Activity Stream
NuWays AG: R. STAHL AG: Buy
Original-Research: R. STAHL AG - from NuWays AG
23.10.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to R. STAHL AG
Company Name:
R. STAHL AG
ISIN:
DE000A1PHBB5
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
23.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 29.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Christian Sandherr
Solid Q3 preview // FY guidance in reach
Topic: R. Stahl will release its Q3 report on November 6th. We expect moderate sales growth and a slight decrease in EBIT from a high comparable base.
Sales are expected to come in at € 90m, 4.7% above last year (eNuW), supported by a lower but still solid order backlog of € 121m end of H1’24. EBIT is seen to come in at € 7.5m (-12% yoy), leading to a sound 8.3% EBIT margin (-1.5ppts yoy).
While extraordinary costs from the EXcelerate strategy program should be lower in Q3 and Q4, as already 80% of the costs have occurred, an increase in personnel costs could put pressure on profitability. We expect an increase from € 33.6m in Q3’23 up to € 36.0m (40% of sales vs. 37.6% in Q3’23), of which c. 70% should be attributable to wage inflation and 30% to a higher headcount (1,754 end of H1’24 vs. 1,715 end of H1’23).
Solid order intake expected: After the subdued order intake in H2’23, driven by active destocking activities from customers due to an increasing stabilization of global supply chains and a muted European chemical industry, order intake in H1’24 recovered from a low level (€ 181m in H1’24 vs. € 157m in H2’23). As demand in the chemical industry is slightly picking up and thanks to structural trends such as LNG and nuclear, we expect order intake to remain on a solid level (eNuW: € 88m).
FY sales and adj. EBITDA guidance in reach: Management forecasts sales in the range of € 335-350m (eNuW: € 349m) and an adj. EBITDA of € 35-45m (eNuW: € 40m). The forecast looks reasonable to us and might be even a bit conservative on the top-line carried by an unbroken demand for electrical explosion protection solutions in the LNG and gas industry and a solid order backlog.
R. Stahl’s mid-term prospects remain bright as the company strongly benefits from (1) its superior market share along the LNG value chain, (2) a rising need for production automation across offshore oil and gas rigs, and production plants of several industries and (3) the ongoing nuclear renaissance across Europe.
We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT of € 29.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31091.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2013917 23.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: 123fahrschule SE: Buy
Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE - from NuWays AG
22.10.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE
Company Name:
123fahrschule SE
ISIN:
DE000A2P4HL9
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
22.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 7.20
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Philipp Sennewald
Legislation changes to fuel further growth
Yesterday, we held a digital roundtable with 123fahrschule, where CEO Boris Polenske outlined the implications of the recently announced amendments to the learner driver training in Germany. To remind you, last week, Germany’s Federal Ministry of Transport (BMDV) held an information event, where it provided comprehensive insights into the amendment of the learner driver training. The main highlights were the re-introduction of online theory as well as the use of driving simulators for up to 10 lessons. The changes are expected to come into effect in Q1’26e and are seen to significantly change and improve driving school training going forward. In detail:
Online Theory. Starting 2026, driving schools will be allowed to re-introduce online lectures, comprising up to 6 of the total 14 lectures. While this should save the time resources of driving instructors and hence increase efficiency, it will also have positive impacts on students. In fact, 123f plans to introduce two oneday seminars, comprising 8 lectures in presence in central locations. Afterwards, the theoretical training moves on to online courses, which will take place daily except for Sundays, offering students increased flexibility. Moreover, as students will have to attend only 2 days in presence, we expect an increased willingness to travel also longer distances of up to 30 minutes, thus increasing 123’s catchment area. In our view, this should enable 123f to significantly increase local market share.
Driving simulators. The BMDV also announced that driving simulators will be a part of the education going forward, as learner drivers will be allowed to complete their manual gearbox training on the simulator. This has several positive implications for 123f. (1) From 2026, 123f will no longer need switchgear vehicles, which alone should result in an annual EBIT effect of € 0.4m. (2) It compensates for the shortage of driving instructors. (3) As 30% of the practical training gets shifted to the simulator, driving instructors are able to drive more lessons per student and week. (4) Given the comparably low costs of operating a simulator, 123f will be able to achieve similar contribution margins while offering its product at a lower price than the competition, which should increase the market share of the company further, as smaller, local peers will not be able to equip their branches with simulators due to cost and space issues.
Overall, the information provided by the BMDV fully underpins our expectations and should further boost 123f’s top-line growth as well as margin expansion going forward. In light of the tailwinds, 123f remains a BUY with an unchanged PT of € 7.20 based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31083.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2012985 22.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: UBM Development AG: Buy
Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG
17.10.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to UBM Development AG
Company Name:
UBM Development AG
ISIN:
AT0000815402
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
17.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 27.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Philipp Sennewald
Good exchange result for new green bond
Topic: UBM recently announced the planned issue of a further green bond with a volume of up to € 100m (possible increase to € 150m) with a five-year term and an annual coupon of 7%. Until 15 October, the company provided an exchange offer to the holders of the UBM Bond 2019-2025 (2.175% coupon / € 120m) and the UBM Bond 2021-2026 (3.125% coupon / € 150m). In detail:
Yesterday, UBM announced the results of the exchange offer for the new green bond, as a nominal amount of € 73.6m, representing c. 25% of the holders of both the ’19-'25 and ’21-’26 bonds, was exchanged. In our view, this clearly underpins investors’ trust in the company’s prospects going forward. The re-offer price was set at 100% of the nominal amount.
In addition to the exchange offer, new investors will be able to subscribe to the new green bond in the period from 16 October to 22 October in the way of a private placement. While we expect the company to reach the targeted € 100m, we do not yet include this in our estimates and wait for the end of the offer period. The planned value date is 29 October.
Overall, the issuance will further strengthen UBM’s solid financial position with an equity ratio of > 30%, an LTV of 46% and liquid funds of € 180m as of H1. Moreover, UBM has no relevant maturities until the ’19-'25 bond (c. € 90m remaining nominal) expires in November ’25e.
