFP report on FridayFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been bouncing around in the past couple of days as traders continue to wait for the US NFP report on Friday. We got a soft US ISM Manufacturing PMI recently that weighed on the greenback but the losses were erased in the following days. In terms of macro, nothing has changed in these two weeks. The latest NFP and CPI reports came both on the softer side and the market is still pricing 62 bps of easing by year-end. The data in December was taken with a pinch of salt given the shutdown related issues, but the next releases will give us a clearer picture. The market expects the Fed to cut in March at the earliest, so we will need very soft data this month to force them to act sooner. Nonetheless, if the data continues to come in on the softer side, the market will likely increase the total easing for 2026 and that should continue to weigh on the US dollar.On the other hand, if the data strengthens, traders will likely pare back their rate cut bets and that will likely offer the greenback some support.INR:The Indian Rupee jumped today following a suspected RBI intervention. The Indian central bank has been intervening more frequently recently but the bearish pressure on the Rupee is expected to remain due to structural headwinds. On Monday, Trump threatened more tariffs on India “if they don’t help on Russian oil issue”, so the tensions on the trade front continue to be a negative for the currency. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the price couldn’t extend the rally into the key 90.40 level as RBI’s intervention pushed the pair lower. Nevertheless, the upside should remain intact, and the buyers will likely step back in around the 89.70 area where we can find a strong support and the lower bound of the rising channel. The sellers, on the other hand, will need the price to break out of the channel to extend the drop into the 88.90 level next.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the strong push lower today following the suspected RBI intervention. Again, the buyers will likely step in around the 89.70 support zone with a defined risk below the lower bound of the channel to position for a rally into the 92.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 88.90 level next.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for dip-buying opportunities around the 89.70 level and the bottom of the channel, while the sellers will wait for a breakout to pile in for new lows.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ADP, the US ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.1%Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y expectedPrior +2.4%Headline annual inflation eased slightly to hit the 2% mark with core annual inflation also easing marginally. Still, it's no time to celebrate just yet and the ECB knows that very well. Services inflation remains the key sticking point, coming in at 3.4% in December. That is slightly better than in November (3.5%) but remains well above what it was from the middle of last year (around 3.2%). On the month itself, services inflation moved up by 0.7%.All of this continues to point towards the narrative that the ECB won't feel the rush nor the pressure to act any time soon. That especially since the German economy is still flagging in the meantime while waiting for the fiscal kick with inflation pressures still largely persisting in the region's largest economy.So, carry on as you will as the ECB will be staying on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.EUR/USD holds little changed on the day at 1.1686 with not much appetite among major currencies today. The dollar is pretty much trading flattish across the board as we await the US ADP employment change and ISM services PMI later in the day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 39.4The decline in UK construction activity was less pronounced in December but it's still a terrible end to the year for the sector. There were sharp falls once again in housing, commercial and civil engineering activity as incoming new work remains subdued. Civil engineering (32.9) was the weakest-performing category of construction activity in December, and that is despite recording a softer rate of contraction than in November. Meanwhile, both housing activity (33.5) and commercial construction (42.0) decreased to the greatest extent since May 2020. Ouch.The only positive footnote is that business activity expectations rebounded to five-month high. But that's about it.S&P Global notes that:"UK construction companies once again reported challenging business conditions and falling workloads in December, but the speed of the downturn moderated from the five-and-a-half-year record seen in November. Many firms cited subdued demand and fragile client confidence. Despite a lifting of Budget-related uncertainty, delayed spending decisions were still cited as contributing to weak sales pipelines at the close of the year. "By sector, latest data indicated the fastest reductions in housing and commercial construction since May 2020, while civil engineering was the only segment to signal a slower pace of decline than in the previous month. "Total new orders nonetheless decreased to a much lesser degree than in November, while business activity expectations for the year ahead rebounded to a fivemonth high. Some survey respondents attributed greater optimism to projections of rising infrastructure spending, especially in the utilities sector. There were also hopes that lower borrowing costs and easing inflationary pressures could boost demand across the construction sector. "Supplier performance meanwhile improved for the fifth month running, largely due to lower input buying. This also contributed to a slowdown in purchasing price inflation to its weakest since October 2024." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:Silver remains supported amid geopolitical tensions, weak US data and dovish Fed expectationsRisks in the short-term include the US NFP report on Friday and potential US Supreme Court decision on tariffsBig picture uptrend should remain intact amid the Fed's dovish reaction functionPrice chart shows a possible double top in the makingFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSilver has been the hottest asset of 2025. The fundamentals are the same as for gold, but silver is more volatile. The precious metal continues to be supported by the geopolitical tensions, the weak US data and the dovish Fed expectations. The bullish momentum remains intact, but we have two important events on Friday that could challenge that.In fact, on Friday we get the latest US NFP report and while the previous report might have been taken with a pinch of salt due to shutdown related issues, this one should give us a clearer picture. Strong data might lead to a bigger pullback as traders push back on expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut, while soft figures should keep on supporting the upside.Moreover, yesterday the US Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an opinion day, which could see a decision on Trump’s tariffs. In case the tariffs are struck down, silver will likely fall amid easing stagflation risks. On the other hand, if tariffs are kept in place, it shouldn’t change much although it would keep the upside intact. In the bigger picture, silver should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function. But in the short term, a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations could weigh on the market.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver recovered all the losses from last week’s selloff and touched the all-time highs. Is this going to be a double top or will we see new record highs ahead? The sellers will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk above the all-time high to position for a drop into the 69.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 69.00 handle.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the upward trendline that was defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. This could be a signal of a loss of momentum and a bigger pullback in the cards. The sellers piled in on the break targeting a drop into the major trendline. The buyers have a mixed picture here and will need to wait for a pullback into the major trendline or a break above the all-time high.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ADP, the US ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Germany December construction PMI 50.3Prior 45.2That's some positive news at least for the German economy, with the jump higher here driven by a further increase in civil engineering activity. Of note, activity in this segment registered its strongest rate of expansion since March 2011. Besides that, the drag on total activity from the housing sector eased considerably as work on residential projects fell at the slowest rate since March 2022. And adding to that, employment conditions also ticked up for a second month in a row.All that being said, this is just one reading. Firms' expectations towards activity in the year ahead remained subdued and that will keep any optimism towards the outlook more limited for now.HCOB notes that:“The construction sector experienced a surprisingly positive end to last year. For the first time since March 2022, the total activity index has moved into expansion territory. This is partly thanks to a sharp boost in civil engineering. But it also seems that sentiment in the previously battered residential construction sector is starting to turn. We may be seeing signs that the housing sector is emerging from a deep recession, with activity now only edging down slightly. To keep things in perspective, this is just one monthly figure, and the time series has shown big swings before. Still, the sharp rise in building permits recently reported by the Federal Statistical Office gives hope that this isn’t just a one-off. “The strong acceleration in civil engineering activity suggests that the infrastructure measures announced by the federal government are finally moving into the implementation phase. This applies especially to transport infrastructure - roads, bridges, and rail. Growth hiccups are still possible in civil engineering in 2026, but as the year progresses, the growth path should stabilize as more projects get underway. This trend will likely mean that resources from less busy construction segments will increasingly be deployed in civil engineering. Notably, employment in the construction sector has been rising again for two months, after the last expansion nearly four years ago."Building continues to get more expensive. Construction costs rose a bit more sharply in December than in the previous month. Combined with relatively high long-term interest rates, which is a key factor, especially for residential construction, this acts as a dampener. And given the ECB’s communication, short-term rates aren’t expected to fall anytime soon, which doesn’t help either.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:Gold remains supported amid geopolitical tensions and weak US dataRisks in the short-term include the US NFP report on Friday and potential US Supreme Court decision on tariffsBig picture uptrend should remain intact amid the Fed's dovish reaction functionFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold continues to be supported by the geopolitical tensions and the weak US data. The bullish momentum for now remains intact but the US NFP report on Friday could challenge that. In fact, while the previous report might have been taken with a pinch of salt due to shutdown related issues, this one should give us a clearer picture. Strong data might lead to a bigger pullback as traders push back on expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut, while soft figures should keep on supporting the upside.Moreover, yesterday the US Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an opinion day, which could see a decision on Trump’s tariffs. In case the tariffs are struck down, gold will likely fall amid easing stagflation risks. On the other hand, if tariffs are kept in place, it shouldn’t change much although it would keep the upside intact. In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function. But in the short term, a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations could weigh on the market.