Activity Stream
NuWays AG: MAX Automation SE: BUY
Original-Research: MAX Automation SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to MAX Automation SE
Company Name: MAX Automation SE
ISIN: DE000A2DA588
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 13.03.2024
Target price: 8.20
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Konstantin Völk
Excellent growth and profitability, soft order intake; chg.
Topic: MAX released strong FY23 results, with sales and EBITDA in line with
expectations and the company’s guidance. The sales process of the
subsidiary MA micro, which is now recognized as discontinued operations, is
still ongoing.
FY23 sales (incl. MA micro) rose by 8.3% to € 443m (eNuW: € 444m), in line
with the guidance range of € 410-470m due to a strong contribution from
bdtronic (+59% yoy), offsetting the weaker Vecoplan, NSM + Jücker and MA
micro. Q4 sales grew slightly by 3.2% yoy to € 117m (eNuW: € 117m). FY23
EBITDA (incl. MA micro) came in at € 43.2m (eNuW: € 43.9m) a 28% increase
yoy, hitting the upper end of the guidance range of € 38-44m. This implies
a 9.8% margin, up 1.5pp yoy due to normalized material prices and strong
performance of bdtronic. Q4 EBITDA increased 155% yoy to € 6.2m (eNuW: €
6.9m) with a margin of 5.3% (+ 3.2pp yoy) due to a weak Q4 in FY22.
Group order intake from continued operations decreased by 16% to € 341m,
leading to an order backlog of € 206m (-21% yoy), impacted from investment
reluctance due to the ongoing economic uncertainty and higher interest
costs. Mind you, FY22 benefited from COVID-19 catch-up effects and FY23
order intake and backlog are still on a historical high level.
Outlook for FY24e for continuing operations: MAX guides for sales of €
390-450m, in line with eNuW (€ 425m), carried by a € 206m group backlog and
a healthy order pipeline. FY24e EBITDA should come in between € 31-38m
(eNuW: € 32.7m). Despite the lower order backlog, the guidance seems to be
in reach due to the postponement of some larger orders from Q4 FY23 into
FY24e as well as improving supply chains and material prices.
bdtronic showed a dynamic top- and bottom-line development (see page two),
as a result of the fulfillment of the high order backlog and continued
strong demand for dispensing and impregnation. Sales increased 59% yoy to €
104m (eNuW: € 94.7m) and EBITDA rose by 58% with a flat development in
margins at 14%, due to large investments into growth (e.g. personell, PPE).
Order intake rose by 11% yoy to a new record high of € 104m, flagging the
technological leadership and ongoing structural trends such as
electrification of the automotive industry. Order intake in Q4 came in
rather weak at € 11m compared to € 29m in Q4 FY22, due to the postponement
of a major order to FY24e.
We expect bdtronic to deliver another year of double-digit growth in FY24e
(eNuW: 12%).
Vecoplan delivered low-single-digit growth in sales and EBITDA, while
margins remained roughly unchanged at 11.5% (FY22: 11.3%). Order intake
fell by 15.6% yoy to € 145m, due to investment reluctance in Europe and US
and the postponement of orders. However, the highly profitable service
business, which accounts for c. 1/3 of sales, recorded significant growth
during FY23.
In addition to the improving operating performance, a successful divestment
of the subsidiary MA micro (company news 08.09.2023) should be a notable
share price catalyst. This would reveal, that the value of the “parts”
clearly exceeds the current Enterprise Value of the MAX Automation group,
in our view.
We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged € 8.20 PT based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29133.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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GBC AG: Aspermont Ltd.: Buy
Original-Research: Aspermont Ltd. - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to Aspermont Ltd.
Company Name: Aspermont Ltd.
ISIN: AU000000ASP3
Reason for the research: Research Report (Anno)
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: 0,07 AUD
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2024
Last rating change:
Analyst: Julien Desrosiers, Matthias Greiffenberger
Continued Growth. 2023 a consolidation year. 2024e back to double digit
growth.
Single digit growth. The company continues its growth with a 3% increase in
revenue, in line with management guidance for FY2023.
Blue Horseshoe investment write off. The decision to write off the Blue
Horseshoe investment was made due to its lack of short-term profitability.
However, the company retains the intellectual property and remains open to
revisiting the venture should industry conditions improve.
Capital efficiency. The company has improved its capital efficiency by
divesting or upgrading low-margin products and events in favor of solutions
that promise higher growth and profitability.
Normalized EBITDA remains healthy, from $2.8m to $1.7m while the normalized
NPAT grew from $0.6m to $0.8m, indicating brighter future ahead.
New playgrounds. The Company has branded their marketing services branch
into a new entity called Nexus. The Company has created two sold out live
events in the past months. The company has signed an agreement with Rick
Rule, a highly prominent in the mining sector investment realm.
Management and Key operators hiring. The company hired a new Chief
Marketing officer, Group head of content and group head of research,
bringing onboard industry wide leading executives.
Focus on long term strategy. FY2024 priority is to return to double digit
growth.
Adjusted Price Target: Based on our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, we
have adjusted our share price target to 0.07 AUD / 0.04 EUR (previously:
0.10 AUD / 0.07 EUR), reflecting our current valuation assessment.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29121.pdf
Contact for questions
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date and time of completion of this research: 11.03.2024 15:00
Date and time of first distribution: 12.03.2024 12:00
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NuWays AG: Marley Spoon Group SE: BUY
Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Marley Spoon Group SE
Company Name: Marley Spoon Group SE
ISIN: LU2380748603
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 12.03.2024
Target price: 8.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Mark Schüssler
HelloFresh’s weak outlook reflected MSG's market est.
Topic: Last Friday, Marley Spoon's (MSG) close peer HelloFresh (HFG)
released a weaker-than-expected outlook for FY24 and withdrew its FY25
(mid-term) targets on the back of particularly challenging end markets,
triggering a 40-50% sell-off of the stock. Importantly, the weak end market
sentiment should be fully reflected in our and market expectations for MSG.
What happened in detail: HFG had issued its midterm (FY25) targets of €
10bn in revenue and € 1bn in operating earnings during a time in which
consumer sentiment generally and the meal kit market particularly were
still upbeat with strong growth, apparently failing to temper consensus'
expectations regarding the Group’s ability to deliver on these goals in the
presently challenging macroeconomic environment. As a result, withdrawing
the midterm targets altogether along with a muted FY24 guidance of €
7.75-8.20bn in revenue (2-8% yoy) and adj. EBITDA of € 350-400m (between
-11% and -22% yoy) caught investors flat-footed. Investing heavily in
performance marketing and brand maintenance, the company cited higher
customer acquisition costs as the main driver for lower prospective adj.