Management intends to use the net issue proceeds for refinancing as well as the financing of new or existing suitable green projects, which are in accordance with the company’s Green Finance Framework. Mind you, that UBM is one of the leading developers of timber-hybrid construction in Europe with currently more than 300k sqm in the pipeline (total pipeline: € 1.9bn pro rate over 4 years), including the tallest timber-hybrid tower in the world, the Timber Marina Tower. Given the cost advantages in connection with the modular and serial construction as well as the significantly reduced carbon emissions, we expect UBM’s projects to meet brisk demand once the market fully reopens, as investors are under pressure to comply with the EU taxonomy.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 27 PT based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31071.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2010095 17.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: Flughafen Wien AG: Hold
Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
16.10.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name:
Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN:
AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Hold
from:
16.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 61.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Henry Wendisch
September traffic results round up a strong Q3; chg. est & PT
Topic: Yesterday, FWAG reported traffic results for September 2024, which finished off the company's third and seasonaly most important quarter. In detail:
For the September month, group passenger numbers rose by 7% yoy to 4.06m (eNuW: 4.03m) , driven by a solid development at the group's main airport (Vienna: +5.4% yoy to 3.08m) but also by strong growth at Malta (0.90m, +10% yoy) and Kosice (0.08m, + 22% yoy).
This led to a Q3 passenger volume of 12.9m, which is not only 8% above the old record of Q3'19, but also up 8% yoy and 16% qoq. Seasonally, Q3 is the most busy quarter as it comprises the main travel season during the summer holidays. Therefore, we regard the strong passenger growth, especially in comparison to last year's strong Q3, as outstanding and it highlights the current balance of high demand meeting the capacity increases of the airlines during the summer season.
For the first nine months, group passenger numbers stand a solid 9% above 9M'23, showing that FWAG could benefit from much better passengers development than previously anticipated at the start of '24.
FWAG is due to report Q3'24e results on 14th November '24, but we already expect a new top line record. Thanks to the statutory increase of airport charges at Vienna (c. 40% of group sales) by 9.7% per 1st January '24 coupled with Q3' passenger growth of 8%, group sales look set to grow 12% yoy to € 306m in Q3'24e (eNuW).
Next to passenger numbers, which is the main earnings driver, FWAG has presented some strong cargo figures. Here, cargo volume in Vienna is up 26% yoy (+24% yoy in Q3; +20% yoy per 9M), driven by a shift from shipping to air cargo due the current situation in the Red Sea. While cargo is not a major revenue driven (c. 5% of sales), it nevertheless shows a positive contribution for FWAG.
Furthermore, we precised our FY'24e and '25e passengers estimates and also now include the statutory price increase of airport charges by 4.5% for FY'25e (prev. eNuW: 4%), effective as of 1st January '25, in our model. Consequently, our DCF-based PT increases to € 61.00 (old: € 59.00), however, the shares remain a HOLD with only 13% upside.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31057.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2009159 16.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: Flughafen Wien AG: Hold
Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
15.10.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name:
Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN:
AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Hold
Target price:
EUR 59.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Henry Wendisch
Airlines increase winter capacities
Topic: Last week, FWAG presented its winter flight plan, which shows an increase of destinations and frequencies compared to last winter and which serves a indicator of supply at Vienna Airport. In detail:
Vienna airport's most important carrier, Austrian Airlines (AUA; c. 50% market share), has left its number of destinations served unchanged at 86, however, has decided to increase the frequencies at important long-haul destinations such as Bangkok, New York, Maledives and Montreal.
The second largest airline at Vienna, low-cost carrier Ryanair (c. 21% market share), increases its fleet stationend at Vienna from 18 to 19, but also adds one more destination (now 56) served from Vienna. In addition, Ryanair also increases its frequency on more than 20 destinations.
In addition to increases in destinations and frequencies from existing airlines, SkyExpress (Greek Airline) will start to serve Vienna-Athens 4x a week, whereas AirArabia (UAE's largest lowcost carrier) has resumed the connection Vienna-Sharja (1h drive from Dubai) for 4x a week.
Overall, with more airlines, more destinations and an increase of frequencies, we expect a mid-single-digit increase in supply compared to the last winter period, which lasts from 29th October 31st March.
We expect demand to follow as (1) Austrian real wages should rise 4.2% yoy this year (1.25% in FY'25e; Source: WIFO) and (2) the desire for leisure travel is resilient, visibile in a constant share of wallet. In fact, a recent study from Travel Data + Analytics shows a 21% yoy increase in German leisure travel sales for the upcoming winter season (based on Aug '24 booking data). While this cannot be directly extrapolated to Ausstria, we nevertheless regard this as a solid demand proxy.
One a sidenote, Ryanair's and Eurowing's recent decision to decrease capacities at German airports for summer '25 due to rising air ticket levies certainly appear alarming in general, but should not be extrapolated to Vienna airport, where both, the Lufthansa group as well as Ryanair, seem very happy with the airport operator, in our view, and where air ticket levies have not been increased since 2020.
In sum, we expect a mid-single-digit passenger growth (eNuW: 4.1% yoy) during the upcoming the winter season. Nevertheless, we also regard FWAG to be priced fairly and reiterate our HOLD recommendation with an unchanged PT of € 59.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31049.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2008233 15.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: ZEAL Network SE: Kaufen
Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
15.10.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name:
ZEAL Network SE
ISIN:
DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Kaufen
from:
15.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 54.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Henry Wendisch
Google bans ads from illegal lottery providers
Last month, Google update its advertisement policies regarding gambling and games, which only allows whitelisted operators to advertise on Google, helping the regulator to battle the illegal lottery market. While impacts for ZEAL are hard to quantify, we nevertheless regard it as positive news.
Effective 25th September 2024, Google only allows companies whitelisted by the GGL (Gemeinsame Glückspielbehörde der Länder, German Gambling authority) to run ads for their offerings. Consequently, companies without a GGL license had their advertisement certification revoked on that day. This also includes gambling aggregation services (such as landing pages), thus also preventing a bypass of the ban.
This not only follows Meta's gambling advertisement policy, which is in place since 2014 and also requires companies to be whitelisted by the GGL, but also closes a gap for illegal competition in ZEAL's most important advertisement channels.
The ad-bans should help the GGL to fight the illegal lottery market in Germany. While existing measures such as IP- and payment blocking against illegal offerings in Germany not only take time, but also need a court decision, are thus not as effective as intended. Therefore, the decision by Google to stop the advertisement does not stop illegal operations, but could prevent further growth of the black market.
