Activity Stream
GBC AG: Advanced Blockchain AG: Buy
Original-Research: Advanced Blockchain AG - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to Advanced Blockchain AG
Company Name: Advanced Blockchain AG
ISIN: DE000A0M93V6
Reason for the research: Research Comment
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: 17.64 EUR
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2025
Last rating change:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Julien Desrosiers
Company performance in a challenging environment exceeds expectations with
significant value increases in the top 10 portfolio positions - target
price raised to €17.64 (previously: €11.00)
Advanced Blockchain AG has published preliminary figures for the fiscal
year 2023. The revenue of Advanced Blockchain AG fell to €5.2 million in
2023 (from €14.73 million the previous year), but still exceeded the
forecasted mark of €5.0 million. The significant increase in preliminary
EBIT to €2.2 million, an improvement of more than 40% compared to 2022,
demonstrates effective cost control and a strengthened focus on high-margin
activities.
The appreciation of the top 10 portfolio (according to AVS appraisal) from
€39.65 million by more than 45% to €57.5 million is particularly
noteworthy. This shows Advanced Blockchain AG's strategic competence in
investing early in promising blockchain technologies and successfully
developing them. With the development of the AI-supported research platform
'ABX Analytics,' Advanced Blockchain AG continues to position itself as a
leader in innovation in the blockchain sector and aims to expand its
service offering and generate stable, recurring revenues.
Furthermore, Advanced Blockchain AG has started the new fiscal year 2024
with impressive financial results. The company has already generated over
€1 million this year and over €3 million in the last ten months from the
sale of assets, which were sold at significant profits. As of April 15,
2024, the company's cash balance amounts to more than €2 million.
Advanced Blockchain AG plans to use the free capital to drive its expansion
plans. A notable investment was the acquisition of rights to Celestia (TIA)
tokens, which have already generated a significant book profit exceeding
ten times the original investment.
In summary, Advanced Blockchain positions itself successfully for further
growth in the dynamic blockchain industry through effective asset
management and strategic investments. As part of the growth strategy,
Advanced Blockchain is actively recruiting new talent to strengthen the
team and further advance the development of ABX Analytics.
Given the recent surge in Bitcoin to an all-time high, we see a significant
improvement in the market environment. This leads us to gradually reduce
our valuation discount, which was set during the 'Crypto Winter.'
Therefore, we are raising our rating for Advanced Blockchain AG's shares.
The Bitcoin halving, expected tonight at 22:30, will halve the reward for
mining a block from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoins. Historically, such halvings
have led to significant price increases as they slow down the new
production of Bitcoins.
The current undervaluation of Advanced Blockchain AG is particularly
evident when considering only the 10 largest positions in the portfolio and
the entire market capitalization. These top positions alone, according to
the AVS valuation report, represent a fair value of at least €57.5 million,
while the market capitalization of Advanced Blockchain is currently only
about €15.14 million (Tradegate 19.04.2024 11:01). We estimate the total
value of the portfolio, including updated valuations, at around €105
million. We estimate the holding costs at about €2 million. Thus, we have
estimated the company value based on the net asset value (NAV) at about
€103 million, which corresponds to a value of €27.14 per share. With the
significantly improved market situation in the crypto markets, we are
gradually reducing our original 'Crypto Winter' discount from 53% to 35%.
This has led us to determine a fair value per share of €17.64 (previously:
€11.00). Given the considerable upside potential, we assign a 'buy' rating.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29473.pdf
Contact for questions
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
+++++++++++++++
Date (time) of completion: 19.04.2024 (12:40)
Date (time) of first publication: 19.04.2024 (14:00)
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH: Deutsche Rohstoff AG: Buy
Original-Research: Deutsche Rohstoff AG - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to Deutsche Rohstoff AG
Company Name: Deutsche Rohstoff AG
ISIN: DE000A0XYG76
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 16.04.2024
Target price: €54,00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Simon Scholes, CFA
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Deutsche
Rohstoff AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY
rating and increased the price target from EUR 46.00 to EUR 54.00.
Abstract:
DRAG has raised its 2024 guidance. Management is now looking for revenue of
€210m-€230m (previously: €175m-€195m) and EBITDA of €160m-€180m
(previously: €130m- €145m). The guidance upgrade is based on strong volume
from existing wells and expansion of the drilling programme. The wells
which came on stream in late 2023 have maintained high output levels into
the new year and Q1/24 production was 14% above budget. DRAG is now guiding
towards full-year production of 14,700-15,700 barrels of oil equivalent per
day (boepd). The mid-point of this guidance is 20% above last year's
production figure of 12,700 boepd and is all the more spectacular when one
considers that the Utah transaction at the end of 2023 entailed the
disposal of assets which generated 10% of last year's production. Higher
than expected cashflows so far this year have prompted management to add 6
to 7 wells to the original 2024 drilling schedule. DRAG is now guiding
towards 2024 investment volume of €145m-€165m (previously: €110m), but
despite the hefty rise in production, we still expect net gearing to fall
this year. The upward revision to DRAG's sales and EBITDA guidance is based
solely on volume. Management's 2024 oil price assumption is unchanged at
USD75/bbl and the gas price assumption is now USD2/MMBtu (previously:
USD3/MMBtu). The oil price has averaged USD78/bbl so far this year.
Clearly, if the oil price remains at its current level of USD85/bbl, there
could be further upside to 2024 guidance. We have moved our forecasts into
line with 2024 guidance and also reworked our medium term numbers to
reflect DRAG's capacity to shoulder a substantial drilling programme
without overstretching its balance sheet. DRAG will publish first 2025
guidance in the annual report on 23 April. On the basis of current
commodity strips, we believe that DRAG is capable of sustaining revenue
above €200m in the mid-term, while reducing net gearing. We maintain our
Buy recommendation and raise the price target to €54.00 (previously:
€46.0).
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu Deutsche Rohstoff
AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76) veröffentlicht. Analyst Simon Scholes bestätigt
seine BUY-Empfehlung und erhöht das Kursziel von EUR 46,00 auf EUR 54,00.
Zusammenfassung:
Die DRAG hat ihre Prognose für 2024 angehoben. Das Management rechnet nun
mit einem Umsatz von €210 Mio. bis €230 Mio. (bisher: € 175 Mio. bis €195
Mio.) und einem EBITDA von €160 Mio. bis €180 Mio. (bisher: €130 Mio. bis
€145 Mio.). Die Anhebung der Prognose basiert auf dem starken Volumen der
bestehenden Bohrungen und der Ausweitung des Bohrprogramms. Die Ende 2023
in Betrieb genommenen Bohrungen haben auch im neuen Jahr ein hohes
Produktionsniveau aufrechterhalten, und die Produktion in Q1/24 lag 14%
über dem Budget. Die DRAG geht nun von einer Gesamtjahresproduktion von
14.700-15.700 Barrel Öläquivalent pro Tag (boepd) aus. Die Mitte dieser
Prognose liegt 20 % über der letztjährigen Produktion von 12.700 boepd und
ist umso spektakulärer, wenn man bedenkt, dass mit der Utah-Transaktion
Ende 2023 Vermögenswerte veräußert wurden, die 10 % der letztjährigen
Produktion ausmachten. Höhere als erwartete Cashflows in diesem Jahr haben
das Management veranlasst, den ursprünglichen Bohrplan für 2024 um 6 bis 7
Bohrungen zu erweitern. Die DRAG rechnet nun für 2024 mit einem
Investitionsvolumen von €145 Mio. bis €165 Mio. (bisher: €110 Mio.), aber
trotz des starken Produktionsanstiegs erwarten wir, dass der
Nettoverschuldungsgrad in diesem Jahr noch sinken wird. Die Anpassung der
Umsatz- und EBITDA-Prognose nach oben basiert ausschließlich auf dem
Volumen. Das Management geht für 2024 unverändert von einem Ölpreis von
USD75/bbl und einem Gaspreis von USD2/MMBtu aus (vorher: USD3 MMBtu). In
diesem Jahr lag der Ölpreis bisher im Durchschnitt bei 78 USD/bbl. Bleibt
der Rohstoffpreis auf dem derzeitigen Niveau von 85 USD/bbl, könnte die
Guidance für 2024 weiter nach oben korrigiert werden. Wir haben unsere
eigenen Prognosen mit der Guidance für 2024 in Einklang gebracht und auch
unsere mittelfristigen Zahlen überarbeitet, um die Fähigkeit DRAGs
widerzuspiegeln, ein umfangreiches Bohrprogramm zu schultern, ohne seine
Bilanz zu überlasten. Die DRAG wird ihre erste Guidance für 2025 im
Jahresbericht am 23. April veröffentlichen. Auf der Grundlage der aktuellen
Rohstoffpreise gehen wir davon aus, dass die DRAG in der Lage ist,
mittelfristig nachhaltig einen Umsatz von über €200 Mio. zu erzielen und
gleichzeitig den Verschuldungsgrad weiter zu senken. Wir behalten unsere
Kaufempfehlung bei und erhöhen das Kursziel auf €54,00 (bisher: €46,00).
Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des
Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29435.pdf
Contact for questions
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH: PNE AG: Buy
Original-Research: PNE AG - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to PNE AG
Company Name: PNE AG
ISIN: DE000A0JBPG2
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 02.04.2024
Target price: 21,00 Euro
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change: 02.02.2023: Hochstufung von Hinzufügen auf Kaufen
Analyst: Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu PNE AG (ISIN:
DE000A0JBPG2) veröffentlicht. Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal bestätigt
seine BUY-Empfehlung und senkt das Kursziel von EUR 22,00 auf EUR 21,00.
Zusammenfassung:
Im Jahr 2023 steigerte PNE das EBITDA gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 13% auf
€39,9 Mio. und erreichte damit das obere Ende der Prognose (€30-40 Mio.).
Das EBITDA übertraf unsere Prognose um 15%, was vor allem auf einen besser
als erwarteten Beitrag des Segments Stromerzeugung zurückzuführen ist. PNE
baute seine Projektpipeline im Jahresvergleich um 61% auf 19,1 GW aus und
erweiterte sein Portfolio an eigenen Onshore-Windkraftanlagen um 51 MW auf
370 MW. In den nächsten 24 Monaten sollen Windparks mit einer
Gesamtkapazität von 281 MW hinzukommen, die sich derzeit im Bau befinden.
Damit wird das Portfolio voraussichtlich deutlich auf 651 MW erweitert. PNE
strebt für 2024 ein EBITDA von €40 Mio. bis €50 Mio. an. Eine aktualisierte
Sum-of-the-Parts-Bewertung führt zu einem Kursziel von €21 (vorher: €22).
Die Hauptgründe für das niedrigere Kursziel sind niedrigere Margenannahmen
im Servicegeschäft und eine höhere Nettoverschuldung im Segment
Stromerzeugung. Angesichts der starken Projektpipeline und der steigenden
Kapazität des Ökostromportfolios sehen wir PNE bei der Umsetzung ihrer
Wachstumsstrategie 'Scale up 2.0' auf dem richtigen Weg und bekräftigen
unsere Kaufempfehlung.
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on PNE AG
(ISIN: DE000A0JBPG2). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal reiterated his BUY
rating and decreased the price target from EUR 22.00 to EUR 21.00.
Abstract:
In 2023, PNE increased EBITDA 13% y/y to €39.9m and reached the upper end
of guidance (€30m - €40m). EBITDA topped our forecast by 15% due mainly to
a better than expected contribution from the Electricity Generation
segment. PNE expanded its project pipeline by 61% y/y to 19.1 GW and added
51 MW to its onshore wind own plant portfolio, which now has a capacity of
370 MW. Wind farms with a total capacity of 281 MW currently under
construction should be added over the next 24 months. The portfolio thus
looks set to expand significantly to 651 MW. PNE is guiding towards 2024
EBITDA of €40m - €50m. An updated sum-of-the-parts valuation yields a €21
price target (previously: €22). The main reasons for the lower price target
are lower margin assumptions in the service business and a higher net debt
position in the Electricity Generation segment. Given the strong project
pipeline and the rising green power portfolio capacity, we see PNE on track
with its growth strategy 'Scale up 2.0' and reiterate our Buy
recommendation.
Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des
Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29289.pdf
Contact for questions
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH: Deutsche Rohstoff AG: Buy
Original-Research: Deutsche Rohstoff AG - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to Deutsche Rohstoff AG
Company Name: Deutsche Rohstoff AG
ISIN: DE000A0XYG76
Reason for the research: Preliminary 2023 results
Recommendation: Buy
from: 18.03.2024
Target price: €46.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Simon Scholes, CFA
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Deutsche
Rohstoff AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY
rating and decreased the price target from EUR 47.00 to EUR 46.00.
Abstract:
2023 sales of €196.5m and EBITDA of €158.2m both came in towards the top
end of guidance. Meanwhile, 2023 production rose 32.4% to 12,700 barrels of
oil equivalent per day and was above company guidance of 12,000-12,500
boepd. Q4/23 production of 15,300 boepd (the highest in DRAG's history)
benefitted from significantly-above-type curve output at nine new wells in
the Niobrara formation in Wyoming, which came on stream last autumn. Net
CAPEX also set a new company record €145m in 2023, but thanks to the impact
of high net profitability on equity, net gearing remained constant at 42%.
Management is guiding towards investment spending of €108m for 2024, but it
is possible that this figure will rise if the oil price remains near the
current USD80. The mid-point of management EBITDA guidance of €130m-145m is
ca. €21m below the 2023 number. However, we note that 2023 EBITDA
benefitted from €17m in gains on the disposal of assets in Utah in December
and also that DRAG's current results are an order of magnitude higher than
the average EBITDA of €38m booked during 2019-21. Results from wells
drilled by DRAG in Wyoming since the company acquired its first acreage in
the state in 2020 have been very encouraging. Output from the 16 wells with
six month+ production history DRAG and its JV partner, Occidental Petroleum
(Oxy), have so far drilled into the Niobrara formation in Wyoming has
averaged 15% above type curve six months after the start of production.
DRAG/Oxy have sufficient acreage in Wyoming to drill over 200 wells. Over
90% of these potential wells are in the Niobrara formation. Since DRAG
announced the acquisition of its first acreage in Wyoming in July 2020, the
DRAG share has outperformed the S&P500 Energy Index by over 150%. DRAG's
increasingly impressive track record in Wyoming suggests that this
outperformance will continue. We maintain our Buy recommendation, but lower
the price target from €47.0 to €46.0 to reflect the ca. 30% decline in the
2024 US natural gas futures strip since our last note of 9 November (gas
accounted for ca. 10% of revenue at 9M/23 and ca. 10% of DRAG's gas
production is hedged).
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu Deutsche Rohstoff
AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76) veröffentlicht. Analyst Simon Scholes bestätigt
seine BUY-Empfehlung und senkt das Kursziel von EUR 47,00 auf EUR 46,00.
