Activity Stream
NuWays AG: Singulus Technologies AG: Halten
Original-Research: Singulus Technologies AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Singulus Technologies AG
Company Name: Singulus Technologies AG
ISIN: DE000A1681X5
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Halten
from: 09.04.2024
Target price: EUR 1.60
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Konstantin Völk
Uninspiring FY23 results, positive outlook for FY24e; chg. est.
Topic: Singulus reported uninspiring FY23 figures with top- and bottom-line
below the company’s guidance and our estimates. More importantly, FY24
could feature significant sales and EBIT growth.
FY23 sales decreased 17% yoy to € 73m (eNuW: € 77m), missing the in July
adjusted guidance of € 90-100m due to a cyclically weak Life Science
segment and postponements of some larger projects in the Solar segment. Q4
sales came in at € 16.7m, 18% lower yoy (eNuW: € 21m). FY23 EBIT stood at €
-10.1m (eNuW: € -8.9m; FY22: € 5.9m), falling short of the guidance
(positive low single digit €m). FY23 order intake decreased 25% yoy to €
43m, leading to a backlog of € 55m (FY22: € 85m).
Positively, sales in the Solar segment increased 30% yoy to € 39m (eNuW: €
43m), despite the postponement of larger projects with CNBM and a customer
in the US. The US business was particularly strong, benefiting from
subsidies related to the inflation reduction act. The Solar segment should
be a major contributor to sales growth in FY24e, due to the realization of
projects with CNBM and potential follow up orders in the package. Starting
from a high level in FY22, the Life Science segment showed weakness in
top-line growth due to the cyclical nature of the business. Sales came in
at € 23.9m, 54% lower yoy (eNuW: € 24m). The situation should remain
challenging during FY24e, as the macro environment is still clouded. The
Semiconductor segment saw solid sales of € 10.3m, increasing 66% yoy (eNuW:
€ 9.5). The outlook in the Semiconductor segment looks positive, fueled by
new products in the pipeline such as in the field of μLED. By leaving the
niche market and entering the larger μLED market, Singulus has a fair
chance of creating enough revenue to cover its fixed costs.
Management released a strong guidance for FY24e and expects to see €
120-130m in sales and EBIT in the low double-digit million range, implying
72% sales growth at midpoint (eNuW: € 97m sales; € -0.3m EBIT). However,
the outlook appears ambitious given the reduced order backlog of € 55m
(FY22: € 85m), even taken into account order intake of € 28m in Q1 as
stated in the CC. Further, a challenging macro environment, uncertainty of
subsidies in the Solar segment and the long lead times of the products will
make it difficult to reach the top-line guidance. That said, the midterm
prospects remain intact with the potential of larger orders from CNBM for
CdTe thin-film modules and a fast-growing μLED business. Hence, we
reiterate HOLD with an unchanged PT of € 1.60 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29347.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: CR Energy AG: Kaufen
Original-Research: CR Energy AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to CR Energy AG
Company Name: CR Energy AG
ISIN: DE000A2GS625
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 08.04.2024
Target price: EUR 48.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY ’23 displays strong cash generation and KPIs; chg.
CR Energy released preliminary FY figures, which came in below our
estimates but displayed an improved operating strength of the holding
companies.
FY EBIT came in at € 65m (eNuW: € 80m; eCons: € 73m), which compares to €
75m in FY ’22. The yoy decline can be mainly explained by lower valuation
gains throughout the portfolio in connection with increased discount rates.
Yet, operating cash flow increased by 4% yoy to € 4.00/share or € 22.6m.
This was predominantly due to the strongly improved operations of the
holding companies, leading to an increased cash dividend of € 27m, implying
a yoy growth rate of 62%. The equity ratio remained on a strong level of
97%.
Successful capital increase. In January, the company successfully completed
the rights issuance, which was announced in November. 232,610 new shares
were placed at a price of € 15 per share, resulting in gross proceeds of €
3.5m, which should maibly be used to strengthen the portfolio company CR
Opportunities (CRO). CRO is seen to launch its first ELTIF in the course of
H1 focusing on sustainable real estate and renewables, thus enhancing
future growth.
Besides that, CR Energy remains a major beneficiary of the increasing
demand for sustainable energy and housing solutions. Here, Terrabau and
Solartec provide a compelling offering in relation to high quality and
cost-optimized living space.
Terrabau, a general constructor offering concepts for innovative and
sustainable construction, currently has >300 units in the Berlin and
Leipzig area in the pipeline, which are seen to be in brisk demand
considering the aging residential stock, especially in Eastern Germany. In
order to optimize carbon intensity, Terrabau is acting in concert with
Solartec, which is supplying the townhouses and single-family homes with
rooftop solar rigs. In fact, Solartec is combining high-performance PV
systems and emissionfree hydrogen storage systems to allow for a 24/7
supply of sustainable energy.
Overall, the company remains well positioned in the market for sustainable
housing and is offering unique synergies to capitalize on compelling growth
prospects of the market. Hence, the stock remains a BUY with a new PT of €
48 (old: € 52) based on DDM.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29333.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH: urban-gro, Inc: Kaufen
Original-Research: urban-gro, Inc - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to urban-gro, Inc
Company Name: urban-gro, Inc
ISIN: US91704K2024
Reason for the research: Jahresergebnisse
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 04.04.2024
Target price: $4,30
Target price on sight of: 12 Monate
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Ellis Acklin
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu urban-gro, Inc.
(ISIN: US91704K2024) veröffentlicht. Analyst Ellis Acklin bestätigt seine
BUY-Empfehlung und senkt das Kursziel von USD 4,70 auf USD 4,30.
Zusammenfassung:
Trotz eines erheblichen Umsatz- und EBITDA-Rückgangs in Q4 behalten wir
unsere Kaufempfehlung für UGRO bei. Das vierte Quartal war reines Pech, als
drei kommerzielle Projekte, die bis JE23 fertiggestellt werden sollten, in
das Jahr 2024 verschoben wurden. Die Anleger reagierten auf die Nachricht
mit Verkäufen, aber wir sind der Meinung, dass sich der drastische
Aktienkursrückgang bereits bei der Q1-Berichterstattung als Überreaktion
erweisen könnte. Das Management von UGRO betonte, dass die Projekte nicht
verloren seien und in Q1 wieder aktiv waren, während es gleichzeitig
bekräftigt hat, dass das Unternehmen 2024 ein schwarzes AEBITDA erreichen
will. Die erste Guidance für 2024 unterstreicht die Notwendigkeit,
konservativ zu sein und die Glaubwürdigkeit bei den Investoren
wiederherzustellen. In der Zwischenzeit bleiben auch potenzielle
legislative Katalysatoren für amerikanisches Cannabis im Spiel. Nach
Anpassung unserer Prognosen für den Jahresbericht 2023 ist unser Kursziel
nun $4,30 (zuvor: $4,70).
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on urban-gro,
Inc. (ISIN: US91704K2024). Analyst Ellis Acklin reiterated his BUY rating
and decreased the price target from USD 4.70 to USD 4.30.
Abstract:
We are staying Buy-rated on UGRO, despite a substantial Q4 topline and
EBITDA miss. The company was snake-bitten in Q4, when three commercial
projects slated for YE completion pushed into 2024. Investors hit the bid
on the shortfall, but we think the sharp stock recoil may prove to be an
overreaction as soon as Q1 reporting. UGRO brass emphasised that the
projects were not lost and were active in Q1, while also recommitting to
achieve a black AEBITDA in 2024. The initial 2024 guide underpins the need
to be conservative and restore credibility with investors. Meanwhile,
potential legislative catalysts for American cannabis also remain in play.
Our TP moves to $4.3 (old: $4.7) after recalibrating FBe on 2023 reporting.
Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §34b WpHG und des Haftungsausschlusses
siehe die vollständige Analyse.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29323.pdf
Contact for questions
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: MPC Energy Solutions: Kaufen
Original-Research: MPC Energy Solutions - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to MPC Energy Solutions
Company Name: MPC Energy Solutions
ISIN: NL0015268814
Reason for the research: Initiation
Recommendation: Kaufen
Target price: NOK 23.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Here comes the sun // Initiate with BUY
MPC Energy Solutions (MPCES) is ready for a virtuous growth cycle: The
integrated IPP owns 144 MW (99 MW proportionate) of PV and CHP assets
(incl. under construction) and has a 336 MW development backlog (225 MW of
mature projects).
The regional focus of MPCES is Latin America and the Caribbean, which offer
plenty of attractive growth prospects. Although boasting an impressive
overall renewable energy share of 63%, certain nations, notably the
Caribbean countries, find themselves trailing behind with a meagre average
of 8% but with targets of 50-100% during the next 10-20 years. This created
a lot of pent-up demand: Until 2030, the regions need an incremental 50 GW
of renewable assets to remain on the net-zero trajectory.
Assets in these regions are in high demand due to attractive returns (>15%
equity IRRs) on the back of high power/power purchase agreement (PPA)
prices coupled with strong solar irradiation leading to high full load
hours and long-term PPAs with private corporates, private and state-owned
utilities.
However, access to suitable assets remains one of the key bottlenecks in
the industry. By offering tailored energy solutions for each client with a
technology agnostic approach rather than trying to find clients for halfway
developed projects, MPCES put itself at the forefront of the regions’
transformation, since it is (1) able to de-risk its projects and (2) gain
access to sufficient high-quality PPAs.
Ready to kick-start a cycle of growth. While FY23 was a transition year
with the departure of the former CEO and the resulting strategy overhaul
(divestment of several projects and focus on co-investments to improve
equity IRRs), the company's mid-term should be marked by strong growth.
MPCES' current proportionate production portfolio can generate annual sales
of around $ 11.4m (eNuW). This is seen to strongly increase as MPCES
executes its backlog. San Patricio alone (construction started at the end
of Feb.) should contribute $ 4m additional sales annually. The remaining
225 MW of mature development projects could boost annual proportionate
sales to roughly $ 31m (eNuW, 51% ownership and $ 65 per MW/h). With
incremental EBIT margins north of 40%, the group’s EBIT margin would hence
surpass 30% (not reflected in eNuW until the projects are under
construction).
Initiate with BUY and a NOK 23 PT. We value MPCES on a sum-of-the-parts
(SOTP) valuation, separately accounting for the value of its current IPP
portfolio (NPV) and its development backlog (multiple).
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29303.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Marley Spoon Group: Kaufen
Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Marley Spoon Group
Company Name: Marley Spoon Group
ISIN: LU2380748603
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
Target price: EUR 7.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Mark Schüssler
Mixed 2024 guidance // efficiency measures bearing fruit; chg.
Last week, Marley Spoon Group ('MSG') released a mixed 2024 guidance. Sales
are expected to grow by a single-digit percentage versus the prior year
(eNuW new: +9% yoy; eNuW old: +17% yoy), largely driven by two separate
developments owing to MSG's structure, which consists of the core mealkit
business Marley Spoon SE (>95% ownership) and the newly acquired bistroMD,
operating in the ready-to-eat business:
1) While consumer demand has stabilized throughout 2023, the company cited
cautious consumer behavior in the meal-kit market as the main culprit for
the muted outlook and now expects a single-digit percentage decline for
FY24e (eNuW new: -3% yoy; eNuW old: +5% yoy). In our view, this should be
explained by a continued normalization in the number of active subscribers
from Covid highs (eNuW: -3% yoy), the effect of which is likely more
pronounced for Europe and Australia than for the US.
2) The guidance implies, however, that on a group level its recent
acquisition of bistroMD shows a noticable impact on the overall topline
development (FY24e revenue of € 39m, +10% yoy; eNuW), demonstrating the
attractiveness and resilience of the ready-to-eat market. Besides
bistroMD's leading doctor-designed RTE meal plans playing on relevant
consumer trends like health, convenience, and weight-loss, this acquisition
likely offers MSG an opportunity to use its own data and technology
platform to generate synergies over time.
Though MSG expects its contribution margin to remain flat (FY23: ~31.7%),
operating EBITDA is seen to grow to a positive mid-single-digit figure for
the full year (eNuW: € 2m), despite the fact that bistroMD should operate
on a lower contribution margin (eNuW: ~30%) and negative EBIT due to lack
of scale. The positive margin outlook is seen to be carried by (1) a
rectified voucher strategy, likely increasing marketing efficiency and
early cohort retention rates in H2'23 and Q1'24 and (2) a more streamlined
G&A setup (-11% yoy to c. € 69m, excluding one-off costs) as costreduction
measures from automation, centralization, and the closure of underutilized
operations begin to kick in.
While it looks like 2024 will be another challenging year for the meal kit
market, we like both the strategic outlook and the operational progress MSG
has made over the past quarters towards group profitability, leading us to
reiterate our BUY rating with a changed PT of € 7.00 (old: € 8.00) based on
DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29307.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH: PNE AG: Buy
Original-Research: PNE AG - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to PNE AG
Company Name: PNE AG
ISIN: DE000A0JBPG2
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 02.04.2024
Target price: 21,00 Euro
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change: 02.02.2023: Hochstufung von Hinzufügen auf Kaufen
Analyst: Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu PNE AG (ISIN:
DE000A0JBPG2) veröffentlicht. Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal bestätigt
seine BUY-Empfehlung und senkt das Kursziel von EUR 22,00 auf EUR 21,00.
Zusammenfassung:
Im Jahr 2023 steigerte PNE das EBITDA gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 13% auf
€39,9 Mio. und erreichte damit das obere Ende der Prognose (€30-40 Mio.).
Das EBITDA übertraf unsere Prognose um 15%, was vor allem auf einen besser
als erwarteten Beitrag des Segments Stromerzeugung zurückzuführen ist. PNE
baute seine Projektpipeline im Jahresvergleich um 61% auf 19,1 GW aus und
erweiterte sein Portfolio an eigenen Onshore-Windkraftanlagen um 51 MW auf
370 MW. In den nächsten 24 Monaten sollen Windparks mit einer
Gesamtkapazität von 281 MW hinzukommen, die sich derzeit im Bau befinden.
Damit wird das Portfolio voraussichtlich deutlich auf 651 MW erweitert. PNE
strebt für 2024 ein EBITDA von €40 Mio. bis €50 Mio. an. Eine aktualisierte
Sum-of-the-Parts-Bewertung führt zu einem Kursziel von €21 (vorher: €22).
Die Hauptgründe für das niedrigere Kursziel sind niedrigere Margenannahmen
im Servicegeschäft und eine höhere Nettoverschuldung im Segment
Stromerzeugung. Angesichts der starken Projektpipeline und der steigenden
Kapazität des Ökostromportfolios sehen wir PNE bei der Umsetzung ihrer
Wachstumsstrategie 'Scale up 2.0' auf dem richtigen Weg und bekräftigen
unsere Kaufempfehlung.
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on PNE AG
(ISIN: DE000A0JBPG2). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal reiterated his BUY
rating and decreased the price target from EUR 22.00 to EUR 21.00.
