Activity Stream
NuWays AG: USU Software AG: Verkaufen
Original-Research: USU Software AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to USU Software AG
Company Name: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28
Reason for the research:
Recommendation: Verkaufen
from: 24.04.2024
Target price: EUR 18.50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Higher than expected offer price still way below intrinsic value
Yesterday, USU announced to have reached a delisting-agreement with AUSUM
GmbH (Udo Strehl) and NUNUS GmbH, a wholly owned subsidiary of AUSUM. While
AUSUM already holds 53.7% of voting rights in USU, NUNUS currently does not
hold any shares. On the basis of the agreement, NUNUS will offer the
shareholders of USU approximately € 18.50 per share in the context of a
voluntary public delisting offer. USU will submit an application to revoke
the admission of the shares to the regulated market as well as all OTC
markets already before the end of the offer period.
Mind you, in an initial statement on the intention to delist on March 12th,
it was stated that the offer price
should be expected to be equivalent to the statutory minimum price, e.g.
the volume-weighted average
price of the past six months. According to our calculations, this would
have resulted in an offer price of € 17.00 per share.
While the actual offer price is now seen to be some 9% above our and
markets expectations, it is still way below the intrinsic fair value of €
30, according to our DCF valuation model (2.5% LT growth, 7.6% WACC, 12.5%
TY EBIT margin).
Our view: Although € 18.50 is still not a fair offer (eNuW), we advise
investors who have no intention of being invested in a highly illiquid
asset to tender their shares once the delisting offer has been made. While
we previously advised investors to HOLD the stock in anticipation of a
higher-than-expected offer, we now change our recommendation to SELL at an
increase PT of € 18.50, as we do not expect anymore upside. Yet, given the
vast discount to the intrincis value, the case might be of interest for
special situation investors, who are eyeing for a potential squeeze-out at
a later stage.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29511.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: USU Software AG: HOLD
Original-Research: USU Software AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to USU Software AG
Company Name: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: HOLD
from: 14.03.2024
Target price: 17.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Delisting intention a punch in the face for investors
On Tuesday evening, USU Software published an ad-hoc stating the intention
to delist the company from the stock exchange. Here is what you need to
know:
Supported by the supervisory board, the management board of USU aims to
delist the company. In order to do so, management consulted majority
shareholder AUSUM (51% of voting rights), the investment vehicle of founder
Udo Strehl, whether it would be prepared to make a delisting offer, which
is the prerequisite for delisting a company that is listed in the prime
standard.
On Tuesday, AUSUM informed the management that it is seeking an agreement
to finance such an offer and that the respective negotiations are in an
advanced stage. Moreover, AUSUM informed the company that the offer price
should be expected to be largely in line with the equivalent to the
statutory minimum price, e.g. the volume-weighted average price of the past
six months, in accordance with section 39 of the German Stock Exchange Act.
According to our calculations this should result in an offer price of c. €
17.00 per share (€ 16.97 according to Bloomberg).
During yesterday’s conference call, CEO Oberschmidt stated that the main
reason for the decision was the “sustained undervaluation” of USU by the
stock market, which among others would make it difficult to use the shares
as M&A currency in a value accretive manner. In our view, this argument is
at least questionable as shares only dropped to current levels following
the company’s profit warning in August. Moreover, management stated that it
is seeking substantial investments in order to considerably expand its
product business following the delisting. To finance this, management aims
to carve out the product business and get an external partner on board.
However, management did not provide any details on the exact nature of such
a partnership, stating that the process is in a “very early stage”.
Our view: We agree with management regarding the undervaluation of the
shares and reiterate our intrinsic fair value of € 30 per share. However,
we advise investors who have no intention of being invested in a highly
illiquid asset to tender their shares once the delisting offer has been
made. For the time being, we change our recommendation to HOLD and reduce
our PT to € 17.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29159.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: USU Software AG: BUY
Original-Research: USU Software AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to USU Software AG
Company Name: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 07.03.2024
Target price: 30.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Q4 preview: Sequential improvements following license recovery
Topic: USU Software is going to release its 2023 annual report on March
28th, which is seen to show further sequential improvements during Q4,
partly driven by a recovery of the license sales as well as continuously
growing SaaS sales.
Q4 sales are seen coming in at € 34.9m, implying a muted 4.0% yoy but
showing further sequential improvements with 6.3% qoq. This should be
driven among others by a recovery of the license revenues, which we expect
to come in at € 3.1m thus accounting for almost half of the FY license
sales (eNuW: € 6.5m) but still 30% down yoy. Mind you, that license
revenues deteriorated in the first 9M of ’23 following prolonged sales
cycles. Besides this, SaaS sales look set to show further strong growth of
20% yoy to € 4.6m. Overall, FY ’23 sales are seen at € 133m, hence meeting
the lower end of the company’s guidance (€ 132-139m).