Zusammenfassung:
Der Umsatz für 2023 in Höhe von €196,5 Mio. und das EBITDA in Höhe von
€158,2 Mio. lagen beide am oberen Ende der Unternehmensguidance. Die
Produktion für das Jahr 2023 stieg um 32,4% auf 12.700 Barrel Öläquivalent
pro Tag (boepd) und lag damit über der Guidance des Unternehmens von
12.000-12.500 boepd. Die Q4/23-Produktion von 15.300 boepd (der höchste
Wert in der Geschichte der DRAG) profitierte von einer deutlich über der
Typkurve liegenden Produktion aus neun neuen Bohrungen in der
Niobrara-Formation in Wyoming, die im vergangenen Herbst in Betrieb
genommen wurden. Die Nettoinvestitionen (CAPEX) erreichten 2023 mit €145
Mio. ebenfalls einen neuen Unternehmensrekord, doch dank der hohen
Nettorentabilität blieb der Verschuldungsgrad mit 42% konstant. Das
Management geht für 2024 von Investitionsausgaben in Höhe von €108 Mio.
aus, wobei dieser Wert steigen könnte, wenn der Ölpreis in der Nähe der
aktuellen USD80-Marke bleibt. Der Mittelwert der EBITDA-Prognose des
Managements von €130 bis €145 Mio. liegt ca. €21 Mio. unter dem Wert für
2023. Wir weisen jedoch darauf hin, dass das EBITDA 2023 von €17 Mio. an
Gewinnen aus der Veräußerung von Vermögenswerten in Utah im Dezember
profitierte, und dass die aktuellen Ergebnisse der DRAG erheblich über dem
durchschnittlichen EBITDA von €38 Mio. liegen, das für 2019-21 verbucht
wurde. Die Ergebnisse der Bohrungen, die die DRAG in Wyoming niedergebracht
hat, seit das Unternehmen im Jahr 2020 seine ersten Flächen in diesem
Bundesstaat erworben hat, sind sehr ermutigend. Die Fördermenge der 16
Bohrungen mit einer Produktionshistorie von mehr als sechs Monaten, die die
DRAG und ihr Joint-Venture-Partner Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) bisher in der
Niobrara-Formation in Wyoming niedergebracht haben, liegt sechs Monate nach
Produktionsbeginn im Durchschnitt 15% über der Typkurve. DRAG/Oxy verfügen
in Wyoming über ausreichende Flächen, um über 200 Bohrungen durchzuführen.
Über 90 % dieser potenziellen Bohrungen befinden sich in der
Niobrara-Formation. Seit die DRAG im Juli 2020 den Erwerb ihrer ersten
Anbaufläche in Wyoming bekannt gab, hat die DRAG-Aktie den S&P500 Energy
Index um über 150 % übertroffen. Die zunehmend beeindruckende Erfolgsbilanz
der DRAG in Wyoming deutet darauf hin, dass sich diese Outperformance
fortsetzen wird. Wir behalten unsere Kaufempfehlung bei, senken jedoch das
Kursziel von €47,00 auf €46,00, um den Rückgang um ca. 30% der
US-Erdgas-Futures 2024 seit unserer letzten Studie vom 9. November zu
berücksichtigen (Gas machte ca. 10 % des Umsatzes in 9M/23 aus, und ca. 10
% der Gasproduktion der DRAG sind abgesichert).
Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des
Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29185.pdf
Contact for questions
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Multitude SE: BUY
Original-Research: Multitude SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Multitude SE
Company Name: Multitude SE
ISIN: FI4000106299
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 18.03.2024
Target price: 10.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
Strong Q4 figures // Bullish FY24 guidance confirmed; chg
End of last week, Multitude reported a very strong set of Q4 figures and
confirmed its FY24 EBIT guidance of € 67.5m. In detail:
Sales came in at € 63.1m, up 9% qoq and 15% yoy, slightly above our
estimates of € 60.4m (eNuW; restated to reflect directly attributable CAC),
driven by the strong growth of the net loan book (NAR) to € 636m (21% yoy;
including c. € 60m attributable to warehouse lending). Importantly, all
segments contributed significantly to yoy NAR growth. In FY23, Multitude
reached € 231m sales (9% yoy vs eNuW: 228m).
EBIT increased by 16% qoq to € 13.5m (40% yoy), above our estimates of €
12.2m (eNuW). With 45.5m on the FY base, the company achieved its FY23
guidance of € 45m. The solid bottom line is due to stable OPEX thanks to
efficiency measures (marketing, personnel) as well as topline growth.
Driven by NAR expansion and higher reference rates, financial costs
increased to c. € 8.5m (vs eNuW: € 6.6), resulting in an EBT of
approximately € 4.1m (vs eNuW: € 6.3m).
On the back of this strong set of numbers, management confirmed the FY24
EBIT guidance of € 67.5m (vs eNuW old: € 51m) expecting further topline
growth and scale effects. In our view, the guidance looks ambitious, but
not out of range given 1) the significantly increased loan book that should
fully materialize within FY24, 2) the strong growth momentum of CapitalBox
as well as the opportunities around the new segment wholesale banking that
already gained traction in FY23. That paired with the ongoing stable
performance of the “cashcow” of the Group (ferratum) and tight cost control
that the company already showed in FY23 give us additional confidence. Mind
you that the company reached its guidance for the 3rd consecutive year in
FY23.
As the stock looks still trading at a negative EV and a 3.4x PE´24, the
growing, highly profitable, resilient and dividend paying company continues
to look undebatably cheap.
Multitude remains in our NuWays Alpha List and we reiterate BUY with an
unchanged € 10 PT, based on our residual income model.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29173.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA: BUY
Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 18.03.2024
Target price: 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
RS feedback: New formats offering upside / chg.
Last week, we hosted a digital roadshow with BVB CFO Thomas Treß, which
underpinned our view that the club is set to benefit from several
structural changes going forward. The main takeaways:
Bundesliga broadcasting rights: In Q2, the German Football League (DFL) is
starting to market the media rights for the 4-year period starting with the
season 2025/26. While the current 4-year deal has a total value of € 4.4bn,
fears were arising that the next deal could decrease in volume after the
Italian and French Leagues had to cut back recently. However, the recent
abortion of the “No-Single-Buyer-Rule” is set to intensify the bidding
contest. Hence, we do not expect a decrease and conservatively forecast the
deal volume to remain on the same level as in the current period.
New UCL. Although UEFA did not disclose final details on the prize money
distribution for the new UCL format, earnings should increase by at least
20% compared to the current format given success in the competition. Yet,
as the share of performance-based premiums will increase by 7.5pp to 37.5%,
the delta is seen to increase, depending on a teams progresses in the
tournament. Moreover, the CWC (click here for more detail) is seen to
provide a liquidity boost in 2025, which is not yet reflected in our model
as no detailed information were released yet by FIFA.
Sponsorship upside. While TV marketing or transfer sales are subject to a
certain volatility based on sporting success and talent development, sales
in the sponsoring segment are seen to deliver stable growth going forward.
Both, the expiry of the Evonik and 1&1 contracts next year as well as the
CWC and the associated new sponsorship opportunities in the US are seen to
provide upside in the coming years, in our view.
Besides that, BVB reached the quarterfinals of the UCL after beating
Eindhoven last week. As this resulted in € 10.6m additional premium
payments, BVB consequently lifted its net profit guidance range by € 10m,
which we continue to consider as conservative, given the strong H1. BVB
will now face Atletico Madrid in the quarterfinals. While we rate this as a
50/50 fixture, we conservatively do not model the € 12.5m in premiums BVB
would receive if advancing to the semifinals.
BVB shares continue to trade on attractive levels of 0.9x EV/Sales,
significantly below the peer average of 3.9x. The stock hence remains a BUY
with an unchanged PT of € 5.50 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29175.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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NuWays AG: INDUS Holding AG: BUY
Original-Research: INDUS Holding AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to INDUS Holding AG
Company Name: INDUS Holding AG
ISIN: DE0006200108
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 15.03.2024
Target price: 36.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Bolt-on acquisitions into global megatrends; chg.
Topic: INDUS successfully completed the share repurchase program announced
on February 21st. Further, the German conglomerate expanded their portfolio
in the field of infrastructure networks and AI-based industrial automation.
Share buyback at an attractive price: During the period from February 22nd
to March 1st, INDUS conducted a public buyback for 1.1m shares at a price
of € 23 per share, which are now held as treasury shares. The volume
amounts to € 25.3m in aggregate or approximately 4.09% of the company’s
share capital. At the current trading price INDUS offers an attractive
return on investment capital, thus we view the buyback as a good capital
allocation decision.