EBITDA along with increased expenses for production capacity and ramp-up of
two newly added fulfilment centres.
What this means for MSG and our estimates: In our view, this is no
incremental negative news for Marley Spoon as our current top and bottom
line estimates already reflect a challenging end market environment. To a
considerable extent, the negative expectations regarding the meal kit
market in FY24 have already been priced in MSG’s stock after the company
posted a revenue decline of -18% in FY23, leading investors to adjust their
forward expectations accordingly.
We currently expect MSG’s organic sales to grow by 5.2% – and thus at the
midpoint of HFG’s guided FY24 revenue growth – to reach € 346m, aided by a
lower revenue base and a rectified voucher strategy which has already
improved marketing efficiency and early cohort retention rates since Q4’23
and should likely help to lift subscriber quality, order frequency as well
as basket size, going forward. In line with HFG’s statement regarding the
beginning recovery of the meal kit market, active subscribers are seen to
grow by 3% yoy to 195k after having dropped by 24% from 249k in FY22 to
189k in FY23.
Marley Spoon Group remains attractively priced trading at only 0.32x
EV/Sales 2024e, leading us to reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT
of € 8.00 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29111.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: q.beyond AG: BUY
Original-Research: q.beyond AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to q.beyond AG
Company Name: q.beyond AG
ISIN: DE0005137004
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 12.03.2024
Target price: 1.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY prelims without surprises + bullish outlook // chg.
Implied Q4 sales increased by 9% yoy to € 50.8m (eNuW: € 47.6m, eCons: €
47.4m). Growth was predominantly driven by the continued recovery of the
SAP segment (21% of sales), where revenues increased strongly by 28% yoy to
€ 10.8m (eNuW: € 8.9m), following several key customer wins as well as a
pick-up of the S/4HANA transformation. The Cloud & IoT segment (79% of
sales) showed yet another quarter with muted growth of 4.9% yoy to € 40.1m
(eNuW: 2.7% organic growth), although exceeding our estimate of € 38.7m.
Overall, FY ’23 sales increased 9.4% yoy to € 189m (eNuW & eCons: € 186m).
50% of the growth is attributable to the productive-data acquisition.
Q4 EBITDA came in at € 5.8m (eNuW & eCons: € 5.2m), implying an 11.5%
margin and a 358% yoy increase. However, the strong increase is mainly due
to a decision of the tax authorities in favor of q.beyond, which had a
positive effect of € 8.6m (eNuW: € 3.2m net cash effect in ‘24). On the
other hand, the company built up provisions amounting to € 5.3m mainly
related to the ongoing business transformation. Hence, while FY reported
EBITDA came in at € 5.7m, the operating EBITDA amounted to € 2.4m.
Notably, the company generated FCF of € 1.7m (eNuW: €1.4m, eCons: € 0.2m),
thus reaching breakeven one year ahead of target. With now € 37.6m of net
cash, CEO Rixen indicated in yesterday’s CC that M&A might already be on
the table for late 2024. Here, one possibility could be to partner up with
a company from a respective industry in order to access new verticals (see
logineer). Mind you, future M&A is not reflected in our model, thus
providing a certain upside to our estimates.
Bullish FY ’24 guidance. With the release, management also provided a 2024
outlook, targeting sales of € 192-198m (eNuW new: € 197m, eCons: € 196m)
and an EBITDA of € 8-10m (eNuW new: € 8.1m, eCons: € 7.4m). While 3% sales
growth at mid-point should be achievable, the EBITDA guidance appears quite
ambitious, as it implies an incremental margin of 125% at mid-point with
respect to the operating EBITDA. Yet, with our new estimates we expect the
company to achieve the lower end of the guided range due to (1) an
increased off- and near-shoring ratio, (2) an increased consulting and
development ratio as well as the (3) ongoing streamlining of processes in
connection with one-q.beyond (i.e. eliminate duplicate structures, optimize
order-to-cash).
New segmentation: From 2024 onwards, q.beyond will change its segment
reporting, as the new segments “Managed Services” and “Consulting” will
replace the current segmentation (“Cloud & IoT” and “SAP”). 'Managed
Services' will comprise the q.beyond data centres in Hamburg and Ulm as
well as logineer while 'Consulting' will comprises the former SAP segment
as well as the Microsoft services, ITsecurity, software development,
data-intelligence and cloud consulting. A more detailed overview is
provided below.
Remains a BUY with an unchanged PT of € 1.00 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29113.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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NuWays AG: Rubean AG: BUY
Original-Research: Rubean AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Rubean AG
Company Name: Rubean AG
ISIN: DE0005120802
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 12.03.2024
Target price: 9.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
Conservative FY24 guidance, but ambitious mid-term vision
Topic: Yesterday, Rubean announced a rather conservative topline guidance
for FY24 as well as an ambitious mid-term vision with regards to sales,
EBIT and app user. In detail:
Sales to more than double in FY24. Rubean is expecting to grow its sales by
135% at mid-point to € 2.2-2.5m in FY24. On the back of the recently
announced cooperations paired further likely customer wins, we consider
this guidance as rather conservative, still anticipating € 3.0m sales
(eNuW). As it is difficult to precisely forecast the exponential growth
trajectory, management seems to play it safe.
40+% EBIT margin by FY27. For FY27, Rubean is aiming for € 10+m in sales,
implying a 78% CAGR 2023-27e, which is even above our estimates of € 9.0m.
As we see Rubean at the forefront of the rapidly growing market for mobile
payment acceptance systems that is just at the beginning, the vision looks
reasonable. Thanks to scale effects of the highly scalable business model,
management is guiding for 40+% EBIT margin in FY27, which is in line with
our estimates (eNuW: 41%).
1m app user until 2025. Further, management is expecting 1m app user until
2025 after having reported 25k in FY23. While we think that this figure is
a bit too ambitious (eNuW: 350k, only reflecting the user potential of
existing contracts), it is not completely out of reach, as a single major
contract could completely change the picture.
Following the recent series of important strategic partnerships within a
short period of time (i.e. Global Payments, Correos, emerchantpay), Rubean
is showing once again very clearly that its leading softPOS product is
ready and that the roll-out is in full swing. Furthermore, many of the
initial pilot projects of earlier won customers went into regular
operations, generating revenues. Among these customers are national postal
services such as GLS in Spain, DPD, Express One or Dodo in Eastern Europe
but also large banks such as BBVA in Spain and Global Payments Europe. In
our view, more positive newsflow from further new partnerships within FY24
that should further ramp-up sales and EBIT going forward, is likely,
helping to beat the guidance.