The latter is key for the legal market, as uninformed consumers, especially those that switch from offline lottery to online, cannot differentiate at first sight whether a provider is legal or not. This implies, that now the legal online lottery providers (ZEAL and the federal state's lottery operators landing page lotto.de) are competing against each other at online marketing channels, such as Google. A potential positive impact for ZEAL and/or the legal lottery market is hard to quantify as neither the black market nor their marketing budgets are known, however the expected absence of illegal competition on Google could lead to falling customer acquisitions costs, as the pay-per-click advertising auction for certain buzzwords should have less bidders, in our view.
This bodes especially well for ZEAL, which recorded new records in marketing efficiency earlier this year. Against this backdrop, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchanged PT of € 54.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31051.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.Archive at www.eqs-news.com
2008237 15.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: Multitude SE: Buy
Original-Research: Multitude SE - from NuWays AG
14.10.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to Multitude SE
Company Name:
Multitude SE
ISIN:
MT0002810100
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
14.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 12.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Frederik Jarchow
Sensible strategic acquisition of stake in Lea Bank ASA
Topic: Multitude announced to have acquired a 9.9% stake in Lea Bank ASA with an option to acquire further 8.7%, once having received the approval from the regulatory authorities in Norway and Sweden. Here are our key takeaways:
Complementary risk profile as good strategic fit. Lea Bank is active in the consumer lending space with a strong regional footprint across Nordic countries and Spain. As Lea Bank is offering prime loans to consumers, the risk profile is significantly lower compared to Multitude´s consumer lending segment “ferratum” and is hence diversifying the business. Thanks to a business model that is similar (consumer lending) but different (risk profiles), we see certain synergy potentials, especially in the field of (1) referrals/product cooperations, (2) joint development projects and (3) cross-selling. Still, for now the acquisition is only a financial investment that is not being consolidated.
Attractive financial profile. With a loan book of c. € 587m (as of H1´24 mainly financed with customer deposits at moderate interest rates), Lea Bank should generate some € 48m in net interest income and € 55m in total income in FY24e (assuming similar sequential growth as in H1), while provision for loan losses should amount to only c. € 30m, due to the relatively low risk profile, with low default rates. The lean cost structure, should allow Lea Bank to achieve an EBT of € 7-8m that could result in a nice dividend. In light of the profitable, growing business model with a lower risk profile, the paid valuation of c. 13x PE´24e is appropriate in our view.
Apart from that, Multitude is seen to be fully on track to come close to its EBIT guidance of € 67.5m (vs eNuW: € 61.4m), thanks to moderate growth especially in the SME and Wholesale banking segment, further improved risk management visible in declining impairments and ongoing tight cost control resulting in stable OPEX.
As the stock still is undebatable cheap for a growing, highly profitable, resilient and dividend paying company, trading at only 4x PE´25, we reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 12 PT, based on our residual income model. With that, Multitude remains one of our NuWays Alpha picks.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31041.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.Archive at www.eqs-news.com
2007335 14.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: DEMIRE AG: Buy
Original-Research: DEMIRE AG - from NuWays AG
11.10.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to DEMIRE AG
Company Name:
DEMIRE AG
ISIN:
DE000A0XFSF0
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
11.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 1.50
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Philipp Sennewald
A stock to BUY after successful refinancing
Topic: DEMIRE released its FY ’23 as well as Q1 and Q2 ’24 reports. While the FY ’23 figures were exactly in line with the prelims published in April (click here for detail), the figures for Q1 and Q2 reflect the reduced portfolio following the disposals of several properties. The clear highlight however is, that DEMIRE recently reached approval for the prolongation of its corporate bond, which would have expired in 10/24. Against this backdrop, the current valuation gap no longer appears justified, which is why we upgrade the stock to BUY. In detail:
H1 ’24 rental income declined 13.1% yoy to € 35.5m (eNuW: € 32.9m). The decline was driven by several property disposals, mainly in Ulm and Leipzig (LogPark, closed in Q1), as well as a higher vacancy rate of 15.5% (vs 9.6% at H1 ’23), which was only partly offset by index related rent increases. In fact, the annualized contractual rents decreased to € 66.9m, down from € 85.1m at FY ’22. Profit from rental activities in H1 amounted to € 23.5m, also driven by the disposals but as well negatively affected by higher management expenses and impairments on receivables.
Based on this, FFO in H1 also came in softer at € 15.5m (eNuW: € 14.9m), down 19.7% yoy. Diluted FFO per share amounted to € 0.15, which compares to € 0.18 in the same period of the previous year.
Against this backdrop, management is guiding for rental income of € 64-66m as well as a significantly lower FFO compared to FY ’23 (€ 36.7m). The guidance is based on the current annualized contractual rent as well as further opportunistic disposals of smaller non-strategic and mature assets.Limes insolvency. In July, DEMIRE announced that it has not reached an agreemend with DZ HYP regarding the € 82m refinancing of the so called Limes portfolio, which resulted in an insolvency application for the four property companies affected. According to our estimates, the Limes porfolio has a remaining BV of € 140 and a 6% rental yield (eNuW: € 8.4m rental income). The conclusion of the insolvency process is planned for the coming weeks. Until then, we conservatively estimate a total loss for the company, resulting in a valuation loss of € 58m, thus leaving some upside to our estimates.
Most importantly however, DEMIRE finally reached formal approval for the prolongation of the € 499m corporate bond until FY ‘27e.The process is to be completed and the structure to be implemented in the coming weeks. In addition to the initial agreement with a smaller group of bondholders (click here for update), there have been only
minor changes to the final agreement:
PIK interest, starting on 1st January 2027, was increased from 1% to 3%
Further 2% penalty to be paid at maturity if bond volume has not been reduced by another € 50m until YE ‘26e
Moreover, it was decided to implement a double LuxCo structure as a single point of enforcement, to provide
greater protection and ease of execution for the bondholders.
In order to perform the communicated € 49.9m redemption at par, the tender offer (max. price of 76.25%, for which DEMIRE received backstop agreements totaling € 194m), as well as the € 50m reductions in FY ‘25e and FY ‘26e, the company will not only receive a shareholder loan from Apollo for up to € 100m, but also sell further assets going forward.