Abstract:
In 2023, PNE increased EBITDA 13% y/y to €39.9m and reached the upper end
of guidance (€30m - €40m). EBITDA topped our forecast by 15% due mainly to
a better than expected contribution from the Electricity Generation
segment. PNE expanded its project pipeline by 61% y/y to 19.1 GW and added
51 MW to its onshore wind own plant portfolio, which now has a capacity of
370 MW. Wind farms with a total capacity of 281 MW currently under
construction should be added over the next 24 months. The portfolio thus
looks set to expand significantly to 651 MW. PNE is guiding towards 2024
EBITDA of €40m - €50m. An updated sum-of-the-parts valuation yields a €21
price target (previously: €22). The main reasons for the lower price target
are lower margin assumptions in the service business and a higher net debt
position in the Electricity Generation segment. Given the strong project
pipeline and the rising green power portfolio capacity, we see PNE on track
with its growth strategy 'Scale up 2.0' and reiterate our Buy
recommendation.
Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des
Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29289.pdf
Contact for questions
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: DEMIRE: Halten
Original-Research: DEMIRE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to DEMIRE
Company Name: DEMIRE
ISIN: DE000A0XFSF0
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Halten
from: 28.03.2024
Target price: EUR 1.20
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Mgmt confirms negotiations regarding bond restructuring
Topic: DEMIRE released an ad-hoc, stating that the company has entered
negotiations with a group of bondholders (Ad hoc Group), which is said to
hold “well over 50%' of the outstanding nominal amount, regarding the
restructuring of its unsecured corporate bond. Mind you, the corporate bond
is due on 15 October 2024 and has an outstanding nominal amount of € 499m
(€ 600m at issue date). The company also gave indications as to which
points a possible restructuring agreement could contain. In detail:
(1) Extension of the term until 31 December 2027 at an increased coupon as
well as additional compensation payments. While the company did not specify
on possible conditions, we estimate total annual costs of 6.5% to be in
line with the market, which would result in additional financial expenses
of c. € 23m given the current nominal amount.
(2) Mandatory repayments of the bond from the net sales proceeds of future
asset disposals. Considering a net-secured LTV of 12.5%, assets held for
sale to the tune of € 160m (as of 9M excl. LogPark), a 20% BV discount and
the net cash inflow from the LogPark sale (eNuW: € 65-70m) this figure
could amount to c. € 180m in 2024 alone.
(3) Obligation to waive dividends or other distributions to shareholders
during the extended term of the bond.
(4) Additional collateralization of the bond in favor of the bondholders,
likely via the company’s portfolio of unencumbered assets.
In addition, the company stated that one member of the Ad hoc Group intends
to dispose a position to the tune of c. 20% of the outstanding nominal
amount or c. € 100m. The company further stated that it considers
submitting a bid to acquire the corresponding position. Considering this to
be a highly distressed situation for the seller, DEMIRE would possibly be
able to acquire the position below market levels (64% as of yesterday's
close).
Yet, as all the above is still subject to approval of the Ad hoc Group as
well as an external economic feasibility analysis, we keep our forecast
model unchanged for the time being.
Given the prevailing uncertainty regarding the investment case, we
reiterate HOLD with a € 1.20 PT.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29273.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Rosenbauer International: Kaufen
Original-Research: Rosenbauer International - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Rosenbauer International
Company Name: Rosenbauer International
ISIN: AT0000922554
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 27.03.2024
Target price: EUR 54.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Refinancing agreement with lenders and capital increase
Topic: Rosenbauer reached a multilateral refinancing agreement with its
major lenders and promissory note holders. Further, the Austrian vehicle
manufacturer announced to be planning a capital increase of at least 3.4m
shares to strengthen its balance sheet.
Successful refinancing: During FY23, Rosenbauer had difficulties meeting
its covenants of an equity ratio above 20% and a net debt to EBITDA ratio
below 6. At the end of 9M FY23, the equity ratio stood at 14.3% and the net
debt to EBITDA ratio at 15. The company now announced a refinancing
agreement, which runs until November 3rd, 2025. All covenants in existing
agreements will be suspended and redefined for the duration of the
refinancing agreement (so far no details disclosed). For the term of the
refinancing agreement, any dividend payments are suspended (eNuW old: € 1.0
per share).
Material capital increase: Rosenbauer intends to issue at least 3.4m new
shares (50% increase) during 2024 to strengthen its balance sheet and
paying bondholders. Assuming a 30% discount to yesterday’s closing price of
€ 27.60, potential gross proceeds could reach roughly € 66m. € 35m of the
proceeds and additionally any excess cash in 2025 (cash sweep) shall be
used for repayments.
Healthy operating business: Rosenbauer has largely overcome the challenging
supply chain situation in FY22 & FY23 and showed a successive improvement
in its profitability during FY23. The EBIT margin in Q1 came in at -2.6%
and climbed to 2.1% in Q2, 4.4% in Q3 and 7.2% in the preliminary final
quarter, which was seasonally the strongest quarter. Due to largely
normalized chassis lead times and significant price increases from
Rosenbauer, we expect an EBIT margin of 4.6% in FY24e (FY23: 3.5%). Further
FY23 order intake increased 18% yoy to € 1.45bn, leading to a record high
order backlog of € 1.79bn. Backed by restored profitability, continued
strong demand and an improved supply chain, Rosenbauer should be able to
deliver solid FY24e results (eNuW FY24e: Sales € 1.16bn/+8.6% yoy; EBIT €
53m/ +41% yoy).
Despite the high debt ratio and stock dilution, Rosenbauer’s operating
business remains intact. The agreement with bondholders and the capital
increase are necessary steps to secure the future financing of the company.
Thus, the fact that the company has come to a solution with its bondholders
can be interpreted as positive news flow. Reiterate BUY with an unchanged €
54.00 PT, based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29265.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
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NuWays AG: S Immo: Kaufen
Original-Research: S Immo - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to S Immo
Company Name: S Immo
ISIN: AT0000652250
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 27.03.2024
Target price: EUR 19.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY ’23 showing strong rental growth - Strategy update // chg.
S IMMO released FY ’23 figures, showing strong operational results as well
as a lower-than-expected devaluation of the real estate portfolio.
FY rental income came in at € 203m (eNuW: € 193m; eCons: € 191m), up 30%
yoy thanks to acquisitions to the tune of € 1bn, mainly in Austria and the
Czech Republic as well as an improved l-f-l rental level of the portfolio.
Importantly, revenues from hotel operations increased by 24% yoy to € 70m
(eNuW: € 65m; eCons: € 64m), thus significantly exceeding pre-pandemic
levels (2019: € 59m). Overall revenues (incl. service charges) increased by
29% yoy to € 336m (eNuW: € 321m; eCons: € 323m).
Against this backdrop, FFO grew by 52% yoy to € 99.7m (eNuW: € 101m, eCons:
€ 84m), mainly driven by the improved top-line as well as operating
leverage on the G&A level. Yet, despite the strong operations, the result
from property valuations again came in negative at € -109m, which was
however below market expectations (eNuW: € -148m, eCons: € -134m).
Moreover, when taking a closer look at the regional split, one can see that
especially the German portfolio saw a strong devaluation (€ -118m) while
the CEE portfolio even gained value (€ 37m), although part of this was due
to purchase price adjustments. Nonetheless, this once more supports
management’s decision to shift the strategic focus towards the higher
yielding Eastern European office market.
In fact, S IMMO recently published a strategy update, stating that the
whole German portfolio is now included in the disposal program, which
initially only included the German residential portfolio. On top of this,
the company aims to gradually streamline the portfolio, focusing on the
divestment of small and medium-sized office properties with limited
development potential, possibly leading to a market exit in Croatia (€ 75m
BV) and Slovakia (€ 150m BV). While management did not put a number on the
disposal programs, we estimate it to comprise properties worth c. € 750m
(incl. Zagrebtower), which are set to be disposed within the next three
years (eNuW). The freed funds are seen to be merely invested into office
and retail properties in Austria and the Czech Republic. Here the company,
recently signed an LOI acquire an office and retail portfolio in the Czech
Republic from parent company CPI (€ 495m BV).