BUY with an unchanged PT of € 9.00, based on our DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29115.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH: Media and Games Invest SE: Kaufen
Original-Research: Media and Games Invest SE - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to Media and Games Invest SE
Company Name: Media and Games Invest SE
ISIN: SE0018538068
Reason for the research: Jahresergebnisse
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 11.03.2024
Target price: €3,60
Target price on sight of: 12 Monate
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Ellis Acklin
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu Media and Games
Invest SE (ISIN: SE0018538068) veröffentlicht. Analyst Ellis Acklin
bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und erhöht das Kursziel von EUR 3,20 auf EUR
3,60.
Zusammenfassung:
MGI überraschte im vierten Quartal mit einer Umsatzsteigerung, die durch
ein starkes J/J organisches Wachstum (+16%) im Zeitraum von Oktober bis
Dezember gekennzeichnet war. Das Management verwies auf: (1) die Skalierung
der neuen Software-Kunden, die im Laufe des Jahres 2023 hinzukommen sind,
(2) die beschleunigte Zugkraft der kontextbezogenen Tools (ATOM, moments.AI
und ML-Optimierung für SKAN), die in einer zunehmend ID-losen Welt auf
große Resonanz stoßen, und (3) erste Anzeichen einer Erholung des
Werbemarktes. Der Umsatz (€322 Mio.) übertraf die Guidance für 2023 (€303
Mio.) und FBe (€304 Mio.). Das Management zeigte sich auch für 2024
zuversichtlich und deutete ein zweistelliges Wachstum für dieses Jahr an.
Aufgrund dieses Ausblicks haben wir unsere Prognose und unser Kursziel auf
€3,60 (zuvor: €3,20) angehoben und sind der Meinung, dass der solide
Q4-Bericht dazu beitragen wird, die seit dem Abschwung im letzten Jahr am
Werbemarkt anhaltende Skepsis der Anleger zu beenden. Wir stufen MGI
weiterhin mit Kaufen ein.
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Media and
Games Invest SE (ISIN: SE0018538068). Analyst Ellis Acklin reiterated his
BUY rating and increased the price target from EUR 3.20 to EUR 3.60.
This is an abbreviated summary. The full text of this story (including
disclosure) is attached as a pdf document. For previous reports on this or
other companies covered by First Berlin contact Gaurav Tiwari directly
(g.tiwari@firstberlin.com).
Abstract:
MGI surprised with a Q4 topline beat that featured a strong rebound (+16%)
in Y/Y organic growth for the October-to-December period. Management
pointed to: (1) scaling of new software clients onboarded throughout 2023;
(2) accelerated traction of contextual tools (ATOM, moments.AI and ML
optimization for SKAN) that are resonating strongly in an increasingly
ID-less world; and (3) early signs of an ad market recovery. Sales (€322m)
topped the 2023 adjusted revenue guide (€303m) and FBe (€304m). Management
were also upbeat about 2024 and hinted at double digit growth for the year.
We have upped FBe and our TP to €3.6 (old: €3.2) on this outlook and
believe the solid Q4 report will help end investor ennui that has persisted
since last year's ad market downturn. We remain Buy-rated on MGI.
Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §34b WpHG und des Haftungsausschlusses
siehe die vollständige Analyse.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29109.pdf
Contact for questions
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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NuWays AG: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA: BUY
Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 11.03.2024
Target price: 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Qualification for FIFA CWC 25 provides earnings upside for BVB
Following RB Leipzig´s UEFA Champions League (UCL) exit against Real Madrid
last week Borussia Dortmund is now officially qualified for FIFA Club World
Cup 2025.
The recently founded FIFA Club World Cup (CWC), which will be held in a
four-year rhythm, will take place from June to July 2025 in the USA. 32
teams will take part in the competition – selected among the winners of
continental club competitions. FIFA has recently announced the details for
qualification criteria – ensuring UEFA the participation of 12 teams from
the European confederation. Moreover, FIFA has allowed European
participants according to UEFA Champions League coefficient ranking,
whereas participants from other continental confederations will be selected
according to a FIFA ranking. UEFA has guaranteed automatic qualification to
the tournament for the last three UCL Winners plus the upcoming 2024 UCL
champion. The remaining eight teams are selected according to a coefficient
based on the 4- year performance in the UCL. Currently, Borussia is granted
the 6th place in the UEFA ranking (excluding UCL winners automatically
qualified).
While FIFA did not yet release official details on the prize money and
corresponding distribution, several media outlets like Italian “Gazzetta
dello Sport” indicated that total price money will be around € 2.5bn, which
would imply an average payment of € 78m per participant. However, since we
have no official figures yet, we do not include a possible financial impact
of the CWC qualification in our model.
Yet, in addition to the direct revenue boost, the format looks set to
increase the club’s general visibility outside of Germany and especially in
the important US market, where BVB recently opened its first permanent
office in North America. Hence, this should provide upside potential for
the club’s merchandise and sponsoring revenues. Moreover, BVB and Bayern
Munich participating in the CWC should also improve the negotiation power
of the German Football League (DFL) regarding the foreign Media
distribution rights of the Bundesliga, which would ultimately benefit BVB’s
TV Marketing revenues.
Against this backdrop as well as the strong operating performance in H1, we
reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 5.50 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29103.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Netfonds AG: BUY
Original-Research: Netfonds AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Netfonds AG
Company Name: Netfonds AG
ISIN: DE000A1MME74
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 11.03.2024
Target price: 73.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
Netfonds beat expectations // Strong FY23 prelims; chg
Netfonds reported strong FY23 prelims beating our expectations. Further,
the company provided a new guidance for FY24 that remained rather vague for
the moment. In detail:
Gross sales came in at € 197m (+12% yoy), clearly above our estimate of €
191m. Key driver were the business areas Wholesale and Regulatory &
Technology business both showing yoy growth rates north of 10% mainly
fuelled by AuA that grew by 11% to € 23.8bn (vs eNuW: € 23.2bn). Thanks to
scale effects, material expenses should have declined relatively to sales
to 80.4% (vs 80.9% in FY22) resulting in net sales of € 37.0m (3% yoy vs
eNuW: € 36.1m).
EBITDA stood at € 6.2m (-28% yoy, 85% qoq), also above estimates of € 5.7m,
mainly the result of the sound topline development compensating for higher
than anticipated OPEX of € 30.8m (4% yoy vs eNuW: € 30.4m). EBT came in at
€ 2.2m (9% yoy vs eNuW: € 1.7m) as a result of € 4.1m D&A and a financial
result of € 0.1m.