Investment into Germany’s future infrastructure: INDUS announced the
successful acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Hauff-Technik GRIDCOM
(sales: € 21m). By that, they are strengthening the existing portfolio in
the field of infrastructure networks with the subsidiaries Weigand Bau GmbH
and Turmbau Steffens & Nölle GmbH. Hauff-Technik GRIDCOM produces passive
components for the fiberoptic infrastructure. INDUS became already in 1986
the sole shareholder of Hauff-Technik GmbH & Co. KG, which acquired 50% of
Hauff-Technik GRIDCOM in 2016. While the purchase price was not disclosed,
we would expect it to be in the mid single-digit €m range for the 50%
stake.
Investment in AI-based industrial automation: INDUS acquired Gestalt
Robotics GmbH, a specialist in the field of AI-based automation for
industrial applications (sales: € 5m). We expect the acquisition price to
be in the low to mid single-digit €m range. By acquiring Gestalt Robotics,
INDUS is expanding its engineering segment and lays the foundation to
profit from the fast growing AI market.
Attractive cashflow generation: INDUS delivered a preliminary FY23 FCF
north of € 190m, materially improving yoy (FY22: € 102m) and exceeding the
management target of € 100m, thanks to further noticeable working capital
normalizations. Supported by the divestment of the loss-making
automotive-related business in FY23, we expect INDUS to deliver FCF of €
100m in a normalized year, making it a cash cow with an attractive
normalized FCF-Yield of c. 9%.
INDUS remains attractively priced trading at only 4.3x EV/EBITDA 2024e,
which is 28% below its 10y historical average. Hence, we reiterate BUY with
an unchanged PT of € 36 based on FCFY 2024e.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29165.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: ASMALLWORLD AG: BUY
Original-Research: ASMALLWORLD AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to ASMALLWORLD AG
Company Name: ASMALLWORLD AG
ISIN: CH0404880129
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 15.03.2024
Target price: 4.30
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
FY'23 in line, growth investments to burden profitability; chg.
Topic: Yesterday, ASW released FY'23 results, in line on top line and
slightly below estimate and guidance on EBITDA level. Moreover, the
announcement of an 'investment year' should burden FY'24e profitability
temporarily in return for member growth. In detail:
Sales came in at CHF 21.2m, +15% yoy (eNuW: CHF 21.1m; guidance: CHF
20-22m) driven by strong growth in both segments: Subscriptions grew by 13%
yoy to CHF 14.8m while Services grew by 20% yoy to CHF 6.5m, thanks member
growth by 6.4% to 70.2k coupled with ARPU growth of 6% yoy.
EBITDA came in slightly lower-than-expected at CHF 2.1m (down 16% yoy;
eNuW: CHF 2.3m; guidance: CHF 2.2 - 2.4m) because the product mix shifted
towards the Emirates Skywards program and away from the Lufthansa Miles and
More program, leading to higher costs for member privileges of CHF 13.5m
(+26% yoy).
Net income however rose by 6% yoy to CHF 1.53m due to the first time
collection of GHA's dividend of CHF 0.3m, lifting the financial result
accordingly from CHF -0.2m in FY'22 to CHF 0.1m, while EPS is diluted by
the increased no. of shares following the recent capital increase.
Growth investments to burden profitability in the near-term: With last
year's acquisition of JetBeds.com, ASW now offers the value luxury travel
service value chain for its customers. Hence, the next logical step is to
increase the customer base of the social network (see p. 2), which should
be achieved by 1) expanding marketing efforts and 2) lowering the entry
threshold with a 'freemium' version, which is currently under evaluation.
Both has a short-term negative effect on profitability, but should ensure
the basis for future growth. Thereafter, the strong operating leverage of
ASW's business should let profitability rise again in FY'25e (eNuW: 11% vs.
4.5% in FY'24e). Moreover, new hires of tech-personnel should also burden
profitability.
New guidance reflects growth investments: ASW guides for CHF 23-25m in
sales (eNuW: CHF 24.4m) and an increased member base of 73 - 74k (eNuW:
73.7k), but a decline in EBITDA to CHF 1 - 1.2m (eNuW: CHF 1.1m; old: CHF
3.2m) due the investments mentioned above.
At current levels, ASW stock seems to price in the weak profitability for
FY'24e, but the market seems to underestimate the operating leverage the
business provides after this transition year. Hence, we reiterate our BUY
recommendation, but reduce our PT to CHF 4.30 (old: CHF 4.90), as we
decrease our bottom-line estimates and roll over our DCF model.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29167.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: UBM Development AG: BUY
Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to UBM Development AG
Company Name: UBM Development AG
ISIN: AT0000815402
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 15.03.2024
Target price: 28.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY ’23 prelims: EBT below est. due to higher devaluation / chg.
UBM released preliminary FY ’23 figures, which came in below our estimates
following higher than anticipated devaluations of the company’s development
as well as standing asset portfolio. Management now expects an EBT loss of
€ 39m (vs eNuW of € -23.6m vs eCons € -21.4m). Final FY figures will be
released on April 11th.
Overall, UBM had to write down € 70m throughout 2023, which should have
been divided equally into project and standing asset revaluations. The main
reason for this is seen to be the ongoing weakness of the real estate
market, with only slight gradual increases in transaction volumes and ever
more larger players filing for bankruptcy (e.g. Signa). Although management
indicated that technical pressure for further devaluations in 2024e should
be limited, we conservatively estimate a slight devaluation of c. 1%.
Despite the devaluation and the redemption of its hybrid bond, UBM
continues to provide sound balance
sheet metrics with a cash position of € 152m and an equity ratio which
remains in the target corridor
of 30-35%. Importantly, the company has no major maturities until November
2025 (€ 120m corporate
bond), which marks a major competitive advantage as it provides management
with sufficient headroom
until the market regains traction.
On another positive note, the company was able to divest its 33.5% share of
Palais Hansen to Wiener Städtische in Q4. Given a fair value of € 100m, a
7% discount to book value and an LTV of 45% this should have resulted in
net cash inflows of c. € 17m (eNuW). Moreover, a 25% in the Vienna-based
project “Central Hub”, a mix between office and light industrial, was
acquired. The 9,800m sqm project is set to be completed in Q1 ’25.
Overall and despite the muted FY 2023 preliminary figures, we continue to
like UBM as we regard the company as well equipped to cope with the current
macroeconomic headwinds, as earnings from the € 2.3bn pipeline should
protect profitability going forward (eNuW: 10-15% developer margin).
Moreover, with 75% of the pipeline being planned in hybrid-timber
construction, the company is in a perfect position to benefit from the
increasing pressure for investors to comply with the EU taxonomy. Hence,
demand for projects should further increase going forward.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation with a new PT of € 28.00 based on DDM.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29169.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
GBC AG: Advanced Blockchain AG: Buy
Original-Research: Advanced Blockchain AG - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to Advanced Blockchain AG
Company Name: Advanced Blockchain AG
ISIN: DE000A0M93V6
Reason for the research: Management interview
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: 11.00 EUR
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2024
Last rating change:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Julien Desrosiers
'Our top 10 investments alone amassed a value of 57.5 million euros by the
end of 2023 - notably exceeding our market capitalization.'
In this interview, GBC speaks with Simon Telian, the CEO of Advanced
Blockchain AG. Since our last GBC interview in September 2023, the market
capitalization has more than doubled. Based on our last valuation, we
remain optimistic that there is further potential for growth. We expect to
adjust our valuation with the publication of the 2023 annual report.
GBC AG: Can you briefly introduce Advanced Blockchain AG?