Based on continued strong operations and metrics as well as the possibility
of a delisting offer looming, S IMMO remains a BUY with a new PT of € 19.00
(old: € 18.40) based on NTA and DDM.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29267.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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GBC AG: ELARIS AG: GBC Management Interview
Original-Research: ELARIS AG - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to ELARIS AG
Company Name: ELARIS AG
ISIN: DE000A37FT17
Reason for the research: GBC Management Interview
Recommendation: GBC Management Interview
Last rating change:
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann
25/03/2024 - GBC management interview with Lars Stevenson, CEO of ELARIS AG
'We expect a strong financial year in 2024, as driven by the continued
strong growth in the e-mobility market.'
ELARIS AG (ELARIS) is a German company and a provider of fully electric
e-vehicles in the fast-growing e-mobility sector. As an automotive
manufacturer, ELARIS sources its electric cars from well-known Chinese
e-vehicle manufacturers (contract manufacturing) and sells them itself
(online sales) and via sales partners under its own ELARIS brand in Germany
and a number of other European countries (e.g. Austria). The company has
extensive technology, development and manufacturing partnerships with these
manufacturing companies (OEMs). In Germany, ELARIS has currently entered
into a cooperation with 82 car dealers and 86 Euromaster locations for the
sale (including servicing) of ELARIS electric cars and charging stations.
After ELARIS recently announced that the company was planning its initial
listing on the m:access of the Munich Stock Exchange on 14 March 2024, we
took the opportunity to conduct a management interview with Mr Lars
Stevenson, CEO of ELARIS AG. The interview focused in particular on the
IPO, the company's current growth strategy, the targets for the current
financial year and the company's prospects.
GBC: What were your motives for the IPO?
Mr Stevenson: The IPO will increase our visibility and awareness. It will
enable us to significantly expand our market position as an innovative
electromobility company and make a contribution to the global energy
transition. Needs-based and affordable electric cars are an important
factor in the global energy transition. In addition, visibility on the
capital market and future financing options will help us with our further
growth strategy.
GBC: Could you please briefly explain your business model and what sets you
apart from other e-mobility providers (USP) to our investors?
Mr Stevenson: We want to be a driver in making electric mobility suitable
for the masses, so that everyone can afford a good electric car. That's why
we currently offer a range of six electric car models in German-speaking
countries, from subcompact cars to SUVs and saloons to vans. We are
focusing on affordable and needs-based electric mobility and are working
together with large electric vehicle manufacturers in China. They produce
vehicles on our behalf that are customised to the requirements of European
customers and the local market. In some cases, we also customise the
vehicles ourselves, particularly in the software area. The models are
therefore unique. It is important to us to offer electric cars at fair
prices. The cheapest electric car is available for less than 21,000 euros
(excluding VAT).
One of our great strengths is our flexibility and speed. We quickly adapt
model specifications and ranges to changes in the market and demand.
Customers are assured of vehicle repair and maintenance as well as the sale
of accessories via ELARIS partner car dealerships. It goes without saying
that our electric cars can also be serviced by other garages. Our vehicles
are currently sold primarily in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. In
addition to our own direct sales, we rely on a partner network of car
dealerships, which will be continuously expanded.
In the charging infrastructure division, we also offer charging stations
and wallboxes. Consultancy and services in the planning of charging
infrastructure solutions are also part of our business model. Our aim is to
increasingly leverage cross-selling potential between the areas of electric
vehicles and charging infrastructure. We are therefore very diversified in
the field of e-mobility.
GBC: How do you see the current market development in the e-mobility
sector? What market trends do you see and what future developments do you
anticipate?
Mr Stevenson: E-mobility is a strong growth market. This is also confirmed
by various studies. For example, since the COVID pandemic, the share of
electric vehicles in total vehicle sales in Germany has increased tenfold.
Depending on the forecast and study, it is assumed that between 240 million
and 250 million electric vehicles will be on the road worldwide by 2030,
thus achieving a global share of 10.0% to 30.0%.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), manufacturers outside
China will need to offer affordable, competitive options in the future to
enable mass adoption of electric vehicles. Through our collaboration with
Chinese OEMs, we therefore believe we are well positioned.
GBC: You are a fast-growing company: What specific growth strategy are you
pursuing with ELARIS?
Mr Stevenson: Among other things, we want to further expand our sales and
service channels in order to increase sales, improve customer service and
strengthen the brand on the market. In particular, we are focusing on
expanding the network of affiliated car dealerships, which are to become
sales and service partners for our products. We also want to extend our
partnership with service providers for the ELARIS electric car to other
European countries so that local distributors of the ELARIS brand abroad
can also benefit from this partnership and guarantee their customers a
nationwide maintenance network.
We want to continue to raise our profile through targeted marketing
activities, e.g. via social media. We also want to open up further European
countries as part of our internationalisation strategy. In 2024, we plan to
enter the French, Polish and Spanish markets via local distributors. We
want to facilitate access to our vehicles through special subscription
models.
With the ELARIS mobile phone app, for example, every market participant
could become a 'car hire company'. Our ELARIS World platform takes care of
the entire process. The first ELARIS taxi is also on the road in Hamburg.
GBC: What can investors expect from ELARIS in the current financial year?
What sales volumes and sales figures are you aiming for in the current
financial year? Will 2024 already be a profitable year?
Mr Stevenson: We expect a strong financial year in 2024, driven by the
continued strong growth in the e-mobility market. We will launch new
attractive models with high availability, a long range and favourable
prices on the market in the short term. There will also be an e-scooter
from ELARIS in 2024, for example. Overall, we see 2024 as the first year in
which we will be able to reap the rewards of the strategic course which we
have set in recent years in terms of sales and move into completely new
dimensions.
GBC: Will ELARIS continue to strive for the designation or status of a
classic (domestic) automobile manufacturer (so-called OEM) in the future?
Mr Stevenson: The ELARIS BEO with the ELARIS VIN number will be available
as early as April. We are in the process of switching from OEM to German
manufacturer. By the third quarter, we plan to place all vehicles on the
market as a German manufacturer.
GBC: What is your general corporate vision? Where do you see ELARIS in
three to five years in terms of sales region, turnover level and product
portfolio?
Mr Stevenson: ELARIS wants to play a meaningful role in shaping
electromobility as a family of values through innovation, customer-oriented
models, prices and structures. We combine access to efficient production
facilities with an understanding of customer requirements in a wide range
of regional markets. Our lean structures and willingness to break new
ground make us flexible and fast. ELARIS clearly addresses Europe and the
Middle East. Our licence model in particular enables rapid growth. Our
products can be flexibly adapted to local markets.
A German brand still has great appeal. The fact that production takes place
in China is not really anything new for the market - many established
manufacturers produce in China.
In five years' time, our key financial figures should be in line with our
claim to be a successful global electromobility company. As a profitable
company with very dynamic sales growth, we want our shareholders to
participate in the next successful chapters of the ELARIS story.
GBC: Mr Stevenson, thank you very much for talking to us.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29235.pdf
Contact for questions
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
+++++++++++++++
Date and time of completion of the study: 25/03/2024(8:46 am)
Date and time of first distribution: 25/03/2024(10:30 am)
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: VOQUZ Labs AG: Kaufen
Original-Research: VOQUZ Labs AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to VOQUZ Labs AG
Company Name: VOQUZ Labs AG
ISIN: DE000A3CSTW4
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 22.03.2024
Target price: EUR 22.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Huge potential from promising PwC partnership // chg.