Overall, Q4 figures marked a strong finish of a sound FY23. On the back of
€ 23.8 bn AuC in FY23 as a starting point into FY24, paired with stock
markets at all-time highs after two months, topline should continue to grow
in FY24, even without new AuA inflows that we consider as very likely
(eNuW: 8% to € 25.6bn). Even better, profitable AuM from the wealth
management should grow even more dynamically (eNuW: 25% to € 4bn).
Further, the finfire platform is seen to fuel consolidation of the
insurance broker market that is in contrary to the investment adviser
market, still highly fragmented. Thanks to finfire, the selling and
managing of insurance products is much easier unlocking huge cross-selling
potentials, as the already onboarded investment adviser can additionally
offer a wide range of insurance products to its customers. Netfonds
proprietary, 360° finfire platform hence remains the key mid- to long term
growth and scalability driver.
In order to reflect the strong FY23 figures, the bright market environment
and the enormous (cross-selling) potential arising from finfire, we now
expect for FY24 € 45m net sales and an € 12.5m EBITDA, in line with
management guidance of net sales “well above € 40m” and “strong increase in
EBITDA”.
BUY with a new PT of € 73.00 (old: € 71.00), based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29105.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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NuWays AG: elumeo SE: BUY
Original-Research: elumeo SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to elumeo SE
Company Name: elumeo SE
ISIN: DE000A11Q059
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 11.03.2024
Target price: 5.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Mark Schüssler
Growth avenues lead the way in 2024 and beyond
elumeo looks set to benefit from two growth initiatives in particular which
should help both top and bottom line performance going forward:
Growth avenue #1: juwelo. We currently expect much of H1'24e to be burdened
by the continued muted consumer sentiment witnessed over the last quarters,
estimating c. € 22m (eNuW) in sales for the first half of the year (flat
yoy). While customer activity should be relatively unaffected overall for
elumeo's core platform juwelo, the mix of both products and customers will
likely reflect macroeconomic headwinds. However, whereas competitors like
Wempe overwhelmingly offer higher-priced jewelry, leading customers to
either stay or churn altogether, elumeo can prevent churn on its platform
by offering both higher- and lower-priced items and allowing customers to
simply subsititute one for the other. Thus, the average sales price is seen
to decline compared to the prior reporting period (eNuW: € 72), but the
number of items sold should steadily rise over the year to c. 645k (+2%
yoy, eNuW) as (1) the continued development of an interactive mobile
jewelry shopping app (eNuW: one-digit million figure or between c. 2-13% of
FY'23e revenue) is expected to contribute perceptibly to FY total revenue
by H2'24 and (2) AI translated automated shopping shows likely help reduce
operating costs and boost video shopping content globally, the testing of
which is still ongoing but already promising.
Growth avenue #2: jooli. The platform was launched in the Indian market to
capitalize on both lower customer acquisition costs and a trove of data
needed to enhance the app's algorithm and features such as livestream
shopping (clips of ~20 seconds) of not only jewelry but various lifestyle
products. While first KPIs like order volume are promising, jooli's
development is financed out of the company's own resources and conducted
such that customer acqusition is profitable from the beginning, causing a
slower but financially healthier ramp up. Therefore, we currently do not
expect material top or bottom line contributions from jooli before 2026e
(see also our update from February 2nd). However, as the company prepares
jooli for a successful roll-out in its European markets in the mid-term,
elumeo's core platform juwelo looks set to benefit from an eventual
recovery of the jewelry and overall e-commerce market with sales prices and
items sold likely to recover.
We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT of € 5.00 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29107.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: MLP SE: BUY
Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Company Name: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 08.03.2024
Target price: EUR 11.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Comeback of RE and performance fees around the corner; chg.
Topic: MLP released FY'23 preliminary results and suprised positively with
Q4's better than expected real
estate business. MLP also looks set to record performance fees in Q1 for
the first time since 2021.
Q4 sales in line with estimates: Sales rose by 5% yoy to € 289m (eNuW: €
294m) with a strong impact from Old-Age Provision (€ 90m, 31% of sales;
eNuW: € 102m), but also strong growth from Interest Income (€ 20.3m, +133%
yoy; eNuW: € 19.6m), Non-Life Insurance (€ 39m, +22% yoy; eNuW: € 42m) as
well as Wealth Management (€ 80m, +4% yoy; eNuW: € 91m). Surprisingly, the
negative trend in Real Estate could be stopped, as Q4 RE sales came in much
better than expected at € 26.2m, up 19% yoy (eNuW: € 5.1m), thanks to both
Brokerage (€ 11.1m, +62.4% yoy; eNuW: € 3.5m) and Development (€ 15m; flat
yoy; eNuW: € 1.6m).
Q4 EBIT in line with previously released PW: The positive impact from the
interest result (€ 12.8m; +64% yoy; eNuW: € 13.5m) led to an overall Q4
EBIT of € 25.4m, up 9% yoy, while it was also burdened by a one-off
goodwill impairment on a real estate subsidiary of € 4m.
FY'24e guidance conservative: The company guides for an EBIT range of €
75-85m (eNuW: € 89m; eCons: € 88m) for FY'24e, based on positive outlooks
in Wealth as well as Life & Health. Upside could emerge from 1) a potential
rebound in Real Estate (company guides 'very positively'), which was
already visible during Q4'23, and 2) highly profitable performance fees
which seem to be likely in Q1'24e already. Both of FERI's largest public
funds (EquityFlex & Optoflex) currently exceed the threshold to be eligible
for performance fees and the record day (March 31st, last day of Q1) is
close. Against this backdrop, management seems to guide conservatively, in
our view.
Mid-term targets confirmed: By Y/E'25e, MLP aims to achieve an EBIT in the
range of € 100-110m, based on its diversified business mix coupled with
continous growth and efficiency gains. This would imply an EBIT 23-'25e
CAGR of 19-25%.
Overall, MLP's stock is too cheap to ignore at current levels, trading at
historically low multiples. The SDAX uplisting on March 18th should also
support the stock's trading volumes and visibility. Hence, we reiterate BUY
and confirm MLP in the NuWay's Alpha List with unchanged PT of € 11.00,
based on FCFY'24e and SOTP.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29099.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: NFON AG: BUY
Original-Research: NFON AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to NFON AG
Company Name: NFON AG
ISIN: DE000A0N4N52
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 11.70
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY ’23 prelims: Another beat on the bottom-line; chg. est.