Simon Telian: Advanced Blockchain AG is the first and only publicly traded
company on the German stock market specializing in decentralized blockchain
technologies. We are a key player in the blockchain industry, focusing on
research, incubation, and investments - both equity and tokens - in
disruptive technologies in the blockchain sector. Our current portfolio
includes more than 30 blockchain companies or projects. Alone, our top 10
investments had a value of 57.5 million euros by the end of 2023 -
significantly more than our market capitalization. Our primary focus is on
incubating and investing in promising projects in the decentralized finance
sector, also known as 'DeFi,' which is currently the fastest-growing area
in the blockchain world. This enables users to access financial products
frictionlessly, without the intermediation of centralized institutions such
as traditional banks. Other key focus areas include applications and
companies in the Economy of Things, where connected devices not only
communicate with each other but also create economic value for the user.
The portfolio is rounded out by investments in companies that enable
frictionless communication between different blockchain technology
protocols, also known as Cross-Chain Interoperability. Additionally,
Advanced Blockchain is not only an early-stage investor but also a leading
venture builder, supporting its investments with an extensive network of
software developers and a strong focus on research. In historical context,
Advanced Blockchain has been informing major German companies about the
various applications of blockchain technology since 2018, thus building a
broad network even in the traditional corporate environment. Since 2020,
Advanced Blockchain has been intensively involved in incubation,
investments, and building technical expertise in research to create an
extremely successful and valuable portfolio.
GBC AG: How does your company identify and evaluate potential investments,
and what criteria are decisive?
Simon Telian: The basis of the investment process is always a comprehensive
analysis of the application and implementation potential of the
investments. In addition, the quality of the founding team and the economic
and financial potential are crucial for creating value for the company. Our
extensive and long-standing experience in blockchain technology
significantly supports the decision-making process. Through ABX Analytics,
we will increasingly automate this process and offer it to external
customers or investors. Our broad network is certainly the decisive factor
in identifying interesting investment opportunities early on; numerous
opportunities have been identified in the past in this way. We rely on the
generated value from synergies with other investors in our network.
Co-investments with our partners are common, both in the pure equity
investment area and in our incubation projects.
GBC AG: What specific strategies have led to the 45% increase in the ten
largest portfolio values?
Simon Telian: The fundamental principles of our investment strategy remain
unchanged. However, the outstanding increase is due to several factors
affecting both our portfolio companies and the overall market. The central
factor is certainly the increasing acceptance of cryptocurrencies and
blockchain technology in society. The acceptance of blockchain ETF funds by
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made investing in
cryptocurrencies increasingly socially acceptable. Particularly noteworthy
is the remarkable increase in inflows into BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin
Trust (IBIT), which recorded a new daily record of $2.2 billion last month.
In addition, the price of Bitcoin reached its all-time high, surpassing the
$69,000 mark, which brings Bitcoin into the price discovery phase. All
these developments show how the market has evolved positively in recent
months. This environment leads to growing interest in many of our key
portfolio companies, such as Composable. The company develops bridge
solutions targeting various ecosystems such as Ethereum, Cosmos, and
Polkadot, as well as future blockchain networks. The interest in this
drives the increase in value significantly. It is important to highlight
the central problem of current blockchain technology, namely the lack of
interoperability, which makes the transfer of digital assets between
different ecosystems impossible. Composable has taken on the challenge of
developing innovations to overcome this challenge and has made considerable
progress. This is just one example; each of our portfolio companies is
driving innovations in a key area of the industry, such as peaq in the
Economy of Things sector, and Polymer in the development of modular
blockchains.
GBC AG: How has the currently positive momentum in the crypto market
influenced the valuation of your portfolio?
Simon Telian: Of course, the positive market momentum has played an
important role in the appreciation of our portfolio. For example, the
Bitcoin price was slightly above $27,100 at the time of the initial
valuation in late May 2023, and at the end of December 2023, it was at
$42,500. However, the change in market dynamics alone is not sufficient. If
these portfolio companies were not innovative and did not develop core
technologies that are perceived as remarkable by the market, we would not
have seen such a strong increase. Nevertheless, these two aspects are
interconnected.
GBC AG: Can you explain the significance of the upcoming Bitcoin halving
for the overall market sentiment?
Simon Telian: Bitcoin halving involves reducing the rate at which new
bitcoins are created. With a finite number of bitcoins to be created at
most, Bitcoin halving reduces the supply. With demand levels remaining
constant, this can lead to a price increase. Many investors and speculators
view halving as a key catalyst for positive price movements. Positive price
developments often manifest early, as investors position themselves ahead
of time. Media also play an important role in attracting attention,
especially now with the interest of renowned asset managers like BlackRock
and Fidelity in the crypto industry. Overall, I expect halving to
contribute positively to market sentiment, along with the upcoming Ethereum
spot ETF. It is expected that both events will lead to further significant
inflows into the digital asset market.
GBC AG: What is Advanced Blockchain AG's vision for the future of Web 3.0?
Simon Telian: Our vision is to become an increasingly global player in the
blockchain field. By investing in and incubating innovative companies and
providing young entrepreneurs with the opportunity to create technology for
the decentralized web (Web 3.0). This also includes increased involvement
in software development. We have demonstrated our competencies through our
previous incubation projects, using this key expertise as a significant
value driver for the next phase of the company's development.
GBC AG: Where do you see Advanced Blockchain AG in the next five years, and
what strategic goals are you setting?
Simon Telian: In the coming years, Advanced Blockchain will continue to
focus on early-stage startup investments with a sharpened and successfully
proven investment strategy. As mentioned earlier, our goal is to become a
leading global player with a presence in emerging blockchain markets to
access promising new investment opportunities. Our incubation business will
increasingly focus on building innovative software companies with a
recurring revenue model to further diversify our business. Additionally, we
see great value in collaborating with other venture builders to establish
joint ventures in emerging blockchain markets.
GBC AG: Thank you for the interview.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29147.pdf
Contact for questions
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
+++++++++++++++
Completion Date (Time): 13.03.2024. 16:00
First Distribution Date (Time): 14.03.2024. 09:00
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: MAX Automation SE: BUY
Original-Research: MAX Automation SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to MAX Automation SE
Company Name: MAX Automation SE
ISIN: DE000A2DA588
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 13.03.2024
Target price: 8.20
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Konstantin Völk
Excellent growth and profitability, soft order intake; chg.
Topic: MAX released strong FY23 results, with sales and EBITDA in line with
expectations and the company’s guidance. The sales process of the
subsidiary MA micro, which is now recognized as discontinued operations, is
still ongoing.
FY23 sales (incl. MA micro) rose by 8.3% to € 443m (eNuW: € 444m), in line
with the guidance range of € 410-470m due to a strong contribution from
bdtronic (+59% yoy), offsetting the weaker Vecoplan, NSM + Jücker and MA
micro. Q4 sales grew slightly by 3.2% yoy to € 117m (eNuW: € 117m). FY23
EBITDA (incl. MA micro) came in at € 43.2m (eNuW: € 43.9m) a 28% increase
yoy, hitting the upper end of the guidance range of € 38-44m. This implies
a 9.8% margin, up 1.5pp yoy due to normalized material prices and strong
performance of bdtronic. Q4 EBITDA increased 155% yoy to € 6.2m (eNuW: €
6.9m) with a margin of 5.3% (+ 3.2pp yoy) due to a weak Q4 in FY22.
Group order intake from continued operations decreased by 16% to € 341m,
leading to an order backlog of € 206m (-21% yoy), impacted from investment
reluctance due to the ongoing economic uncertainty and higher interest
costs. Mind you, FY22 benefited from COVID-19 catch-up effects and FY23
order intake and backlog are still on a historical high level.
