Original-Research: Havila Kystruten AS - from Montega AG Classification of Montega AG to Havila Kystruten AS Company Name: Havila Kystruten AS ISIN: NO0011045429 Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: Kaufen from: 03.06.2024 Target price: 2,80 NOK Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten Last rating change: - Analyst: Tim Kruse (CFA) Havila Q1: good but not great (yet) Havila Kystruten AS reported the figures for Q1 2024 last Thursday in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The company also held its first quarterly earnings call, which as a further step in the managements intention to increase capital market activities. Even if we had expected Havila to break even on EBITDA level in Q1 we would not overrate this quarter, as all relevant KPIs are moving in the right direction and there were also some one-offs in Q1. Overall sales in the first quarter amounted to 292.9 m NOK which fell short of our expectation (312.2 m NOK) due to two reasons. Firstly, the contractual revenue (Actual: 96.9 m NOK vs. MONe 102.7 m NOK) from the government was lowered by 5.7 m NOK due to an accounting effect. The contract with the Ministry of Transport includes an option to extend the contract by one year after 2030. The option rate differs from the rate in the fixed period so that this revenue loss is spread over the entire contract period. We had not yet reflected this non-cash effect in our estimates and have changed them accordingly. Secondly, the average cabin rate (ACR) of 3.900 NOK came in slightly below expectation albeit having increased considerably against the previous and last years Quarter (3.100 and 3.000 NOK respectively). The company sees good potential to increase ACR, as realized prices are still influenced by ticket sales from the previous years, where the company had to deal with several cancellations and current trips sold are showing significantly better prices. EBITDA came in at -17.5 m NOK which was below our expectation (+29 m NOK). Apart from the above mentioned effects LNG cost as well as material expenses where higher than expected, which we are reflecting in our lowered full year expectations. Also personnel cost were inflated due training expenses in the light of the ramp-up of operations. Havila will be facing its first high season with full operations of all four ships this year. Therefore the company is busy digesting the sacle-up in operations at the moment but will increase attention to streamlining operations and occupancy across the route. An indication of these efforts is the launch of the 'Pure Northern Collection'. This specially curated package, which includes a morning flight from Oslo as well as a variety of hand-picked excursions in the Arctic wonderland of Kirkenes, should increase the occupancy of the usually less populated southern route. We therefore remain confident that margins will improve considerably from here on out albeit having lowered our estimates to account for Q1 cost levels. Industry parameters promising: In the past months the cruise line industry has shown a strong booking development leading to record Q1 numbers and an increased outlook for all of the the top three cruise line operators (Carnival, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean). Although the direct overlap with the coastal express should be limited it does reflect the overall demand and appetite for cruise holidays which should also support the Coastal Express and Havila. Conclusion: Even if Havila did not quite achieve our expectation in Q1 we are satisfied with the overall development. We believe this investment case will unfold over several quarters and are certain their moat will widen as time goes by. With significantly positive FCF and the new revolving credit facility of 200 m NOK we see Havila well financed and have lowered our beta to reflect the refinancing of the tranch a bond. We therefore reiterate price target and recommendation. +++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Bitte lesen Sie unseren RISIKOHINWEIS / HAFTUNGSAUSSCHLUSS unter http://www.montega.de +++ Über Montega: Die Montega AG ist eines der führenden bankenunabhängigen Researchhäuser mit klarem Fokus auf den deutschen Mittelstand. Das Coverage-Universum umfasst Titel aus dem MDAX, TecDAX, SDAX sowie ausgewählte Nebenwerte und wird durch erfolgreiches Stock-Picking stetig erweitert. Montega versteht sich als ausgelagerter Researchanbieter für institutionelle Investoren und fokussiert sich auf die Erstellung von Research-Publikationen sowie die Veranstaltung von Roadshows, Fieldtrips und Konferenzen. Zu den Kunden zählen langfristig orientierte Value-Investoren, Vermögensverwalter und Family Offices primär aus Deutschland, der Schweiz und Luxemburg. Die Analysten von Montega zeichnen sich dabei durch exzellente Kontakte zum Top-Management, profunde Marktkenntnisse und langjährige Erfahrung in der Analyse von deutschen Small- und MidCap-Unternehmen aus. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/29947.pdf Contact for questions Montega AG - Equity Research Tel.: +49 (0)40 41111 37-80 Web: www.montega.de E-Mail: research@montega.de LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/montega-ag -------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.------------------- The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