In fact, the company presented a disposal program with their Market Update Presentation in June, including
assets worth € 297m. Yet, this did also include the LogPark, which was sold at BV for about € 103m in Q1. Hence, the company’s remaining disposal pipeline should amount to c. € 194m and is planned to be executed by FY ‘26e. Assuming an LTV of 20% and a 10% average discount to BV, this will result in net proceeds of € 140m. Along with the current cash pile of € 167m, the Apollo loan as well as the cash flows from operations, this should enable the company to reduce the outstanding amount of the bond to c. € 100m by FY ‘26e (eNuW).
While this will certainly burden the company’s operating performance over the coming 3 years (eNuW: rental income -33% until FY ‘26e), the focus should be on the positive news, as the going concern is no longer at risk, in our view. More so, it gives the company a stable basis to focus on its operating success and the strategic alignment of the portfolio.
This alo gives us the opportunity to reevaluate the case. Even with declining rental income and FFO, the company's NAV is seen to remain stable, or even slightly increase going forward given the operating profitability of DEMIRE. Looking at the current NAV discount of 65%, we observe a significant valuation gap compared to the peer group (LEG, VNA, AT1, GCP, TEG, HABA), which stands at a discount of only 34%.
Amid the absence of the refinancing risk, we hence upgrade the stock to BUY with a new PT of € 1.50 (old: € 1.20) based on a 40% discount to our NAV FY ‘24e.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31035.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2006469 11.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: Einhell Germany AG: Buy
Original-Research: Einhell Germany AG - from NuWays AG
11.10.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to Einhell Germany AG
Company Name:
Einhell Germany AG
ISIN:
DE000A40ESU3
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
11.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 86.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Konstantin Völk
Strong preliminary Q3 // FY guidance raised; chg. est. & PT
Topic: Yesterday evening, Einhell released strong preliminary Q3 sales numbers above our expectations. Further, the company increased its sales and EBT guidance for FY24.
Q3 sales increased 15% yoy to € 264m (eNuW: € 250m), driven by the ongoing strong demand for the company’s Power X-Change products (c. 50% PXC share).
While Q3 EBIT has not been released, we expect it to come in at € 23.9m (Q3’23: € 20.2m; +19% yoy), which would lead to a solid 9.1% margin (+0.3ppts yoy). The expansion of Power X-Change should be a major contributor due to its high gross margins (50% PXC share vs. 45% for 9M’23). Personnel expenses are seen be around last year’s level (eNuW € 34.0m vs. € 33.6m in Q3’23) as effects from wage inflation and a lower headcount due to the sale of Einhell Colombia and personnel changes at the subsidiary in Thailand should offset. However, we expect other operating expenses to increase yoy to € 45m or 17.1% of sales (vs. € 37.9m, 16.5% in Q3’23) due to:
(1) Higher outgoing freight rates, as the Houthi militia started attacking freight liners in the Red Sea, container ships have been taking alternative routes around Africa, which increased transit times by about 14 days.
(2) Higher marketing expenses due to the intense cooperations with the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team and FC Bayern Munich. Marketing and advertising expenses increased already successively in the last years and accounted for 7.4% of sales in H1’24 (vs. 5.7% in H1’23).
FY guidance raised: As a result of the positive business development, management now expects € 1,070m in sales (previously: € 1,030m) and an EBT margin of 8.0-8.5% for FY24e (previously: around 8.0%). Thanks to the strong top-line growth in the first 9M and the successful expansion of Power XChange, the FY guidance looks plausible to us (eNuW sales € 1,080m; EBT 8.2%). Einhell remains a clear BUY in our view, as the stock is (1) trading at only 8x EV/EBIT, (2) delivers stable ROIC’s (eNuW FY24e 13%) above its cost of capital and has (3) substantial growth potential if the company can successively enter the US market.
We reiterate our BUY rating with a new PT of € 86 (old: € 84) based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31037.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2006475 11.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: Cantourage Group SE: Buy
Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE - from NuWays AG
10.10.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to Cantourage Group SE
Company Name:
Cantourage Group SE
ISIN:
DE000A3DSV01
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
10.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 10.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Christian Sandherr
9M prelims: Growth further accelerating, FY guidance specified
Topic: Cantourage released preliminary Q3 figures, which were marked by >100% yoy sales growth and further sequential improvements thanks to the partial legalization that took place in April. With this, the company is well on track to reach EBITDA profitability this year. In detail:
Q3 sales jumped by 124% yoy to € 13.2m (9M sales +75% yoy to € 30.1m). The significant growth was primarily fuelled by the partial legalization of medical cannabis in Germany, which took effect at the end of April. This change has made obtaining a prescription for medical cannabis as straightforward as getting one for ibuprofen 600. On top, Cantourage is also experiencing a sharp increase in demand at its treatment facility in UK.
Further, Cantourage is well on track to turn profitable despite significant growth investments. In Q3, EBITDA is seen to come in at around € 1m (mid-point of guidance). For the FY, management expects to reach EBITDA break-even (eNuW: € 1.8m).
FY24 guidance specified towards the upper end. The company’s initial FY24 sales guidance stood at € 37-43m (eNuW: € 43m). With € 30m sales after the first nine months and the past two months alone having contributed some € 10m, management specified the guidance towards the upper end, now targeting at least € 40m sales. Taking into account sequentially increasing sales volumes and the strong operational performance during recent months, we regard our estimate as well in reach. With the current runrate, our sales estimate of € 54m for FY25e (26% yoy growth) already look achievable.
Mid-term to be marked by further strong growth. Assuming a somewhat similar development of the German medical cannabis market as in US states, the market offers a € 1.2-1.4bn opportunity. Over the past two years, Cantourage has laid the foundation to achieve €100 million in sales. With a global network of over 60 growers, Cantourage offers a diverse range of cannabis flowers, minimizing cluster risks. Through its recent partnership with Portocanna, the company can now process approximately 14 tons of flowers annually. Additionally, Cantourage's own telemedicine platform, telecan°, connects the company directly with patients, offering easy access to cannabis therapy consultations and prescriptions.
We confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 10 PT based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31025.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2005619 10.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: Nabaltec: Buy
Original-Research: Nabaltec - from NuWays AG
10.10.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Nabaltec
Company Name:
Nabaltec
ISIN:
DE000A0KPPR7
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
10.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 25
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Christian Sandherr
Conference feedback: Too cheap to ignore
During last week's European MidCap conference in Paris, the CEO of Nabaltec provided insights into key topics. Here are our takeaways:
Continued strong demand for Nabaltec’s core product. Mind you, ATH is an environmental friendly flame retardant, which is primarily used in cables and wires. As during recent quarters, demand from investments into data centres and renewable energy sources as well as an improving US construction industry are seen to sustainably drive sales growth.
