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Company analyses & market research
In this section you can access current publications from the area of company analyses and research. The analyses are written by renowned companies and reflect their assessments with regard to the development of listed companies.

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NuWays AG: USU Software AG: Verkaufen

Original-Research: USU Software AG - from NuWays AG Classification of NuWays AG to USU Software AG Company Name: USU Software AG ISIN: DE000A0BVU28 Reason for the research: Recommendation: Verkaufen from: 24.04.2024 Target price: EUR 18.50 Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten Last rating change: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald Higher than expected offer price still way below intrinsic value Yesterday, USU announced to have reached a delisting-agreement with AUSUM GmbH (Udo Strehl) and NUNUS GmbH, a wholly owned subsidiary of AUSUM. While AUSUM already holds 53.7% of voting rights in USU, NUNUS currently does not hold any shares. On the basis of the agreement, NUNUS will offer the shareholders of USU approximately € 18.50 per share in the context of a voluntary public delisting offer. USU will submit an application to revoke the admission of the shares to the regulated market as well as all OTC markets already before the end of the offer period. Mind you, in an initial statement on the intention to delist on March 12th, it was stated that the offer price should be expected to be equivalent to the statutory minimum price, e.g. the volume-weighted average price of the past six months. According to our calculations, this would have resulted in an offer price of € 17.00 per share. While the actual offer price is now seen to be some 9% above our and markets expectations, it is still way below the intrinsic fair value of € 30, according to our DCF valuation model (2.5% LT growth, 7.6% WACC, 12.5% TY EBIT margin). Our view: Although € 18.50 is still not a fair offer (eNuW), we advise investors who have no intention of being invested in a highly illiquid asset to tender their shares once the delisting offer has been made. While we previously advised investors to HOLD the stock in anticipation of a higher-than-expected offer, we now change our recommendation to SELL at an increase PT of € 18.50, as we do not expect anymore upside. Yet, given the vast discount to the intrincis value, the case might be of interest for special situation investors, who are eyeing for a potential squeeze-out at a later stage. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/29511.pdf For additional information visit our website www.nuways-ag.com/research. Contact for questions NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ -------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.------------------- The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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NuWays AG: USU Software AG: HOLD

Original-Research: USU Software AG - from NuWays AG Classification of NuWays AG to USU Software AG Company Name: USU Software AG ISIN: DE000A0BVU28 Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: HOLD from: 14.03.2024 Target price: 17.00 Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten Last rating change: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald Delisting intention a punch in the face for investors On Tuesday evening, USU Software published an ad-hoc stating the intention to delist the company from the stock exchange. Here is what you need to know: Supported by the supervisory board, the management board of USU aims to delist the company. In order to do so, management consulted majority shareholder AUSUM (51% of voting rights), the investment vehicle of founder Udo Strehl, whether it would be prepared to make a delisting offer, which is the prerequisite for delisting a company that is listed in the prime standard. On Tuesday, AUSUM informed the management that it is seeking an agreement to finance such an offer and that the respective negotiations are in an advanced stage. Moreover, AUSUM informed the company that the offer price should be expected to be largely in line with the equivalent to the statutory minimum price, e.g. the volume-weighted average price of the past six months, in accordance with section 39 of the German Stock Exchange Act. According to our calculations this should result in an offer price of c. € 17.00 per share (€ 16.97 according to Bloomberg). During yesterday’s conference call, CEO Oberschmidt stated that the main reason for the decision was the “sustained undervaluation” of USU by the stock market, which among others would make it difficult to use the shares as M&A currency in a value accretive manner. In our view, this argument is at least questionable as shares only dropped to current levels following the company’s profit warning in August. Moreover, management stated that it is seeking substantial investments in order to considerably expand its product business following the delisting. To finance this, management aims to carve out the product business and get an external partner on board. However, management did not provide any details on the exact nature of such a partnership, stating that the process is in a “very early stage”. Our view: We agree with management regarding the undervaluation of the shares and reiterate our intrinsic fair value of € 30 per share. However, we advise investors who have no intention of being invested in a highly illiquid asset to tender their shares once the delisting offer has been made. For the time being, we change our recommendation to HOLD and reduce our PT to € 17. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/29159.pdf For additional information visit our website www.nuways-ag.com/research. Contact for questions Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research. NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ -------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.------------------- The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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NuWays AG: USU Software AG: BUY