Outlook for FY24e for continuing operations: MAX guides for sales of €
390-450m, in line with eNuW (€ 425m), carried by a € 206m group backlog and
a healthy order pipeline. FY24e EBITDA should come in between € 31-38m
(eNuW: € 32.7m). Despite the lower order backlog, the guidance seems to be
in reach due to the postponement of some larger orders from Q4 FY23 into
FY24e as well as improving supply chains and material prices.
bdtronic showed a dynamic top- and bottom-line development (see page two),
as a result of the fulfillment of the high order backlog and continued
strong demand for dispensing and impregnation. Sales increased 59% yoy to €
104m (eNuW: € 94.7m) and EBITDA rose by 58% with a flat development in
margins at 14%, due to large investments into growth (e.g. personell, PPE).
Order intake rose by 11% yoy to a new record high of € 104m, flagging the
technological leadership and ongoing structural trends such as
electrification of the automotive industry. Order intake in Q4 came in
rather weak at € 11m compared to € 29m in Q4 FY22, due to the postponement
of a major order to FY24e.
We expect bdtronic to deliver another year of double-digit growth in FY24e
(eNuW: 12%).
Vecoplan delivered low-single-digit growth in sales and EBITDA, while
margins remained roughly unchanged at 11.5% (FY22: 11.3%). Order intake
fell by 15.6% yoy to € 145m, due to investment reluctance in Europe and US
and the postponement of orders. However, the highly profitable service
business, which accounts for c. 1/3 of sales, recorded significant growth
during FY23.
In addition to the improving operating performance, a successful divestment
of the subsidiary MA micro (company news 08.09.2023) should be a notable
share price catalyst. This would reveal, that the value of the “parts”
clearly exceeds the current Enterprise Value of the MAX Automation group,
in our view.
We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged € 8.20 PT based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29133.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
GBC AG: Aspermont Ltd.: Buy
Original-Research: Aspermont Ltd. - from GBC AG
Classification of GBC AG to Aspermont Ltd.
Company Name: Aspermont Ltd.
ISIN: AU000000ASP3
Reason for the research: Research Report (Anno)
Recommendation: Buy
Target price: 0,07 AUD
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2024
Last rating change:
Analyst: Julien Desrosiers, Matthias Greiffenberger
Continued Growth. 2023 a consolidation year. 2024e back to double digit
growth.
Single digit growth. The company continues its growth with a 3% increase in
revenue, in line with management guidance for FY2023.
Blue Horseshoe investment write off. The decision to write off the Blue
Horseshoe investment was made due to its lack of short-term profitability.
However, the company retains the intellectual property and remains open to
revisiting the venture should industry conditions improve.
Capital efficiency. The company has improved its capital efficiency by
divesting or upgrading low-margin products and events in favor of solutions
that promise higher growth and profitability.
Normalized EBITDA remains healthy, from $2.8m to $1.7m while the normalized
NPAT grew from $0.6m to $0.8m, indicating brighter future ahead.
New playgrounds. The Company has branded their marketing services branch
into a new entity called Nexus. The Company has created two sold out live
events in the past months. The company has signed an agreement with Rick
Rule, a highly prominent in the mining sector investment realm.
Management and Key operators hiring. The company hired a new Chief
Marketing officer, Group head of content and group head of research,
bringing onboard industry wide leading executives.
Focus on long term strategy. FY2024 priority is to return to double digit
growth.
Adjusted Price Target: Based on our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, we
have adjusted our share price target to 0.07 AUD / 0.04 EUR (previously:
0.10 AUD / 0.07 EUR), reflecting our current valuation assessment.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29121.pdf
Contact for questions
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
+++++++++++++++
Date and time of completion of this research: 11.03.2024 15:00
Date and time of first distribution: 12.03.2024 12:00
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
NuWays AG: Marley Spoon Group SE: BUY
Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Marley Spoon Group SE
Company Name: Marley Spoon Group SE
ISIN: LU2380748603
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 12.03.2024
Target price: 8.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Mark Schüssler
HelloFresh’s weak outlook reflected MSG's market est.
Topic: Last Friday, Marley Spoon's (MSG) close peer HelloFresh (HFG)
released a weaker-than-expected outlook for FY24 and withdrew its FY25
(mid-term) targets on the back of particularly challenging end markets,
triggering a 40-50% sell-off of the stock. Importantly, the weak end market
sentiment should be fully reflected in our and market expectations for MSG.
What happened in detail: HFG had issued its midterm (FY25) targets of €
10bn in revenue and € 1bn in operating earnings during a time in which
consumer sentiment generally and the meal kit market particularly were
still upbeat with strong growth, apparently failing to temper consensus'
expectations regarding the Group’s ability to deliver on these goals in the
presently challenging macroeconomic environment. As a result, withdrawing
the midterm targets altogether along with a muted FY24 guidance of €
7.75-8.20bn in revenue (2-8% yoy) and adj. EBITDA of € 350-400m (between
-11% and -22% yoy) caught investors flat-footed. Investing heavily in
performance marketing and brand maintenance, the company cited higher
customer acquisition costs as the main driver for lower prospective adj.
EBITDA along with increased expenses for production capacity and ramp-up of
two newly added fulfilment centres.
What this means for MSG and our estimates: In our view, this is no
incremental negative news for Marley Spoon as our current top and bottom
line estimates already reflect a challenging end market environment. To a
considerable extent, the negative expectations regarding the meal kit
market in FY24 have already been priced in MSG’s stock after the company
posted a revenue decline of -18% in FY23, leading investors to adjust their
forward expectations accordingly.
We currently expect MSG’s organic sales to grow by 5.2% – and thus at the
midpoint of HFG’s guided FY24 revenue growth – to reach € 346m, aided by a
lower revenue base and a rectified voucher strategy which has already
improved marketing efficiency and early cohort retention rates since Q4’23
and should likely help to lift subscriber quality, order frequency as well
as basket size, going forward. In line with HFG’s statement regarding the
beginning recovery of the meal kit market, active subscribers are seen to
grow by 3% yoy to 195k after having dropped by 24% from 249k in FY22 to
189k in FY23.
Marley Spoon Group remains attractively priced trading at only 0.32x
EV/Sales 2024e, leading us to reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT
of € 8.00 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29111.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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NuWays AG: q.beyond AG: BUY
Original-Research: q.beyond AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to q.beyond AG
Company Name: q.beyond AG
ISIN: DE0005137004
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 12.03.2024
Target price: 1.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY prelims without surprises + bullish outlook // chg.
Implied Q4 sales increased by 9% yoy to € 50.8m (eNuW: € 47.6m, eCons: €
47.4m). Growth was predominantly driven by the continued recovery of the
SAP segment (21% of sales), where revenues increased strongly by 28% yoy to
€ 10.8m (eNuW: € 8.9m), following several key customer wins as well as a
pick-up of the S/4HANA transformation. The Cloud & IoT segment (79% of
sales) showed yet another quarter with muted growth of 4.9% yoy to € 40.1m
(eNuW: 2.7% organic growth), although exceeding our estimate of € 38.7m.
Overall, FY ’23 sales increased 9.4% yoy to € 189m (eNuW & eCons: € 186m).
50% of the growth is attributable to the productive-data acquisition.
Q4 EBITDA came in at € 5.8m (eNuW & eCons: € 5.2m), implying an 11.5%
margin and a 358% yoy increase. However, the strong increase is mainly due
to a decision of the tax authorities in favor of q.beyond, which had a
positive effect of € 8.6m (eNuW: € 3.2m net cash effect in ‘24). On the
other hand, the company built up provisions amounting to € 5.3m mainly
related to the ongoing business transformation. Hence, while FY reported
EBITDA came in at € 5.7m, the operating EBITDA amounted to € 2.4m.
Notably, the company generated FCF of € 1.7m (eNuW: €1.4m, eCons: € 0.2m),
thus reaching breakeven one year ahead of target. With now € 37.6m of net
cash, CEO Rixen indicated in yesterday’s CC that M&A might already be on
the table for late 2024. Here, one possibility could be to partner up with
a company from a respective industry in order to access new verticals (see
logineer). Mind you, future M&A is not reflected in our model, thus
providing a certain upside to our estimates.