While growth remains muted, Q4 adj. EBITDA is expected at € 4.3m,
indicating an improved margin of 12.4% vs Q3 (+3.9pp qoq). Again, the main
driver behind this is seen to be the sequential increase in license sales,
which usually show higher initial margins compared to subscription-based
SaaS revenues. Yet, FY adj. EBITDA is anticipated to amount to € 13.1m,
thus reaching the lower end of the guidance (€ 13-15m) but also implying a
margin decline by 3.4pp to 9.9%.
2024 another transition year. While sequential improvements should continue
throughout 2024e, we still expect profitability to be slightly below the
levels of ’21 & ’22 with an adj. EBITDA margin of 12.5%. This is mainly due
to the ongoing SaaS transformation, where management aims for a >75% share
of new customer business by FY ’26 and hence a consequent decline in
license sales. While this will have an adverse short-term effect on
profitability, margins are seen to strongly expand in mid-term (eNuW: 17.1%
by FY ‘26e), as the annual subscription payments of the SaaS contracts
should equal perpetual license sales including maintenance after c. 3
years.
Although another transition year is likely laying ahead, current valuation
appears undemanding at 13x EV/EBIT ‘24e (vs historic avg. of 20x).
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 30 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29087.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: USU Software AG: BUY
Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG
Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG
Unternehmen: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28
Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 12.01.2024
Kursziel: 30
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Strong order intake to start transitionary 2024e
This week, USU announced to have won two public sector framework contracts
to start the year on a positive note: (1) Germany’s Federal Employment
Agency (BA) commissioned USU for its TEBIT (Technical Inventory Management
System IT) project. The TEBIT system of the BA is based on the USU
Valuemation software and has been in productive use since 2016. To ensure a
continuous stable operation, USU is now carrying out an update to the
latest USU Service Management (former Valuemation) software. The deal
comprises the delivery of the software licenses as well as a service
package over 4 years. While the total volume was not disclosed, we estimate
it to be in the lower single-digit million range. (2) A large system house
from the public sector has commissioned USU to supply and implement a
solution for end-to-end monitoring (E2E) in order to enable the customer to
proactively monitor their applications and document the availability and
performance of IT services. The total volume of the framework is in the
high 6-digit range.
With this, the company is kicking off a year in style, which is likely
going to be another transitionary period. Mind you, USU is currently amid a
SaaS transformation, which is seen to cause temporarily declining margins,
due to the subscription-nature of SaaS contracts which come with lower
initial margins compared to perpetual license deals where full payment is
incurred at closing (+annual maintenance). However, as the annual
subscription payments are seen to equal perpetual license sales including
maintenance after c. 3 years and SaaS sales showing strong growth (25% CAGR
’21‘-25e), margins are seen to strongly expand from 2025 onwards.
That said, we expect sales to grow 10% in 2024e to € 146m (eCons: € 146m)
based on a strong order backlog (eNuW: € 81m at YE’23e), continuously
increasing SaaS order intake as well as a stabilization of license sales
(eNuW: -60% yoy in 2023e). Against this backdrop, adj. EBITDA is seen to
return to growth (eNuW: € 18.6m). Yet, due to the aforementioned effects in
relation to the SaaS transition, margins are seen slightly below ’21 & ’22
levels with 12.5%.
Despite another transition year likely laying ahead, current valuation is
looking undemanding and should offer an attractive entry opportunity given
a 14x EV/EBIT ‘24e which compares to the historic average of 20x. BUY with
an unchanged PT of € 30.00 based on DCF.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28645.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
NuWays AG: USU Software AG: BUY
Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG
Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG
Unternehmen: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28
Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 23.11.2023
Kursziel: € 30,00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Final Q3 in line with est. amid sequential improvements; chg.
Yesterday, USU released a solid set of Q3 results, showing sequential
improvements compared to the second quarter despite an ongoing
underperformance of license revenues.
Q3 sales increased 4.2% qoq to € 32.9 (eNuW: € 33.3m), implying a muted 1%
yoy growth against a tough comparable base. Main drivers were the
continuously strong growth in SaaS sales of 15.1% yoy to € 4.3m (eNuW: €
4.6m) as well as the consulting business, which grew 12% yoy to € 20.6m
(eNuW: € 20.2m) thanks to the continuing strong demand for digitization
services. However, this could not fully compensate for the again weak
license sales, which declined 67% yoy to € 1.3m (eNuW: € 1.4m), due to
prolonged sales cycles.