On Wednesday, VOQUZ Labs announced a strategic partnership with PwC
Solutions Germany for the marketing of remQ, the company’s business
transaction monitoring and auditing software for SAP customers. In detail:
PwC will offer its client base in Germany the establishment of a
digitalized internal control system (ICS) based on remQ. Mind you, remQ was
added to the product portfolio within the framework of the company’s first
M&A deal in early 2023. The software monitors business-critical
transactions, i.e. procure- to-pay and order-to-cash processes, in
real-time, hence improving data and transaction control across all business
areas. Moreover, customers can upsell in order to add premium solutions
such as payroll- and sanctions compliance or an AI-based criminal watchlist
name-matching tool. The software is optimized for both SAP ERP and S/4HANA
environments. PwC will likely position remQ as a managed service solution.
In our view, this should be a well needed push for remQ after a flattish
sales development in 2023 (eNuW: € 150k).
Given PwC’s market leading position with c. 13k auditing and consulting
customers in Germany, the partnership is seen to significantly facilitate
the go-to-market of remQ. As VOQUZ is typically targeting mid-sized
customers with 500-20,000 employees, we estimate the deal to have a total
potential of € 25-30m in annual revenues, based on an average annual
contract volume of € 35k (eNuW).
As VOQUZ also aims to intensify cross-promotion with its flagship software
samQ (SAP software asset management), top-line growth is seen to accelerate
from 2024e onwards. We hence conservatively expect remQ sales to triple to
€ 450k in ‘24e before doubling again to € 900k in ‘25e.
visoryQ offering further upside. While the company’s core product samQ
looks set to provide solid double-digit sales growth going forward (eNuW:
11.3% CAGR ‘23p26e) and setQ as a pure re-sell product likely remaining
flat, visoryQ is also seen to contribute with strong growth momentum going
forward. This should be, among others, driven by the ongoing S/4HANA
transition (mainstream maintenance for old ERP software ends in 2027).
To remind you, visoryQ is a tool that largely maps advisory services via
intelligent software and is designed to methodically help customers
determine the optimal ERP strategy. For example, visoryQ visualizes various
strategies to help decide whether on-premise, hyperscaler, RISE or
composable ERP is the best fit and is providing customers with cost
indications for all possible options considering the scope of service
needed for the respective organization. Thus, especially for SAP customers
who have not yet migrated to S/4HANA, visoryQ is a compelling offering in
order to optimize TCO, in our view.
After introducing the self-developed solution in Q4 '22, it already met
with brisk demand in 2023, accounting
for c. 10% of sales, e.g. € 0.5m (eNuW). Driven by an accelerating S/4HANA
transition, topline should continue to develop dynamically at a 65% CAGR
'23p-26e.
SAP cloud migration to fuel visoryQ and samQ
While the majority of SAP ERP customers has not yet migrated, SAP
introduced financial incentives at the start of the year to help
accelerating the transition to S/4HANA. Until the end of 2024, customers
opting for a cloud migration via the RISE or GROW with SAP program may
receive a one-time credit of 60% of their first year’s fee if they
currently use on-premise S/4HANA, and a 45% credit if they currently use
SAP legacy software. Apparently, SAP actively offered these incentives to
users already in Q4’23 and received positive feedback. The CPO for cloud
ERP, Mr Jan Gilg, stated that it ‘hit the right spot’ and was ‘able to
convince a lot of customers to move to Rise’.
While this should be clearly benefitting visoryQ, the ongoing cloud
migration is set to also have a positive effect on samQ, the company's SAP
software asset management tool. While cloud-based solutions offer a higher
degree of flexibility on the one hand, they also increase complexity on the
other, as they inherit an innumerable amount fo native and third-party
services. In order to be able to deal with such an increasing complexity,
there should be no way around an appropriate SAM tool like samQ, in our
view. Already today, the average SAP customers manages 3,500 users and 20
systems, i.e. has to classify 70,000 data points. As a result, roughly 30%
of SAP users are incorrectly licensed.
Overall, VOQUZ looks set to be well positioned to pick up the pace again
after a difficult H1´23 that was partially compensated by a solid H2 (click
here for update on FY '23 prelims). For FY24, we estimate 19% sales growth
(eNuW: € 6.2m), a double-digit EBITDA margin (eNuW: 15.5%) and postive FCF
(eNuW: € 0.5m).
Despite the promising share price performance YTD, valuation still looks
undemanding with the stock trading on a mere 1.2x EV/Sales and 7.8x
EV/EBITDA ‘24e (0.9x/4.4x based on FY25e) carried by the strong underlying
mid-term prospects as well as the scalability of the capital light business
model.
BUY with an unchanged PT of € 22.00 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29219.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: INDUS Holding AG: Kaufen
Original-Research: INDUS Holding AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to INDUS Holding AG
Company Name: INDUS Holding AG
ISIN: DE0006200108
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 22.03.2024
Target price: EUR 36.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Strong FCF supports further growth; chg.
Topic: INDUS reported solid FY23 figures especially in light of the
currently challenging macro environment. Results are in line with the
preliminary numbers and FY23 guidance. Further, INDUS had its capital
markets day yesterday in Frankfurt. Here are the key takeaways:
FY23 sales came in at € 1.80bn, roughly unchanged from last year, despite a
difficult macro environment. While EBIT increased by 11.9% yoy to € 150m,
it is important to note that the impairments of € 19m in FY23 due to higher
interest rates were significantly lower compared to the € 43m in FY22.
Adjusted EBIT (excl. impairments) stood at € 169m (- 4.3% yoy) resulting in
an implied adj. EBIT margin of 9.4% (- 0.4pp yoy). For FY24e we expect no
further impairment of goodwill, as interest rates are seen to reached the
zenith.
FY23 sales in the Engineering segment increased slightly to € 600m (+ 3.2%
yoy; eNuW: € 590m) and adj. EBIT increased 1.5% to € 62m, leading to a
solid adj. margin of 10.4% (- 0.1 pp), supported by an improved situation
in measurement and control engineering due to an ease of the semiconductor
shortage in FY22. Sales in the Infrastructure segment came in at € 582m
(eNuW: € 588m), almost at the previous year’s level (- 0.6% yoy). Adj. EBIT
came in at € 57m with a margin of 9.8% (-1.1 pp) and declined 11% due to
high costs for concrete and sand as well as a strong slowdown in the
construction sector. The Materials segment showed slightly lower sales of €
620m (- 2.7% yoy; eNuW: € 641m), as a result of lower sales prices and
volumes, while adj. EBIT was roughly
unchanged at € 64m (- 1.1% yoy), with a margin of 10.3% (-0.1 pp).
CMD feedback: Free cashflow in FY23 came in at € 199m and reached a new
record high, growing 96% yoy. However, cashflows were supported by a
reduction in working capital of € 30m during FY23 (FY22: + € 53m) and a €
15m inflow from the disposal of an office building. Supported by the strong
FCF, management intends to spend € 70m for acquisitions during FY24e. The
1.1m recently acquired treasury shares could serve as form of payment and
are not included in the € 70m budget. Hence, we expect to see more
acquisitions coming in this year, especially in the field of infrastructure
networks, automation and energy technologies. Considering the currently low
valuations of the German Mittelstand, this is a good opportunity to acquire
further niche players to fuel the growth for the coming years.
Attractive dividend yield: Management proposed a dividend of € 1.20 per
share (eNuW: € 1.20), making INDUS an attractive dividend stock with a
yield of 4.8% based on yesterday’s closing price. Due to the divestment of
the loss-making automotive business in FY23 and an ongoing successful
operating business, we expect a further dividend rise for the current
fiscal year (eNuW: € 1.40). Mind you, INDUS plans to pay out up to 50% of
the group’s net income. During the short- to mid-term, management plans to
grow EBIT to more than € 200m, which could lead to a dividend of € 1.90 per
share (40% payout), a 7.5% yield.
Valuation looks undemanding with shares trading at 4.4x EV/EBITDA 2024e
(26% below the 10y historical average) while offering 11% adj. FCF yield.
We reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 36 based on FCFY 2024e.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29225.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH: Media and Games Invest SE: Kaufen
Original-Research: Media and Games Invest SE - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to Media and Games Invest SE
Company Name: Media and Games Invest SE
ISIN: SE0018538068
Reason for the research: OSG Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 20.03.2024
Target price: €3,60
Target price on sight of: 12 Monate
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Ellis Acklin
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu Media and Games
Invest SE (ISIN: SE0018538068) veröffentlicht. Analyst Ellis Acklin
bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und bestätigt sein Kursziel von EUR 3,60.
Zusammenfassung:
MGI meldete für den Monat Februar einen Rekordumsatz, der durch ein
organisches Umsatzwachstum (OSG) von 25% untermauert wurde. Dies folgt auf
einen starken Anstieg des KPI auf 16% im vierten Quartal, gefolgt von 18%
im Januar. Das Management wies darauf hin, dass die Treiber des jüngsten
Aufschwungs auch im Februar sichtbar waren: (1) höhere Werbebudgets von
Kunden, (2) Gewinnung von neuen Kunden, und (3) steigende Nachfrage nach
MGIs KI-gesteuerten Contextual-Data Lösungen, da Targeting-IDs weiterhin
verschwinden. Die Performance ist ermutigend, wenn man bedenkt, dass das
organische Umsatzwachstum im Zeitraum Januar bis September letzten Jahres
kaum 1% erreicht hatte. Wir stufen MGI weiterhin mit Kaufen und einem
Kursziel von €3,60 ein.
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Media and
Games Invest SE (ISIN: SE0018538068). Analyst Ellis Acklin reiterated his
BUY rating and maintained his EUR 3.60 price target.
Abstract:
MGI reported record sales for the month of February underpinned by 25% OSG
(organic sales growth). This comes on the heels of a strong uptick in the
KPI to 16% in Q4 followed by 18% in January. MGI brass pointed out that the
drivers behind the recent upswing were again visible in February: (1)
increased ad budgets from customers; (2) new customer onboardings; and (3)
rising demand for MGI's AI-driven contextual data solutions as targeting
identifiers continue to vanish. The performance is encouraging, considering
that the OSG-needle had barely budged at ~1% in January-to-September period
last year. We are Buy-rated on MGI with a €3.6 TP.
Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §34b WpHG und des Haftungsausschlusses
siehe die vollständige Analyse.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29199.pdf
Contact for questions
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH: Deutsche Rohstoff AG: Buy
Original-Research: Deutsche Rohstoff AG - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to Deutsche Rohstoff AG
Company Name: Deutsche Rohstoff AG
ISIN: DE000A0XYG76
Reason for the research: Preliminary 2023 results
Recommendation: Buy
from: 18.03.2024
Target price: €46.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Simon Scholes, CFA
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Deutsche
Rohstoff AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY
rating and decreased the price target from EUR 47.00 to EUR 46.00.
Abstract:
2023 sales of €196.5m and EBITDA of €158.2m both came in towards the top
end of guidance. Meanwhile, 2023 production rose 32.4% to 12,700 barrels of
oil equivalent per day and was above company guidance of 12,000-12,500
boepd. Q4/23 production of 15,300 boepd (the highest in DRAG's history)
benefitted from significantly-above-type curve output at nine new wells in
the Niobrara formation in Wyoming, which came on stream last autumn. Net
CAPEX also set a new company record €145m in 2023, but thanks to the impact
of high net profitability on equity, net gearing remained constant at 42%.
Management is guiding towards investment spending of €108m for 2024, but it
is possible that this figure will rise if the oil price remains near the
current USD80. The mid-point of management EBITDA guidance of €130m-145m is
ca. €21m below the 2023 number. However, we note that 2023 EBITDA
benefitted from €17m in gains on the disposal of assets in Utah in December
and also that DRAG's current results are an order of magnitude higher than
the average EBITDA of €38m booked during 2019-21. Results from wells
drilled by DRAG in Wyoming since the company acquired its first acreage in
the state in 2020 have been very encouraging. Output from the 16 wells with
six month+ production history DRAG and its JV partner, Occidental Petroleum
(Oxy), have so far drilled into the Niobrara formation in Wyoming has
averaged 15% above type curve six months after the start of production.
DRAG/Oxy have sufficient acreage in Wyoming to drill over 200 wells. Over
90% of these potential wells are in the Niobrara formation. Since DRAG
announced the acquisition of its first acreage in Wyoming in July 2020, the
DRAG share has outperformed the S&P500 Energy Index by over 150%. DRAG's
increasingly impressive track record in Wyoming suggests that this
outperformance will continue. We maintain our Buy recommendation, but lower
the price target from €47.0 to €46.0 to reflect the ca. 30% decline in the
2024 US natural gas futures strip since our last note of 9 November (gas
accounted for ca. 10% of revenue at 9M/23 and ca. 10% of DRAG's gas
production is hedged).
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu Deutsche Rohstoff
AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76) veröffentlicht. Analyst Simon Scholes bestätigt
seine BUY-Empfehlung und senkt das Kursziel von EUR 47,00 auf EUR 46,00.
Zusammenfassung:
Der Umsatz für 2023 in Höhe von €196,5 Mio. und das EBITDA in Höhe von
€158,2 Mio. lagen beide am oberen Ende der Unternehmensguidance. Die
Produktion für das Jahr 2023 stieg um 32,4% auf 12.700 Barrel Öläquivalent
pro Tag (boepd) und lag damit über der Guidance des Unternehmens von
12.000-12.500 boepd. Die Q4/23-Produktion von 15.300 boepd (der höchste
Wert in der Geschichte der DRAG) profitierte von einer deutlich über der
Typkurve liegenden Produktion aus neun neuen Bohrungen in der
Niobrara-Formation in Wyoming, die im vergangenen Herbst in Betrieb
genommen wurden. Die Nettoinvestitionen (CAPEX) erreichten 2023 mit €145
Mio. ebenfalls einen neuen Unternehmensrekord, doch dank der hohen
Nettorentabilität blieb der Verschuldungsgrad mit 42% konstant. Das
Management geht für 2024 von Investitionsausgaben in Höhe von €108 Mio.
aus, wobei dieser Wert steigen könnte, wenn der Ölpreis in der Nähe der
aktuellen USD80-Marke bleibt. Der Mittelwert der EBITDA-Prognose des
Managements von €130 bis €145 Mio. liegt ca. €21 Mio. unter dem Wert für
2023. Wir weisen jedoch darauf hin, dass das EBITDA 2023 von €17 Mio. an
Gewinnen aus der Veräußerung von Vermögenswerten in Utah im Dezember
profitierte, und dass die aktuellen Ergebnisse der DRAG erheblich über dem
durchschnittlichen EBITDA von €38 Mio. liegen, das für 2019-21 verbucht
wurde. Die Ergebnisse der Bohrungen, die die DRAG in Wyoming niedergebracht
hat, seit das Unternehmen im Jahr 2020 seine ersten Flächen in diesem
Bundesstaat erworben hat, sind sehr ermutigend. Die Fördermenge der 16
Bohrungen mit einer Produktionshistorie von mehr als sechs Monaten, die die
DRAG und ihr Joint-Venture-Partner Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) bisher in der
Niobrara-Formation in Wyoming niedergebracht haben, liegt sechs Monate nach
Produktionsbeginn im Durchschnitt 15% über der Typkurve. DRAG/Oxy verfügen
in Wyoming über ausreichende Flächen, um über 200 Bohrungen durchzuführen.