Gap filler with growing importance, investments in capacities. Initially introduced in 2021, sales from the white powder, that significantly improves thermal management capabilities of adhesives used in EV batteries, is seen to reach € 6.5m in FY24e. In light of current production capacities that allow ~ € 10m sales and a clear commitment from customers, Nabaltec is increasing 4x its production capacities. Importantly, the new production line is fully automated and frees up ~ 20kt ATH production capacities. Total investment stand at around € 25m, spend until the end of FY25e.
Boehmite remains slow following a stronger H1 due to a positive one-off. During H1, boehmite sales stood at roughly € 8m, positively impacted by a € 1.8m (eNuW) order from a Chinese customer. Unlike last year, the second half of this year should not be marked by a notably up tick in demand (FY24: -18% to € 14.5m). Mind you, >80% of the separator production is located in China. While management expects strongly growing demand for ceramic coatings in e-mobility, we model only a slight growth for next year.
Current capex program to be paid for by op. cash flow. This and next year, Nabaltec plans to spend a cumulative € 50-55m on capex to lay the foundation for further growth of ATH, its gap filler and boehmite. Importantly, the company’s operating cash flow during those two years should be largely sufficient to cover the whole investment program. Mind you, the op. CF at the end of H1 FY24 stood at € 24m, thanks to the good operating performance but also a normalization of working capital.
Attractive growth potential. Taking into account the available capacities across its three production site following the current investment initiative, Nabaltec should be able (once fully utilized) to generate some € 300m sales, € 55m EBITDA and € 40m FCF (eNuW).
Q3 to come in as another good quarter. Following a strong H1 with € 108m sales (+2.2% yoy) and a 9.9% EBIT margin (+1.9pp yoy), the third quarter is seen to paint a similar picture with € 50.5m sales and a 9.1% EBIT margin (eNuW) despite the seasonally weak August and the absence of a € 1.7m positive boehmite one-off from Q2. With this, the 9M sales growth figure should be inline with the FY guidance of 2-4% yoy sales growth and ahead of the targeted 7-9% EBIT margin with 9.8%, eNuW.
Expiring gas/raw material contracts no reason for concern. Nabaltec usually enters into multi-year gas/raw material supply contracts, which are due to be renegotiated (for several years) at the end of this year. While the currently higher gas price levels should have a notable P&L impact (eNuW, € 2-2.5m p.a.), raw materials (mainly alumina) should have an opposing effect, mostly offsetting each other.
Shares remains attractively valued. At € 15 per share, Nabaltec trades roughly 11% below its book value of € 16.7, while offering 11.7% adj. FCFY, a strong balance sheet and significant mid- to long-term potential. We confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 25 PT.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31027.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2005621 10.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: beaconsmind AG: Buy
Original-Research: beaconsmind AG - from NuWays AG
09.10.2024 / 09:05 CET/CEST
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to beaconsmind AG
Company Name:
beaconsmind AG
ISIN:
CH0451123589
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
09.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 16.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Philipp Sennewald
Strong growth and profitability in H1 driven by acquisitions; chg.
Topic: beaconsmind released its H1 '24 management report, showing substantial top-line growth driven by the numerous acquisitions that were performed in 2022 and 2023. Here are the key takeaways.
H1 ’24 sales increased by 122% yoy to CHF 5.9m (eNuW: CHF 6.2m; eNuW: 70% recurring), which was mainly driven by the acquisitions of FREDERIX, Socialwave, Netopsie, T2 and Kadsoft. In fact, revenues from T2 and Kadsoft were consolidated for the first time, as the deal has been closed at YE '23. In 2023, T2 and Kadsoft recorded combined revenues of € 3.5m.
H1 adj. EBITDA came in at CHF 1.1m (eNuW: CHF 1.0m) , showing the positive impacts of the acquisitions. The adjustments of CHF 0.6m were mainly attributed to legal and personnel expenses in relation to the acquisitions of FREDERIX, Socialwave, Netopsie, T2 and Kadsoft.
Moreover, management reiterated the run rate for 2024, targeting sales of CHF 12.9m as well as an adj. EBITDA of CHF 2.5m. This should be achievable for beaconsmind given the strong H1 performance as well as several new contracts that were closed during the first half of the year.
Speaking of which, beaconsmind continues to gain new customers. For example, the company will provide the Semperoper in Dresden with its projector technology (eNuW: CHF 0.2m sales), while retailer Müller implemented beaconsminds CloudWifi solutions in more than 770 supermarkets in the DACH region and Spain. Moreover, beaconsmind gained ECE group, a leading shopping center operator, as a customer (eNuW: CHF 0.5m recurring sales). Just recently, the company also announced to have intensified its collaboration with a leading European retailer, who will apply the beaconsmind Auto App Login at c. 940 locations in Europe.
Regional expansion. On top of this, beaconsmind in May announced its expansion into the Spanish market with the establishment of an own entity. With this, the company responds to the high penetration rate of digital marketing solutions in Spain, especially in hospitality and gastronomy. Management said to target annual revenues of CHF 600k and expected significant growth potential going forward.
New tech partnership. In Q2, beaconsmind announced to have entered into a partnership with at-visions (digital solutions for hospitality) and lokalee (AI based concierge solutions). The partnership aims to provide a fully integrated solution for retail and hospitality customers in the MENA region, focusing on a comprehensive technology value chain in order to enhance guest experience while providing an integrated hard- and software solution. Given beaconsmind’s existent expertise in the hospitality segment, we expect significant up-selling potential from this initiative.
Besides organic growth, we expect beaconsmind to continue its buy and build strategy with further acquisitions to come. While the company has not been active on the M&A market in 2024 thus far, we expect at least one further acquisition until H1 ‘25e.