Bullish FY ’24 guidance. With the release, management also provided a 2024
outlook, targeting sales of € 192-198m (eNuW new: € 197m, eCons: € 196m)
and an EBITDA of € 8-10m (eNuW new: € 8.1m, eCons: € 7.4m). While 3% sales
growth at mid-point should be achievable, the EBITDA guidance appears quite
ambitious, as it implies an incremental margin of 125% at mid-point with
respect to the operating EBITDA. Yet, with our new estimates we expect the
company to achieve the lower end of the guided range due to (1) an
increased off- and near-shoring ratio, (2) an increased consulting and
development ratio as well as the (3) ongoing streamlining of processes in
connection with one-q.beyond (i.e. eliminate duplicate structures, optimize
order-to-cash).
New segmentation: From 2024 onwards, q.beyond will change its segment
reporting, as the new segments “Managed Services” and “Consulting” will
replace the current segmentation (“Cloud & IoT” and “SAP”). 'Managed
Services' will comprise the q.beyond data centres in Hamburg and Ulm as
well as logineer while 'Consulting' will comprises the former SAP segment
as well as the Microsoft services, ITsecurity, software development,
data-intelligence and cloud consulting. A more detailed overview is
provided below.
Remains a BUY with an unchanged PT of € 1.00 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29113.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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NuWays AG: Rubean AG: BUY
Original-Research: Rubean AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Rubean AG
Company Name: Rubean AG
ISIN: DE0005120802
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 12.03.2024
Target price: 9.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
Conservative FY24 guidance, but ambitious mid-term vision
Topic: Yesterday, Rubean announced a rather conservative topline guidance
for FY24 as well as an ambitious mid-term vision with regards to sales,
EBIT and app user. In detail:
Sales to more than double in FY24. Rubean is expecting to grow its sales by
135% at mid-point to € 2.2-2.5m in FY24. On the back of the recently
announced cooperations paired further likely customer wins, we consider
this guidance as rather conservative, still anticipating € 3.0m sales
(eNuW). As it is difficult to precisely forecast the exponential growth
trajectory, management seems to play it safe.
40+% EBIT margin by FY27. For FY27, Rubean is aiming for € 10+m in sales,
implying a 78% CAGR 2023-27e, which is even above our estimates of € 9.0m.
As we see Rubean at the forefront of the rapidly growing market for mobile
payment acceptance systems that is just at the beginning, the vision looks
reasonable. Thanks to scale effects of the highly scalable business model,
management is guiding for 40+% EBIT margin in FY27, which is in line with
our estimates (eNuW: 41%).
1m app user until 2025. Further, management is expecting 1m app user until
2025 after having reported 25k in FY23. While we think that this figure is
a bit too ambitious (eNuW: 350k, only reflecting the user potential of
existing contracts), it is not completely out of reach, as a single major
contract could completely change the picture.
Following the recent series of important strategic partnerships within a
short period of time (i.e. Global Payments, Correos, emerchantpay), Rubean
is showing once again very clearly that its leading softPOS product is
ready and that the roll-out is in full swing. Furthermore, many of the
initial pilot projects of earlier won customers went into regular
operations, generating revenues. Among these customers are national postal
services such as GLS in Spain, DPD, Express One or Dodo in Eastern Europe
but also large banks such as BBVA in Spain and Global Payments Europe. In
our view, more positive newsflow from further new partnerships within FY24
that should further ramp-up sales and EBIT going forward, is likely,
helping to beat the guidance.
BUY with an unchanged PT of € 9.00, based on our DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29115.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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NuWays AG: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA: BUY
Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 11.03.2024
Target price: 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Qualification for FIFA CWC 25 provides earnings upside for BVB
Following RB Leipzig´s UEFA Champions League (UCL) exit against Real Madrid
last week Borussia Dortmund is now officially qualified for FIFA Club World
Cup 2025.
The recently founded FIFA Club World Cup (CWC), which will be held in a
four-year rhythm, will take place from June to July 2025 in the USA. 32
teams will take part in the competition – selected among the winners of
continental club competitions. FIFA has recently announced the details for
qualification criteria – ensuring UEFA the participation of 12 teams from
the European confederation. Moreover, FIFA has allowed European
participants according to UEFA Champions League coefficient ranking,
whereas participants from other continental confederations will be selected
according to a FIFA ranking. UEFA has guaranteed automatic qualification to
the tournament for the last three UCL Winners plus the upcoming 2024 UCL
champion. The remaining eight teams are selected according to a coefficient
based on the 4- year performance in the UCL. Currently, Borussia is granted
the 6th place in the UEFA ranking (excluding UCL winners automatically
qualified).
While FIFA did not yet release official details on the prize money and
corresponding distribution, several media outlets like Italian “Gazzetta
dello Sport” indicated that total price money will be around € 2.5bn, which
would imply an average payment of € 78m per participant. However, since we
have no official figures yet, we do not include a possible financial impact
of the CWC qualification in our model.
Yet, in addition to the direct revenue boost, the format looks set to
increase the club’s general visibility outside of Germany and especially in
the important US market, where BVB recently opened its first permanent
office in North America. Hence, this should provide upside potential for
the club’s merchandise and sponsoring revenues. Moreover, BVB and Bayern
Munich participating in the CWC should also improve the negotiation power
of the German Football League (DFL) regarding the foreign Media
distribution rights of the Bundesliga, which would ultimately benefit BVB’s
TV Marketing revenues.
Against this backdrop as well as the strong operating performance in H1, we
reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 5.50 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29103.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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NuWays AG: Netfonds AG: BUY
Original-Research: Netfonds AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Netfonds AG
Company Name: Netfonds AG
ISIN: DE000A1MME74
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 11.03.2024
Target price: 73.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
Netfonds beat expectations // Strong FY23 prelims; chg
Netfonds reported strong FY23 prelims beating our expectations. Further,
the company provided a new guidance for FY24 that remained rather vague for
the moment. In detail:
Gross sales came in at € 197m (+12% yoy), clearly above our estimate of €
191m. Key driver were the business areas Wholesale and Regulatory &
Technology business both showing yoy growth rates north of 10% mainly
fuelled by AuA that grew by 11% to € 23.8bn (vs eNuW: € 23.2bn). Thanks to
scale effects, material expenses should have declined relatively to sales
to 80.4% (vs 80.9% in FY22) resulting in net sales of € 37.0m (3% yoy vs
eNuW: € 36.1m).
EBITDA stood at € 6.2m (-28% yoy, 85% qoq), also above estimates of € 5.7m,
mainly the result of the sound topline development compensating for higher
than anticipated OPEX of € 30.8m (4% yoy vs eNuW: € 30.4m). EBT came in at
€ 2.2m (9% yoy vs eNuW: € 1.7m) as a result of € 4.1m D&A and a financial
result of € 0.1m.
Overall, Q4 figures marked a strong finish of a sound FY23. On the back of
€ 23.8 bn AuC in FY23 as a starting point into FY24, paired with stock
markets at all-time highs after two months, topline should continue to grow
in FY24, even without new AuA inflows that we consider as very likely
(eNuW: 8% to € 25.6bn). Even better, profitable AuM from the wealth
management should grow even more dynamically (eNuW: 25% to € 4bn).
Further, the finfire platform is seen to fuel consolidation of the
insurance broker market that is in contrary to the investment adviser
market, still highly fragmented. Thanks to finfire, the selling and
managing of insurance products is much easier unlocking huge cross-selling
potentials, as the already onboarded investment adviser can additionally
offer a wide range of insurance products to its customers. Netfonds
proprietary, 360° finfire platform hence remains the key mid- to long term
growth and scalability driver.
In order to reflect the strong FY23 figures, the bright market environment
and the enormous (cross-selling) potential arising from finfire, we now
expect for FY24 € 45m net sales and an € 12.5m EBITDA, in line with
management guidance of net sales “well above € 40m” and “strong increase in
EBITDA”.