Über 90 % dieser potenziellen Bohrungen befinden sich in der
Niobrara-Formation. Seit die DRAG im Juli 2020 den Erwerb ihrer ersten
Anbaufläche in Wyoming bekannt gab, hat die DRAG-Aktie den S&P500 Energy
Index um über 150 % übertroffen. Die zunehmend beeindruckende Erfolgsbilanz
der DRAG in Wyoming deutet darauf hin, dass sich diese Outperformance
fortsetzen wird. Wir behalten unsere Kaufempfehlung bei, senken jedoch das
Kursziel von €47,00 auf €46,00, um den Rückgang um ca. 30% der
US-Erdgas-Futures 2024 seit unserer letzten Studie vom 9. November zu
berücksichtigen (Gas machte ca. 10 % des Umsatzes in 9M/23 aus, und ca. 10
% der Gasproduktion der DRAG sind abgesichert).
Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des
Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29185.pdf
Contact for questions
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
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First Berlin Equity Research GmbH: Grand City Properties S.A.: Kaufen
Original-Research: Grand City Properties S.A. - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to Grand City Properties S.A.
Company Name: Grand City Properties S.A.
ISIN: LU0775917882
Reason for the research: Jahresergebnisse 2023
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 18.03.2024
Target price: €12,50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monate
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Ellis Acklin
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu Grand City
Properties S.A. (ISIN: LU0775917882) veröffentlicht. Analyst Ellis Acklin
bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und senkt das Kursziel von EUR 12,60 auf EUR
12,50.
Zusammenfassung:
Das Nettomietwachstum auf vergleichbarer Basis (LFL) von 3,3% führte zu
einer guten operativen Das Nettomietwachstum auf vergleichbarer Basis (LFL)
von 3,3% führte zu einer guten operativen Performance im Jahr 2023, und das
Management geht davon aus, dass sich dies in diesem Jahr fortsetzen wird.
Eine Guidance von ~3% für wurde den KPI gesetzt, wobei der Neubau weiter
hinter den Zielen zurückbleibt, kombiniert mit einer niedrigen
Leerstandsquote der deutschen Wohnimmobilien. In der Zwischenzeit
verhindern die hohen Zinsen weiterhin akzeptable Refinanzierungsoptionen
und Immobilientransaktionen. Wie erwartet, wurde der FFO 1 im vierten
Quartal aufgrund höherer Finanzierungskosten und höherer Perpetual Note
Kupons erneut belastet (-10%). Die liquiden Mittel beliefen sich auf €1,2
Mrd. und decken nun die Fälligkeiten der Schulden bis JE26. Wir sehen das
Unternehmen gut positioniert, um den weiterhin schwierigen Immobiliensektor
zu meistern. Wir bekräftigen unsere Kaufempfehlung mit einem Kursziel von
€12,50 (zuvor: €12,60).
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Grand City
Properties S.A. (ISIN: LU0775917882). Analyst Ellis Acklin reiterated his
BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 12.60 to EUR 12.50.
Abstract:
LFL rental growth of 3.3% led good operational performance in 2023, and
management expect this to continue this year and guide ~3% for the KPI with
new build falling further behind targets combined with high occupancy rates
of German resi. Meanwhile elevated interest rates continue to gate
acceptable refinancing options and property transactions. As anticipated,
FFO 1 took another hit in Q4 (-10%) due to higher financing costs and
perpetual note attribution. Cash and liquid assets tallied €1.2bn and now
cover debt maturities until YE26. The landlord looks well positioned to
handle the still challenging property sector. We remain Buy-rated on GCP
with a €12.5 target price (old: €12.6).
Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §34b WpHG und des Haftungsausschlusses
siehe die vollständige Analyse.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29179.pdf
Contact for questions
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
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or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Multitude SE: BUY
Original-Research: Multitude SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Multitude SE
Company Name: Multitude SE
ISIN: FI4000106299
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 18.03.2024
Target price: 10.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
Strong Q4 figures // Bullish FY24 guidance confirmed; chg
End of last week, Multitude reported a very strong set of Q4 figures and
confirmed its FY24 EBIT guidance of € 67.5m. In detail:
Sales came in at € 63.1m, up 9% qoq and 15% yoy, slightly above our
estimates of € 60.4m (eNuW; restated to reflect directly attributable CAC),
driven by the strong growth of the net loan book (NAR) to € 636m (21% yoy;
including c. € 60m attributable to warehouse lending). Importantly, all
segments contributed significantly to yoy NAR growth. In FY23, Multitude
reached € 231m sales (9% yoy vs eNuW: 228m).
EBIT increased by 16% qoq to € 13.5m (40% yoy), above our estimates of €
12.2m (eNuW). With 45.5m on the FY base, the company achieved its FY23
guidance of € 45m. The solid bottom line is due to stable OPEX thanks to
efficiency measures (marketing, personnel) as well as topline growth.
Driven by NAR expansion and higher reference rates, financial costs
increased to c. € 8.5m (vs eNuW: € 6.6), resulting in an EBT of
approximately € 4.1m (vs eNuW: € 6.3m).
On the back of this strong set of numbers, management confirmed the FY24
EBIT guidance of € 67.5m (vs eNuW old: € 51m) expecting further topline
growth and scale effects. In our view, the guidance looks ambitious, but
not out of range given 1) the significantly increased loan book that should
fully materialize within FY24, 2) the strong growth momentum of CapitalBox
as well as the opportunities around the new segment wholesale banking that
already gained traction in FY23. That paired with the ongoing stable
performance of the “cashcow” of the Group (ferratum) and tight cost control
that the company already showed in FY23 give us additional confidence. Mind
you that the company reached its guidance for the 3rd consecutive year in
FY23.
As the stock looks still trading at a negative EV and a 3.4x PE´24, the
growing, highly profitable, resilient and dividend paying company continues
to look undebatably cheap.
Multitude remains in our NuWays Alpha List and we reiterate BUY with an
unchanged € 10 PT, based on our residual income model.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29173.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA: BUY
Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 18.03.2024
Target price: 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
RS feedback: New formats offering upside / chg.
Last week, we hosted a digital roadshow with BVB CFO Thomas Treß, which
underpinned our view that the club is set to benefit from several
structural changes going forward. The main takeaways:
Bundesliga broadcasting rights: In Q2, the German Football League (DFL) is
starting to market the media rights for the 4-year period starting with the
season 2025/26. While the current 4-year deal has a total value of € 4.4bn,
fears were arising that the next deal could decrease in volume after the
Italian and French Leagues had to cut back recently. However, the recent
abortion of the “No-Single-Buyer-Rule” is set to intensify the bidding
contest. Hence, we do not expect a decrease and conservatively forecast the
deal volume to remain on the same level as in the current period.
New UCL. Although UEFA did not disclose final details on the prize money
distribution for the new UCL format, earnings should increase by at least
20% compared to the current format given success in the competition. Yet,
as the share of performance-based premiums will increase by 7.5pp to 37.5%,
the delta is seen to increase, depending on a teams progresses in the
tournament. Moreover, the CWC (click here for more detail) is seen to
provide a liquidity boost in 2025, which is not yet reflected in our model
as no detailed information were released yet by FIFA.
Sponsorship upside. While TV marketing or transfer sales are subject to a
certain volatility based on sporting success and talent development, sales
in the sponsoring segment are seen to deliver stable growth going forward.
Both, the expiry of the Evonik and 1&1 contracts next year as well as the
CWC and the associated new sponsorship opportunities in the US are seen to
provide upside in the coming years, in our view.
Besides that, BVB reached the quarterfinals of the UCL after beating
Eindhoven last week. As this resulted in € 10.6m additional premium
payments, BVB consequently lifted its net profit guidance range by € 10m,
which we continue to consider as conservative, given the strong H1. BVB
will now face Atletico Madrid in the quarterfinals. While we rate this as a
50/50 fixture, we conservatively do not model the € 12.5m in premiums BVB
would receive if advancing to the semifinals.