Yesterday, NFON released FY ’23 prelims, which show moderate top-line
growth but strong profitability improvements as well as another guidance
beat. The FY24 guidance points towards further ARR growth and an improving
profitability. In detail:
FY recurring revenues came in at € 77.1m (eNuW: € 76.8m), implying a
moderate 4.8% yoy increase at a continuously strong ARR ratio of 93.7%
(+2.6pp yoy). This was mainly based on slightly increased seat base of 656k
(+3.5% yoy) following further customer wins as well as successful
up-selling of premium solutions. Total sales increased by 1.9% yoy to €
82.3m (eNuW: 82.4m).
FY adj. EBITDA increased substantially to € 8.4m (vs € -1.0m in FY ’22),
thus coming in ahead of our estimates (€ 8.0m) as well as consensus (€
7.6m). With this, the company slightly outperformed the already upgraded
guidance range of € 7.8-8.3m. Reported EBITDA came in at € 6.8m (eNuW: €
6.7m) vs € -5.3m in FY ’22. The strong improvement in profitability should
have been mainly due to an improved gross margin (eNuW: +1.9pp yoy) as well
as the effect of the imposed efficiency measures especially in relation to
personnel costs (14% staff reduction after 9M) as well as improved
marketing efficiency (e.g. channel marketing. Notably, NFON will report
positive FCF (€ 1.0m vs eNuW: € -0.2m) for the first time since going
public, prooving that the cash burn of previous years is a thing of the
past now.
FY24 guidance. With the preliminary results, management also put out a
guidance for FY ’24, targeting ARR growth in the mid- to
high-single-digit-% range (eNuW new: 7.3%), an ARR ratio of >90% (eNuW:
94%) as well as an adjusted EBITDA of € 10-12m (eNuW: € 10.7m), implying a
margin of 12.5% at midpoint. Given the scalability of the capital-light
business model with strong recurring revenues and further cost-optimization
potential in the cards (e.g. DTS integration), the new outlook looks
clearly achievable.
In our view, the release fully confirms the success of the ongoing
turnaround. We continue to like the company’s positioning among the
technological leaders amid the structurally growing market for integrated
business communication. Here, especially the historically underpenetrated
German market should offer compelling growth prospects going forward.
Although NFON shares have been on a rise this week, valuation continues to
be attractive, as stock is trading on a mere 1.1x EV/Sales ‘23e. We
reiterate BUY, unchanged PT of € 11.70 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29101.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Rosenbauer International AG: BUY
Original-Research: Rosenbauer International AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Rosenbauer International AG
Company Name: Rosenbauer International AG
ISIN: AT0000922554
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 07.03.2024
Target price: 54.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Shaping the future of firefighting
Topic: Rosenbauer offers a broad range of groundbreaking products and is
actively shaping the firefighting market of tomorrow to make the future
world of firefighting safer, climate-friendly and more efficient. These
technologies range from electric vehicles to drones and satellite images.
Digital solutions make daily tasks easier. With the RDS Connected Command
software, firefighters can access operationally relevant information such
as maps, alarm data and potential hazardous chemicals on their mobile phone
or tablet computers. Further, Rosenbauer has been cooperating with the
German aerotech start-up OroraTech since the start of 2022 to detect
wildfires early using satellite systems. The aim of the strategic
partnership is to provide current and historical satellite data to
emergency services on the ground via the RDS Connected Command software.
Digital Solutions are part of Rosenbauer’s Customer Service segment, which
has been in FY23e responsible for c. 10% of total revenue (eNuW). Going
forward, we expect this business unit to grow by 7.0% in FY24e (eNuW).
The future is electric. Rosenbauer is clearly a pioneer in the
electrification of firefighting with its electric models RT (Revolutionary
Technology) and the PANTHER electric. As more cities start to forbid
vehicles with combustion engines, the demand for electric alternatives will
rise in the firefighting market. In Amsterdam, for instance, no trucks,
buses, and taxis with combustion engines are allowed into the municipal
area from 2025. Rosenbauer estimates the share of its electric vehicle
sales to reach 50% by 2030. The increasing importance of electric vehicles
does not only benefit Rosenbauer’s sales, but also supports profitability,
as the company can achieve higher margins with its electric vehicles. This
is possible because Rosenbauer builds the chassis for electric vehicles on
its own and is at the same time in the position to charge higher prices.
While those trends should have a positive impact on the P&L during the
mid-term, further, the € 1.79bn preliminary FY23 order backlog (FY22: €
1.47bn) should fuel revenue growth in FY24e as the supply chain situation
keeps improving (eNuW: + 8.6% yoy in sales). Chassis lead times for MAN,
Daimler and Volvo decreased significantly compared to FY22 and the average
price per ordered fire truck increased 12.1% yoy during the first 9M of
FY23. Hence, we expect to see an improving top- and bottomline with an
increasing EBIT margin for FY24e (eNuW: 4.6%, +1.1pp yoy). We reiterate our
BUY rating with an unchanged € 54.00 PT based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29085.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: USU Software AG: BUY
Original-Research: USU Software AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to USU Software AG
Company Name: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 07.03.2024
Target price: 30.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Q4 preview: Sequential improvements following license recovery
Topic: USU Software is going to release its 2023 annual report on March
28th, which is seen to show further sequential improvements during Q4,
partly driven by a recovery of the license sales as well as continuously
growing SaaS sales.
Q4 sales are seen coming in at € 34.9m, implying a muted 4.0% yoy but
showing further sequential improvements with 6.3% qoq. This should be
driven among others by a recovery of the license revenues, which we expect
to come in at € 3.1m thus accounting for almost half of the FY license
sales (eNuW: € 6.5m) but still 30% down yoy. Mind you, that license
revenues deteriorated in the first 9M of ’23 following prolonged sales
cycles. Besides this, SaaS sales look set to show further strong growth of
20% yoy to € 4.6m. Overall, FY ’23 sales are seen at € 133m, hence meeting
the lower end of the company’s guidance (€ 132-139m).
While growth remains muted, Q4 adj. EBITDA is expected at € 4.3m,
indicating an improved margin of 12.4% vs Q3 (+3.9pp qoq). Again, the main
driver behind this is seen to be the sequential increase in license sales,
which usually show higher initial margins compared to subscription-based
SaaS revenues. Yet, FY adj. EBITDA is anticipated to amount to € 13.1m,
thus reaching the lower end of the guidance (€ 13-15m) but also implying a
margin decline by 3.4pp to 9.9%.
