Fundamental OverviewThe USD sold off across the board on Friday as Fed Chair Powell tilted more dovish by saying that “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”That saw traders firming up expectations for a rate cut in September which now stands around 82% probability with a total of 54 bps of easing by year-end. Overall, it’s not the repricing in interest rates expectations that weighed on the greenback but hedges being unwound.Now, the focus turns to the US NFP report next week which is going to be crucial and will influence greatly interest rates expectations. Strong data might take the probability for a September cut towards a 50/50 chance but will certainly see a more hawkish repricing further down the curve. Soft data, on the other hand, will likely see traders increasing the dovish bets with a third cut by year-end being priced in.On the CHF side, we haven’t got anything new in terms of monetary policy as the SNB is now in a long pause. The latest Swiss CPI showed a slight improvement in inflation although it wasn't important as the central bank will not hike rates for a long time. The market doesn’t expect the SNB to cut anymore. There’s some focus at the moment on the 39% tariffs that the US slapped on Switzerland. That is likely to be resolved in the near future with the rate being set between 10-20% as we’ve seen for most other countries. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the 0.8020 support following Powell’s dovish tilt but eventually the market erased most of the losses as the focus turned to the US data, which is going to be the ultimate judge. If the price rallies all the way back to the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.82 handle next. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. If we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsTodaywe have the US Consumer Confidence report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq Futures Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (August 26, 2025)Current price (NQ): 23,437 (≈-0.25% vs. yesterday’s close) Recent context: All-time high on Aug 13 at 24,068.50, a 5-day pullback of -4.32% to 23,035 (near the 23k round number), a 2-day bounce to 23,650 (pivot), and now trading just beneath an important July pivot zone around 23,425–23,450.Summary for Nasdaq 100 Futures Traders TodayDecision Range: 23,445 – 23,480 (key cluster of levels) Bearish below: 23,463 (yesterday’s VAL single-price option) Bullish above: 23,513 (today’s POC) Primary bias: Bearish while price holds below the Decision RangeSizing tip: If a 35-point band feels wide, trade the micro contract (MNQ). One MNQ “point” is 1/10th the dollar value of the E-mini, letting you express the same idea with tighter sizing.Analysis of Nasdaq Futures Today: Market Context & Directional BiasPrice sits below the 23,445–23,480 Decision Range, keeping the session tilted bearish unless buyers reclaim the band. For traders who prefer a single trigger, the bearish threshold is 23,463 (below yesterday’s Value Area Low), while bulls need to sustain above 23,513 (today’s Point of Control) to argue for upside continuation toward the upper pivots cited below.Partial Profit Targets for Nasdaq Bears Today (once price is below our bearish threshold)23,417 — aligns with the 2nd lower VWAP deviation; frequent intraday magnet when momentum builds. 23,400 — round-number liquidity pocket where stops often cluster. 23,374 — nearby acceptance zone that can stall first legs.Swing-extension waypoints for bears (if momentum persists): 23,312 — just above Aug 22 VAH; prior acceptance often retests. 23,276 — in line with Aug 24 VWAP; fair-value pullback idea. 23,226 — set above Aug 22 POC to capture reaction risk. 23,123 — above Aug 22 VAL; deeper test of that value area.Stop logic for shorts: Your maximum protective stop should not sit beyond the top of the Decision Range (23,482), because acceptance above that band weakens the short premise. Conservative traders may even key off a 15-min close above 23,513 (today’s POC) as full invalidation.Partial Profit Targets for Nasdaq Bulls Today (once price sustains above our bullish threshold)23,531 — today’s VWAP; first fair-value magnet overhead. 23,543 — yesterday’s VAH; typical reaction level after reclaiming POC/VWAP. 23,575 — set just below Aug 20 VAH to front-run supply. 23,665 — just below Aug 12 VAL; higher-timeframe inflection. 23,695 — final swing target in this compass; beyond here awaits a new tradeCompass.Stop logic for longs: A break back below 23,445 (bottom of the Decision Range) returns price to bearish territory—longs should not persist beneath the opposite bias.How to Use This CompassIf price probes the Decision Range but fails to hold above it, shorts remain favored.If price accepts above 23,513 (POC), the bull plan activates; use the targets listed and manage risk as below.One trade per direction per tradeCompass. If you took the short plan and later got stopped at breakeven after partials, you do not re-short in this same compass. The same applies to the long plan.Trade Management Essentials (read this!)Take partials at logical magnets (VWAP, VAH/VAL, round numbers) to bank progress and lower stress.After the second target is achieved, move your stop to entry—standard tradeCompass protocol.Stops are tied to bias: never beyond the opposite side’s invalidation (e.g., above the Decision Range for shorts).Confirmations are flexible: some wait for a 5–15 minute close through thresholds; others use order-flow cues. Choose what fits your playbook.Quick Education: Why Partial Profits Matter (today’s lesson)Markets often react at institutional price landmarks—VWAP, POC, VAH/VAL, and round-number liquidity pools. Scaling out at those junctions converts open risk into realized gain and gives you optionality for the runner. It’s not about perfection; it’s about systematically harvesting edges where big players transact.tradeCompass is a decision-support framework. It does not tell you what to do; it maps the terrain so you can act with intent. Trade at your own risk. Futures are volatile, and losses can exceed deposits.Stay updated & get ideas: Join our Telegram channel investingLive Stocks. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Credit Agricole is now penciling in two rate cuts by the Fed for this year, one in September and one in December. But unlike other houses, they are expecting a much higher terminal rate with them anticipating an extended pause in policy with a target rate of 4.00%.The firm's argument is that sticky inflation would see more limited room for the Fed to pursue aggressive easing and while the US economy is slowing, it is not falling into a recession yet.Credit Agricole argues that tariffs passthrough will see inflation re-accelerate albeit likely to be temporary. However, the labour market remains relatively healthy despite what recent figures might suggest and that will allow the Fed more room to not give in to calls for a more aggressive easing cycle. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Barclays' month-end rebalancing model is indicating weak dollar selling against most major currencies, while remaining neutral against the euro and yen. Of note, US bonds and equities are the bigger drivers of flows as opposed to the Jackson Hole communication pivot last week."Overall, both US bonds and equities have registered marginal month to date gains, with the large market cap in the latter dominating our month-end model and inducing a weak dollar-selling signal against most majors."The euro and yen are facing a more neutral bias though, amid relative outperformance in European and Japanese bond markets helping to offset the weak selling pressure on the dollar, according to Barclays. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx -1.1%Germany DAX -0.7%France CAC 40 -1.7%UK FTSE -0.7%Spain IBEX -0.7%Italy FTSE MIB -1.1%The risk mood remains on the defensive with US futures also slipping as we get things underway in European trading. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% after yesterday's fall, as the pressure begins to build going into month-end. For the CAC 40, the drop today more than erases the monthly gain before this week as the index is now down 1% in August overall. From earlier: French stocks set for another steep drop at the open as political crisis weighs This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewGold rallied strongly on Friday as Fed Chair Powell tilted more dovish by saying that “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”That saw traders firming up expectations for a rate cut in September and a total of two cuts by year-end. Now, the focus turns to the US NFP report next week which is going to be crucial and will influence greatly interest rates expectations. Strong data might take the probability for a September cut towards a 50/50 chance but will certainly see a more hawkish repricing further down the curve and weigh on gold. Soft data, on the other hand, will likely see traders increasing the dovish bets with a third cut by year-end being priced in and giving gold a boost.In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing given their dovish reaction function. In the short-term though, hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations will likely keep on triggering corrections.Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that gold continues to trade right in the middle of the range defined by the key 3,438 resistance and the 3,245 support. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe as market participants will likely continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side. We need to zoom in to see some more details.Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got a rally on Friday and then a pullback yesterday into the most recent swing level at 3,350. The buyers stepped in around the swing level to position for further upside into the resistance. If we were to get another pullback, the buyers will likely pile in around the swing level again, while the sellers will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the 3,245 support next.Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here. On an intraday basis, we have a minor resistance around the 3,379 level. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the major resistance, while the sellers will likely pile in around these levels with a defined risk above the resistance to target the 3,350 swing level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday we have the US Consumer Confidence report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index. Watch the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 89; revised to 88French household confidence dips further in August, falling to its lowest since October 2023. Unemployment expectations continue to stay elevated while the opinion on the standard of living also declined further. On the latter, the sub-index for the future standard of living declined another two points to -64 - its lowest since March 2023. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

French CAC 40 futures are now down 0.7% on the day and are continuing the declines from yesterday, in which the benchmark index closed lower by 1.5%. That is threatening to undo the gains this month, after the impressive rebound following the 1 August dip.The catalyst for the drop this week is a political one with Europe's second largest economy set to face another crisis on that front. French prime minister, François Bayrou, is under intense scrutiny over his unpopular measures to address concerns surrounding France's public finances. For some context, France's budget deficit touched 5.8% of GDP last year, almost double the limit set out by the EU of 3%.Bayrou is calling for €44 billion in cuts in the 2026 budget guidelines and that hasn't gone down well to say the least. That being said, he is bold though in calling for a vote to run this all down on 8 September. If he fails, it's basically a vote of no confidence in Bayrou itself and that pin France down into deeper political shambles.That especially after what was seen last year already, in which Barnier's government didn't even survive longer than three months. And now, another change looks imminent. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda. Markets will either stay rangebound into next week's labour market data or keep fading the Jackson Hole moves.In the American session, we have the US Durable Goods Orders and the US Consumer Confidence report. Durable goods data is rarely a market-moving release because it's a very volatile data set, so the focus will be on consumer confidence.The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 96.2 vs 97.2 prior. The prior report indicated an improvement in consumer confidence, especially in the expectations index. Overall, the data continues to improve as things get better in the economy as seen also in the latest US PMIs. This is often a market-moving report but we will likely need big deviations to get some sustained moves. The most important data this week is just the US Jobless Claims figures on Thursday. Then the focus will turn to the labour market data due next week that will culminate with the NFP report.Central bank speakers:12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Fed's Barkin (neutral - non voter)16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - BoE's Mann (neutral - voter)18:45 GMT/14:45 ET - BoC's Macklem (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures -0.3%US futures might be little changed today but the mood music is more tepid after the retreat from Wall Street yesterday. European stocks also ended lower yesterday with French shares leading the declines. It's been a good August for equities in general but month-end will provide one last hurdle to get through this week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Morgan Stanley previously expected no rate cuts by the Fed for this year but have now revised their forecast and is expecting two rate cuts by year-end. They are penciling in one for September and the other for December. Following which, they see the Fed cutting further once every quarter in 2026 to reach a terminal target range of 2.75% to 3.00%. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The only item on the economic calendar in Europe today is the French consumer confidence report for July. That will be due at 0645 GMT. Besides that, it's pretty much an empty calendar day once again. However, that is not to say that traders and investors won't have much to digest.The big news since overnight trading was US president Trump announcing that he will fire Fed governor Cook. That sent the dollar spiraling lower initially before traders mapped out the feasibility of Trump's decision. There will be legal hurdles to get through that could take some time but for now at best, Cook may be incapacitated in her position as Fed governor.Besides that, there is also the further steepening in the US yield curve post-Jackson Hole here. It is one that is quietly making waves but worth noting in case it becomes of something in the weeks ahead.For today, it seems like it might be another quieter session as markets also calm down following the Trump drama. In Europe, things will only really heat up on Friday with inflation numbers to go alongside month-end flows. So, do be wary about that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fed chair Powell might have produced a dovish tilt at the end of last week but that's not stopping the yield curve from steepening further. But what does this all mean exactly? Well, let's take a look to try and make sense of what is going on.The yield curve between the US 10-year and 2-year yields is now at its steepest since May while the yield curve between US 30-year and 2-year yields is now at its steepest since 2022. It is clear of the direction this is all heading and has been going since last year. That said, this is coming despite getting confirmation of the Fed stance of wanting to ease monetary policy and the fact that inflation has come down from the highs previously.So, what gives?In simple terms, it reflects the notion that the market is factoring rate cuts in the short-term but in the long-term is still pricing in a inflation/growth premium. In this case, I would argue that it is mostly about inflation.As the Fed pursues a rate cut in September, they seem to be looking to spin the narrative to frame inflation in the same 'transitory' manner that most central banks did during the Covid pandemic rebound/boom. In this case, the word they seem to be adhering to is 'temporary'. And clearly from what we're seeing, the bond market is not quite buying that.In thinking about the steepening of the yield curve, it's a signal that the Fed might be making a policy mistake. The result of what we're seeing now is akin to a bull steepener, but one that is playing out not because of slowing inflation but rather stagflation risks. It's a unique scenario in that sense that one could easily overlook.As market players anticipate a softer economic outlook and more stubborn inflation, the Fed reaction function is what will define the shape of the yield curve. And in signaling rate cuts for next month, it's easy to see why short-term yields will fall but long-term yields hold up a bit better because inflation expectations remain elevated.The risks associated here are nothing quite like the 1970s I would imagine. However, the parallels we're seeing in terms of how the events are playing out are rather uncanny.So, keep this in mind when looking at broader market sentiment as well. The Fed continues to focus more on honouring the Fed put it would seem more than anything else. But at some point, you have to pay the piper. And the bond market is saying that the bill is starting to stack up now.And guess which asset class would stand to benefit from this the most? Oh, yes. Gold again. That's another major tailwind for the commodity and why there remains such a bullish fundamental case for gold. ? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.