Original-Research: Havila Kystruten AS - von Montega AG Einstufung von Montega AG zu Havila Kystruten AS Unternehmen: Havila Kystruten AS ISIN: NO0011045429 Anlass der Studie: Initiation of Coverage Empfehlung: Buy seit: 05.02.2024 Kursziel: 2.80 NOK Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten Letzte Ratingänderung: - Analyst: Tim Kruse, CFA Back on course after the perfect storm Havila Kystruten AS is a cruise line operator from Norway. Founded in 2017, it is the only company besides the incumbent Hurtigruten Group AS mandated by the Norwegian government to serve the 130 year old post ship service from Bergen to Kirkenes. Next to the port-to-port service for locals, their four vessels offer all the amenities and activities of a modern cruise ship tailored for tourists visiting the Norwegian coast. Shortly after winning the contract and placing a shipbuilding order with two shipyards in 2019, Havila was hit by the perfect storm with one of the shipyards going bankrupt,COVID-19, and their Russian fleet financier GTLK falling under sanctions. This brought the company to the brink of bankruptcy. Consequently, shareholders have had a rough voyage so far with depressed sales and earnings development due to substantially delayed delivery of the ships. Also, the company had to refinance under unfavourable conditions leading to a massive dilution for shareholders and high interest rates. That said, the market for cruises in general, and the Coastal Express in particular, has seen increasing demand in the past decade, with yearly passenger numbers rising in the high single digits up until 2019. COVID hit the industry severely, but cruises have come back strongly, with passenger numbers set to surpass 2019 levels this year and growth rates expected to be in the mid to high single digits going forward. The rising popularity of the coastal route, combined with the government's support, has enabled the incumbent, Hurtigruten Group AS, to achieve solid EBITDA margins in excess of 25% for this part of their business. However, due to Havila's brand-new and identical ships, which enable significantly leaner operations, as well as a more consistent and tailored customer experience, we see Havila in an excellent position to outperform its competitor. Additionally, the much better environmental footprint of its fleet not only attracts a more eco-friendly and younger target group, but will also serve as a strong differentiator if emission regulation is imposed for parts of the route as proposed. Due to the high investment backlog of Hurtigruten (average fleet age ~ 30years) in combination with its already crushing leverage (Net debt/EBITDA 9.6), we see Havila well positioned to not only prolong their current contract ending in 2030 but also to win additional capacity from their main rival. 2024 will be the first full year with all ships in operation, which will lead to another jump in revenue of which 50% has already been pre-sold. and a disproportionate increase in EBITDA due to the strong operating leverage exhibited by the cruise line industry. Thereafter, rising occupancy levels from increasing word-of-mouth effects and streamlined operations should further improve margins. Furthermore, the expected refinancing closer to industry spreads will be an additional driver for FCF development. Conclusions: The disadvantageous news flow Havila had to endure so far has led to a significant mispricing of Havila's shares with a discount of 75% to our estimate of fair value indicated by all valuation models (DCF scenarios, peer group, net asset value). However, the ramp-up in operations will not only lead to a strong uptake in free cashflow, but should also pave the way for a more favourable refinancing, which should be the main catalysts for a re-rating. We therefore see current levels as a unique opportunity to invest in a profitable niche market safeguarded by monopolistic revenuestreams and initiate with a 'Buy' rating and a price target of 2.80 NOK per share. +++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Bitte lesen Sie unseren RISIKOHINWEIS / HAFTUNGSAUSSCHLUSS unter http://www.montega.de +++ Über Montega: Die Montega AG ist eines der führenden bankenunabhängigen Researchhäuser mit klarem Fokus auf den deutschen Mittelstand. Das Coverage-Universum umfasst Titel aus dem MDAX, TecDAX, SDAX sowie ausgewählte Nebenwerte und wird durch erfolgreiches Stock-Picking stetig erweitert. Montega versteht sich als ausgelagerter Researchanbieter für institutionelle Investoren und fokussiert sich auf die Erstellung von Research-Publikationen sowie die Veranstaltung von Roadshows, Fieldtrips und Konferenzen. Zu den Kunden zählen langfristig orientierte Value-Investoren, Vermögensverwalter und Family Offices primär aus Deutschland, der Schweiz und Luxemburg. Die Analysten von Montega zeichnen sich dabei durch exzellente Kontakte zum Top-Management, profunde Marktkenntnisse und langjährige Erfahrung in der Analyse von deutschen Small- und MidCap-Unternehmen aus. Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28815.pdf Kontakt für Rückfragen Montega AG - Equity Research Tel.: +49 (0)40 41111 37-80 Web: www.montega.de E-Mail: research@montega.de LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/montega-ag -------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.------------------- Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.