The stock remains a BUY with a new PT of € 16 (old: € 15) based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31011.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2004651 09.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: Nynomic AG: Buy
Original-Research: Nynomic AG - from NuWays AG
09.10.2024 / 09:02 CET/CEST
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to Nynomic AG
Company Name:
Nynomic AG
ISIN:
DE000A0MSN11
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
09.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 44.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Christian Sandherr
H2 marked by postponements, bright mid-term prospects; chg
Topic: Nynomic cut its FY24 guidance due to delayed order intakes and project postponements but should return to strong growth from FY25 onwards as reflected by the confirmed mid-term guidance.
Recent years underpin the importance of the second half of years for Nynomic (FY23: 60% of sales, 70% of EBIT). Due to revenue shifts into FY25 as a result of delayed order intakes and project postponements from customers, management cut its FY24 guidance to € 100-110m sales (old: slight yoy increase vs € 118m; eCons: € 120m) and a 7-9% EBIT margin (old: yoy margin increase vs 13.1%; eCons: 13.7%).
For the first time in several years, all three segments are experiencing headwinds. For instance, within Green Tech, end customers are reluctant to purchasing high-end vehicles (e.g. combine harvesters) and systems. Within Clean Tech, customers in traditional silicon-based sectors are experiencing delays in new projects, as well as upgrades to existing systems, due to changes in the AI and memory markets.
Importantly, the absence of order cancellations, strong underlying demand, and the continued development of customer projects provide reassurance that these issues are temporary. In fact, we expect € 11m of orders, intially planned for H2 this year to be recognized in H1 2025.
Looking beyond FY24, Nynomic should return to strong growth. Until FY26e, we expect sales to increase to € 141m with an EBIT margin of above 15%, carried by (1) the revenue recognition of delayed orders to the tune of € 11m (eNuW), (2) recent product launches ramping up/gaining traction (e.g. TactiScan, LabScanner Plus and FETTE's tablet press), (3) generally revitalizing end markets such as semiconductors and medical and pharmaceutical applications and (4) new product launches.
Unchanged mid-term guidance. Management continues to regard the mid-term-guidance (3-5 year time horizon), which was issed last year as intact, expecting sales to reach € 200m with a 16-19% EBIT margin, driven by a combination of strong organic growth and add-on acquisitions.
Conclusion: While short-term headwinds necessitate a modest downgrade to the 2024 forecast, the core fundamentals and growth trajectory for Nynomic remains compelling. Investors should focus on the expected rebound in 2025, carried by the recognition of delayed orders and the strong pipeline of new projects. We confirm our BUY rating with a new € 44 PT (old: € 50) based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31013.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2004653 09.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: Flughafen Wien AG: Hold
Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
09.10.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name:
Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN:
AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Hold
from:
09.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 59.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Henry Wendisch
Conference Feedback: Building up cash until decision day
Last week, we hosted FWAG European MidCap Conference in Paris with some insightful meetings. As neither an airport nor the city of Vienna needs much explanation, discussions quickly turned towards current and future CAPEX projects, the shareholder structure and FWAG's capital allocation. Here are our key takeaways:
Decision for 3rd runway until 2026e: Next to the current CAPEX project (Terminal 3 South Expansion, eNuW: € 425m total CAPEX until FY'27e), the decision to plan a third runway by 2033 is still pending. However, a final decision is to be made by FWAG until FY'26e and should resolve the current uncertainty. While the CAPEX volume for the third runway is to early to tell and undisclosed, it should nevertheless should go into the billions (eNuW: € 1.5-3bn). Until then, FWAG should resume its current dividend policy and stores its excess cash in time deposits.
Positive decision: In the event of a positive decision, we expect the building process to start shortly after which will kick off a large CAPEX cycle with muted FCFs. Although FWAG operates debt free with a € 349m cash pile (per H1'24 and eNuW: € 600-750m by Y/E'27e), additional financing to stem the project would become necessary, in our view. Here, either a capital increase via the stock exchange or a debt intake to of up to 2-3x EBITDA (current peer group's average) or a combination are thinkable.
Negative decision: in this case, the third runway would not be built for at least one or two generations, meaning that FWAG could improve its capital structure and put the excess cash to good use in the form of special dividends, share buybacks and M&A.
In both ways, the final decision should serve as a pivotal moment, defining the future of the airport operator, in our view. Towards which decision management will eventually go for remains unforeseeable for us.
In another topic, the discussions turned towards the current shareholder structure, with only 6% of free float and IFM holding 44%. Here, decisions of IFM to potentially increase, reduce or maintain its current shareholding are all viable options, but also unforeseeable from the outside.
For the time being, FWAG remains a HOLD with an unchanged PTof € 59.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31015.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
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2004655 09.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: 029 Group SE: Hold
Original-Research: 029 Group SE - from NuWays AG
08.10.2024 / 09:06 CET/CEST
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to 029 Group SE
Company Name:
029 Group SE
ISIN:
DE000A2LQ2D0
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Hold
from:
08.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 14.00
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Christian Sandherr
H1 figures: Emerald Stay divestment with positive P&L impact
Topic: 029 published H1 2024 figures which were marked by the positive contributions from the successful divestment of Emerald Stay, but also the further positive developments of the group’s key holding, Limestone Capital.
In H1, the group’s net income stood at € 0.7m, comparing to previous year’s € 0.4m loss. Besides lower other operating expenses (from € 0.32m to € 0.18m), this was carried by a € 0.94m other operating income related to the divestment of Emerald Stay in February. As a reminder, 029 sold it's 5.2% stake in Emerald Stay. The transaction is expected to generate roughly € 1.6m gross proceeds, reflecting a realized multiple on the FY23 book value of around 2.3x and 2.7x on the invested capital.
Limestone Capital, the group's key holding (84.2% of NAV, eNuW), continues to grow its portfolio. In May, the company opened Aethos Sardina, a 57-room 5 star hotel. With this, seven hotels are operational with the 8th (Madrid) likely to become operational during Q3 2025.
What’s more, Limestone spearheaded a € 40m Series A financing round for MYNE Homes, Europe's leading managed co-ownership provider for premium vacation homes in Germany, Austria, Italy, Spain, France, Sweden and Croatia. With its technology-driven platform, MYNE allows individuals to pool resources and invest in premium vacation homes, making ownership much easier and more affordable.
Changes in management board. On July 1st, 2024, Leon Sander succeeded Lorin Van Nuland, who has decided to step down as CEO in consultation with the Administrative Board, as new Managing Director. Leon Sander has actively supported 029 Group SE since its foundation and has already been a member of the Administrative Board.