2024 another transition year. While sequential improvements should continue
throughout 2024e, we still expect profitability to be slightly below the
levels of ’21 & ’22 with an adj. EBITDA margin of 12.5%. This is mainly due
to the ongoing SaaS transformation, where management aims for a >75% share
of new customer business by FY ’26 and hence a consequent decline in
license sales. While this will have an adverse short-term effect on
profitability, margins are seen to strongly expand in mid-term (eNuW: 17.1%
by FY ‘26e), as the annual subscription payments of the SaaS contracts
should equal perpetual license sales including maintenance after c. 3
years.
Although another transition year is likely laying ahead, current valuation
appears undemanding at 13x EV/EBIT ‘24e (vs historic avg. of 20x).
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 30 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29087.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: bet-at-home.com AG: HOLD
Original-Research: bet-at-home.com AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to bet-at-home.com AG
Company Name: bet-at-home.com AG
ISIN: DE000A0DNAY5
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: HOLD
from: 07.03.2024
Target price: 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
Solid FY23 prelims and FY24 guidance; chg.
Topic: Yesterday, bet-at-home reported solid FY23 prelims and released a
new guidance for FY24, which is in line with estimates. In detail:
Sales came in at € 46.2m (-14% yoy), slightly below our estimates of €
47.4m, mainly due to lower betting GGR of € 42.3m (-14% vs eNuW: € 44.5m)
that was partially compensated by Gaming GGR that stand, at € 3.8m (-14%
yoy vs eNuW: € 2.9m). but Still, sales met the management guidance of €
44-48m exactly at mid-point.
EBITDA of € 0.8m (vs € 2.1m in FY22) was in line with expectations (eNuW: €
0.7m): While personnel expenses declined as expected by 36% to € 8.7m
(eNuW: € 8.8m), other operating expenses of € 12.6m (-22% yoy) came in even
below our estimates (eNuW: € 14.2m), thanks to declining legal expenses and
efficiency measures (i.e. streamlining of operations, cost-cutting) that
bear fruit, compensating for higher marketing expenses of € 17.0m (25% yoy
vs eNuW: € 15.4m). Importantly, bet-at-home introduced the new KPI EBITDA
before special items (customer claims, liquidation of the Entertainment) in
order to show the undiluted operating performance that stand at € 2.4m (vs
€ 4.4m in FY22).
With a solid transition year in the books, we expect tailwinds from the
implemented efficiency measures and from the outsourcing and streamlining
of processes that should show its full effect in FY24. Further, higher
marketing spending in Q3/Q4´23 should materialize in H1´24, paving the way
to a successful UEFA EURO championship. bet-at-home should hence easily
reach its FY24 sales guidance of € 45-53m (eNuW: € 50m) and its EBITDA
guidance before special items of -1m to € 2.5m.
Still, the risks associated with the liquidation process of the
Entertainment Ldt. and provisions for current and potential new customer
claims are for now limiting the share's upside. Positively, we assume that
only a small portion of the receivables against the Entertainment Ldt. are
at risk and that customer claims should have stabilized. That said and
taken into account a worst-case scenario, the EV should be still clearly
negative, despite a sustainably profitable operating business.
Unfortunately, both topics should weigh on the case throughout FY24.
In order to reflect the small but incalculable risk from customer claims,
we reiterate HOLD but increase our PT to € 5.50 (old: € 3.80) rolling over
valuation to FCFY´24e.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29089.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: VOQUZ Labs AG: BUY
Original-Research: VOQUZ Labs AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to VOQUZ Labs AG
Company Name: VOQUZ Labs AG
ISIN: DE000A3CSTW4
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 07.03.2024
Target price: 22.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY prelims: Strong H2 & promising outlook / chg. est & PT
Topic: VOQUZ Labs announced preliminary FY ’23, indicating a strong
sequential recovery in H2 regarding both, top-line growth and
profitability. Management also issued a promising outlook for the coming
year. In detail:
H2 sales increased by 16% yoy to € 3.4m (eNuW: € 3.1m), which should have
been mainly driven by the company’s flagship product samQ (eNuW: 75% of
sales), as indicated by the recently published order intake figures.
Importantly, the newly launched product visoryQ, a tool that automates ERP
decisionmaking processes for SAP products, appears to be already in high
demand, accounting for 10% of sales (eNuW). Overall FY ’23 sales came in at
€ 5.2m (eNuW: € 5.0m), indicating a 11% yoy increase.
H2 EBITDA came in at € 0.9m (eNuW: € 0.3m), implying a 28% margin. The gap
to our estimate can be mainly explained by scale related to the better
top-line as well as a higher than expected share of license revenues. On
this basis, FY ’23 EBITDA turned positive at € 0.4m (eNuW: € -0.2m), an
8.6% margin. Moreover, the company indicated that EBIT might even turn
slightly positive (eNuW new: neutral), while FCF should have still been
slightly negative with € -0.2m (eNuW new) following continuous investments
into the product portfolio.
Promising outlook. Management also put out a guidance for FY ’24, targeting
sales growth of 10-20% yoy (eNuW new: +17%) and an EBITDA margin of 15-20%
(eNuW new: 16%). This should be, among others, driven by the ongoing
S/4HANA transition (mainstream maintenance for old ERP software ends in
2027), of which VOQUZ is seen to be one of the main beneficiaries
especially with its new product visoryQ, as well as compelling cross- and
up-selling opportunities. Further, we expect a slight rebound effect, after
many IT buyers postponed orders amid macro headwinds in 2023. From 2025
onwards, management aims for annual organic sales growth of >20% (eNuW new:
+25% in ‘25e & +22% in ‘26e) and EBITDA margins north of 20% (eNuW new:
20.5% in ‘25e).
Despite the strong share price performance YTD, valuation still looks
undemanding with the stock trading on a mere 1.2x EV/Sales and 7.6x
EV/EBITDA ‘24e (0.8x/4.0x based on FY25e) carried by the strong underlying
mid-term prospects as well as the scalability of the capital light business
model.
Reiterate BUY with an upgraded PT of € 22 (old: € 20) based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29091.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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NuWays AG: ZEAL Network SE: BUY
Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 06.03.2024
Target price: 51.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q4 preview: tough comp for lottery, games still small
Topic: ZEAL should release final FY'23 figures on March 20th. Here's what
we expect for Q4'23e:
Tough comp for lottery: Against a strong Q4'22 (peaking EuroJackpot), total
German lottery spending (on & offline) has declined by 9% yoy in Q4'23 (+3%
yoy for FY'23; Source: DLTB). For ZEAL it should also be hard to exceed its
strong Q4'22, as we expect a slight yoy decline of 3% to € 208m in billings
in Q4'23e. On a a FY'23e basis however, solid billings growth of 11% yoy to
€ 841m (guidance: € 800-830m) should be in the cards thanks to 1.15m MAU
(eNuW; +7.5% yoy) and an ABPU of € 61.00 (eNuW; +3.2% yoy). With an average
Lottery gross margin of 12.6% (eNuW), FY'23e sales from Lottery should grow
accordingly by of 6% yoy to € 106m (Q4: € 26.8m, -9% yoy).