Original-Research: USU Software AG - from NuWays AG Classification of NuWays AG to USU Software AG Company Name: USU Software AG ISIN: DE000A0BVU28 Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY from: 07.03.2024 Target price: 30.00 Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten Last rating change: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald Q4 preview: Sequential improvements following license recovery Topic: USU Software is going to release its 2023 annual report on March 28th, which is seen to show further sequential improvements during Q4, partly driven by a recovery of the license sales as well as continuously growing SaaS sales. Q4 sales are seen coming in at € 34.9m, implying a muted 4.0% yoy but showing further sequential improvements with 6.3% qoq. This should be driven among others by a recovery of the license revenues, which we expect to come in at € 3.1m thus accounting for almost half of the FY license sales (eNuW: € 6.5m) but still 30% down yoy. Mind you, that license revenues deteriorated in the first 9M of ’23 following prolonged sales cycles. Besides this, SaaS sales look set to show further strong growth of 20% yoy to € 4.6m. Overall, FY ’23 sales are seen at € 133m, hence meeting the lower end of the company’s guidance (€ 132-139m). While growth remains muted, Q4 adj. EBITDA is expected at € 4.3m, indicating an improved margin of 12.4% vs Q3 (+3.9pp qoq). Again, the main driver behind this is seen to be the sequential increase in license sales, which usually show higher initial margins compared to subscription-based SaaS revenues. Yet, FY adj. EBITDA is anticipated to amount to € 13.1m, thus reaching the lower end of the guidance (€ 13-15m) but also implying a margin decline by 3.4pp to 9.9%. 2024 another transition year. While sequential improvements should continue throughout 2024e, we still expect profitability to be slightly below the levels of ’21 & ’22 with an adj. EBITDA margin of 12.5%. This is mainly due to the ongoing SaaS transformation, where management aims for a >75% share of new customer business by FY ’26 and hence a consequent decline in license sales. While this will have an adverse short-term effect on profitability, margins are seen to strongly expand in mid-term (eNuW: 17.1% by FY ‘26e), as the annual subscription payments of the SaaS contracts should equal perpetual license sales including maintenance after c. 3 years. Although another transition year is likely laying ahead, current valuation appears undemanding at 13x EV/EBIT ‘24e (vs historic avg. of 20x). Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 30 based on DCF. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/29087.pdf For additional information visit our website www.nuways-ag.com/research. Contact for questions Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research. Kontakt für Rückfragen NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ -------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.------------------- The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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NuWays AG: USU Software AG: BUY

Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG Unternehmen: USU Software AG ISIN: DE000A0BVU28 Anlass der Studie: Update Empfehlung: BUY seit: 12.01.2024 Kursziel: 30 Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald Strong order intake to start transitionary 2024e This week, USU announced to have won two public sector framework contracts to start the year on a positive note: (1) Germany’s Federal Employment Agency (BA) commissioned USU for its TEBIT (Technical Inventory Management System IT) project. The TEBIT system of the BA is based on the USU Valuemation software and has been in productive use since 2016. To ensure a continuous stable operation, USU is now carrying out an update to the latest USU Service Management (former Valuemation) software. The deal comprises the delivery of the software licenses as well as a service package over 4 years. While the total volume was not disclosed, we estimate it to be in the lower single-digit million range. (2) A large system house from the public sector has commissioned USU to supply and implement a solution for end-to-end monitoring (E2E) in order to enable the customer to proactively monitor their applications and document the availability and performance of IT services. The total volume of the framework is in the high 6-digit range. With this, the company is kicking off a year in style, which is likely going to be another transitionary period. Mind you, USU is currently amid a SaaS transformation, which is seen to cause temporarily declining margins, due to the subscription-nature of SaaS contracts which come with lower initial margins compared to perpetual license deals where full payment is incurred at closing (+annual maintenance). However, as the annual subscription payments are seen to equal perpetual license sales including maintenance after c. 3 years and SaaS sales showing strong growth (25% CAGR ’21‘-25e), margins are seen to strongly expand from 2025 onwards. That said, we expect sales to grow 10% in 2024e to € 146m (eCons: € 146m) based on a strong order backlog (eNuW: € 81m at YE’23e), continuously increasing SaaS order intake as well as a stabilization of license sales (eNuW: -60% yoy in 2023e). Against this backdrop, adj. EBITDA is seen to return to growth (eNuW: € 18.6m). Yet, due to the aforementioned effects in relation to the SaaS transition, margins are seen slightly below ’21 & ’22 levels with 12.5%. Despite another transition year likely laying ahead, current valuation is looking undemanding and should offer an attractive entry opportunity given a 14x EV/EBIT ‘24e which compares to the historic average of 20x. BUY with an unchanged PT of € 30.00 based on DCF. Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28645.pdf Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research. Kontakt für Rückfragen NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ -------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.------------------- Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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NuWays AG: USU Software AG: BUY

Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG Unternehmen: USU Software AG ISIN: DE000A0BVU28 Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review Empfehlung: BUY seit: 23.11.2023 Kursziel: € 30,00 Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald Final Q3 in line with est. amid sequential improvements; chg. Yesterday, USU released a solid set of Q3 results, showing sequential improvements compared to the second quarter despite an ongoing underperformance of license revenues. Q3 sales increased 4.2% qoq to € 32.9 (eNuW: € 33.3m), implying a muted 1% yoy growth against a tough comparable base. Main drivers were the continuously strong growth in SaaS sales of 15.1% yoy to € 4.3m (eNuW: € 4.6m) as well as the consulting business, which grew 12% yoy to € 20.6m (eNuW: € 20.2m) thanks to the continuing strong demand for digitization services. However, this could not fully compensate for the again weak license sales, which declined 67% yoy to € 1.3m (eNuW: € 1.4m), due to prolonged sales cycles. On this basis as well as due to continuously increased R&D expenses in connection with the SaaS platform and AI projects, Q3 EBITDA steeply declined by 43% yoy to € 2.5m (eNuW: € 2.9m). Notably, USU introduced an employee stock option program in Q3 following the 2022 share buyback. Although not cash relevant, this marks a specific extraordinary expense under IFRS, which is why management decided to henceforth report an adjusted EBITDA figure. For Q3, adjusted EBITDA amounted to € 2.8m. Going forward, this will also include the newly introduced share program for executives, which is fed by Udo Strehl's personal stock portfolio. As a result, both the company’s FY as well as the mid-term guidance now refer to adjusted EBITDA. Speaking of which, management confirmed its FY outlook of € 132-139m sales (eNuW: € 133m) and now adjusted EBITDA of € 13-15m (eNuW: € 13.1m). While this looks well achievable on the top-line (+1.6% yoy implied Q4 growth at low end), license sales (eNuW: -50% yoy to € 2.2m) need to pick up the pace in Q4 in order to reach to bottom-line target (12.4% implied Q4 margin at low end). Overall, the case remains fully intact, in our view. Mind you, that a temporary decline in profitability was always in the cards given the lower initial margin of SaaS contracts compared to license sales (full payment at closing). However, as the annual SaaS payments are seen to equal the one-time license costs (+maintenance) after c. 3 years and SaaS sales showing strong growth (25% CAGR ’21‘ 25e), margins are seen strongly expand from 2025e onwards, while 2024e is seen to be another transition year. BUY, unchanged PT of € 30.00 based on DCF. Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28377.pdf Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research. Kontakt für Rückfragen NuWays AG Mittelweg 16-17 20148 Hamburg Germany info@nuways-ag.com www.nuways-ag.com -------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.------------------- Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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NuWays AG: USU Software AG: Buy

Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG Unternehmen: USU Software AG ISIN: DE000A0BVU28 Anlass der Studie: Q3 Preview Empfehlung: Buy seit: 25.10.2023 Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald Q3e: Sequential improvements as headwinds remain; chg.   USU will report Q3 figures on 22 November, which are seen to show sequential improvements compared to the previous quarter, especially on the margin side. This comes despite ongoing headwinds in connection with longer sales cycles, particularly in the license business, which led to a weak Q2.   Sales are seen to increase 5.3% qoq to € 33.3m, implying a muted 2.0% yoy, which however comes against a strong comparable base. The continuously strong growth in SaaS (eNuW: +23% yoy to € 4.6m) as well as solidly growing consulting revenues (eNuW: +10% yoy to € 20.2m) look hereby set to only partly compensate for the ongoing decline in license sales (eNuW: -65% yoy to € 1.4m). On this basis, Q3 EBITDA is expected to come in at € 2.9m (-33% yoy), implying a margin of 8.8% (+2pp qoq). The yoy profitability decline is mainly explained by the combination of an increased cost base, mainly R&D in connection with AI projects, as well as the strong decline in license sales, which usually show higher initial margins compared to consulting and SaaS revenues.   Mind you, declining license sales and hence a short-term margin compression were already included in our estimates in consideration of the company’s mid-term strategy which is to significantly increase the share of SaaS sales to >75% until 2026. While perpetual license sales provide higher initial margins, the SaaS payments are seen to equal the one-time license payments (+ annual maintenance fees) after c. 3 years, thus allowing for a significant margin expansion as hardly any incremental costs are incurred. While 2024e should be a transition year, we expect the switch to SaaS to start paying off in 2025e with an EBITDA margin of +15%.   That said, the company continues to look on track to reach its mid-term targets (until 2026e) of 10% organic sales CAGR, >25% SaaS CAGR and an EBITDA margin in the range of 17-19% thanks to the ongoing high pace of the SaaS transformation. On top of this, the continuous implementation of the “One USU” strategy, which among others aims for leaner Sales & Marketing structures, should further benefit profitability going forward.   As shares have been down heavily since the company warned in August, valuation appears ever more undemanding, trading at only 17.3x PE ‘24e, a clear discount to the 2-year forward-looking average of 25.1x. BUY, unchanged PT of € 30.00 based on DCF. Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/27961.pdf Kontakt für Rückfragen NuWays AG Mittelweg 16-17 20148 Hamburg Germany info@nuways-ag.com www.nuways-ag.com -------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.------------------- Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Note
The information available in the Company Analyses & Market Research section is provided by EQS Group AG via the distribution service DGAP. EQS is a leading international technology provider for digital investor relations. Thanks to its applications and services, more than 8,000 companies worldwide are able to fulfil complex national and international information requirements and reporting obligations securely, efficiently and simultaneously and to reach the investment community worldwide.

Currently, company analyses of the following research houses can be accessed: BankM AG, Montega AG, First Berlin Equity Research GmbH, GSC Research GmbH, GBC AG, Sphene Capital GmbH and Edison Investment Research.