Current portfolio overview. Besides Limestone, the group’s portfolio also comprises TRIP Drinks (10.1% of NAV, eNuW), UK’s leading CBD oils and drinks brand, which is progressing with its geographic expansion, hotelbird (3.9% of NAV, eNuW), Brother’s Bond (1.5% of NAV, eNuW) and fjör (0.3% of NAV, eNuW), which are all showing operational developments in line with expectations.
029 Group remains a HOLD with an unchanged € 14 PT based on a sum-of- he-parts valuation with a 5% holding discount.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30997.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.Archive at www.eqs-news.com
2003687 08.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: MLP SE: Buy
Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
08.10.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Company Name:
MLP SE
ISIN:
DE0006569908
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
08.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 12.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Henry Wendisch
Guidance hike thanks to FERI's fund solutions; chg. est & PT
Last week, MLP increased its FY'24 EBIT guidance thanks to a favourable development of FERI's institutional fund solutions, leading to highly profitable performance fees in Q3. In detail:
MLP disclosed € 17m of performance fees collected in the third quarter, which compares extremely well to last year's Q3 (€ 0.1m) as well as to Q1'24 (€ 3.8m) and Q2 (€ 5.4m) and which is the second largest quarterly collection over the last 4 years (largest: € 27m in Q4'21).
While the exact source of performance fees is undisclosed, we expect it to have mostly stemmed from FERI's non-public institutional fund solutions (Alternative and 'other' Assets, c. 93% of FERI's AuM, see p.2 for details) as the observable public funds (Optoflex and Equity Flex fund families) have not performed to the extent to explain the large amount of € 17m. As it is impossbile to observe or anticipate the fund performance of the non-public funds from the outside, the strong collection of performance fees hit us with a positive surprise.
Consequently, MLP raised its FY'24e EBIT guidance by € 10m from € 75-85m to € 85-95m, now in line with our old estimate of € 90m. Assuming a 60-75% incremental EBIT margin from performance fees (eNuW), this implies € 10-13m of incremental Q3 EBIT and fully explains the € 10m guidance increase.
As we have modeled our € 90m EBIT target under the assumption of only € 1m performance fees in Q3 (we have assumed no performance fees from non-public funds due to their unpredictability) we add an incremental € 10m EBIT to our previous Q3 EBIT estimate, but also finetune our Q4 estimate by adding € 5m to our personnel expense estimate. As a result, our new FY'24e EBIT estimate arrives at the top-end of the new guidance at € 95m (old: € 90m), which implies a strong EBIT expansion by 34% yoy.
In sum, the guidance hike completely underpins our positive view on the stock. Additional to performance fees, the recovery of the EBITnegative real estate business as well as the ongoing strong net interest income from banking, should lead to improving profitability into this and next year. This directly contradicts MLP's valuation, which should rerate once the hike in profitability becomes ever more visible. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation, confirm MLP's position in our NuWays' AlphaList and increase our PT to € 12.00 (old: € 11.50), based on FCFY'24e and SOTP.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30999.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.Archive at www.eqs-news.com
2003689 08.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: ZEAL Network SE: Buy
Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
08.10.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name:
ZEAL Network SE
ISIN:
DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Buy
from:
08.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 54.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Henry Wendisch
Conference Feedback: growth in- and outside the state lottery
Last week, we hosted ZEAL at the European MidCap Conference in Paris where we sat down with the company for some insightful meetings. Here are the key takeaways:
Strong market share gains during peak jackpots: during the strong jackpot phases in Q1, ZEAL's brokerage business has noted a strong jump in market share. While this is not disclosed and exact data will be available in Jan'25, our preliminary calculations indicate ZEAL's market share at around 43-44% (vs. 41.4% in FY'23).
Market trend tailwinds: Within the lottery brokerage business, growth is stemming from (1) a rising online penetration, which still stands at a mere 24% and (2) an increase in market share. In both cases, it is crucial for ZEAL to acquire those customers that are switching from offline to online instead of trying to acquire customers that are already onboarded in the online channel of the state lottery (lotto.de). Last year's decision to focus more in brand marketing, additional to performance marketing, thus clearly pays off, visible in reduced CPLs and high user intake this year.
Additional growth beyond the state lottery: The most recent additions to ZEAL's offering (Games and Dream House Raffle) are not only serving ZEAL's cross-selling and lock-in of customers, but are also completely outside of the state-lottery (brokerage business), thus reducing ZEAL's dependency on a volatile jackpot environment. Despite being new and thus still small compared to the brokerage business, both show great potentials and come in with higher ARPUs and margins, improving the overall mix.
Strong operating leverage: While in FY'24e, the operating leverage effect should be subdued temporarily by an increase of personnel expenses (currently: 240 FTEs vs. an average of 172 in FY'23) for the successfull implementation of new products (i.e. Games, Dream House Raffle, etc.), the level show its full effect into FY'25e, where strong top-line growth meets a more constant cost base and thus rising EBITDA margins.
All in all, ZEAL is well on track to increase its user base while also increasing customer monetization at the same time, leading to an ever growing CLTV for ZEAL's customer base. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and ZEAL's position in our AlphaList with unchanged PT of € 54.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31001.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.Archive at www.eqs-news.com
2003695 08.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: q.beyond AG: BUY
Original-Research: q.beyond AG - from NuWays AG
04.10.2024 / 09:25 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to q.beyond AG
Company Name:
q.beyond AG
ISIN:
DE0005137004
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
BUY
from:
04.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 1.10
Target price on sight of:
12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Philipp Sennewald
Conference feedback: Efficiency measures bearing fruit
Topic: This week, we hosted the European MidCap Conference in Paris where we sat down with q.beyond CEO Rixen and CFO Wolters for some insightful meetings. Here are the key takeaways:
Margin expansion. Management reiterated that it is on track for continues margin expansion, confirming the targets for FY ‘24e (€ 8-10m) and FY ‘25e (7-8% margin). The company identified three layers to achieve this: (1) Focusing the business model on acquiring consulting and development orders, which consequently leads to orders for operations (Managed Services). According to management, a 5pp higher share of consulting & development revenues will lead to 2pp gross margin expansion. (2) Significantly increasing the near- and off-shoring ratio. Since 2020, q.beyond has lifted the ratio to 13% and is targeting 20% until FY ‘25e and 30% by FY ‘28e, stating that 5pp increase in the near- and off-shoring ratio allows for a 1pp gross margin lift. (3) Increasingly implementing AI, especially in Managed Services (50% of workforce), i.e. call center and service desk automation, going forward. In
our view, this could lead to significant cost savings in the mid-term. Based on this, the company’s targets seem absolutely achievable and are in line with our estimates.