Next data point of Games roll-out: While the new segment 'Games' showed
strong KPIs in its first quarter after introduction (Q3'23), we expect
further improvements in Q4, as more games were added and lottery players
should have been cross-sold. However, as regulatory approval takes more
time than anticipated, we expect conservative sales of € 1.9m (vs. € 1.2m
in Q3), based on an slightly increased pay-in for games of € 3.9m (vs. €
3.3m for Q3'23) and a constant pay-in to billings ratio.
Guidance well in reach: We expect ZEAL to exceed its lottery billings
guidance of € 800-830m (eNuW: € 841m) while the sales (€ 110-120m; eNuW: €
115m) and EBITDA (€ 30-35m; eNuW: € 33.4m) guidance should be reached at
mid-point.
Promising FY'24e outlook: While we expect Lottery sales to grow by 12% yoy
to € 119m (driven by continuous marketing driven user intake), the Games
business should also have first meaningful sales contribution of € 10m,
implying total sales growth of 18% yoy. As ZEAL currently targets existing
lottery players for its Games business, we model no marketing expenses for
Games while € 42m should be spent on Lottery for brand awareness & customer
acquisition. However, as user KPIs for Games look attractive (Q3'23 ARPU: €
7.67 at Lottery vs. € 22.02 at Games), additional € 3-8m of marketing
expenses could be spent on Games in return for more user intake during
FY'24e.
Against this backdrop, the recent share price weakness should be a buying
opportunity, especially as Q1'24 saw extraordinary strong jackpots already,
indicating a promising start into a strong growth year. Reiterate BUY with
unchanged PT of € 51.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29071.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Nabaltec AG: BUY
Original-Research: Nabaltec AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Nabaltec AG
Company Name: Nabaltec AG
ISIN: DE000A0KPPR7
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 06.03.2024
Target price: 25.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
FY23 profitability better than expected / valuation too pessimistic
Topic: While profitability in Q4 (preliminary figures) came in
significantly better than expected, sales fell slightly short of
expectations. Although FY24 is seen to also be burdened by the challenging
macro environment, valuation has more than factored it in, in our view.
Q4 sales came in at € 44.2m, down 14% yoy (eNuW € 52.2m). The shortfall to
our estimates was driven by the particularly weak Speciality Alumina (S.A.)
segment where sales declined 31% yoy due to customers' further inventory
wind-downs, generally weak demand (46% of sales from refractory customers).
Functional Fillers (F.F.) came in as expected at € 32.4m (-6% yoy). FY23
sales decreased by 8.6%; with F.F. down 4% yoy to € 142m and S.A. down 12%
yoy to € 58m. Positively, boehmite sustained its recovery, yet from low
levels. H2 volumes stood at 3.1kt, up ~64% vs H1, leading to FY volumes of
c. 5kt (flat yoy, eNuW). Nabaltec is also gaining further momentum with its
gap filler, APYRAL.
Q4 EBIT came in strong at € 5.2m, down only 6% yoy (eNuW: € 3m), a margin
of 11.7%. This was the result of a positive mix effect, i.e. decent
development of higher margin products like boehmite, APYRAL and ATH from
Nashtec vs. a strong decline at S.A. FY23 EBIT came in at € 18.3m, a 9.1%
margin.
Cautious FY24 guidance. Management expects to grow FY24 sales slightly
(eNuW new: 3.9%) with an EBIT margin of 7-9% (eNuW new: 8.6%). Growth is
expected to be carried by a slight increase of boehmite volumes (+1kt yoy),
further growing gap filler demand and improving utilization rates at its US
plants, while the remainder of F.F. and S.A. should remain rather flat yoy.
The core business (ATH and S.A.) should remain solid going forward, yet
with a certain degree of cyclicality as currently visible. Speciality
products such as boehmite and APYRAL still have the potential to
significantly drive earnings growth going forward. Yet, as a result of
uncertainties regarding the build-up of significant European/US battery
production volumes, timing and degree of growth remains difficult to
assess. Mind you, boehmite is used to coat the separator film and the
electrode in order to significantly improve safety/heat resistance of NMC,
NMx and LFP batteries.
Unjustified valuation. Nabaltec is trading on 7.5x EV/EBIT FY24e (10y avg.
at 11.9x) and a 30% discount to its book value while having a rock-solid
balance sheet (€ 94m cash, € 4m net cash) , good margins and offering a 16%
FCF yield. Remains a BUY with a new € 25 PT (old: € 31) based on FCFY 24e.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29077.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Multitude SE: BUY
Original-Research: Multitude SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Multitude SE
Company Name: Multitude SE
ISIN: FI4000106299
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 06.03.2024
Target price: 10.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
Small value-accretive acquisition through CapitalBox; chg
Yesterday, Multitude announced to have acquired the Danish factoring
specialist Omniveta Finance through its SME unit CapitalBox. Last week,
CapitalBox also launched a new collateral lending product. In detail:
Value-accretive acquisition. Founded in 2012, Omniveta is a factoring
specialist, that is purchasing invoices (eNuW: on avg. 30 days credit
period) from suppliers with a certain discount (eNuW: 10-20%, including
handling fees). With that, Omniveta is improving the overall liquidity of
Danish SME´s. We expect that the company is generating a low single digit
million Euro amount in sales and being more or less break-even on the
bottom line. Multitude is seen to have paid
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29079.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: 123fahrschule SE: Buy
Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE
Company Name: 123fahrschule SE
ISIN: DE000A2P4HL9
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 05.03.2024
Target price: 7.20
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY ’23: Strong growth and improved profitability; chg. est & PT
Last week, 123fahrschule published a sound set of FY ‘23 results. Total
sales increased by 24% yoy, coming in at € 20.6m (eNuW: € 20.2m; eCons: €
21.0m). In spite of a slight decrease in the number of private customer
registrations, sales growth was still driven by the Private Customers
segment, where sales grew by 16% yoy to € 15.6m (eNuW: € 15.9m). The
Professional Driver Education segment continued its strong growth momentum,
as sales were up 138% yoy to € 2.3m. Importantly, sales from the Driving
Instructor Training segment regained traction in Q4 (+106% yoy), as FY
sales came in at € 2.7m (+22% yoy; eNuW: € 2.2m), which was largely due to
efficiency gains.