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold recovered almost all the losses from last week’s selloff. Nevertheless, from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 3887 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 4400 level. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely step in around the support with a defined risk below the minor trendline to position for a rally into new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have the lower bound of the average daily range for today standing right around the support. This should give the buyers more conviction to pile in around the support in case we get a pullback into it. The sellers, on the other hand, will need a break below the trendline to open the door for a bigger pullback into the major trendline.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ADP, the US ISM Services PMI and the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs.VIDEO This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

China gold reserves at the end of December: 74.15 million troy ounces ↑In November: 74.12 million troy ouncesChina gold reserves value at the end of December: $319.45 billion ↑In November: 310.65 billionThe streak continues with this being a cycle that started all the way back in November 2024. Central bank buying has been a key reason in underpinning the price of gold over the past year and China is arguably at the forefront of it all. As mentioned before, there are suspicions that Beijing is buying way more than what is advertised. So, make what you will of the numbers above.But as we look to the new year, fiscal concerns in major economies alongside the de-dollarisation push will continue to prompt central banks to stick with gold buying. As such, don't expect this driver to dissipate any time soon.After a hot start to the new year, gold is taking a bit of a breather today with price down 0.7% to $4,465 currently. The low earlier today touched $4,441 as the latest bounce starts to run into some selling pressures.Going long in precious metals is arguably the heaviest consensus trade to start the year and with anything that has such one-sided sentiment, they can be dangerous on any pullbacks. So, just be mindful of that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

France December consumer confidence 90 vs 90 expectedPrior 89The reading marks a slight improvement in household sentiment, though continuing to rest well below the long-term average of 100. For some context, the last time that French consumer confidence hit that mark was all the way back in October 2021.Looking at the details, households' opinion on past standard of living (-70) in France rebounded but the one related to future standard of living (-57) eased slightly on the month. Both remain well below their respective long-term averages as well.Meanwhile, unemployment fears also eased with the reading (45) continuing to drop off after peaking in June (57). Household sentiment towards inflation also picked up with the balance of opinion of households who consider that prices have risen sharply over the past twelve months climbing to its highest since February 2025.Overall, it points to French consumer confidence not really showing much optimism last year but at least there is some improvement in fortunes after a rather worrying period in the first half of the year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the main highlight is going to be the Eurozone Flash CPI report. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.0% vs 2.1% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.4% vs 2.4% prior. Yesterday, we got some soft figures out of France and especially Germany. The expectations are likely skewed to the downside.In terms of monetary policy, the data is not going to change anything for the ECB as the central bank remains comfortably on the sidelines. ECB members repeated many times that they won't respond to small or short-term deviations from their 2% target and the next policy move could be in either direction. The market pricing shows a strong consensus for the ECB to remain on hold for the entire year.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we get a few top tier US economic releases. The US ADP is expected at 47K vs -32K prior. The ADP has been on a weak streak since last June. We haven't seen so many negative monthly figures since 2020. The consensus is still for a "low firing, low hiring" labour market as shown also by the stable jobless claims data, but as Fed's Kashkari pointed out recently, there's also a risk that the unemployment rate could spike.The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 52.3 vs 52.6 prior. The S&P Global US Services PMI showed business activity weakening in December although remaining in expansion. The more worrying part was that input costs and selling prices "increased sharply". The Fed is trying to balance a weaker labour market with above target inflation, and if these two continue to diverge, it's going to be tricky for monetary policy. The US Job Openings are expected at 7.600M vs 7.670M. The prior report beat expectations by a big margin but the quits rate fell to the lowest level since 2020. Quits typically rise when workers feel confident they can easily find another job. The decline signals a weak labour market under the surface. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The forex market, once driven mainly by interest rates and GDP figures, has reached a turning point as it is now increasingly influenced by sustainability considerations. To this point, an estimated $30 trillion is currently held in assets aligned with ESG criteria globally, signalling a structural shift in how capital is allocated. Therefore, countries demonstrating strong environmental policies and transparent governance are becoming more attractive to long-term foreign investors, especially with sustainability metrics beginning to play a growing role in shaping sovereign risk perception and capital confidence.The European Central Bank (ECB), for instance, has already integrated climate considerations into its monetary policy, helping the Euro gain serious favor among ESG-focused institutional investors in the process. Moreover, nations like Norway have expanded their renewable energy capacity, including a 45 billion kroner investment in offshore wind projects, positioning its native currency as a beneficiary of the ongoing ESG capital inflows. Exploring the evolution of sustainable trading infrastructureOver the last couple of years traders are increasingly gaining access to sophisticated filtering systems that overlay sovereign ESG scores onto holistic technical and fundamental analysis frameworks. Trade W, for example, offers traders access to 100 financial instruments through a mobile-first platform designed for the next generation of market participants. With more than five million active users across fifty regions and a monthly trading volume approaching sixty billion dollars, its native architecture reflects the broader industry movement toward reducing the carbon footprint associated with financial services.That said, the quantitative evidence supporting ESG integration in forex has continued to strengthen in recent years as evidenced by the robust performance of sustainable funds that posted median returns of 12.5% over the first half of 2025 (across equities, bonds, and mixed assets) compared to 9.2% for their traditional counterparts. Even ESG-enhanced instruments like green bonds have started representing an increasing portion of the global forex market, thus indirectly enabling traders to capitalize on ESG themes on daily timeframes. Similarly, ESG investing too is projected to reach $167.49 trillion by 2034 (from its current levels of $35.48 trillion), signalling that institutional rebalancing toward high-ESG jurisdictions will continue to reshape currency valuations in the near to mid term. Problems still persist but nothing that can’t be tackled with easeDespite these developments, unique challenges remain when it comes to ESG adoption in forex, especially given the short-term nature of many forex trades and how they conflict with the multi-year horizon over which ESG factors typically manifest. But the reality is messier and more interesting than that tension alone suggests.Take Brazil's real (BRL) for example. Between 2024 and 2025, even though deforestation fell by 11% yoy, hitting the lowest annual clearing rate since 2014 as President Lula's environmental policies took hold. Yet the currency did not uniformly strengthen for the simple reason that forex markets priced in competing risks. However, at the same time, currencies from genuinely high-ESG jurisdictions captured premium flows, with the Swiss franc (CHF) hitting a 14-year high against the US dollar in September, driven not by interest rates (which were at near zero) but by investor demand for ESG stability. Similarly, New Zealand's dollar (NZD) has been trading as a proxy for renewable energy credibility, backed by its well established Emissions Trading Scheme and carbon pricing mechanisms.The data doesn't lieOn the fund side of things, the outperformance spoke for itself with Tocqueville Dividende ISR posting returns of nearly 20% through Q1 2025, beating both the Morningstar Global TME Index and the MSCI ACWI Large Cap Index. Beyond individual funds, renewable energy-focused sustainable funds dominated the roost (particularly in May), with eight of these funds averaging 15.8% returns versus 4.2% for the broader sustainable fund universe. Not only that, the tools to track this in real time are now accessible with remote sensing satellites providing imagery at a 1-meter resolution range, thus allowing traders to literally watch environmental policy enforcement or reversals as they happen.In practical terms what this means is that a trader monitoring the World Bank's Sovereign ESG Data Portal could have potentially identified New Zealand's strengthening carbon policy implementation in Q2 2025 (tracking actual emissions reductions and regulatory data) and establish a long NZD position ahead of the subsequent institutional capital rotation. Last but not least, for traders looking to build real positions, the infrastructure now exists with the Luxembourg Stock Exchange's ESG bond database tracking over 20,000 sustainable instruments, updated continuously. These aren't theoretical data troves. They're live, updated daily, available to any trader willing to use. Therefore, as these tools mature and become more accessible, retail traders have something institutional players have long protected jealously, i.e. the ability to trade on real-time ESG shifts before they fully price into markets. In simple terms, the barrier isn't data anymore. It's knowing where to look! This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.3%; revised to +0.3%Retail sales +1.1% vs +0.9% y/y expectedPrior +0.9%; revised to +1.6%That's a steep drop in retail sales, missing on estimates but the blow is softened by a more positive revision to the October figure at least. The breakdown shows a drop in retail sales of food products (-1.9%) with the non-food retail sector posting slight growth in sales (+0.3%).The German stats office notes that 2025 retail sales is seen at +2.4% in real terms, based on their preliminary estimates. The range is projected somewhere between +2.3% to +2.6% in real terms for better accuracy. Looking into more detail, retail sales in the first half of 2025 showed a growth of around 3.8% before slowing in the second half of the year to 1.1%.The jump in the first half of the year is noted to be attributed to a one-off effect resulting from the restructuring of a large online and mail-order company in August 2024, among other things. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.