BUY with a new PT of € 73.00 (old: € 71.00), based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29105.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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NuWays AG: elumeo SE: BUY
Original-Research: elumeo SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to elumeo SE
Company Name: elumeo SE
ISIN: DE000A11Q059
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 11.03.2024
Target price: 5.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Mark Schüssler
Growth avenues lead the way in 2024 and beyond
elumeo looks set to benefit from two growth initiatives in particular which
should help both top and bottom line performance going forward:
Growth avenue #1: juwelo. We currently expect much of H1'24e to be burdened
by the continued muted consumer sentiment witnessed over the last quarters,
estimating c. € 22m (eNuW) in sales for the first half of the year (flat
yoy). While customer activity should be relatively unaffected overall for
elumeo's core platform juwelo, the mix of both products and customers will
likely reflect macroeconomic headwinds. However, whereas competitors like
Wempe overwhelmingly offer higher-priced jewelry, leading customers to
either stay or churn altogether, elumeo can prevent churn on its platform
by offering both higher- and lower-priced items and allowing customers to
simply subsititute one for the other. Thus, the average sales price is seen
to decline compared to the prior reporting period (eNuW: € 72), but the
number of items sold should steadily rise over the year to c. 645k (+2%
yoy, eNuW) as (1) the continued development of an interactive mobile
jewelry shopping app (eNuW: one-digit million figure or between c. 2-13% of
FY'23e revenue) is expected to contribute perceptibly to FY total revenue
by H2'24 and (2) AI translated automated shopping shows likely help reduce
operating costs and boost video shopping content globally, the testing of
which is still ongoing but already promising.
Growth avenue #2: jooli. The platform was launched in the Indian market to
capitalize on both lower customer acquisition costs and a trove of data
needed to enhance the app's algorithm and features such as livestream
shopping (clips of ~20 seconds) of not only jewelry but various lifestyle
products. While first KPIs like order volume are promising, jooli's
development is financed out of the company's own resources and conducted
such that customer acqusition is profitable from the beginning, causing a
slower but financially healthier ramp up. Therefore, we currently do not
expect material top or bottom line contributions from jooli before 2026e
(see also our update from February 2nd). However, as the company prepares
jooli for a successful roll-out in its European markets in the mid-term,
elumeo's core platform juwelo looks set to benefit from an eventual
recovery of the jewelry and overall e-commerce market with sales prices and
items sold likely to recover.
We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT of € 5.00 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29107.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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NuWays AG: MLP SE: BUY
Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Company Name: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 08.03.2024
Target price: EUR 11.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Comeback of RE and performance fees around the corner; chg.
Topic: MLP released FY'23 preliminary results and suprised positively with
Q4's better than expected real
estate business. MLP also looks set to record performance fees in Q1 for
the first time since 2021.
Q4 sales in line with estimates: Sales rose by 5% yoy to € 289m (eNuW: €
294m) with a strong impact from Old-Age Provision (€ 90m, 31% of sales;
eNuW: € 102m), but also strong growth from Interest Income (€ 20.3m, +133%
yoy; eNuW: € 19.6m), Non-Life Insurance (€ 39m, +22% yoy; eNuW: € 42m) as
well as Wealth Management (€ 80m, +4% yoy; eNuW: € 91m). Surprisingly, the
negative trend in Real Estate could be stopped, as Q4 RE sales came in much
better than expected at € 26.2m, up 19% yoy (eNuW: € 5.1m), thanks to both
Brokerage (€ 11.1m, +62.4% yoy; eNuW: € 3.5m) and Development (€ 15m; flat
yoy; eNuW: € 1.6m).
Q4 EBIT in line with previously released PW: The positive impact from the
interest result (€ 12.8m; +64% yoy; eNuW: € 13.5m) led to an overall Q4
EBIT of € 25.4m, up 9% yoy, while it was also burdened by a one-off
goodwill impairment on a real estate subsidiary of € 4m.
FY'24e guidance conservative: The company guides for an EBIT range of €
75-85m (eNuW: € 89m; eCons: € 88m) for FY'24e, based on positive outlooks
in Wealth as well as Life & Health. Upside could emerge from 1) a potential
rebound in Real Estate (company guides 'very positively'), which was
already visible during Q4'23, and 2) highly profitable performance fees
which seem to be likely in Q1'24e already. Both of FERI's largest public
funds (EquityFlex & Optoflex) currently exceed the threshold to be eligible
for performance fees and the record day (March 31st, last day of Q1) is
close. Against this backdrop, management seems to guide conservatively, in
our view.
Mid-term targets confirmed: By Y/E'25e, MLP aims to achieve an EBIT in the
range of € 100-110m, based on its diversified business mix coupled with
continous growth and efficiency gains. This would imply an EBIT 23-'25e
CAGR of 19-25%.
Overall, MLP's stock is too cheap to ignore at current levels, trading at
historically low multiples. The SDAX uplisting on March 18th should also
support the stock's trading volumes and visibility. Hence, we reiterate BUY
and confirm MLP in the NuWay's Alpha List with unchanged PT of € 11.00,
based on FCFY'24e and SOTP.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29099.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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NuWays AG: NFON AG: BUY
Original-Research: NFON AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to NFON AG
Company Name: NFON AG
ISIN: DE000A0N4N52
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 11.70
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY ’23 prelims: Another beat on the bottom-line; chg. est.
Yesterday, NFON released FY ’23 prelims, which show moderate top-line
growth but strong profitability improvements as well as another guidance
beat. The FY24 guidance points towards further ARR growth and an improving
profitability. In detail:
FY recurring revenues came in at € 77.1m (eNuW: € 76.8m), implying a
moderate 4.8% yoy increase at a continuously strong ARR ratio of 93.7%
(+2.6pp yoy). This was mainly based on slightly increased seat base of 656k
(+3.5% yoy) following further customer wins as well as successful
up-selling of premium solutions. Total sales increased by 1.9% yoy to €
82.3m (eNuW: 82.4m).
FY adj. EBITDA increased substantially to € 8.4m (vs € -1.0m in FY ’22),
thus coming in ahead of our estimates (€ 8.0m) as well as consensus (€
7.6m). With this, the company slightly outperformed the already upgraded
guidance range of € 7.8-8.3m. Reported EBITDA came in at € 6.8m (eNuW: €
6.7m) vs € -5.3m in FY ’22. The strong improvement in profitability should
have been mainly due to an improved gross margin (eNuW: +1.9pp yoy) as well
as the effect of the imposed efficiency measures especially in relation to
personnel costs (14% staff reduction after 9M) as well as improved
marketing efficiency (e.g. channel marketing. Notably, NFON will report
positive FCF (€ 1.0m vs eNuW: € -0.2m) for the first time since going
public, prooving that the cash burn of previous years is a thing of the
past now.
FY24 guidance. With the preliminary results, management also put out a
guidance for FY ’24, targeting ARR growth in the mid- to
high-single-digit-% range (eNuW new: 7.3%), an ARR ratio of >90% (eNuW:
94%) as well as an adjusted EBITDA of € 10-12m (eNuW: € 10.7m), implying a
margin of 12.5% at midpoint. Given the scalability of the capital-light
business model with strong recurring revenues and further cost-optimization
potential in the cards (e.g. DTS integration), the new outlook looks
clearly achievable.
In our view, the release fully confirms the success of the ongoing
turnaround. We continue to like the company’s positioning among the
technological leaders amid the structurally growing market for integrated
business communication. Here, especially the historically underpenetrated
German market should offer compelling growth prospects going forward.
Although NFON shares have been on a rise this week, valuation continues to
be attractive, as stock is trading on a mere 1.1x EV/Sales ‘23e. We
reiterate BUY, unchanged PT of € 11.70 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29101.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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