On this basis as well as due to continuously increased R&D expenses in
connection with the SaaS platform and AI projects, Q3 EBITDA steeply
declined by 43% yoy to € 2.5m (eNuW: € 2.9m). Notably, USU introduced an
employee stock option program in Q3 following the 2022 share buyback.
Although not cash relevant, this marks a specific extraordinary expense
under IFRS, which is why management decided to henceforth report an
adjusted EBITDA figure. For Q3, adjusted EBITDA amounted to € 2.8m. Going
forward, this will also include the newly introduced share program for
executives, which is fed by Udo Strehl's personal stock portfolio. As a
result, both the company’s FY as well as the mid-term guidance now refer to
adjusted EBITDA.
Speaking of which, management confirmed its FY outlook of € 132-139m sales
(eNuW: € 133m) and now adjusted EBITDA of € 13-15m (eNuW: € 13.1m). While
this looks well achievable on the top-line (+1.6% yoy implied Q4 growth at
low end), license sales (eNuW: -50% yoy to € 2.2m) need to pick up the pace
in Q4 in order to reach to bottom-line target (12.4% implied Q4 margin at
low end).
Overall, the case remains fully intact, in our view. Mind you, that a
temporary decline in profitability was always in the cards given the lower
initial margin of SaaS contracts compared to license sales (full payment at
closing). However, as the annual SaaS payments are seen to equal the
one-time license costs (+maintenance) after c. 3 years and SaaS sales
showing strong growth (25% CAGR ’21‘ 25e), margins are seen strongly expand
from 2025e onwards, while 2024e is seen to be another transition year.
BUY, unchanged PT of € 30.00 based on DCF.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28377.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG
Mittelweg 16-17
20148 Hamburg
Germany
info@nuways-ag.com
www.nuways-ag.com
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
NuWays AG: USU Software AG: Buy
Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG
Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG
Unternehmen: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28
Anlass der Studie: Q3 Preview
Empfehlung: Buy
seit: 25.10.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Q3e: Sequential improvements as headwinds remain; chg.
USU will report Q3 figures on 22 November, which are seen to show
sequential improvements compared to the previous quarter, especially on the
margin side. This comes despite ongoing headwinds
in connection with longer sales cycles, particularly in the license
business, which led to a weak Q2.
Sales are seen to increase 5.3% qoq to € 33.3m, implying a muted 2.0% yoy,
which however comes against a strong comparable base. The continuously
strong growth in SaaS (eNuW: +23% yoy to €
4.6m) as well as solidly growing consulting revenues (eNuW: +10% yoy to €
20.2m) look hereby set to only partly compensate for the ongoing decline in
license sales (eNuW: -65% yoy to € 1.4m).
On this basis, Q3 EBITDA is expected to come in at € 2.9m (-33% yoy),
implying a margin of 8.8% (+2pp qoq). The yoy profitability decline is
mainly explained by the combination of an increased cost
base, mainly R&D in connection with AI projects, as well as the strong
decline in license sales, which usually show higher initial margins
compared to consulting and SaaS revenues.
Mind you, declining license sales and hence a short-term margin compression
were already included in our estimates in consideration of the company’s
mid-term strategy which is to significantly increase
the share of SaaS sales to >75% until 2026. While perpetual license sales
provide higher initial margins, the SaaS payments are seen to equal the
one-time license payments (+ annual maintenance
fees) after c. 3 years, thus allowing for a significant margin expansion as
hardly any incremental costs are incurred. While 2024e should be a
transition year, we expect the switch to SaaS to start paying
off in 2025e with an EBITDA margin of +15%.
That said, the company continues to look on track to reach its mid-term
targets (until 2026e) of 10% organic sales CAGR, >25% SaaS CAGR and an
EBITDA margin in the range of 17-19% thanks to the
ongoing high pace of the SaaS transformation. On top of this, the
continuous implementation of the “One USU” strategy, which among others
aims for leaner Sales & Marketing structures, should further benefit
profitability going forward.
As shares have been down heavily since the company warned in August,
valuation appears ever more undemanding, trading at only 17.3x PE ‘24e, a
clear discount to the 2-year forward-looking average of
25.1x.
BUY, unchanged PT of € 30.00 based on DCF.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/27961.pdf
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG
Mittelweg 16-17
20148 Hamburg
Germany
info@nuways-ag.com
www.nuways-ag.com
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.