BVB shares continue to trade on attractive levels of 0.9x EV/Sales,
significantly below the peer average of 3.9x. The stock hence remains a BUY
with an unchanged PT of € 5.50 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29175.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: INDUS Holding AG: BUY
Original-Research: INDUS Holding AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to INDUS Holding AG
Company Name: INDUS Holding AG
ISIN: DE0006200108
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 15.03.2024
Target price: 36.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Bolt-on acquisitions into global megatrends; chg.
Topic: INDUS successfully completed the share repurchase program announced
on February 21st. Further, the German conglomerate expanded their portfolio
in the field of infrastructure networks and AI-based industrial automation.
Share buyback at an attractive price: During the period from February 22nd
to March 1st, INDUS conducted a public buyback for 1.1m shares at a price
of € 23 per share, which are now held as treasury shares. The volume
amounts to € 25.3m in aggregate or approximately 4.09% of the company’s
share capital. At the current trading price INDUS offers an attractive
return on investment capital, thus we view the buyback as a good capital
allocation decision.
Investment into Germany’s future infrastructure: INDUS announced the
successful acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Hauff-Technik GRIDCOM
(sales: € 21m). By that, they are strengthening the existing portfolio in
the field of infrastructure networks with the subsidiaries Weigand Bau GmbH
and Turmbau Steffens & Nölle GmbH. Hauff-Technik GRIDCOM produces passive
components for the fiberoptic infrastructure. INDUS became already in 1986
the sole shareholder of Hauff-Technik GmbH & Co. KG, which acquired 50% of
Hauff-Technik GRIDCOM in 2016. While the purchase price was not disclosed,
we would expect it to be in the mid single-digit €m range for the 50%
stake.
Investment in AI-based industrial automation: INDUS acquired Gestalt
Robotics GmbH, a specialist in the field of AI-based automation for
industrial applications (sales: € 5m). We expect the acquisition price to
be in the low to mid single-digit €m range. By acquiring Gestalt Robotics,
INDUS is expanding its engineering segment and lays the foundation to
profit from the fast growing AI market.
Attractive cashflow generation: INDUS delivered a preliminary FY23 FCF
north of € 190m, materially improving yoy (FY22: € 102m) and exceeding the
management target of € 100m, thanks to further noticeable working capital
normalizations. Supported by the divestment of the loss-making
automotive-related business in FY23, we expect INDUS to deliver FCF of €
100m in a normalized year, making it a cash cow with an attractive
normalized FCF-Yield of c. 9%.
INDUS remains attractively priced trading at only 4.3x EV/EBITDA 2024e,
which is 28% below its 10y historical average. Hence, we reiterate BUY with
an unchanged PT of € 36 based on FCFY 2024e.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29165.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: ASMALLWORLD AG: BUY
Original-Research: ASMALLWORLD AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to ASMALLWORLD AG
Company Name: ASMALLWORLD AG
ISIN: CH0404880129
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 15.03.2024
Target price: 4.30
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
FY'23 in line, growth investments to burden profitability; chg.
Topic: Yesterday, ASW released FY'23 results, in line on top line and
slightly below estimate and guidance on EBITDA level. Moreover, the
announcement of an 'investment year' should burden FY'24e profitability
temporarily in return for member growth. In detail:
Sales came in at CHF 21.2m, +15% yoy (eNuW: CHF 21.1m; guidance: CHF
20-22m) driven by strong growth in both segments: Subscriptions grew by 13%
yoy to CHF 14.8m while Services grew by 20% yoy to CHF 6.5m, thanks member
growth by 6.4% to 70.2k coupled with ARPU growth of 6% yoy.
EBITDA came in slightly lower-than-expected at CHF 2.1m (down 16% yoy;
eNuW: CHF 2.3m; guidance: CHF 2.2 - 2.4m) because the product mix shifted
towards the Emirates Skywards program and away from the Lufthansa Miles and
More program, leading to higher costs for member privileges of CHF 13.5m
(+26% yoy).
Net income however rose by 6% yoy to CHF 1.53m due to the first time
collection of GHA's dividend of CHF 0.3m, lifting the financial result
accordingly from CHF -0.2m in FY'22 to CHF 0.1m, while EPS is diluted by
the increased no. of shares following the recent capital increase.
Growth investments to burden profitability in the near-term: With last
year's acquisition of JetBeds.com, ASW now offers the value luxury travel
service value chain for its customers. Hence, the next logical step is to
increase the customer base of the social network (see p. 2), which should
be achieved by 1) expanding marketing efforts and 2) lowering the entry
threshold with a 'freemium' version, which is currently under evaluation.
Both has a short-term negative effect on profitability, but should ensure
the basis for future growth. Thereafter, the strong operating leverage of
ASW's business should let profitability rise again in FY'25e (eNuW: 11% vs.
4.5% in FY'24e). Moreover, new hires of tech-personnel should also burden
profitability.
New guidance reflects growth investments: ASW guides for CHF 23-25m in
sales (eNuW: CHF 24.4m) and an increased member base of 73 - 74k (eNuW:
73.7k), but a decline in EBITDA to CHF 1 - 1.2m (eNuW: CHF 1.1m; old: CHF
3.2m) due the investments mentioned above.
At current levels, ASW stock seems to price in the weak profitability for
FY'24e, but the market seems to underestimate the operating leverage the
business provides after this transition year. Hence, we reiterate our BUY
recommendation, but reduce our PT to CHF 4.30 (old: CHF 4.90), as we
decrease our bottom-line estimates and roll over our DCF model.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29167.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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NuWays AG: UBM Development AG: BUY
Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to UBM Development AG
Company Name: UBM Development AG
ISIN: AT0000815402
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 15.03.2024
Target price: 28.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY ’23 prelims: EBT below est. due to higher devaluation / chg.
UBM released preliminary FY ’23 figures, which came in below our estimates
following higher than anticipated devaluations of the company’s development
as well as standing asset portfolio. Management now expects an EBT loss of
€ 39m (vs eNuW of € -23.6m vs eCons € -21.4m). Final FY figures will be
released on April 11th.
Overall, UBM had to write down € 70m throughout 2023, which should have
been divided equally into project and standing asset revaluations. The main
reason for this is seen to be the ongoing weakness of the real estate
market, with only slight gradual increases in transaction volumes and ever
more larger players filing for bankruptcy (e.g. Signa). Although management
indicated that technical pressure for further devaluations in 2024e should
be limited, we conservatively estimate a slight devaluation of c. 1%.
Despite the devaluation and the redemption of its hybrid bond, UBM
continues to provide sound balance
sheet metrics with a cash position of € 152m and an equity ratio which
remains in the target corridor
of 30-35%. Importantly, the company has no major maturities until November
2025 (€ 120m corporate
bond), which marks a major competitive advantage as it provides management
with sufficient headroom
until the market regains traction.
On another positive note, the company was able to divest its 33.5% share of
Palais Hansen to Wiener Städtische in Q4. Given a fair value of € 100m, a
7% discount to book value and an LTV of 45% this should have resulted in
net cash inflows of c. € 17m (eNuW). Moreover, a 25% in the Vienna-based
project “Central Hub”, a mix between office and light industrial, was
acquired. The 9,800m sqm project is set to be completed in Q1 ’25.
Overall and despite the muted FY 2023 preliminary figures, we continue to
like UBM as we regard the company as well equipped to cope with the current
macroeconomic headwinds, as earnings from the € 2.3bn pipeline should
protect profitability going forward (eNuW: 10-15% developer margin).
Moreover, with 75% of the pipeline being planned in hybrid-timber
construction, the company is in a perfect position to benefit from the
increasing pressure for investors to comply with the EU taxonomy. Hence,
demand for projects should further increase going forward.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation with a new PT of € 28.00 based on DDM.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29169.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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