M&A to fuel growth. Sitting on a comfortable net cash position of > € 30m, management reiterated that it is currently building up an M&A pipeline, with the intention for a first deal in the course of FY ‘25e. Here, the company will focus on targets with software-based industry knowledge, preferably in the public, healthcare or energy sector. Moreover, CEO Rixen stated, that another goal would be to enter new regional markets via M&A. Overall, we expect targets to be in the range of € 10-20m sales. Hence, we expect several acquisitions in the coming years. In addition to the strong cash positions, the company also still owns their own data center in Hamburg, which could probably be sold for € 40-50m (eNuW) in order to unlock additional funds.
Promising current trading. After the consulting business had a lackluster H1 performance (-11% yoy), management made a promising appearance regarding the performance in Q3, stating that the company achieved a higher utilization rate than in the previous quarters.
Valuation continues to look undemanding as shares are trading at only 6.1x EV/EBITDA
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30991.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.Archive at www.eqs-news.com
2002235 04.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: Einhell Germany AG: BUY
Original-Research: Einhell Germany AG - from NuWays AG
04.10.2024 / 09:20 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to Einhell Germany AG
Company Name:
Einhell Germany AG
ISIN:
DE0005654933
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
BUY
from:
04.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 84
Target price on sight of:
12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Konstantin Völk
Power X-Change paves the way for further market share gains
On Tuesday, Einhell attended the European Midcap Conference in Paris, hosted by NuWays in cooperation with CF&B. Here are our key takeaways:
Mid-term sales target: Einhell aims to reach € 2bn in sales between FY27-FY29, depending on the geopolitical situation (eNuW FY28e: € 1.2bn). In addition to expansions into new geographic markets, growth should also come from a steadily increasing market share in DACH (currently 39% for cordless garden products and 20% for tools), which is driven by Einhell’s Power X-Change products.
Furthermore, with € 2bn in sales, Einhell’s CEO Kroiss estimates generating a 10% EBIT margin due to economies of scale and an increasing share of the high margin Power X-Change products (51% of sales in H1’24). After reaching a 10% EBIT margin, Management does not intend to increase profitability further but instead focus on delivering the best possible experience for customers. The concept of scale economies shared (passing through the benefit of scale to the customer, which increases sales even further) is a reasonable strategy in our view and does not only help to strengthen Einhell’s brand perception but also builds a moat by reaching scale. In addition, we like Kroiss’ long-term view and customer focus, who not only contributed substantially to Einhell’s past success in his role as CEO since 2003 but is also Einhell’s second largest shareholder.
US expansion: To fuel future growth, Einhell intends to get a foot into the US DIY market (c. 56% of global DIY). As building a proper infrastructure for the US market can be both time-consuming and costly, the preferred way to enter the American market is via M&A. However, finding a suitable target for c. € 150m has turned out to be a difficult task.
Brand building partnerships: Since January 1st, Einhell has been the partner of the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team and supports the team with its Power X-Change devices as its “Official Tool Expert”. Further, since August 2021, Einhell has also been the “Official Home and Garden Expert” for FC Bayern Munich. Management intends not to add a third comparable partnership, emphasize however the importance of the partnership with Mercedes to strengthen its brand in the US. Formula 1 has recently gained popularity in the US and hosts already three races in 2025 (Miami, Austin, Las Vegas).
We continue to like the stock and reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 84, based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30989.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.Archive at www.eqs-news.com
2002029 04.10.2024 CET/CEST
NuWays AG: ZEAL Network SE: Kaufen
Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
01.10.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name:
ZEAL Network SE
ISIN:
DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research:
Update
Recommendation:
Kaufen
from:
01.10.2024
Target price:
EUR 54.00
Target price on sight of:
12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:
Henry Wendisch
Solid Q3 ahead despite a normalized lottery environment
Following two very strong lottery quarters, overall demand for ZEAL's most important products from lottery brokerage have normalized in Q3, as no peak jackpots have been reached. For ZEAL, we nevertheless expect solid Q3 results. In detail:
Lotto 6aus49 continues its negative streak: Q3 finished off as the fourth quarter in a row without a peak jackpot. Furthermore, the largest jackpot came in at only € 30m (out of max. € 50m), showing that the jackpot situation was well below maximum. Consequently, demand for this product continued to be weak with nationwide stakes of only € 850m in Q3, implying a 15% yoy decline and standing 8% below its LTM average.
EuroJackpot normalized: Without a peak EuroJackpot and only one run-up to € 96m (out of max € 120m), the strong demand from Q1 and Q2 could not be sustained into Q3. Hence, nationwide stakes for the EuroJackpot came in at € 1.06bn, which is nevertheless up 9% yoy, but sequentially down 17% qoq and thus only 2% below its LTM average.
Combined, nationwide lottery stakes stood at € 1.91bn in the third quarter, which is down 3% yoy, down 10% qoq and 5% below its LTM average, implying a constant user activity yoy, but a lower one qoq. - see p.2 for details
Nevertheless solid Q3 results ahead: At ZEAL, billings should grow 7% yoy (eNuW), driven by (1) strong H1 user intake offsetting lower Q3 user activity, and (2) stable average billing per user of € 61 (eNuW). More importantly, measures to raise the billings margin to 'above 15%' (eNuW: 15% vs. 13% LTM average) should boost lottery sales by 27% yoy in Q3 (eNuW; c. 90% of group sales). With marketing expenses expected to be at € 11m, group EBITDA is projected up 15% at € 11m in Q3 (eNuW). Moreover, first tangible results of the newly launched lottery product 'Traumhausverlosung' are expected with the Q3 release, giving more visibility into the product's potential.
Against this backdrop, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of € 54.00, as ZEAL continues the current chapter of elevated growth and market share gains.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30967.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity ResearchWeb: www.nuways-ag.comEmail: research@nuways-ag.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysagAdresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany++++++++++Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.Archive at www.eqs-news.com
1999063 01.10.2024 CET/CEST
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