FY EBITDA came in at € -0.8m (eNuW: € -0.7m; eCons: € -0.4m), which is
largely in line with expectations. After a neutral 9M EBITDA, the full-year
figure, once again, underpins the company's strong seasonality, which is
reflecting (1) a general reluctance of customers to take driving lessons
during Christmas season as well as (2) higher OpEx based on built-up
provisions for vacation accruals which are cumulated at YE. However, this
represents a substantial improvement compared to an EBITDA of € -2,7m in FY
‘22. In our view, this shows the effectiveness of the cost-cutting measures
introduced in December 2022, whose implementation was fulfilled in 2023.
Going forward, the company looks set to remain on its growth path, as sales
are seen to grow by 13% yoy to € 23.2m in FY’ 24e (eNuW; eCons: € 24.2m),
which should be driven by the Private Customer segment (+12% yoy) based on
increased capacity of driving instructor FTEs (+20% yoy at YE ‘24e). Yet,
we also expect a contribution from the Professional Driver Education
segment (+20% yoy), as an increased focus on corporate clients (i.e.
logistics, retail, agriculture) is seen to offset a possible negative
effect of the current government budget crisis on the awarding of education
vouchers.
Against this backdrop, EBITDA is seen to further improve to a neutral level
(eNuW; eCons: € 2.6m) before turning positive in FY ‘25e (eNuW: € 2.2m;
eCons: € 3.2m), which should be fuelled by the likely return of online
theory in 2025. In a CC scheduled for next Monday (register here),
management is going to provide more colour on this matter as well as on
possible legal changes regarding the use of simulators in driving schools.
The stock remains a BUY with a new PT of € 7.20 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29067.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH: European Lithium Limited: Buy
Original-Research: European Lithium Limited - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to European Lithium Limited
Company Name: European Lithium Limited
ISIN: AU000000EUR7
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 04.03.2024
Target price: €0.17
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Simon Scholes, CFA
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on European
Lithium Limited (ISIN: AU000000EUR7). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his
BUY rating and maintained his EUR 0.17 price target.
Abstract:
Pricing for lithium chemicals quadrupled during 2021/22 as worldwide sales
of EVs tripled. Since early 2023 prices have collapsed by ca. 80% due to
destocking at Chinese electric battery makers prompted by rising supply.
However, as always in cyclical markets, the best cure for low prices.is low
prices. New lithium projects base their funding on long term price
expectations at the time of funding. Generally, long term price forecasts
are influenced by prices at the time of funding because it is difficult for
observers to detach themselves from current prices. This pattern of
behaviour indicates that supply growth will moderate. First signs that this
is indeed happening have come in recent days as lithium commodity prices
have rallied on news that major miners are delaying planned capacity
increases. Meanwhile, the consultant Benchmark Minerals Intelligence (BMI)
sees global EV sales more than quadrupling from 13.8m units in 2023 to
59.1m in 2033 and expects the lithium market to be back in deficit from
2029 - the year we expect the Wolfsberg Lithium Project to reach full
capacity. BMI further forecasts that the lithium market will remain in
deficit into the early 2040s i.e. throughout the project's lifetime.
European Lithium (EUR) also has a 7.5% stake in the Tanbreez rare
earths/rare metals project in Greenland, which in terms of in situ tonnage
of rare earths oxides, is the largest such project in the world. It is
likely that EUR/Critical Metals shareholders will have an opportunity to
take a larger stake ahead of a planned 2025 Nasdaq listing of the project.
We maintain our Buy recommendation for EUR with price targets of €0.17 and
AUD0.28 (previously: €0.17 and AUD0.25).
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu European Lithium
Limited (ISIN: AU000000EUR7) veröffentlicht. Analyst Simon Scholes
bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und bestätigt sein Kursziel von EUR 0,17.
Zusammenfassung:
Die Preise für Lithiumchemikalien haben sich 2021/22 vervierfacht, da sich
der weltweite Absatz von Elektrofahrzeugen verdreifacht hat. Seit Anfang
2023 sind die Preise aufgrund des Abbaus von Lagerbeständen bei
chinesischen Herstellern von Elektrobatterien, der durch das steigende
Angebot ausgelöst wurde, um ca. 80 % eingebrochen. Doch wie immer in
zyklischen Märkten ist das beste Mittel gegen niedrige Preise... ein
niedriger Preis. Die Finanzierung neuer Lithiumprojekte basiert auf
langfristigen Preiserwartungen zum Zeitpunkt der Finanzierung. Im
Allgemeinen werden die langfristigen Preisprognosen von den Preisen zum
Zeitpunkt der Finanzierung beeinflusst, da es für Beobachter schwierig ist,
sich von den aktuellen Preisen zu lösen. Dieses Verhaltensmuster deutet
darauf hin, dass sich das Angebotswachstum abschwächen wird. Erste
Anzeichen dafür, dass dies tatsächlich passiert, gab es in den letzten
Tagen, als die Preise für Lithium-Rohstoffe aufgrund der Nachricht, dass
große Bergbauunternehmen geplante Kapazitätserweiterungen verschieben,
anstiegen.Das Beratungsunternehmen Benchmark Minerals Intelligence (BMI)
geht davon aus, dass sich der weltweite Absatz von Elektrofahrzeugen von
13,8 Mio. Stück im Jahr 2023 auf 59,1 Mio. Stück im Jahr 2033 mehr als
vervierfachen wird, und erwartet, dass der Lithiummarkt ab 2029 - dem Jahr,
in dem das Wolfsberg-Lithium-Projekt voraussichtlich seine volle Kapazität
erreicht - wieder im Defizit sein wird. BMI prognostiziert außerdem, dass
der Lithiummarkt bis in die frühen 2040er Jahre, d.h. während der gesamten
Laufzeit des Projekts, defizitär bleiben wird. European Lithium (EUR) hält
außerdem einen Anteil von 7,5 % am Tanbreez-Projekt für Seltene
Erden/Seltene Metalle in Grönland, das gemessen an der In-situ-Tonnage an
Seltenen Erden-Oxiden das größte derartige Projekt der Welt ist. Es ist
wahrscheinlich, dass die Aktionäre von EUR/Critical Metals die Möglichkeit
haben werden, vor der für 2025 geplanten Notierung des Projekts an der
Nasdaq einen größeren Anteil zu erwerben. Wir halten an unserer
Kaufempfehlung für EUR mit Kurszielen von €0,17 und AUD0,28 fest (zuvor:
€0,17 und AUD0,25).
Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des
Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29059.pdf
Contact for questions
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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Showing 61 to 80 of 611 entries